NL Notes: Syndergaard, Pollock, Cards, Brewers
Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard will begin an injury rehab assignment Tuesday at the Single A-level, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Syndergaard could return to the majors within five days of that outing, DiComo reports. The Mets placed Syndergaard on the injured list June 16 with a hamstring strain, adding to what has been a surprisingly pedestrian season for the 26-year-old. A front-line starter when he was healthy enough to take the mound from 2015-18, Syndergaard has managed a mediocre-at-best 4.55 ERA in 95 innings this season. However, the flamethrowing Syndergaard’s 2019 peripherals have been more encouraging – albeit not as dominant as they had been in prior years – as he has logged a 3.61 FIP with 8.81 K/9, 2.27 BB/9 and a 47.6 percent groundball rate.
More from the National League…
- Dodgers center fielder A.J. Pollock is hoping to return when the second half of the season kicks off July 12, Pedro Moura of The Athletic tweets. Pollock’s continuing to work back from the right elbow surgery he underwent at the start of May. Before going under the knife, Pollock got off a tough start in 2019 after emigrating from the Diamondbacks to the rival Dodgers over the winter on a four-year, $60MM contract. The 31-year-old has hit just .233/.287/.330 (64 wRC+) in 115 plate appearances this season, but considering his productive track record and the Dodgers’ goal of having capable depth everywhere, they’ll be glad to get Pollock back.
- With Cardinals closer Jordan Hicks in danger of missing the rest of the season because of a torn ulnar collateral ligament, it’s “expected” they’ll use Carlos Martinez as their main game-ending option, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. That would be a new role for the 27-year-old Martinez, who’s working out of the Cardinals’ bullpen this season largely because spring shoulder issues prevented him from ramping up as a starter entering the campaign. Martinez has totaled nine saves during his career, which began in 2013, and has been one of the Cardinals’ most effective relievers this year. He owns a 3.00 ERA/3.38 FIP with 8.4 K/9, 3.00 BB/9 and a Hicks-like 61.5 percent groundball rate in 15 innings.
- Righty Jimmy Nelson, now out of the Brewers’ starting rotation, will “likely” function as a long reliever, Robert Murray of The Athletic writes (subscription link). For now, Nelson’s rotation spot will go to righty reliever Adrian Houser. Nelson’s hopeful he’ll eventually return to Milwaukee’s starting staff, per Murray, who delves into the 30-year-old’s 2019 struggles in his piece. While Nelson was the Brewers’ best starter in 2017, late-season shoulder surgery that year kept him out of major league action until three weeks ago. Nelson then made three subpar starts before the Brewers moved him into a lesser role. Houser, 26, has logged an impressive 2.27 ERA/3.37 FIP with 10.23 K/9 and 3.41 BB/9 this season, but as Murray notes, he won’t work deep into games as a starter. He has averaged just under two innings per appearance across 16 tries this season, having totaled 31 2/3 frames.
Brewers Move Jimmy Nelson To Bullpen
Today, 1:00 pm: Nelson will indeed move to the bullpen, per mlb.com’s Adam McCalvy. The team has not yet announced a replacement.
Friday, 8:00 pm: Brewers right-hander Jimmy Nelson is back in action for the first time since undergoing shoulder surgery in 2017, but it hasn’t been a storybook return to this point. The team’s now discussing whether to keep Nelson in its starting rotation, according to manager Craig Counsell (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).
Nelson came back June 5 and has since endured a difficult three starts, all of which lasted between three and five innings and ended in defeat for the Brewers. The 30-year-old has thus far yielded 13 earned runs on 16 hits and 10 walks (against 13 strikeouts) in 12 frames during his major league comeback. Adding to the bad news, Nelson’s velocity is down across the board since 2017. He has lost around 3 mph on his four-seam fastball, slider and curve.
