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Cubs Interested In Emmanuel Clase

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The Cubs are one of the clubs “most actively monitoring” Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase, reports Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com. Clase has been recently connected to clubs such as the Dodgers and Phillies in recent weeks. The Cubs were also connected to Clase ahead of the 2024 season.

It’s not a surprise that the Cubs or any other club would be interested in Clase, who has been one of the best closers in the sport for a few years now. From 2021 to the present, he has 180 saves for Cleveland, the most of anyone in the majors for that span. He has a 1.77 earned run average in that time. His 24.9% strikeout rate is only a bit above average, unusual for a closer. However, his 4.7% walk rate and 58.4% ground ball rate are both strong figures.

In addition to the results, his contract is very favorable. He has a $4.5MM salary this year and will make $6MM next year. He then has a pair of $13MM options with $2MM buyouts. In free agency, top closers like Edwin Díaz and Josh Hader have been able to secure average annual values around $20MM. Clase’s deal therefore has heaps of surplus value.

However, that also makes him very valuable to a low-payroll club like the Guardians. They are reportedly willing to listen to offers but that doesn’t mean they’re pushing him out the door. A recent four-game winning streak has pulled them to 51-50 and just 2.5 games back of a playoff spot. Their pre-deadline schedule is on the softer side. They’re playing the Orioles today, followed three games in Kansas City and three games in Cleveland against the Rockies.

Perhaps the Guardians can pull themselves out of seller position and into buyer mode, which may or may not impact Clase’s availability. It’s possible to imagine them doing some selling but holding Clase or trading him while still hoping to compete. The Guardians are often willing to walk a buy/sell tightrope, balancing their current and future needs. The decision is presumably dependent on what kinds of offers they receive. They have other strong relievers, including Cade Smith, so it’s possible they view a Clase trade as something that could upgrade another part of the roster without significantly hurting the bullpen. Then again, there is no rush to flip him if they’re not bowled over by an offer.

For the Cubs, it’s easy to see the appeal. They are one of the best teams in baseball and clearly in buyer mode this year. Elite relievers take on outsized importance in the playoffs, where off-days make it possible for them to impact almost every game.

The club’s relief corps has a collective 3.78 ERA, which puts them 10th in the majors. Daniel Palencia is doing a good job as the closer but adding Clase and moving everyone else down a peg on the depth chart would make the whole group stronger.

Pulling off a trade of Clase would require the club to part with some notable pieces to make it worth Cleveland’s while, though perhaps the Cubs are willing to do so. They already showed an all-in mentality in the Kyle Tucker trade this offseason and could perhaps keep the foot on the gas pedal. The Cubs have some notable outfield prospects, including Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara, which is an area of ongoing concern in Cleveland. It’s unclear if the Cubs would be willing to include any players like that for a bullpen upgrade. They have long-term outfield questions of their own, as Tucker is an impending free agent while Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are slated for free agency after 2026.

Photo courtesy of Ken Blaze, Imagn Images

Cubs, Zach Pop Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs reached agreement with reliever Zach Pop on a minor league contract, according to Tommy Birch of The Des Moines Register. The right-hander was assigned to Triple-A Iowa.

Pop is on his fourth organization of the season. He has bounced between the Blue Jays, Mariners and Mets. Pop was on the injured list with Toronto and combined for five outings between Seattle and New York. He was tagged for 12 runs (11 earned) including four homers in 6 2/3 innings. Pop is out of minor league options, so teams couldn’t afford to give him much rope when he was struggling to that extent.

The 28-year-old has pitched in parts of five MLB seasons. He threw 48 1/3 frames for the Jays last year, working to a 5.59 ERA with a well below-average 15.8% strikeout percentage. Pop doesn’t have huge swing-and-miss stuff, but he sits around 96 MPH with his sinker and has posted a 55% ground-ball rate in his MLB career. He carries a 3.71 ERA in 80 career Triple-A innings.

