Dodgers, Kenley Jansen Avoid Arbitration
The Dodgers and standout closer Kenley Jansen have avoided arbitration, according to a club announcement. Jon Heyman tweets that Jansen will receive a hefty $10.65MM salary for 2016 — his final season before qualifying for free agency. Jansen, a client of the Wasserman Media Group, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn an $11.4MM payday this winter.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday
Here are the day’s lower-value arbitration deals, with all projections coming via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- The Padres and southpaw Drew Pomeranz have avoided arb by agreeing to a one-year, $1.35MM deal, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. That’s a near-match with Swartz’s projection of $1.3MM. Acquired in an offseason trade with the A’s, Pomeranz will slot into the San Diego ‘pen this season and look to build on last season’s 86 innings of 3.66 ERA, during which he averaged 8.6 K.9 and 3.2 BB/9 to complement a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate.
- Fernando Salas and the Angels are in agreement on a one-year, $2.4MM deal, thereby avoiding a hearing, per Rosenthal. The 30-year-old Salas, who will be a free agent next winter, posted a 4.24 ERA in 63 2/3 innings this past season but had more encouraging peripherals; Salas averaged 10.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 with a 35.1 percent ground-ball rate, prompting FIP (3.15) xFIP (3.23) and SIERA (2.65) to forecast markedly better results.
- Right-hander Jeanmar Gomez and the Phillies have avoided arb with a one-year, $1.4MM agreement, Rosenthal tweets. The soon-to-be 28-year-old posted a strong 3.01 ERA with 6.0 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 and also recorded a sound 48.8 percent ground-ball rate in 74 1/3 innings of relief across 65 appearances. He’ll again provide some valuable innings for the rebuilding Phillies.
Arbitration Breakdown: Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Kenley Jansen
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
As young fireballers have gotten more opportunity to close, more arbitration cases with few comparables have emerged. Last year, I wrote about such a foursome of closers who had reached second-year arbitration eligibility, and this year I am writing about two of those closers, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, along with Mark Melancon (who I wrote about separately last year). My arbitration model projects each of these pitchers to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM this winter, each of which would break Jim Johnson‘s current record of a $3.88MM raise for a third-year eligible closer.
Depending on how different statistics are weighed, they all have a compelling case to break this record. Johnson’s $3.88MM raise came after he had a 2.49 ERA and 51 saves in 68 2/3 innings, but Johnson struck out just 41 batters that season. He also only had 72 total saves at that point in his career. Although pre-platform performances generally do not matter outside of first-time-eligible arbitration salaries, one large exception I have found is career saves for closers. It is clear that having a history of being a closer matters, which means that Chapman’s 146 career saves, Melancon’s 121 saves, and Jansen’s 142 saves will all help them have better arbitration cases than Johnson did with 72 career saves.
Melancon also had 51 platform-year saves, matching Johnson’s 51 in his platform year in 2012. Along with his 2.23 ERA in 76 2/3 innings, he should have little trouble topping Johnson’s $3.88MM raise after his 2.49 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. Melancon’s $4.6MM projected raise seems about right.
Although Chapman only had 33 platform-year saves, his 1.63 ERA and aforementioned 146 career saves have led him to get an even bigger projected raise than Melancon. His projection actually slightly exceeded the Kimbrel Rule maximum, which is why he is projected for $12.9MM instead of the $13MM figure that was actually forecast by the model. In spite of the lower platform-year save total, Chapman’s vastly superior ERA and greater bulk of career saves give fair reason to assume he will probably get a bigger raise than Melancon, whose case is a straightforward improvement over Jim Johnson’s 2013 case. Both pitchers are likely to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM.
Kenley Jansen is projected to land a $4MM raise, which would just barely top Johnson’s record. Jansen had 36 platform-year saves, but 142 career saves, so he has fewer platform-year saves but almost double Johnson’s career saves. His platform-year ERA (2.41) is a bit better than Johnson’s was, although it came in fewer innings (52 1/3 versus 68 2/3) due to the fact that Jansen opened the season on the disabled list with a foot injury. I could see Jansen failing to make the case that he should get a larger raise than Johnson did, although if Melancon or Chapman set new records, he could easily argue that those are more applicable comparisons.
It is difficult to find pitchers other than Johnson that would apply to this trio of players. Jose Valverde had 44 platform-year saves going into his 2009 case, in which he earned $3.3MM, and he did have 142 career saves. However, his ERA was 3.38. A year prior to that, Francisco Rodriguez had a $2.95MM raise with similar numbers, but that case would be even more stale than Valverde’s. Joel Hanrahan got a $2.94MM raise with 36 saves going into his 2013 case, but he only had 96 career saves at that point. Johnson’s case against appears more applicable for all three of these closers.
