NL Central Notes: Brewers, Moustakas, Cards, Molina, Bucs, Polanco
Mike Moustakas “badly” wanted to re-sign with the Brewers, who granted his wish last month when they brought him back for a $10MM guarantee, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required). It was the second consecutive drawn-out stay on the open market for the 30-year-old Moustakas, a career-long third baseman who will move to second base in 2019. It’s a surprising transition on the surface, but not for either the Brewers or Moustakas. Thanks to the presence of third baseman Travis Shaw, who shifted to second upon Moustakas’ arrival at last July’s trade deadline, the Brewers negotiated with the latter with the intention of trying him at second, per Rosenthal. Moustakas, for his part, informed agent Scott Boras early in the offseason he’d like to prepare for a change to second in order to make himself more attractive on the open market, Rosenthal explains. In the end, the increased versatility didn’t lead to a long-term deal for Moustakas, who reeled in his second straight single-year guarantee.
Here’s more from the NL Central:
- Retirement is hardly imminent for 36-year-old Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, who tells Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch he’d like to play at least one more season with the team after his current contract runs out. Molina’s signed through 2020, which will be his 16th season and a year in which he’ll pass Bob Gibson to become the second-longest tenured player in the Cardinals’ storied history. However, while Molina wants to make it to at least Year 17, the potential Hall of Famer has no interest in overstaying his welcome in the majors. “I don’t want to retire when I hit .190 and I can’t throw anybody out at second,” said Molina, who batted .261 and caught 31 percent of would-be base stealers in 2018. When Molina finally does close out his playing career, don’t expect him to become the latest ex-catcher to become a big league manager, as he tells Hummel he’s uninterested in going down that road.
- Cardinals right-hander Jack Flaherty, 23, was among the best young starters in baseball last season, when he recorded a 3.34 ERA/3.86 FIP with 10.85 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9 across 151 innings. As a pre-arbitration player, though, Flaherty won’t earn a salary commensurate with his 2018 production. The Cardinals renewed Flaherty for just over the $555K minimum – $562,100 – after they were unable to reach an agreement with him, Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch reports. The club first offered Flaherty $572,100, but he wasn’t willing to accept that sum, per Goold, who writes that the team determines a pre-arb player’s worth with “essentially a weighted Wins Above Replacement that takes into account service time.” Flaherty racked up 2.6 WAR in 2018, while reliever Jordan Hicks – who also wasn’t able to agree to a 2019 salary with the Cardinals – totaled 0.3. Hicks, like Flaherty, will earn less this year than the team initially offered him, though it’s unclear exactly how much he’ll make, per Goold. While neither player harbors ill feelings against the Cardinals, Flaherty contends that “the system as a whole is not great.” It’s hard to argue with him, especially given that reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell is also in line for a near-minimum salary this season.
- Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco is making notable progress as he recovers from September shoulder surgery and could return by May, according to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Polanco’s able to hit without restrictions, and he has progressed to throwing from 120 feet on back-to-back days. The injury to Polanco forced the Pirates to find fallback options in free agency over the winter, when they signed Lonnie Chisenhall to a $2.75MM deal and added Melky Cabrera on a minor league pact.
NL Central Notes: O’Neill, Brewers, Cubs
As things currently stand, slugging outfielder Tyler O’Neill is expected to make the Cardinals‘ Opening Day roster, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. The Cards “have reserved a spot for him as a spare outfielder, for now,” Goold writes, noting that poor health in the shoulder of Marcell Ozuna and/or continued struggles for Dexter Fowler could eventually thrust him into a larger role. And with Ozuna set to hit free agency at season’s end, a more natural path to everyday at-bats for the 23-year-old O’Neill isn’t hard to see. As Goold highlights in chatting with hitting coach Jeff Albert, O’Neill has worked diligently to improve his contact skills as he seeks a more well-rounded offensive profile. O’Neill slugged 35 homers between Triple-A and the Majors last season but punched out in a quarter of his plate appearances in Triple-A and more than 40 percent of his 142 PAs in the Majors.
