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Brewers Acquire Mike Brosseau From Rays

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The Brewers have acquired utilityman Mike Brosseau from the Rays in exchange for minor league right-hander Evan Reifert.  Both teams have officially announced the trade.

One of many multi-positional players coming through the Rays’ pipeline, Brosseau was an undrafted free agent who rose through Tampa’s ranks to appear in 143 games over the last three seasons.  Brosseau hit .284/.343/.500 with 11 homers over 240 plate appearances in 2019-20, and looked to be on the verge of becoming a regular in the Rays’ infield mix before struggling in 2021.

Brosseau never seemed to get on track in the early going, and then found himself frequently shuttled back and forth between Tampa Bay and Triple-A Durham.  An oblique strain in July further hampered his season, and overall, Brosseau hit only .187/.266/.347 over 169 PA for the Rays.  This apparently made Brosseau an expendable piece for a Rays team deep in infield depth, and as broadcaster Neil Solondz notes, the Rays now also open up a roster spot in advance of the 40-man roster deadline on November 19.

The Brewers have a pattern of seeking out versatile players, and Brosseau has plenty of experience at multiple positions.  He has mostly played second base and third base throughout his pro career, but also has seen a decent chunk of action as a shortstop, first baseman, and corner outfielder.  A right-handed hitter, Brosseau can serve as a complement to lefty swingers Kolten Wong at second base or Rowdy Tellez at first base.  With Brosseau now in the fold, it could increase the chances that Milwaukee parts ways with at least one of Daniel Vogelbach or Jace Peterson prior to November 19, or the December 2 non-tender deadline.

Reifert is also technically an undrafted player, as though he was a 30th-round pick for the Rangers in 2018, he opted to attend college rather than begin his pro career at that stage.  He instead signed with the Brewers in 2020, as Reifert wasn’t selected in the shortened five-round 2020 draft.

The 22-year-old righty looked good in his first season, posting a 2.10 ERA with a stunning 40.23% strikeout rate over 60 combined relief innings with the Brewers’ high-A and A-ball affiliates.  Those missed bats came with some shaky control, however, as Reifert’s walk rate was a concerning 14.06%.  Reifert possesses an upper-90s fastball, so if the Rays can improve his command, the team will have yet another hard-throwing bullpen weapon at their disposal in the next season or two.

Brewers Hire Ozzie Timmons, Connor Dawson As Hitting Coaches

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The Brewers announced this afternoon that they’ve hired Ozzie Timmons and Connor Dawson as co-hitting coaches. They’re also planning to hire an assistant hitting coach to work underneath Timmons and Dawson, tweets Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. They’ll replace Andy Haines, whose contract was not renewed last month.

Timmons has spent the past four seasons on the Rays’ coaching staff. He’d split his time between base coaching and serving as Tampa Bay’s assistant hitting coach before getting a bump to full-time assistant hitting coach last month. Just a few weeks later, he’ll land a more significant role in Milwaukee. An outfielder in his playing days, the 51-year-old Timmons appeared in parts of five big league seasons from 1995-2000.

Dawson comes over from the Mariners, where he’d been Seattle’s minor league hitting coordinator. The 28-year-old had previously spent a couple seasons coaching in the M’s system and now gets his first job on a big league staff.

Mets Still Targeting David Stearns After His Brewers Contract Ends

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1:15PM: Stearns is “happily employed” with the Brewers, he told MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Stearns also declined to clarify how many years or possible years may remain on his Brewers contract.

8:14AM: The Mets have twice been denied in their attempts to interview David Stearns about their president of baseball operations job, as Brewers owner Mark Attanasio declined the Mets’ requests both last season and earlier this offseason.  However, the Mets are seemingly prepared to simply wait the Brewers out, as The Athletic’s Tim Britton, Britt Ghiroli, and Ken Rosenthal report that New York will approach Stearns about their front office vacancy next winter, when his contract with the Brewers may or may not be up.

