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Rays Interested In Jesus Aguilar

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The Rays, continuing their search for a right-handed slugger, have shown interest in Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar, Mark Feinsand and Juan Toribio of MLB.com report. Tampa Bay was previously connected to other notable right-handed hitters in the Rangers’ Hunter Pence and the Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos (links: 1, 2).

Unlike Texas and Detroit, Milwaukee doesn’t look like a potential seller going into the July 31 trade deadline. The Brewers are a game back of wild-card position and two behind the first-place Cubs in the National League Central. As such, it’s far from a sure thing the Brewers will trade Aguilar. If they do, it would have to benefit them immediately, per Feinsand and Toribio.

Considering Aguilar hasn’t been the integral piece of the Brewers’ roster that he was during a division-winning 2018, he does look more expendable now than he did at the outset of the season. Aguilar slashed .274/.352/.539 with 35 home runs over 566 plate appearances last year to serve as one of the majors’ fiercest sluggers. That production now looks like a distant memory.

So far this season, Aguilar has hit a meek .230/.328/.385 with eight HRs and a massive drop in ISO (from .264 to .155). The 29-year-old has raked in July (.342/.395/.684 in 43 PA), but it’s the sole month in which Aguilar has registered above-average production at the plate. He and the lefty-swinging Eric Thames, who’s having a much better season, have been platooning at first for the Brew Crew.

For all the faults in Aguilar’s bottom-line production, there are reasons for hope. For one, he remains something of a Statcast favorite. There’s a wide chasm between Aguilar’s weighted-on base average (.312) and expected wOBA (.351). He ranks in the league’s 72nd percentile in xwOBA and checks in similarly well in expected slugging percentage (65th) and exit velocity (66th). And contrary to many other power hitters, Aguilar’s not overly prone to striking out. He has fanned a reasonable 22.9 percent of the time (with a better-than-average 12.3 percent walk rate), posted a decent 11.3 percent swinging-strike rate and chased out-of-zone pitches less than most hitters.

Should the Brewers part with Aguilar, an acquiring team would be landing a player who’s cheap now and under control for a while. Aguilar, currently on a near-minimum salary, is slated to take his first of three potential arbitration trips during the upcoming offseason.

Brewers To Place Brandon Woodruff On 10-Day IL Due To Oblique Injury

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TODAY: Skipper Craig Counsell says the organization anticipates about a six-week absence, as Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel was among those to cover on Twitter. More will be known after the club learns the results of a full examination and MRi today.

YESTERDAY: The Brewers are placing Brandon Woodruff on the 10-day injured list after the right-hander suffered a left oblique injury during today’s game.  (Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel was among those to report the news.)  Woodruff was two pitches into the fourth inning of today’s start against Arizona when he suffered the injury, and left the game after a visit from the team trainer.

An MRI is scheduled for Monday to determine the extent of the injury, though the best-case scenario is at least a couple of weeks on the IL.  Depending on the severity, many oblique injuries usually require a month or more of recovery time, so the Brewers could potentially be without arguably their best starting pitcher for much (or all) of the pennant race.

Woodruff emerged as both a starter and a multi-inning bullpen weapon for the Brewers down the stretch and into the postseason last year, and earned enough trust from Milwaukee brass to begin the season in the rotation.  That decision proved to be a great one, as Woodruff ended up earning a spot on the NL All-Star team.  Including today’s abbreviated outing against the D’Backs, Woodruff has posted a 3.75 ERA, 10.4 K/9 and only a 2.22 K/BB rate over 117 2/3 innings in 2019.  As per Statcast numbers, he has been one of the league’s best pitchers at limiting exit velocity and hard-hit contract, holding opposing batters to a .286 xwOBA.

Woodruff has been a stabilizing force within a Brewers rotation that has generally delivered middle-of-the-pack numbers this year.  Among the most frustrating parts of Woodruff’s injury was that Milwaukee’s starters were beginning to show signs of rounding into form as a whole, as Gio Gonzalez was back from an IL stint and Chase Anderson has quietly re-established himself as a solid starter after beginning the season in the bullpen.  Zach Davies has also continued to pitch well in terms of bottom-line results, posting a 2.79 ERA despite some questionable advanced metrics.  In terms of a short-term replacement for Woodruff, Adrian Houser is likely the top choice to pick up starts in Woodruff’s place, though a pair of upcoming off-days on the schedule means that a fifth starter likely won’t be needed until sometime next week.

