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What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?

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The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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Rangers Make 11 Roster Moves

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5:33PM: Gray will miss roughly a month of action, Bochy told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) and other reporters.

3:43PM: The Rangers announced a massive slate of roster moves this afternoon. Third baseman Josh Jung and left-hander Cody Bradford were each reinstated from the 60-day injured list while the club also recalled infielder Ezequiel Durán and righty Gerson Garabito.  To open roster spots for that quartet, right-hander Jon Gray was placed on the 15-day IL with a right groin strain, and Texas optioned three others to Triple-A — catcher Andrew Knizner, and infielders Justin Foscue and Jonathan Ornelas.  To open 40-man spots for Jung and Bradford, outfielder Evan Carter was transferred to the 60-day injured list and infielder Davis Wendzel was designated for assignment. Additionally, righty Austin Pruitt (who was on the 60-day IL) has been released.

Jung and Bradford are each set for their first MLB action since April, as Jung is returning from a complicated wrist surgery and Bradford was dealing with both a back strain and then a stress fracture in his rib.  Jung broke his wrist after being hit by a pitch in his fourth game of the season, while Bradford had an impressive 1.40 ERA in his first three starts (19 1/3 IP) before he was sidelined.

Emerging as the Rangers’ regular third baseman during his impressive rookie season, Jung helped the Rangers win last year’s World Series and was expected to continue developing in his sophomore year.  The good news for Texas is that Josh Smith’s strong work as the fill-in third baseman has helped the team make do in Jung’s absence, and with Jung now back, Smith can be bounced around the diamond to left field or DH so the Rangers can keep his bat in the lineup.

Despite Bradford’s great early numbers as a starter, the Rangers have already announced that he’ll return in a bullpen role.  Bradford was pressed into rotation duty at the start of the year due to the lengthy list of Texas pitchers on the IL, but with many of those arms now back, the Rangers find themselves with a pitching surplus on paper if everyone is healthy.  To this end, the club felt comfortable enough to subtract from this depth by trading Michael Lorenzen to the Royals.

However, the injury bug bit again yesterday when Gray injured his groin while warming up for his scheduled start against the Blue Jays.  Gray departed without throwing a pitch, and the right-hander will be out for at least the next 15 days.  Bradford has only worked as a multi-inning reliever during his rehab assignment and isn’t fully stretched out to start, but the Rangers have an off-day on Thursday and Tyler Mahle is on the verge of his own return from the IL, so Mahle seems the likeliest candidate to take Gray’s spot in the rotation in a week’s time.

This is Gray’s second groin-related IL stint this season, as he missed a couple of weeks in May and June with his previous injury.  When healthy, the righty has a 3.73 ERA and an impressive 5.8% walk rate over 94 innings, though he has allowed a lot of hard contact and his 19.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career over a full season.

Carter hasn’t played May 26 due to a lumbar sprain in his back, so he could technically return at any time since he has already missed over 60 days.  However, manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com and other media that Carter is set to visit a back specialist to explore some recurring soreness, and the Rangers have shut the outfielder down from the baseball activities Carter was taking part in prior to this recent development.

More will be known once Carter sees the specialist, but it’s obviously a concern that that the 21-year-old doesn’t appear to be any closer to a return.  Carter’s huge numbers after his Major League debut late last season and through the postseason provided the Rangers with a huge spark on their route to the championship, but with his bad back hampering him this year, Carter has hit only .188/.272/.361 in his first 162 PA of the 2024 campaign.

Pruitt signed a minors deal with Texas during the offseason, and that contract was selected to the active roster in April.  Pruitt appeared in only four games before a right meniscus injury sent him to the 15-day IL and then the 60-day IL.  He has spent the last month rehabbing in the minors and was at the end of the 30-day window for minor league rehab assignments, so the Rangers opted to release the righty rather than bring him back to the 26-man roster.  A veteran of seven MLB seasons, Pruitt will hit the open market again, though it might not be a surprise to see him re-sign with Texas pretty quickly on a fresh minor league deal.

Wendzel was selected 41st overall by the Rangers in the 2019 draft, and he made his big league debut this season the form of 27 games and 49 plate appearances.  He saw some work at third base during Jung’s IL stint, but Wendzel mostly came off the bench, and he hit just .128/.163/.234 in his first look at MLB pitching.

