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Twins Notes: Middle Infield, Jeffers, Romero

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The Twins are receiving trade interest both in their upper-level middle infield prospects and in controllable players on their big league roster, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That’s not exactly earth-shattering news, given the manner in which teams covet affordable long-term pieces — particularly this offseason. Rosenthal still outlines a possibility of Minnesota moving someone like second baseman Luis Arraez in order to slide Jorge Polanco over to second base. Doing so could come as part of a trade package for a high-end shortstop (e.g. Trevor Story) or help in the rotation, with a free-agent shortstop then being brought in as a bridge to top prospect Royce Lewis.

We’ve written about the possibility of the Twins making middle-infield moves despite a clear hole here at MLBTR, and from my vantage point it doesn’t seem the Twins would even need to move Arraez to justify bringing in a shortstop upgrade if they wish. Polanco has never been a strong defensive shortstop, even prior to a pair of ankle surgeries, and would seem perfectly well suited to play the same super-utility role that was recently held by departing free agent Marwin Gonzalez. There are myriad avenues they could take, but a move at shortstop doesn’t seem outlandish for the Twins, even with Polanco in tow. He’s set to earn $4.33MM in 2021, $5MM in 2022 and $7.5MM in 2023 before the Twins have a pair of club options valued at $10.5MM and $12MM.

More out of Minneapolis/St. Paul…

  • The Twins announced earlier this week that catcher Ryan Jeffers underwent an offseason procedure to remove loose bodies from his right elbow. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the operation isn’t expected to delay Jeffers’ availability for the 2021 season, though, with manager Rocco Baldelli telling Miller and others that Jeffers is already nearly back up to speed. Jeffers, 23, jumped to the Majors to fill in for an injured Mitch Garver in 2020 and not only held his own but may have even cemented his spot on the 2021 roster. In 26 games, the 2018 second-rounder took 62 plate appearances and posted a .273/.355/.436 slash with three homers. Jeffers did skip Triple-A entirely due to the lack of a minor league season, though, so the Twins could conceivably add a veteran backup if the hope is to get him a bit more seasoning. Doing so would also afford Jeffers everyday reps rather than have him serve in a more limited role behind Garver.
  • Minnesota’s decision to release Fernando Romero yesterday (and Romero quickly signing with the Yokohama BayStars) was examined by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, who reports that Romero didn’t draw much trade attention from MLB teams.  The Twins simply weren’t certain whether Romero would be able to pitch in the United States after visa issues prevented him from entering the country in 2020, and as president of baseball ops Derek Falvey said, “it felt like given all the circumstances around this year and going forward, plus his desired pursuit of Japan, it kind of felt like the best combination.”

Twins Rumors: Cruz, Rotation, Shortstop, Arbitration, Payroll

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The Twins made a one-year offer to Nelson Cruz back in October, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports, but at least for the moment, that offer is no longer on the table. The two sides both still hope to work out a reunion, but because Cruz is still seeking a two-year deal, he intends to wait further clarity on the status of the universal designated hitter before agreeing to terms. It’s a sensible approach for Cruz, whose market in the American League is somewhat limited by the number of clubs with aging veterans, dedicated DHs and/or budgetary constraints. A universal DH would open several new pathways for the slugger to land that two-year pact he apparently seeks.

