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Marlins Notes: Cabrera, Alcantara, King

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The Marlins are gearing up for what could be their busiest offseason in years, as all indication point to at least some willingness to spend in free agency this winter coming off a 79-win campaign in 2025 where the team enjoyed the emergence of players like Kyle Stowers and Jakob Marsee as valuable pieces. At the same time, they’ve got plenty of holes that could make it difficult to compete in what figures to be a stacked NL East next year with the Mets, Phillies, and Braves all expected to try and improve this winter.

That leaves Miami in a difficult spot where they figure to simultaneously try and improve while also building for the future. That could leave the team hesitant to deal away some players that were looked at as likely trade assets even a few months ago. According to Kevin Barral and Isaac Azout of Fish on First, right-handers Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara are hardly locks to be traded this winter. Alcantara, in particular, is someone that the organization “expects” to still be in Miami on Opening Day.

There’s certainly some logic in that, as the 2022 NL Cy Young award winner was one of the league’s best pitchers in the not-too-distant past. A season where Alcantara pitched to a 5.36 ERA across 31 starts surely lowered his value, but if the Marlins still believe in the 30-year-old there’s no reason to sell low. That’s especially true because he’s one of the few players on the Marlins’ roster making significant money. There have been some indications recently that the Marlins could be worried about a potential grievance from the MLBPA due to their lack of spending, and trading Alcantara away would be counterproductive to any efforts to prove that the club is using revenue sharing dollars on the on-field product.

That leaves 27-year-old Cabrera as the more likely piece to move of the pair, though Barral and Azout both note that the Marlins would need to receive an “overwhelming return” to pull the trigger on a trade. That’s a sensible stance to take. Cabrera enjoyed a breakout season in 2025, with a 3.53 ERA and 3.83 FIP across 26 starts. He struck out 25.8% of his opponents against a walk rate of just 8.3% this year, and his fastball average 97.0 mph on the radar gun, the fastest velocity of his career so far. A young starter on the upswing with three years of team control would surely be one of the hottest commodities on the trade market, and the Marlins have no reason to rush a trade for that reason. The Mets and Cubs were among the teams connected to Cabrera when he was on the market over the summer, and both appear to be in the market for rotation help again this winter.

Trading an impact starter may not necessarily be in the cards for Miami this winter, and if they don’t they’ll retain a frightening on-paper rotation of Alcantara, Cabrera, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, and Ryan Weathers with players like Max Meyer, Robby Snelling, Janson Junk, and Ryan Gusto providing depth behind that group. There’s enough health questions within that group of arms that it’s not impossible to fit another starter into the mix, and there’s been previous connections drawn between the Marlins and right-hander Michael King. Barral and Azout suggest that a reunion with the club’s 12th-round pick from the 2016 draft is “highly unlikely,” however.

That’s perhaps not too much of a surprise. While King is coming off a down season where he made just 15 starts due to shoulder issues, MLBTR predicted that he’d land a four-year, $80MM contract in free agency this offseason. That would be quite a step up for a Marlins team that hasn’t spent much beyond the $53MM contract they gave to Avisail Garcia back in 2021 in recent years, at least via free agency. Adding a player like King at that sort of price tag would be a bold move, especially given the fact that the starting rotation is already a strength for the club. The Cubs and Orioles have both been tied to King in free agency this offseason already, and more teams are surely interested in the right-hander after he flashed ace-level potential with the Padres in 2024.

Marlins Interested In Michael King

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The Marlins are among the teams that have shown interest in free-agent righty Michael King, per Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic. Miami has frequently been linked to prominent bullpen arms in the offseason’s early stages as well, and the Fish are apparently planning to spend more heavily in free agency than in recent years (although that’s a pretty low bar to clear).

Skeptics will presume that the Marlins, like the A’s last offseason, are wary of running into a grievance pertaining to their allocation of revenue-sharing funds. Optimists will look at Miami’s hot finish to the 2025 season and the steps forward from young core pieces like Kyle Stowers, Jakob Marsee and Edward Cabrera as the driving factor behind the ostensible spending push. In reality, some of both are likely to be true.

Rosenthal and Drellich write that the Marlins are believed to be pulling in around $70MM annually in revenue-sharing. Teams that allocate under 150% of the revenue-sharing funds they receive to the roster (in terms of CBT obligations) can draw the union’s ire and fall subject to a grievance. That’s not true in every instance. Miami’s CBT ledger in 2025 came in around $85MM, per RosterResource. The Fish are projected for about $70MM of CBT considerations right now, however.