Today’s news will only intensify the Brewers’ search for pitching at the trade deadline, as the team had already been linked to such names as Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard on the starter front, and the Giants’ Will Smith as a potential bullpen upgrade.  Despite some unimpressive play in recent weeks, the Brewers are still in possession of an NL wild card berth, and are two games behind the Cubs for first place in the NL Central.  GM David Stearns said earlier this week that his club was planning to be deadline buyers, though left the door to perhaps standing pat (or at least not making any major splashes) unless the Brewers started to string together some wins.  Today’s win over the D’Backs gave Milwaukee five victories in its last six games.

Brewers Activate Gio Gonzalez

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The Brewers announced the activation of left-hander Gio Gonzalez, who will start in Arizona on Saturday. The Brew Crew optioned righty Burch Smith to Triple-A San Antonio in a corresponding move.

Gonzalez is returning after missing almost two months because of a dead arm. Through May 27, the day Gonzalez made his most recent start, the 33-year-old logged a 3.19 ERA/3.25 FIP with 7.55 K/9, 2.61 BB/9 and a 45.5 percent groundball rate in 31 innings. Considering Gonzalez was stuck in free agency until late March, when he joined the Yankees on a minor league deal, and didn’t sign with Milwaukee until the end of April, the Brewers couldn’t have asked for much more from the ex-Athletic and National over his first six starts.

If Gonzalez proves to be close to as effective upon his return as he was before landing on the shelf, he could be a key midseason reinforcement for the Brewers. The defending NL Central champions have struggled of late and are now outside the playoff picture, albeit by just half a game, in part because their pitching staff has been a letdown. But getting back Gonzalez could improve both the Brewers’ rotation and their bullpen. Right-hander Adrian Houser, whom the Brewers moved from their bullpen to their rotation after Gonzalez went down, is now back in a relief role. Houser hasn’t performed well as a starter this year, but he has been superb as a reliever.

Drew Smyly Elects Free Agency

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5:29pm: The Phillies have interest in Smyly, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury (Twitter link).

1:10pm: Veteran left-hander Drew Smyly has opted out of his minor league contract with the Brewers, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (on Twitter). Smyly had signed a minor league pact with Milwaukee back on July 1 after being cut loose from the Rangers.

Smyly made three starts with Milwaukee’s top affiliate in San Antonio, where he allowed seven runs on 10 hits (two homers) and three walks with 18 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings of work. It’s a small but slightly more encouraging showing than he had with Texas earlier in the year. Smyly, pitching in the big leagues for the first time since 2017 Tommy John surgery, was tattooed for an 8.42 ERA in 51 1/3 innings as a Ranger. While he averaged better than a strikeout per inning there, Smyly also walked 34 batters (6.0 BB/9) and served up a staggering 19 home runs (3.33 HR/9).

Prior to undergoing surgery, Smyly displayed a knack for missing bats and strong control skills, but home runs have long been an issue for him. He’s always been an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and the league-wide uptick in home runs hasn’t done him any favors in 2019. Smyly’s average fastball velocity is back to its career norm, and he’s avoided any trips to the injured list thus far, so it seems as though he’s back to full strength following that surgery. He’ll head back to the open market in search of a new opportunity with a club that has its eyes on some affordable rotation depth; any team that signs Smyly would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent in the Majors.

David Stearns Discusses Brewers’ Deadline Approach

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Milwaukee laid waste to Atlanta in a 13-1 rout Tuesday, but the Brewers entered the game amid a terrible stretch that could help prevent them from earning their second straight playoff berth. The reigning NL Central champion Brewers have led the division for a large portion of the year, but they’ve won just 11 of 30 since sitting a season-best 10 games over .500 on June 9. They’re now a mediocre 49-47 and looking up at the Cubs in their division. Despite their recent downturn, all hope isn’t lost for the Brewers, who are still 2 1/2 games behind Chicago and only a half-game back of a wild-card spot.

With the July 31 trade deadline coming up, Brewers general manager David Stearns discussed his plans for the next couple weeks with Adam McCalvy of MLB.com and other reporters Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, Stearns revealed it’s “our preference” to acquire outside help and suggested it’s likely to happen. But Stearns didn’t fully commit to bolstering his roster, noting Milwaukee’s current players will decide whether it happens with how they perform on the field. The Brewers “have not played good baseball” of late, stated Stearns, who admitted the club’s “fortunate” to be within striking distance of a playoff spot despite its lengthy stretch of poor play.

