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Braves Have Opened Extension Talks With Dansby Swanson

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The Braves have opened extension talks with Dansby Swanson, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. At this point, there’s nothing to indicate that talks have moved beyond the initial stages, though Heyman adds that there is “less whispered negativity” with these discussions than there was with Freddie Freeman a year ago. Swanson is represented by Excel Sports Management, who also represented Freeman until he reportedly dismissed them in June.

How far the talks with Swanson have progressed isn’t clear, though it’s noteworthy that they have begun, with Swanson just a few months away from reaching free agency. The Braves have been the most aggressive team in baseball when it comes to locking up their star players. All of Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Michael Harris II have agreed to lengthy pacts in recent years, with those latter two just coming in the past month.

However, Swanson’s case is a bit different than those other players, as none of them were on the verge of reaching the open market. The 28-year-old is just a few months away from having multiple teams bidding for his services, which likely means it will take a significant payout to prevent him from taking that opportunity. Furthermore, the timing of his free agency could hardly be any better from his perspective, since he’s having easily the best season of his career.

Swanson has hit .292/.348/.455 this season, coming into tonight’s action. That offensive production is 22% better than league average, as evidenced by his 122 wRC+. Outside of a cup of coffee in his debut season and a strong showing in the shortened 2020 campaign, his previous high in that department was the 98 wRC+ he registered last year. He’s also added 15 steals already, eclipsing his previous personal best of 10.

He seems to have taken steps forward on the defensive side of things as well, depending on which defensive metric you trust the most. Outs Above Average is the most bullish, giving Swanson 14 on the year already, doubling his previous personal best, which was a seven back in 2018. Runs Above Average is also impressed, having never given him better than five but setting him at 10 so far this season. Defensive Runs Saved also likes his work, valuing him at six so far, on pace to get near his previous high of nine. Ultimate Zone Rating appears to be the outlier here, rating Swanson’s glove work at -0.7 after having him at 1.1 last season.

All told, FanGraphs calculates Swanson to have been worth 5.1 wins above replacement so far this year, easily eclipsing his personal record, the 3.4 he accrued last year. That total is also good enough for Swanson to be seventh in the majors among position players.

If an extension were not reached, Swanson would surely find no shortage of interest in his services based on this excellent platform he’s putting together. This coming offseason figures to feature another strong class of shortstops, with Swanson likely to be joined by Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner at the top of it. In the most recent edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, all four shortstops cracked the list, with Swanson taking the seventh slot.

Whether the Braves can tempt Swanson from forgoing that opportunity remains to be seen. The aforementioned Freddie Freeman was in a similar position at this point last year, with many around the industry assuming the two sides would reunite. That didn’t end up happening, with the Braves instead acquiring Matt Olson to play first base and Freeman joining the Dodgers. If the Swanson situation were to go a different route and he did end up agreeing to stay, Atlanta could pencil him into the infield next to Olson, Riley and Albies for years to come.

Braves Acquire Tyler White From Brewers

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The Braves have acquired first baseman Tyler White from the Brewers in exchange for cash, as first indicated on the MLB.com transactions log. White was eligible to be traded even after the Aug. 2 trade deadline passed because he hasn’t been on the 40-man roster at any point this season.

[Related: How to Acquire Players after the Trade Deadline]

The 31-year-old White is a veteran of four Major League seasons, mostly coming as a member of the Astros. From 2016-19, White hit .236/.315/.409 with 26 home runs, 48 doubles and three triples in a total of 859 plate appearances between Houston and a much briefer 2019 stint with the Dodgers.

White was very briefly with the KBO’s SK Wyverns (now the SSG Landers) down the stretch in 2020, though he appeared in just nine games there. He returned to North American ball in 2021, hitting at a .292/.424/.476 clip in 443 plate appearances with the Blue Jays’ Triple-A affiliate in Buffalo. He didn’t get a call to the big leagues, however, and White latched on with the Brewers on a minor league pact over the winter. So far in 2022, he’s posted a .230/.357/.431 batting line in 325 plate appearances for Milwaukee’s top affiliate in Nashville.

It’s a depth move for a Braves club that just designated for assignment and released a similar journeyman first baseman, Mike Ford. White will get regular or semi-regular at-bats in Triple-A Gwinnett between first base and designated hitter, and he’ll serve as an insurance policy against an injury to Matt Olson. It’s possible that he could work his way into consideration for a September promotion once teams are granted a pair of extra roster spots, but for now he’ll head to Gwinnett.

Braves, Michael Harris II Agree To Eight-Year Extension

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The Braves have moved swiftly to lock up yet another budding star on a contract extension, announcing on Tuesday night that they’ve signed rookie center fielder Michael Harris II to an eight-year, $72MM contract spanning the 2023-30 seasons. The contract contains club options for the 2031 and 2032 seasons as well.

Michael Harris II | Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Braves, one of the few Major League teams to publicly disclose terms of their contracts, added that Harris will earn $5MM per season in 2023-24, $8MM annually in 2025-26, $9MM in 2027, $10MM annually from 2028-29, and $12MM in 2030. The 2031 option is valued at $15MM, and the 2032 option is valued at $20MM. Both come with $5MM buyouts.

Harris, a frontrunner to finish in the top two of National League Rookie of the Year voting — perhaps alongside teammate Spencer Strider — would’ve been a free agent after either the 2027 (with a top-two Rookie of the Year finish) or after the 2028 season but will instead forgo a trip to the open market in his mid-20s to sign a long-term pact with his hometown team.

The eight-year pact continues an aggressive trend from an Atlanta front office that has been unafraid to pay sizable sums to its young stars early in their careers. Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (eight years, $100MM) and second baseman Ozzie Albies (seven years, $35MM) both signed early, very club-friendly extensions that included a pair of club options beyond their guaranteed years. Acuna’s deal, like the one being discussed with Harris, was agreed upon before he even had a full year of Major League service time.

More recently, the Braves inked Matt Olson to an eight-year, $168MM extension the day after acquiring him in a five-player blockbuster with the A’s. And, this past summer, while so many teams were focused on the trade deadline in late July, the Braves hammered out a ten-year, $212MM extension for third baseman Austin Riley (before also making a handful of trades themselves, of course).

