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Padres Notes: Rotation, Arraez, Adam

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The Padres’ top priority in the offseason was plain for anyone to see. Even before the announcement that Yu Darvish would miss the 2026 season following UCL surgery, San Diego was already faced with the potential losses of Dylan Cease and Michael King to free agency. Nick Pivetta, meanwhile, has an opt-out opportunity next offseason. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller removed any modicum of doubt about his to-do list at this week’s GM Meetings, telling Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune that “especially with King and Cease in free agency and Darvish’s injury, [starting pitching] is probably our top need going into the offseason.”

More notably, Acee reports that San Diego seems unlikely to play at the top of the market in its quest for rotation help. The Padres have already been exploring the trade market for potential options, per the report. King and Cease both received qualifying offers and seem likely to reject in search of more lucrative multi-year deals. Acee suggests that the Padres will “almost certainly” be moving on from both pitchers. Assuming that’s the case, San Diego will get a pair of draft picks as compensation — though their status as a luxury tax payor means those picks will come after the fourth round rather than after the first round.

At present, the Padres’ rotation includes Pivetta, Joe Musgrove (returning from 2024 Tommy John surgery) and a slew of question marks. JP Sears struggled after coming over from the A’s in the Mason Miller blockbuster. Randy Vasquez posted a solid-looking 3.84 ERA but did so with one of MLB’s worst strikeout rates. Metrics like FIP (4.85) and SIERA (5.43) feel he’s due for major regression. Matt Waldron couldn’t replicate his 2024 form. The rest of the depth was thinned out when Preller traded Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Braden Nett and Henry Baez in deadline trades to acquire catcher Freddy Fermin (Bergert, Kolek) and the aforementioned Miller (Nett, Baez).

Preller acknowledged to both Acee and Dennis Lin of The Athletic that the Padres could again consider moving a reliever to the rotation, as they’ve successfully done in the past with King, Kolek and Seth Lugo. It’s something the club will explore, but Preller noted that in past instances of the Padres making such a move, he only did so when the reliever in question was enthusiastic about the move. Acee notes that moving a reliever to the rotation seems unlikely at present. He lists Miller and Adrian Morejon as possible candidates, as does Lin, who adds righty David Morgan as a possibility for the switch. However, Preller cautioned against depleting the strength of his bullpen, which is already losing Robert Suarez, and noted that it’s important to make sure his club doesn’t end up with “two mediocre units” (referring to his rotation and bullpen).

Though the focus is on the rotation, it’s not the Padres’ only need. Preller tells Robert Murray of FanSided that his club has interest in retaining first baseman Luis Arraez, who’s a free agent for the first time this winter.

The 28-year-old Arraez (29 in April) spent most of the 2024 season and all of 2025 in San Diego after being traded over from Miami. This past season was arguably Arraez’s worst in seven major league seasons. He yet again posted a quality batting average, but not to his usual extent, and he did so with even lesser on-base and slugging marks than usual. Arraez’s .292/.327/.392 is well shy of the career .323/.372/.418 line he carried into the 2025 season.

Arraez feels more like a luxury than a need for the Padres, who could plug in Gavin Sheets at first base as an affordable option or utilize Jake Cronenworth at first and give Sheets more of a DH role. That’d allow the club to pursue middle infielders, with Xander Bogaerts capable of handling either shortstop (as he did in 2025) or second base (as he did in 2024). Arraez doesn’t seem likely to break the bank given the lack of punch and on-base heft behind his perennially strong batting average, but if the Padres plan to focus primarily on rotation help, even a relatively modest two- or three-year deal for Arraez might not be in the cards.

One other question facing San Diego this winter is the health of setup man Jason Adam. The right-hander suffered a season-ending tendon rupture in his quadriceps in early September but is on the road to recovery. Adam tells Jeff Sanders of the Union-Tribune that there’s a chance he’ll be ready for Opening Day, though he could be cutting it close. Adam says he expects to pitch at some point in spring training but may not be “right on time.” He and the team aren’t ruling out Opening Day, which is a clear goal, but he cautions that he “won’t be stupid about” his recovery and risk a setback.

