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Red Sox Add José Flores, Parker Guinn To Coaching Staff

By Darragh McDonald | November 22, 2024 at 2:18pm CDT

The Red Sox announced their 2025 coaching staff today. José Flores has been named the first base coach/infield instructor while Parker Guinn has been hired as the catching instructor/bullpen catcher. The other names are either returnees from 2024 or previously-reported hirings.

Flores, 53, is an internal promotion. He spent the past three seasons as the bench coach for Triple-A Worcester. But this isn’t his first time on a big league staff, as he was the first base/infield coach for the Phillies and Orioles in the years prior to joining Worcester. He has also worked for several other minor league clubs and team Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic.

Guinn, 31, spent several years coaching for various schools in the college ranks before getting into affiliated ball. He spent the past two years as manager for the Yankees in the Dominican Summer League. Prior to that, he spent time with the University of Washington, Everett Community College, University of Utah, and Southern Illinois Edwardsville University.

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Astros Have Made Offer To Alex Bregman

By Anthony Franco | November 21, 2024 at 9:20pm CDT

The Astros have called re-signing Alex Bregman their top offseason priority. Whether that’ll happen remains to be seen, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Houston has made an offer to their longtime third baseman. It’s unclear whether any other teams have made a formal proposal, but Heyman reports that Bregman’s camp has also fielded interest from the Tigers and Red Sox.

Terms of the Astros’ proposal aren’t known. If Houston is going to retain Bregman, it’d probably require the largest investment in franchise history. Their previous organizational high is the five-year, $151MM Jose Altuve extension from 2018. Bregman has a decent shot at six or seven years at more than $25MM annually. He’ll presumably view Matt Chapman’s recent six-year, $151MM extension as the floor and could look to beat $200MM.

Houston general manager Dana Brown said early in the offseason that the Astros may need to creatively manage the books, potentially by trading a veteran or two who is playing on a notable salary. Owner Jim Crane said earlier this week that the team has the flexibility to exceed the luxury tax threshold for a second straight year.

That’d essentially be a prerequisite to re-signing Bregman. RosterResource calculates Houston’s competitive balance tax number in the $234MM range. That’s not far below the $241MM base threshold. Even if the Astros trade veteran setup man Ryan Pressly and offload his $14MM salary, a Bregman contract will send them past the CBT mark. They’re also looking for help at first base and could try for a more affordable bullpen pickup if they deal Pressly.

This is the first direct tie between Bregman and the Tigers. That has been a longstanding speculative match with former Astros manager A.J. Hinch leading the charge in Motown. Detroit’s third base mix is unsettled. Matt Vierling, Zach McKinstry and prospect Jace Jung all took a decent number of at-bats at the position. Vierling and McKinstry are multi-positional players. Third base is the clearest fit for the 24-year-old Jung, who has 34 games of major league experience. If the Tigers were to land Bregman, Jung could push Spencer Torkelson for playing time at first base. He’d also be a potential trade chip as Detroit looks to solidify the rotation behind Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson.

Finances are the much bigger obstacle. While Detroit has run payrolls north of $200MM in the past, those came when the late Mike Ilitch was running the franchise. The Tigers have dramatically reduced spending since Christopher Ilitich’s ownership tenure began in 2017. Much of that came amidst a rebuild that was firmly closed by Detroit’s late-season run to the AL Division Series, so they could loosen the purse strings this winter. The Tigers only have around $80MM on next year’s payroll, according to RosterResource, nearly $20MM below this past season’s Opening Day mark. They should be active on the free agent market, but a Bregman deal would almost certainly top the $140MM Javier Báez contract as Detroit’s biggest under Christopher Ilitch ownership.

The Red Sox appear more likely than either the Astros or Tigers to make a huge free agent splash. Boston brass continues to forecast an aggressive winter. A strike for a top starting pitcher is a clearer fit than a run at Bregman. Heyman suggests the Sox could move Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base to accommodate Bregman. That’d push Triston Casas to designated hitter and presumably force Masataka Yoshida off the roster.

The easier solution might be to leave Devers at third base for another season and deploy Bregman at the keystone. The Sox had one of the least productive second base groups in MLB this year. Bregman has barely played second base because of Altuve’s presence in Houston, but agent Scott Boras said at the GM Meetings that the star infielder was willing to slide to the right side of the infield if necessary.

