January 13 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange salary figures in advance of possible hearings, and as usual, the large majority of players worked out one-year agreements (or extensions) for their 2023 salaries. MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker detailed these agreements, though there is still quite a bit of unfinished business, as 33 players still don’t have their deals settled, and thus their 2023 salaries could be determined by an arbiter.
Typically, arb hearings take place in February or March, yet there isn’t anything officially preventing a team from still reaching an agreement with a player up until the moment an arbiter makes their ruling. However, most clubs employ the “file and trial” strategy as a way of putting more pressure on players to accept agreements prior to the figure-exchange deadline. In short, once the deadline passes, teams head to hearings with no more negotiation about a one-year salary, though clubs are typically still willing to discuss multi-year extensions.
Here are the 33 players who have yet to reach an agreement on their 2023 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salary and the team’s counter-offer. As always, clubs (and the league as a whole) pay very close attention to arbitration salaries, since any outlier of a number can serve as a precedent in the future, thus raising the bar for both one particular players and perhaps players as a whole. This is why teams are generally adamant about the “file and trial” tactic and taking the risk of a sometimes-awkward arb hearing, even in cases where there is a relatively small gap between the club’s figure and the player’s figure.
[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]
Nineteen of the 30 teams have at least one unsettled case remaining, with the Rays (by far) leading the way with seven players on pace to reach hearings. Given that Tampa Bay entered the offseason with an enormous 19-player arbitration class, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the Rays still have a lot of work to do, even after trimming that initial class size with non-tenders and trades. Teoscar Hernandez’s $16MM is the largest figure submitted by any of the 33 players, while Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette have the largest gap between submitted figures, each with a $2.5MM difference between their hoped-for salaries and the numbers respectively submitted by the Astros and Blue Jays.
The total list….
- Hunter Renfroe: $11.9MM in desired salary….Angels offered $11.25MM
- Gio Urshela: $10MM….Angels $8.4MM
- Luis Rengifo: $2.3MM….Angels $2MM
- Kyle Tucker: $7.5MM….Astros $5MM
- Cristian Javier: $3.5MM….Astros $3MM
- Bo Bichette: $7.5MM….Blue Jays $5MM
- Max Fried: $15MM….Braves $13.5MM
- Corbin Burnes: $10.75MM….Brewers $10.01MM
- Ryan Helsley: $3MM….Cardinals $2.15MM
- Genesis Cabrera: $1.15MM….Cardinals $950K
- Josh Rojas: $2.9MM….Diamondbacks $2.575MM
- Tony Gonsolin: $3.4MM….Dodgers $3MM
- Jon Berti: $2.3MM….Marlins $1.9MM
- Jesus Luzardo: $2.45MM….Marlins $2.1MM
- Teoscar Hernandez: $16MM….Mariners $14MM
- Diego Castillo: $3.225MM….Mariners $2.95MM
- Dylan Moore: $2.25MM….Mariners $1.9MM
- Jeff McNeil: $7.75MM….Mets $6.25MM
- Victor Robles: $2.6MM….Nationals $2.3MM
- Austin Voth: $2MM….Orioles $1.7MM
- Jose Alvarado: $3.7MM….Phillies $3.2MM
- Seranthony Dominguez: $2.9MM….Phillies $2.1MM
- Ji-Man Choi: $5.4MM….Pirates $4.65MM
- Yandy Diaz: $6.3MM….Rays $5.5MM
- Jeffrey Springs: $3.55MM….Rays $2.7MM
- Harold Ramirez: $2.2MM….Rays $1.9MM
- Colin Poche: $1.3MM….Rays $1.175MM
- Pete Fairbanks: $1.9MM….Rays $1.5MM
- Ryan Thompson: $1.2MM….Rays $1MM
- Jason Adam: $1.775MM….Rays $1.55MM
- Brady Singer: $3.325MM….Royals $2.95MM
- Luis Arraez: $6.1MM….Twins $5MM
- Gleyber Torres: $10.2MM….Yankees $9.7MM
I’m starting to see why the team generally wins (if I remember correctly). Players have fewer resources and are usually demanding ridiculous raises (Fried in particular).
