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Twins, Marlins Swap Luis Arraez For Pablo Lopez In Four-Player Trade

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Months of rumors about the Marlins’ rotation have finally resulted in some action, as the Marlins have traded right-hander Pablo Lopez, top infield prospect Jose Salas and outfield prospect Byron Chourio to the Twins in exchange for reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez, per announcements from both clubs.

The core of the trade, for immediate purposes, will see the Twins swap out three years of Arraez for two seasons of Lopez, who’ll immediately be an upgrade to their rotation. The 26-year-old Lopez has come into his own as a quality big league starter over the past three seasons, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate and a 47.4% ground-ball rate in 340 innings.

Lopez has dealt with some injury issues in his career, thrice landing on the injured list due to shoulder strains. The most recent of those three injuries came in the summer of 2021 and wiped out more than two months of Lopez’s season, but he was injury-free in 2022 when pitching to a career-high 180 innings over the life of 32 starts. Last year’s performance netted Lopez a still eminently affordable $5.45MM salary. He’ll be due one more raise in arbitration in the 2023-24 offseason before reaching free agency following the 2024 campaign — barring an extension, of course.

The newly acquired Lopez will step into a Twins rotation that also includes Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle. Though it was easy to wonder whether Lopez could push Kenta Maeda into a bullpen role after he missed the entire 2022 season on the heels of internal brace surgery on his right elbow in Sept. 2021, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes tweets that Maeda will remain a starter.

The likeliest odd man out of conventional five-man rotation is 27-year-old Bailey Ober, but the towering righty has pitched to a sharp 3.82 ERA in 31 starts to begin his big league career — including a 3.21 mark in 56 innings last season. (Ober missed more than three months due to a severe groin strain.) Alternatively, the Twins could look to deploy a six-man rotation that would help them manage Maeda’s workload and hopefully lead to better health among a starting staff that was generally hampered by injury throughout the 2022 season.

Meanwhile, with Arraez now subtracted from the Twins’ lineup, they’ll lose their leadoff man, one of their best hitters and one of their primary options at first base and designated hitter. His departure likely opens the door for 25-year-old Alex Kirilloff to slot in as the primary first baseman. Kirilloff, a former first-round pick, ranked as one of the sport’s 10 to 15 best prospects prior to his big league debut, but he’s now undergone wrist surgery in each of the past two seasons, derailing the start to his career. There’s quite a bit of upside there, but quite a bit of risk as well. It’s always possible the Twins look to add another established hitter to help soften the blow of losing Arraez, but the first base and DH markets in free agency have been largely picked over, so if that’s the route they choose, it’ll likely have to come via another trade.

On the other side of the swap, the Marlins will get a left-handed bat to help balance out a heavily right-handed lineup. Arraez brings to Miami perhaps the most impeccable bat-to-ball skills in Major League Baseball, having fanned in just 8.3% of his plate appearances since debuting as a 22-year-old back in 2019. He doesn’t walk at an especially high clip, but Arraez’s mark of 8.7% is still higher than both his strikeout rate and this past season’s league-average 8.2% walk rate.

Arraez, 26 in April, hit .316/.375/.420 with a career-high eight home runs in 2022 and is a lifetime .314/.374/.410 hitter in the Major Leagues. His contact skills are second to none and will likely always allow him to hit for a high average, but the rest of his game is rather limited. Arraez is lacking in power, evidenced by a career .096 ISO (slugging minus batting average), and his average sprint speed is below average, per Statcast.

While he debuted as a second baseman, defensive struggles have left Arraez as something of a position-less nomad. He’s bounced between second base, first base, third base and left field, delivering lackluster defensive grades at each of those spots other than first base. He’ll primarily play second base in Miami, with general manager Kim Ng subsequently announcing that Jazz Chisholm Jr. is moving to center field.

Like Lopez, Arraez has some worrying injury issues on his resume. A torn ACL during his prospect days torched his 2017 season, and he’s been on the injured list three times since Opening Day 2020 due to knee troubles as well. Arraez also spent a week on the 7-day concussion IL in 2021 and missed nearly three weeks of that season due to a shoulder strain.

Arraez is arbitration-eligible for the second time this offseason and, as a Super Two player, still has two years of arbitration remaining beyond the current campaign. He and the Twins couldn’t come to terms on an agreement prior to last week’s deadline to exchange arbitration figures; the Twins filed at a $5MM mark, while Arraez’s camp countered with a $6.1MM submission. Now that he’s with a new team, it’s possible Arraez could agree to a one-year deal somewhere between those points, or perhaps even discuss a lengthier pact. If not, his subsequent arbitration raises will take his salary north of $10MM by his final year of club control, in 2025.

For the Marlins, dropping Lopez from the rotation positions them to deploy a starting five of Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett, with several intriguing arms still waiting in the wings behind that quintet. Arraez will deepen and strengthen what’s been a lackluster Miami lineup, and the organization’s rotation depth is strong enough to withstand the loss of Lopez.