The 34-year-old Adam has risen from relative obscurity to staking a legitimate claim as one of MLB’s top setup arms. Dating back to 2022, he’s pitched to a combined 2.07 ERA, including three seasons with a sub-2.00 mark (and a 2.98 ERA in his “down” year in 2023). Along the way, Adam has fanned 29.2% of his opponents against an 8.4% walk rate. Since 2022, only three relievers — Tyler Rogers, Bryan Abreu, Griffin Jax — have more holds than Adam’s 92.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $6.8MM salary for Adam next season. That’s his final year of club control, so if he were expected to miss a notable portion of the season, Adam would’ve been a natural non-tender candidate, despite his excellence. The fact that he’s now citing Opening Day as a realistic target makes it far likelier that he’s back, though if the Padres are particularly crunched for payroll space — a 2026 budget remains unclear — then they could feasibly look to move Adam for a modest return and reallocate those dollars toward the rotation.

Even with Suarez opting out and Adam in limbo health-wise, the Padres still boast a deep late-inning group with Miller, Morejon (2.08 ERA), Morgan (2.66 ERA as a rookie) and Jeremiah Estrada (3.45 ERA, 35.5 K%) all still in the fold. A healthy Adam would give San Diego one of the best bullpens in MLB, if not the best.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Thirteen players have received a qualifying offer this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The list is as follows:

This year’s QO is valued at $22.025MM. All 13 players will have until Nov. 18 to decide whether to accept that one-year offer or decline and become a free agent. They can spend that time gauging the open market to determine interest in their services. If a player accepts the QO, he’ll be treated as a free agent signing and thus will be ineligible to be traded without his consent until June 15 of next year. If he declines, any team that signs him will be subject to draft and/or international bonus forfeitures, depending on its revenue-sharing and luxury tax status.

The bulk of the list was generally expected. Every recipient other than Torres and Imanaga was pegged as likely or a no-doubter to receive the QO on MLBTR’s annual lists of qualifying offer previews for position players and for pitchers. Torres was viewed as something of a long shot, at least on the MLBTR staff. He’s coming off a nice season in Detroit but struggled through a poor finish — perhaps in part due to injury — and wasn’t hit with a QO last offseason when coming off a comparable year at the plate in the Bronx.

Imanaga was listed as a borderline call on our preview as well. The Cubs declined a three-year, $57.75MM option on Imanaga last week. He subsequently declined a $15.25MM player option (which came with an additional player option at $15.25MM) — effectively opting out of a remaining two years and $30.5MM. The Cubs are banking on Imanaga also turning away one year at just over $22MM after turning down that remaining $30.5MM in guaranteed money.

The qualifying offer is determined each year by taking the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. We’ve already covered the penalties that each team would face for signing a qualified free agent, as well as the compensation each club would get for losing a qualified free agent to another team.

Among the notable free agents to not receive a qualifying offer are Lucas Giolito, Robert Suarez, Devin Williams and Jorge Polanco. Giolito might have received one had it not been for a late elbow issue that ended his season. Suarez has been excellent and just opted out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract, but he’ll be 35 next year. The Padres have been reducing payroll in recent seasons and likely didn’t want to risk Suarez locking in that weighty one-year sum. Williams would have received a QO with a typical season, but he struggled throughout much of the season’s first four months before a dominant finish. Polanco enjoyed a terrific rebound campaign but is 32 years old and was limited to DH work for much of the season due to ongoing injury issues.

The qualifying offer grants each of these free agents the chance at a notable one-year payday, though the majority of them will reject without much thought. Players like Tucker, Bichette, Schwarber, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz are likely to see comparable or larger (much larger, in Tucker’s case) salaries on multi-year deals in free agency. Even players like Grisham, who probably won’t land a $22MM annual value over multiple years, are still likely to reject. Major league free agents typically — though not always — prioritize long-term earning over short-term, higher-AAV pacts. A three- or four-year deal worth $14-16MM per year, for instance, is typically viewed as preferable to accepting one year at a higher rate.

