Giants Rumors

NL West Notes: Snell, Dodgers, Manaea, Giants, E-Rod

By Mark Polishuk | December 16, 2023 at 11:08am CDT

“The Dodgers are showing interest in seemingly every pitcher but Blake Snell,” Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes, running counter to Heyman’s own report from a month ago suggesting that Los Angeles was one of the teams in on the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. While Heyman didn’t go into specifics about why Snell may no longer be on the Dodgers’ radar, obviously much has changed for L.A. within the last month — namely the Shohei Ohtani signing and (on the more immediate pitching front) the impending trade and extension involving Tyler Glasnow.

Since Los Angeles exceeded the luxury tax last season, the Dodgers had to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft as compensation for Ohtani, who rejected the Angels’ qualifying offer. Snell also rejected a QO from the Padres, so the thought of giving up two more picks to add Snell might simply not be palatable for the Dodgers. While Snell’s market has been a little less clear than other top pitchers on the free agent market, such clubs as the Giants, Red Sox, and Padres have all been linked to Snell at various points, and it remains to be seen what other suitors might emerge once the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Jordan Montgomery are off the board. The Dodgers continue to be involved in the hunt for Yamamoto, and could pursue other trade options beyond Glasnow in order to address the lack of proven depth in their rotation.

Giants Considering Trading From Group Of Young Pitchers

By Darragh McDonald | December 15, 2023 at 8:02pm CDT

The Giants are entertaining the idea of trading from their group of young and controllable pitching prospects, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He says that signing a veteran will make it more likely but it’s a path they are already considering. As for who is in this group that Rosenthal is referring to, he lists lefties Kyle Harrison and Carson Whisenhunt as well as righties Tristan Beck, Keaton Winn, Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong.

The rotation in San Francisco doesn’t look like a strength right now. They recently had Alex Wood and Jakob Junis reach free agency, with Sean Manaea following them by opting out of his contract. The club picked up their option on Alex Cobb, but he’s going to miss at least the first month or so of the season due to hip surgery.

That leaves the club with Logan Webb and a number of questions. Anthony DeSclafani has dealt with ankle, shoulder and elbow injuries over the past two seasons, limiting him 118 2/3 innings of fairly ineffective work. Ross Stripling posted a 5.36 ERA in his 89 innings this year. Harrison debuted in 2023 but has just 34 2/3 innings of major league experience, in which he allowed eight home runs. Winn and Beck also debuted but they also have limited workloads so far and less prospect hype than Harrison.

None of Black, Whisenhunt nor Birdsong are on the 40-man roster, but Black has reached Triple-A and the latter two have made it to the Double-A level. Baseball America currently lists Whisenhunt as the club’s #5 prospect, Black at #8 and Birdsong at #12.

There is a lot of potential in that group but very few sure things. Subtracting someone from the flock would be a risk, but Rosenthal frames it as something that might need to be considered in order to add young, athletic position players.

On the whole, the club’s defense wasn’t strong in 2023. Their collective -15 Defensive Runs Saved and -17.1 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating were both in the bottom third of the league. Outs Above Average was a bit more bullish, giving them a +15, but it’s perhaps worth pointing out that Thairo Estrada alone had a +20. Brandon Crawford, now a free agent, was second on the club with +6.

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi stated at the start of the offseason that upgrading the outfield defense was a priority. Since then, the club signed one of the youngest free agents available in 25-year-old Jung Hoo Lee. Perhaps further outfield changes could be considered, with bat-first guys like Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger still in the mix for playing time.

Zaidi also said that Marco Luciano will have the chance to take over the shortstop position to replace Crawford, but then later said that they would still consider bringing in depth because “it makes sense for us to have some insurance.”

Generally speaking, finding young and athletic players in free agency is hard to do. Since it takes six years of service time to reach the open market, most players don’t get there until close to or after their 30th birthday. With the Giants looking to get younger and more athletic, it makes sense that they jumped at the chance to sign Lee, but he was a unique exception since he was coming over from the Korea Baseball Organization.