Bregman declined a qualifying offer, so the Tigers and Sox would forfeit a pick if they were to sign him. Detroit would lose its third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Boston would relinquish its second-highest pick and $500K from its international bonus allotment. The Sox’s penalty is higher because they do not receive revenue sharing, while the Tigers do. Houston wouldn’t give up anything to re-sign their own free agent, though they’d pass up the chance to collect a compensation pick after the fourth round if Bregman walks.

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Kennedy: Red Sox Willing To Pay Competitive Balance Tax In 2025

By Darragh McDonald | November 21, 2024 at 3:13pm CDT

Red Sox brass have been signaling their intent to have an aggressive offseason, with president and CEO Sam Kennedy doubling down this week, per Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. As they look to navigate the next few months, they apparently don’t view the competitive balance tax as a red line. “Even if it takes us over the CBT,” said Kennedy at the owners meetings, “our priority is 90 to 95 wins, and winning the American League East, and winning the division for multiple years.”

Those comments are in line with some that Kennedy made last month, when he also referenced the 90-95 win window as well as targeting a division title. It seems the club is planning to reverse course after several years of playing things a bit more modestly.

Looking at payroll data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox were one of the top six spenders in each year from 2000 to 2020, a stretch in which they won four titles. But they have dropped themselves down to middle of the pack lately, including being 12th in each of the past two seasons. Perhaps not coincidentally, the results have dropped off, with the Sox finishing last in the American League east in three of the past five years.

Red Sox fans might roll their eyes after chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments last year didn’t lead to much, but that arguably makes it more notable that the Sox have been taking every opportunity to raise expectations again, as letting the fans down two years in a row would obviously be poor public relations strategy.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke of looking to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation earlier this month. As mentioned, this is the second time that Kennedy has been forthright in stating that the club is planning to take a shot at the division, this time indicating that they might even get into tax payor status as they do so. They have already been connected to big-name free agents like Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Willy Adames, Max Fried and others.

“Is that possible? If that’s what it takes, yeah, absolutely,” Kennedy said of adding a mega deal to the club’s ledger. “We are investing more than we did last year. We intend to invest going forward. There is an extreme urgency internally to be competing for the American League East Championship and to set ourselves up for a deep postseason run in 2025 without question. The goal is to win 90 plus games to not be worrying about a wild card spot.”

Assuming the club is indeed willing to cross the tax line, that gives them a lot of spending power this winter. RosterResource currently calculates the club’s CBT number at $171MM for 2025. The lowest threshold of the tax will $241MM next year, meaning the Sox could give out contracts with about $70MM in terms of average annual value before getting to the line.

That might not even be the cap of their spending ability if they are willing to go beyond the base threshold. The Sox haven’t paid the tax since 2022, so they would be a “first-time” payor in 2025. That means they would be looking at a base tax rate of just 20%, with higher rates for going beyond the three further thresholds, each one being $20MM higher than the one before.

Soto is expected to land a historic deal, with many predictions suggesting he could get something in the window of $45-50MM annually. Theoretically, it’s possible for the Sox to sign Soto and still have money for other moves, if they are willing to go over the line. Or even without signing Soto, they could sign multiple players from the next tier of free agency.

Of course, saying that you’re willing to pay the tax and then actually doing it are two different things. It’s still entirely possible that the Sox are aggressive in ways that push the payroll towars the tax line without going over. That could mean less activity in free agency while being more active on the trade market, or perhaps not doing much in either sphere.

However it plays out, that gives the club a lot of possible options in terms of upgrading a team that went 81-81 in 2024. They have some strong core players like Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck and others. They have a lauded group of prospects which includes the “Big Four” of Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel and Roman Anthony, who are all on the cusp of the majors. Those players could perhaps be used as part of a mega deal for someone like Garrett Crochet, or they could be kept as the Sox address their roster with free agents instead. “Everything and anything’s on the table for us,” Kennedy said. “Free agency, trades, promotions from the minor leagues.”

