Cafardo On Morneau, Lincecum, Pence, Polanco
In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that he is surprised to see the Yankees still in the wild card hunt despite all of the chaos they have endured this season. The chaos he refers to, of course, mostly has to do with Alex Rodriguez. The silver lining there is that if they throw the book at A-Rod, then they'll be in position to add to the team via free agency. “The one thing the Yankees don’t have, they don’t have those guys in the minors that can come up and make an impact for them,” said an American League exec. “They won’t have that for a couple of years. So, if they’re going to do a Red Sox-type rebuild, they have a disadvantage. Where Boston has a number of pitchers and positional prospects ready to make an impact, the Yankees don’t. So, they still have to make their impact through free agency and possibly trades.” Here's more from today's column..
- The Twins believe they had enough interest in Justin Morneau that if he continues to hit well and shows power, he could be moved to a contender in a waiver deal. The Blue Jays might claim him but the Rays, Orioles, and Indians might also have some interest.
- Giants righty Tim Lincecum could be a big fish that goes in a waiver deal as some teams like him as a valuable bullpen piece down the stretch. The Giants weren’t offered anything good enough at the deadline, but given his $22MM salary and the fact he’s in the final year of his deal, the Giants may want to free themselves shortly.
- Giants outfielder Hunter Pence will be a free agent but he really wants to stay put and he has expressed that to GM Brian Sabean. However, Sabean told him that if something knocked their socks off they would move him — but nothing materialized. He could be another movable part during August, but the Giants plan to make him a qualifying offer and then try to re-sign him long term.
- Marlins third baseman Placido Polanco is 37 and isn't the strongest fielder, but he remains a possible target for teams such as the Red Sox and Yankees, who need a veteran presence and a guy who can still hit from the right side.
- Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman tried to get Michael Young and Carlos Ruiz from the Phillies. Though neither deal happened, they are both possibilities as waiver deals during the month of August. However, Cafardo notes that Ruiz might not make it past the NL teams in the waiver process.
- Royals right-hander Ervin Santana could theoretically be moved during the waiver period, but it looks like he’s in Kansas City to stay. As one GM said, “He might be the biggest target going in August. Doubt he gets too far, though.”
- When asking General Managers which former GM they miss the most, J.P. Ricciardi got the most responses. Many believe Ricciardi will be a GM again, whether it’s taking over for Sandy Alderson when he wants to step down with the Mets, or with another club. Cafardo runs down Ricciardi's highlights in Toronto and notes that he was working with the club when their wasn't money to work with.
Quick Hits: Deadline, Traded Prospects, Buyers/Sellers
After one of the slowest trade deadlines in recent history, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet spoke with 22 Major League executives (most of whom were GMs and assistant GMs) on whether or not they felt the deadline should be moved back. The idea behind a later trade deadline would be allowing fringe contenders a bit more time to assess their status, now that a second Wild Card has been implemented in each league. Of the 22 surveyed, 13 were in favor of moving the deadline back for various reasons. Here's more from around the league…
- Baseball America's Jim Callis ranked the Top 10 prospects who exchanged hands at this season's deadline, and Mike Olt, who is now property of the Cubs following the Matt Garza trade, headlines the list (subscription required).
- ESPN's Keith Law offers up his rationale for thinking that the Phillies, Brewers, Mets, Rockies and Mariners should have sold. He adds that the Royals, Pirates and Rangers should have been more aggressive buyers in the final days of this year's deadline (ESPN Insider required).
- Bud Norris went through the strange experience of being traded from the Astros to the Orioles while the two teams were playing each other, and MLB.com's Alyson Footer looks at other examples of this rarity.
AL Central Links: Tigers, Rzepczynski, Sox, Royals
The Twins demoted one top prospect today in favor of another, sending Aaron Hicks to Rochester and recalling Oswaldo Arcia to take his place. The moves came on the heels of another loss to the streaking Royals, who have snapped off nine consecutive wins and are 4.5 games back from a Wild Card spot. Here's more out of the AL Central…
- It's no coincidence that Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has a history of making significant moves at the trade deadline and a history of gettting his team to the postseason, writes Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. Knobler writes that the Tigers have long coveted the recently acquired Jose Iglesias, and Dombrowski's persistent inquiries made Detroit a natural fit for a third team when the Red Sox and White Sox initially struggled to make a Jake Peavy deal.
