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Latest On Kenta Maeda

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2:13pm: The Dodgers are interested in Maeda and are maintaining contact with his representatives in advance of the January 8th deadline, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

12:35pm: The deadline for an MLB team to sign Kenta Maeda is January 8th at 5pm ET/4pm CT, according to Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter).  Meanwhile, MLBTR has learned that the Hiroshima Toyo Carp have set the release fee at $20MM, the maximum allowed by the agreement between MLB and NPB.  Any team willing to meet that $20MM asking price will have the right to negotiate with Maeda over the next couple of weeks.

The question now is, which teams will be making a serious run at Maeda?  We learned recently that the Red Sox will not submit a bid to negotiate with Maeda thanks to the mammoth deal given to David Price.  At the Winter Meetings, Giants GM Bobby Evans told MLBTR that his club had internal conversations about Maeda, but they’re almost certainly out on him after adding Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto.  The Padres will not be in the mix, despite sending a number of club officials to Japan in November.  The Cardinals looked to be one possibility, but they’re probably not considering the Japanese star after inking Mike Leake to a five-year, $80MM deal.

The Dodgers would appear to be a solid fit for Maeda after losing Zack Greinke to free agency and tearing up their agreement with Hisashi Iwaukma.  They have been expected to be among the teams in the hunt for the right-hander, but there hasn’t been any definitive word on that as of late.

Maeda, 28 in April, is widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in Japan. He just wrapped up a season in which he pitched to a 2.09 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 across 206 1/3 innings, marking his sixth consecutive season with an earned run average of 2.60 or better. His excellent 2015 season netted Maeda his second Sawamura Award — Japan’s equivalent to the Cy Young Award. With his relative youth, dominant track record and, of course, lack of draft pick compensation, Maeda immediately becomes one of the more intriguing arms on the free-agent market.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes forecasted a five-year, $60MM deal for Maeda this winter.  When factoring in a release fee of $20MM, that amounts to an $80MM commitment overall.

Rosenthal On Kazmir, A’s, Fernandez, Dodgers

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Re-signing Alex Gordon would help the Royals hedge against other stars possible leaving in the future, but that commitment could also take away the money needed to keep them, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes.  Five notable members of the defending World Champs – Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, and Wade Davis – can hit the open market after the 2017 season.  All five can be costly for KC and that is certainly a consideration for the club as they weigh the Gordon situation.

Here’s more from Rosenthal’s column:

  • The A’s one-year, $4.25MM deal with Henderson Alvarez takes them out of the mix for free agent Scott Kazmir, sources tell Rosenthal.  Alvarez will now compete for a spot in Oakland’s rotation with right-handers Jesse Hahn and Jarrod Parker and left-hander Sean Manaea.  On Monday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale identified the A’s as a finalist for Kazmir alongside the Royals, Orioles, Cardinals, Nationals, and Astros.  Kazmir, 32 in January, recorded a 3.33 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and a 43.4 percent ground-ball rate from 2014-15 — the duration of a two-year, $22MM contract initially signed with Oakland.
  • The Dodgers are staying in touch with the Marlins on Jose Fernandez, but it’s still hard to see a deal taking place, Rosenthal writes.  Unfortunately for the Dodgers and other teams after the young ace, the Marlins’ expectations for a return packing only got higher after the Shelby Miller trade, sources tell Rosenthal.  Of course, that’s saying a lot since the bar has been set high all winter.  high expectations from the start.  Conversely, teams are concerned about how many innings Fernandez will pitch in 2016 and beyond. “Makes it hard to price it correctly for both sides,” one source with knowledge of the Dodgers/Marlins talks said.  For his career, Fernandez has posted a 2.40 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate.  There’s little question that he’s one of the game’s most effective starters, with his low cost and youth making him one of the most intriguing assets in baseball.
  • The Padres sent several club officials to Japan in November, but they won’t be a serious player for right-hander Kenta Maeda, sources tell Rosenthal.  The Padres went to Japan in order to “introduce themselves in a market where they previously had only a minimal presence,” Rosenthal writes, but apparently they were not gunning hard for the Hiroshima Carp star.