It seems that falling shy of that 150% threshold in consecutive seasons is what truly triggers the risk of a grievance. The A’s were the only perennial payroll cellar-dweller who seemed to be subject to a potential grievance last offseason. (They responded by signing Luis Severino and Jose Leclerc and extending Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler.) None of the Pirates, Marlins or Rays seemed to face the same pressure.

However, each of Pittsburgh, Miami and Tampa Bay had been well over $100MM in CBT considerations in each of the preceding seasons. The A’s trotted out CBT numbers between $68MM and $84MM from 2022-24 before finally opening the wallet a bit to avoid that potential grievance. Rosenthal and Drellich also suggest that the Marlins may want to avoid any in-fighting with other clubs during the upcoming CBA talks, where luxury tax payors could argue that the Marlins aren’t using their funds properly. Readers are encouraged to check out the piece for full, more granular details on the matter and thoughts from other club officials and agents who weight in when chatting with The Athletic duo.

Regardless of the motivation, the fact that King is on Miami’s radar is notable. He’s a former Marlins draft pick, though that came under prior ownership and a different front office regime, so those ties are minimal at this point. King would step into a rotation that also includes the previously mentioned Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett and Ryan Weathers — with prospects Thomas White, Robby Snelling, Dax Fulton and Max Meyer (on the mend from surgery) all factoring in as possible options as well.

King, 30, has been excellent since moving from a swingman role with the Yankees — who acquired him in 2017’s Garrett Cooper swap — into the rotation late in the 2023 season. His 2025 campaign was shortened by a nerve injury in his shoulder and a knee injury late in the season, but King boasts a terrific 2.93 ERA (3.50 FIP, 3.66 SIERA) with a 27.4% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate in 53 starts since moving to a rotation role full-time.

Adding King would give Miami a playoff-caliber starter to pair with arms like Alcantara, Cabrera and Perez. He’d also make it easier for the Fish to entertain offers on young pitching, whether that be Cabrera, Weathers or some of those vaunted prospects (headlined by White). The Marlins could also give stronger consideration to dealing Alcantara if they add a veteran starter, but they’d still be selling somewhat low on him (and trading Alcantara would offset much of the payroll gains they’d obtain by signing King).

The Marlins are on the lookout for meaningful offensive upgrades, but the free agent market is generally thin on impact hitters this offseason. If the Fish instead choose to further deepen an organizational strength, they could use their stock of quality young arms to explore the trade market in search of more meaningful upgrades at the infield corners, designated hitter and/or in right field.

King rejected a $22.025MM qualifying offer from the Padres. The Marlins would pay the lightest of three penalty tiers for signing him, due to their status as a revenue-sharing recipient. Signing King would require Miami to its third-highest pick in the 2026 draft.

Nine Players Reject Qualifying Offer

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The deadline to accept the qualifying offer has passed. Four players — Trent Grisham, Gleyber Torres, Brandon Woodruff, and Shota Imanaga — chose to accept the one-year, $22.025MM deal and remain with their current clubs. The remaining nine players rejected the deal. They are: Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber, Blue Jays infielder Bo Bichette, Astros lefty Framber Valdez, Padres righty Dylan Cease, Phillies lefty Ranger Suarez, Mets closer Edwin Diaz, Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen, and Padres righty Michael King. All nine are now free agents.

There’s not much surprise in any of the nine players who rejected. Tucker, Schwarber, Bichette, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz were all locks. Gallen may have given some brief thought to accepting after a rough showing in 2025, but he finished strong and has a track record as a high-end starter who’s garnered multiple top-five finishes in NL Cy Young balloting. King was hobbled by nerve and knee injuries in an odd season but was dominant in 2023-24 and through the first two months of the current season. He was healthy late in the year and fanned three in his lone inning of postseason work. He’ll test the waters in search of a multi-year deal as well.

Now that this nonet has rejected qualifying offers, they’ll all be subject to draft compensation. Interested teams will need to surrender a draft pick (or multiple picks) and, in some cases, space from their bonus pool for international amateurs in order to sign any of this group. The extent of that draft compensation depends on the revenue-sharing and luxury tax status of the new team. MLBTR broke down which pick(s) each club would forfeit by signing a “qualified” free agent last month.

Similarly, the compensation for each player’s former club is dependent on revenue-sharing and luxury tax status — as well as the size of the contract signed by the player in question. MLBTR also ran through the compensation each team would receive if their qualified free agents turned down the offer and signed elsewhere.

