Marlins Outright Daniel Castano
The Marlins have sent left-hander Daniel Castano outright to Triple-A Jacksonville, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. He was unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment on Tuesday.
Castano has made two appearances for Miami on the year, allowing eight runs over three innings. The 28-year-old southpaw has pitched for the Fish in four straight seasons, topping out at 35 2/3 frames a year ago. He has a career 4.47 ERA over 24 appearances, 17 of which have been starts. While his 12.4% strikeout rate is well below-average, he has generally thrown strikes and kept the ball on the ground when given opportunities as a depth starter.
This is the third time this year in which the Fish have sent Castano through waivers. He accepted the previous stint and has started eight of 16 contests in a swing capacity with Jacksonville. Over 57 2/3 innings there, he owns a 4.06 ERA with average strikeout and walk marks (22.4% and 8.9%, respectively). The Baylor product has allowed 4.02 earned runs per nine through 170 career innings at the top minor league level.
As a player with multiple career outrights, Castano has the ability to elect free agency. It isn’t clear whether he’ll do so. He’d reach minor league free agency at the start of the offseason unless the Marlins add him back to the 40-man roster regardless, so he could choose to stick in Jacksonville as multi-inning depth for the season’s final couple weeks.
Sandy Alcantara Diagnosed With UCL Sprain
Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara was placed on the injured list a week ago, with his injury described at that time as a right forearm flexor strain. Manager Skip Schumaker today told Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald that an MRI revealed Alcantara has a sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament. It seems the club hasn’t ruled out a return this season from the righty, who played catch today, per McPherson. “Watching him throw is a good thing,” Schumaker said. “It’s a progression. We’re going to watch it every day and go from there.”
The club hasn’t announced the severity of the sprain, though the fact that they are holding out hope of him returning later this year perhaps indicates it is on the mild side. A sprain of the UCL can be a precursor to an extremely significant result like Tommy John surgery, though not in all cases. Phillies prospect Andrew Painter was diagnosed with a UCL sprain earlier this year and did ultimately require Tommy John, though Mason Miller of the Athletics was diagnosed with a mild UCL sprain in May and returned to the A’s about four months later.
It seems that a lot is still to be determined about the steps forward. Earlier today, a report at the Herald from McPherson, Craig Mish and Barry Jackson relayed that the next steps are still being worked out. Alcantara is now apparently pain-free and could return to the club in a week if that continues to be the case. But there’s also another path wherein he would be shut down for four to six weeks and then re-evaluated in October.
It’s difficult to overstate the importance of a pitcher like Alcantara to the Marlins, even though his results have taken a step back from last year’s. He was crowned with the National League Cy Young award after posting a 2.28 earned run average over 228 2/3 innings in 2022. His ERA has ticked up to 4.14 this year, though he’s largely gotten back on track after a rough start, registering a 3.04 ERA since July 3.
In spite of Alcantara not quite being his most dominant self this year, the Marlins are having one of their best seasons in years. They are currently 74-71, putting them a game and a half back of a Wild Card spot in the National League. The last time the Marlins made the playoffs in a full season was 20 years ago, back in 2003.
Without Alcantara, the club’s rotation currently consists of Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett and Johnny Cueto. There’s a lot of upside in that group but it would naturally be even better with a healthy and effective Alcantara in the mix.
More information will surely be revealed in the weeks to come, with a wide range of outcomes seemingly possible, from Alcantara returning in a week to him being shut down for the year.
Marlins Designate Daniel Castano For Assignment
The Marlins have designated left-hander Daniel Castano for assignment, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Left-hander Josh Simpson has been recalled to take his place on the roster and will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.
Castano, 28, was outrighted off Miami’s roster in the offseason but selected back onto it in April. He was outrighted again in June and could have elected free agency but decided to stay in the organization. He got added back to the roster on the weekend but has now been bumped off yet again.
Around those transactions, Castano has made just two appearances in the majors this year, allowing seven earned runs in three innings. He’s spent most of his time in Triple-A, tossing 57 2/3 innings at that level with a 4.06 earned run average, 22.4% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and 45.4% ground ball rate.
