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Cubs Notes: Hendricks, Assad, Rotation

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Veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks exited his start against the Angels today after just two innings of work, replaced by right-hander Colten Brewer to start the third inning. The Cubs later announced (as relayed by Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic) that Hendricks had exited his start due to lower back tightness.

The 2024 season has been a brutal one for the 34-year-old righty, as he’s struggled to an eye-popping 7.48 ERA with a 5.34 FIP in 61 1/3 innings of work entering play today. That rough performance saw the righty move to the bullpen earlier this season, although injuries elsewhere on the roster combined with a month’s worth of solid results (he posted a 2.67 ERA and 2.97 FIP in 27 inning from May 23 to June 25) allowed him to move back into the rotation in late June. Now, his status appears to be in question once again after his exit today due to an injury similar to one Hendricks already missed three weeks due to earlier this year.

Fortunately, Hendricks told reporters (as noted by Tony Andracki of Marquee Sports Network) after the game that the issue isn’t the same problem that caused him to miss time back in May. The veteran noted that he first felt his back lock up yesterday, and that while the pain lingered today he and the club decided to go ahead with his start in hopes he could manage the tightness. Hendricks expressed confidence that he would be able to make his next start, although manager Craig Counsell was more cautious, noting that it wasn’t yet clear if Hendricks would be ready to take the ball in time.

That could be a problem for the Cubs, as while they have a day off on Monday they’re scheduled to play seven games in six days after that in the run-up to the All Star break, including a doubleheader against the Cardinals on July 13. If Hendricks is unable to make one of those starts, that would leave the Cubs with just three healthy regular starters (Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon) amid injuries to Javier Assad, Ben Brown, and Jordan Wicks. Swingman Hayden Wesneski has joined the rotation in recent days despite struggling badly in the bullpen throughout the month of June and figures to continue chipping in for starts while the rest of the rotation gets healthy, but if Hendricks is unable to make one of those starts that still leaves the club in need of two more starters before the break.

Counsell suggested to reporters (including Andracki) after the game that Assad could return from the right forearm extensor strain that sidelined him late last month in time to make one of those starts, noting that the club is “optimistic” that he can contribute in the big leagues next weekend. If Assad, who has posted a solid 3.04 ERA across 16 starts despite a middling 4.16 FIP this year, can return while Hendricks avoids an IL stint of his own that would solve the club’s short-term rotation questions. If Hendricks doesn’t recover quickly enough to take the ball over the weekend, however, that would leave the club in search of innings just before the All Star break.

Speculatively speaking, the Cubs could tap veteran southpaw Drew Smyly to make one of those starts. The lefty started 23 games for Chicago last year but has been used exclusively out of the bullpen to this point in the 2024 campaign and last threw even 40 pitches in an outing back on April 5. Top prospect Cade Horton is at the Triple-A level but won’t be an option amid a shutdown due to a subscapularis strain last month. Journeyman lefty Thomas Pannone has made 18 starts for the club at Triple-A this year, but has posted mediocre results (4.57 ERA in 86 2/3 innings) and would need to be added to the club’s 40-man roster. A bullpen game could be another possibility for the club, but that may be a tall order for a relief corps that has already lost Wesneski to the rotation while Yency Almonte, Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. are all shelved with injuries of their own and had to cover seven innings in relief of Hendricks today.

Cubs Sign Christian Bethancourt To Minor League Deal

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Christian Bethancourt has signed a minor league contract with the Cubs, according to his transaction log on MLB.com. The journeyman catcher was released by the Marlins last week. The Cubs will be his ninth MLB organization since he made his big league debut with the Braves in 2013.

Bethancourt failed to make much of an impression over his first five MLB seasons, appearing in 161 games for the Braves and Padres between 2013-17 and slashing .222/.252/.316 with a 52 wRC+. He did not play in the majors from 2018-21, bouncing between the Brewers, Phillies, and Pirates organizations, with a brief stopover in the KBO during the 2019 campaign.

At 30 years old, Bethancourt finally returned to the major leagues in 2022, appearing in 56 games for the Athletics and playing well enough to catch the attention of the Rays ahead of the trade deadline. He continued to play well with Tampa Bay down the stretch, finishing the season with a league-average 100 wRC+ and 1.8 FanGraphs WAR.

