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Poll: Who Will Win The NLCS?

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The Dodgers punched their ticket to the NLCS last night. Solo home runs from Enrique Hernández and Teoscar Hernández were enough to push L.A. to a 2-0 victory over the Padres in the rubber match of their Division Series. The Dodgers blanked San Diego in consecutive games to take the series in five.

They’ll welcome the Mets to Dodger Stadium tomorrow. New York has waited for its destination since finishing off the Phillies in four games on Wednesday. Almost no one would’ve seen this coming when the Mets bottomed out at 11 games under .500. The nadir of their season coincidentally came at the hands of the Dodgers, who swept New York at Citi Field to drop them to 22-33 in late May. The Mets caught fire after that, playing above .500 ball in each of the final four months of the season.

L.A. and New York closed the regular season as the hottest teams in the National League. Their 20-10 record over their final 30 games tied them with the Tigers for best in MLB. The Dodgers secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs by finishing with an MLB-leading 98 wins. New York clawed back to 89 wins and clinched a Wild Card spot on the last day of the regular season. They’ve had a flair for the dramatic in October, coming from behind in four of their five playoff wins.

Both teams have already come back from the edge of elimination. The Mets needed Pete Alonso’s ninth-inning heroics against Devin Williams to escape the Wild Card series in Milwaukee. The Dodger pitching staff silenced San Diego’s bats in consecutive elimination games in the Division Series.

New York has the slight benefit of two extra days of rest. They’ve had three off days since their last game, while the Dodgers get one rest day before starting the series. Each team’s entire bullpen should be in play for Game 1. The Mets will have their rotation outside of Jose Quintana on regular or extended rest at the beginning of the series. The Dodgers turned to Yoshinobu Yamamoto for five scoreless innings last night. They used a bullpen game on Wednesday.

Neither team has revealed a probable starter for Game 1, but the Dodgers are almost certain to turn the ball to Jack Flaherty before going with Walker Buehler in Monday’s Game 2. The Mets could turn in a few different directions. They have Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Kodai Senga all ready to go. Andy Martino of SNY tweeted yesterday that Senga was likely to get the ball in Game 1, though the Mets won’t finalize that decision until today. The righty is on tight workloads after losing the second half of the season to a calf injury. He’ll probably be limited to two or three innings before turning the ball over to the bullpen. Senga threw two innings and 31 pitches in Game 1 of the NLDS, his first appearance since late July.

The teams have until tomorrow morning to finalize their rosters for the series. The Mets could have an important change. Jeff McNeil has been on the injured list for over a month with a right wrist fracture. Manager Carlos Mendoza said a couple days ago that McNeil had a good chance to be activated. The left-handed hitter started what’ll hopefully be a two-game stint in the Arizona Fall League last night to readjust to game speed.

McNeil made it through the first game with no issues, he told reporters last night (link via Jesse Borek and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). While the Mets probably won’t make the decision until tomorrow, it seems McNeil will be active. That’d probably push Luisangel Acuña off the roster unless the Mets decide to drop to 12 pitchers despite the longer series.

On the Dodgers’ side, the main injury to monitor concerns reliever Alex Vesia. (There’s also the ongoing question about Freddie Freeman’s ankle but no doubt that Freeman will be on the roster.) Vesia entered with two outs in the seventh inning last night. The left-hander fanned Jackson Merrill to end the inning. He came back out for the eighth but reported soreness in his right side while warming up. The Dodgers lifted him for Michael Kopech, who combined with Blake Treinen to close out the game.

Manager Dave Roberts said postgame that Vesia would go for an MRI today (X link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). The team is hopeful that the discomfort was just a cramp but wants to rule out an oblique injury. If Vesia did tweak his oblique, that’d probably shut him down for the season. Anthony Banda was the only other left-hander in Roberts’ bullpen for the Division Series. Justin Wrobleski and Zach Logue are the other healthy southpaws on the 40-man roster. Nick Ramirez remains in the organization but was outrighted last month and seems unlikely to be considered for a playoff spot.

How will the NLCS play out? Which team is headed to the World Series, and how competitive will this series be?