Harris, 21, was the No. 98 overall pick in the 2019 draft and bolstered his prospect stock with a torrid race through the minors that culminated in him skipping Triple-A entirely earlier this year. Despite being promoted right from Double-A, Harris hasn’t missed a beat in the Majors. He’s logged 268 plate appearances in the Majors, tonight’s performance included, and turned in a robust .287/.325/.500 batting line with a dozen homers, 14 doubles, two triples and 13 steals (in 13 tries). Couple that production with plus center field defense (5 Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average alike), and it’s easy to see how the Braves have quickly become enamored of the dynamic young outfielder.

As with any extension for a young player, there’s certainly some risk to both sides. Harris has but 71 games of big league experience under his belt with no Triple-A seasoning of which to speak. In fact, he played only 43 games in Double-A prior to his promotion. And, as good as he’s been thus far in his big league career, the Braves would surely like to see him improve upon a dismal 3.7% walk rate. He’s currently sporting a .345 average on balls in play that’ll likely drop a bit, although players with Harris’ type of speed (94th percentile sprint speed, per Statcast) can often sustain BABIP numbers higher than the league average.

The risk for Harris, meanwhile, is the same that teammates such as Acuna and Albies took when inking their own deals. He’s locking in a life-changing sum of money, to be sure, but a top-two finish in Rookie of the Year voting would have put Harris on track for arbitration following the 2024 season (or, absent that top-two finish, after the 2025 campaign). As things stand, he could’ve either been a free agent following the 2027 season, heading into his age-27 season, or following the 2028 campaign (when he’d be heading into his age-28 season). Free agents who are that young are the sorts who tend to land decade-long contracts north of $200MM or even $300MM.

Certainly, we can’t know whether Harris will sustain his current pace for a full six years. We see players debut with great fanfare and fade from the spotlight somewhat regularly, and injuries can always impact a player’s development and open-market earning power. Harris is surely aware that any early-career extension like this has the potential to turn into an unmitigated bargain for the team, just as the Braves are aware that Harris isn’t necessarily a lock to cement himself among the game’s elite young outfielders. That’s the balance all teams and players strive to strike in early extensions like this, and it appears that in this instance, the Braves and Harris found a sweet spot that’ll clock in a ways short of the Acuna deal but line up nicely with the recent eight-year, $70MM extension signed by Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes.

While these contracts tend to be bargains of significant nature when they hit — as they’ve done near universally for the Braves to this point — it’s also worth pointing out that they do inflate a team’s luxury-tax ledger earlier than might otherwise be the case. A $72MM contract for Harris will give him an immediate $9MM luxury hit (the contract’s average annual value) when he’d otherwise have counted for less than $1MM against the tax line.

Atlanta has a $207MM luxury payroll this year and $128MM already counting against next year’s ledger, and that’s before including a Harris contract or arbitration raises for any of Max Fried, A.J. Minter, Mike Soroka or Tyler Matzek (plus any free-agent or trade additions this winter). The extensions are still likely to be cost-effective moves for the team in the long run, but the Braves will have about $50MM of luxury commitments to Acuna, Albies, Riley and Harris alone next season if this deal indeed goes through.

None of that should serve as a deterrent, of course. Harris looks the part of a budding young star, and pairing him alongside Acuna in the outfield and alongside Acuna, Riley and Albies in the lineup for the foreseeable future gives the Braves the upside of an explosive quartet being controlled at a mere fraction of market value. The reduced nature of their salaries — relative to market pricing — ought to allow the team to continue to invest in free agents to supplement the core, keeping the Braves well positioned to contend in the National League East for the foreseeable future. That Harris grew up in the Atlanta area and attended high school just 37 miles south of Truist Park only makes him all the more marketable to the fan base, and surely only makes tonight’s deal sweeter for the latest homegrown, hometown star in Atlanta.

FanSided’s Robert Murray first reported that the two sides were “deep” in talks on an eight-year deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the contract would contain at least one option and would be valued at $72MM (Twitter links).

Braves Claim Rylan Bannon, Designate Travis Demeritte

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The Braves announced they’ve claimed third baseman/second baseman Rylan Bannon off waivers from the Dodgers and optioned him to Triple-A Gwinnett. Corner outfielder Travis Demeritte has been designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Bannon has been shuffled around the league in recent weeks. He’s gone from the Orioles to the Dodgers and now to Atlanta via waivers since August 8. The 26-year-old only has four big league games under his belt, but he’s long been regarded as a solid prospect and has a decent track record in the minors. He’s spent the majority of this season with the Orioles top affiliate in Norfolk, hitting .229/.347/.407 across 326 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter has connected on 11 home runs and 14 doubles while drawing walks at a robust 13.8% clip, although he’s also striking out at an elevated 26.7% rate.

This is the second of three minor league option years for Bannon, who can therefore bounce between the big leagues and Triple-A for the next season and a half. Atlanta typically has an excellent infield of Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley, with top prospect Vaughn Grissom getting the recent playing time at second base while Albies mends a broken foot. There’s not much of a path to immediate playing time for Bannon, but he’ll serve as an upper level depth option in Gwinnett.

Demeritte, 27, has appeared at the MLB level in three of the past four seasons. A former Rangers first-round pick, he spent time in the Atlanta system before being dealt to the Tigers in 2019. He made his major league debut with Detroit and spent two seasons there before returning to the Braves as a waiver claim in 2021. Atlanta passed him through outright waivers and kept him in Triple-A last year, but they selected him onto the 40-man roster at the end of the season to keep him from qualifying for minor league free agency.

He held that 40-man spot throughout the winter and has appeared in 26 big league games this season, hitting .213/.260/.337. Demeritte spent the majority of the year in Gwinnett, struggling to a .207/.291/.357 line while striking out in 34.2% of his plate appearances. Swing-and-miss has been an issue throughout his big league time as well, as Demeritte has fanned in 34.6% of his 315 trips to the plate in the majors. He owns a .216/.277/.328 career line at the highest level.

