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Jon Gray

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

By Steve Adams and Connor Byrne | January 15, 2021 at 10:51am CDT

The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

  • Rockies outfielder Raimel Tapia avoided arbitration with a $1.95MM deal, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The team also reached an agreement for $805K with reliever Robert Stephenson, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
  • The Tigers have deals with infielder Jeimer Candelario ($2.85MM), outfielder JaCoby Jones ($2.65MM) and righty Jose Cisnero ($970K), Chris McCosky of the Detroit News relays.
  • The Yankees and reliever Chad Green settled for $2.15MM, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
  • The Marlins and lefty Richard Bleier have a deal for $1.425MM, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets.
  • The Dodgers reached a $3.6MM settlement with lefty Julio Urias, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports.
  • The Angels announced a deal with righty Dylan Bundy for $8.325MM.
  • The Tigers and southpaw Matthew Boyd have settled for $6.5MM, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets.
  • The Yankees have deals with catcher Gary Sanchez ($6.35MM), first baseman Luke Voit ($4.7MM), third baseman Gio Urshela ($4.65MM), shortstop Gleyber Torres ($4MM) and outfielder Clint Frazier ($2.1MM), per Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post.
  • The Rays and outfielder Manuel Margot avoided arbitration with a $3.4MM agreement, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
  • The Padres and outfielder Tommy Pham have a deal for $8.9MM, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. Reliever Dan Altavilla settled for $850K, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets.
  • The Angels and righty Felix Pena have come to terms for $1.1MM, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports.
  • The Red Sox and third baseman Rafael Devers have reached a $4.575MM agreement, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
  • The Mets and outfielder Brandon Nimmo have come to a $4.7MM agreement, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets.
  • The Reds and righty Luis Castillo have settled for $4.2MM, Robert Murray of FanSided relays.
  • The Rays reached a $2.25MM agreement with infielder Joey Wendle and a $1.175MM settlement with righty Yonny Chirinos, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.
  • The Cardinals and flamethrowing reliever Jordan Hicks have an agreement for $862,500, according to Heyman.
  • The White Sox and ace Lucas Giolito avoided arbitration with a $4.15MM agreement, James Fegan of The Athletic reports.
  • The Pirates and righty Joe Musgrove have reached an agreement for $4.45MM, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. They also made deals with second/baseman outfielder Adam Frazier ($4.3MM), third baseman Colin Moran ($2.8MM) righty Chad Kuhl ($2.13MM) and lefty Steven Brault ($2.05MM), per reports from Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Adam Berry of MLB.com.
  • Hard-throwing right-hander Reyes Moronta agreed to a $695K deal with the Giants after missing the 2020 season due to shoulder surgery, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
  • The Tigers agreed to a $2.1MM deal with infielder Niko Goodrum, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided. They also inked lefty Daniel Norris for a $3.475MM salary, tweets Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.
  • The Pirates agreed to a $1.3MM deal with catcher Jacob Stallings and a $1.1MM deal with righty Chris Stratton, per Robert Murray of Fansided (Twitter links).
  • Athletics right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a $912,500 salary for the 2021 season, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
  • Right-hander Richard Rodriguez and the Pirates agreed to a $1.7MM deal, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
  • Catcher Jorge Alfaro and the Marlins agreed to a $2.05MM deal, tweets Craig Mish of SportsGrid.
  • The Reds agreed to a $2.2MM deal with right-hander Tyler Mahle, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray. Cincinnati also signed lefty Amir Garrett for $1.5MM, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
  • The Indians agreed to a $2.4MM deal with newly acquired shortstop Amed Rosario and a $975K deal with righty Phil Maton, tweets Zack Meisel of The Athletic.
  • The Tigers and righty Buck Farmer settled at $1.85MM, tweets Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.
  • The Marlins agreed to a $1.9MM deal with right-handed reliever Yimi Garcia, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

