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Quick Hits: Twins, Pohlad, Turner, Suter, Rockies, Marlins

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With David Rubenstein’s ownership group set to buy the Orioles, there have been some inevitable questions about which MLB team might be the next to be put onto the market.  The Twins can be firmly removed from that discussion, as Joe Pohlad told Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that “we are not considering [selling].  We are in it for the long term.”

Carl Pohlad bought the Twins in 1984, and Joe (Carl’s grandson) is now the third generation of the family to oversee the team’s day-to-day operations.  “This is something that brings our family together, something we enjoy being a part of. We love getting together at the ballpark,” Joe Pohlad said.  “And not only is it a family asset, it’s a community asset.  We take that seriously, being part of the community and stewards of the team.”  The younger Pohlad’s first year overseeing the Twins was a notable one, as Minnesota won the AL Central and then won their first playoff series since 2022 before bowing out in the ALDS.

As we say hey to a baseball legend on Willie Mays Day, here are some more items from around the league

  • “The Blue Jays were one of the first teams that reached out” once free agency began, Justin Turner told the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham and other reporters, and this aggression paid off when Turner and the Jays agreed to a one-year, $13MM deal earlier this week.  The veteran infielder is excited to be joining his new club, though also expressed some bittersweet feelings about leaving the Red Sox after a successful first season in Boston.  He opted out of the second year of his two-year deal but said that “right when the season ended, I assumed that it would be a no-brainer, that I would try to work something out and come back.”  However, Turner feels the changeover in Boston’s front office might’ve delayed the process, and “as time went on, it was appearing to be less and less likely” that a return to the Sox was in the cards.
  • Brent Suter was one of the few pitching bright spots for the Rockies last season, so it isn’t surprising that GM Bill Schmidt told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that the team “had a lot of discussions with Suter’s agent prior and after he became a free agent.”  No deal was reached, however, and Suter ended signing with his hometown Reds for a one-year, $3MM contract.
  • The Marlins have hired Sam Mondry-Cohen as the team’s new VP of player personnel, according to the Miami Herald’s Craig Mish (X link).  Mondry-Cohen is best known for his long stint in the Nationals organization, as he rose from an internship in 2009 to an assistant general manager role at the time of his departure at the end of the 2021 season.  Acting as the club’s director of research and development, Mondry-Cohen is credited with more or less building Washington’s analytics division from scratch, with the 2019 World Series title acting as the crown jewel of an overall very successful decade for the organization.  Mondry-Cohen consulted for the Phillies in 2022, worked in the White Sox baseball operations department last season, and he’ll now take on an important new set of responsibilities under new Miami president of baseball ops Peter Bendix.

Twins Sign Carlos Santana

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The Twins announced they have signed Carlos Santana to a one-year contract. The veteran first baseman, an Octagon client, is guaranteed $5.25MM on a deal that also includes performance incentives.

At the start of the offseason, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said the team was open to adding at first base. That preceded three months of a dearth of activity on both the trade and free agent fronts. With an expected payroll reduction as they anticipated a dip in their local broadcasting revenues, the Twins made essentially no acquisitions.

Things kicked into gear this week with the trade sending second baseman Jorge Polanco to the Mariners for a four-player return. Two of the players headed back to the Twin Cities — reliever Justin Topa and starter Anthony DeSclafani — addressed a portion of the pitching depth the team lost with Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle and Emilio Pagán signing elsewhere.

The trade presaged a free agent acquisition on the position player side, as Falvey acknowledged shortly after it was finalized. Minnesota offloaded Polanco’s $10.5MM salary. They took back Topa’s $1.25MM deal and assumed $4MM of the $12MM owed to DeSclafani for the upcoming season. That netted them $5.25MM in cost savings — the exact amount they’re now committing to Santana.

Moving Polanco indirectly opened the door to a more defensively-limited hitter. Edouard Julien now has a path to everyday reps at second base. Julien will still see some action at designated hitter but won’t log nearly as many at-bats there as he would’ve had Polanco still been on the roster. Santana and Alex Kirilloff should share the majority of the playing time between DH and first base.

Even as he nears his 38th birthday, Santana is better suited to play on the infield than at the DH spot. He remains a solid defender at first base. Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved each typically grade him slightly better than average with the glove. DRS estimated he was 11 runs above par a year ago, while Statcast had him at +2 runs.