The Marlins will place Castano back on waivers in the coming days and it’s possible the same sequence of events plays out as earlier in the year, with Castano clearing and then accepting an outright assignment, though that will be determined in due time.
As for Simpson, now 26, he was a 32nd round selection of the Marlins in the 2019 draft. Last year, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A with a combined 3.97 ERA in 68 innings, walking 12.4% of batters but with a massive 40.7% strikeout rate. That got him added to the 40-man roster in November, to prevent him from being available in the Rule 5 draft.
Here in 2023, he’s mostly been in Triple-A, carrying over a similar profile. He has struck out 37.9% of batters faced in his 32 innings for Jacksonville but also given out walks at a 15.2% rate, leading to an ERA of 4.50 at that level this year. Despite the obvious control issues, the Marlins will bump him up to the majors to see how his stuff plays against big league hitters.
Marlins Outright Devin Smeltzer
The Marlins have sent left-hander Devin Smeltzer outright to Triple-A Jacksonville, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That indicates he passed through waivers unclaimed after being designated for assignment last week.
The transaction hardly comes as a surprise, as this is the fourth time this year that Smeltzer has been to this rodeo. He signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in the offseason and has been selected to the roster four times, whenever the club’s regular staff is taxed and they need an emergency arm. Since he’s out of options, the Fish have repeatedly designated him for assignment shortly after adding him to roster. Each instance has resulted in him passing through waivers and accepting an outright assignment, waiting for his next turn.
Amid those transactions, he’s managed to toss 22 1/3 innings over nine appearances, posting a 6.45 ERA in that time with a 16% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate. He’s also made 18 Triple-A starts this year with a 6.36 ERA, 17.5% strikeout rate and 12.1% walk rate. He also pitched for the Twins in the previous four seasons and now has a career ERA of 4.32 in 162 1/3 big league innings.
Smeltzer has the right to reject this assignment and elect free agency, though it hasn’t been officially announced if he has done so or not. Based on precedent, it seems fair to expect him to accept to accept and he’s listed on Jacksonville’s roster page.
Marlins Select Daniel Castano
The Marlins have selected the contract of left-hander Daniel Castano from Triple-A, according to Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (X link). Southpaw Enmanuel De Jesus will be optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville in the corresponding transaction.
The move brings a fresh arm into Miami’s bullpen, as De Jesus tossed 4 1/3 innings in yesterday’s 8-4 loss to the Phillies. This marked De Jesus’ Major League debut, as the Fish only selected him to their active roster on Friday. After that cup of coffee in the Show, De Jesus will head back to Triple-A to be replaced by Castano, whose participation in the 2023 season has also consisted of a single game — one inning of work way back on April 7.
Castano saw more significant action with the Marlins in 2020-22, as he tossed 85 2/3 innings while starting 17 of 22 games during that three-season stretch (while posting a 3.89 ERA). Since Miami will be using a bullpen game against the Phillies today, Castano looks to be in line for some multi-inning work, or perhaps will just be on hand to provide some extra depth.
Over 57 2/3 innings with Jacksonville this season, Castano has started eight of 18 appearances, posting a 4.06 ERA, a 22.36% strikeout rate, and 8.94% walk rate while also battling some injuries. The Marlins have also twice designated the lefty for assignment and outrighted him off their 40-man roster in 2023, with Castano foregoing a chance at free agency to accept the outright assignment back in June.
Marlins Outright Geoff Hartlieb
The Marlins have sent reliever Geoff Hartlieb outright to Triple-A Jacksonville, according to his transaction log at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment on Wednesday.
Hartlieb pitched only twice for Miami since his contract was selected in early August. He threw four innings of one-run ball with three strikeouts and walks apiece. The 29-year-old righty has spent the bulk of the season in Jacksonville after signing an offseason minor league pact. He has performed well in a hitter-friendly environment, working to a 3.29 ERA while striking out over a quarter of opponents through 38 1/3 innings.
A former 29th round pick of the Pirates, Hartlieb has logged parts of four big league seasons between Pittsburgh, the Mets and Miami. He has a 7.17 ERA in 70 1/3 MLB frames. He has a far better 3.86 ERA in parts of four seasons at the Triple-A level.