There’s little doubting, however, that the defense will suffer from both the acquisition of Arraez and last week’s trade of Miguel Rojas. The Marlins now look set to play Joey Wendle at shortstop, while Chisholm will have to learn a brand new center field position on the fly. Overall, the gambit of dropping Rojas and adding Arraez in the name of balancing and improving the lineup could have the unfortunate side effect of dropping Miami from a middle-of-the-pack defensive club to one of the worst in the National League.

The prospects in the deal are both long-term plays for the Twins, making them somewhat curious secondary pieces for a team that’s clearly bidding for immediate contention in the wake of their stunning deal to re-sign Carlos Correa. That said, recent trades for Mahle, Gray and others have thinned out the Twins’ system in considerable fashion, so backfilling with some youthful talent helps straddle the line of building for both the short- and long-term.

Salas is particularly well regarded, originally signing for a $2.8MM bonus and currently ranking fourth in Miami’s system at Baseball America. He’s a shortstop for the time being, though BA’s scouting report suggests a move to third base is possible, depending on the extent to which his still-lean frame grows. The switch-hitting Salas batted .250/.339/.384 against vastly older competition in 2022, splitting the year between Class-A and Class-A Advanced despite only turning 19 this past April.

Salas connected on nine homers and swiped 33 bases in 109 games. Scouting reports on Salas tout his work ethic, his feel for contact and the potential for at least average power. He’ll immediately become one of the Twins’ top overall prospects, but he won’t add any value to their 2023 club (aside from perhaps giving them more flexibility when it comes to negotiating additional trades).

Chourio is even younger, having just signed as an amateur out of Venezuela one year and five days ago. Despite playing the season at just 17 years old, the switch-hitting outfielder took the Dominican Summer League by storm, raking at a .344/.429/.410 clip with a homer, nine doubles, 19 steals and nearly as many walks (25) as strikeouts (27) in 217 plate appearances.

Chourio won’t even turn 18 until May, so even wildly optimistic projections would have him three years away from being a legitimate big league possibility, and it’s quite likely that he’s even further off than that. Still, there’s plenty to like about him despite the lack of proximity to the Majors. In addition to his eye-catching pro debut, Baseball America’s Ben Badler touted Chourio’s physical projection, strong throwing arm, center field instincts and balanced swing when reviewing the Marlins’ international signing class last year.

Today’s trade puts an end to months of speculation and rumors regarding Lopez, who finally knows where he’ll spend at least the next two seasons of his career. It remains possible, given Miami’s depth and the needs they have elsewhere on the roster, that they could further tap into that group in an effort to bolster the lineup and reshape an increasingly questionable defense. On the Twins’ end of things, Lopez isn’t clearly better than any of their in-house options, but they’ll add another mid-rotation arm to a starting staff deep in comparable talents, helping to safeguard against injury and adding some stability beyond the current season, when each of Gray, Mahle and Maeda can become free agents. They’ll also restock a farm system that’s been taxed by recent trades, but the swap feels more like a next step than the final piece of an offseason puzzle.

Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic first reported the two teams were progressing toward a deal involving Arraez and Lopez. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the deal was done. Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald reported the names of the two prospects going back to Minnesota (Twitter links).

Marlins To Move Jazz Chisholm To Center Field

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The Marlins made their long-awaited swap of a starting pitcher for a hitter this afternoon, sending Pablo López to Minnesota as part of a deal for Luis Arraez. Shortly after the trade was finalized, Miami general manager Kim Ng told reporters (including Craig Mish of SportsGrid) the newly-acquired infielder would take over as the primary second baseman. All-Star Jazz Chisholm Jr. will move from the keystone to center field.

It’s an interesting gambit for Miami, who’ll indirectly address their uncertain center field mix with today’s trade. Arraez has plenty of experience as a second baseman. He came up through the minors at the position and has logged more MLB innings there than at any other position. Over parts of four seasons, Arraez has spent a bit more than 1200 innings at the keystone.

Public defensive metrics have been mixed on his effectiveness. Defense Runs Saved rated him as nine runs below average in just 390 innings there as a rookie in 2019. Over the three seasons since then, DRS has pegged him as a slightly better than average second baseman. Statcast hasn’t been quite so optimistic. While it also feels he’s improved since a poor rookie showing — an estimated -7 runs in 2019 — it has rated him a little below par in two of the last three years.

Statcast has graded Arraez’s arm strength as slightly above-average for the position. Scouts have raised questions about his lateral quickness and athleticism since his time as a prospect, though. Minnesota pushed him primarily to first base work last season, starting him 31 times at the keystone compared to 60 times at first base (with a handful of games at third also mixed in). Of course, Minnesota’s signing of Carlos Correa solidified shortstop and ensured Jorge Polanco would play almost exclusively at second base. The Twins felt more comfortable with Polanco’s glove than Arraez’s up the middle, but it’s possible they’d have given the latter more second base time if they hadn’t landed one of the sport’s best shortstops.

It does come as a surprise to see Miami move Chisholm out of the middle infield. The 24-year-old (25 next month) established himself as the organization’s top position player with a .254/.325/.535 first half before suffering a season-ending stress fracture in his back. He also later underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee.

Signed as a shortstop prospect out of the Bahamas, Chisholm has only ever played the middle infield as a professional. He’ll take on the outfield on the fly during the upcoming season, with a month-plus of Spring Training action to acclimate to the new position.