In the interim, the Mets’ search has been focused on assistant general manager types, who would become the club’s GM in 2022.  (Former Nationals AGM Adam Cromie has recently emerged as a favorite for the job.)  Should the Mets’ plan to land Stearns come to fruition, Cromie or whomever ends up in the GM role would then become the ops department’s chief lieutenant to Stearns, who would carry the official PBO title and sit at the top of the Amazins’ decision-making pyramid.

It would make for an unusual dynamic for at least one season in the team’s front office, not that there has been much normalcy associated with the Mets’ very public search to date.  Several potential candidates have already declined interviews with the Mets, quite likely because of the associated uncertainty.  Looking it from the perspective of an assistant GM, if you’re comfortable with your current team, why take the risk of accepting what might be a one-year job, should Stearns (or another incoming boss that you aren’t familiar with) decides that they want their own handpicked GM as their top lieutenant?

Waiting for Stearns also carries its own set of challenges for the Mets.  “Stearns has serious interest in the position,” Britton/Ghiroli/Rosenthal write, which isn’t really surprising given that Stearns grew up as a Mets fan in New York and even interned in the club’s front office in 2008.  It could be that some unofficial back-channel communication may have already taken place between the two sides, though Stearns’ feelings about the job could change if and when he has a formal interview with team officials.  (It can also be assumed that Attanasio would likely be on the lookout for any sort of early talks of any kind between Stearns and the Mets, should he feel tampering is taking place.)

Stearns has also enjoyed a lot of success in Milwaukee, and could prefer to remain with the Brewers on another contract extension, or perhaps even investigate a potential job opening with another team besides the Brewers or Mets.  Plus, Stearns’ contractual situation is a little unclear.  The Mets reportedly believe Stearns will be available next winter, though reports have suggested some type of vesting option could be in place for Stearns to remain with in Milwaukee through the 2023 season.  If this option does exist and it vests, the Mets would find themselves putting their front office plans on hold for yet another season — assuming Stearns would remain at the top of their list, and another executive didn’t emerge in the interim.

Joakim Soria Retires

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Right-handed pitcher Joakim Soria is retiring, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, relaying word from Soria’s agent. The 37-year-old pitched for nine different teams over 14 MLB seasons.

Soria made his MLB debut for the Kansas City Royals back in 2007, throwing 69 innings with an ERA of 2.48 and notching 17 saves. He became a mainstay of the Royals’ bullpen through the 2011 campaign. In those five seasons, he pitched 315 1/3 innings with an ERA of 2.40 and racked up 160 saves. He was an All-Star twice, in 2008 and 2010.

That would prove to be the best stretch of Soria’s career, although he continued to be an effective reliever for another decade, pitching for the Rangers, Tigers and Pirates, returning to the Royals, and then stints with White Sox, Brewers and Athletics. In 2021, he started the season with the Diamondbacks and was later traded to the Blue Jays.

Over his entire career, he threw 763 innings with an ERA of 3.11, along with 831 strikeouts and 229 saves. MLBTR congratulates Soria on a fine career and wishes him all the best in his future endeavors.

Brewers Won’t Issue Qualifying Offer To Avisail Garcia

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NOVEMBER 7: The Brewers won’t issue a qualifying offer to Garcia or any of their free agents, MLB.com’s Tim McCalvy reports (via Twitter).

NOVEMBER 5: Avisail Garcia declined his end of a $12MM mutual option with the Brewers yesterday, opting for a $2MM buyout and a return trip to the free agent market. Before he formally hits free agency on Sunday at 5pm ET, however, the Brewers will have the opportunity to issue him a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer. No decision on that front has been made just yet, but the Brewers are indeed considering that course of action, writes Will Sammon of The Athletic.

If Milwaukee does issue a qualifying offer Sunday, Garcia would have ten days to determine whether to accept or reject. Garcia and agent Gene Mato would be able to negotiate with other teams during that ten-day window in order to get an early sense of the market. If Garcia were to accept that $18.4MM offer, he’d be signed for the 2022 season and effectively ineligible to be traded prior to next June 15, as is the case with all free agents who sign Major League contracts.