Read more

  • The Mariners confirmed their deal with Crawford and announced that catcher Tom Murphy and righty Rafael Montero also agreed to one-year deals. Terms weren’t disclosed, though MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Montero will be paid $2.25MM.
  • The Phillies and first baseman Rhys Hoskins are in agreement on a $4.8MM salary for the 2021 season, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia.
  • The Royals got deals done with shortstop Adalberto Mondesi and right-hander Brad Keller, tweets Alec Lewis of the The Athletic. Mondesi will earn $2.525MM, while Keller gets $3.35MM.
  • The Padres agreed to a $4.2MM deal with breakout starter Dinelson Lamet, tweets Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
  • The Brewers announced that they’ve agreed to one-year deals with starter Brandon Woodruff and closer Josh Hader. Hader’s deal pays him $6.675MM, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Woodruff will earn $3.275MM, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
  • The Rockies and reliever Carlos Estevez agreed to a $1.45MM deal, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
  • The D-backs avoided arb with all three of their eligible players, per The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (Twitter link). They have deals with catcher Carson Kelly, lefty Caleb Smith ($1.465MM) and righty Luke Weaver ($1.950MM).
  • The A’s have agreed to a $6.925MM deal with first baseman/outfielder Mark Canha, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray. They also signed right-hander Frankie Montas at $1.8MM, Murray adds.
  • Rangers shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa agreed to a $2MM deal for the 2021 season, tweets Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
  • Righty Kyle Crick will earn $800K next season with the Pirates, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
  • The Tigers agreed to a $1.5MM deal with right-handed reliever Joe Jimenez, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray.
  • The Angels settled at $6.75MM with left-hander Andrew Heaney, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray. The Halos also inked catcher Max Stassi at $1.6MM, per Murray.
  • The Braves and lefty A.J. Minter agreed to a $1.3MM deal for 2021, tweets David O’Brien of The Athletic. Lefty Max Fried also inked a $3.5MM deal, tweets O’Brien.
  • The Phillies and newly acquired southpaw Jose Alvarado settled at $1MM, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
  • The Indians avoided arbitration with catcher Austin Hedges on a $3.28MM deal, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
  • The Athletics and third baseman Matt Chapman agreed at $6.49MM, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
  • Marlins third baseman Brian Anderson agreed to a $3.8MM salary, tweets SportsGrid’s Craig Mish.
  • Astros righty Lance McCullers Jr. will earn $6.5MM in 2021, tweets Brian McTaggart of MLB.com.
  • The Athletics agreed to a $5.95MM deal with lefty Sean Manaea, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
  • Cardinals center fielder Harrison Bader agreed to a $2MM deal, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
  • The Rangers and slugger Joey Gallo settled on a $6.2MM salary, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
  • Athletics righty Chris Bassitt has agreed to a $4.9MM salary for the 2021 season, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
  • The Rockies and infielder Ryan McMahon settled at $2.375MM, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
  • The Orioles and Trey Mancini avoided arb by agreeing to a $4.75MM salary, tweets MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko.
  • The Rays and ace Tyler Glasnow have agreed to a $4MM salary for the 2021 season, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
  • Right-hander Reynaldo Lopez and the White Sox agreed to a $2.1MM salary, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray.
  • The Reds and outfielder Jesse Winker are in agreement on a $3.15MM deal for the 2021 season, tweets the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale.
  • Left-hander Kyle Freeland and the Rockies agreed to a one-year deal worth $5.025MM, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
  • The Padres and newly acquired catcher Victor Caratini settled at $1.3MM, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray.
  • The Reds and right-hander/center fielder Michael Lorenzen settled at $4.4375MM, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
  • The Blue Jays inked right-hander Ross Stripling to a $3MM deal, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
  • Righty Alex Reyes and the Cardinals agreed at $900K, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
  • The Astros agreed to a one-year, $3MM deal with utilityman Aledmys Diaz, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray.
  • Rockies right-hander Jon Gray has agreed to a $6MM contract, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
  • The Blue Jays and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez agreed to a $4.325MM salary for 2021, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray.
  • The Padres and right-handed reliever Emilio Pagan settled at $1.57MM, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.
  • Shortstop J.P. Crawford agreed to a $2.05MM contract with the Mariners, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
  • The Angels and right-hander Mike Mayers settled on a one-year, $1.2MM salary, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
  • Right-hander Vince Velasquez and the Phillies have agreed to a one-year, $4MM contract, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia.
  • The Mets signed righty Robert Gsellman to a one-year, $1.3MM contract to avoid arb, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
  • The Reds agreed to a one-year, $1.175MM deal with right-hander Noe Ramirez, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.
  • The Mets and first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith are in agreement on a one-year, $2.55MM contract, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.s
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A.J. Minter Adalberto Mondesi Adam Frazier Aledmys Diaz Alex Reyes Amed Rosario Amir Garrett Andrew Heaney Atlanta Braves Austin Hedges Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Brad Keller Brandon Nimmo Brandon Wood Brandon Woodruff Brian Anderson Buck Farmer Caleb Smith Carlos Estevez Carson Kelly Chad Green Chad Kuhl Chicago White Sox Chris Bassitt Chris Stratton Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Indians Clint Frazier Colin Moran Colorado Rockies Dan Altavilla Daniel Norris Detroit Tigers Dinelson Lamet Dominic Smith Dylan Bundy Emilio Pagan Evan Grant Felix Pena Frankie Montas Giovanny Urshela Gleyber Torres Harrison Bader Houston Astros Ian Anderson Isiah Kiner-Falefa J.P. Crawford Jacob Stallings JaCoby Jones Jeimer Candelario Jesse Winker Joe Jimenez Joe Musgrove Joey Gallo Joey Wendle Jon Gray Jordan Hicks Jorge Alfaro Jose Alvarado Jose Cisnero Josh Hader Julio Urias Kansas City Royals Kyle Crick Kyle Freeland Lance McCullers Jr. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers Lou Trivino Lucas Giolito Luis Castillo Luke Voit Luke Weaver Manuel Margot Mark Canha Matt Boyd Matt Chapman Max Fried Max Stassi Miami Marlins Michael Lorenzen Mike Mayers Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets New York Yankees Niko Goodrum Noe Ramirez Oakland Athletics Oscar Hernandez Phil Maton Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates Rafael Devers Rafael Montero Raimel Tapia Reynaldo Lopez Rhys Hoskins Richard Bleier Richard Rodriguez Robert Gsellman Ross Stripling Ryan McMahon San Diego Padres Sean Manaea Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Steven Brault Tampa Bay Rays Teoscar Hernandez Texas Rangers Tom Murphy Tommy Pham Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Trey Mancini Tyler Glasnow Tyler Mahle Victor Caratini Yimi Garcia Yonny Chirinos

