Marlins To Non-Tender Henderson Alvarez
The Marlins will non-tender right-hander Henderson Alvarez — their Opening Day starter from this past season — sources tell Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link).
The decision comes as somewhat of a surprise but seemingly indicates that the Marlins aren’t fully convinced that Alvarez will be able to contribute in 2016 as he recovers from right shoulder surgery that he underwent back in late July. Indications in September were that the Marlins felt comfortable tendering Alvarez, who projected to earn $4MM this year (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), a contract for the 2016 season. However, recent reports have suggested that the team was no longer certain that would be the case, as Alvarez’s injury was expected to keep him out at least into the first month of the season.
Despite questions surrounding the health of his shoulder, Alvarez figures to draw widespread interest on the free-agent market. He’s still just 25 years of age (26 in April) and pitched to a sparkling 2.98 ERA with 5.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 53.6 percent ground-ball rate from 2013-14 when healthy in Miami (including a a no-hitter on the final day of the season in 2013).
Alvarez has just over four years of big league service under his belt, meaning that any club which signs him to a big league deal will be able to control him for not only the 2016 season but also the 2017 campaign, via the arbitration process. Alvarez has never been one to miss many bats, but he’s a well-regarded arm that could certainly slot into the middle of a big league rotation, so long as his shoulder allows him to do so.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Phillies Claim Peter Bourjos, Lose Nefi Ogando To Marlins
The Phillies have claimed center fielder Peter Bourjos off waivers from the Cardinals, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (links to Twitter). The Phillies have since announced the move, adding that right-handed reliever Nefi Ogando has been claimed off waivers by the Marlins.
The claim of Bourjos gives the Phillies a defensively gifted center fielder that has a year of club control remaining at a modest (projected) salary of $1.8MM. The Phillies had the top waiver priority this offseason, meaning Bourjos was nabbed by the first team to which he was made available. That, perhaps, shouldn’t come as a total surprise considering the fact that new Phillies GM Matt Klentak was a longtime assistant GM with the organization that drafted and developed Bourjos — the Angels.
St. Louis originally acquired Bourjos and then-prospect Randal Grichuk from the Angels in a deal that sent David Freese and Fernando Salas to the Angels. Bourjos was deemed expendable in Anaheim due to the presence of Mike Trout in center field and Kole Calhoun and Josh Hamilton on the outfield corners. Bourjos, though, received inconsistent playing time in St. Louis and struggled to produce at the plate with the Cardinals, batting just .218/.292/.342 in 519 plate appearances. He also underwent hip surgery last offseason.
That operation may or may not have contributed to Bourjos’ uncharacteristically below-average defensive ratings in 2015. Long considered a premium defender with excellent speed, Bourjos posted Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating marks of -4 and -3.4, respectively, in 476 innings in center field. He’s been outstanding in every other season of his career, however, totaling 36 runs saved in 3761 career innings to go along with a UZR/150 of +16.1.
There’s some upside in Bourjos’ bat, as evidenced by a .271/.327/.438 batting line posted back in 2011, though he’s now four seasons removed from that type of production. A move to the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park should help his offense, though. Bourjos, who turns 29 at the end of next Spring Training, will be in the mix for considerably more at-bats than he received in St. Louis. He’ll be joined by Odubel Herrera and Cody Asche as potential starters, and young Aaron Altherr, too, figures to receive consideration as well.
In Ogando, the Phillies have lost (and the Marlins have gained) a 26-year-old righty with a blistering fastball but a questionable secondary pitch and questionable control. Ogando averaged 95.5 mph on his fastball in a brief, four-inning Major League debut last season. He did post a strong 2.86 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015, but he averaged just 7.9 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9 in spite of his strong velocity. The Marlins will look to harness his control in an effort to better translate his heat to missed bats and, ideally, strong results at the big league level.
Marlins To Sign Justin Maxwell To Minors Deal
TODAY: Maxwell would earn a $1.1MM salary if he can crack the major league roster, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. The deal also includes an opt out just before the start of the season that would allow Maxwell to seek a new opportunity if he’s not ticketed for Miami at the end of camp.
YESTERDAY: The Marlins have agreed to a minor league deal with outfielder Justin Maxwell, Matt Eddy of Baseball America reports on Twitter. Also agreeing to terms with the Fish were first baseman Xavier Scruggs and righty Paul Clemens.
Maxwell played a bigger-than-expected role with the Giants last year as injuries impacted the club’s outfield alignment. He got off to a nice start, but faded over time and finished the year with a .209/.275/.341 batting line over 274 plate appearances. Maxwell did produce above-average slash lines in 2012 and 2013 as an oft-used part-time player.