West Notes: Dodgers, Blash, Astros

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The Dodgers’ luxury tax bill for the year came to $43.6MM, Ronald Blum of the AP reports. For luxury-tax purposes, the Dodgers had a payroll of $297.9MM. As luxury-tax offenders for the third consecutive year, they were taxed at a 40% rate for the amount by which they exceeded the tax threshold of $189MM. The Yankees, meanwhile, will pay $26.1MM, while the Red Sox owe $1.8MM and the Giants $1.3MM. The $72.8MM between the four teams amounts to the record amount of luxury tax collected in a season, Blum reports. That the Dodgers’ bill was so steep comes as little surprise, of course — their 2015 payroll, headed by large expenditures for players like Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier, was the highest in MLB history. Here’s more from the West divisions.

  • Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune profiles new Padres outfielder Jabari Blash, who the Athletics selected from the Mariners in this month’s Rule 5 Draft and then traded to San Diego. The 26-year-old Blash looked like one of the best potential power sources available in the Rule 5 — he batted .271/.370/.576 and hit 32 homers between Double-A Jackson and Triple-A Tacoma in 2015. Interestingly, Blash grew up in the Virgin Islands, and one of the first offers of congratulations he received was from Callix Crabbe, a former infielder from the Virgin Islands who the Padres selected in the Rule 5 Draft in 2007.
  • The surprising package the Astros gave up to get Ken Giles from the Phillies reflects an industry-wide trend in which relievers capable of pitching high-leverage innings are valued more highly, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle writes. The Astros gave up Vincent Velasquez and Mark Appel in the Giles deal. They re-signed another reliever, Tony Sipp, to a hefty three-year, $18MM contract. The belief that good relievers are fundamentally less valuable than good starting pitchers or position players has long been widely held, but perhaps that’s changing, at least to a degree. “You’d have to say that as an industry, we’re valuing a team that’s in contention needs to have those guys at the back end of the bullpen,” says Astros GM Jeff Luhnow. “We’ve seen what the Royals have been able to do with a successful execution of that strategy, and the Mets with (Jeurys) Familia, and there’s good late-inning relievers on the teams that make it to and win in the playoffs.”

Dodgers Notes: Cueto, Friedman, Chapman

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Here’s a look at the Dodgers:

  • In an interview with MLB Network Radio, agent Bryce Dixon said that the Dodgers were in on Johnny Cueto “up until the last couple days” (Twitter links via Jon Morosi of FOX Sports).  Dixon thought that Cueto would have been a “real good fit” for the Dodgers, but, in the end, the Giants made the stronger offer.  At the Winter Meetings in Nashville (before a deal was struck with the Giants) Dixon told MLBTR that he thought Cueto could help form a strong rotation alongside Clayton Kershaw in Los Angeles.
  • Mark Whicker of the Los Angeles Daily News isn’t sure that he understands Andrew Friedman’s plan for the Dodgers.  He doesn’t feel that Friedman has made unwise deals, but he also doesn’t feel that Friedman’s moves fit together well.  Whicker is also concerned about the Dodgers’ lack of a clear No. 2 next to Kershaw after the departure of Greinke and Cueto signing with the Giants.  He opines that landing Jose Fernandez from the Marlins would be the best way to fill the No. 2 spot in the rotation and also supports the idea of trading for Rays hurler Jake Odorizzi, something L.A. has explored.
  • The Dodgers are damned if the do and damned if they don’t, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes.  If the Dodgers retained Zack Greinke, signed Hisashi Iwakuma, and dealt for Aroldis Chapman, they’d get slammed for spending too much.  Now that they haven’t made those moves (for different reasons), some folks are critical of what they view as inaction on the part of Los Angeles’ front office.  “I remind the thin-skinned people in front offices of the smart words Hyman Roth gave Michael Corleone in that hotel room in Havana — ‘This is the business we have chosen,’ ” Dodgers president Stan Kasten said by phone. “The criticism and fishbowl scrutiny is just part of the business. … I am really proud to represent a team that has won 90 games and the division title [each of the last three years]. Yet, that is not good enough for our fans, the media, ownership and me. That is the way it should be. We are the Dodgers, we represent Los Angeles. We should expect to compete for the top every year. Criticism is what goes along with that, which is just fine.”

NL West Notes: Rockies, Cueto, Dodgers

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The Rockies have made a few small moves this offseason, but they haven’t yet addressed their rotation, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. It’s unclear where the Rockies will go from here, Saunders writes — a deal with the Indians might have made at least a bit of sense, although, via ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider-only), the Indians don’t appear to see any urgent need to deal Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar. A trade with the Rays might be a possibility, but the Rays have already been connected to a number of other teams (including, today, the Cardinals). And as was reported yesterday, the Rockies weren’t able to get Kevin Gausman from the Orioles in return for Carlos Gonzalez. Here’s more from the NL West.