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Trade Candidate: Jon Gray

By Anthony Franco | January 10, 2021 at 12:30pm CDT

Much has been written about the Rockies potentially trading stars Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. There has been decidedly less chatter about starter Jon Gray. On the surface, though, the right-hander looks to be one of the more sensible trade candidates around the league.

That’s mostly a function of his contractual status. Gray has five years and sixty-two days of MLB service, meaning he’ll hit free agency at the end of next season. Meanwhile, contending in the NL West will be an uphill battle for the Rockies. The Dodgers are a perennial juggernaut, while the already-contending Padres made a trio of impact additions last month. The Giants also had a decent 2020 season; the Diamondbacks did not, but Arizona has largely the same roster that won 85 games and finished second in the division the year before. As Dan Szymborksi of FanGraphs examined this week, the Rockies look more likely to finish near the bottom of the division than the top.

Colorado projects as a longshot for the postseason, particularly if MLB returns to a five-team-per-league playoff structure in 2021. There’s a case to be made the Rockies should move short-term players for future value. The organization needn’t embark on a full rebuild, but a single year of production from Gray (or Story, for that matter) would probably be worth more to another team than it would to Colorado.

Admittedly, Gray is coming off a dismal season. He pitched just eight games with terrible results before being shut down with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Gray’s velocity, strikeout and ground ball rates all dropped precipitously from past seasons. He ultimately posted an ERA just under 7.

Yet the former third overall pick looked like a capable mid-rotation starter entering 2020. Over the three prior seasons, Gray pitched to a 4.31 ERA (a deceptively solid mark in the hitters’ haven of Coors Field) across 432.2 innings. In that time, his strikeout (24.2%), walk (7.5%) and ground ball (48.8%) rates were each better than league average. As is, Gray was a productive starting pitcher. There remained some hope the former top prospect could yet emerge as a top-of-the-rotation arm. His fastball was in the mid 90’s and he flashed a pair of swing-and-miss breaking pitches.

After his disastrous 2020, Gray would be a reclamation project. But it’s easy to imagine plenty of contenders having interest in acquiring him. Eight poor starts don’t negate what Gray had achieved in the seasons before. His ending last season on the injured list is a red flag, but it’s notable the Rockies seemingly believe he can return to form this year. Otherwise, it wouldn’t have made sense for the Colorado front office to tender him an arbitration contract, projected in the not-insignificant $6MM range, as they did in November.