The Braves will place Demeritte on outright or release waivers within the next few days. Having previously been outrighted in his career, he’d have the right to elect free agency if he goes unclaimed.

Braves Recall Freddy Tarnok, Select Ryan Goins

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The Braves announced a host of roster moves this morning. Pitching prospect Freddy Tarnok has been recalled, while the club selected the contract of infielder Ryan Goins. Catcher Chadwick Tromp has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left quad strain, while reliever Danny Young was designated for assignment.

Tarnok, 23, is headed to the big leagues for the first time. A third-round pick out of a Florida high school in 2017, the 6’3″ hurler has spent the past few seasons as one of the organization’s more interesting pitching prospects. He’s split the 2022 campaign between Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Gwinnett, starting all 20 of his appearances. Between the two levels, he owns a 3.63 ERA over 89 1/3 innings, striking out an impressive 27% of batters faced against a slightly elevated but manageable 9.1% walk rate.

Baseball America recently slotted Tarnok as the #8 prospect in the Atlanta farm system. The outlet praised his 95-98 MPH heater and a downer curveball that could be a plus offering. He also mixes in a slider and changeup and has solid control, giving him an opportunity to carve out a role in the starting rotation. Tarnok, who was added to the 40-man roster last winter to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft, is in his first of three minor league option years and could bounce on and off the active roster.

That’s not the case for Goins, who is back in the big leagues for the first time in two years. The 34-year-old utilityman signed a minor league contract with the Braves over the offseason. He’s only hitting .221/.250/.272 over 250 plate appearances with Gwinnett, but he’s a quality defender who can cover all around the infield. Atlanta placed Ehire Adrianza on the 10-day injured due to a non-COVID viral infection earlier this week, so Goins will step into the utility role.

A left-handed hitter, Goins has appeared in eight previous big league seasons. The bulk of that time came with the Blue Jays, where current Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos served as general manager for a while. He’s a .228/.278/.333 career hitter, but he’s rated as a plus defensive second baseman throughout his time in the majors.

The Braves just nabbed Young off waivers from the Mariners last week. The 28-year-old made his only appearance in an Atlanta uniform last night, tossing 2 2/3 innings of mop-up work in a blowout win over the Mets. He’s up to 6 1/3 innings of three-run ball between Seattle and Atlanta, striking out six with a couple of walks but averaging only 88.7 MPH on his sinker. The lack of velocity hasn’t stopped the University of Florida product from posting strong numbers in Triple-A this year. He’s combined for 29 2/3 innings of 3.64 ERA ball, striking out a stellar 35.2% of opponents against an 8% walk rate.

Young will find himself back on waivers over the next couple days. Between his Triple-A production and all three remaining minor league option years, he could draw some interest from teams seeking left-handed relief depth.

Braves Place Max Fried On Concussion-Related Injured List

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The Braves placed left-hander Max Fried on the seven-day injured list for concussion-related injuries.  Righty Jay Jackson was called up from Triple-A to take Fried’s spot on the active roster.

Fried’s placement is backdated to August 8, two days after the southpaw took an awkward fall while attempting a fielding play in Atlanta’s 6-2 loss to the Mets.  Fried was holding his head in the aftermath of the play but remained in the game and tossed three more innings.

After a few days of further evaluation, it appears as though the Braves have decided that Fried needs some more time to recover.  He’ll miss his next start but hopefully no more, though it is hard to predict when concussion symptoms could fully dissipate.

Fried is in the midst of another excellent season, with a 2.60 ERA/3.36 SIERA over 22 starts and 138 1/3 innings.  Despite a middling strikeout rate, Fried has been excellent at inducing grounders (50.5% groundball rate) and soft contact, and his 4.5% walk rate is among the best in the game.  The 28-year-old has emerged as a front-of-the-rotation ace, and his health is key to Atlanta’s chance of repeating as World Series champions.

Since today is an off-day for the Braves, the team has a bit of flexibility in aligning its rotation in Fried’s absence.  The left-hander was scheduled to start against the Marlins on Friday, but Atlanta could simply bump the other starters up one day and hope that Fried is able to return before his next turn in the rotation.  The recently-optioned Ian Anderson is likely the first choice for a spot start should Fried have to miss more time.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: National League

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In the past two days, MLBTR has taken a look at how players with contractual options could impact the upcoming free agent class. We looked at players with vesting provisions on Tuesday before turning our attention to American League players under control via team options yesterday. Today, we’ll check in on their National League counterparts.

Braves

It has been strange year for Morton, who starred on last year’s World Series winner. He re-signed on a $20MM deal with a matching option for next season. Through 22 starts and 122 2/3 innings, the two-time All-Star has a slightly underwhelming 4.26 ERA. That’s largely attributable to a dreadful first couple months, however. He has an ERA of 3.55 or below in each of the past three months, carrying a cumulative 3.44 mark while holding opponents to a .198/.276/.369 line since June 1. Morton is still sitting in the mid-90’s with his fastball, striking batters out at a quality 27.3% clip and has ironed out his control after some uncharacteristic wildness through his first few starts. At first glance, a $20MM salary seems pricey for a pitcher entering his age-39 season with Morton’s overall numbers, but he’s not shown any signs of physical decline and has looked great lately. If he keeps at this pace for another two months, the Braves will probably welcome him back. That, of course, assumes Morton wants to continue playing. He’s hinted at retirement in years past and set fairly strict geographic limitations on his market during his latest trips to free agency.

Mets

The Mets acquired Vogelbach from the Pirates to add a left-handed platoon bat to what had been an underwhelming designated hitter mix. He’d hit .228/.338/.430 through 75 games in Pittsburgh and has raked at a .341/.473/.568 clip over his first couple weeks in Queens. For a negligible $1.5MM salary, keeping Vogelbach around feels like an easy call. He’s technically arbitration-eligible through 2024 regardless of whether the Mets exercise his option. The option price should be more affordable than whatever he’d receive through arbitration next offseason, so if the Mets surprisingly declined the option, they’d likely non-tender him entirely.