- Knobler also notes that Dombrowski tried many times to acquire Jurickson Profar from the Rangers with packages fronted by Avisail Garcia but came up empty.
- Indians GM Chris Antonetti was happy to acquire a left-handed reliever who has thrived against opposing lefties and also has postseason experience in Marc Rzepczynski, he told MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. The Tribe looked at many other ways to upgrade, but found the asking prices too high. Manager Terry Francona told Bastian that he merely rolled his eyes and said "Oh my goodness," at the alarming asking prices for players in which the Indians had interest.
- White Sox general manager Rick Hahn conceded to MLB.com's Scott Merkin that he nearly pulled off a last-minute deadline deal before the other team suddenly changed its asking price. Hahn said he received a text message 45 minutes prior to the deadline and spent the next 35 minutes or so working on the specifics, and it got to the point where he informed chairman Jerry Reinsdorf that it was close to happening. Hahn did not specify which player(s) were on the table.
- The Royals will be active players on the August trade/waiver market, writes Dick Kaegel of MLB.com. Kaegel spoke with GM Dayton Moore, who told him: "There are two months left to the baseball season and there's potentially the opportunity to improve our team. So we're going to continue to evaluate and look for ways to upgrade."
Prospect Rumor Roundup: Elite Shortstops
Is this the beginning of a new era for shortstops?
Four publications — Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus (subscription required), Keith Law at ESPN (subscription required), and FanGraphs (compiled by yours truly) — recently released their midseason Top 50 prospects lists. The rankings featured as many as eight elite shortstop prospects. That position is widely considered to be the most important (non-pitcher) spot on the baseball field and those potential star athletes are highly-sought-after commodities on the open market, through trades and via the draft.
Of those eight prospects featured on the four lists, five of the players are found in American League organizations, suggesting we may be soon entering another Era of the Shortstop, similar to what we experienced in the early 2000s with the likes of Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, and Miguel Tejada in the AL.
Let's have a closer look at those eight shortstop prospects…
1. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox: Bogaerts was the highest ranked shortstop on all four lists. Boston is clearly planning for the day that the Aruba native is ready to contribute at the big league level as they recently had him playing games at the hot corner — an area of weakness for the playoff hungry club. However, the recent trade of Jose Iglesias, as well as the pending free agency of veteran Stephen Drew, should provide a clear path to the Major League shortstop job for Bogaerts, who has more than held his own at the Triple-A level.
2. Francisco Lindor, Indians: Just 19, Cleveland's top shortstop prospect earned a mid-season promotion from High-A to Double-A after a strong showing both in the field and at the plate. Veteran incumbent Asdrubal Cabrera's uninspired 2013 season could help convince the front office that his time with the organization is coming to an end. Lindor, who is only in his third professional season, could be ready for the Majors by the middle of 2014. He could develop into a perennial Gold Glove winner at shortstop.
3. Carlos Correa, Astros: The first overall pick in the 2012 amateur draft, Correa has produced above-average offensive numbers in Low-A ball despite being just 18 years of age. The Puerto Rico native has shown a natural hitting ability, but he has yet to tap into his raw power. There are concerns that he'll eventually outgrow shortstop, but he should have the offensive chops to be an above-average player at just about any position on the field.
4. Javier Baez, Cubs: Baez has arguably the best raw power out of any player on this list, and he already has 27 home runs in 98 games this year. Like Lindor (a fellow 2011 first-round draft pick), he's already reached Double-A. Unlike the Indians prospect, though, his offensive game is raw. He has a very aggressive approach at the plate, which has resulted in just 29 walks with 111 strikeouts in 391 at-bats. As is the case with Correa, there has been some talk of moving Baez to third base. However, with fellow prospect Mike Olt (recently acquired from the Rangers) – a plus defender at the hot corner — that move doesn't make a ton of sense now. He could also move out to right field, but the Cubs organization features a lot of depth in that area. If and when everything clicks for Baez, though, Chicago will certainly find a spot for him.