There has been no indication the Rockies are actually exploring trades involving Gray this offseason. On paper, though, Colorado looks a reasonable bet to subtract short-term pieces from the major league roster. Gray’s pre-2020 track record and past flashes of high-end raw stuff could entice some teams closer to contention to call the Rockies, particularly in a winter without many obvious rotation upgrades available in free agency.

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Colorado Rockies Jon Gray MLBTR Originals Trade Candidate

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NL Notes: Flaherty, Aguilar, Gray

By Mark Polishuk | December 2, 2020 at 12:45pm CDT

There’s no doubt Jack Flaherty will be tendered a contract in his first season of arbitration eligibility, though Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cardinals have yet to speak with Flaherty about a long-term extension.  With Flaherty under team control through 2023, there isn’t necessarily any rush to work out a multi-year deal, so the Cards might prefer to wait a little longer before exploring a larger deal (especially if the team is still trying to figure out its payroll situation after the revenue losses of the 2020 season).

That said, an extension would also give both Flaherty and the Cardinals some financial certainty through what could be a tumultuous few years, given both the pandemic and the expiration of baseball’s collective bargaining agreement following the 2021 season.  Signing young players to long-term deals has been a key tactic of John Mozeliak’s tenure in the St. Louis front office, so one would imagine an extension would be broached with Flaherty at some point this offseason, perhaps during Spring Training.  It’s worth noting that past negotiations between Flaherty and the Cardinals over the relatively simpler matter of his pre-arbitration contracts also haven’t been straight-forward, as the Cardinals have renewed the right-hander’s contracts in each of the last two seasons.

More from the National League…

  • Jon Gray is a potential non-tender candidate following a rough 2020 season, though MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link) reports that the Rockies are “expected” to tender Gray a deal in his third and final year of arbitration eligibility.  Gray posted a 6.69 ERA over eight starts before being shut down due to shoulder inflammation in early September, ending a season that saw him post some ugly Statcast metrics as well as career worsts in K/9 (5.1), K/BB rate (2.00), grounder rate (36.7%), and fastball velocity (94mph).  While there was some misfortune involved in Gray’s struggles (such as a stunningly low 54.4% strand rate), the season represented another low point of an up-and-down career for the former third overall pick.  Gray is projected for a salary in the range of $5.9MM in 2021, which the Rockies may feel is an acceptable price tag to see if Gray can get himself on track next year.
  • “There have been many clubs with interest” in trading for Marlins first baseman Jesus Aguilar, SportsGrid’s Craig Mish writes.  It isn’t known whether any of those teams might make the Fish a big offer prior to today’s non-tender deadline, though Mish feels the Marlins will indeed tender Aguilar a contract despite the uncertainty about whether or not the DH will be part of National League baseball next season.  Aguilar started 19 games as a designated hitter in 2020, and was a first baseman in his 31 other starts.  “Jesus returning without the DH is not optimal, but possible” for Miami, Mish writes, and of course trades could still be explored throughout the offseason.
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Colorado Rockies Jack Flaherty Jesus Aguilar Jon Gray Miami Marlins Notes St. Louis Cardinals

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Rockies Shut Down Jon Gray

By Steve Adams | September 16, 2020 at 1:06pm CDT

The Rockies have shut down right-hander Jon Gray for the season, manager Bud Black announced to reporters on today’s pregame Zoom call (Twitter link via Kyle Fredrickson of the Denver Post). Gray has been out since Sept. 2 due to inflammation in his right shoulder, and the team simply ran out of time to get him back up to strength to pitch out of the rotation or the ’pen, it seems.

That puts an end to what will go down as a brutal season for the 28-year-old Gray. Over the life of eight starts, the former No. 3 overall draft pick was clobbered to the tune of a 6.69 ERA and 5.07 FIP, averaging a career-worst 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Gray’s control was sharp (2.5 BB/9), but his 36.7 percent ground-ball rate was down nearly 14 percent from last year’s mark. His average fastball, which sat at 96.1 mph in 2019, was just 94 mph in 2020.

There was a case to be made for shopping Gray both at the 2019 trade deadline and again in the offseason, given the financial limitations the Rockies outwardly expressed even before the Covid-19 pandemic hit the league with unforeseeable revenue losses. Owner Dick Monfort also expressed confidence in his team’s ability to rebound, however, going so far as to predict a 94-win season just before Spring Training began despite not adding any Major League talent over the winter. Given that outlook, it’s no surprise that the Rox held onto Gray and paid him a $5.6MM salary in his second trip through the arbitration process, but they’ll face a much more difficult call this winter.

