NL West Notes: Padres, Hughes, Stripling, Duplantier
The Padres‘ acquisition of Phil Hughes was clearly more about acquiring the Twins‘ competitive balance draft pick than the pitcher himself, and GM A.J. Preller and scouting director Mark Conner spoke to MLB.com’s A.J Cassavell about the swap. Preller told Cassavell that he’s been calling every team that received pick in the competitive balance lottery on a near-weekly basis in an attempt to acquire an additional selection — something that’s long been a priority but was magnified in 2018 after San Diego surrendered a pick to sign Eric Hosmer. “The game now is about making your money work for you,” said Preller. “…You have to figure out what’s the best bang for your buck. Having the extra pick gives you more options.”
The move was met by excitement from Conner and his scouts, who’ll now not only have an extra pick (No. 74 overall) but an additional $812,200 in their draft pool. The Padres, of course, spent considerably more than that to obtain the pick, relieving the Twins of just over $7.6MM of Hughes’ salary. While it seems a shrewd (albeit expensive) pickup of a resource with limited availability, not every organization agrees; one exec from another club told FanRag’s Jon Heyman last week that the Padres were “insane” for taking on that much of the remaining contract to obtain the pick.
More from the division…
- Ross Stripling, who looks to be in the midst of a breakout season with the Dodgers, spoke to Pedro Moura of The Athletic about the role that data and analytics have played in his emergence (subscription required). The 28-year-old righty has turned in a ridiculous 1.68 ERA with 11.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.56 HR/9 and a 47.6 percent ground-ball rate in 48 1/3 innings for the Dodgers so far in 2018. Stripling’s success is derived in large part from advance scouting of opposing lineups and taking deep dives into hitters’ strengths and weaknesses. Specifically, Stripling discusses the importance of knowing the quality of contact a hitter will make against pitch types in various portions of the strike zone. “I don’t care about average,” said Stripling. “I just want to know where he pulls the ball at 100 mph. I’m a believer in limiting slug, which is basically limiting exit velocity.” Moura’s column takes a long look not only at Stripling’s sudden success, but also his amateur days, his childhood fascination with baseball statistics and his path to professional baseball.
- The D-backs have had rotten luck with injuries at the big league level in 2018, and it’s apparently extending to the farm system as well. Zach Buchanan of The Athletic tweets that the team’s top prospect, right-hander Jon Duplantier, is dealing with biceps tendinitis and has been shut down from throwing for at least a week. The 23-year-old Duplantier has dominated in Double-A this year, working to a 2.52 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9 and a 59.8 percent ground-ball rate in 35 2/3 innings. He’s currently ranked as the game’s No. 50 overall prospect over at Baseball America and No. 65 overall at MLB.com.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Brian Dozier
Twins star Brian Dozier entered 2018 off an extraordinary three-year stretch of power hitting for a second baseman. Dozier combined for 104 home runs during that 2,100-plate appearance span, including 42 in 2016 – an American League record at his position. Although Dozier became a household name because of his ability to hit the ball over the fence, he has been a well-rounded player since his first full season (2013), evidenced by the 22.2 rWAR/21.7 fWAR he racked up between then and this year.
Dozier’s recent excellence has come under the team-friendly extension he signed as a less established player heading into the 2015 season. That contract – a four-year, $20MM pact – has been one of the biggest bargains in baseball lately, but unfortunately for the Twins, it’s on the cusp of expiring. Dozier is now two-plus months into the last year of his deal, and indications are that he’ll test the open market after the season. The 31-year-old made it clear over the winter that he was interested in an extension – “I’ve said I wanted to stay here since forever, but I’ve really vocalized it the last couple years,” he declared – but the Twins didn’t reciprocate and talks on a new deal died.
Because he hasn’t been able to secure another long-term accord from the Twins, Dozier is now trying to prove to them and other teams that he’ll be worth a significant investment in the coming months. But unfortunately for Dozier, his platform year hasn’t begun in ideal fashion. With a .241/.313/.420 batting line in 249 PAs, Dozier’s offensive production has been 3 percent below average, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He was an above-average hitter in each of the previous four seasons, including when he recorded his two highest wRC+ figures – 131 and 125 – in 2016 and ’17.
