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Dodgers “Expected” To Retain Dave Roberts As Manager

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The Dodgers’ postseason run is over much earlier than expected, and however the team might respond to its upset loss in the NLDS, moving on from manager Dave Roberts doesn’t appear to be under consideration.  Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that Roberts “is expected” to return to the dugout next season.

The news isn’t overly surprising, considering that Roberts has yet to even begin the three-year contract extension he signed last March.  2022 was the final season of Roberts’ previous contract with the team, and his new deal will keep him as manager through the end of the 2025 season.

Through seven seasons in Los Angeles, the 50-year-old Roberts has enjoyed enough success to put him on a Hall of Fame path.  Roberts has a 632-380 record over those seven years, and as Harris notes, Roberts’ .632 winning percentage is the highest of any skipper in MLB history who has managed at least 315 career games. (Negro League managers Bullet Rogan, Vic Harris, and Rube Foster are the only managers with a higher winning percentage in any recognized major league.)  The Dodgers have reached the postseason in all seven of Roberts’ seasons, won six NL West titles, three NL pennants, and one World Series championship in 2020.

Amidst that tremendous resume, of course, winning “only” one title has brought some criticism Roberts’ way, given how the Dodgers have been favored almost every one of their trips to the playoffs.  This year, L.A. dominated the league en route to a franchise record 111 wins in the regular season, only to be upset by the Padres in four games in the NLDS.  It marked just the second time in Roberts’ tenure that the Dodgers didn’t win at least one playoff round.

The decision to remove Tyler Anderson after five shutout innings in Game 4 loomed large after the Padres took the lead in a five-run seventh inning, and it joined a rather lengthy list of bullpen decisions that have backfired on Roberts in the postseason.  Beyond just the bullpen, however, the normally dangerous Los Angeles lineup went into a collective slump in the NLDS, going 5-for-34 (.147) with runners in scoring position.  It’s hard to blame Roberts for such a breakdown, and yet given the Dodgers’ consistent track record of regular-season success, nothing short of another Series championship will fully quell the criticism.

Dodgers Notes: Kershaw, Bellinger, Turner, Anderson

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Despite winning a league-leading 111 games, the Dodgers will find themselves watching the World Series rather than playing in it, having lost yesterday’s game to the Padres, and bowing out of the NLDS. With the 2022 season now behind them, the Dodgers’ front office will be tasked with configuring the team’s 2023 roster.

Nine-time All-Star and three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw returned to the Dodgers this past offseason on a one-year, $17MM contract with incentives, and, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote in September, the southpaw is leaning towards playing in the 2023 season.

Following yesterday’s game, Kershaw announced a similar intent, telling reporters that “as of right now, I’d say I’ll play again,” per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. However, the lefty added that “we’ll see what happens. Going home and being around and being a full-time dad changes your perspective on things,” per Ardaya.

Now a veteran of 15 Major League seasons, Kershaw has been a Dodger his entire career. However, the lefty was heavily courted by his hometown Rangers during the 2021 off-season, a team that will once again look to add pitching in the off-season. Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reported that the Rangers were “willing to give Kershaw more years, more money” in addition to the chance to “play home games 20 minutes from his house in Dallas.”

The Dodgers have more control over what happens with Cody Bellinger. With one year of arbitration eligibility remaining, the Dodgers will be forced to make a difficult decision regarding the 2019 NL MVP.

Bellinger and the Dodgers avoided arbitration this past offseason, agreeing to a one-year, $17MM contract before the lockout. However, the lefty has yet to perform at a similar level to his 2019 magical season. This past season Bellinger slashed .210/.265/.389 with 19 homers in 504 at-bats, improving upon his 2021 season, in which he posted a .165/.240/.302 line, but nowhere close to his .305/.406/.629 2019 season.

When asked about Bellinger, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts replied that “it’s difficult” and that he has given Bellinger “a lot of leash because he’s earned it,” per Ardaya. Importantly, as predicted by Matt Swartz’s model, Bellinger is expected to earn $18.1MM in arbitration this winter. It will be hard for any team, regardless of payroll size, to justify paying that sum to a player who has hit a collective .203/.272/.376 over the past three seasons.

If the Dodgers opt to cut Bellinger, there will likely be plenty of suitors for the 27-year-old, who slashed .278/.369/.559 throughout his first three Major League seasons.

