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Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Bullpens

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We’ve gone over how the five worst offenses and rotations of last season now look with the offseason nearing completion. We’ll do the same here with the quintet of bullpens that had the most difficulty preventing runs in 2019. Judging a bullpen just by ERA is an admittedly crude method, though each of the relief units in question here also posted subpar fielding-independent metrics. The bottom line is that they struggled. Let’s see how they stack up now…

Baltimore Orioles (5.79 ERA/5.38 FIP; current depth chart)

  • No surprise to see the Orioles at the bottom, considering the rebuilding outfit’s myriad difficulties last season. The Orioles didn’t get particularly impressive production from any of their relievers. Even their No. 1 option, Mychal Givens, had trouble at times, though he did strike out better than 12 batters per nine. Givens is on track to open the season with the Orioles, but he could certainly be an in-season trade candidate. If they move him, it would further weaken a bullpen that hasn’t added anyone of note this offseason.

Washington Nationals (5.68 ERA/4.94 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Nationals proved last season that you can have a bottom-of-the-barrel bullpen from a statistical standpoint and still win the World Series. However, general manager Mike Rizzo’s in-season tinkering with the group proved effective, especially the acquisition of flamethrowing closer Daniel Hudson at the trade deadline. Hudson remains in the fold, having re-signed in free agency for two years and $11MM. In an even bigger move, the Nationals signed Will Harris – a former Astro whom they upended in the Fall Classic – to a three-year, $24MM pact. With those two and the returning Sean Doolittle, Washington appears to be in nice shape late in games, but it’ll need more from Hunter Strickland, Roenis Elias, Wander Suero and Tanner Rainey.

Colorado Rockies (5.18 ERA/5.12 FIP; current depth chart)

  • There were few oft-used bright spots last season in Colorado’s bullpen, which didn’t get much from anyone but Scott Oberg and Carlos Estevez. The good news is that it’s hard to imagine Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee pitching much worse in 2020 than they did last season. And even if they do, they’re all entering the final guaranteed season of their onerous contracts, so they shouldn’t be the Rockies’ problem for much longer. In the meantime, the Rockies are going to need bounce-back efforts from them because they haven’t meaningfully addressed their late-game setup this offseason.

Kansas City Royals (5.07 ERA/4.55 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Kansas City’s another team that has been quiet in the past few months, despite its less-than-stellar output a year ago. There are a couple bullpen trade candidates on hand in Ian Kennedy and Tim Hill, arguably the Royals’ two best relievers, but nothing has materialized on those fronts thus far. Kennedy was terrific last season in his first year as a reliever, though the fact that he’s due $16.5MM in 2020 has likely scared off interested teams.

New York Mets (4.99 ERA/4.71 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Mets were extremely busy in trying to repair their bullpen last offseason, when they traded for ex-Mariners star Edwin Diaz and signed Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson. The latter pitched well during an injury-shortened campaign, but Diaz and Familia fell off a cliff, which is why the Mets are on this list a year later. At least in Diaz’s case, though, it would be reasonable to expect a much better performance in 2020. He struck out over 15 batters per nine and maintained his 97 mph velocity last year, after all, and isn’t going to surrender home runs on 27 percent of fly balls again this season. Regardless of how he does, the Mets have added some notable support to their relief unit in the past several weeks. They signed former Yankee Dellin Betances, one of the elite relievers in recent memory (albeit one coming off an injury-ruined year), as well as the accomplished Brad Brach. They also have the newly signed Michael Wacha as a potential long relief option, not to mention holdovers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman.

Royals, Alex Gordon “Getting Close” To Deal

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The Royals are “getting close” to a one-year agreement with outfielder Alex Gordon, according to Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. The financial details of said agreement are yet unknown. Nothing has been finalized yet, but Flanagan expects that an announcement might come in the next couple of days upon the completion of Gordon’s physical.

