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Max Muncy On Elbow Rehab, Freeman Rumors

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Dodgers infielder Max Muncy missed the 2021 postseason after suffering a ligament tear in his left elbow at the end of the regular season, but the slugger tells David Vassegh of Dodger Talk on AM 570 that he expects to be ready to go whenever the 2022 season can finally begin (link includes audio of the full 13-minute interview). Muncy has already begun swinging a bat and says his rehab has been “progressing well.”

“I’m getting more time to get healthy,” says Muncy in reference to the ongoing MLB lockout, “but I’m not able to work with my guys on the [Dodgers’] staff. I can’t even talk to them, really. I’d probably be getting better treatment if I was getting worked on by them, but that’s just the unfortunate circumstances. It does give me a chance to get healthy, but I’m not getting the full extent of what I could be getting. I think even before the lockout, it was looking like I was going to be possibly ready for Opening Day. I think we’re still on that track right now.”

Although Muncy suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament, he adds that Tommy John was “never really on the table for me,” as every doctor who evaluated him agreed that surgery wasn’t necessary. Muncy notes that the injury was “really bad news, but it was the best bad news can get.”

A healthy Muncy is a vital piece to the Dodgers’ lineup — particularly now that Corey Seager has departed via free agency. The 31-year-old Muncy turned in a .249/.368/.527 batting line last season while notching new career-high marks in home runs (36), doubles (26) and plate appearances (592). With Seager now in Texas and Cody Bellinger in need of a rebound following a disastrous 2021 season, Muncy has become the Dodgers’ most reliable source of left-handed power.

Of course, the rumors connecting the Dodgers to Freddie Freeman have only increased throughout the offseason, and Muncy was more than happy to voice his support for that hypothetical match.

“Imagine how dangerous we’d be if we get him in that lineup,” said Muncy. “It makes me really excited. Maybe it’s not as much first base [for me], but I think I’ve told you several times I enjoy playing second base more. If we get the DH, that’s going to be a rotating position. We’re not going to have one set DH, so that’s a way we can utilize it — to get people off their feet and get them rest days without getting them out of the lineup. I don’t think we’ll have a set DH, but that just means we’ll be rotating all around the field, and that, to me, is when it’s really fun.”

Slotting Freeman into the heart of the order would likely mean more multi-position work for the likes of Muncy, Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux. With the expected implementation of the universal designated hitter, any of those names could  see some time at DH, as could third base stalwart Justin Turner. Muncy and Taylor both have a good bit of experience at the hot corner, and Lux notched one game there last year as well (in addition to getting his feet wet in the outfield). It’s all hypotheticals for now, although the general expectation is that whenever the lockout lifts, Freeman will act quickly in choosing his next destination.

West Notes: Alvarez, Fulmer, Dodgers, Pint, Rockies, Perez, Astros

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Right-hander Yadier Alvarez is in camp with the Dodgers, tweets Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register. Alvarez was once a highly-touted prospect, with the Dodgers giving him a $16MM signing bonus in 2015 and Baseball America ranking him as the 26th prospect across the league in 2017. Despite being selected to the team’s 40-man roster prior to the 2019 season, there were concerns with his lack of control. In 2018, he pitched 48 1/3 innings at Double-A with an excellent 30% strikeout rate but a ghastly 20% walk rate.

In 2019, injuries limited him to just 3 2/3 Double-A innings and he was designated for assignment in March of 2020, eventually clearing waivers and being outrighted to the minors. Of course, the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues that year and Alvarez was only able to throw 3 2/3 Arizona Complex League innings in 2021. Despite all of those ups and downs, Alvarez is still relatively young, turning 26 on Tuesday. One silver lining of losing his roster spot two years ago is that he is not affected by the ongoing lockout, giving him a chance to show the Dodgers’ brass that he still has something to offer.

Another hurler looking for a bounceback with the Dodgers is Carson Fulmer, whom the club selected from the Reds in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft in December. Originally selected 8th overall by the White Sox in the 2015 draft, Fulmer also cracked Baseball America’s Top 100, coming in at #70 in 2016. However, he has struggled to establish himself in the majors, putting up a walk rate above 10% in each of the past six seasons. After bouncing around the waiver wire multiple times in recent years, he eventually cleared waivers in May of 2021. Plunkett spoke to the 28-year-old, who credits his former Vanderbilt teammate Walker Buehler with his current opportunity. “I think that he had chirped at the front office a little bit and tried to get me over here,” Fulmer joked. “He was excited (when the Dodgers acquired Fulmer). At the end of the day, he knows what I’m capable of. He just wanted me to be in the right place, the right situation.” Much like Alvarez, the loss of his roster spot gives Fulmer the benefit of participating in Spring Training and the upcoming minor league season, despite the lockout.

