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Royals Sign Matt Duffy To Minor League Deal

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The Royals signed veteran infielder Matt Duffy to a minor league contract Friday, per a team announcement. The TWC Sports client will be invited to Major League Spring Training and compete for a roster spot.

Duffy, 32, spent the 2022 season with the Angels, where he played three different spots around the infield and posted a combined .250/.308/.311 batting line in 247 plate appearances. Duffy held a similar role with the Cubs in 2021 when he batted .287/.357/.381 and played all four infield positions in addition to left field.

Once the starting third baseman for the Giants and a key piece in the trade that sent Matt Moore from Tampa Bay to San Francisco, Duffy’s career has been severely hampered by injuries. An ailing Achilles tendon in 2016 eventually required surgical repair. That, paired with a separate procedure to remove bone spurs from his heel, cost him the entire 2017 season. Duffy returned to play in 132 games with the 2018 Rays, but a hamstring injury cost him the first four months of the 2019 season and ultimately held him to 46 games.

Duffy doesn’t have much power, but he tends to have a low strikeout rate and is capable of playing all over the infield with passable or better defense (generally plus defense at the hot corner). He’ll give the Royals the type of contact-oriented profile that is so often a hallmark of their roster, and he provides some insurance at second base, third base or shortstop in the event of injuries or a trade.

Kansas City has reportedly drawn trade interest in Nicky Lopez — including from the division-rival White Sox — and their top option at third base is Hunter Dozier, whose contract team would surely prefer to move, if at all possible. Twenty-four-year-old Michael Massey is expected to have the opportunity to win the second base job, but Duffy provides a veteran alternative if Massey struggles this spring.

Who Else Could The Royals Trade?

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It’s been a quiet offseason for the Royals on the whole, but they’ve taken up a prominent position on the trade market in the past few days, shipping center fielder Michael A. Taylor to the division-rival Twins in exchange for relief prospects Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz, and flipping infielder Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox in exchange for reliever Josh Taylor the following day.

Those might not be the only trades in store for general manager J.J. Picollo in his first offseason atop the team’s baseball operations hierarchy. The Royals have reportedly discussed infielder Nicky Lopez with the White Sox in what would be a second intra-division swap. More broadly, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that Kansas City still had “a couple more deals” that they’re in the process of “lining up.” With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at some of the names the Royals could potentially ship out in the days and weeks leading up to spring training.

First and foremost, it should be pointed out that both Taylor and Mondesi were a year away from reaching the open market. They represented short-term assets for a Royals team that knows itself to be, at best, a long shot to contend in 2023. Lopez is more of of a mid-range player in terms of remaining club control, as he’s arbitration-eligible through the 2025 season. Presumably, the Royals won’t want to surrender much more team control than that. Players like Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto are all controllable through at least the 2028 season; it’s unlikely the Royals would give much consideration to moving anyone from that group.

Onto some more plausible names, beginning with the focus of yesterday’s White Sox rumors…

Nicky Lopez, 2B/SS | Age: 27 (28 in March) | Contract: Signed for $3.7MM, arb-eligible through 2025

Lopez has been an all-glove player outside a 2021 season that currently looks anomalous in nature. He posted a .300/.365/.378 batting line in 565 plate appearances that season but did so with a .347 batting average on balls in play that’s 53 points higher than his career mark of .294. Lopez is a career .252/.309/.321 hitter in more than 1600 plate appearances. To say he doesn’t hit the ball hard would be an understatement; Lopez ranked 246th of 252 qualified hitters with an 84.9 mph average exit velocity and 250th with a 22.9% hard-hit rate. Statcast ranked him in the third percentile of MLB hitters in terms of “expected” slugging percentage.

That’s not a ringing endorsement of Lopez by any stretch, but he has plenty of positive attributes: namely his bat-to-ball skills and prodigious defensive prowess. Lopez fanned in just 13.1% of his plate appearances in each of the past two seasons, exhibiting strong contact skills. He doesn’t take especially lengthy at-bats (average 3.66 pitcher per plate appearance, compared to the league-average 3.9), but Lopez puts the ball in play and runs fairly well, ranking in the 58th percentile of MLB players in terms of sprint speed, per Statcast.

Defensively, there are few better players in the game — at least in the estimation of Statcast. He’s been an above-average but not elite defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved, but Statcast’s Outs Above Average credits Lopez with excellent marks at second base (12) and particularly at shortstop (31) in his career. The sure-handed Lopez has made just 20 errors as a big leaguer and shown aptitude at both middle infield slots as well as in briefer sessions at the hot corner.

With three more years of club control remaining, there’s no urgency to trade Lopez. However, the Royals have Witt at shortstop and want to give 24-year-old Michael Massey a chance to claim the second base job.

Scott Barlow, RHP | Age: 30 | Contract: Signed for $5.3MM, arb-eligible through 2024

Likely the most popular potential trade chip on the Royals, Barlow has stepped up as the team’s closer and solidified himself as a quality late-game option in Kansas City. He’s pitched matching totals of 74 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, logging a combined 2.30 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate, 43.3% grounder rate, 0.79 HR/9 mark and 40 saves.

Over the past two seasons, Barlow is tied for 22nd among 138 qualified relievers with a 15% swinging-strike rate. His 36.9% chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ties him for 15th in that same set of hurlers. Barlow has also excelled at hitting spots and freezing batters (18.1% called-strike rate), and his combined 33.1% called strike-plus-whiff rate is eighth among MLB relievers since 2021. He limits hard contact extremely well (86.4 mph average exit velocity, 30.3% hard-hit rate in 2022), has plus spin on his heater and generates plus extension with his delivery, per Statcast.