With zero outfield experience, it’s impossible to know how Chisholm will take to the different reads and angles he’ll need to learn as an outfielder. Miami is clearly confident he’ll polish those aspects of his game quickly while relying on his elite athleticism in the interim. Chisholm was long credited by scouts with plus speed, and Statcast placed him in the league’s 94th percentile in that regard last season. He would’ve tied for 19th among 74 center fielders in sprint speed, so he certainly shouldn’t have issue covering the spacious outfield at Marlins Park from that perspective.

Prospect evaluators also praised Chisholm for an above-average throwing arm. He hasn’t shown that at the MLB level, though it’s not fair to compare his throwing speeds as a second baseman to those of center fielders. Chisholm obviously had quicker releases and much shorter distances to throw on the right side of the infield than he will from center field.

It’s a gamble for the Fish nonetheless, given the challenge of projecting how quickly he’ll develop the kind of reads needed to be a solid defensive center fielder. Yet it’s one Miami will take after missing out on their chances to directly upgrade the position from outside the organization. The free agent market at the position was mostly limited to depth players beyond Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger and Kevin Kiermaier. Trades only offered a few more obvious candidates, with the Pirates sticking to a massive asking price on Bryan Reynolds and even reports of a somewhat significant ask from the Royals on a glove-first option like Michael A. Taylor.

Rather than run things back with players like Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz and JJ Bleday — all of whom are better suited in the corner outfield — they’ll turn things over to Chisholm. Their younger outfielders will vie for a spot in the corner opposite Avisaíl García, while Arraez looks like to be joined by Joey Wendle, Jean Segura and Garrett Cooper in the primary infield.

Marlins Notes: Meyer, Eder, Sanchez

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The Marlins’ rotation has been a common point of discussion this offseason, with Miami considering ways to deal veteran pitching as a means of addressing the offense. The main impetus for the front office is their stockpile of arms, a group that includes a few talented young pitchers working back from serious injuries.

Former third overall pick Max Meyer cemented himself as one of the sport’s top prospects before his call-up last July. The organization’s excitement for that debut turned quickly, as the 23-year-old blew out his elbow during his second big league start. He required Tommy John surgery a couple weeks later.

As he nears the six-month mark in his recovery, Meyer updated Kyle Sielaff of the Hot Stove Show on his progress. The right-hander indicated he’s built up arm strength and hopes to be able to start throwing next month. “I think early February — even February 1 — is when I’m going to start throwing,” Meyer told Sielaff. “Been starting to get the elbow moving a little bit. … When Spring Training rolls around, I’ll be throwing with all those guys — I don’t know with the team or not — but I’ll be throwing. It’s coming up here pretty soon.”

The young starter will surely take things slowly, with Christina De Nicola of MLB.com writing that he’s expected to begin with a long toss program once he’s again able to throw. De Nicola adds that general manager Kim Ng indicated last month Meyer was likely to miss the entire 2023 season rehabbing from the procedure, which often comes with a recovery time pushing or exceeding 14 months. There’s no indication that timeline has changed — he’ll certainly need multiple months to gradually build back into game shape from the first time he can pick up a ball — but it’s encouraging he seems to be progressing well thus far.

Meyer isn’t Miami’s only touted young pitcher working back from Tommy John. Left-hander Jake Eder had broken out as one of the more interesting arms in the minors through 15 excellent Double-A starts early in the 2021 campaign. The Vanderbilt product blew out and underwent TJS at the end of August that year; he missed all of last season recovering. De Nicola writes that Eder, who first began throwing roughly 10 months after the operation, is expected to be at full strength for Spring Training.

Eder is not yet on the 40-man roster and will surely begin the upcoming season at an upper minor league affiliate. Those 15 Double-A starts are the 24-year-old’s only professional experience, and the organization has the MLB pitching depth to not rush Eder to the big leagues. If his stuff returns at pre-surgery levels and he again thrives in the upper minors, it seems possible he could put himself on the radar for a call-up later in the season.

Sixto Sánchez, meanwhile, has now lost two consecutive seasons to shoulder issues. Still just 24, the former top prospect and centerpiece of the J.T. Realmuto trade has fallen down the Miami depth chart in the wake of those injuries. Sánchez underwent arthroscopic surgery on the shoulder last October, with the club announcing at the time he was expected back for Spring Training. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald provides a reasonably promising update, writing that Sánchez has been throwing bullpen sessions of late. Backstop Nick Fortes, who recently caught one of Sánchez’s workouts, expressed optimism about the young pitcher’s form heading into exhibition play.

Marlins Designate Daniel Castano For Assignment

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The Marlins have designated left-hander Daniel Castano for assignment, tweets Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base (Twitter link). Castano’s spot on the roster will go to right-hander Johnny Cueto, whose previously reported one-year, $8.5MM contract has now been made official. Cueto was formally introduced this morning at Miami’s loanDepot Park.

Castano, 28, was one of four players the Marlins acquired in the heist that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis, coming to Miami alongside Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen (since traded for Jazz Chisholm Jr.) and Magneuris Sierra. The left-hander has appeared in each of the past three seasons with the Marlins, logging a combined 3.89 ERA in 85 2/3 innings of work.