If the Giants are looking for another young player to help with their athleticism, free agency offers limited options. That’s particularly true of the shortstop position, where Tim Anderson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are some of the standouts. Teams like the Reds, Twins, Rays, Cardinals and Orioles have lots of position players and could be willing to make a deal, but they would all likely be looking for young and controllable pitching in return.

As with any potential trade scenarios, the chances of something getting done will ultimately depend on the offers coming the other way. It will also depend upon the other paths the Giants pursue. They have been connected to starting pitching upgrades, including reported interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Yariel Rodríguez. They have also had some interest in free agent position players like Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger. There are still many moving pieces but it seems as though there’s a non-zero chance of them making some young and controllable pitchers available, which will surely intrigue many rival clubs around the league.

Giants Sign Jung Hoo Lee To Six-Year Deal

By Darragh McDonald | December 14, 2023 at 8:05pm CDT

December 14: The Giants have officially announced the deal and provided the full salary breakdown. Lee will get a $5MM signing bonus then salaries of $7MM in 2024 $16MM the year after, $22MM in 2026-27 and $20.5MM in each of the final two years if he doesn’t opt out after the fourth.

December 12: The Giants and outfielder Jung Hoo Lee are in agreement on a six-year, $113MM deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. There is an opt-out after four years. In addition to that guarantee, the Giants will owe a posting fee of $18.825MM to the Kiwoom Heroes. Lee is a client of the Boras Corporation.

Lee, 25, has been a highly anticipated free agent for a long time now. It was reported in January that the Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization would post him for MLB clubs after the 2023 campaign. At that point, Lee was coming off an excellent 2022 campaign.

He had always had strong plate discipline but took that part of his game to new heights last year, walking in 10.5% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 5.1% of them. He had never hit more than 15 home runs in a season but managed to tally 23 in that season. He finished with a batting line of .349/.421/.575 for a wRC+ of 175, indicating he was 75 percent better than league average. He also won a Golden Glove award for a fifth straight year and also earned MVP honors.

But his platform year didn’t go quite according to plan. He hit .318/.406/.455 with just six homers in his 86 games in 2023. He injured his left ankle in late July, necessitating season-ending surgery. Nonetheless, he garnered plenty of interest from clubs like the Giants, Padres, Yankees and Mets before being officially posted last week.

The profile was somewhat similar to Masataka Yoshida, who was another contact-over-power player coming from overseas. Yoshida played in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball until signing with the Red Sox for 2023 on a five-year, $90MM deal. Since the NPB is generally considered a notch above the KBO, that could perhaps lead an observer to preferring his track record to Lee’s.

But there are a couple of reasons why Lee might be preferable, one of which is age. The ability to sign an everyday player who is just 25 years of age doesn’t occur very often, and the widespread interest in both Lee and Yoshinobu Yamamoto shows that clubs place value on that youth. Yoshida, by contract, was coming over for his age-29 season. Lee’s opt-out gives him the chance to potentially return to the open market before his 30th birthday, after perhaps having proven himself capable as a major leaguer.

The other thing Lee appears to have over Yoshida is defensive acumen. Yoshida was considered a left-field-only player before signing and was graded poorly for his glovework with Boston, which could lead to him spending more time as a designated hitter over the years. Lee, however, is considered strong in the field. Evaluators are split on whether or not he can stick in center, where he spent most of his time with the Heroes. In Major League Baseball, he could be either a passable center fielder or better suited to a corner, depending on who you ask.

All of the questions make Lee difficult to project and it seems fair to categorize this as a high-risk, high-reward play. As recently pointed out by Eno Sarris of The Athletic, Lee’s batted ball metrics come in a bit below those of Ha-Seong Kim in his last KBO season. Kim struggled in his first MLB season, though eventually adjusted enough to be slightly above average at the plate in each of the past two seasons. MLBTR predicted that Lee would secure a five-year, $50MM deal, but the Giants have soared well past that, more than doubling it. Given their strong investment here, they likely have high confidence in Lee, both in his ability to hit major league pitching and perhaps stick in center field as well.

Just as the offseason was kicking off, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi stated that defensive upgrades in the outfield were a priority for this winter. “We’ll look to add a little bit more speed, a little bit more range to the outfield,” Zaidi said at that time. There were good reasons for such a target. The club’s outfielders posted a collective -13 Outs Above Average in 2023, with only the Cardinals and Rockies coming in below them. Their -7 Defensive Runs Saved and -12.4 Ultimate Zone Rating also fell in the bottom 10 league wide.