More from the division…
- Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns chatted with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and discussed his club’s patient approach in free agency, as well as the decision not to bring in any rotation help from the free-agent market. “I’d say we explored various opportunities on the starting pitching market, but in the backdrop of all of that was the depth and comfort level that we have with our young starters,” said Stearns. “We rode a lot of these guys deep into the playoffs last year, whether it’s Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta or Corbin Burnes. They were in slightly different roles; we’re going to be asking more of them throughout the course of the year this year, but we think they have the potential to do it.” Asked if the team would have the financial wherewithal to make in-season additions after signing Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas, Stearns voiced confidence that owner Mark Attanasio is “willing to support this team and stretch the limits,” pointing to the very additions of Grandal and Moustakas as evidence of that mentality.
- Although the Cubs didn’t make any kind of significant splash in free agency, they’re also not viewing the current roster as a finished product, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Part of the team’s lack of spending stems from a desire to make sure there are ample resources in place this summer to address in-season needs via the trade market. “We don’t know what it’s going to be, but certainly there’s going to be a major focus to make sure we’re in position to improve the team in the middle of the season,” said general manager Jed Hoyer of potential summer activity.
- Perhaps the biggest additions the Cubs could see in 2019 would be healthy versions of Kris Bryant and Yu Darvish. Bryant said today in an appearance on 670 The Score that his shoulder feels “completely healed,” stressing that he’s not feeling any lingering effects of the injury that slowed him in 2018 (Twitter link). Darvish, meanwhile, spoke with confidence following his most recent spring outing, with particular excitement over the fact that his fastball reached 97 mph in that game (link via Wittenmyer). Obviously, only time will tell whether either former All-Star can rebound to something resembling peak form, but the fact that neither appears hampered by lingering effects of last season’s health struggles is nonetheless a positive sign for Cubs fans early on in camp.
Brewers’ Bobby Wahl Suffers Torn ACL
Brewers reliever Bobby Wahl has suffered a torn ACL in his right knee and will likely miss the 2019 season, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com was among those to report. Wahl incurred the injury while pitching, making it a particularly rare occurrence, general manager David Stearns pointed out (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).
Stearns acquired the 26-year-old Wahl from the Mets this past January in a four-player trade centering on outfielder Keon Broxton, and the right-hander could have worked his way into the Brewers’ bullpen mix in 2019. Instead, Wahl seems poised to sit out the year after succumbing to yet another serious injury in his short professional career. A fifth-round pick of the Athletics in 2013, Wahl dealt with oblique and elbow problems early in his tenure with them, and he underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in 2017.
Wahl returned from the procedure last year to post excellent production with Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate, as he pitched to a 2.27 ERA/2.48 FIP with a sky-high strikeout rate (14.75 K/9, compared to 3.86 BB/9) over 39 2/3 innings. The A’s then traded Wahl to the Mets in a July deal for reliever Jeurys Familia. Wahl ended up throwing 5 1/3 innings apiece with the Mets and their top minor league affiliate.
Thus far, Wahl owns just a 6.92 ERA/4.93 FIP with 10.38 K/9 and 5.54 BB/9 across 13 big league frames. However, Wahl’s strong output in the minors has helped him rank among the Brewers’ top 30 prospects at both FanGraphs (No. 19) and MLB.com (No. 26). Back in November, FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen lauded Wahl’s four-pitch mix – including a mid- to high-90s fastball and a “bat-missing” curve – though they noted he carries a higher degree of injury risk than most pitching prospects.
Pitching Notes: Farrell, Chatwood, J. Nelson, Cessa
Rangers pitcher Luke Farrell suffered a non-displaced fracture of his right jaw Saturday, the team announced. The injury occurred when a line drive off the bat of the Giants’ Jalen Miller struck Farrell in the face, forcing the right-hander out of the game and to a Scottsdale, Ariz., hospital for examination. Farrell has since been released from the hospital, but he’ll undergo further examination Monday, according to the Rangers. The son of former big league manager John Farrell, Luke Farrell is in his first spring with the Rangers, who claimed him off waivers from the Angels in January. The 27-year-old spent 2018 as a member of the Cubs, with whom he registered a 5.17 ERA/5.20 FIP and 11.2 K/9 against 4.6 BB/9 in 31 1/3 innings.
