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Michael King

Michael King Unlikely To Return Prior To All-Star Break

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TODAY: King addressed reporters (including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune) about his status, and said that he is “very confident that I will pitch by the end of the year.”  This framing isn’t exactly a relief to Padres fans since there seemingly hadn’t been any concern that King’s season could be in jeopardy, yet the righty painted a reasonably positive view about the progress that he has made to date.

“I’ve had days where I’ve been really, really frustrated with it and been really sore and felt like I didn’t get much activity that day,” King said.  “And then I’ll wake up the next day and all of a sudden [it’s] like, ’Oh my God, I feel like I can pitch in a game right now.’  So it’s taking it step by step and knowing that [the nerve] can fire when it fires, but obviously it’s that annoying process.  I’ve got a ton of confidence that what we’re doing is the correct thing to do, and I’ve felt my body progress in great ways.”

JUNE 19: The Padres have been without right-hander Michael King for nearly a month now due to a pinched nerve in his shoulder, and it doesn’t sound as though he’ll be rejoining the team anytime soon. Asked yesterday by MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell whether King would be out through the All-Star break, manager Mike Shildt replied, “I think that’s pretty accurate” before declining to put a specific target date on the star right-hander’s return.

It’s a brutal injury for all parties involved. King is a free agent at season’s end and appeared to have a chance at cashing in on a nine-figure contract in free agency after a dominant run dating back to his late-2023 move to the rotation when he was still with the Yankees. An absence of this length owing to a fairly uncommon shoulder issue does him no favors in that regard. From the team’s perspective, he’s one of their top rotation options — if not the top rotation option — and there’s minimal depth to replace him.

[Related: 2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings]

King, 30, opened the 2025 season on a tear. In his first 10 starts, he logged a 2.59 ERA with a gaudy 28.4% strikeout rate, a sharp 7.6% walk rate and a 38.3% grounder rate. He averaged less than a homer per nine innings pitched, held opponents to a pedestrian 88 mph average exit velocity and had tossed his first career shutout against the Rockies on April 13. Add all of that onto to King’s 2024 season and his huge finish to the 2023 campaign, and the former 12th-round pick (Marlins, 2016) boasts an electric 2.72 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate in 267 2/3 innings since his full-time move to rotation work.

With King joining Joe Musgrove (2024 Tommy John surgery) and Yu Darvish (elbow inflammation) on the injured list, the Friars have leaned on Dylan Cease and Nick Pivetta atop their rotation. Cease has had two brutal outings — including his most recent one — that have skewed his ERA, but he had an 11-start run of 3.39 ERA ball with a 30.6% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate between his two meltdowns. Pivetta, who signed a creative four-year deal after lingering in free agency for much of the winter, has proven to be a godsend. He’s cooled a bit after racing out to a 2.01 ERA through his first seven starts but still sports a tidy 3.40 mark on the season, pairing that with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate.

The rest of San Diego’s staff hasn’t been nearly as impressive. Righties Randy Vásquez and Stephen Kolek have both posted mid-3.00 ERA marks but done so with poor strikeout and walk rates (and a poor home run rate, in Vásquez’s case), creating some justifiable skepticism about their ability to sustain their respective marks of 3.70 and 3.59.

Twenty-five-year-old Ryan Bergert has looked strong through his first three career starts and pitched well in nine Triple-A starts, too. His track record is limited, however; he posted a 4.78 ERA in 98 Double-A frames a year ago and has never reached even 110 innings in a professional season. Offseason signee Kyle Hart has been clobbered for a 6.66 ERA in his return from a big year in the Korea Baseball Organization. Knuckleballer Matt Waldron ate up 146 2/3 innings with a 4.91 ERA last year but opened the 2025 season on the injured list due to an oblique strain. He was reinstated from the 60-day IL earlier this month and optioned to Triple-A where he’s made three straight effective starts. He’s likely the next man up if the Padres need another starter.

The emergence of Bergert and the manner in which Kolek has stepped up — even if he’s been shaky since two brilliant starts to begin his season — have left the Padres in a better spot than most would’ve expected upon hearing that both King and Darvish would face protracted absences in 2025. Still, with multiple rotation arms sporting ERAs that don’t appear all that sustainable, King’s nebulous injury status is all the more problematic for San Diego.