Some more notes out of the Twin Cities…

  • In the latest edition of his podcast, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson reports that the Twins have some interest in former Indians ace Corey Kluber (audio link, Twins chatter beginning at 8:07). That’s not a huge surprise given that president of baseball operations Derek Falvey was in Cleveland’s front office when Kluber was acquired from the Padres and broke out as a star. Elsewhere on the rotation front, Wolfson notes that the Twins are not among the most aggressive suitors for Jake Odorizzi to this point. Odorizzi would prefer to return to Minnesota, all things being equal, but is receiving stronger interest from other teams. Wolfson adds that the Twins had interest in Mike Minor before he landed with the Royals but weren’t willing to go near the surprising two-year, $18MM deal he landed in Kansas City.
  • Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic break down the Twins’ options at shortstop this winter, ranging from adding a veteran backup in the Freddy Galvis mold to a more aggressive pursuit of a starting shortstop, which would push Jorge Polanco into a super-utility role (an approach outlined in our Twins Offseason Outlook a couple weeks back). With Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons on the market, one could craft an argument that any fit the Twins. Polanco has had two ankle surgeries over the past two years and was never a premium defender at short, but as a shortstop/second baseman/third baseman, he could provide value at a number of spots. I’d point out that Simmons has had major ankle injuries in both of the past two seasons, however, so signing him comes with some of the same risks associated with Polanco. The Angels have filled their shortstop vacancy with Jose Iglesias, while each of the Reds, Phillies and A’s have (to varying extents) signified that they’re reducing payroll. That could create an opportunity for the Twins to enter the market if they choose.
  • Also at The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal spoke with a number of agents who praised the Twins for their approach to arbitration this winter. The arbitration system is generally archaic, but it is particularly ill-equipped to contextualize the results of a 60-game season. Minnesota is the only club that has entirely wrapped up its arbitration class already, and several player reps tell Rosenthal that the Twins deserve credit for being willing to find a middle ground rather early rather than drawing a hard line to maximize savings. “It took both parties acknowledging the difficulties of a COVID-19 season and the reality that the traditional arbitration matrix was not entirely relevant this offseason,” agent Mark Rodgers, who represents Taylor Rogers, told Rosenthal. Falvey told Rosenthal the Twins “wanted to be creative” prior to the tender deadline. “[Agents] feel no different than we do about the uniqueness of this year, so we decided this was the best course of action,” said Falvey.
  • Certainly, the Twins’ approach to arbitration will create some good will with agents moving forward, but the team also stands to benefit. Few other clubs in baseball right now can project their 2021 payroll more accurately than the Twins, which gives Falvey, GM Thad Levine, the rest of the front office and owner Jim Pohlad more clarity as to their spending capacity in the coming months. Minnesota has plenty of work to do this winter, with several relievers departing, a need in the rotation and Cruz on the market. However, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark noted in analyzing this year’s slate of non-tenders that every executive from another club with whom he spoke for the piece expects the Twins to spend this winter. Minnesota’s payroll checks in just shy of $92MM right now — well short of last year’s full-season Opening Day mark of $133MM. They probably won’t spend back up to that level, but it does appear there’s some room for additions.

Jorge Polanco Undergoes Ankle Surgery

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OCT. 12: Polanco had surgery last week to remove “a mild bone spur and small bone chip on his right ankle,” Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets. The Twins expect Polanco to be fine for spring training.

OCT. 1: The Twins’ season came to an unceremonious end Wednesday with a two-game elimination against the Astros. The back-to-back AL Central champions could now see one of their key players go under the knife, as president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said Thursday that shortstop Jorge Polanco may need surgery as a result of right ankle problems, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic and Phil Miller of the Star Tribune were among those to report.

“He battled every day, but he was not playing at full strength for a good chunk of the year,” Falvey said of Polanco, who missed just five of the Twins’ 60 regular-season games.

It was only a year ago that Polanco broke out as one of the majors’ finest infielders, slashing .295/.356/.485 with 22 home runs and 4.0 fWAR in 704 plate appearances. This year wasn’t nearly as successful – Polanco, 27, hit .258/.304/.354 with four HRs over 226 PA – but it appears his health (or lack thereof) played a role in his statistical decline.

Notably, Polanco underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right ankle last November, though it doesn’t appear that procedure erased his issues. Falvey said the Twins “need to assess whether or not there is something else going on there that we need to address.”

How The Delayed Season Impacts The Twins

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All 30 big league clubs are waiting to see whether a 2020 season will be played at all, but assuming a season is able to take place in some capacity, the prolonged delay will impact some clubs more than others. We’ve already run through the Yankees, Angels, Phillies and Athletics in this regard.

Turning to the Twins, who’ll be looking to defend their first division crown since 2010, they’ll suddenly have the opportunity to get nearly a full season out of one of their most important pitching pickups of the winter: left-hander Rich Hill.

