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Notable Players Who Didn’t Receive Qualifying Offers

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Fourteen players were issued qualifying offers before today’s 4pm CT deadline, making the largest slate of offers extended since 20 players received the QO during the 2015-16 offseason.  Despite the large number, however, some notable (and surprising) names weren’t issued the one-year, $18.4MM contract by their teams, and will now enter free agency without any draft pick compensation attached to their services.

We already touched on Clayton Kershaw’s situation with the Dodgers, and now let’s look at the three other free agents (all pitchers) who were seen as possible or even probable candidates to receive the QO…

Jon Gray, Rockies

Perhaps the most curious non-decision of the day came from Denver, as the Rockies passed on giving Gray a qualifying offer despite their clear interest in retaining the right-hander.  The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reports that Gray “likely would have accepted” a qualifying offer, which likely factored into the team’s decision-making process.  It seems like the Rockies simply weren’t willing to pay Gray $18.4MM over one year, even though Colorado seemed comfortable in the range of a $13MM average annual value, as per their recent extension offer of a three-year deal worth around $35-$40MM.

It seems entirely possible that Gray could find more than three years and $40MM on the open market, especially without any QO compensation involved.  While the Rockies and Gray may yet work out a new contract, the Rox are now in the position of losing Gray for nothing.  This would be an especially tough blow for the club considering that they held onto Gray at the trade deadline out of the desire to sign him to a long-term extension.

Carlos Rodon, White Sox

Some late-season shoulder problems resulted in a trip to the injured list and then a reduced workload for the southpaw, putting a bit of a sour end to an otherwise tremendous year.  However, the White Sox declined to issue Rodon a qualifying offer, and may now be parting ways with Rodon entirely — both The Athletic’s James Fegan and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated that the Sox weren’t going to make an effort to bring Rodon back for another year on the South Side.

With this in mind, it seems clear that the White Sox didn’t want to run the risk of Rodon accepting the QO, which seemed like a distinct possibility given his late-season shoulder woes, not to mention his lengthy past injury history.  It could be that the Sox already consider Rodon as found money, considering they took a $3MM flier on him last winter and he delivered 132 2/3 innings of 2.37 ERA ball.  The team might also have further concerns about his long-term health.  As Fegan notes, Chicago could use some type of starting depth this offseason, but it looks as though the White Sox feel they can find that rotation help at a cheaper price than Rodon at $18.4MM.

Anthony DeSclafani, Giants

One of several pitchers who have revived their careers after coming to San Francisco, DeSclafani rebounded from a rough 2020 season with the Reds to post a 3.17 ERA over 167 2/3 frames in a Giants uniform.  With some less-than-stellar Statcast numbers, however, the Giants may not have been inclined to have DeSclafani back for $18.4MM, though the team does have designs on re-signing him if possible.

There was a decent chance DeSclafani would have accepted the Giants’ QO, just as Kevin Gausman did a season ago.  Since the Giants also issued a qualifying offer to Brandon Belt that could be accepted, the club was probably wary of committing $36.8MM to just two players for their 2022 payroll, even if San Francisco has quite a bit of financial room to maneuver.

Rockies Notes: Gray, Owings, Rodgers

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Jon Gray is a few days away from fielding offers around the league, after the 29-year-old rejected a three-year extension offer from the Rockies that reportedly landed in the $35-40MM range. It’s widely expected the Rox will issue him an $18.4MM qualifying offer before Sunday’s deadline, thereby at least entitling themselves draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere.

General manager Bill Schmidt has yet to formally announce the club’s intentions on a Gray QO, but he acknowledged to Thomas Harding of MLB.com the front office is “discussing” whether to do so. With the Rockies already willing to offer Gray $12-13MM annually over a three-year term, it’d be surprising if they weren’t willing to risk him accepting a one-year deal for just $5-6MM more.

Harding suggests in a separate piece that Colorado still hopes to eventually work out a deal with Gray, writing that the Rockies “believe they value Gray more than other teams.” Given that he’s shown himself capable of finding success in Coors Field, that’d certainly be plenty reasonable. Still, the pitcher and his representatives evidently believe there’s a chance they’ll find an offer that tops the Rockies’ proposal on the open market.

