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Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Marlins, Tribe, Tigers, Mets, Yanks, Astros

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With the trade deadline drawing nearer, FanRag’s Jon Heyman lists 70 players who could end up on the block over the next two months. Heyman ranks the players in order of name value and includes the likes of Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Josh Donaldson and Ryan Braun near the top of the list. Check out the full piece for an in-depth look at which stars and role players might switch uniforms this summer.

Now the latest from Heyman’s American League and National League notes columns:

  • Prior to the season, Royals impending free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer shot down a report that he was seeking a 10-year deal. But there’s still a belief within the organization that he will request something close to a decadelong pact in the coming months, per Heyman, who adds that Hosmer is the soon-to-be free agent the Royals most want to keep. However, Kansas City hasn’t made a serious offer to Hosmer on account of what could be a lofty asking price, and the team expects the 27-year-old to reach free agency. Fellow longtime Royals Mike Moustakas (third base), Lorenzo Cain (center field) and Alcides Escobar (shortstop) are also likely to hit the market in the offseason. Moustakas is the Royals’ biggest priority after Hosmer, suggests Heyman, while they seem resigned to the idea that Cain will find a larger payday elsewhere. Escobar, the weakest player of the four, could re-sign if the price is right. At one point, he was seeking $10MM per year, but his cost has come down thanks to his dreadful offensive start (.174/.203/.228 in 196 plate appearances). Meanwhile, right-hander Ian Kennedy probably won’t opt out of the remaining three years and $49MM left on his contract, Heyman writes.
  • Alex Rodriguez could still factor into the Marlins’ next ownership group if the faction including Tagg Romney, Tom Glavine and Dave Stewart lands the franchise. Given A-Rod’s controversial past, the Romney team is keeping him “at arm’s length” for now; even if they weren’t, Rodriguez isn’t allowed to be part of an ownership group as long as he’s still collecting a salary from the Yankees. The 41-year-old’s contract with the Bombers expires at season’s end. His former teammate Derek Jeter, who’s vying with Jeb Bush and against Romney & Co. to purchase the Marlins, isn’t planning to invest much money, says Heyman. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported Saturday that Bush and Jeter are leading the race to acquire the franchise.
  • Heyman reported in April that the Indians would look to extend first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana, but discussions between the two sides still haven’t taken place. They might not occur, either, as Heyman relays that Santana is likely to hit free agency at season’s end. At .219/.321/.390 in 215 PAs, the 31-year-old hasn’t carried his typically above-average production into this season so far, but he continues to exhibit quality plate discipline with 27 walks against 31 strikeouts. Santana’s walk rate has dropped in each season since 2014, however, and is now at a career-low 12.6 percent.
  • When the offseason rolls around, odds are that Tigers left fielder Justin Upton will not opt out of the remaining four years and $88MM left on his deal, reports Heyman. “Not happening,” one rival general manager said of a potential opt-out. Upton hasn’t lived up to his lucrative contract in his year-plus in Detroit, putting him on track to take the bird-in-the-hand approach.
  • It appears first baseman Lucas Duda is in his final season with the Mets, as Heyman implies that he’s primed to sign elsewhere over the winter. The 31-year-old power hitter has been among the Mets’ top players this season, having slashed .267/.406/.570 with six home runs in 106 PAs, but they do have a well-regarded youngster behind him in Dominic Smith. Baseball America sees Smith, 21, as the game’s 65th-best prospect.
  • Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez is making $557,900 this year, according to Heyman, who reported in March that the backstop had agreed to a salary worth more than the minimum of $535K.
  • Add the Astros to the list of teams interested in Cuban shortstop prospect Jose Israel Garcia, who recently became a free agent. The Astros have already exceeded their pool allotment for the 2016-17 international free agent class, which could indicate that they’re looking to sign the 19-year-old Garcia before the period ends June 15.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Lorenzo Cain

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It’s tempting to look in on pending free agents when they are clearly trending up or down. Sometimes, though, the news is mixed, and that’s the case for Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain.

Cain, 31, emerged as a force in 2014 and fully broke out in the following season. Helping to drive the Royals to a World Series title, Cain slashed .307/.361/.477 with 16 home runs and 28 steals. With top-end grades on his glovework and overall baserunning, he ended the ’15 campaign with 6.4 fWAR and 7.2 rWAR on the ledger.