Hartlieb has been outrighted twice in his career, meaning he can decline this assignment in favor of free agency. If he chooses to stick with Miami, he’d qualify for minor league free agency at the beginning of the offseason unless the Fish call him back to the majors.
Marlins To Designate Devin Smeltzer, Select Enmanuel De Jesus
The Marlins plan to designate left-hander Devin Smeltzer for assignment prior to today’s game, reports Noah Berger of Fish On First. Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base adds that Smeltzer’s spot on the roster will go to southpaw Enmanuel De Jesus, whose contract is being selected from Triple-A Jacksonville.
This marks a jarring fourth DFA of the season for Smeltzer, who signed a minor league contract with Miami over the winter. He’s had his contract selected to the big league roster on four different occasions but been jettisoned to waivers after a brief stay in each instance. Most recently Smeltzer mopped up 3 2/3 innings in yesterday’s blowout loss to the Dodgers. Pitching on his 28th birthday, Smeltzer came into a 6-0 game and was tagged for four runs, though he spared the Marlins from depleting their bullpen in a game that was largely out of hand before he took the mound. In 22 1/3 innings this year, Smeltzer has a 6.45 ERA.
Smeltzer, a former Dodgers draft pick, went to the Twins as part of a Brian Dozier trade and spent parts of four seasons with Minnesota, pitching to a combined 3.99 ERA in 140 innings of work. That includes 70 1/3 frames of 3.71 ERA ball last year, though that success came with a tepid 13.9% strikeout rate. Smeltzer has never missed many bats at the MLB level, evidenced by a career 16.5% strikeout rate, but he’s also only walked 6% of his opponents — a far better-than-average mark. Overall, he has a 4.32 ERA in 162 1/3 big league innings. He’ll be placed back on waivers for a fourth time within the next five days.
De Jesus, 26, will make his big league debut the first time he takes the mound. Originally a Red Sox signee, he spent the 2022 season in the Giants’ minor league system and signed a minor league pact with the Marlins over the winter. He’s pitched 87 minor league frames for the Fish this year (all but seven coming in Triple-A), logging a 4.86 ERA with a 17% strikeout rate, 12.4% walk rate and 40% ground-ball rate.
In parts of three seasons at the Triple-A level, De Jesus has worked to a 4.69 earned run average. He’s been working out of the rotation in Jacksonville and could give Miami some length in the bullpen. The Marlins also still have Sunday’s starter listed as TBD, so De Jesus could potentially be an option that day if he’s not used in relief prior to that contest.
Marlins Place Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Soler On IL
The Marlins announced that they have placed right-hander Sandy Alcantara on the 15-day injured list with a right forearm flexor strain. Also, outfielder/designated hitter Jorge Soler going on the 10-day injured list due to a right oblique strain and right-hander Geoff Hartlieb has been designated for assignment. Outfielder Dane Myers and right-hander Edward Cabrera have been recalled while left-hander Devin Smeltzer had his contract selected.
It’s a batch of unfortunate and ill-timed news for the Marlins, who are in the thick of a playoff race. They haven’t qualified for the playoffs in a full season since 2003 but have a chance this year, currently just half a game behind the Reds for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The club hasn’t provided any specifics about the expected absences but it seems possible they might have to undergo the rest of the race without either their best pitcher or their best power hitter.
Alcantara is one of the best pitchers in the sport when at his peak, which he showed last year. He finished 2022 with a 2.28 earned run average over 228 2/3 innings, earning the National League Cy Young in the process. He struck out 23.4% of batters, walked just 5.6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 53.4% rate. Here in 2023, his ERA has jumped to 4.14, but he seemed to have righted the ship after a rough start. He had a 5.08 ERA through June 21 but has a much more palatable 3.13 ERA since then. Soler, meanwhile, is an incredibly inconsistent hitter but is one of the best in the league when on a heater. He has 35 home runs this year and is slashing .240/.329/.513 overall for a wRC+ of 124.
