NL Central Notes: Wieters, A’s, Cards, Arenado, Akiyama, Brewers
The Cardinals and Athletics were first linked to Matt Wieters during the Winter Meetings, and a month after those initial reports, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that St. Louis and Oakland continue to have interest in the veteran backstop. Wieters served as the Cards’ backup catcher last season, hitting .214/.268/.435 with 11 home runs over 183 plate appearances and 67 games — perhaps more playing time than was expected, given that workhorse Yadier Molina was limited to 113 games due to thumb injuries. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes (Twitter link) that the Cardinals have an offer out to Wieters and are hopeful of a reunion, to the point that a locker has been kept open for Wieters. The A’s would also be looking to use Wieters as a backup catcher behind promising youngster Sean Murphy, though Wieters could potentially have a larger role if Murphy were to struggle in his first full MLB season.
More from the NL Central…
- Nolan Arenado has been frequently mentioned as a trade possibility for the Cardinals, though Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch feels a potential deal with the Rockies “probably won’t” happen. Roadblocks include Arenado’s contract, which is both expensive and contains an opt-out clause after the 2021 season. While Arenado is a clear upgrade over virtually any other third baseman in the game and Matt Carpenter is coming off a rough 2019 campaign, Carpenter’s presence as the Cards’ in-house third base option further complicates matters since Carpenter is unlikely to carry much trade value. In terms of moving him to another position, Paul Goldschmidt has first base covered, and Frederickson writes that “the team has thoroughly dismissed the notion of Carpenter spending time in the outfield again.”
- The Reds‘ offseason plans put an early priority on Shogo Akiyama, and the outfielder told reporters (including The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans) that Cincinnati was the first team to make him a contract offer. “I was very inspired by their passion for how much they really wanted me. I wanted to respond to that. That’s why I chose the Reds,” Akiyama said via an interpreter. Several other teams had interest in Akiyama’s services, though the Reds came out on top with a three-year, $21MM deal with the center fielder. Akiyama becomes the first Japanese player in Reds history, and Rosecrans’ piece explores how the team has looked to improve its Asian scouting practices in recent years, as former Reds GM Walt Jocketty preferred to focus Cincinnati’s international signing efforts towards Cuban players (i.e. Raisel Iglesias, Aroldis Chapman).
- With Jedd Gyorko now in the fold, Brewers GM David Stearns told reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that he is “comfortable” with the club’s remodeled infield. “We feel like we have a number of players who fit in a variety of different ways, and that’s really helpful,” Stearns said. “It gives us options. It gives us depth. It allows us to see not only how the rest of the offseason unfolds, but how the first part of the season unfolds, in terms of how we want to structure a roster, how we want to play different players.” Many of the Brewers’ infield pickups (Gyorko, Luis Urias, Eric Sogard, Ryon Healy) have multi-position capability, while first base has also been addressed with Justin Smoak as the top complement to Ryan Braun, who is slated for time at both first base and in the outfield.
MLBTR Poll: Josh Hader’s Future
Friday has been an arbitration bonanza across Major League Baseball. Teams have either agreed to deals to avoid the process with their arbitration-eligible players, or they’re at risk of having to go to hearings because they couldn’t find common ground. As of now, standout Brewers reliever Josh Hader is among those whose asking price outpaces what his team’s willing to pay. The left-handed Hader requested $6.4MM in 2020, his first of four arb-eligible seasons, while the Brewers submitted a $4.1MM offer.
Considering what he has brought to the table since he debuted in 2017, Hader’s desired salary looks plenty fair. Dating back to his first season, the hard-throwing Hader has posted a 2.42 ERA/2.74 FIP with a ridiculous 15.35 K/9 against 3.17 BB/9. And Hader has proven himself as more than a three-out weapon, as he ranked 13th among all relievers in frames (204 2/3) during his three-season stretch of brilliance. He has also made it clear he can dominate as a setup man or a closer. Just last season, Hader racked up 37 saves on 44 attempts.