May 6, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) reacts after hitting a double against the Cleveland Indians during the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Then came an injury-plagued 2016 campaign. Cain and K.C. came crashing back to earth. His power dipped back below league average (.121 isolated slugging) while his ailing hamstring perhaps contributed to slight dips in the field and on the bases. With one more year of arb control to go, that set the stage for a critical 2017 season.

So far, there are signs both of progress and of continued concern. Cain has been in the lineup and has certainly been a quality performer, but he’s lagging again in the power department. Through 183 plate appearances, he has managed only a pair of long balls and carries a meager .101 ISO that rates 19th from the bottom among qualifying hitters. While his batted-ball mix remains at typical levels, and he’s producing a roughly league-average exit velocity, Cain has made soft contact at a 24.8% rate, representing a substantial increase over that peak 2015 campaign (13.8%). Conversely, his hard-hit rate has dipped from 32.2% that year to 26.4% in 2017.

On the positive side, Cain’s walk rate has jumped all the way to 12.0% — a significant boost over his 6.6% career average. He has been more selective and made more frequent contact than in recent years, and if his BABIP (.315) moves back toward his lifetime mark (.343) there’ll be an added boost in the on-base department. Cain is already getting aboard at the same clip (.361) that he did in that excellent 2015 effort. And while there are less extra bases coming from his bat, Cain is back to taking them with his legs. He has already swiped a dozen bags, already nearing last year’s output of 14, and is again grading out as one of the game’s best baserunners.

Cain’s baserunning exploits could be seen as a sign of improved health and continued athleticism. And the same holds true in the field, where he has already compiled five defensive runs saved and 4.2 runs by measure of UZR through 381 1/3 innings — putting him on pace to approach his best seasons in the majors.

What we’re seeing, then, is that Cain continues to deliver a strong baseline of performance even without the pop. If he can begin driving and elevating the ball once more, then the ceiling will surely head northward — both for his anticipated on-field contributions and his potential earnings in the coming winter. The same holds of Cain’s trade value over the summer, when he could well be the best-available outfielder on the market.

Cain’s appeal in free agency will surely be limited by his age — he’ll turn 32 just after the start of his next deal. And the track record of big paydays for glove-first outfielders is limited. It seems a bit of a stretch to imagine him reaching five guaranteed years. Teammate Alex Gordon only got four at the same age, and players like Curtis Granderson, Angel Pagan, and Nick Markakis have all failed to find a fifth year. But it’s perhaps equally difficult to imagine him landing only three, barring an injury like that suffered by Denard Span before he hit the open market.

Ultimately, the question of earnings may hinge upon whether some of that missing power comes back over the summer. Cain’s two closest comps are instructive. If you view him as primarily a speed-and-defense asset, then you could argue that he’ll likely be looking to build off of the somewhat-out-of-date, four-year, $48MM Michael Bourn contract. Bourn was actually significantly younger than Cain will be when he signed that contract, and was coming off of quite a strong season, though of course he couldn’t match Cain’s track record of hitting.

If Cain can rediscover his power stroke, though, then there’d be a good argument that he should match or exceed the $16.5MM average annual value achieved by Dexter Fowler this past winter. (Fowler achieved that AAV over five years, but he’s the same age as Cain and hit the market a season earlier.) After all, Cain was the better all-around player at their respective peaks. And, if he is indeed traded this summer, he’d hit the open market without the same qualifying-offer burden that impacted both Bourn and Fowler.

Indeed, it’s even possible that Cain could challenge for Gordon’s deal ($72MM over four years) if he really turns it on in the second half and the supply-and-demand calculus ends up being favorable. A glance at the still-developing market shows that Cain’s top competition might come from players like Carlos Gomez, Jarrod Dyson, and Jon Jay. With several big-budget organizations potentially in need of a center fielder this winter, there’s some upside left for Cain to pursue over the next 117 games.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Royals, D-backs, Brewers

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The Mets have not resumed contract extension talks with second baseman Neil Walker, and it’s doubtful they will before the offseason, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link). New York would rather enter the winter with flexibility at various positions than commit to Walker, with whom it discussed a three-year deal in the $40MM range before tabling talks in February. Walker, 31, is on a $17.2MM salary after accepting a qualifying offer last fall, and has returned from a season-ending back injury in 2016 to post a decent .255/.327/.423 line in 168 plate appearances this year.