Were Garcia to reject the offer, he’d be subject to draft pick compensation; any team that signed Garcia would do so at the cost of forfeitures in next year’s draft. The exact compensation varies from team to team. Teams that paid the luxury tax in 2021 (i.e. Dodgers, Padres) would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks in the draft, in addition to $1MM of next year’s league-allotted international bonus pool. Teams that received revenue-sharing would forfeit their third-highest pick in the draft. Any of the 15 other teams would forfeit its second-highest pick and see a $500K reduction in its international bonus pool. (The team-by-team breakdown of those categories can be seen in this previous piece from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes.)

The Brewers, meanwhile, would receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2022 draft if Garcia signs a contract worth $50MM or more in guaranteed money. Should Garcia sign for less, Milwaukee would receive a compensatory pick after next year’s Competitive Balance Round B — typically in the No. 75 to 80 range.

On the one hand, making an offer is a risk for the Brewers. There’s at least a chance that Garcia would accept the offer in hopes of producing another strong season and returning to the open market next year, without the burden of draft compensation. Garcia accepting a qualifying offer would push Milwaukee’s projected payroll up into the $140MM range for next season — well north of the team’s current Opening Day record of about $122.5MM (from 2019).

On the other hand, Garcia’s 2021 season — .262/.330/.490, 29 home runs, 18 doubles, eight stolen bases, strong right field defense — was certainly worth that $18.4MM. Were he to accept and repeat that production, it’d hardly be an egregious overpay. And, that strong showing both at the plate and in the field has made Garcia a clear candidate for a multi-year deal in free agency. He’s not likely to secure that same $18.4MM value on an annual basis, but he could earn a much larger guarantee over a longer term. Players reject the qualifying offer more often than they accept, as most generally prefer the stability and security of a long-term deal. Longer-term pacts protect them against any injury or regression that might occur in the event of accepting the QO, and it’s eminently understandable that players with families prefer the continuity of a multi-year pact rather than moving those families around the continent on a year-to-year basis.

Market context matters, too. There’s a fair number of corner outfield options on the market this winter, with Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte (who can also play center), Mark Canha, Michael Conforto, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario among the available options. Garcia falls into the middle of that group, but his stock could be strengthened by the fact that not every team will be able to afford the very top-of-the-market options. Garcia could well be viewed as one of the more palatable options in that next tier, offering a promising blend of power, athleticism and defense.

Luke Maile, Eric Yardley Elect Free Agency

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The Brewers announced today that catcher Luke Maile and right-handed pitcher Eric Yardley have elected free agency after being outrighted. Neither player was a major contributor in Milwaukee in 2021, though Maile posted a strong .816 OPS (albeit in only 34 plate appearances). Yardley put together an excellent showing in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, including a sparkling 1.54 ERA in 23 1/3 innings of relief, but was eminently hittable in 2021, pitching to a 6.75 ERA in 18 2/3 big-league innings.

While Maile’s strong line in limited action is sure to draw a bit of attention, his career numbers in the Majors are considerably more pedestrian — .203/.258/.310 in 691 PAs. It’s his glove (and arm) that lead his tool-set. In parts of six seasons with the Rays, Blue Jays, and Brewers, Maile has thrown out 34% of would-be base-stealers and logged 21 defensive runs saved in 220 games behind the dish. At minimum, he’s sure to receive a minor-league deal with a chance to compete for a backup role, but he could be a candidate for guaranteed money.

Yardley’s future is less clear, though his stellar 2020 probably guarantees him at least a shot to catch on somewhere. Undrafted out of Seattle University, the soft-tossing submariner played in the independent Pecos League before signing a minor league deal with the Padres in 2013. He consistently posted strong numbers in the minors before making his debut in San Diego in 2019, though the Padres designated him for assignment that offseason despite a strong 2.31 ERA across 11 2/3 innings with the big club. He’ll hope to be given another shot to show he can limit hard contact and provide Major League value despite a fastball that sits in the high 80s.

Avisail Garcia Declines Mutual Option, Becomes Free Agent

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Brewers outfielder Avisail Garcia has declined his half of a $12MM mutual option for the 2022 season, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). He’ll instead receive a $2MM buyout and head out into the free agent market in search of another multi-year deal.

