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Rangers Notes: Rendon Offer, Lyles

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The Rangers were in on free agent Anthony Rendon to the tune of $32MM per year for six years, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. The total 6-year, $192MM package landed a year and $53MM short of the winning bid. Heyman points out that the lack of an income tax in Texas put the dollar value of the Rangers’ offer more-or-less in-line with the contract Rendon ultimately signed. The extra year made the difference for both player and team in this case. Rendon will turn 37-years-old in June of his seventh contract year with the Angels.

Though they’ve yet to land a big bat (and reportedly will not push to sign Josh Donaldson), the Rangers have made strides to improve their rotation with the additions of Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. While reliable rotation arms don’t equate to a star signing like Rendon, for the Rangers, they are critical additions. Of course, part of this gambit assumes Lyles pitches more like he did in Milwaukee (2.45 ERA) and less like he did in Pittsburgh (5.36 ERA).

The sky is the ceiling when pitchers switch teams nowadays, however, as the reworking of arsenals and usage patterns has rapidly become the norm. For Lyles, much of the improvement his experienced in Milwaukee can be attributed to moving from a sinker to a four-seamer and swapping out a slider for a curveball, per Evan Grant of the Dallas News. The Rangers also see Lyles as a sort of developmental descendent of Lance Lynn, who made a similar switch to a four-seamer in Texas. The Rangers believe Lynn will be a positive influence for Lyles as he tries to perform with more consistency.

For his part, Lyles credits the urgency of a playoff push and his chemistry with catcher Yasmani Grandal as a driving factor of his late-season success. The Rangers’ catching situation is far from settled, with Jeff Mathis the closest defensive equivalent to Grandal in terms of pedigree. It will be an uphill battle for the Rangers’ to put themselves in the playoff race, though Gibson and Lyles raising the floor of the rotation goes a long way to fixing the issues of 2019. Still, the Astros, A’s, and Angels are all pushing for contention, while the Mariners are gearing up for a push in 2021.

Blue Jays Notes: Ryu, Roark, Gibson, Gausman

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Free agent left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu “is emerging as one of the Blue Jays’ prime targets” in the team’s wide-ranging search for pitching, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes.  With other major pitchers like Stephen Strasburg and Zack Wheeler already off the board, however, the Jays will face a lot of competition to land Ryu, particularly from teams that come up short on signing Gerrit Cole or Madison Bumgarner.  Should the Dodgers fail to sign Cole, Davidi notes, Los Angeles would seem like a prime candidate to pursue re-signing a known quantity in Ryu — indeed, we’ve already heard reports that the Dodgers have Ryu in their sights.

“Right now, the Blue Jays seem determined to not block themselves out of a possible run at Ryu by doing something else,” Davidi writes in a separate piece.  Aside from the acquisition of Chase Anderson from the Brewers, however, the Jays haven’t done much to upgrade a rotation that was the team’s chief offseason priority.  It could be that the Jays’ deliberate methods of pursuing and evaluating every possible arm on the market are leaving them behind other teams who make a more direct push for a specific pitcher at the top of their list.  In the view of one agent, talks with the Blue Jays “are 90 per cent due diligence that doesn’t go anywhere.”

To this end, Davidi wonders if the Jays are really willing to spend “outside their comfort zone” to sign Ryu if he is their top choice, since if not, missing out on Ryu could also in Toronto missing out on several other pitchers who could sign elsewhere in the interim.  For instance, Davidi notes that “one path the Blue Jays are particularly keen on” would see Ryu and Tanner Roark both sign with the Jays, after the Dodgers leave the Ryu sweepstakes due to a Cole signing.  If this is the case, I’d argue there’s no reason the Jays couldn’t go out of their way to sign Roark now, as he wouldn’t require nearly the price tag of the top pitchers on the free agent market.  (MLBTR projected Roark for a two-year, $18MM deal, and in fact predicted he’d end up signing with the Jays.)  Toronto is nowhere near any kind of payroll crunch, given the team’s lack of financial commitments both in 2020 and in future seasons.

That said, the Blue Jays have done more than just talk, as the club made multiple contract offers to Kyle Gibson, as manager Charlie Montoyo told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters.  The right-hander ended up going to the Rangers on a three-year, $28MM deal.  “You hate to lose guys like Gibson.  I was there when we made the offers and they were pretty good offers, just somebody else made a better offer,” Montoyo said.

Kevin Gausman is another free agent hurler who doesn’t appear to be coming to Toronto.  Davidi reports that the Jays had interest in the recently non-tendered righty, but Gausman is likely going to sign elsewhere this week.