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Red Sox, Dodgers Have Met With Blake Snell

By Steve Adams | November 21, 2024 at 9:27am CDT

Juan Soto’s meetings with owners around the leagues have dominated headlines recently, but he’s not the only high-profile free agent or Scott Boras client setting up meetings with team contingents. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that left-hander Blake Snell has held recent meetings with both the Red Sox and Dodgers. The Blue Jays are also pursuing Snell, per Rosenthal’s report, and could soon set up a meeting of their own. The Orioles are another potential club who could do so.

Both Boston and Los Angeles have reason to be in on high-end rotation help this summer, and the 32-year-old Snell, a two-time Cy Young winner, clearly fits the billing. Similarly, Snell has good motivation to push for a swifter free agency than last offseason, after lingering on the market into spring training and signing a two-year deal with an opt-out in San Francisco less than two weeks before Opening Day.

For the Red Sox, Snell would add a No. 1 starter to the top of a rotation that could lose Nick Pivetta to free agency after he rejected a qualifying offer. Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello are all rotation locks right now. Lucas Giolito will join them at some point in the season’s first half, but his timeline remains murky after he missed the entire 2024 season — his first in Boston — thanks to UCL surgery performed in spring training. Righty Garrett Whitlock is also on the mend from his own UCL procedure.

Candidates for the final two rotation spots at Fenway Park currently include Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, Quinn Priester and Zach Penrod. Criswell looked to have a leg up after a decent season, due to a lack of minor league options, but he’s reportedly eligible for a fourth option year, which gives the Sox even more flexibility with their staff.

Many Red Sox fans are understandably skeptical of the team’s willingness to follow through on pursuits of high-profile free agents. Boston faithful are still stinging from chairman Tom Werner’s widely mocked “full throttle” comments last offseason, which did not result in an acquisition larger than Giolito’s two-year, $38.5MM contract. But Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has taken a more aggressive stance himself this time around, declaring that it’s time for the Red Sox to “deliver the team that’s capable of winning the AL East” even if that means the Sox need to be “aggressive in bringing players in who aren’t currently in the organization.”

From a payroll perspective, the Red Sox have more than enough space to accommodate multiple big-ticket additions this winter. RosterResource currently projects Boston for a $138MM payroll and $171MM worth of luxury obligations. That projection is nearly $100MM shy of their franchise-record payroll, while their luxury ledger right now leaves them $70MM shy of the first tier threshold. Of course, the Red Sox haven’t been shy about paying the luxury tax in the past, either. They did so as recently as 2022 and have now reset their penalty level by dipping back under the tax line. The Red Sox have an extremely small arbitration class — just Houck, Crawford and Jarren Duran — and will only add Triston Casas, Connor Wong and perhaps Zack Kelly to that group in 2026.

Turning to the Dodgers, there’s an obvious case for Snell as a fit. Connections like this can often be more anecdotal than substantive, but it at least bears mentioning that Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was running baseball operations in Tampa Bay when the Rays drafted and developed Snell. Outside their deals for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — two players with unique free agent circumstances — the Dodgers have preferred shorter-term, high-AAV deals in free agency. That could make Snell, whose maximum contract length is perhaps shorter than other top-tier starters because he’s about to turn 32 years old, a more typical “Dodgers” fit.

One deterrent for the Dodgers could be an already bloated luxury-tax bill. RosterResource pegs them at $270MM in obligations, meaning they’re already well into the second tier of penalty. Snell alone could push them into the fourth tier, particularly on a high-AAV short-term deal. Even using last year’s $31MM AAV as a hypothetical guideline — and Snell has a case for a higher one on another relatively short deal — Snell would cost the Dodgers nearly $57MM in year one of the contract. That’d also set the Dodgers up to pay a 110% tax on any dollars spent thereafter. Trades and non-tenders could lessen the sting, but likely not by much. Any free agent dollars spent by the Dodgers are going to hurt.

Still, the Dodgers likely feel they need to bite that bullet. The rotation in Los Angeles has nearly unmatched star power but similarly has nearly unrivaled question marks. Yamamoto, Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow make up a potentially dominant top three, but health concerns abound. Yamamoto missed more than two months with a shoulder injury in 2024. Glasnow was limited to only 22 starts last year, and his modest 134 innings represented a career-high. Ohtani didn’t pitch while recovering from the second UCL repair of his career.