14-year veteran Justin Turner finds himself in a similar situation to Bellinger, with the Dodgers holding a $16MM option, with a $2MM buyout, on the third baseman. Turner had a slow start to his season, slashing .256/.331/.403 over the first half before finding his grove and hitting .319/.386/.503 over the second half. However, the veteran, who will be 38-years-old next season, ended the season flat, going 4 for 24 over his last seven games and 2 for 13 against the Padres.

With the Dodgers opening the 2022 season with an all-time-high $310.6MM payroll and paying nearly $47M in luxury tax, the front office may be forced to shed Turner’s contract in an attempt to re-sign other free agents.

Switching to Dodgers’ free agents, a pair of All-Stars in Trea Turner and Tyler Anderson join the previously mentioned Clayton Kershaw.

Trea Turner is coming off his second All-Star appearance in as many years, slashing .298/.343/.466. It is a notch down from his 2021 season, where the righty posted a collective .328/.375/.536 between the Dodgers and Nationals but it should not affect his stock as a premier shortstop amongst a robust shortstop class, including Dansby Swanson and, potentially, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts, pending opt-outs.

Turner recently suffered a Grade 2 sprain in his right ring finger, but had negative x-rays and felt healthy enough to play in the critical Game 4 of the NLDS. He will likely be healthy for Spring Training.

Lefty Tyler Anderson broke out during the 2022 season after spending his prior six seasons with four different Major League Teams. The southpaw pitched to a sparkling 2.57 ERA in 178 2/3 innings while excelling at limiting hard hits (98th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and 98th percentile in HardHit%) and limiting walks (4.8%).

With Walker Buehler recently undergoing his second Tommy John surgery and Dustin May recently returning from his Tommy John surgery, in addition to Kershaw potentially leaving, the Dodgers will be on the hunt for quality starters this offseason.

Quick Hits: Turner, Cardinals, Girsch, Shaw

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Trea Turner is back in the Dodgers lineup for tonight’s critical Game 4 of the NLDS, even though Turner suffered a Grade 2 sprain in his right ring finger in yesterday’s game, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times).  Turner felt good enough in pregame warmups to play, and play in the field at shortstop, turning down Roberts’ option of only acting as the designated hitter.  X-rays were negative on Turner’s finger, and though Roberts said Turner “might take a day” with such an injury if it had happened in regular-season play, it wasn’t anything that would land a player on the injured list.

The Dodgers can hardly afford to lose such a key regular as they face elimination, down 2-1 to the Padres in the series.  Turner has also been one of Los Angeles’ hottest bats in the series, with two homers and a 1.154 OPS over his 13 plate appearances.  After singling in the eighth inning of Game 3, Turner hurt his finger while diving back to first base on a pickoff attempt.

More from around baseball…

  • General manager Michael Girsch is one of several members of the Cardinals front office whose contracts are up now that the season is over, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that he is hopeful of retaining all the staffers.  Girsch is the most prominent name, working in the organization since 2006 and acting in the GM role since June 2017, when Mozeliak was also promoted from GM to the PBO position.  Girsch’s history in the organization and the Cardinals’ track record of recent success would seemingly make it likely that he remains on a new contract, though that same organizational success could also naturally make Girsch or other front office members attractive to other clubs looking to make hires.
  • The Guardians outrighted Bryan Shaw off their 40-man roster at the end of the season, and he accepted the assignment rather than opt for free agency.  In somewhat unusual fashion, Shaw has also remained with the Guards throughout their postseason run, acting as taxi squad depth and continuing his season-long role as a mentor to Cleveland’s young pitchers.  “There’s no point in going home and just sitting there. I would rather stay here with these guys, root everyone on, and be here for moral support,” Shaw told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  A veteran of 12 Major League seasons, Shaw had limited success on the field this year, posting a 5.40 ERA over 58 1/3 innings out of the Guardians’ bullpen.

19 Players Elect Free Agency

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Players hit minor league free agency on a daily basis during the postseason, as opposed to major league free agents who hit free agency following the World Series when their contracts expire. On Thursday, MLBTR covered 15 players who elected minor league free agency, and we will continue to provide occasional updates as players continue to hit the open market, as noted on the MiLB.com transactions log.

If a player is not on their organization’s 40-man roster at the end of the season, he will hit minor league free agency as long as he has at least 3 years of MLB service time, been assigned outright more than once in his career, and/or has played in the minor leagues for parts of seven or more seasons. Everyone on today’s list is part of that group of players, and most will search for another minor league deal this offseason, though a few may manage to latch onto a major league club and secure a bench or bullpen spot entering the 2023 season.