An emotional Nelson called his early season performance “frustrating, upsetting and disappointing” when speaking with Haudricourt and other reporters, though he’s still confident he’ll return to form. Nelson blossomed into a front-end starter two years ago, when he turned in 175 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA/3.05 FIP ball with 10.21 K/9, 2.46 BB/9 and a 50.3 percent groundball rate. It’s far too soon to say that version of Nelson won’t reappear eventually. However, given that Milwaukee’s pushing for a playoff spot, it may not be in position to keep running Nelson out there.
The problem for the Brewers is that they might not have an obvious solution to replace Nelson. Brandon Woodruff, Zach Davies, Gio Gonzalez and Chase Anderson have been useful members of their rotation, though Gonzalez has been on the injured list for three weeks and may not return until July. Meanwhile, Jhoulys Chacin, Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes and Adrian Houser have each posted unattractive numbers as starters this year. Chacin’s the lone member of the group who remains in the Brewers’ rotation. The rest are in their bullpen.
With the Brewers not getting enough from their starting staff, the reigning NL Central champions have stumbled of late. Although they’ve lost six of seven, the Brewers are 40-35, in wild-card position and only a game behind the Cubs in their division. Still, barring an in-house fix, Milwaukee may have to address its rotation before the July 31 trade deadline in order to clinch another playoff spot.
Corbin Burnes Optioned To Triple-A, Aaron Wilkerson Recalled
The Brewers have optioned Corbin Burnes to Triple-A San Antonio, per MLB Roster Moves. Righty Aaron Wilkerson has been recalled in his stead.
Burnes is among the candidates for most disappointing 2019. After a positive showing in last year’s playoffs, Burnes was ticketed for the rotation this season. Needless to say, things have not gone according to plan for Burnes, who sports a 8.85 ERA. He was sent to the minors after four starts at the beginning of the year in which he surrendered a total 21 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings.
He’s been better since joining the bullpen at the beginning of May, but a couple of blowups ballooned his bullpen ERA to 7.43 in 19 appearances. If we shorten the sample even further, we can get his ERA down to 4.50 in June, and if you squint even harder, a 3.56xFIP starts to look pretty good.
Wilkerson joins the club for the second time this season. The 30-year-old Wilkerson made three appearances in April, surrendering 6 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings.
Brewers Release Brett Lawrie
The Brewers announced today that they have released infielder Brett Lawrie. He had been attempting to work back towards the majors on a minor-league deal after a long layoff.
Lawrie, who’s still just 29 years of age, hasn’t appeared in the majors since 2016 owing to a variety of leg ailments. When he landed with the Milwaukee organization, the idea was to build him back up physically before setting him loose on the ballfield to see what was left in the tank. Though his contract contemplated up to $7MM in earnings, it did not include substantial guarantees.
Milwaukee GM David Stearns explains that things just did not progress as hoped, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports (Twitter links). Though he credited Lawrie for his effort, Stearns says that the former first-round pick was ultimately not able to achieve “benchmarks” that had been agreed upon at the outset. Lawrie did not advance to a point that he was ready for game action, as he was never sent out on assignment with a Brewers affiliate.
Rangers Acquire Jake Petricka
The Rangers have struck a deal with the Brewers for reliever Jake Petricka, per a club announcement. Cash or a player to be named later will go back in return. Robert Murray and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the news (via Twitter).
Petricka, 31, signed a MLB deal with a minor-league split salary. He is optionable this season but was outrighted off of the Milwaukee 40-man roster. The Rangers have assigned Petricka to Triple-A to begin his tenure with the organization.
While he allowed only three earned runs in his eight frames of big-league action with the Brewers, Petricka managed only three strikeouts to go with six walks. He has been much better during his time at Triple-A, where he carries a 1.89 ERA with a 22:4 K/BB ratio over 19 innings.
Who Will Win The NL Central?
The National League Central looked like a three-team race at the beginning of the season, and not much has changed two months into the campaign. The Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals – the most hyped clubs in the division coming into the year – are at the top. After winning the division a year ago, the Brewers are 39-29, a half-game better than the Cubs. The Cardinals are a less impressive 33-33, five games back, though they’re certainly not out of the race. Meanwhile, the Reds and Pirates are eight and nine games behind, respectively. Neither looked likely to challenge for the NL Central at the outset of the season. They haven’t done anything to change anyone’s mind yet.