That solid ERA, however, has been accompanied by a 12% strikeout rate that ranks as the lowest of any pitcher in baseball dating back to 2020 (min. 80 innings). Castano has partially offset that lack of missed bats with a better-than-average 7.5% walk rate, a solid 44.7% ground-ball rate and a repeated knack for avoiding hard contact; his career 87.6 mph exit velocity, 7% barrel rate, 35.9% hard-hit rate (all as measured by Statcast) are each better than those of the average MLB hurler. Still, fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.86) and SIERA (5.28) are more bearish on the left-hander than his more rudimentary ERA.

Castano’s 12.8% strikeout rate in the big leagues this past season was right in line with his career mark, but that’s a bit odd to see, given that he also overhauled his pitch mix and experienced a sharp uptick in strikeouts in Triple-A. Castano moved away from his four-seamer and sinker in favor of a cutter that he tossed at a hefty 41% clip. In Triple-A, the shift in his repertoire perhaps contributed to a career-best 26.4% strikeout rate. That wasn’t necessarily in a tiny sample, either; Castano’s 34 Triple-A frames were almost an exact match for his 35 2/3 Major League innings. It stands to reason, then, that even if Castano won’t see his MLB strikeout rate climb to quite those same heights, there’s perhaps reason to believe there’s more bat-missing ability in the tank than he’s shown in the Majors just yet.

Unfortunately for Castano, injuries robbed him of the chance to display more of that new-look cutter down the stretch. Castano landed on the shelf with a concussion in late July after being struck in the head by a 104 mph liner, and while he was working his back from that frightening scene, the Marlins discovered a small tear in his shoulder. He didn’t require surgery but also did not pitch again in 2022.

The Marlins will now have a week to trade Castano or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. He’s out of minor league options, so any team that acquires him will need to carry him on the roster or else try to pass Castano through waivers themselves. That said, he’s a lefty with a starter’s pedigree and some success in the upper minors, solid command and weak contact rates in the big leagues, and a somewhat intriguing new pitch that he began to lean on this past season. He can also be controlled for five more seasons. It’s certainly feasible that a pitching-needy club could place a claim or work out a small trade to acquire Castano.

David Phelps Announces Retirement

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Right-hander David Phelps is retiring, he announced this evening through his agents at Wasserman (Twitter link). Phelps thanked his former teammates, coaches, medical staff, agency and family as well as all the organizations for which he played in a lengthy statement.

A Notre Dame product, Phelps cracked the professional ranks a 14th-round selection of the Yankees in 2008. A few seasons of strong minor league performance garnered him some prospect attention as a potential back-end starter. He reached the big leagues for the first time in April 2012, kicking off a rookie season in which he’d post a 3.34 ERA through 99 2/3 innings. Phelps also pitched three times for New York that postseason, logging 3 1/3 innings in what would prove his only career playoff action.

Phelps started 11 of 33 outings for New York that year and held a similar swing role for the next couple seasons. For the first three seasons of his career, he’d toss 299 1/3 innings with the Yankees over 87 appearances (40 starts). He posted a cumulative 4.21 ERA while holding opponents to a .251/.330/.399 slash. Over the 2014-15 offseason, New York dealt Phelps and infielder Martín Prado to the Marlins for Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones and then Low-A pitcher Domingo Germán, who’s still a Yankee more than eight years later.

During his first season with the Fish, Phelps remained primarily a rotation member. He started 19 of 23 outings, working to a 4.50 ERA. By his second season in South Florida, he’d moved almost exclusively to relief. That kicked off a second act as a generally reliable bullpen arm. Phelps posted a 2.28 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout percentage over 86 2/3 innings in 2016. After throwing another 47 frames with a 3.45 ERA in the next season’s first half, he changed organizations for a second time.

The Mariners acquired Phelps in a deadline deal that sent four prospects to Miami. Three of those players never reached the big leagues, but the Marlins’ acquisition of then High-A righty Pablo López turned out exceptionally well. The trade wasn’t especially successful for the Mariners, as Phelps pitched just 10 times before suffering an injury to his throwing elbow. He first underwent surgery to remove bone chips from the joint, then unfortunately required a Tommy John reconstruction that cost him the entire 2018 campaign.

Phelps hit free agency for the first time that offseason, landing with the Blue Jays on a buy-low $2.5MM pact. Once he returned to health, he proved a single middle-innings option for Toronto. Phelps performed well in 17 appearances before being traded to the Cubs at the deadline for Tom Hatch. He had a fine second half before again hitting free agency when Chicago declined a club option for 2020.

The past three seasons have seen the Missouri native continue to bounce around the league. He signed a one-year guarantee with Milwaukee going into 2020 and was dealt to the Phillies for a trio of minor league pitchers at the deadline. Phelps was hit hard in his limited time with Philadelphia, leading the club to decline an option. He returned to Toronto on a one-year deal over the offseason and got off to a brilliant start through mid-May.

Injuries again intervened, though, as Phelps suffered a rupture of his right lat. That required season-ending surgery, one which Phelps acknowledged he initially believed would end his career. He was fortunately able to rehab and got another shot on a minor league deal with Toronto last offseason. He cracked the MLB roster out of camp for what’d be his third season as a Blue Jay.

