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Make Or Break Year: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

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The Diamondbacks and Blue Jays combined on one of the winter’s biggest trades back in December, though for all of the attention the deal received, much more focus was (understandably) placed on the involvement of Daulton Varsho and Gabriel Moreno than on the fact that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was now headed to Arizona.  Varsho is a very promising young player and already an ace defender, while Moreno is arguably baseball’s best prospect — with all these future potential in mind, it isn’t necessarily surprising that Gurriel was something of an afterthought.

It wasn’t that long ago that Gurriel was himself a sought-after young talent, when he defected from Cuba in 2016 and signed a seven-year, $22MM deal with Toronto later that year.  He made his MLB debut in April 2018 at age 24 and has since carved out a solid career for himself over five seasons in the Show, yet in some ways, Gurriel has been hampered by those initial high expectations.  Though Gurriel has been much better than many prospects (both international and from the domestic draft) over the years who carried a lot more hype, having “only” a solid career to date has perhaps been a little underwhelming considering how good Gurriel has looked when he has been in top form.

Gurriel’s .285/.329/.468 slash line and 68 homers over 1864 career MLB plate appearances translates to a 115 wRC+, well above the league average.  He has consistently delivered good (and in 2020, elite) hard-hit ball rates, and his barrel rates were similarly pretty consistent before plummeting downwards in 2022.  While Gurriel doesn’t walk much, his strikeout and whiff rates have steadily improved over the last four seasons, with Gurriel topping out in the 78th percentile of all hitters in K% and in the 71st percentile in whiff rate last year.

With all this in mind, however, Gurriel has amassed only 6.2 fWAR over his 468 big league games.  For comparison’s sake, Varsho has 7.1 fWAR over 283 games and 1022 PA, with 4.6 fWAR coming in the 2022 season alone.  Defense accounts for much of Varsho’s advantage, as Gurriel has been roughly an average left fielder since the start of the 2019 season, when factoring in all of the public defensive metrics.  Defensive Runs Saved (+4) likes Gurriel’s outfield work, while UZR/150 (-2.7) and especially Outs Above Average (-16) have been a lot less impressed.  It is worth noting, however, that Gurriel was a finalist for the AL left field Gold Glove in both 2020 and 2021, somewhat in defiance of the mixed reviews from the metrics.

Glovework has been an element of Gurriel’s big league career from the start, as the Blue Jays initially hoped he could be a shortstop prospect or at least a second baseman, but he struggled badly as an infielder.  Fortunately for both Gurriel and the Jays, a position change to left field allowed him to settle in both as a defender and at the plate, even if it limited Gurriel’s overall value in the long term.  As he heads into his age-29 season, Gurriel has only moderate defensive utility as a passable left fielder and as a part-time first baseman, though his solid arm strength suggests that he might be an option in right field (a position he has never played in the majors).

Looking at Gurriel’s batting statistics, his good overall numbers smooth over a lot of streakiness at the plate.  The outfielder is prone to extreme hot and cold stretches, with injuries sometimes factoring into that variance.  Just in 2022, Gurriel had a .601 OPS over his first 154 plate appearances, then posted a .901 OPS in his next 241 PA, then slumped to a .554 OPS in his final 98 PA prior to a hamstring injury that prematurely ended his season in early September.

While that roller-coaster of a season evened out to 114 wRC+ in 493 PA, Gurriel’s sudden lack of power was a concern, as his .108 Isolated Power total was far below the .209 ISO he had previously posted during his career.  Again, injuries might have been a reason, as Gurriel dealt with a wrist problem during the season that eventually required surgery in October, and he is expected to be ready for his first Spring Training with the D’Backs.

It all adds up to a career that has been both inconsistent, yet somewhat predictably inconsistent at the same time.  The Diamondbacks have a reasonable expectation of what a healthy Gurriel can deliver as a floor, with hopes that his ceiling might reach higher in a new environment.  Gurriel could also benefit to some extent if the D’Backs use their left-handed hitting outfielders (i.e. Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Dominic Fletcher) to provide some shield against right-handed pitching, though Gurriel’s career splits are pretty even.

2023 is the final season of Gurriel’s initial seven-year contract, and a clause in the deal makes him automatically eligible for free agency next winter even though Gurriel will be short of six years of MLB service time.  The outfielder will be 30 on Opening Day 2024, so he can still offer some prime years to an interesting team on the open market, but much will be determined by how Gurriel performs this season in Arizona.

Some Toronto fans were surprised that the Blue Jays had to include both Moreno and Gurriel to pry Varsho away from the D’Backs, yet that could reflect what relatively modest trade value Gurriel had around the league, even for a player owed only $5.4MM in 2023.  Even from the Diamondbacks’ perspective, while Gurriel’s inclusion was a factor in finally getting the trade over the finish line, the still-existing outfield surplus within the organization means that Arizona probably sees Gurriel as a one-year rental.  If the D’Backs are again out of contention by the trade deadline, Gurriel might be a prime candidate to be shipped elsewhere.

