Jeremy Pena

In the offseason, there was a lot of talk about the Astros having a crowded infield. On paper, they had Christian Walker at first base, Jose Altuve at second, Jeremy Peña at short and Carlos Correa at third. With Yordan Alvarez set to be in the designated hitter spot most days, that didn’t leave a clear opening for Isaac Paredes, who would have to bounce around and cover other spots whenever someone was taking an occasional off-day.

The season quickly demonstrated that so-called surpluses can dry up quickly. A hamstring strain sent Peña to the injured list in mid-April, which allowed Correa to become the shortstop and Paredes the regular third baseman. Peña was nearing a rehab assignment a few weeks later when Correa suffered an ankle injury that required a season-ending surgery. The club used glove-first journeymen Nick Allen and Braden Shewmake to cover short until Peña got back. Once Peña was ready to be activated, Altuve hit the IL.

All of these players are still under club control for the 2027 season. The Astros could hang onto all of them. It would mean starting another season with a mildly clunky roster fit, but something would likely come along to again break up the logjam.

Regardless, the Astros might look at this summer as an opportunity to free things up a bit. Due to a mounting pile of injuries, they’re out to an awful 20-31 start. Only the Rockies and Angels have a worse record. Due to almost the entire American League underperforming so far, Houston is technically only five games back of a playoff spot, but climbing back in the race is going to be a challenge when so many of their key performers are injured or struggling.

With the league so wide open, some wacky things could happen in the coming months, but it seems like there’s a decent chance the Astros will be in seller position this summer. That would be an unfamiliar position for them, as they’ve been consistently competitive for over a decade now. They narrowly finished outside the playoff picture last year, their first miss since 2016. They haven’t finished below .500 since 2014.

Trading an infielder would mean going into 2027 with less depth than they have this year, but they may want to think about it anyway. In the past few offseasons, they have been working with limited payroll flexibility, due to owner Jim Crane’s desire to avoid the competitive balance tax. In the most recent offseason, they needed pitching and had to get creative, taking gambles on unproven arms like Tatsuya Imai, Ryan Weiss and Mike Burrows. For the most part, those bets haven’t paid off and contributed to the Astros’ current predicament. The outfield has also been a bit of an issue since they traded Kyle Tucker — another move that was motivated by financial concerns.

Moving someone from the dirt could perhaps be a way to address those parts of the roster, or at least free up some payroll space so that there’s more maneuverability this coming winter. Due to their recent string of winning, and penalties related to the sign-stealing scandal, their farm system is also considered one of the worst in the league. If they are suddenly sellers, it could be a chance to do some restocking. There are different ways they could approach things, with pros and cons to each.

Altuve and Correa aren’t worth considering. They are older veterans with big contracts, both currently on the IL. Even if they had trade value, they both have the ability to veto trades. Making Peña available is one route they could go. The 2027 season will be his final arbitration year before he hits free agency. The odds of him signing an extension are low.

For one thing, Peña is represented by the Boras Corporation. It’s not true that Boras never lets his clients sign extensions. For instance, Altuve is a Boras client who has signed multiple extensions with the Astros. But Houston has never topped $160MM on a contract, for Altuve or anyone else. Peña could be trending towards beating that, as many strong shortstops have done in recent years. Marcus Semien, Dansby Swanson, Willy Adames, Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Corey Seager have all signed deals in recent years worth more than anything the Astros have ever given out.

It puts Peña in a somewhat analogous position to where Tucker was a few years back. Tucker was a homegrown star but was nearing free agency and wasn’t going to be signed, so the Astros flipped him while they still had a year of control left. Peña’s window of control will be barely over a year when this summer’s deadline rolls around. Trading Tucker allowed the Astros to get Paredes, Cam Smith and Hayden Wesneski from the Cubs. Peña could fetch a similar haul or perhaps even a better one. His offense hasn’t been as consistently strong as Tucker’s but his speed and shortstop defense make up a good chunk of the difference.

The downside is that Peña is going to be harder to replace, since he is a shortstop and Tucker is a corner outfielder. Technically, the Astros could trade Peña and move Correa over to short but that’s probably not wise. Correa has become increasingly injury-prone in recent years and will be coming off his aforementioned ankle surgery.

There also aren’t amazing options for trading Peña and then finding an external replacement. The best shortstop free agents of the 2026-27 class would be J.P. Crawford or Ha-Seong Kim. Crawford is a decent enough player but he is going into his age-32 season and his defense isn’t especially well regarded. He and the Mariners are already considering a move to third base. Kim has a better defensive reputation but hasn’t been healthy for most of the past two years. Old friend Mauricio Dubón will be out there but he’s never really been relied upon as an everyday shortstop for an extended stretch of time.