Winter Meetings Preview: Rangers, Rockies

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In advance of the winter meetings, let’s take a moment to quickly preview a couple teams out west…

  • The Texas Rangers have their sights laser-focused on Anthony Rendon, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Recent additions have more-or-less locked their rotation class, with Kolby Allard, Joe Palumbo and Brock Burke looking like the 5 through 7 options behind Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. Should prices drop on starters like Dallas Keuchel or Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Rangers could add further pitching in the right deal and potentially explore flipping Lynn or Minor, tweets Grant, though that’s less a strategy and more of the “open to anything” ethos employed by most front offices. Otherwise, the group of internal candidates, if expanded, would include Taylor Hearn and Tyler Phillips, plus any vets they are able to grab on minor league deals in the mold of Edinson Volquez (though Volquez himself is more likely ticketed for the pen if he makes the team). The Rangers reportedly offered Zack Wheeler a $100MM contract before he signed with Philadelphia, so the pursestrings have been loosed. For now, however, they’re stuck in traffic waiting to see if the “Adrian Beltre treatment” can sell Rendon on playing the latter half of his career in Arlington. 
  • The Colorado Rockies need for starting pitching is clear, but they are highly unlikely to walk away from the winter meetings with a new arm atop their rotation, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Irrespective of the financial crunch – which is significant and detailed in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook – the history of Coors Field continues to scare away free agent pitchers. Not to mention, the haunted past of big-ticket hurlers signed by past regimes in Colorado is no less an impediment to building through free agency. Denny Neagle, Mike Hampton, and Darryl Kile can all profess their tale of woe, but Kile’s case is particularly damning given the success he enjoyed in St. Louis once freed from Coors. Speculatively speaking, the Rockies aversion/inability to add frontline pitching via free agency could be a factor in their bearish resistance to trading Jon Gray. If internal development is the only path to roster improvement, trading a talent like Gray would be an even greater white-flag move than under most circumstances.

Rangers Sign Kyle Gibson

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Dec. 6: The Rangers have announced the deal. Their 40-man roster is up to 39 players.

Dec. 5: The official price tag is $28MM in guaranteed money over three years, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links) with $3MM more available to Gibson in incentives.  The front-loaded deal will pay Gibson $11MM in 2020, $10MM in 2021, and $7MM in 2022.

Nov. 27: The Rangers are poised to make their first big addition of the winter, as they’ve reportedly agreed to a three-year, $30MM pact with free-agent right-hander Kyle Gibson. The agreement is pending completion of a physical. Gibson is a client of Rowley Sports Management.

Assuming the physical checks out, the agreement represents an important early marker on the market for starters. There’s a bevy of hurlers and quite a few teams working on matches at the outset of free agency. Gibson ranked 19th on MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents.

The reported three-year, $30MM term hews closely to the model that the Texas organization has adopted with Mike Minor and Lance Lynn in recent offseasons: identify an upside starter and pay a slight premium in terms of years in order to lure him into the fold. The total outlay doesn’t represent a large-scale risk for a team with the Rangers’ payroll track record — particularly with a new stadium in the offing in 2020. That said, Gibson isn’t exactly a sure bet to break out in the same manner as Minor and Lynn have in Arlington.

At 32 years of age, Gibson is older than many first-time free-agent pitchers — and not because he signed a contract extension that delayed his path to the open market. Injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery, delayed the former Mizzou star and first-round pick’s path to the big leagues. He didn’t dbut until he was on the cusp of his 26th birthday and didn’t pitch a full season in the Majors until he was indeed 26.

Gibson showed real promise with a strong full season of work in 2015 before turning in matching 5.07 ERAs in both 2016 and 2017. He turned the corner in 2018, when he ran up a 3.62 ERA over 196 2/3 innings. His 2019 results are disappointing by comparison. After a late lull, he finished with a 4.84 ERA in 160 frames. Those results, it should be noted, can in some ways be attributed to recent health troubles — though none involving his arm. Rather, Gibson lost roughly 25 pounds last winter due to a bout of e-coli, and he was never fully able to put the weight back on and build up to full strength. Late in the season, he missed time due to further gastrointestinal issues when he diagnosed with ulcerative colitis.

All that said, it’s worth drilling down beneath the surface-level numbers with Gibson even more so than with most free agents. The lanky 6’6″ righty struck out exactly one hitter for every inning he pitched and posted a career-high 13.1% swinging-strike rate in 2019, and he carried a characteristically strong 51.4% ground-ball rate.

