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Rockies Shut Down Jon Gray

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The Rockies have shut down right-hander Jon Gray for the season, manager Bud Black announced to reporters on today’s pregame Zoom call (Twitter link via Kyle Fredrickson of the Denver Post). Gray has been out since Sept. 2 due to inflammation in his right shoulder, and the team simply ran out of time to get him back up to strength to pitch out of the rotation or the ’pen, it seems.

That puts an end to what will go down as a brutal season for the 28-year-old Gray. Over the life of eight starts, the former No. 3 overall draft pick was clobbered to the tune of a 6.69 ERA and 5.07 FIP, averaging a career-worst 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Gray’s control was sharp (2.5 BB/9), but his 36.7 percent ground-ball rate was down nearly 14 percent from last year’s mark. His average fastball, which sat at 96.1 mph in 2019, was just 94 mph in 2020.

There was a case to be made for shopping Gray both at the 2019 trade deadline and again in the offseason, given the financial limitations the Rockies outwardly expressed even before the Covid-19 pandemic hit the league with unforeseeable revenue losses. Owner Dick Monfort also expressed confidence in his team’s ability to rebound, however, going so far as to predict a 94-win season just before Spring Training began despite not adding any Major League talent over the winter. Given that outlook, it’s no surprise that the Rox held onto Gray and paid him a $5.6MM salary in his second trip through the arbitration process, but they’ll face a much more difficult call this winter.

The Rockies look to be on their way to another playoff miss and another sub-.500 season, and Gray will again be arbitration-eligible. Unlike last year when he was coming off a 3.84 ERA and 4.06 FIP with a strikeout per frame in 150 innings, Gray is due a raise after a shoulder injury contributed to the worst season of his career. And given the aforementioned revenue losses that have swept through the league, it’s at least worth wondering whether he’ll be tendered a contract. Much of that will depend on the extent of his shoulder troubles and his rehab outlook, of course.

If the Rockies believe he’ll be healthy in 2021, it seems more in line with this regime’s track record to keep Gray around — uncertainty or not. The Rockies, under Monfort and general manager Jeff Bridich, have persistently sought to put together winning clubs and shown considerable faith in their homegrown players even when they’ve struggled. Gray’s talent is obvious — he’s whiffed more than a batter per inning in the big leagues and has two sub-4.00 ERA seasons at Coors Field under his belt — but he’s also been prone to injuries and has lacked consistency.

With a shortened season and poor performance, he might not be in line for much of a raise at all — the Rockies, speculatively, could even seek a cut — which could make one final season worth the risk in the team’s eyes. Certainly, Gray’s upside justifies that roll of the dice under normal circumstances, but many have forecast aggressive non-tenders throughout MLB in the wake of this year’s revenue hit. Gray is presently on track to become a free agent following the 2021 season.

Rockies Place Jon Gray On 10-Day Injured List

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The Rockies have placed right-hander Jon Gray on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to Sept. 2, with shoulder inflammation, the team announced. They recalled righty Jose Mujica to take Gray’s roster spot.

Shoulder issues can lead to lengthy absences for pitchers, so it’s unclear whether Gray will return this season. Regardless, the 28-year-old – who was a key part of the Rockies’ rotation during previous seasons – has struggled in 2020 for the playoff contenders. Gray has averaged fewer than five innings per start (39 frames in eight appearances) and recorded career worsts in ERA (6.69), FIP (5.01), strikeouts per nine (5.08), groundball rate (36.7 percent) and average fastball velocity (94 mph).

Aside from Gray, the Rockies have given multiple starts to German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland and Ryan Castellani this year. Marquez, Senzatela and Freeland have been respectable overall, while Castellani has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of six appearances. A pair of five-run blowups have damaged his numbers, though.