The Giants didn’t really have a full-time center fielder in 2023, as no player lined up there for more than 57 games. Each of Luis Matos, Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, Bryce Johnson, Brett Wisely and Wade Meckler got into double digits, while Tyler Fitzgerald, Cal Stevenson, Heliot Ramos, LaMonte Wade Jr. and AJ Pollock had brief stints there. The club is likely hoping that Lee can solidify that position while pushing Yastrzemski into the corner outfield mix alongside guys like Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto. Matos may wind up back in the minors after a mediocre MLB debut in 2023, or perhaps the club would consider putting him on the trading block.

In addition to the $113MM that Lee will receive, the Giants will also owe a posting fee to the Heroes. With any player posted for MLB clubs, the signing team owes a fee to the posting club, relative to the size of the contract. It’s 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. For this deal, the Giants will owe $18.825MM to the Heroes on this deal, meaning they are actually shelling out $131.825MM in order to add Lee to the roster.

In recent years, the Giants have tried to sign star players and have come up just short. They were in the running for Aaron Judge last year before he returned to the Yankees. They had a deal in place with Carlos Correa before they balked at his physical and walked away, leading to him returning to the Twins. They were in the running for Shohei Ohtani this offseason before he signed with the Dodgers.

Lee doesn’t quite match up to those players in terms of star power but this is easily the largest investment of Zaidi’s tenure. The club gave a $90MM extension to Logan Webb but the biggest free agent deals in recent years were $44MM to Carlos Rodón and $43.5MM to Haniger. The Rodón deal had an opt-out after the first year that was eventually triggered, so the club didn’t even pay out that full contract.

The specific contract breakdown hasn’t been reported but that won’t be relevant for the competitive balance tax, which goes by the average annual value of a deal. Roster Resource has already plugged in Lee’s AAV and has the Giants’ CBT number at $189MM. It’s unknown if they are willing to cross the $237MM base threshold next year, but even if not, they could still have around $45MM to pursue upgrades elsewhere on the roster.

For the clubs that missed out on Lee, free agency still features capable center fielders like Cody Bellinger, Harrison Bader, Kevin Kiermaier and Michael A. Taylor, while the trade market could feature players like Dylan Carlson or Manuel Margot.

MLBTR Poll: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

By Anthony Franco | December 13, 2023 at 10:06am CDT

With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, one of the next big questions of the offseason is what awaits NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The three-time defending Sawamura Award winner as Japan’s top pitcher is widely regarded as the best remaining free agent. Hitting the open market at a nearly unprecedented age of 25, he is generally viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yamamoto is coming off a season in which he turned in a 1.21 ERA across 164 innings. He fanned nearly 27% of opposing hitters while issuing walks at a meager 4.4% clip. It was arguably the best season in an illustrious NPB career that has seen the 5’10” righty post a 1.82 ERA in just under 900 innings at baseball’s second-highest level.

The Athletic’s Eno Sarris examined Yamamoto’s repertoire on a pitch-by-pitch basis yesterday. Sarris raved about Yamamoto’s fastball, split, curveball combination and praised the strong command he showed when pitching in the World Baseball Classic last spring. He concurred that Yamamoto projects as a top-flight starter, an assessment shared by evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke at the start of the offseason.

MLBTR predicted Yamamoto would receive a nine-year, $225MM guarantee. Recent indications are that he’ll surpass that mark. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote last week that there’s growing belief within the industry that an MLB team’s expenditure on Yamamoto will top $300MM.

Passan’s suggestion of a $300MM+ investment includes the posting fee which an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes. (MLBTR’s contract prediction was separate from the posting fee.) That’s calculated as 20% of a contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any further spending. A $275MM guarantee for Yamamoto, for example, would come with a $43.125MM posting sum that’d push the overall investment by the MLB club to $318.125MM.

As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees is the only $300MM+ contract for a one-way pitcher in MLB history. There’s a chance Yamamoto becomes the second pitcher to cross that threshold and at least an outside shot that he beats Cole’s guarantee to establish a new high-water mark.