There’s risk in declining the offer, of course. Teams are more reluctant to sign players who’ll cost them valuable draft picks and/or notable portions of their hard-capped bonus pool for international amateurs. Every offseason, there are a handful of free agents whose markets are weighed down by the burden of draft pick compensation. That typically applies to the “lower end” of the QO recipients. For top stars like Tucker, Bichette, etc. — draft/international forfeitures are simply considered the cost of doing business and don’t tend to have much (if any) impact on the player’s earning power.

Michael King Declines Mutual Option With Padres

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Right-hander Michael King has declined his mutual option with the Padres, according to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He’ll head into free agency and collected a $3.75MM buyout rather than stay with the Padres on what would have been a $15MM salary for next year.

King’s decision was entirely expected. Mutual options are virtually never exercised, and King will need to top just $11.25MM in free agency in order to come out ahead in making the choice to decline his option. That’s a number he’s essentially guaranteed to clear, both due to the high price of starting pitching in recent free agent classes and thanks to King’s own success in recent years. After moving to the rotation as a member of the Yankees in late August 2023, King fired off eight starts where he posted a 1.88 ERA with a 31.4% strikeout rate to end the season. After being shipped to San Diego as part of that offseason’s Juan Soto trade, he turned in a 2.95 ERA in 173 2/3 innings of work during his first full-time season as a starter and finished seventh in NL Cy Young award voting last year.

2025 wasn’t quite as strong as 2024, as King was limited to just 15 starts by a nerve issue in his throwing shoulder and a subsequent knee issue. King did return to the mound late in the year, but didn’t look like his usual dominant self with a 5.74 ERA across 15 2/3 September innings. He looked much better in a scoreless inning of relief work against the Cubs, however, and struck out all three batters he faced without issue. That’s good news, since prior to the injury King looked as dominant as ever with a 2.59 ERA and 3.26 FIP across his first ten starts of the year. While he finished the year with a 24.7% strikeout rate against an 8.4% walk rate, those figures were 28.4% and 7.6% prior to his injury.

Thanks to King’s dominance when healthy, he enters free agency with a real chance at a strong multi-year deal so long as suitors are convinced that this year’s shoulder woes are behind him. King is marketing his age-31 season, so between that fact and his shoulder problems this season it’s possible he’ll be boxed out of the five-, six-, or seven-year offers that top of the market aces have gotten in recent years. Even so, he should have the opportunity to clean up fairly handsomely on the open market in a way that would’ve been hard to imagine when looking at his first few years in the league as a middle reliever for the Yankees.

In the short-term, the Padres seem all but certain to extend King a Qualifying Offer, which King seems equally likely to reject. That process will leave King tied to draft pick compensation this winter. Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one. If King departs San Diego, the Padres would receive a compensatory pick after the fourth-round in the 2026 draft. Of course, that would only come in to play if King doesn’t re-sign with the Padres. The team’s clear needs at the top of the rotation mean that a reunion can’t be entirely ruled out, but in recent years San Diego has eschewed giving out large paydays to free agent starters in favor of a more creative approach.

Padres Expected To Activate Michael King

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The Padres are expected to reinstate right-hander Michael King from the injured list to start tomorrow’s game versus the Reds, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He’s been out since early Aug. 9 due to knee troubles. That August start stands as King’s only appearance since mid-May, as he’d previously missed more than two months with a nerve issue in his right shoulder.

King hasn’t pitched in a minor league rehab game, though skipper Mike Shildt said in a radio appearance late last week that he’d tossed five innings in a scrimmage setting at the team’s Arizona Complex League facility. That put him on turn to take the ball Tuesday, which would’ve been Nestor Cortes’ spot in the rotation had he not gone down with a biceps strain this past Friday.