The 27-year-old has hit well at Triple-A over the last two seasons, including a 30-homer campaign for Round Rock in 2023.  Wendzel has mostly played third base and shortstop during his minor league career with a few other looks at the other two infield spots and in left field, so between this defensive versatility and his Triple-A numbers, he might be a candidate to be claimed by a team in need of infield depth.

Latest On Rangers’ Deadline Plans

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The Rangers made their first move of the summer earlier this evening by dealing a pair of prospects to the Tigers in exchange for catcher Carson Kelly, who figures to replace Andrew Knizner in the club’s catching tandem alongside 2023 All-Star Jonah Heim. The move confirms that the reigning World Series champs won’t be full-blown sellers despite a lackluster 51-55 record that leaves them 4.5 games back of the Astros and Mariners in the AL West, but that doesn’t mean the club necessarily plans to buy exclusively in the coming days, either.

As noted by Joel Sherman of the New York Post in a report this evening, the Rangers are making right-hander Michael Lorenzen available on the trade market. The news comes after The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested that Lorenzen (as well as right-hander Jon Gray) could be made available prior to the deadline earlier this week. The 32-year-old Lorenzen has pitched solidly as a back-of-the-rotation option for Texas this year with a 3.87 ERA in 18 starts, though the veteran’s 5.26 FIP and 11.9% walk rate could be worrisome to prospective buyers.

In a sellers’ market starved for pitching options, it’s easy to imagine how a pitcher like Lorenzen who has plenty of experience both as a starter and as a reliever could be an attractive trade target even in spite of worrisome peripheral numbers. Meanwhile, dealing Lorenzen would allow the Rangers to recoup some long-term value for a pending free agent who could be forced out of his current role on the team by the impending returns of Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom, and Cody Bradford from injury.

That doesn’t mean that Lorenzen is a lock to be moved, however, as Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today writes that the Rangers could opt to take the right-hander off the market in the aftermath of Gray exiting his start today without throwing a pitch due to a groin injury. As noted by Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, Gray is set to undergo imaging to determine the severity of the issue. With none of Mahle, Bradford, nor deGrom likely to be ready to step into the club’s rotation just yet, a significant absence for Gray could complicate the club’s plans to deal Lorenzen by leaving them with only Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and Andrew Heaney as active members of the starting rotation.

Wilson goes on to suggest, however, the Lorenzen isn’t the only name the club could consider shopping in the coming days. Wilson reports that first baseman Nathaniel Lowe’s “name has surfaced” as a potential trade chip for the Rangers this summer amid an excellent July that has boosted his overall season slash line to .266/.361/.390 (114 wRC+). While Lowe could certainly be a potentially valuable addition for certain teams, two of the most obvious suitors for a first baseman this deadline are the Rangers’ own division rivals in Houston and Seattle. Even in an age where intradivisional trading has become more common, its hard to imagine the Rangers helping either the Astros or Mariners improve in the short terms as they look to chase them down for the AL West title this year. Still, it’s possible the Rangers are able to find a suitor for Lowe’s services elsewhere, such as in Pittsburgh where the Pirates could look to upgrade over Rowdy Tellez at first base.

The loss of Lowe from the lineup would further weaken a beleaguered Rangers offense, but Wilson goes on to suggest that dealing Lowe could open up a spot in the club’s lineup for Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz. Diaz is currently on the restricted list due to an undisclosed personal matter, but the Rangers were connected to him earlier this week. Diaz has slashed just .272/.327/.400 (111 wRC+) this year following a slow start to the season but is just one year removed from a sixth-place finish in AL MVP voting with the Rays last season.

The 32-year-old is controllable through the 2026 season just like Lowe is, and it’s theoretically possible that the Rangers could look to upgrade first base while retaining the same amount of team control should they manage to land Diaz while shipping Lowe elsewhere. Alternatively, it’s certainly feasible that the club could retain both players and utilize one as their primary DH for the remainder of the 2024 campaign before looking to trade one this winter should the club decide to commit fully to buying this summer. Such a move would provide an undeniable boost to the Texas offense, which has gotten an MLB-worst 57 wRC+ from the DH spot in the lineup this year.