It’s not all roses with Barlow, however. He saw his average fastball dip from 95.3 mph in 2021 to 93.7 mph in 2022. In conjunction, both his strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate saw notable drops. This past season’s 1.09 HR/9 mark was the worst he’s posted in a full season, and (likely because of the drop in strikeouts) Barlow needed a charitable .240 average on balls in play to get to his sparkling 2.18 ERA; that’s 75 points lower than his 2021 mark and 84 points lower than the career mark he carried into 2022. It’s not likely to be repeated, so if the velocity and strikeouts remain at their 2022 levels, Barlow’s ERA is going to be in for quite a bit of regression.

Even with some modest red flags in 2022, Barlow remains a quality reliever who can be controlled at a relatively affordable rate for the next two seasons. If he were a free agent this winter, he’d surely have commanded a good bit more than the $12-14MM or so he’ll command in his final two arbitration seasons. There’s surplus value here, and if the Royals are (understandably) pessimistic about their chances in 2023, Barlow’s trade value will be at its apex either now or this summer.

Taylor Clarke, RHP | Age: 29 (30 in May) | Contract: Signed for $1.15MM, arb-eligible through 2025

Cut loose by the D-backs after the 2021 season, Clarke signed a surprising Major League deal with Kansas City and proved a shrewd pickup, tossing 49 innings with a 4.04 ERA. Clarke logged 10 holds and a trio of saves but worked more in low- and medium-leverage spots than in high-leverage scenarios.

It might be a middle relief profile, but if you squint there’s perhaps a bit more here. Clarke’s 3.9% walk rate was elite, and he posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (23.6%), swinging-strike rate (12.2%) and opponents’ chase rate (36.5%) — all while averaging 95.7 mph on his fastball. Fielding independent metrics felt he was far better than his ERA (3.30 FIP, 3.15 xERA, 3.16 SIERA). He doesn’t immediately jump out as a trade candidate, but three affordable years of control on a hard-throwing reliever who’s trending in the right direction might pique another team’s interest.

Amir Garrett, LHP | Age: 30 (31 in May) | Contract: Signed for $2.65MM, free agent after 2023 season

The Royals picked up Garrett in the March trade that sent lefty Mike Minor to Cincinnati. It didn’t work out particularly well for either side. Garrett pitched 45 1/3 innings and limped to a 4.96 ERA as his longstanding command woes spiked to new heights. Garrett walked 16.3% of his opponents last year, plunked another five batters and threw seven wild pitches. His 94.2 mph average fastball was his lowest mark since moving to the bullpen full-time.

Garrett still whiffed a quarter of his opponents, however, and he somewhat incredibly didn’t give up a home run all season. Unsustainable as that feat may be, its reflective of the fact that Garrett didn’t really get hit hard in Kansas City (88.3 mph exit velo, 30% hard-hit rate). Hard-throwing lefties who can miss bats are always going to find work, and Garrett’s salary is quite affordable.

At his best, Garrett logged a 3.03 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate in 74 1/3 innings from 2019-20. Another club might look at him as a bargain power arm who could be fixed.

Brad Keller, RHP | Age: 27 | Contract: Signed for $5.775MM, free agent after 2023 season

It’s been a rough couple seasons for Keller, who from 2018-20 looked like one of the best Rule 5 Draft picks in recent memory. Keller logged a 3.50 ERA through his first three seasons, going from a long reliever to an entrenched member of the Kansas City rotation. His 2021-22 seasons, however, have gone the opposite direction. Since Opening Day 2021, Keller has a 5.24 ERA in 273 1/3 innings. His walk rate has crept upward, and his once solid abilities to avoid hard contact have seemingly evaporated; Keller’s 1.15 HR/9 mark over the past two seasons is nearly double the 0.60 rate he turned in from 2018-20. His opponents’ barrel and hard-hit rates have exploded from 4.5% and 35.7%, respectively, to 8.7% and 42.8%.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Keller’s only trip to the Major League injured list (Covid-related list excluded) was in 2021 when he missed the final month of the season due to a lat strain. That didn’t seem to linger into the 2022 campaign, as Keller avoided the IL entirely while making 22 starts and another 13 relief appearances. At the very least, he should be viewed as a durable, affordable, innings-eating rental. And, if a team can restore his once-plus slider to its previous form, there’s bargain potential for the righty, who won’t turn 28 until late July.

Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B/OF | Age: 31 | Contract: Guaranteed $17.5MM through 2024, plus $10MM club option for 2025

Dozier’s outstanding 2019 season feels like a distant memory. He slashed .279/.348/.522 with 26 home runs that season, clocking in at 23% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. (If that seems low, recall that 2019 is widely regarded as a season in which MLB juiced the baseballs, resulting in unprecedented levels of offense throughout the game.)

Since that time, Dozier has recorded a tepid .226/.297/.391 batting line. His authoritative batted-ball profile from that 2019 season has wilted and now looks quite pedestrian, and Dozier doesn’t have the defensive skills to offset his now lackluster offense. He’s posted respectable defensive grades at first base but ranks as one of the worst third basemen and right fielders in the sport, according to both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

With $17.5MM in guaranteed money left on his contract, Dozier’s deal is underwater. He could potentially be swapped out for another bad contract, although the Royals typically haven’t made that type of move in the past.

Longer Shots

There are, of course, others who could potentially be of interest to other clubs. The Royals control Brady Singer for another four seasons, and he just enjoyed what looks like a breakout 2022 campaign. Given that glut of remaining club control, however, there’s little reason to entertain the idea of moving Singer unless another team makes a staggering offer. For different reasons, reliever Josh Staumont also seems unlikely to go. The Royals control Staumont through 2025, and from 2020-21 he looked like a long-term piece in the bullpen. Staumont’s walk rate spiked to an awful 16.5% last year, though, and he missed a combined seven weeks with a neck strain and biceps tendinitis. Trading him now would be selling low on a potential power-armed, leverage reliever.