Gibson has also taken a major step forward with his slider in recent seasons; what was already an above-average pitch for much of his career generated a career-best 26.7 percent swinging-strike rate over the past two years. Gibson’s changeup, too, has been an outstanding offering at times and has generated a near-60 percent grounder rate dating back to Opening Day 2018. Combined with a fastball that has averaged 93.6 mph over the past two seasons, Gibson is armed with a quality three-pitch mix — even if his four-seamer isn’ta swing-and-miss offering at all.

The big question from a performance standpoint is the long ball. Gibson has always been a bit prone to coughing up dingers when hitters manage to put the ball in the air. Last year, he allowed home runs on 20.4 percent of the balls put in the air against him and served up an average of 1.29 big flies per nine innings pitched. He’s also never had particularly strong command of the strike zone, evidenced by a career 3.2 BB/9 mark (identical to his season-long total in 2019).

At a minimum, it seems reasonable to hope that Gibson will settle in as a steady and durable back-of-the-rotation arm — just the sort of piece the Rangers so badly need. That outcome would make this investment something of an overpay, but it’s also easy to see how better health could bring about a Minor/Lynn-esque breakout for Gibson and make his contract look like a similarly savvy bargain pickup for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and his staff.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that the two sides were closing in on a deal (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that a deal was in place (via Twitter). Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reported the contract terms (via Twitter).

Twins Rumors: Ryu, Rotation, Cron, Gibson

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The Twins, in need of rotation upgrades, have been in touch with agent Scott Boras about left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North reports in his latest podcast (audio link, Twins talk beginning at 25:10 mark). It’s hardly surprising, as Minnesota figures to gauge the prices of virtually every top starter available, but the connection is nevertheless of some note. La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune also links the Twins to Ryu, and he adds that manager Rocco Baldelli and pitching coach Wes Johnson have been involved in the early recruiting process for the team’s top pitching targets. The general goal of those efforts is to help paint a picture of the culture the Twins try to foster and the means by which they feel they can help pitchers improve. “Making sure that people are comfortable and are going to a place with the right people they want to be with and they want to work with,” Baldelli said of the process. “…I enjoy talking with guys. Some of them end up Twins and some of them don’t. All of those conversations are worthwhile in every way.”

Some more notes out of the Twin Cities…

  • Also within his podcast, Wolfson adds that there’s some internal trepidation about paying first baseman C.J. Cron at the $7.7MM rate projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. They’ll have until 8pm ET tonight to tender Cron a contract, and it’s possible that they could try to bring him back at a lower rate. But the Twins have also continued to discuss the possibility of moving Miguel Sano from third base to first base, which would free up the possibility of acquiring a third baseman either via free agency (e.g. Josh Donaldson, Todd Frazier) or trade. If the Twins part ways with Cron, they’d be at $48.9MM in guaranteed contracts plus another $41.1MM in projected arbitration salaries and pre-arbitration contracts. That rough $90MM sum is well shy of the $130MM record payroll with which they opened the 2018 season, and the team’s 2019 attendance rose by nearly 250,000 over the 2017 season that preceded that record level of spending.
  • Longtime Twins righty Kyle Gibson will embark on the next chapter of his career with the Rangers after agreeing to a three-year, $30MM deal last Wednesday. The former first-round pick apparently bet on himself in 2019, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter) that Minnesota had tried to sign Gibson to a two-year pact worth $17MM a year ago. Gibson, however, spurned what would’ve been the first multi-year guarantee of his career and came out ahead as a result. He ultimately earned $8.125MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility and will take that home on top of the additional $30MM he’ll be guaranteed with Texas once his deal is formally announced.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Kyle Gibson Deal

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Wednesday’s reported agreement between Kyle Gibson and the Rangers to a three-year, $30MM deal will likely not go down as the most impactful free agent deal signed by a starting pitcher this offseason. Due to an assortment of early-career injuries, Gibson reached free agency relatively late, at 32 years of age, with the additional misfortune of doing so in the shadow of names like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Zack Wheeler. While Gibson might not represent the flashiest name to find a new uniform this winter, his Texas signing represented part of an apparently ongoing talent acquisition strategy in Arlington.

As noted by our own Jeff Todd and Steve Adams, Gibson’s deal fit the mold of the organization’s recent signings of pitchers like Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. Those deals have worked out swimmingly for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, with Minor and Lynn fronting a 2019 staff that helped lead Texas to a surprisingly solid 78-84 finish in 2019. Minor’s own spotty track record of health allowed Daniels to secure his services for a three-year, $28MM commitment prior to 2018; Lynn, fresh off of a disappointing 2018 following several years of solid performance, inked a three-year, $30MM accord with Texas prior to last season. In 2019, those economical signings provided Texas with a combined 418.2 innings of 3.63 ERA pitching.