  • John Curtiss, RP ($775K option, arbitration-eligible through 2025)

There’s nothing new to report on Curtiss. He signed a big league deal just before Opening Day with the knowledge that he’d likely miss all of this season recovering from last August’s Tommy John surgery. He was immediately placed on the injured list. Next year’s option is valued at barely above the league minimum salary, so it’s just a matter of whether the Mets plan to devote him a roster spot all offseason. Curtiss is controllable through 2025 if the Mets keep him around.

Phillies

Segura has been the Phils’ primary second baseman for the past four seasons. He’s generally hit at a slightly above-average level, relying on excellent bat-to-ball skills to prop up an aggressive offensive approach. He’s paired that with above-average defensive ratings at the keystone. He’s lost most of this season after fracturing his finger on a bunt attempt, but he’s healthy now and performing at his typical level. Across 195 plate appearances, he owns a .284/.324/.421 line with seven home runs. Segura is a good player, but a $16MM call will probably be too much for a Philadelphia club that already has five players on the books for more than $20MM next season (and will add a sixth notable salary — more on that shortly). The market also hasn’t been particularly robust for second base-only players in recent years. Segura will be headed into his age-33 season.

This one’s a no-brainer for the Phillies to exercise. Nola is one of the sport’s top pitchers, a picture of durability and consistently above-average numbers (aside from a blip in his 2021 ERA that didn’t align with still excellent peripherals). One can argue whether Nola’s a true ace, but he’s at least a high-end #2 caliber arm. He’s given the Phils 144 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA ball this season, striking out 27.9% of batters faced against a minuscule 3.6% walk rate. Even on a $16MM salary, he’s a bargain.

Reds

Wilson signed a complex free agent deal with the Yankees during the 2020-21 offseason. A one-year guarantee, the deal contained player and team options for 2022. Wilson and the Yankees agreed that if he triggered his $2.3MM player option for 2022, the team would get a 2023 option valued at $500K above that year’s league minimum salary. That provision carried over to the Reds when Wilson was dealt to Cincinnati at the 2021 trade deadline, and he indeed exercised the player option last winter. Next year’s league minimum is set at $720K, so Wilson’s option price will come in at $1.22MM.

It’s certainly affordable, but it still seems likely the Reds will let him go. The 34-year-old (35 next week) southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery in June, meaning he won’t return until late in the ’23 season at the earliest. He made just five appearances this season and posted a 5.29 ERA over 34 innings last year.

Brewers

Wong presents a tricky case for a Milwaukee club that typically runs slightly below-average player payrolls. He’s hitting .255/.336/.425, offense that checks in around 11 percentage points above league average according to wRC+. It’s among the better showings of his career. He doesn’t have huge power, but Wong’s an effective baserunner with plus bat-to-ball skills and good strike zone awareness. He’s a good but certainly not elite offensive player, one who’s performed about as well as Milwaukee could’ve reasonably hoped when signing him over the 2020-21 offseason.

What seems likely to determine whether the Brewers bring him back is how they evaluate his defense. A two-time Gold Glove award winner, Wong has rated as one of the sport’s best defensive second basemen for the majority of his career. Public metrics have unanimously panned his work this year, though, with Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegging him as the worst defensive second baseman in 2022. Wong’s speed has also taken a step back, and perhaps the Brewers think he’s just past his physical prime as he nears his 32nd birthday. If that’s the case, they probably buy him out, since Wong’s value has been so heavily concentrated in his glove. If they feel this year’s downturn is just a blip and expect he’ll return to his old ways on defense, then keeping him around makes sense. Like Segura, Wong could be affected by the market’s recent devaluation of second basemen. It’s also worth noting that Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that Milwaukee was open to trade offers on Wong before this summer’s deadline. They didn’t move him, but it’s perhaps an indication the front office is leaning towards a buyout.

Boxberger has spent the past couple seasons on low-cost contracts in Milwaukee and generally performed well. He carries a 2.51 ERA through 43 innings this season, albeit with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk rates. Boxberger has a career-worst 8.4% swinging strike rate, and the front office could view his strong run prevention mark as little more than a mirage. The financial cost is modest enough they could nevertheless keep him around, particularly since manager Craig Counsell has trusted Boxberger enough to give him plenty of high-leverage opportunities (largely with good results).

Rockies

Oberg is technically controllable for another season via club option, but the Rockies will obviously decline it. He earned a three-year extension after the 2019 season on the heels of two consecutive sub-3.00 ERA campaigns, no small feat for a reliever calling Coors Field home. Unfortunately, Oberg has dealt with persistent blood clotting issues that prevented him throwing from a single major league pitch throughout the course of the contract. The 32-year-old hasn’t officially announced his retirement, but he admitted in May he’s no longer actively pursuing a return to the field. He’s taken on a role in the Colorado scouting department to stay involved with the organization.

Dodgers

  • Max Muncy, INF ($13MM option, $1.5MM buyout)

One of the game’s best hitters from 2018-21, Muncy has had a disappointing season thus far. Seemingly nagged by health issues tied to a ligament tear he suffered in his elbow late last season, he’s had a huge downturn in his offensive production. Muncy still boasts elite strike zone awareness, but his results on contact are way down. Overall, he carries a meager .180/.317/.360 line across 366 trips to the plate.

Still, given what Muncy’s shown himself capable of in the past, it seems unlikely the Dodgers let him go to save $11.5MM. This is an organization that annually runs one of the league’s highest payrolls, and they’ve shown a willingness to place one-year bets on players with upside but risk (e.g. tendering a $17MM arbitration contract to Cody Bellinger on the heels of a .165/.240/.302 season disrupted by injuries). They’ll probably do the same with Muncy and hoping he rediscovers his prior form with another offseason to rehab his elbow.

The Dodgers signed Duffy to a one-year guarantee this spring knowing he wasn’t likely to factor into the plans until midseason. He’d been shooting for a June return but has still yet to make his Dodgers debut, although he’s reportedly throwing at the team’s Arizona complex. It’s unlikely the Dodgers bring him back for $7MM given his recent health woes, but he could change those plans if he makes it back to the mound late in the season and looks like a potential impact arm, as he did at times with the Royals.