Retaining Gray would require a significant investment on Colorado’s part, but it’d be far easier to keep another of their free agents — Chris Owings — in the fold. Owings has spent the past two seasons with the Rockies, joining the organization on minor league deals in both instances. Colorado would like to bring Owings back in 2022, Harding hears. It’s possible that’d come via another minors pact, as the utilityman was limited to just 50 plate appearances this past season (albeit with a highly productive .326/.420/.628 line) by a pair of injuries to his left thumb.

One free agent who almost definitely will not be returning is Trevor Story. A lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, Story is all but certain to sign a significant multi-year deal elsewhere. The Rockies will have to address one middle infield spot this winter, then, and Harding writes they’re expected to target shortstop help. Brendan Rodgers came up as a shortstop prospect before moving to second base in deference to Story. It’s not out of the question Colorado could bump Rodgers back to short and add an external option at second base, but Harding hears the front office would prefer to keep the 25-year-old Rodgers at the keystone moving forward.

Rockies’ Extension Offer To Jon Gray Was In $35-40MM Range

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Two weeks ago, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported that the Rockies had made an unsuccessful extension offer to Jon Gray. Nick Groke and Eno Sarris of the Athletic shed a little more light on that effort, reporting that Colorado made a three-year offer in the $35-40MM range.

With extension overtures rejected, Gray is now set to hit the open market once the World Series wraps up this week. Groke and Sarris write that the Rox are likely to issue him an $18.4MM qualifying offer, which would entitle the club to draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere. Qualified free agents have ten days to decide whether to accept or reject the QO, so Gray and his representatives at CAA Sports will have some time to gauge interest before making the call on whether to return to Denver for a strong one-year salary or reject in hopes of landing a stronger multi-year offer.

Gray will be one of the trickier evaluations for teams looking through the market for free agent starters. The right-hander has two seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA on his resume, no small feat for a pitcher who calls Coors Field home. Outside of a terrible eight-start showing during last year’s shortened season, Gray has regularly posted strikeout rates a tick or two above the league average for starters. He’s put up similarly solid walk and ground-ball marks in recent years, and his 2021 campaign was largely par for the course.

Over 149 frames, Gray pitched to a 4.59 ERA with a slightly above-average 24.4% strikeout percentage and a 9% walk rate that’s a bit north of the league mark. Gray’s 11% swinging strike rate was almost exactly league average, while his 48.4% grounder percentage was a few points above par. That’s solid mid-rotation production, and there’s an argument to be made that he could yet have untapped upside.

A former #3 overall draft choice, Gray averaged 94.9 MPH on his heater. He backs that up with a slider that typically generates plenty of swings and misses. Gray will be entering his age-30 season, so rival clubs will surely be intrigued about the potential that power arsenal could wield outside of the league’s toughest environment for pitchers.

That said, there’s an argument that Gray has been less adversely effected by Coors Field than most. As Groke and Sarris explore in a piece that’ll be of interest to Rockies’ fans or those more generally interested in pitching, Gray’s primary combination of a low-spin fastball and slider seems most resistant to high altitude’s impact on pitch movements. Like any Rockies’ pitcher, Gray still has to contend against a home park that props up fly ball distances and has an expansive outfield (thus increasing the rate of hits allowed on balls in play), but his results may not be as inflated by the environment as those of some of his teammates. His ERA at home this year (4.02) was more than a full run lower than his road mark (5.22), in fact, although his home/road strikeout and walk splits were virtually identical.

Teams will be tasked with placing Gray amongst the third tier of free agent starters. Eduardo Rodríguez, Anthony DeSclafani, Steven Matz and Alex Wood are among the other mid-rotation options who’ll be available to clubs this winter. There figures to be quite a bit of variability among the league’s 30 clubs as to how they’d arrange that group on preference lists.

Of course, Gray could yet return to Colorado, whether by accepting a QO or agreeing to a multi-year free agent deal. Gray and the Rockies expressed mutual interest in an extension on multiple occasions over the past few months, and the front office didn’t move him at this past summer’s trade deadline. The Rox have already hammered out multi-year deals with rotation mate Antonio Senzatela (buying out his final two years of arbitration and extending their window of club control by an additional four seasons) and fellow impending free agent C.J. Cron. With the club planning to increase player payroll over the next two years, it stands to reason they’ll remain involved in the market for Gray as well.