Behind the plate, Salvador Perez is entrenched as the effective captain of the Royals. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote earlier in the offseason that the Royals have no interest in moving Perez, who’s owed $64MM over the next three seasons. That’s not at all surprising, given his status within the organization. Some might naturally think that means young catcher and recent top prospect MJ Melendez could be available, but the Royals have worked Melendez into the outfield and DH mix as well. With six years of club control remaining, there’s little reason to think he’d be available, particularly on the heels of a down season. Melendez isn’t the type of player on whom the Royals would sell low.

Royals, Red Sox Swap Adalberto Mondesi For Josh Taylor

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The Red Sox added some much-needed middle infield help Tuesday, acquiring shortstop Adalberto Mondesi and a player to be named later from the Royals in exchange for left-handed reliever Josh Taylor. Both teams have announced the trade.

In Mondesi, Boston is acquiring an immensely talented 27-year-old infielder — but also one of the most frequently injured players in MLB over the past few seasons. Dating back to the 2018 season, Mondesi has appeared in only 40% of the Royals’ possible games, missing time due to a right shoulder impingement, a groin strain, a pair of left shoulder subluxations, a left hamstring strain, an oblique strain and, most recently, a torn ACL that wiped out his 2022 season. Both the left shoulder injury and ACL tear required surgery.

It’s a daunting list of injuries for Mondesi, but it’s nevertheless difficult not to be enticed by Mondesi’s blend of power, speed and defense. In 1366 Major League plate appearances, Mondesi has 38 home runs, 54 doubles, 20 triples and 133 stolen bases. He’s also amassed 23 Outs Above Average and a 13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating in 2126 career innings at shortstop.

Beyond the injuries, that combination of raw skills is also undercut by an aggressive approach and sub-par bat-to-ball skills that regularly lead to sub-par OBPs. Mondesi has fanned in 30.2% of his plate appearances against just a 4.4% walk rate, and he’s a career .244/.280/.408 hitter in the big leagues. That includes a rough .140/.204/.140 showing in 2022, though that came in a tiny sample of just 54 plate appearances.

Mondesi has tantalized scouts, fans and evaluators for years now, but the Red Sox will be the first team other than the Royals to try to both keep Mondesi healthy and maximize the return on those raw tools. They’re only acquiring a year of his services, as despite his struggles to remain on the field, Mondesi has racked up over five years of Major League service time through his various stints on the injured list. He and the Royals avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3.045MM salary back in December.

Boston’s need for up-the-middle help has skyrocketed over the offseason, with Xander Bogaerts heading to the Padres via free agency and Trevor Story now sidelined for at least a significant portion of the 2023 campaign following internal brace surgery in his right elbow. Boston signed Adam Duvall to play center field, thereby pushing Enrique Hernandez to the middle infield. With Mondesi now on board, he can likely handle the bulk of the workload at shortstop, when healthy, while Hernandez slides over to second base. Christian Arroyo remains on hand as a utility option who could play second base regularly, should Hernandez need to slide over to shortstop in the event of a Mondesi injury.

As for the Royals, the trade of Mondesi represents a disappointing outcome regarding a player they once viewed as a potential foundational piece. The long-term outlook of the infield now contains a new cast of characters, highlighted by Bobby Witt Jr. and defensive standout Nicky Lopez. The trade of Mondesi should open up some additional playing time for 24-year-old Michael Massey, whom the organization hopes can be a prominent piece of the infield for years to come.

Kansas City is acquiring three years of Taylor, an affordable and talented lefty reliever who missed the 2022 season due to a back injury. When he’s been healthy, Taylor has pitched 102 1/3 innings at the MLB level, logging a 3.69 ERA with an impressive 29.4% strikeout rate against a more troubling 10% walk rate. Taylor averages nearly 95 mph on his heater, has average ground-ball tendencies and owns a hefty 15% swinging-strike rate in his career — a possible portent for even more strikeout upside. He’s set to earn $1.025MM in 2023 and is controllable through 2025 via arbitration.

Talented as Taylor is, he’s had his own share of health troubles in his pro career. The lefty missed time with shoulder tendinitis in 2020 before dealing with a back strain late in 2021 and then missing the 2022 season due to a continuation of that back issue. He’s also struggled against right-handed hitters, yielding a .283/.375/.429 batting line as opposed to a .173/.247/.228 slash against lefties.

It’s the second trade in as many days for the Royals, who’ve now trimmed a bit more than $6.5MM off their 2023 payroll by trading Mondesi and center fielder Michael A. Taylor. The newly acquired Josh Taylor and lefty Evan Sisk, acquired in last night’s trade with the Twins, give Kansas City a pair of lefties who could impact the bullpen this season. It also frees up some additional resources for the Royals to continue their reported pursuit of a Zack Greinke reunion or perhaps another bat to add elsewhere in the lineup.

Univision’s Mike Rodriguez first reported that the two sides were getting close to a Mondesi trade. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that a deal sending Mondesi and a PTBNL to the Red Sox in exchange for Taylor was in place (Twitter link).

White Sox Showing Trade Interest In Nicky Lopez

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The White Sox have expressed interest in acquiring Royals infielder Nicky Lopez, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). There’s no indication discussions have gained traction, as Rosenthal notes that Kansas City isn’t anxious to deal the Creighton product.

Lopez, 28 in March, has spent his entire career with the Royals. He reached the majors in 2019, hitting .240/.276/.325 in 103 games as a rookie. He had a similarly rough offensive showing during his second season but earned elite marks for his second base work. Lopez’s +9 defensive runs saved during the shortened season tied for the league lead at the position, earning him another look in 2021.