- Just 15 months removed from signing a three-year, $38MM contract with the Cubs, righty Tyler Chatwood isn’t a lock to make their roster this season, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune observes. Chatwood said Saturday he views himself as a starter, but he’s not a candidate for Chicago’s season-opening rotation if the quintet remains healthy, leaving him to fight for a long relief role. If he doesn’t win the job, the Cubs could try to trade Chatwood, but they’d have to eat a large chunk of the $25.5MM left on his contract in order to make that a realistic possibility, Gonzales notes. Chatwood was in the Cubs’ rotation for the majority of last season, as he made 20 starts in 24 appearances, but he managed a hideous 5.30 ERA/5.50 FIP and issued an eye-popping 95 walks in 103 2/3 innings. So far this spring, Chatwood has walked just one batter over five frames in his bid for a roster spot.
- Brewers righty Jimmy Nelson had to pause his throwing program earlier this week because of arm fatigue, but he’s now on track to throw his first live batting practice of the spring Monday, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. It’s a long time coming for Nelson, who hasn’t pitched to live hitters since he underwent shoulder surgery in September 2017, thus knocking a promising career off the rails.
- Yankees righty Luis Cessa is the front-runner for a season-opening long relief role, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com suggests. While Cessa would need to beat out fellow righties Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga for the spot, it should help the former’s cause that he’s the only one who has no minor league options left, Hoch points out. And Cessa has pitched well this spring, leading manager Aaron Boone to say Saturday he has “a really good opportunity” to make the team. The soon-to-be 27-year-old would be the least heralded member of the Yankees’ stacked bullpen, having pitched to a 4.71 ERA/5.03 FIP with 6.85 K/9 and 2.62 BB/9 in 151 innings with the club since 2016.
Health Notes: Nelson, Herrera, Swanson, Oaks
Brewers hurler Jimmy Nelson is pausing his throwing program owing to “arm fatigue discomfort,” president of baseball operations David Stearns tells reporters including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. All involved say they’re unconcerned with the development, with manager Craig Counsell labeling it “a very minor setback.” It has been a long road back already for Nelson, who hasn’t thrown a competitive inning since undergoing a labrum procedure in September of 2017. He’ll need to wait a while longer before taking the bump in a Spring Training contest, with the club understandably maintaining a conservative plan in light of his health history.
More health notes from around the game …
- The Phillies say that outfielder Odubel Herrera is dealing with a grade 1 hamstring strain, Matt Breen of Philly.com reports on Twitter. He’s said to be “coming along,” though skipper Gabe Kapler couldn’t specify when Herrera will be ready to take the field. It’s not a terribly worrying injury at the outset of camp, though it will limit Herrera’s opportunities to get in a groove after a disappointing 2018 season. The wild card in the situation is the Phils’ ongoing pursuit of Bryce Harper and their as-yet-unknown plans for shuffling the outfield deck if they sign him. The injury might impact Herrera’s marketability, if he’s a player the team would consider moving to make way for Harper.
- Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson is readying for his first Spring Training game action at the end of the week, per Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). That seems to represent a positive sign for a player who underwent wrist surgery at the conclusion of the 2018 campaign. Swanson had a quiet but reasonably promising 2018 campaign, with sparkling glovework and baserunning making up for still-lagging production at the plate. Swanson produced only a .238/.304/.395 slash (80 wRC+) with 14 home runs and ten steals over 533 plate appearances, but that represented a step forward after a rough 2017 effort. He’ll open camp with a presumption of at least semi-regular playing time, but could face pressure from Johan Camargo over the course of the season.