If Gurriel matches only his 2021-22 numbers, a two-year free agent deal might be his max, and a lot of teams might not be willing to go beyond one guaranteed year.  As we’ve seen this offseason, teams are willing to pay big for superstars, or pay big (either in free agent dollars or in trade return) for younger players with potential to break out.  Clubs are less willing to open their wallets for “just” solid production, thus leaving Gurriel in danger of being squeezed in the market unless he has a quality platform season.

Gurriel could point to older brother Yuli as an example of how later-career production runs in the family.  However, the younger Gurriel will likely need to stay healthy and (perhaps significantly) out-perform his past Toronto production in order to really capitalize on his upcoming trip to the open market.

Big Hype Prospects: Wood, Holliday, Williams, Rodriguez, Crow-Armstrong

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The international signing market is well underway. We can think of these mostly 16-year-old boys as transplanted seeds. Some of them will grow big and strong over the next half-decade. Others will sprout then later wither during a drought or cold spell. Many won’t take to the new soil in which they’re planted. Perhaps the soil is too base or acidic. Or maybe a team thought they were buying one type of seed and actually got another. The wrong type of nurturing can ruin a plant. As outside observers, we can check back in a year or three once these youngsters have taken to their new soil.

Plant metaphor aside, we have a honking update from Baseball America to chew upon this week. They’ve released their initial 2023 Top 100 Prospects list. I’m pleased to point out that Big Hype Prospects has correctly anticipated several notable surges up the prospect ranks, most notably number one overall Gunnar Henderson, number three Jackson Chourio, and number five Andrew Painter. Today, I’ll focus on a few names who have shot up the ranks.

For those of you who have been frustrated by the lack of “Big Hype” in our offseason prospects coverage, this is the episode for you.

Five BHPs In The News

James Wood, 20, OF, WSH (A)
(R/A) 348 PA, 12 HR, 20 SB, .313/.420/.536

Wood drew attention as the principal return in the Juan Soto trade. While he was joined by several promising young players, Wood is now seen as the “big get” in the deal. One concern from professional evaluators is the lack of successes from the Nationals development pipeline. While they’ve had a few big stars over the years (i.e. Soto), they’ve also seen a number of top prospects vastly underperform expectations (i.e. Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom).

If we assume the club doesn’t find some way to spoil Wood, there’s considerable upside here. Wood is built like a young Oneil Cruz. He’s a lean, physical giant with above-average speed, light tower raw power, a surprising feel for contact, and natural plate discipline. Like many young players, his contact profile is still geared toward ground balls. He also has an all-fields approach which has helped with his BABIPs at the expense of home runs. These will be the areas of his game likeliest to differentiate between a core performer or superstar future. Wood ranks 11th on the new Top 100 list.

Jackson Holliday, 19, 2B/SS, BAL (A)
(R/A) 90 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB, .297/.489/.422

The first overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday checks in as the 15th prospect per Baseball America. In limited exposure, he demonstrated pristine plate discipline and only rarely whiffed. The Orioles have recently garnered a sterling reputation when it comes to developing middle infielders. Holliday is still built like a typical 19-year-old athlete. He’s expected to add weight in the coming years. Scouts believe he’ll grow into 60-grade power. “Grow” is the operative word. Holliday and the Orioles will want to be careful. Too much growth could lead to a future as a second baseman with average or worse speed. Too little growth could leave his bat lacking thump.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AA)
(A+/AA) 115 IP, 11.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.96 ERA

Williams looks the part of a future ace, combining an effective upper-90s heater with a plus slider and curve. Like many power pitchers, his changeup flashes as usable but lags behind the other offerings enough that it’ll play fourth fiddle. A fly-ball pitcher with average command, Williams should be ready to contribute in Cleveland this season – health allowing. Williams is rated 20th by Baseball America. Between him and fast-rising Daniel Espino (19th-ranked), the Cleveland rotation could feature two lethal aces by the start of 2024.

Endy Rodriguez, 22, C, PIT (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 531 PA, 25 HR, 2 SB, .323/.407/.590

Back in September, my sources were talking about bumping Rodriguez onto their Top 100 lists. I said the following:

Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, Rodriguez’s development advanced by leaps and bounds this season. He entered the year as a utility man with some catching experience. He now looks the part of either a premium catcher or second baseman. His hitting, which has always been discipline-forward, took a big step this season. Including all three levels he’s played, Rodriguez hit 24 home runs, 37 doubles, and three triples in 520 plate appearances. Not only is he hitting for power, he’s making excellent swing decisions and improving at every level. In a more widely applauded system, this performance could merit inclusion among the Top 25 prospects. As it stands, he’s quietly leaping onto Top 100 lists.