Unfortunately, Bethancourt did not find the same success in 2023. While he made Tampa Bay’s Opening Day roster and played 102 games behind the dish, he finished the season with just a 74 wRC+. His defensive numbers took a hit as well; he caught 13 of 30 would-be base stealers in 2022 but only 13 of 57 the following year. His pitch-framing numbers also declined, according to metrics from both FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

The Rays flipped Bethancourt to the Marlins over the offseason, and his offensive struggles have only gotten worse in 2024. He slashed .159/.198/.268 over 38 games in Miami before he was designated for assignment in mid-June. He was released shortly thereafter. Bethancourt will now join the Triple-A Iowa Cubs as he strives to get his next big league opportunity on the North Side of Chicago. The Cubs have gotten very little production from their catchers this year; the only team whose catchers have a lower OPS or wRC+ is the Marlins. Currently, Tomás Nido and Miguel Amaya are the only two backstops on Chicago’s 40-man roster. Presumably, Bethancourt is now the next catcher on the depth chart.

Cubs’ Yency Almonte To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

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7:18 pm: Almonte has chosen to undergo shoulder surgery, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Cubs reliever is expected miss the rest of the 2024 season.

12:28 pm:Yency Almonte hasn’t pitched since May 7 due to a right shoulder strain, and continued discomfort in his shoulder has led to a possible crossroads in how the Cubs right-hander plans to deal with the injury.  Manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) that Almonte recently received a less-than-positive second opinion on his ailing shoulder, and is “thinking about what to do here” in possibly pursuing surgery.  For now, Almonte has been shut down from throwing while he recovers and decides on his next step.

The exact nature of the surgery isn’t yet known, but it would almost certainly seem that Almonte would miss the rest of the 2024 season, and could potentially be facing an absence of up to a year, based on timelines of more serious shoulder-related procedures undergone by other pitchers in the past.  Whatever the case, it’s a tough outcome for Almonte, who was posting some solid numbers before going on the IL.

Acquired from the Dodgers alongside Michael Busch last January, Almonte had a 3.45 ERA over 15 2/3 innings and 17 appearances for the Cubs.  His 11.9% walk rate was on the high side and Almonte was benefiting from a .222 BABIP, but a 29.9% strikeout rate and just one homer allowed in those 15 2/3 frames.  After relying heavily on a sweeper in 2022-23, Almonte was using his sinker and sweeper in more or less equal measure this season, which also helped set up his 94mph fastball.

Analytics aside, Almonte’s 2024 success could’ve also perhaps been inevitable because it is an even year.  The right-hander has yo-yo’d between good and bad years throughout his seven MLB seasons, with the trend of quality numbers in the even years and struggles in the odd years.  Case in point, Almonte’s Dodgers tenure included an 1.02 ERA in 35 1/3 innings in 2022, followed up by a 5.06 ERA over 48 innings with Los Angeles in 2023 before a knee sprain ended his season in mid-August.

Unfortunately, the injury bug now seems to have thrown a wrench into Almonte’s usual career pattern.  He was already moved off the Cubs’ 40-man roster when he was shifted to the 60-day IL last week.  The Cubs have another year of arbitration control over Almonte for the 2025 season, and while a non-tender is certainly possible depending on his health status, Chicago might still issue him a contract since Almonte would receive only a minimal raise on his $1.9MM salary for 2024.

Almonte is one of five relievers on the Cubs’ injured list, and relief pitching was already an issue for Chicago even before such a big chunk of the bullpen was sidelined.  On the positive side, Counsell and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy recently told MLB.com and other media that Julian Merryweather is nearing a minor league rehab assignment, and Mark Leiter Jr. threw a 30-pitch bullpen session Wednesday and might be able to return next week without going on a rehab stint.

Orioles, Vinny Nittoli Agree To Minor League Deal

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Right-hander Vinny Nittoli and the Orioles have agreed to a deal, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com on X. The righty will report to Triple-A Norfolk. Earlier today, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reported on X that the righty had elected free agency. He was designated for assignment by the Cubs last week but passed through waivers unclaimed.

It was just over a week ago that Nittoli elected free agency after he was outrighted by the Athletics. That led to him signing a major league deal with the Cubs, though he was bounced off the roster one day later without appearing in a game as the Cubs selected Jorge López. He’s out of options and also has the right to reject outright assignments by virtue of having previously been outrighted in his career, with both of those factors contributing to his many transactions in recent days.