Latest On Seth Lugo’s Trade Candidacy

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Seth Lugo reeled off another productive start this afternoon, tossing six innings of two-run ball to earn the win at Wrigley Field. The veteran right-hander now carries a 2.95 earned run average with a 22% strikeout rate. This was his 11th quality start in 19 appearances.

Kansas City took two out of three from the Cubs, but they’re still three games under .500. They’re off tomorrow before home series against the Guardians and Braves that’ll take them to the deadline. Lugo would be lined up for one more start against Atlanta until the Royals need to decide on his future. He’ll very likely decline his $15MM player option for next season. Kansas City’s win today pulled them back within four games of the final AL Wild Card spot, pending Boston’s game in Philadelphia. The Rays, Guardians and Rangers all stand between them and Boston.

The Royals would get plenty of calls on Lugo, who’d be one of the best short-term starting pitchers on the market if K.C. made him available. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported yesterday that the Cubs were among the teams that have had conversations with Kansas City about their pitching. Morosi added that the Royals are unsurprisingly more likely to trade Lugo than they would be to part with southpaw Kris Bubic. ESPN’s Jeff Passan hears similarly, writing that the Royals are more focused on Lugo at the moment.

That doesn’t mean Lugo is a lock to move. Passan adds that if the Royals feel they’re still in the Wild Card mix, they could keep the veteran right-hander and make him a qualifying offer when he hits free agency. That would at least ensure them a compensatory draft pick if Lugo walks. That’d come after the first round if he landed at least a $50MM guarantee; it’d come between the end of Competitive Balance Round B and the beginning of the third round (roughly 75th overall) if his contract is below $50MM.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic also suggests that the Royals have yet to decide whether to deal Lugo. He writes that Kansas City feels they’d have a decent chance to re-sign him as a free agent — following a similar path to last winter’s new deal with Michael Wacha after he opted out. If the Royals were to trade Lugo, Rosenthal adds that they’d want controllable outfield help. K.C.’s longstanding issue getting any kind of offense from their outfielders makes that a logical target.

The opt-out clause in Lugo’s contract is a somewhat complicating factor. While he’d very likely be a rental, an acquiring team would assume the risk that he suffers a significant injury in the final two months and then accounts for $15MM in dead money next season. That wouldn’t be detrimental, especially to a high-payroll franchise, but is a downside that teams will want to price into their trade offers if Kansas City shops Lugo.

Bubic, meanwhile, is under arbitration control for another season. The All-Star lefty is playing on a $3MM salary and should push into the $6-7MM range next year. Bubic has a sterling 2.38 ERA with a 24.9% strikeout rate in 113 2/3 innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

Teams might have some workload questions after the injury limited him to 46 1/3 combined frames between 2023-24. There are few potentially available pitchers who are performing better than he is, though, so other clubs are surely calling the Royals to gauge his availability. The extra year of club control makes him a longer shot trade candidate for a K.C. team that’ll expect to compete next season even if they’re soft sellers over the coming eight days.

Padres Have Discussed Dylan Cease With Several Teams

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The Padres have spoken to several teams about the possibility of trading right-hander Dylan Cease, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney. The Cubs, Mets and multiple AL East clubs have had some talks with San Diego, per the report. Separately, Olney’s colleague Jeff Passan also suggests that Cease has come up in trade talks, though that’s framed as other clubs approaching the Padres and not expressly being turned away.

Whether the Padres have initiated talks or whether they’re simply hearing other teams out, the possibility of trading Cease speaks to multiple challenges for San Diego over the next week-plus. The Friars’ farm system is not particularly well regarded beyond its top two prospects, and the team is ostensibly reluctant to part with either Leo De Vries or Ethan Salas. That leaves the Padres with a fairly light slate of prospects from which to deal.