Rodriguez now ranks 23rd. Victory lap complete, Rodriguez is on the cusp of reaching the Majors. The Pirates have quietly given their roster a chance to “surprise contend.” One position they’ve done little to solve is catcher. They’re currently set to roll out a duo of defensive specialist Austin Hedges and perennial third-catcher Tyler Heineman.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, 20, OF, CHI (MLB)
(A/A+) 423 PA, 16 HR, 32 SB, .312/.376/.520

Crow-Armstrong is spoken of as a Kiermaierian defender, giving him one of the highest floors in the entire minor leagues. On this strength, Baseball America has ranked him 25th. Concerns about his hit tool have been alleviated following a successful 2022 campaign. It’s now believed he’ll settle in as an above-average hitter in addition to being the best defensive outfielder in the league. While that sounds like the profile of an easy Top 10 prospect, there are still enough ways for his bat to stumble to merit caution. The next hurdle for him is to see how his bat reacts to higher-quality breaking balls in the upper minors.

Five More

Kodai Senga, NYM (29): This column typically avoids international free agents. Technically, Senga is a prospect and ranks 16th. From the perspective of immediate contribution, only Henderson and Corbin Carroll are in the same stratosphere. Of course, Senga’s advanced age reduces his “value” as a prospect.

Evan Carter (20): Carter, another guy whose rise was anticipated by this column, is frequently comped to Brandon Nimmo. The left-handed hitter is carried by plate discipline and a feel for contact. His power isn’t a total zero, but it lags behind his other hitting traits. He might top out as a 20-homer threat, or he might not climb that far. Even so, he’s a high-probability future core performer. He’s ranked 26th. Teams value these sorts of players – just look at what Nimmo earned in free agency.

Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (24): There’s disagreement about which of the Diamondbacks young pitchers will turn out as the best performer. Baseball America has hitched its stakes to Pfaadt after his breakout 2022 campaign. He ranks 27th. We discussed him last week.

Marco Luciano, SFG (21): At one point, Luciano was trending toward top overall prospect status – much the way Chourio is now. Some of Luciano’s skills haven’t developed as expected, and his meteoric rise has stalled to a more gradual approach to the Majors. Luciano, 37th-ranked, still projects as a prodigious power hitter, one with flaws and a future move down the defensive spectrum.

Kevin Parada, NYM (21): At 50th on the list, Parada’s was the first name to catch me entirely by surprise. The 11th overall pick in the 2022 draft, Parada ranks where he does due to promising offensive traits and roughly average defense. Parada was taken with the compensation pick for not signing Kumar Rocker in 2021. Rocker, you might note, does not rank in the Top 100.

MLBTR Poll: American League Central Favorite

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The American League Central has had three different winners in the past three years. The Twins took the top spot in both 2019 and the shortened 2020 season but have since seen injuries hamper them significantly in the past two campaigns. A resurgent White Sox club took over in 2021, making the playoffs for a second consecutive year for the first time in franchise history. Many thought those two clubs would be battling it out in 2022 but a young Guardians team pulled off a surprise upset as both the Twins and Sox were snakebit by poor health. During that time, both the Royals and Tigers have been struggling to come out of rebuilds.

With just over three weeks until pitchers and catchers report, how much has the picture changed this offseason? There’s are still a few unsigned free agents and some trades could always change the picture, but let’s take a look at where things stand now.

Cleveland Guardians – 2022 Record: 92-70, projected 2023 fWAR: 45.1

The Guardians were the youngest team in baseball last year and expectations were fairly modest at this point one year ago. However, they snuck up on everyone and took the crown. Many will debate whether it was sustainable or a fluke, but they’ve gone into the offseason in a good position to repeat. Since so much of the roster was young and controllable, their most notable free agents were Austin Hedges and Bryan Shaw. That means the vast majority of the club that won 92 games last year will be back, with plenty more exciting prospects potentially joining them throughout the year.

Since they lost so few players at the end of last year, it’s been a fairly quiet winter for the club so far. However, they did make two notable additions by signing Josh Bell and Mike Zunino. Those two should help bolster the squad, and there will also be reinforcements coming from within. Prospects Brayan Rocchio, George Valera and Logan Allen all reached Triple-A last year and could make their MLB debuts this year, with Tanner Bibee, Daniel Espino and others not far behind.

Chicago White Sox – 2022 Record: 81-81, projected 2023 fWAR: 40.6

The Sox won 93 games in 2021 and were picked by many for a repeat in 2022. Unfortunately, many of their lineup regulars spent significant time on the injured list or disappointed or both. The rotation got huge results from Dylan Cease and Johnny Cueto but the rest of the rotation dealt with various ailments and slumped when on the mound. Manager Tony La Russa also dealt with health issues down the stretch and decided not to return to the dugout for 2023, leading to the hiring of Pedro Grifol.