Scruggs, who just turned 28, will be moving away from the Cardinals system for the first time. He’s received a quick taste of the big leagues in each of the last two years, but has spent most of his time in the upper minors. After a strong .281/.367/.490 campaign in 2014, Scruggs took a step back last year and finished with a .222/.323/.386 slash in his 601 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, the 27-year-old Clemens has thrown just under 100 MLB innings, all of which were logged over 2013-14 with the Astros. He carries a 5.51 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in that limited time. Last year, Clemens pitched in the Phillies’ and Royals’ systems, tallying 81 frames with a 5.44 ERA.
Shelby Miller Drawing Significant Trade Interest
Braves right-hander Shelby Miller is one of the hottest names on the trade market, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, with as many as 20 teams having checked in on the young right-hander. There’s no indication that anything is close at this time, Heyman notes, and the Braves are said to be asking a huge haul in return for Miller, who has three years of affordable club control remaining.
The Dodgers, Yankees, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Giants have all shown interest in Miller to this point. According to Heyman, the Braves asked the Yankees for right-hander Luis Severino in exchange for Miller, and the Marlins were asked to part with outfielder Marcell Ozuna and other pieces in order to pry Miller away from Atlanta. Those steep asking prices line up with previous reports pertaining to the Braves’ talks with the Diamondbacks, when they reportedly asked that Arizona part with star center fielder A.J. Pollock. (Those talks didn’t gain traction.)
Miller, acquired alongside minor league righty Tyrell Jenkins in exchange for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden, is coming off a strong debut season with the Braves. The former first-rounder logged a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-best 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in 205 1/3 innings (the innings total was also a career high). Miller won only six games due to Atlanta’s bullpen struggles and a lack of run support, but that actually enhances is value in a way. Teams won’t be deterred by a poor win-loss record when evaluating Miller, but the lack of wins will suppress his arbitration earnings, as the arb process still factors in pitcher wins/losses rather heavily. Miller’s strong body of work as a whole to this point in his career still makes for a $4.9MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, but the number assuredly would’ve been greater had his record aligned more accordingly with his ERA.
One factor that clubs may consider, though, is that Miller’s overall numbers are propped up by what was an unsustainable run of sub-2.00 ERA production through the season’s first two months. From June 1 through season’s end, Miller posted a quality (but less impressive) 3.77 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 across 138 1/3 innings. Miller’s strikeout rates and control numbers have fluctuated somewhat throughout his career, but low BABIP totals and seemingly good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball rate have led to a large discrepancy between his 3.22 ERA and metrics such as xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.10). Miller’s BABIP has always been below the league average, though, as has his HR/FB, suggesting that some of the perceived fortune could be more skill-based in his case.
Ultimately, the value placed upon him in a potential trade (if he is moved at all) will be dependent on whether the club places more emphasis on his ERA or on his secondary stats. Even if Miller is more of a mid- or upper-3.00 ERA type of pitcher, three seasons of control over him would still come with significant value, so it’s logical to see Atlanta placing a sizable asking price on Miller when listening to offers from interested parties.
NL East Notes: Zobrist, Minor, Ozuna, Jennings
Earlier today, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported that the Mets, Nationals and Braves were among the teams most interested in Ben Zobrist. The Braves are a somewhat surprising candidate since they appear to be rebuilding, but Rosenthal tweets that Atlanta likes Zobrist as a role model for its young players as the team moves into its new ballpark in 2017. Braves GM John Coppolella declined comment on the report, only telling Rosenthal (Twitter links) that he “can’t comment on any free agent pursuits, but we will explore every possible opportunity to improve [the] club in the short- and long-term. Ben Zobrist brings so much to the table on and off the field that he could help all 30 teams.”
Here’s more from around the NL East…
- Mike Minor‘s fate is still up in the air as the Braves approach the non-tender deadline on December 2, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Minor missed all of 2015 recovering from labrum surgery and suffered a setback in early November that has limited him to stretching and range-of-motion exercises. As such, the Braves still haven’t seen Minor throw off a mound, which Copplella indicated a few weeks ago as a significant factor in the team’s decision. The GM tells O’Brien that the Braves are still gathering more information about Minor’s status, and he praised Minor and agent B.B. Abbott for their openness.
- The Mariners still have interest in Marcell Ozuna but they’re unlikely to meet the Marlins‘ asking price of Taijuan Walker in exchange, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports (Twitter link). The two teams were known to be discussing possible Ozuna deals earlier this week, with reports coming that Walker “isn’t available” in trade talks.