The 33-year-old Nittoli signed a minor league deal with the A’s in the offseason and started the season pitching well in Triple-A. He tossed 23 1/3 innings for Sacramento, allowing 2.70 earned runs per nine. His 11% walk rate was on the high side but he also struck out 36% of batters faced and got grounders on 45.1% of balls in play. He may have benefited from an 82.7% strand rate but was also pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and allowed a .347 batting average on balls in play.

That got him called up to the big leagues and he continued putting up good numbers, allowing just two earned runs in eight innings pitched for the A’s. He only punched out 15.6% of major league hitters but in a small sample of work. Despite that fairly solid performance, he lost his roster spot with Oakland and has been in suitcase mode for over a week now, thanks to getting that Cubs deal but then promptly being DFA’d again.

For the O’s, there’s no real risk in bringing him aboard via a minor league deal and getting an up-close look at him. As mentioned, he was racking up strikeouts in bunches in Triple-A earlier this year. This is his fourth straight season with MLB work but he’s never had a lengthy stretch in the show, currently with just 14 2/3 total innings on his résumé from those four seasons. In 159 Triple-A innings since the start of 2021, he has a 4.19 ERA. His 29.8% strikeout rate in that time is strong and his 8.3% walk rate close to average, but his 29 home runs allowed have pushed the ERA up.

If he can earn his way onto Baltimore’s roster, his grip on a spot may be tenuous, as it was with the A’s and Cubs. Though if he happens to have a roster spot at season’s end, he can be retained well into the future since he has less than a year of service time.

Cubs Sign Jake Hager To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs signed infielder Jake Hager to a minor league contract over the weekend. Hager appeared in one game for their complex affiliate in Arizona. According to the transaction log at MLB.com, he’s now headed to Triple-A Iowa.

A right-handed hitter, Hager has 42 games of major league experience between the Mets and Diamondbacks. He hit .197/.307/.224 with 31 strikeouts in 89 plate appearances in limited action between 2021-22. Hager spent most of last season in Triple-A with Arizona. He had a down year, running a .245/.301/.415 slash in the Pacific Coast League, and was released in August.

Hager was the 32nd overall pick of the 2011 draft coming out of high school. He has appeared in parts of seven seasons at Triple-A across five organizations (not including Chicago). In just over 500 games there, he owns a .242/.301/.389 line. Hager has spent most of his time in the minors at shortstop, though he also has ample experience at both second and third base (with scattered appearances in the outfield).

Chicago lost some minor league infield depth when Nick Madrigal broke his hand a few weeks ago. They’re light on experienced Triple-A infielders, making Hager a straightforward fit as a depth option.

The Risk/Reward Of Acquiring Players With Opt-Outs

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With four weeks until the trade deadline, a lot remains uncertain. Most teams still find themselves in a muddled middle and will wait until the last few days to determine how aggressively they'll buy or sell. That's especially true in the National League, where nine teams are within six games of one another as they fight for the final two Wild Card spots. The Mets, Giants and Cubs are among those borderline contenders. It wouldn't be especially surprising to see any of them wind up as sellers depending on how they play over the next few weeks.

The Mets are the NL's top non-playoff team and approaching the deadline as a buyer for the moment. Dropping a few games back in the standings by the end of the month could change that mentality. San Francisco and Chicago are a little further out and perhaps likelier sellers. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested late last week that the team would need to perform better to avoid a sell-off. Why focus on those three specifically? Each has a notable player who'd be desirable trade candidates if not for their contract structures.

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Jed Hoyer Discusses Trade Deadline, Cubs’ Struggles

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The Cubs’ 4-2 loss to the Brewers Friday dropped Chicago to a 38-45 record, and a .458 winning percentage that tops only the Marlins and Rockies among all National League teams.  With a 17-31 mark in their last 48 games, the Cubs simply haven’t been playing good baseball for the better part of two months, leading to a lot of speculation about the team’s plans heading into the July 30 trade deadline.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer addressed this topic and many others when speaking with reporters (including The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and ESPN’s Jesse Rogers) prior to yesterday’s game, saying “I don’t think it’s time yet for that full conversation” given that the deadline is still a month out.  However, Hoyer admitted that “we’ve backed ourselves into a bit of a corner” and things needs to turn around quickly.

“We have to play well this month,” Hoyer said.  “I think you have to be a realist when you get to that point….You have to make the best decisions for the organization based on the hand you’re dealt that year.  We’ll see what that is.”

