Tom Koehler Diagnosed With Anterior Capsule Strain
An MRI showed that Dodgers reliever Tom Koehler has a mild anterior capsule strain. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that Koehler was seen in a sling, later noting that the righty will be out for “an extended time”, which could be weeks or months. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register adds that no surgery has been planned at the moment, and quotes Koehler as saying it’s “not the way I’d like my tenure as a Dodger to start two weeks in.” He’d left Friday’s spring training game early after retiring just one of the four hitters he faced.
Koehler struggled to a 7.92 ERA in 12 starts with the Marlins last season, but he excelled in a relief role after being acquired by the Blue Jays in August. From that day on, the right-hander posted a 2.65 ERA while striking out 9.53 batters per nine across 17 innings with Toronto. Though team elected to non-tender him following the 2017 season, the Dodgers snatched him up on $2MM contract with some added incentives. If Koehler misses a significant portion of the season, it would prove a blow to his ability to earn additional bonuses through accumulation of total starts and relief appearances.
From the team’s perspective, the loss of Koehler for any length of time would not only thin the Dodgers’ bullpen a bit, but also detract from the team’s rotation depth. Though he struggled in a starter capacity last season, he has an extended track record pitching above-replacement in that capacity. Koehler has made 131 starts in his career while pitching to a 4.44 ERA. Though he was always unlikely to make many starts for Los Angeles, the team’s injury prone starting group would benefit from as much depth as possible.
NL West Notes: Kershaw, Dodgers, Padres, D-backs, Williamson
Over at Fangraphs, Jay Jaffe takes an analytic approach to forecasting a new contract for Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, assuming the three-time Cy Young winner opts out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his current deal after the season. Jaffe notes that, historically speaking, seven-year deals are the norm for elite arms inking both extensions and free-agent pacts, adding that it seems reasonable for Kershaw and his reps at Excel Sports Management to strive for a record-setting average annual value that’d top the current highwater mark set by former teammate Zack Greinke ($34.417MM). That’d set the baseline at something in the vicinity of $241MM over a seven-year term, which seems staggering for a pitcher’s age-31 through age-37 seasons, though Jaffe utilizes multiple projection models and aging curves to demonstrate that Kershaw could actually be, statistically speaking, a strong candidate to nonetheless provide surplus value (or something close to it).
Jaffe also notes that the Dodgers probably wouldn’t risk a new extension beginning with the 2018 season for luxury tax purposes, though a contract announced after Opening Day and beginning with the 2019 season would not count against their current luxury tax ledger. It’s an interesting look at one of the most interesting contractual situations in all of baseball and is well worth a full look.
More from the NL West…
- The Dodgers and Padres are both facing crowded outfield mixes, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick notes in a team-by-team look at the Cactus League. The Dodgers made “every attempt” to trade Matt Kemp after reacquiring him in a salary-motivated trade back in December but were unable to find a taker. He’s now competing with Joc Pederson and Andrew Toles for at-bats in left field, with prospect Alex Verdugo looming as well. The Padres, meanwhile, have Manuel Margot and Wil Myers holding down a pair of outfield spots, leaving a huge group of Hunter Renfroe, Jose Pirela, Alex Dickerson, Travis Jankowski and Franchy Cordero vying for playing time. Skipper Andy Green tells Crasnick there’s a “cutthroat competition” for playing time but also noted that the deep mix of outfielders creates the ability to platoon and play matchups more effectively.
- The D-backs are weighing three middle infielders for two spots, writes MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, with both Ketel Marte and Nick Ahmed vying for the everyday shortstop role while Chris Owings sees time at both middle infield slots. The starting shortstop gig may come down to a battle between Marte and Ahmed, with the former being a offensive-minded option and the latter being a considerably more gifted defender. (Ahmed’s 35 Defensive Runs Saved since 2015 rank 15th in MLB at any position despite the fact that he has fewer innings played than any of the 14 players ahead of him.) Manager Torey Lovullo played it close to the vest when asked by Sanchez about his starting shortstop, simply stating that the organization “loves” all three players. “It’s probably too early for me to give you what will happen [Opening Day],” said Lovullo. “It will be unfair to these guys. They are going to compete.”