- Former Marlins manager and GM Dan Jennings tells Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that he has no regrets about his move from the front office to the dugout, calling it “the best experience he’s had in 30 years in baseball” and saying he “absolutely would do it over again” (Twitter link).
- Jennings also gave his opinion on Ozuna’s struggles in 2015 and the rumors of Jose Fernandez‘s issues within the Marlins clubhouse (audio link), saying that he had no issues with Fernandez, calling him “one of the best competitors I’ve ever been around in 30 years.“
- A businessman approached Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria about buying the team only to be told that Loria has no intention of selling, Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald writes. This interested buyer hopes that Loria may change his mind after the Marlins host the 2017 All-Star Game. The Marlins indicated to him that if Loria ever did look to sell the club, the asking price would be $1 billion, well north of the $650MM estimation of the team’s value as calculated by Forbes Magazine.
- Yunel Escobar could be a good trade chip for the Nationals since the club seems to have its starting infield set, MASNsports.com’s Pete Kerzel writes. On the other hand, Escobar could also be valuable depth given some of the question marks surrounding that infield — Anthony Rendon could get hurt, Danny Espinosa could regress to his 2013-14 form or Trea Turner may not quickly adjust to the majors. I would think the Nats may only shop Escobar if they land Zobrist, in which case Espinosa (the better defender) would become the backup infielder.
NL East Notes: Francoeur, Ozuna, Schuerholz
Here’s the latest from around the NL East…
- The Phillies are still interested in re-signing Jeff Francoeur but are also exploring the market for other part-time outfielders, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. Francoeur said in September that the two sides had a shared interest in continuing their relationship in 2016, and while assistant GM Scott Proefrock didn’t comment on this (due to league regulations about publicly discussing free agents), he did praise Francoeur’s contributions as a clubhouse mentor.
- The bad blood between Marcell Ozuna and the Marlins won’t do anything to harm his trade value, Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan opines, as Ozuna’s high ceiling has already led to a lot of interest from other teams. With the Fish looking to add a young starter in return, Sullivan looks at some trade candidates who could be a match for Ozuna talent-wise. Danny Salazar or Taijuan Walker would be too much while James Paxton or Nathan Karns would be too little, so Sullivan settles on the Orioles’ Kevin Gausman as a good match. It should be noted that Sullivan is just speculating about comparable talent levels, not saying that the Orioles should make that deal or that they’re even interested in Ozuna’s services.
- Braves president John Schuerholz talks to I.J. Rosenberg of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution about a number of topics including his long career in baseball, building the Braves’ championship nucleus in the 1990’s, the role of a club president and the team’s current rebuilding process.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11-25-15
Here are the day’s minor moves:
- The Rays released catcher J.P. Arencibia after recently designating him for assignment, per the team’s transactions page. Arencibia, 29, had an impressive 24-game run with Tampa Bay late in the season, but it wasn’t enough for the club to tender him a contract. He ought to get plenty of interest as a free agent from teams looking for major-league-capable receiving options.
- Mariners lefty Danny Hultzen cleared outright waivers, the club announced. Though his talent has always been evident, Hultzen’s shoulder has not been willing. Despite going second overall in the 2011 draft, Hultzen has yet to tally 200 professional innings pitched.
- Backstop Adrian Nieto tweets that he’s signed on with the Marlins. Nieto was a Rule 5 pick of the White Sox who stuck on the big league roster for all of 2014, but the switch-hitter didn’t hit much at the Double-A level last year and lost his roster spot in Chicago.
- The Orioles announced a host of minor league signings today. Among the notable names are righties Pedro Beato and Todd Redmond, lefty Cesar Cabral, and catcher Audry Perez. The 29-year-old Beato has 93 1/3 innings of MLB experience under his belt, while Redmond was a regular part of the Blue Jays’ pen from 2013-14 before losing his job last year. Cabral and Perez both have much more limited MLB experience. They each return to the Baltimore organization after spending most of 2015 at Triple-A Norfolk.
- The Blue Jays have signed lefty Scott Diamond to a minor league deal, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports. The 29-year-old will receive a big league camp invite after tossing 150 1/3 solid Triple-A frames last year in the Rays organization.
Mariners, Marlins Discussing Trade; Marcell Ozuna Involved
12:10am: Frisaro tweets that while he hasn’t confirmed anything, he gets the sense that the Marlins covet Walker. However, he adds that the Marlins also aren’t going to give away Ozuna’s potential 30-homer bat in exchange for Elias, thus suggesting that if a trade is ultimately reached, it will be substantial in nature.