It doesn’t hurt to have essentially every large-market franchise enamored with his upside. Yamamoto has seemingly been the top target for the Mets all offseason. He’s now the #1 priority for the Yankees and Dodgers after their respective splashes for Soto and Ohtani. The Giants and Blue Jays missed on Soto and Ohtani and are still motivated to make significant splashes. San Francisco made one such move yesterday by signing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal, but even after that hefty expenditure the Giants should still have the payroll and luxury-tax space to accommodate Yamamoto.

Yamamoto hosted Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns in Japan last week. The pitcher is now on a North American tour of his own. He reportedly visited the Giants on Sunday and sat down with Yankee officials on Monday. He met with the Dodgers last night and is slated to meet with the Blue Jays and Red Sox later in the week. One or two others could still be involved.

The Buffaloes posted Yamamoto on November 20. That technically gives him until January 4 to sign, although the process isn’t expected to take that long. Both Passan and Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested last week the touted pitcher is likely to sign well before his posting window closes. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has chosen his MLB team before Christmas.

How does the MLBTR readership anticipate Yamamoto’s bidding playing out? Where will he land and how lofty a guarantee will he secure?

Zaidi: Giants Offered Same Deal That Ohtani Accepted From Dodgers

By Anthony Franco | December 12, 2023 at 11:06pm CDT

Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi conducted a conference call with reporters on Tuesday evening. San Francisco’s baseball operations leader touched on the club’s pursuit of new division rival Shohei Ohtani now that he’s free to speak about that process publicly.

Zaidi told the media the Giants offered essentially the same contract terms as Ohtani wound up accepting with the Dodgers. The defending AL MVP is guaranteed $700MM on a 10-year contract, but $680MM of that money is deferred to be paid between 2034-43. MLB calculates the deal’s actual value around $460MM for competitive balance tax purposes. According to Zaidi, the Giants made clear they were willing to do the same thing.

“The proposal that was made was very comparable if not identical to what he wound up agreeing to,” the Giants baseball ops president said (relayed by Janie McCauley of the Associated Press). “We offered what would have been the biggest contract in major league history. I’m guessing we weren’t the only team that did that.”

Zaidi confirmed that Ohtani’s camp also lobbied for a heavily deferred contract in their negotiations (something he reportedly pursued with every team). “It was pitched to us in a similar way, the notion that he’s a player who’s got a ton of endorsement deals, makes a lot of money off the field, and it was sort of a vehicle to create some flexibility for the team — but also get to a really big number on the overall value of the contract, which is important in its own way,” he said (via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle).

“But yeah, I mean, it’s certainly advantageous and you can understand why it was done. … The CBA is very clear there is no maximum or no limitations on deferring salary, that’s very black and white, so I don’t really have editorial comment. It’s something that if it’s pitched to us in a way that we think makes sense for the player and the team we would be open to it, and we certainly were in this case.”

Despite the “comparable if not identical” offer, Ohtani chose the Dodgers. Zaidi suggested that was likely due to a preference for remaining in Southern California, where the superstar has spent his entire career. It also seems fair to presume Ohtani viewed the Dodgers as better positioned than the Giants for sustained competitiveness over the coming decade.

The Giants have moved quickly in the wake of the Ohtani decision. They agreed to terms on a six-year, $113MM deal with KBO star Jung Hoo Lee to man center field. (The team has yet to confirm that deal.) Evenly distributing the salaries on Lee’s contract would bring San Francisco’s 2024 payroll projection to roughly $166MM, per Roster Resource. That’s about $22MM shy of last year’s season-opening payroll. They’re roughly $48MM below next year’s base luxury tax threshold.

There’s clearly still room for further acquisitions. Zaidi reiterated his desire to add another starting pitcher and a complement to 22-year-old Marco Luciano at shortstop (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). San Francisco is among the teams to meet with NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto in recent days.