This level of uncertainty seemed hard to imagine when King was first placed on the injured list. Shildt said at the time that the right-hander “felt like he slept on [his shoulder] wrong” at that time. It’s clear now that there was something more significant at play. King is doing some occasional light throwing work, but it sounds as though he’ll need to build through a full throwing progression and a rehab stint of some note before he’s back on the big league radar. For a Padres team that’s patching over its rotation with a series of relative unknowns and a pitcher who was eyeing a major contract in free agency, that seemingly innocuous start to his absence has snowballed in a most unwelcome manner.

NL West Notes: King, Waldron, Ohtani, Giants

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The Padres provided an update on the status of right-hander Michael King earlier today, as relayed by Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The good news is that King’s shoulder issue, which sent him to the injured list just last weekend, is not structural in nature. Rather, Sanders writes that the right-hander is dealing with a pinched nerve. Less fortunate, however, is that the Padres remain in the dark about what King’s timetable for a return to action will ultimately look like.

“Now that we’ve been able to locate what the issue is … just trying to get a handle on how to release that nerve a little bit that’s preventing that (scapula) from being able to fire appropriately,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said, as relayed by Sanders. “We’ve got some really smart people, including Michael himself, involved with that process that will get that going as soon as possible, and how soon that is is to the discretion of that nerve.”

The cause of the pinched nerve isn’t known, though King was initially scratched from his start last week due to discomfort in his shoulder after sleeping on it uncomfortably the night prior. Sanders adds that King sought a second opinion on the issue earlier this week and that, because he’s already started to improve, the Padres are not yet ruling out him resuming playing catch by the end of next week. That would potentially allow him to return to the rotation shortly after his minimum stint on the injured list expires without a rehab start, although ultimately King won’t be able to return until the nerve issue has completely resolved itself. Sanders suggests that right-hander Matt Waldron, who pitched 146 2/3 innings for San Diego last year but has been sidelined all season so far due to an oblique strain, could be ready to return from the injured list in the near future and take up King’s rotation spot while he’s on the shelf.

More from around the NL West…

  • The Dodgers watched as Shohei Ohtani continued his slow-going return to pitching earlier today, as Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times was among those to report that the superstar threw two innings of live BP against the Dodgers’ minor league hitters this afternoon. Harris notes that’s a slight uptick from last week’s 22 pitches, and that Ohtani recorded one strikeout and one walk along during the session. After the session, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including USA Today’s Bob Nightengale) that the outing was a “positive” one for Ohtani, though his command wasn’t quite as sharp as his last time out. That Ohtani is continuing to make progress in his rehab is encouraging, although he remains expected to not pitch until some point in the second half of the season. Fortunately, rehabbing hasn’t seemed to slow him down one bit at the plate, as he entered play today slashing .294/.394/.670 with a 187 wRC+, 22 homers and 11 steals.
  • The Giants could be looking to make a change at first base in the near future, even with top prospect Bryce Eldridge not yet at Triple-A. As Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reported on yesterday, the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Sacramento tabbed former top prospect Marco Luciano to serve as their first baseman in a game earlier this week. It’s a new position for the 23-year-old, who has already appeared at second base, shortstop, and in left field over the years, but Rubin notes that the River Cats are expected to continue using Luciano at first going forward as concern mounts about the club’s production at the position in the majors. LaMonte Wade Jr. is the club’s starter at the position, but after entering the year with a 115 wRC+ in a Giants uniform he’s slashed just .171/.278/.279 with a wRC+ of 60 across 48 games. Luciano has yet to hit in the majors himself, with a career 68 wRC+ in the majors, but even his meager production in 126 career plate appearances would be an improvement over Wade’s numbers this season. Plus, Luciano is a former consensus top-20 prospect in the sport who may be able to tap into that potential if offered regular reps at the big league level. While Luciano begins to learn the new position, the Giants will hope that Jerar Encarnación’s eventual return from the injured list is enough to help improve the club’s first base production going forward.

Padres Place Michael King On 15-Day Injured List

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The Padres announced that right-hander Michael King has been placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to May 22) due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder.  Righty David Morgan was called up from Triple-A El Paso to take King’s spot on the active roster, and earlier today, the Padres also called up left-hander Omar Cruz while right-hander Alek Jacob was optioned to Triple-A.