Even though they’re a small-market, low-spending club, there’s no obvious reason for the Brewers to trade Hader. They’re a team coming off back-to-back playoff seasons, Hader’s one of their most valuable players, and he’ll be easily affordable in 2020 no matter how his current financial situation pans out. With that said, the latter reason could influence the Brewers to go in another direction if they receive an enticing enough offer. As of Dec. 1, Milwaukee was willing to listen to proposals for Hader, who has drawn interest from such big-market teams as the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers this winter. Surely, if Milwaukee’s truly willing to let Hader go, other playoff-caliber clubs and hopeful contenders would enter the mix. That’s all the more true considering the dearth of high-end relievers left in free agency.
For the time being, Hader remains a member of the Brewers, who could at least retain him and decide on his long-term future around July’s trade deadline. But do you expect the club to move on from him before the upcoming season?
(Poll link for app users)
Will Brewers trade Josh Hader this offseason?
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No 64% (6,811)
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Yes 36% (3,888)
Total votes: 10,699
2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers
MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.
After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)
We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:
- George Springer, Astros: $22.5MM versus $17.5MM (Jeff Passan of ESPN.com, via Twitter)
- J.T. Realmuto, Phillies: $12.4MM versus $10MM (Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly, via Twitter)
- Trevor Story, Rockies: $11.5MM versus $10.75MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Joc Pederson, Dodgers: $9.5MM versus $7.75MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox: $8.975MM versus $8.3MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks: $6.95MM versus $6.6MM (Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, via Twitter)
- Shane Greene, Braves: $6.75MM versus $6.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Josh Hader, Brewers: $6.4MM versus $4.1MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers: $5.8MM versus $5.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Hector Neris, Phillies: $5.2MM versus $4.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Max Muncy, Dodgers: $4.675MM versus $4MM (Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, via Twitter)
- Jose Berrios, Twins: $4.4MM versus $4.025MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox: $4.15MM versus $3.4MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Archie Bradley, Diamondbacks: $4.1MM versus $3.625MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Pedro Baez, Dodgers: $4.0MM versus $3.5MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League
Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.
We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
- Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
- The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
- The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
- Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
- The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
- Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
- The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
- Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
- Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
- The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
- Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.
Earlier Settlements
Brewers Re-Sign Tuffy Gosewisch To Minors Contract
The Brewers have re-signed catcher Tuffy Gosewisch, the team announced via Twitter. Gosewisch will return on a minor league contract that contains an invitation to Milwaukee’s Major League Spring Training camp.
Gosewisch joined the organization on a minors deal last winter and hit .205/.299/.308 over 134 plate appearances for Triple-A San Antonio. In all likelihood, Gosewisch will continue to serve in a similar veteran depth role this year, providing backup behind Omar Narvaez and Manny Pina on the big league roster.
The 36-year-old Gosewisch last played in the majors in 2017, appearing in 11 games with Seattle. Over 447 PA with the Diamondbacks and Mariners from 2013-17, Gosewisch has a .190/.228/.271 career slash line. After being released by the M’s after the 2017 campaign, Gosewisch spent the 2018 season with the Nationals’ Triple-A club.
Brewers Sign Logan Morrison
The Brewers have signed veteran outfielder/first baseman Logan Morrison to a minor league contract, as per reporter Robert Murray (Twitter links). The team has officially announced the move.
Morrison only appeared in 29 games last season, the fewest of his ten-year Major League career. He didn’t sign on with a team until April since he was recovering from hip surgery, eventually landing with the Yankees on a minors contract. Morrison requested his release in July when it became apparent that New York didn’t have any immediate plans for him at the MLB level, and Morrison then signed on with the Phillies, hitting only .200/.263/.400 over 38 plate appearances.
While neither the 2018 campaign nor last year went well for Morrison at the MLB level, he did mash in Triple-A ball in 2019. The 32-year-old posted a .308/.369/.640 line with 18 homers across 233 PA at the minors’ top level. He’s also not that far removed from a career-best showing in 2017, during which he batted .246/.353/.516 with 38 HRs in 601 trips to the plate as a member of the Rays.
In an ideal world for the Brewers, Morrison will revisit his Tampa Bay form. That seems unlikely, but as a member of an organization whose leading first base options either weren’t that impressive in 2019 (Justin Smoak, Ryon Healy) or don’t carry much experience at the position (Ryan Braun), perhaps Morrison will have a real chance to earn a spot.