Those shoulder and knee injuries have limited King to just 11 starts this season, though he’s been every bit as excellent in that slate of appearances as he was with the Padres in 2024 and with the Yankees’ rotation late in 2023. King has pitched 57 2/3 frames on the season and carries a terrific 2.81 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate, an 8.1% walk rate, a 38.3% ground-ball rate and 0.94 homers per nine innings. Since moving into a starting role full-time, the former swingman has started 49 games and pitched to a 2.77 ERA. He’s punched out 28.2% of his opponents against an 8.2% walk rate.

King will step back into a San Diego rotation that’s been anchored by offseason signee Nick Pivetta, in terms of both workload and quality. Pivetta’s 164 1/3 innings lead the Friars, and his 2.85 ERA is tops among Padres starters (with the exception of King’s 2.81 in about one-third as many innings). The ultra-durable Dylan Cease has been healthy all season but has continued to struggle to strand runners, leaving him with a 4.71 ERA despite a premium 30% strikeout rate and passable (albeit somewhat elevated) 10% walk rate. Veteran righty Yu Darvish has a 5.75 ERA in his 11 starts, though he’s trimmed that considerably over his past seven trips to the bump (4.11 ERA). Randy Vasquez has kept his ERA under 4.00 despite walking a tightrope with nearly as many walks (9.7%) as strikeouts (12.3%). There’s likely some regression in store for him.

All of that makes getting King back into the mix all the more critical. The Padres added lefties Cortes and JP Sears at the deadline but didn’t deepen their staff overall, given that they sent out starters Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek in the trade that brought catcher Freddy Fermin to Petco Park. Getting King back could be pivotal, particularly since it’ll give him three to four starts to ramp up and get back into form ahead of the Padres’ looming postseason berth.

It’ll also give him a bit more time to build up his case ahead of what’ll be his first trip to the free-agent market. A swift return to form would bode well for the talented righty’s earning power on the open market. If healthy, King should be among the more coveted starting pitchers in free agency this offseason.

King’s return is likely an unwelcome development for the Reds and their fans. Cincinnati sits four games behind the Mets in the National League Wild Card race, tied with the Giants in that regard. A series loss or a sweep at the hands of the Padres could be a backbreaker for their season. From the Padres’ vantage point, winning even two of three would further pad their standing in the Wild Card mix. And, with just a one-game deficit standing between the Friars and the division-leading archrival Dodgers, King could be a pivotal part of a late push for the division.

Padres Place Nestor Cortes On Injured List

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The Padres placed starter Nestor Cortes on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 4, with a biceps strain. San Diego recalled reliever Ron Marinaccio to provide an extra bullpen arm for tonight’s game in Colorado. It might be a one-day MLB stint. Righty Randy Vásquez joined the team at Coors Field and told reporters (including Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune) that he’ll be recalled to start Saturday’s game.

It continues a rough season for Cortes, whom the Friars acquired from the Brewers at the trade deadline. The lefty’s Milwaukee tenure consisted of two starts and eight runs allowed in as many innings. He then suffered a flexor strain that cost him four months. By the time he was ready to return right around the deadline, the Brewers had six or seven better starting pitchers. They traded Cortes to San Diego, who activated him from the IL on August 3.

Things haven’t gone well through six starts. Cortes carries a 5.47 earned run average through 26 1/3 innings. His strikeout, walk and home run rates are all poor. Cortes has managed one strong start, tossing six scoreless innings to beat the Dodgers on August 23. That’s the only time he’s completed six frames with the Padres. He had his worst outing on Wednesday, giving up four homers and six runs without escaping the third inning against Baltimore.

San Diego acquired Cortes and JP Sears at the deadline in an effort to stabilize the back of the rotation. That became increasingly important when they packaged Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek to Kansas City for catcher Freddy Fermin. Neither addition has worked out so far, as Sears has given up nine earned runs in 14 2/3 frames over his first three starts.