Avisail Garcia | Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Garcia, 31 next June, struggled through the 2020 season in Milwaukee but enjoyed one of the finest seasons of his career in a rebound 2021 showing. The former Tigers, White Sox and Rays slugger swatted a career-best 29 home runs this season while posting a strong .262/.330/.490 batting line — about 15 percent better than league-average production, by measure of wRC+. His original two-year, $20MM deal with the Brewers came with a $12MM club option that the team could very well have exercised. However, the contract also contained a provision that converted that option into a mutual option with enough plate appearances, and Garcia reached that threshold back in September, earning the right to return to the free-agent market.

This will be the second foray into the free-agent market for Garcia, who posted a similar 113 wRC+ mark in his last platform year (2019). However, Garcia hit for more power in ’21 than he did in ’19 and also drew better defensive grades for his outfield work this year (in part because the 2019 Rays occasionally deployed him in center, to sub-par results).

Another multi-year deal for Garcia seems quite likely, as he’s wrapped up a strong season and further solidified the notion that he’s capable of being a team’s everyday right fielder. Garcia crushed lefties in 2021 (.279/.406/.529), as he is wont to do, and delivered league-average output against right-handed opponents. The question for him in free agency will be the extent by which he can eclipse his prior contract.

The improved power output and defensive ratings are obvious points in Garcia’s favor, but he’s now also two years older than last time around. His 2021 Statcast profile is quite appealing, as Garcia ranked in the 73rd percentile of MLB hitters in average exit velocity and had strong percentile showings in hard-hit rate (78th), expected batting average (83rd), expected slugging (87th), expected wOBA (85th) and sprint speed (88th). Then again, much of that was true in 2019 (albeit not quite to this extent).

Garcia has long shown a knack for hard contact and far more speed than one would expect from a player listed at 6’4″ and 250 pounds. The 2021 season, however, is the first that he’s delivered truly high-end power output with the type of plus defensive ratings that align with his tantalizing tool set. The Brewers technically have the right to make him an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but that’d register as something of a surprise given the typically tight payroll in Milwaukee.

Jackie Bradley Jr. To Exercise 2022 Player Option To Remain With Brewers

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Brewers outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. will be exercising his $9.5MM player option to remain in Milwaukee for the 2022 season, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).  Bradley would have received a $6.5MM buyout had he chosen to decline the option and re-enter the free agent market.  Bradley and the Brewers share a $12MM mutual option for the 2023 season that contains an $8MM buyout.

It was expected that Bradley would pick up his option in the wake of the worst hitting season of his nine-year MLB career.  While Bradley’s numbers at the plate have always been somewhat inconsistent, his production utterly plummeted in 2021, with only a .163/.236/.261 slash line and six home runs over 428 plate appearances.  Due to his late signing, Bradley missed the first month of Spring Training, yet that lack of preparation time hardly accounts for a career-worst walk rate (6.5%) and strikeout rate (30.8%).

The offensive numbers were poor enough that Bradley was still a negative-fWAR player (-0.8) even despite his still-excellent glovework.  Bradley is a finalist for the NL center field Gold Glove, and looking to earn the award for the second time, after capturing AL honors with the Red Sox in 2018.  For a medium-market team like the Brewers, $9.5MM is a hefty price for a defense-only player, even a stellar fielder like Bradley.  It doesn’t help that the Brew Crew are also paying $18MM to Lorenzo Cain next season, another excellent defender whose bat has fallen off (though not to the extent of Bradley’s struggles).

If Milwaukee looked to carve out payroll space by trading one of the two, Bradley is probably the easier sell, if a team is willing to roll the dice on a rebound at the plate and is intrigued by the extra year of control if Bradley’s hitting does rebound.  A significant chunk of Bradley’s contract is deferred, so in terms of pure dollars, the Brewers have only paid Bradley $3MM thus far, though the future deferrals could complicate any trade possibilities.

Brewers Sign Trevor Gott To Major League Deal

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2:35 pm: The Brewers have announced the deal.

12:58 pm: Gott’s deal is a split contract, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). He’ll receive a 40-man roster spot but earn different salaries depending upon if he’s pitching at the major league or minor league levels.

