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Jon Gray Suffers Season-Ending Foot Fracture

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THURSDAY: Gray will undergo surgery Friday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com tweets.

WEDNESDAY, 1:56PM: Speaking to MLB.com’s Jake Rill and other reporters, Gray said his injury is another stress fracture, similar to his 2017 injury.  Gray indicated that he is considering having surgery to correct the problem, and such a procedure wouldn’t interfere with his readiness for the start of the 2020 season.

12:07PM: Rockies right-hander Jon Gray will miss the rest of the season after suffering a left foot fracture, the team announced.  Gray has been placed on the 60-day injured list.  Colorado purchased the contract of right-hander Tim Melville from Triple-A, and Melville will take Gray’s spot as the starter for today’s game against the Diamondbacks.

The news brings a premature end to what was looking like the best of Gray’s four full MLB seasons, as the 27-year-old had a 3.84 ERA, 2.68 K/BB rate, and an even 9.0 K/9 over 150 innings for the Rox.  It was a nice bounce-back from the 5.12 ERA Gray posted in 172 1/3 frames in 2018, though advanced metrics indicated that he was a little unlucky to post such an inflated ERA, while some of his 2019 ERA indicators (4.06 FIP, 3.89 xFIP, 4.35 SIERA) hint at a bit of good fortune this year.  Statcast also paints rather a dour picture of Gray’s 2019 work, as he is in the bottom 10 percent of all pitchers in hard-hit ball rate and fastball spin rate, not to mention a below-average xwOBA.

On the plus side, Gray posted a career-best 50.4% grounder rate and he is still one of the game’s hardest throwers, with an average fastball velocity of 96.1 mph.  He was also the rare pitcher who actually performed better at Coors Field (3.46 ERA in 75 1/3 IP) than on the road (4.22 ERA in 74 2/3 IP).  With 12.6 fWAR accumulated since the start of the 2016 season, Gray has become a generally reliable, if still a touch inconsistent, rotation stalwart, which is no small feat for a homegrown Rockies pitcher.

While he has been pretty durable over his short career, this is the second time Gray has suffered a major left foot injury, as he spent two and a half months on the injured list in 2017 due to a stress fracture.  Still, Gray and German Marquez project as the top two members of the Rockies rotation going forward to 2020, as Kyle Freeland and Tyler Anderson have been respectively bedeviled by inconsistency and injuries this season.

Today’s outing will see Melville make his first Major League appearance since September 26, 2017.  The 29-year-old tossed 14 2/3 innings for the Reds, Twins, and Padres in 2016-17, and then went onto pitch in the Orioles’ farm system and in independent baseball until inking a minor league contract with the Rockies back in May.  Pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Melville has a 5.42 ERA and 2.2 HR/9 over 96 1/3 innings at Triple-A this season, though with an 8.8 K/9 and 2.35 K/BB rate.

Jeff Bridich: Rockies Playing “Really Bad Baseball”

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This has been an up-and-down season for the Rockies, who began 3-12, climbed all the way to 40-34 and have since nosedived to 46-50. The multiple rotten stretches the Rockies have stumbled through this year may prevent them from earning a third straight playoff berth, but for now, they’re a still-manageable 3 1/2 games out of wild-card position in the jam-packed National League. However, that doesn’t seem to be of much solace to general manager Jeff Bridich, who admitted to Thomas Harding of MLB.com that the Rockies are playing “really bad baseball.” Bridich added that the Rockies’ horrid performance over the past several weeks could complicate matters leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.

“It all needs addressing,” Bridich said of his roster, though he doesn’t see “any quick fixes” and suggested he’s not gearing up to purchase outside help right now. While Harding notes Bridich bought at the previous two deadlines, which helped the team get to the postseason in each case, the GM was frank in saying this year “feels different” compared to those seasons.

“Just watch us play,” Bridich said. “We get a good outing from our starter and we’ll find a way to lose that game through offense or the bullpen or defense. We’ll get a lot of offense one game and our bullpen will come blow it or defense will blow it, or combine. There’s a different way each night, it seems. When that’s your reality in all parts of your team, it’s a tough go to fix all that in one small time period of the year.”

Problems are indeed prevalent for the Rockies. Despite having to pitch half its season at Coors Field, Colorado’s staff was legitimately effective last year. Among their starters, Kyle Freeland finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting, German Marquez was a strikeout machine, and Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray and Antonio Senzatela offered fine complementary performances. This year, with the exception of Gray, everyone from that group has taken noticeable steps back. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ bullpen has felt the absence of Adam Ottavino, who signed with the Yankees in the offseason, and fellow veterans Wade Davis and Seunghwan Oh (whose season is now over because of an elbow injury) have been dreadful. The bullpen’s lone bright spot over a large sample of work has been Scott Oberg, who has posted a 1.35 ERA/3.06 FIP in 46 2/3 frames.