How exactly is Fried in particular, the guy who finished 2nd in Cy Young last season and has arguably been a Cy Young caliber pitcher for at least 3 seasons, demanding a ridiculous raise? I guarantee lots of teams in the league would take Fried at $15 mil a year without even blinking.
That’s irrelevant. This site regularly overproducts pay, and he is demanding significantly more than he was projected for.
I think it’s crazy the difference between him and Corbin Burnes. 5 mil.
Exactly! Sure, 30 teams would sign those guys for 1 year at thst salary, but this is arbitration. I am not at all commenting on free agent value. Fried probably has a 95% chance of losing here in arb. Follow his case if you doubt that.
I agree with you, DGTR. Max is asking for 2.25M more than what Cot’s projected. The Braves are asking for 750k more than the projection. I love Max, but he’s swinging for the fences with this Arb ask. Remember he’s got another year of Arb after this one.
It doesn’t matter how much this site predicts a player receives. That’s what’s truly irrelevant. Arbitrators take things like finishing second in the Cy Young voting into account.
“Arbitrators take things like finishing second in the Cy Young voting into account.”
So do teams and players.
i am looking at the remainders and they are within couple 100k for majority of players and most are the team is offering more than the predicted amount.
The ones they seem to not to project well are the ones that have awards or top 5 in major awards such as burnes. The rest seem about in line if you go through the remainders.
Players always aim higher beforehand hoping for an inbetween settlement before meeting but damn really rays you cant get those few done. It really is a pittance and probably costs more to research and basically belittle the player before the arbitration so make your case.
@bhambrave- What’s your point exactly? All I’m doing is responding to DeGrom’s argument that this site’s prediction has any bearing on the outcome.
Yes, that matters. However, this last season wasn’t as many innings and arb raises are not that high. deGrom has the highest raise in arb history, and it’s less than 10 million (according to ESPN). He must have extended and overriden that contract.
Projections don’t have bearings on outcomes, projections are based on previous outcomes. Over time, those projections tend to be reasonably accurate, with occasional outliers. Outliers are more likely to be losing submissions than ones closer to the projections.
He’ll remember
No team friendly discount when it matters to ATL front office most
Except, as deGrom pointed out, the site is usually incorrect so whatever formula they’re using would not represent what you just stated.
Arbitrators also heavily rely on precedent. Obviously, this site isn’t any official determiner, but does look at previous arb cases and situations to make informed projections. It’s not like they’re just throwing a number against the wall.
Yep. Too many people seem to confuse free agency with arbitration.
Except they haven’t adjusted, which is fine.
Ok Yoda…
@slidepeace
If he was going to take a team friendly discount the braves would have already signed him. As a braves fan, he will be gone in 2 years unfortunately.
MLB arbitrators do not create a number. They either pick the player’s number or the team’s number.
Cohen trying to give chicken feed to Squirrel.
@manny
I agree, for what he brings to the team he definitely deserves more than cohen offering.
It’s more about following the pattern of salaries allowed in the first six years than any individual owner being cheap. That said I think McNeil will win the arb battle on the back of his NL batting title. I think the Mets should prioritize extending him over arguing in front of the arbitrator.
Arrauz will win his case for the same reason. His batting average is so much higher than the keague average. He has natural swing power numbers to go along with his average, including above average RBI.
Wow! Teoscar wants 16 million no wonder why the Blue Jays traded him. Shouldn’t he be more in the 10 – 12 mill range?
Great response! I think all every MLB Team would sign him for $16-17 million.
Before anyone complains that a team is nickel and diming someone, keep in mind Arb salaries grow based off of previous years and precedent. So that 1MM difference this year could be 4 or 5 in savings in a couple of years.
Definitely an average comment
I don’t know. I feel like that’s more of an assumption based on all available evidence.
The Dude Abides.
And there’s like a handful of these that are 200k difference? If I was an arbitor these wouldn’t even get looked at for on field stats 100k to the player 100k to the team, done give me the real stuff like 1-2 million off
MLB arbitration is win/lose. They are not mediators that create a new number based off of concessions. The arbitrator either picks the player’s number or the team’s number. That’s it.