Led by reigning MVP right fielder Christian Yelich, brilliant free-agent acquisition Yasmani Grandal and offseason re-signing Mike Moustakas, the Brewers boast one of the majors’ most valuable groups of position players. Their pitching hasn’t been as useful, on the other hand, as a rotation that was devoid of an ace entering the season has dealt with ineffectiveness and injuries throughout the year. However, the team still features elite reliever Josh Hader, with Jeremy Jeffress and Adrian Houser among those supporting him.
The Cubs’ position player mix has been even better than the Brewers’ this year, largely because Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and David Bote have each offered strong production. Chicago’s rotation is probably better equipped, too, as Kyle Hendricks, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana and Jon Lester are all proven commodities. Although, Yu Darvish hasn’t rebounded as hoped in his second year as a Cub. Darvish & Co. have handed off to a bullpen that hasn’t been lights-out this year, but it’s about to welcome all-time great closer Craig Kimbrel, whom the Cubs signed to a three-year, $43MM contract last week. Kimbrel would have been a match for the Brewers, making it all the more beneficial for the Cubs that they landed him (on paper, at least).
As for the Cardinals, they’ve fallen short of expectations after trading for ex-Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt, one of the premier position players in recent memory, and signing reliever Andrew Miller in the offseason. Both players have logged somewhat disappointing production to date, though Goldschmidt’s still an imposing presence and Miller has improved after a rocky start. Regardless, neither the Cardinals’ cast of hitters nor their relief corps is their most pressing issue. It’s their rotation, which hasn’t gotten high-end numbers from anyone. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas have gone backward after impressive showings in 2018, while Dakota Hudson‘s peripherals portend trouble. Adam Wainwright‘s much closer to average than ace-like these days (and he’s now on the injured list with a hamstring issue), and nobody has nailed down the fifth spot in the Redbirds’ starting staff.
Considering the talent peppered throughout the Cardinals’ roster, it would be foolhardy to rule them out as potential division winners this season. Furthermore, with the trade deadline still yet to occur, St. Louis or anyone else in the division could put itself over the top with a shrewd acquisition(s) leading up to July 31. For now, though, the edge clearly belongs to the Cubs and the Brewers. FanGraphs currently projects the NL Central to finish in this order: Cubs (91-71), Brewers (87-75), Cardinals (83-79), Reds (78-84), Pirates (75-87). How do you expect it to shake out?
(Poll link for app users)
Who will win the NL Central?
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Brewers 44% (5,171)
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Cubs 32% (3,832)
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Cardinals 11% (1,253)
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Reds 10% (1,130)
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Pirates 4% (500)
Total votes: 11,886
Health Notes: Angels, Gordon, Brewers, M. Kemp, Reds
The Angels appear likely to activate left fielder Justin Upton sometime during their upcoming road trip from June 13-23, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register suggests. Upton, out all season because of a toe injury, began a rehab assignment last Friday. Meanwhile, injured shortstop Andrelton Simmons is “progressing quickly” and may start taking live at-bats soon, per Fletcher. Simmons hasn’t played since May 20 because of a Grade 3 left ankle sprain.
- The Mariners activated second baseman Dee Gordon from the 10-day injured list Tuesday, the team announced. They optioned righty Matt Festa to Triple-A Tacoma in a corresponding move. Gordon’s back after missing 19 games with a right wrist contusion. The 31-year-old trade candidate is off to a .280/.309/.366 start (85 wRC+) with three home runs and 12 steals on 14 attempts across 177 plate appearances.
- Brewers right-hander Jhoulys Chacin is on track to return during their series in San Diego, which runs from June 17-19, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets. Chacin has been on the IL since June 2 with a lower back strain. Before that, he struggled to build on last season’s quality performance, logging 58 innings of 5.74 ERA/5.75 FIP ball with 6.83 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9.