Each of these three players could set the market for each other, so their raises are likely to be highly interdependent. They are also likely to set the market for future closers, now that more players will presumably reach their third year of arbitration eligibility with a career of closing behind them. I think that my model probably has appropriately guessed their salaries for 2016, but if it is wrong, it will probably be either too high on all three, or too low on all three.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dodgers, Jordan Schafer Agree To Minor League Deal
TODAY: Schafer will attempt a transition to pitching, according to Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). He was a two-way prospect in high school, and told Ben Badler of Baseball America (back in 2008) that he was far more serious about his future as a hurler before being drafted.
YESTERDAY: The Dodgers and outfielder Jordan Schafer are in agreement on a minor league contract, according to Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Schafer would earn a $1MM salary upon making the Major League roster, he adds. Schafer is represented by Relativity Sports.
Los Angeles already has a glut of outfielders on the 40-man roster, making Schafer a likely depth piece. The 29-year-old spent the end of the 2014 campaign and the early portion of the 2015 season with the Twins, even serving as Minnesota’s Opening Day center fielder this past season. However, after a .285/.347/.362 debut with the Twins over the final couple months of that ’14 season, Schafer struggled to a .217/.250/.261 slash through 74 plate appearances.
Schafer landed on the disabled list in May and was released upon returning to health. Formerly one of the Braves’ top prospects, Schafer is a .228/.308/.307 hitter in the Majors. While he’s never hit much, he does he plenty of speed, having stolen 103 bases in 133 attempts over the course of 463 Major League games (1472 plate appearances).
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Galvis, Hatcher, Alonso, Wilson, Wilhelmsen
We’ll track the day’s lower-priced arbitration agreements right here. For now, there’s only one addition to the list:
- The Phillies and infielder Freddy Galvis have settled on a $2MM salary for the 2016 season in order to avoid arbitration, reports Jon Heyman (on Twitter). Galvis comes in $100K north of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection of $1.9MM. The 26-year-old played in a career-high 151 games this past season and batted .263/.302/.343 with seven homers and 10 steals in 603 plate appearances. He should see the bulk of time at shortstop in Philadelphia this season, although top prospect J.P. Crawford is projected to be the Phillies’ long-term option there.
- Heyman also tweets that the Dodgers have avoided arbitration with right-hander Chris Hatcher. The catcher-turned-reliever will take home a $1.065MM salary, per Heyman, clearing Swartz’s projection of $900K. That makes for a nice birthday present for Hatcher, who turned 31 yesterday and will look to build on a solid season in which he posted a 3.69 ERA with 10.4 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 in 39 innings last season.
Earlier Updates
- The Athletics have agreed to a $2.65MM contract with first baseman Yonder Alonso, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. Alsonso, 28, projected for a $2.5MM salary in his second year of eligibility. Oakland acquired him from the Padres earlier in the winter after he put up a .282/.361/.381 slash in 402 plate appearances last year.
- Justin Wilson and the Tigers have reached a $1.525MM deal for 2016, according to Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The 28-year-old was arb-eligible for the first time this winter after putting up a 3.03 ERA in his first 199 1/3 MLB frames. He receives a nice bump up over the $1.3MM salary that had been projected by MLBTR.
- The Rangers have reached agreement on a $3.1MM salary with recently-acquired reliever Tom Wilhelmsen, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. MLBTR had projected the righty to earn an even $3MM, so he’ll receive a modest increase on that valuation. Texas acquired Wilhelmsen from the Mariners earlier in the offseason. He has worked to a 2.97 ERA, with 8.5 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9, over 312 1/3 career frames in Seattle.
Dodgers Sign Kenta Maeda
JAN. 13: Maeda will earn a base of $3MM in each of the eight seasons of his contract and can earn an additional $8.15MM per year beyond that sum, reports Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (links to Twitter). Maeda’s yearly bonuses kick in at 90 innings pitched, per Passan. From that point forth, he’ll earn $250K for every 10 innings up until 200 innings, according to the report. Maeda will also earn $1MM upon making his 15th, 20th, 25th, 30th and 32nd starts each season. Passan’s report leaves $150K of bonuses each year unaccounted for, so there are a few final missing details to Maeda’s exact contract structure. Ultimately, the contract can max out at a total of $90.2MM over eight seasons.
JAN. 7: The Dodgers have added another significant pitcher, officially signing star Japanese righty Kenta Maeda. It’s quite an unusual contract for the Wasserman Media Group client, whose physical reportedly revealed some issues that could cause health problems down the line.