10:25pm: Walker “isn’t available,” tweets Crasnick, and Paxton’s health concerns might not great enough that the Marlins wouldn’t part with Ozuna, raising the question of whether or not Elias or Karns would entice Miami.
10:00pm: Frisaro now tweets that the Marlins and Mariners could be aiming to complete a larger deal than just Ozuna for a pitcher. Crasnick tweeted earlier today that many expect Dipoto to trade Mark Trumbo again this winter (he dealt Trumbo from Anaheim to Arizona when he was GM of the Angels), though Trumbo’s lofty arb projection ($9.1MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and the presence of Justin Bour in Miami make Trumbo an imperfect fit for the Fish.
9:48pm: MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets that the Marlins are “fielding a lot of calls” on Ozuna currently, adding that he’s not sure anything is imminent. MLB.com’s Greg Johns also adds (Twitter link) that it “doesn’t sound like anything is imminent.”
9:20pm: Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald cites multiple sources in reporting that the Marlins could be looking at Elias and/or Karns (Twitter link).
8:55pm: The Mariners and Marlins are working on a trade that would send outfielder Marcell Ozuna from Miami to Seattle, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). If consummated, the move would continue what has been an incredibly active offseason for new Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto.
The 25-year-old Ozuna has been an oft-speculated trade candidate after Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria soured him this season. Miami reportedly has hoped to acquire young pitching in any trade of Ozuna, and the Mariners have plenty of controllable arms that could attract the Marlins’ attention. Left-handers James Paxton and Roenis Elias both have substantial amounts of team control remaining, as does right-hander Taijuan Walker and even the recently acquired Nate Karns. Of course, each of those names is just a speculative fit and any could require additional pieces from either side to change hands. Walker and Paxton probably have the highest ceilings of the bunch, though each has a notable injury history at a young age.
Ozuna enjoyed an excellent 2014 campaign in which he batted .269/.317/.455 with 23 homers in his age-23 season despite his pitcher-friendly home park. However, he slumped out of the gates in 2015 and at one point went through a dismal 1-for-36 slump that earned him a trip to Triple-A. Ozuna hit well in the minors, and the length of his demotion led agent Scott Boras to question the Marlins’ motives, alleging that the team was keeping his client in Triple-A to lessen the likelihood of reaching Super Two status by suppressing his service time. Ozuna ultimately fell shy of Super Two designation by roughly one week of service time. Upon returning, Ozuna likened the demotion to a “jail sentence,” which unsurprisingly didn’t sit well with Loria. I profiled Ozuna as a trade candidate at length shortly after his recall, and it’s worth noting that Ozuna produced a robust .286/.329/.487 line from the time that piece was written through season’s end. He’s controllable for another four seasons and won’t be arb-eligible until next winter.
If the Mariners are to acquire Ozuna, he’d presumably become an option in right field, thereby shifting Nelson Cruz into a primarily designated hitter role. Leonys Martin‘s glove probably makes him the preferred option in center field, while Dipoto has already expressed that he expects Franklin Gutierrez and Seth Smith to platoon in left field.
To call Dipoto “active” thus far would be an understatement. Since taking over as the top baseball operations decision-maker in Seattle, he’s acquired Karns from the Rays in a six-player trade, landed late-inning reliever Joaquin Benoit from the Padres in exchange for a pair of prospects, acquired Martin from the division-rival Rangers and picked up utilityman Luis Sardinas from the Brewers in exchange for a minor league outfielder. Dipoto has also re-signed Gutierrez and brought Chris Iannetta to Seattle on a one-year deal in addition to making a pair of waiver claims in the first month or so of the offseason.
Starting Pitching Notes: Lackey, Fernandez, Price, Chen
The Giants are among the clubs that are showing interest in right-hander John Lackey, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). San Francisco, though, is exploring a wide swath of starting pitching options, per Rosenthal, so it only makes sense that Lackey would be among the pitchers to pique the team’s interest. The 37-year-old Lackey has been a popular name on the free-agent market thus far, having reportedly been connected to the Marlins, Cardinals, Cubs, D-Backs, Rangers, Red Sox and Dodgers thus far. Over the weekend, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo listed the Giants and Cubs as the two teams with the best shot to sign Lackey.
Here’s more on the market for rotation arms…
- Executives from teams searching for high-end starting pitching tell Joel Sherman of the New York Post that Jose Fernandez isn’t available in trades at this time. Sherman spoke with Fernandez’s agent, Scott Boras, about the reported tension between him and the Marlins‘ front office. Boras tells Sherman that he spoke with Miami president of baseball operations Michael Hill the day after the initial negative reports surfaced, with Hill telling him that he looked forward to Fernandez fronting the team’s rotation in 2016.