- Mets minor league outfielder Matt Kemp is dealing with lingering effects of a broken rib he suffered in April, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. The Mets placed Kemp on the minor league IL as a result. The 34-year-old Kemp settled for a minors pact with the Mets on May 24, three weeks after Cincinnati released him. Kemp slashed a brutal .200/.210/.283 (23 wRC+) in 62 plate appearances with Cincy and hasn’t been much better as a member of the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse. So far, Kemp has hit .235/.278/.324 (52 wRC+) in 36 tries at the minors’ top level.
- Reds righty reliever Robert Stephenson began a Triple-A rehab stint Tuesday, according to the team. Stephenson went to the IL on May 31 with a cervical strain. Once a well-regarded starting pitching prospect, Stephenson looked as if he was emerging as a credible reliever before his injury. In his first full-time look out of the bullpen, the 26-year-old has notched a 3.96 ERA/2.58 FIP with 12.6 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 across 25 innings.
MLB Draft Signings: 6/7/19
Keeping up with the latest MLB draft signings…
- The Marlins have agreed to an over-slot bonus with second-rounder Nasim Nunez (pick 46), Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio tweets. The high school infielder from Georgia will receive $2.2MM, a fair amount more than the recommended value of his pick ($1,617,400). Nunez had previously committed to Clemson. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com ranked the 19-year-old Nunez as the 51st-best player entering the draft, writing he may be the top defensive shortstop in his class. But whether the 5-foot-9, 155-pound switch hitter will complement his irreproachable glove work with big league-caliber offense is in question.
- Thirty-eighth overall pick T.J. Sikkema has agreed to a deal with the Yankees worth full slot value ($1.95MM), per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Sikkema, a left-hander from Missouri, checked in at No. 57 on MLB.com’s pre-draft list. While Sikkema doesn’t seem to come with a ton of upside, he has a high enough floor to potentially make it as a major league reliever or a back-end starter, Callis and Mayo suggest.
- Brewers second-rounder Antoine Kelly, the 65th pick, has signed for full slot value ($1,025,100), Callis reports. The development of the 19-year-old Kelly – a lefty from Wabash Valley College in Illinois – “will require a ton of patience and he ultimately may be more of a reliever than a starter, but he has a rare arm,” Callis and Mayo write. They ranked Kelly 90th overall going into the draft.
Brewers Call Up Jimmy Nelson From Triple-A
TODAY: Nelson has been officially recalled, as per the Brewers’ official Twitter feed. Righty Taylor Williams was optioned to Triple-A to create roster space.
SUNDAY: Jimmy Nelson will make his long-awaited return to the majors on Wednesday, as Brewers manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that Nelson will be promoted from Triple-A to start the Brewers’ game against the Marlins.
Wednesday happens to be Nelson’s 30th birthday, making it double the cause for celebration as the right-hander will appear in a Major League game for the first time since September 8, 2017. At the time, Nelson was in the midst of a breakout season that saw him post a 3.49 ERA, 10.2 K/9, and 4.15 K/BB rate over 175 1/3 innings, numbers that earned him a ninth-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting.
Labrum surgery put Nelson on the shelf, however, and the recovery process lingered long enough that hopes of a midseason return (or even a late-season return to boost the Brewers’ pennant run) in 2018 were dashed. Through the long rehab, a couple of setbacks due to soreness, extended Spring Training outings, and five recent appearances for Triple-A San Antonio to further regain his game-readiness, Nelson is finally set to take the ball for Milwaukee.
The return could hardly come at a more opportune time for the Brewers, who lost both Gio Gonzalez (arm fatigue) and Jhoulys Chacin (back strain) to the IL within the last two days. Needless to say, the team will surely be careful about managing Nelson’s workload, and return to his 2017 form may be optimistic, but Nelson should be a boost to a Milwaukee rotation that has been looking for consistent results. Brandon Woodruff and Zach Davies have been solid all year, with Gonzalez and Chase Anderson playing increasingly large roles over the course of the season, though the Brew Crew has again been leaning on its deep bullpen to carry the pitching load as the team battles for the NL Central title.