Maeda, 28, will reportedly receive only a $25MM guarantee over a lengthy eight-year term. Los Angeles will also pay a $20MM posting fee to Maeda’s former NPB club, the Hiroshima Carp. Maeda can also earn up to $10MM annually through incentives tied to the number and length of his starts, maxing out the annual potential at around thirty games started and 200 innings pitched. In the event that all the incentives are triggered, then, the deal’s total value could top $100MM.
Notably, Maeda won’t have the ability to capture upside through other means. Per reports, he can’t opt into arbitration when he reaches sufficient service time and won’t have any opt-out opportunities that would put him onto the open market.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes tabbed Maeda with the 14th-highest earning power coming into the winter in his list of the top fifty free agents. Dierkes predicted Maeda would earn about $60MM (plus the release fee) over five years, matching the overall estimated commitments for Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake. (Both have indeed agreed to five-year deals, with Samardzija getting $90MM and Leake landing at the predicted value.)
Los Angeles has moved to add arms after losing Zack Greinke to the division-rival Diamondbacks and then blowing up a deal with Hisashi Iwakuma after a physical. The club already inked Scott Kazmir yesterday, though that created a rare imbalance, with southpaws Clayton Kershaw, Brett Anderson, and Alex Wood set to be joined by fellow lefty Hyun-jin Ryu when he returns from injury.
Adding Maeda would figure to bump one of those left-handers to the pen — if it doesn’t create some impetus toward a trade. Brandon McCarthy is also set to return from Tommy John surgery at some point during the year, and the organization has depth options in Mike Bolsinger, Carlos Frias, and others. Wood looks like the most likely trade piece, and he could conceivably be packaged with a variety of L.A.’s other interesting assets.
There’s no disputing the quality of Maeda’s work in Japan. Last year’s 2.09 ERA was more or less typical for the veteran righty, as he’s yet to allow over 2.60 earned in any of the last six seasons. While he doesn’t quite have the peripherals or the scouting hype that Masahiro Tanaka did when he came over, Maeda has long been viewed as a MLB-caliber arm.
Certainly, the successful transition of top NPB arms like Tanaka and Yu Darvish — among others before them — reduces the uncertainty regarding Maeda. He’s often been referred to as something of an injury risk, given his small stature, but Maeda has only missed a few starts and has averaged right around two hundred frames annually since becoming a full-time starter.
Maeda is also said to be showing new life with his secondary offerings, as Baseball America’s Ben Badler recently wrote. Per Badler, the righty has shown a new-look changeup that may have surpassed his slider as his best offspeed pitch. While he’s not overpowering in terms of velocity, Maeda has excellent control (1.9 BB/9 in his career) and would obviously hold even more appeal with two swing-and-miss offerings.
Christopher Meola reported the signing on Twitter, as well as its essential contract terms (links to Twitter). Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the precise guarantee (in a tweet), the annual incentive value, and the “red flags” that drove the deal’s unusual structure (Twitter link). ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick first noted the issues in the physical (via Twitter).Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (here and here) and J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group (in a tweet) had additional contract details.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yankees Acquire Tyler Olson, Ronald Torreyes From Dodgers
The Yankees announced that they have acquired left-hander Tyler Olson and infielder Ronald Torreyes from the Dodgers in exchange for minor league infielder Rob Segedin and either a player to be named later or cash considerations. Both Olson and Torreyes had recently been designated for assignment by Los Angeles. With the two new acquisitions, New York’s 40-man roster is full.
Olson, 26, made his big league debut with the Mariners last season, pitching 13 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. The results weren’t particularly encouraging, as he surrendered eight runs on 18 hits and 10 walks, although in one of the more bizarre stats you’ll come across, seven of those 10 walks were intentional in nature. In 54 1/3 Triple-A innings, Olson managed a more palatable 4.47 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. However, after holding lefties to a .206/.280/.279 batting line in 2014, the Gonzaga product yielded a .253/.340/.448 slash to lefties between the Majors and minors in 2015. While the Yankees aren’t hurting for bullpen help, Olson will function as a depth piece behind the likes of Andrew Miller, Jacob Lindgren, Chasen Shreve and James Pazos.
Torreyes, who turned 23 in September, got a brief cup of coffee with L.A. in 2015 — his Major League debut — collecting a pair of hits in six at-bats/eight plate appearances. Torreyes has seen most of his professional defensive work come at second base, though he does have significant experience at shortstop (144 games) and third base (65 games) as well. He’s also seen a bit of time in the corner outfield. This past season, Torreyes batted .261/.308/.347 between Double-A and Triple-A across three organizations: the Astros, Blue Jays and Dodgers. While he’s never shown much pop, Torreyes has hit for average pretty consistently in the minors while displaying the aforementioned defensive versatility. He’s a lifetime .287/.330/.358 hitter at Triple-A and an overall .298/.353/.409 hitter in the minor leagues, making him a reasonable depth pickup for the Yankees.