- Hip surgery is on the table for Royals righty Trevor Oaks, Rustin Dodd of The Athletic reports (subscription link). If it is determined that he needs to go under the knife for a labrum tear, the 25-year-old will miss a significant portion of the season to come. Oaks turned in 128 1/3 innings of 3.23 ERA ball at Triple-A last year after he was acquired in last winter’s Scott Alexander swap. He managed only 4.9 K/9 with 3.1 BB/9 on the year, though did post a 50.2% groundball rate (which actually lags his well-above-average minor-league career groundball numbers). Oaks also made a brief MLB debut in 2018. As Dodd explains, it didn’t seem likely that he’d crack the active roster to open the coming campaign. Nevertheless, the loss would dent the Royals’ rotation depth.
Quick Hits: Harrison, Lawrie, LeMahieu
Josh Harrison made the most of his time off by spending it with his family, staying busy and working through his usual offseason workouts, but he was certainly frustrated by his experience in free agency, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. His $2MM deal with the Tigers finally became official yesterday after news broke of the deal on Wednesday. Harrison struggled in his final year in Pittsburgh with just a .250/.293/.363 batting line in 374 plate appearances – though he was nonetheless worth roughly 2.48 fWAR per season over the four seasons prior. Harrison should be comfortable in Detroit, which is very near to his hometown of Cincinnati and already employs his former double play partner Jordy Mercer. The irony of course is that contenders are often on the lookout for a veteran who can play all over the field on a cheap $2MM deal, so a hot start in Detroit means he likely finishes the season elsewhere. Then, of course, he’ll have to do it all again as a free agent next season. Let’s see how free agency went for another couple of second baseman…
- President of baseball ops David Stearns says new Brewer Brett Lawrie will begin the season in the minors as he attempts a comeback. The Brewers have performed a more extensive physical evaluation than usual for Lawrie – who last played in the majors in 2016 for the White Sox. Lawrie, 29, will not yet begin baseball activities, instead spending the next six weeks working with the Brewers medical and strength staff. Given the multitude of lower body injuries Lawrie suffered throughout his career, the Brewers are intent on doing the leg work, so to speak, “to understand what’s going on with Brett’s body from a physical perspective,” though Stearns made sure to point out that Lawrie is not injured at this time. Rather, the goal of these next six weeks is to set up Lawrie, best they can, to get healthy and stay healthy while playing baseball. Watch the video of Stearns addressing Lawrie’s situation on the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
- We already knew the Rays considered signing DJ LeMahieu in free agency, but the interest was apparently mutual. LeMahieu gave “serious thought” to signing with the Tampa Bay Rays before joining their AL East rival, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times. It’s not exactly a shocking revelation, as the Rays could offer LeMahieu much the same situation he will receive in New York – at least in terms of playing time on a competitive roster. Still, it’s not often likely these two teams go head-to-head in free agency.
Brewers Sign Brett Lawrie
TODAY: Lawrie’s deal with the Brewers is now official, the team announced.
FEBRUARY 9: Infielder Brett Lawrie, out of baseball since the conclusion of the 2016 season, announced on Instagram today that he has signed with Milwaukee. Per Robert Murray of the Athletic, the deal is a minors pact with a club option for 2020, and may reach up to $7MM in total value. If he cracks the MLB roster at any point during the 2019 season, he’ll earn $1MM. The deal also includes performance bonuses in 2019, with “escalators” baked in to the 2020 option.
The 29-year-old Lawrie made his early-career mark with the Blue Jays, where his abrasive, hard-nosed style of play split critics and admirers evenly apart. After four injury-marred seasons in Toronto, wherein the Canadian-born Lawrie settled in as a league-average bat with an on-again, off-again glove, the then-24-year-old was the centerpiece of the ridiculously lopsided trade that sent eventual AL MVP Josh Donaldson to the Jays.
Though he made it through a mostly-full season for the first time, Lawrie was a disappointment in Oakland. His famously aggressive style in the box teetered too far to the negative extreme, at times spilling over to the basepaths, and even on the field, where his verbal outbursts and come-get-me persona overshadowed a lethargic statistical output. After a 0.9 fWAR season, suppressed largely by an awful defensive performance, Lawrie was shipped early in the offseason to the South side of Chicago.
