- Miguel Sano’s return from a stress reaction in his left shin has been slow to progress, though the Twins slugger did some running drills Monday and took batting practice Tuesday, as Chad Graff of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes. If and when Sano is ready to return — which could come in the next week, per Graff — it’s likely that he’ll be back in the lineup as the designated hitter. Manager Paul Molitor told reporters that he’s more concerned about the absence of Sano’s bat from the lineup than he is about his ability to return to the hot corner. The Twins are 11-10 in Sano’s absence, Graff points out, though certainly the Twins must be eager for the return of Sano’s .267/.356/.514 batting line and 28 homers as they look to hang onto the American League’s second Wild Card slot.
Twins Rumors
Twins Designate Engelb Vielma For Assignment
The Twins announced today that they’ve selected the contract of left-handed reliever Gabriel Moya from Double-A Chattanooga and designated minor league shortstop Engelb Vielma for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.
Vielma, 23, was added to the 40-man roster last offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft despite a lack of offensive track record in the Majors. The Venezuelan native has drawn praise for defensive abilities in the past, though Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote last offseason that he may not have enough bat to even profile as a utility option. Baseball America rated him 25th among Minnesota prospects in the offseason, calling him the system’s best pure shortstop but expressing similar concerns about his offense.
Minnesota put him on the 40-man last offseason after he hit .265/.344/.310 between Class-A Advanced and Double-A, but he’s taken a step back from even that modest level of output in 2017. This year, Vielma split the season between Double-A and Triple-A, where he batted .229/.273/.280 through 455 plate appearances.
The 22-year-old Moya has posted video-game numbers in Double-A this year, working to a combined 0.77 ERA with 13.4 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 with a ground-ball rate of about 41 percent through 58 1/3 innings between two organizations. Acquired from Arizona in late July for catcher John Ryan Murphy, Moya would have been added to the 40-man this winter as well, so this move will just give Minnesota an earlier chance to evaluate him for a future role.
Added To The 40-Man Roster: Arano, Moya
A couple of 40-man additions to kick things off Tuesday morning…
- The Phillies will add not only Henderson Alvarez to the 40-man roster — as was reported yesterday — but also right-hander Victor Arano, according to CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury (Twitter link). The hard-throwing 22-year-old, who ranks 27th on MLB.com’s list of the Phillies’ top 30 prospects, spent the season pitching against older competition with Double-A Reading and posted a 4.19 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 38.9 percent ground-ball rate. MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo note in their free report on him that a move to the bullpen in 2017 and a focus on his slider as his primary breaking pitch have both allowed Arano’s stuff to play up in the bullpen. Arano needed to be added to the 40-man this winter anyhow in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, so the Phils will add him a bit earlier and take a few looks at him against MLB pitching down the stretch. He opened the year with an arm injury — reportedly a sprained UCL — but made his way back to toss 38 2/3 innings this season.
- The Twins look set to add lefty reliever Gabriel Moya to their 40-man roster. Venezuelan journalist Dessiree Castro tweeted that Moya was promoted to the Majors, and Moya’s former pitching coach in the D-backs’ minor league system did the same. Moya rated at the back-end of the Twins’ top 30 at MLB.com before the trades of Jaime Garcia and Brandon Kintzler added a couple of new names to that list. The 22-year-old has posted video-game numbers in Double-A this year, working to a combined 0.77 ERA with 13.4 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 with a ground-ball rate of about 41 percent through 58 1/3 innings. Acquired from Arizona in late July for catcher John Ryan Murphy, Moya would have been added to the 40-man this winter as well, so this move will just give Minnesota an earlier chance to evaluate him for a future role.
Free Agents That Have Boosted Their Stock On One-Year Deals
With the offseason looming, it’s easy to focus on the top free agents this winter will have to offer. We at MLBTR reinforce that line of thinking with monthly Free Agent Power Rankings that profile the top names slated to hit the open market and ranking them in terms of earning power.