Giants Met With Yoshinobu Yamamoto

By Steve Adams | December 11, 2023 at 3:38pm CDT

The Giants met with star NPB right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Sunday, reports Buster Olney of ESPN. They’re at least the third big-market club to meet with Yamamoto in just over a week’s time; the Yankees are reportedly meeting with the 25-year-old today, and Mets owner Steve Cohen flew to Japan recently to meet with the reigning three-time NPB MVP and Sawamura Award winner (the latter of which is NPB’s Cy Young equivalent).

Interest in Yamamoto on the Giants’ behalf has been expected all winter. It’s not clear exactly which members of the team brass met with Yamamoto, though it’s fair to presume that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and ownership representatives were present. Half the league (if not more) showed some level of interest when the soon-to-be former Orix Buffaloes ace was posted for MLB clubs. The Giants are one of seven clubs characterized by Will Sammon of The Athletic as a “serious” suitor for Yamamoto, joining the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Blue Jays in that regard (plus another two unnamed teams).

The Dodgers, of course, have since signed Shohei Ohtani to a precedent-shattering $700MM contract. Whether they’d make another commitment that most expect to comfortably exceed $200MM remains to be seen. The Giants and Blue Jays, in particular, are two teams that were deeply involved in the bidding for Ohtani and can now pivot to Yamamoto. The two New York clubs have thus far been the most oft-linked clubs to Yamamoto, though that’s certainly not a clear signal that he’ll end up pitching for either.

Signing Yamamoto would require a significant shift in ideology for a Giants front office that in five years under Farhan Zaidi has not signed a free agent pitcher to a contract of more than three years in length. San Francisco did ink current ace Logan Webb to a five-year contract, but that bought out all of Webb’s would-be arbitration seasons as well. Signing Yamamoto would be another proposition entirely: commanding as many as seven, eight, nine or perhaps even ten years to the ballyhooed righty at market-rate prices.

The Giants have been far more wary of paying pitchers who are already into their 30s — hence the ill-fated decision to let Kevin Gausman sign with the Blue Jays on what now looks like a bargain five-year contract. Yamamoto’s youth makes him an atypical case that San Francisco decision-makers could consider an exception, though they’ll be far from alone in that line of thinking.

Payroll-wise, the Giants are positioned as well — if not better — than any of Yamamoto’s known top suitors. Webb, Mitch Haniger and Taylor Rogers are the only players guaranteed any money beyond the 2024 season, and the latter two are both off the books after the 2025 campaign. (Haniger technically could be sooner; he can opt out of the final year and $15.5MM on his contract next offseason, though he’d need a bounceback campaign to consider doing so.)

The Giants are known to be seeking star-caliber players after missing out on previous targets like Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa and now Ohtani. Zaidi was recently extended through the 2026 season, giving him some additional job security, but he’s also surely aware that in five seasons under his watch, the Giants have missed the postseason and finished .500 or worse on four occasions. The team’s farm system also hasn’t produced any star players during this stretch, although catcher Patrick Bailey and lefty Kyle Harrison certainly showed promise in 2023’s rookie efforts.

San Francisco’s rotation is also in dire need of both innings and upside. The Giants regularly leaned on openers and bullpen games in the season’s final months. Webb and veteran Alex Cobb are the only set-in-stone rotation members, but Cobb is also coming off hip surgery. The aforementioned Harrison will surely get a look but isn’t yet entrenched on the staff after serving up an average of 2.08 homers per nine frames in his rookie campaign. Swingman Ross Stripling could start or work out of the bullpen. Anthony DeSclafani — Zaidi’s largest free-agent pitching deal, at three years and $36MM — is still under contract for the 2024 season but pitched just 99 2/3 innings in 2023 due to injury. Twenty-five-year-old righty Keaton Winn posted a 6.04 ERA in his first five MLB starts this past season.

Yamamoto would be a sensible target for the Giants, although in a free-agent market that’s fairly deep in arms, San Francisco has alternative options if the team feels the bidding gets out of hand. That’s less true in a thin market for position players, where the Giants also figure to be active. Zaidi has spoken about adding to his outfield in particular, with Cody Bellinger standing as an oft-speculated fit for the Giants.