Phelps would conclude his career with a flourish. He stayed healthy all year, a significant accomplishment in its own right given the injury he’d suffered the season before. Phelps posted his best numbers since his Miami days, providing the Jays 63 2/3 innings of 2.83 ERA ball through 65 appearances. That’d quite likely have earned him another MLB contract this winter if he wanted to return for an 11th season. Phelps indicated he’d known by the end of last season he was finished playing, however.

He spent a decade and a half in the professional ranks, including the past 10 years at the MLB level. Over 682 2/3 career frames, he posted a 3.80 ERA while striking out 22.9% of opposing hitters. In addition to his 67 starts, he finished out 45 games (including seven saves). Phelps held 78 leads as a middle reliever or setup option, suiting up for seven organizations. Baseball Reference calculated his career earnings a hair above $15MM. MLBTR congratulates Phelps on a long and accomplished career and wishes him all the best in his post-playing days.

Rangers, Marlins Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar

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Outfielder Jurickson Profar is one of the top free agents that still remains unsigned and he is drawing plenty of interest around the league. He’s already been connected to the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox at various points throughout the winter and it seems there are a few more teams involved. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the teams interested in Bryan Reynolds are keeping tabs on Profar, a group which includes the Marlins and Rangers.

Reynolds has been consistently in trade rumors for quite some time, which is fairly logical given that he’s emerged as a very good player on a rebuilding Pirates team. He won’t be a free agent until after 2025 and the team could find itself back in contention in that time, but there would also be sense in exchanging his final years of control for younger players that can continue to help the club beyond that timeframe. The Bucs could prolong their relationship with Reynolds by extending him, but recent reporting indicates the sides have been about $50MM apart in their discussions, suggesting a deal isn’t likely to get done anytime soon.

Various teams have tried to free Reynolds from Pittsburgh’s clutches over the past year or two and the player himself has even asked for a trade, but all reports have indicated that the Bucs have been sticking to a high asking price in any trade talks. Jon Heyman of The New York Post recently reported that they are looking for a return analogous to what the Nationals got in the Juan Soto deal. Given the difficulty in working something out with the Pittsburgh front office, it’s understandable that clubs would look to alternatives like Profar.

There are some similarities between the two players as both are switch-hitting outfielders. They’re actually not terribly far apart in age, despite Profar debuting all the way back in 2012. He was only 19 years old then and is now about to turn 30 next month. Reynolds is a couple of years younger, turning 28 in just over a week.

They are also both outfielders, though Reynolds has decidedly more value on defense given that he’s a passable center fielder. Teams will likely have varying views over exactly how passable he is there, since the advanced defensive metrics are split on how to grade his work up the middle. He’s accrued 4 Outs Above Average in his career at that spot but has -16 Defensive Runs Saved and a -7.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Profar, meanwhile, began his career as an infielder but has gradually spent more and more time in the outfield. Since 2019, he’s made brief appearances at second and first base but hasn’t appeared at shortstop or third base. Last year, the Padres kept him exclusively in left field. He did spend 156 2/3 innings in center field over 2020 and 2021 but wasn’t graded well there and is likely considered a corner outfielder by most clubs.

At the plate, Reynolds and Profar have admirable qualities, but in different ways. Both players are good at getting on base, with Reynolds posting a .345 OBP last year and .361 mark for his career. Profar is slightly behind in that regard, with a .331 OBP in 2022 and .322 overall. Reynolds is also ahead in the power department, hitting 27 home runs last year and 74 in his career thus far. Profar hit 15 last year and has only 78 in his career, despite more than 1,000 extra plate appearances compared to Reynolds. Profar’s work was enough for a 110 wRC+ last year, 10% better than league average, but behind the 125 that Reynolds managed.

There’s little doubting that Reynolds is a more enticing option than Profar but the latter option will cost only money, allowing the acquiring club to hang onto the pile of prospects they would theoretically send to Pittsburgh in a Reynolds deal. MLBTR predicted Profar could secure a two-year, $20MM deal at the start of the offseason. That was before the market really got going and surpassed the expectations of many observers, though Profar lingering on the market suggests no team has been eager to blow him away by surging beyond that vicinity.

The Rangers currently have a competitive balance tax calculation of $219MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. Signing someone like Profar to about $10MM per year would start pushing them close to the $233MM luxury tax threshold. It’s unclear if that’s any kind of barrier for the club, but it’s something they would have to consider if they decide to bring Profar into the fold. The Marlins, meanwhile, are nowhere near the luxury tax but are in somewhat uncharted spending territory for them. Roster Resource has their payroll currently at $103MM. That’s well beyond last year’s $79MM mark, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and the highest since the Bruce Sherman-led group bought the team from Jeffrey Loria in 2017. It’s unknown how much more they have to work with but any further spending would continue to stretch them beyond comfort zone of the past few years.