The defense accounts for a good portion of Santana’s value. He’s a solid hitter but doesn’t have the kind of offensive firepower typically associated with the position. He’s coming off a .240/.318/.429 showing across 619 plate appearances split between the Pirates and Brewers. He hit 23 home runs, 33 doubles, and picked up his first triple in four years.

That offensive output was essentially league average, as measured by wRC+. He also rated as an average hitter in 2022, when he put together a .202/.316/.376 line in 506 plate appearances between the Royals and Mariners. While his triple slash stats were quite a bit higher in ’23 than they’d been the year before, offense was up around the league. (The league OPS jumped from .707 to .734.) Milwaukee’s American Family Field, where Santana finished last season, is also a far more favorable hitting venue than are either of the parks he called home two years ago.

Park-adjusted metrics didn’t feel Santana took a major step forward at the plate. That sentiment was apparently shared by the market, which valued him fairly similarly as it did a year ago. His 2024 salary is a little below the $6.725MM he’d been guaranteed on his one-year pact with Pittsburgh.

A switch-hitter, Santana has been more effective from the right side. Over the past two seasons, he owns a .266/.370/.430 line in 303 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. That’s quite a bit better than his .208/.298/.397 showing against righties. Santana’s recent productivity versus southpaws is appealing to a club that struggled somewhat in that regard a year ago. Minnesota had a .244/.330/.432 batting line against right-handers while hitting .241/.313/.414 against lefties.

Assuming Byron Buxton can play center field most days, which is the current expectation, most of Minnesota’s in-house DH possibilities hit from the left side. The corner outfield trio of Max Kepler, Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach are all lefty bats, as is Kirilloff. Santana complements the group from a handedness perspective.

Perhaps more importantly, he has also been incredibly durable. Santana has remarkably gone on the injured list just one time since 2014 (a minimal stay for ankle bursitis in May ’22). He has played in 130+ games in every full schedule since 2011 and appeared in all 60 contests during the shortened season. That kind of reliability pairs well with Kirilloff, a talented hitter who has been bothered by various injuries to this point in his career.

Kirilloff has missed time in all three of his MLB campaigns. Right wrist injuries led to extended absences in his first two seasons, culminating in season-ending surgeries both years. He battled shoulder problems last season and underwent a labrum repair in October. While he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, the injury history has to be of concern to the front office. Last season’s 88 MLB games represented his personal high.

Minnesota’s payroll projection jumps back to the approximate $123MM figure at which they started this week, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re reportedly aiming for a season-opening payroll in the $125-140MM range.

Darren Wolfson of SKOR North first reported the Twins and Santana had agreed to a one-year contract. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the $5.25MM guarantee and inclusion of performance bonuses.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Diamond Sports Group In Agreement With Rangers, Twins, Guardians For 2024

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Diamond Sports Group has an agreement in place with the Rangers, Twins and Guardians, meaning Bally will plan to broadcast the games of those clubs this year, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic. The agreements are still pending court approval. The judge is expected to rule on these agreements February 9, per Alden González of ESPN. Drellich adds that the three clubs retain their streaming rights but each contract has a clause preventing them from doing anything with them this year.

“We are pleased to have reached agreements with the Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers that work for all parties and enable us to continue delivering high-quality, live game broadcasts on Bally Sports to dedicated fans through the 2024 season,” reads a statement from a Diamond spokesperson, per Drellich.

The Guardians confirmed their agreement with a statement relayed by Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal. “We can confirm we have reached an agreement with Diamond Sports Group for the 2024 season,” the club statement reads. “That agreement is currently pending court approval.”

It was reported earlier this week that the league expected Diamond to work out new deals with each of those three clubs and it now seems that the agreements are in place. The Twins’ previous deal with Diamond expired at the end of 2023. The Rangers and Guardians still had contracts in place but Diamond threatened to abandon them as part of the ongoing bankruptcy proceedings, citing them as unprofitable.

The details still aren’t known, but the reporting from earlier this week suggested the clubs would likely be paid at least 85% of what they were getting previously. The Guardians reportedly made $55MM from their deal in 2023 with the Rangers reportedly at $111MM. Even if they are going to get lower fees compared to the past, a new deal could at least give them some clarity over their 2024 finances, which could then impact how they proceed with roster moves in the coming weeks.