It’s long been expected that Gordon and the Royals would work out a deal to keep the 35-year-old in the organization with which he’s spent his entire career; Gordon has made it clear that he would opt for retirement if a return to Kansas City wasn’t possible. However, it looks as if the franchise icon will stick around for at least one more year.

Don’t expect Gordon’s earnings in 2020 to drive the Royals’ payroll through the roof. It’s clear he’s no longer the player he was when he was awarded with a contract that would’ve paid him $23MM this year had the Royals exercised his option. So, speculatively, $5MM or so seems like an agreeable price point for the two sides.

Either way, Gordon showed some signs of revitalization at the plate in 2019, especially early in the season. Overall, he managed his best offensive season since 2015 while remaining a reliable defensive presence in his native left field. He collected his seventh career Gold Glove Award for his efforts, and the Royals will surely expect more of the same next year, even at his advanced age.

Before confirmation that Gordon would be returning, the Royals were looking at a projected outfield trio of Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier (who will shift to right field with the signing of third baseman Maikel Franco), and Brett Phillips, the latter of whom is himself a defensive virtuoso but one who has mustered just a .620 OPS in his first three big league seasons.

Former Royals’ Owner David Glass Passes Away

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The Royals announced today that David Glass, who owned the franchise from 2000 to 2019, passed away last week at the age of 85.

“Mr. Glass loved this game, this team, and our city with all his heart,” GM Dayton Moore said in a statement. “He cared deeply for our fans and for the future of baseball. But above all, Mr. Glass placed an emphasis on putting family first which is what he stressed to our entire organization. We are forever grateful for his humble and supportive leadership, and we are beyond blessed that we were a part of his incredible life. Our thoughts and prayers are with his very special family.”

Glass hired Moore in 2006. That move paid dividends when the club won back-to-back AL pennants in 2014 and 2015. During the latter season, the club won its first World Series since 1985. Glass agreed to sell the franchise to current owner John Sherman last August, a move that was officially ratified in November.

We at MLBTR join those around the game in expressing our condolences to Glass’ family and to the Royals’ organization for their loss.

Managers, Top Front Office Execs On Expiring Contracts

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Monday was one of the most stunning days baseball has seen in recent memory. Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow and A.J. Hinch, who oversaw several contending teams in Houston and led the club to a World Series championship, lost their jobs as a result of a sign-stealing scandal. Before accusations against the Astros arose several weeks ago, neither Luhnow nor Hinch looked likely to leave their posts for the foreseeable future. Now, though, the Astros are the lone team in baseball that doesn’t have a clear answer at either spot (though the Red Sox could join the Astros soon if the league drops the hammer on manager Alex Cora). But what about after the 2020 season? Which clubs could be in need then?

With help from the ever-valuable Cot’s Baseball Contracts, let’s take a look at clubs whose GMs and/or managers are entering contract years. As a reminder, this list might not be complete or fully accurate. Some teams may have extended their lame-duck executives/skippers and not publicized those moves yet, for instance, while other individuals in those spots could have less job security than it appears.

Angels: Entering the 2016 season, the Angels hired general manager Billy Eppler to helm a franchise led by all-world center fielder Mike Trout. As was the case then, Trout remains on a collision course with a Cooperstown plaque. The problem is that the Angels have continually failed to take advantage of his presence. Since Eppler came aboard, they haven’t even posted a .500 season. They’re also on their third manager (Mike Scioscia, whom Eppler inherited, then Brad Ausmus and now Joe Maddon) since their GM assumed the reins. Eppler has been rather aggressive this offseason as he works on a turnaround, though, having signed third baseman Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $235MM contract, picked up catcher Jason Castro and added starters Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy. The acquisition of a much-needed front-line rotation piece this winter has eluded Eppler, who will perhaps keep trying to land one before the season. Regardless, it appears to be put up-or-shut up time for Eppler. Should the Angels fail to make significant progress in the upcoming campaign, it seems likely they’ll have a new GM a year from now.

