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Mariners Designate Dan Robertson, Trade Tyler Olson To Dodgers

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The Mariners have announced that the club designated outfielder Dan Robertson for assignment to clear space for the signing of Hisashi Iwakuma. And the team further announced that previously-designated lefty Tyler Olson has been dealt to the Dodgers for a player to be named later or cash.

The 30-year-old Robertson spent the 2015 season with the Angels, where former Anaheim GM and current Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto had acquired him from the Rangers. He logged 80 plate appearances with the Halos, upping his big league total to 277. In that time, Robertson is a .274/.324/.325 hitter. He also boasts a solid minor league track record and is capable of playing all three outfield positions, making him a valuable depth option for a big league team.

Olson, 26, made his big league debut with the Mariners last season, pitching 13 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. The results weren’t particularly encouraging, as he surrendered eight runs on 18 hits and 10 walks, although in one of the more bizarre stats you’ll come across, seven of those 10 walks were intentional in nature. In 54 1/3 Triple-A innings, Olson managed a more palatable 4.47 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. However, after holding lefties to a .206/.280/.279 batting line in 2014, the Gonzaga product yielded a .253/.340/.448 slash to lefties between the Majors and minors in 2015.

NL East Notes: Chipper, Fernandez, Raburn, Mets, Phillies

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The Braves announced on Thursday that former NL MVP and likely Hall of Famer Chipper Jones has joined the front office as a special assistant to GM John Coppolella and president of baseball operations John Hart. Jones, who retired in 2012, will serve as an instructor in Spring Training, assist Braves hitters during the regular season, assist in amateur scouting in advance of the June draft and evaluate/instruct minor leaguers throughout the organization in his new role. Said Coppolella of the addition (via press release): “[Jones] brings a wealth of experience – from being a number one overall draft pick, to having a highly-successful career as a World Series champion, a league MVP and a batting champion, to coming back from major injuries. Chipper spent his entire Hall-of-Fame caliber career in a Braves uniform and we look forward to his input with our staff and with our hitters.” Indeed, Chipper seems Cooperstown-bound after wrapping up his career with a lifetime .303/.401/.529 batting line, 468 homers, eight All-Star appearances, an MVP Award, two Silver Slugger Awards and 85 wins above replacement across a brilliant 19-year career.

Here’s more from the NL East…

  • Joe Frisaro of MLB.com gets the sense that the Marlins don’t see the Dodgers as a fit for Jose Fernandez (Twitter link). Then again, he writes, Fernandez is highly unlikely to get traded anywhere. There’s been quite a bit of speculation connecting the Dodgers to the Marlins’ young ace recently, especially in light of the club’s acquisition of three new prospects in the three-team Todd Frazier deal.
  • The Mets have checked in on Ryan Raburn, according to Matt Ehalt of The Bergen Record (on Twitter). Raburn would make a lot of sense for the Mets as a backup first baseman/outfielder, he adds, which makes sense given the left-on-left struggles we’ve seen from Curtis Granderson and, to a lesser extent, Lucas Duda (although Duda’s success against lefties in 2015 was heavily BABIP-driven). Raburn, 35 next April, batted .301/.393/.543 with eight home runs in 201 plate appearances. Despite those outstanding numbers (which were the result of extreme platooning), the Indians declined their $3MM option for him.
  • Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com notes (on Twitter) that there should be some interesting bullpen competition brewing in Phillies camp thanks to the additions of non-roster vets James Russell, Ernesto Frieri, Andrew Bailey, and Edward Mujica. (Bailey and Mujica are the newest additions to that mix, having agreed to deals on Thursday.) The bullpen picture in Philadelphia does indeed appear to be very open following trades that have seen Jonathan Papelbon, Jake Diekman and Ken Giles depart over the past five months. As it currently stands, the only pitcher on the Phillies’ bullpen depth chart at MLB.com that have even thrown 100 career innings are David Hernandez, Jeanmar Gomez and Luis Garcia (who barely reaches that threshold, with 112 innings under his belt). That could indeed open the door for veterans to make the club — any of whom could ultimately pitch his way into status as a trade chip.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Latest On Dodgers, Hisashi Iwakuma

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1:08pm: Issues arose during Iwakuma’s physical with the Dodgers, Bill Plunkett of the OC Register tweets, but the team has not closed the door to signing him.  Talks are still ongoing between the two sides.