The Rockies look to be on their way to another playoff miss and another sub-.500 season, and Gray will again be arbitration-eligible. Unlike last year when he was coming off a 3.84 ERA and 4.06 FIP with a strikeout per frame in 150 innings, Gray is due a raise after a shoulder injury contributed to the worst season of his career. And given the aforementioned revenue losses that have swept through the league, it’s at least worth wondering whether he’ll be tendered a contract. Much of that will depend on the extent of his shoulder troubles and his rehab outlook, of course.

If the Rockies believe he’ll be healthy in 2021, it seems more in line with this regime’s track record to keep Gray around — uncertainty or not. The Rockies, under Monfort and general manager Jeff Bridich, have persistently sought to put together winning clubs and shown considerable faith in their homegrown players even when they’ve struggled. Gray’s talent is obvious — he’s whiffed more than a batter per inning in the big leagues and has two sub-4.00 ERA seasons at Coors Field under his belt — but he’s also been prone to injuries and has lacked consistency.

With a shortened season and poor performance, he might not be in line for much of a raise at all — the Rockies, speculatively, could even seek a cut — which could make one final season worth the risk in the team’s eyes. Certainly, Gray’s upside justifies that roll of the dice under normal circumstances, but many have forecast aggressive non-tenders throughout MLB in the wake of this year’s revenue hit. Gray is presently on track to become a free agent following the 2021 season.

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Colorado Rockies Jon Gray

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Rockies Place Jon Gray On 10-Day Injured List

By Connor Byrne | September 4, 2020 at 5:41pm CDT

The Rockies have placed right-hander Jon Gray on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to Sept. 2, with shoulder inflammation, the team announced. They recalled righty Jose Mujica to take Gray’s roster spot.

Shoulder issues can lead to lengthy absences for pitchers, so it’s unclear whether Gray will return this season. Regardless, the 28-year-old – who was a key part of the Rockies’ rotation during previous seasons – has struggled in 2020 for the playoff contenders. Gray has averaged fewer than five innings per start (39 frames in eight appearances) and recorded career worsts in ERA (6.69), FIP (5.01), strikeouts per nine (5.08), groundball rate (36.7 percent) and average fastball velocity (94 mph).

Aside from Gray, the Rockies have given multiple starts to German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland and Ryan Castellani this year. Marquez, Senzatela and Freeland have been respectable overall, while Castellani has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of six appearances. A pair of five-run blowups have damaged his numbers, though.

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Colorado Rockies Jon Gray

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Rockies Notes: Monfort, Murphy, Hilliard

By TC Zencka | February 1, 2020 at 12:24pm CDT

The Rockies lost 91 games in 2019, and they haven’t signed a single major league free agent, but Chairman and CEO Dick Monfort predicts a 94-win season in Colorado, per The Denver Post’s Kyle Newman. That would be a franchise high for the Rockies, who thrice have won 90 games but never exceeded 92. And of course, they have yet to capture their first NL West crown. Let’s stick with the Rockies…

  • Monfort cites the 2007 to 2009 Rockies as precedent for his projection, who sandwiched a pair of playoff teams around an 88-loss unit in 2008. The core of the Rox’ 91-win team from 2018 remains largely intact (for now) with Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon leading the offense, while Jon Gray, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland front the rotation. Of course, questions abound for that group, from performance to health to Arenado’s recent comments about the team. The Rockies were a top-10 unit by measure of runs scored even in 2019, so a turnaround isn’t impossible. Significant, wholesale improvements from the pitching staff would have to figure heavily in a turnaround after the staff ranked 29th in the majors with a 5.58 ERA in 2019.
  • Daniel Murphy will be a key player to watch in 2020, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Murphy seemed like a great fit for Coors Field heading into 2019, but an injury slowed the start of his season and the offensive numbers never really surfaced. Murphy doesn’t bring a plus glove at first base, so his contribution needs to come with the bat. A .279/.328/.452 line was his lowest mark across the board since 2015.
  • Of the young players, Sam Hilliard has a chance to break into the everyday lineup, per MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. The lefty masher put up a 1.006 OPS in 27 games last year, an impressive audition. He’s a candidate to take the strong end of a platoon with Ian Desmond in left. Hilliard will have to prove he can make enough contact to see his name on the lineup card daily, but with his combination of speed and power, the physical gifts are there.
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Charlie Blackmon Colorado Rockies Daniel Murphy German Marquez Ian Desmond Jon Gray Kyle Freeland Nolan Arenado Notes Trevor Story