Infielders:

Outfielders:

Pitchers:

Dodgers’ NLDS Roster Does Not Include Craig Kimbrel

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The Dodgers announced their roster for the NLDS today, with right-hander Craig Kimbrel not making the cut. Here’s who did make it…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

The Dodgers are in the postseason for a tenth consecutive season, winning the NL West in each of those seasons except last year. However, 2022 was the most impressive of the bunch as the club went 111-51, the highest win total in franchise history. They will now face off against division rivals, squaring up against the Padres in a best-of-five series.

Kimbrel’s omission from the roster is the latest step in what has been an extremely mercurial portion of his career. From 2010 to 2018, Kimbrel was one of the most dominant relievers in the sport, pitching to a 1.91 ERA while striking out 41.6% of batters faced and racking up 333 saves.

Since then, however, it’s been a rollercoaster for the righty. He was issued a qualifying offer by the Red Sox after the 2018 season, which he declined. He lingered on the open market all the way until June, eventually signing with the Cubs once the draft had already taken place and he was no longer attached to draft pick forfeiture. After missing nearly half the season, Kimbrel struggled that year by putting up a 6.53 ERA, then struggled again the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign with a 5.28 ERA.

In the first half of 2021, he seemingly got the train back on the tracks, registering a 0.49 ERA over 36 2/3 innings, getting traded from the Cubs to the White Sox. However, the pendulum swung the other way after the trade, with Kimbrel posting a 5.09 ERA after moving across town. Nonetheless, they Sox picked up his $16MM option before trading him to the Dodgers for AJ Pollock. Kimbrel recorded 22 saves for Los Angeles but was eventually moved off the closer role in September and now seems to have dropped far enough on the bullpen chart to be excluded from their playoff plans, unless an injury opens a spot for him down the line. He has a 3.75 ERA on the season, with a 27.7% strikeout rate that’s above league average but well below any of his previous seasons.

The exclusion of Kimbrel might actually say more about the Dodger bullpen than it does about him. Overall, the club’s relievers posted a 2.87 ERA this year, second only to the Astros, though L.A.’s bullpen logged 85 2/3 more innings than Houston’s. Along with quality starting pitching, an elite offense and strong defense, it’s not hard to see how this was the best team in baseball this year.

Dodgers Select Beau Burrows, Transfer Jacob Amaya To 60-Day IL

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The Dodgers have added some pitching depth to their 40-man roster, selecting the contract of right-hander Beau Burrows, per the MLB Transactions page. To open a 40-man spot, the team transferred shortstop prospect Jacob Amaya to the 60-day injured list.

Burrows, the Tigers first-round draft pick in 2015, joined the Dodgers on a minor league contract last offseason after brief, unsuccessful stints in the Majors with Detroit and the Twins. He played the entire 2022 season at Triple-A Oklahoma, initially pitching out of their rotation before being moved to the bullpen. He struggled to the tune of a 7.18 ERA across 100 1/3 innings, displaying a 12.7% walk rate and a 20% strikeout rate while giving up 18 home runs.

The move prevents Burrows from becoming a minor league free agent, and allows the Dodgers to keep some pitching depth in their organization. While the results certainly weren’t encouraging this season, Burrows is still only 26 and a former top-100 prospect, so the Dodgers may see some untapped potential in him.

Amaya, 24, impressed at Double-A Tulsa this season, slashing .264/.370/.500 in 49 games and earning a call-up to Triple-A Oklahoma. His numbers dropped off a little in Oklahoma but he still posted a respectable .259/.368/.381 line prior to landing on the 60-day injured list. The Dodgers have not specified the details of Amaya’s injury, so it’s unclear yet what his recovery will look like.

Amaya was drafted out of South Hills High School in the 11th round of the 2017 draft and is the Dodgers 15th ranked prospect, per MLB.com.

Dodgers Notes: Jarrin, Grove, Jackson, Taylor

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The Dodgers paid tribute to broadcasting legend Jaime Jarrin prior to yesterday’s game, feting the longtime Spanish-language voice of the team in his final season on the mic.  Jarrin began calling Dodgers games on the radio in 1959 (the team’s second season in Los Angeles) and has been a fixture ever since, announcing last year that he would be retiring at the end of the 2022 season.

It will mark the end of an era for L.A. fans, who had the unique benefit of hearing both Jarrin and Vin Scully call games from 1959 until Scully’s retirement in 2016.  The 86-year-old Jarrin has also had an incredible career beyond baseball, covering news for KWKW radio and calling other major sporting events like world championship boxing and the 1984 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.  We at MLB Trade Rumors wish Jarrin all the best in retirement, though he still has some very big games left to call during the Dodgers’ upcoming postseason run.