Cubs Among Teams Interested In Michael King

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The Cubs are in the market for notable rotation upgrades this offseason, and right-hander Michael King is among the names on their radar, per Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. Mooney and Sharma also double down on the Cubs’ previously reported interest in Dylan Cease, noting that the Cubs are willing to forfeit the requisite draft pick and international funds to sign a player who has rejected a qualifying offer (which both Cease and King received from the Padres).

King, 31 next May, has had an atypical arc over the past few seasons. A swingman and multi-inning reliever for several years in the Bronx, he moved into the Yankees’ rotation late in the 2023 season and posted brilliant results in nine starts down the stretch. New York shipped him to San Diego as part of the Juan Soto blockbuster of the 2023-24 offseason, and King subsequently broke out as one of the top starters in MLB, starting 30 games for the Friars and turning in a 2.95 ERA with a hearty 27.7% strikeout rate against a solid 8.7% walk rate.

It was more of the same early in 2025. King sprinted out of the gates with a 2.59 ERA and even better rate stats (28.4 K%, 7.6 BB%) in his first 10 starts. By late May, he’d claimed the No. 6 spot on our Free Agent Power Rankings here at MLBTR. A nine-figure free agent deal seemed all but certain — provided King stayed healthy.

That proved to be a major caveat. The Padres placed King on the 15-day IL in late May with what was originally termed inflammation in his right shoulder. San Diego later called it a pinched nerve in his shoulder, but it wasn’t expected to be a prominent injury … at least not at first. King, however, wound up spending nearly three months on the shelf. In late June, King publicly voiced frustration with the injury, noting that there were days where he was in significant discomfort and could barely muster any baseball activity — and that he’d wake up a day later feeling close to 100% and ready to go.

King finally returned the mound in early August, giving the Padres hope that he’d be back atop their rotation down the stretch. His return lasted all of two innings, however — but not due to his previously problematic shoulder. Rather, King landed back on the 15-day IL due to a left knee issue that popped up in his return effort. An MRI revealed no structural damage, and King hoped to be back after a minimal stint but still wound up sidelined for another month.

King returned for good in early September, but his results in four starts were rocky. He pitched just 15 2/3 innings and yielded 10 runs on 18 hits (including six homers) with an 11-to-7 K/BB ratio. Brilliant as his start to the season was, King pitched a total of 17 2/3 innings with a 6.11 ERA following May 18. He made one appearance with San Diego in the postseason, pitching one inning of relief — and striking out the side in a perfect frame.

There’s little doubting that King is among the most talented arms in the sport, but his platform year before free agency finished with more of a whimper than a roar. The Padres seemingly don’t have any qualms about his health. They issued him a $22.025MM qualifying offer despite having minimal payroll flexibility this winter. San Diego would presumably be thrilled to have King back, given the need in their rotation, but they’re reportedly aiming for a similar payroll to 2025 and King accepting the QO would put them about $10MM over where they sat in ’25. If the Padres had major concerns about his shoulder and/or knee, they likely wouldn’t have risked the QO — particularly since their compensation for him signing elsewhere will only be a pick after the fourth round (rather than after the first) due to their status as a luxury tax payor.

King isn’t necessarily the sole focus of the Cubs’ hunt for rotation upgrades (nor is Cease). The Athletic duo note that Chicago has some interest in star NPB righty Tatsuya Imai and they could rekindle last offseason’s trade talks with the Marlins about their starting pitchers. Imai will be posted for major league teams next week. Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara is signed through 2026 with a club option for 2027, while 27-year-old righty Edward Cabrera is controlled via arbitration through 2028. It’s still possible that lefty Shota Imanaga returns, whether via accepting his own QO or perhaps working out a new two-year deal.

The Cubs currently project for a payroll of about $158MM, per RosterResource, which sits around $50MM shy of their end-of-season levels in 2025. They’re nowhere close to the luxury tax, currently sitting close to $75MM shy of next year’s $244MM first-tier threshold. Shortstop Dansby Swanson is currently the only Cubs player who’s guaranteed anything beyond the 2026 season. His seven-year, $177MM contract runs through 2029. There’s quite literally no free agent the deep-pocketed Cubs can’t afford to pursue, so the only limitations on their winter additions will be self-imposed if the bidding reaches a point that’s too far beyond the comfort zone of either the front office or owner Tom Ricketts.