11:04am: Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (on Twitter) hears that the Dodgers are not out on Iwakuma. He surmises that they could be reworking the contract, however.

10:50am: The Dodgers are backing out on their agreement with pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma due to concerns over his physical, according to a Japanese-language report from the Jiji Press (translation via Kazuto Yamazaki on Twitter).  There’s no official word yet from the team regarding Iwakuma’s deal, but it should be noted that the two sides reached agreement all the way back on December 6th and a hiccup with the physical would explain the delay in making an announcement.

Iwakuma posted a 3.54 ERA in 20 starts for the Mariners last season, including a no-hitter.  He missed more than two months with a lat strain, however, and turns 35 in April.  He also dealt with some shoulder issues.  It’s not immediately clear what red flag(s) popped up on the veteran’s physical, however.  The Dodgers and Iwakuma shook hands on a three-year, $45MM contract prior to the Winter Meetings.  At the time, that seemed like a fair price for the Japanese hurler given the strength of the pitching market.  In fact, at the outset of the offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that exact contract for him.

Despite injury troubles, Iwakuma ended up turning in a typically excellent campaign for the Mariners in 2015.  Over 129 2/3 innings, he worked to a 3.54 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. Remarkably enough, that’s the worst single-season earned run average he has compiled over a single campaign. He’s been remarkably good since coming to Seattle from Japan before the 2012 season. In 653 2/3 total MLB frames, Iwakuma has allowed just 3.17 earned runs per regulation game.

If the Dodgers don’t finalize their deal with Iwakuma, they could turn to fellow free agent starter Mike Leake, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.  Leake is talking with the Nationals and Astros, but his preference is to pitch out west.  Leake has talked to teams about at least a five-year deal for about $75MM (link).  Scott Kazmir is also a consideration for Los Angeles, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports tweets.

Dodgers Notes: Friedman, Frazier, Turner

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Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda has traveled to Los Angeles to start meeting with teams, according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register (on Twitter).  The Dodgers, he adds, are expected to be among the clubs that place a bid in order to negotiate with the right-hander.

If the Dodgers are serious about making a run at the Hiroshima Carp star, they might find that the market for him isn’t as competitive as it might have been a few weeks ago.  We learned last week that the Red Sox will not submit a bid to negotiate with Maeda thanks to the mammoth deal given to David Price.  At the Winter Meetings, Giants GM Bobby Evans told MLBTR that his club had internal conversations about Maeda, but they’re almost certainly out on him after adding Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto.

Here’s more out of L.A.:

  • Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters, including Shaikin (Twitter link) that he didn’t land Todd Frazier himself because he wanted Justin Turner to remain at third base.  Acquiring Frazier and putting him elsewhere on the diamond would have been “messy,” in Friedman’s estimation.  Frazier, of course, went to the White Sox in Wednesday’s three-way deal involving the Reds and Dodgers.
  • Friedman says that the Dodgers like the newly-acquired Frankie Montas as a starting pitcher and, if not, they see him as an “impact bullpen arm,” Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets.  Many scouts see Montas as a power reliever.     Friedman says that his scouts believe that Montas has one of the best fastball/slider combos in the minors, Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times tweets.
  • Friedman said he knows some teams are interested in the players he acquired today, but he cautioned that one trade is not necessarily precursor to another, Shaikin tweets.  Still, when asked if he’s now more comfortable with the idea of parting with elite pitching prospects, Friedman answered in the affirmative (link).
  • In an interview on KLAC, Friedman did acknowledge that the trade improves the team’s “trade capital to match up with other teams,” according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register (on Twitter).