What Will Be The Result Of The NLCS?
Mets in 6. 30.27% (2,923 votes)
Dodgers in 6. 29.98% (2,895 votes)
Dodgers in 5. 11.87% (1,146 votes)
Mets in 7. 11.20% (1,081 votes)
Mets in 5. 6.97% (673 votes)
Dodgers in 7. 5.50% (531 votes)
Dodgers in 4. 2.42% (234 votes)
Mets in 4. 1.78% (172 votes)
Total Votes: 9,655

 

10 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com log.

Outfielders

Pitchers

No Extension Talks To Date Between Dodgers, Teoscar Hernandez

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The Dodgers have not had any in-season extension discussions with Teoscar Hernández, the slugger told reporters before tonight’s possible elimination game (X link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). Hernández doesn’t seem bothered by the lack of talks, saying that he’s focused on the season and hasn’t given free agency much thought.

Hernández has had a fantastic rebound on a pillow contract. He drilled a career-high 33 home runs through 652 plate appearances. His .272/.339/.501 slash was back to the form he showed during his peak years with the Blue Jays. His middling .258/.305/.435 line with the Mariners from 2023 looks like an anomaly — one driven by his struggles at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly home park.

That down year with the Mariners dealt a huge hit to Hernández’s market a year ago. He clearly didn’t find a multi-year deal that was to his liking. He disclosed the terms of one offer he received, telling Rob Bradford of WEEI in July that the Red Sox had proposed a two-year, $28MM deal. Hernández wasn’t interested in locking in multiple seasons at a diminished $14MM average annual value. He signed with Los Angeles for a total of $23.5MM, though he only collected $15MM this year. The remaining $8.5MM will be paid in 10 installments between 2030-39.

Hernández’s bet on himself paid off. He’ll return to free agency in a better position than he was last season. The Dodgers can make him a qualifying offer. He’d very likely decline that $21MM+ salary in search of a long-term deal. Hernández turns 32 next month, so he’ll probably be limited to three or at most four years. That could come at something like the $20MM average annual value which players like Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos received as free agents. Hernández is probably the third-best outfielder in the class behind Juan Soto and Anthony Santander.

[Related: Previewing The 2024-25 Corner Outfield Class]

Gives Hernández’s productivity, it stands to reason the Dodgers will make some effort to retain the two-time All-Star whenever the season concludes. They could balk at paying market price on a multi-year deal running into his mid-30s, though. Shohei Ohtani’s presence means the Dodgers would need to commit to playing Hernández in left field for the entirety of the contract. L.A. moved Mookie Betts back to right field when he returned from injury in early August. They’ve used deadline pickup Tommy Edman as their primary center fielder.

They’ll want to keep a long-term outfield spot available for Andy Pages. The 23-year-old played mostly center field as a rookie. Prospect evaluators have generally projected Pages to a corner, which is supported by the middling defensive grades (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -1 Outs Above Average) he posted in center. The Dodgers have toyed with playing top catching prospect Dalton Rushing more frequently in left field. Barring an injury to Will Smith, there’s no path to regular playing time for Rushing behind the plate in Los Angeles.

Ben Casparius Replaces Michael Grove On Dodgers’ NLDS Roster

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The Dodgers and Major League Baseball both announced an injury-related substitution on Los Angeles’ NLDS roster.  Right-hander Michael Grove has been removed in favor of fellow righty Ben Casparius.  No specifics were given on Grove’s injury within the press release, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including David Vassegh of 570 AM Radio) that Grove is dealing with a shoulder injury.

Grove came out of the bullpen in Sunday’s Game 2, and he allowed a Xander Bogaerts solo homer before striking out Jake Cronenworth to end the top of the eighth inning.  These were Grove’s only two batters faced, and while the inning break seemed like the reason for his removal from the game, it could be that his shoulder problem necessitated another pitching change.  With the Dodgers down 7-1 after eight innings, a healthy Grove might’ve eaten one more inning of mop-up work.

Working as a starter, reliever, and swingman since his MLB debut in 2022, Grove has a 5.48 ERA over 149 1/3 career innings in the majors, including a 5.12 ERA in 51 frames in 2024.  His secondary numbers paints a somewhat more promising picture than his ERA, though Grove has hurt his cause by being a little homer-prone.  Injuries have also been a factor, as he has missed time in each of the two seasons with lat-related issues, as well as a groin strain that sidelined him for about six weeks of the 2023 campaign.  The Dodgers have also liberally moved Grove up and down between the majors and Triple-A, so he hasn’t had a ton of time to settle into a big league role.