Talks surrounding Cease could also reflect what looked to be the case in the late stages of the offseason: the Padres’ baseball operations staff does not appear to have much financial firepower at its disposal. The new-look ownership structure hasn’t been as keen to spend as the late Peter Seidler. They’re still well north of the luxury tax threshold, but the team’s actual cash payroll is down considerably from its 2023 peak.

The Padres’ late-offseason dealings put a spotlight on that lack of resources. Nick Pivetta’s four-year, $55MM deal pays him just $4MM in the first season of the contract. Catcher Elias Diaz ($3.5MM), lefty Kyle Hart ($1.5MM) and outfielders Connor Joe ($1MM) and Jason Heyward ($1MM) signed one-year contracts valued at a combined $7MM. Their other late additions included minor league deals for Yuli Gurriel, Gavin Sheets, Jose Iglesias and Martin Maldonado. Each cracked the big league roster at the end of camp, but Iglesias’ $3MM base salary was the largest of the bunch.

Trading Cease while still aiming to contend might seem counterintuitive, but the Padres could accomplish multiple goals, in theory. He’s an impending free agent who’s earning $13.75MM this season with about $4.95MM of that sum yet to be paid out. Trimming nearly $5MM off the books would create a decent bit of money to pursue upgrades behind the plate, in left field and perhaps on the bench — all areas of need. It’d also net some prospects of note, any of whom could subsequently be flipped to another team to address various needs on the roster.

Of course, moving Cease would also further deplete a perilously thin rotation. Michael King has been out nearly two months due to shoulder inflammation, and Joe Musgrove is out all season following last year’s Tommy John surgery. With Cease out of the picture, the Padres would be left with Pivetta, Yu Darvish, Stephen Kolek, Randy Vasquez and rookie Ryan Bergert in the rotation — at least until King returns. It’s not a great group, and the depth beyond it is shaky at best.

To that end, Olney further reports that even while discussing Cease, the Padres have been in contact with the Orioles about right-hander Charlie Morton, who’s widely expected to be traded between now and July 31. Morton’s $15MM salary is even larger than that of Cease, so presumably the Padres would be interested only if the Orioles were to include cash to offset a portion of the deal (likely enough so San Diego would owe a good bit less than the $4.95MM left on Cease’s contract).

Morton got out to a terrible start this season but has posted terrific numbers over his past 12 appearances overall (even including a seven-run hiccup his last time out). Since May 10, he’s posted a 3.47 ERA with a 25.9% strikeout rate, a 7.7% walk rate and a 44.2% grounder rate. Metrics like FIP (3.30) and SIERA (3.49) generally support his resurgence. Over that span, Morton has actually outpitched Cease, though Cease’s power arsenal, track record and sustained ability to miss bats would still hold greater appeal to most clubs on the lookout for rotation upgrades.

Cease hasn’t had his best season but has been generally solid since a catastrophic nine-run drubbing in his third start of the year. Dating back to April 14, Cease has pitched 99 innings with a 4.09 ERA, a 30% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate. His swinging-strike rate in that time is nearly 17% — a massive mark — and he’s averaging better than 97 mph on his heater. He’s had some struggles with runners on base this year and at least a little bit of batted-ball misfortune (.319 compared to his .290 mark entering the season), but Cease is still throwing hard, missing bats at a plus rate and limiting walks at an average clip. For any of the Cubs, Mets or any AL East contender, he’d very likely step right into a theoretical playoff rotation, barring a late injury or substantial downturn in results.

Draft Signings: Wood, Fauske, Moss, Hartshorn

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Tuesday featured a handful of draft signings with a $2MM+ bonus. All signings were first reported by Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline unless otherwise noted. View pre-draft scouting reports from Baseball America, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN and Keith Law of The Athletic.