11:47 am: The Brewers are signing free agent reliever Trevor Gott to a one-year, major league contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). Gott is represented by Sports One Athlete Management.

It’s a bit surprising to see the right-hander land a big league deal right out of the gate. Gott was designated for assignment by the Giants last offseason and passed through outright waivers. Briefly re-selected to the 40-man roster in April, he was quickly DFA’d and again cleared the waiver wire. Gott spent the rest of the season with San Francisco’s top affiliate in Sacramento before electing minor league free agency last month. Because he qualified for minor league free agency in early October, Gott was eligible to sign elsewhere before the end of the current five-day window of exclusivity for teams to negotiate with their own free agents.

Gott had a nice run with the River Cats in 2021, tossing 41 2/3 innings of 4.10 ERA ball over 43 appearances. Opponents’ .340 batting average on balls in play inflated his Triple-A run prevention numbers, but Gott punched out a very strong 31% of minor league hitters on the back of a solid 14.9% swinging strike rate.

Between 2015-20, Gott posted inconsistent results but intermittently flashed solid ability. He worked to a 3.02 ERA with the Angels in his rookie season, overcoming mediocre strikeout and walk numbers that year thanks to a massive 57.2% ground-ball rate. After three years with the Nationals riddled by injuries and underperformance, Gott seemed to break out with the 2019 Giants. While he posted an ordinary 4.44 ERA over 52 2/3 frames, his strikeout (26.6%), walk (7.9%) and swinging strike (10.8%) numbers were all solid or better.

Unfortunately for Gott, he couldn’t build off that success in 2020. He was tagged for thirteen runs, including a staggering seven homers, in just 11 2/3 innings. That remains his most recent body of work at the major league level, but the Milwaukee front office will take a low-risk roll of the dice that the 29-year-old can yet regain some of his best form.

Once made official, the Gott signing will bring Milwaukee’s 40-man roster tally up to 38. It’s not out of the question the Brewers could bump Gott from the 40-man at some point this winter should the need for another spot arise, but the front office is clearly intrigued by his potential to assume a role in next year’s bullpen. Gott is out of minor league option years, so he’ll either need to break camp with the big league team next season or be made available to the rest of the league. Should he right the ship and cement himself in the Brewers’ relief group, Gott could be controlled through the end of the 2024 campaign via arbitration.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers’ fourth consecutive postseason appearance ended in more October heartbreak, as the Braves eliminated Milwaukee in four games in the NLDS.  As the Brewers look to contend again next season, some tough financial decisions may have to be made depending on how far ownership is willing to stretch the payroll.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $188.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of $20MM mutual option for 2029)
  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $18MM through 2022
  • Jackie Bradley Jr., OF: $17.5MM in 2022 (includes $8MM buyout of $12MM mutual option for 2023 — Bradley can opt out of $9.5MM salary for 2022, and receives $6.5MM buyout in the event of an opt-out)
  • Freddy Peralta, SP: $12.75MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2025; Brewers also hold $8MM club option for 2026 with no buyout)
  • Kolten Wong, 2B: $10MM in 2022 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2023)
  • Josh Lindblom, RP: $2.75MM in 2022 (Brewers outrighted Lindblom off 40-man roster in May)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Much of the Brewers’ buzz early in the offseason has focused on their executives being targeted by the Mets, though New York’s inquiries ended up being much ado about nothing.  The Brewers again denied the Mets permission to speak with president of baseball operations David Stearns, and assistant GM Matt Arnold also removed his name from consideration and ended up with a contract extension to remain in Milwaukee.  This situation is worth monitoring for the future, considering that Stearns’ contract may or may not be up after the 2022 season, depending on a possible vesting option that could extend the Brewers’ control over the PBO through 2023.  With the Mets’ interest looming, there is sure to be plenty of attention paid to Stearns’ status with the Brew Crew, though one would expect owner Mark Attanasio to again look into extending his top baseball exec.

For now, Stearns’ focus is on figuring out how to get Milwaukee to take the next step and reach a World Series.  Offense was a problem for the Brewers even as they had a fairly comfortable run to the NL Central title, and the issue came to a head when the Brewers scored only six runs in their four games with Atlanta.  A change has already been made at hitting coach, but some lineup reinforcements are also a must.