Not too long ago, it seemed as though Diamond was going to be abandoning live sports entirely after 2024. But a couple of weeks back, they announced a restructuring deal involving an investment from Amazon, a deal that Diamond believes can get it out of bankruptcy. If the bankruptcy court approves all of these details, Amazon will acquire the streaming rights of the Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers and Rays. Per González, the ruling on that restructuring deal is expected February 26, with Diamond then having until March 22 to finalize the details for presentation in court.

Diamond only had the streaming rights for those five clubs, meaning it couldn’t sell rights for the other clubs that it broadcasts on television. The Rangers, Twins and Guardians will retain their streaming rights but won’t be able to work out a new deal this year. For fans in those markets hoping for changes to the direct-to-consumer model, it seems they may have to wait another year, assuming everything ends up being approved in court.

Twins Claim Daniel Duarte, Designate Ryan Jensen

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The Twins claimed right-hander Daniel Duarte off waivers from the Rangers, per announcements from both clubs. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Minnesota designated fellow righty and fellow waiver claim Ryan Jensen for assignment.

Duarte, 27, made his big league debut with the 2022 Reds but pitched only 2 2/3 innings that year due to inflammation in his elbow. He was healthier and posted generally solid run-prevention numbers in 2023, totaling 31 2/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball for Cincinnati. That earned run average masks some much shakier K/BB numbers, however. Duarte has fanned a well below-average 16.7% of his MLB opponents and walked an unsightly 15.3% of them. He’ll need to improve one or both of those areas in order to stick in the big leagues.

That said, there’s reason to hope for improvement. Duarte has fanned 26.8% of his opponents at the Triple-A level, and while his 11.6% walk rate there is still too high, it’s a far sight better than his big league mark to date. He’s averaged a strong 95.7 mph on his heater, and scouting reports on the right-hander tout his plus slider. Duarte has a minor league option remaining, so he can be an up-and-down arm for the Twins this season if they hang onto him for the remainder of the offseason and into the 2024 campaign.

Jensen, 26, was the No. 27 overall pick by the Cubs back in 2019 but hasn’t made his big league debut. The Twins claimed him off waivers in early January. Command issues have plagued him throughout his minor league tenure, and Chicago placed him on waivers shortly after the trade deadline, surely hopeful of sneaking him through in order to retain him without committing a 40-man roster spot. That didn’t happen, as Seattle claimed him on waivers. He’s since bounced to the Marlins and Twins via the waiver wire, and he’ll now spend no more than a week waiting to learn his next stop. The Twins have seven days to trade Jensen or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.

In 2023, Jensen split the year between Double-A and Triple-A, working to a combined 5.32 earned run average in 64 1/3 innings of work. He operated primarily out of the bullpen, his first season doing so after spending the first few years of his career as a starting pitcher. He sports an overall 4.42 ERA with an above-average 26% strikeout rate and ugly 14.5% walk rate in his minor league career.

Jensen has a mid-90s heater, plus ground-ball rates, above-average strikeout rates and a pair of minor league options remaining, so the Twins would surely be glad if they’re able to pass him through waivers and keep him in the organization. But he’s also been designated for assignment thrice in the past six months and claimed by a new club each time, so there’s a decent chance another team will scoop him up in hopes of tapping into some of the former first-rounder’s latent potential.

MLBTR Podcast: The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Is Cody Bellinger unsigned because of his asking price? Will the Cubs sign him or do they not want to block their outfield prospect? (27:35)
  • Should the Mariners sign Blake Snell? Will they? Can they? (31:40)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Diamond Sports Group Expected To Retain Guardians, Rangers, Twins Broadcasts For 2024

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Diamond Sports Group has been renegotiating its in-market deals with the Guardians, Rangers and Twins as part of its ongoing bankruptcy proceeding. Evan Drellich of the Athletic reported this morning that MLB expects all three organizations to sign one-year deals to remain on Diamond’s Bally Sports networks for the 2024 season. None of those contracts have yet been finalized.

The Twins’ TV deal expired at the end of the 2023 season. The Rangers and Guardians still had contracts with Diamond, but the broadcasting conglomerate had called those deals unprofitable and threatened to abandon them if they weren’t renegotiated at a lesser fee. Diamond already dropped contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks during the ’23 season.

That left Cleveland, Texas and Minnesota to discuss reduced terms or to risk losing their local broadcasting fees entirely. According to various reports, Cleveland made $55MM off their TV deal a year ago. Texas took in around $111MM from Diamond, while Minnesota’s contract paid $54MM in its final season.