  • The Phillies announced the signing of 26th overall pick Gage Wood. Callis reports that the University of Arkansas product received a $3MM signing bonus that comes in a little south of the approximate $3.49MM slot value. Wood, a 6’0″ right-handed pitcher, is most famous for throwing a 19-strikeout no-hitter against Murray State in this year’s College World Series. Wood pitched out of the bullpen for his first two seasons in Fayetteville. A shoulder injury limited him to 37 2/3 innings during his only year as a starter. He struck out 69 hitters with a 3.82 ERA. Evaluators credit Wood with a fastball that can touch 98 MPH and has huge life at the top of the strike zone, while he has an above-average to plus curveball. His injury history and the lack of a present third pitch leave some scouts to point to a bullpen future.
  • The White Sox have a $3MM deal with second-round pick Jaden Fauske, as first reported by James Fox of Future Sox. The bonus for the Illinois prep outfielder comes in a good amount above the $2.22MM slot value of the 44th selection, signing him away from an LSU commitment. Fauske is listed at 6’3″ and has a well-rounded skillset and a lefty swing that impresses evaluators. He’s viewed as a slightly above-average runner and probably projects to a corner outfield spot.
  • The Rays went above slot to sign supplemental second-rounder Dean Moss to a $2.1MM bonus, Callis reports. He’s a Florida prep outfielder who’d also been committed to LSU. The 67th overall pick comes with a slot value around $1.29MM. Moss is a left-handed batter whose carrying trait is his advanced hit tool. He’s viewed as an average runner who’d be stretched in center field but doesn’t have prototypical power for a corner outfielder.
  • The Cubs signed sixth-round pick Josiah Hartshorn to a $2MM bonus that represents the highest ever for that round, Callis reports. The slot value was around $355K. Hartshorn is a high schooler from California. He’s a 6’2″ switch-hitter who projects as a corner outfielder. Most pre-draft reports had him outside the top 100, but ESPN placed him as the #53 prospect in the class. The Cubs were able to sign him away from a Texas A&M commitment in large part because they saved roughly $1.2MM against their bonus pool with an underslot deal for first-round pick Ethan Conrad.

Cubs Interested In Eugenio Suárez, Kyle Finnegan

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The Cubs are clear buyers heading into next week’s deadline and are looking for upgrades. Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic report that Eugenio Suárez of the Diamondbacks and Kyle Finnegan of the Nationals are two names on their radar.

Chicago’s third base situation has been unsettled for a while. They acquired Isaac Paredes at last year’s deadline but then flipped him to Houston in the offseason as part of the Kyle Tucker trade. That seemingly opened the door for top prospect Matt Shaw to take over at the hot corner, though the Cubs also hung around the Alex Bregman market into the middle of February.

Bregman ultimately signed with the Red Sox, which left the door open for Shaw, but he hasn’t seized the job. In 239 major league plate appearances, Shaw has a .210/.285/.304 batting line. That’s still a small sample of work and he could still emerge as a viable big leaguer, but third base is the most obvious weak spot in Chicago’s otherwise excellent lineup.

The Cubs have already been connected to Ke’Bryan Hayes, but Suárez is a more sensible solution at the hot corner. Hayes is a glove-first player with poor offense and is signed through 2029. He also plays for a division rival, which often complicates trade talks.

Suárez isn’t as strong a defender but has been on fire at the plate over the past year-plus. Dating back to July 7th of last year, he has 59 home runs, a .281/.336/.611 batting line and a 156 wRC+. Only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have more home runs in that span. Suárez is also a rental, which could be appealing to the Cubs. He could take over third base for the rest of the year, then depart in free agency. The Cubs could then decide in the offseason if they want to give Shaw another shot at earning the job or pursue alternatives.

Adding that kind of bat would be sensible for a lot of clubs but it’s still unclear if the Diamondbacks will make him available. They have suffered a significant number of injuries that have set them back this year, but they’re not totally buried. Every time it seems their season is over, they win a few more games to stay alive. They just swept the Cardinals over the weekend and are only 4.5 games out of a playoff spot. Suárez ripped four homers in that series to help fuel the victories.