Rockies Notes: Monfort, Murphy, Hilliard

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The Rockies lost 91 games in 2019, and they haven’t signed a single major league free agent, but Chairman and CEO Dick Monfort predicts a 94-win season in Colorado, per The Denver Post’s Kyle Newman. That would be a franchise high for the Rockies, who thrice have won 90 games but never exceeded 92. And of course, they have yet to capture their first NL West crown. Let’s stick with the Rockies…

  • Monfort cites the 2007 to 2009 Rockies as precedent for his projection, who sandwiched a pair of playoff teams around an 88-loss unit in 2008. The core of the Rox’ 91-win team from 2018 remains largely intact (for now) with Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon leading the offense, while Jon Gray, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland front the rotation. Of course, questions abound for that group, from performance to health to Arenado’s recent comments about the team. The Rockies were a top-10 unit by measure of runs scored even in 2019, so a turnaround isn’t impossible. Significant, wholesale improvements from the pitching staff would have to figure heavily in a turnaround after the staff ranked 29th in the majors with a 5.58 ERA in 2019.
  • Daniel Murphy will be a key player to watch in 2020, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Murphy seemed like a great fit for Coors Field heading into 2019, but an injury slowed the start of his season and the offensive numbers never really surfaced. Murphy doesn’t bring a plus glove at first base, so his contribution needs to come with the bat. A .279/.328/.452 line was his lowest mark across the board since 2015.
  • Of the young players, Sam Hilliard has a chance to break into the everyday lineup, per MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. The lefty masher put up a 1.006 OPS in 27 games last year, an impressive audition. He’s a candidate to take the strong end of a platoon with Ian Desmond in left. Hilliard will have to prove he can make enough contact to see his name on the lineup card daily, but with his combination of speed and power, the physical gifts are there.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Winter Meetings Preview: Rangers, Rockies

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In advance of the winter meetings, let’s take a moment to quickly preview a couple teams out west…

  • The Texas Rangers have their sights laser-focused on Anthony Rendon, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Recent additions have more-or-less locked their rotation class, with Kolby Allard, Joe Palumbo and Brock Burke looking like the 5 through 7 options behind Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. Should prices drop on starters like Dallas Keuchel or Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Rangers could add further pitching in the right deal and potentially explore flipping Lynn or Minor, tweets Grant, though that’s less a strategy and more of the “open to anything” ethos employed by most front offices. Otherwise, the group of internal candidates, if expanded, would include Taylor Hearn and Tyler Phillips, plus any vets they are able to grab on minor league deals in the mold of Edinson Volquez (though Volquez himself is more likely ticketed for the pen if he makes the team). The Rangers reportedly offered Zack Wheeler a $100MM contract before he signed with Philadelphia, so the pursestrings have been loosed. For now, however, they’re stuck in traffic waiting to see if the “Adrian Beltre treatment” can sell Rendon on playing the latter half of his career in Arlington. 
  • The Colorado Rockies need for starting pitching is clear, but they are highly unlikely to walk away from the winter meetings with a new arm atop their rotation, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Irrespective of the financial crunch – which is significant and detailed in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook – the history of Coors Field continues to scare away free agent pitchers. Not to mention, the haunted past of big-ticket hurlers signed by past regimes in Colorado is no less an impediment to building through free agency. Denny Neagle, Mike Hampton, and Darryl Kile can all profess their tale of woe, but Kile’s case is particularly damning given the success he enjoyed in St. Louis once freed from Coors. Speculatively speaking, the Rockies aversion/inability to add frontline pitching via free agency could be a factor in their bearish resistance to trading Jon Gray. If internal development is the only path to roster improvement, trading a talent like Gray would be an even greater white-flag move than under most circumstances.

MLBTR Poll: Should Rockies Trade Trevor Story, Jon Gray?

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The 2019 campaign did not go according to plan for the Rockies, who entered it with playoff aspirations after earning postseason bids in each of the previous two years. The team ended up as one of the most disappointing clubs of the season, though, as it stumbled to a dismal 71-91 record and a fourth-place finish in the National League West.

Perhaps the Rockies will return to the game’s upper echelon next year, but they remain stuck in a division that the mighty Dodgers are likely to own yet again in 2020. Furthermore, it seems the Rox will have to climb out of the basement without any major outside improvements this offseason. Owner Dick Monfort has indicated the Rockies, who are saddled by a few bad contracts (Ian Desmond, Wade Davis, Daniel Murphy and Bryan Shaw), don’t have the payroll flexibility to spend their way out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves.