5. Addison Russell, Athletics: Russell, a 2012 first-rounder, burst onto the prospect landscape in a big way last season. His strong play earned him an aggressive assignment to High-A ball to open the 2013 season despite being just 19 years old. He struggled in the first two months of the season but has posted an OPS near 1.000 during the past two months. Russell probably won't be ready until 2015, so current big league shortstop Jed Lowrie likely has one more season of job security before he finds himself at another position or on another club.
6. Alen Hanson, Pirates: The emergence of Jordy Mercer has added some middle infield stability at the big league level for the Pirates but he's not likely to be the long-term answer at shortstop. Hanson, 20, is the best in-house option to eventually take over the position — although his name has popped up more than a few times in recent trade rumors. After a strong showing in High-A ball, the Dominican native was recently promoted to Double-A. The switch-hitter has shown the ability to steal 20-30 bases with solid line-drive pop.
7. Raul Mondesi, Royals: Previously known as Adalberto Mondesi, this shortstop prospect is one of the youngest players in full-season ball, having just recently turned 18. His inexperience has shown in 2013, and he walked just four times in May and June. His raw ability is undeniable, though, and he's made adjustments with a strong month of July — including 13 walks and his highest monthly OPS of the year at .817.
8. Corey Seager, Dodgers: Seager — whose brother Kyle Seager plays for the Mariners — is perhaps the most underrated shortstop on this list. The teenager has enjoyed his time in the Midwest League, and he's been on fire over the summer months with an OPS approaching 1.000. He's also slugged eight of his 11 home runs in June and July. Like Correa, Seager is expected to outgrow shortstop but he's shown enough skill at the position to suggest he may be able to stick there for a few more years. He's likely at least two seasons away from reaching Los Angeles.
July Trade Recap: AL Central
Here's a look at the trades that went down involving AL Central teams in what proved to be a relatively quiet month of July…
Indians
- Acquired left-hander Marc Rzepczynski from the Cardinals in exchange for minor league infielder Juan Herrera.
Royals
- Acquired outfielder Justin Maxwell from the Astros in exchange for minor league right-hander Kyle Smith.
- Acquired outfielder Gorkys Hernandez from the Marlins in exchange for minor league third baseman Alex McClure
Twins
- Traded catcher Drew Butera to the Dodgers in exchange for a player to be named later.
Tigers
- Acquired right-hander Jose Veras from the Astros in exchange for minor league outfielder Danrys Vasquez and a player to be named later.
- Acquired shortstop Jose Iglesias from the Red Sox in a three-team trade that sent outfielder Avisail Garcia to the White Sox and right-hander Brayan Villarreal to the Red Sox.
White Sox
- Acquired minor league outfielder Brandon Jacobs from the Red Sox in exchange for left-hander Matt Thornton.
- Acquired outfielder Avisail Garcia from the Tigers and minor leaguers Francellis Montas, J.B. Wendelken and Cleuluis Rondon from the Red Sox in a three-team trade that sent Jake Peavy to Boston.
- Traded right-hander Jesse Crain to the Rays in exchange for future considerations contingent on Crain's health.
Synopsis
The Tigers and White Sox were the big players, making one of three-intra-division trades seen this July (though the Red Sox were involved as well). Detroit bolstered its bullpen at a relatively low cost, acquiring a solid arm in Veras rather than paying for a big name pitcher with a higher price tag. They safeguarded themselves against the Jhonny Peralta suspension that is likely on the horizon, landing Iglesias, who could turn into the game's best defender at short. The Tigers paid a steep price in moving Garcia, whom the White Sox surely are excited to bring to the organization. The White Sox received a trio of underwhelming prospects from Boston in the deal as well — a smaller return than most anticipated for Peavy — and their return on Crain's excellent season remains to be seen due to his injury.
The Royals found a nice platoon partner for David Lough in Maxwell, who has a career batting line of .253/.370/.455 against left-handed pitching. Smith is enjoying a nice season and has No. 3 starter upside, per Baseball America, so they had to part with someone of some significance to get him. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo ranks Smith 15th among Astros prospects on his newly updated Top 20 list. Hernandez was acquired for depth, though he could be a fourth outfielder based on his glove.
The Indians refused to cave in and meet San Francisco's demands for Javier Lopez (not surprising, considering reports that the Giants demanded Danny Salazar in return). Instead, they acquired Rzepczynski, who had been displaced in the Cards' system. Rzepczynski has always been tough on lefties, which was GM Chris Antonetti's main target at the deadline.