More news from teams in the west…

  • Much like Alvarez and Fulmer, Riley Pint was a highly-touted youngster who dealt with control issues. Selected by the Rockies with the fourth overall pick in the 2016 draft, Pint eventually cracked Baseball America’s Top 100 list at #46 in 2017. But from that point on, his stock continued dropping due to the aforementioned control problems. In 2021, he pitched 10 2/3 innings at High-A with an incredible 34.7% strikeout rate but and inflated 20.4% walk rate. That’s a small sample, of course, but largely indicative of his body of work in the minors. Pint retired in June of last year but has now un-retired, as reported by Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “Everybody is on his own time frame. I always love seeing the kid,” says Rockies player development director Chris Forbes “He’s a fantastic kid. I’m glad to see him back.” Pint just turned 24 in November, meaning there’s plenty of time for him to rebuild his stock in the game if he can get back on track and improve his control.
  • The ongoing lockout carries negative consequences for every player in the union, but among those with the potential to be most affected are those who have earned 40-man roster spots but were likely to spend this year in the minors. With Spring Training and the regular season both now delayed, they are losing crucial development time, along with losing access to team trainers and development staff. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle spoke to some Astros’ prospects who were recently added to the team’s roster but were then locked out almost immediately after. This includes a surreal story of an absent-minded coach texting infielder Joe Perez, looking for a status update, with Perez having to politely remind the team employee that he’s not allowed to respond. “It’s definitely been something extraordinary,” Perez said.

Four Owners Voted Against MLB’s Most Recent CBA Offer

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March 4: Angels owner Arte Moreno, D-backs owner Ken Kendrick, Reds owner Bob Castellini and Tigers owner Chris Ilitch were all opposed to proposing a $220MM CBT threshold, per Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Drellich and Rosenthal add that some concerned owners have pointed to the spending of the Dodgers and the Mets as reasons for trepidation with pushing the luxury tax threshold further north. Martino tweets, rather unsurprisingly, that the Mets and the Yankees are among the teams open to a “less punitive” CBT setup.

The Athletic report also indicates that the players were particularly irritated when MLB proposed counting the cost of player meals against the luxury tax. Whether that’s among the issues recently raised by Blue Jays righty Ross Stripling isn’t clear, but Stripling contended that the league “tried to sneak some shit past us” in the proposal’s “fine print” during the wee hours of Monday night/Tuesday morning negotiations. Health insurance and other player benefits already count toward the luxury tax under the terms of the prior CBA. League special assistant Glen Caplin called reports of MLB trying to include meal money within the CBT “grossly mischaracterized” as part of a statement included in Drellich’s article.

March 3: Major League Baseball’s most recent offer in collective bargaining proved unpalatable to the Players Association, which rejected it despite knowing the league was likely to follow by canceling some regular season games. Various members of union leadership described that as an easy decision, with the MLBPA particularly dissatisfied with the league’s proposals on the competitive balance tax thresholds and the amount of money that would be allotted for the pre-arbitration bonus pool.

While the union found the offer too slanted in favor of the league, some on the MLB side apparently viewed the proposal as going too far towards the players’ asks. Andy Martino of SNY reports that during a video call between all 30 ownership groups and MLB leadership, four owners voted against the terms of the league’s final offer to the union on Tuesday. MLB needs approval from 23 of the 30 ownership groups to agree to their end of a new CBA, so the league was able to proceed with its offer with the assent of the other 26 owners.

Obviously, the terms of that deal weren’t sufficient to get the union’s approval. Yet some of the owners who were on-board with the league’s proposal Tuesday are evidently hesitant to move any further in the players’ direction. Martino writes that the call “made it clear” that more owners would oppose any offer that pushes the base CBT threshold above the $220MM mark the league put forth. The MLBPA, meanwhile, proposed a $238MM base tax marker in 2022. Martino writes that the union refuses to entertain any offer with a 2022 tax threshold lower than $230MM.

There’s currently an $18MM gap on the luxury tax for 2022, and the parties are even more divided on the marker’s long-term future. The MLBPA has sought more rapid escalation of the threshold over the term of a potential CBA than the league has offered. Under the parties’ latest terms, the $18MM gap would rise to a $33MM divide by 2026 — the players were looking to set that year’s figure at $263MM, while MLB proposed $230MM for that season.

Martino’s report sheds some light on the challenges that remain for finding a mutually agreeable settlement on the CBT, which has proven perhaps the biggest sticking point in negotiations. The union has pursued a rapid expansion of the threshold, pointing to team spending habits suggesting the CBT has served as a de facto salary cap for clubs. Last season, five teams finished with CBT payrolls within $5MM of the $210MM base threshold. Two clubs, the Dodgers and Padres, pushed their CBT number above $210MM. Given the union’s longstanding opposition to any form of salary cap, it’s little surprise they’ve sought to dramatically increase the numbers this time around.