It was just last season that the Cubs were 45-51 on July 20 before rattling off an eight-game winning streak that convinced Hoyer to make moves to bolster the roster at the deadline, rather than sell.  Jeimer Candelario was acquired in a trade with the Nationals and helped Chicago post a scoring 18-9 record in August 2023, though a late-season fade left the team just short of a playoff berth.

If the Cubs get on track with another big win streak, or if they keep losing at this pace, Hoyer’s deadline decision will be relatively easy.  Given the team’s win-now mode and the investments made in the roster, it might also be fair to say that the Cubs will be more prone to adding at the deadline if they’re even near the .500 mark but still within striking distance in the wild card race.  (Even now, Chicago is just five games out of the last NL wild card berth.)

Turning to how the Wrigleyville squad might approach selling, their same roster-building endeavors also lead to a lack of obvious trade candidates.  As Rogers notes, most of the Cubs’ roster is under longer-term control, either via contracts or players under arbitration control.  While Chicago hasn’t played well, the idea of the Cubs blowing things up and having a fire sale of their core simply isn’t realistic, so any deadline selling would surely be made with an eye towards contending in 2025.

Hector Neris and Kyle Hendricks are free agents this winter and Neris’ track record would lead to some interest from bullpen-needy teams, even though he and Hendricks have both struggled for much of the season.  Cody Bellinger can become a free agent if he opts out of the last two years and $52.5MM of his current contract, though his decent but unspectacular play creates some doubt as to whether or not an opt-out would lead to Bellinger finally landing a big-ticket multi-year contract.  This same gray area in regards to Bellinger’s status as a rental or a possible longer-term piece would impact his possible status as a trade candidate come the deadline.

The Cubs opted to keep Bellinger at last year’s trade deadline, though it could be a different story this year barring another July surge.  “Teams like the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers have recently had a noticeable scouting presence around the” Cubs, according to The Athletic’s Will Sammon, Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney, and Ken Rosenthal, and Bellinger has long been linked to the Yankees on the rumor mill.  The 37-45 Rangers are in even worse shape than the Cubs, but the defending World Series champs are another team who could pivot to selling if they can start winning in July.

Until the deadline nears, all Hoyer and his front office can do is hope their struggling lineup and bullpen in particular perform better.  Hoyer’s disappointment was clear, as he said “when you look at where we’ve performed this year with a team that’s stronger [on paper], it’s lesser.  Is that frustrating to me?  Absolutely.  If it’s frustrating to me, I have to imagine it’s frustrating to the fans.”

Cubs Select Jorge López

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The Cubs made some roster moves today, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic among those to relay them on X, swapping in two right-handed relievers for two others. They have recalled Ethan Roberts and selected Jorge López to the roster. In corresponding moves, Keegan Thompson has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right rib fracture while Vinny Nittoli has been designated for assignment.

López, 31, had a high-profile departure from the Mets earlier this year, which was thoroughly documented at the time. He then landed with the Cubs on a minor league deal a couple of weeks ago. He reported to the club’s Complex League affiliate and allowed three runs in one inning there, but then moved to Triple-A Iowa and had better results there with three scoreless appearances over the past week.

The righty was an elite reliever for a time in 2022 but has been less impressive over the past two years or so. In 44 appearances with the Orioles in 2022, he had a 1.68 earned run average, 27.6% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and 60% ground ball rate. But he was traded to the Twins at that year’s deadline and has since bounced to the Marlins, back to the O’s, the Mets and now the Cubs. Since that trade almost two years ago, he has a 5.08 ERA, 18% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 48% ground ball rate.

There’s little risk for the Cubs in giving him a shot, as the Mets are on the hook for the bulk of his $2MM salary. The Cubs will only have to pay the prorated version of the $740K minimum for whatever time López spends on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Mets pay. But it’s the latest in a series of moves that has seen the Cubs rotate various castoffs from other clubs through their bullpen as they struggle to develop or sign quality relievers, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams looked at earlier today for Front Office subscribers. The club’s relievers have a collective 4.45 ERA on the year, better than just seven other clubs, part of the reason why they are 38-44 and at the back of the pack in the Wild Card race.

Another pitcher in this carousel is Nittoli. He was designated for assignment by the Athletics a week ago and elected free agency after clearing waivers. He landed a big league deal with the Cubs yesterday but has now been bounced off without making an appearance for them. He’ll now be in DFA limbo yet again and could perhaps end up back in free agency, since that’s how things played out just a few days ago.