Rich Hill | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The 40-year-old Hill underwent “primary repair” surgery on his left ulnar collateral ligament over the winter and inked a one-year, $3MM deal with Minnesota (plus $9.5MM of available incentives), knowing that he’d miss the first few months of the season. Primary repair is a less invasive alternative to Tommy John surgery that can be pursued depending on the extent of the tear and its location within the ligament; Hill’s injury met the requisite criteria, and he was targeting a June or July return to the mound. It’s now possible he’ll be ready to join the Twins’ rotation early in a truncated season — if not from the very outset.

Manager Rocco Baldelli gave an update on Hill’s status in a recent interview with Steve Phillips and Eduardo Perez on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, suggesting that Hill is rehabbing and throwing and has “done very well — about as well as you could ask for.” To this point, there’s no reason to think his initial rehab timetable needs adjustment.

Hill wasn’t the ace that many Twins fans hoped to see the front office add this winter, but on a per-inning basis he remains highly effective. The durability concerns with the veteran southpaw are very real even if his recovery from offseason surgery goes as planned, but there’s no denying how good Hill has been recently when able to take the mound. In 58 2/3 innings last season, the lefty pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 11.0 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 — despite pitching part of the season with the ligament damage that necessitated his surgery. Hill only managed 327 regular-season innings over the past three years, but he logged a 3.30 ERA with just under 11 punchouts per nine frames in that time and also chipped in 37 innings of 2.43 ERA ball in the playoffs.

The postponement of Opening Day not only gives Hill more time to get up to speed — it also should allow the Twins to more easily manage his innings. It’s likely that rosters will be expanded at least early on, which should give Baldelli some extra relievers if the club wants to limit Hill to three to five innings per outing to begin the season. One of the Twins’ previously projected fifth starter candidates — Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe or non-roster invitee Jhoulys Chacin — could potentially be paired with Hill in a tandem or piggyback type of arrangement.

Additional downtime will also allow the Twins to ensure that several key players are at full strength to begin the year. None of Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco or Marwin Gonzalez was expected to open the 2020 campaign on the injured list, but each is recovering from surgery. Buxton went under the knife last September to repair a torn labrum and was only just about to get into Grapefruit League games when Spring Training was suspended. Baldelli has said Buxton would’ve been ready for Opening Day, but there shouldn’t be any doubt about his shoulder’s well-being now.

Polanco, meanwhile, underwent surgery to repair an ankle injury that dogged him throughout the 2019 season. He appeared fine at the plate, hitting .295/.356/.485 with 22 long balls, 40 doubles and seven triples, but it’s possible that the nagging ankle issue contributed to Polanco’s lackluster defensive ratings and his lack of stolen bases (just four). Gonzalez, meanwhile, underwent a debridement of the patellar tendon in his right knee over the winter and was a bit behind schedule in camp. He should be fully up to speed once play resumes.

There are also possible implications for suspended right-hander Michael Pineda, who still has 39 games remaining on a reduced 60-game ban issued late last year. That suspension will still be in effect if the 2020 season is able to be played, and there’s been no indication that it’d be shortened or prorated to reflect the reduction of games on this year’s schedule. If the season is canceled entirely, however, ESPN’s Jeff Passan has previously reported that drug suspension wouldn’t carry into the 2021 campaign. Pineda would seemingly be able to join the rotation from day one.

The hope in Minnesota is that by the end of whatever season we get, Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, Hill and Pineda will combine to make the bulk of the starts. With six starters, plus the trio of Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe on hand as depth options (and perhaps Chacin as well), the Twins should be well-equipped to handle regular doubleheaders and fewer off-days in the accelerated regular-season schedule.

In a worst-case scenario that sees the season postponed entirely, the Twins could see holdovers Odorizzi, Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz and Trevor May all reach free agency. Meanwhile, Hill, Bailey, Tyler Clippard and Alex Avila could depart without ever formally suiting up in a game that counts.