More from Rosenthal:

  • Center fielder Lorenzo Cain might end up as the Royals’ most valuable trade asset in the coming months, posits Rosenthal, who relays that the team isn’t convinced first baseman Eric Hosmer would bring back a “sufficient return.” Hosmer’s hitting a solid .299/.362/.408 in 174 PAs, but that’s not great production relative to his position, and first base typically isn’t an in-demand area around the deadline, notes Rosenthal. The same goes for third base, which could make it difficult for the Royals to move Mike Moustakas – another of their high-profile impending free agents – for a sizable return. Meanwhile, pitchers Jason Vargas, Kelvin Herrera and Mike Minor are also names to watch as the Royals potentially prepare to sell.
  • With a 25-18 record and a plus-43 run differential, the Diamondbacks don’t look like sellers in the making, admits Rosenthal. Nevertheless, the D-backs are going to have to replenish their barren farm system at some point, says Rosenthal, who reports they’re likely to entertain offers for center fielder A.J. Pollock and left-hander Patrick Corbin prior to the trade deadline and/or in the offseason. Both players are only signed for another year, putting their futures in question.
  • As is the case with Arizona, Milwaukee has easily outperformed expectations thus far. The Brewers entered Saturday having posted the same record as Arizona (25-18, with a plus-34 run differential), and their success is a “potential nightmare” for general manager David Stearns, one executive told Rosenthal. It’s doubtful Stearns believes the franchise’s rebuild is complete, yet owner Mark Attanasio might push to add, not subtract, if Milwaukee hangs around the playoff race in the coming months, per Rosenthal. To their credit, the first-place Brewers currently rank among the majors’ top 10 teams in runs scored (second), wRC+ (eighth) and pitching fWAR (eighth).

Cafardo’s Latest: Jones, Alcides, Cain, Devers, Dickerson

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Adam Jones hit the 10-and-5 service time threshold this past week, as Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe mentions in his weekly notes column.  Once a player achieves his 10-and-5 rights (ten full seasons in the majors, the last five with the same team), he earns full no-trade protection for the rest of his career.  This may be something of a moot point in Jones’ case since his current Orioles contract already contains a no-trade clause, though reaching the 10-and-5 milestone is a noteworthy achievement for any player.  Ryan Braun will be the next player to achieve 10-and-5 rights (on May 14), which carries more hot stove importance given that Braun has been at the center of several trade rumors; Braun’s contract already has a 23-team no-trade clause, and he’ll get full veto power of any deal once he becomes a 10-and-5 player.

Here’s more from Cafardo’s latest column…

  • The Royals are “likely” to re-sign shortstop Alcides Escobar.  The veteran shortstop is a free agent after this season and is off to a very rough start in his walk year, with just a .486 OPS over 104 plate appearances.  While Escobar has always been a below-average hitter, he has provided good value in the past as a baserunner and defender, though advanced metrics are somewhat split on his glovework (he is a plus defender per UZR/150 but has minus-11 Defensive Runs Saved from 2014-16).  It seems unusual that the Royals would be set on bringing Escobar back given his struggles, the fact that it is quite early in the season and the presence of Raul Mondesi Jr. as the team’s potential shortstop of the future.  With Mondesi himself still unproven at the plate, however, the Royals could see Escobar as a bridge player on an inexpensive contract, potentially no longer than one guaranteed year.
  • Speaking of Royals free agents, the team has scouts looking at various farm systems preparing for potential deals of Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer.  “The prevailing thought is the Royals can move Cain the easiest, but he’s the one they’d most like to keep,” Cafardo writes.
  • The Red Sox seemingly aren’t interested in trading Rafael Devers, both due to his top prospect status and Boston’s questionable third base situation.  The Sox have already dealt quite a few notable prospects in recent trades, making Cafardo wonder if the club is willing to give up even more minor league talent to acquire a pitcher like Jose Quintana.  Devers has often been earmarked as Boston’s third baseman of the future, though since he is tearing it up at Double-A, one wonders if we could potentially see Devers at Fenway Park as a late-season callup, a la Andrew Benintendi and Yoan Moncada last season.
  • Corey Dickerson’s first season with the Rays was a disappointment, but he is off to a terrific start in 2017, hitting .318/.365/.570 with six homers over 116 PA.  “It took him a year to get used to the American League and not hitting at Coors Field,”  an AL coach tells Cafardo.  “Everyone knew he could hit anywhere and now he’s gotten used to a new team and a new league, knows the pitchers better, and you’re seeing his talent come out.”