Hudson signed a one-year guarantee over the offseason and quickly emerged as a key high-leverage option for manager Dave Roberts. He dominated over 24 1/3 innings, pitching to a 2.22 ERA with an excellent 30.9% strikeout rate while averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. The veteran righty looked like one of the sport’s best relievers for two months, but he unfortunately blew out his knee trying to field a ground-ball. He tore his left ACL and is done for the year. The Dodgers could still roll the dice given how well he’d pitched before the injury, but that’s no longer a foregone conclusion. A $5.5MM decision isn’t onerous — particularly for L.A. — but there’s plenty of risk in Hudson’s profile given the injury and the fact that he’ll be headed into his age-36 season.

The Dodgers added the veteran Alberto on a fairly surprising big league deal. He’s been a below-average offensive player for three years running, with his solid contact skills not quite compensating for a lack of power and one of the game’s most aggressive approaches. He’s played a limited utility role, serving as a right-handed bench bat capable of splitting his time between second and third base. Next year’s option price is very affordable, but the Dodgers can probably find a hitter with a bit more punch to play the role Alberto has assumed.

Nelson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but the Dodgers brought him back for the league minimum salary to get a cheap option on his services for next year. He’s been on the injured list for all of 2022, as expected. Whether the Dodgers keep him will depend on how he looks at the start of the offseason, but $1.1MM for a 33-year-old who posted a 1.86 ERA and punched out 37.9% of his opponents in 29 innings when last healthy is beyond reasonable.

Padres

The Padres have spent the past few years trying to get out from under the money they owe Myers. The extension to which they signed him in January 2017 never worked out, as he’d been a roughly average hitter aside from a monster showing in the shortened 2020 campaign up until this season. The 2022 season has been a disaster, as Myers owns a .233/.277/.295 showing through 159 plate appearances and has lost two months to a right knee injury. He’s healthy now but relegated to fourth outfield duty. Myers will probably find a big league opportunity somewhere this offseason, but it’ll come with a new team and with a substantial pay cut.

Giants

Longoria is nearing the end of an extension he first signed with the Rays a decade ago. His production dipped late in his stint with Tampa Bay, and Longoria slogged through a trio of mediocre seasons through his first four years in San Francisco. He’s had an offensive resurgence over the past two years, carrying a .254/.340/.468 line in 470 plate appearances going back to the start of 2021. Longoria’s still a good hitter and capable defender at the hot corner, but he’s dealt with plenty of injury concerns as he’s gotten into his late 30s. He’s gone on the injured list five times in the last two seasons, including long-term absences for a shoulder sprain and hand surgery. The hefty buyout means it’d only be an extra $8MM for San Francisco to keep him around, but it seems likely they’ll look to get younger at the hot corner. It’s possible the three-time All-Star takes the decision out of their hands entirely, as he told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle in June that he’s not ruling out retiring after this season.

Braves Select Top Prospect Vaughn Grissom, Activate Kirby Yates

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The Braves announced Wednesday that they’ve selected the contract of top infield prospect Vaughn Grissom from Double-A Mississippi and activated right-hander Kirby Yates from the 60-day injured list.

To open space on the 40-man roster, Atlanta activated first baseman Mike Ford from the 10-day IL and designated him for assignment and also transferred outfielder Adam Duvall from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL. Atlanta also announced that infielder Orlando Arcia is headed to the 10-day IL with a hamstring strain and that righty Huascar Ynoa has been optioned to Triple-A. That frees up a pair of spots on the 26-man roster for Grissom and Yates.

Still just 21 years old, Grissom was an 11th-round pick in 2019 who has skyrocketed through the minors, culminating in a .363/.408/.516 slash through his first 98 plate appearances in Double-A. That’s his only experience above A-ball, though this year’s .312/.404/.487 output in 344 plate appearances at High-A bear mention as well. It’s the second time this season that the Braves have aggressively promoted a top prospect directly from the Double-A ranks, and it’s easy to imagine that the major success of Michael Harris II may have emboldened the front office to go back to the well a second time.

Despite that humble draft status, Grissom has ascended to the No. 77 spot on Baseball America’s latest top-100 prospect ranking and No. 98 over at MLB.com. He’s cracked 14 home run, 20 doubles and two triples across those two minor league levels this season, all while going 27-for-32 in stolen base attempts. Grissom doesn’t walk much (8.1% on the season but just four walks in 98 Double-A plate appearances), but he’s also fanned in only 12.2% of his plate appearances this season.

Grissom has been primarily a shortstop this season and throughout his minor league career, but the Braves have given him seven starts at second base and six at third base so far in the minors this year.  Scouting reports at BA. MLB.com and FanGraphs question his ability to remain at shortstop in the long run, but his bat is thought to be solid enough to profile at second, third or even in the outfield (though he’s played infield exclusively to this point in his pro career). In the short term, with Arcia headed to the IL and Ozzie Albies still mending a broken foot, it seems likely that Grissom will be ticketed for work at second base.

Starting Grissom’s service clock now sets him up for  a potential trip to free agency in the 2028-29 offseason, although plenty can change that trajectory along the way. Albies and third baseman Austin Riley are signed long-term in the infield, and it’s not yet known whether the Braves will be able to retain free-agent-to-be Dansby Swanson beyond the current season. Even if Swanson were to depart, Grissom wouldn’t be a lock to step right into the fray. He’s largely untested above Class-A, and while Harris’ success story is encouraging, it’s more common for players — even top prospects — to struggle following such aggressive promotions. Regardless, he’ll earn some big league service time this season, and his placement on the 40-man roster a year sooner than was required will accelerate his minor league option schedule.

Turning to the veteran Yates, he’ll add yet another high-profile, potentially dominant arm to an Atlanta bullpen that is hardly short on such commodities. The 35-year-old inked a two-year, $8.25MM deal this winter — a backloaded contract that pays him just $1MM in 2022 due to the fact that Yates has been shelved for the entire season to this point while rehabbing from last year’s Tommy John surgery. When healthy most recently, in 2018-19, he was an All-Star closer with the Padres, pitching to a combined 1.67 ERA with 53 saves, a huge 38.7% strikeout rate and a tiny 6.1% walk rate.