I can understand going to Arb over a million or more difference, but there are several that are just 200k-300k apart, like most of the Rays players. They have one player asking just 125k more.
In those instances, why not just split the difference?
Teams don’t know what number the player will file at. Team’s also will not necessarily file at the number they are offering. The Angels might have offered Hunter Renfroe 11.5 million to try and settle, and when he didn’t accept it, they filed at the lowest number they thought they could win at. At least that is my understanding of the strategy.
I find it really hard to believe that teams and players don’t tell each other what they want and are asking for.
Agreed. If they were negotiating before exchanging arb numbers then both sides are acutely aware of what the other side wants.
Yeah, I’m just saying the demands for the hearing are different than the demands to settle. In the hearing, the arbitrator has to chose one of the numbers, they can’t go in between. So both sides need to be careful to not be too extreme or they will increase their chances of losing. That is why sometimes you see such small differences. The gaps in the settlement negotiations are likely larger.
Renfroe and Rengifo should be easy to meet in the middle.
Urshela is asking a lot. Perhaps it is strategy. If not, that could end in a hearing.
Surprised Gleyber Torres made the list for a $500k difference. Guess he really wanted to crack eight figures.
Oh boy… so you think the list is based upon the difference in ask and offered?
Does this article suggest otherwise? There is, of course, still time to reach a settlement prior to a scheduled meeting.
Well, it’s the total list of players who are going to a hearing so leaving him out would be a little mean lol
Rays… cheap much?
Rays – [X] No to all
The Rays are the Rays.
No way the Yankees and Gleyber go to an arbitration hearing over a $500K difference.
The fact that he made the list is interesting. Whether one agrees or disagrees, I recall Randy Levine having a few choice words for Dellin Betances following their arb win. Talk about rubbing salt in the wound. I loosely speculate that this may be more about principles than money for the Yankees if they wind up in an arb room. Let’s hope not.
The Betances hearing was interesting. Levine’s mean-spirited reaction was telling. It wasn’t just that they won their hearing, Levine then went out of his way to call a quick press conference and tap dance all over Betances, including calling him by the wrong first name and then adding “I’m not an astronaut and Dellin Betances is not a closer.”
It was all weird, but there is a unique backstory on what caused this. Every MLB team was supporting Levine and the Yankees, wanting Betances to lose. The arbitration process rewards closers and saves, while Betances was a dominant setup man. The arbitration process unfairly doesn’t reward those guys, so Betances’ agent was trying to introduce additional metrics and analytics into the arbitration hearing for his case. MLB and the MLBPA have sort of an understanding on what type of data is acceptable, although I don’t know if they’re hard rules, but the Yankees belief was Betances’ agent was trying to change accepted guidelines in mid flight. They even said that Betances was being improperly mislead by his agent, saying the metrics they planned to use wouldn’t be heavily considered by the arbitrator. Regardless, if he won, all teams could end up paying more for their middle relievers and setup men, and as teams shift more innings from starters to relievers, while also minimizing closers, it’s a way for them to reduce costs. It’s all about the money. I don’t know if the guidelines on the type of data allowed has been changed since Betances’ case, but it was an issue then. Levine, a NYC political lawyer by trade, meaning he’s mean by nature, took it upon himself to make sure the Yankees did not lose this hearing, and his press conference after the win was less a message to Betances then it was to every other agent and reliever who might consider following Betances’ path. I’m not agreeing with Levine’s style at all, viewing it as unnecessarily over the top, but simply giving the backstory.
I don’t see a similar issue with Gleyber. It seems more straightforward. 500K is not a lot when looking at an approximate $10MM deal, but there’s a multiplier effect in arbitration. An additional 500K this year could mean an additional few million more next year when Gleyber had his final arbitration year. I suspect they’ll find common ground.
Well put, Lord99. I wasn’t fully aware of that Levine-Betances backstory.
I wonder if Twins aren’t trying to work out a longer deal with Arraez.
I’m sure they’d be interested at the right price. Hard to find a good comp given his profile as a strong hitter with great contact skills but no real defensive position.
26578-11 thanks for wondering!