The specific terms under discussion aren’t known. However, Drellich reports that the Guardians and Rangers are expected to lose 15% or less of what they otherwise would have received in 2024. It’s unclear how much of a reduction Minnesota might need to take on their next contract. On the one hand, that’s still an unenviable position for those organizations. A 15% reduction could knock roughly $8.25MM off the Guardians’ expected revenues, while the Rangers’ deal could be reduced by something in the $17MM range by that criteria. (The precise figures are unclear, since the teams’ anticipated rights fees in 2024 were not necessarily the same as what they’d made in ’23).

At the same time, recouping 85+% of their expected fees is still a better outcome for those teams than moving on from Diamond entirely, which likely would have required the teams to turn to MLB to handle in-market broadcasting. That’s particularly true for Texas, which had one of the game’s more profitable RSN agreements. A one-year deal will still leaves the teams with long-term uncertainty, but they appear on track to remain on the Bally Sports networks for at least one more year.

If/when the new deals are finalized, Diamond will again be responsible for in-market televising for 12 teams. The company has already stated it’ll honor next season’s commitments at full price for the Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Marlins, Rays, Reds, Royals and Tigers. Whether Diamond will be able to operate beyond the ’24 MLB season remains to be seen. Its recent restructuring agreement to sell its in-market streaming rights to Amazon for an influx of $450MM is designed to keep the company afloat beyond this year. That is still pending approval from the bankruptcy court. Drellich notes that some within the baseball industry remain skeptical about Diamond’s long-term viability even if the court signs off on its streaming deal with Amazon.

Mariners Asked About Max Kepler In Trade Talks With Twins

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The Mariners and Twins recently got together on a trade that sent infielder Jorge Polanco to Seattle, with a four-player package heading the other way. Today, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the M’s asked about a larger deal that would have also involved outfielder Max Kepler, though that particular line of discussion wasn’t fruitful.

Though the talks didn’t yield results, it seems to suggest that the Mariners still have some appetite for another move to further change their outfield mix. Since last year, they have lost Teoscar Hernández and Jarred Kelenic, the former reaching free agency and signing with the Dodgers while the latter was traded to Atlanta. The M’s replaced those two by acquiring old friend Mitch Haniger from the Giants as well as Luke Raley from the Rays. On paper, those two would slot into the regular outfield alongside Julio Rodríguez.

There would be some logic to adding to that group. Due to some injuries and the shortened 2020 season, Haniger has only played more than 63 games in a season on three occasions. The past two years have each seen him finish with around 60 games played, missing time due to a right high ankle sprain, a left oblique strain, a right forearm fracture and a low back strain. He’s generally been able to post good results even when battling injuries but 2023 was a struggle. He hit .209/.266/.365 for a wRC+ of 73, his first season of subpar offensive production since his 2016 debut.

Giving Haniger plenty of time in the designated hitter slot would be a logical plan in a vacuum but likely isn’t feasible for the M’s with the current roster construction. They signed catcher Mitch Garver to a two-year, $24MM deal last month, but he figures to DH on an everyday basis or something close to it, with Cal Raleigh behind the plate most days. An injury could always change things but Haniger is currently projected for a regular role in the outfield.

As for Raley, his 2023 was strong overall but ended on a down note. He hit .268/.357/.533 through the end of July while striking out in 29.8% of his plate appearances. From the start of August until the end of the season, his line was just .200/.270/.380 with a 36% strikeout rate. The combined work for the year was still well above average, 130 wRC+, but the overall track record is limited. He’ll turn 30 years old next year and has played one good MLB season, which still came with concerning elements.

The Mariners also have a batch of depth outfielders in the mix, including Taylor Trammell, Cade Marlowe, Dominic Canzone, Zach DeLoach and Jonatan Clase, but their interest in Kepler suggests they would consider another addition under the right circumstances. The free agent market still has Cody Bellinger, though it’s hard to envision the M’s giving out a mega deal to a player like that since they have had notable budget limitations this offseason. More plausible options would include Michael A. Taylor, Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham or Eddie Rosario. The trade market could feature guys like Alec Burleson, Randy Arozarena or Seth Brown.

Seattle’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has suggested that the 2024 club will have a higher payroll than last year’s $140MM figure, but uncertainty around the broadcast revenue situation might limit them to a modest increase. Roster Resource currently has them at $135MM, meaning Kepler’s $10MM salary would have pushed them to $145MM.