More from Chavez Ravine…

  • Right-hander Michael Grove was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a left knee contusion, as the Dodgers recalled righty Andre Jackson from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Grove suffered in the contusion in the final batter faced in his start yesterday, as C.J. Cron hit Grove with a line drive comebacker.  The injury doesn’t appear terribly serious, though the IL placement allows L.A. to get a fresh arm on the roster for the final few games of the season, and Grove was likely a borderline choice at best to make the postseason roster.  In his rookie year, Grove has a 4.60 ERA over 29 1/3 innings and seven appearances (six starts), helping the Dodgers by making a few spot starts in the place of injured or resting pitchers.
  • Chris Taylor was a scratch from Saturday’s lineup and also wasn’t in today’s lineup, as the super-utilityman is dealing with a sore neck.  Manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) that Taylor’s neck is “not great” at the moment, and Taylor is considered day-to-day.  It has been a tough year for Taylor, who missed a month of time due to a fracture in his left foot, and is hitting only .221/.304/.373 over 454 plate appearances.  His 92 wRC+ is a big step back from the 116 wRC+ Taylor posted from 2017-21, and most of his struggles have come in the 44 games since his return from the injured list.  Since the Dodgers have a first-round bye, they have the luxury of waiting until October 11 to make any decisions on Taylor or any other players dealing with injury.

Dodgers Notes: Gonsolin, Treinen, May, Almonte, Bickford

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The Dodgers plan to welcome back All-Star Tony Gonsolin soon, as noted by Jack Harris of the LA Times. Manager Dave Roberts relayed information to reporters earlier today, stating that Gonsolin’s most recent rehab start “went really well,” and that the Dodgers aim to have Gonsolin start Monday’s game against the Rockies, pitching around 3 innings, and hope to have him stretched out to 4 innings in time for the NLDS.

Before being placed on the injured list in late August, Gonsolin was pitching a fantastic season and likely would have been a serious Cy Young contender. In his first full season starting, Gonsolin has pitched to a 2.49 ERA, 23.7 K%, 7.2 BB% in 128 1/3 innings (23 starts) en route to his first All-Star appearance.

Elsewhere on the Dodgers:

  • Reliever Blake Treinen, who has missed most of the 2022 season, is still progressing in his return from shoulder tightness since being placed on the injured list, retroactive to September 7th. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reported that Treinen played catch yesterday, and, while it went fine, Treinen’s ability to come back this year will depend on how his shoulder responds in the next few days. Limited to just 5 innings this season, Treinen was dominant last season, working to a 1.99 ERA in 72 1/3 innings with a 29.7% strikeout rate. With Craig Kimbrel having lost the closing job in Los Angeles, the late-season addition of Treinen, if he’s able to make it back, may help the Dodgers plan their postseason roster
  • As Dustin May works to return from lower back tightness that forced his placement on the 15-day IL on September 24th, the flamethrowing righty said that he’s “completely confident” that he will be healthy for the NLDS, per Harris. May said he is progressing in his rehab, but is unsure as to the role he might have when he returns. Roberts informed reporters the Dodgers would prefer to use a four-man rotation in the NLDS (Harris link), and Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, and Tyler Anderson seem destined to fill out three of those spots. The last starting role appears to be up for grabs amongst Andrew Heaney, Gonsolin, and May.
  • The Dodgers activated Yency Almonte from the 15-day IL earlier today, with the right-handed relief pitcher returning to the active roster after dealing with elbow tightness in his pitching arm. In his first season with the Dodgers, the 28-year-old has pitched to a 1.15 ERA in 31 1/3 innings (29 appearances) with an above-average 24.6% strikeout rate. In a corresponding move, RHP Phil Bickford has been placed on the 15-day injured list with right shoulder fatigue. Bickford has seen heavy usage out of the pen, pitching 61 innings (60 appearances) with a 4.72 ERA while striking out opposing batters at a strong 27.1% clip. Bickford’s move to the IL ends his regular season.

Clayton Kershaw “Leaning Towards Playing” In 2023

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Some retirement speculation swirled around Clayton Kershaw at the end of last season, when the veteran southpaw was entering free agency and also dealing with forearm/elbow injuries that kept him from pitching during the Dodgers’ postseason run.  However, when he returned to full health, Kershaw ended all thoughts of retirement, and ended up returning to Los Angeles on a one-year contract worth $17MM in guaranteed money.