Hey Man, you’re welcome. Even if you got my auto-generated named wrong.
Sid Hartman genius fans on this site say that Arraez is damaged.
So is Correa, Buxton, Paddack…I guess the Twins like collecting broken toys.
These differences may seem small in context, but, for some teams, the money is meaningful–either they are so “broke” they can’t afford it, or, for teams approaching CBT levels, an extra 500K/1M room may have really significant implications. And since each arb award effectively creates a floor (since you can’t offer and cut) the ultimate number echos into the next year.
Historically, the family that now owns the Twins was responsible for the end of street cars/city commuter trains in the TC area that is now costing $10 billion to replace for a chance to move people to areas that they don’t want to go.
TV pays the ride for all baseball owners. Small market is a meaningless label. The majority of organizations obviously don’t care to pay to be competitive.
@SK – “Small market is a meaningless label”
There is much truth in what you are trying to say here. Yes, small markets can almost all do more and afford more than they say that they can. But the above quote is junk, as market size IS meaningful…quite meaningful. The media markets make a huge difference, despite attempts to even it out to an extent. Attendance is a big deal as well, as well as the rest of the related ways to create income. The gross income of a Yankees or Dodgers et al is vastly larger than the gross income of a Tampa Bay / Oakland etc.
Yeah you guys.
Think of the poor billionaires for once.
These team owners can’t pay market value for players with less than 6 years of experience. That would set a precedent of people expecting to get paid how much they’re actually worth.
Yeah you guys. Think of the non future mvp who doesn’t understand how to run a business or specifically a business plan.
AL West and Rays must have a good arbitrator or something to have this type of confidence.
I’m curious to see if the free agent market inflation influences the arbitration panels.
This has caused quite a stir in Toronto, Bo is basically saying he wants 95% of whatever Vlad is going to get or else.
Trade Bo now, sorry Bud. I get the impression he’s just a spoiled rich kid who has a rare talent. Everything screams he won’t sign an extension without it being above market and likely gets Traded, so might as well explore it now while at least passable in house options exist and you’re not getting someone else’s scrap SS in return
Socialism for rich people? Millionaires complain about billionaires not wanting to make all their players billionaires. People complain that executives get compensated, even when their company fails. However, they say players are so poor because those greedy owners are tying to make a profit. I wonder why this is.
It’s interesting that Bichette turned down a (nominal) raise last year at his request when the Jays were under no obligation to do so. And then received the minimum salary losing about $25K. The Giants could be a trade match.
Again, another statement by Bichette saying “FU Atkins, Shapiro, Rogers.”
If he’s not getting 350 million over 11 years he’s not signing is my interpretation
Pretty sad how the Rays and Marlins alone have over a third of the cases, and they are pretty much all low dollar differences on fairly piddling figures.
MLB needs to just move on from Florida.
If woodruff is worth $10.8M then so is Burnes.
Why are the Marlins always listed ahead of the Mariners
Last time I checked I came before L in the alphabet…
This is how the Mariners should do their 3 guys.
Teaoscar is $2 mill apart split the mill and sign some incentives that could take him to $20 mill
The other 2 guys Castillo and Moore take our offer and the $300 K we are apart will be made into incentives that you can attain.$100K for a playoff g
7 players from the Rays. Jesus
Geez, give Gonsolin the 400 grand.
The Rays Calling Card is the pen–there’s no shortage of arms they can throw out there. They all produce and most of them go to arb. They are used up and ready for Monday trash pick-up. Seldom do you see one sign more than a 2 year deal and it’s generally not with the Rays. 3 position players are looking to get paid and deserve to. Not much of a difference and management holds firm. Nickel and diming with quality will eventually come back to bite them.
It will be interesting to see how arbitration plays out under the new CBA and if we see major changes. Gio Urshela asking for $10MM? I don’t think the Angels would have even been too interested in signing him at that rate. I expected Urshela to be right at that $8MM mark.
Why are the Brewers risking pissing off burnes in arbitration over like 700k. I’m sure that they could just meet him in the middle and avoid this nonsense.
Same with the dodgers and gonsolin. This is crazy to me.
Bo bitchette saying he’s an outlier lol
*Bichette