White Sox Acquire Todd Frazier In Three-Team Deal With Dodgers, Reds

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The first domino has fallen in the Reds’ offseason rebuild, as Cincinnati has announced the trade of All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier to the White Sox in a three-team deal that also includes the Dodgers. Cincinnati will receive three prospects — infielders Jose Peraza and Brandon Dixon and outfielder Scott Schebler — from the Dodgers, who, in turn, will receive prospects Frankie Montas, Micah Johnson and Trayce Thompson from the White Sox.

The acquisition of Frazier will give the White Sox a drastically altered infield composition, as he’ll now take over at third base with fellow trade acquisition Brett Lawrie moving over to second base. Frazier, who turns 30 in February, adds a power bat to the middle of Chicago’s lineup to complement fellow right-handed slugger Jose Abreu and also gives Chicago a well above-average defender at the hot corner. The reigning Home Run Derby champion, Frazier has batted a combined .264/.322/.479 with 64 home runs over the past two seasons with the Reds. He’s set to earn $7.5MM in 2016 and can be controlled via the arbitration process for the 2017 season, after which he will be eligible for free agency.

Frazier’s trade value probably would have been higher were it not for a dismal second half. Some will speculate that his Home Run Derby success altered his swing following the All-Star Game, but whatever the reason, Frazier’s .220/.274/.390 second half paled in comparison to his monstrous .278/.333/.550 first half.

With Frazier on board, the Sox can shift their focus to shortstop, unless the plan is to enter the season with the largely untested Tyler Saladino in that role. Assuming an outside addition at the shortstop position, Saladino could slide into a utility role and back up at three different positions around the revamped infield.

For the Reds, the centerpiece of the deal is Peraza — a fleet-footed, Major League ready infielder whom they can control for the next six seasons. Peraza has long rated as one of the Braves’ better prospects but was flipped to the Dodgers in the 13-player summer blockbuster that also included the Marlins. Peraza’s stay with the Dodgers will be brief, but he should be in line for fairly regular at-bats immediately in Cincinnati — especially if the Reds ultimately trade Brandon Phillips as well.

Jose Peraza

Peraza, 22 in April, made his big league debut in 2015, collecting four hits in 22 September at-bats for Los Angeles. He batted a combined .293/.316/.378 with 33 steals between his two Triple-A affiliates last season and has a pair of 60-steal seasons under his belt in the minor leagues. His youth is one of the keys to the deal, as Peraza reached the Majors at the same age we see many top prospects selected out of college in the draft. He’s three years younger than Johnson or Thompson, and the Reds are clearly banking on continued development and improved production as he catches up to his competition in terms of physical maturity. Peraza entered the 2015 campaign universally ranked as a Top 100 prospect — MLB.com had him 38th overall — and he figures to do so again in 2016, as Baseball America’s Ben Badler tweets.

BA recently ranked Peraza as the Dodgers’ No. 4 prospect, trailing only Corey Seager, Julio Urias and Jose De Leon. In Badler’s scouting report, he praised Peraza’s bat-to-ball skills and speed, noting that he could hit for average and swipe 30-plus bases in a regular role. BA’s camp is split on Peraza, it would seem, as John Manuel tweets that Peraza needs to play shortstop to have value as a regular, while J.J. Cooper opines that Peraza should be a solid regular, albeit not a star. Peraza ranks fourth on MLB.com’s list of Dodgers prospects as well and, in fact, ranks 24th on their current Top 100 list. He’s seen time at shortstop, second base and in center field in his career thus far, and second base would seem the most obvious path to at-bats for him in the event of a Phillips swap. He’ll give Cincinnati another versatile piece that can conceivably handle multiple positions, joining Eugenio Suarez in that capacity.

Like Peraza, Schebler can conceivably step right onto the Reds’ roster. He, too, made his big league debut in 2015, albeit receiving just 40 plate appearances. Schebler unquestionably struggled at the Triple-A level, as his .241/.322/.410 batting line (in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, no less) was a marked departure from the .280/.365/.556 line he posted as a 23-year-old in Double-A. However, he’ll play all of next season at 25 years of age and has a history of hitting for power in the minors, as evidenced by the combined 55 homers he launched from 2013-14.