King was scheduled to start Saturday’s game against the Braves, but he was scratched from the lineup after arriving at the ballpark with a sore shoulder.  The righty “just felt like he slept on it wrong,” manager Mike Shildt told the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee and other media members yesterday, and the discomfort persisted after some pregame testing and weighted-ball tossing.

After another day of evaluation, the decision was clearly made to put King onto the 15-day IL, perhaps just as precaution.  Shildt said yesterday that “we do believe it’s not anything overly serious” and that King perhaps may have been able to pitch Saturday, but the club saw no reason to risk a more serious injury.

The centerpiece of the trade package the Yankees sent to the Padres in the Juan Soto trade, King more than lived up to the hype in his first season in San Diego.  King had already gone from dominant reliever to dominant starter after he was moved into New York’s rotation near the end of the 2023 season, and he continued to elevate his game with a 2.95 ERA over 173 2/3 innings with the Padres last year.  That superlative effort earned King a seventh-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting, and he has kept up the terrific work this year.

Over 10 starts and 55 2/3 innings in 2025, King has a 2.59 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, and 7.6% walk rate.  Both of the latter figures are improvements over his already strong numbers in 2024, though his whiff rate (28.4%) has declined and King is allowing far more hard contact than he did last year.  These issues notwithstanding, King has continued to look the part of a frontline pitcher, and he has paired with Nick Pivetta to form a big one-two punch at the top of San Diego’s rotation.

Losing King even for 15 days, then, would be a setback for a Padres team that is still missing Yu Darvish to injury.  Darvish threw four innings in a Triple-A rehab start on May 14 but hasn’t pitched since, seemingly adding some fresh doubt over when exactly Darvish will be making his 2025 debut.  Shildt did say two weeks ago that Darvish’s rehab work would be going somewhat by feel rather than a strict throwing progression, as the club was relying on Darvish’s experience and knowledge of his arm to gauge his readiness.

With King and Darvish out, the Padres’ rotation now consists of Pivetta, Dylan Cease, Randy Vasquez, and Stephen Kolek.  Kyle Hart is the only other pitcher who has made any starts for the Padres this year, as he had a 6.00 ERA in five starts and 21 innings for Friars before being optioned to Triple-A in April.  Hart is the likeliest candidate to take King’s spot in the rotation, as Matt Waldron is also on a rehab assignment in his own recovery from an oblique strain.

Yesterday’s impromptu bullpen game saw the Padres use Jacob and three other pitchers, so Jacob was optioned in part to bring some fresh arms into the bullpen.  Cruz is a swingman who has started four of his eight Triple-A appearances this season, and he made his MLB debut earlier in 2025 in the form of two relief outings and 3 2/3 total innings for the Padres.  He might also factor into the rotation plans in some limited capacity with King out, as the Padres will need all hands on deck for a stretch of 26 games in 27 days that starts off on Friday.

With the Friars in need of pitching help, Morgan will get another opportunity to make his MLB debut.  The right-hander’s contract was selected to the big league roster back in late April, but Morgan was optioned to Triple-A a week later without ever getting into a game.  Morgan had never pitched even at the Triple-A level before that unexpected call-up, and after showing up in El Paso earlier this month, he has been hit hard to the tune of a 12.71 ERA over seven appearances and 5 2/3 innings.

Extreme problems with the home run ball have plagued Morgan this year, as he has allowed five homers over 14 1/3 total minor league frames at the Double-A and Triple-A levels.  For comparison, the righty had given up only seven big flies in his 108 1/3 previous minor league innings.  Morgan has displayed excellent control throughout his minor league career, and his good strikeout numbers have spiked to an eye-popping 45.45% over his 14 1/3 innings in 2025.

Padres Notes: Cronenworth, Cease, King, Suarez

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The Padres activated Jake Cronenworth from the 10-day injured list yesterday, and the infielder went 1-for-3 with two walks and two runs scored in Friday’s 13-9 win over the Rockies.  Cronenworth ended up missing almost exactly a month of action due to a non-displaced fracture in his right ribs that he suffered after being hit by a pitch.