League rules dictate that if a team makes an injury substitution on a series roster, the injured player is also ineligible for the following series.  Grove therefore isn’t able to play in the NLCS if the Dodgers advance past the Padres, though his health is the larger concern in general, given the ominous nature of shoulder-related discomfort.  Los Angeles has already had to navigate a ton of pitching injuries throughout the season and into October, so Grove’s absence leaves the club short another arm.

It does provide quite the opportunity for Casparius, who only just made his big league debut back on August 31.  A fifth-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2021 draft, Casparius has pitched in all of three MLB games, and he has a 2.16 ERA and an impressive 32.4% strikeout rate over 8 1/3 innings.  He also has a 10.8% walk rate, which tracks with the rather so-so control Casparius exhibited over four minor league seasons.  The Dodgers aren’t likely to use Casparius in any high-leverage situations during the NLDS, and it is possible he doesn’t see any action at all in the series barring another lopsided score.

In other notable injury news for L.A., Freddie Freeman is in tonight’s starting lineup for Game 3.  Freeman’s attempts to play through a severe left ankle sprain and bone bruise seemed to take a downturn when he made an early exit from Game 2, but Roberts told reporters (including Sportnet’s Hazel Mae) that Freeman completed his pregame preparations without issue.  “It’s a go as of now….unless I hear otherwise, he’s going to be in there,” Roberts said.

Poll: Who Will Win The NL Division Series?

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Monday is a travel day for the National League. Both series are knotted up 1-1 as they head to the homes of the lower seeds. Nick Castellanos’ walk-off hit capped off a back-and-forth affair in Philadelphia yesterday, squaring things with the Mets. The Padres had a much more convincing (but still drama-filled) beatdown of the Dodgers to tie that series.

The latter has a couple health situations to monitor. Freddie Freeman and Xander Bogaerts each departed yesterday’s game. Bogaerts’ absence was on accounting of hamstring cramping and came after the Padres had taken a six-run lead. That seemed precautionary at the time, and skipper Mike Shildt said today that the team’s belief is that it was simply a result of dehydration (X link via Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Freeman has had a bigger problem, playing through a sprained right ankle. L.A. manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic) this evening that Freeman was receiving treatment; his status for tomorrow’s game remains uncertain.

San Diego looks to have the distinctive edge from a pitching perspective for Game 3. They’ll turn to righty Michael King, owner of a 2.95 ERA in the regular season. Los Angeles counters with the scuffling Walker Buehler, who allowed more than five earned runs per nine this year after returning from his second career Tommy John surgery.

Neither team has named a starter for Game 4. Shildt kept open the possibility of turning back to Game 1 starter Dylan Cease on short rest on Wednesday (X link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). They’d presumably only do that if they lose tomorrow and are facing elimination in Game 4. Roberts has already shot down the possibility of bringing his Game 1 starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, back on short rest. That very likely leaves L.A. to turn to rookie Landon Knack in the fourth game.

There’s more clarity on the pitching plans in the NL’s other series. The pair of NL East rivals have already named starters for both games that’ll take place in Queens. It’s a matchup between Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea tomorrow. They’ve both had good seasons, though Manaea was a bit better than Nola was down the stretch.

It’ll be a pair of southpaws on Wednesday. Philadelphia turns to Ranger Suárez, while the Mets counter with José Quintana. Quintana followed up a brilliant September with six scoreless innings to help keep the Mets alive in the rubber match of their Wild Card series in Milwaukee. Suárez has yet to pitch this postseason. He’s generally as good as any fourth starter in MLB. Suárez looked as if he’d even be in the Cy Young conversation early in the year, but he was hit hard in September after losing a month to a back injury. He finished the season with a 3.46 ERA through 150 2/3 innings.

Philadelphia will have Zack Wheeler in reserve if the series goes to a decider. New York is expected to counter in a potential Game 5 with Kodai Senga, who managed two innings on 31 pitches in his return from the 60-day injured list last week.

Which two teams will punch their ticket to the NLCS later this week?