Subtracting that arm from the pitching staff and that bat from the lineup is obviously less than ideal, especially when considering the timing. There’s just over three weeks remaining in the regular season, which doesn’t give either player much time to get healthy before it could be too late. Further updates will undoubtedly come after more tests, but both injuries are worrisome. Oblique strains are notoriously frustrating and can often keep players sidelined for weeks, even in mild cases.
A flexor strain, meanwhile, can be even more serious. Both Dustin May of the Dodgers and Drew Rasmussen of the Rays were diagnosed with flexor strains earlier this year before each required season-ending surgery. That’s not to say that Alcantara is necessarily going to follow the same path, but it shows the potential severity of today’s news.
Looking ahead to the winter, Alcantara won’t be significantly impacted from a financial perspective as he signed an extension that runs through 2026 with a club option for 2027. Soler, on the other hand, has one year and $9MM remaining on his deal but can opt out at season’s end. Assuming he is healthy, he should be able to top that guarantee on the open market based on his strong season and the lack of impact bats available this winter.
For now, it seems as though Cabrera will jump into the rotation to replace Alcantara. The 25-year-old posted a 4.79 ERA in 17 starts earlier this year, with an unsightly 15.4% walk rate, before getting optioned down to the minors. In five Triple-A starts since then, he has a 2.22 ERA with a 10.6% walk rate that’s still high but a marked improvement over his major league results this year.
Hartlieb, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in the offseason and had his contract selected a month ago. He’s only been able to get into two big league games in that time, spending much of it on optional assignment. He has a 3.29 ERA in 38 1/3 Triple-A innings this year, with a 25.3% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He has less than two years of service time but will be out of options next year. The Marlins will place him on waivers in the coming days. If he were to clear, he would have the right to elect free agency by virtue of having a previous career outright.
Smeltzer, 27, signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in the offseason and has been on and off their roster all year. This is the fourth time the club has selected his contract this season, with each of the previous three instances eventually resulting in him being designated for assignment and accepting an outright assignment. He’s tossed 18 2/3 innings for the club this year with a 5.79 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 4.8% walk rate and 32.8% ground ball rate.
Craig Mish and Jordan McPherson, both of the Miami Herald, relayed the details of these transactions prior to the official club announcement.
MLBTR Poll: The Crowded NL Wild Card Race
Despite Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds giving Atlanta (100%), Los Angeles (100%), Milwaukee (98.7%), Philadelphia (96.3%), and Chicago (78%) better than 75% odds of making the playoffs, play in the National League closed this evening with the NL Wild Card race looking as tight as ever thanks to the third and final spot.
Four teams sport winning percentages of .511, putting all of them in an effective tie for the third Wild Card spot behind the Phillies and Cubs. With less than a month to go in the schedule, it’s increasingly likely that only one of Arizona, Cincinnati, Miami, and San Francisco will join the aforementioned five clubs in the postseason this year. Let’s take a look at each of those four clubs, as things stand for them headed into the stretch run:
San Francisco Giants, 70-67 (48.9% playoff odds)
The Giants established themselves as contenders back in June with a fantastic 18-8 record that month and have managed to stay within spitting distance of a playoff spot ever since. Unfortunately for San Francisco, that excellent June is the last month the club posted a winning record. The club has gone just 24-31 since the beginning of July, with their playoff odds dropping from 69.2% down to 47.8% during that stretch. Injuries to key players like Michael Conforto and Anthony DeSclafani have left the club playing at less than full strength, but a bigger problem for the club is the rapidly declining offense: since July 1, the club’s 77 wRC+ is the second worst figure in the majors ahead of only the Rockies.