Schebler ranked 13th on MLB.com’s Dodgers Top 30 and 14th on the same list from BA. MLB.com notes that he’s best-suited for corner outfield work — an area of need in Cincinnati — and is a solid baserunner but not a big base-stealer. Some scouts, they add, are hesitant with Schebler because he relies more on raw strength than bat speed to produce his power. BA has previously pegged him as a possible regular in left field, and former Fangraphs scribe Kiley McDaniel noted heading into the 2015 season that Schebler “fits the bill as an under-the-radar performer who could surprise.” However, I’d imagine that his 2015 struggles have clouded that likelihood to some extent.

The 23-year-old Dixon didn’t rank among Los Angeles’ Top 30 prospects in the estimation of BA or MLB.com. He was selected in the third round of the 2015 draft and raked in 45 games at Class-A Advanced this past season before struggling after a promotion to Double-A. He’s played second base, third base and the outfield in his young career and posted a cumulative batting line of .263/.303/.443 with 19 homers this past season between his two levels. Dixon also turned in a nice showing in the Arizona Fall League, batting .295/.318/.508 with three homers in 16 games, and he performed well last winter while playing in the Australian Baseball League.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, pick up a number of prospects with plus tools but uncertain overall packages. Montas, 23 in March, can reach 100 mph with his fastball and has been developed as a starting pitcher, but many scouts still see him as a reliever due to a lack of control. MLB.com currently ranks him as the game’s No. 54 prospect, noting that if everything clicks he’s a potential No. 2 starter, but he could end up as a high-leverage reliever instead due to the aforementioned control issues. BA recently ranked him as the No. 17 prospect in the Double-A Southern League, with Matt Eddy writing that despite holding his velocity deep into starts, troubles with repeating his delivery and lack of strong secondary offerings could lead to relief work.

Thompson, 25 next March, ranked 14th on MLB.com’s list of top White Sox prospects. Known for his excellent athleticism — he’s the brother of NBA superstar Klay Thompson and the son of former NBA player Mychal Thompson — Trayce debuted in 2015 and batted .295/.363/.533 with five homers in 44 games. He hasn’t shown that type of power in the minor leagues, but some have questioned how much he’ll hit in the Majors and projected that he could become a fourth outfielder. Even if that’s the ultimate case, he fits much better on the Dodgers’ current roster than Schebler due to his ability to handle all three outfield positions. The presence of Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Joc Pederson, Scott Van Slyke and Enrique Hernandez in L.A. seems to point to Thompson opening next season in the minor leagues, even though he’s more or less ready for big league action. (Further trades could clear a path for him in the Majors.)

Johnson, who turns 25 on Friday, has long been considered the potential second baseman of the future in Chicago, but he’ll now hope to land that role in Los Angeles. His first taste of Major League action in 2015 didn’t go too well, as he batted just .230/.306/.270 in 114 plate appearances. However, Johnson is lauded for his elite speed — he swiped 84 bases in 131 games in 2013 — and delivered a quality .316/.376/.466 batting line in 2015. MLB.com places a 75-grade on his speed (on the 20-80 scale). Johnson, though, has little in the way of power (24 homers in 1761 minor league PAs) and is said to be a shaky defender at second base. He made three errors in 32 starts at second base last season, and in just 280 innings drew ratings of -7 and -3 from Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, respectively. He could also be ticketed for Triple-A to begin the 2016 season, with veteran Chase Utley on board to hold down the fort at second base while Johnson develops.

Overall, it’s fair to question the return that Cincinnati received in the deal. The trade very clearly hinges on the development of Peraza, whom the Reds reportedly “love” and were on the verge of acquiring in the failed Aroldis Chapman trade, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (Twitter link). The Reds do indeed acquire a pair of players in Peraza and Schebler that are near MLB-ready or presently MLB-ready, but neither seems to possess star-caliber upside. A pair of solid regulars — or even one solid regular, for that matter — will make this a palatable return in the long run, but most seemed to be expecting more impactful prospects in return for a player of Frazier’s caliber, especially when considering his reasonable price tag. Perhaps his poor second half tanked some of his trade value, but given the bulk of clubs that were tied to Frazier the general consensus will be that Cincinnati might have been — or at least should have been — able to acquire more in a trade of this magnitude.