With the White Sox, Lawrie’s strikeout rate ballooned to career-high 28.4%, and he again struggled to stay on the field. Still, his offensive performance maintained its even flow, as he fell around five percent below league-average for the third consecutive season.
Forecasting a player after such a long absence is a difficult task, but the offensive bar in the Brewers infield has been set shockingly low. The club is set to enter the season with a platoon of Cory Spangenberg and Hernan Perez at second, neither of whom can match Lawrie’s league-average (.261/.315/.419, 100 wRC+) track record. If the rust is surface-layer, Lawrie should find his way back to the major-league roster in short order.
NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Moose, Reds, Montgomery
Though the Cardinals have a deep mix of rotation candidates, Bernie Miklasz of The Athletic explores the uncertainty surrounding many of those arms in a call for the St. Louis organization to pursue free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel (subscription required). The Cards can’t know what to expect from Adam Wainwright, Miklasz writes, and the recent shoulder troubles for Carlos Martinez have raised some questions as well. Michael Wacha, too, has had his share of injuries in recent seasons and made only 15 starts in 2018. And while ballyhooed prospect Alex Reyes has a sky-high ceiling, he’s pitched just four innings across the past two seasons (27 frames, including the minors) and will obviously be limited in ’19 as a result. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas each have just one season of MLB success under their belt, and the depth options for the rotation are even less established.
Furthermore, each of Mikolas, Wacha and Wainwright are free agents next winter, creating some potential needs down the line. Miklasz does write, however, that the Cardinals are “confident” of reaching an extension with Mikolas. Both sides expressed interest in such a deal late last month.
Here’s more from the NL Central…
- Mike Moustakas met with reporters upon his arrival at Brewers camp this week to discuss his offseason and his new position: second base (video link courtesy of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). “It’s going to be fun,” said Moustakas of playing second base. “Obviously, it’s going to be new. I’ve been over there a couple of times in the shift, so it’s kind of comfortable at this point. … Me and Counsell talked about — even last year, we talked about it when I got traded over.” Moustakas had no gripes about being asked to make the switch even though last season it was Travis Shaw who slid to second base. Rather, he touted Shaw’s “phenomenal” glove at the hot corner and voiced trust in the Brewers’ data/analytics department to help position him for success at his new spot on the diamond. There are, of course, some other intricacies to handle, though Moustakas noted that the middle infield isn’t totally foreign to him, considering he was drafted as a shortstop (and logged 561 innings there in the low minors from 2007-08). “…That double play is something we’re going to have work on and get used to, and cutoffs, relays — being in the right position. I’ll get the hang of it.”
- Because the Reds have yet to add a true center field option to the roster, Scott Schebler is among the top options to break camp in that role, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The 28-year-old does have a nominal amount of experience at the position, having logged a combined 358 innings there across the past three seasons. “I’m interested to see him in center,” rookie manager David Bell said to Sheldon. “Everyone I’ve talked to that has seen him, people are confident that he can do it. I am, too, but it’ll be a good opportunity to see him out there. I’m convinced he can be really good in left and right.” Schebler will have some competition for the center field gig in the form of Yasiel Puig and top prospect Nick Senzel, though Senzel played in only 44 games last season due to a fractured finger and vertigo symptoms; he was also forced to sit out the Arizona Fall League after undergoing elbow surgery.
- Cole Hamels‘ return to the Cubs all but eliminated Mike Montgomery‘s chances of opening the season in the team’s rotation, but Montgomery nonetheless tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian that he was “rooting” for the team to retain Hamels. Montgomery will return to a role with which he’s quite familiar — one that requires him to be ready to start, pitch in high-leverage spots late in games and also to enter in multi-inning stints as needed. “Be a guy that can start 20 games or close 20 games, because it has to be [that way],” said Montgomery. As Bastian notes, Montgomery not only started 19 games in Chicago last season, he also entered the game in eight different innings as a reliever and pitched multiple innings of relief on seven occasions. The versatile lefty is controlled through the 2021 season and will earn $2.44MM in 2019 as a first-time arbitration-eligible player.