Latest On Rangers’ Rotation, Trade Possibilities

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The Rangers have patched together their rotation for much of the season as they anticipate the returns of veterans Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom. Scherzer has already returned. Mahle is set to make his fifth minor league rehab start today and should make his Rangers debut before long. It’ll be a bit longer before deGrom makes it back, but he tossed a 40-pitch bullpen just yesterday, per Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com. Left-hander Cody Bradford is on a minor league rehab assignment and expected to return soon, though Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that he’ll work out of the bullpen upon his return. Texas reinstated righty Dane Dunning from the injured list earlier today, too. He’s in the ’pen for now but could move back to a starting role depending on how the next week goes.

What once was a starting pitching hodgepodge looks increasingly enviable. If Mahle is cleared to return after today’s start, he’ll join Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney and Dunning as viable rotation options, with Bradford in the bullpen and deGrom looming on the horizon. That’s nine MLB-caliber starters, to say nothing of veteran starter Jose Ureña (who started six games but is in the bullpen presently).

With so many options suddenly at their fingertips, there’s been plenty of speculation about the Rangers trading from that stockpile of arms — even as they narrow the deficit in the postseason hunt. Texas has won four straight games. The Mariners have lost three straight. The Rangers now sit only three games back of the first-place Astros in the West and are just 5.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt. They’re not going to operate as a pure seller, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests that Lorenzen or perhaps even Gray could be moved before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Lorenzen, 32, signed with the Rangers on a one-year, $4.5MM deal in spring training. It was a bargain price for a veteran righty coming off a solid season, and he’s proven to be well worth the investment. He’s pitched 97 innings over the course of 17 starts and turned in a 3.53 ERA. Lorenzen’s 18.5% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate both leave plenty to be desired and point to some likely ERA regression, but he’s been precisely the type of veteran rotation stabilizer the Rangers hoped to be acquiring when signing him.

As of deadline day, Lorenzen will have just $1.5MM of that base salary yet to be paid out. He’s already picked up $800K of innings-based incentives and will get another $200K when he reaches 100 innings, likely in his next start. Assuming that comes with the Rangers — he’s their probable starter Saturday — a new team would be on the hook for the remaining portion of his base and additional incentives he’d unlock by reaching 120 innings ($300K), 140 innings ($350K), 160 innings ($400K) and 180 innings ($450K). He’s on pace to barely reach that final milestone.

At most, a team adding Lorenzen would pay around $1.5MM in base salary and an additional $1.5MM worth of incentives. If Lorenzen is pitching well enough to reach that 180-inning mark, it’d be considered money well spent. If nothing else, a budget-conscious team looking to add a stable starter (e.g. Twins, Guardians) could view Lorenzen as an affordable option.

Gray would be a more surprising trade candidate. He’s in the third season of a four-year, $56MM contract that’s paying $13MM both this year and next. Thus far, he’s posted 94 innings of 3.73 ERA ball on the season. While Gray’s 19.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career (aside from the shortened 2020 season), his 5.8% walk rate is a career-best mark. He’s still averaging 95 mph with his heater, while his opponents’ chase rate and swinging-strike rate are roughly in line with his 2022-23 marks.

Rosenthal also cites a pair of names the Rangers would prefer to hang onto even as they ponder trading from their rotation depth: Eovaldi and Heaney. The former is well on his way to vesting a $20MM player option for the 2025 season. That option would decrease his trade value — a new team would be stuck with the $20MM in the event of a major, post-trade injury. Beyond that, Eovaldi has been one of the team’s best arms this season, notching a 3.31 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate in 106 innings. He’d likely be ticketed for their playoff rotation, should they get there. And, even if they don’t, the Rangers might simply hope Eovaldi stays healthy and enjoys pitching in his home state enough that he’d pick up that player option for the 2025 season.

As for Heaney, he’s turned things around after a shaky first season in Texas. The veteran southpaw boasts a 3.60 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate in exactly 100 innings. He’s a free agent at season’s end, so one would imagine he’s an on-paper trade candidate in this scenario where Texas deals from its excess. However, the Rangers don’t have an established left-hander in their bullpen. Brock Burke was excellent in 2022 but took a step back in ’23 and was optioned earlier this season after being shelled through 9 2/3 innings. Rookie Jacob Latz has a solid 3.68 ERA in 36 2/3 innings, but he’s walked 13.5% of his opponents. Bradford could possibly fill that role, but he’s yet to return from a stress reaction in his ribcage.