The left-handed hitter looked to have taken a step forward offensively that season, at least on the surface. He posted a .300/.365/.378 line over 565 trips to the plate, with that offense checking in a hair above league average. That required a lofty .347 batting average on balls in play which he never seemed likely to sustain, and his batted ball metrics weren’t much different than those of his first two seasons. Lopez’s production indeed fell back last season, as he hit .227/.281/.273 without a home run in 480 trips to the plate.

Lopez was one of two hitters (Myles Straw being the other) who tallied 450+ plate appearances without connecting on a home run. He and Straw tied for the game’s second-lowest slugging output, narrowly topping that of Geraldo Perdomo, while ranking in the bottom 10 in hard contact. That lack of power makes him very reliant on turning grounders into singles to drive his offensive profile. That happened in 2021, but his overall .252/.309/.321 career line checks in 27 percentage points below league average as measured by wRC+.

The White Sox, of course, are eying Lopez for other reasons. While he has only slightly above-average pure speed, he’s an instinctive baserunner who has successfully stolen 36 bags in 40 attempts over the past two seasons. That skillset could take on a bit more value in 2023, as the league is introducing limits on the number of pickoff attempts/step-offs a pitcher can deploy in an at-bat.

More importantly, Lopez has shown the potential for excellent infield defense. DRS bizarrely graded him as eight runs below average at second base in 2022, but that’s an anomaly compared to his strong career marks. Statcast estimated him as three runs above average at the keystone and 5 runs above par through 406 innings of shortstop work last season. Both metrics pegged him as a quality defender at each middle infield spot in previous years.

Chicago obviously views Lopez as a potential target for their uncertain second base mix. Tim Anderson and Yoán Moncada will cover the left side of the infield. Second base is far less settled. Romy González and Lenyn Sosa look the present favorites for reps, with veteran utilityman Leury García also in the mix. Lopez doesn’t bring a ton of offensive upside but would raise the floor with his glove and baserunning.

The Royals have a somewhat questionable second base mix of their own, though, apparently lessening their desire to part with Lopez. Michael Massey is the top option after hitting .243/.307/.376 over 52 games as a rookie. That was a fine but hardly overwhelming debut showing, leaving the possibility that K.C. pivots back to Lopez if Massey scuffles. The Royals already thinned out their overall infield depth this morning by dealing Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox.

Lopez and the Royals agreed to a $3.7MM salary to avoid arbitration earlier this offseason. He’s under club control for three years, including the upcoming campaign.

Royals Optimistic About Re-Signing Zack Greinke

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Right-hander Zack Greinke signed with the Royals in 2022, returning to the club that drafted him in 2002 and for whom he pitched from 2004 through 2010. The club has reportedly been interested in bringing him back for 2023 since before the offseason even officially began. There’s now less than three weeks until Spring Training and Greinke is still unsigned but Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports that the club still wants to re-sign him and is confident about their chances of doing so.

Greinke, 39, was once one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, especially in that earlier stint in Kansas City. The highlight of that tenure was a 2009 season where Greinke tossed 229 1/3 innings over 33 starts with a 2.16 ERA. That showing was strong enough for him to win the American League Cy Young award that year. Since then, he’s gone on to pitch for the Brewers, Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Astros before returning to the Royals last season. He’s now tossed over 3,000 innings with a 3.42 ERA over his career.

Though he averaged just under 95 mph on his fastball when he first debuted, he’s gradually transitioned into a soft-tossing control artist. He averaged just over 89 mph on his heater last year, which ranked him 541st out of the 602 pitchers to throw at least 250 pitches, according to Statcast. Despite that diminished velocity, he still found ways to be quite effective on the mound. He made 26 starts and logged 137 frames in 2022, finishing the year with a 3.68 ERA. The pitching-friendly nature of Kauffman Stadium surely helped somewhat, but he also kept his walks down to a tiny 4.6% rate and was in the 60th percentile in terms of missing barrels.

Despite the ongoing interest from the club, a deal has yet to come together, perhaps for financial reasons. Reporting from a couple of weeks ago indicated the Royals were hoping to get Greinke back via some kind of incentive-laden deal, perhaps with a lower guarantee than in 2022, which was for $13MM plus $2MM of incentives. However, it’s possible that the club’s perspective on the financial situation has changed recently. Since that report, the club has agreed to terms with Aroldis Chapman on a deal with a $3.75MM guarantee, but also traded Michael A. Taylor to the Twins for minor leaguers and Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox for Josh Taylor. Michael A. Taylor is going to make $4.5MM this year while Mondesi will make $3.045MM and Josh Taylor $1.025MM. Those moves combined saved the club about $3MM in salary commitments, which they could perhaps then use to help get Greinke to put pen to paper. Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at $103MM, a jump from last year’s Opening Day figure of $95MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

If Greinke comes back to Kansas City for another year, he’ll hopefully provide some stability to a rotation that doesn’t currently have much of it. The club signed 32-year-old Jordan Lyles earlier in the offseason to give them one reliable veteran. Brady Singer should have another rotation spot spoken for after a breakout campaign last year. It seems like Ryan Yarbrough will be given a shot to grab a starting job after signing for a $3MM guarantee, though he spent a decent amount of time as a long reliever with the Rays and could be bumped back to that kind of role again. Brad Keller has lots of starting experience but got bumped to the bullpen in the second half of last year and finished with a 5.09 ERA for the season. Daniel Lynch was a 34th overall selection in the 2018 draft but has a 5.32 ERA for his career so far. It’s a similar story for other high draft picks like Kris Bubic and Jackson Kowar, who have career ERAs of 4.89 and 10.76, respectively.