What Will Be The Result Of LAD/SD?
Padres in 5. 39.05% (3,485 votes)
Padres in 4. 32.72% (2,920 votes)
Dodgers in 5. 23.80% (2,124 votes)
Dodgers in 4. 4.44% (396 votes)
Total Votes: 8,925

 

What Will Be The Result Of PHI/NYM?
Phillies in 5. 40.99% (3,239 votes)
Mets in 5. 27.08% (2,140 votes)
Mets in 4. 19.75% (1,561 votes)
Phillies in 4. 12.17% (962 votes)
Total Votes: 7,902

 

Freddie Freeman, Xander Bogaerts Leave NLDS Game 2 Due To Injuries

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The Padres hit six home runs in what turned into a rout of a 10-2 victory in Game 2 of their NLDS matchup with the Dodgers, knotting the series 1-1 as the scene shifts to San Diego for Games 3 and 4 on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Neither club emerged from Game 2 unscathed, however, as both Freddie Freeman (left ankle discomfort) and Xander Bogaerts (hamstring cramp) made early exits due to injury.

Freeman’s exit is the less surprising of the two, as the first baseman’s attempts to play through both a bone bruise and a sprain of his left ankle has become one of the series’ chief storylines.  After going 2-for-5 and even stealing a base in the Dodgers’ Game 1 victory, Freeman went 0-for-2 tonight before he was replaced in the field heading into the top of the sixth.  Freeman was due up to the plate again in the bottom of the sixth and L.A. was trailing only 3-1 after five innings, yet he was clearly not feeling well enough to continue playing.  Post-game, manager Dave Roberts told Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link) and other reporters that the team would know more about Freeman’s status after working out tomorrow during the club’s off-day.

Freeman suffered what was initially diagnosed as just an ankle sprain on September 26, in the Dodgers’ fourth-last game of the regular season.  X-rays were negative, but Freeman revealed to reporters that the combination of the sprain and the bone bruise would normally sideline him for 4-to-6 weeks if this was the regular season.  However, on just eight full days of rest, Freeman returned to the field in Game 1, though it wasn’t clear until just a few hours before game time if the first baseman would indeed be ready to go.

Bogaerts seemingly suffered his injury while hitting a foul ball during his plate appearance in the eighth inning, yet the shortstop seemingly looked no worse for wear in hitting a solo homer.  The Padres ended the frame with a 7-1 lead, which perhaps gave the club a little more flexibility to replace Bogaerts in the field with Tyler Wade in the top of the eighth.

Monday is an off-day in the series, so Freeman and Bogaerts will get some built-in time to recuperate before play resumes.  While Bogaerts’ cramp doesn’t seem overly serious, Wade is the natural replacement at shortstop if Bogaerts isn’t ready for Tuesday’s Game 3.  If Bogaerts can hit but not field, the Padres can use Wade at shortstop, Luis Arraez at first base, and Bogaerts could conceivably act as the designated hitter.

Shohei Ohtani’s presence in the DH spot gives the Dodgers no such flexibility with Freeman, as he’d have to play first base if he is to be part of the team’s starting lineup.  If he can’t start, Freeman would therefore seemingly be limited to pinch-hit duty, which then necessitates a larger shuffle of the Dodgers’ lineup.  Obviously losing Freeman under any circumstance is bad news for Los Angeles, but losing a key left-handed bat will hamper the Dodgers against Game 3 starter Michael King (a right-hander), and L.A. is lacking in left-handed bench depth.

As a reminder, teams can make injury replacements to a series roster, but at a significant longer-term cost.  Replaced players would not only be out for the rest of the NLDS, but they also wouldn’t be able to participate in the NLCS if their team was to advance to the next round.  This rule is surely weighing on the Dodgers in particular as they figure out Freeman’s status, though it would seem as if Freeman would have to have seriously re-aggravated his injury for L.A. to remove him from the roster altogether.

NL Notes: Adames, Braves, Giants, Francona, Yamamoto

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Willy Adames has long been mentioned in trade rumors, with the Dodgers one club known to have had past interest in the star shortstop.  It is fair to guess that any number of teams at least checked in with the Brewers about Adames’ availability, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman (via X) writes that the Braves and Giants also had Adames as a “target” in the past.  As Adames is now set to become a free agent this winter, any of these teams could well be suitors again on the open market, though naturally a free agent pursuit and a trade pursuit can be very different endeavors.