Encouragingly, Dozier’s walking at a 9.2 percent clip (in line with a career 9.4 mean) and striking out less than he did in previous years. He has fanned 18.1 percent of the time, which is both better than the ever-increasing league rate (22.4 percent) and his career mark (19.4). Dozier’s also chasing less than ever, having registered a 22.6 percent out-of-zone swing rate that easily outdoes his lifetime figure (27.8).
Dozier’s offensive game clearly isn’t devoid of positive signs, then, though there has been cause for alarm when he has put the bat on the ball. He has only hit eight homers thus far, to go with an ISO (.179) that has declined substantially from the .238 mark he combined for from 2015-17. Further, Dozier’s line drive percentage is at a personal-worst 14.4 – compared to 19.9 during his career – and after averaging a 94.4 mph exit velocity on liners last season, Dozier’s at 91.4 this year. Thanks in part to that, not to mention an increase in grounders, Dozier’s percentage of balls hit at least 95 mph has fallen from 34.5 percent in 2017 to 28.1 this season. Dozier currently ranks toward the bottom of the majors in those Statcast metrics (via Baseball Savant), making it no surprise that he has only registered a .303 xwOBA and a .267 batting average on balls in play to this point. While Dozier’s BABIP is close to his career total (.276), it’s a far cry from the personal high (.300) he put up in that department last year.
When Dozier’s contact has eluded defenders this year, he hasn’t been nearly the threat on the base paths that he was in previous seasons. Dozier collected anywhere from 12 to 21 steals in each year from 2013-17, and he entered the campaign with a career success rate near 76 percent. But Dozier has only converted on two of four attempts in 2018, perhaps in part because he’s not as fleet of foot as he had been. Dozier’s average sprint speed is 26.8 feet per second, per Statcast, placing him just below the league mean (27) and down from the slightly above-average marks he managed in each of the three prior seasons.
Dozier’s production at the plate and on the bases does warrant some concern, but his defensive numbers look normal so far. Dozier had essentially been a scratch defender from 2012-17, according to both Defensive Runs Saved (three) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-0.3), and that has also been the case in 2018 (two DRS, minus-1.5 UZR). And Dozier’s impressive durability has once again been on display, as he hasn’t missed any of the Twins’ 54 games after amassing between 147 and 157 appearances in each of the previous five seasons.
Dozier’s outstanding track record of availability will undoubtedly appeal to teams as he seeks another payday in the coming months, though he won’t max out his earning potential at his current offensive pace. There’s time for Dozier to turn it around at the plate, of course, and it’s especially important for him to do so given the competition he could face on the market. As things stand, there will be no shortage of veteran second basemen available in free agency, including DJ LeMahieu, Daniel Murphy and Asdrubal Cabrera. Thanks to that fact – not to mention Dozier’s age, the unkind way free agency has been trending for 30-somethings and the potential of a qualifying offer hanging over his head – his first trip to the market may come at an inopportune time.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Twins Put Buxton Back On DL With Fractured Toe, Halt Santana’s Rehab Program
The Twins delivered some unfortunate injury news to reporters today, revealing that center fielder Byron Buxton is headed back to the disabled list due to his fractured big toe and that Ervin Santana‘s rehab assignment has been halted due to ongoing discomfort in his surgically repaired finger (Twitter links via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com and Dan Hayes of The Athletic). Buxton will have his toe re-examined, while Santana will be examined by a specialist.
It’s been a dismal season for Buxton, who landed on the DL in mid-April for what the club hoped would be a minimal stay due to ongoing migraine issues. Instead, Buxton fouled a ball into his foot on his rehab assignment and sustained a fractured toe which has plagued him since.
Though a six-week timetable for the foot to heal completely was provided, the Twins made the surprising decision to activate Buxton from that DL trip without sending him on a minor league rehab assignment. 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson tweets that today’s decision to place Buxton back on the DL stems from the fact that he’s simply been in too much pain to use his lower half at the plate.
Overall, Buxton has turned in a brutal .159/.187/.205 slash this season, and he’s gone just 6-for-47 since coming off the disabled list and trying to play through the fractured toe. That, obviously, is a far cry from what looked to be a breakout year for Buxton in 2017, when he batted .253/.314/.413 with 16 homers and 29 steals while winning Gold Glove and Platinum Glove honors for his work in the outfield.
[Related: Updated Minnesota Twins depth chart]
With Buxton on the shelf, the Twins will have a number of options to handle center field duties. Ryan LaMarre is currently on the big league roster and can see some time at the position, though both of the Twins’ primary corner outfielders, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, are also capable of playing center field.