No other clubs have been previously connected to Greinke this offseason besides the Royals, though Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports today that the Orioles spoke with him at one point. The O’s have been on the hunt for starting pitching all winter and are reportedly still looking for upgrades, though Rosenthal says they’re not confident about landing Greinke.

Twins Acquire Michael A. Taylor From Royals

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The Twins added some outfield depth Monday evening, announcing the acquisition of Michael A. Taylor from the division-rival Royals. Minor league relievers Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz are headed back to Kansas City. Right-hander A.J. Alexy was designated for assignment to clear a spot for Taylor on the 40-man roster.

Taylor has spent the past two years in Kansas City. Initially signed to a one-year, $1.75MM guarantee over the 2020-21 offseason, Taylor impressed Royals’ brass with his excellent outfield defense. The rangy center fielder proved a perfect fit for spacious Kauffman Stadium and an organization that places a premium on defense. He secured his first career Gold Glove in 2021 and earned himself a $9MM extension covering the 2022-23 campaigns late in that season.

During the first season of that new two-year deal, Taylor continued his typically excellent defensive play. He logged just over 1000 innings of center field work, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him as 19 runs better than average at the outfield’s most demanding position. It was the second consecutive year in which DRS graded him at +19 runs, making him far and away the game’s most valuable defensive outfielder by that metric. Since the start of 2021, no other center fielder has tallied more than 21 total DRS — with second-place Myles Straw well behind Taylor’s cumulative +38 mark.

Statcast wasn’t quite as enthusiastic last season, though it also rated him as an above-average center fielder. Its Outs Above Average metric put Taylor at +5 runs last year after rating him 14 runs above average the previous season. Straw narrowly edges him out over the two-year stretch by that measure, but Taylor still checks in second at the position going back to the start of the ’21 season.

Byron Buxton, of course, is one of the few outfielders in the game who’s as good or better than Taylor defensively. He hasn’t the same opportunity to vault to the top of the league in cumulative defensive metrics, however, as injuries have kept him off the field. Buxton has played 955 center field innings over the past two years, fewer than Taylor has reached in each individual season. He’s suffered strains in his right hip in each of the last two seasons and missed a couple months in the second half of 2021 after fracturing his left hand on a hit-by-pitch. Buxton also played through a right knee injury last season, one that required season-ending surgical repair once the Twins fell out of playoff contention.

The All-Star outfielder shows MVP-caliber upside when healthy and will obviously remain Minnesota’s starting center fielder. He’s only once topped 100 games in a season, however, so it’s understandable the Twins want to fortify their depth behind him. Gilberto Celestino was the top reserve option last year, but he hit only .238/.313/.302 with a pair of home runs in 347 trips to the plate. Celestino is a quality defender but not at Taylor’s level. With a minor league option year still remaining, the 23-year-old could open the season in Triple-A St. Paul now that he’s been jumped on the depth chart.

Right fielder Max Kepler is athletic enough to handle center field if needed, though there’s no guarantee he’ll even be on the roster come Opening Day. Minnesota has a number of left-handed hitting outfielders, raising the possibility of them dealing from that group to address other areas like first base or the bullpen. Kepler, as the oldest player in the group and the one with the least amount of remaining club control, would be the most straightforward candidate for such a move.

The Twins traded for an outfielder in spite of that seeming surplus, though Taylor’s right-handed bat will help to balance things. He’s posted below-average overall offensive numbers throughout his career, carrying a .241/.296/.381 line over parts of nine big league seasons. Aside from a solid .271/.320/.486 showing with the Nationals in 2017, he’s been a subpar hitter in every year. That has been the case regardless of pitcher handedness, though he’s predictably been a little better when holding the platoon advantage. Taylor carries a .257/.310/.412 career line against left-handed pitching, compared to a .235/.290/.369 mark against righties.

Strikeouts have been the primary issue for the 31-year-old. He’s punched out in 29.4% of his career trips to the plate while walking at a meager 6.9% rate. To his credit, Taylor did take a bit of a step forward in that department last season. His 23.9% strikeout rate was a personal low, only a couple percentage points higher than the league mark. He seemed to sacrifice a little in the way of impact to do so, with last season’s 32.3% hard contact rate representing the lowest figure of his career.

Taylor obviously won’t be counted upon to provide much of an offensive jolt. He brings some lineup balance, joining Celestino as the only righty-swinging outfielders on the 40-man roster. More importantly, he’ll offer manager Rocco Baldelli a quality defensive option either off the bench or if needed in the event Buxton misses time.

It’s an affordable addition for the Twins, who’ll assume the $4.5MM Taylor’s due during the upcoming season before hitting free agency. That brings Minnesota’s projected payroll to $155MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’ll be a franchise-record mark, with the club opening last year in the $134MM range. The Twins had been fairly quiet this offseason until the calendar flipped to 2023, but they’ve re-signed Carlos Correa, flipped Luis Arraez for Pablo López and prospects and now brought in Taylor within a matter of weeks. Minnesota figures to continue to scour the market for upgrades, at least around the margins, as they battle the Guardians and White Sox in the AL Central.

The Royals, meanwhile, ship away a veteran for future help on the heels of a 65-win season. Taylor looked like one of the better trade candidates on the roster as an impending free agent. Kansas City set a fairly significant ask initially, reportedly targeting right-hander Josh Winder in talks with the Twins. Minnesota balked and the sides eventually pivoted to a pair of minor leaguers.

Sisk, 26 in April, entered the professional ranks as a 16th-round pick of the Cardinals in 2018. The College of Charleston product landed in Minnesota at the 2021 trade deadline in the deal that sent J.A. Happ to St. Louis. A left-handed reliever, Sisk split the season between Double-A Wichita and St. Paul. He threw 63 innings through 50 appearances, posting a brilliant 1.57 ERA while punching out an excellent 29.8% of batters faced. Yet he also walked an alarming 11.4% of opponents and has shown scattershot control throughout his time in the minors.