If the D-backs decide to sell, they could really cash in. In addition to Suárez, they have Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Josh Naylor as high-profile impending free agents, in addition to guys like Randal Grichuk, Jalen Beeks, Shelby Miller and Kendall Graveman. They have reportedly listened to offers on some of their controllable non-Corbin Carroll outfielders.

Trading that group would bring back a haul of young talent but also punt the season. Per The Athletic, the Snakes will wait into next week to decide what to do, so the Cubs will also have to think about other options for third base. Even if Suárez is available, there will be lots of other clubs with interest. As mentioned, Hayes is one names the Cubs have also considered. Other potential options include Yoán Moncada, Ryan McMahon, Miguel Andujar or the Mets’ many young infielders.

As for Finnegan, that’s a pretty straightforward target. Almost all contending clubs look to make bullpen additions ahead of the deadline. Per The Athletic, the Cubs are fine with Daniel Palencia as the closer but are just looking to strengthen the bullpen more generally.

Finnegan has been Washington’s closer for a few years now but it’s been suggested that he should probably be in a setup role on a better club, as he doesn’t strike out as many opponents as a typical closer. This year, he has saved 19 games for the Nats but blown six other chances. In 36 innings, he has a 4.25 earned run average and subpar 19.3% strikeout rate, though his 46.7% ground ball rate is solid.

He’s also been better in the past, including last year. In 2024, Finnegan had a 3.68 ERA and 22.1% strikeout rate, though it was a tale of two seasons. He had a 2.45 ERA in the first half but then a 5.79 ERA in the second half after the Nationals surprisingly opted not to trade him. Washington wound up non-tendering Finnegan and then re-signing him to a one-year contract.

If Finnegan were no longer in a closing role, perhaps manager Craig Counsell could find ways to bring him into a game against opponents that he matches up well against, as opposed to just throwing him out there in the ninth inning regardless. Finnegan feels like a lock to get traded as an impending free agent on a poor club, but the Cubs will probably be one of several teams checking in.

Financially, the Cubs should have lots of room to work with this month. They paid the competitive balance tax last year but are well below it this year. RosterResource pegs them around $218MM right now, which is roughly $23MM below the base threshold. Even if they want to avoid the tax this year, that’s a lot of wiggle room. Suárez is making $15MM this year, meaning there will be about $5MM left to be paid out at the deadline. Finnegan is making $6MM, which will only leave $2MM left to be paid out at the deadline. It’s actually even cheaper than that since $4MM of the money in his deal is deferred without interest.

Photo courtesy of Ron Chenoy, Imagn Images

Notable Draft Signings: July 18-19th, 2025

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Here’s a roundup of players from the recent draft who were signed or agreed to terms in the past two days. For an arbitrary cutoff, this post will focus on players taken before the second round or any later picks who signed a bonus of $2MM or more. Pre-draft rankings and scouting reports are provided by Keith Law of the Athletic, Baseball America, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