The Padres quickly optioned Sears to Triple-A. He apparently has fallen behind Vásquez on the depth chart, as the Friars elected to call up the righty. Sears is scheduled to start tonight in the minors, which would indicate he’s not in the mix to start on Tuesday in what would have been Cortes’ rotation spot. (San Diego relied on a bullpen game the last time they would have needed a fifth starter.) They may be targeting that day for Michael King to return from the injured list. Manager Mike Shildt told 93.7 The Fan that King threw five innings in a scrimmage at the team’s Arizona complex yesterday. Shildt did not commit to a date for the righty’s reinstatement.

Padres Place Michael King On Injured List

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August 15: King spoke to reporters, including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, about his injury today. He says an MRI showed no structural damage and he hopes to return when first eligible.

August 14: The Padres announced that right-hander Michael King has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to left knee inflammation, retroactive to August 11th. Right-hander Randy Vásquez has been recalled in the corresponding move.

The Friars haven’t yet provided any information about King’s injury or how long they expect him to be out of action. His IL placement is a notable development regardless. The Padres just passed the Dodgers to take a one-game lead in the National League West. The two clubs open a three-game series against each other in Los Angeles tomorrow with the division lead on the line. King was scheduled to take the ball in the first game but that will no longer be the case. Perhaps Vásquez will take the ball instead. Dylan Cease, scheduled to start Saturday, could start Friday instead and still be on regular rest.

For King, it continues what has already been an injury-marred season. He landed on the IL in late May due to shoulder inflammation. That injury once seemed fairly innocuous, as King woke up feeling some discomfort after sleeping on his shoulder awkwardly. It was later revealed that he was battling an issue with his thoracic nerve. It took him over two months to return to the big league club.

Once he was healthy enough to get back on the mound, his return to the majors was swift. He made just one rehab start, which was on August 3rd. He tossed 61 pitches over 3 1/3 innings for Triple-A El Paso, allowing six earned runs. The Padres nonetheless activated him from the IL to start Saturday’s big league game. It took him 57 pitches to get through two innings against the Red Sox, allowing two earned runs in the process.

Evidently, some knee inflammation popped up between that start and today. There’s nothing to indicate King is in for an extended absence but it’s still not a great development for the club. King had a tremendous breakout with San Diego last year. He tossed 173 2/3 innings with a 2.95 earned run average, 27.7% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate. His rate stats were fairly similar this year before landing on the IL.

Ideally, the Padres would have that kind of production in their rotation, not only in the regular season but also in the playoffs. Perhaps King can get back on track in a few weeks but this is surely a setback they didn’t want.

They now go into the next few weeks with a rotation consisting of Cease, Yu Darvish, Nestor Cortes, Nick Pivetta and perhaps Vásquez. Guys like JP Sears, Matt Waldron and Kyle Hart are on optional assignment. Pivetta’s having a great year but Cease has a 4.86 ERA over his past ten starts. Darvish and Cortes have both been on the IL for most of the season. Having King back to his 2024 self would have made the group much stronger but he’s back on the shelf. Tomorrow’s game in Los Angeles is the first of 13 in a row without an off-day.

It’s also not a good development for King personally, as he’s an impending free agent. After his tremendous 2024 campaign and in the early parts of this year, he was trending towards being one of the top free agent starters of the 2025-26 offseason, with a good shot at a nine-figure deal. His monthslong summer absence put a cloud of uncertainty around him and put a big dent in his earning power.

Getting back to the majors could have been the first step towards putting him back on track. Almost two months of solid regular season work followed by a few good postseason starts could have erased the memory of that shoulder injury. That could still happen to some degree, but the window is now narrower.

Photo courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Imagn Images

Padres To Activate Michael King On Saturday

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Michael King will make his return from the injured list on Saturday, the Padres informed reporters (including Dennis Lin of The Athletic). San Diego will activate him from the 60-day IL to go opposite Lucas Giolito in the second game of their weekend series against Boston. The Friars already have an opening on the 40-man roster, so unless they make another move tomorrow, they’ll only need to make an active roster move involving a pitcher.