Regardless of the final cost, there are logical reasons for both teams to pursue outfield upgrades. The Rangers have Adolis García in right field and Leody Taveras as a glove-first option in center. They’ve been on the hunt for left field upgrades, given that their current choices make up a mixed bag of imperfect options. Brad Miller, Josh Smith, Ezequiel Durán and Mark Mathias are on the roster, though they’ve all spent more time on the infield than the outfield in their careers. Furthermore, all but Mathias are coming off poor seasons at the plate. Bubba Thompson is a more straightforward solution since he’s an outfielder and can at least steal some bases, but he strikes out a ton and hit .265/.302/.312 in his major league debut.

The Marlins have been seeking outfield upgrades for quite some time but added a few options into the corners last year by signing Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler. Both players had disappointing seasons in 2022 but are still under contract for 2023, with Soler seemingly ticketed for plenty of time as the designated hitter after he dealt with back spasms in the later parts of last season. That could leave one corner available for someone like Profar, though they also have Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and JJ Bleday currently lined up to battle for the two spots next to Garcia. None of those three are truly established and an external addition could bump them all down the depth charts until they take steps forward in cementing themselves. De La Cruz hits right-handed and the other two from the left side, which could allow them to form a platoon in center with one player getting nudged to the bench or the minors.

Marlins, Twins Continue To Discuss Trade Possibilities Involving Luis Arraez, Pablo Lopez

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The Marlins and Twins continue to explore trade possibilities involving Minnesota infielder Luis Arraez and Miami’s surplus of starting pitching, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first wrote last week that Arraez’s name had come up in discussions involving Marlins righty Pablo López but suggested the Twins were uninterested in parting with the infielder.

Hayes similarly hears that Minnesota isn’t willing to pull the trigger on a one-for-one swap of Arraez and López. However, Hayes characterizes Minnesota as willing to entertain larger possibilities involving Arraez and controllable starting pitching targets. While the Twins aren’t actively shopping him, they’re apparently keeping an open mind to broader trade permutations. There’s no indication anything is imminent, and Hayes notes that the sides haven’t directly spoken in several days even as a general line of communication between the clubs seemingly remains open.

The Marlins’ willingness to dealing from the rotation has dated back at least as far as the 2021-22 offseason. Miami has yet to make a major trade but is still generally expected to subtract a starter for an offensive addition between now and Opening Day.

Reports have suggested the Fish were amenable to offers on any of López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. While there’s no indication that’s officially changed, it seems talks are focusing in on the most experienced member of the group. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote this afternoon that López has moved the forefront of Miami’s trade discussions around the league. According to the Herald, discussions on Rogers and Cabrera have “cooled” of late.

That’s not an especially surprising development. López is down to two seasons of remaining club control. Rogers and Luzardo are each controllable for four years, while Cabrera can be retained for another six seasons. That has made López the most straightforward trade candidate in the Miami rotation all along, although early reports this winter suggested the Fish might instead look towards a Rogers deal while keeping López in the fold.

Even with the comparatively lesser control window, López is a highly appealing trade chip for Miami general manager Kim Ng and her staff. The Venezuelan-born righty has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.

He’ll play the 2023 campaign on a $5.45MM salary after avoiding arbitration last week. The 26-year-old will be due one more raise the following year before hitting free agency over the 2024-25 offseason.

Acquiring a starter who’s controllable beyond next season is apparently on the wishlist for a Minnesota club that could see a notable chunk of its rotation depart next winter. Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are all slated for free agency after the 2023 campaign. Of their current starting five, only Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are controllable beyond next season. Minnesota extended their window of control over righty Chris Paddack by an extra season last week, signing him through the end of 2025. He’ll likely get another rotation opportunity at some point but is currently on the mend from the second Tommy John procedure of his career. Young pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder and Louie Varland could play their way into the mix at some point but are far from established.

While it’s easy to see the appeal of adding a quality pitcher like López who’d stick around through 2024, Minnesota remains unwilling to do so in a straight swap for Arraez. The left-handed hitter is arbitration eligible for one season longer than López, controllable through 2025. His 2023 salary remains undefined — he and the club look to be headed for an arbitration hearing after not reaching an agreement last week — but will check in between $5MM and $6.1MM.

Arraez is fresh off his first All-Star campaign. He claimed the American League batting title by hitting .316 and reached base at a .375 clip overall. The 25-year-old only hit eight home runs in 603 plate appearances but is among the sport’s best pure hitters. No qualified hitter struck out less often than Arraez, who went down on strikes in only 7.1% of his trips. He was one of six qualified batters with more walks than strikeouts, drawing free passes at a decent 8.3% rate.

A second base prospect throughout his time in the minors, Arraez has assumed more of a bat-first utility role in recent years. Public defensive metrics have given him mixed reviews for his work at the keystone, and Minnesota turned to him more often at first base in deference to Jorge Polanco last season. Arraez can also play some third base and rotate through designated hitter. Miami has Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jean Segura to play second and third base, respectively. There’d be room for Arraez to join right-handed power bats Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler in the first base/DH mix, and he’s the archetype of the high-contact bat the Miami front office has reportedly sought.

If Miami and the Twins can’t bridge the gap in their trade discussions, the Marlins would find no shortage of interest in López elsewhere. The Padres and Cardinals have also been linked to the hurler this offseason while a number of others checked in at last summer’s trade deadline. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch implied this afternoon (on Twitter) there wasn’t much momentum between the Fish and Cardinals on López right now, though, suggesting that Miami’s interest in St. Louis outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been rebuffed.