The league, meanwhile, has pursued the opposite initiative. MLB’s early CBA proposals included harsher penalties for tax payors, provisions that would’ve presumably made clubs even more reluctant to do so. It dropped the push for tougher penalties this week, but it hasn’t shown the appetite for the kind of higher thresholds the union seeks.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explored in December, the past two collective bargaining agreements have seen limited growth in the CBT thresholds. From the time of the tax’s introduction in 1997 through 2011, it wasn’t uncommon to see the CBT jump by more than 4% year over year. Since 2012, however, that growth has slowed considerably. The base CBT marker has moved from $178MM that year to $210MM last season, an average hike of less than 2% per year.

The league’s offer to move from $210MM to $220MM would represent a 4.8% year-over-year jump. MLB would presumably posit that’s a meaningful enough increase to be favorable to the players. However, it was followed by no movement on the tax in each of the following two years and minor increases in each of the two seasons thereafter. The union, meanwhile, seems intent on pulling in a more dramatic spike in the tax threshold to somewhat compensate for its slowed progression between 2012-21.

It’s not clear how many owners are inherently opposed to pushing that number beyond $220MM. Martino’s report hints at the conflicted interests that can arise among the ownership groups themselves. Presumably, some large-market clubs that are planning to exceed the CBT anyhow would be on-board with the union’s efforts to encourage penalty-free spending. Others could be anxious to draw a harder line, particularly with the league reportedly content to miss a month’s worth of regular season games in order to pressure the union to move in their direction.

If more than three of the owners who voted yes on MLB’s latest proposal are stringently opposed to going further, the league may be hard-pressed to find the votes to go past $220MM this year. That’d seemingly be unacceptable to the union. If there’s that kind of fundamental disagreement on the luxury tax, it’ll be essentially impossible for the sides to put a new CBA in place.

Latest On Clayton Kershaw

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The baseball world’s focus continues to fixate on the MLB lockout and today’s MLB-imposed deadline, but whenever the lockout lifts, the ensuing flurry of free-agent and trade activity has the potential to be historic. One of the most notable names among the yet-unsigned players on the market is three-time Cy Young winner and 2014 NL MVP Clayton Kershaw, who became a free agent for the first time at season’s end. The prevailing wisdom since he hit the market has been that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers or sign with the Rangers, as Kershaw’s Dallas home is a short drive from Arlington’s Globe Life Field.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today touched on that fact in his latest MLB notebook over the weekend, writing that a former teammate of Kershaw’s expects him to either sign with the Rangers or retire. That’s just one third party’s opinion, of course, and that identifier itself is rather vague. (“Former teammate” could range from Corey Seager to Ted Lilly, after all.) It’s perhaps an anecdotal note, but any clues as to the eventual decision of a future Hall of Famer (and any shreds of offseason normalcy) are of particular intrigue.

It’s already been a huge offseason for the Rangers, who’ve signed Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun as they shift gears from an abbreviated rebuild to a clear win-now approach. Despite doling out a more than a half-billion dollars in free agent contracts, however, the Rangers still ought to have the financial wherewithal to add Kershaw.

The Rangers are projected for a payroll of roughly $127MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and they have only $80.25MM in guaranteed 2023 contracts to consider. Texas ran a $165MM payroll as recently as 2017 and, from 2014-18, averaged a $146.5MM Opening Day payroll. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggested multiple times in recent weeks that a Kershaw match could be in the cards, though the implication in Grant’s latest mailbag piece was that Kershaw would be their final major free-agent expenditure if he did sign (likely at an annual salary north of $20MM).

All that said, while the possibility of Kershaw changing teams is a fascinating one on which to speculate, there’s been no firm indicator that he won’t return to the Dodgers. Kershaw himself appeared on the Dan Patrick Show earlier this month and spoke broadly about the allure of playing on a perennial contender, even if it came with the difficulty of enduring repeated playoff exits (YouTube link).

Kershaw didn’t do much to tip his hand, but he did note that for the Dodgers, “the World Series is the expectation” every year. Dodger fans hoping for a reunion will surely point out the obvious: that has not been the case for the Rangers. Of course, there are broader factors at play. Kershaw noted in that interview with Patrick that he and his wife welcomed their fourth child over the winter, and proximity to his young family will naturally play a major role in Kershaw’s decision.

It’s worth noting, too, that Kershaw certainly didn’t sound like a player who had retirement on his mind.

“We have to continue to prepare like we’re going to play,” Kershaw said when asked how the lockout impacts his preparation for the season. “…I’m continuing to prepare like we’re going to start on time, but each day it just seems like we’re getting further and further from that.”

Dodgers, Dave Roberts Discussing Extension

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TODAY: Roberts and the Dodgers are in talks, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports, with the intent to have a new contract finalized prior to the start of the season.

FEBRUARY 9: Longtime Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is entering the last season of his contract, though it seems like an extension isn’t far off, as both Roberts and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told The Athletic’s Andy McCullough.  “It’ll get done,” Roberts said, while Friedman said that “Doc has been a big part of our past success and I look forward to him being a big part of future success as well.”