Beyond that talented but risky top three are Tony Gonsolin (who missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery), Dustin May (who missed all of 2024 recovering from forearm surgery and an esophageal procedure) and Bobby Miller (a breakout 2023 rookie who struggled immensely in 2024). Highly touted young arms like Gavin Stone (shoulder surgery), River Ryan (Tommy John surgery), Emmet Sheehan (Tommy John surgery) and Kyle Hurt (Tommy John surgery) will miss some or all of the 2025 season. Dodgers icon Clayton Kershaw will be back on some form of incentive-laden deal — he’s already declared as much — though the two parties have yet to come to specific terms. Kershaw started just seven games last year.

Snell, of course, has his own lengthy injury history — including a pair of groin and adductor injuries that limited him to six awful starts in the season’s first two months with the archrival Giants. However, upon returning in early July, the lefty looked back to Cy Young form. He fired 12 shutout frames between his first two starts, kicking off a three-month run for the ages. Snell tossed a no-hitter at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park against the Reds, fanned 15 Rockies in a start at Coors Field and at one point went on a streak of four double-digit strikeout performances in five starts.

Over the final three months of the season, Snell was comically dominant. He pitched 80 1/3 innings with a jaw-dropping 1.23 ERA, complemented by an elite 38.1% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate that’s higher than average but passable for someone who can miss bats at Snell’s level. It was only 14 starts, but Snell was the best pitcher in baseball from July 2 onward.

Snell has a history of slow starts and blistering second-half surges, but as I examined late in the season for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, many of his first-half struggles have come in conjunction with unusual spring circumstances (i.e. the shortened 2020 season, the accelerated ramp-up from the 2021-22 lockout, and signing in late March last year). True, there are pitchers who’ve succeeded in spite of similar circumstances, but we’ve also repeatedly seen late-signing pitchers struggle early in the year (e.g. Jordan Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, to name a few). It’s eminently possible that Snell is the type of pitcher who simply needs a full runway to realize his best form. He’d hardly be alone in that regard, and that characteristic gives him all the more motivation to have a deal in place well before spring training begins.

Snell faces some notable competition on the free agent market. Some clubs may not want to spend aggressively on another free agent before they know the outcome of the Juan Soto auction, and even those willing to spend sooner than that will also have to weigh the merits of signing a 32-year-old Snell versus a 31-year-old Max Fried, 30-year-old Corbin Burnes or 29-year-old Jack Flaherty. Fried and Burnes have qualifying offers attached to them, whereas Snell and Flaherty do not; in other words, teams will have to forfeit draft picks and international bonus pool space to sign Fried or Burnes — but not Snell or Flaherty. Snell is three years older than Flaherty but also more accomplished. He certainly has his warts and carries plenty of risk, but it’s easy enough to see how a club could view Snell as the most appealing of this offseason’s top-tier starters when factoring in likely length of contract, draft compensation, track record, health and other factors.

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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Toronto Blue Jays Blake Snell

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Red Sox Agree To Minor League Deals With Seby Zavala, Nate Eaton

By Steve Adams | November 20, 2024 at 8:15pm CDT

The Red Sox have agreed to minor league deals with catcher Seby Zavala, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Boston is also in agreement on a minor league deal with utilityman Nate Eaton, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Eaton would earn a $780K base salary if selected to the 40-man roster. Both players will be invited to major league spring training.

Zavala, a client of Headline Sports Group, spent the 2024 season in the Mariners organization. Seattle acquired him alongside flamethrowing relief prospect Carlos Vargas in the trade sending Eugenio Suarez to the D-backs. The hope was that Zavala, a terrific defender behind the plate, could hold down the backup job to workhorse catcher Cal Raleigh.

Things didn’t pan out that way, however. The 31-year-old Zavala has never hit much, but last year’s .154/.214/.282 slash (in a tiny sample of 43 plate appearances) was too anemic for the M’s to stomach. Zavala was designated for assignment three different times but opted to stick with the M’s via outright assignment each time. He became a minor league free agent at season’s end.

Zavala has appeared in 194 big league games. He’s a career .205/.271/.342 hitter in that time. He’s shown passable power for his position and also displayed some pop in the minors, but Zavala has punched out in a staggering 35.9% of his 557 big league plate appearances. That lack of contact leaves him with practically no hope of producing at even an average level.