Settling for a one-year contract isn’t an ideal route for most free agents, but that doesn’t mean that those (relative) bargain pickups can’t bring significant on-field impact to the teams with which they sign. While none of the players on this list received all that much fanfare when signing, they’ve all provided some notable benefit to the teams that made these commitments:
- Kurt Suzuki, $1.5MM, Braves: Suzuki languished in free agency for several months as players like Jason Castro, Matt Wieters and Welington Castillo all generated more attention from teams and fans. However, it might be Suzuki that has provided the most bang for buck on last winter’s catching market. The 33-year-old has had a surprising career year in Atlanta, hitting .266/.344/.507 with 15 homers to date. Some have been quick to suggest that Atlanta’s new homer-happy stadium has benefited Suzuki, and while that may be true to an extent, he’s hit for more power on the road than at home. He’s put himself in position for a possible two-year deal this winter, but if he has to settle for one yet again, it should come at a higher rate.
- Adam Lind, $1.5MM, Nationals: An awful 2016 season and an overcrowded market for corner bats created some questions about whether Lind would have to settle for a minor league contract late last winter. He ultimately secured a guaranteed deal, but it came with just a $1MM base and a $500K buyout of a mutual option. For that meager commitment, he’s given the Nats 267 plate appearances with a .297/.352/.490 slash to go along with 11 homers. Like Suzuki, that might not land him a starting role, but it could land him multiple years as a complementary bench piece.
- Chris Iannetta, $1.5MM, Diamondbacks: Iannetta has not only rediscovered his power stroke in 2017 — he’s made it better than ever. The 34-year-old’s .249 ISO is a career best, and he’s slugged 14 homers. While that’s still four shy of his career-best with the 2008 Rockies, Iannetta’s 14 big flies this year have come in just 272 PAs, whereas he needed 407 to reach 18 back in ’08. He’s also bounced back from a down year in the framing department and been above average in that regard, per Baseball Prospectus.
- Jhoulys Chacin and Clayton Richard, $1.75MM each, Padres: The Friars signed four starters for $3MM or less last winter — Jered Weaver and Trevor Cahill being the others — and have received a combined 345 innings out of this pair. Chacin’s run-prevention (4.06 ERA) and strikeout rate (7.44 K/9) have been better, while Richard has 13 more innings (179 total), superior control (2.6 BB/9) and superior ground-ball tendencies (59.1 percent). Neither is going to be mistaken for much more than a back-of-the-rotation stabilizer, but both have done enough to garner larger commitments on the upcoming open market.
- Brian Duensing, $2MM, Cubs: I doubt I was alone in being surprised to see Duensing, 34, land a Major League deal last winter on the heels of a lackluster season in the Orioles organization. Duensing, though, has quietly been outstanding for the Cubs. In 54 2/3 innings, he’s logged a career-high 9.05 K/9 rate with 2.30 BB/9 and a 47 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.63 ERA. He’s held lefties in check reasonably well, but the first time in his career he’s also striking out right-handed batters at a lofty rate. In fact, the .211/.276/.317 that righties have posted against him is actually weaker than the .256/.300/.388 slash to which he’s limited left-handed bats.
- Matt Belisle, $2.05MM, Twins: Belisle’s inclusion is arguable; he’s posted a pedestrian 4.36 ERA with 8.55 K/9, 3.69 BB/9 and a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are largely skewed by a putrid month of May, however. Since June 3, Belisle has a 2.25 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning and improved control and ground-ball tendencies — all while stepping into higher and higher leverage roles. He’s now serving as the Twins’ closer and has a 1.54 ERA with a 29-to-5 K/BB ratio since July 1. He’ll be 38 next season, so the earning power here isn’t sky-high, but he’s probably earned a raise, barring a late collapse.
- Logan Morrison, $2.5MM, Rays: Few players have benefited more from one-year, “pillow” contracts in recent memory than Morrison, who has parlayed his $2.5MM deal into a .248/.355/.529 batting line and a 36-homer season campaign to date. Morrison only just turned 30 years old, so he’ll have age on his side this winter as well. A three- or four-year deal seems plausible for Morrison even with the diminished recent market for corner bats.