Not one of these pitchers could be called a true reclamation project. Like Lynn and Minor, Gibson comes to the Dallas area with a few warts on his health report, some inconsistencies in performance, and a few flaws in his statistical profile; he also arrives with a fairly solid body of cumulative work and a few reasons to believe his best pitching may be yet ahead of him. While his early career Tommy John procedure goes a long way toward explaining his late entry to the free agency portal, Gibson’s made 25 or more starts in every season since 2014. Not every campaign has been brilliant, with an ERA exceeding 5.00 between 2016 and 2017, but the big righty was a sub-4.00 ERA starter in 2015 and 2018, while this past season saw him record career bests in K/9 and K/BB ratios (due, perhaps, to some measurable improvements in his repertoire). The Mizzou product won’t be confused with an ace, but he’s accumulated 5.2 fWAR over the past two seasons and could be called the archetype of a “back-of-the-rotation” arm. Meanwhile, Texas will roll out Gibson, Minor, and Lynn for a combined annual commitment of roughly $31MM next season–perhaps less than it will cost an acquiring team for one yearly serving of Cole.

Detractors of the deal, however, will point to a serving of Cole as having been an entirely realistic holiday season wish. After showing a willingness to sport a $160MM-plus Opening Day payroll in 2017, Texas ownership has since pared down OD payrolls bit-by-bit; 2020’s opening payroll, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, is projected to fall at roughly $110MM as presently constructed. The Rangers, as you may have heard, are moving into a new ballpark in 2020, raising fanbase expectations in regard to on-field product. And as for that new stadium? Daniels will have to hope that Gibson can keep the ball within its confines, as the hurler’s 20.4% HR/FB rate from last season does not bode well for a pitcher performing in the dry Texas heat. If Gibson performs the way Minor and Lynn have as Rangers, this deal will look like another reasonable move in a market where reason can oftentimes lose out; if his struggles with the long ball lead to another up-and-down season, fans will likely wonder why the club didn’t aim higher in its search for starting pitching.

In your opinion, is the Gibson signing a shrewd continuation of a tried-and-true Texas trend or an underwhelming half-measure in light of 2020 expectations? (Poll link for app users)


East Rumors: Jays, Yanks, Andujar, Mets, Thor

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The Blue Jays had interest in right-hander Jake Odorizzi before he came off the market by accepting the Twins’ qualifying offer Thursday. Now that Odorizzi’s out of the picture for Toronto, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet lists several free-agent starters who remain on the team’s radar. They have some level of interest in Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Tanner Roark, Michael Pineda, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello and Dallas Keuchel, according to Davidi. Of course, some of those names are more realistic than others for the rebuilding Blue Jays, whose inability to pry Odorizzi from Minnesota “shows their restraint from previous winters remains strong and steady,” Davidi argues. On the other hand, though, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet has heard from multiple agents who, in discussing their clients with the Jays early this offseason, “have noticed a change in tone compared to years past.” One thing appears certain: The team’s casting a wide net as it seeks much-needed rotation help.

  • Yankees third baseman Miguel Andujar was an offensive standout as a rookie in 2018, but a shoulder injury dragged down his production this year and ended his season in mid-May. However, according to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, Andujar’s adverse 2019 hasn’t diminished teams’ enthusiasm for the 24-year-old. “I’m definitely getting a lot of interest in Miguel Andujar,” Cashman revealed to Michael Kay and Don La Greca of 98.7 FM ESPN New York (audio link). That doesn’t mean the Yankees will trade Andujar, though the defensively challenged slugger has at least temporarily lost his hold on third. Cashman suggested Gio Urshela, who posted an out-of-nowhere breakout season as Andujar’s replacement, is the favorite to continue as the Yankees’ top option at the hot corner. With that in mind, the Yankees are at least considering trying to make Andujar a multi-positional player – someone who can also line up at first and/or in the outfield. Whether or not that comes to fruition, Cashman continues to regard Andujar as “an exciting young talent.”
  • Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen said at the beginning of October that the club’s not going to trade right-hander Noah Syndergaard this offseason. A month and a half later, Van Wagenen hasn’t changed his mind. Teams have called about Syndergaard, but Van Wagenen has rebuffed them, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. The Mets, if they plan to contend in 2020, don’t seem to be in position to trade Syndergaard. After all, they’re already likely to lose one of their best starters in Zack Wheeler. And Syndergaard’s projected to make an affordable salary ($9.9MM) next year, which is crucial for a New York team that appears to lack financial flexibility.
  • Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier has been popular in trade speculation for years, though the club has held on to him despite a logjam in the grass. Could the Yankees finally part with Frazier this winter? Ken Davidoff of the New York Post discusses Frazier’s trade value with multiple anonymous executives, who unsurprisingly opine that the 25-year-old’s appeal has dipped somewhat. Defense has been a problem for Frazier, who spent a good portion of 2019 in the minors working to improve in that area. He did, however, collect a career-high 246 MLB plate appearances in 2019 and bat an adequate .267/.317/.489 with 12 home runs. Cashman admitted Frazier “took a step backwards” in 2019, though the exec’s encouraged that Frazier has “already proven he can play in New York.”