As for the 27-year-old Segedin, he split this past season between Double-A and Triple-A, batting a combined .287/.360/426 with seven home runs in 284 plate appearances. Segedin saw the bulk of his time at the infield corners, although he has some experience in the outfield corners as well. Segedin wasn’t on the Yankees’ 40-man roster and thus will not need to be placed on L.A.’s 40-man roster. This marks the second minor swap made by the Dodgers today, who earlier traded righty Joe Wieland to the Mariners for another non-40-man minor league infielder (Erick Mejia).
Mariners Acquire Joe Wieland, Designate A.J. Schugel For Assignment
The Mariners and Dodgers announced a relatively minor trade on Thursday that will send right-hander Joe Wieland to Seattle in exchange for minor league infielder Erick Mejia. In order to clear room for Wieland on their 40-man roster, the Mariners have designated fellow righty A.J. Schugel for assignment. From L.A.’s perspective, the departure of Wieland in exchange for a non-40-man player clears way for right-hander Yaisel Sierra, who reportedly agreed to a six-year deal with the Dodgers earlier today.
Wieland, who turns 26 next week, will provide the Mariners with some inexpensive rotation depth. The right-hander has already avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $590K salary with the Dodgers, who opted to give him that marginal raise despite the fact that injuries have limited Wieland to just 47 2/3 innings over his three-plus years of Major League service time. Most notably Wieland underwent Tommy John surgery in 2012 and missed the entire 2013 season.
To this point in his brief and injury-marred Major League career, Wieland has logged just a 5.85 ERA with 6.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 39.4 percent ground-ball rate. He’s fared somewhat better at the Triple-A level, compiling a career 4.34 ERA while pitching exclusively in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Throughout his minor league tenure, Wieland has displayed the ability to miss bats at a reasonable level (8.2 K/9) as well as a knack for keeping the ball in the strike zone (1.9 BB/9). While there doesn’t appear to be an immediate place for him in the Mariner rotation — Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Wade Miley, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton and Nate Karns are all ahead of him on the depth chart — Wieland can function as Triple-A depth or perhaps compete for a slot in the Seattle bullpen.
Mejia, 21, saw action at four levels last year in his age-20 season, batting a combined .282/.346/.339 with 20 stolen bases. He’s shown virtually no power to this point in his pro career, homering just once in 528 plate appearances, though he’s also displayed a solid knowledge of the strike zone, walking at a 10.8 percent clip against a strikeout rate of just 14.8 percent. Mejia didn’t rank among the Mariners’ top 30 prospects according to either MLB.com, but Baseball America did rank him 21st among Seattle farmhands last offseason. In that same offseason, Fangraphs mentioned Mejia as a “player of note” even though he didn’t rank among Seattle’s best prospects, with former FG scribe Kiley McDaniel writing that Mejia was an average runner with “enough glove to stick at short and enough bat that it matters.”
Schugel, 26, posted a 4.84 ERA with 6.2 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in 115 1/3 innings of work for the D-backs’ Triple-A affiliate in Reno this past season. While it’s a notoriously hitter-friendly environment, those results were nonetheless discouraging after a solid 2014 season at the Double-A level. He’d come to the Mariners by way of waiver claim after having been designated for assignment by the D-backs in order to clear a roster spot for Zack Greinke.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports first reported that Wieland had been traded to Seattle (Twitter link).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dodgers Hire Alex Anthopoulos As Vice President
JANUARY 12: The Dodgers have announced Anthopoulos’s hiring as vice president of baseball operations.
JANUARY 5: Former Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos, whose resignation at season’s end shocked many in the baseball world, will join the Dodgers’ front office and work alongside GM Farhan Zaidi, according to multiple reports, including one from Vince Cauchon of Radio X in Quebec, who was the first to report the hiring earlier today (via Twitter). Cauchon seems to imply that a deal is in place, and Jon Heyman tweets that an agreement is being finalized. All told, it seems likely that the team will announce the hire in the near future. Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times writes the move is “expected” to be completed soon, though no specific role has been determined at this point.