Latest NL Central Chatter
It has been a fairly quiet winter for the Cardinals, who are looking to defend a triumphant return to the top of the NL Central heap. In the latest edition of the Best Podcast In Baseball (audio link), Derrick Goold and St. Louis Post-Dispatch colleague Ben Frederickson examine the question whether the organization can still plug a big new bat into its lineup. There’s ongoing contact with Marcell Ozuna and interest in Nolan Arenado, but it’s still largely unclear whether either player — or some alternative — will end up with the Redbirds in 2020.
More from the NL Central:
- The Reds are surely still contemplating additions even after inking Shogo Akiyama and making other roster upgrades. But GM Nick Krall suggests the outfield won’t be the focal point, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports on Twitter. With Akiyama installed up the middle, the Reds now have loads of options for finishing their roster, including potentially moving existing outfielders in various scenarios. The team will adopt an “opportunistic” stance with regard to free agent outfielders, Krall says. Further improvement could happen, it seems, but only if a compelling value proposition arises.
- There has been a lot of turnover for the Brewers this winter, though it seems fair to say the approach has been one of seeking incremental, cost-efficient improvement. Certainly, there hasn’t been a marquee addition. The organization may or may not have something bigger up its sleeve, but it likely isn’t done making moves. GM David Stearns told reporters yesterday he’d be “surprised” if he isn’t able to make further roster tweaks, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (Twitter links). The top Milwaukee baseball decisionmaker also indicated that he thinks it likelier the team will make its next strike via trade than through a free agent market that has already been drained of many of its best assets.
- The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma (subscription link) provide an update on the not-yet-updated Cubs roster. Perhaps unsurprisingly … well, there’s really not much new to report. The club remains disappointed in the level of demand they’ve found for top potential trade chips Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras, per the reporting duo, which says that rivals feel the Chicago org has placed “sky-high asking prices.” Internally, the front office simply does not and has not ever intended to move those high-grade players “for anything less than a massive haul.” Under the circumstances, it’s not surprising to see ongoing stasis. The trouble is that the Cubs roster — which is examined in full in the link — doesn’t appear especially likely to make strides without new additions.
Brewers Extend Craig Counsell
The Brewers have announced a new contract with manager Craig Counsell, as first reported by Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s said to take the skipper through the 2023 season.
Counsell, 49, was already under contract through the 2020 campaign under the extension he reached in the fall of 2016. He was originally hired in the midst of the 2015 season, replacing the fired Ron Roenicke.
While he predates GM David Stearns, the two have seemingly worked together seamlessly in Milwaukee. Since a losing 2016 season, the organization has turned in three consecutive winners and two-straight postseason appearances.
The Brewers narrowly won the NL Central in 2018 and grabbed a Wild Card in the just-completed campaign. While the club has had some disappointment in the postseason — falling short in seven games against the Dodgers in the 2018 NLCS and then faltering late in the 2019 Wild Card game to the eventual World Series champion Nationals — that’s the fate of all but one team every season.
It’s inarguable that the Stearns-Counsell combination has been a successful one thus far. The latter has now been voted the runner-up in the National League Manager of the Year race in consecutive seasons.
Despite the good results, there’ll be loads of new faces in uniform when camp opens next month. The Brewers model under Stearns has been to swap out parts as needed to ensure cost-efficiency. But this winter has seen more turnover than before and left the club with a mix-and-match roster that’ll require rather active day-to-day management during the season. It’ll be Counsell’s job not only to meld the new pieces together in the clubhouse, but deploy them in the most advantageous manner in 2020.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Brewers To Sign Justin Smoak
9:38am: Smoak will earn $4MM in 2020 and has a $1MM buyout on a $5.5MM option for the 2021 season, Passan tweets.
9:27am: The two sides are in agreement on a one-year, $5MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. There’s also a club option for the 2021 season, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The deal is pending a physical.
9:09am: The Brewers are closing in on a contract with free agent first baseman Justin Smoak, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Smoak is represented by the Bledsoe Agency.