Orioles Pursuing Prominent Pitching Upgrades, Open To Signing Qualifying Offer Recipients

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On the heels of a disappointing 2025 season, Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias is striking a much more aggressive tenor in his early media appearances this offseason than last. Baltimore’s baseball ops leader candidly acknowledged this week that he’s hopeful of adding a starter who can give his team “innings and front-half-of-the-rotation stuff” as well as a reliever “who has closer experience” (links via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner and Jake Rill of MLB.com. Just as notably, Elias voiced that he is “fully prepared” to forfeit draft pick(s) to sign free agents who have rejected a qualifying offer.

It’s a notable departure from Baltimore’s 2024-25 offseason. The O’s made a multi-year offer to Corbin Burnes that wasn’t accepted. It’s not clear how many — if any — other free agents received multi-year offers from the Orioles.

Ultimately, Elias & Co. handed out almost exclusively one-year deals, signing Charlie Morton ($15MM), Tomoyuki Sugano ($13MM), Andrew Kittredge ($10MM), Gary Sanchez ($8.5MM), Ramon Laureano ($4MM) and Dylan Carlson ($975K) for the 2025 season. Outfielder Tyler O’Neill was the lone recipient of a multi-year guarantee, landing three years and $49.5MM. Even that deal came with an opt-out opportunity following the 2025 season.

O’Neill was not only the lone multi-year free agent signing for the Orioles last winter — he’s the only free agent Elias has signed to a multi-year deal in seven offseasons leading Baltimore’s baseball operations. For much of that time, the team has been rebuilding, which helps to explain the lack of a multi-year investment. Elias told Darragh McDonald in a recent guest appearance on the MLBTR Podcast that there’s no organizational aversion to multi-year free agent deals, they simply haven’t lined up on one during his tenure.

At least based on his early comments, Elias seems more resolute in his efforts to pursue higher-end talent. The O’s have a pair of notable arms in Kyle Bradish and the resurgent Trevor Rogers atop their rotation, but Rogers is a free agent next winter and Bradish only returned from Tommy John surgery this past summer. Voicing a preference to sign someone who can pitch in the “front half” of the rotation and expressing a willingness to punt draft picks both signal a more aggressive playbook this winter.

On the free agent side of things, the market has several interesting names. Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Michael King, Brandon Woodruff and Zac Gallen all received qualifying offers. None are expected to accept. NPB star Tatsuya Imai will also be posted for MLB clubs, adding a 28-year-old wild card to the mix. Notably, Elias was the Astros’ scouting director when the team signed Valdez as an amateur in 2016. The two overlapped in Houston’s organization for a couple years.

On the trade side of the coin, there are a number of high-profile arms likely to be available. Much as it pains fans of pitching-hungry clubs, there’s minimal chance the Tigers will trade Tarik Skubal. The Brewers seem inclined to hang onto Freddy Peralta. Twins president Derek Falvey has said he plans to add to the roster until he’s told otherwise, which casts some doubt on the immediate availability of Joe Ryan and/or Pablo Lopez. But the market still includes names like MacKenzie Gore, Sonny Gray, Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera and Mitch Keller, among others.

Broadly speaking, whether it’s via free agency or trade, there’s benefit in the Orioles adding a starter who’s controlled/signed beyond 2026. Rogers, as mentioned, is a free agent next winter. Righties Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells will be free agents after the 2027 season. There’s little doubting the pure talent of righty Grayson Rodriguez, but by the time Opening Day 2026 rolls around, he’ll be 20 months removed from pitching in a big league game. There’s very little long-term stability in the group.

As for the relief market, the number of qualified free agents is far lower. Devin Williams didn’t receive a QO from the Yankees. Robert Suarez didn’t get one from the Padres. Edwin Diaz was the only reliever tagged with a QO. That said, there are a number of a high-profile names from which to choose. Diaz, Suarez, Williams, Ryan Helsley, Raisel Iglesias, Kyle Finnegan and Pete Fairbanks all have extensive closing experience in the majors. If the preference is a one-year deal, 38-year-old Kenley Jansen keeps getting the job done even as he inches closer to his 40th birthday.

Whoever ends up emerging as the priority, payroll shouldn’t be an issue. The only players guaranteed anything beyond the 2026 season are O’Neill and catcher Samuel Basallo, who inked a long-term extension just days after making his MLB debut. They’re owed a combined $17.5MM in 2027. After ’27, Basallo’s eight-year, $67MM deal is the only contract on the books. It’d be a surprise to see the Orioles sign a high-end starter and a prominent reliever to multi-year deals, but only because they haven’t operated that way in quite some time. Payroll-wise, there’s no reason they couldn’t bring in a pair of prominent free agents.