  • Giants GM Bobby Evans says his team’s MRI of Johnny Cueto’s elbow “looked great,” Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area tweets. Cueto had a flexor strain last season, but it appears to be healed. It sounds, then, like the Cueto’s physical exam reassured the Giants that their $130MM commitment to him was the right move.
  • The Dodgers’ end of the three-way Todd Frazier trade (in which they received youngsters Frankie Montas, Micah Johnson and Trayce Thompson) added talent to the organization, but their return also initially appeared a bit puzzling given that they presumably plan to compete in 2016. The deal might, however, be part of a broader plan to add talent that they can use to acquire veterans, Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles writes. That could mean they trade for a young starter like Jose Fernandez or Sonny Gray. As Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times recently tweeted, top Dodgers exec Andrew Friedman answered affirmatively when asked if the Frazier deal made him feel better about dealing prospects. “Obviously, we’re having a lot of conversations that involve us potentially trading some prospects in different-type scenarios,” says Friedman. “This wasn’t necessarily directed at that, but it’s connected in the same way every move we make has some connection. Expanding our talent base is helpful on multiple fronts.”
  • Dave Cameron of Fangraphs , meanwhile, suggests a package that the Dodgers could use to land Chris Archer of the Rays. Such a deal could conceivably be based around young Dodgers infielder Corey Seager, with the deal also potentially including someone like Rays reliever Jake McGee. Cameron notes that the Dodgers would be reluctant to part with Seager, but, of course, the Rays would be reluctant to part with Archer as well, and the two teams have plenty to offer one another.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Todd Frazier Trade

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It’s been a busy week at MLBTR, and we’re just now catching up on some reactions to one of the week’s major moves: the three-team deal in which the White Sox received star third baseman Todd Frazier from the Reds. The Reds, of course, got infielders Jose Peraza and Brandon Dixon and outfielder Scott Schebler from the Dodgers, while the Dodgers received righty Frankie Montas, infielder Micah Johnson and outfielder Trayce Thompson from Chicago.

  • The Reds got surprisingly little in return for Frazier, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Peraza, the key to the Reds’ end of the trade, is a potentially terrific defender at second base and a very fast baserunner, but he’s coming off an underwhelming season and doesn’t have much in the way of power or patience. Schebler, meanwhile, merely looks like a potential fourth outfielder, and Dixon might not even be a significant prospect. The White Sox did very well in the deal, Law writes, and the Dodgers got good value, although it’s unclear why they didn’t just acquire Frazier themselves, since they had what the Reds evidently wanted.
  • MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, meanwhile, wonders why the Reds didn’t just cut the three-team deal off at the pass and trade directly with the White Sox, who gave up three young players who appear to be better than the ones the Reds ultimately got.
  • After adding Frazier and Brett Lawrie, the White Sox could continue to make moves, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. They could deal outfielder Avisail Garcia or first baseman Adam LaRoche if they can find a trade partner, and dealing one of those two players could conceivably allow them to sign Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton. (I’d counter that Garcia, who projects to make just $2.3MM next season, shouldn’t be a significant obstacle to signing Cespedes or Upton if that’s really what the White Sox want to do, and that it should be difficult for the team to clear much of LaRoche’s salary in a trade.) The Dodgers, meanwhile, could now use their collection of prospects to trade for Jose Fernandez, or failing that, someone like Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, Sonny Gray or Tyson Ross.
  • The White Sox expressed interest in Frazier at the beginning of the offseason, Reds GM Dick Williams tells MLB Network Radio (link to audio). The Reds and White Sox did have discussions about a two-team trade, but the Reds preferred the package of players the Dodgers brought to the table. Williams adds that one factor in the deal was the strength of their competition in the NL Central, which meant that their best chance of success was to gather prospects and build a team that could be successful “a couple of years” from now. Williams also notably says that teams have continued to discuss with him the possibility of trading for Aroldis Chapman despite the domestic violence accusations against Chapman.