Since the bone isn’t fully healed, Cronenworth told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that he will wear a padded undershirt for the time being, and he’ll add another layer of padding when he is at the plate.  Despite the precaution, Cronenworth said he is feeling good, and might have been able to return from the IL earlier but the team wanted to wait until the bone had healed to the point that a re-aggravation is less likely.

The injury cut short a hot start for Cronenworth, who has a .263/.429/.474 slash line over his first 49 plate appearances of the 2025 season.  Some regression is inevitable, but the Padres are certainly hoping he can keep providing at least some level of above-average production, after Cronenworth batted a subpar .236/.318/.385 in 1178 PA in 2023-24.

As San Diego’s lineup gets healthier, Dylan Cease also seems to have avoided any kind of injury after he left his last start with a forearm cramp.  While any sort of forearm issue is cause for concern, Cease got through a 90-foot game of catch on Friday (part of his usual between-starts routine) with no issue, so it seems as if the right-hander should be making his next outing.  Since the Padres didn’t play this past Thursday, Cease can even have an extra day of rest to fully ensure he is ready for his next scheduled start, on Wednesday against the Angels.

Cease has yet to get fully on track this season, as the righty has posted a 4.91 ERA over eight starts and 40 1/3 innings.  There isn’t much of a marked change in Cease’s peripherals from 2024, so his inflated ERA might simply be a case of bad batted-ball luck (a .333 BABIP).  The standout number might be that Cease’s signature slider has been “only” a pretty good pitch in 2025, as opposed to when it was arguably the most devastating pitch in the majors in both the 2022 and 2024 seasons.

Getting back to top form is of particular importance to Cease this season, as he’ll be perhaps the top pitcher available in free agency this coming winter if he delivers a strong campaign.  Since both Cease and fellow starter Michael King are slated to become free agents, both pitchers were heavily mentioned in trade rumors throughout the offseason and even deep into Spring Training.  As it turned out, San Diego ended up retaining both starters, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that “the Padres would love to keep one of” the duo over the long term.

Keeping just one (at most) of the starters always seemed like the most logical outcome for the Padres, given how both Cease and King are on pace to command big salaries and San Diego already has a lot of long-term contracts on the books.  The logic behind the trade speculation was that the Padres might look to move some salary and address other needs by trading whichever of the two pitchers they felt less confident about signing, but the Friars instead pivoted by keeping not just Cease and King, but most of the other higher-priced players rumored to be on the trade market.

Robert Suarez was one of those players who reportedly received some trade interest, but “no team made a serious play for” his services, Heyman writes.  The flame-throwing Suarez racked up 36 saves last season while posting a 2.77 ERA and an above-average walk rate in 65 innings.  Some of his other metrics were more middling, however, and Suarez’s age (he turned 34 in March) and his contract status were perhaps obstacles to a deal.

Suarez is owed the remainder of a $10MM salary this season, and is owed $8MM in each of the 2026 and 2027 seasons.  However, those final two seasons are actually player options, and at season’s end, Suarez can either simultaneously trigger both options, or opt out entirely to re-enter free agency.  Given this uncertain contract status, teams might not have wanted to give up too much for just one year of control if Suarez opted out, or some other teams might have been wary about being on the hook for $26MM to a 34-year-old reliever.

The lack of attractive offers may have made the decision to keep Suarez pretty easy for the Padres, but in any event, the club is surely glad the closer is still on the roster.  Suarez has a superb 0.51 ERA in 17 2/3 innings, with a league-high 15 saves and a greatly improved 29.5% strikeout rate.  A .154 BABIP is surely contributing to Suarez’s success, but even if Suarez’s 2.87 SIERA is a better reflection of his actual performance, that is still more than solid.

MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss MLBTR’s first edition of the 2025-26 Free Agent Power Rankings, including these focal points…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images

Latest On Dylan Cease, Michael King

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As is the case every year, Spring Training has brought a handful of significant pitching injuries. The Yankees have been hit the hardest. They confirmed this evening that they’re losing Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery — a week after Luis Gil went down for months with a lat strain. The Mets will open the season without Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas. The Mariners (George Kirby) and Orioles (Grayson Rodriguez) will each begin the year without a pitcher who would’ve been in the upper half of their respective rotations.