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Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | January 10, 2020 at 5:24pm CDT

Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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  • Rockies reliever Carlos Estevez has settled for a $1.08MM salary, Robert Murray reports on Twitter.
  • Dodgers lefty Julio Urias will earn $1MM, per Robert Murray (via Twitter).
  • The Brewers will pay catcher Omar Narvaez $2.725MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com.
  • A pair of Nationals hurlers also have deals, Murray reports (Twitter links). Southpaw Roenis Elias takes down $1.975MM while righty Joe Ross will receive $1.5MM.
  • Pirates first baseman Josh Bell earns $4.8MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). That’s short of the projection, though Matt Swartz recently explained why he believed Bell would land closer to the $5MM level — as indeed he now has. Reliever Michael Feliz earns $1.1MM, Murray tweets, and the Bucs will pay starter Trevor Williams $2.825MM, per MLB.com’s Adam Berry (via Twitter).
  • The Diamondbacks have a $5.515MM settlement with corner infielder Jake Lamb, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. The Snakes will pay righty Andrew Chafin $3.045MM, Murray tweets.
  • The Padres will pay catcher Austin Hedges $3MM, Nightengale also tweets. Friars outfielder Manuel Margot earns $2.475MM, Robert Murray adds on Twitter. And righty Dinelson Lamet will earn $1.3MM, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
  • A pair of Braves position players have agreed to terms, per David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter links). Infielder Johan Camargo has settled for $1.7MM, while outfielder Adam Duvall receives $3.25MM. Southpaw Grant Dayton will earn $655K, Murray tweets, while fellow reliever Luke Jackson gets $1.825MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).
  • Southpaw Adam Morgan takes home $1.575MM from the Phillies, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia tweets.
  • The Pirates and righty Chad Kuhl have settled on an $840K salary, tweets Adam Berry of MLB.com. Kuhl didn’t throw a pitch in 2019 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, leaving him with minimal leverage in talks. He falls quite a bit shy of the $1.4MM forecast by the MLBTR algorithm.
  • Right-hander Luis Perdomo and the Padres agreed to terms on a one-year deal, tweets Robert Murray. Few former Rule 5 picks like Perdomo make it all the way to arbitration, and he’ll be rewarded with a $950K salary that narrowly falls shy of his $1MM projection.
  • The Reds and right-hander/center fielder Michael Lorenzen agreed to a $3.725MM salary for 2020, tweets Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer. A Super Two player who’ll be eligible once more next winter, Lorenzen was projected at $4.2MM.
  • Right-hander Matt Andriese and the D-backs settled at $1.395MM for the upcoming season, tweets Robert Murray. That lines up nicely with his $1.4MM projection in his second year of eligibility. He’s controlled through 2021.
  • The Pirates and righty Jameson Taillon agreed to a $2.25MM salary for the upcoming season, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Taillon isn’t expected to pitch in 2020 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, so this is likely the amount he’ll earn both next season and in 2021. The deal is right in line with his $2.3MM projection.
  • The Diamondbacks and southpaw Robbie Ray settled at $9.43MM for his final season of club control, Nightengale tweets. It’s more than $1MM shy of the $10.8MM at which he’d been projected, which gives the Snakes a bit more flexibility but also makes Ray slightly more appealing should Arizona listen to offers on him.
  • The Braves agreed to one-year deals with shortstop Dansby Swanson and right-hander Mike Foltynewicz, Nightengale tweets. Swanson will be guaranteed $3.15MM, while Foltynewicz is in line to take home a $6.425MM salary. They’d been projected to earn $3.3MM and $7.5MM, respectively. Swanson is in his first year of eligibility, while Foltynewicz is in his second as a Super Two player.
  • The Mets and righty Robert Gsellman settled at $1.225MM for the 2020 season, tweets SNY’s Andy Martino. He’d been projected to earn $1.2MM in his first season of eligibility.
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Adam Conley Adam Duvall Adam Frazier Adam Morgan Andrew Chafin Anthony DeSclafani Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Austin Hedges Brandon Nimmo Carlos Estevez Chad Kuhl Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies Curt Casali Dansby Swanson David Dahl Dinelson Lamet Edwin Diaz Grant Dayton Jake Lamb Jake Marisnick Jameson Taillon Joe Musgrove Joe Ross Johan Camargo John Gant Jon Gray Jonathan Villar Jose Alvarez Jose Urena Josh Bell Julio Urias Keone Kela Kirby Yates Kyle Freeland Los Angeles Dodgers Luis Perdomo Luke Jackson Manuel Margot Marcus Stroman Matt Andriese Matt Strahm Matthew Bowman Miami Marlins Michael Conforto Michael Feliz Michael Lorenzen Mike Foltynewicz Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets Noah Syndergaard Omar Narvaez Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates Relievers Robbie Ray Robert Gsellman Roenis Elias Ross Stripling San Diego Padres Seth Lugo St. Louis Cardinals Steven Matz Tommy Pham Transactions Trea Turner Trevor Williams Vincent Velasquez Washington Nationals Zach Davies