Elias also suggested that the O’s will be on the lookout for an additional option in center field. While he praised Colton Cowser’s long-term outlook and expressed confidence that the 25-year-old (26 next March) can handle the position defensively, Baltimore’s president also noted that “you can’t get through the year with one center fielder.”

A reunion with Cedric Mullins seems unlikely, as he’ll presumably want everyday at-bats (or close to it) wherever he goes, while the O’s have O’Neill, Cowser and Dylan Beavers already in the mix for playing time, to say nothing of recently signed Leody Taveras and former top prospect Heston Kjerstad. Enrique Bradfield Jr., the No. 17 overall pick in 2023 and one of the system’s top prospects, reached Triple-A last year and could debut in 2026.

Part-time center field options on the market could include Lane Thomas, Harrison Bader or Chas McCormick, whom Elias drafted with the Astros back in 2017. Trade possibilities could include Arizona’s Alek Thomas or Colorado’s Brenton Doyle. If Twins ownership winds up pushing the front office to further scale back payroll, then not only would Lopez and Ryan be available — Byron Buxton may even be amenable to waiving his no-trade clause.

As always, this is far from an exhaustive list of targets for the Orioles or possibilities to fill those needs. In all likelihood, the O’s will be looking for multiple relievers, additional bench pieces and ample minor league depth in both the rotation and bullpen (at the very least). There’s been some suggestion that they could pursue a more prominent bat to hit in the middle of the lineup. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman called them a dark horse for Pete Alonso, noting that there’s “some interest” from the O’s. Be that as it may, it’d be a surprise if they did anything more than lurk on the periphery of his market to offer a soft landing if Alonso again struggles to find a long-term deal this winter.

Padres Notes: Rotation, Arraez, Adam

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The Padres’ top priority in the offseason was plain for anyone to see. Even before the announcement that Yu Darvish would miss the 2026 season following UCL surgery, San Diego was already faced with the potential losses of Dylan Cease and Michael King to free agency. Nick Pivetta, meanwhile, has an opt-out opportunity next offseason. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller removed any modicum of doubt about his to-do list at this week’s GM Meetings, telling Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune that “especially with King and Cease in free agency and Darvish’s injury, [starting pitching] is probably our top need going into the offseason.”

More notably, Acee reports that San Diego seems unlikely to play at the top of the market in its quest for rotation help. The Padres have already been exploring the trade market for potential options, per the report. King and Cease both received qualifying offers and seem likely to reject in search of more lucrative multi-year deals. Acee suggests that the Padres will “almost certainly” be moving on from both pitchers. Assuming that’s the case, San Diego will get a pair of draft picks as compensation — though their status as a luxury tax payor means those picks will come after the fourth round rather than after the first round.

At present, the Padres’ rotation includes Pivetta, Joe Musgrove (returning from 2024 Tommy John surgery) and a slew of question marks. JP Sears struggled after coming over from the A’s in the Mason Miller blockbuster. Randy Vasquez posted a solid-looking 3.84 ERA but did so with one of MLB’s worst strikeout rates. Metrics like FIP (4.85) and SIERA (5.43) feel he’s due for major regression. Matt Waldron couldn’t replicate his 2024 form. The rest of the depth was thinned out when Preller traded Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Braden Nett and Henry Baez in deadline trades to acquire catcher Freddy Fermin (Bergert, Kolek) and the aforementioned Miller (Nett, Baez).

Preller acknowledged to both Acee and Dennis Lin of The Athletic that the Padres could again consider moving a reliever to the rotation, as they’ve successfully done in the past with King, Kolek and Seth Lugo. It’s something the club will explore, but Preller noted that in past instances of the Padres making such a move, he only did so when the reliever in question was enthusiastic about the move. Acee notes that moving a reliever to the rotation seems unlikely at present. He lists Miller and Adrian Morejon as possible candidates, as does Lin, who adds righty David Morgan as a possibility for the switch. However, Preller cautioned against depleting the strength of his bullpen, which is already losing Robert Suarez, and noted that it’s important to make sure his club doesn’t end up with “two mediocre units” (referring to his rotation and bullpen).

Though the focus is on the rotation, it’s not the Padres’ only need. Preller tells Robert Murray of FanSided that his club has interest in retaining first baseman Luis Arraez, who’s a free agent for the first time this winter.