- Alex Avila, $2.5MM, Tigers: Avila hasn’t been as excellent with the Cubs as he was with the Tigers, but he’s still among the league leaders in hard contact and exit velocity — both of which have beautifully complemented his always-terrific walk rate (15.9 percent in 2016). With 14 homers under his belt and a batting line that grades out roughly 25 percent better than the league average, per context-neutral metrics like OPS+ (124) and wRC+ (127), Avila could vie for a multi-year deal and/or a starting job this offseason.
- Joe Smith, $3MM, Blue Jays: Smith’s K/9 has nearly doubled, from 6.92 in 2016 to 11.86 in 2017, and he’s posted a dramatically improved 1.82 BB/9 this year as well. Smith has also served up just three homers in 49 1/3 innings of work, and his 3.10 ERA, while solid, is actually representative of some poor fortune in the estimation of fielding-independent metrics (1.97 FIP, 2.35 xFIP, 2.34 SIERA). He’ll be 34 next year but should top that $3MM mark and could net the second multi-year free-agent deal of his career.
- Andrew Cashner, $10MM, Rangers: MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently took a more in-depth look at Cashner, noting that his strong 3.19 ERA isn’t backed up by his K/BB numbers. Cashner’s complete lack of missed bats — he has the lowest swinging-strike rate and second-lowest K/9 rate of qualified MLB starters — is going to limit his earning power. But, he’s undeniably been better than he was in 2016, his velocity is comparable to last season and he’s limited hard contact quite well. A multi-year deal is certainly a possibility this offseason.
- Carlos Gomez, $11.5MM, Rangers: Gomez’s production hasn’t reached the star levels it did in 2013-14, but he’s been a better performer at the plate this season. A spike in his OBP (from .298 to .337) is due largely to a massive increase in the number of pitches by which he’s been hit, which is less encouraging than if he’d upped his walk rate considerably. However, Gomez has also shown quite a bit more power in 2017 than he had in recent seasons (.208 ISO in ’17 vs. .153 in ’15-16 combined), and Defensive Runs Saved feels he’s improved in center field as well. Gomez won’t see the massive payday he looked to be on pace for after 2014, but he’s still young enough to notch a multi-year deal this winter.
Notable exceptions: Neither Welington Castillo nor Greg Holland is included on this list, though both have provided good value to their new teams (Castillo in particular). While their contracts are often referred to as one-year deals with a player option, that type of contract is no more a one-year deal than Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal with a third-year opt-out is a three-year deal. Both players were guaranteed the possibility to be under contract for two years, and those agreements are considered two-year deals for the purposes of this list.
Jerry Blevins has also given the Mets terrific value on his one-year, $6.5MM deal, but the club option attached to that deal is a veritable lock to be exercised, so he’s unlikely to hit the free-agent market again following the season.
Hector Santiago Likely Done For Year
- Twins manager Paul Molitor told reporters Friday that left-hander Hector Santiago is likely done for the season (via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). Santiago, who hasn’t taken a major league mound since July 2 because of a shoulder strain, threw just 84 mph to 87 mph in a Triple-A rehab start Sunday (down from his usual low-90s velocity) and is undergoing further testing in Minnesota, according to Bollinger. With his contract set to expire at season’s end, the 29-year-old Santiago may be done as a Twin. Formerly a capable starter with the White Sox and Angels, Santiago has posted unsightly numbers – including a 5.61 ERA and a 28.4 percent groundball rate – over 131 2/3 innings since the Twins acquired him from Los Angeles last summer.
Twins Likely Done With September Call-Ups
- Jake Depue of 1500 ESPN spoke to Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey this week about top pitching prospects Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero and the progress that the pair made in 2017. While there’d been some speculation that Gonsalves could join the team in September, Falvey hinted at some inconsistencies following a promotion to Triple-A Rochester. “We’ve seen some really good outings from him,” said Falvey. “…We’ve also seen probably the natural fatigue that a pitcher goes through late in the year, and he’s had some of those outings too.” Falvey ultimately acknowledged that the team felt Triple-A was “the best environment” for Gonsalves, with whom the team will be careful from a developmental standpoint. Indeed, Twins manager Paul Molitor told reporters prior to Thursday night’s game that the team was likely done making September call-ups (Twitter link via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com).