Trading Peña also wouldn’t represent massive cost savings. He is making $9.475MM this year and will be due a raise in arbitration, though it remains to be seen how much he can push his salary up. Around his injuries this year, he has a .259/.305/.333 line and 81 wRC+. He has lots of time to get healthy and get in a groove but it’s not yet a lock that he’s set for a huge raise.

Perhaps Peña being available is too much of a reach, but Walker and Paredes were both in plenty of rumors over the winter. It seems fair to expect that the Astros would be more willing to listen on these two.

Walker had a rough year in 2025 but is bouncing back with a big 2026. He has a .255/.330/.489 slash line and 128 wRC+. That’s much better than his 2025 line of .238/.297/.421 and roughly in line with his 2022-24 production in Arizona, when he hit .250/.332/.481 for a 121 wRC+.

The Astros may feel comfortable moving on from Walker and having Paredes on hand to take over at first base. Since Walker is making $20MM annually through 2027, they might also welcome the opportunity to move that deal and open up some payroll space. But that contract is also why Walker isn’t likely to have huge trade value, despite his comeback performance. Though some teams may be interested in adding his bat for the stretch run, a 36-year-old first baseman with a $20MM salary in 2027 isn’t going to be terribly attractive.

Players that age generally don’t get paid at that level. The most recent comp for a guy that age getting paid like that is the three-year, $58.5MM deal the Astros themselves gave to José Abreu. Houston fans know all too well how that one played out. Perhaps Walker can have a better age-36 season than Abreu did, but teams won’t be eager about paying to make that bet. Houston would probably have to eat some money to bring back any kind of notable return.

Paredes is in a more attractive position contractually. He is making $9.35MM in his penultimate arbitration season. His deal has a $13.35MM club option for 2027. Even if that is not picked up, he will be eligible for arbitration and could be retained at a price point roughly in that range.

He will therefore be cheaper than Walker and is also far younger, as he’ll be 28 next year. Unfortunately, he is having a bit of a down year so far. His 8.6% walk rate is down about three ticks relative to last year. His .244/.333/.378 line is above average, leading to a 105 wRC+, but it’s a big drop from last year’s .254/.352/.458 line and 128 wRC+. There’s a bit of surplus value here but not a ton. Considering that his pull swing fits perfectly with the Crawford Boxes in Daikin Park, he may be more valuable to Houston than to other clubs.

Holding all three of Peña, Walker and Paredes is also a possibility. As mentioned, that would maintain depth for 2027, as injuries will surely pop up next year. The downside to this path is that it won’t give the club much of a chance to capitalize on being sellers. Their impending free agents won’t fetch huge hauls. Lance McCullers Jr. and Weiss aren’t going to have much appeal to other clubs as things stand. Relievers Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert and Enyel De Los Santos can probably be dealt but aren’t performing up to their previous levels. Christian Vázquez is having a good season and may be moveable, but he won’t fetch much as a 35-year-old backup catcher.

In short, the Astros don’t have much to sell if they limit themselves to impending free agents. In that scenario, they wouldn’t do much to bolster the farm and wouldn’t free up any meaningful payroll space. They would go into the offseason with a similar roster, which is talented but with holes.

Trading an infielder would reduce the depth but could help in other areas. Peña would bring back a lot, either in terms of prospect capital or major-league-ready talent, but he would blow a big hole at shortstop. Moving one of Walker or Paredes wouldn’t leave such an obvious gap but neither has nearly as much trade value as Peña.

It’s an interesting fork in the road for the franchise and it’s unclear who will be picking which route to take. General manager Dana Brown is in the final year of his contract. Owner Jim Crane hasn’t been shy about making bold decisions about his front office, only offering then-GM James Click a one-year deal after the club’s World Series win in 2022 and subsequently letting him walk. Crane was uncertain enough about Brown to let him go into 2026 as a lame duck. Will he let him be in charge of a deadline sell-off? Would Brown even want to take part in a big sell-off when his job is potentially on the line?

If not Brown, who would be making the decisions? Crane briefly ran the front office between Click’s departure and Brown’s hiring, so he could do it himself. However, that didn’t go especially well. In that brief window, the Astros signed the aforementioned Abreu deal and also inked Rafael Montero to a three-year pact. Both of those deals quickly turned into big duds, so perhaps Crane realizes he shouldn’t be the one making these calls. Is there some assistant GM he would be willing to elevate this summer? Is there any possibility of finding an external front office leader midseason?

There are many lingering questions surrounding the the team, the players and the front office. How those questions are answered in the coming months will shape the club’s future, making them one of the most interesting clubs to monitor this summer.

Photo courtesy of Katie Stratman, Imagn Images