Heaney has experience pitching both as a starter and reliever, including during his time with Texas. He’s throwing well right now but would likely be pushed out of a theoretical postseason rotation. In that setting, he could slide into the bullpen and match up against tough lefties and/or provide multiple innings in long relief.

Rangers Notes: Scherzer, Gray, Jung

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TODAY: Scherzer began his rehab assignment today, tossing 53 pitches over four scoreless innings for Triple-A Round Rock.  As noted by Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, Scherzer’s sinker was averaging 93mph, and he threw the pitch 22 times among his 53 overall offerings while allowing only one hit and one walk in the five-strikeout outing.  The Rangers plan to build Scherzer up to a 75-pitch count before evaluating whether or not he might be ready to return to the majors.

JUNE 8: The Rangers activated right-hander Jon Gray from the 10-day injured list this afternoon, just over two weeks after he was initially shelved due to a groin strain. That quick turnaround has left Gray not fully stretched out to start, and Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News wrote this afternoon that the right-hander would be eased back into his role with the club in a relief role before later rejoining the starting mix. According to Grant, the decision to first use Gray in relief before adding him back to the rotation mix his next time up allowed the Rangers to skip a minor league rehab stint for the 32-year-old hurler.

That plan came to pass this evening, as Gray pitched 2 1/3 scoreless frames in relief of Andrew Heaney during this evening’s loss to the Giants. Regardless of the role he’s pitching in, Gray’s return figures to provide a huge boost to the Rangers pitching staff. After all, the righty boasted a 2.21 ERA and 2.52 FIP in 57 frames at the time of his placement on the IL with a solid 23.7% strikeout rate and a 44.4% groundball rate that represents his best work since joining the Rangers prior to the 2021 season. With starters Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Cody Bradford, and Tyler Mahle all currently in the midst of lengthy absences, Gray’s speedy return from the shelf figures to be key for the Rangers as they look to get themselves back into the hunt for the postseason. The club has scuffled in recent weeks and currently sports a 30-34 record that puts them five games back of the Mariners for the AL West crown and three games out of the final AL Wild Card spot.

Fortunately, Gray isn’t the only key player who could return from injury in the near future. Grant also relays that third baseman Josh Jung, who has been shelved for the majority of the season due to a broken wrist, has begun taken live batting practice and could be slated for a rehab assignment as soon as this coming Tuesday. Grant adds that Rangers brass are expected to set a schedule for Jung tomorrow that could firm up those plans.

Jung made it into just four games with the Rangers before he was sidelined this year, but he was hitting a scorching .412/.474/.941 in that microscopic sample size before the injury put him out of action. Since the start of Jung’s 2023 campaign, he’s been a well above average offensive contributor for Texas at third base with a .271/.320/.483 slash line, 26 doubles, and 25 home runs in 534 trips to the plate across just 126 games. Josh Smith has performed well at the hot corner in Jung’s absence, although the 26-year-old’s return from the injured list would still improve the club’s offense by allowing the team to push Ezequiel Duran and his 92 wRC+ into a bench role.

Turning back to the pitching staff, veteran ace Max Scherzer also made progress in his rehab earlier this week, as MLB.com’s Injury Tracker notes that he threw 40-50 pitches across two innings of live batting practice earlier this week, with Scherzer himself telling reporters that he hopes to start a minor league rehab assignment soon. It’s been a rocky road to recovery for Scherzer this season as he entered the 2024 campaign projected to return from offseason back surgery around the All Star break before seemingly progressing ahead of schedule. That left him and the Rangers eyeing sometime in May for his return, although a nerve issue in Scherzer’s thumb ultimately required a cortisone shot and caused the club to shut the veteran righty down.

Now that Scherzer is throwing to hitters once again, he appears to be on a similar track to the one he was projected for at the time of his surgery, with a return later this month or in early July now a seemingly realistic target so long as he avoids additional setbacks. After being swapped from the Mets to the Rangers in exchange for Luisangel Acuna last summer, the future Hall of Famer pitched to a 3.20 ERA and 3.41 FIP in eight starts for the club down the stretch with an excellent 29.9% strikeout rate but dealt with injuries that limited both his availability and his effectiveness during the club’s postseason run that culminated in the first World Series championship in franchise history. Looking ahead, his return to action should further bolster the pitching staff in Texas while allowing the Rangers to shift the likes of Heaney and Jose Urena into relief after early season rotation injuries forced them into starting roles.