The 28-year-old Arraez (29 in April) spent most of the 2024 season and all of 2025 in San Diego after being traded over from Miami. This past season was arguably Arraez’s worst in seven major league seasons. He yet again posted a quality batting average, but not to his usual extent, and he did so with even lesser on-base and slugging marks than usual. Arraez’s .292/.327/.392 is well shy of the career .323/.372/.418 line he carried into the 2025 season.

Arraez feels more like a luxury than a need for the Padres, who could plug in Gavin Sheets at first base as an affordable option or utilize Jake Cronenworth at first and give Sheets more of a DH role. That’d allow the club to pursue middle infielders, with Xander Bogaerts capable of handling either shortstop (as he did in 2025) or second base (as he did in 2024). Arraez doesn’t seem likely to break the bank given the lack of punch and on-base heft behind his perennially strong batting average, but if the Padres plan to focus primarily on rotation help, even a relatively modest two- or three-year deal for Arraez might not be in the cards.

One other question facing San Diego this winter is the health of setup man Jason Adam. The right-hander suffered a season-ending tendon rupture in his quadriceps in early September but is on the road to recovery. Adam tells Jeff Sanders of the Union-Tribune that there’s a chance he’ll be ready for Opening Day, though he could be cutting it close. Adam says he expects to pitch at some point in spring training but may not be “right on time.” He and the team aren’t ruling out Opening Day, which is a clear goal, but he cautions that he “won’t be stupid about” his recovery and risk a setback.

The 34-year-old Adam has risen from relative obscurity to staking a legitimate claim as one of MLB’s top setup arms. Dating back to 2022, he’s pitched to a combined 2.07 ERA, including three seasons with a sub-2.00 mark (and a 2.98 ERA in his “down” year in 2023). Along the way, Adam has fanned 29.2% of his opponents against an 8.4% walk rate. Since 2022, only three relievers — Tyler Rogers, Bryan Abreu, Griffin Jax — have more holds than Adam’s 92.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $6.8MM salary for Adam next season. That’s his final year of club control, so if he were expected to miss a notable portion of the season, Adam would’ve been a natural non-tender candidate, despite his excellence. The fact that he’s now citing Opening Day as a realistic target makes it far likelier that he’s back, though if the Padres are particularly crunched for payroll space — a 2026 budget remains unclear — then they could feasibly look to move Adam for a modest return and reallocate those dollars toward the rotation.

Even with Suarez opting out and Adam in limbo health-wise, the Padres still boast a deep late-inning group with Miller, Morejon (2.08 ERA), Morgan (2.66 ERA as a rookie) and Jeremiah Estrada (3.45 ERA, 35.5 K%) all still in the fold. A healthy Adam would give San Diego one of the best bullpens in MLB, if not the best.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Thirteen players have received a qualifying offer this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The list is as follows:

This year’s QO is valued at $22.025MM. All 13 players will have until Nov. 18 to decide whether to accept that one-year offer or decline and become a free agent. They can spend that time gauging the open market to determine interest in their services. If a player accepts the QO, he’ll be treated as a free agent signing and thus will be ineligible to be traded without his consent until June 15 of next year. If he declines, any team that signs him will be subject to draft and/or international bonus forfeitures, depending on its revenue-sharing and luxury tax status.

The bulk of the list was generally expected. Every recipient other than Torres and Imanaga was pegged as likely or a no-doubter to receive the QO on MLBTR’s annual lists of qualifying offer previews for position players and for pitchers. Torres was viewed as something of a long shot, at least on the MLBTR staff. He’s coming off a nice season in Detroit but struggled through a poor finish — perhaps in part due to injury — and wasn’t hit with a QO last offseason when coming off a comparable year at the plate in the Bronx.

Imanaga was listed as a borderline call on our preview as well. The Cubs declined a three-year, $57.75MM option on Imanaga last week. He subsequently declined a $15.25MM player option (which came with an additional player option at $15.25MM) — effectively opting out of a remaining two years and $30.5MM. The Cubs are banking on Imanaga also turning away one year at just over $22MM after turning down that remaining $30.5MM in guaranteed money.

The qualifying offer is determined each year by taking the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. We’ve already covered the penalties that each team would face for signing a qualified free agent, as well as the compensation each club would get for losing a qualified free agent to another team.

Among the notable free agents to not receive a qualifying offer are Lucas Giolito, Robert Suarez, Devin Williams and Jorge Polanco. Giolito might have received one had it not been for a late elbow issue that ended his season. Suarez has been excellent and just opted out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract, but he’ll be 35 next year. The Padres have been reducing payroll in recent seasons and likely didn’t want to risk Suarez locking in that weighty one-year sum. Williams would have received a QO with a typical season, but he struggled throughout much of the season’s first four months before a dominant finish. Polanco enjoyed a terrific rebound campaign but is 32 years old and was limited to DH work for much of the season due to ongoing injury issues.