King’s return was expected when the Padres optioned JP Sears on Tuesday. That allowed San Diego to play with a nine-man bullpen for a few days. They’ll drop back to eight when King rejoins Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish and Nestor Cortes in the rotation. The righty reached 61 pitches across 3 1/3 innings in his only Triple-A rehab start. It’s likely manager Mike Shildt will keep him around 75 pitches in his first MLB appearance in almost three months.

The injury began innocuously enough. King was scratched from a scheduled start on May 24 after telling the coaching staff that he felt he slept uncomfortably on his shoulder. He went on the 15-day IL a day later with what the team called inflammation. They later announced that he was battling an issue with his thoracic nerve that was sapping the strength in his shoulder. It ended up costing him two and a half months, though the team stressed that there weren’t any structural concerns.

King’s fastball averaged 92.7 MPH during his Triple-A start. That’s a tick below his MLB season average. That’s probably to be expected after an extended layoff. If King gets back to his pre-injury form, he’ll arguably be San Diego’s best starter. The 30-year-old had turned in a 2.59 earned run average through his first 10 starts. He struck out 28.4% of opposing hitters against a 7.6% walk rate. It was an even better performance than last year’s excellent first season in San Diego: 173 2/3 innings of 2.93 ERA ball with a 27.7% strikeout percentage.

The Padres welcome King back at a time when they occupy the second Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re one game above the Mets and 4.5 clear of the Reds, the top team that is not in playoff position. San Diego trails the Dodgers by just two games in the NL West.

King’s performance down the stretch will also have a significant impact on the upcoming free agent market. He’ll decline his end of a $15MM mutual option, reject a qualifying offer, and hit free agency for the first time. There’s an argument that he’s the second-best starter in the class behind Framber Valdez. That’s dependent on him showing no ill effects from the injury down the stretch and into the postseason.

Padres Option JP Sears

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The Padres announced they’ve optioned JP Sears to Triple-A El Paso. They recalled reliever Sean Reynolds and will go with a nine-man bullpen in the short term. Sears will spend at least 15 days in the minors unless he’s brought up to replace a player going on the injured list.

San Diego acquired Sears alongside Mason Miller in last week’s massive deadline deal. The 29-year-old southpaw made his team debut last night. He allowed five runs in as many innings on 10 hits and a walk against the Diamondbacks. Sears took the loss in a 6-2 defeat. He’d carried a 4.95 earned run average over 22 starts with the A’s. Yesterday pushed his ERA to 5.12 across 116 innings. It’s a bottom 10 mark among pitchers to log at least 100 frames. Sears had the highest home run rate among that group, offsetting his nearly league average 20.3% strikeout rate and solid 6% walk percentage.

This is the first time in two and a half years that Sears heads to the minors. He broke camp with the A’s in 2023 and has been in the majors since then. Sears has also avoided the injured list for that entire time. As a result, he’s tied for fifth in MLB with 87 starts since the beginning of the ’23 season. The durability is the big selling point, as his production (4.62 ERA/4.56 SIERA) over that stretch is that of a fifth or sixth starter.

The demotion shouldn’t have any impact on Sears’ service trajectory. He has already surpassed the three-year mark and will qualify for arbitration next winter. He’s under team control for three seasons beyond this one. While he’ll probably be back up at some point this year, it may require an injury elsewhere in the rotation.

San Diego optioned Randy Vásquez over the weekend. They currently have a four-man rotation of Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish and deadline acquisition Nestor Cortes. Darvish and Cortes will get the ball for the next two outings. San Diego is off Thursday and could turn back to Pivetta and Cease on extra rest for their first two games of the weekend series against the Red Sox.

That’d point to the series finale on August 10 as Michael King’s return date. King threw 61 pitches in what is expected to be his final rehab start on Sunday (via the MLB.com injury tracker). He’d be on six days rest for his first MLB appearance since he went on the injured list in late May with a nerve problem in his throwing shoulder.