Rangers Place Jon Gray On 15-Day Injured List

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The Rangers are placing right-hander Jon Gray on the injured list due to a groin strain, manager Bruce Bochy announced this morning (X link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). The team is terming it a “mild” strain, but it’ll nevertheless be enough to sit Gray down for at least the next 15 days. In a corresponding move, Texas will select the contract of right-hander Jesus Tinoco from Triple-A Round Rock. Left-hander Cody Bradford is being transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL to accommodate Tinoco’s addition. Bradford has already missed six weeks with a back strain and stress fracture in his ribs.

Gray joins an an entire rotation’s worth of starters on the injured list in Texas. The Rangers are also without Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, Nathan Eovaldi and the aforementioned Bradford at the moment. That’ll leave Texas with a rotation including Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, Michael Lorenzen, Jose Ureña and a yet-to-be-determined fifth option. (Tinoco is a reliever and won’t step onto the starting staff.) The top depth options on the 40-man roster include Jack Leiter and Owen White. While Leiter has thrived pitching in Triple-A, both of those once-vaunted prospects has struggled in the big leagues this season.

Subtracting Gray from the roster would be a notable blow even without that litany of other injuries. The former No. 3 overall draft pick is out to perhaps the best start of his career, pitching to a tiny 2.21 ERA through his first 57 frames of the season. Gray’s 23.7% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 44.4% ground-ball rate are all at or slightly better than the league average. His ERA is being helped out by a microscopic 3.3% homer-to-flyball rate that’s helped him average just 0.32 homers per nine frames this season. But even metrics that normalize home run rate (e.g. his 3.68 SIERA) suggest Gray has still been a decidedly above-average hurler thanks to that strong blend of whiffs, grounders and walks (or lack thereof).

Tinoco, 29, will return for a second stint with the Rangers. He pitched in the Texas organization in 2022, famously giving up Aaron Judge’s record-breaking 62nd home run late in the season. That’s a down note in what was otherwise a strong year. In 20 2/3 frames with the Rangers he logged a 2.18 ERA — albeit with lackluster strikeout and walk rates of 21.4% and 11.9%, respectively.

Tinoco spent the 2023 season with the Seibu Lions in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and handled himself well for the most part, but he returned stateside on a minor league pact with the Rangers over the winter. He’s gotten out to a decent start in Round Rock, pitching to a 3.80 earned run average and fanning just over 30% of his opponents in 21 1/3 innings. Overall, Tinoco has pitched in parts of four MLB seasons and compiled 66 2/3 innings with a 4.05 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 13.9% walk rate and 44% grounder rate. Command has clearly been an issue for him throughout his professional career, and that’s been the case again in 2024, evidenced by an 11.2% walk rate in Round Rock.

Astros, Rangers Announce ALCS Rosters

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Game 1 of the AL Championship Series is scheduled for this evening, with the Rangers taking on the Astros in Houston at 7:15pm CT. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander (3.22 ERA) will take the mound for the Astros opposite southpaw Jordan Montgomery (3.20 ERA). Both clubs have announced their 26-man rosters for the upcoming series.

The most noteworthy inclusions on these rosters are Texas right-handers Max Scherzer and Jon Gray, both of whom were seen as possibilities for the ALCS but not guaranteed due to health issues. Scherzer has been working his way back from a teres major strain since mid-September, while Jon Gray has been on the shelf in recent weeks with forearm tightness. Scherzer is expected to join a starting group for the Rangers that already contains Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi, with some combination of Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning rounding out the group.

Gray, meanwhile, will head to the bullpen as a potential multi-inning option alongside Martin Perez. Departing the roster in deference to the two veterans are lefty Brock Burke, who allowed two runs on one hit and one walk while recording just one out during the ALDS, and Matt Bush, who has not made an appearance during the postseason this year but was also on the club’s ALDS roster.