For the Twins, perhaps they weren’t as open to dealing Kepler as they were with Polanco. While the latter was getting squeezed out of a crowded infield picture, Kepler could still play an important role with the 2024 club. He had a bounceback season at the plate last year, hitting 24 home runs and slashing .260/.332/.484 for a wRC+ of 124. He also provided above-average defense in right field, as he has done for many years.

He figures to continue in that role in 2024, with Byron Buxton hopefully playing center field again. Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach could be lined up next to Kepler and Buxton, with players like Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, Austin Martin and Bubba Thompson perhaps in the mix as well.

Kepler has been a speculative trade candidate due to the fact that the Twins are looking to cut payroll, while he’s making $10MM and an impending free agent. But after the Polanco deal, the club is down to about $118MM in spending commitments, according to Roster Resource. They are reportedly looking to get into the $125MM-140MM range so don’t really need to shed any more money unless they pivot to some kind of blockbuster signing, which perhaps will keep Kepler in Minnesota for the upcoming campaign.

Joe Smith Announces Retirement

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Veteran reliever Joe Smith announced his retirement on Wednesday, calling it a career after spending parts of 15 seasons in the Major Leagues. Via his representatives at Excel Sports Management, Smith issued a lengthy statement thanking the Mets, Guardians, Angels, Cubs, Blue Jays, Astros, Mariners and Twins organizations in addition to his coaches, teammates, trainers and family for supporting him throughout his career.

Selected by the Mets in the third round of the 2006 draft, the now-39-year-old Smith was in the majors less than one year later and practically never looked back. That’s in large part thanks to the fact that Smith established himself as a quality big league reliever right out of the gate, pitching 44 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball with a 22% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate as a rookie.

That set off a remarkable run of 13 straight seasons with an ERA of 3.83 or better for Smith — including five years with a sub-3.00 mark and two with a sub-2.00. While the sidearming Smith was rarely thrust into the ninth-inning spotlight (30 career saves), he’s one of the most consistent and prolific setup men in the game’s history. Since holds began being tracked, Smith’s 228 rank him in the top five all-time. His blend of durability and consistently strong performance kept him in leverage spots for more than a decade.

Smith wasn’t on the 2016 Cubs’ World Series roster after missing most of the final month of the season due to injury, but he did take home a ring that year and pitched in parts of five other postseasons (including in 2019, when he pitched in the World Series as the Astros finished runner-up to the Nationals). As was the case during his regular-season performances, he remained quite strong in October. In 14 career playoff innings, Smith yielded only four earned runs on eight hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts (2.57 ERA).

All told, Smith will walk away from the game with 762 1/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball under his belt. In his career, he pitched for eight MLB clubs, notching a 55-34 record with 30 saves, 228 holds, a 21.1% strikeout rate and an 8.1% walk rate. Smith didn’t post an ERA over 4.00 until his age-37 season in 2021, and in 15 MLB seasons he never had a single year where he ERA climbed to 5.00 or higher. He picked up more than 13 years of Major League service time and earned more than $51MM in salary over the course of a quietly excellent career. Best wishes to Smith and his family in whatever lies in store for his post-playing days.

Twins Rumors: Solano, Duvall, Lorenzen

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The Twins finally made their first significant move of the offseason this week, shipping out stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco in a trade that netted big league righties Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani as well as prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen from the Mariners. The Twins picked up a net savings of $5.25MM in the trade as well, which president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has already suggested will go toward adding a bat from outside the organization. One possibility the Twins may be considering, per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, is a reunion with veteran utilityman Donovan Solano.

It’s unlikely that the 36-year-old Solano would command the entirety of that savings, let alone any resources beyond that point. He played the 2023 season on a one-year, $2MM deal he signed with the Twins after spring training had already begun. Solano didn’t necessarily post eye-popping numbers but was a quietly important piece of the Twins’ AL Central title, turning in a strong .282/.369/.391 batting line with a career-high 8.9% walk rate against a 22.2% strikeout rate (just south of league average but also a career-high mark). That batting line was 16% better than average, by measure of wRC+, and Solano paired it with his typical defensive versatility, logging time at first base, second base and third base.

Bringing back Solano would deepen the team’s bench mix and once again provide a right-handed-hitting complement to lefty-swinging first baseman Alex Kirilloff. However, it’s also debatable whether the need is as pressing this time around as when Minnesota last signed Solano. Royce Lewis has emerged as the team’s everyday third baseman, with Carlos Correa at shortstop. The Polanco trade cleared the way for 2023 rookie standout Edouard Julien to step into an everyday role at second base. Kirilloff is likely to man first base, and the Twins have another right-handed-hitting option, Jose Miranda, as a righty option to pair with Kirilloff.