Defensively, it’s another story. Zavala regularly posts elite framing marks and draws above-average grades for his ability to block pitches in the dirt, per Statcast. He posted a below-average caught stealing rate in 2023 but was within one percentage point of league-average in both 2024 and 2022. The Red Sox currently only have two catchers on the 40-man roster: Connor Wong and Mickey Gasper. Adding some experienced depth is a sensible endeavor.

Eaton, 28 next month, is a client of Gaeta Sports Management. He didn’t play in the big leagues this past season but logged 72 games and 178 plate appearances for the Royals from 2022-23. He batted only .201/.266/.283 in that time, but the versatile right-handed hitter has a far better track record in the upper minors. In parts of three seasons in Triple-A Omaha, he’s a .261/.320/.455 hitter with 40 homers and 60 steals in 255 games (1060 plate appearances).

Eaton has played primarily third base in his professional career but has at least 600 innings at each of the three outfield slots in addition to another 350 frames at second base and 60 at shortstop. Statcast credited him with 97th percentile sprint speed in his two big league seasons, measuring him at a blazing 29.6 feet per second.

Boston’s bench should have some spots up for grabs. Utilityman Rob Refsnyder, another right-handed bat, figures to have one spot locked down, and Gasper does as well for the time being, currently profiling as the backup to Wong. Romy Gonzalez, Nick Sogard, Enmanuel Valdez and Vaughn Grissom could all be in the mix for spots as well, but they all have minor league options remaining. Eaton’s versatility could earn him a look in the majors with a big spring or a strong early showing with the Sox’ Triple-A affiliate in Worcester.

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Boston Red Sox Transactions Nate Eaton Seby Zavala

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MLBTR Podcast: The Rays’ Stadium Plans, Diamond Sports, And Some Offseason Rumors

By Darragh McDonald | November 20, 2024 at 9:35am CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Rays’ stadium plans for the short term and the uncertainty in the long term (1:45)
  • Diamond Sports Group getting out of bankruptcy (8:40)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • If the Red Sox acquire Garrett Crochet from the White Sox, will they still go after top free agents? (13:15)
  • Could the Reds and Royals line up on a trade involving Jonathan India and Brady Singer or some other Kansas City pitching? (17:25)
  • On the Top 50, none of the writers predicted the Orioles to sign top free agents. Are you underestimating David Rubenstein’s intention to speed up the timeline? (26:05)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Roki Sasaki, Gerrit Cole’s Non-Opt-Out, And Cardinals Rumors – listen here
  • Breaking Down The Top 50 Free Agents List – listen here
  • The Mets’ Spending Power, Juan Soto Suitors, And The Rangers’ Payroll Limits – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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Red Sox Designate Bryan Mata, Isaiah Campbell For Assignment

By Anthony Franco | November 19, 2024 at 5:22pm CDT

The Red Sox announced they’ve designated right-handers Bryan Mata and Isaiah Campbell for assignment. The moves create the necessary 40-man roster spots for the previously reported additions of Hunter Dobbins and Jhostynxon Garcia to the roster.

Mata, 25, was once among the most highly-touted pitchers in the Boston system. The Venezuela native posted excellent numbers in the low minors and earned a 40-man roster spot after the 2020 season. He unfortunately hasn’t made it to the big leagues four years later, largely because of injury. Mata underwent Tommy John surgery early in the ’21 campaign. He hasn’t topped 83 innings in a minor league season since then.

A hamstring strain limited him to 22 2/3 innings between four minor league levels this year. Mata turned in a 4.37 ERA as he tried to work to the majors. He has allowed 4.87 earned runs per nine through 87 career Triple-A frames. The Sox will likely non-tender him on Friday and try to bring him back on a minor league deal, but he could look for other opportunities if he hits free agency.

Campbell, 27, also lost most of the season to injury. Acquired from the Mariners last offseason for infielder Luis Urías, he only pitched 6 2/3 innings in a Sox uniform. Campbell was blitzed for 13 runs in that small sample, a far cry from the 2.83 ERA he posted in 27 appearances for the Mariners as a rookie. The Arkansas product missed time with both a shoulder impingement and elbow inflammation amidst a difficult year.