Marlins Have Shown Interest In Aroldis Chapman

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The Marlins are among the teams with interest in Aroldis Chapman, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Miami becomes the first team known to have checked in on the seven-time All-Star reliever this offseason, though Heyman suggests there are multiple clubs in the mix.

While the Fish are apparently keeping an eye on Chapman, it’s not clear how strong their interest is. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported this afternoon the Marlins hadn’t put forth a formal offer. According to the Herald, Chapman is hoping to sign with a team in the relatively near future and has been working out in the Miami area, where he lives.

One of the sport’s best relievers for more than a decade, Chapman remained a valuable late-game arm as recently as 2021. He secured an All-Star nod that season and provided the Yankees with a 3.36 ERA through 56 1/3 innings. His walk and home run numbers were a bit alarming but the overall results were solid. New York trusted him enough to give him the ninth inning, where he saved 30 games in 34 attempts.

Had Chapman hit free agency coming off that season, he’d likely have been in line for a solid multi-year pact. The big southpaw had easily the worst season of his career in 2022, sending him to the open market with his value at a low ebb. Chapman posted a 4.46 ERA across 36 1/3 innings, the first year in which he’d allowed more than four earned runs per nine. He walked 17.5% of opposing hitters, the second-highest rate of his career and the loftiest clip of any reliever with 30+ innings pitched last year.

Chapman paired the abundance of free passes with the lowest strikeout percentage of his career. He fanned 26.9% of batters faced, the first time he’d punched out fewer than 30% of opponents. Even that diminished mark for Chapman was still firmly better than average, however. That’s also true of his fastball velocity. His heater sat at 97.5 MPH, a lower figure compared to his peak when he routinely averaged north of 100 MPH. Yet even that version of Chapman was among the sport’s hardest-throwing southpaws. New Philadelphia teammates Gregory Soto and José Alvarado were the game’s only lefties who topped Chapman in average fastball speed.

Given the quality of even the “lesser” stuff he’s brandishing, Chapman could certainly right the ship and reemerge as a quality high-leverage piece. His 2022 issues weren’t limited to his on-field inconsistency though. The 34-year-old (35 next month) had a pair of stints on the injured list. He missed time early in the year to Achilles tendinitis before a late-season injured list stint that arose when a tattoo got infected. That led to some frustration from Yankees brass, and New York left Chapman off their playoff rosters entirely after he didn’t report to a team workout shortly before the start of the postseason.

That certainly seemed to bring an unceremonious end to Chapman’s generally productive seven-year tenure in the Bronx. There was never much doubt he’d catch on elsewhere. Part of a left-handed relief class that has bizarrely lagged the rest of the free agent market, Chapman lingers in free agency alongside the likes of Andrew Chafin, Will Smith, Matt Moore and Brad Hand.

Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins are broadly surveying the market for potential relief help. The Herald reiterates the team’s previously-reported interest in former Cardinals closer Alex Reyes, who continues to work his way back from last May’s shoulder surgery. Jackson and Mish write that Reyes is hopeful of signing with Miami. He’d also be a high-risk upside flier considering his recent health history, though Reyes is far younger than Chapman and throws right-handed. The Fish already have a trio of southpaws — Tanner Scott, Steven Okert and Richard Bleier — locked into their bullpen, so they don’t necessarily have to narrow down targets based on handedness.

Marlins Have Been In Contact With Yuli Gurriel

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The Marlins have been in contact with free agent first baseman Yuli Gurriel, according to Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald and Alejandro Villegas of 5 Reasons Sports.

Gurriel, 39 in June, has spent his entire MLB career with the Astros thus far. He signed with them out of Cuba in 2016, a five-year deal that covered the 2016-2020 period. After a brief showing in the first year of that deal, Gurriel established himself as an above-average regular in the three subsequent seasons. From 2017 through 2019, he walked in just 4.7% of his trips to the plate but he also only struck out 10.9% of the time. He hit 62 home runs and produced an overall batting line of .296/.333/.486. His 119 wRC+ in that time indicates he was 19% better than league average.

The past three years have been far less consistent, however. Gurriel slumped badly in the shortened 2020 season, hitting just .232/.274/.384 for a wRC+ of 76. Nonetheless, the Astros had enough faith in him that they gave him a one-year extension with a club option for 2022. He bounced back in a huge way, winning the American League batting title in 2021 by hitting .319 and producing a 132 wRC+. The club triggered their club option for 2022 but saw Gurriel slump again, hitting .242/.288/.360, 86 wRC+, though he did catch fire in the postseason and hit .347/.360/.490. His market has been quiet so far this offseason, with the only reported interest coming from the Astros, though that was before they signed José Abreu.

The Fish don’t strictly need to add a first baseman since they already have Garrett Cooper lined up for that position. He’s been an above-average hitter in each of the past four seasons but is frequently injured, having yet to reach 120 games in any season of his career. Acquiring Gurriel would give them some extra cover or allow the club to monitor the workloads of the two players. Both players are right-handed but Cooper has reverse splits, meaning some platooning is possible. He has a 119 wRC+ against righties for his career but a 113 against lefties. It was even more pronounced in 2022, with a 79 against southpaws and a 125 otherwise.