The 2023 season was an injury ruined disaster for Miranda, as he struggled in both the majors and Triple-A before eventually undergoing shoulder surgery. But in 2022, the former top-100 prospect debuted with a strong .268/.325/.426 slash and 15 homers — including a particularly stout .289/.348/.454 showing following a dismal three-week stretch to begin his career. If Miranda is back to full strength, he can certainly be that right-handed partner for Kirilloff at first base. And, the Twins also have former top-10 picks Brooks Lee and Austin Martin on the cusp of the majors, each adding to the infield depth.

To that end, Heyman notes that Minnesota is also exploring the market for outfield help. Presumably, the target would be a right-handed bat, as corner options Matt Wallner, Max Kepler and Trevor Larnach all bat left-handed. Byron Buxton expects to be back in center field this season after spending last year as a DH following knee surgery but is, as always, a major injury question mark. The Twins have utilitymen Willi Castro and Nick Gordon as center field alternatives, and the aforementioned Martin is also no stranger to the position. But a righty bat who can handle center field still seems like a prudent addition, whether that be a reunion with Michael A. Taylor or perhaps a different free agent like Adam Duvall or Randal Grichuk.

Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Twins have indeed considered Duvall, specifically. The 35-year-old, righty-swinging slugger is capable of playing all three outfield spots but is best suited for corner work at this stage of his career. Duvall ripped 21 homers in just 92 games for the Red Sox last year while slashing .247/.303/.531 overall.

Contact and plate discipline issues have long plagued Duvall. He fanned in 31.2% of his plate appearances last year against just a 6.2% walk rate; in his career, he sports marks of 28.7% and 6.7% in those respective categories. The Twins had MLB’s highest strikeout rate last year, and while they’re subtracting Joey Gallo (42.8%) and potentially the previously mentioned Taylor as well (33.5%), they’ll also surely give more at-bats to young strikeout-prone players like Julien (31.4%) and Wallner (31.5%) in 2024. Adding another strikeout rate of 30% or more could be problematic, but they’re surely weighing that against the benefits Duvall could bring to the roster.

In the rotation, the Twins’ addition of DeSclafani has addressed some of the depth issues, though the veteran right-hander isn’t going to be mistaken as a direct replacement for outgoing Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray, who signed a three-year, $75MM deal with the Cardinals. The Twins, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, were showing interest in free-agent righty Michael Lorenzen before adding DeSclafani in the Polanco swap.

The addition of DeSclafani could well push young right-hander Louie Varland to the bullpen or the Triple-A St. Paul Saints’ rotation, but it’s not entirely clear yet whether it precludes the addition of someone like Lorenzen (a former teammate of DeSclafani’s in Cincinnati). Lorenzen made his first All-Star team in 2023 after a strong start to the season, and after being traded to Philadelphia at the deadline, tossed a no-hitter in his second start as a Phillie.

Things derailed quickly thereafter, however, as Lorenzen — a reliever-turned-starter — looked to fade down the stretch while navigating the tail end of a career-high 153-inning workload. He pitched to an 8.01 ERA in 30 innings following that no-hit gem, eventually being dropped from the Philly rotation to the bullpen. On the whole, Lorenzen finished with a 4.18 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate.

Minnesota’s payroll currently projects around $118MM, which is about $37MM shy of last year’s $155MM mark. Earlier reports in the winter suggested a target in the $125-140MM range, so there ought to be room to add someone of Lorenzen’s caliber or a similar starter in free agency, particularly since they’re only on the hook for $4MM of DeSclafani’s salary. Further addressing the rotation isn’t a foregone conclusion, but it remains something for the Twins to consider as the clock to spring training ticks.

Mariners Acquire Jorge Polanco

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The Mariners and Twins have lined up on one of the bigger trades of the offseason. Seattle announced the acquisition of second baseman Jorge Polanco for four players: reliever Justin Topa, starter Anthony DeSclafani and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen, as well as cash considerations. The Mariners are reportedly including $8MM to cover two-thirds of DeSclafani’s $12MM salary for the upcoming campaign.

Seattle and Minnesota have long seemed an on-paper fit for this kind of move. The M’s didn’t get much out of their second basemen last season. Opening Day starter Kolten Wong was released midway through the year. Landing Josh Rojas in the deadline deal that sent Paul Sewald to the D-Backs helped to an extent, but the position still seemed a weakness entering the offseason.