It’s a similar story with Cruz, a 6’7″ right-hander. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2017, he’s pitched 192 1/3 frames through five minor league seasons. Cruz spent the entire 2022 season in Wichita, showing a similar high-strikeout, high-walk approach as Sisk. The 23-year-old fanned 28% of opponents but walked batters at a near-14% rate. Baseball America wrote last season that Cruz can touch triple-digits and owns an upper-80’s slider that gives him a chance to carve out an MLB bullpen spot if he can better hone the strike-throwing.

Neither Sisk nor Cruz are on the 40-man roster. Both players were left unprotected for and went undrafted in this offseason’s Rule 5 draft. They’ll give the Kansas City player development staff a pair of upper-level bullpen possibilities with the clear ability to miss bats. Both pitchers could get a look at some point in 2023. Cruz would be eligible for minor league free agency if he’s not added to the 40-man roster by next offseason.

Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN first reported the Twins were acquiring Taylor. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported Sisk and Cruz were heading back to Kansas City.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Royals Sign Johan Camargo To Minor League Deal

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The Royals signed Johan Camargo to a minor league, the team announced. Though the team hasn’t announced it, the deal presumably comes with an invite to big league spring training camp.

Camargo, 29, spent the past season with the Phillies, tallying 166 plate appearances over 52 games after initially joining on a minor league pact. He hit three home runs and put up a .237/.297/.316 line.

Camargo had a couple of productive seasons for the Braves after being called up for the first time in 2017. During 2017-18, he hit 23 home runs and put up a wRC+ of 110 over 780 plate appearances. Combined with some strong defense at third base, Camargo put up 4.6 fWAR in those first two seasons in Atlanta and looked to be establishing himself as a valuable contributor for the Braves.

His production fell off considerably from 2019, and since then he’s put up a well below-average wRC+ of just 66, 34 percent below the league average. Camargo was mostly used as a shortstop by the Phillies, and has appeared at other infield and outfield spots over his career, but generally grades out best at third.

 

MLBTR Poll: American League Central Favorite

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The American League Central has had three different winners in the past three years. The Twins took the top spot in both 2019 and the shortened 2020 season but have since seen injuries hamper them significantly in the past two campaigns. A resurgent White Sox club took over in 2021, making the playoffs for a second consecutive year for the first time in franchise history. Many thought those two clubs would be battling it out in 2022 but a young Guardians team pulled off a surprise upset as both the Twins and Sox were snakebit by poor health. During that time, both the Royals and Tigers have been struggling to come out of rebuilds.

With just over three weeks until pitchers and catchers report, how much has the picture changed this offseason? There’s are still a few unsigned free agents and some trades could always change the picture, but let’s take a look at where things stand now.

Cleveland Guardians – 2022 Record: 92-70, projected 2023 fWAR: 45.1

The Guardians were the youngest team in baseball last year and expectations were fairly modest at this point one year ago. However, they snuck up on everyone and took the crown. Many will debate whether it was sustainable or a fluke, but they’ve gone into the offseason in a good position to repeat. Since so much of the roster was young and controllable, their most notable free agents were Austin Hedges and Bryan Shaw. That means the vast majority of the club that won 92 games last year will be back, with plenty more exciting prospects potentially joining them throughout the year.

Since they lost so few players at the end of last year, it’s been a fairly quiet winter for the club so far. However, they did make two notable additions by signing Josh Bell and Mike Zunino. Those two should help bolster the squad, and there will also be reinforcements coming from within. Prospects Brayan Rocchio, George Valera and Logan Allen all reached Triple-A last year and could make their MLB debuts this year, with Tanner Bibee, Daniel Espino and others not far behind.

Chicago White Sox – 2022 Record: 81-81, projected 2023 fWAR: 40.6

The Sox won 93 games in 2021 and were picked by many for a repeat in 2022. Unfortunately, many of their lineup regulars spent significant time on the injured list or disappointed or both. The rotation got huge results from Dylan Cease and Johnny Cueto but the rest of the rotation dealt with various ailments and slumped when on the mound. Manager Tony La Russa also dealt with health issues down the stretch and decided not to return to the dugout for 2023, leading to the hiring of Pedro Grifol.

They lost Cueto in free agency, along with their long-time fan favorite José Abreu. It’s hoped that Andrew Vaughn can come in from the outfield and take over for Abreu at first, which should at least help the team by subtracting his awful defense on the grass. Andrew Benintendi was signed to take over one of the outfield spots in Vaughn’s absence while Mike Clevinger was signed to replace Cueto in the rotation. It’s a fairly similar roster to the ones that won 93 games two years ago and 81 games last year. Better health might be enough to get them back to the 2021 form, but they’ve already lost their closer for an undetermined amount of time with Liam Hendriks starting treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.

Minnesota Twins – 2022 Record: 78-84, projected 2023 fWAR: 42.0

After two straight divisions titles in 2019 and 2020, it’s been two disappointing campaigns in Minnesota. A mountain of injuries kept them below .500 in each of the two most recent campaigns. They were also facing the loss of a superstar this winter as Carlos Correa opted out of his contract and seemed unlikely to return. He then underwent one of the most surprising trips through free agency in recent memory, agreeing to a 13-year deal with the Giants that was later scuttled when the club grew concerned by the long-term health of his right leg. Correa then agreed to a 12-year deal with the Mets, though that agreement was also kiboshed by the medicals. That culminated in Correa coming back to Minnesota on a six-year guarantee with four vesting options.