  • The Cubs have signed outfielder Ethan Conrad to a bonus of $3,563,100, per Jim Callis of MLB.com. Conrad was selected 17th overall, a pick that comes with a $4,750,800 slot. Since the Cubs are saving over a million on their first-round pick, they should have lots of leeway to lock up the remaining players in their class.
  • The Tigers have signed shortstop Jordan Yost with a $3.25MM bonus, per Callis. Yost went 24th overall, a pick that comes with a slot value of $3,726,300. Per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, Detroit has also agreed to terms with their second pick, catcher Michael Oliveto. Selected in the competitive balance A round, 34th overall, his $2.45MM signing bonus is below his $2,827,300 slot value. Between Yost and Oliveto, the Tigers have saved close to a million bucks, which can be redirected to the other guys they drafted.
  • The Orioles have signed catcher Caden Bodine with a $3,113,300 bonus, per Callis. Callis also relays that shortstop Wehiwa Aloy has signed for $3,042,800. Bodine and Aloy were taken 30th and 31st respectively, with the compensation picks the O’s received for Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander rejecting qualifying offers and signing elsewhere. Both bonuses were full slot value for their respective picks. The O’s also signed first-rounder Ike Irish to a bonus right around slot value, so they’ve played things pretty straight-up with their top three picks.
  • The Brewers announced that they have signed shortstop Brady Ebel, the son of Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel. The younger Ebel was selected 32nd overall, the pick the Brewers received for Willy Adames rejecting a qualifying offer and signing elsewhere. That pick comes with a $2.97MM slot value. The signing bonus has not yet been publicly reported. [UPDATE: Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo reports that Ebel signed for a below-slot $2.75MM bonus.]
  • The Mariners have agreed to terms with 19 of their draft picks, reports Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. Top pick Kade Anderson’s bonus was previously reported. The M’s also gave catcher Luke Stevenson a bonus of $2.8MM and shortstop Nick Becker $2.75MM. Stevenson was taken in the competitive balance A round, 33rd overall. This bonus comes in just barely above the $2.76MM slot for that pick. Becker was selected in the second round 57th overall, a pick that comes with a slot of $1.64MM. Anderson’s bonus was about $700K under slot and it seems the M’s redirected those savings to get Becker to sign. Callis reported the Stevenson bonus earlier today.
  • The Yankees have signed shortstop Dax Kilby to a $2.8MM bonus, per Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. Kilby was selected 39th overall, though that was actually the club’s top pick. Their first-rounder was pushed back ten spots because they went over the third competitive balance tax threshold last year. Slot for the pick was $2,509,500, so they went a bit over to get him to sign.
  • The Rays signed outfielder Brendan Summerhill to a $1,997,500 bonus, per Callis. He was selected 42nd overall, in competitive balance round A. Slot value for that pick was $2,331,000, so the Rays saved a bit on this one. The Rays also went below-slot to sign first-round Daniel Pierce, so they have lots of extra powder for the rest of their class.
  • The Cardinals signed shortstop Ryan Mitchell to a $2.25MM bonus, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Mitchell was taken in the second round, 55th overall. The slot for that pick is $1,720,300, so the Cards went about half a million above to get this one done. They saved close to a million when signing first-rounder Liam Doyle, so it seems some of those savings were used to ink Mitchell.

Photo courtesy of Dylan Widger, Imagn Images

Trevor Cahill Retires

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Right-hander Trevor Cahill has officially retired after 18 professional seasons, agent John Boggs told Newsweek’s Jon Paul Hoornstra.  Cahill’s retirement was initially noted by the Gastonia Ghost Peppers of the independent Atlantic League, after the 37-year-old Cahill made two appearances in a comeback attempt this summer.

Before his Atlantic League work this year, Cahill’s last appearance in pro ball came when he tossed 20 2/3 innings in the Mets farm system in 2022.  That stint in New York’s organization came on the heels of a 13-year run in the majors that saw Cahill toss 1507 2/3 innings with nine different clubs.

A second-round pick for the Athletics in the 2006 draft, Cahill broke into the Show by throwing 178 2/3 innings in his 2009 rookie season, and then followed up that workhorse year with a 2.97 ERA over 196 2/3 frames in 2010.  The latter performance earned Cahill an All-Star nod, a ninth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting, and a five-year, $30.5MM contract extension in April 2011.  Cahill’s five-year pact stood as the longest guaranteed deal the A’s gave to any player until this year, when the club inked long-term extensions with Lawrence Butler (seven years) and Brent Rooker (five years).

Despite the seeming contractual security, Cahill found himself on the move by December 2011, when he was dealt to the Diamondbacks as part of a five-player swap.  He posted decent results in Arizona’s rotation in 2012-13 before running into struggles during the 2014 season that carried into 2015, and after bouncing around from the D’Backs to the Braves to the Dodgers to the Cubs all within a five-month span, Cahill reinvented himself as a reliever in Chicago.  Cahill worked out of the pen in 60 of his 61 appearances with the Cubs over the 2015-16 seasons, posting a 2.61 ERA and earning a World Series ring for his work with the streak-busting 2016 squad (though Cahill didn’t see any action during Chicago’s playoff run).