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Winter Meetings Preview: Rangers, Rockies

By TC Zencka | December 7, 2019 at 10:56am CDT

In advance of the winter meetings, let’s take a moment to quickly preview a couple teams out west…

  • The Texas Rangers have their sights laser-focused on Anthony Rendon, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Recent additions have more-or-less locked their rotation class, with Kolby Allard, Joe Palumbo and Brock Burke looking like the 5 through 7 options behind Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. Should prices drop on starters like Dallas Keuchel or Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Rangers could add further pitching in the right deal and potentially explore flipping Lynn or Minor, tweets Grant, though that’s less a strategy and more of the “open to anything” ethos employed by most front offices. Otherwise, the group of internal candidates, if expanded, would include Taylor Hearn and Tyler Phillips, plus any vets they are able to grab on minor league deals in the mold of Edinson Volquez (though Volquez himself is more likely ticketed for the pen if he makes the team). The Rangers reportedly offered Zack Wheeler a $100MM contract before he signed with Philadelphia, so the pursestrings have been loosed. For now, however, they’re stuck in traffic waiting to see if the “Adrian Beltre treatment” can sell Rendon on playing the latter half of his career in Arlington. 
  • The Colorado Rockies need for starting pitching is clear, but they are highly unlikely to walk away from the winter meetings with a new arm atop their rotation, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Irrespective of the financial crunch – which is significant and detailed in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook – the history of Coors Field continues to scare away free agent pitchers. Not to mention, the haunted past of big-ticket hurlers signed by past regimes in Colorado is no less an impediment to building through free agency. Denny Neagle, Mike Hampton, and Darryl Kile can all profess their tale of woe, but Kile’s case is particularly damning given the success he enjoyed in St. Louis once freed from Coors. Speculatively speaking, the Rockies aversion/inability to add frontline pitching via free agency could be a factor in their bearish resistance to trading Jon Gray. If internal development is the only path to roster improvement, trading a talent like Gray would be an even greater white-flag move than under most circumstances.
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MLBTR Poll: Should Rockies Trade Trevor Story, Jon Gray?

By Connor Byrne | November 27, 2019 at 1:00am CDT

The 2019 campaign did not go according to plan for the Rockies, who entered it with playoff aspirations after earning postseason bids in each of the previous two years. The team ended up as one of the most disappointing clubs of the season, though, as it stumbled to a dismal 71-91 record and a fourth-place finish in the National League West.

Perhaps the Rockies will return to the game’s upper echelon next year, but they remain stuck in a division that the mighty Dodgers are likely to own yet again in 2020. Furthermore, it seems the Rox will have to climb out of the basement without any major outside improvements this offseason. Owner Dick Monfort has indicated the Rockies, who are saddled by a few bad contracts (Ian Desmond, Wade Davis, Daniel Murphy and Bryan Shaw), don’t have the payroll flexibility to spend their way out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves.

In light of Monfort’s comments, MLBTR’s TC Zencka noted while previewing the Rockies’ offseason that their outlook for 2020 doesn’t look particularly hopeful. With that in mind, one wouldn’t be out of line to suggest Colorado should consider trading a couple of its top contributors whose team control is running out. Specifically, there’s shortstop Trevor Story and right-hander Jon Gray – two players who are only arbitration-eligible through the 2021 season. Story is projected to earn $11.5MM next season, while Gray should rake in around $5.6MM. Both salaries are bargains relative to what Story and Gray bring to the table, which is arguably all the more reason for the Rockies to listen to offers for the pair.