There hasn’t been any indication that L.A. was planning any sort of managerial change, as Roberts has done nothing but win over his six years as the team’s skipper.  Roberts has led the Dodgers to a 542-329 record during those six years, a run that includes five NL West titles, three pennants, and the crowning achievement of the 2020 World Series championship.

With the lockout halting most baseball-related activities, Roberts has been given a bit more of an opportunity to relax and “reset” during his offseason, as he told McCullough.  It could be that an extension might have been struck earlier in the winter, though Roberts noted that he didn’t get in touch with Friedman prior to the lockout, given that the front office was naturally very busy in trying to finish more pressing matters before all Major League transactional business was halted.

Roberts joined the Dodgers back in November 2015, initially signing a three-year contract that contained a club option for the 2019 season.  Following the end of the 2018 campaign (and the Dodgers’ loss to the Red Sox in the World Series), Los Angeles exercised that club option to lock Roberts up for 2019, and then in December 2018 announced a new four-year pact with Roberts covering the 2019-22 seasons.  With that timeline in mind, it isn’t surprising that L.A. is again working essentially a year in advance to prevent Roberts from any sort of lame-duck status.

Latest On Carlos Correa

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Going into the offseason, there were many parallels between the top two free agents, Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. Both were shortstops reaching free agency at the age of 27 and coming off excellent platform seasons. Seager, along with agent Scott Boras, secured a ten-year, $325MM contract from the Rangers prior to the lockout. Correa, however, did not sign before transactions were frozen and then hired the Boras corporation to represent him in January. Once the lockout is lifted, his continued search for a contract will be one of the top storylines to follow. Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a look at some of the options, including the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers and Cubs, while Ken Rosenthal and Corey Brock of The Athletic, look into the fit with the Red Sox and Mariners, respectively.

The Dodgers, of course, had Seager as their shortstop in recent years and just saw him depart for the Rangers. The expectation has been that they were comfortable enough with that loss because they could rely on Trea Turner to take over at short. If the Dodgers were to then pivot to Correa, however, that would likely involve Turner moving over to second base, much like he did when he and Seager were on the roster together after he was acquired from the Nationals at last year’s trade deadline. Since Turner is just one year away from free agency, signing a long-term deal with Correa could be a way to proactively address the shortstop void one year before it’s absolutely necessary. This scenario seems to have been already considered by the Dodgers’ brass, as Sherman reports that they offered Seager a $275MM deal before he signed with the Rangers. However, he also notes that it might not be as simple as swapping Correa in for Seager, as Correa’s role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal might not go over so well with fans of the Dodgers, since they were defeated by that now-infamous team in the 2017 World Series.

That same issue is present with another reported suitor, the Yankees, as they were felled by the Astros in the 2017 ALCS. But Yankees’ general manager Brian Cashman has previously stated that the reaction of the fans “is not going to enter my calculus right now.” Since Gleyber Torres was moved to second base last year, it was expected that the Yankees would be major players in this year’s shortstop market. However, they may be willing to eschew a big splash, preferring to target a short-term stopgap option to hold down the position until it’s taken over by one of their prospects, either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. It’s also possible that this is merely a posture for negotiating purposes and that the club may emerge as a genuine suitor for Correa. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that they did check in with Correa prior to the lockout, but seemed to prefer Seager. Since Correa was reportedly looking for a contract slightly above what Seager eventually got, it may be difficult for a deal to come together.

The Blue Jays have less of an obvious need for Correa, given the presence of Bo Bichette at short. Sherman opines that the club could sign Correa and then bump Bichette to either second or third, but then downplays the possibility of them dishing out a contract nearing Correa’s asking price. Given the fact that they were reportedly in the mix for Seager prior to the lockout, the possibility can’t be ruled out entirely. The sign-stealing situation clearly isn’t an issue for the Jays, as they’ve already signed George Springer, Correa’s teammate in Houston. But even if they do have the payroll to make a big splash after the lockout, they may use it to make a run at Freddie Freeman instead.

The Tigers have long been considered a speculative fit for Correa, given the fact that their manager is A.J. Hinch, who previously managed Correa in Houston. However, they already made a big investment at shortstop when they signed Javier Baez prior to the lockout. Although Baez played some second base with the Mets last year in deference to Francisco Lindor and could theoretically do the same again, it still would be shocking to see them double down in such an aggressive fashion. Sherman also speculates that the Cubs could be a dark horse here. The club was primarily focused on tearing down last year, trading away most of the core pieces from their previous competitive window, including Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Since the offseason began, they have been surprisingly active in making additions, bringing on Marcus Stroman, Yan Gomes and Wade Miley. However, those players were all brought aboard with short-term commitments and pivoting to the type of lengthy deal that would be required to sign Correa seems unlikely at this stage.