- Giants outfielder Mac Williamson spent the offseason working with private hitting instructor Doug Latta, whose most prominent success story is Justin Turner, writes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Williamson spoke with Pavlovic about the changes he’s made to his swing, including the lowering of his hands and incorporation of a larger leg kick. Giants staff members have tried to get Williamson to lift the ball with more regularity in the past, Pavlovic notes, but he’s still posted an ugly 56.6 percent ground-ball rate in his career despite owning a fair bit of raw power. Pavlovic adds that Williamson is likely ticketed for Triple-A, which isn’t a huge surprise given the presence of Andrew McCutchen, Hunter Pence, Austin Jackson and two out-of-options teammates in Jarrett Parker and Gorkys Hernandez.
Rangers Favored To Sign Tim Lincecum
2:33pm: Lincecum is “deep in talks” with Texas, with an expectation that the sides will finalize a deal, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). Passan speculates that Lincecum could move to the pen and perhaps even compete for the still-open closer’s job.
That general plan would appear to fit the Rangers’ desire for multi-inning relievers.
10:54am: Free-agent righty Tim Lincecum is nearing a decision on where he’ll attempt his comeback, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. The Dodgers and Rangers are two of the final organizations being considered by Lincecum, who is said to be weighing major-league offers from those and other clubs.
It has seemed for a while that Lincecum would earn a 40-man spot after putting on an impressive showcase. Certainly, though, it’s notable that multiple organizations are angling to land him after he sat out for all of 2017. Heyman notes that the 33-year-old received “some interest” from most of the teams that watched him throw.
Lincecum’s days as an ace are a distant memory at this point; since the start of 2012, he owns a 4.94 ERA in 654 innings in the majors. He already scuffled in one comeback effort following hip surgery, with a mediocre showing with the Angles in 2016. Indeed, it really was not even clear whether Lincecum would play again until recently.
Clearly, then, interested organizations are basing their assessment less on Lincecum’s past — glorious though it was — than they are on observing his current ability levels. What’ll be most interesting, perhaps, is to see whether Lincecum is able to command not only a meaningful guarantee but also a real shot at earning a rotation spot. It is not known what the veteran hurler is looking for in choosing his next team, but he seems to have enough leverage to make the potential role a real factor.
Dodgers To Sign Rocky Gale To Minors Contract
The Dodgers have agreed to a minor league deal with catcher Rocky Gale, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). The contract includes an invitation to the Dodgers’ big league Spring Training camp. Gale was released by the Padres earlier this week after being designated for assignment to create roster space for the newly-signed Eric Hosmer.
A 24th-round pick for San Diego in the 2010 draft, Gale spent his entire pro career in the Padres organization, hitting .259/.306/.324 over 2198 minor league plate appearances. He made brief appearances at the MLB level in both 2015 and 2017, appearing in a total of 14 Major League games.
Los Angeles already has Austin Barnes and Yasmani Grandal handling duties behind the plate on the 25-man roster, so Gale will join Shawn Zarraga and Kyle Farmer as the Dodgers’ top depth options at the minor league level. There was some trade speculation surrounding Grandal since the veteran catcher is just a year away from free agency and Barnes emerged as a legitimate starter in 2017, though nothing seemed to develop in the way of legitimate buzz about a possible move. It seems much more plausible that L.A. will deploy both Grandal and Barnes this season and any other catching signings are pure depth moves.
NL West Notes: Towers, Kershaw, Tribe, Shaw, Young, Mitchell
The late Kevin Towers was memorialized at a “Celebration Of Life” ceremony today at Petco Park, with scores of Towers’ friends and colleagues from around baseball in attendance. The Associated Press’ Jay Paris and the Padres’ Bill Center each have details on some of the memorials from the 22 speakers who shared their experiences and fond memories of Towers, whose 35 years in baseball included stints as the general manager of the Padres and the Diamondbacks. “He was one of the guys that always brought all the GMs together,” said former Reds and Cardinals general manager Walt Jocketty. “Kevin loved life and lived it to the fullest. He suffered a lot in the last two years but he always stayed positive and fought a brave fight. There will never be another KT.”
Some more items from around the NL West…
- Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi stated earlier this week that the team is keeping an “open dialogue” with Clayton Kershaw about a potential contract extension. The ace southpaw seemingly agreed with that statement today, telling reporters (including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick) that Zaidi’s description of the relationship is “a good way to put it.” Kershaw also said that he is “on the same page” with Dodgers management. Kershaw is signed through the 2020 season, though he can walk away from the final two seasons (and $55MM) on his contract if he exercises an opt-out clause after the coming season. He turns 30 in March and injuries have limited Kershaw to only 324 innings over the last two seasons, though he has still performed to his usual elite level when healthy. An extension would remove Kershaw from the 2018-19 free agent class, a group that is heavy on big names overall but potentially rather slim on the pitching side should Kershaw remain in Los Angeles.