The news on Santana is equally if not more disheartening for a Twins club that had hoped to get its primary rotation anchor back in the near future. The 35-year-old Santana underwent surgery on his middle finger in February and had been hopeful of returning at some point in May or in early June, but it seems he’ll now need a new wave of testing and could see his season debut delayed quite a bit further.
Since signing with the Twins on a four-year, $55MM deal, Santana has turned in 500 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He was especially effective in 2016-17, logging a 3.32 ERA with 7.2 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 (though fielding-independent metrics indicated that he had a fair bit of good fortune on his side over that span). With Santana now sidelined indefinitely, the Twins will continue to lean on Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and impressive rookie Fernando Romero in the rotation for the time being.
Minor MLB Transactions: 5/29/18
Here are Tuesday’s minor moves from around the league…
- The Indians announced that they’ve acquired right-hander Myles Jaye from the Twins in exchange for cash. He’ll join the rotation for Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate in Columbus, per the announcement. The 26-year-old Jaye made his MLB debut with the Tigers last season but was rocked for 17 earned runs on 18 hits and 10 walks in 12 2/3 innings at the MLB level. Jaye, a former 17th-round pick (Blue Jays, 2010), has a solid track record of preventing runs at the Triple-A level (3.81 ERA, 141 2/3 innings). He’s off to a decent start in Triple-A this year, having pitched to a 4.25 ERA in 42 1/3 frames — albeit with a middling 19-to-15 K/BB ratio in that time. With Adam Plutko and Shane Bieber emerging as rotation options at the MLB level, the addition of Jaye will give the Cleveland organization some additional depth.
- The White Sox have signed left-hander Jairo Labourt, per an announcement from the team’s Double-A affiliate (hat tip: The Athletic’s James Fegan, on Twitter). The lefty has bounced all over the league since being designated for assignment by the Tigers in March when the team signed Francisco Liriano. Labourt went from Detroit to Cincinnati to Oakland via waivers before being released by the A’s, after which he returned to the Tigers. He didn’t pitch for a Tigers affiliate this year, though, before once again being cut loose. Labourt, once a fairly well-regarded prospect who went from Toronto to Detroit as part of the David Price blockbuster, has developed some alarming control issues over the past year. In 28 innings between Triple-A and the Majors last year, Labourt walked 30 batters.
AL Notes: Ervin, Lincecum, Beltre, Moustakas
Twins righty Ervin Santana will continue his rehab assignment with a start today at the High-A level, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press tweets, after throwing 45 pitches in his first outing.* Santana has spent the first two months of the season on the mend from finger surgery, but is now ramping up in earnest in advance of a return to the MLB mound. The 35-year-old has turned in two-straight excellent campaigns in Minnesota and will be looked to for a boost again this year. Santana’s ultimate return could create some interesting rotation questions for the Twins. Veteran Lance Lynn has lagged Kyle Gibson and eye-opening youngster Fernando Romero in output thus far, so it’s tough to guess how the club will create an opening when Santana is ready. Of course, there’s still time for the picture to change in the interim.
Here’s more from the American League:
- The Rangers still aren’t ready to promote veteran righty Tim Lincecum to the MLB roster, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets. Though he’s now eligible to return from the DL, Lincecum will remain on his rehab assignment for at least a while longer. The thirty-day limit expires on June 5th, so a decision point is coming soon on a player who signed a $1MM contract during Spring Training. Through 9 2/3 minor-league frames, Lincecum has allowed eight earned runs with a 10:7 K/BB ratio.
- In a mailbag, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan provides some answers to a variety of questions facing a disappointing Rangers ballclub. Of particular interest, he argues that “the odds seem high” that the club won’t deal away veteran third baseman Adrian Beltre. Though he’d surely be of interest to contenders, so long as he can get back to health and show well in advance of the deadline, Beltre is also still highly valued by the Texas organization despite the fact that he’s a pending free agent. Sullivan notes that, while Beltre’s future intentions aren’t yet known, it’s also quite possible that the future Hall-of-Famer will continue playing for at least one more season. It’s worth wondering whether the Rangers will attempt to keep the respected veteran around for 2019.