As for the Red Sox, Rosenthal lays out a scenario where Correa takes over as their shortstop given that his defense is far superior to that of Xander Bogaerts, who could be shuffled over to second base. However, he also points out that, given the lockout-shortened Spring Training to come, there will be less time for Bogaerts to develop his skills at a new position than there would be in a more normal year, perhaps making the plan too awkward to implement successfully. After this season, Bogaerts can opt-out of the three years and $60MM that will be remaining on his contract, something that he seems likely to do if he has another healthy and productive season. Signing Correa now could be a way for Boston to preemptively replace Bogaerts, but as Rosenthal points out, the club hasn’t signed a free agent contract larger than $14MM since Chaim Bloom became the club’s chief baseball officer. Suddenly dropping $300MM on the table would be a huge departure in strategy. However, it’s exactly because of that avoidance of significant commitments that the club’s future payroll is fairly blank. If Bogaerts does indeed opt out after this season, that would leave Chris Sale as the only serious commitment on the books.

For the Mariners, Brock doesn’t believe it likely that there’s a match here. However, he points out that, if Correa is interested in going to Seattle, they have the money to make it happen. The club’s payroll for the year is currently around $87MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. From 2015 to 2019, the club’s annual budget hovered in the $120-160MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That leaves plenty of breathing room, if the club is willing to push up to those spending levels again in an attempt to build on last year’s 90-win campaign. The team’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto previously stated that the club wouldn’t supplant J.P. Crawford as the team’s shortstop, but it’s hard to imagine that strategy is so etched in stone that they wouldn’t consider adding a talent like Correa if the stars aligned for them to do so.

Clearly, there are many ways Correa’s market could play out once the lockout ends. With the freezing of transactions and contract negotiations, we can’t really know the intentions of any of these parties until that ice breaks and dominos start falling again. Due to the compressed timeline that will eventually exist between the signing of a new CBA and the start of the season, this will all have to play out in an expedited fashion. And with Boras also representing many other high-profile free agents like Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon and more, that figures to make the situation all the more frenzied.

Joe Kelly Hoping To Re-Sign With Dodgers

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The Dodgers declined a $12MM option on right-hander Joe Kelly in favor of a $4MM buyout after the right-hander suffered a biceps strain during the Dodgers’ NLCS showdown against the eventual World Series-champion Braves. Kelly hit the free agent market for the second time in his career and did not sign prior to the league’s implementation of a lockout on Dec. 2. He’s since been rumored to be a post-lockout target of the Cardinals, Kelly said today in a radio appearance on 570 LA Sports that he hopes to remain in Los Angeles (Twitter link, with audio).

“As with the whole lockout, once it’s over… teams are going to be signing,” Kelly said to host David Vassegh. “The signing period’s going to be like basketball. People are going to be signing at 4:00 in the morning. But obviously, I want to come back and be a Dodger — and the interest is mutual, so we’ve got to make something happen.”

Kelly’s mention of mutual interest — presumably in reference to interest shown by the Dodgers prior to the lockout — is the most concrete indicator to date of a possible reunion between the two parties. Interest on L.A.’s behalf is only natural, as the Dodgers are currently facing the potential of losing not only Kelly but also Kenley Jansen, Corey Knebel (who already signed in Philadelphia) and Jimmy Nelson to free agency. That quartet combined for 167 2/3 innings of strong relief work out of Dave Roberts’ bullpen.

The 33-year-old Kelly, in particular, enjoyed a nice rebound campaign in 2021 after being limited to 10 innings in 2020. Although he missed the first five weeks of the 2021 season due to a shoulder injury, Kelly returned with one of the finest showings of his decade-long big league career. In 44 innings, he pitched to a 2.86 ERA (3.08 FIP, 3.o9 SIERA) with a strong 27.5% strikeout rate, an 8.2% walk rate and a huge 58.9% ground-ball rate. His average heater was down a tick from its 99.1 mph peak, but Kelly’s 98.1 average fastball velocity represented a bump from his 2019-20 levels.

Generally speaking, Kelly is one of baseball’s hardest-throwing relievers. He has, at various points throughout his career, flashed huge strikeout capabilities, strong command and high-end ground-ball tendencies — but rarely all at the same time. Those three traits coalesced in 2021 more than at any point throughout his career, after the Dodgers helped take Kelly’s grounder rate from above-average (49.9% from 2012-18) to outstanding during his time in blue (59.9%).

A pair of IL stints due to shoulder troubles kept Kelly off the mound more than he or the team would’ve liked during his three-year stint as a Dodger, but the overall body of work was sound. In 105 1/3 innings, Kelly posted a 3.59 ERA with a 121-to-44 K/BB ratio (26.9 K%, 9.8 BB%), 21 holds and three saves. Many of this offseason’s top relievers — e.g. Raisel Iglesias, Knebel, Kendall Graveman — are already off the market, so Kelly should be among the more desirable options still left in free agency whenever the lockout lifts.

As for his current health, Kelly noted that he’s already throwing multiple times per week, albeit not off a mound. He’s playing catch and long toss right now but stated that his arm is “definitely going to be ready for the season” — whenever the season begins.