Whoever ultimately signs Yamamoto will owe his former club a posting/release fee equivalent to the sum of 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. A $225MM investment in Yamamoto, for instance, would cost the signing club an additional $35.625MM. Future money paid out via incentives or contractual options is also subject to that 15% rate. Yamamoto has won three straight Sawamura Awards in Japan and just posted a career-best 1.21 ERA in 2023. He’s logged a sub-2.00 ERA in four of his past five seasons while punching out better than 27% of his opponents against a tidy 5.7% walk rate.

NL West Notes: Lee, Padres, Soto, Giants, Rockies

By Mark Polishuk | December 10, 2023 at 10:09pm CDT

The Padres’ interest in Jung Hoo Lee is well known, though the large amount of interest in Lee’s services threatens to push him out of San Diego’s price range, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes. MLBTR projected five years and $50MM for Lee in his first Major League contract as he made the jump from the KBO League, yet Lin hears that the the 25-year-old outfielder could land closer to $90MM, without counting the posting fee a team would additionally owe to the Kiwoom Heroes, Lee’s KBO League club.

Finances have been an big subplot of the Padres’ offseason, as the team’s debt-driven need to reduce payroll has already resulted in Juan Soto’s trade to the Yankees, as well as the seeming unlikelihood of a reunion with such high-profile free agents as Blake Snell, Josh Hader, or Seth Lugo (and Nick Martinez has already signed with the Reds). San Diego has roughly $155.7MM on the books for 2024 according to Roster Resource, yet with several roster holes to fill and a rough payroll limit of around $200MM, spending more than expected on Lee will make it more difficult for the Padres to properly address every need. Lee’s agent Scott Boras isn’t in the habit of giving pseudo-hometown discounts, even if San Diego holds particular appeal to Lee since he is best friends with Ha-Seong Kim.

Roki Sasaki Asks To Be Posted For MLB Teams, Chiba Lotte Marines Likely To Deny Request

By Mark Polishuk | December 9, 2023 at 1:32pm CDT

Japanese pitching sensation Roki Sasaki has asked the Chiba Lotte Marines to make him available to MLB teams via the posting system this winter, according to Sponichi Annex (Japanese language link from Yahoo Japan). Nippon Professional Baseball teams have until December 15 to post players for possible moves to Major League Baseball in advance of the 2024 season, and this brief timeline alone makes it highly unlikely that the Marines will grant Sasaki’s request.

In the broader picture, it is quite rare for Japanese players to ask to be posted so early in their careers, as the 22-year-old Sasaki has only played three seasons in NPB. As per MLB’s posting rules, players must be at least 25 years and have at least six pro seasons under their belt in order to receive anything more than a minor league contract. Big league clubs could also only pay such players money from their international bonus pools, and with this year’s international signing window yet to open on January 15, teams have long since committed the bulk of their pool money to prospects. Shohei Ohtani faced these restrictions when he came to the majors at age 23, and thus received only a minors deal from the Angels and a $2.3MM signing bonus.

Jorge Castillo and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times profiled Sasaki last month, noting that Sasaki’s contract with the Marines “is thought to” have an escape clause that would allow the righty to leave for the majors at any time. Ohtani enacted such a clause in 2017, though Ohtani had played five seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.

The Sponichi article didn’t give any mention about such a contractual opt-out, though the unusual timing of Sasaki’s request perhaps does indicate that he has some leverage to take this rather immediate plunge into the posting system. Castillo/Harris wrote that the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants have all “intensely scouted” Sasaki in Japan, and at one point, the Dodgers thought that Sasaki would be available as early as this offseason.

Sasaki wouldn’t achieve full free agency until he has nine seasons of service time, and in general, NPB teams don’t post players early until they’re a year or two away from that nine-season threshold. For instance, Yoshinobu Yamamoto played seven seasons with the Orix Buffaloes before the Buffaloes agreed to post the star righty this winter, and the 25-year-old Yamamoto now looks poised to command a contract well north of $200MM.

Yamamoto’s combination of youth and skill has all but guaranteed a huge contract, yet even his number could pale in comparison to what Sasaki might receive. Though he would seemingly be limited to a minor league deal at first and would have to wait at least a few seasons into an MLB career to sign an extension without drawing attention from the league office, that might be a risk Sasaki is willing to take given the potential huge payoff down the road. In the interim, he won’t be lacking in compensation, since a jump to the majors would surely boost his endorsement appeal.