Looking at the more settled positions, Willy Adames, Kolten Wong, and breakout player Luis Urias all hit well in 2021 and have three of the infield spots covered.  All-Star catcher Omar Narvaez slumped badly in the second half but still finished with roughly league-average offense (99 OPS+ and wRC+) for the season, which represents a bounce-back from a brutal 2020 campaign.

Manny Pina hit well enough to make up for some of Narvaez’s late struggles, though Pina is now set for free agency after six years as a part-time starter and backup in Milwaukee.  There is enough need for catching around the league that another team could offer Pina a more regular job, though the 34-year-old could reunite with the Brewers on a new contract if Pina is comfortable in his current role.  If Pina doesn’t re-sign, the Crew will be on the hunt for a new backup catcher, preferably a right-handed hitter considering Narvaez’s lack of production against southpaws.  Prospect Mario Feliciano is also on hand, and Luke Maile could return if tendered a contract.

Eduardo Escobar is another free agent, and is less likely to return considering that Wong and Urias are slated for everyday work at second and third base.  This is another area where the Brewers will be looking for backup options, likely a utility type given the front office’s penchant for versatile players.  Retaining Jace Peterson could help in that regard, and the Brewers could pair Peterson with a right-handed hitter to provide additional coverage on the bench.

Rowdy Tellez was streaky and spent some time on the injured list, but the slugger hit well after being acquired from the Blue Jays in July, and Tellez seems to be penciled in for at least a share of the first base job.  This leaves Daniel Vogelbach as a possible non-tender candidate, as even if the National League has a DH position available in 2022, having both Tellez and Vogelbach as left-handed hitting first base-only players seems like a redundancy.  Tellez is over two years younger than Vogelbach, has an extra year of team control and had better numbers in 2020-21, though Vogelbach did miss a good chunk of last season due to injury.  All things considered, it would seem like the Brewers would favor Tellez over Vogelbach, though with only a $2MM projected salary for Vogelbach, it wouldn’t break the bank to keep him around.

A right-handed complement seems like a necessary add for the first base/DH mix, though Milwaukee is probably still hopeful that Keston Hiura can fill that role from within.  Hiura is only 25 years old and has just 791 MLB plate appearances to his name, and while the Brewers aren’t likely to give up on the former top prospect, adding a more proven veteran seems logical given how badly Hiura has struggled over the last two seasons.  Ideally, the Brewers could find a versatile player who can hit from the right side and fill in at several infield spots (i.e. Josh Harrison, Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Duffy).  If the team looked to just first base-only types, Milwaukee could be a hypothetical landing spot for Albert Pujols, as odd as it would be to see Pujols on an NL Central team besides the Cardinals.

The outfield is far less set than the infield, even if three outfield starters are technically already in place.  Jackie Bradley Jr. is coming off a rough year at the plate and is sure to exercise his $9.5MM player option for 2022 rather than test free agency.  Lorenzo Cain will return for the final year of his contract, and Christian Yelich’s contract extension will now officially begin, as 2022 is the first season of the seven years and $188.5MM in new money guaranteed under the terms of his deal.

Yelich is the biggest question, as in the two seasons since inking that extension, he’s gone from perennial MVP candidate to only slightly more than a league-average bat — his .234/.360/.392 slash line over 722 PA in 2020-21 translates to a 103 OPS+ and 105 wRC+.  Yelich is still making plenty of hard contact but his power numbers have dwindled, his strikeout rate has risen sharply, and opposing teams have been using the shift much more frequently against him, which has sapped his offensive production.

Cain is another player whose bat has gone south, hitting only .260/.328/.381 in 930 PA since the start of the 2019 season.  Cain opted out for much of the 2020 campaign and sandwiched that lost year between two injury-plagued seasons, so the Brewers simply can’t be sure of what to expect from Cain as he enters his age-36 season.  The same goes for Bradley, who was healthy last year but his offense absolutely cratered in his first year in Milwaukee.