This is the latest in a string of short-term acquisitions for the Milwaukee organization, which has almost completely turned over its infield over the past six weeks. The club has installed Eric Sogard and Luis Urias in the middle infield mix while picking up Ryon Healy and now Smoak to help cover the corners. Keston Hiura, of course, will factor prominently into the mix as well after impressing with the bat in his rookie season.
Beyond that, president of baseball ops David Stearns said after this week’s signing of Avisail Garcia that Ryan Braun will likely see some time at first base in 2020 as well (Twitter link via Andrew Wagner of the Wisconsin State Journal). It’s a layered collection of veterans and young upside hitters, and the precise manner in which playing time will be sorted remains to be determined in Spring Training.
Smoak made a long-awaited break-out at the plate in 2017 and followed that up with a strong ’18 effort. In combination, he slashed .256/.353/.495 with 63 home runs in 1,231 turns with the bat in those campaigns. Unfortunately, he hit the skids a bit in the just-completed season. The switch-hitting 33-year-old is coming off of a .208/.342/.406 effort, but the underlying metrics on his season are far more interesting than his surface-level .208 batting average.
In fact, there’s some evidence to suggest that the Brewers could hit gold with this signing. As explored here at MLBTR back in September, Smoak’s .323 wOBA lagged the .366 xwOBA he registered with Statcast, indicating there could be some positive regression in the batted-ball department. He also drew walks at an exceptionally healthy 15.8% rate while striking out just 21.2% of the time.
As highlighted in that September exploration of his odd season, Smoak chased pitches outside the strike zone less than nearly any hitter in MLB, and he ranked among the game’s best in terms of pitches per plate appearance. He’s an extremely disciplined hitter who should make opposing pitchers work even if he continues to hit for a low batting average. And, supposing Smoak can turn balls in play into base hits at an increased rate — his .223 BABIP was certainly an outlier — he could bounce right back into being a productive hitter.
Milwaukee undeniably lost some key pieces this winter, with Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas departing for four-year deals with the White Sox and Reds, respectively. Eric Thames, meanwhile, was bought out and sent into the free-agent market. Smoak will in many ways replace Thames at a slightly reduced cost — likely bringing better glovework to the table but lesser production against right-handed pitching.
Smoak will come in at $1.5MM less than Thames would’ve earned — a slight savings that exemplifies the Brewers’ risk-averse mentality and focus on the margins when building out a roster. This depth-forward approach both safeguards against injury and allows for slightly reduced workloads that, in theory, lessen the overall risk of injury and keeps their position players fresher. It also leads to a great deal of turnover, which can be frustrating for fans at times but has resulted in three straight winning seasons and two consecutive postseason appearances.
Brewers To Sign Eric Sogard
The Brewers have struck a deal with veteran infielder Eric Sogard, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic ( Twitter links). It’s said to be a one-year, $4.5MM arrangement that includes an option for another campaign.
Sogard returns to Milwaukee after an up-and-down stint with the club from 2017-18. When last he suited up for the Brew Crew, Sogard proved unable to repeat a strong 2017 season in which he walked more than he struck out and delivered his first-ever above-average offensive effort.
After that disappointing turn, Sogard secured a minor-league deal with the Blue Jays. He earned his way up rather quickly and ended up producing an even more interesting season with the bat. Over 442 plate appearances, before and after a mid-season trade to the Rays, Sogard popped 13 home runs and delivered a .290/.353/.457 batting line.
Sogard’s surprising burst obviously coincided with a general power wave. He also benefited in particular from some wall-scraping dingers that he rode out with a much-steepened average launch angle. We examined the topic in the approach to the trade deadline. As it turned out, Sogard hit just three dingers and slugged .404 in his 119 plate appearances with Tampa Bay, so perhaps there’s added cause to wonder whether that will continue.
No doubt the Brewers have a good sense of how much power to anticipate from Sogard. They’re also amply familiar with his other qualities, including an exceptional eye and contact ability. Sogard delivers well-regarded glovework at second base, the ability to line up just about anywhere on the field, and a track record of adding runs with his legs.
The Milwaukee roster has seen quite a lot of change in the infield already this winter. Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, and Hernan Perez all hit the open market. The club has now added Luis Urias, Ryon Healy, and Sogard as at least a partial slate of replacements.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.