- Bryan Shaw‘s decision to join the Rockies was helped by an endorsement from his former Indians manager Terry Francona, Shaw tells Fangraphs’ David Laurila. “I talked to Tito a little bit about the teams that had interest in me. I got his opinion of the organizations — the managers and others with roles within those organizations. He had nothing but good things to say about Bud Black and the guys who are here,” Shaw said. Cleveland’s front office also offered help with any questions Shaw might’ve had about other teams, a further sign of the good relationship between the right-hander and his former team. Shaw said that he and the Tribe had talks about a possible contract extension midway through last season, “but from a numbers standpoint it never got there.” In December, Shaw signed a three-year deal with Colorado worth $27MM in guaranteed money, plus a potential vesting option for the 2021 season that would pay him $7MM in additional salary.
- Also from Laurila’s piece, he hears from right-hander Chris Young that multiple teams contacted the veteran about potential front office positions this winter. The 38-year-old isn’t quite ready to retire, and in fact hopes to play two more seasons, though he is realistic that his on-field future could be decided within the next few weeks. “This spring is going to determine that. I’m either going to show that I’m back to being myself, or that my stuff isn’t playing. If my stuff isn’t there and I can’t get outs, the time will have come to move on from the playing side,” Young said. The Padres signed Young to a minor league deal this winter to see if he can rebound from a very rough pair of seasons; Young posted a 6.52 ERA over 118 2/3 innings with the Royals in 2016-17, allowing a whopping 35 home runs in that stretch.
- After three years of shuttling between Triple-A and the Yankees’ big league roster, Bryan Mitchell is relieved to finally have a stable place in the Padres‘ rotation, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. “It’s awesome….To know that now, I can set all my focus on Opening Day and working toward that. I don’t have to put pressure on myself or worry about that,” Mitchell said. “It’s just less stress, to be honest — to know that’s how they [the Padres] feel and I have that waiting on me. I can just set my goals on that first start and have everything ready versus have everything ready and not knowing. It eliminates the unknown factor.” The Padres felt strongly enough about Mitchell’s potential that they were willing to take on the $13MM remaining on Chase Headley‘s contract in order to acquire the right-hander from New York.
West Notes: Mariners, Dodgers, Rangers, A’s
Mariners first baseman Dan Vogelbach was hit by a pitch in the right foot on Friday and is now in a walking boot, Greg Johns of MLB.com reports. Vogelbach is currently awaiting results of an MRI he underwent Saturday. A serious injury to Vogelbach would be another notable preseason blow at first for the Mariners, whose starter, Ryon Healy, underwent hand surgery earlier this month. Consequently, Vogelbach and Rule 5 pick Mike Ford had been the only healthy first basemen on the Mariners’ 40-man roster. Healy, meanwhile, is close to having the stitches removed from his hand and could start defensive work within the next week or so, but it’s not known he’ll be able to begin swinging a bat, Johns writes.
More from the game’s West divisions…
- Although Dodgers outfielder Trayce Thompson endured an unproductive, injury-shortened 2017, the team’s front office regards him as someone capable of being an everyday player, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. However, because Thompson’s out of options and battling several other outfielders for a spot, it’s possible he’ll find himself on another team soon, as Plunkett notes. The biggest roadblock for Thompson may be fellow right-handed hitter Matt Kemp, whom the Dodgers haven’t been able to trade. If Kemp sticks around, it could help push Thompson out. Despite that, the soon-to-be 27-year-old Thompson has a high opinion of Kemp. “Matt is a guy I’ve always looked up to since I moved to California,” Thompson said. “It’s a privilege to have him here and kind of pick his brain. At one point, he was the best player in the game. He still can really hit and do a lot of things.”
- Rangers utiityman Jurickson Profar was the subject of trade rumors during the winter and is now out of options, which theoretically could put his future with the team in jeopardy. But there’s no doubt he’ll earn a roster spot this year with Texas, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The question is whether Profar will garner enough playing time to produce, Grant writes. The former top prospect has seen time in the outfield, but he’s presently vying for a role in the infield, where Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre are dug in as starters.
- Athletics infielder/outfielder Renato Nunez suffered a strained left hamstring Saturday, which could negatively affect his chances of earning a roster spot, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle relays. Nunez said Saturday that the injury’s “not good,” and Slusser notes that hamstring strains typically require a two- to three-week recovery period. That would be especially problematic for the out-of-options Nunez. However, it could be a boon for Sheldon Neuse, who Slusser suggests will probably see most of the action at third base with both Nunez and starter Matt Chapman (right hand soreness) on the shelf.