Padres Activate Yu Darvish

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July 7: San Diego officially reinstated Darvish from the 60-day IL. Lefty Kyle Hart was optioned to Triple-A El Paso to make room on the active roster. To clear the necessary 40-man roster spot, the Friars moved Michael King from the 15-day to the 60-day IL.

It’s a procedural move for King. The 60-day count backdates to his original IL placement, which was retroactive to May 22. He’ll technically be eligible to return two weeks from now. King won’t be ready by then anyhow as he works back from a nerve issue in his throwing shoulder. He has made progress, however, as the team revealed this evening that he’s set to throw off a mound for the first time on Thursday (relayed by Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune). He’ll need to progress through multiple bullpen and live batting practice sessions before he’s ready to embark on a minor league assignment.

July 6: Yu Darvish is set to make his first big league appearance of 2025, as Padres manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that the right-hander will be activated from the 60-day injured list to start Monday’s game with the Diamondbacks.  Darvish developed elbow inflammation in the middle of March, and the veteran’s recovery process ended up costing him over half of the season.

The exact nature of Darvish’s progress was kept somewhat vague.  Shildt has said the team trusted Darvish to essentially manage his own rehab since the pitcher obviously knows the most about how his arm is feeling, and how much ramp-up work is required.  Darvish only pitched in one minor league rehab game back on May 14, though continued soreness in his elbow put his rehab on hold and delayed any plans for a return to the Padres’ rotation.

Acee writes that Darvish tossed two simulated games in the last 12 days, and hit the 64-pitch mark in his most recent outing.  This seems to have checked the final box for Darvish to be activated, and he’ll jump right into the deep end in a big NL West matchup.  San Diego is four games ahead of 44-46 Arizona in the standings, and the Padres would naturally love to further knock their division rivals further out of wild card contention.

It wouldn’t be surprising if it takes a start or two for Darvish to knock the rust off, but in general, getting a frontline pitcher back is naturally a big plus for the Padres.  Even with Darvish out, Michael King to the IL since late May, and Dylan Cease battling through an inconsistent season, San Diego has kept afloat with a makeshift rotation.  Nick Pivetta is enjoying a tremendous debut season in a Padres uniform, and Stephen Kolek and Randy Vasquez have held the fort over their starts, despite some shaky peripheral statistics.  The Padres’ excellent bullpen has also been instrumental in bolstering the pitching staff as a whole.

2025 will mark Darvish’s 20th professional season, counting his seven years in Nippon Professional Baseball and his 12 previous MLB campaigns.  Darvish turns 39 next month but appears to still have plenty left in the tank, as evidenced by the 3.31 ERA he posted over 81 2/3 frames for the Padres last season (and his 1.98 ERA in 13 2/3 playoff innings).  As Acee notes, Darvish has been bothered by elbow problems throughout his time in San Diego, and both the pitcher and the team are focused on having him healthy and ready for the playoff stretch and throughout October.

Michael King Unlikely To Return Prior To All-Star Break

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TODAY: King addressed reporters (including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune) about his status, and said that he is “very confident that I will pitch by the end of the year.”  This framing isn’t exactly a relief to Padres fans since there seemingly hadn’t been any concern that King’s season could be in jeopardy, yet the righty painted a reasonably positive view about the progress that he has made to date.

“I’ve had days where I’ve been really, really frustrated with it and been really sore and felt like I didn’t get much activity that day,” King said.  “And then I’ll wake up the next day and all of a sudden [it’s] like, ’Oh my God, I feel like I can pitch in a game right now.’  So it’s taking it step by step and knowing that [the nerve] can fire when it fires, but obviously it’s that annoying process.  I’ve got a ton of confidence that what we’re doing is the correct thing to do, and I’ve felt my body progress in great ways.”