Twins Notes: Donaldson, Polanco, Sano

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The Twins’ initial four-year offer to Josh Donaldson was for $84MM, per Phil Miller and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Shortly thereafter, the team grew pessimistic about signing him, as reports that Donaldson was seeking a $110MM guarantee surfaced. Minnesota’s addition of a fifth-year option with a huge buyout ($16MM option, $8MM buyout) not only boosted the contract’s guarantee to $92MM but also increased the possibility of Donaldson eventually reaching the $100MM mark, which was important to his camp. That increase, of course, also helped the Twins to outbid the rest of the field, which included the Braves, Nationals and, to a lesser extent, the Dodgers and Rangers.

Donaldson himself chatted with Alison Mastrangelo of Channel 2 WSB News in Atlanta about his decision to choose the Twins over the Braves (Twitter links, with video). “Ultimately it wasn’t in the same realm for me [financially],” Donaldson said. “This is going to be my 13th year in the big leagues. I’ve been on a lot of one-year contracts, and the Twins were in a position to where they could offer me a lengthy deal where I thought it was right for me and my family.”

The third baseman called the opportunity to suit up for the Braves, who he grew up watching a “dream come true,” but added that Atlanta wound up “offering me late — like a day or so before.” A return simply “didn’t work out,” Donaldson summed. On the Twins, he expressed excitement over joining a contender with a deep lineup and noted that he’s had success hitting at Minneapolis’ Target Field throughout his career.

More from the Twin Cities…

  • Shortstop Jorge Polanco, who underwent surgery to repair a chronic ankle issue in November, is likely to resume baseball activities this week, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North radio. There was no expectation at the time of the surgery that Polanco’s rehab would extend into Spring Training or the regular season, though it’s nevertheless a positive for the Twins that the 26-year-old’s rehab is seemingly on track. Polanco turned in a strong .295/.356/.485 slash and a career-high 22 home runs in 2019, but he also posted some of the game’s lowest marks in Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average. Ongoing ankle troubles surely didn’t help Polanco’s mobility, but it’s still tough to expect him to make significant contributions on the defensive side of things.
  • Miguel Sano will shift across the diamond to first base now that the Twins have emerged victorious in the Donaldson bidding, and the slugger has no issue with that move, writes Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Sano has been working out at first base all winter and said he’s plenty willing to make the switch. (In the aforementioned Star Tribune column, Sano even revealed that he sent a video message to Donaldson in the final days of his free agency, urging him to come to Minnesota to “join the Bomba Squad.”) Moreover, Sano made clear that he hopes to stay in Minnesota well beyond the 2023 season — the final year of club control on the $30MM extension he just signed: “I think regardless of winning or losing, I’ve made up my mind,” Sano said. “I want to spend my entire career here, so this is the first step.”

Jorge Polanco Undergoes Arthroscopic Surgery On Right Ankle

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Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco is expected to need six weeks of recovery after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right ankle last Friday, according to an announcement from the team.  The surgery was intended to fix what was described as a chronic issue for Polanco, and the All-Star should be fully recovered by the start of Spring Training.

Polanco was a major part of the Twins’ 101-win season, hitting .295/.356/.485 with 22 homers over 704 plate appearances.  Only six players in all of baseball racked up more PA than Polanco in 2019, and only 35 players appeared in more than Polanco’s 153 games played.  Though his defense was something of a mixed bag depending on the metric (a -15.7 UZR/150 but +1 Defensive Runs Saved), Polanco still an immensely valuable player, posting 4.0 fWAR for Minnesota.

This career year was just about the best possible rebound for Polanco, who had something to prove following a 2018 season that saw him receive an 80-game PED suspension.  Polanco’s performance immediately made the Twins look wise for locking up the shortstop on a five-year, $25.75MM extension last February.  That deal also contains a pair of club options ($10.5MM for 2024, $12MM for 2025) that could keep Polanco in the Twin Cities through his age-31 season.

Super-utilityman Marwin Gonzalez and infielder Ehire Adrianza are on hand for the Twins if Polanco does need any extra recovery time, though by all accounts this appears to be a fairly minor surgery.  Polanco didn’t appear too bothered by his ankle problem during his very durable 2019, though he did post only a .706 OPS over 102 PA in September.  He rebounded for a .273/.429/.545 slash line over 14 PA in the ALDS, as Polanco was one of the few Twins who performed at the plate during the club’s three-game sweep at the Yankees’ hands.