Jon Gray Has Reportedly Rejected Extension Offer From Rockies

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Jon Gray rejected an extension offer the Rockies made him before the end of the regular season, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Gray continues to have interest in sticking with Colorado long-term, Saunders adds, although the expectation is now that he’ll at least test the open market.

There’s been reported mutual interest between the Rox and Gray in a long-term deal for months, but the sides have yet to line up on acceptable terms. Saunders suggests the right-hander could target a three or four-year deal with an average annual value in the $9-10MM range on the open market. Whether that kind of deal would be attainable could depend upon whether the Rockies tag Gray with a qualifying offer. Doing so would entitle the Rockies to draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere, although he’d be a strong candidate to accept an $18.4MM offer to return in 2022.

Perhaps that’d be a mutually agreeable outcome, since Colorado clearly has interest in retaining Gray. Despite already being out of postseason contention by late July, the Rockies seemingly made Gray unavailable relatively early on trade deadline day. That course of action makes little sense unless the team wants to keep him around, and subsequent reports made clear that’s the case.

Gray bounced back from an injury-plagued 2020 to post a solid season this year. Over 149 innings, the 29-year-old worked to a 4.59 ERA with average or better strikeout (24.4%), walk (9%) and ground-ball (48.4%) rates. He thrived at Coors Field, tossing 78 1/3 frames of 4.02 ERA ball while holding opponents to a .205/.291/.365 line in home starts. With how difficult it has proven for the Rockies to find pitchers capable of succeeding in the game’s most hitter-friendly environment, it’s easy to see why general manager Bill Schmidt and his staff have continually expressed interest in keeping Gray around.

Saunders adds some additional context on Colorado’s offseason priorities, writing that the club is expected to target “at least two impactful players.” What constitutes an impact addition is open to interpretation, but Saunders suggests the club will look for a power-hitting bat this winter, preferably an outfielder. He floats Nick Castellanos (almost certain to opt out of his contract with the Reds), Michael Conforto and utilityman Chris Taylor as possible targets.

That’s a varied collection of potential players of interest. Castellanos looks like a candidate for a nine-figure deal. Taylor has a strong case for a four-year contract in the $65+MM range. Conforto could land three or four years himself, but it’s also possible he looks for a one-year bounceback deal after a mediocre 2021 campaign. Signing any of that group would probably cost the Rockies a draft choice, as they’re all likely qualifying offer recipients.

As for other areas of need for the Rockies, Saunders floats the bullpen and middle infield. Shortstop Trevor Story is expected to reject a QO and sign elsewhere, leaving a middle infield vacancy. Former top prospect Brendan Rodgers has seemingly locked down one spot after hitting .284/.328/.470 across 415 plate appearances this past season. Rodgers is capable of manning either of shortstop or second base, leaving some flexibility for Schmidt and company in addressing the dirt.

Plugging all those position player gaps and/or retaining Gray would certainly make for a costly winter. Earlier this month, Colorado president Greg Feasel said the club was planning to increase payroll over the course of the next two offseasons — eventually pushing from 2021’s $118MM figure closer to their franchise-record $145MM mark from 2019. Colorado should indeed have spending room to work with, as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates they have around $79MM in 2022 commitments at the moment — including projected arbitration salaries.

That financial flexibility should give the front office real room for upgrades, but they’ll have a tall task in constructing a contender. The Rockies have finished in fourth place in the NL West in each of the past three seasons, and the impending departure of Story only makes a return to contention in that loaded division harder. Despite those challenges, Saunders’ report reinforces that the Rockies aren’t planning to take a step back this winter. They’re at least plotting a hopeful win-now course of action that could see them remain in the market for some of the offseason’s top free agent hitters.

Latest On Rockies’ Offseason Strategy

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It wasn’t that long ago that many thought Jon Gray’s days in Colorado were over. In July. With the team outside the playoff hunt, armchair wisdom suggested trading Gray at the deadline, but all accounts suggest they were more than comfortable keeping the big righty in Denver. He finished the year with a 4.59 ERA/4.22 FIP in 29 starts covering 149 innings. It wasn’t a stellar year, but it might be enough to leave other clubs curious about what he might be capable of outside of Colorado.