Dodgers, Robbie Erlin Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers have signed veteran left-hander Robbie Erlin to a minor league contract, per Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. Erlin, a client of Apex Baseball, will presumably head to big league camp once it opens and give L.A. some depth both in the rotation and in the bullpen.

A veteran of seven big league seasons, Erlin spent the 2021 season pitching with the Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan, where he appeared in 11 games and worked to a 3.32 ERA over the life of 38 innings. He whiffed 20.5% of his opponents there and posted a strong 6.8% walk rate in his brief time overseas, but he’ll now look to get back to the big leagues as a member of a former division rival.

Erlin, 31, spent the first six seasons of his big league career as a member of the Padres. Initially a third-round pick by the Rangers in 2009, he landed in San Diego by way of a trade for reliever Mike Adams, going on to ultimately appear in 106 games for the Friars from 2013-19. Thirty-eight of those appearances came out of the rotation, so he could be stretched out as starting depth for the Dodgers if they so choose. Alternatively, Erlin is no stranger to working in multi-inning relief stints, as evidenced by the 123 1/3 frames he’s racked up in 72 career bullpen outings.

Erlin produced a 4.57 ERA, a 19.1% strikeout rate and a terrific 4.7% walk rate in his 313 frames with the Padres, but his most recent action came with the Pirates and Braves in 2020. Things didn’t go particularly well in either stop for the southpaw that summer, however, as he was tagged for a combined 24 runs in 26 2/3 innings. Erlin did post a solid 25-to-7 K/BB ratio in that time, continuing his career-long trends of below-average strikeout rates but excellent walk rates. Erlin posted MLB’s lowest walk rate back in 2018 and has long had solid spin on his four-seamer and an above-average spin rate on his curveball.

8 Post-Tommy John Pitchers Who’ll Impact Next Year’s Market

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We’ve grown accustomed to seeing headline after headline indicating that a pitcher is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery in today’s game. The procedure has become so commonplace, in fact, that it’s no longer surprising to see teams guarantee multi-year deals to rehabbing pitchers who’ll be sidelined for a full season of that contract as they work back from the injury. Such deals have produced varying levels of success in the past. Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year deal with the Rays worked out great; Drew Smyly didn’t pitch for the Cubs and posted a 6.24 after being traded to the Rangers.

Heading into the 2022 season, there are a handful of notable pitchers who were either signed under just that circumstance or are now playing for a contract on the heels of a Tommy John surgery that, hopefully, is more or less in the rearview mirror. A strong rebound will position any of this bunch either as a prominent member of next winter’s free-agent crop or, in some cases, to have a lucrative 2023 club option picked up. Here’s a look at a handful of Tommy John recoveries that could have a notable impact on next year’s market.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger: A marquee addition by the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline, Clevinger made only four regular-season starts and a one-inning postseason cameo before requiring Tommy John surgery in the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego, knowing he’d miss the entire 2021 season, signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM deal that paid him $2MM during his rehab season but will more heavily compensate him in 2022, now that he’s expected to be back to full strength. It was the second Tommy John procedure of Clevinger’s career, as he also had the surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

There’s little questioning Clevinger’s talent, as the now-31-year-old righty was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball from 2017 until the time of his injury in 2020. In 489 1/3 innings over that stretch, Clevinger posted a 2.96 ERA while punching out 28% of his opponents against a 9% walk rate. Among big league pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown during that time, Clevinger ranked seventh in ERA and 14th in FIP (3.39). That said, he’s also only reached 130 innings in a big league season on one occasion, when he threw an even 200 frames in 2019.

That relatively limited workload, coupled with this being Clevinger’s second Tommy John procedure, will surely impact his free agency next winter to an extent. That said, a strong and healthy season out of the righty will still position him as one of the top arms on next winter’s market. Clevinger, teammate Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Noah Syndergaard are among the more prominent free agents still in their early 30s next winter (to say nothing of older veterans with contract options or opt-outs, such as Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton).

James Paxton: Paxton isn’t necessarily playing for a free-agent contract. He signed a complicated multi-year deal with the Red Sox that’ll pay him $6MM in 2022 before he can either trigger a $4MM player option or the team can exercise a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons. For luxury-tax purposes, that should be considered a two-year, $10MM deal, as the player option for 2023 is considered to be guaranteed money. Of course, there’s also the possibility that with a healthy season, the contract will effectively balloon to a contract that pays Paxton $32MM over a three-year term. The deal contains further incentives, as Paxton could boost those 2023-24 salaries by $250K apiece for reaching 12, 14, 16 and 18 starts.

It’s a heavily incentive-laden deal that speaks both to the considerable risk in signing Paxton and the considerable upside he’ll bring to Boston. A healthy Paxton is a high-quality big league starter, evidenced the career 3.50 ERA he carried into an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Yankees. Among the 149 big league starters to toss at least 200 innings from 2017-19, Paxton’s 30.1% strikeout rate ranked seventh, and his 7.3% walk rate was markedly better than league average. His 22.7 K-BB% was among the best in the game, as were his strong ratings in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.26) and SIERA (3.45).