AL Notes: Twins, Astros, Gurriel, Angels

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Although the Twins’ have enjoyed a rapid turnaround from 78 wins a season ago to 101 wins and a division title this year, that breakout has roots tracing back to 2009, writes Dan Hayes of The Athletic. A decade ago, the Twins landed a transformative class of international amateurs—Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco—that blossomed into franchise cornerstones and 2019 stars. At the time, the $4.65MM the team doled out to land the three 16-year-olds was uncharacteristic for the Twins franchise, which had largely been a non-factor in the international scene; the team had no academy in the Dominican Republic and had virtually no connections with the players’ pseudo-agents. That made it especially difficult to land Sano, a coveted prospect who commanded a $3.15MM bonus and captured the attention of nearly every MLB club. On the other hand, there was less competition for Kepler, a German-born prospect, and Polanco, a scrawny teenager who lacked the projectability of Sano. Of course, those signings have delivered immense value to a team that has ridden Polanco, Kepler, and Sano to the franchise’s first division title since 2010. According to Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR, those three have been the 2019 Twins’ first-, third-, and seventh-most valuable players, combining to contribute 12.8 wins of value to the team.

  • At age 35, Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel could be playing himself into another contract with Houston’s club, writes The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Gurriel has enjoyed a career year at an age where he should be declining, perhaps a reflection of his acclimation to the game in the United States. The 2020 season will be the last under his current contract, a five-year, $47MM deal inked prior to 2016, when he defected to the U.S. as one of Cuba’s most accomplished players. He’s by no means the star of a stacked lineup in Houston—he most often slots into the sixth spot for the Astros—but he has delivered solid offensive value, thanks in part to an in-season mechanical change, a focus on lifting the ball, and a heightened focus on preparation.
  • With eliminated teams beginning to consider offseason decisions, the Angels will have to decide whether to protect 26-year-old infielder Jose Rojas or expose him to the Rule 5 Draft. He posted career-best numbers at Triple-A this year, slugging 31 home runs and a .293/.362/.577 batting line. Mike DiGiovanna of Baseball America takes a look at Rojas’s case, pointing out that teams around baseball are having some difficulty tuning their evaluation of Triple-A players to the drastically altered offensive environment at the level. Since Triple-A leagues introduced the MLB-used baseball for the 2019 season, power numbers have universally spiked in Triple-A. With the reliability of raw home run numbers in question, DiGiovanna points out that teams are increasingly reliant on their scouts’ eyes in their valuation of Triple-A players.

The Twin Gems Of The Spring Extensions

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The dizzying run of extensions this spring drew quite a lot of attention. Several contracts were pointed to as being notably team friendly. Others were of obvious importance because they involved superstars entering walk years.

The sheer volume of transactions tended to obscure the fine details of each particular decision. And several of the extensions were all but buried in the news. When the Twins set up the mics to announce extensions for Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler, the full rush of deals hadn’t yet occurred. But the moves came at the same time that star hurlers Aaron Nola and Luis Severino were signing on the dotted line, drawing much of the attention away from a Minnesota club that was coming off of a middling 2018 season and hadn’t been quite as bold as might have been anticipated in free agency. And the flood of later signings ensured that the Twins’ deals would receive relatively little attention.

Frankly, given the costs involved, those signings did not represent an especially monumental moment for the franchise. The Joe Mauer contract, this was not. The Twins did not strike deals with top young starter Jose Berrios or high-end outfielder Eddie Rosario, both of whom would likely have commanded bigger dollars. Better-known former top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano weren’t really in position for extensions after rough seasons.

So, did we sleep on the Twins? From a team perspective, the roster upside was obvious, but nobody foresaw a 36-17 start to the year and a ten-game lead over the sagging Indians. And what of the extensions they signed? Any sober examination of the Polanco and Kepler contracts at the time of signing would have noted the potential upside but settled on relatively modest expectations. With a third of the season in the books, both deals look like slam dunks.