Over 283 2/3 career innings with the Marines, Sasaki has a 2.00 ERA, 34.4% strikeout rate, and 5.12% walk rate, and these video-game numbers are only part of Sasaki’s burgeoning legend. His fastball routinely sits in the upper-90s and has topped out at 102.5mph, and his forkball is arguably an even deadlier pitch. Sasaki’s pitched well for Japan’s gold medal-winning team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and he has two NPB All-Star appearances on his resume. Most famously, Sasaki came within an inning of back-to-back perfect games — he tossed a perfecto against the Buffaloes in April 2022 that saw him record 13 straight strikeouts amidst an NPB-record 19 K’s in his masterpiece of a start. Incredibly, Sasaki followed that up with eight perfect innings in his next outing before being pulled before the start of the ninth due to pitch count reasons (102 pitches).

The Marines’ desire to preserve Sasaki’s arm and overall health has been a main storyline of his career. He was the first overall pick of the 2019 NPB draft, yet he didn’t make his debut with Chiba until May 2021, as the team wanted to ease his development into pro ball. Sasaki missed about six weeks this season due to an oblique strain, limiting him to 91 innings for the 2023 campaign. As MLB’s Dai Takegami Podziewski noted in his last installment of the NPB Players To Watch feature, durability is basically the last question Sasaki has to really answer about his long-term potential, and the righty’s 6’4″, 203-pound frame would suggest that he is perhaps built to hold up under the larger workloads faced by Major League pitchers.

While it remains to be seen if Sasaki will actually be able to enter the 2023-24 free agent market, it would obviously be a game changer in a winter that already has a lot of high-end starters still on the board. If nothing else, Sasaki’s request might well be setting a stage for a posting next winter, when he could join another loaded pitching class that might include Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and possibly even Gerrit Cole if the Yankees don’t enact a contract clause preventing Cole from opting out.

Giants Agree To Deals With Daulton Jefferies, Yoshi Tsutsugo

By Anthony Franco | December 8, 2023 at 7:24pm CDT

Daulton Jefferies is in agreement on a deal with the Giants, the right-hander announced this morning. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle confirms it’s a minor league pact with an invitation to Spring Training. Additionally, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that first baseman Yoshi Tsutsugo has agreed to terms with San Francisco (X link). It seems fair to presume that’s also a minor league deal with a non-roster invite.

Jefferies sticks in the Bay Area. A Berkeley product, he was selected by the A’s with the 37th pick of the 2016 draft. Jefferies made his big league debut with one appearance in 2020. He pitched five times the following season and on eight occasions in 2022. In 14 career outings (10 starts), he has worked to a 5.75 ERA through 56 1/3 frames. He has a middling 15.2% strikeout rate while walking fewer than 6% of opponents.

The 28-year-old has lost most of the last two seasons to injury. He underwent thoracic outlet surgery in June 2022 before requiring a Tommy John procedure that September. Oakland ran him through waivers and off the 40-man roster last offseason. Jefferies missed all of last season and elected minor league free agency at year’s end. He’ll get a look in camp with former Oakland skipper Bob Melvin. Jefferies still has an option remaining, so the Giants could freely send him to Triple-A even if he earns a 40-man roster spot.

Tsutsugo, who recently turned 32, spent time in the San Francisco system this year. He signed with the Giants out of independent ball in August, playing in 17 games between Double-A and Triple-A. Tsutsugo, who hit .197/.291/.339 over 640 big league plate appearances from 2020-22, had posted a .249/.380/.432 line with Texas’ top minor league affiliate in the first half of last season.

Shohei Ohtani Decision Reportedly “Imminent”

By Steve Adams | December 8, 2023 at 8:15am CDT

Shohei Ohtani’s cloak-and-dagger free agent saga has held up the top end of the free-agent and trade markets alike through the offseason’s first several weeks, but a decision from the two-time AL MVP is “imminent” and could be announced at some point today, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. In a segment on MLB Network (video link), Morosi adds that the Blue Jays have improved their standing in the Ohtani derby this week and are a finalist alongside the Dodgers, at the very least.