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Red Sox To Select Hunter Dobbins, Jhostynxon Garcia

By Steve Adams | November 19, 2024 at 3:56pm CDT

The Red Sox are adding a pair of players to their 40-man roster ahead of tonight’s Rule 5 protection deadline. Right-hander Hunter Dobbins is having his contract selected, per Christopher Smith of MassLive.com. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier adds that Boston will also select outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia. Those are the only two players the Sox are adding, per Speier. They’ll need to open a pair of 40-man spots in order to make them official.

Boston selected Dobbins, now 25, with their eighth-round pick in 2021. He started 21 Double-A games and another four in Triple-A this past season, logging a combined 3.08 ERA with a 22.9% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. Dobbins was the organization’s minor league starting pitcher of the season and ended the year ranked 26th among the team’s farmhands, per Baseball America. He’s 93-94 mph with his heater on average and pairs the pitch with a slider, splitter and curveball.

The 21-year-old Garcia (first name pronounced yos-TIN-son) split this past season between Low-A, High-A and Double-A. He laid waste to pitchers at the former levels (.258/.365/.517, five homers in 104 plate appearances in Low-A; .311/.371/.627, 16 homers in 229 plate appearances in High-A) before posting more modest results at the most advanced of his three stops (.263/.320/.386, two homes in 126 plate appearances).

Garcia is a power-over-hit prospect who’s played center field but seems likelier to settle into a corner. He walked in just 7.2% of his plate appearances this season against a 21.7% strikeout rate. That marks an improvement over the 30.4% strikeout rate he logged in 2022 and the 25.5% mark he posted in 2023, but the increased contact has come at the expense of his formerly plus walk rates.

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12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

By Anthony Franco | November 19, 2024 at 2:58pm CDT

Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

  • Willy Adames (Brewers)
  • Pete Alonso (Mets)
  • Alex Bregman (Astros)
  • Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
  • Max Fried (Braves)
  • Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
  • Sean Manaea (Mets) — full post
  • Nick Pivetta (Red Sox) — full post
  • Anthony Santander (Orioles)
  • Luis Severino (Mets) — full post
  • Juan Soto (Yankees)
  • Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

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Red Sox’ Cooper Criswell Eligible For Fourth Option Year

By Steve Adams | November 19, 2024 at 12:52pm CDT

The Red Sox’ pitching depth has more flexibility than might’ve been otherwise apparent at first glance. Right-hander Cooper Criswell exhausted his third and typically final option year in 2024, but Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports that the Red Sox will actually hold a fourth option year on Criswell.

It’s standard in Major League Baseball for players to have three “option” years where they can be freely sent down to a minor league affiliate without first clearing waivers. An “option year” is used when any player on the 40-man roster is optioned to the minors and spends at least 20 days there. This applies even to players who’ve yet to make their big league debut but are optioned to a minor league affiliate out of spring training. However, the league grants a fourth option year for players who exhaust their three original three option years in fewer than five professional seasons (defined as 90-plus days on a major league or minor league active roster/injured list).

In the case of Criswell, he’s a 2018 draftee of the Angels who’s appeared in exactly five full seasons: 2019 and 2021-24. (He wasn’t on the roster for the abbreviated 2020 campaign.) The Halos originally selected him to the 40-man roster in 2021, and he was optioned in each of the three subsequent seasons throughout the course of stints with the Halos, Rays and Red Sox.

For the Red Sox, it’s a nice boon. Criswell goes from a back-end starter/swingman who’d have to be rostered on Opening Day to a valuable fifth/sixth starter who can be shuttled between their Triple-A affiliate in nearby Worcester and the major league roster. Criswell, who signed a big league deal with the Sox after being non-tendered by the Rays last winter, clearly pitched his way into the club’s plans with 99 1/3 innings of 4.08 ERA ball between the rotation and bullpen. He fanned a below-average 17.2% of opponents against a strong 7.3% walk rate and impressive 50.3% ground-ball rate.

Right now, the locks in the Boston rotation are Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello. Veteran Lucas Giolito, once healthy, will eventually join them. Criswell, Quinn Priester and Richard Fitts are among the other options near the back of the rotation.

The Sox figure to add at least one starting pitcher via free agency and/or trade. They’ve been linked to the top names on the market already and have at least signaled a willingness to act more aggressively than in recent offseasons. Criswell’s extra option year gives them some flexibility and will help the team preserve depth if and when additional rotation arms are added in the weeks and months ahead.

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