Cahill returned to rotation work after signing a free agent deal with the Padres during the 2016-17 offseason, and that kicked off a stretch of Cahill pitching for six different clubs (including a return stint with Oakland in 2018) over his final five Major League seasons.  The results were very inconsistent, as Cahill started to run into some problems with the home run ball, and his usual grounder-heavy approach had some built-in variance depending on his defenses and batted-ball luck.

For his career, Cahill finished with a 4.26 ERA in 361 games (233 of them starts).  While only posting a 17.8% career strikeout rate, Cahill had a knack for keeping the ball on the ground for much of his career, with a 54% groundball rate.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Cahill on a fine career, and wish him all the best in his post-playing days.

Cubs To Sign Spencer Turnbull

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The Cubs are in agreement on a deal with right-hander Spencer Turnbull, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He was released by the Blue Jays late last month. It’s not yet clear whether the Boras Corporation client is headed to the Cubs on a big league contract or a minor league deal. Either way, he’ll provide some depth to a rotation that has seen several injuries this season.

The 32-year-old Turnbull enjoyed a strong showing with the 2024 Phillies, pitching to a 2.65 ERA in 54 1/3 innings but missing ample time on the injured list. He lingered in free agency throughout the entire offseason and only signed with Toronto in early May, well after the season was underway, for a prorated $1.27MM salary. The Jays ultimately received only three appearances for that modest investment. Turnbull struggled in the minors while ramping up and couldn’t get on track in his limited MLB work either, yielding five runs on 12 hits and four walks with four strikeouts in 6 1/3 big league frames.

Turnbull’s velocity never got up to its typical levels, though that’s perhaps not a huge surprise for a late signee who went through an accelerated buildup. The right-hander sat 89.7 mph with his four-seamer in the minors and was up to 90.9 mph in the majors — both noticeably south of the 92 mph he averaged in Philadelphia last year and the 92.9 mph at which he sat with the Tigers in 2023.

Although this year’s performance doesn’t stand out, Turnbull has been a generally productive pitcher when healthy enough to take the mound. He posted a 4.61 ERA and 3.99 FIP in his first full season at the majors with Detroit back in 2019, tossing 148 1/3 frames. From 2020-24, Turnbull improved to a 3.84 ERA with a 22% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate –albeit in a sample of just 192 innings over that five-year period.

Injuries have regularly interrupted Turnbull’s path to establishing himself as a credible big league starter. He missed the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery and has also had notable Il stints in his career for lat, back, shoulder, forearm and neck injuries. Turnbull has worked primarily as a starter in the majors — 68 starts, 13 relief outings — but still has only 363 innings under his belt due to that deluge of health troubles.

The Cubs aren’t going to blindly count on Turnbull to hold down a rotation spot from this point forth, but he’ll give them another option to evaluate at a time when Justin Steele is done for the season and when Javier Assad (oblique) and Jameson Taillon (calf) are on the injured list. Assad has yet to pitch this season. Chicago also recently optioned young righty Ben Brown to Triple-A amid some notable struggles.

At the moment, the Cubs’ rotation includes Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton and Colin Rea. Swingman Chris Flexen made a spot start last Friday but has otherwise been used in long relief, where he’s been excellent. The Cubs are widely expected to add at least one starter — if not two — between now and the July 31 trade deadline. The signing of Turnbull doesn’t change that likelihood but does add some further depth in the event of additional injuries to the current staff.

Yankees Interested In Mitch Keller

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The Yankees have shown interest in Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They’re one of several clubs in the running for the 29-year-old righty, who’s signed for three additional years beyond the current season. Both the Mets and Cubs have been tied to Keller in recent weeks. Hiles adds that the Cubs currently view Keller more of a backup option in their rotation search, while the Mets are “very” interested.