Inside Colorado, GM Bill Schmidt is now fully installed in his role, so there’s little reason to think his position has changed. They’d love to have Gray back. Gray, of course, will be a free agent the day after the World Series. The Rockies have no more a hold on Gray than the other 29 teams in the league (assuming they don’t extend a qualifying offer). There are rumblings of a contact extension being on the table, per The Athletic’s Nick Groke. Still, any agreement at this juncture would be surprising.

In terms of the rest of the roster, Schmidt’s recent comments provided by Groke suggest he may turn initially to the trade market, which would be a departure from normal operating procedure under former GM Jeff Bridich. If the Rockies do decide to dangle some of their players, Groke suggests Raimel Tapia, Brendan Rodgers, Colton Welker, Daniel Bard, Ryan Vilade, and Grant Lavigne as affordable assets that might draw attention. Comments from the club last season suggested they plan to build around Tapia and Ryan McMahon, so it would be a little surprising to see one of them move, even if there’s wisdom in exploring the options.

Rodgers, likewise, has hung around for long enough waiting to replace Trevor Story. The 25-year-old managed enough offensively to suggest he might be ready for that role. That said, 100 wRC+ and 1.6 fWAR in 415 plate appearances doesn’t scream superstar. The bigger question with Rodgers might be his position, as he may no longer be ticketed for shortstop. Still, he’s looking like a plus power bat at the keystone, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. That’s a fine future for Rodgers, but it does limit his potential future value.

Schmidt, of course, already made his first couple of big moves this winter, signing Antonio Senzatela and C.J. Cron to extensions. Those moves lend credence to Groke’s suggestions above to dangle the organization’s other first baggers like Welker and Lavigne on the trade block, despite their youth. Cron’s deal was just for two years, but it does provide the team with some surplus from which they might be comfortable dealing.

Latest On Jon Gray

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The Rockies have already begun their offseason work in earnest, hammering out contract extensions with Antonio Senzatela and C.J. Cron this afternoon. The front office has previously expressed interest in extending impending free agent Jon Gray as well, and that figures to be one of the next steps on the team’s priority list.

Colorado is still looking to work out a long-term deal with Gray, according to reports from Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. However, Feinsand hears there hasn’t been any recent progress in talks with Gray’s representatives at CAA Sports.

The third overall pick in the 2013 draft, Gray has been a career-long Rockie. He broke into the majors in 2015 and has been a consistent member of the rotation over the years since, flashing mid-rotation ability at his best. The right-hander posted a sub-4.00 ERA with above-average strikeout rates in both 2017 and 2019, no small feat given that he calls Coors Field home.

Gray’s shortened 2020 campaign didn’t go according to plan. His velocity dropped two miles per hour and he was knocked around for a 6.69 ERA over eight starts before ending the year on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. Gray entered 2021 as a bit of a question mark, but he bounced back from the down year to put together a nice season.

Over 149 innings, Gray worked to a 4.59 ERA with strikeout and walk rates (24.4% and 9%, respectively) both marginally higher than the league average. He racked up ground-balls at a strong 48.8% clip and induced swinging strikes on a solid 11% of his offerings. Gray also regained a tick on his average fastball after last season’s velocity dip, a trend that held even after he missed a bit of time in early September due to forearm tightness.

As today’s Senzatela extension demonstrates, the Rox front office is particularly keen on keeping pitchers who’ve demonstrated an ability to get outs in Denver’s high-altitude environment. Gray has put together strong home results (better than those he’s posted on the road, in fact) over the past couple seasons. Dating back to the start of 2019, he owns a 4.39 ERA/4.33 FIP over 178 1/3 innings at Coors Field. He’s allowed just 1.3 HR/9 and a .278 opponents’ batting average on balls in play in that time, avoiding the ills that plague most pitchers in that ballpark.

Of course, that Gray has had success at Coors Field doesn’t inherently mean he’ll continue to do so. But there’s at least proof of concept for the front office, and newly-minted general manager Bill Schmidt has seemingly made a concerted effort to keep the core of the current roster in the fold. The Rockies held onto Gray at the trade deadline, and while they could make him a qualifying offer and allow him to depart in free agency were he to decline, it seems likelier they’ll try to hammer out an extension before Gray ever hits the open market.