If the Brewers do persuade Stearns into making any aggressive moves this month, their pitching staff seems likely to be a major area of focus. The club has been connected to a few of the best potentially on-the-move starters – the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler (links here) and the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner (link) – as well as Giants closer and ex-Brewer Will Smith in the rumor mill. It stands to reason some of the majors’ other prominent trade candidates have also landed on the Brewers’ radar.

Milwaukee’s rotation entered Tuesday 19th in ERA and a similarly uninspiring 17th in FIP, owing to subpar performances from an array of starters. Jhoulys Chacin has fallen flat after a strong 2018, while Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes and Jimmy Nelson couldn’t stick in the Brewers’ rotation after offering disappointing numbers earlier in the season. The struggles of Peralta, Burnes and Nelson have opened the door for Adrian Houser, who had been working as a reliever. Houser’s three starts this month haven’t gone well, as he has allowed 12 earned runs on 21 hits with a 10:5 K:BB ratio in 15 innings.

In more encouraging news, Zach Davies has managed a 2.89 ERA – albeit with less-than-dazzling peripherals – while the 26-year-old Brandon Woodruff looks as if he’s breaking out. Chase Anderson has pitched fine in 13 starts (4.23 ERA/4.10 FIP), though he hasn’t even averaged five frames per outing. Gio Gonzalez notched a 3.19 ERA/3.24 FIP in a six-start, 31-inning span from his late-April signing through the end of May. However, Gonzalez hasn’t taken the mound for the Brewers since then because of a dead arm. Gonzalez recently began a rehab assignment, though, perhaps giving the Brewers hope that the long-competent lefty could help stabilize their rotation down the stretch.

The Brewers’ bullpen, meanwhile, isn’t quite the force it was a year ago. Josh Hader has been outstanding again, as was Houser before the Brewers shifted him to their rotation. Peralta has recorded much better production in relief than he did as a starter. Meanwhile, unlike last year, Jeremy Jeffress has been more decent than dominant in 2019. That group aside, the Brewers haven’t received particularly impressive numbers from any other relievers they’ve used extensively this year. Losing Corey Knebel to Tommy John surgery in late March was a brutal blow to take just as the season was getting underway. His lack of availability is one of the reasons the Brewers may be in the market for late-game help this month.

Brewers Place Corbin Burnes On IL

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  • The Brewers placed right-hander Corbin Burnes on the injured list Monday because of shoulder irritation, recalling fellow righty Burch Smith from Triple-A San Antonio to take his place. The club put Burnes on the shelf in the wake of his most recent blowup Sunday, when he allowed four earned runs on four straight hits and failed to retire a batter in a loss to the Giants. Even though the 24-year-old Burnes has struck out just better than 13 batters per nine innings this season, struggles preventing home have led to an ineffectual 9.00 ERA/6.12 FIP across 46 frames. Burnes didn’t give up any homers Sunday, but he has allowed HRs on an astounding 39 percent of fly balls this season.

Brewers, Giants Have Discussed Will Smith Trade

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The Brewers and Giants have been in talks about a potential trade that would send lefty Will Smith from San Francisco back to Milwaukee, reports Robert Murray of The Athletic (subscription required). The Giants are particularly interested in second base prospect Mauricio Dubon, per Murray, though he specifies that no deal is close between the two clubs.

It’s not clear that Milwaukee would have any actual interest in dealing Dubon, particularly for a rental. As a player who’s already made his MLB debut after enjoying success in both Double-A and Triple-A, Dubon would be a costly price to pay in exchange for a half-season of a player — even an elite reliever. Dubon is widely considered to be among the Brewers’ five best prospects and boasts a career .300/.335/.479 batting line in 762 plate appearances at Triple-A. That’s not to say such a swap is out of the realm of possibility, however, particularly given how steep the demand for Smith will be. To this point, Smith has been linked to the Cardinals, Dodgers, Rays and Twins, among others. Beyond that, the Giants will have multiple relievers available (Sam Dyson, Tony Watson and perhaps Reyes Moronta), which creates myriad trade scenarios.

Smith is not only the top rental reliever on the market, he’s legitimately been one of the best relievers on the planet in 2019 (while earning an affordable $4.25MM). In 37 1/3 innings for the Giants this season, the southpaw has pitched to an excellent 2.17 ERA with 13.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9 and a 45.3 percent ground-ball rate. The 30-year-old Smith has struck out a career-high 39.4 percent of the hitters he’s faced in 2019 while demonstrating his best command of the strike zone since 2013.