Twins Select Tonkin's Contract, Place Chargois On 60-Day DL
- The Twins announced that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Michael Tonkin and created space by recalling righty J.T. Chargois from Triple-A and placing him on the Major League 60-day disabled list. The 27-year-old Tonkin was once one of the more promising bullpen prospects in the Twins’ system, but he’s underwhelmed in numerous auditions over the past few years. Minnesota outrighted him earlier this year, but he’s back after pitching to a brilliant 1.73 ERA with 13.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 45.5 percent ground-ball rate in 41 2/3 innings with Triple-A Rochester. Chargois posted video game numbers between Double-A and Triple-A last year and was viewed as a potential option in 2017, but he’s missed most of the year with a right elbow impingement.
Falvey On Twins' Trade Deadline Moves
- Twins GM Derek Falvey spoke with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic about his team’s interesting summer (subscription required and recommended). The rookie front-office man says that the club’s mid-July pivot, in which it acquired and then traded away Jaime Garcia and also shipped out Brandon Kintzler, led to some clubhouse disappointment. But, he says, “the front office had a plan for the long term.” Of course, Minnesota’s players have made a pivot of their own ever since, surging into Wild Card position.
Injury Notes: Wright, Cueto, Kershaw, Wood, Ethier, Sano, Ramirez, Bailey
Though he is now dealing with yet another setback and has not appeared in the majors since May of last year, Mets third baseman David Wright is not considering retiring, a source tells Mike Puma of the New York Post. A lingering shoulder injury is the most immediate problem limiting Wright, though he has also dealt with significant neck and back issues that he’ll continue to battle in the future. With three years and $47MM left on his contract, Wright will evidently keep trying to make it back to the majors, though at present it is unclear what course he’ll take in trying to overcome his maladies.
Here’s more on some other injury situations from around the game:
- Giants righty Johnny Cueto said he feels ready to return to the majors, as Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area writes. He has taken two rehab starts in his bid to return from a flexor strain that has kept him out of action since mid-July. That injury seemingly makes it quite likely that Cueto will elect not to opt out of the remaining four years and $84MM of his contract this fall. Cueto seemingly acknowledged that, saying that his “whole mentality has been for me to stay here,” though he also noted that’ll be a decision that’s made in consultation with his agent at season’s end.
- The Dodgers are set to welcome back a pair of key southpaws later this week, as Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links). Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to pitch Friday, with Alex Wood taking the ball on Sunday. Kershaw has been out since late July, making for the second-straight year in which he has missed significant time due to back issues. Wood’s DL stint has been of a shorter duration, with the belief being that his SC joint inflammation is something that can be managed rather than a symptom of a more significant problem. Needless to say, both are critical to the team’s ever-rising postseason expectations. The Dodgers are also awaiting a return from yet another starter, righty Brandon McCarthy, who has been out with a finger blister. As Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets, the right-hander’s scheduled rehab start this week has been bumped, so his status is unclear at the moment.
- Also nearing his return to the Dodgers is veteran outfielder Andre Ethier, as Plunkett further reports on Twitter. The club will make a move after rosters expand at the start of September. The 35-year-old faces an uncertain playing-time situation, to be sure. Los Angeles just added a left-handed-hitting veteran outfielder in Curtis Granderson and now features Adrian Gonzalez as a southpaw-swinging bench bat. Ethier has missed the entire season to date with a herniated disc in his back. He’ll almost certainly hit the open market after this year, receiving a $2.5MM buyout if (likely, when) the team declines a $17.5MM club option. Despite his many recent medical problems, there ought to be some market if Ethier can show he’s healthy in September; after all, as recently as 2015 he was a productive hitter (.294/.366/.486 over 445 plate appearances).