He has pitched in the four most recent MLB seasons but has just 14 2/3 innings pitched in the big leagues with a 3.07 ERA in that time. In 159 Triple-A innings since the start of 2021, he has a 4.19 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate.

As for Thompson, it’s unclear how serious his injury is or how much time he’s expected to miss. He has a 3.50 ERA in 18 innings for the Cubs this year, striking out 33.8% of batters faced but also giving out walks at a 13% clip.

The Cubs Keep Trying The Same Thing, And It’s Not Working

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While the Cubs' 2024 season got out to a strong start that saw them sitting a season-high seven games above .500 on May 12, things have spiraled quickly. Since opening the year 24-17, Chicago has played at an abysmal 14-27 clip. That's six and a half weeks of .341 ball that has dropped them to 38-44 -- last place in the National League Central. They're 10.5 games back of the Brewers for the division lead. A four-game deficit in the NL Wild Card race normally wouldn't seem insurmountable, but it's a bit more daunting when a whopping seven teams stand between them and the final Wild Card spot.

There's no shortage of flaws with the current iteration of the Cubs. They're tied for 21st in the majors in home runs, tied for 18th in runs scored and tied for 24th in both batting average and slugging percentage. They've received no production at all from their catchers. On the pitching side, the rotation has had its share of health-related struggles. Justin Steele missed all of April and another start in May. Javier Assad just joined fellow young starters Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks on the injured list. The Cubs' defense has been middle-of-the-pack, at best.

There's one glaring struggle that's plagued them again and again in recent years, however, and one of the driving reasons behind it is easy to see.

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Cubs Place Javier Assad On Injured List

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The Cubs made some roster moves today, with Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune among those to relay them on X. As was previously reported, the Cubs signed right-hander Vinny Nittoli. To open a spot for him on the active roster, fellow righty Javier Assad has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right forearm extensor strain. Righty Yency Almonte was transferred to the 60-day IL to give Nittoli a 40-man spot. Assad’s move is retroactive to June 24, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times on X.

At this point, it’s unclear how severe Assad’s injury is or how long the club expects him to be out of action, but it’ll be a blow for them regardless. Assad has made 16 starts for the club so far this year, allowing 3.04 earned runs per nine innings. There’s probably a bit of good luck in that number, as Assad’s 83.3% strand rate and .276 batting average on balls in play are both on the fortunate side. His 4.16 FIP and 4.22 SIERA suggest he would have trouble maintaining that kind of run prevention going forward.

Regardless, it’s still less than ideal for the Cubs to lose yet another arm to the injured list. They recently had Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks land on the IL, which forced Kyle Hendricks back into a rotation role, after he struggled earlier in the year and got kicked to the bullpen. The bullpen has also been undercut by injuries, with Almonte, Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. all on the shelf.

Around all of those injuries, the club has been falling in the standings. They were 18-12 at the end of April but have gone 19-32 since, putting them at 37-44 at the moment. That’s still just five games back of a playoff spot in the weak National League Wild Card standings, but they’re currently the worst team in the NL apart from the Marlins and Rockies. That gives them a slim margin for error with the deadline just over a month away and losing a solid rotation member like Assad for even just a few weeks doesn’t help.

Without Assad, the rotation consists of Hendricks, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga. They will need to come up with a fifth starter soon and also play seven games in six days just before the All-Star break, thanks to a July 13 double-header in St. Louis. Hayden Wesneski made a spot start yesterday, tossing four innings, and could perhaps get the ball again in the coming days. Drew Smyly has plenty of starting experience but has been in a relief role this year. Top pitching prospect Cade Horton is shut down with a subscapularis strain and unavailable at the moment. Thomas Pannone, Dan Straily and Kyle McGowin are in the system on minor league deals and stretched out in the minors, though none of that trio currently has a roster spot.

As for Almonte, he’s been on the injured list since May 8 due to a shoulder strain. This transfer means he can’t be reinstated until 60 days from that date, which would be July 7. He wasn’t going to be ready before then anyhow. A few days ago, manager Craig Counsell told reporters that Almonte would be getting a second opinion after hitting a wall in his recovery attempts. “We’re just not progressing,” Counsell said, per Montemurro on X. “We have to find out whether medically there’s something we have to address or we have to take a different path on the rehab.”

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