How Nelson holds up in the coming weeks will be a factor in the Brewers’ trade deadline plans, as pitching depth would surely seem to be an obvious need perhaps even if Nelson does perform well. It should be noted that the Brewers have been linked to Dallas Keuchel‘s market, though Milwaukee will be one of many teams vying for the free agent starter once Keuchel loses the compensatory draft pick (via the qualifying offer) attached to his services tomorrow. If Keuchel proves to be too pricey, the Brewers could explore lower-cost options in trades.
The Yasmani Grandal Contract Looks Even Better In Retrospect
Just because you get a nice price doesn’t mean you oughta buy something. And it doesn’t mean that the thing you purchase will deliver utility commensurate with its cost.
That’s true for MLB teams considering free agents as much as online shoppers contemplating another splurge … except that ballclubs face a notable limitation in the form of roster rules. Teams can’t necessarily have that super-functional fanny pack and a designer handbag, at least without giving up some other much-needed accessory.
In baseball, especially, the gold standard isn’t cost-efficiency standing alone. It’s getting (at least) good value for a premium asset that fulfills a need.
Every so often, teams more or less luck into supreme value. The Tigers deserve credit for re-discovering J.D. Martinez, to be sure, but that’s also just an extremely good outcome on the sort of dice rolls that happen every winter on marginal roster pieces.
Even more rare is the sort of opportunity that arose last winter for the Brewers: a chance to pick up an already-acknowledged premium player at a position of need for an extremely appealing price in free agency. Entering the winter, we predicted Yasmani Grandal would command $64MM over four years — a set of numbers that would’ve been higher had it not been for his stunning issues in the postseason. Instead, the Brewers picked up Grandal’s age-30 season for a measly $18.25MM. (Some of that is deferred as the buyout on a mutual option, but there’s no realistic shot of that being exercised.)
That deal seemed like an exceptional value proposition for the Milwaukee club at the moment it was struck. Before the signing, the club was slated to go with Manny Pina and Erik Kratz. Sure, they only got one year, but that was an opportunity to add a nice chunk of his prime without taking on any long-term risk. There really isn’t even a premium on the cost versus the scenario we proposed; on any lengthy free-agent deal, a team reasonably anticipates much of the on-field to come on the front end.
It’s somewhat anticlimactic to say that … well, the deal is working out exactly as it was drawn up. He’s doing just what he has done before, and then some. Grandal is drawing a lot of walks while striking out at a palatable level and hitting for good power. With his hard-hit rate up early, Grandal is also maintaining a higher BABIP (.310) and batting average (.277) than usual.
The result on offense is a 133 wRC+. Grandal is on pace to set a personal-high in the long ball department, in no small part because he’s being run out in the lineup on a near-everyday basis. Since they aren’t obligated to him for the future, the Brewers don’t need to worry too much about long-term wear and tear. Of course, Grandal is also a strong defender. He continues to grade as a premium pitch framer. And he’s even running a little, having matched his single-season career-high with three stolen bases. Fangraphs’ BsR measure has long loathed Grandal’s work on the bases, but now views him as a neutral overall runner.
Grandal is well on his way to matching or exceeding the roughly 5 WAR annual level of play he sustained with the Dodgers. Getting that sort of player for a one-year deal at the qualifying offer price is kind of hard to believe. What even happened?
It certainly took somewhat unique circumstances for this deal to come together. Grandal turned down a substantial, multi-year offer that wasn’t to his liking. He also decided not to wait out a bigger contract at all costs, though waiting until early/mid-January to sign wasn’t exactly rushing into a deal. Even on a one-year scenario, this deal seemed like it came in cheap; the Braves spent $23MM in hopes of a bounceback year from an older player with a more significant injury history (but also more upside) in Josh Donaldson.
It’s fair to note that things are working out thus far for Grandal as well. He obviously preferred this approach. He ought to have every chance of securing a larger and longer contract if he so desires this winter.
Still, this contract was a fantasy scenario for the Brewers when the offseason started. And so far, the reality has exceeded the dream.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.