In light of Monfort’s comments, MLBTR’s TC Zencka noted while previewing the Rockies’ offseason that their outlook for 2020 doesn’t look particularly hopeful. With that in mind, one wouldn’t be out of line to suggest Colorado should consider trading a couple of its top contributors whose team control is running out. Specifically, there’s shortstop Trevor Story and right-hander Jon Gray – two players who are only arbitration-eligible through the 2021 season. Story is projected to earn $11.5MM next season, while Gray should rake in around $5.6MM. Both salaries are bargains relative to what Story and Gray bring to the table, which is arguably all the more reason for the Rockies to listen to offers for the pair.

The 27-year-old Story is fresh off a two-season run in which he was unquestionably an elite shortstop, as he racked up 10.9 fWAR, slashed .293/.355/.561 with 72 home runs and 50 stolen bases across 1,312 plate appearances, and totaled 18 Defensive Runs Saved. Just about any team would sign up for that all-around production, and if you’re a club in need of a shortstop, there’s not much out there in free agency other than Didi Gregorius (who’s coming off a poor season). That’s yet another reason Story and his affordable two years of control would bring back a haul in a trade, one that could help the Rockies turn around a subpar farm system.

Although Story would generate widespread interest on the trade market, general manager Jeff Bridich and the Rockies don’t seem inclined to part with him, instead clinging to the hope that they’ll be able to extend him. Maybe a long-term pact for Story looks unlikely, though the Rox did manage to lock up third baseman Nolan Arenado last February – less than a year before he was slated to reach free agency – with a seven-year, $234MM extension. Keeping Story under wraps won’t cost that much, but the Arenado deal showed they’re willing to go all-out to keep premier talent on board.

As with Story, the Rockies appear as if they’ll retain Gray, even though the hard-throwing 28-year-old has garnered trade interest early this offseason. Gray wouldn’t fetch the return that Story would in a trade, but his aforementioned affordable salary and history of solid production are clearly appealing. Teams that may not necessarily want to splurge on the best free-agent starters (Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu, among others) could turn their focus to Gray if the Rockies are open to giving him up. But it doesn’t look as if that’s the case for Colorado, which, going forward, will apparently.hope for bounce-back seasons from its players who were letdowns in 2019 and attempt to return to relevance next year.

The question is: Should the Rockies essentially wave the white flag already on 2020 and trade Story, Gray or both standouts? With team control waning for each player, there’s a legitimate case that Colorado should go in another direction and opt for a rebuild.

(Poll link for app users)

Rockies Reportedly Do Not Intend To Trade Jon Gray

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While there has been some early chatter surrounding Rockies righty Jon Gray, that doesn’t mean we’re on the cusp of a major swap. Rather, per MLB.com’s Thomas Harding, the Rox are leaving rival organizations with the expectation that Gray will remain in Colorado.

As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored earlier this month, Gray seems a strong trade candidate on paper. The 28 year-old is projected for a reasonable $5.6MM salary in arbitration, but he comes with just two seasons of team control remaining. Gray took a step forward in 2019, posting a 3.84 ERA in 150 innings with solid strikeout (23.6%) and walk (8.8%) rates despite calling Coors Field home. As a team, however, the Rockies went backwards, stumbling to a 71-91 season after back-to-back postseason appearances.

Without much flexibility to spend this offseason, there was and is reason to believe Colorado will explore the trade market both to add MLB pieces and as a potential means of increasing organizational financial flexibility. In addition to possibly attempting to move the contracts of some older, more expensive players, it stands to reason that the team would at least endeavor to learn what kind of young talent might be had in a swap involving its marketable, mid-arbitration players.

Perhaps the Rox didn’t like what they heard when rivals came calling on Gray in recent weeks. No doubt the bar is set even higher when it comes to shortstop Trevor Story. Like Gray, the star shortstop comes with two more years of team control. Dealing one or both would make for something of an organizational reboot, even with other key MLB pieces still on hand.