- In an appearance on TSN 1050 in Canada (audio link), ESPN’s Keith Law discusses David Price with hosts Derek Taylor and Kara Wagland, noting that there’s no reason to believe he would accept anything less than full market value to return to the Blue Jays. Law adds that he’s never felt a reunion between the two sides is likely, pointing out that the MLBPA encourages the top names on the market to take every dollar possible to drive up the price for the second tier of free agents and the following year’s class. The idea of Price returning to Toronto has seemed like a long shot, at best, since he was acquired, given the team’s mid-sized payroll and previous lack of lengthy commitments. Law’s colleague, Buster Olney, wrote recently in his ESPN Insider daily blog post that some evaluators involved in discussions with Price’s camp believe that Price is indicating to all clubs that he’d like to play for them.
- FOX’s Jon Paul Morosi wonders if left-hander Wei-Yin Chen could potentially pull down an annual value of $20MM on his upcoming contract. While that number seems like a stretch, Morosi points out that agents will likely be citing Rick Porcello‘s $20.625MM annual value in contract negotiations this winter. A team paying $20MM+ annually for Chen seems like a stretch to me, but Morosi’s general point about Porcello serving as a reference is interesting; we’ll find out this offseason whether that contract looks like an outlier or one that served to drive up the price for second-tier starting pitchers. Porcello’s name has come up in conversations I’ve had with industry contacts this winter, though only time will tell if his contract does indeed serve to advance the secondary pitching market.
- In a piece for Sports On Earth, MLB.com’s A.J. Cassavell tries to peg Zack Greinke‘s free-agent value based on historical comparisons. Cassavell looks at age-based comps in an attempt to gauge how long Greinke will remain effective and the length of contract he’ll ultimately command. Cassavell projects that Greinke can be realistically relied upon for three more high-quality seasons before beginning to regress to above-average (but no longer elite) results, ultimately coming to the conclusion of a six-year, $153MM contract prediction.
Quick Hits: Dombrowski, Fernandez, Harvey, Britton
Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski discussed his team’s pitching search in an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link here). Dombrowski said that “any of” the top starters on both the trade and free agent markets “are under consideration for us” as the Sox are casting a wide net in looking for an ace. “The [free agent] market is probably, as flush as it is…an area that we would pursue more, but I think that you’d feel comfortable that any names out there, you could say we have interest in them and hopefully somebody will have interest in us,” Dombrowski said. When asked about Red Sox ownership’s recent reluctance to give long-term deals to pitchers, Dombrowski discussed the importance and necessity of keeping upper management informed about any major signing. “I don’t think anyone really cherishes giving that long term of a contract to any pitcher in particular but it’s a situation [where]…if you’re going to participate, you’re most likely going to have to do that,” Dombrowski said.
Here’s some more from around baseball as we head into a new week…
- “The lines of communication” between Jose Fernandez and the Marlins front office “have been good” as of late, sources tell ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider subscription required). This could be why neither side seems to be looking for a trade, despite some reports of personality issues between Fernandez and some teammates. As Olney notes, there has never been any doubt of Fernandez’s passion for baseball, and some of the behavioral drama could stem from a franchise-wide lack of discipline caused by the Marlins’ unsettled managerial situation. With a veteran skipper like Don Mattingly on board, things should theoretically be more stable within Miami’s clubhouse.
- If the Marlins did want to deal Fernandez, Olney notes, it might better suit them to wait until next winter when the pitching market is less crowded. The Mets could also be planning this same strategy for exploring Matt Harvey trades in the 2016-17 offseason.
- Unless the Orioles get a huge offer, it probably makes more sense for the club to keep Zach Britton rather than shop him in trades, CSNMidAtlantic.com’s Rich Dubroff opines. Dealing Britton would fetch some sorely-needed prospects for Baltimore, and also open some payroll space given Britton’s escalating price tag as he enters his arbitration years. On the other hand, dealing the star closer would leave a big hole on a would-be contender, especially one that is already likely to lose a big bullpen arm in Darren O’Day.
- Several young players have been mentioned in trade rumors this offseason, and MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince gives an overview of the some of the talents who could be trade chips rather than cornerstones for their respective clubs.
- On the flip side, MLB.com’s Dan O’Dowd identifies Lorenzo Cain, Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, A.J. Pollock and Marcus Stroman as players who have become big pieces of their clubs’ present and future, and all could be targeted for extensions this winter. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd examined Cole as an extension candidate last March, before Cole boosted his value with a superb season.