Blue Jays: The partnership consisting of president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins has been going on since before 2016. The Blue Jays were then on the cusp of their second straight ALCS-bound season, but they’ve since launched a rebuild and endured three consecutive losing campaigns. Shapiro’s now going into the final season of his contract, though he and the organization are willing to discuss an extension, while Atkins’ status is a bit less clear. Atkins signed an extension last June, but it’s unknown whether it will go beyond the coming season. One thing’s for sure, however: This has been a busy offseason for Shapiro and Atkins, as the Jays have acquired four pitchers (Hyun-Jin Ryu, who cost the team an $80MM commitment, as well as Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Shun Yamaguchi) and infielder Travis Shaw.

Braves: The two-year extension Snitker inked in 2018 has a team option for 2021, in which he and the Braves will go for their third straight NL East title. Snitker, who took over as interim manager in 2016, endured a couple losing seasons before his recent run of success and has not been able to secure a playoff series win thus far. The overall results have been good, however, so it stands to reason the Braves will exercise Snitker’s option if they have another playoff-caliber season.

Nationals: The extension the Nationals gave GM Mike Rizzo a couple years back reportedly lasts through 2020, while manager Dave Martinez has a club option for ’21. Back when the Nats re-upped Rizzo, they were known as a talented team that couldn’t break through in the fall. That finally happened in 2019, the year the franchise finally took home its first World Series. Thanks in part to that triumph, it would be a stunner to see the Nats allow Rizzo or Martinez to get away anytime soon.

Royals: Like Rizzo, it doesn’t seem Moore’s in any danger of exiting his current organization. Moore, KC’s GM since 2006, has only overseen two playoff teams, but the Royals sure made those seasons count. They won the AL pennant in 2015 and then the World Series the next year. They’re now amid a rebuild and coming off two 100-loss seasons, and are likely in for another lean year. Still, new owner John Sherman is reportedly set to hand Moore an extension to keep him atop the franchise’s baseball hierarchy.

Tigers: GM Al Avila seems to be safe, at least from a contractual standpoint, but the rebuilding Tigers could go in another direction in the dugout soon. Veteran skipper Ron Gardenhire’s not signed beyond then, and there doesn’t appear to be any hurry on the team’s part to change that. While Gardenhire enjoyed plenty of success with the division-rival Twins from 2002-14, he signed off for a difficult job in Detroit. The club, which hasn’t had much talent throughout Gardenhire’s reign, has gone 111-212 on his two-season watch. The Tigers have somewhat beefed up their roster this winter, though, and that should give Gardenhire a legit chance to help lead the team to a better output than its 47-win mark in 2019. Detroit has redone the right side of its infield by signing first baseman C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop, improved at catcher by adding Austin Romine and landed innings-eater Ivan Nova for their rotation. Nothing splashy there, but Gardenhire’s probably happy to have those vets aboard after he had to guide such a sorry roster a season ago.

Yankees: This is the last guaranteed year of Boone’s contract, though his deal does include a club option for 2021. At this rate, the Yankees will exercise it, as Boone has made an almost seamless transition from the broadcast booth to the dugout. He has two 100-win seasons in as many attempts, has helped the Yankees to an ALCS, and nearly won AL Manager of the Year honors during an injury-laden 2019 for the club. Expectations will be even higher this season, though, considering Boone now has ace Gerrit Cole at the front of his rotation.

Alex Gordon, Royals Discussing New Deal

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The Royals and longtime franchise cornerstone Alex Gordon are in talks to orchestrate a new deal this week that will keep Gordon in Kansas City, according to Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com (via Twitter). MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that it’s “hard to imagine” Gordon doesn’t return for another season. 2020 would be his age-36 season.

An estimate of the price point isn’t yet known, though it’s safe to say any new deal (likely a one-year pact) will pay Gordon a good bit less than the $23MM he would’ve taken home had his 2020 option been exercised. He’s already collected a $4MM buyout after the Royals declined their end of the mutual option.