There’s also the possibility of the duo taking some time at designated hitter, though that it somewhat complicated by the presence of Jorge Soler. The outfielder missed significant time in 2022 due to back spasms and reports have indicated he’ll likely get the bulk of his playing time in the DH slot next year.

All this makes Gurriel a slightly awkward fit on the roster but his inconsistent track record in recent years and advancing age probably mean he won’t cost much. That surely makes him appealing to a fairly low-spending Marlins club. The payroll is currently around $103MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. That’s fairly modest by MLB standards but the club has only once gone higher than that, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which was back in 2017 under the previous ownership group. Last year, they opened the season with just $79MM on the books.

Whatever the cost, adding Gurriel would be another attempt for the club to add some more offense to its tepid lineup, which produced a wRC+ of 88 last year, placing them 25th out of the 30 teams in the league. They’ve already signed Jean Segura as part of that effort and have also been trying to trade from their rotation surplus for quite some time, though a deal still hasn’t come together.

Cardinals Among Teams To Inquire On Marlins’ Starters

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The Cardinals and Marlins have held “at least preliminary” discussions regarding Miami’s bevy of young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Rosenthal suggests that St. Louis is a nice fit for Pablo Lopez, although on paper, it’s easy enough to make a case for just about any of the Marlins’ available starters as a fit in St. Louis. Each of Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera has seen his name surface in trade chatter recently. Miami, however, doesn’t seem to have any plans to deal ace Sandy Alcantara, whom the Cardinals actually traded to the Fish alongside Zac Gallen in the deal that sent Marcell Ozuna from Miami to St. Louis.

The Cardinals have a solid-looking rotation on the surface, with each of Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty likely to slot into the starting five. Depth options behind the group include Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Andre Pallante, although the latter two did well in a bullpen setting in 2022. Further down the line are prospects Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy and Tink Hence, although none of that group is on the 40-man roster just yet.

All that said, however, the Cards could lose nearly their entire rotation after the season. Wainwright is set to retire, while each of Mikolas, Montgomery and Flaherty are free agents next winter. Only Matz, whose four-year contract covers the 2022-25 seasons, is signed or controlled beyond the current season.

In that sense, there’s good reason for the Cards to pursue a starter who can be controlled through at least the 2024 season. There’s surely some internal hope that someone like Liberatore, Graceffo or McGreevy can step up and seize a rotation spot when an opportunity inevitably presents itself this season, but that’s a lot to bank on. And, even if that happens, the Cards would still be looking at multiple rotation spots they need to fill next offseason — perhaps as many as three.

Lopez, 27 in March, has a 3.52 ERA over his past 340 big league innings and is arbitration-eligible through the 2024 campaign. Luzardo, even younger at 25, enjoyed a nice bounceback year in 2022 when he notched a 3.32 ERA and 30% strikeout rate, but a forearm injury limited him to just 100 1/3 innings. He’s under team control through 2026. That’s the same amount of club control as the 25-year-old Rogers, a 2021 Rookie of the Year finalist who stumbled to a 5.47 ERA in 107 frames in 2022, his second full MLB campaign. The 24-year-old Cabrera, meanwhile, has six full years of club control remaining and notched a 3.01 ERA in 71 2/3 innings in 2022.

None of that bunch is expensive, with Lopez’s $5.45MM salary leading the way. Finances shouldn’t play a major consideration for the Cardinals anyhow; they’re on pace to roughly match last year’s $163MM payroll, and president of baseball ops John Mozeliak had previously indicated the ability to increase payroll. From Miami’s vantage point, their projected $103MM payroll would be the second-highest mark in club history.

The Marlins are known to be seeking improvements to their lineup and have been prioritizing center field and catcher dating back to last offseason. Miami swung a trade for Pittsburgh catcher Jacob Stallings prior to the 2022 season but saw the former Gold Glove winner turn in a disappointing .233/.292/.292 batting line while his typically high-end defensive grades also cratered. Center field remains an unaddressed need, and Miami again appears likely to take someone better suited for a corner (Bryan De La Cruz) and hope for the best this season.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are deep in outfielders with Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar likely lined up left-to-right at the MLB level. (Rosenthal suggests that of the bunch, Nootbaar is the least likely to change hands.) Top prospect Jordan Walker, who’s likely all but off limits in trade talks, looms behind that group. Alec Burleson, meanwhile, has already gotten some MLB experience, and fellow outfielder Moises Gomez posted big numbers in the upper minors. Behind the plate, the Cards have well-regarded catching prospect Ivan Herrera, who doesn’t exactly have a clear path to a regular role now that Willson Contreras has been signed to a five-year deal.

Certainly, the Cards and Marlins seem to have aligning needs that could lead to a trade, but there’s also no indication that talks are particularly heated. Miami has likely discussed its available starters with more than half the league, given the dearth of viable big league options elsewhere on the trade market. Even the Cards and Marlins themselves don’t know whether a deal will ultimately come together at this juncture, but it’s nevertheless of some note that the two parties have at least held some surface-level talks.

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