They lost Cueto in free agency, along with their long-time fan favorite José Abreu. It’s hoped that Andrew Vaughn can come in from the outfield and take over for Abreu at first, which should at least help the team by subtracting his awful defense on the grass. Andrew Benintendi was signed to take over one of the outfield spots in Vaughn’s absence while Mike Clevinger was signed to replace Cueto in the rotation. It’s a fairly similar roster to the ones that won 93 games two years ago and 81 games last year. Better health might be enough to get them back to the 2021 form, but they’ve already lost their closer for an undetermined amount of time with Liam Hendriks starting treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.

Minnesota Twins – 2022 Record: 78-84, projected 2023 fWAR: 42.0

After two straight divisions titles in 2019 and 2020, it’s been two disappointing campaigns in Minnesota. A mountain of injuries kept them below .500 in each of the two most recent campaigns. They were also facing the loss of a superstar this winter as Carlos Correa opted out of his contract and seemed unlikely to return. He then underwent one of the most surprising trips through free agency in recent memory, agreeing to a 13-year deal with the Giants that was later scuttled when the club grew concerned by the long-term health of his right leg. Correa then agreed to a 12-year deal with the Mets, though that agreement was also kiboshed by the medicals. That culminated in Correa coming back to Minnesota on a six-year guarantee with four vesting options.

Getting Correa back is a nice coup for the Twins but it still means they’ve effectively ended up back where they started. Christian Vázquez was signed to replace the departing Gary Sánchez and they’ve also taken a gamble on a Joey Gallo bounceback, but the roster currently looks fairly similar to the one that disappointed last year. Better health alone could get them right back into the race and they hired a new head athletic trainer to try to help in that department. However, it wouldn’t be surprising if injuries were an issue again since many of their key players appear to be prone to IL trips.

Detroit Tigers – 2022 Record: 66-96, projected 2023 fWAR: 30.0

The Tigers were a popular sleeper pick for a postseason berth about this time last year. They had many exciting prospects on the cusp of their debuts, including Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson. They decided the time was right to strike by signing Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez, as well as upgrading via trade. Unfortunately, just about everyone on the roster had a disappointing season, especially on offense. The team hit just .231/.286/.346 for a wRC+ of 81 that was dead last in the majors. Their collective 110 home runs was also last and 17 behind the nearest team.

It seems like 2023 will be about figuring out how to proceed. The club fired general manager Al Avila and brought in Scott Harris as president of baseball operations. Since then, they’ve traded away a couple of relievers in Joe Jiménez and Gregory Soto while also signing a couple of starters to one-year deals in Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen. It seems the all-in approach is on hold until they figure out which parts of their roster to build around.

Kansas City Royals – 2022 Record: 65-97, projected 2023 fWAR: 30.7

The Royals have finished below .500 in each of the past six seasons. Their attempted rebuild was failing to bear fruit, which led to major shakeups this winter. Both manager Mike Matheny and president of baseball operations Dayton Moore were fired, with Matt Quatraro now in the skipper’s chair and J.J. Picollo the chief baseball decision maker. The roster changes have been fairly modest so far this winter, with Zack Greinke the most notable departure, though he’s still a free agent. The additions include Jordan Lyles, Ryan Yarbrough and Aroldis Chapman.

The club has some exciting young players in Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and MJ Melendez, but many of their top draft choices have gone to pitchers that have disappointed thus far. Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar, Alec Marsh, Jonathan Bowlan and Asa Lacy were all taken in the first or second round of the draft and haven’t yet delivered much to be excited about. However, Brady Singer showed in 2022 that the narrative can be flipped. Turning young players into viable big leaguers is key for a club that doesn’t throw around piles of cash in free agency. The recent lack of success in that regard has hurt them and they’ll need to do better somehow.

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While the Tigers and Royals seem likely to be using this year to evaluate younger players, the other three clubs all have a plausible path to winning the division. The Guardians are reigning champs and have added Bell to give them some extra thump. The Sox have stars like Tim Anderson, Luis Robert and Dylan Cease but just need everyone to stay healthy. It’s a similar story for the Twins who have elite players like Correa and Byron Buxton but need to keep them and others off the injured list. The three clubs are separated by just 4.5 projected WAR, according to FanGraphs, which points to an exciting battle in the upcoming campaign.