Let’s look first at Polanco. When the Twins promised him $25.75MM over five years, they were obviously quite comfortable with the risks and had expectations of excess value. But it’s hard to imagine they anticipated the sort of monster production they’ve received from the 25-year-old shortstop.

When MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed to Jose Ramirez as a comp, he was thinking primarily of the latter’s contract — not his ensuing breakout. As it turns out, Polanco has followed Ramirez in converting contact ability into power.

This can’t be called a total surprise. As Adams wrote in assessing the Polanco deal, “if he can tap into a bit more power, there’s perhaps room to take his game to another offensive level.” Certainly, the Twins felt there was something more in the tank after a strong but hardly elite showing in 2018. The stated expectation was that the “best is yet to come” and that Polanco would “continue to develop and grow.”

But that was all projection and feel-good press conference talk. Did anyone really think Polanco would turn on the jets in this manner? He’s now slashing .332/.404/.584 with nine home runs in 228 plate appearances. Better yet, he has boosted his walk rate up to 10.5% and hasn’t even needed to add swing and miss (14.9% strikeout rate) to boost his pop. There’s likely a bit of regression in store, with a .363 BABIP and decent spread in Statcast results/expectations (.418 wOBA vs. .382 xwOBA). But the arrow is obviously pointed upward.

It’s easy to see how the contract could become the sort of bargain that helps fuel a lengthy contention window. One need only look at Ramirez. The Twins had ample control over Polanco already, as he was only a 2+ service-class, non-Super Two player. (He’d have had more but for an ill-advised PED suspension.) Because they made the deal before arbitration and in advance of a true breakout, the Twins can control Polanco through the 2025 season for a total cost of just $47MM, with the final two seasons coming via option ($10.5MM/$1MM buyout, $12.5MM/$750K buyout).

Things are looking quite nice on the Kepler side of things as well. He inked a five-year, $35MM deal. The calculus was different from the get-go in his case, though the decision to make the deal was also driven by a belief that he was primed to improve. Kepler had already reached arbitration as a Super Two, agreeing to a $3.125MM salary with the organization earlier in the winter. With three more arb trips to build from that baseline, and a track record of solid home run production, Kepler was able to command a higher payday.

In some respects, this was the riskier deal for the team. True, he had shown plenty of skill: the 26-year-old had already cracked twenty long balls, turned in three seasons of .180+ isolated power, and made great strides in his plate discipline in 2018 (11.6% walk rate vs. 15.7% strikeout rate). He’s also regarded as a quality defensive outfielder. At the same time, it took a bit of a leap of faith to entrust this kind of cash in a corner outfielder that hadn’t yet turned in a full season of league-average production by measure of wRC+.

So far, so good. Kepler has already launched a dozen long balls in 211 plate appearances. He’s maintaining that strong K/BB blend. And he’s up to a .281 batting average on a .272 batting average on balls in play — a reversal of some poor fortune from 2018 (.224 batting average, .236 BABIP). Statcast credits him with more hard contact (44.5%) and a loftier launch angle (17.2 degrees) than ever before.

Kepler’s early showing surely makes the Twins feel even better about their commitment than they did at the time. Beyond the $35MM guaranteed, the Twins have another year of control at just $10MM ($1MM buyout).

Will Polanco and Kepler keep this up for the long haul? Or even the duration of the present season? That’s hard to say. A fair but conservative estimate would anticipate some regression. But it’d also recognize a very real increase in the present and anticipated future on-field value of these players.

While these contracts largely fell through the cracks at the time they were struck, they now look to be among the best buys of the spring. The team deserves credit for rightly identifying these targets. But it’s also a credit to Polanco and Kepler. They accepted reasonably fair deals, based upon their prior track records, then set to work turning those contracts into potential bargains. As for the Twins organization, these deals didn’t change the near-term complexion of the roster in the least. But they sure do help brighten the long-term outlook.

Twins To Extend Jorge Polanco

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2:15pm: Polanco will earn $3.583MM in 2019, $3.833MM in 2020, $4.333MM in 2021, $5.5MM in 2022 and $7.5MM in 2023, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).

