Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander reportedly drew interest from several suitors over the offseason, but the Astros, his former team, were the only club known to have spoken with the three-time Cy Young winner before he signed a one-year, $15MM contract with the Giants. Yet, a new story from The Athletic’s Chandler Rome suggests a reunion between Verlander and Houston was never even close to a reality. Although the two sides kept in touch over the winter – Verlander told Rome he spoke with owner Jim Crane “a lot” and that they had “mutual interest” in a deal – the Astros did not make the veteran an offer.

According to Verlander, he continued his talks with Crane after the Giants made it clear they were interested in his services. At that point, however, Verlander says Crane told him that the Astros were not “even in a place to make an offer.” To some, this might not come as much of a surprise. After all, one could argue that the writing was on the wall for Verlander in Houston as soon as the Astros left him off their postseason roster last October. On the other hand, Verlander himself did not see it that way. He told Rome that he did not truly consider, at that time, the possibility that his final start with the Astros last season might be his final ever outing with the club.

The Astros paid the luxury tax for the first time in 2024. While Crane told reporters (including Rome) in November that the team had “the wherewithal” to continue spending at the same level in 2025, Houston ultimately ended up cutting payroll significantly. According to the estimates from RosterResource, the club’s payroll is $25MM lower right now than it was at the end of last season, while their luxury tax payroll is about $3.5MM below the first tax threshold. It’s not as if GM Dana Brown had no money to spend this past offseason; he signed Christian Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal. However, the Astros also let Alex Bregman walk and shaved payroll by trading Kyle Tucker. Meanwhile, Brown’s only notable addition to a starting rotation that certainly could have used some help was Hayden Wesneski, acquired in the Tucker trade. The 27-year-old right-hander comes with promise and former top prospect upside, but he has never started more than 11 games in a season. He is scheduled to make his Astros debut this evening against the Giants.

All that to say, it sure seems like the luxury tax was the primary obstacle that got in the way of a reunion between Verlander and the Astros. Rome’s reporting suggests the same. While neither Crane nor Brown ever explicitly stated that the team needed to get back below the first luxury tax threshold, Rome reports that the club operated as if that were the case.

So, was last season the end of the line for Verlander and the Astros? Not necessarily. There is clearly a strong relationship between the two. Crane’s Astros have traded for Verlander twice, extended him once, and re-signed him in free agency once. Meanwhile, Verlander told Rome he would “always entertain the idea of coming back” to Houston. With that said, he is now 42 years old, and it’s not far-fetched to wonder if this season could be his last. Then again, Verlander hasn’t given any indication that he’s thinking about retirement. Last fall, he told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that he felt like he still had “a lot more to give pitching-wise.” He showed as much in his first start of the 2025 season, giving the Giants five innings of two-run ball, striking out five, and walking just one. If Verlander is looking for a team again next winter, and the Astros are willing to spend a bit more cash, it would hardly be surprising to see the two linked once again.

In a recent appearance on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight podcast, Astros GM Dana Brown said the club had been in contact with free agent right-hander Justin Verlander about a possible reunion.  “We’ve had conversations with his agent [ISE’s Mark Pieper] just to try to feel him out.  I don’t know if there’s been a lot of progress, but we’re having conversations,” Brown said.

Unsurprisingly, it doesn’t sound like either side is quite ready to make a move this relatively early in the offseason.  As Brown noted earlier in the podcast, the Astros’ top priority at the moment is trying to re-sign Alex Bregman.  That high-profile pursuit is taking much of the team’s focus, even if Brown noted that the club is doing its due diligence on other potential moves (such as finding another third baseman) as well.

“If [Verlander] continues to work and he’s healthy, it’s going to be interesting to see where he goes and how much he gets.  But I’m sure there will be a bunch of teams calling the agent,” Brown said.  This is perhaps reading too much into wording, but Brown’s phrasing almost seemed to imply more of an arm’s length approach, as if the Astros were more curious spectators to Verlander’s market than active participants.

Verlander turns 42 in February, but he made it clear following the season that he wanted to return in 2025, and rebound from an injury-marred 2024 campaign.  The right-hander was limited to 90 1/3 innings due to a pair of injured-list stints prompted by shoulder injury and then neck discomfort.  The latter injury was particularly troublesome, as Verlander missed about 2.5 months due his neck issue and didn’t pitch well after he returned, leaving him feeling like he probably tried to come back too quickly.  The end result was a 5.48 ERA, the highest of Verlander’s career apart from the 7.11 ERA he posted over an 11 1/3-inning sample size in his very first Major League season in 2005.

It was just two seasons ago that Verlander won his third AL Cy Young Award, and in 2023, Verlander was still solid with a 3.22 ERA over 162 1/3 innings with the Mets and Astros.  A case can certainly be made that Verlander has more to contribute if healthy, and the righty has already defied Father Time once by delivering that last Cy Young campaigns after a Tommy John surgery cost him virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons.

That said, nobody would be surprised if age and injuries simply caught up to Verlander, and 2023 was really his last hurrah as a productive starting pitcher.  As Brown noted, Verlander’s track record alone will lead to interest from multiple teams, but is understandable if the Astros were ready to move on rather than risk being left holding the bag if Verlander declined further.

Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Spencer Arrighetti are lined up as the top four of Houston’s rotation, and the in-house candidates for the fifth starter’s role all come with big health-related question marks.  Lance McCullers Jr. has missed the last two seasons due to injuries, Luis Garcia hasn’t pitched since May 2023 due to a Tommy John surgery and a couple of setbacks, J.P. France missed most of 2024 due to shoulder surgery, and Cristian Javier had a TJ surgery last June and isn’t guaranteed to pitch at all in 2025.  Adding a reliable veteran arm to the mix certainly makes sense for Houston, though Verlander might not fit the bill given his own health status.

It was a frustrating season for Justin Verlander but he doesn’t plan on it being his last. He told reporters, including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle, that he plans on pitching again in 2025. “I think I do feel like I have a lot more to give pitching-wise,” Verlander said. “This year was a tough year. Learned a lot from it.”

Verlander was only able to make 17 starts and log 90 1/3 innings this year. He started the year on the injured list due to some shoulder inflammation, though he was reinstated in the middle of April. After 10 starts with a 3.95 ERA and 21.3% strikeout rate, he went back on the IL due to neck discomfort, an injury that perhaps he never really recovered from. He was reinstated from the IL in August but opined last month that he may have returned too quickly. He reiterated that sentiment this week.

“I’ve talked to you guys about how I was feeling coming back and how I needed to push the issue a bit. Kind of a weird injury in the neck. Tried as best I could to get out there and be an asset to help this team in October but wasn’t able to do it.”

Verlander made seven more starts in August and September but his strikeout rate was just 14.6% in that time as he allowed 30 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings. That gave him an 8.10 ERA in that stretch and bumped his season-long ERA to 5.48, the highest of his career apart from a two-start debut back in 2005. With those poor results, the Astros decided to leave him off their postseason roster. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown started the club’s two games against the Tigers but Houston lost both, ending their season prior to the ALCS for the first time since 2016.

“Obviously, wasn’t pitching well enough to be a part of this series,” Verlander said. “But having an offseason to kind of get things right, I definitely feel like I want to continue to pitch and compete. And I’m not ready to step away yet.”

Despite the rough campaign, Verlander is determined to keep going, which isn’t surprising. Way back in 2018, he told Jon Morosi of MLB.com that he wanted to pitch until he was 45 if he could. He is still a few years away from that marker, as he is set to turn 42 in February.

Perhaps the health issues give him an explanation for his rough results, but increased injury woes are to be expected for a player pushing his career to great lengths. Keeping his body in a place where he can maximize his results will be a challenge but one that Verlander is surely going to tackle as best as he can.

It wasn’t too long ago that Verlander was still posting elite results. Though he missed most of 2020 and all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, he had an incredible bounce back in 2022. At the age of 39 and after missing almost two full years, he tossed 175 innings over 28 starts with a 1.75 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate.

He won that year’s American League Cy Young award and went into free agency on a strong note. He was able to secure a two-year deal with a $43.33MM annual salary from the Mets, as well as a conditional player option for 2025. The first year of the deal went fine for Verlander personally, though the Mets fell out of contention and dealt him back to Houston at the deadline. He finished 2023 with a 3.22 ERA over 27 starts, despite his strikeout rate falling to 21.5%.

As mentioned, the results backed up here in 2024. The injuries preventing him from unlocking the $35MM player option, as he needed to toss 140 innings this year but finished well short of that. That means he is slated to return to the open market in a few weeks.

He will naturally have significantly less earning power than he did two years ago, both on account of his increased age and worse platform season, but there should still be a notable deal for him out there. Zack Greinke got $8.5MM from the Royals for 2023, his age-39 season. He secured that on the heels of a 2022 campaign in which he tossed 137 innings with a 3.68 ERA but a 12.5% strikeout rate. Lance Lynn had an ERA of 5.73 in 2023 but was still able to secure an $11MM guarantee from the Cardinals for 2024, his age-37 season. Corey Kluber got a $10MM guarantee from the Red Sox for 2023, his age-37 season, despite plenty of notable health concerns in prior seasons.

Verlander is going into his age-42 season and will be older than all of those pitchers were when those deals were signed, but he also has a more impressive overall track record and plenty of recent success he can point to. For a closer age comparison, Rich Hill got $8MM from the Pirates going into 2023, his age-43 season. He got that after tossing 124 1/3 innings with a 4.27 ERA the year prior. That’s a better platform year than what Verlander is current taking to free agency but Hill’s overall résumé can’t match up to Verlander’s.

In short, there will be opportunities available to Verlander, the question will be where. He has spent most of his recent career with the Astros, with that brief stint with the Mets the notable exception. Perhaps he and the club will reunite again, as they could use some rotation help. As of now, their 2025 starting pitching group projects to include Valdez, Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. They could fill out that group with Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr. or J.P. France, though those pitchers are currently unknown quantities after missing most or all of 2024 while recovering from surgeries.

Per RosterResource, the Astros project to be have a spending gap of more than $100MM between 2024 and 2025, both in terms of pure payroll and their competitive balance tax number. However, that gap is actually narrower when considering the full picture. The arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz have the Astros slated to pay over $58MM to a group headlined by Valdez and Kyle Tucker. A couple of non-tenders will knock that down a bit, but the club also plans to discuss a significant contract with impending free agent Alex Bregman. They also have a hole at first base that will need to be addressed somehow.

Given that the club has traded for Verlander a couple of times and also re-signed him in free agency twice, it’s probably fair to expect that they will work something out regardless of where the budget goes in the months to come, though it’s also possible they decide it’s time to go in a different direction. Wherever he ends up, Verlander will be looking to add to a body of work that already has him as a lock for the Hall of Fame. He has 262 wins, the most among active pitchers, while his 3,416 strikeouts are 10th on the all-time list.