- While the Twins are currently pacing the pack for the second American League Wild Card spot, the team has gone without key slugger Miguel Sano. While he does seem to be improving from what has been called a “stress reaction” to his left shin, writes MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger, Sano still hasn’t begun running or fielding. Manager Paul Molitor says things are “moving rather slowly” for the third baseman. Sano, 24, has turned in 475 plate appearances of .267/.356/.514 hitting with 28 home runs on the year, meaning the team is going without a middle-of-the-order bat that isn’t really replaceable. Given the nature of his injury, though, there’s likely not much that can be done but hope that he responds to treatment.
- The Angels are awaiting news from a re-examination of right-hander J.C. Ramirez after he underwent a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right elbow, Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Ramirez, 29, had settled into a starting role for the club, providing 147 1/3 innings of 4.15 ERA ball to a rotation that badly needed it. That sets him up fairly well as a possible Super Two candidate; it remains to be seen whether Ramirez will qualify for arbitration after entering the year with 1.139 years of service. Given that he only just underwent that injection, though, it seems optimistic to expect that he’ll make it back to the mound in 2017.
- Meanwhile, fellow Angels righty Andrew Bailey is giving up any attempts to return in the present season, Moura further reports on Twitter. He will, however, attempt to get his shoulder back to health in order to return in 2018. Bailey had shown well for the Halos in a late-season stint last year and re-signed with the club for $1MM over the winter, but has managed only four major-league frames on the year. He’s set to return to the open market at the end of the season.
Joe Nathan To Formally Announce Retirement
Six-time All-Star Joe Nathan will formally announce his retirement in a press conference at Target Field on Friday, the Twins announced. The Twins will not only host Nathan’s press conference, they’ll honor arguably the best reliever in franchise history in a pregame ceremony prior to Friday’s game against the Royals.
Nathan, 42, broke into the Majors as a 24-year-old with the Giants in 1999, but he didn’t establish himself as a quality big league reliever until his age-28 season in San Francisco. Few would’ve predicted that he’d go on to solidify himself as one of the best relievers on the planet in the years to come, but the Twins were the beneficiary of Nathan’s late-blooming right arm. Minnesota acquired Nathan, Francisco Liriano and right-hander Boof Bonser from the Giants in exchange for the final year of A.J. Pierzynski’s contract in a swap that would help to serve as a foundational move for a sustained run of division contenders in the final years of the Metrodome in Minneapolis.
Nathan spent eight years in a Twins uniform (though his 2010 season was lost to Tommy John surgery), during which time he posted a sensational 2.16 ERA with averages of 10.9 strikeouts and 2.6 walks per nine innings pitched. From 2004-09, in particular, Nathan dominated to the tune of a 1.87 ERA with an average of 41 saves per season. Overall, Nathan saved 260 games for the Twins from 2004-11, helping Minnesota to the postseason in 2004, 2006 and 2009 (in addition to a Game 163 playoff against the White Sox in 2008).
Following his time in Minnesota, he enjoyed two excellent seasons with the Rangers before signing one last significant contract: a two-year deal with the Tigers. Nathan struggled in his first season in Detroit, then missed nearly the entire second season of that pact due to another Tommy John surgery.
Undeterred by another UCL tear at the age of 40, Nathan rehabbed his elbow and worked his way back to the big leagues at the tail end of the 2016 season, tossing a combined 6 1/3 scoreless innings for the Cubs and the Giants. He inked a minor league deal with the Nationals this winter but wasn’t able to crack the team’s big league roster in Spring Training. After two months pitching for Washington’s Triple-A affiliate, Nathan requested his release.
Nathan’s career will officially come to a close with a 64-34 record and 377 saves. He’ll retire with a lifetime 2.87 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, roughly 27 wins above replacement under his belt (per rWAR and RA9-WAR) and more than $86MM in career earnings. Twins fans will remember Nathan for his quirks on the mound, his leadership on the pitching staff and one of the most prolonged stretches of dominance of any pitcher in Twins history. Congratulations to Joe on an outstanding career.