The 27-year-old Story is fresh off a two-season run in which he was unquestionably an elite shortstop, as he racked up 10.9 fWAR, slashed .293/.355/.561 with 72 home runs and 50 stolen bases across 1,312 plate appearances, and totaled 18 Defensive Runs Saved. Just about any team would sign up for that all-around production, and if you’re a club in need of a shortstop, there’s not much out there in free agency other than Didi Gregorius (who’s coming off a poor season). That’s yet another reason Story and his affordable two years of control would bring back a haul in a trade, one that could help the Rockies turn around a subpar farm system.

Although Story would generate widespread interest on the trade market, general manager Jeff Bridich and the Rockies don’t seem inclined to part with him, instead clinging to the hope that they’ll be able to extend him. Maybe a long-term pact for Story looks unlikely, though the Rox did manage to lock up third baseman Nolan Arenado last February – less than a year before he was slated to reach free agency – with a seven-year, $234MM extension. Keeping Story under wraps won’t cost that much, but the Arenado deal showed they’re willing to go all-out to keep premier talent on board.

As with Story, the Rockies appear as if they’ll retain Gray, even though the hard-throwing 28-year-old has garnered trade interest early this offseason. Gray wouldn’t fetch the return that Story would in a trade, but his aforementioned affordable salary and history of solid production are clearly appealing. Teams that may not necessarily want to splurge on the best free-agent starters (Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu, among others) could turn their focus to Gray if the Rockies are open to giving him up. But it doesn’t look as if that’s the case for Colorado, which, going forward, will apparently.hope for bounce-back seasons from its players who were letdowns in 2019 and attempt to return to relevance next year.

The question is: Should the Rockies essentially wave the white flag already on 2020 and trade Story, Gray or both standouts? With team control waning for each player, there’s a legitimate case that Colorado should go in another direction and opt for a rebuild.

(Poll link for app users)

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Rockies Reportedly Do Not Intend To Trade Jon Gray

By Jeff Todd and Anthony Franco | November 25, 2019 at 9:33pm CDT

While there has been some early chatter surrounding Rockies righty Jon Gray, that doesn’t mean we’re on the cusp of a major swap. Rather, per MLB.com’s Thomas Harding, the Rox are leaving rival organizations with the expectation that Gray will remain in Colorado.

As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored earlier this month, Gray seems a strong trade candidate on paper. The 28 year-old is projected for a reasonable $5.6MM salary in arbitration, but he comes with just two seasons of team control remaining. Gray took a step forward in 2019, posting a 3.84 ERA in 150 innings with solid strikeout (23.6%) and walk (8.8%) rates despite calling Coors Field home. As a team, however, the Rockies went backwards, stumbling to a 71-91 season after back-to-back postseason appearances.

Without much flexibility to spend this offseason, there was and is reason to believe Colorado will explore the trade market both to add MLB pieces and as a potential means of increasing organizational financial flexibility. In addition to possibly attempting to move the contracts of some older, more expensive players, it stands to reason that the team would at least endeavor to learn what kind of young talent might be had in a swap involving its marketable, mid-arbitration players.

Perhaps the Rox didn’t like what they heard when rivals came calling on Gray in recent weeks. No doubt the bar is set even higher when it comes to shortstop Trevor Story. Like Gray, the star shortstop comes with two more years of team control. Dealing one or both would make for something of an organizational reboot, even with other key MLB pieces still on hand.

It certainly doesn’t sound as if the Rockies are anxious to discuss Story in trade talks. To the contrary, the Athletic’s Nick Groke (subscription link) even characterizes the team as having real interest in an extension, although there’s no indication anything’s close on that front. Even if there’s mutual interest, it’ll be challenging to find common ground. Story only just turned 27, has established himself as one of the game’s best shortstops, possesses strong arbitration earning power ($11.5MM projection), and holds sky-high potential in free agency after the 2021 season.

If Colorado is to return to contention, strong seasons from Gray and Story would be key. The Rockies don’t seem likely to threaten the Dodgers in the NL West and probably won’t project as a favorite in the Wild Card race. But there is some compelling core talent on hand and the organization is understandably interested in trying to win while that group is in place. It seems GM Jeff Bridich and company are planning to stay the course this winter in hopes of bouncing back sooner rather than later.

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