Meanwhile, Houston’s roster features less intrigue. Right-hander Kendall Graveman was held off the roster due to ongoing shoulder troubles, as previously expected. The only change from the club’s ALDS roster is the addition of Ronel Blanco, who posted a 4.50 ERA and 5.99 FIP in 17 starts for the Astros this season and gives the club an additional multi-inning option out of the bullpen. He’ll take the roster spot of outfielder Jake Meyers, who did not appear during the ALDS against the Twins.

The rosters…

Astros

Rangers

Rangers Rotation Could Be A Strength In ALCS

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Over the 2022-23 offseason, the Rangers concentrated their attention and resources on the rotation. They signed Jacob deGrom, the biggest name on the market, and Nathan Eovaldi, a World Series champion and postseason hero. They re-signed Martin Perez, an 11-year veteran and a 2022 All-Star. They took a chance on the injury-prone Andrew Heaney, who flashed dominant strikeout stuff over the second half of the season.

Suffice it to say, very little went according to plan. deGrom went down at the end of April. Eovaldi looked like a Cy Young contender through the All-Star break, but a forearm strain ruined the second half of his season. Perez, meanwhile, struggled so badly through the first four months that he wound up in the bullpen after the trade deadline. Heaney was a similar case; he lasted longer in the rotation but never quite found his groove, and he landed in the bullpen in September. Jon Gray, who signed with Texas a year prior, was reliable for much of the season but suffered a forearm strain of his own in late September.

That’s a whole lot of misfortune for a team that still finished fifth in the AL in rotation ERA and FanGraphs WAR, not to mention a team that made the playoffs and swept its way to the ALCS. While the pre-season plan didn’t exactly work out, the Rangers made the best of some tough breaks with depth and aggressive trades at the deadline. Now, as they prepare to take on the Astros, the rotation could be as strong as it’s been since April.

Eovaldi has put his rough September far behind him with two phenomenal postseason starts. Across 13 2/3 innings, he has given up just two runs while striking out 15 and walking none. The righty is harkening back to his performance with the 2018 Red Sox, but even then, he was never quite as effective as he’s been over his last two outings.

Meanwhile, trade deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery has been superb, pitching to a 2.79 ERA in August and September and a 3.27 ERA in the playoffs. While he has had a few rough starts, including his performance against the Orioles on Sunday, he has looked dominant more often than not, such as in his gem against the Rays last Tuesday.

Those two will lead the way in the ALCS, and with several off days between their victory last night and Game 1 on Sunday, the Rangers can set up their rotation however they’d like. That means Montgomery in Game 1, Eovaldi in Game 2, and no need to piggyback Heaney and Dane Dunning to open the series. In fact, Texas might not need to piggyback Heaney and Dunning at all.

Max Scherzer, another deadline addition for Texas, is approaching a preternatural return from a teres major strain. He seemed like a long shot for the playoffs until relatively recently, but he has been ramping up his throwing program in October, and now it looks like he could make the ALCS roster. As Evan Grant reported for The Dallas Morning News, the three-time Cy Young winner threw a simulated game on Wednesday, and he feels good about his chances to pitch against the Astros.

Grant had a similarly positive update about Gray, who plans to ramp up his rehab this week. He is not as far along as Scherzer, but he also didn’t miss as much time. If he gets back on a mound in the coming days, he, too, could be ready for the ALCS.

Neither Scherzer nor Gray is likely to pitch deep into a game. It’s a good thing, then, that manager Bruce Bochy has several converted starters in his bullpen. Not all of them will make the roster if Scherzer and Gray both return, but even so, the Rangers have plenty of options to pitch the middle innings. A rotation of Montgomery, Eovaldi, Scherzer, and Gray (with Heaney, Dunning, and Perez providing depth) should give Texas a chance to win every time out.

The starting rotation was supposed to be a strength for the Rangers this year. At the best of times, it has been just that, but more often than not, it’s been a large, looming question mark instead. The questions will remain until Scherzer and Gray actually take the ball, but all the same, this rotation is in a better place than it has been for quite some time.

Rangers Place Jon Gray On Injured List

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The Rangers placed starter Jon Gray on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 28, with forearm tightness. Jake Latz is up from Triple-A to take the open spot on the active roster.

Gray left his start in Anaheim on Monday with the injury. It’ll take him out of consideration for the first two rounds of the playoffs. Texas is one win away from securing a playoff berth. They’re up two games on the Astros for the AL West lead with three to play. Even after last night’s walk-off loss in Seattle, they remain the favorite to take the division — which would lock in a bye past the Wild Card series.