It remains to be seen whether Yates can recapture that form, but his work on a minor league rehab assignment thus far certainly creates some optimism. Across three Braves affiliates, Yates logged a combined 8 1/3 innings of one-run ball with just four hits allowed and a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio. He’ll join Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek and Collin McHugh near the back of an outstanding bullpen.

As for the 30-year-old Ford, he’s gone hitless in eight big league plate appearances with the Braves this season and logged a combined .150/.320/.175 batting line in 50 plate appearances between Atlanta, Seattle and San Francisco. The former Yankees minor leaguer was never considered among the top prospects in the New York organization but does carry a .258/.355/.481 batting line and 61 homers through 1294 career plate appearances in Triple-A. With trades of players who’ve been on Major League rosters this season now prohibited after the Aug. 2 deadline, Ford will be placed on waivers within the next week and be made available to all 29 other clubs.

2022-23 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

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A lot has changed since the last edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings. Joe Musgrove, formerly the No. 5 entrant on the list, has since signed a five-year extension with his hometown Padres, keeping him from reaching the market. Willson Contreras, the No. 9 entrant on that edition of the list, was somewhat stunningly not traded at the deadline, meaning he’ll be subject to draft-pick compensation. Jacob deGrom had yet to pitch at that point in the season but has now made a dominant pair of outings in his 2022 debut. More broadly, several players on the list or on the “honorable mention” portion of the list have altered their stock with strong play or faded.

Here’s a look at where things stand, with a reminder that this list is based on what the MLBTR team believes to be each player’s earning power in free agency — not necessarily a ranking of the “best” free agents or who’ll hold up the best over the life of a major free-agent contract.

1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (Last ranked: 1): While plenty has changed since the May 25 version of these rankings, it’s business as usual for Judge, who boldly turned down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training and now looks prescient for doing so. Judge was hitting .314/.386/.692 at the time of our last rankings and has followed that with a remarkably consistent .292/.390/.654 line in 64 games since. Judge is on pace to top Roger Maris’ 61 home runs from the 1961 season, leading the Majors not only in long balls (44) but also runs scored (93), RBIs (98), slugging percentage (.677), OPS (1.068) and wRC+ (196). He’s leading the AL with 122 hits and has even stolen a career-high 11 bases (without being caught).

Aaron Judge | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Judge has been the best hitter on the planet since Opening Day, and as things currently stand, the only person who could conceivably stand in his way of winning his first AL MVP trophy would be Angels sensation Shohei Ohtani. However, great as Ohtani has been again in 2022, his offense isn’t quite what it was last year (and isn’t anywhere close to Judge’s league-leading dominance). From a pure WAR perspective, Judge has been so good this year that his value with the bat has eclipsed Ohtani’s combined value at the plate and on the mound.

Regardless, Judge is now poised to reach free agency on the heels of the finest season of his already brilliant big league career. He’ll play the 2023 season at age 31, which is about the only strike against him in free agency. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and even though he’d be 38 by the end of an eight-year deal, that seems plenty plausible. He could very well command the largest annual salary any position player has ever received, too, and a $300MM overall contract doesn’t seem out of the question. This is what it looks like to bet on yourself and win — in resounding, overwhelming fashion, no less.

2. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers (LR: 3): There’s not much on the baseball field that Turner doesn’t do well. The 29-year-old is the sport’s fastest player, by measure of Statcast’s Average Sprint Speed, and he’s hitting .305/.345/.499 as of this writing. The 28 home runs he popped in 2021 might very well go down as a career-high, but Turner should finish this year around 25 dingers and has twice in the past hit 19 long balls (including in a 2019 season where he played in just 122 games).

That injury shortened ’19 campaign was the only one in the past half decade in which Turner spent significant time on the shelf. Over the  past five years, he’s a .303/.358/.493 hitter who’s made a pair of All-Star teams, won a batting title and taken home a World Series ring.

By the end of a long-term deal, Turner will probably move off shortstop, but he’s a solid option there for now who’d be plenty capable of sliding over to second base at some point. Over the past three seasons, he’s been 43% better than league-average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, and this will be his fourth season of at least four wins above replacement in the past five years — with the 60-game 2020 season, when he boasted 2.8 fWAR and bWAR alike, being the lone exception.

If Turner had been born a day later, next year would technically be considered his age-29 season, but he’ll be 30 on June 30, and the July 1 cutoff is (for whatever reason) generally seen as the arbitrary turning point for a player’s age in a given year. A seven-year deal for Turner would run through age-37, and an eight-year deal through age-38. He’ll have to contend with a qualifying offer and another deep class of shortstops, but Turner is one of baseball’s most well-rounded players and figures to be compensated in line with the game’s 10 to 20 best position players.

3. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (LR: 6): It’s difficult to directly compare Arenado’s 2022 season and the 2019 season that propelled Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract, given that Rendon’s Herculean ’19 effort came during the juiced-ball season. Offense is down league-wide now, yet Arenado stacks up favorably in terms of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Metrics like wRC+ and OPS+, which weight for both home park and league environment, feel that Arenado’s 2022 production at the plate has actually been slightly better.

Defensively, Arenado is nearly peerless at his position. Since making his MLB debut in 2013, Arenado ranks second among all players, regardless of position, with 151 Defensive Runs Saved, trailing only Andrelton Simmons. He’s third to Francisco Lindor and Nick Ahmed in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, which tracks defensive data dating back to 2016. Arenado’s numbers aren’t inflated by early-career marks, either. He remains elite this season, ranking third in all of MLB in DRS and second in OAA. Defensive metrics and the eye test agree, as Arenado has been a human highlight reel at the hot corner for his decade-long career.

The age gap between 2022 Arenado (31) and 2019 Rendon (29) can’t be ignored. However, that should be more reflected in the length of a theoretical Arenado contract than in the annual value. It’s also, of course, worth noting that Arenado is technically under contract through 2027. He’s guaranteed $144MM in that time but has the right to opt out of the contract after the current season. Arenado forwent an opt-out clause after the 2021 season, but his 2022 campaign is the best of his career.