Getting Correa back is a nice coup for the Twins but it still means they’ve effectively ended up back where they started. Christian Vázquez was signed to replace the departing Gary Sánchez and they’ve also taken a gamble on a Joey Gallo bounceback, but the roster currently looks fairly similar to the one that disappointed last year. Better health alone could get them right back into the race and they hired a new head athletic trainer to try to help in that department. However, it wouldn’t be surprising if injuries were an issue again since many of their key players appear to be prone to IL trips.

Detroit Tigers – 2022 Record: 66-96, projected 2023 fWAR: 30.0

The Tigers were a popular sleeper pick for a postseason berth about this time last year. They had many exciting prospects on the cusp of their debuts, including Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson. They decided the time was right to strike by signing Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez, as well as upgrading via trade. Unfortunately, just about everyone on the roster had a disappointing season, especially on offense. The team hit just .231/.286/.346 for a wRC+ of 81 that was dead last in the majors. Their collective 110 home runs was also last and 17 behind the nearest team.

It seems like 2023 will be about figuring out how to proceed. The club fired general manager Al Avila and brought in Scott Harris as president of baseball operations. Since then, they’ve traded away a couple of relievers in Joe Jiménez and Gregory Soto while also signing a couple of starters to one-year deals in Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen. It seems the all-in approach is on hold until they figure out which parts of their roster to build around.

Kansas City Royals – 2022 Record: 65-97, projected 2023 fWAR: 30.7

The Royals have finished below .500 in each of the past six seasons. Their attempted rebuild was failing to bear fruit, which led to major shakeups this winter. Both manager Mike Matheny and president of baseball operations Dayton Moore were fired, with Matt Quatraro now in the skipper’s chair and J.J. Picollo the chief baseball decision maker. The roster changes have been fairly modest so far this winter, with Zack Greinke the most notable departure, though he’s still a free agent. The additions include Jordan Lyles, Ryan Yarbrough and Aroldis Chapman.

The club has some exciting young players in Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and MJ Melendez, but many of their top draft choices have gone to pitchers that have disappointed thus far. Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar, Alec Marsh, Jonathan Bowlan and Asa Lacy were all taken in the first or second round of the draft and haven’t yet delivered much to be excited about. However, Brady Singer showed in 2022 that the narrative can be flipped. Turning young players into viable big leaguers is key for a club that doesn’t throw around piles of cash in free agency. The recent lack of success in that regard has hurt them and they’ll need to do better somehow.

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While the Tigers and Royals seem likely to be using this year to evaluate younger players, the other three clubs all have a plausible path to winning the division. The Guardians are reigning champs and have added Bell to give them some extra thump. The Sox have stars like Tim Anderson, Luis Robert and Dylan Cease but just need everyone to stay healthy. It’s a similar story for the Twins who have elite players like Correa and Byron Buxton but need to keep them and others off the injured list. The three clubs are separated by just 4.5 projected WAR, according to FanGraphs, which points to an exciting battle in the upcoming campaign.

What do you think? Can the Guardians repeat or will one of their competitors surpass them? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Royals, Padres Among Teams Interested In Aroldis Chapman

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Both the Royals and Padres have some level of interest free-agent lefty Aroldis Chapman, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. This comes just one day after the Marlins were also reported to have interest in the former Yankees, Cubs and Reds closer.

The 2022 season was a rough one for Chapman, who’ll turn 35 next month. The lefty’s fastball, which once averaged better than 101 mph, dropped to a 97.5 mph average in 2022. Simultaneously, his command troubles spike to their worst levels since back in 2011. Chapman’s 26.9% strikeout rate in 2022 was better than league-average but still a career-low by a wide margin, and he walked a massive 17.5% of his opponents, which is the second-worst mark of his career.

Chapman’s 4.46 ERA was passable but nevertheless the highest of his career, and he missed six weeks of the season with an Achilles injury in addition to a roughly three-week absence owing to a leg infection related to a recent tattoo he’d received. He was also left off the Yankees’ postseason roster after skipping a team workout

Kansas City has taken its share of low-cost gambles on former high-profile closers in recent years, inking Trevor Rosenthal prior to the 2020 season and also bringing former K.C. stars Wade Davis and Greg Holland back for buy-low reunion tours. Chapman would be a page out of a similar playbook.

With just an $85MM projected payroll (via Roster Resource) and plenty of uncertainty behind closer Scott Barlow, the Royals represent a sensible enough on-paper fit. They already have three potential southpaws for the ’pen, with Amir Garrett, Anthony Misiewicz and Richard Lovelady on hand, but Misiewicz does have a pair of minor league option years remaining. And, if Chapman were able to bounce back into form, he could potentially be someone they look to flip to another club as the trade deadline draws nearer.

As for the Padres, nary a free agent with any name value passes by without being connected to them. The Friars already have a deep bullpen, headlined by Josh Hader, Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia and a hopefully healthy Drew Pomeranz, but Chapman would add another big arm to the mix. Ownership and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have shown a clear affinity for high-profile stars in recent years, even if some of those name-brand players have been past their peak production.

Then again, they’re also already sitting on a $251MM payroll, and Chapman could push them into the third tier of luxury penalization, given the projected $270.6MM currently on their luxury ledger. In terms of monetary penalization, the jump from adding Chapman likely wouldn’t be large. The Padres would pay a 42% tax on every dollar up to $273MM in luxury obligations, and that number would jump to 75% thereafter. However, presuming Chapman won’t command much more than a few million dollars on a one-year rebound deal, that sum won’t be particularly burdensome.

That said, there’s a greater cost to consider if the Padres want to continue spending in free agency. Exceeding the luxury tax threshold by more than $40MM also results in a team’s top pick in the subsequent year’s draft pushed back by 10 places. Tacking on even a $3MM salary for Chapman would come with something like $4MM in costs between his salary and luxury tax penalties, but would more importantly drop the Padres out of the top 30 in the 2024 draft while also reducing the size of their bonus pool. Further trades, of course, could always alter that calculus, but the Padres were recently reported to be approaching a “self-prescribed” spending limit. It wouldn’t be a surprise to learn that the point at which payroll begins to detrimentally impact future drafts is indeed that limit.