The injuries have reignited speculation about a Spring Training jolt to the trade market. A few fanbases are surely hoping their teams can line up with the Padres. San Diego entertained interest in impending free agents Dylan Cease and Michael King early in the offseason. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has shown a willingness to make significant trades at unconventional times on the calendar, including last spring’s deal to land Cease from the White Sox.

That still seems unlikely. Preller indicated at the start of camp that the team’s focus was on retaining its rotation. That hasn’t stopped teams from calling about the Padres’ top two starters. However, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that King is “virtually assured” of sticking with San Diego into the regular season. The door seems just slightly more open on Cease. Acee reports that the Padres would only consider moving Cease if the return includes a significant upgrade in one or more of their weakest lineup positions: catcher, left field, and designated hitter.

Budgetary constraints limited the Padres’ free agent activity for most of the offseason. They moved late to add Nick Pivetta on an extremely backloaded four-year free agent deal. A few days later, they brought in Kyle Hart on a $1.5MM contract. They could round out the rotation behind Cease, King, and Yu Darvish. San Diego opted for low-cost acquisitions to fill out the lineup. Elias Díaz is back on a $3.5MM contract to catch. They added Jason Heyward and Connor Joe for a combined $2MM to work as the left field platoon. The Padres don’t have a set designated hitter.

Rotation depth is still a question. Hart is coming off a strong season in Korea, but he has 11 career MLB innings (which came five years ago). Injuries will force them to rely on the likes of Randy Vásquez, Stephen Kolek and Matt Waldron throughout the season. It’s hard to envision them trading Cease without netting at least one starting pitcher who’d jump directly into their rotation. Other teams are presumably reluctant to part with a controllable starter and a significant lineup upgrade. That’s especially true at a stage of the offseason when they wouldn’t have many options to backfill the lineup in free agency.

King and Cease could be the subject of more realistic trade rumors in a few months depending on the team’s place in the standings. They’d be highly sought after rental targets if the Padres underperform in the first half. San Diego will almost certainly make qualifying offers to both pitchers if they don’t deal them, but they’d land much stronger prospect returns in trade if they fall out of contention.

Padres Reportedly Expected To Keep Dylan Cease, Michael King

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12:01pm: President of baseball operations A.J. Preller was asked about the Cease rumors today. “He’s a very big part of our club,” Preller said, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. “The additions the last couple days supplement what’s a really good rotation. That’s our focus here going forward — having that strong rotation.”

10:30am: Rumors have swirled all winter about the Padres trading a starting pitcher such as Dylan Cease or Michael King. Yesterday, they added to the rotation by agreeing to a deal with Nick Pivetta. They made another modest rotation add today by signing lefty Kyle Hart. It would be fair to wonder if those signings were precursors to a trade but Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club is “inclined” to keep their starters and open the season with a rotation of Cease, King, Pivetta and Yu Darvish. That report came out before the Hart signing, though it seems unlikely that such a modest deal would impact the club’s plans for a headline-grabbing deal.

It’s a perfectly logical stance from a roster perspective. The rotation depth has appeared thin all winter. Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery in October, putting a big hole in the starting group. Cease, King and Darvish gave the club a decent three but the depth options all had question marks. Matt Waldron showed some potential in the first half of last year but had an 8.10 ERA in the second half. Guys like Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito had some passable ERAs last year but with middling strikeout rates.

The only reason a trade of Cease or King was even considered was the club’s financial situation. They had spent aggressively for several years but then they hit a wall in 2023. Their TV deal collapsed, putting a dent in revenue. There were plans to scale back spending going into 2024, even before Peter Seidler died, which has led to an ongoing ownership squabble.

The financial squeeze led the Padres to trade Juan Soto and Trent Grisham last offseason for a five-player package. Losing Soto certainly wasn’t ideal but it saved some money and helped add some pitching depth. This winter, the thought was that a similar trade might be necessary, with names like Cease, King, Luis Arráez and Robert Suarez thrown around as possible candidates. None of those players are as talented or expensive as Soto but the theoretical plan would be similar, to trade one good but pricey impending free agent for several lesser but cheaper and controllable players to patch several roster holes.