Texas would have to make it to the ALCS for Gray to be a potential factor. The 15 days rules him out until October 13, which would be the fifth game of a Division Series. The Rangers could technically reinstate Gray if they’re playing in a decisive Game 5, though that’d require an injury to another player and presumably be too risky for the club even if it were feasible.

It’s not clear if Gray would’ve been in the playoff rotation even were he healthy. Jordan Montgomery would very likely get the first game. Nathan Eovaldi and Dane Dunning could fill the rest of a three-man rotation. Gray has been a consistent presence throughout the season, yet his production has tailed off. He has a 5.32 ERA since the All-Star Break and is allowing over six earned runs per nine this month.

Gray joins Max Scherzer as injured Rangers’ starters hoping for a potential return deep into a postseason run. Scherzer has been sidelined by a terse major strain for the past few weeks.

Rangers Move Martín Pérez To Bullpen

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The Rangers brought in some new additions to their rotation at the deadline, acquiring both Max Scherzer from the Mets and Jordan Montgomery from the Cardinals. One of them will replace Nathan Eovaldi, who recently landed on the injured list. Another opening will be created by veteran Martín Pérez getting bumped to the bullpen, reports Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News. “It doesn’t mean that’s where he’s going to stay,” manager Bruce Bochy said of the move for Pérez. “But for this time around, that’s the plan.”

Pérez, 32, has a long track of being a serviceable major league pitcher. By the end of the 2021 season, he had tossed 1102 2/3 innings, allowing 4.71 earned runs per nine innings. His 15.3% strikeout rate was well below average, but his 8.3% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball were both solid enough to allow him to be of use.

For 2022, he signed a one-year, $4MM deal with the Rangers and went on to have a career year. He made 32 starts and posted a 2.89 ERA over 196 1/3 innings, getting his strikeout rate up to a career high of 20.6% while still limiting walks and grounders. That earned him a well-deserved raise, as the Rangers issued him a $19.65MM qualifying offer, which he accepted.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build off that late-career breakout. His strikeout bump has vanished, as his 14.4% rate this year is low even by his standards. The walk rate is still solid at 8.6% but he’s only getting grounders at a 41% clip, a huge drop from last year’s 51.4% rate. His ERA on the year is 4.98, with only five qualified pitchers worse than him in that department this year. It’s also been trending in a bad direction, as he had a 2.41 ERA at the end of April but a 6.15 mark since the start of May.

With those results, it’s not shocking that he’s been nudged out of the starting mix. This is a road he has travelled down before, as the Red Sox bumped him to the bullpen in 2021, though he was able to get back on track with the aforementioned breakout in 2022. Perhaps he will do so again at some point but the Texas rotation will now seem to consist of Scherzer, Montgomery, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning.

Dunning started the year in the bullpen but jumped into the rotation when Jacob deGrom landed on the injured list, later to require Tommy John surgery. In 16 starts since the start of May, Dunning has a 3.43 ERA. His 17.6% strikeout rate in that time isn’t especially impressive but he’s higher than Pérez in that department while also walking just 6.7% of hitters and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.9% clip.

It seems those strong results will allow him to keep his starting gig, at least for the time being. As Bochy mentioned, the club could mix things up again in the months to come, though the group could get a bit more crowded. Bochy expects the club to have Eovaldi back after a minimum IL stint, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com, which will make it harder both for Pérez to get back in the mix and for Dunning to keep his spot. Perhaps Eovaldi’s return would see Dunning hold his spot and Heaney get bumped to the bullpen since the latter has a lackluster 4.36 ERA on the season. But he has been trending better of late, with a 2.95 mark in his last four outings.

Of course, the final few months could also see some plot twists that change all of this, best laid plans and whatnot. The AL West is shaping up to be a fascinating race to watch in the final months, as the Rangers made their aforementioned rotation additions while the Astros got Justin Verlander and the Angels nabbed Lucas Giolito. The Rangers will undoubtedly be making whatever moves they feel give them the best shot at success in the weeks to come, with the large salary of Pérez not enough to keep him from the bullpen. He’ll return to the open market this winter while Dunning will qualify for arbitration for the first time.

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