What do you think? Can the Guardians repeat or will one of their competitors surpass them? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Who Will Win The AL Central In 2023
Guardians 47.06% (5,232 votes)
Twins 26.00% (2,891 votes)
White Sox 18.31% (2,036 votes)
Tigers 4.62% (514 votes)
Royals 4.00% (445 votes)
Total Votes: 11,118

Tigers’ Uncertain Outfield Offers Chance For Young Players To Carve Out A Role

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The Tigers have had a fairly quiet offseason. First-year baseball operations leader Scott Harris has shied away from long-term additions on the heels of the team’s “Murphy’s law” 2022 campaign. The club took a couple upside dice rolls on Matt Boyd and Michael Lorenzen for the rotation, likely with an eye towards a possible deadline deal if they get off to strong starts. They’ve shipped out Gregory Soto and Joe Jiménez and could consider further subtractions from the bullpen.

Detroit hasn’t added any slam-dunk regulars on the position player side over the past few months. They brought in a couple upper level players in the Soto deal who could factor into the mix. No one acquired this offseason should be guaranteed an everyday job, and the lineup-wide underperformance last year means there’s plenty of uncertainty around the diamond. That’s particularly true in the outfield, where Detroit has a handful of options who could vie for a spot in A.J. Hinch’s lineup early in the year.

Lineup Locks

Greene’s a lock for the center field job if healthy. The former fifth overall pick has raked throughout his minor league career and entered 2022 as one of the top handful of prospects in the game. He looked to be trending towards an MLB job out of camp last year but a Spring Training foot fracture kept him on the injured list and required some ramp-up time at Triple-A Toledo.

The Tigers promoted the left-handed hitter in the middle of June. He was the club’s center fielder from then forward, starting 93 games. Greene hit .253/.321/.362 with five home runs through his first 418 MLB plate appearances. While it wasn’t the eye-popping debut enjoyed by some other rookies in the class, hitting at a roughly league level in the majors as a 21-year-old is no small feat. He hit a few too many grounders but posted above-average exit velocities and solid contact skills. It’s a strong offensive foundation and he’s arguably the most important player in the organization. Some prospect evaluators have suggested he might eventually be a better fit for left field than center, but there’s no real reason for Detroit to move him to a corner in what’s going to be an evaluative year anyhow.

Like Greene, Meadows will also be an everyday player if healthy. Unfortunately, he’s coming off an almost totally lost season. Acquired from the Rays during Spring Training, he only appeared in 36 games with Detroit during his first year as a Tiger. He battled vertigo-like symptoms early in the year, then lost time after contracting COVID-19. While attempting to ramp back up, he suffered strains in both Achilles tendons. Towards the end of the season, he and the club agreed to shut down his rehab so he could focus on his mental health.

Getting Meadows right both physically and mentally is obviously the top priority and a prerequisite to him rediscovering his past success. He’s shown the ability to be an impact left-handed power bat at his best, twice topping 25 home runs during his time in Tampa Bay. Meadows is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter and should get extended run somewhere, assuming he’s ready to return to the diamond. With two remaining seasons of arbitration control, he could be a deadline trade candidate if he gets back on track.

Immediate MLB Mix

Baddoo looked like a great find for Detroit’s scouting staff in 2021. A Rule 5 draftee from the Minnesota system, he stuck on the roster and played in 124 games as a rookie. Despite making the jump directly from High-A, the left-handed hitter put up a solid .259/.330/.436 line with 13 homers and 18 stolen bases over his first 461 plate appearances in the big leagues. It’d have been a strong showing for any player but was particularly impressive for a Rule 5 selection.

The Tigers secured his long-term contractual rights and opened last season with Baddoo in center field. His second year against big league arms was a significant struggle. He stumbled to a .204/.289/.269 line across 225 trips to the plate, seeing his power production and hard contact rate decline. The Tigers optioned him to Toledo in early May. He responded to the demotion extremely well, hitting .300/.405/.500 in 30 games during his first real upper minors action. Detroit recalled him around the All-Star Break but he again hit at a below-average level down the stretch.

Baddoo is still just 24. He’s shown a patient plate approach at the MLB level and plays plus defense in the corner outfield (though he’s stretched in center field). His strong Triple-A performance means 2022 wasn’t a complete lost year, though he’ll need to make more of an offensive impact against MLB pitching to establish himself. He still has two minor league options remaining, so the Tigers can keep him in Detroit or Toledo depending on his performance.

A former 19th-round draftee, Carpenter wasn’t regarded by most evaluators as more than an organizational depth player heading into last season. He altered that perception with a breakout showing in the upper minors. Between Double-A Erie and Toledo, Carpenter connected on 30 home runs with a massive .313/.380/.645 line over 400 plate appearances. He earned his first MLB call in August and hit another six longballs with a .252/.310/.485 slash over 31 games.