Lin’s report now suggests that isn’t likely to come to fruition. He does leave the door open a little bit, suggesting the Friars could be bowled over by an offer from another club, but it seems holding this rotation core is the mostly likely outcome. Assuming the club doesn’t pivot to a trade, they will go into camp with a strong front four and with Hart jumping into a competition for a back-end role alongside Waldron, Vásquez and others. Stephen Kolek is also going to be stretched out to potentially give some extra depth.

Perhaps the club never got a trade offer that they found particularly compelling or perhaps they simply decided to creatively dance around the payroll situation. Trading a starter to improve rotation depth was always going to be a difficult task, so perhaps they thought it better to just address their holes on a budget. In left field, it seems that a platoon of Jason Heyward and Connor Joe is the move. They each got a $1MM guarantee plus bonuses, so the Friars only committed $2MM there.

Elias Díaz got a $3.5MM guarantee to join Luis Campusano behind the plate, but even that modest guarantee was backloaded. Díaz will get a $1.5MM guarantee and then a $2MM buyout on a $7MM mutual option. The buyout won’t be due until the end of the season, so it allows the Padres to avoid more than half of that guarantee in the short term.

The Pivetta deal is also significantly backloaded. Though he’s guaranteed $55MM on his four-year deal, he’ll only get $4MM this year, in the form of a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary. The remaining $51MM will be paid out with salaries of $19MM, $14MM and $18MM in the three following seasons, with Pivetta able to opt out after the second and third seasons. Even King’s $7.75MM salary to avoid arbitration helped the club in the short term. That money breaks down as a $3MM signing bonus, $1MM salary and then a $3.75MM buyout on a $15MM mutual option. Hart’s deal only guarantees him $1.5MM, with $500K of that being a club option buyout.

Because of those creative maneuvers and some other backloaded deals, the Friars have a big gap between their actual payroll and competitive balance tax number. The latter is calculated via the average annual value of contracts, so a guy like Pivetta will have a $13.75MM CBT hit this year, even though he’ll make far less than that in 2025.

RosterResource currently pegs the Friars for a $259MM CBT number but an actual payroll of just $207MM. That payroll is still a big spike from last year but perhaps it’s manageable enough that the club doesn’t have to pivot to trading Cease or King. The CBT number will lead to some taxes, but they will be modest.

The Padres reset their tax status by ducking under the line last year, meaning they would be “first-time” payors if they pay in 2025. That means their base tax rate is 20% on overages. With their current projection, that would lead to a tax bill of just $3.6MM. That’s also not calculated until the end of the season. If things go poorly during 2025, they could flip Cease, King or other players at the deadline, thus lowering their tax bill or ducking under the line completely.

They could also cut down this year’s payroll in the short term in other ways, with Lin suggesting a trade of Suarez is more likely than one involving Cease. Suarez is making $26MM over the next three years, broken down as $10MM this year and $8MM in the final two seasons of his deal. However, he can opt out of his contract after 2025, which will complicate trade talks.

It’s hard to agree on fair trade value when opt-outs are involved. For an acquiring team, they know they will only get one year of Suarez if he performs well. He would only stick around for 2026 and 2027 if he pitches poorly or is hurt. The limited upside and significant downside generally makes clubs unwilling to give up significant talent for such an arrangement.

For clubs still looking for a frontline starter like Cease, they don’t really have other options at this stage of the winter. The free agent market does still have some guys available, such as Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Jakob Junis and others, but they are more mid-rotation or back-end options. Guys like Marcus Stroman and Jordan Montgomery are likely available in trade but they’re also mid-rotation guys at best and coming off difficult seasons.

Teams such as the Mets, Twins, Cubs and Orioles have been connected to Cease but they haven’t been able to get him thus far. Other clubs would be sensible fits. Unless they bowl over the Padres or the Friars are just posturing for leverage, those clubs might have to be patient. They could consider some of the aforementioned mid-rotation options or wait to see if the deadline offers the big rotation upgrade they seek.

No Extension Talks Between Padres, Michael King

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Yesterday, the Padres and right-hander Michael King avoided an arbitration hearing with a creative deal that guarantees King $7.75MM. The deal splits that guarantee between a signing bonus and the buyout on a 2026 mutual option in addition to his 2025 salary in order to slightly ease some of the financial issues facing San Diego as they look to upgrade their roster this winter. Despite the sides’ ability to come together on an unusual solution to their dispute over King’s salary for this year, however, the right-hander told reporters (including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune) at the Padres’ FanFest event today that he has not been approached regarding a long-term extension that would keep him in San Diego beyond the 2025 season.