There’s no doubt that Gordon is no longer the player he was at the time that contract extension was signed. Still, he graded out as a net positive for the 2019 Royals, and his .741 OPS was his highest mark since 2015. He earned yet another Gold Glove award—his third straight and the seventh of his career—and was one of just a few veterans on an otherwise youthful Royals club. And with a new manager heading the clubhouse in 2020, Gordon could be an especially valuable presence as Mike Matheny acclimates to his new situation.

Gordon has made it known that he will only continue his career in the Royals uniform that he has worn for his entire career, which began in 2005 when he was Kansas City’s first-round draft choice. The only remaining question was whether Gordon would retire after playing the 2019 season at age 35. At this point, it appears retirement is off the table. And with mutual interest between the two sides, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be. Despite some promising young Major Leaguers and a burgeoning farm system, the Royals still look to be a few years away from genuine contention, so bringing Gordon back at little cost can hardly hurt their situation.

Royals Announce Changes To Baseball Ops

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  • The Royals announced a number of changes to their baseball ops department on Friday, mostly in the form of new hires and promotions (Nick Kappel of Royal Rundown provides the full list). Notables include Rustin Sveum, son of Dale, promoted to minor league video coordinator, former Tampa Bay Ray Damon Hollins returned for an 11th season in Kansas City as the Coordinator of Outfield, Base Running, and Bunting, and the famously high-stockinged Jason Simontacchi named Pitching Coordinator after two years assisting the role.

Royals Remain Interested In Jorge Soler Extension

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The Royals and outfielder Jorge Soler avoided arbitration Friday, agreeing to a $7.3MM salary for 2020. That doesn’t preclude the club from signing Soler to a contract extension, though, and general manager Dayton Moore suggested there’s interest in locking up the soon-to-be 28-year-old slugger for the foreseeable future (via Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com). “Just because we exchange numbers doesn’t mean we can’t eventually do a multiyear deal,” Moore told Flanagan. “There’s no deadline on that.” Moore added that new owner John Sherman “has been extremely supportive in our vision to sign our young players to long-term deals.” Soler, a much-ballyhooed prospect when he signed with the Cubs out of Cuba in 2012, truly came into his own last season during a 48-home run campaign. And the Royals have Soler’s rights through 2021, so there’s still plenty of time for the two sides to work out a long-term arrangement. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored a potential extension for Soler back in September.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
  • The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
  • The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
  • Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ’Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
  • Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
  • The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.

Earlier Settlements

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Checking In On Last Season’s Lowest-Scoring Offenses

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If you can believe it, sub-.500 teams comprised the majors’ five lowest-scoring offenses in 2019. With the offseason a couple months old and with most of the top free agents off the board, those teams have all had time to improve at the plate. But have they? Let’s take a look…

Detroit Tigers (582 runs, 77 wRC+)

  • Among Tigers regulars, only outfielder Nicholas Castellanos (whom they traded to the Cubs in July) and fellow outfielder Victor Reyes posted league average or better numbers last season. But the non-contending club has at least made an effort to upgrade its offense this winter. The Tigers have signed first baseman C.J. Cron and second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who were members of the division-rival Twins last year, as well as ex-Yankees catcher Austin Romine. None of those players will strike fear in the hearts of the opposition, but they’re respectable contributors who should be vast improvements over the hitters the Tigers ran out in those spots in 2019.

Miami Marlins (615 runs, 79 wRC+)

  • Like the Tigers, the Marlins have made a legitimate effort to get better this offseason. They’ve remade a good portion of their infield, where first baseman Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar (who could play a super-utility role in 2020) are now aboard. Miami has also grabbed outfielder Corey Dickerson, who was the most productive offensive player of the trio last season. And former Pirates catcher Francisco Cervelli, who was highly valuable in 2018 before concussions helped stall his career in 2019, is in the mix as a backup to Jorge Alfaro. The Marlins should still be a sub-.500 club in the upcoming season, but at least they’ve put in some work to step up on offense.