The 25-year-old has put himself firmly in the mix for playing time. There’s still some skepticism about his viability as a long-term regular, though. He’s limited to the corners and regarded as a below-average defender there, raising the possibility he’s best suited for DH work. He has big power but an aggressive offensive approach that could limit his on-base marks. Baseball America named him the #8 prospect in the Detroit system last month, calling him a possible low-end regular or lefty platoon bat. While that would still be a great outcome for a 19th-round pick, Carpenter should get a chance to see if he can outperform that projection this year. He still has all three options remaining.

Acquired from the Phillies in the Soto deal, the 26-year-old Vierling steps right into the outfield equation. He’s appeared in 151 games with Philadelphia over the past two seasons, hitting .260/.309/.374 through 434 plate appearances. After accounting for the Phils’ hitter-friendly ballpark, that checked in 12 percentage points below league average, as measured by wRC+. He hasn’t hit for a ton of power and has walked at just a 6.2% clip, tamping down his on-base numbers.

While Vierling hasn’t established himself against big league pitching, he’s shown some interesting traits. He’s made hard contact at an excellent 48.2% clip while demonstrating strong bat-to-ball skills. A right-handed hitter, he’s posted solid numbers against lefties (.307/.343/.423) while struggling with same-handed pitchers (.227/.285/.339). Vierling bounced around the diamond in Philadelphia, playing all three outfield spots with occasional looks on the infield dirt.

Public defensive metrics haven’t liked his work in center field. He’s probably better suited for a corner while covering center field and second or third base in a pinch. It’s at least easy to see him carving out a multi-positional role against southpaws with the potential to take on more responsibility if he can translate his promising underlying offensive indicators into more consistent production. He has one remaining option season.

Multi-Positional Options

Also part of the Soto deal with Philadelphia, Maton’s a left-handed hitting utilityman. He’s mostly an infielder but could see some time in the corner outfield if the Tigers are looking for ways to get him in the lineup. He owns a .254/.330/.434 line in 87 career MLB games and posted a strong .261/.368/.436 showing in 250 Triple-A plate appearances last year.

It’s essentially the same story with Kreidler, whom BA ranked as Detroit’s #9 prospect. He has spent virtually his entire career as an infielder, playing mostly shortstop in the minor leagues. Kreidler’s professional outfield experience consists of two MLB innings of center field work last season, so it’s possible Detroit doesn’t consider him a real option for the outfield. It’s not uncommon to see multi-positional infielders eventually branch out into corner outfield work, though, as expanded defensive flexibility increases their utility off the bench. Kreidler’s a good enough athlete it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Tigers experiment with him in the outfield at some point. The more straightforward path to playing time for both Maton and Kreidler is at second/third base, though.

Haase has some left field experience in his MLB career. He’s primarily a bat-first catcher who has spent the bulk of his time behind the plate. As things stand, he looks like Detroit’s primary catcher. If a player like Donny Sands, Jake Rogers or non-roster invitee Andrew Knapp seizes the bulk of the catching time, Haase could factor into the corner outfield mix more frequently.

Late-Season Possibilities

Detroit also has a pair of notable outfield prospects who could factor into the mix in 2023. Former second-round pick Parker Meadows had a .275/.354/.466 line with 16 longballs and 17 stolen bases in 113 games for Erie last year. He walked at a strong 10.6% clip while cutting his strikeout rate to a career-low 18.4%. He just turned 23 and is already on the 40-man roster.

Justyn-Henry Malloy, 23 next month, came over from the Braves in the Jiménez trade. The right-handed hitter traversed three minor league levels in 2022, briefly reaching Triple-A after strong showings in both High-A and Double-A. Malloy walked at a massive 18.1% clip en route to a .268/.403/.421 line over 54 Double-A contests. He’s not yet on the 40-man.

Both Meadows and Malloy figure to start the upcoming season with Toledo. There’s no need for Detroit to push either player to the majors before the front office is convinced they’re ready. With another strong upper minors performance, either could put themselves on the map for a midseason promotion. In the interim, the Tigers figure to get looks at players like Baddoo, Carpenter and Vierling to sort out where that group fits in the long-term picture.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

The Cardinals Would Be A Good Trade Partner For The Marlins (Or Just About Any Team)

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It’s been largely quiet from the Cardinals since the team inked longtime division rival Willson Contreras to a five-year contract, officially tabbing him as the heir to franchise icon Yadier Molina. Filling the void left by Molina was clearly the top priority for the Cards this winter, though they were also loosely tied to the market for the top available shortstops and some free-agent pitchers.

With Contreras now signed, a look up and down the roster in St. Louis reveals a strong group that’s likely to contend for another NL Central crown in 2023. The Cardinals could use another left-handed reliever — Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Zack Britton and Brad Hand are among the still-available names — and perhaps they could stand to find a more potent backup to Contreras. Broadly speaking, however, it’s a deep and talented roster with a nice group of relievers, plenty of rotation depth and a good bit of positional flexibility, thanks to the versatility of players like Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan.