NL East Notes: Nats, Syndergaard, Marlins

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Following the loss of Adam Eaton for what could be the remainder of the season, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan touched on the possibility of a Royals/Nationals trade in his latest Ten Degrees column. The Nationals, according to Passan, expressed interest in Lorenzo Cain this offseason before they acquired Eaton in the first place. While the two sides obviously didn’t line up on a deal at the time, Passan notes that the combination of Cain and closer Kelvin Herrera, whom FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tied to the Nationals over the weekend, could present the Nats with the ability to fill two needs with one trade. While multiple reports have suggested that the Royals aren’t yet ready to sell, Passan notes that Kansas City’s 7-15 record and -37 run differential are both the worst marks in baseball, which means that even a strong performance in May might not be enough to turn their season around entirely.

A bit more from the NL East…

  • Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News spoke to a pair of sports orthopedists about the partial tear of Noah Syndergaard’s right lat muscle, discussing the ways in which it can be treated and the potential absence Syndergaard could face. While all of those factors are dependent on the severity of the tear, neither medical expert suggested that surgery was likely. Ackert offers quotes from both Dr. Anthony Maddalo and Dr. Kenneth Mautner (the latter of whom is a team physician with the Braves), with each going into detail on the nature of lat injuries. While a platelet-rich plasma injection isn’t a standard treatment for a torn lat muscle, both said it could theoretically help accelerate the healing process. Rest, rehab and stretching were also suggested as possibilities, with a program along those lines taking potentially up to six weeks, Ackert notes. There’s still no official word on a timeline from the Mets, though Sandy Alderson will address reporters at 4pm ET.
  • Syndergaard’s injury is obviously a severe problem for the Mets, but Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports opines that the injury is symbolic of a greater problem for baseball as a whole. The increased emphasis on velocity continues to put pitchers at risk, Rosenthal suggests, as young arms focus more on overpowering hitters than prioritizing durability. Rosenthal spoke extensively with Hall of Famer and current broadcaster John Smoltz on the matter. “(In the past), each pitcher was given the opportunity to learn what kind of pitcher they were going to be,” said Smoltz. “Now they’re all robots. … We’re getting dangerously close to every pitcher red-lining when he doesn’t really have to. They’re not preparing to learn how to pitch like it’s a six-gear car. They’re always in sixth gear. Never in fourth or fifth.”
  • Marlins skipper Don Mattingly spoke to Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun Sentinel about the importance of right-hander Jose Urena and lefty Jarlin Garcia to his bullpen. Mattingly suggested that even after Urena was roughed up in his most recent appearance on Friday, the righty has been vital in terms of keeping other relievers fresh (a point that righty David Phelps also emphasized to Healey). Asked if Urena could be a starting pitcher in the long run, as he was in the minors, Mattingly wouldn’t commit to a role for a long-term role for the 25-year-old. As for Garcia, Mattingly offered plenty of praise on the 24-year-old rookie, who made his MLB debut last month. “I think he thinks he’s ready to be here,” said Mattingly, “and that’s always really important for the younger guys. They believe that they can pitch here. Sometimes that takes a little while, gut Jarlin seems to think he belongs here.” Mattingly noted that having multiple southpaws would be preferable, though as Healey notes, the front office emphasized overall effectiveness over handedness this winter.