San Francisco Giants (678 runs, 83 wRC+)

  • Aside from letting go of center fielder Kevin Pillar and deciding not to re-sign catcher Stephen Vogt or third baseman Pablo Sandoval, this has been a quiet offensive offseason for the Giants. Their projected lineup for 2020 includes nothing but familiar faces from last year. So, unless the likes of Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria and Brandon Crawford channel their younger selves next season, it could be another lean showing for the Giants.

San Diego Padres (682 runs, 88 wRC+)

  • As far as spending on hitters goes, the Padres were one of the active teams in the game during the previous two offseasons. They added first baseman Eric Hosmer on an eight-year, $144MM guarantee two winters ago and third baseman Manny Machado on a 10-year, $300MM pact less than a year back. Neither decision has worked out all that well for the team thus far, and now it has taken a more modest approach. But that’s not to say the Padres have been silent. They picked up high-OBP outfielder Tommy Pham from the Rays, young OFer Trent Grisham from the Brewers and second baseman Jurickson Profar from the Athletics in separate trades. Pham’s the lone member of the trio who inspires much confidence at the plate, but the Padres are banking on all three to help them break a long playoff drought in 2020. And if the team has its druthers, it’ll find a taker via trade for outfielder Wil Myers, but his albatross contract (three years, $60MM) could prevent that from happening.

Kansas City Royals (691 runs, 84 wRC+)

  • The Royals, who lost 207 games from 2018-19, have done little to nothing at the plate this offseason. Third baseman Maikel Franco, who failed to live up to the hype in Philadelphia, joined KC on an affordable contract. There hasn’t been much otherwise, though, and the Royals continue to await left fielder Alex Gordon’s decision on whether to retire. Even if Gordon sticks around, he hasn’t been a legit threat at the plate since 2015. Maybe catcher Sal Perez will provide an impact bat after sitting out all of 2019 because of Tommy John surgery?

Quick Hits: NC Dinos, Rucinski, Royals, Orioles, Holt

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The NC Dinos of the Korean Baseball Organization have brought back pitcher Drew Rucinski on a one-year, $1MM deal with a $200K signing bonus, per Dan Kurtz of myKBO.net (via Twitter). The team also announced the deal on their twitter account. Rucinski, who turns 31 on Monday, last played in the states for the Marlins in 2018, putting up a 4.33 ERA/3.81 FIP across 32 appearances out of the pen. For the Dinos in 2019, he threw 177 1/3 innings of 3.05 ERA baseball, striking out 119 batters to 49 walks. On a slow news day, chew on these quick hits from the AL…

  • The Royals are not shy about how they value the versatility of players like Whit Merrifield and Hunter Dozier. Their recent signing of Maikel Franco attempts to take advantage of said versatility, with Dozier planned to move to right field to make room for the former Phillie, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. Merrifield, meanwhile, is likely to lead off and play centerfield. The Royals have attempted to lengthen their lineup this offseason, and while it’s not the most daunting group, Kansas City expects better years out of Franco, Nicky Lopez, and Ryan O’Hearn, who all struggled mightily in 2019. Improvement is a low bar for this trio, and unless they make significant strides, it’s hard to imagine the Royals making much noise in the American League.
  • The Orioles made some additions to their coaching staff while shifting around a good chunk of the incumbent staff. Chris Holt, however, has taken on an entirely new role in the organization as the new Director of Pitching, per MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Holt was formerly the minor league pitching coordinator after defecting from Houston, but his new role will allow him the freedom to assist pitching coach Doug Brocail in implementing much of the data that accompanied GM Mike Elias to the organization. Holt will continue to spend much of his time with the minor leagues, but his new role will allow him to see his development projects through all the way to the bigs.
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