- Rustin Dodd of The Athletic examines the aftermath of a disappointing free agency for Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas in an interesting subscription piece. It certainly seems that the veteran has adopted a rather sunny outlook, focusing on the many positives in his life rather than dwelling on the fact he was unable to secure yet more money over a longer term. As Dodd explores, that strikes a bit of a different note for a player noted for his fire. Some teammates feel the 29-year-old Moustakas was “screwed” in a funky market this winter, but it seems he’s making the best of the situation. Certainly, with a .275/.329/.502 slash through 228 plate appearances, he has done all he can to this point to set himself for a second crack at free agency.
*An earlier version of this post mistakenly indicated that this would be Santana’s first rehab outing.
Twins Claim Taylor Motter
The Twins have claimed infielder Taylor Motter off waivers from the Mariners, per announcements from both teams. Motter will report to the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate.
Motter, whom the Mariners designated on Sunday, will now join his third major league organization. Motter debuted with the Rays in 2016 and has since racked up 390 plate appearances at the game’s highest level. While Motter hasn’t hit much (.198/.269/.326), he has done his best to offset a lack of offense with defensive versatility. The 28-year-old is primarily a shortstop, but he has also totaled at least 10 games’ experience at every corner position and second base.
Motter has spent most of this season at Triple-A, and given that he has an option remaining, he’s able to serve as minors depth without issue. But it’s possible he’ll eventually get an opportunity at short in Minnesota, where starter Ehire Adrianza has been woeful at the plate.
Padres Acquire Phil Hughes
4:51pm: $7.25MM is the precise sum, Jon Heyman of FanRag hears.
1:54pm: The Padres will pick up approximately $7.5MM of Hughes’ contract, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets.
1:05pm: The Padres have acquired right-hander Phil Hughes, cash and the 74th pick in June’s draft from the Twins for young catcher Janigson Villalobos, per announcements from both teams.
The Twins designated Hughes for assignment earlier this week, even though they still owed him the rest of his $13.2MM salary this year and another $13.2MM in 2019. Now, Minnesota will eat the remainder of Hughes’ salary this year, but San Diego will pay nearly half the tab next season, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com suggests.
In a best-case scenario for the rebuilding Padres, the 31-year-old Hughes would reemerge as a viable starter or reliever with the club. However, there doesn’t seem to be much hope on either front, given that Hughes has recently undergone two different surgeries to address thoracic outlet syndrome – which is often a death knell for pitchers. Those procedures ended each of Hughes’ previous two seasons prematurely, and have played a role in the bloated 5.99 ERA he has logged across 124 2/3 innings (33 appearances, 22 starts) since 2016.
While Hughes is certainly the eye-catching name in this trade, acquiring the pick in Competitive Balance Round B is the greater boon for San Diego. The Padres now have four of the draft’s top 85 choices, including Nos. 7 and 38, with which to add to an already deep farm system. The Friars’ newest selection carries a slot value of $812,200, and adding it will help make up for the pick they lost when they signed free-agent first baseman Eric Hosmer in the offseason.
Villalobos, a Venezuela native, immigrated to the United States when he signed a deal with the Padres in March 2016. He went on to post a .253/.408/.322 line in 233 plate appearances at the Rookie level from 2016-17, though the 21-year-old hasn’t played anywhere this season. He’ll suit up for the Rookie level Gulf Coast Twins when their season begins.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Twins Release Brock Stassi
The Twins have released first baseman/outfielder Brock Stassi, per Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (via Twitter). His roster spot at Triple-A Rochester will got to just-acquired slugger Chris Carter.
Stassi, 28, crafted a nice story when he earned a roster spot out of camp with the Phillies last year. But he failed to succeed in his first crack at the big leagues, slashing just .167/.278/.295 in his ninety plate appearances. On the positive side, Stassi drew a dozen walks to go with his 22 strikeouts.
The left-handed hitter had wielded quite a productive bat in the upper minors prior to his first taste of the majors. But he fell off badly upon returning to Triple-A last year and has carried that poor performance into 2018. Since signing on with the Minnesota organization, Stassi carries only a .211/.316/.316 slash in 133 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors.