As Bridich suggested, the Rockies’ position player group has also fallen flat. Despite the presences of Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl, the unit’s the fifth worst in the league by fWAR (5.2). Colorado has scored the majors’ fourth-most runs (527), but according to park-adjusted metric wRC+ (85), only five offenses have been worse. In the field, the club has been run-of-the-mill at best in errors (15th), Defensive Runs Saved (20th) and Ultimate Zone Rating (22nd).

Thanks to the Rockies’ team-wide issues, they may be more inclined to sell or stand pat than buy in the next two weeks. The trouble is, if the team wants to ship players out, it doesn’t seem to have a lot of realistic trade chips. Oh, catcher Chris Iannetta and infielder Mark Reynolds are the Rockies’ only impending free agents, but there’s little to no trade value in any of those cases. While the Rockies would likely jump at the chance to get any of the big contracts of Davis, Ian Desmond, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw off their books, that’s not happening. Daniel Murphy has been hot of late, though he’s a soon-to-be 35-year-old with almost $18MM in guaranteed money left on his contract through 2020.

On the other hand, Story – who has two years of arbitration eligibility left after this one – would bring back a haul in a trade. But it’s almost impossible to imagine the Rockies dealing the 26-year-old this summer, especially considering they’d like to extend him. Gray and Oberg, who also come with arbitration control through 2021, would be easier to give up than Story. However, it would take a “truly special” return for the team to trade either of those right-handers, according to Harding.

Quick Hits: Padres, Keuchel, Strickland, Gray, “The Belt” Reactions

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The Padres are “determined to add a starter,” according to Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic. With a slew of young pitchers comprising the Friars’ current rotation—Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer, and Chris Paddack—and the addition of Manny Machado driving the team’s desire to win now, San Diego is a natural fit for a veteran starter to anchor an otherwise inexperienced pitching staff. Dallas Keuchel, of course, remains unsigned and fits the profile, though he and agent Scott Boras have remained firm on their asking price, which the Padres have thus far refused to meet. Rosenthal and Lin also mention Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman as a potential trade target. Stroman, who endured a disappointing 2018 campaign, remains a strong candidate to be traded at some point this season, though it remains unclear just how quickly the Padres plan to move in their hunt for a starter. As Rosenthal and Lin note, trades this early in the season are uncommon, though Keuchel remains on the table for the Padres if they can reach a compromise on the price tag.

Here’s the latest from around baseball…

  • Following the revelation that MLB teams award a belt to the team that best suppresses its players’ arbitration salaries, several players—including Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, and Anthony Rizzo—offered their thoughts on the news, in pieces from Nubyjas Wilborn of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Rizzo and others provide insight into the shaky relationship between the players and owners, also commenting on the possibility of a work stoppage when the current CBA expires.
  • Mariners manager Scott Servais said that reliever Hunter Strickland, who suffered a grade 2 lat strain and was recently placed on the 10-day IL, will be out “at least a couple months,” per Greg Johns of MLB.com. In the meantime, then, it appears that Servais and the Mariners will adopt a committee approach to the closer situation, though the current bullpen options for Seattle are not particularly inspiring, with Cory Gearrin at the forefront of a thin group.
  • Rockies fans may have had some concerns after right-handed pitcher Jon Gray left Sunday’s start against the Marlins in the seventh inning after meeting with the team’s trainer on the mound. However, Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets some good news for Colorado, as Gray was merely experiencing calf cramps and is expected to be ready for his next scheduled start.

West Notes: Castillo, Arenado, Rockies, A’s, Ohtani

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Padres left-hander Jose Castillo will be sidelined for an estimated six-to-eight weeks to recover from a flexor strain in his throwing arm, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Castillo began feeling forearm tightness last week, which caused San Diego to shut down his bullpens and then ultimately place him on the 60-day injured list today.  Needless to say, any type of forearm injury is cause for concern, though the team is still “confident” that Tommy John surgery won’t be required.  The 23-year-old Castillo made his MLB debut last season and immediately delivered results, posting a 3.29 ERA, 4.33 K/BB rate, and a whopping 12.2 K/9 over 38 1/3 innings out of San Diego’s bullpen.  With Castillo on the IL, the Padres’ top left-handed options consist of Matt Strahm and the recently-signed Aaron Loup, with former big leaguers Eric Stout, Kyle McGrath, and Brad Wieck also available in the upper minors.

Some more from both the NL and AL West divisions….