At last check, the Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Angels and Cubs were all involved in the bidding. The possibility of a dark-horse suitor that’s flown under the radar to this point can’t be ruled out, given the secretive nature of Ohtani’s free agency. Anecdotally, it’s of note that Friday marks six years, to the day, since Ohtani made his last free-agent decision, when he signed with the Angels.

Ohtani and the Blue Jays are believed to have met at the team’s spring training complex in Florida this week. Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts acknowledged during the Winter Meetings that his club had met with Ohtani and considered him their “top priority,” prompting some hand-wringing among Dodger fans that even such a basic acknowledgment of the obvious might work to their detriment. The Giants are reported to have met with Ohtani last weekend at Oracle Park. The incumbent Angels, of course, are already a known and familiar commodity for Ohtani. The Cubs’ status in the bidding remains least certain, though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer publicly denied reports this week suggesting that his team’s optimism regarding Ohtani had waned.

Bidding on Ohtani was widely expected to eclipse $500MM, even after the slugger/ace underwent elbow surgery following the 2023 season. He’s not expected to pitch in 2024 but is on track to be ready to be in his next team’s Opening Day lineup as a designated hitter. There’s been some speculation this week that the bidding could push closer to a staggering $600MM. It’s heavily speculative at this juncture, given the by-design quiet nature of Ohtani’s foray into the open market.

Ohtani, 29, will be a transformative presence in any lineup he joins. A career .274/.366/.556 hitter, he’s stepped up his offensive game in recent seasons. He’s not quite on the same level as Aaron Judge or longtime teammate Mike Trout in terms of per-game production, but Ohtani has also been in the lineup more than both players over the past three seasons, even after missing the final several weeks of the ’23 campaign due to that elbow injury and an oblique strain. Since 2021, only Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Matt Olson have hit more than Ohtani’s 124 home runs. Only Judge, Trout and Yordan Alvarez have topped Ohtani’s massive 157 wRC+ (indicating that he’s been 57% better than a league average hitter after weighting for home park and league run-scoring environment). In that time, Ohtani carries a .277/.379/.585 batting line.

That’s only half the story with Ohtani, who finished fourth in 2022 American League Cy Young voting and has emerged as a legitimate top-of-the-rotation starter — when healthy. That’s a massive caveat in light of an earlier Tommy John surgery and now a second elbow procedure (details of which remain nebulous to public onlookers). But over the past three seasons, Ohtani has pitched 428 1/3 innings 2.84 ERA ball with an elite 31.4% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate.

If Ohtani is able to return to those heights following a second elbow surgery, there’s a very feasible path to him simultaneously winning a league MVP and Cy Young Award. His ability to regain that form, of course, is the single largest question mark surrounding him. There’s no doubt that Ohtani will pitch again in some capacity, but his expected level of success will remain a talking point until he actually takes the mound. At this point, he’s proven that it’s foolish to bet against him — but even if Ohtani can’t recapture that ace form, there’s plenty of value in him beyond that of a pure designated hitter. If he could pitch even as a capable mid-rotation starter or perhaps effective reliever, that’d be immensely valuable in and of itself.

And, even if Ohtani is simply never able to regain his form as a viable MLB pitcher, there’s no reason to think he’d “only” be a designated hitter. He’s played in the outfield both in Japan and (far more briefly) with the Angels. Ohtani still possesses above-average sprint speed, per Statcast, and there’s some reason to think he could improve upon last year’s 63rd-percentile ranking if he were focusing only on hitting and playing the outfield. He’s swiped 86 bases in his career, including a 20-for-26 showing this past season. The arm strength is clearly there, as is the raw athleticism needed to handle the position. At that point, Ohtani could be viewed in a somewhat comparable light to that of Judge, who signed a nine-year, $360MM contract when he was two years older than Ohtani is at present.

The off-field value associated with Ohtani can’t be discounted, either. Any team signing him will be tapping into a global fanbase that’ll boost merchandise sales, ticket sales, television ratings and more. Ohtani’s broad-reaching brand won’t pay for his salary on its own, but it’s a clear factor that any interested club will be weighing and attempting to contextualize/value when putting forth its best offer.

With a decision looming on Ohtani, let’s open it up for MLBTR readers with a poll:

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