Interest in Keller is only natural for the Yankees, who’ll be prominent players in the starting pitching market over the next two weeks. GM Brian Cashman acknowledged as much recently when indicating that pitching will be his top priority this summer. New York lost Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery before the season even began. Clarke Schmidt met the same fate earlier this month. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil still hasn’t pitched this season due to a lat strain. Lefty Ryan Yarbrough has also been out nearly a month due to an oblique strain.

At the moment, the Yankees have Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and rookies Will Warren and Cam Schlittler in the rotation. The hope is that Gil, who’s already on a minor league rehab assignment, can strengthen that group soon. In theory, Yarbrough shouldn’t be far behind, but he’s yet to begin a rehab stint. That assumes no setbacks and a return to pre-injury form though — neither of which is a guarantee.

Keller has started 20 games for Pittsburgh and boasts a 3.48 ERA. He’s punched out 18.7% of his opponents and turned in a career-low 5.5% walk rate. Keller has been on a particularly strong run of late, pitching into the sixth inning or later in 13 consecutive starts and compiling a 3.04 ERA over 80 innings in that time. Ten of those appearances have been quality starts. Dating back to 2022, Keller is tied for the seventh-most starts (112) and tenth-most innings (650 1/3) in all of Major League Baseball.

Bringing Keller into the fold would make sense both to help this season and to provide some future stability. Stroman is a free agent at season’s end. Neither Warren nor Schlittler has cemented himself as a long-term rotation cog yet. Cole’s rehab will probably extend beyond Opening Day next year. Schmidt, given the timing of his surgery, won’t make it back to the mound until at least late next year — possibly not until 2027.

Keller would add durability to that group and create the possibility of a very strong midseason rotation next year. Health for all parties can’t necessarily be assumed, but there’d be a real chance that by June or so, the Yankees could deploy a rotation including Cole, Fried, Rodon, Keller and Gil, with Warren and Schlittler as the sixth and seventh arms on the depth chart. That sort of depth would rank among the best in baseball.

There are other factors to consider. Keller is midway through the second season of a five-year, $77MM contract. He’s being paid $15MM in 2025 and will earn salaries of $16.5MM, $18MM and $20MM over the next three seasons. That’s fine value for a mid-rotation arm of Keller’s caliber — particularly if you believe there’s still a bit of untapped upside in the former second-round pick and top prospect — but the Yankees would be on the hook for a good bit more than that due to their luxury tax status.

As of this writing, Keller has about $5.89MM of this year’s salary yet to be paid out. Add that to his future salaries and he’s still owed about $60.39MM over the next three-plus seasons. The Yankees would be taxed at a 110% clip on the roughly $17.8MM annual value of that remainder — assuming they remain in the top tier of luxury penalization moving forward, which seems like a good bet.

RosterResource projects the Yankees with about $187MM of luxury obligations in 2026, and that’s before factoring in arbitration raises for Jazz Chisholm Jr., Anthony Volpe, Fernando Cruz, Schmidt and Gil. Keller would add another $17.8MM to that number, and the Yankees will be in the market for help at third base, center field and in the bullpen this winter (depending on their trade deadline activity, of course). Each of Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver is a free agent in a few months. Even if the Yankees were able to drop down into only the third tier of penalization, they’d still pay a 90% tax on Keller’s remaining annual value.

If the Pirates do move Keller, they’ll presumably be most motivated by MLB-ready position players. Pittsburgh is deep in intriguing young arms (and just added another, Seth Hernandez, with the sixth overall pick in the 2025 draft) but hasn’t had much success in terms of developing young hitters. That’s not to say they’d have no interest in further stockpiling young pitching, but their aim over the next couple weeks is surely to add at least a few young hitters of note to help bolster a stagnant offense that ranks last in the majors in runs scored, home runs and slugging percentage.

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