Rockies Notes: Schmidt, Feasel, Payroll, Offseason

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The Rockies officially promoted Bill Schmidt from interim GM to full-time general manager today, and Schmidt, manager Bud Black, and team president/COO Greg Feasel spoke with reporters (including Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post) about both the hiring and some of the team’s offseason plans.

The chief priority will be adding relief pitching and power bats, according to both Schmidt and Black.  Some of that power could come by retaining free agents such as Trevor Story and C.J. Cron, and Schmidt reiterated that the Rox have interest in re-signing both sluggers, as well as right-hander Jon Gray.

Though Colorado was out of the playoff race at midseason, the team controversially held onto Story, Cron, Gray, and most of its other impending free agents due in part to this desire to keep everyone in the fold.  In the wake of the trade deadline, Story indicated he was “confused” at not being dealt, and reports from back in June suggested that Story was already planning to move on from the Rockies following the season.  Today, Schmidt said simply that Story’s future in Denver is “up to him.  He knows how we feel about him.”

As to how the Rockies could retain their free agents, some extra spending appears to be in the works.  Roster Resource has Colorado’s current payroll at just over $116.8MM, down from the team’s spending in the $157MM range during the 2019 season.  With revenue levels becoming more normalized post-pandemic, Feasel said the Rockies intend to return to that higher spending capacity within two years’ time — “We think we are going to gain ground in ’22, and we think we’ll be back to 2018-19 levels in 2023.”

If Story did leave, his $18.5MM salary from 2021 could certainly be put towards a new contract for Gray and/or Cron.  2022 is also one of the seasons where the money owed to the Cardinals as part of the Nolan Arenado trade dips down; the Rockies only owe around $5.57MM to St. Louis in 2022, before that number spikes to $21MM in 2023, and then $5MM each in both 2024 and 2025.

While the Rox have some cash available, it remains to be seen exactly how that money will be spent, or how Schmidt will operate now that has the full reigns of an organization for the first time in his long career.  The lack of activity at the trade deadline didn’t provide many hints about Schmidt’s plans, and given Feasel’s payroll projection, it could be any real serious expenditures are held off until next winter.

The broader question also exists about how much things will really change in Colorado under the Schmidt regime, considering that Schmidt is already a long-time Rockies staffer, and owner Dick Monfort’s insular management style has come under heavy criticism.  To this end, some new voices are expected to join the mix, as Schmidt said the Rockies are already looking to increase the analytics department.  (An understaffed and sometimes-ignored analytics team was identified by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke as one of the Rockies’ many issues in a harsh spotlight and critique of the organization last March.)

When former GM Jeff Bridich resigned in April, the expectation was that the Rockies would conduct an external search for a new general manager or president of baseball operations following the season.  According to Feasel, however, Schmidt’s work as interim GM impressed upper management to the point that “he didn’t give us a choice…I mean, how many times you need to be hit over the head with a bat.  And he was the right guy for us at the right time.”

Details about Schmidt’s contract weren’t released, and it could be that Schmidt isn’t working under a traditional deal, as Feasel said there isn’t a firm length attached to Schmidt’s role.  “We consider him an officer of our club and we think that’s pretty special.  His standing is not going to change,” Feasel said.

Rockies Activate Jon Gray, Promote Colton Welker

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The Rockies announced Wednesday that they’ve reinstated right-hander Jon Gray from the 10-day injured list and called up infielder Colton Welker for his Major League debut. Righty Antonio Santos was also recalled to the MLB roster. In a trio of corresponding moves, the Rox put right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez on the 10-day injured list with a strained oblique, placed righty Robert Stephenson on the paternity list and optioned infielder Joshua Fuentes to Triple-A Albuquerque.

Gray returns to the club after a minimal stay on the injured list due to inflammation in his right forearm. It was a somewhat ominous diagnosis at the time, given the pronounced struggles Gray endured in the month of August, but a swift return is good news both for the club and for Gray as he nears his first foray into the free-agent market.

To this point in the season, Gray has posted a 4.13 ERA with a 23.1 percent strikeout rate, a 9.8 percent walk rate and a 49.9 percent ground-ball rate in 126 1/3 innings of work. Those solid numbers come in spite of a disastrous month of August, wherein Gray yielded a 6.55 ERA in 22 innings and lasted fewer than five innings in three of his five appearances.