The Twins stood pat, save for an insignificant transaction at the last minute that doesn't impact their future much. Justin Morneau's slump and large contract dried up interest in the former MVP, and Josh Willingham's knee injury kept him off the block as well. The Twins neglected to cash in on bullpen chips Jared Burton, Casey Fien and Brian Duensing, and they never budged from their insistence that Glen Perkins was not available. All of those players are controlled for at least two more seasons, and the Twins clearly didn't run into an offer they felt a need to accept. Morneau and Willingham, in particular, remain August trade candidates.
Royals Acquire Justin Maxwell
The Royals have acquired Justin Maxwell from the Astros, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). The Astros receive minor league pitcher Kyle Smith, tweets Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star.
Maxwell, 29, can play all three outfield positions and is hitting .241/.311/.387 with a pair of homers and four steals in 151 plate appearances this season. He slugged 18 homers last season for Houston and has hit lefties at a .253/.370/.455 clip throughout his career. Maxwell is controllable through the 2016 season and will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason.
Smith, 20, has a 2.85 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 0.78 HR/9 this year in 104 1/3 High-A innings. Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked him 12th among Royals prospects, noting a No. 3 starter ceiling.
While many have speculated that the Royals should ultimately be sellers, the team certainly took a win-now approach this offseason in trading a prospect package highlighted by Wil Myers for James Shields and Wade Davis. They're riding a seven-game winning streak that has pushed them back above .500. Maxwell should be able to platoon with David Lough in right field and fill in around the outfield when needed.
Maxwell is the second significant piece to be moved by the Astros this week, as general manager Jeff Luhnow traded closer Jose Veras to the Tigers in exchange for outfield prospect Danry Vasquez and a PTBNL earlier this week.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Lee, A’s, Rays, Yankees
In reality, the Red Sox were a "non factor" for Cliff Lee before they landed Jake Peavy, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Will he get moved today to another club? Baseball people are highly doubtful anyone would meet the supposed Phillies' asking price of three top prospects for a pitcher who has $70MM left on his deal through 2015. "I don't know of a team in baseball that would [do] that. Taking on that much money and giving up three legit prospects seems like a stretch for anyone," one exec said. Here's more from around baseball as we approach the 3pm central deadline..
- The A's are still pursuing bullpen depth, tweets Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio and ESPN.
- Teams that have spoken with the Phillies say they're not upbeat about making any deals today, tweets ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. Michael Young is still in play, but there's no clear destination for the third baseman.
- The Cardinals are leaning towards standing pat at the deadline unless there is a last minute drastic change, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter).
- Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes that the Rays have been looking into at least one more potential deal, presumably to add a bat. Tampa Bay made a splash earlier this week when they landed Jesse Crain in a swap with the White Sox.
- The Yankees were mainly working on smaller acquisitions like Alberto Callaspo this week and didn't have any interest in Alex Rios once they landed Alfonso Soriano, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Callaspo wound up going from the Halos to the A's.
- The Marlins don't expect to do much today and plan to keep Chad Qualls, Justin Ruggiano, and other trade chips if they can't get good value in return, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
- Meanwhile, the Marlins are gauging interest in Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com.
- The Royals' search for a second baseman continues, but they don't appear to be close on anything at the moment, writes Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. “Anything’s possible,” one club official said. “We looking at a lot of things, but I doubt anything get done unless things change in the last few hours.”
- The Indians got the left-handed reliever they needed yesterday in Marc Rzepczynski and would still be open to a rotation upgrade, but they don't like the price so far, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com (via Twitter). For now, the Tribe is prepared to stand pat.
- There are a lot of present and veteran Braves who think the club is making a serious mistake by allowing Brian McCann hit the open market at the end of the season, writes Peter Gammons at GammonsDaily.com. "Only the people around the team understand what he means to that pitching staff. He’s a star player in the team concept,” said David Ross of McCann, who also leads the team with a .884 OPS.
- Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com spoke with Nationals players to get their take on the trade deadline. Scott Hairston and Adam LaRoche have both been involved in multiple deadline deals.