It certainly doesn’t sound as if the Rockies are anxious to discuss Story in trade talks. To the contrary, the Athletic’s Nick Groke (subscription link) even characterizes the team as having real interest in an extension, although there’s no indication anything’s close on that front. Even if there’s mutual interest, it’ll be challenging to find common ground. Story only just turned 27, has established himself as one of the game’s best shortstops, possesses strong arbitration earning power ($11.5MM projection), and holds sky-high potential in free agency after the 2021 season.

If Colorado is to return to contention, strong seasons from Gray and Story would be key. The Rockies don’t seem likely to threaten the Dodgers in the NL West and probably won’t project as a favorite in the Wild Card race. But there is some compelling core talent on hand and the organization is understandably interested in trying to win while that group is in place. It seems GM Jeff Bridich and company are planning to stay the course this winter in hopes of bouncing back sooner rather than later.

NL Notes: Nats, Cubs, Rox, Cards

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In one of the winter’s most fascinating storylines, the Nationals face the potential loss of two more centerpiece players after bidding adieu to Bryce Harper last winter … and then winning a long-awaited crown. The D.C. organization would like to “get quick resolutions” on both Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), rather than engaging in a protracted courtship. If it’s a fond farewell, in either situation, then the Nats would like to get on with sorting out a replacement plan. The offseason could take any number of different directions for the defending World Series champs.

More from the National League …

  • The Cubs like Nicholas Castellanos and he likes the Cubs. So … why not bring him back? Sahadev Sharma breaks down the situation for The Athletic (subscription link), explaining the many barriers to a reunion. In part it’s simply a financial issue, but there is also a legitimate dilemma in the outfield. Kyle Schwarber’s season went much like that of Castellanos, starting meekly and ending quite strong, so why replace the former with the latter? Both are bat-first players that probably shouldn’t be standing on the same outfield grass for too long. That leaves the focus on center field, per Sharma, which is where things get tricky. There are loads of other clubs facing similar situations and relatively few up-the-middle options available — particularly in free agency. It’ll be interesting to see how the Cubs sort things out, but Castellanos seems to be a bit of a mis-fitting puzzle piece — unless, perhaps, other developments intervene and his market doesn’t develop as he hopes.
  • It is still tough to gauge whether the Rockies will end up pulling off some major roster moves or simply make a few tweaks. GM Jeff Bridich and owner Dick Monfort have suggested the club will need to improve largely from within, while also expressing optimism that it can do so. But we’ve heard persistent chatter regarding possible trade scenarios involving top Colorado players — much of it speculative, to be fair. Odds are, the Rox will simply be looking for affordable, marginal improvements this winter. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post provides a transcript of Bridich’s most recent comments. Bolstering the pitching and finding a second catcher are the two goals, though it still seems those will be of modest expense. So what of the idea of trading Jon Gray? Saunders tweets that the Rockies could be open to it … if they can secure a major package involving significant prospects as well as “an established pitcher” to replace Gray. That feels unlikely to come to fruition.
  • The Cardinals have traded away a huge volume of outfield talent in recent years and have plenty of internal options at or near the majors. Yet the teams still enters the winter with a possible need in that area, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic writes (subscription link). He reasons that the team needs to add a left-handed-hitting piece and looks at a few theoretical trade possibilities. The trick is that the Cards don’t appear interested in raising payroll and all the veterans cited will not be particularly cheap. Joc Pederson ($8.5MM), David Peralta ($8.8MM), and Jackie Bradley Jr. ($11MM) probably wouldn’t require major prospect hauls to acquire, but could bust the self-imposed St. Louis budget. We actually predicted that this year’s top two left-handed-hitting free agent corner outfielders, Corey Dickerson and Kole Calhoun, would secure less annually than each of those players.

Jon Gray Drawing Trade Interest

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Rockies right-hander Jon Gray was an oft-mentioned name at this week’s GM Meetings, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com, with the Padres among the clubs interested in acquiring the former No. 3 overall pick.

That Gray would emerge as a potential trade candidate isn’t really a surprise; as explored here at MLBTR a month ago, the Rockies are in a tough spot as a team that is projected to have a franchise-record payroll in 2020 before making a single addition to improve what was a 71-91 club in 2019. Gray and shortstop Trevor Story are the two members of the club that are relatively short-term assets (both controlled through 2021) and have performed well enough to have legitimate trade value. Owner Dick Monfort began the offseason by declaring a lack of payroll flexibility. As such, if the Rockies are to look to ways to improve, they may need to walk a fine line and move some quality big league pieces to simultaneously pare back spending and add more affordable (but less proven) near-MLB talent.