The Brewers, meanwhile, have seen one of their greatest weapons in 2018 dwindle in 2019 with the decline of their relief corps. Josh Hader leads the team in saves and is posting historic strikeout numbers for a second straight season (50.3 percent), but he’s already allowed as many home runs (nine) in 45 innings as he did last year in 81 1/3 frames. Corey Knebel had Tommy John surgery and won’t pitch in 2019. Jeremy Jeffress was terrific through mid-June, but he missed a couple of weeks early due to shoulder fatigue and has hit a rough patch (7.15 ERA) over the past month.

Smith is far from the Brewers’ only option as they pursue bullpen trades — as is evident when perusing MLBTR’s list of the market’s top 60 trade candidates — but he’s also a known commodity in Milwaukee. The Brewers traded Smith to the Giants prior to the 2016 non-waiver trade deadline in a deal that netted them righty Phil Bickford and catcher Andrew Susac. Bickford, a former first-round pick, has yet to progress beyond Class-A Advanced. Susac was traded to the Orioles for cash after being designated for assignment in February 2018.

Brewers Select Jay Jackson, Option Mauricio Dubon

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The Brewers have selected the contract of righty Jay Jackson from Triple-A San Antonio and optioned Mauricio Dubon to AAA, the team reports.

Jackson, 31, appeared poised for a middle-inning role after a dominant 2015 season for San Diego’s AAA-affiliate, but opted instead to pitch in Japan. He excelled there, too, posting back-to-back seasons of sub 2.03 ERAs for the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Central League.

In 35 2/3 innings for San Antonio this year, Jackson’s offered up a commanding 1.01 ERA/1.66 FIP on the back of unassailable peripherals marks: a 12.62 K/9 against just 2.02 BB/9, and not a single homer allowed in a league that’s seen its homer rate jump by as astounding 50.5% this season. The righty should insert himself into a high-leverage role straight away for a team that’s been surprisingly short on reliable late-inning options in ’19. Josh Hader has again been dominant, if homer-prone, but the rest of the club’s complement of ’pen arms – aside from perhaps Jeremy Jeffress – have been mediocre-to-shaky thus far in the campaign.

Dubon, acquired with Travis Shaw in the lopsided deal that sent reliever Tyler Thornburg to Boston, missed much of last season with a torn ACL. He’s rebounded nicely in ’19, though a .307/.343/.491 slash is good for only a 100 wRC+ in the unhinged offensive environment of the PCL.

Brewers Outright Deolis Guerra To Triple-A

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  • Brewers right-hander Deolis Guerra cleared waivers and was assigned outright to Triple-A San Antonio, per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter link). The 30-year-old Guerra made just one appearance with the Brewers after having his contract selected, wherein he was hammered for four runs in two-thirds of an inning. Ugly as that outing was, Guerra has been excellent in an extraordinarily hitter-friendly Triple-A environment in 2019: 2.61 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9 in 41 1/3 innings of relief. It seems the well-traveled Guerra will remain in the organization as a depth piece; he had the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, but there’s no indication he plans to do so.

Brewers Sign Shelby Miller To Minors Deal

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The Brewers have signed right-hander Shelby Miller to a minor league contract, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).

After being released by the Rangers last week, Miller will now return to the National League as he tries to once again revive his career.  Miller posted an 8.59 ERA over 44 innings for Texas, recording almost as many walks (29) as strikeouts (30), and eventually losing his rotation job due to his inability to his ongoing struggles.

The 44 innings represents the most Miller has pitched in the last two seasons, as Tommy John surgery and a separate set of elbow problems limited the right-hander to just 38 innings total in 2017-18.  Before those two injury-ravaged seasons and his poor 2016 debut year with the Diamondbacks, Miller was considered one of the more promising young arms in baseball, coming off three impressive years with the Braves and Cardinals from 2013-15.

Miller is still just 28 years old and still averages close to 95mph on his fastball, making him a risk worth taking for the Brewers on a flier of a minor league deal.  Milwaukee will owe Miller only the prorated minimum salary if he reaches the club’s MLB roster, as the Rangers are on the hook for the remainder of the one-year contract he signed last winter ($2MM in guaranteed salary, and $400K in achieved incentives).

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