Even if he’s capped at a five-year deal in free agency, he should be able to trounce the current $28.8MM annual value remaining on his deal by as much as $5-7MM — and a six-year deal doesn’t seem impossible to imagine coming off such a brilliant effort. (Freddie Freeman scored a six-year deal beginning with his age-32 season, so there’s recent precedent.) Perhaps Arenado and the Cardinals will work out a compromise, and it’s always possible he decides he’s happy in St. Louis and just passes on the opt-out entirely. If he does want to test the market again, however, there could be another $20-60MM in earning power for him on top of his current deal.

4. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins (LR: 2): The 2022 season might not have gone quite as well as either Correa or the Twins hoped, but he’s still enjoying a sound all-around year, hitting .265/.343/.433 (22% better than league average, by measure of wRC+). He got out to a slow start in April and has slumped following the All-Star break, but for a three-month stretch from late April to late July, Correa hit .308/.375/.509. Provided the current slump doesn’t last too long, Correa stands a decent chance to be around 30% better than average at the plate for the second straight season and third time in four years.

Last year’s all-world defensive ratings have taken a dip thus far in 2022 — surprising for a player who has generally been a consistent source of elite glovework. He’s made five throwing errors this season, tied for his most since 2016, but Correa has been plenty sure-handed, booting just two balls hit to him. He’s spent the year throwing to Miguel Sano and a pair of makeshift first baseman who’ve converted from other positions (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda), so perhaps some of the throwing miscues can be forgiven by a team with a better defensive outlook at first base.

If those first couple paragraphs feel like they’re filled with caveats — well, they are. The simple fact is that Correa hasn’t had as strong a season as he did in 2021 and probably shouldn’t be expected to command the type of contract many (MLBTR included) thought to be possible last offseason. That said, Correa still hasn’t even turned 28 — the age at which he’ll play nearly all of the 2023 season. His youth alone gives him the chance to command the longest contract of any free agent this winter; even a 10-year deal would run through age-37.

That type of contract may not be on the table without a huge finish, but Correa is still a plus defender and well above-average hitter with age on his side. It’s perhaps narrowly more plausible that he could opt into a second year with the Twins, take another $35.1MM salary and hope to hit free agency on the heels of a stronger platform in 2023, but his current earning power is still among the best in this year’s free-agent class.

5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (LR: 4): When the last version of our list was published, Bogaerts had homered just four times in 174 plate appearances while posting a below-average .135 ISO (slugging minus batting average). It was easy enough to overlook as little more than small-sample noise at the time, but Bogaerts has hit just five home runs in 267 plate appearances since that time and now has nine long balls and a tepid .141 ISO in 441 trips to the plate. That’s the worst power output we’ve seen from Bogaerts since 2017 by an overwhelming margin. From 2018-21, he belted 90 homers in 2106 plate appearances while turning in a stout .224 ISO.

Bogaerts is still hitting .311/.383/.452 on the season, but he’s also sporting a career-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not going to sustain — particularly not when his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are at their lowest or near-lowest levels since 2017.

There’s still no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract, but he’d be higher on this list if not for his power stroke going MIA. Couple that with ongoing questions about his defense — some teams are surely going to see Bogaerts as a player who needs to move off shortstop, perhaps as soon as 2023 — and the current free-agent outlook is a bit murkier than expected.

Nevertheless, Bogaerts has a long track record of excellent offense and well above-average power output. With a strong finish to the season, particularly in the power department, he should have no problem commanding a notable nine-figure deal — and something in excess of $200MM can’t be ruled out.

6. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets (LR: 7): The No. 6 ranking here for deGrom factors in something of a best-case scenario, but this list is based on earning power, after all. If deGrom gets hurt again or struggles down the stretch, it’s possible he’ll drop off the list entirely. The latter of those two scenarios seems unlikely, though, as deGrom hasn’t “struggled” since 2017. He’s been dominant through his first two starts of the 2022 season, averaging 99.2 mph with his fastball and holding opponents to three runs on four hits and a walk with 18 punchouts through 10 2/3 innings.

Dating back to 2018, deGrom has a comical 1.95 ERA in 591 2/3 innings with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. When healthy, deGrom is simply unmatched in terms of starting pitching dominance over that period. He ranks second among all Major League pitchers with 24 wins above replacement dating back to 2018, per FanGraphs, despite the fact that he’s made only 93 starts in that time. Max Scherzer tops the list but has started 24 more games and logged 143 2/3 more innings — about an extra 75% of a season’s worth of work.

If deGrom finishes the season with no red flags, the bidding should be furious. He’ll turn 35 next June, making him nearly three full years younger than Scherzer was when he secured his record-setting three-year, $130MM deal from the Mets. DeGrom could justifiably look to top that AAV on a multi-year deal, and he’s too good for the bidding to stop at two years. The biggest question surrounding deGrom is just how many years someone will be willing to guarantee. A three-year pact in excess of Scherzer’s seems doable, and a fourth year ought to be on the table as well.

7. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves (LR: Not Ranked): Long a plus defender at shortstop, Swanson is having another strong year with the glove and a career year with the bat. He’s followed up a career-high 27 home runs in 2021 with a .292/.348/.461 showing through 463 trips to the plate. He’s been the beneficiary of a .375 average on balls in play that he surely won’t sustain over a larger sample, but Swanson is also making hard contact at a career-best 44.7% clip and elevating the ball more than he has in years past.

A greater walk rate than his current 7.3% clip or lower strikeout rate than his 26.3% mark would raise Swanson’s floor, but his glove alone will make him an above-average regular and he’s well on his way to his second straight 25-homer season. Add in that Swanson will play all of next season at 29 years old, and a nine-figure deal seems likely. Both Trevor Story and Javier Baez landed six-year, $140MM pacts last winter at the same age. Swanson will have to contend with a qualifying offer and with some more decorated shortstop options ahead of him on the market, but he’ll be in high demand all the same.