Kyle Gibson Drawing Early Interest

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Free agent right-hander Kyle Gibson is drawing solid early interest, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). As many as ten teams have inquired on Gibson in the early stages of free agency, per the report, though it remains to be seen if that’s a reflection of bargain hunting or a budding bidding war.

It’s hardly surprising to hear that multiple teams are intrigued by the former Twins hurler. Over the past two seasons, Gibson emerged as a mid-rotation starter, logging 356.1 innings with a 4.16 ERA with solid strikeout (22.8%) and walk (8.8%) rates. The sinkerballer Gibson has long posted strong ground ball rates as well, and that’s continued even as he’s increased his strikeouts the past two years. As Heyman notes, Gibson’s 2019 season was shaping up as a solid platform effort before a bout with ulcerative colitis coincided with a significant downturn in production in August and September.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR predicted Gibson would land a two year, $18MM deal with the Cubs. Chicago makes sense as a destination, although virtually every team in baseball could look to add staring pitching in some manner this offseason so the market is wide open. Already 32 years old, Gibson certainly won’t approach the earning power of the market’s top options. That said, he’s a reliable source of innings who would fit into numerous teams’ rotations.

It remains to be seen how a complicated rotation market will sort itself out. It’s generally promising that Gibson has received his share of early contact, but clubs are no doubt looking at quite a few options and hoping to maximize their dollars. There are quite a few starers bunched up in the middle of the market on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents.

Some organizations would surely prefer Gibson’s durability and consistency to younger but higher-risk options on the market, like Michael Wacha and Alex Wood. It’s arguable that Gibson has much of the floor of and more ceiling than the steady Rick Porcello, for example. Perhaps some teams will even see some real upside in Gibson, particularly if they believe he can manage his stomach troubles and thrive. If so, he could be one of the arms to break out with some early bidding pressure, though we’ve yet to see any indication whether that’ll be the case.

Twins Select Ronald Torreyes

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The Twins have selected the contract of infielder Ronald Torreyes. Also heading onto the active roster is righty Kyle Gibson, who was activated from the injured list.

Torreyes will come up to help fill in for some missing pieces. He’ll take the 40-man spot vacated when outfielder Byron Buxton was placed on the 60-day injured list.

This’ll be the first time that Torreyes has appeared in the big leagues this season after seeing action in each of the past four campaigns. He’s a .281/.310/.375 lifetime hitter in the majors. In 330 plate appearances this year at Triple-A, he has turned in only a .256/.289/.406 batting line.

Twins Place Kyle Gibson On Injured List

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The Twins announced today they’ve placed right-hander Kyle Gibson on the 10-day injured list with ulcerative colitis. Rookie left-hander Lewis Thorpe is up from Triple-A Rochester in addition to a long list of previously-announced September call-ups.

It’s unexpected and unfortunate news for Gibson, who has continued to look the part of a solid mid-rotation starter for Minnesota this year. Gibson’s 4.58 ERA is almost a run higher than the 3.62 mark he pitched to in 2018, but his peripherals pegged him as a low-4.00’s ERA talent in each season. Gibson’s never been a huge strikeout artist, but his 22% strikeout rate this season is a career-best, as is his 7% walk rate.

There’s no indication yet that Gibson’s condition will affect him long-term, although there’s evidently no hope of an immediate return. With rosters expanding in September, there would have been little harm in keeping Gibson active if the organization believed whatsoever he could return in fewer than ten days.

If the absence were to knock Gibson out for an extended period of time, it’d be a tough blow for player and team alike. The 31 year-old looks like a fringe qualifying offer candidate as he prepares to enter free agency for the first time, so this news could at least give interested suitors pause. Minnesota, meanwhile, is holding a strong (but not insurmountable) 4.5 game advantage in the AL Central. Even if they do hold onto the division title, they’ll need all the pitching they can get as they prepare for a first-round matchup with the Astros or Yankees.

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