  • The specter of what Manny Machado or Bryce Harper could land in free agency theoretically loomed over the extension talks between Nolan Arenado and the Rockies, though the Machado/Harper situations “had a lot less to do with it than you might think,” Rockies GM Jeff Bridich said in an appearance on Inside Pitch show on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link).  While both the team and Arenado’s camp were obviously cognizant of the larger market forces at play, Bridich said “There were never any sort of deadlines or caveats put in going ’Hey, we need to know this first before…’ We just focused on our business at hand, and I think that’s why we ended up getting what hopefully ends up to be a great deal for everybody involved.”
  • Now that Arenado has been locked up to the biggest contract in franchise history, the Rockies don’t have any more big extension candidates on their radar for at least a couple of years, Kyle Newman and Jeff Bailey of the Denver Post write.  Colorado’s top young stars are still controlled through arbitration or have yet to even reach their arb years — Trevor Story and Jon Gray are controlled through the 2021 season, while Kyle Freeland and German Marquez aren’t eligible for free agency until after the 2022 campaign.  This doesn’t mean the Rockies couldn’t explore a long-term deal in advance, though it’s worth noting that Arenado and Charlie Blackmon both only signed their extensions when they were a season removed from the open market.  Looking at Colorado’s long-term payroll, Arenado and Blackmon are the only players guaranteed salary beyond 2021, several of the team’s other big contracts (Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, Daniel Murphy, and likely Ian Desmond) come off the books after 2020 or 2021.
  • The early start to the regular season for the Athletics and Mariners (who play a two-game series in Tokyo on March 20-21) has also pushed up some roster deadlines.  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the A’s will have to decide by March 14 whether or not minor league signees Jerry Blevins and Nick Hundley will make the MLB roster.  Otherwise, Blevins and Hundley each can opt out of their minors contracts.  It could be a moot point, however, as “Blevins and Hundley both appear to be near-locks to make the team,” Slusser writes.  Hundley’s inclusion could leave Josh Phegley as the odd man out of the catching mix, and the out-of-options backstop is a good candidate to be claimed off waivers, multiple scouts tell Slusser.  Oakland’s early start doesn’t extend to out-of-options players, however, as the club has until March 28 (when their regular season resumes) to decide on Phegley, Frankie Montas, Aaron Brooks, and other players who can no longer be freely optioned to the minors.
  • Shohei Ohtani has moved from hitting off a tee to hitting soft toss, as the Angels slugger continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery.  The Halos are targeting a May return for Ohtani, though manager Brad Ausmus told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and other media that the unique nature of Ohtani’s two-way status makes him “patient zero,” and thus “he doesn’t really have a set schedule.  He is making the schedule for future Shohei Ohtanis.”  Ohtani obviously won’t pitch this season, and he’ll be limited to DH-only duty once he does return to the team’s lineup.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
  • The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
  • The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
  • The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
  • The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.

Earlier Updates

Read more

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Ramos, Rox, Smoak, Desmond, Pads, Profar

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The Dodgers reached out to free agent backstop Wilson Ramos with interest, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). It seems, though, that the Dodgers are angling for a one-year pact, while Ramos is still seeking a multi-year contract. A single-year deal for Ramos appears unrealistic, given that he’s one of the two best catchers on the market – along with Dodgers free agent Yasmani Grandal – and is coming off an excellent offensive season. MLBTR predicts Ramos, 31, will receive a three-year, $36MM guarantee, which should put him out of the Dodgers’ reported range. Either way, with Austin Barnes as the only catcher who has significant major league experience on its roster, LA seems likely to add a backstop sometime this offseason. The club is reportedly among those still in the hunt for Marlins star J.T. Realmuto.

More on a few other NL West teams…

  • The Rockies have at least given internal consideration to pursuing Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (Twitter link). It seems the Rox could also consider some free agent bats, with MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writing that Daniel Murphy, Neil Walker, and Logan Morrison are all on the club’s radar. Colorado received National League-worst production at first base last season, putting it in the market for help there. Smoak, meanwhile, put together his second straight solid offensive campaign. He’s due an affordable $8MM in 2019, and MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted in October that he’d make sense for the Rockies. Murphy, Walker and Morrison were less successful than Smoak in 2018, but they’ve experienced varying degrees of success and should come at affordable prices this winter. Further, both Murphy and Walker are versatile enough to line up at multiple positions.
  • More on the Rockies from Harding, who reports that right-hander Jon Gray and utiliyman Ian Desmond drew trade interest at the Winter Meetings. It’s no surprise teams inquired about Gray, a potential front-end starter with three years of control left, but there’s no word no whether the Rockies would consider dealing the 27-year-old. Desmond isn’t nearly as appealing, on the other hand, but “teams were receptive to discussing” him, Harding writes. Not only has the 33-year-old Desmond combined for minus-1.5 fWAR since 2017, but he’s still owed $40MM through 2021 (including a $2MM buyout of his $15MM club option for 2022).
  • The Padres are discussing a contract with shortstop Freddy Galvis, but it appears “unlikely” the two sides will reach an agreement, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. Now a free agent, Galvis spent last season in San Diego after the team acquired him from Philadelphia last December for young right-hander Enyel De Los Santos, who’s now the Phillies’ ninth-ranked prospect at MLB.com. The 29-year-old Galvis posted below-average offensive numbers (.248/.299/.380, good for an 85 wRC+, in 656 plate appearances) and earned mixed reviews at short (seven DRS, minus-4.4 UZR).
  • Continuing with the Padres, they’ve reached out to the Rangers regarding infielder Jurickson Profar, but the chances of a deal happening are “faint,” Dennis Lin of The Athletic relays (subscription required). Padres general manager A.J. Preller is a fan of Profar from his days as an executive with the Rangers. However, he’s not having much luck prying the 25-year-old Profar and his two remaining seasons of team control from Texas.

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