AL Central Notes: Sano, Giolito, Tigers
The Twins announced Thursday that they’ve reinstated Miguel Sano from the disabled list after a 24-game absence due to a hamstring strain. Outfielder Jake Cave, whom the team acquired in a spring swap with the Yankees, has been optioned back to Triple-A Rochester to clear a spot on the active roster for the slugging third baseman. Sano played a five-game rehab assignment in Rochester and homered twice, showing the club enough to bring him back to the big league roster. Eduardo Escobar has filled in ably at the hot corner (.261/.313/.478 in Sano’s absence), though by plugging Sano back into the lineup, Escobar can shift back over to shortstop and push light-hitting defensive specialist Ehire Adrianza (.220/.287/.297 this year) back into a utility role. Minnesota is three games below .500 but sits just two games out of first place in what has been a feeble AL Central division so far in 2018.
More from the division…
- The White Sox aren’t giving much consideration to sending Lucas Giolito to the minors despite his substantial struggles to this point in the year, manager Rick Renteria told reporters after today’s loss (link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). “He’s just a young man who’s gotta continue to minimize the emotional aspect of crossing from preparation into the game and staying focused, relaxed, and hammer the zone with strikes,” Renteria said of the struggling Giolito, who was rocked for seven runs in 1 1/3 innings earlier today and now has a 7.53 ERA with more walks (34) than strikeouts (27) in 47 2/3 innings. Renteria said he doesn’t consider the struggles of Giolito and recently optioned teammate Carson Fulmer to be similar, noting that Giolito has been able to pitch into the sixth and seventh innings with greater frequency.
- The Tigers did well in finding bargain minor league free agents in an offseason in which the front office was limited by budgetary restrictions, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. McCosky notes that AGM David Chadd, in particular (with help from the scouting and analytics staffs), was tasked with identifying some six-year minor league free agent pickups, leading to acquisitions of players like right-hander Louis Coleman and infielder Niko Goodrum, each of whom has contributed in the Majors so far. As the 32-year-old Coleman explains to McCosky, he was uncertain he’d even get a chance to play this offseason after receiving little interest, and he ultimately had to earn a spot on the Triple-A roster after signing a minor league deal that didn’t have an invite to big league camp. Coleman allowed just four runs with a 15-to-5 K/BB ratio and eight saves in Triple-A before being added to the big league roster, and he’s since turned in seven shutout innings in the big leagues. Goodrum, meanwhile, isn’t getting on base much (.308) but has shown unexpected pop and filled in around the diamond at multiple positions. While the success of each player has come in a small sample of work, they, along with a slate of veterans in Triple-A Toledo, are ably holding down roster spots and performing fairly well while the organization’s younger players progress toward the system’s upper levels and, eventually, the Major Leagues.
Twins Acquire Chris Carter
7:47PM: The Angels received cash considerations for Carter, Mike Berardino tweets.
6:26PM: The Twins have acquired first baseman Chris Carter from the Angels, as reported by Steve Klauke, radio broadcaster for the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate in Salt Lake City. Chris Carter will report to the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate in Rochester, as per Nate Rowan from the Rochester PR department (Twitter link).
Carter will provide Minnesota with some additional first base/DH depth in the upper minors while Joe Mauer is on the Major League DL with a neck strain and concussion symptoms. The Twins have Logan Morrison at first with Robbie Grossman getting the bulk of DH at-bats, though Kennys Vargas is struggling (.614 OPS though 153 PA) for Rochester.
It was just back in 2016 that Carter led the National League in homers after hitting 41 dingers for the Brewers as part of a .222/.321/.499 season for Milwaukee. That home run total inflated Carter’s potential arbitration price, however, and with the then-rebuilding Brewers wary of committing a hefty salary (MLBTR projected him to earn $8.1MM) for a player with such a one-dimensional game, Carter found himself non-tendered. He signed on with the Yankees but then badly struggled, hitting just .201/.284/.370 in 208 PA in pinstripes last season before being released.
Carter caught on with the A’s on a minor league deal last summer, and while he didn’t return to the Show, his subsequent success at Triple-A with the A’s and Angels has given some indication that he can still be a productive bat. He has 22 homers over his last 322 PA at the Triple-A level, and was hitting .255/.333/.600 over 168 PA with Salt Lake City this season.
As per the terms of Carter’s original minor league deal with the Angels, he will earn $1.75MM if he reaches the Twins’ 25-man roster at any point this season, with another $600K available in incentives. His chances of a promotion could hinge on Mauer’s health — Paul Molitor told reporters (including Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) that Mauer was making some progress, though the club will be as cautious as possible given Mauer’s history with concussions.