Atlanta shortstop Orlando Arcia had a dismal year at the plate after posting solid numbers in 2022-23.  Arcia is still under contract for 2025 but only for $2MM (and a $1MM buyout of a $2MM club option for 2026), so the Braves could sign Adames and still keep Arcia around as veteran infield depth.  With Adames likely to command a contract in the $150MM range, signing the shortstop would represent something of a departure for Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, whose free agent signings have been fairly limited during his seven seasons running Atlanta’s front office.  Still, a more aggressive foray into free agency might be seen as necessary after three straight playoff disappointments, and Anthopoulos certainly hasn’t been shy about spending in general, as evidenced by the Braves’ heavy slate of contract extensions.

Tyler Fitzgerald hit well in his rookie season but was a subpar defender as the Giants’ primary shortstop in 2024.  That said, Fitzgerald has played at six different positions during his two years in the big leagues, so it is easy to see San Francisco shift him to another spot on the diamond to accommodate Adames.  The Giants have long been eager to bring top-tier free agents to the roster, and with Matt Chapman already signed to a new contract, adding Adames would give the team arguably the league’s best left side of the infield.  Landing Adames (or another big name) would be an easy way for Buster Posey to make a splash in his first offseason as the Giants’ new president of baseball ops.

More from around the National League….

  • The Reds’ hiring of Terry Francona came together quickly, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that president of baseball operations Nick Krall first touched base with Francona via a phone conversation on September 26.  Krall had gotten permission from the Guardians to speak with Francona (who was still with the team in a special assistant role), as Francona was atop the Reds’ list of nearly 100 possible managerial candidates but “with an asterisk,” depending on the longtime skipper’s health and whether he wanted to return after a year away from the sport.  Krall and GM Brad Meador met with Francona in Tucson on October 2, and were impressed enough to call owner Bob Castellini to fly to Tucson the next day to finalize the contract.  In other details on the managerial search, interim manager Freddie Benavides had put himself on the Reds’ short list with an excellent set of interviews, and Rangers associate manager Will Venable was also on the list of top targets.  It appears as though Benavides might’ve been the only other candidate to actually interview, as Francona’s emergence precluded the Reds’ need to speak with Venable, or other rumored candidates as David Ross or Skip Schumaker.
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto was rocked for five runs over three innings in Game 1 of the NLDS last night, though the Dodgers came back for a 7-5 win over the Padres.  Manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) that the Dodgers were exploring the possibility that Yamamoto was tipping his pitches when runners were on base, and Ardaya notes that Yamamoto had a similar pitch-tipping issue during Spring Training.  Or, the problem might just be that the Padres have Yamamoto’s number, as they tagged him for eight runs over six innings in two starts during the regular season.  Either scenario is naturally a concern for L.A. in the rest of the series, and Roberts only said Yamamoto was “in play” to pitch during a potential Game 5, if not necessarily as a starter.

NL Postseason Notes: McNeil, Marte, Edman, Freeman

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The Mets could potentially get a big boost to their lineup if they advance to the NLCS. Manager Carlos Mendoza revealed to reporters (including Tim Britton of The Athletic) that Jeff McNeil will join the team’s taxi squad today, two days after welcoming his second child. The second baseman/corner outfielder has not played since September 6, when he fractured his right wrist as he pulled back a bunt attempt on a high-and-inside curveball from Reds’ left-hander Brandon Williamson. It’s possible McNeil will be ramped up and ready to play in time for the NLCS, should the Mets win two more games against the Phillies in the NLDS. However, Mendoza made it clear that it’s too soon to offer a definitive timeline for McNeil’s return.

McNeil, 32, got off to a dismal start over the first three months of the 2024 campaign. Then, he turned a corner in July, hitting eight home runs and 15 doubles with an .859 OPS and 140 wRC+ over his final 55 games. The veteran looked much more like the version of himself that won a Silver Slugger and a batting title in 2022. Even if he can’t get back to quite that level of performance, his lefty bat should be a valuable addition to a righty-heavy Mets lineup; he could take over from Jose Iglesias at second base or Starling Marte in right field with a right-handed starting pitcher on the mound.