While much of the free-agent market moved at an accelerated pace this offseason, the market for left-handed relievers has been curiously slow. Taylor Rogers took until late December to land his three-year deal with the Giants, and Chapman joins the likes of Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Will Smith, Brad Hand and Zack Britton as a southpaw reliever of note that has yet to sign a team for the 2023 season.

Royals Sought Josh Winder For Michael A. Taylor In Trade Talks With Twins

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The Twins have contacted the Royals this offseason about the possibility of acquiring center fielder Michael A. Taylor, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. However, Hayes adds that Minnesota was “discouraged” by Kansas City’s ask for right-hander Josh Winder in return. There’s no indication conversations between the clubs are still ongoing.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported last month that Kansas City was making Taylor available in trade. Minnesota is the first known team to have checked in with Royals GM J.J. Picollo and his staff regarding the defense-first outfielder. Even if talks didn’t advance especially far, Kansas City’s ask for Winder suggests they’re at least opening conversations regarding Taylor with a lofty goal. That might be especially true for an intra-divisional opponent like the Twins.

Winder, 26, is one of the more highly-regarded pitchers in the Minnesota organization. While he entered pro ball with little fanfare as a 7th-round pick out of VMI, he put himself firmly on the radar coming out of the canceled 2020 minor league season. Winder pushed his average fastball velocity up a few ticks into the mid-90s over the lost year and excelled over 10 starts at Double-A Wichita to start the 2021 campaign. He struggled in a four-start look with Triple-A St. Paul to end that season but nevertheless entered 2022 as one of the better prospects in the Twins’ system.

Baseball America slotted the 6’5″ hurler sixth in the Minnesota system heading into last season, calling him a potential mid-rotation starter. Winder broke camp with the MLB club and made his first 15 big league appearances. He made 11 starts and came out of the bullpen four times, working to a 4.70 ERA through 67 innings. His 16.4% strikeout rate and 35% grounder percentage were each markedly below average, though he continued his career-long track record of pounding the strike zone.

While it wasn’t a resoundingly successful debut effort, Winder showed enough promise to believe he could still play a long-term rotation role in the Twin Cities. He mixed four pitches with regularity, led by a 94 MPH fastball and mid-80s slider. Winder has long had above-average or better control and held his own against left-handed batters last season. Even if he never misses enough bats to reach the mid-rotation upside some prospect evaluators had forecasted, he’s an upper-level depth arm who could carve out a back-of-the-rotation spot as soon as this year.

Minnesota optioned Winder on a couple occasions last year. That exhausted his first of three option years but also means he fell shy of accruing a full year of service time. He’s controllable for at least another six seasons and additional assignments back to St. Paul could push his free agent trajectory back further. He won’t qualify for arbitration until after the 2024 season at the earliest.

It’s not surprising the Twins wouldn’t relinquish six-plus years of Winder’s services for Taylor, who is only under contract for the 2023 campaign. Minnesota could see each of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda depart via free agency next offseason. That’d leave them with Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and unproven younger arms like Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland to vie for rotation spots as things stand. The long-term uncertainty has led the Twins to entertain trade possibilities with the Marlins about potentially adding a controllable starter like Pablo López to the mix.

While one season of Taylor’s services isn’t likely to bring back Winder, he should have a decent amount of appeal on the trade market. The veteran outfielder has had a productive two-year run in K.C. after spending the bulk of his career with the Nationals. Taylor has long been a below-average offensive player thanks to swing-and-miss concerns, but he’s one of the sport’s preeminent outfield defenders.

The 31-year-old (32 in March) has played upwards of 1000 innings in center field in each of the last two years. He’s been a stellar fit for spacious Kauffman Stadium, with Defensive Runs Saved estimating he’s been 19 runs better than an average center fielder in both seasons. His cumulative +38 DRS is head and shoulders above the rest of the league at the position, with Myles Straw checking in second at +21 runs. Statcast has been a little more conservative but still pegged Taylor as +19 runs over the past two seasons, tied with Harrison Bader for second behind Straw.

While whether Taylor’s truly the league’s best defensive outfielder or “merely” in the top handful is debatable, it’s clear he’s an elite gloveman. That drives his value, as he carries a modest .249/.304/.357 line in just under 1000 plate appearances as a Royal. To his credit, Taylor has tamped down on the massive strikeout rates of his time in Washington, with last season’s 23.9% strikeout percentage only a couple points worse than the league average. He’s had to sacrifice some hard contact to put the ball in play more frequently, posting the two lowest isolated power marks of his career the last couple seasons.

Even as a bottom-of-the-lineup type, Taylor’s a valuable player. He’s also making just $4.5MM in 2023, meaning he should be able to fit on virtually any club’s payroll ledger. Minnesota eyed him as a fourth outfielder as potential injury insurance behind Byron Buxton and a right-handed bat to integrate into an outfield that skews very left-handed. Yet he could appeal to other clubs as more of an everyday center field option, particularly given the market scarcity at the position. The free agent center field market is barren enough the Red Sox agreed to terms with Adam Duvall — who’s 34 and has been mostly a corner player throughout his career — to play up the middle. Trade possibilities are similarly sparse, particularly since the Pirates have remained firm on their ask for Bryan Reynolds.

That all makes Taylor a potentially interesting trade candidate. The Royals’ discussions with the Twins suggest they’re not prepared to move him without getting a strong return. That seems unlikely to come from Minnesota, though teams like the Marlins, Dodgers, Rangers and Rockies could check in as they continue to seek out help at the position.

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