Since that 2019 season, however, Paxton has undergone back surgery, missed significant time with a forearm strain and eventually undergone Tommy John surgery. Earlier in his career, he’d dealt with lat, forearm and pectoral injuries, among a litany of smaller-scale issues.

There’s probably a scenario where Paxton pitches well enough to turn down his $4MM player option even if the Red Sox decline the effective two-year, $26MM option they hold over him. (We saw a comparable situation play out with Yusei Kikuchi earlier in the winter.) That said, the ideal scenario for Paxton and the Sox is that he pitches well enough to reestablish himself as a quality MLB hurler and boost those two club options to $14MM apiece in total value in the process.

Paxton underwent his Tommy John procedure in late April, so he’s not likely to be ready to help the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. By late May or June, however, he could represent a boost to a rotation that is not exactly shy of other injury concerns.

Justin Verlander: Even though he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander still got a hefty $25MM guarantee from the Astros — plus a conditional $25MM player option that kicks in if he reaches 130 innings pitched. The two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP has a track record that speaks for itself; when we last saw Verlander in a full, healthy season, he was edging then-teammate Gerrit Cole for the 2019 AL Cy Young Award.

Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his 40s, and he has a good chance at doing so if he can bounce back this coming season. He’ll turn 39 later this week, and if he goes out and looks anything like he did from 2015-20 — 1010 innings, 2.94 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate — Verlander will likely turn down that $25MM option, or at least leverage it into a new multi-year arrangement with the ’Stros. He was just promised a $25MM guarantee despite having thrown only six innings since Opening Day 2020, so there’s little reason to accept that he’d take a year and $25MM on the heels of a healthy return effort at Minute Maid Park.

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps it’s not quite fair to label Syndergaard as a Tommy John rehabber; after all, he did make it back to the mound with the Mets late in the 2021 season — albeit for only two innings. That said, this is Thor’s first full season back from that ligament replacement procedure, and he’ll be pitching for a big contract next winter from the moment he suits up in Orange County. Signed by the Angels to a one-year, $21MM contract, Syndergaard will be pitching with a team other than the Mets for the first time in his big league career.

It’s a hefty price to pay, particularly considering the fact that Syndergaard had rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but his career to date is all the evidence needed to suggest that at his best, Syndergaard is plenty worth that gamble. He’s never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season and has never failed to strike out a batter per inning. Few pitchers can match Syndergaard’s blend of pure velocity, missed bats and impeccable command, and he manages all that while still turning in a ground-ball rate that’s well higher than the league average.

Syndergaard has always felt like he’s one step away from solidifying himself as a bona fide ace, and as Robbie Ray showed in winning the AL Cy Young Award this season, one dominant season for a player with this type of track record can result in a nine-figure payday if things break right. The market has already proven to value Syndergaard at more than $20MM per year, and given that he’d be 30 years old in 2023, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that he’s pitching for a $100MM contract this season.

Luis Severino: As with Syndergaard, Severino may not quite fit the criteria for this list. The 27-year-old (28 later this week, on the same day Verlander turns 39) returned to give the Yankees six innings out of the bullpen late in the 2021 season, and his protracted absence from the team’s pitching staff cannot be solely attributed to Tommy John surgery. Severino has also battled groin, shoulder and lat injuries along the way. That said, Severino really hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2020, and it’s that operation that is the primary reason for his absence over the past two seasons.

Severino isn’t yet slated to hit the open market at season’s end — at least not before the Yankees make a call on a $15MM club option or a $2.75MM buyout. The resulting $12.25MM net decision would be a straightforward one for general manager Brian Cashman if Severino at all looks like his former self. From 2017-18, Severino gave the Yankees 384 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with outstanding strikeout and walk rates, prompting the team to sign him to a four-year contract extension that promised him $40MM.

That deal looked like a bargain for the team at the time but has since gone south, due largely to repeated injury woes. Severino made a combined 63 regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2017-18, looking every bit like a foundational piece to the pitching staff, but he’s combined for just 25 starts and another 18 relief appearances in the five seasons surrounding that brilliant run.

With a big season in 2022, Severino could still see that $15MM option picked up, and if he can remain healthy into 2023, he’d hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes reality, however.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle: Signed by the Dodgers to a two-year, $4.75MM contract last offseason, Kahnle was never expected to contribute in 2021 — hence the backloaded nature of his contract, which will pay him $3.45MM in 2022. The hard-throwing righty only managed one inning for the 2020 Yankees, meaning this coming season will be the first since 2019 in which he’ll potentially pitch anything resembling a full workload.