Speaking of Marte, the 35-year-old outfielder took a Zack Wheeler fastball off his left forearm yesterday. As Britton pointed out, the pitch hit Marte in almost the exact same spot where Phillies reliever Jeff Hoffman plunked him with a sinker three weeks earlier. Marte remained in the game yesterday, running the bases and taking a couple more at-bats, but he was removed in the bottom of the eighth amid a flurry of late-game defensive switches and substitutions. There’s no reason to believe he’s nursing anything more than a minor contusion, but it’s possible he could use a day to rest. After Hoffman beaned him in September, Marte took the next game off. He started the game after that on the bench before entering as a pinch hitter.

More notes from the NL postseason teams…

  • Tommy Edman started in center field for the Dodgers last night, going 2-for-4 with a run scored. His most interesting at-bat, however, was the double play he grounded into with runners on the corners in the bottom of the fifth. Facing the right-handed Jeremiah Estrada, the switch-hitting Edman chose to hit from the right side (h/t to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). It was the first time all season Edman attempted to bat right-handed against a right-handed pitcher. To that point, he batted as a lefty against the other two right-handers he faced last night: Dylan Cease and Bryan Hoeing. It was an unconventional, but not entirely unreasonable, choice for Edman, who hit .181 with a .523 OPS and 51 wRC+ in 117 plate appearances as a lefty batter this season. Conversely, he went 14-for-34 (.412) with four home runs, a 1.299 OPS, and a 250 wRC+ in a tiny sample size of plate appearances as a righty. Indeed, Edman has hit better as a righty in every season of his career. However, when he tried batting right-handed against right-handed pitchers on occasion last season, the results were poor. He produced a .665 OPS and 77 wRC+ in 61 trips to the plate. Even worse, he went 0-for-4 batting righty against righties over two games in 2021. It will be worth watching to see if Edman continues this experiment against Estrada or any of the Padres’ other right-handers.
  • Nursing a sprained right ankle, Freddie Freeman’s status was questionable heading into the NLDS. Yet, the Dodgers first baseman played all nine innings of Game 1, going 2-for-5 at the dish. He also stole a base. Later on, Freeman revealed to reporters (including Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic) that he is also dealing with a bone bruise in his ankle. He says the bruise started to bother home around the fourth inning last night. Nevertheless, the famously durable superstar believes he can do it all again today – with the help of the Dodgers training staff. After the game, manager Dave Roberts joked that Freeman was “certainly medicated” (per Rosenthal), while Freeman expressed his gratitude to the training staff for getting him game-ready despite his significant injuries.

Clayton Kershaw Won’t Return In 2024

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5:15pm: Kershaw spoke to reporters (including Ardaya) this afternoon about the injury and revealed that his attempts to return from the injury have worsened his toe’s condition. Kershaw added that offseason surgery to address the bone spurs is “in the conversation” but indicated that no decision has been made to this point on the topic. When addressing his future Kershaw indicated that he still enjoys pitching but did not want to discuss his plans in detail until after the season has come to a close.

3:33pm: The Dodgers are scheduled to begin Game 1 of the NLDS against the Padres later this evening, and among the pitchers notably absent from their roster for the series is veteran southpaw Clayton Kershaw. That’s not a surprise given that he was previously said to be targeting a return sometime in mid-October, but today manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that the Dodgers will actually be without Kershaw for the entire postseason. Plunkett adds that, according to Roberts, the bone spurs in Kershaw’s big toe have not improved since he went on the IL back in August, adding that things may actually have worsened since then.

The news officially brings to an end an injury-plagues season for Kershaw, who leaves the 2024 campaign behind with a 4.50 ERA (87 ERA+) and 3.87 FIP in 30 innings of work across seven starts while striking out just 18% of opponents. That’s by far the lowest strikeout rate of his career and the first time his ERA+ has been below average since his rookie campaign back in 2008, when his 98 ERA+ came in just a hair below average. While low walk and home run rates help to salvage some of Kershaw’s peripheral numbers, 2024 will nonetheless go down as the worst season of the veteran’s career to this point, though given the small sample its difficult to draw conclusion about his ability when healthy enough to take the mound.

Kershaw holds a $10MM player option for the 2025 season, though after occasionally contemplating retirement over the past few offseasons it’s not yet clear whether or not he’ll exercise that option or wait to decide on his future until later in the winter. Should he decide to continue his career into 2025, the future Hall of Famer will surely be welcomed back by the only team he’s ever known during an offseason where the club is sure to pursue rotation additions with only Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Gavin Stone locked into the 2025 starting rotation alongside Shohei Ohtani, whose return to the mound will likely necessitate moving to a six-man staff.