Royals Discussed Kendrick, Beckham, Weeks
3:50pm: The Royals are one of 12 teams to which Kendrick can block a trade, notes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
3:07pm: The Royals have had discussions about second basemen Howie Kendrick of the Angels, Gordon Beckham of the White Sox, and Rickie Weeks of the Brewers, according to Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. They also looked at the Phillies' Kevin Frandsen. However, Knobler says there is no indication the Royals are close to any deal.
The Royals have used Chris Getz, Elliot Johnson, Miguel Tejada, and Johnny Giavotella at second base this year, resulting in a .230/.279/.311 offensive line. They seek a second baseman they would control beyond 2013, says Knobler, and all of the players mentioned above are controlled through '15.
The Angels would need a front-line, Major League or MLB-ready starting pitcher for Kendrick or Erick Aybar, tweets Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times. As Knobler notes, Beckham presents the problem of playing within the Royals' division, while Weeks' salary is prohibitive compared to his production.
AL Central Notes: Tigers, Sale, Tribe, Royals
Much of the chatter from the AL Central has centered around Jake Peavy of the White Sox. You can catch up on Monday's Peavy rumors here, but there's still plenty of other trade talk surrounding the division. Here's the latest out of the AL Central with less than 48 hours until the trade deadline…
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post spoke with Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, who told Sherman that the club's acquisition of Jose Veras earlier today will likely be the lone move he makes prior to the deadline (Twitter link).
- Meanwhile, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets that the Tigers have maintained trade dialogue with the Giants, even after the Veras acquisition.
- The White Sox are still telling teams that ace Chris Sale is not available in trades, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter).
- MLB.com contributor Joel Hammond conducted a Q&A with Indians GM Chris Antonetti regarding the upcoming trade deadline. Antonetti conceded that the bullpen needs to get better at retiring left-handed batters and also discussed how changes in the newest CBA have impacted the summer trading process. Antonetti told Hammond that August might now represent a better opportunity to acquire players, as there will be more separation from bubble teams who aren't sure whether to buy or sell in July.
- Jeffrey Flanagan of FOX Sports Kansas City examines the roadblocks that would get in the way of the Royals acquiring Howie Kendrick or Erick Aybar from the Angels. Both members of the Halos' double-play tandem are reportedly on the market, and either could fill the Royals' gap at second base. However, the prospect price tag and salary implications are difficult to overcome, Flanagan notes.
- The Royals scouted the Twins in their recent series against the Mariners, according to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (Twitter link). Berardino doesn't list specific names, but remember that Twins GM Terry Ryan didn't mind dealing within the division last summer when he sent Francisco Liriano to the White Sox.
Why Aren’t There More Sellers This Year?
Major League Baseball should consider moving the non-waiver trade deadline to August 10 or August 15, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. The current trade market has many potential buyers and not many clear sellers, and the idea is that, by extending the trading period an extra two weeks, there will be greater clarity about which teams are out of the playoff hunt.
Whether or not Morosi's suggestion is the right idea, it does seem to be a response to a real phenomenon. At least three GMs of contending teams (the Cardinals' John Mozeliak, the Tigers' Dave Dombrowski, and the Indians' Chris Antonetti) have recently said that this year's market includes few sellers.
It's undoubtedly true that, if the deadline were extended, teams would have more information to make a decision about whether to buy or sell. But this year, at least, many teams appear to be basing their trade deadline behavior not on their realistic probability of making the playoffs, but on other factors.
There are five playoff spots for each league. According to Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report, four National League teams (the Cardinals, Braves, Pirates and Reds) have better than a 90% chance of making the playoffs, while the Dodgers have an 85.5% chance. The only other team above 10% is the Diamondbacks.
In the American League, four teams (the Rays, Tigers, Red Sox and Athletics) have at least a 90% chance of making the playoffs. Four other teams (the Rangers, Orioles, Indians and Yankees) have at least a 10% chance.
That makes 14 teams with a realistic shot at the playoffs, and 16 teams who are out of the race completely or would need to go on a serious tear to get back in it. And yet it's not as if there are 16 sellers. The Nationals (7.4%), Rockies (1.9%), Royals (1.8%), Mariners (0.5%), Mets (0.4%), and Blue Jays (0.2%) show few indications of becoming sellers in the traditional sense, while the Angels (1.4%), Giants (0.9%) and Phillies (0.8%) seem to be only now opening themselves to that possibility.