His 2024 club option is valued at $10.5MM with a $1MM buyout, while the 2025 option is worth $12.5MM with a $750K buyout. The first of those two options is also a vesting option that would automatically trigger if Polanco tallies 550 plate appearances in 2023. His base salaries on the option years can increase based on All-Star nominations, Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers.

9:45am: Polanco’s deal will pay him $25.75MM over the next five years, and it also includes club options for the 2024 and 2025 seasons, per Jim Bowden of The Athletic (Twitter link).

8:34am: ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that the contract will cover a total of seven seasons, at least five of which are guaranteed. The deal will indeed be in the range of Ramirez’s extension with Cleveland, though it’s expected to exceed that $26MM guarantee by a bit.

7:50am: The Twins and shortstop Jorge Polanco are nearing the finalization of a contract extension, reports Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (via Twitter). La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported earlier this week that Minnesota was optimistic about reaching perhaps multiple contract extensions in the near future. The 25-year-old Polanco is represented by Octagon.

Jorge Polanco | Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The switch-hitting Polanco was already under control for another four seasons and was not yet eligible for arbitration, but the new arrangement in question will presumably keep him in the fold longer than that. To this point in his career, the former top prospect has compiled a .272/.329/.420 slash line with 23 home runs, 64 doubles, 11 triples and 25 steals through 1167 plate appearances.

Polanco, long touted as a potential infield fixture for the Twins, got off to a dreadful start to his 2017 season, hitting just .213/.265/.305 through his first 310 plate appearances. He rebounded with a torrid final two months, hitting .316/.377/.553 to close out the year, though that production was met with some skepticism when Polanco was suspended for 80 games to open the 2018 season after testing positive for a banned substance (Stanozolol). Polanco hit well in his return from that suspension, though, slashing .288/.345/.427 with 27 extra-base hits in 333 plate appearances to close out the season.

While Polanco doesn’t post huge walk rates (7.5 percent in each of the past two seasons as well as in his overall career), he draws enough free passes and is a tough enough strikeout (16.2 percent) that there’s little doubt in his ability to consistently get on base. At the very least, he should be a useful source of batting average and on-base skills with modest pop and a bit of speed, though if he can tap into a bit more power, there’s perhaps room to take his game to another offensive level.

Defensively speaking, there was some question surrounding Polanco’s home on the diamond as he rose through the Twins’ system. While he was consistently given work at shortstop, some scouting reports felt he was best-suited for either second base or third base and would eventually have to move to either position. He hasn’t been a star defender at short thus far, but he’s held his own there over the past two seasons, with Defensive Runs Saved (-2) pegging him as below average but passable. Ultimate Zone Rating has been less kind (-8).

For the time being, with Jonathan Schoop at second base and Miguel Sano at the hot corner, Polanco will reprise his role as the team’s shortstop. It’s not difficult to envision a different alignment in the near future, however, with former No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis soaring through the system and barreling toward the Majors with top 10 overall prospect fanfare. While Lewis is quite likely more than a year from reaching the game’s top level, he could usurp Polanco at shortstop when that happens, pushing him to either second base (depending on the status of former first-round pick Nick Gordon) or to third base (with Sano potentially slotting in at first base or DH).

Terms of the would-be extension aren’t yet known, but a look in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker could provide some useful context. Taking a look at other middle infielders with two to three years of service, Polanco has nearly the same service time that a pre-breakout Jose Ramirez had with the Indians when he signed a five-year deal worth a guaranteed $26MM (plus two options). Ramirez, to that point in his career, was a .275/.331/.404 hitter — numbers that closely resemble Polanco’s own .272/.329/.420 line.

From a payroll perspective, the Twins have zero issues fitting Polanco — or virtually any player in baseball — onto the long-term ledger. Minnesota is the only organization in MLB that doesn’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books for the 2020 season, with the only dollars they’re technically committed to beyond 2019 coming in the form of a $300K buyout on Nelson Cruz’s one-year contract.

The Polanco extension and any others — Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Jose Berrios are among other candidates for multi-year deals — will change that outlook, though chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine will nonetheless have ample payroll space to make any moves they wish in the near future given that largely blank slate. If anything, the cost certainty added from a Polanco deal and any other extensions will only make it easier for the team to look at adding pieces from outside the organization, as they’ll paint a clearer picture of exactly how much money is being spent over the next several years.