As Kershaw approaches free agency once again, health again might be the primary factor as to whether or not he’ll return for a 16th Major League season.  For now, Kershaw is feeling good, and told The Los Angeles Times’ Dylan Hernandez that “I do think I’m leaning towards playing over not, for sure….I hold the right to change my mind, but as of today, I think that I’ve got at least one more run.”

The 34-year-old is still a dominant force on the mound, posting a 2.42 ERA over 115 1/3 innings this season.  Still among the league’s best at limiting free passes (4.4% walk rate) and barrels (4.2% barrel rate), Kershaw also has excellent strikeout and hard-hit ball rates, not to mention a 47.7% grounder rate.  Perhaps the only noteworthy number is that innings total, as Kershaw has missed about two months due to hip inflammation and lower-back pain.

“At the end of the day, pitching is tough on my back.  There’s no way around that,” Kershaw told Hernandez.  “I can manage it, definitely, and maybe there’s a time where it can last for eight months of the year and be good.  I still think that’s in there.”

While serious in their own right, back and hip problems aren’t as potentially devastating to Kershaw’s future as an arm injury.  In that sense, Kershaw has fewer concerns than he did last offseason, and he noted that he was “thankful for the lockout” in terms of giving him some extra time to rehab and consider his next step.  Kershaw was known to have only been looking at two teams in free agency, and chose a return to the Dodgers over signing with his hometown Rangers.

Kershaw didn’t give any hints about his plans for the winter, saying that his focus is just on the Dodgers and the playoffs.  While any number of clubs would love to add a pitcher of Kershaw’s caliber to their rotation, it would stand to reason that Los Angles and Texas will be his top two (and probably only) options for another contract.  The Dodgers are certainly closer to perpetual contention than the Rangers, though if L.A. can win another World Series this fall, Kershaw might find it an intriguing challenge to head to Arlington and help the Rangers try to win their first championship.

NL West Notes: Anderson, Gonsolin, May, Almonte, Bumgarner, Gonzalez

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts spoke with reporters today, and shed some light on the Dodgers’ pitching plans and health situations heading into the postseason.  Tyler Anderson was confirmed as part of the playoff rotation, as since Tony Gonsolin is still recovering from a forearm strain, Roberts said Gonsolin will throw no more than four innings in a game, if that.  Dustin May (who just went went on the injured list yesterday due to back tightness) is slated for a bullpen role if he is healthy enough to participate.

Yency Almonte might be activated from the 10-day injured list during the Dodgers’ series against the Padres that begins on Tuesday, Roberts said.  Almonte hasn’t pitched since August 3 due to elbow tightness, but the right-hander had a rehab outing scheduled for today with Triple-A Oklahoma City.  In his first season in Los Angeles, Almonte has become an underrated piece of the bullpen mix, posting an excellent 1.15 ERA over 31 1/3 innings.

Some more from around the NL West…

  • Madison Bumgarner has thrown his last pitch of the 2022 season, as while he isn’t injured, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert (Twitter links) and other reporters that the D’Backs will use younger starters in Bumgarner’s usual rotation spot.  While Bumgarner avoided injury for the first time in his three Arizona seasons, there wasn’t much to love about the left-hander’s performance, either from a bottom-line (4.88 ERA in 158 2/3 innings) or Statcast perspective — Bumgarner did pitch generally well in the first half of the season before fading after the All-Star break.  The Diamondbacks owe Bumgarner $37MM over the 2023-24 seasons, the two final years of the five-year, $85MM free agent deal that has thus far been a bust for the club.
  • The Giants placed outfielder Luis Gonzalez on the 10-day injured list yesterday, as a lower-back strain has ended Gonzalez’s season.  This is the second time back problems have sent Gonzalez to the IL this season, as Giants manager Gabe Kapler told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters that Gonzalez had “been dealing with it ever since he even got off the IL, and I just think he was a more explosive, dynamic player going into that injury….He really has earned the right to be out there, he’s battled less than optimal physical condition to give us everything he’s had.”  In both his first season in San Francisco and in his first season with real Major League playing time, Gonzalez hit a respectable .254/.323/.360 over 350 plate appearances.  As Kapler noted, the back injury certainly impacted Gonzalez’s performance — he had an .808 OPS in 180 PA prior to his first IL stint, and just a .552 OPS in 170 PA after returning to action in early July.
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