JUNE 19: The Padres have been without right-hander Michael King for nearly a month now due to a pinched nerve in his shoulder, and it doesn’t sound as though he’ll be rejoining the team anytime soon. Asked yesterday by MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell whether King would be out through the All-Star break, manager Mike Shildt replied, “I think that’s pretty accurate” before declining to put a specific target date on the star right-hander’s return.

It’s a brutal injury for all parties involved. King is a free agent at season’s end and appeared to have a chance at cashing in on a nine-figure contract in free agency after a dominant run dating back to his late-2023 move to the rotation when he was still with the Yankees. An absence of this length owing to a fairly uncommon shoulder issue does him no favors in that regard. From the team’s perspective, he’s one of their top rotation options — if not the top rotation option — and there’s minimal depth to replace him.

[Related: 2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings]

King, 30, opened the 2025 season on a tear. In his first 10 starts, he logged a 2.59 ERA with a gaudy 28.4% strikeout rate, a sharp 7.6% walk rate and a 38.3% grounder rate. He averaged less than a homer per nine innings pitched, held opponents to a pedestrian 88 mph average exit velocity and had tossed his first career shutout against the Rockies on April 13. Add all of that onto to King’s 2024 season and his huge finish to the 2023 campaign, and the former 12th-round pick (Marlins, 2016) boasts an electric 2.72 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate in 267 2/3 innings since his full-time move to rotation work.

With King joining Joe Musgrove (2024 Tommy John surgery) and Yu Darvish (elbow inflammation) on the injured list, the Friars have leaned on Dylan Cease and Nick Pivetta atop their rotation. Cease has had two brutal outings — including his most recent one — that have skewed his ERA, but he had an 11-start run of 3.39 ERA ball with a 30.6% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate between his two meltdowns. Pivetta, who signed a creative four-year deal after lingering in free agency for much of the winter, has proven to be a godsend. He’s cooled a bit after racing out to a 2.01 ERA through his first seven starts but still sports a tidy 3.40 mark on the season, pairing that with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate.

The rest of San Diego’s staff hasn’t been nearly as impressive. Righties Randy Vásquez and Stephen Kolek have both posted mid-3.00 ERA marks but done so with poor strikeout and walk rates (and a poor home run rate, in Vásquez’s case), creating some justifiable skepticism about their ability to sustain their respective marks of 3.70 and 3.59.

Twenty-five-year-old Ryan Bergert has looked strong through his first three career starts and pitched well in nine Triple-A starts, too. His track record is limited, however; he posted a 4.78 ERA in 98 Double-A frames a year ago and has never reached even 110 innings in a professional season. Offseason signee Kyle Hart has been clobbered for a 6.66 ERA in his return from a big year in the Korea Baseball Organization. Knuckleballer Matt Waldron ate up 146 2/3 innings with a 4.91 ERA last year but opened the 2025 season on the injured list due to an oblique strain. He was reinstated from the 60-day IL earlier this month and optioned to Triple-A where he’s made three straight effective starts. He’s likely the next man up if the Padres need another starter.

The emergence of Bergert and the manner in which Kolek has stepped up — even if he’s been shaky since two brilliant starts to begin his season — have left the Padres in a better spot than most would’ve expected upon hearing that both King and Darvish would face protracted absences in 2025. Still, with multiple rotation arms sporting ERAs that don’t appear all that sustainable, King’s nebulous injury status is all the more problematic for San Diego.

This level of uncertainty seemed hard to imagine when King was first placed on the injured list. Shildt said at the time that the right-hander “felt like he slept on [his shoulder] wrong” at that time. It’s clear now that there was something more significant at play. King is doing some occasional light throwing work, but it sounds as though he’ll need to build through a full throwing progression and a rehab stint of some note before he’s back on the big league radar. For a Padres team that’s patching over its rotation with a series of relative unknowns and a pitcher who was eyeing a major contract in free agency, that seemingly innocuous start to his absence has snowballed in a most unwelcome manner.

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