Both Gray and the Rockies have made their mutual interest in some kind of extension known, though the recent injury hiccup could have some impact on the potential for a deal. At the very least, the Rockies likely want to see how Gray responds to 10 days of downtime before determining how to proceed. They reportedly intend to issue a qualifying offer to Gray, but it’s also possible the two sides work out a mutli-year deal at a lesser rate. Gray, of course, could also see what the market has to bear from other clubs upon receiving a QO from the Rockies. Players have 10 days to accept or reject their QOs, and they’re free to talk to other clubs during that time.

Turning to Welker, the 2016 fourth-rounder is getting his first look at the big league level. He’s long been ranked among the better prospects in a generally thin Rockies system, currently sitting eighth among their farmhands at FanGraphs, 20th at MLB.com and 23rd at Baseball America.

Welker has been limited to just 23 games and 93 plate appearances at the Triple-A level in 2021. He’s spent much of the year on the restricted list due to an 80-game suspension issued in May upon testing positive for a banned substance (dehydrochlormethyltestosterone). He’s one of several players to have pushed back against suspensions for trace amounts of the DHCMT long-term metabolite — picograms, in most cases — though to this point all suspensions under such circumstances have seemingly been upheld. (The Wall Street Journal’s Jared Diamond took an in-depth look at the situation last August.)

In his limited sample of work this season, Welker has been productive. He’s slashed .286/.378/.476 with three homers, five doubles, a triple and a 12.4 percent walk rate against a 20.7 percent strikeout rate. He’s spent all of his time at third base, though some scouting reports on Welker feel his range (or lack thereof) will eventually push him to first base. The Rockies don’t currently have a clear long-term answer at either corner infield position, so Welker seems likely to get a chance to prove he’s capable of seizing one of those two spots.

Rockies Place Jon Gray On Injured List, Select Julian Fernandez

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The Rockies announced Wednesday that they’ve placed right-hander Jon Gray on the 10-day injured list due to tightness in his right forearm. Colorado also selected the contract of right-hander Julian Fernandez and recalled righties Antonio Santos and Justin Lawrence from Triple-A Albuquerque as rosters expand to 28 players.

Forearm tightness is ominous for any pitcher and is particularly alarming given the manner in which Gray’s performance has dropped in recent weeks. A bright spot in the Rockies’ rotation for much of the season, Gray has compiled just 22 innings in his past five appearances and been rocked for a 6.55 earned run average in that time. There’s been no drop in his velocity, but the results alone are enough for concern when combined with an injury.

Gray is a free agent at season’s end, which prompted broad-reaching expectations that the Rockies would move him at the trade deadline. That didn’t happen, however, and the Rockies have voiced hope that they can keep Gray beyond the current season. The interest is mutual, as Gray has said he enjoys playing in Denver and would welcome a contract extension. The Rockies are currently expected to issue Gray a qualifying offer, which would be for one year in the $18-19MM range, but any arm injury of note could impact both the potential for a QO and the potential for a long-term deal.

Fernandez, 25, will be making his Major League debut when he first pitches in a game. The righty was originally signed by the Rockies out of the Dominican Republic and has had a rather unusual journey to the big leagues. The Rockies lost Fernandez to the division-rival Giants in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft, but he suffered a ligament injury in his pitching elbow that spring and required Tommy John surgery. The Giants carried him all through that 2018 season but removed him from the roster in November 2018 — at which point the Marlins claimed Fernandez. He spent much of the 2019 season continuing his rehab before suffering a setback that shut him down. Miami returned him to the Rockies in October 2019, nearly two years after he’d been selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

Because of those injuries and the lack of a minor league season in 2020, the 2021 campaign marks the first time since 2017 that Fernandez has pitched in an actual game. Finally healthy, the right-hander had a nice showing in Double-A before an even more impressive run in a hitter-friendly Triple-A setting. He’s pitched to a combined 2.53 ERA in 42 2/3 innings this season, including a sterling 0.64 mark in Triple-A, where he’s fanned a third of his opponents against just a 7.4 percent walk rate.