All that said, it also doesn’t feel as though the Cardinals are done this winter. For one thing, their entire rotation, aside from lefty Steven Matz, will reach free agency next winter. The Cards could also stand to add another bat to the mix; while young sluggers Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman offer upside as candidates who can spend some time at DH, neither has quite established himself as a proven big league bat just yet.

In left field, the Cardinals have a quality option in Tyler O’Neill — if he’s healthy. A shoulder impingement and two hamstring strains limited O’Neill to 96 games and quite possibly contributed to a diminished .228/.308/.392 batting line. In center, 24-year-old Dylan Carlson is a former top prospect whose numbers were solid in ’22 but not quite what they were in 2021. Lars Nootbaar had a breakout second half in right field.  It’s a talented trio, but not to the extent of the Cardinals’ star-studded infield. Moveover, the Cardinals have other young outfield options waiting in the wings, with Alec Burleson already having made his debut, Moises Gomez all but ready on the heels of a huge minor league season, and uber-prospect Jordan Walker also looming in Triple-A.

It feels like, for all the young talent the Cards have, there’s room for at least one more notable bat to be plugged into the lineup. And, with so many starting pitchers set to reach the open market (or, in Adam Wainwright’s case, retire) next offseason, the Cardinals would probably love to add some controllable pitching.

Looking through the Cardinals’ depth chart, there’s virtually no player who could both be conceivably available and also unattainable for the Cards. The Redbirds have prospects and young, MLB-ready talent at virtually any position, which sets them up for innumerable trade possibilities, be it with the Marlins or another club.

Let’s run through some of the talent they could dangle when seeking an impact bat or high-end pitcher to slot into the rotation:

A Top Catching Prospect

Ivan Herrera was viewed as the Cardinals’ catcher of the future for the past several years, but with Contreras now signed for a half decade, a cloud has been cast on his role with the club. Herrera could still function as a high-quality backup to Contreras, and Contreras is a good enough hitter that he could slot in as a DH on days he’s not behind the plate. Perhaps that opens the door for Herrera to carve out a larger role than most backup catchers might hold, but this is a 22-year-old who just batted .268/.374/.396 against older Triple-A competition and ranks as the game’s No. 84 prospect over at Baseball America. He’s a nice safety net and a potentially very overqualified backup to Contreras… but he’d also be highly appealing to any club lacking a long-term option behind the plate.

Outfielders Galore

As mentioned above, any of O’Neill, Carlson or Nootbaar would hold appeal to other clubs, albeit to varying extents. O’Neill has just two years of club control remaining and is coming off a down season … but he also mashed at a .286/.352/.560 clip and clubbed 34 homers while playing strong defense in 2021. Plenty of teams are looking for a righty bat and might be intrigued to gamble on a rebound. Both Carlson (who was mentioned in Juan Soto rumors) and Nootbaar (who was reportedly of interest to the Jays and A’s in their talks about catching trades this offseason) offer even more club control and plenty of long-term upside.

Trading anyone from that group would absolutely require the Cardinals to receive big league talent in another area: be it a more impactful, established offensive presence to slot into the outfield or perhaps a quality starting pitcher with multiple years of club control remaining. In either instance, any of O’Neill, Carlson or Nootbaar would probably be just one of multiple players moved as part of the return for an established big leaguer.

Beyond their stable of current MLB outfielders, the Cards have Burleson, Gomez and Walker. Burleson, the No. 68 prospect on Baseball America’s Top 100 list, struggled in 53 plate appearances during last year’s MLB debut but posted a massive .331/.372/.532 slash in 109 Triple-A games. Gomez played 60 games apiece in Double-A and Triple-A, hitting a combined .294/.371/.624 with 39 home runs. Walker, a 2020 first-round pick who ranks among the sport’s top ten overall prospects on just about any publication, is perhaps the most “untouchable” of all the Cardinals’ young hitters. However, like Gomez and Burleson, he also offers a near-MLB replacement should the Cards move one of their current big league outfielders in a trade package. Walker was drafted as a third baseman, but Nolan Arenado’s presence means he’ll likely debut as an outfielder. After hitting .306/.388/.510 as a 20-year-old and one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s probably not far off.

Young Infielders

The St. Louis infield is mostly set with Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt at the corners, Tommy Edman at shortstop and Brendan Donovan at second base. It’s unlikely the Cards would move anyone from that group, though if you wanted to argue that Donovan, the third-place NL Rookie of the Year finisher, could be included in a package for an impact player, that’s at least loosely feasible. The A’s reportedly asked about him in talks for Sean Murphy, although perhaps the fact that the Cardinals balked at Oakland’s asking price tells us most of what we need to know about Donovan’s availability (or lack thereof).