The 32-year-old Kahnle has been inconsistent but has dominated more often than he’s struggled. From 2016-20, he logged a combined 3.48 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate while averaging 97.1 mph on his heater. That includes a disastrous but also fluky-looking 2018 campaign in which he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 frames. From 2016-20, Kahnle’s 32.9% strikeout rate ranks 17th among the 155 relievers to have thrown at least 150 innings, while his 15.9% swinging-strike rate is tied for sixth.

Kahnle’s Tommy John surgery came way back on Aug. 5, 2020, so there should be no restrictions on him by the time the season gets underway. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season next winter, and a return to his vintage form should position him as one of the top relievers on a free-agent market that is lacking in big-name right-handed relievers.

Ken Giles: Like Kahnle, Giles was signed by the Mariners — two years, $7MM — knowing full well that he would not pitch in 2021. Unlike Kahnle, his contract includes a club option for the 2023 season, which is valued at $9.5MM (with a $500K buyout).

Many of the same superlatives that apply to Kahnle apply even more so to Giles. His 18% swinging-strike rate, for instance, tops Kahnle and sits third among the 155 relievers who totaled at least 150 frames from 2016-20. His 3.33 ERA in that time is a bit more toward the middle of the pack, but Giles misses bats, induces chases outside the zone and throws as hard as nearly any reliever in the sport. He’s had a pair of 4.00-something ERAs sprinkled in amid a series of pristine marks throughout his big league career. Those two blemishes have coincided with spikes in his average on balls in play and dips in his strand rate.

On the whole, Giles is a power arm who can pile up strikeouts in droves. He’s a sometimes forgotten piece of the puzzle when looking at the 2022 Mariners and their hopes of contending, but he’ll join a deep bullpen mix that also features Diego Castillo, 2021 breakout closer Paul Sewald, former Marlins stopped Drew Steckenrider (who enjoyed a tremendous rebound in 2021) and the underappreciated Casey Sadler, who notched a 0.67 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year.

A healthy Giles would very likely see that $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season picked up, and at his best, he’s a bargain at that price. If Giles is pitching well but things go south for the Mariners, teams will come calling at the trade deadline. Of course, the Mariners are hoping to be squarely in the postseason mix, and they’re likely not done with their offseason shopping just yet.

Jose Leclerc: Armed with a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Leclerc’s ability to return to form (or his lack thereof) will have major implications for the Rangers moving forward. His four-year, $14.75MM contract extension includes a $6MM club option for the 2023 season and a $6.25MM option for the 2024 season. A rebound effort makes that 2023 option a no-brainer for the Rangers to pick up as they hope to ride a hyper-aggressive offseason into their next competitive window.

Leclerc, 28, has fanned just shy of a third of the hitters he’s faced so far in his big league career and has only allowed a dozen homers in 189 Major League innings (0.57 HR/9). His 14.9% walk rate is far too high, but he looked to be making considerable strides in that department in 2019 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA, a 38.1% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. He’ll be a highly intriguing lottery ticket on next year’s market if he pitches poorly enough that the Rangers buy that option out (or if they do so on the heels of another injury). If he rebounds, he’ll be a bargain piece of an on-the-rise Rangers club in 2023-24.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/15/22

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Major League free agency remains in a transactions freeze, but teams are still inking players to minor league pacts as we await a new collective bargaining agreement. Here’s a quick look at a couple former prospects of note who’ve agreed to deals in recent days…

  • The Phillies signed former Red Sox prospect and Philadelphia native Josh Ockimey to a minor league contract, as announced by Ockimey himself (on Twitter). The 26-year-old slugger was Boston’s fifth-round pick back in 2014 and consistently ranked among the organization’s top 25 prospects at Baseball America throughout his time there, peaking at No. 10 in the 2016-17 offseason. A left-handed-hitting first baseman, Ockimey posted solid numbers up through Double-A before beginning to struggle in Triple-A. He’s still drawn his walks (16.6%) and hit for power (.221 ISO) at the minors’ top level, but Ockimey’s 31.4% strikeout rate in Triple-A has contributed to a .214/.349/.435 overall slash line in 933 plate appearances there. He’ll give the Phillies some additional depth at first and at designated hitter — assuming the universal DH is implemented after the lockout, as expected.
  • Catcher Chris Betts is headed to the Dodgers on a minor league contract, per the transactions log at MLB.com. The 24-year-old was the No. 52 overall pick by the Rays back in 2015 but missed his first full season after requiring Tommy John surgery. He ranked among Tampa Bay’s top prospects at Baseball America up until the 2018 season but has struggled to stay healthy throughout his pro career. Betts appeared in a career-high 110 games with the Rays’ Class-A affiliate in ’19, hitting .210/.333/.400 in 472 plate appearances. He appeared in just 27 games and tallied only 89 plate appearances in 2021, but he’ll give the Dodgers a once well-regarded catching prospect to stash in the middle levels of their system in 2022, if healthy. Betts drew praise for his bat speed and raw power back when BA ranked him as the 2015 draft’s No. 28 overall prospect, but he’s a project for the Dodgers at this point.
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