NL West Notes: Barnes, Tomas, Giants
When Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi isn’t working to get an edge on rival teams, he’s trying to out-maneuver those within the organization in fantasy football, as Andy McCullough writes in a fun piece for the Los Angeles Times. Dodgers players are regretting their decision to allow the executive into the team’s league, it seems, as he has run off three-straight championships. Among the many choice quotes are several from L.A. ace Clayton Kershaw, who calls Zaidi a “big loophole guy.” Opportunistic claims and creative roster-building tactics evidently play as well in fantasy football as they do in compiling a winning ballclub.
Here are a few notes out of the NL West:
- Elbow health is a topic of attention in Dodgers camp, McCullough further reports, though perhaps fortunately the issue is to this point mostly centered on the position-player group. Star shortstop Corey Seager is being treated with care in camp, but there’s also a new concern with catcher/second baseman Austin Barnes. The 28-year-old, who turned in a breakout 2017 season, is working out but won’t be allowed to throw in a game for the first week of action after some elbow inflammation arose over the offseason. Barnes says he “probably threw too much” over the winter in an effort to improve at cutting down baserunners, but also insists he is capable of going at full speed. The Los Angeles organization has an admirable group of catchers and seems mostly to be acting out of caution, so for now this is just a situation to keep an eye on.
- The Diamondbacks face an increasingly difficult challenge with regard to outfielder Yasmany Tomas, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. It’s possible that the lumbering slugger could be optioned or outrighted rather than opening on the active roster, Piecoro suggests. Following an injury-limited season in which the 27-year-old Tomas limped to a .241/.294/.464 batting line, Arizona has made alternative plans in the outfield and doesn’t seem to have much use for one of its most highly-compensated players. With $10MM owed for 2018, there’s not much hope of finding another organization to take over his contract, particularly since he can opt to secure an additional $32.5MM over the ensuing two seasons. The post is a detailed look at a situation that doesn’t admit of easy answers.
- ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick checks in on Giants camp, discussing the veteran-heavy unit that will try to engineer a dramatic turnaround following a moribund 2017 effort. Executive VP of baseball operations Brian Sabean discussed in broad terms the fact that the team’s offseason strategy involved bringing in established players whose best days are likely in the past. He suggests that many supremely talented players ought to be able to thrive even as they move out of their prime years. “I don’t think the industry gives itself enough credit with the initiatives we’ve taken with sports science, rest and recovery, nutrition, offseason conditioning, in-season conditioning, the new off days built into the schedule and the new ways to travel that are more elite and more first class,” explains Sabean. While moves for Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria, and others were surely made in part because they allowed the club to add proven performers while staying below the luxury tax line, it does seem the San Francisco organization believes that some of its competitors may be a bit too fixated on age. Some of the newly added and preexisting veterans echo that sentiment; there’s plenty more of interest to unpack in the article.
Dodgers Claim J.T. Chargois From Twins
The Dodgers announced that they’ve claimed right-handed reliever J.T. Chargois off waivers from the Twins. Left-hander Julio Urias has been transferred to the 60-day disabled list to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported yesterday that Chargois had hit the waiver wire. Urias underwent shoulder surgery late last June and could miss the entire 2018 season.
The 27-year-old Chargois was Minnesota’s second-round pick out of Rice back in 2012 but has seen his development slowed by multiple injuries throughout his career, including Tommy John surgery and a stress reaction in his elbow this past season. When healthy, Chargois features a mid-90s fastball that can scrape triple digits. He’s dominated throughout his minor league tenure when healthy, working to a career 1.91 ERA with 10.5 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9, but his injuries have limited him to just 113 1/3 innings in the minors and another 23 in the Majors, where he owns a 4.70 ERA and a 17-to-12 K/BB ratio.
For the Twins, they now have an open 40-man roster spot to work with. There’s been no corresponding roster move announced to go along with Chargois’ placement on waivers, though the Twins have been linked to various pitchers, both in free agency and trade, even after acquiring Jake Odorizzi from the Rays. They’ll now have an open spot to accommodate the acquisition of another arm or a right-handed bat — another asset they’re rumored to covet — though there’s no indication that any such move is looming in the immediate future.