The M’s further thinned the infield with a trade sending third baseman Eugenio Suárez to Arizona. Seattle brought in non-tender candidate Luis Urías in a deal with the Red Sox to add a contact-oriented hitter to the mix. While Rojas and Urías could split time between second and third base, it’d have been risky to count on both players as regulars.

As a result, Seattle lands one of the top offensive middle infielders on the trade market. The switch-hitting Polanco has posted above-average numbers at the plate in four of the past five seasons. Since the start of the 2019 campaign, he owns a .267/.337/.458 slash in nearly 2400 plate appearances. Knee and hamstring issues bothered him early last season, but he hit at a typically solid level when healthy. Polanco connected on 14 homers over 80 games, running a .255/.335/.454 line through 343 trips to the dish.

That steady production made it an easy call for the Twins to exercise a $10.5MM option on his contract. That’s a below-market price for a quality regular. Yet even with Minnesota triggering the option, there was a general belief that he could find himself on the move this offseason. The Twins have an enviable collection of infield talent that already threatened to bump the 30-year-old Polanco from his natural position.

While Polanco was on the injured list, 24-year-old Edouard Julien mashed his way to the second base job. He hit .263/.381/.459 as a rookie to secure a spot atop Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. The Twins gave Polanco 103 innings at third base once he returned, his first action at the hot corner since 2016. With former first overall pick Royce Lewis emerging as a star down the stretch and into the postseason, that wouldn’t have been an avenue to regular playing time moving forward.

Minnesota could have used Polanco at second base while deploying Julien at designated hitter. That would have limited their flexibility to cycle other players through the DH spot while potentially pigeon-holing one of Minnesota’s more talented young hitters to a bat-only role. Polanco had some experience at shortstop early in his career, but he moved off the position because of defensive shortcomings and clearly wasn’t going to start over Carlos Correa. Minnesota also tendered arbitration contracts to utility infielders Kyle Farmer and Nick Gordon. José Miranda remains on hand as an option at the corners, while former #8 overall pick Brooks Lee could make his MLB debut in 2024.

It surely wasn’t an easy call for the front office to move on from one of their longest-tenured players. Polanco had been in the organization since signing as a 16-year-old back in 2009. He reached the big leagues before his 21st birthday and established himself as a regular by 2016. Polanco earned an All-Star nod and down-ballot MVP votes in ’19 and played a key role on four playoff teams.

The amount of infield depth nevertheless made a trade a distinct possibility. Minnesota’s pitching staff took a hit with free agent departures of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle. The Twins had done very little to balance the roster, citing payroll constraints related to their expiring local broadcasting contract. Minnesota was willing to field offers on their infield surplus, although president of baseball operations Derek Falvey made clear they’d seek MLB help as part of that return.

Seattle was open to parting with both a pair of big league arms and at least one of their top minor league talents to get the deal done. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes that the M’s plan to use Polanco as their primary second baseman. That could leave the lefty-hitting Rojas and the right-handed swinging Urías to share time at third base. The M’s could keep Polanco at the keystone for two years. They’ll take on this year’s $10.5MM salary and hold a $12MM option for 2025 that comes with a $750K buyout. If Polanco performs at the level the Mariners envision, they’d likely exercise that option.

The Mariners relinquish some of their pitching depth to make that happen. Topa has less name value of the two MLB players headed to Minneapolis, but he’s the more appealing trade asset. The right-hander was a key part of another excellent Seattle bullpen a year ago. Acquired from the Brewers for a minor league pitcher in what seemed an insignificant trade last winter, the righty put together a career year.

Topa, who had 17 career MLB appearances going into the season, pitched 75 times for the M’s a year ago. He worked to a 2.61 ERA across 69 innings. Topa’s 21.9% strikeout rate was a little below average, but he did an excellent job keeping the ball on the ground. Working with a 95 MPH sinker and a pair of breaking pitches in his cutter and slider, he induced worm-burners at a very strong 56.7% clip. His production increasingly earned the trust of manager Scott Servais. By year’s end, he’d picked up 23 holds and a trio of saves.

If Topa can maintain that kind of production, he’d be an asset for the Minnesota relief corps. There’s a fair bit of risk with the 6’4″ hurler. Topa will turn 33 before Opening Day and has a lengthy injury history. He had undergone two Tommy John procedures and a flexor tendon surgery during his time in Milwaukee, a major reason he hadn’t logged extended MLB action until last year.