That there apparently has not yet been a conversation between the two camps about a long-term deal is an interesting development given previous reports that the club believes King to be more amenable to the possibility of an extension than fellow walk year righty Dylan Cease. Those rumors have led to a belief throughout the offseason that San Diego would prefer to deal Cease rather than King if they end up trading one of their two front-of-the-rotation arms amid their pursuit of pitching depth and lineup upgrades. That appears to still be the case, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the club is “not actively shopping” King in the aftermath of the sides reaching an arbitration agreement. Acee is quick to note that the new contract doesn’t necessarily preclude a trade from occurring, but it appears clearer than ever that the Padres’ preference is for the departing pitcher to be Cease if they wind up dealing one of their top arms.

As for King, the righty spoke to reporters (including Sanders) about the swirling trade rumors today, saying that he would be “shocked” if he were to be traded before adding that hearing your name in the rumor mill is “part of the business.”

“Obviously anything can happen,” King said, as relayed by Sanders. “I didn’t think I was going to get traded over here that offseason last year. Anything can happen.”

While it’s unclear whether King’s confidence that he’ll be in a Padres uniform on Opening Day and the club’s apparent preference for dealing Cease if one of the pair is traded will actually lead to King remaining in San Diego, it should be noted that the sides not yet having discussed an extension does not preclude them from doing so in the coming weeks. Extension negotiations between players and clubs frequently open after the start of Spring Training, and the Padres have been among the most prolific clubs in the sport when it comes to springtime extensions in recent years.

It was just two years ago that San Diego signed Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, and Yu Darvish to a trio of lengthy extensions over the course of Spring Training 2023, and two years before that the club famously agreed to a massive $340MM contract with Fernando Tatis Jr. during Spring Training 2021. They’ve at least explored extensions with other players during the spring in recent years as well, such as Jackson Merrill last winter. Whether King will join the list of Padres player to put pen to paper on extensions just before reaching free agency remains to be seen, but even with no talks between the sides to this point the possibility of some discussions between the sides this spring can’t be ruled out.

Aside from San Diego’s hefty payroll commitments that have limited their flexibility in recent years, one potential obstacle for any King extension would surely be his unusual history. The right-hander posted an excellent season in 2024 with a 2.95 ERA in 173 2/3 innings of work, but that was his first season pitching as a full-time starting pitcher since 2018, during his age-23 season in the minor leagues. While King’s 39 starts since being put back in the rotation by the Yankees down the stretch last year have been electric, his ability to keep up with a 150+ inning workload for a second consecutive season will surely have a major impact on his value in free agency. Given the importance of his platform season, it wouldn’t be a shock if the sides struggled to reach an agreement on what fair value looks like even if they do engage in extension talks at some point before Opening Day.

Padres, Michael King Avoid Arbitration

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The Padres announced Friday that they’ve avoided arbitration with right-hander Michael King, coming to terms on a one-year deal with a mutual option for the 2026 season. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that King will be guaranteed $7.75MM, taking the form of a $3MM signing bonus, just a $1MM salary, and a $3.75MM buyout on a $15MM mutual option. King can boost his guarantee to $8MM, as the contract includes a $50K bonus for reaching 20 starts and bonuses of $100K for reaching 25 and 28 starts. The structure of the deal will perhaps free up a bit of 2025 budget for a payroll-crunched Padres club. King and his reps at Excel Sports Management had filed for an $8.8MM salary. The Padres countered at $7.325MM.

While the arrangement nominally extends the window of control over King, mutual options are at best a technicality; they’re almost never picked up by both sides. The player either outperforms the option value and declines in favor of a trip to free agency, or he underperforms and/or sustains an injury that prompts the team to decline and move on. It’s been more than 10 years since two parties agreed to exercise their end of a mutual option (Matt Belisle, Rockies in Nov. 2013).