The qualifying offer grants each of these free agents the chance at a notable one-year payday, though the majority of them will reject without much thought. Players like Tucker, Bichette, Schwarber, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz are likely to see comparable or larger (much larger, in Tucker’s case) salaries on multi-year deals in free agency. Even players like Grisham, who probably won’t land a $22MM annual value over multiple years, are still likely to reject. Major league free agents typically — though not always — prioritize long-term earning over short-term, higher-AAV pacts. A three- or four-year deal worth $14-16MM per year, for instance, is typically viewed as preferable to accepting one year at a higher rate.

There’s risk in declining the offer, of course. Teams are more reluctant to sign players who’ll cost them valuable draft picks and/or notable portions of their hard-capped bonus pool for international amateurs. Every offseason, there are a handful of free agents whose markets are weighed down by the burden of draft pick compensation. That typically applies to the “lower end” of the QO recipients. For top stars like Tucker, Bichette, etc. — draft/international forfeitures are simply considered the cost of doing business and don’t tend to have much (if any) impact on the player’s earning power.

Michael King Declines Mutual Option With Padres

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Right-hander Michael King has declined his mutual option with the Padres, according to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He’ll head into free agency and collected a $3.75MM buyout rather than stay with the Padres on what would have been a $15MM salary for next year.

King’s decision was entirely expected. Mutual options are virtually never exercised, and King will need to top just $11.25MM in free agency in order to come out ahead in making the choice to decline his option. That’s a number he’s essentially guaranteed to clear, both due to the high price of starting pitching in recent free agent classes and thanks to King’s own success in recent years. After moving to the rotation as a member of the Yankees in late August 2023, King fired off eight starts where he posted a 1.88 ERA with a 31.4% strikeout rate to end the season. After being shipped to San Diego as part of that offseason’s Juan Soto trade, he turned in a 2.95 ERA in 173 2/3 innings of work during his first full-time season as a starter and finished seventh in NL Cy Young award voting last year.

2025 wasn’t quite as strong as 2024, as King was limited to just 15 starts by a nerve issue in his throwing shoulder and a subsequent knee issue. King did return to the mound late in the year, but didn’t look like his usual dominant self with a 5.74 ERA across 15 2/3 September innings. He looked much better in a scoreless inning of relief work against the Cubs, however, and struck out all three batters he faced without issue. That’s good news, since prior to the injury King looked as dominant as ever with a 2.59 ERA and 3.26 FIP across his first ten starts of the year. While he finished the year with a 24.7% strikeout rate against an 8.4% walk rate, those figures were 28.4% and 7.6% prior to his injury.

Thanks to King’s dominance when healthy, he enters free agency with a real chance at a strong multi-year deal so long as suitors are convinced that this year’s shoulder woes are behind him. King is marketing his age-31 season, so between that fact and his shoulder problems this season it’s possible he’ll be boxed out of the five-, six-, or seven-year offers that top of the market aces have gotten in recent years. Even so, he should have the opportunity to clean up fairly handsomely on the open market in a way that would’ve been hard to imagine when looking at his first few years in the league as a middle reliever for the Yankees.

In the short-term, the Padres seem all but certain to extend King a Qualifying Offer, which King seems equally likely to reject. That process will leave King tied to draft pick compensation this winter. Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one. If King departs San Diego, the Padres would receive a compensatory pick after the fourth-round in the 2026 draft. Of course, that would only come in to play if King doesn’t re-sign with the Padres. The team’s clear needs at the top of the rotation mean that a reunion can’t be entirely ruled out, but in recent years San Diego has eschewed giving out large paydays to free agent starters in favor of a more creative approach.

Padres Expected To Activate Michael King

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The Padres are expected to reinstate right-hander Michael King from the injured list to start tomorrow’s game versus the Reds, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He’s been out since early Aug. 9 due to knee troubles. That August start stands as King’s only appearance since mid-May, as he’d previously missed more than two months with a nerve issue in his right shoulder.

King hasn’t pitched in a minor league rehab game, though skipper Mike Shildt said in a radio appearance late last week that he’d tossed five innings in a scrimmage setting at the team’s Arizona Complex League facility. That put him on turn to take the ball Tuesday, which would’ve been Nestor Cortes’ spot in the rotation had he not gone down with a biceps strain this past Friday.