So why is the market so slow? Here are a few reasons.
- There are fewer players to deal. Mozeliak pointed out yesterday that as more young players sign long-term contracts, there are simply fewer talented players approaching free agency, and therefore fewer interesting players to trade.
- There are two Wild Cards now. The second Wild Card currently has no impact on the number of contenders in the National League — the Pirates and Reds have fairly strong grips on the two Wild Card spots, and both would be contenders even if there were only one Wild Card. In the American League, though, the Yankees would be 7 1/2 games out of the playoff race if it weren't for the second Wild Card, and the Rangers and Orioles probably wouldn't feel particularly good about their playoff chances, either. That might not change the number of sellers, but it would at least reduce the number of buyers.
- Players traded at midseason no longer come with draft-pick compensation. Teams used to be able to receive compensatory draft picks for players they acquired in midseason trades. Now, such players are not eligible to receive qualifying offers, so the teams that acquire them lose out on that extra bit of value.
- Buyers are increasingly reluctant to overpay. Many of this year's buyers are teams that must depend on their own young talent to contend. The Rays, for example, tend not to be big players at the trade deadline, because it's usually not in their interest to give up on prospects (and perhaps also because of financial reasons). The same can be said, this year, of at least the Pirates and Athletics. And even beyond the fact that this year's crop of contenders includes several small-payroll teams, most organizations are increasingly aware of the quantitative value of the moves they make, and midseason trades generally tend not to create many extra wins, as ESPN's Mike Petriello recently pointed out (Insider-only). Zack Greinke produced 1.4 WAR down the stretch for the Angels in 2012, and didn't pitch in a single postseason game for them — and the Angels gave up Jean Segura to get him. That's an outcome that should terrify contending teams.
- Bad teams simply have few players to trade. Teams that have poor records tend not to have many players performing well. This is true every year, of course, but this year, two teams that have shown a willingness to sell veterans and rebuild — the Marlins and Astros — have already largely done so, and have few talented veterans left to offer.
- This isn't fantasy baseball. As ESPN's Buster Olney recently pointed out (Insider-only), becoming a seller essentially means telling your fans the season is over. A team's baseball interests might dictate that it should sell, but its business interests might dictate otherwise. This year, this idea might apply to the Phillies (who have an aging core), Royals (who are currently .500, and who have had one winning season in the past 19 years), Blue Jays (who invested heavily in the 2013 season last winter) and Mets (who are planning to dramatically raise their payroll next year).
For some teams, several of these factors are in play. For example, Jeff Sullivan of U.S.S. Mariner recently showed that the Mariners, who are 50-55, simply aren't likely to improve themselves much at the deadline. Most of their better players, like Kyle Seager and Felix Hernandez, are younger (and Hernandez, after signing an extension, is under team control for the foreseeable future). Of their veterans, Kendrys Morales isn't a great fit for most of the playoff contenders, Raul Ibanez is a 41-year-old defensive liability, Michael Morse is also poor defensively and hasn't played since June (although he's about to return), and the M's have Hisashi Iwakuma signed to a cheap contract through 2015. The result is that they don't have many players other teams would want and that they should be motivated to deal. There's reliever Oliver Perez and perhaps Morse, and that's about it. If the Mariners were to go on a trading spree, they likely would not get much back in return, and so it may, in fact, be better for them to mostly sit tight, even though they aren't contending, and allow their fans to enjoy the last two months of the season.
The result of the current market is that there are only a handful of teams who are motivated to sell, and those don't have much a contender would be motivated to buy, particularly now that the Cubs have already completed several trades. Whether or not this is a problem that ought to be fixed is debatable, but let's assume that it is. Moving the deadline to mid-August might increase trade activity to a degree, but not primarily because the playoff races will be clearer by then. Rather, it's because the baseball-vs.-business problem Olney mentions will be less of an issue. From a business perspective, it's easier for a team to throw in the towel with six weeks left in the season than with eight weeks left. Moving the deadline to August would help teams on the fringes of contention maintain fan interest for two more weeks of the summer, allowing them to trade off their popular veterans for young talent in August, right before the start of the football season. Regardless of the exact date of the deadline, though, the number of teams that look, on paper, like sellers will probably be larger than the number of teams that are actually motivated to sell.