Gray, who last week turned 28, has demonstrated front-of-the-rotation ability at times in his big league career but has yet to establish much in the way of consistency. He’s averaged better than a strikeout per inning in 641 1/3 MLB frames and has delivered sub-4.00 ERAs in two of the past three seasons despite pitching his home games at Coors Field. However, Gray also logged a mediocre 4.61 ERA in 2016 and a woeful 5.12 mark in 2018.

Inconsistency notwithstanding, Gray is a former No. 3 overall pick and vaunted top prospect who averages better than 96 mph on his heater and owns a career 11.4 percent swinging-strike rate. He’s not exactly the prototypical Statcast darling, as he has below-average spin on his fastball and slider, but he’s managed to consistently generate punchouts all the same. And, that low spin rate has helped Gray to post above-average ground-ball tendencies throughout his MLB tenure.

Gray has only made 30 starts in a big league season once, although his durability isn’t questionable in the same way that it would be for a pitcher with a history of arm troubles. Rather, Gray has twice suffered a fracture in his left foot, limiting him to 110 1/3 innings in 2017 and 150 innings this past season. Outside of those two injuries, the only issue that’s ever shelved Gray during his MLB career was an abdominal strain in 2016. He did have some shoulder fatigue late in the 2014 season — his first full year of pro ball — but Gray’s right arm has an otherwise clean bill of health.

There are at least some parallels between the Rockies’ current situation with Gray and the situation the Pirates faced with Gerrit Cole two offseasons ago. Both are flamethrowing former top picks/prospects. Gray has a 112 ERA+ over his past four seasons — the same mark that Cole posted from 2014-17 in Pittsburgh. And, as was the case with Cole, Gray has another two years of club control remaining and a decidedly non-prohibitive (for most clubs) projected arbitration salary at $5.6MM. (Cole had settled at $6.75MM at the time of his trade.)

That’s not to suggest that Gray will erupt with a new club in the same manner that Cole did, but rather to underscore that Gray is the type of pitcher teams will dream on when scouring the trade market. The fact that this winter’s trade market lacks a clearly available frontline starter should only lead to further intrigue surrounding Gray, although there’s no guarantee that the Rockies will ultimately part ways with the hard-throwing right-hander. The Colorado organization, by all accounts, is hopeful of a bouncing back as a collective unit in 2020, so moving Gray for down-the-pipeline prospect who won’t reach the Majors until 2021-22 doesn’t seem likely.

The Rockies Need To Make Tough Calls On Some Key Players

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The Rockies poured $106MM into their bullpen prior to the 2018 season, signing Wade Davis to a three-year, $52MM contract (the highest annual rate ever promised to a reliever) and inking right-hander Bryan Shaw and lefty Jake McGee to matching three-year, $27MM deals. To this point, none of that trio has pitched up to his abilities, with 2019 being a particularly brutal year thanks to Davis’ stunning struggles. In 42 2/3 innings, Davis posted an 8.65 ERA with career-worst walk and home run rates. Shaw, meanwhile, posted an ERA north of 5.00 for the second straight season, while McGee managed a tolerable 4.35 ERA in an injury-shortened campaign.

Those underperformances not only combined to play a significant role in Colorado’s playoff miss but have also hamstrung the Rockies entering the current offseason. Owner Dick Monfort has plainly stated that the team lacks payroll flexibility. It’s instinctual to suggest that the Rockies need to move some contracts this winter in order to help free up some payroll capacity, but that’s far easier said than done; beyond the poor showings from that high-priced trio of relievers, each has a 2021 option that further complicates matters (hat tip to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post for the observation on Davis and Shaw).