Brewers Re-Sign Mike Moustakas
The Brewers and free-agent third baseman Mike Moustakas have officially agreed to a one-year agreement. The Boras Corporation client will reportedly earn $10MM on the deal, which includes a $7MM salary in 2019 and $3MM buyout on a $11MM mutual option for 2020.
The 30-year-old Moustakas’ deal with the Brewers means he’ll wrap up a second straight lengthy stay in free-agent limbo. He first reached the open market last offseason and ended up going without a job until early March, when the Royals re-signed him to a contract worth a guaranteed $6.5MM. Kansas City was no doubt hoping to contend at the time, but it ended up as a bottom-feeding team, leading it to send Moustakas to Milwaukee in advance of the July trade deadline. As a Brewer, Moustakas hit .256/.326/.441, right in line with the .249/.309/.468 line he posted as a Royal last year. All told, Moustakas smacked 28 home runs, logged a 105 wRC+ and registered 2.4 fWAR over 635 trips to the plate.
Since his 2011 major league debut with the Royals, Moustakas has almost exclusively played third base, where he has accounted for nine runs saved and a plus-15.1 Ultimate Zone Rating. The hot corner is also the home of slugger Travis Shaw, who bumped over to second for the first time last season on the heels of the Moustakas acquisition. Now, the plan is for Moustakas to get a run at second base this spring, with the organization continuing to rely upon defensive positioning to help shoehorn both power hitters into the same unit. With those two, Jesus Aguilar at first base and Orlando Arcia at shortstop, the Brewers look to have a strong starting infield in place after falling just one win shy of reaching the World Series in 2018.
The Moustakas re-signing is the second major move for Milwaukee since last season ended. The club previously signed catcher Yasmani Grandal to a one-year contract, and with him and Moustakas in the fold for a full year, the Brewers may be serious NL contenders once again. The club finished seventh in the majors in position player fWAR last season despite receiving subpar production at second, where Shaw should take over in the wake of the Moustakas deal, and behind the plate. Of course, it’s up in the air whether the Brewers will be able to survive a second straight year without anything resembling a front-line starter, unless one of their in-house hurlers bursts on the scene.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the signing. Bob Nightengale of USA Today had the salary, while Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Bob Nightengale of USA Today added the mutual option details.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mike Moustakas Could Play Second Base For Brewers
When word of Mike Moustakas‘ impending return to the Brewers broke, the assumption among many was that the Milwaukee organization would utilize the same defensive alignment as in 2019: Travis Shaw shifting over to second base and Moustakas handling third base. However, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweets that the Brewers will use Spring Training to determine if Moustakas is able to handle second base. If the team is satisfied with what it sees, Moustakas will be the primary second baseman, with Shaw remaining at third base.
While the arrangement likely isn’t one that many would anticipate, it does have the potential to be the best of their options. Shaw, after all, has turned in quite strong defensive marks at the hot corner since coming to Milwaukee, recording 22 Defensive Runs Saved and a +3.5 Ultimate Zone Rating across the past few seasons. Moustakas, meanwhile, has been average or slightly better for most of the past four seasons (with his return year from surgery to repair an ACL tear standing out as an understandable exception).
If Moustakas is able to play even competently at second base, the Brewers could enjoy the benefit of retaining a plus defender at the hot corner. Of course, if the experiment doesn’t yield dividends, there’ll be a fair bit of second-guessing as to why the Brewers didn’t simply acquire a truer option at second base. The market certainly had — and still has — alternatives. Marwin Gonzalez, Josh Harrison and Logan Forsythe are among the currently available players, and it’s worth pointing out that the Brewers were seemingly willing to pay more to play Moustakas out of position than they’d have needed to pay to simply sign Brian Dozier, who went to the Nationals for one year and $9MM.
Of course, the 30-year-old Moustakas is coming off of his fourth-straight season of above-average offensive work, with his consistent power making up for less-than-certain on-base numbers. And the Brewers know well what they are getting, having seen Moustakas up close down the stretch in 2018. In any event, it’ll be fascinating to see how the experiment pans out.