8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Giants (LR: 8): Rodon was the best pitcher in baseball through late July in 2021, but he was capped to five innings per appearance (at most) down the stretch as he battled shoulder fatigue and diminished velocity. For a pitcher with Rodon’s injury history, that limited interest in him to the point that he took a two-year, $44MM deal with a chance to opt out following the 2022 season — provided he reached 110 frames.

Rodon has not only reached 110 innings — he’s shot past it with career-best velocity (95.8 mph average fastball) and another sub-3.00 ERA (2.95 through 128 1/3 frames thus far). Rodon is averaging just shy of six innings per outing and boasts a 31.2% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk rate. He’s reached double-digit strikeouts in six of his 22 starts and held opponents to three or fewer runs in 18 of 22 tries.

Rodon’s fastball in his past eight starts is down about one mile per hour over his average from his first 14 starts, but it’s still been a healthy 95.1 mph in that stretch. That said, he threw a complete game on July 9, worked seven shutout innings on July 31, and averaged a resurgent 96 mph with his heater in his most recent outing. At least so far, Rodon doesn’t appear to be fading at all. If he can avoid the type of late swoon he experienced in 2021, he ought to find four-  and five-year offers at superior annual values to this contract’s $22MM AAV. He’ll receive a qualifying offer and surely reject it, which isn’t ideal, but he has the best combination of age (30 all of next season) and 2022 performance of any starter on this year’s market.

9. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros (LR: Not Ranked): Simply returning to make a full season’s worth of starts would’ve been a feat for a 39-year-old who had pitched just six innings since the end of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. Verlander, of course, is no ordinary 39-year-old, and he’s not only returned but positioned himself as a front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award.

It’s a jaw-dropping feat, even for one of this generation’s best. Verlander has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate against a minuscule 4.6% walk rate. He’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start, sitting 95.1 mph with his heater — his second-best mark since way back in 2011 — and has thrown a quality start in 16 of his 20 appearances this year. Verlander hasn’t yielded more than one earned run in a start since June 18 and has held opponents to one or zero earned runs in a stunning 15 of 20 starts.

He’ll turn 40 in February, but Verlander has a legitimate case to break Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV, particularly if he’s looking at a two-year deal. He’s said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s and looks as good as ever, though, so we shouldn’t discount the possibility that a team shrugs and goes to three guaranteed years for this generation’s most prolific workhorse. Verlander unlocked a $25MM player option when he reached 130 innings pitched, but he should be able to crush that in free agency even if he prefers to work out an extension with Houston.

10. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets (LR: Not Ranked): It’s been six years since Mark Melancon (four years, $62MM), Kenley Jansen (five years, $80MM) and Aroldis Chapman (five years, $85MM) each set new records for relief contracts in the same offseason. Diaz, the most dominant reliever in baseball this season, will have a chance to topple that Chapman record when he heads into free agency in advance of his age-29 season.

After a nightmarish first season in Queens, Diaz has righted the ship and become a spectacle in the best kind of way. He’s averaging 99.1 mph on his heater this season, has punched out 52.9% of his opponents and has an entrance more befitting of a professional wrestler than a Major League closer.

Diaz’s Baseball Savant profile looks like a video game cheat code. He’s leading the Majors in expected ERA, expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, strikeout rate, whiff rate and ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, opponents’ chase rate, opponents’ barrel rate and fastball velocity. Diaz last allowed an earned run on June 18, and in 18 innings since that time he’s posted a 38-to-1 K/BB ratio while yielding just seven hits.

The 2022 version of Edwin Diaz might be the best reliever we’ve seen since Mariano Rivera. He’ll be hit with a qualifying offer, but it’s doubtful the teams pursuing him are going to even care about that. It’d be a surprise if Diaz doesn’t set a new contract record for relief pitchers this winter, and he could be baseball’s first nine-figure reliever.

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Benintendi

Braves Option Ian Anderson

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The Braves announced a series of roster moves today, recalling right-hander Huascar Ynoa and selecting catcher Chadwick Tromp. To create room on the active roster, they’ve optioned righty Ian Anderson and outfielder Guillermo Heredia.

The most noteworthy of these moves is the demotion of Anderson, who has been entrenched in the rotation for quite some time. First called up to the big leagues in August of 2020, he made six starts in the shortened season and registered a 1.95 ERA. That was impressive enough for Anderson to earn a spot in the club’s postseason rotation, as he made four more starts in the playoffs with a 0.96 ERA, as Atlanta reached the NLCS.

Last year, Anderson seemingly proved he wasn’t a short-season fluke by pitching well over a full campaign. Though he did make one trip to the IL, Anderson made 24 starts in 2021 with a 3.58 ERA, then made four more postseason starts with a 1.59 ERA, helping Atlanta win the World Series.

The 24-year-old has taken a step back here in 2022, however, currently sporting a 5.11 ERA on the year. His 29.7% strikeout rate in 2020 fell to 23.2% last year and is down to 19.8% here this year. His 11.3% walk rate is also a career high and his 47.4% ground ball rate a career low. It’s possible there’s some bad luck involved, as his .318 BABIP on the year is much higher than in past seasons, but there’s also a lot of blue on his Statcast page, with batters clearly making some good contact against him. With the emergence of rookie Spencer Strider and the acquisition of Jake Odorizzi, it seems Anderson’s struggles have bumped him from the front five. He’ll join the Gwinnett Stripers and try to get things back on track.

The move isn’t likely to have a huge impact on Anderson from a service time perspective, at least in the short term. He came into this season with one year and 94 days of service time and has added around 120 more days here in 2022. Even if he were to spend the rest of the season in the minors, he’d finish the campaign somewhere around 2.025. That would still put him on track to reach arbitration for the first time after 2023 and free agency after 2026, though future optional assignments could also alter that timeline.

The recall of Tromp was required due to a leg injury sustained last night by Travis D’Arnaud. Although X-rays were negative, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, D’Arnaud will likely be unavailable for a few days. That leaves William Contreras as the primary catcher, with Tromp stepping in as the backup.

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