Twins Reinstate Jorge Polanco, Option Byron Buxton, Designate Ryan LaMarre

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2:56pm: In addition to the previously reported moves, the Twins announced that they’ve optioned lefty Adalberto Mejia to Triple-A. More interesting, though, is the fact that they’ve reinstated Byron Buxton from his rehab assignment and also optioned him to Rochester. That means that two of the centerpieces of the Twins’ young core — Sano and Buxton — have both been optioned to the minors just one season after seemingly establishing themselves at the big league level.

It’s been a tough season for Buxton, admittedly. The 24-year-old went on the disabled list early in the season due to a severe bout of migraines — similar to the issue that sent New York’s Brandon Drury to the DL. While playing on a minor league rehab assignment from that issue, Buxton fouled a ball into his foot and sustained a broken big toe. The Twins made the curious decision to bring him back a couple of weeks later despite the fact that the toe was still healing and without sending him back out on a rehab assignment.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Buxton was dreadful at the plate under those circumstances; in 51 plate appearances between DL stints, he hit just .122/.140/.163. Buxton has yet to find his swing in Rochester, albeit through just 11 games on a new rehab assignment. But the extent of his struggles, after a prolonged development period in which there were doubts he’d ever realize the potential he showed last season, have to be of fairly significant concern — especially when juxtaposed with the struggles of Sano to this point in the season as well.

Given the fact that Minnesota has received no on-field value from the combination of Sano, Buxton and still-rehabbing righty Ervin Santana, it’s not exactly surprising that the Twins are nine games back from the Indians in the AL Central division.

2:32pm: The Twins are set to reinstate Jorge Polanco from his 80-game suspension following a failed PED test, as La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported earlier today that righty Zack Littell would also be returning to the Majors and will work in a relief role for the time being (Twitter link).

In order to clear a spot on what is currently a full 40-man roster to accommodate Polanco’s activation, the Twins are set to designate outfielder Ryan LaMarre for assignment, Neal further reports (via Twitter). They’ll need to make a second move to recall Littell.

Polanco, 25 on Thursday, was expected to serve as the Twins’ everyday shortstop after a strong second-half showing in 2017. The former top 100 prospect got off to a poor start to the season last year but slashed .316/.377/.553 with 10 homers, 15 doubles and a pair of triples in his final 234 plate appearances in August and September.

Polanco was plagued by a dismal .239 BABIP through the first four months of the 2017 season, and his improvement in the final two months correlates nicely with a fairly significant drop in his chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone. However, an 80-game suspension fresh off a breakout finish to the season will undoubtedly lead to plenty of skeptics about his ability to maintain that output. He’ll hope to retake an everyday role in the Twins’ infield and prove that he’s able to repeat that output moving forward.

With Miguel Sano still in the minors following a terrible run to open the season, there should be ample opportunity for Polanco to earn his way back into the lineup. Minnesota has been relying on Eduardo Escobar at third base with Sano in Fort Myers, and while Ehire Adrianza has been a surprisingly productive hitter of late, he’s a soon-to-be 29-year-old defensive specialist without much of a track record of offense. Polanco should figure into the mix prominently in the early going from his return. And, depending on whether the Twins are able to right the ship over the next four weeks, further at-bats could become all the easier to come by; both Escobar and Brian Dozier are free agents at season’s end.

As for LaMarre, the 30-year-old has batted .263/.321/.313 through 109 plate appearances with Minnesota, logging plenty of time in center field with Byron Buxton on the shelf. LaMarre has fanned at a 30.3 percent clip in the Majors, however, and he’s currently in Triple-A Rochester despite the fact that Buxton is not yet back from his rehab assignment.

LaMarre joined the Twins on a minor league pact this winter and served as a useful depth piece given the minor league options he had remaining, so the Twins likely would prefer to see him clear waivers and remain in the organization. Having previously been outrighted, though, LaMarre will have the option of electing free agency even if he does clear waivers.

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