In the meantime, however, the Dodgers will need to piece together production from a rotation that offers little certainty outside of Yamamoto and deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty throughout the postseason. A struggling Walker Buehler (5.38 ERA in 16 starts) and rookie Landon Knack (3.65 ERA in 69 frames this year) stand as the club’s most likely starting options to fill out the rotation behind Yamamoto and Flaherty, who are set to start Games 1 and 2 respectively.

Aside from Kershaw, right-hander Joe Kelly was also left off the club’s NLDS roster. It was a difficult year for Kelly, who allowed a 4.78 ERA across 35 relief appearances while battling injuries. That includes a shoulder issue that bothered him throughout the final weeks of the season, and Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic) that the veteran right-hander won’t be available until at least the World Series after tweaking his shoulder during a simulated game this week. Without Kelly in the fold, the Dodgers figure to rookie Edgardo Henriquez to fill out their bullpen for the NLDS.

Division Series Roster Notes: Padres, Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Tigers

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We’ve already covered some notable roster additions for the Guardians and Mets as the Division Series begins, and the Royals are sticking with the same 26 players used in the Wild Card Series against the Orioles.  Now that all eight teams in the LDS rounds have revealed their rosters, here are the details…

  • The Padres made two changes from their NLDS roster, adding left-hander Martin Perez and right-hander Alek Jacob and removing Joe Musgrove and infielder Nick Ahmed.  Musgrove was obviously out due to his impending Tommy John surgery, while replacing Ahmed with a pitcher gives San Diego 13 pitchers to go with 13 position players.  Perez is one of five southpaws on San Diego’s roster, as ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (X link) was among those who noted that the Padres are guarding themselves as best they can against Shohei Ohtani and other powerful left-handed Dodgers bats.
  • The Dodgers will go with an even mix of 13 batters and 13 pitchers, and rookie Edgardo Henriquez has made the list of available arms.  Henriquez only made his MLB debut on September 24 and he has played in just three games as a big leaguer, but Los Angeles will give the hard-throwing righty a look in October to add some velocity to the bullpen.  It’s probably safe to assume that Henriquez wouldn’t have made the cut if the Dodgers weren’t ravaged by pitching injuries, yet the rookie also got the nod over veteran Joe Kelly, who had an inconsistent year but was pitching well after returning from the IL in mid-September.  On the position player side, L.A. didn’t include either Kevin Kiermaier or James Outman, so Andy Pages will be the only true backup outfielder along with utilitymen Enrique Hernandez and Chris Taylor in the bench mix.
  • The Phillies will use 14 position players and 12 pitchers in their NLDS matchup with the Mets, with left-hander Kolby Allard joining the relief corps.  Allard has worked as something of a swingman throughout his career, and this ability of covering multiple innings earned Allard the spot, as manager Rob Thomson told MLB.com’s Paul Casella and other reporters.  “He’s going to probably give us the most length if we get into an extra-inning game….so I just wanted as much length as we could get,” Thomson said.  Utilityman Weston Wilson also got the Phils’ last bench spot, as Casella observes that Wilson brings more positional versatility than outfielder Cal Stevenson.
  • The Yankees went heavier on position players (15) than pitchers (11) for their ALDS roster against the Royals.  Anthony Rizzo is missing the series due to two broken fingers and DJ LeMahieu wasn’t yet activated from the injured list, but New York still has plenty of room on its bench, including pinch-running specialist Duke Ellis.  The Yankees appear to be loading up on bats to take on the Royals’ tough rotation and more porous bullpen, which left right-hander Marcus Stroman off the ALDS roster as the odd man out of the starting staff.
  • The Tigers made just one change from their Wild Card Series roster, as rookie righty Keider Montero has been included in place of Casey Mize.  Montero posted a 4.76 ERA over 98 1/3 innings in his first Major League season, starting 16 of 19 games.  This doesn’t necessarily mean Montero will start against the Guardians in the ALDS, however, as Detroit’s pitching staff (apart from ace Tarik Skubal) is very malleable in terms of specific roles.
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