Considering Yelich, Cain, and Bradley are the three highest-paid players on Milwaukee’s payroll, this certainly isn’t a welcome situation for a team with a fairly limited mid-market budget.  The Brew Crew has no recourse but to count on a rebound from Yelich given their long-term commitment, and since Cain and Bradley are still providing superb defense, the Brewers could just go with a Cain/Bradley platoon in center field and give the promising Tyrone Taylor a clear shot at everyday at-bats in right field.

Avisail Garcia was far and away the best hitter in Milwaukee’s 2021 outfield, but he amassed just enough plate appearances to trigger a vesting option in his contract, turning the Brewers’ $12MM club option for 2022 into a mutual option.  It can be reasonably assumed that the team would still want to retain Garcia at that price, though since mutual options are rarely agreed upon by both sides, it seems likely that Garcia will decline his end of the deal and test the free agent market in search of a longer-term commitment.

This leaves a big hole in the Brewers’ lineup, though some scenarios exist where Garcia is back in Milwaukee next year.  Assuming he opts for free agency, the Brewers could then issue a qualifying offer — Garcia might be more open to a one-year deal for an $18.4MM payday than for $12MM.  If Garcia declined the QO, the Brewers could at least recoup a compensatory draft pick if he signed elsewhere.  If Garcia accepted the QO, that puts another hefty salary on the Brewers’ books, but the team could pivot by trying to see what they could get for Cain or Bradley on the trade market.

Cain or Bradley alone would be tough sells as trade chips, unless the Brewers were to take on another team’s unpalatable contract…or if the Brewers paired one of those outfielders with a more sought-after trade asset.  You guessed it, it’s time for another offseason of Josh Hader trade speculation, and packaging the All-Star closer as part of a larger deal would be a bold way for the Crew to both clear some salary space and bring some young talent into the pipeline.

Hader delivered another excellent season, and his salary is now set to jump from $6.675MM to a projected $10MM in his third of four arbitration-eligible years.  That is still quite a reasonable sum for arguably the best reliever in baseball, yet it does represent a big portion of Milwaukee’s payroll, so the time may finally be right for the Brewers to pull the trigger on a Hader deal.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Crew would spend much to replace Hader, as Devin Williams is already the heir apparent at closer and Brent Suter had a nice year as a setup man.  The Brewers have consistently been able to score with inexpensive bullpen additions, so while Brad Boxberger and Hunter Strickland are set for free agency, the club will probably look to fill those gaps and the potential loss of Hader with other lower-level additions.

The bullpen is also supported by one of the sport’s best rotations.  Corbin Burnes will receive Cy Young Award consideration, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta weren’t too far behind, and Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, and Brett Anderson all provided quality work at the back end.  Anderson is a free agent, so Milwaukee could give youngster Aaron Ashby a longer look as a starter, or bring in another low-cost veteran hurler if Anderson himself isn’t brought back.

Hader is the priciest member of a large Milwaukee arbitration class that projects to top the $40MM threshold, even after subtracting a few non-tender candidates.  Between the arb-eligibles, the players on guaranteed contracts, and the pre-arbitration players, Roster Resource calculates around $112.4MM on the Brewers’ books for 2022.  This already represents the larger Brewers payroll since Attanasio bought the team in 2005, though in 2019 (the last pre-pandemic season), the Brew Crew’s payroll surged to over $132MM by the end of the year.

With 2022 promising to be a more normal year revenue-wise, could ownership green-light another spending bump?  Returning to even 2019’s spending levels would give Stearns some flexibility in making offseason moves, and perhaps allow a decision on Hader’s future to be held off until next winter.  In fact, all those rising arbitration costs for key pitchers could lead to more tough decisions as early as the 2022-23 offseason, so an argument can be made that this roster should be given one last chance to win a championship before the Brewers have to start thinking about parting ways with other core pieces.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll see another blockbuster move like the Cain signing or Yelich’s extension.  The Brewers have enough talent in place that just a return to form from Yelich in 2022 might be all the club needs to make more noise in the playoffs.  With no guarantee of that scenario, however, expect the team to add at least one big bat to guard against another October power outage.

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