West Injury Notes: Paddack, Gray, Ibanez, Ohtani, Astros

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Padres starter Chris Paddack appears to be ready to come off the IL to start Monday’s game in Arizona, according to Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. Acee says that Padres manager Jayce Tingler didn’t confirm the plan, but then later listed Paddack as Monday’s starter on Twitter.

For Paddack, his third big league season has been a disappointing one, logging an ERA of 5.13 over 93 innings. That’s a spike from last year’s 4.73 and his 3.33 mark from 2019. His strikeout rate has also gone in the wrong direction. After a solid 26.9% rate in his debut season, it dropped to 23.7% last year and sits at 22.5% so far this year. However, his walk rate has stuck around 5% in every season, which is excellent. (MLB average is 8.7% this year.)

Despite those struggles, the team has certainly missed Paddack. Since the righty went on the shelf July 31st with an oblique issue, the team has been on a disastrous slide. They’ve gone 9-15 so far in the month of August, surrendering the final National League playoff spot to Cincinnati. During that time, the rotation was missing not only Paddack, but also Yu Darvish. They tried to patch over those absences with the addition of Jake Arrieta, only to see him land on the IL himself after just one start of 3 1/3 innings. With Darvish having already returned and Paddack on the way, that could allow the team to steady the ship and finish strong, as they try to retake the Reds over the season’s final weeks.

Other notes from the west…

  • Rockies starter Jon Gray left last night’s start after 48 pitches. Manager Bud Black told reporters, including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, that the move was precautionary and related to some forearm tightness. Nick Groke of The Athletic gets a bit more granular, explaining that the injured area appears to be away from the ulnar collateral ligament, hopefully negating the worst fears of Rockies fans. Though the extent of the injury remains to be seen, it makes sense for the club to be cautious, as they are 11 games out of a playoff spot. Gray is a free agent at year’s end, but the Rockies are reportedly hoping to sign him to an extension. They will also have to decide on whether or not to issue him a qualifying offer at the end of the season. Gray would surely warrant the offer if he’s healthy. Over 806 2/3 career innings, Gray has an ERA of 4.52 while pitching primarily in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league, producing 15.7 fWAR.
  • Rangers infielder Andy Ibanez left last night’s game with left hamstring tightness, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. She quotes Rangers manager Chris Woodward as being “not optimistic” about the injury. Regardless of the eventual severity of the injury, the club has every reason to be cautious, as they have one of the worst records in the league and no shot at contending. If this is the end of the season for Ibanez, it will go down as a solid rookie campaign for the 28-year-old. He’s hit .260/.304/.415, wRC+ of 96, while splitting time between first, second and third base, as well as one game in left field.
  • Shohei Ohtani was hit on the hand by a pitch in last night’s game, while serving as the designated hitter. However, he stuck around for the remainder of the contest and x-rays on the hand came back negative. Angels manager Jeff Madden told reporters, including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, that Ohtani should be fine to make his scheduled start on Tuesday. That is good news for the club and baseball fans in general, as Ohtani is having the most unique and fascinating season that baseball has seen in quite some time, if not ever. He’s currently the MLB home run leader with 41, and has an overall slash line of .264/.363/.623, producing a wRC+ of 160 which is currently bested by only two other qualified hitters. (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper) All of that is combined with Ohtani’s 105 innings in the Angels’ starting rotation with an ERA of 3.00.
  • The Astros could be getting a couple of players back this week. Jose Urquidy is pitching in a rehab game tonight, which could be his last before returning, according to Jake Kaplan of The Athletic. Urquidy has only been able to make 14 starts this season because of injuries but has been excellent when healthy, putting up an ERA of 3.38. It’s unclear who would be bumped from the rotation in his absence, but some have speculated that Luis Garcia could be an option. Garcia has already set a career high in innings pitched this year and has seen his results slip a bit recently. Since July 26th, he has an ERA of 4.22. The club has already moved another young starter, Cristian Javier, to the bullpen as a way to manage his workload. The Astros could also be welcoming Chas McCormick back later this week. General manager James Click told various reporters, including Mark Berman of Fox 26, that the outfielder could be back as soon as Friday. The club hasn’t suffered much in McCormick’s absence, given that Jake Meyers has been manning center field and has been on a tear. Since having his contract selected last month, in the first 20 games of his career, Meyers is slashing .323/.348/.523.
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