Heyman’s Latest: LoMo, Braves, Moustakas, White Sox, CarGo, Lynn, Arrieta
There’s enough talent left on the free-agent market — including seven of the top twenty players on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents — that the overall assessment of spending could yet be swayed by contracts that have yet to be reached. (As always, you can review the action to this point in our 2017-18 MLB Free Agent Tracker.) As we wait for the final data points to be registered, it’s worth considering this recent piece from The Ringer’s Ben Lindbergh regarding the debate over player spending in comparison to revenue (as well as this earlier AP examination of spending and revenue from the spring of 2016). Calculating the players’ slice of the pie — and the size of the pie itself — is certainly a nuanced undertaking, and one for which complete public data is lacking.
The markedly sluggish timing of this year’s market, of course, is something that has already been established quite clearly. With an unprecedented number of top players still awaiting new deals as Spring Training opens, let’s take a look at a few of the most notable bits of information from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (from his latest notes column, unless otherwise noted):
- At least as of a few days back, says Heyman, first baseman Logan Morrison was not sitting on any open offers. While LoMo’s representatives surely have an idea of what might be available, it’s rather notable that no organizations seem to be making a concerted effort to draw him. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently argued in favor of Morrison as a worthy free-agent target, but it certainly isn’t doing him any favors that the market still holds a few other quality slugger types. Still, Morrison’s excellent recent work at the plate would unquestionably hold out the promise of real improvement for a variety of organizations.
- There’s still no evidence that the Braves are particularly likely to agree to terms with third baseman Mike Moustakas, but Heyman says there has been some amount of engagement — even if “there’s no common ground” to this point. The Atlanta organization, which Heyman says even considered Lorenzo Cain at one point, may have reduced 2018 flexibility after a salary swapping deal with the Dodgers moved some obligations forward. But it seems the team is still at least hunting around for interesting possibilities. As for Moustakas, Heyman notes he has “plenty of one-year opportunities,” but it’s not clear at this point whether a significant multi-year deal will be forthcoming. That’s surely disappointing after he turned in a strong 2017 season, though it is not atypical for some quality players to run into problematic market circumstances.
- The White Sox have been linked, albeit loosely, to Moustakas, and it still seems as if the Chicago organization could have some tricks up its sleeves. While the focus, no doubt, remains on the future, the club is going to have some solid veterans and high-end young talents on the roster for the coming season. With just over $70MM on the books for 2018, perhaps the organization could yet pursue some one-year or multi-year deals that would hold out the promise of delivering excess value. Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is a “possibility” for the South Siders, per Heyman. It stands to reason that the Sox might hold added appeal to players such as Gonzalez if they are willing to offer more playing time than might be available elsewhere.
- With several starters locking in solid rates of pay of late, and the bullpen market heating up earlier in the offseason, pitchers seem generally to have had an easier go of things on this winter’s wacky market. Heyman writes that veteran righty Lance Lynn has not been forced to significantly drop his asking price. Indications are that the Twins, per the report, “seem to prefer” Lynn to other still-available starters. Heyman further reports that Jake Arrieta‘s agent, Scott Boras, still seems to believe that Arrieta compares more reasonably with pitchers who have landed mega-deals than he does with the recently inked Yu Darvish, who received a $126MM guarantee. Of course, we’re still waiting to see how those and a few other top open-market pitchers will end up doing when all is said and done.
Minor MLB Transactions: 2/19/18
Here are Monday’s minor signings from throughout the league…
- The Reds announced that they’ve signed right-handed reliever Ben Rowen to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. The 29-year-old Rowen has just 11 2/3 MLB innings under his belt (none since 2016), but the sidearmer has a lengthy track record of success in Triple-A. While Rowen had a down season in 2017, working to a 4.41 ERA in 63 1/3 innings, his struggles came in a hitters’ paradise — the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate in Las Vegas. Overall, Rowen has a career 2.81 ERA with 6.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in parts of five Triple-A campaigns, and he has routinely racked up ground-ball rates north of 60 percent thanks in large part to his unorthodox delivery.
- The Dodgers have inked former Cubs/Rockies outfielder Tyler Colvin to a minor league deal, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. Now 32 years old, Colvin hasn’t been in the Majors since 2014 and hasn’t been affiliated with a big league organization since a 2015 stint with the White Sox’ Triple-A club. He spent the 2016 season with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League and struggled to a .218/.264/.339 slash through 277 plate appearances, and he didn’t play professionally in 2017. Colvin had success in the Majors back in 2010 (113 OPS+) and 2012 (114 OPS+), but his overall .239/.287/.446 slash through 1309 MLB PAs is reflective of the fact that he’s had more struggles than success in the big leagues.