Yahoo’s Jeff Passan first reported that Montas was going to the Dodgers in a trade. C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer broke the news of a three-team deal including Frazier (on Twitter). Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the other prospects in the trade (links to Twitter).

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

White Sox, Dodgers Nearing Trade; Frankie Montas Involved

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The White Sox and Dodgers are nearing the completion of a trade, reports Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (on Twitter). Top right-handed pitching prospect Frankie Montas would head to the Dodgers in the deal, Passan notes, so it figures to be a fairly significant move. Passan does add that Yasiel Puig is not a part of the developing transaction.

Specific parameters beyond that remain unclear, but both clubs aim to contend in 2016, so each team will likely be acquiring players that can contribute in immediate fashion. (Montas, who made his Major League debut in 2015, fits that bill for the Dodgers.) The White Sox could use upgrades at shortstop and one of second base or third base (Brett Lawrie will man the other position).

West Notes: Cueto, Giants, Astros, Dodgers

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Giants GM Bobby Evans discussed the prospective addition of Johnny Cueto yesterday, noting the deal’s upside, as Alex Pavlovic of CSNBayArea.com reports. “You have a guy that has a chance to be an elite presence in your rotation if he’s healthy and we can play good defense behind him and he uses our ballpark to his advantage,” said Evans. Of course, the deal is not yet official, though Evans’s comments appear to suggest that the club isn’t too worried about the physical, which John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle says (on Twitter) will likely take place Wednesday.

Here’s more from out west:

  • The San Francisco GM also addressed the team’s outfield search, indicating that he’ll continue to keep an eye on all potential options in the market. But a significant move isn’t likely after the commitments to Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, Pavlovic reports.
  • ESPN.com’s Keith Law discusses the Cueto move, explaining that there’s a good deal of risk for the Giants but noting that there are some positives. For one thing, says Law, the veteran looks to be a good fit for spacious AT&T Park; for another, the early opt-out provision (after two years) arguably makes better sense than other such uses of that type of clause. Of course, it ultimately all comes down to whether Cueto will return to form or if his rough second half is an indication of the future.
  • The Astros would “definitely like to bring in another starter,” owner Jim Crane said yesterday, as Jose de Jesus Ortiz tweets (video link). Houston has real interest in Yovani Gallardo, could potentially match up on Mike Leake, and remains interested in a reunion with Scott Kazmir, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. The team doesn’t appear to be moving on Kenta Maeda, he adds, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if GM Jeff Luhnow and co. decide to wait out the market and “bargain hunt.”
  • Former big league catcher Josh Bard is likely to join the Dodgers coaching staff, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. He’s expected to slot in as the bullpen coach, Morosi suggests.

Giants, Johnny Cueto Progressing Toward Deal

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3:17pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that the two sides are making progress on a deal and could have an agreement in place soon (Twitter link).

2:34pm: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the Giants and Cueto are discussing a deal that “easily” tops the $120MM figure he rejected from Arizona. The Dodgers and “a couple others” are still in the mix, but the Giants are working the hardest to get something done. The deal being discussed with San Francisco (and others) will “likely” contain an opt-out clause, Heyman adds.

1:48pm: The Cardinals and Dodgers have both “dabbled” in Cueto’s market, tweets Crasnick, but both teams were hesitant to even approach the reported $120-126MM that Cueto rejected, let alone exceed it.

1:24pm: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that action on Cueto does indeed seem to be picking up (links to Twitter). One source that spoke to Crasnick and knows Cueto’s market well feels that the right-hander could ultimately top the $120-126MM offer he rejected from the D-backs.