Davis’ contract stipulates that his $15MM option for the 2021 season becomes a player option if he finishes just 30 games in 2020. He’s reached that total in each of the past four seasons. The Rockies (or another team) at least have direct control over that, however, and could simply pitch Davis in a setup or middle relief capacity. Based on his 2019 output, they’d hardly be unjustified in moving him to a lower-leverage role. They already began giving Scott Oberg save opportunities over Davis in 2019 anyhow.

The more problematic contractual options belong to Shaw and McGee, each of whom will see a $9MM option for 2021 become fully guaranteed with a full, healthy season. McGee would need to appear in 65 games next year in order to boost his combined games total from 2019-20 to 110, thus triggering that guarantee. He hasn’t appeared in 65 games since 2014, so perhaps it’s a long shot anyway, but the clause does the Rockies no favors in attempting to move him.

Shaw’s contract is probably the biggest concern. It’s structured the same as McGee’s, in that he’ll trigger his option with 110 appearances between 2019-20. Unlike McGee, though, Shaw was fully healthy in 2019 and took the ball 70 times. He only needs to appear in 40 games next season for another $9MM to be tacked onto that contract. Shaw, who’ll turn 32 this winter, has a 5.61 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9 in 126 1/3 innings since signing with the Rockies. It’s arguable that they’d be better off releasing him rather than risking that $9MM salary vesting in 2021, but doing so would mean forgoing a chance to shed even a portion of that commitment in a trade.

So if those three deals are all extraordinarily difficult to move, then where else could the Rockies look to create flexibility? Charlie Blackmon’s $108MM contract still has two guaranteed years remaining before he encounters an opt-out provision. He’s owed $21MM in both 2020 and 2021 before he can opt for free agency or a $21MM salary for the 2022 season. His contract has a second player option for 2023 that was initially valued at $8MM, but he’s already well on his way to maxing out the escalators that’d push that option as high as $18MM. Those escalators are based on plate appearances, and Blackmon is already over halfway there after tallying 1330 trips to the dish over the past two seasons.

Were he still an elite all-around player, perhaps that’d be viewed in a different light. But while Blackmon is still a terrific hitter (.314/.364/.576 in 2019), he’s no longer a base-stealing threat and was widely panned by defensive statistics in 2019. Just three years after a 43-steal campaign in 2016, Blackmon went 2-for-7 in stealing bags in 2019. Defensive Runs Saved (-8), Ultimate Zone Rating (-10.6) and Outs Above Average (-9) all soured on his glovework, too, even with a shift from center field to right field.

With two years and $25MM to go on Ian Desmond’s ill-fated $70MM contract, there’s little hope of moving him. The same is true of Daniel Murphy (owed $14MM in 2020) after he logged an 87 OPS+ / 86 wRC+ in an injury-shortened season in 2019. And, of course, the Rockies would surely be loath to trade franchise icon Nolan Arenado just one year into his record-setting extension (seven years, $234MM in new money, bringing the total to eight years and $260MM).

So how can the Rockies go about cleaning up the payroll a bit while addressing some holes on the roster? Their best bet would be to trade some higher-end arbitration-eligible players. Fans would bristle at the notion of trading Trevor Story and, perhaps to a lesser extent, righty Jon Gray. But both players have just two seasons of club control remaining before free agency. An extension for either doesn’t seem especially likely when Monfort is already citing payroll issues. Story is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $11.5MM in 2020 while Gray is pegged at $5.6MM. Not only that, but both would assuredly net some high-end young talent that could strengthen the farm. Plus, the Rockies have a premium middle-infield prospect in Brendan Rodgers who could hypothetically replace Story in 2020 (if he recovers sufficiently from shoulder surgery).

General manager Jeff Bridich’s comments at the team’s year-end press conference heavily suggested that he believes this club can turn things around, as currently constructed. That could prove to be the case, but this is a team that finished 20 games under .500 with a -123 run differential. The Rockies didn’t just finish 35 games out of first place, they finished 18 back from a Wild Card spot and 14 games back from even sitting in second place in the NL West. And they already have more money projected for next year’s payroll (including arbitration projections) than they spent on the roster in 2019. This feels like a team that needs a lot more than just a handful of rebounds to get back on track. Bridich and has staff have some tough choices this winter, but cashing in on two of his best trade assets in Story and Gray would be a logical start.

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