Still, by including a mutual option on the contract, the Padres technically stick to the near-leaguewide file-and-trial mantra, wherein teams cut off negotiation on one-year deals once salary figures are exchanged. King’s deal is, of course, a one-year contract — but the presence of the option renders it moot for future arbitration negotiations. Even though there’s virtually no chance of the option being exercised, its mere presence means that King’s agreement cannot be used as a comp (for the Padres or for other clubs) when negotiating contracts with players who are comparable in terms of statistics or service time.

King, 29 (30 in May), was acquired from the Yankees as one of five players in last season’s Juan Soto blockbuster with the Yankees. He’d been primarily a reliever prior to his inclusion in that swap, though a terrific nine-start stretch late in the 2023 season had thrust him into the Yankees’ rotation plans. Instead, he had his first full season as a starter in San Diego rather than the Bronx, and the results were outstanding. In a career-high 173 2/3 frames, King turned in a 2.95 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate, an 8.7% walk rate and a 40.4% ground-ball rate. He now sports a 2.91 ERA in his past 392 2/3 innings, spanning the 2021-24 seasons.

As a free agent following the season, King’s name has floated around the rumor circuit for a Padres club that has had payroll questions all offseason. San Diego hopes to contend in 2025, so the only way they’d move King (or rotationmate and fellow pending free agent Dylan Cease) would be if the return included an immediate rotation replacement and additional big league-ready talent. Teams in search of rotation help will continue to inquire, as it seems inevitable that the Padres will eventually make some kind trade to free up payroll space and simultaneously plug some roster holes.

Poll: Should The Padres Trade Dylan Cease Or Michael King?

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While the Padres no longer appear to be under a mandate to cut payroll for the 2025 season, signs still point to the club needing to make a trade or two in order to free up space in an already-maximized budget if they hope to address multiple holes in the lineup. That’s led to plenty of rumors surrounding the club’s pending free agents, the most valuable of whom are without a doubt right-handers Dylan Cease and Michael King.

Trading a front-line starter like Cease or King might seem counterproductive for a club that’s already lacking in rotation depth, but it’s possible that the trade return for either player could involve a young starter or two while allowing the Padres to reallocate the freed up payroll space to the lineup. It’s surely under that logic that San Diego has explored Cease’s market and discussed King with rival clubs as well. The Padres have reportedly been more resistant to trading King under the belief that he’s more likely than Cease to sign an extension, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is generally open-minded when it comes to trade discussions. That the two sides face a nearly $1.5MM gap after exchanging salary figures and appear headed toward an arbitration hearing only adds an additional layer of complexity.

Cease, 29, is the bigger name of the two righties. A longtime top prospect with the Cubs and White Sox, the right-hander debuted on the south side back in 2019 and had developed into a legitimate front-end arm by 2021. Over the past four seasons, he’s pitched to a 3.52 ERA (120 ERA+) with a 3.32 FIP and an excellent 29.7% strikeout rate. Perhaps even more impressive than Cease’s strong rate numbers is his volume. The right-hander has been a workhorse by the standards of the modern game with 716 innings of work across 130 starts since the start of 2021. That’s the most starts and seventh-highest innings count of any starter in that time.

By contrast, King doesn’t offer the same level of star power or track record. The 2024 campaign was actually the first time King has acted as a full-time starter in the majors, and his 173 2/3 innings of work were not only a career high but the first time he had thrown even 105 innings since 2018. The results can’t be denied, however, and King was nothing short of excellent. He posted a 2.95 ERA (139 ERA+) with a 3.33 FIP. His peripherals are quite similar to Cease, as well; his 27.7% strikeout rate was a touch lower than Cease’s 29.4% figure, but his 8.7% walk rate was nearly identical to Cease’s 8.5%. King’s 6.2% barrel rate was far better than that of Cease.

Given that similar production and a price tag that’ll be $5-7MM less than that of Cease, it’s easy to imagine some clubs preferring King between the two. If King can fetch what the Padres deem to be a better return, moving the more affordable arm and keeping the more proven/durable righty makes some sense. On the other hand, King still seems likelier to sign an extension than the Boras Corp-represented Cease, and Cease has shown some year-to-year volatility. He posted a below-average ERA as recently as 2023.

If you were in Preller’s shoes and needed to free up some payroll space to address various holes on the roster, how would you proceed with your coveted rotation duo? Have your say in the poll below:

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