Dodgers Designate Danny Reynolds For Assignment

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In announcing their recent acquisition of lefty Tyler Olson from the Mariners, the Dodgers also announced that they had designated righty Danny Reynolds for assignment. Reynolds’ time in the Dodgers organization has been brief, as they claimed him from the Angels less than two weeks ago.

The 24-year-old Reynolds spent the 2015 season pitching in relief with the Angels’ Double-A Arkansas affiliate, and he struggled with his control, posting a 4.57 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 5.8 BB/9 after earning a place on the Angels’ 40-man roster with a better campaign the previous season. Most reports indicate, however, that Reynolds’ fastball plays very well in relief, reaching into the high 90s.

Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Kazmir, Dee Gordon, Clippard, Holliday, Padres, Astros

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There are a host of interesting notes in the latest column from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Here are some of the highlights:

  • While the Royals are still interested in free agent starters Yovani Gallardo and Scott Kazmir, as has previously been reported, the club may be most intrigued by Wei-Yin Chen, per Heyman. Kansas City would have to go well beyond its usual spending levels to add the southpaw, but Heyman writes that the club has newfound budget “flexibility” in the midst of its renaissance. Chen, though, is represented by Scott Boras, with whom the Royals have a strong relationship. (Kendrys Morales, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Rios and Franklin Morales are among the current or recent Royals to be Boras clients.)
  • Kazmir already has multiple three-year offers with guarantees in the range of $12MM to $13MM annually, per the report, with teams like the Athletics, Orioles, and Dodgers said to be involved. It seems like the first legitimate four-year offer could land Kazmir, Heyman adds. Of course, it’s unclear if the A’s will still be in the hunt if and when their reported one-year deal with righty Henderson Alvarez is finalized.
  • Meanwhile, the Royals are still pursuing Alex Gordon, but Heyman reports that the team’s initial four-year offer was not met with a very promising response from Gordon’s camp. It’s been surprisingly quiet on the Gordon front for much of the offseason, although with Jason Heyward off the board, it’s easy to imagine the market for him and fellow corner outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton picking up quickly.
  • The Royals are holding extension discussions with backstop Salvador Perez, says Heyman, and there’s interest from team and player in reaching “something equitable.” But K.C. has all the leverage, of course, given its already lengthy and cheap control rights over the sturdy young catcher. Heyman adds that Perez’s representatives have raised the extensions of players like Troy Tulowitzki, Evan Longoria, and Ryan Braun in talks, with the Royals not favorably disposed to those concepts. (An observation: those deals certainly don’t seem all that relevant from where I sit. Perez is an excellent player, but hasn’t reached the heights of those stars, and his current contract is far cheaper than the ones Longoria and Braun turned into new deals. Also, as a heavily-worked, large-framed catcher, there are questions about how wise it would be to make a long-term investment in Perez.)
  • The Marlins have continued their extension talks with Dee Gordon, and Heyman says that Miami has put a five-year deal on the table. But Gordon and his reps are looking for seven seasons in an extension. The talks are moving slowly, but still moving, per Heyman.
  • While the Mets do have legitimate interest in Tyler Clippard, they only want him with a one-year guarantee, per Heyman. Clippard is looking for a two-year deal he adds. It certainly seems that the veteran’s market is lagging the rest of the top-end set-up men who hit free agency this year. That could be due to a combination of his heavy recent workload and sub-par peripherals last year, but Clippard should still find a significant contract given his lengthy track record and the high dollars we’ve seen given to inferior arms.
  • Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday has been working out at first base, with the veteran looking to extend his career by adding defensive versatility. While that’s been done at Holliday’s initiative, Heyman wonders whether the hypothetical possibility of a move could keep St. Louis involved in the hunt for Gordon.
  • The Padres seem unlikely to put together a big offer for Ian Desmond. That would certainly be bad news for the free agent, whose market has yet to develop, as San Diego seems like one of the best fits. The Pads are not getting a lot of interest in James Shields at present and have put a high price on Tyson Ross, per the report. Meanwhile, the club is considering a move for veteran reliever Fernando Rodney.
  • The Astros aren’t done with their bullpen and remain in the market for relievers as well as a corner bat, Heyman writes. Houston non-tendered Chris Carter, and A.J. Reed probably won’t be ready to begin the season, so there does indeed appear to be room for someone capable of taking some at-bats at first base (although Jon Singleton could be given another look there as well).
  • We’ve heard chatter that the Orioles and Rockies have had some talks regarding outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, and Heyman says that Colorado asked for young righty Kevin Gausman in a deal. That was, unsurprisingly, a non-starter for Baltimore. The O’s, meanwhile, tried to get Andre Ethier from the Dodgers last offseason, and Heyman wonders whether another such effort could take place this year as the club continues to hunt for another left-handed-hitting outfielder (per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, on Twitter).
  • The Indians had talks with free agent Austin Jackson before signing Rajai Davis, per Heyman. He adds that there are legitimate concerns that Michael Brantley will be out into June “or perhaps even later” after some undisclosed new shoulder “issue” arose this winter.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Dodgers Talking With Rays, Indians On Starters