He accrued a decent chunk of service time while on the injured list and surpassed the three-year mark a year ago. Seattle and Topa agreed to a $1.25MM salary to avoid arbitration. He’ll go through that process twice more and won’t reach free agency until after the 2026 campaign. Topa still has a pair of minor league options, so the Twins could send him to Triple-A if he struggles unexpectedly.

DeSclafani spent less than a month as a member of the Mariners. Seattle acquired the righty alongside Mitch Haniger in the trade sending Robbie Ray to the Giants just after the New Year. His inclusion in both trades is motivated in large part by finances.

The 33-year-old (34 in April) is set to make $12MM in the final season of a three-year free agent deal he inked with San Francisco. The Giants are paying half of that, sending $6MM to Seattle as part of the Ray trade. Seattle is moving that $6MM to Minnesota and including an additional $2MM. The Twins are responsible for the final $4MM on the deal.

It has been a tough couple years for DeScalfani, who was limited to five starts in 2022 before undergoing season-ending ankle surgery. Injures were again an issue last year. This time, a flexor strain in his throwing elbow ended his season in late July.

Before the arm injury, he had pitched 19 times and logged 99 2/3 innings. The nine-year veteran worked to a 4.88 ERA with a below-average 18.9% strikeout percentage. He walked fewer than 5% of opponents but he’s lost a few points off his strikeout and ground-ball numbers since his excellent 2021 campaign, when he posted a 3.17 ERA over 31 starts.

The Mariners were set to use DeSclafani in a long relief capacity. Minnesota could afford him a chance to battle for the #5 spot in the season-opening rotation. The Twins have Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack in the top four spots. DeSclafani and right-hander Louie Varland are the top options for the final rotation job. Whichever of those two starts the season in long relief could move into the rotation as injuries necessitate.

Gonzalez, who turned 20 this month, isn’t going to contribute at the MLB level anytime soon. He’s nevertheless arguably the headliner of the deal from Minnesota’s perspective. The right-handed hitting outfielder signed with Seattle for $1.3MM out of Venezuela during the 2021-22 international period. Baseball America recently ranked him the #5 prospect in the M’s system, while MLB Pipeline has him as the game’s #79 overall minor league talent.

Evaluators praise Gonzalez’s natural bat-to-ball skills. Those were on display in Low-A, where he hit .348/.403/.530 with a modest 13.7% strikeout rate in 335 plate appearances last year. However, Baseball America notes that Gonzalez has an extremely aggressive offensive approach that was exposed when he was promoted to High-A midseason. He struggled to a .215/.290/.387 slash while fanning at a 21.5% clip in 200 plate appearances at that level. Gonzalez walked in fewer than 7% of his plate appearances at both stops. As a below-average athlete who projects as a corner outfielder, he’ll need to improve his plate discipline to reach his potential.

Bowen, 22, was a 13th-round draftee in the 2022 draft. A product of UNC-Pembroke, he worked to a 3.88 ERA through 55 2/3 innings at Low-A in his first pro season. The 6’3″ right-hander ranked as Seattle’s #25 prospect at BA. The outlet credits him with low-mid 90s velocity and a potential above-average breaking pitch. Bowen draws praise for his athleticism but presently has below-average control, evidenced by a 10.9% walk rate in the minors.

Taking on Polanco’s contract will push Seattle’s payroll commitments into the $135MM range, as calculated by Roster Resource, depending on how much of the DeSclafani contract they’re retaining. They opened last season around $137MM. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated early in the winter that Seattle expected to top last season’s spending and they’re now right near that mark. Minnesota’s payroll estimate drops to roughly $119MM, leaving them some flexibility to supplement the roster over the next few weeks.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the sides were finalizing a trade sending Polanco to Seattle. Jeff Passan of ESPN confirmed an agreement was in place. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Twins were acquiring four players, two of whom were big leaguers. Robert Murray of FanSided reported Topa’s inclusion, while Dan Hayes of the Athletic had DeSclafani’s and Gonzalez’s involvement. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported the Twins were receiving Bowen and the presence of cash considerations, which Rosenthal specified were coming from Seattle’s end. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported the Mariners were paying upwards of $6MM in cash considerations. Hayes and Rosenthal specified the M’s were including $8MM in cash considerations.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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