12:46pm: The Giants are making a “strong push” for right-hander Johnny Cueto, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link).

San Francisco, of course, was a finalist for the services of Zack Greinke but lost out to a stunning last-minute push by the division-rival Diamondbacks. Since that time, they’ve added Jeff Samardzija on a five-year, $90MM contract, but they’ve reportedly been open to bringing in another starter in addition to that signing. Cueto has already rejected a six-year offer from the D-backs that was reported to be worth $120-126MM in total, which should serve as a barometer of sorts when gauging the type of money it will take to sign him. Of course, it’s not certain that Cueto will sign for more than that figure — his market may have some down a bit, he may simply not have wanted to play with the D-backs, etc. — but it’d be a surprise to see him take substantially less just two weeks after that reported offer.

Cueto, 30 in February, posted a combined 3.44 ERA in 212 innings with the Reds and Royals this past season. His late struggles with Kansas City are well known at this point, as he recorded a 6.49 ERA over his final 51 1/3 innings on his new club. Cueto had mixed results in the playoffs, struggling in two starts but also delivering a pair of masterpieces, including a one-run, complete game victory over the Mets in Game Two of the World Series.

Cueto missed a small amount of time over the summer with a minor elbow injury that never sent him to the disabled list. Regardless, the earlier injury and rocky performance with the Royals has created a fair amount of skepticism surrounding him this offseason, at least in the media. Clearly, with at least one club willing to offer a significant six-year contract, teams aren’t completely scared off by any uncertainties that may exist regarding his right elbow.

Central Notes: Frazier, Rodriguez, Melancon, Royals

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The Indians and White Sox were both rumored to be interested in Todd Frazier during last week’s Winter Meetings (the Royals, too, are said to have discussed him as a possible left field option), and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports adds a few more teams to the list of interested clubs. The Dodgers, Nationals, Rangers and Angels are all “believed to have some involvement or interest,” in the Reds’ third baseman, Heyman writes. Talks are “starting to percolate,” says Heyman. Last week, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported that the Reds are “heavily” shopping Frazier.

A few more notes from the game’s Central divisions…

  • Utility man Sean Rodriguez is generating interest from four clubs at the moment, including the Pirates and Tigers, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. The 30-year-old batted just .246/.281/.362 in 240 PAs with the Pirates last season, but his ability to play all four infield positions as well as the outfield corners is a selling point, Crasnick notes.
  • In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, Pirates GM Neal Huntington confirmed that he’s willing to listen to offers on closer Mark Melancon (Twitter link). However, he also added, “We’re gonna have to get something that really makes sense to even consider moving him.” The Pirates recently freed up some money by trading Charlie Morton to the Phillies and may have saved a bit of cash in the Neil Walker/Jon Niese swap, so there may not be as much pressure, financially speaking, to move him as there was even one week ago.
  • Despite last season’s World Series Championship, the Royals are expected to operate with a payroll that is similar to 2015’s mark of $115MM, writes the Kansas City Star’s Sam Mellinger. As such, it’s unlikely that the club is able to retain Alex Gordon, barring unforeseen circumstances. Specifically, Mellinger writes that the club could circle back to Gordon if he lingers on the open market, unable to find a significant pact (presumably, one of five years). Mellinger notes that recent Royals free agents James Shields and Ervin Santana saw their price drop substantially later in the offseason, and the team does believe that the crowded outfield market means that supply and demand are working in its favor with regards to the outfield market, Mellinger writes. It does seem unlikely (to me, anyhow) that Gordon’s price will dip back into Kansas City’s comfort zone, although the Royals do have to be encouraged to hear that the Cardinals aren’t likely to embark on an aggressive pursuit of Gordon.

Reported Runner-Up Offers For Heyward And Greinke

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The most important numbers involved in any free agent scenario are, obviously, the final deal terms. But the offers made by other clubs are not only interesting but also potentially tell us something about the market — both at the time of the signing and even moving forward.