On the other hand, the club sports a strong if unconventional pitching staff highlighted by ace Logan Webb, veteran Alex Cobb, rookie Kyle Harrison, and closer Camilo Doval that is further bolstered by the excellent defense provided by rookie catcher Patrick Bailey. With that solid run prevention group, it’s easy to see how the Giants could make the playoffs if key offensive contributors like Joc Pederson, Lamonte Wade Jr. and Thairo Estrada can return to the success they showed earlier in the season. Outside of seven games against the Dodgers, San Francisco’s remaining schedule is fairly soft, which should help them in their pursuit of the final NL playoff spot.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 70-67 (33.3% playoff odds)
A surprise early season contender, the Diamondbacks dominated the NL West throughout the first half, holding sole possession of first place in their division as late into the season as July 8 thanks to a strong offensive core of Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker along with a strong pair of starters at the top of their rotation in righties Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Unfortunately for Arizona, their hold on the division lead would vanish over the next month as the club posted a 5-21 record over their next 26 games that was nothing short of disastrous. Despite the trade deadline coming directly in the middle of that awful stretch, Arizona’s front office added outfielder Tommy Pham and closer Paul Sewald to the floundering club, and the team has responded by going 13-7 since their skid came to an end.
With all of the club’s key players healthy headed into the stretch run, the Diamondbacks are perhaps the biggest question mark in this race. Was their brutal month of play, where they looked like one of the worst teams in baseball, simply a fluke? Or was it the beginning of the end for an underdog team projected for a 78-84 record when the season began? With 12 of their final 25 games coming against teams with a record of .500 or better, Arizona won’t have a particularly easy schedule to make use of as they try to secure their first playoff berth since 2017.
Miami Marlins, 70-67 (26.5% playoff odds)
The Marlins’ 2023 campaign has been a strange one. Earlier in the year, the club was carried by the bats of Luis Arraez and Jorge Soler and a historic record in one-run games. Much like the last two teams discussed, the months of July and August were difficult for Miami, as the club posted a record of just 19-32 while Soler (.697 OPS in July) and Arraez (.580 OPS in August) slumped badly. Fortunately, the club received offensive reinforcements at the trade deadline in the form of Jake Burger and Josh Bell, both of whom have posted strong results since joining the Marlins. What’s more, Alcantara has looked more like himself of late, with a 3.04 ERA in his last 77 innings of work.
While Soler hasn’t played in recent days due to injury, the offense is in a good place thanks to the contributions of Burger and Bell, while the rotation led by Alcantara, Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, and Edward Cabrera has been characteristically excellent. Perhaps Miami’s biggest obstacle in returning to the postseason for the first time since 2020 is the schedule: of the club’s final 25 games, the Marlins will face the Brewers, Dodgers, Braves and Phillies in sixteen of them.
Cincinnati Reds, 71-68 (16% playoff odds)
The Reds are perhaps the most surprising team of this quartet. The club’s success this season has been fueled almost entirely by a youth movement that began early in the season. While shortstop Elly De La Cruz hasn’t quite been the offensive force he was expected to be in his rookie season, infielder Matt McLain and starter Andrew Abbott have been nothing short of sensational. What’s more, other youngsters like Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Brandon Williamson have contributed in significant ways, to say nothing of contributions from more established players like TJ Friedl, Hunter Greene, Joey Votto, and Alexis Diaz.
While the Reds slumped badly to a 10-17 record in August, only six of the club’s final 23 games are against clubs with a record better than .500, given them plenty of opportunity to go on a run. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, between a rash of injuries and an outbreak of COVID-19, the Reds have a whopping 16 players on the injured list, including key players like Greene, McLain, Williamson, and Votto. With a pair of the club’s biggest bats and most reliable rotation arms out of commission for the foreseeable future, the Reds’ outlook is far hazier than it otherwise may have been.
———————
How does the readership of MLBTR think the race for the final NL Wild Card will shake out over the next month? Will one of the NL West clubs hold on to claim the spot that for much of the season they looked to be a shoo-in for? Will the Marlins overcome their brutal September schedule to emerge victorious? Or can the Reds navigate a wave of injuries to squeak into the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2013?
(poll link for app users)
Which Team Will Make The Playoffs?
-
San Francisco Giants 30% (1,027)
-
Arizona Diamondbacks 25% (849)
-
Cincinnati Reds 23% (774)
-
Miami Marlins 13% (430)
-
More than one; one of the other five will miss the playoffs. 10% (331)
Total votes: 3,411
Orioles Claim Jorge Lopez From Marlins
The Orioles have reunited with Jorge Lopez, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post (X link) reports that Baltimore has claimed the right-hander off waivers from the Marlins. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reported earlier today that Lopez looked like the odd man out on the Marlins’ roster in some capacity, as the Fish needed to create roster space for Johnny Cueto‘s activation from the 15-day injured list. The Orioles designated right-hander Logan Gillaspie for assignment to create a spot for Lopez on the 40-man roster.