Cafardo’s Latest: Beane, Marlins, Royals, Upton, Las Vegas

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Here are the highlights of the latest from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:

  • 15 years after rejecting an offer from the Red Sox that would have made him the highest-paid GM in the game, the Athletics’ Billy Beane says he doesn’t regret staying in Oakland. “It turned out pretty well for the Red Sox and I have had a great run here and have enjoyed it here a great deal,” says Beane, citing a desire to be closer to his family as one reason he stayed. The Red Sox, of course, instead hired Theo Epstein, who led them to their first two World Series since 1918.
  • The Marlins feel they’ve made a significant upgrade in replacing hitting coach Barry Bonds with Mike Pagliarulo. Bonds obviously knew how to hit, as Cafardo notes, but “communicating it and devoting himself to it became an issue.” Pagliarulo has been proactive about developing plans for Marlins hitters. The Giants, meanwhile, hired Bonds as a special advisor.
  • Melvin Upton Jr. might not remain a free agent for long, Cafardo writes. Upton hit poorly in his brief stint with the Blue Jays, but had previously revived his career in San Diego, and there’s hope he can once again turn things around. “You just never know when you get him on the uptick and that feeling is what teams are going to look for when they need an outfielder,” says one American League evaluator. The Padres are paying most of Upton’s remaining salary, so he’ll be a cheap addition for his next team.
  • The Royals began their season by getting swept by the Twins and will have to perform well in the next few months, or else the team could move quickly to deal free-agents-to-be like Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain. Jason Hammel and Ian Kennedy could also hit the market if the Royals were to struggle.
  • The city of Las Vegas “really wants” an MLB team, particularly after landing an NFL team in the Raiders, Cafardo writes. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has previously expressed interest in Las Vegas as an MLB market.

Quick Hits: Royals, Rebuilds, Quentin, Payrolls

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The Royals are pushing to contend in 2017 but if the team is out of the race in July, GM Dayton Moore has told outside executives that impending free agents Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar will all be available, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports.  Moore stopped short of completely confirming this report, though he did tell Sherman that “we would have to consider it [a fire sale] if things do not go right.”  2017 has long been seen as the last year of the Royals’ run of contention with this core group, though the team is considering pursuing a reunion with at least one or two of the quartet this winter once they hit free agency.  As the Yankees did with Aroldis Chapman last season, K.C. could deal several of their free agents to reload on prospects or MLB-ready talent and then try to re-sign one or more of the traded players back onto the roster.  Sherman figures the Mets will keep tabs on Cain and/or Moustakas given their uncertainty in center field and third base.

Here’s some more from around baseball…

  • There’s no set timetable for when a rebuilding team should start trying to compete again, as C. Trent Rosencrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer hears from several general managers who have either led their teams through rebuilds or are currently within the process of building for the future.  The Cubs’ blueprint for rebuilding seems to have worked perfectly, though GM Jed Hoyer noted that the team’s decision to spend on veteran talent following an 89-loss season in 2014 was made in part because too much losing would’ve been detrimental.  “We were very concerned about a losing culture and bringing up our young players.  If you bring your players up in a culture that accepts losing, at some point it’s going to have a negative impact on those guys,” Hoyer said.
  • Now that he is finally healthy, Carlos Quentin felt he owed it to himself to give baseball one more shot, the veteran outfielder tells Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.  “I didn’t want to look back five years from now and say, ’I should have just picked up the phone and made a call and swallowed my ego and pride and done it the right way,’ ” Quentin said.  The Red Sox signed Quentin to a minor league deal this winter, and at age 34 and having not appeared in a big league game since July 26, 2014, Quentin is comfortable with the fact that he faces a long road to crack Boston’s deep roster.
  • The Dodgers have the more “dead money” on their payroll than any other team in baseball, Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards observes.  Los Angeles has $47.4MM committed to players who are not on their 40-man roster (whether they’ve been traded, released or are still in the organization but just not on the 40-man) this season.  The Padres ($35.1MM), Yankees ($26.5MM), Angels ($22.4MM) and Red Sox ($22.3MM) round out the top five, though San Diego is by far the leader in terms of dead money as a percentage of overall payroll.  A whopping 54.8% of the Padres’ 2017 payroll is going towards players who are no longer on the team’s 40-man roster — Melvin Upton Jr., James Shields, Hector Olivera and Jedd Gyorko.

Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Cain, Russell, Bryant, Sanchez

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Here’s the latest from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman…

  • The Royals don’t appear to be in extension talks with any of their pending free agents (Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas), Heyman reports, and with no progress, all four are expected to reach free agency after the season.  K.C. hasn’t given up on the idea of re-signing “one or two” of the quartet, with Hosmer seemingly their top priority.  If Hosmer can’t be re-signed, the Royals would then try to bring back “a couple of the others, at least in theory.”
  • Cain reportedly asked for a six-year deal at some point in talks, though there haven’t been any recent discussions between Cain and the Royals.  Cain will be the oldest of the four free agents (he turns 31 in April) and is coming off an injury-plagued season that saw him limited to 103 games due to hamstring and wrist problems.
  • Despite Cain’s rough 2016 season, some sources close to the center fielder “express surprise he’s even still” with the Royals.  Previous reports over the winter linked Cain to such clubs as the Rangers, Mets, Dodgers and Cardinals in trade rumors, and Heyman adds that the Rockies and Nationals also spoke to Kansas City about Cain’s services.  Washington, of course, went on to acquire a younger and more controllable outfield addition in Adam Eaton at a very significant prospect cost.  Colorado’s interest in Cain is rather unusual given that the Rockies were already overloaded with outfielders (Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl and Gerardo Parra) even before signing Ian Desmond and converting him to first base.  Depending on when the talks between Colorado and K.C. took place, the Rockies could’ve considered acquiring Cain and then perhaps converting Gonzalez to first base, rather than signing Desmond.  Blackmon and Gonzalez were also the subject of several trade rumors this winter, so the Rockies could’ve been looking at Cain as a replacement if they’d moved one of their internal pieces.
  • The Cubs and Addison Russell agreed to a one-year, $644K deal for the 2017 season, Heyman reports in a separate piece.  (For specifics on the pre-arbitration process, check out these MLBTR posts from Zach Links in 2014 and Jeff Todd in 2015, respectively.)  The agreement gives Russell a nice bump above the $535K minimum salary, a year before he becomes eligible for salary arbitration.  Russell hit .238/.321/.417 with 21 homers over 598 PA for the World Series champs last season, a below-average offensive performance as per the wRC+ metric (95) that was more than made up for on defense — Russell posted 19 Defensive Runs Saved and a +14.3 UZR/150 over 1262 2/3 innings at shortstop last season.
  • The Cubs are still in talks with Kris Bryant, who is also entering his last pre-arbitration year.  It’s probably no surprise that negotiations with Bryant and his agent Scott Boras are taking a bit longer than usual given Bryant’s outstanding track record over his young career.  Heyman suggests Bryant could approach the record contract given to a pre-arb player (the $1MM between Mike Trout and the Angels prior to the 2014 season).
  • The Yankees agreed to a 2017 contract with catcher Gary Sanchez, Heyman tweets.  Financial terms aren’t known, though Heyman specifies that the two sides reached an agreement and that a renewal wasn’t necessary, which would indicate that Sanchez will also be earning beyond the minimum salary.  Sanchez exploded onto the scene in 2016, hitting .299/.376/.657 with 20 homers over just 229 plate appearances.

Lorenzo Cain Wants Long-Term Deal From Royals

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Lorenzo Cain is among several key Royals who are unsigned beyond this year, but the center fielder would rather continue in Kansas City than head elsewhere in 2018, he told Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com.

“You can’t help but think about that,” said Cain, referring to his uncertain future. “You try not to, but it’s there. You know, if it were up to me, I’d be here long-term.”

As of late February, the Royals were focusing on extending another soon-to-be free agent, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and hadn’t engaged in contract talks with Cain, third baseman Mike Moustakas or shortstop Alcides Escobar. Unlike Hosmer, Moustakas and Escobar, all of whom have seriously underwhelmed at times, Cain has consistently turned in quality production as a Royal.

Since debuting in earnest with Kansas City during a 61-game 2012 campaign, Cain has hit .286/.336/.417 across 2,226 plate appearances. While that’s more of a respectable slash line than a star-caliber one, Cain has added further value defensively and on the base paths to establish himself as one of the majors’ most well-rounded players. Only nine of Cain’s fellow big leaguers have bettered his 61 Defensive Runs Saved and just six have outdone his 51.4 Ultimate Zone Rating over the past half-decade, while he ranks among the top 50 in FanGraphs’ BsR metric and has accumulated 94 steals during the same time frame.