Those shoulder and knee injuries have limited King to just 11 starts this season, though he’s been every bit as excellent in that slate of appearances as he was with the Padres in 2024 and with the Yankees’ rotation late in 2023. King has pitched 57 2/3 frames on the season and carries a terrific 2.81 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate, an 8.1% walk rate, a 38.3% ground-ball rate and 0.94 homers per nine innings. Since moving into a starting role full-time, the former swingman has started 49 games and pitched to a 2.77 ERA. He’s punched out 28.2% of his opponents against an 8.2% walk rate.

King will step back into a San Diego rotation that’s been anchored by offseason signee Nick Pivetta, in terms of both workload and quality. Pivetta’s 164 1/3 innings lead the Friars, and his 2.85 ERA is tops among Padres starters (with the exception of King’s 2.81 in about one-third as many innings). The ultra-durable Dylan Cease has been healthy all season but has continued to struggle to strand runners, leaving him with a 4.71 ERA despite a premium 30% strikeout rate and passable (albeit somewhat elevated) 10% walk rate. Veteran righty Yu Darvish has a 5.75 ERA in his 11 starts, though he’s trimmed that considerably over his past seven trips to the bump (4.11 ERA). Randy Vasquez has kept his ERA under 4.00 despite walking a tightrope with nearly as many walks (9.7%) as strikeouts (12.3%). There’s likely some regression in store for him.

All of that makes getting King back into the mix all the more critical. The Padres added lefties Cortes and JP Sears at the deadline but didn’t deepen their staff overall, given that they sent out starters Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek in the trade that brought catcher Freddy Fermin to Petco Park. Getting King back could be pivotal, particularly since it’ll give him three to four starts to ramp up and get back into form ahead of the Padres’ looming postseason berth.

It’ll also give him a bit more time to build up his case ahead of what’ll be his first trip to the free-agent market. A swift return to form would bode well for the talented righty’s earning power on the open market. If healthy, King should be among the more coveted starting pitchers in free agency this offseason.

King’s return is likely an unwelcome development for the Reds and their fans. Cincinnati sits four games behind the Mets in the National League Wild Card race, tied with the Giants in that regard. A series loss or a sweep at the hands of the Padres could be a backbreaker for their season. From the Padres’ vantage point, winning even two of three would further pad their standing in the Wild Card mix. And, with just a one-game deficit standing between the Friars and the division-leading archrival Dodgers, King could be a pivotal part of a late push for the division.

Padres Place Nestor Cortes On Injured List

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The Padres placed starter Nestor Cortes on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 4, with a biceps strain. San Diego recalled reliever Ron Marinaccio to provide an extra bullpen arm for tonight’s game in Colorado. It might be a one-day MLB stint. Righty Randy Vásquez joined the team at Coors Field and told reporters (including Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune) that he’ll be recalled to start Saturday’s game.

It continues a rough season for Cortes, whom the Friars acquired from the Brewers at the trade deadline. The lefty’s Milwaukee tenure consisted of two starts and eight runs allowed in as many innings. He then suffered a flexor strain that cost him four months. By the time he was ready to return right around the deadline, the Brewers had six or seven better starting pitchers. They traded Cortes to San Diego, who activated him from the IL on August 3.

Things haven’t gone well through six starts. Cortes carries a 5.47 earned run average through 26 1/3 innings. His strikeout, walk and home run rates are all poor. Cortes has managed one strong start, tossing six scoreless innings to beat the Dodgers on August 23. That’s the only time he’s completed six frames with the Padres. He had his worst outing on Wednesday, giving up four homers and six runs without escaping the third inning against Baltimore.

San Diego acquired Cortes and JP Sears at the deadline in an effort to stabilize the back of the rotation. That became increasingly important when they packaged Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek to Kansas City for catcher Freddy Fermin. Neither addition has worked out so far, as Sears has given up nine earned runs in 14 2/3 frames over his first three starts.

The Padres quickly optioned Sears to Triple-A. He apparently has fallen behind Vásquez on the depth chart, as the Friars elected to call up the righty. Sears is scheduled to start tonight in the minors, which would indicate he’s not in the mix to start on Tuesday in what would have been Cortes’ rotation spot. (San Diego relied on a bullpen game the last time they would have needed a fifth starter.) They may be targeting that day for Michael King to return from the injured list. Manager Mike Shildt told 93.7 The Fan that King threw five innings in a scrimmage at the team’s Arizona complex yesterday. Shildt did not commit to a date for the righty’s reinstatement.

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