We heard plenty of discussion today about how much cash was dangled in front of two of this year’s three biggest free agent pieces: Jason Heyward and Zack Greinke. Heyward reportedly agreed with the Cubs for eight years and $184MM, with a contract provision allowing him two separate opportunities to opt out of the deal and re-enter the market. Meanwhile, after exercising just such a clause to jump back into the free agent waters, Greinke inked a mind-blowing six-year, $206.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks (which included some very significant deferrals).

Before entering those arrangements, both players considered multiple other arrangements. For Heyward, the elusive $200MM barrier was reportedly met or exceeded by both the Nationals and the Cardinals. (Per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch — here and here — and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, on Twitter.) And at least one other team, possibly the Angels, also beat Chicago’s total guarantee with its bid. (That’s per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Twitter links; see here for the Halos’ late interest.)

Notably, though, we’ve not been told how many years Washington and St. Louis covered in their offers, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that it seems neither met the $23MM AAV that Heyward will reportedly receive. And as Keith Law of ESPN.com stresses on Twitter, it’s even more important to bear in mind that the opt-out opportunities carry significant value and that Heyward will owe less in state taxes in Illinois than he would have in the other locales.

While acknowledging the opt-out value, Passan notes that it’s nevertheless “uncommon” for a player to turn down a greater overall guarantee, and that’s largely true in the abstract. But it’s important to remember, too, that Heyward’s unique market placement — he hasn’t even reached the halfway point between 26 and 27 years of age — makes his situation quite a bit different from that of most free agents.

For one thing, Heyward’s age arguably increases the worth of those bail-out clauses even further, since he’ll gain the right to re-enter the market in advance of his age-29 season. That’s still early for a free agent, and might give Heyward a chance not only to step up his AAV (if his performance increases and/or salary inflation continues) but also to tack on more years down the line. Greinke pulled exactly that trick despite turning 32 before signing his new deal, and the upside for Heyward is even greater.

Also, gaining two opt-out points will allow Heyward to assess his market timing while keeping the future guarantee in his back pocket. That not only adds to the value going to him in this deal but also increases the uncertainty and risk for the Cubs.

It’s worth noting, too, that even if Heyward does play out the full eight years in Chicago, he’ll stand to hit the market again before he turns 35. That’s exactly the point in his career that Ben Zobrist finds himself as he joins the Cubs on a four-year, $56MM contract. There’s good reason to believe that Heyward will be plenty capable of continuing to earn money on the open market at the end of his deal, which makes it much easier (and arguably wise) to forego another year (or two) of commitment for a relatively marginal bump in the overall guarantee — all at the cost of annual earning power.

Simply put, without knowing whether the other bidders were willing to include similar opt-out terms, and without knowing the length of their proposals, it’s impossible to compare the offers. From my perspective, though, the deal that Heyward ultimately agreed to is a better contract for him than the straight ten-year, $200MM deal that we at MLBTR thought Heyward could command (see here and here).

As for Greinke, the veteran righty said today in his introductory press conference that he was literally minutes away from signing with some unknown other club before Arizona swept in. ESPN’s Molly Knight tweeted that the Giants were actually the runners up, making Greinke a six-year, $195MM offer.

But San Francisco’s president of baseball operations Brian Sabean has said publicly that the club was not comfortable promising Greinke a sixth year. And both Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (Twitter link) and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (also on Twitter) strongly disputed the notion that the Giants had come anywhere near the D-Backs’ offer.

The Dodgers, too, are said to have balked at going to six years on Greinke, as MLB.com’s Mark Saxon was among those to note recently (Twitter link). It remains unclear how high the Los Angeles offer was, and whether it or another team was the one that nearly struck a deal with Greinke.

Looking at all of those reported offers, it seems clear that there are several clubs that have the capacity and willingness to spend much more money this winter than they have so far. That’s not to say that all will actually put that cash right back into free agency. But the potential is there, and it’s also notable that an unexpected team (the Diamondbacks) put so much cash onto the market.

All said, there’s plenty left to be spent. And that makes sense: more than half of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents — including six of the top ten — remain unsigned at present.

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