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TODAY: The Dodgers are also talking with the Indians about Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Those two names have long been in play, of course, but it’s notable that Los Angeles is back in discussions after seeing several other moves fall through in recent weeks.

Cleveland is not in any rush to deal its starters, as the front office has continued to emphasize in public statements and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney explained earlier today. But the club still seems entirely willing to talk about its power arms, and certainly seems amenable to trading them in the right scenario.

YESTERDAY, 6:15pm: ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that there’s a good deal of buzz in the industry that the Dodgers could look to a trade with the Rays in their quest for rotation upgrades. Odorizzi’s name is generating more speculation than most, he notes, although Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times spoke to several sources and got the sense that there’s nothing imminent between the two teams at this time (Twitter link).

1:02pm: The Dodgers are in talks with the Rays regarding Jake Odorizzi, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter).  The Dodgers’ three-year, $45MM agreement with Hisashi Iwakuma could be up in the air and it’s possible that the Dodgers are weighing their alternatives.

Odorizzi, 26 in March, has pitched well for the Rays in each of the past two seasons, though he missed some time in 2015 due to an oblique strain and was thus limited to 169 1/3 innings. Odorizzi doesn’t throw particularly hard, averaging about 91 mph with his fastball, but he’s shown an ability to pick up strikeouts at an above-average clip nonetheless. Over his past 337 1/3 innings (2014-15), Odorizzi has a 3.74 ERA with 8.6 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. A pronounced fly-ball pitcher, Odorizzi does have a rather low 33.5 percent ground-ball rate in that time.

Earlier this month, it was reported that the Rays were in extension talks with the right-hander.  Odorizzi’s agent referred to the proposal as a “very nice initial offer,” which suggested that while there was a good starting point, nothing was imminent on that front either.  Odorizzi is not yet arbitration eligible and won’t be until next offseason. He’s controllable for another four years, so it stands to reason that the Rays would like a significant haul to part with him.  Of course, after Wednesday’s three-way deal, the Dodgers are sitting pretty in terms of prospects, so they can afford to make a strong offer to the Rays.

Details On Jonathan Papelbon’s Current No-Trade List

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DECEMBER 18: That list was apparently the one in effect for 2015, as Crasnick now provides a list that, he says, will be in effect for the year to come. It is the same as the prior iteration except for four changes.

On this new list, the Braves, Reds, Royals, and Mariners have moved into the group of teams to which Papelbon can reject a trade. Meanwhile, the Giants, Phillies, Tigers, and Yankees are now among the clubs to which Papelbon may freely be dealt, without his authorization.

DECEMBER 15: Nationals reliever Jonathan Papelbon has the right to name 17 clubs to which he cannot be traded without his consent, and ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on this year’s list.

Papelbon can block deals to the following clubs: the Athletics, Blue Jays, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Indians, Marlins, Orioles, Phillies, Pirates, Rangers, Rockies, Tigers, Twins, White Sox and Yankees. The league’s remaining teams can acquire the controversial veteran without his approval.

No-trade lists tend to reflect both personal preferences and strategic considerations. It’s hard to know the precise motivations here, but it’s worth remembering that Papelbon has previously made good use of his no-trade rights in exerting leverage. In approving the trade that sent him to D.C. last year, Papelbon received assurances he’d be used as the closer and picked up a guarantee of his 2016 option (though that would have vested anyway and he took a discount to facilitate the move).

While an exceedingly public spat with star Bryce Harper has led to wide speculation that Papelbon will be dealt, Nats GM Mike Rizzo has maintained that the team won’t simply cut him loose for whatever it can get. Papelbon is neither cheap ($11MM) nor young (35), but he’s continued to produce quality results and represents a fair value from a pure baseball perspective.

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