Lopez’s tenure in Miami ends after a little more than two months, as the Fish acquired the righty from the Twins in late July in a one-for-one swap for Dylan Floro. In hindsight, it was a deal that hasn’t really worked out for either club, as neither reliever recaptured their old form after donning a new uniform. Floro has posted a 6.30 ERA over 10 innings in Minnesota, while Lopez had even greater struggles, delivering only a 9.26 ERA in 11 2/3 innings for Miami.
It was a little over a year ago that Lopez was an All-Star, by dint of his outstanding 1.68 ERA over his first 48 1/3 innings pitched of the 2022 season as a member of the Orioles. Given Lopez’s unimpressive career track record prior to 2022, however, Baltimore saw him less as a breakout star and more as a sell-high trade chip, so the O’s moved Lopez to the Twins at last year’s trade deadline. Speaking of trade hindsight, that swap has already become an infamous move for Twins fans, as Yennier Cano was one of the four prospects sent back to the Orioles in return for Lopez.
While the Orioles front office took some heat at the time for dealing an All-Star closer (or being deadline sellers in general) when the club was contending for a playoff spot, those criticisms have certainly diminished given Cano’s breakout and Lopez’s lack of success basically since the moment he left Camden Yards. The O’s now hope that Lopez can rediscover some of his 2022 magic to help a bullpen trying to get by without injured closer Felix Bautista. Lopez isn’t going to step back into a ninth-inning role, of course, but he could provide some depth behind Cano and Danny Couloumbe as the temporary late-game closing duo. The Orioles will be using Lopez for the stretch drive alone, as he isn’t eligible for postseason play since he was acquired after September 1.
Is there hope for a Lopez bounce-back? Unsurprisingly, his metrics have dropped off sharply in most categories from 2022 to 2023, as his big advances in strikeouts and limiting hard contact have both fallen back to earth. Lopez threw his sinker 50.5% of the time in 2022 and got plus results, though the pitch has now become much less effective, with Lopez throwing it only 34% of the time this season. The righty has instead increased the use of his four-seamer to pretty disastrous results, as opposing batters have been teeing off on the pitch to the tune of a .400 batting average.
Rediscovering the All-Star version of Lopez may not be as simple as a change in pitch arsenal, but the Orioles are taking a relatively inexpensive plunge in hoping that he can provide at least adequate relief. In making the waiver claim, the O’s pick up the roughly $578K remaining on Lopez’s $3.525MM salary for 2023. The 30-year-old is also eligible for arbitration one final time this winter, though it seems likely that he’ll be non-tendered. The fact that the Orioles (who have one of baseball’s best records) were even able to claim Lopez is a further sign of how his star has fallen in a year’s time, as it means that just about every other team in the league passed on Lopez before he was available for Baltimore to claim.
Since Lopez surely wouldn’t have been tendered a deal from the Marlins, the move provides a bit of salary relief for the Fish as they get an early jump on some offseason business. It also allows Cueto to return without any further roster maneuvering, as Cueto is set to start today against Washington in his first outing since August 15. The veteran righty has been sidelined due to a viral infection that scratched him from his previous start, and eventually required a 15-day IL stint to give Cueto time to fully recover.
Gillaspie made his MLB debut in May 2022, and has since been shuttled back and forth several times between the Orioles’ big league roster and Triple-A Norfolk. The right-hander had a 3.12 ERA over 17 1/3 innings in 2022 but only a 6.00 ERA in nine frames of action this year, and his career Triple-A line sits at a 4.90 ERA over 71 2/3 innings, with a 23.08% strikeout rate and an 8.01% walk rate. An undrafted player who broke in with the Brewers’ farm system in 2018, Gillaspie has been a member of Baltimore’s farm system since 2021.