The 38-year-old Anthopoulos will become the sixth member of the Dodgers’ front office that is either a current or former GM, joining president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, Zaidi, senior vice president Josh Byrnes, senior advisor Ned Colletti and special advisor Gerry Hunsicker. Byrnes has previously served as the GM of the Padres and D-backs, while Colletti was the Dodgers’ GM before the current regime inherited baseball operations autonomy. Hunsicker spent roughly a decade as the Astros’ GM.
Anthopoulos was named the Sporting News’ executive of the year in 2015 on the heels of a number of high-profile trades that culminated in a division title and ALCS run for the Blue Jays, snapping a 22-year playoff drought in Toronto. The acquisitions of Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki and David Price stand out as perhaps the most memorable trades, but Anthopoulos also acquired LaTroy Hawkins, Mark Lowe and Ben Revere in addition to signing Russell Martin to a five-year contract in the offseason. However, with CEO Paul Beeston set to retire in Toronto, ownership sought a replacement and reportedly offered former Indians GM/president Mark Shapiro final say in baseball operations decisions as a means of luring him to Toronto. That promise is said to have led to Anthopoulos’ resignation, despite the fact that he was offered an extension prior to his departure.
Anthopoulos will add to a growing collection of well-respected baseball minds working to shape the Dodgers, though his specific role remains unclear, as does the number of teams that expressed interest in hiring him. Anthopoulos told the Canadian Press last month that he’d received interest from a variety of teams and media outlets and was expecting to take a job with a team in January. One report even mentioned that the NHL’s Arizona Coyotes had interest in bringing Anthopoulos on board in their front office. That would’ve made him the second notable baseball executive to change sports this month — Paul DePodesta reportedly is leaving the Mets to join the Cleveland Browns’ front office (as explained on MLBTR and on Pro Football Rumors earlier today) — but it seems that Anthopoulos will instead remain in the game with which he has been involved since 2000.
Quick Hits: Bettis, Suspensions, Lazarito, Trades, Frazier
Since the Rockies are lacking in frontline pitching, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post predicts that right-hander Chad Bettis will emerge as the team’s “quasi-ace” in 2016. Youngster Jon Gray is still adapting to the bigs and Jorge De La Rosa‘s age and injury history make him a question mark, and if De La Rosa does pitch well, he may end up leaving in a deadline trade. That leaves the 26-year-old Bettis perhaps in the best position to become Colorado’s top starter. The righty posted a 4.23 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.33 K/BB rate and 49.3% grounder rate over 115 innings last season, his first extended taste of Major League action. There’s a lot to like about Bettis’ potential, though time will tell if he can consistently produce in the notoriously hitter-friendly Coors Field. Here’s more from around baseball…
- Major League Baseball will likely announce any discipline for Aroldis Chapman, Yasiel Puig and Jose Reyes before Spring Training camps open and no later than March 1, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links). The three players all face possible suspensions for recent domestic violence incidents, as per the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy instituted by MLB and the MLBPA last August. The league’s rulings will be closely watched as possible precedent-setters under this new policy. As Rosenthal notes, the policy doesn’t set any minimum or maximum penalties, and it also doesn’t state whether a suspended player would still be eligible to play during Spring Training.
- Sixteen-year-old Cuban outfielder Lazaro Armenteros held a showcase for scouts on January 8th and “early returns…have been mixed at best,” ESPN.com’s Eric Longenhagen tweets. Several sources described Armenteros as “unable to play center field” and “too muscular & stiff,” though he did receive a very good grade of between 6-7 (based on the scouting grading scale of 2-8) on his running. Between 150-200 scouts were expected to attend his showcase, and one veteran scout even cited such names as Willie Mays and Bo Jackson to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale last month in terms of comparable power and speed, though the caveat that Armenteros was still quite “young and raw” in his ability. There has been quite a bit of speculation about the phenom known as “Lazarito,” as this was the first time MLB scouts had been able to see him in any sort of baseball activity since the summer of 2014. It isn’t yet known if Lazarito will be cleared to sign with a Major League team during this international signing period or the next (which begins on July 2).
- “Nobody wants to do a small trade. They only want to talk about big trades,” an executive tells ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). This observation about the current trade market is followed up by Olney in his latest subscription-only column, as he notes that teams are looking to acquire big-name players now since the next two free agent markets are pretty thin on elite talent. As such, Olney lists several big names that executives feel could be major trade targets this summer.
- The White Sox made the single biggest position upgrade of any team this offseason when they dealt for Todd Frazier, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes. Using the Steamer projection system, third base for the White Sox projects to improve by 3.5 WAR from its sub-replacement total in 2015. While Frazier is a fine player, this may be more an indictment of Chicago’s long-time struggles at the hot corner. as Cassavell notes that White Sox third basemen have a cumulative -0.5 WAR over the last five seasons.