Thanks to his all-around prowess, Cain has totaled 18.0 fWAR since 2012, good for 35th among position players and somewhere between Ian Desmond (18.5 in 3,168 PAs) and Dexter Fowler (13.9 in 2,768 PAs). Notably, Desmond and Fowler landed five-year deals worth between $70MM and $82.5MM as free agents during the offseason. Like those two, Cain is entering his age-31 season. So was Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner in 2014, when he inked a four-year, $52MM extension and eschewed a chance to hit the open market in 2015. That came after Gardner combined for 17.1 fWAR in 2,087 trips to the plate from 2009-13.

Of those three players, Cain’s closest comparable is Gardner, who has also mixed roughly average offense with plus defense and baserunning throughout his career. Cain could certainly have a case to exceed Gardner’s deal, though, particularly if he stays healthy in 2017. Cain only appeared in 103 games and amassed 434 PAs last year, during which he posted his worst batting line since 2013 (.287/.339/.408), as he missed all but one contest in September on account of a wrist injury. Fortunately for Cain, that won’t hamper him going forward.

“No problems with the wrist,” he informed Flanagan. “I’ve been taking some heavy cuts and I haven’t made a lot of contact yet. But the wrist is really good.”

With his wrist issue in the past, Cain figures to further make his case for a rich contract during the upcoming campaign. A bounce-back performance from Cain could help the Royals return to the form they showed in 2015, when they won their first World Series since 1985 and he was among their top contributors. But if the team endures a second straight mediocre season, an extension-less Cain might find himself in a different uniform around the summer trade deadline.

Central Notes: Royals, Cardinals, Indians

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Despite some early talks with Eric Hosmer, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale believes the Royals could wait until the season ends before “seriously” entering negotiations with free agents Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas or Alcides Escobar.  The Royals could be “curious to see what teams are willing to pay after a suppressed free-agent market last winter, as a similarly down market in the 2017-18 offseason might allow K.C. to re-evaluate their plans to bring any of these players back (though re-signing all four isn’t feasible).  As Nightengale notes, the Royals let Alex Gordon test the market last winter before eventually re-signing the long-time outfielder.

More from the Central divisions:

  • The Cardinals gave Cuban outfielder Jose Adolis Garcia an invitation to big league camp when they reeled him in with a $2.5MM bonus on Friday, but he’s unlikely to reach the majors before the summer, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Garcia still has to return to Haiti, where he lived after defecting from Cuba, to acquire a work visa to play in games. That could be a two-week process, notes Goold. The 23-year-old is the latest of five international players the Cardinals have added for at least $1.5MM over the past eight months, and they’re now targeting another Cuban outfielder, the highly touted Luis Robert. General manager John Mozeliak acknowledges that the international spending limitations teams like the Cubs, Dodgers and Red Sox are facing has helped the Cardinals. “Our strategy all along was when we looked at who were the players in the international market at the time the big-spenders were out,” he informed Goold. “We saw this as a window where we could be more competitive relative to other years. Where Adolis fits in for us is a.) not taxed, and b.) I like the idea of being able to go to a high level quickly.”
  • Although he ranked among Baseball America’s top 25 prospects as an outfielder in 2007, Jordan Schafer hasn’t acquitted himself well as a major leaguer, having hit .228/.308/.307 in 1,472 plate appearances. As a result, he transitioned to the mound in the Dodgers’ minor league system last year and is now trying to make the Cardinals as a hybrid player. Pitching is nothing new for Schafer, who thought someone would draft him as a hurler out of high school, details Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. However, pitching “was really never spoke of again” after the Braves selected him in the third round of the 2005 draft, Schafer told Langosch. The 30-year-old left-hander now possesses a 91 to 94 mph fastball, which he believes he can improve on, and is also working on a slider, sinker and changeup to go with his heater and curveball. Schafer “looks good” as a pitcher so far, per Cardinals manager Mike Matheny. On Schafer’s versatility, Mozeliak observed: “It’s just such a creative tool to have in your toolbox, if it works. I think it’s really interesting. I hope the manager thinks it’s equally as fun. The biggest question is, ’Will it be effective?'”
  • The Indians announced that left-hander Tim Cooney has a strained flexor in his mid-forearm and will miss 10 to 12 weeks. Injuries have beset Cooney since an excellent debut in 2015, when he fired 31 1/3 innings of 3.16 ERA ball over six starts in St. Louis, as he missed all of last season after undergoing shoulder surgery. The Redbirds jettisoned Cooney in November, leading the Indians to claim him off waivers.

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