It’s a strong group, and both Edman and Donovan can be deployed virtually anywhere on the diamond. Each played at least five positions in 2022 alone. Perhaps Donovan will ultimately settle into some type of super-utility role, but that’d require a step forward from another young infielder — which the Cardinals just so happen to possess.

Nolan Gorman didn’t exactly explode onto the scene in his rookie campaign, but he held his own with a .226/.300/.420 batting line and 14 homers in 313 plate appearances. Much of his production came early on and was followed by a strikeout-laden slump — he fanned in 32.3% of his plate appearances — but Gorman is another former top prospect who also tattooed Triple-A pitching in the form of a .275/.330/.585 output, including 16 home runs in just 188 plate appearances. Originally a third baseman, he shifted over to second base because of Arenado. He now has a fair bit of experience at both spots.

Down on the farm, 20-year-old Masyn Winn occupies the No. 56 spot on BA’s Top 100 list. Like Walker, he’s already spent a full season in Double-A. He didn’t hit quite as well, but his .258/.349/.432 output was league-average by measure of wRC+ (100), and like Walker, he was one of the league’s youngest players. BA lauds Winn for having “by far the strongest throwing arm in the minor leagues” and touts him as a plus-plus runner and gives him a chance to be an above-average defender at shortstop. Winn was drafted as a two-way player, but he’s only pitched one inning in pro ball.

Starting Pitching Prospects

It’s perhaps counterintuitive to have just mentioned how the Cardinals need controllable starting pitching and then tout a deep crop of quality pitching prospects from which they could trade. But attrition among pitching prospects is even greater than position players. That’s not to say those arms don’t have value — of course they do — but it’s easier to bank on those arms converting when hoping to fill one rotation spot. Hoping to fill three to four rotation spots with in-house prospects is nothing short of insanity.

The Cardinals aren’t short on intriguing arms, with Gordon Graceffo, Matthew Liberatore and Tink Hence all actively ranking, or having recently been ranked on various top-100 lists around the industry. Hence (No. 57) and Graceffo (66) are just a few spots apart on BA’s top 100 at the moment.

Both Liberatore and fellow lefty Zack Thompson (the No. 19 pick in 2019) have reached the Major Leagues already but have not yet established themselves. Liberatore posted ERAs north of 5.00 in both Triple-A and in 34 2/3 big league innings last season, but he’s still just 23 years old and has at least six years of club control — plus a pair of minor league option years remaining. Thompson threw an identical 34 2/3 Major League innings in 2022 but did so primarily out of the bullpen. He also pitched to a pristine 2.08 ERA, and while his 19.9% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate both leave something to be desired, he averages just shy of 95 mph with his heater and did rack up an impressive 53.7% ground-ball rate.

St. Louis has further depth in the form of righty Dakota Hudson, who’s been pushed out of their rotation but is a ground-ball machine with two years of club control remaining. Hudson has just a 4.31 ERA and 13.3% strikeout rate since returning from Tommy John surgery, and his once-blistering sinker averaged just 91.6 mph post-surgery. Still, he’s a ready-made fourth or fifth starter candidate with three option years remaining. Jake Woodford is cut from a similar cloth as a low-strikeout, ground-ball oriented pitcher who could slot into the back of a rotation, although he also posted a 2.23 ERA in 48 1/3 innings out of the St. Louis bullpen this past season (albeit with some good fortune on balls in play and a fluky-low home run rate).

Some of these arms will be earmarked for opportunities in the 2024 rotation, and there’s a good chance some will see their stock dip after an injury or a step back in performance. Still, their present-day value gives the Cardinals the opportunity to condense some of that talent into a trade for a more established player.

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Overall, the Cardinals’ wealth of young talent is remarkable for a perennially competitive team that hasn’t drafted higher than 18th overall in the past 15 years and, within the past four years, has pulled off trades for in-their-prime stars like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. It’s an excellent position in which to find themselves as an organization, but if there’s one “downside” (and I’m using that term loosely), it’s the timing of this surfeit of young talent.

The trade market, in general, is quite bleak right now. Miami’s quartet of available arms has dominated headlines, but there’s little else of substance on the market. The Pirates reportedly have a sky-high asking price on Bryan Reynolds that makes him unlikely to be moved in the first place, and one can only imagine they’d ask for even more from a division rival. There are certainly other names that could change hands between now and Opening Day, but the obvious candidates aren’t clear upgrades to the Cardinals. The Mariners have a pair of back-end starters (Chris Flexen, Marco Gonzales), while the Twins (Max Kepler) and A’s (Seth Brown) have some outfielders who could be available. There’s just not a ton to be excited about on the trade market right now.

That shouldn’t stop the Cardinals’ front office from trying to force other teams’ hands and convince them to part with starting pitching help or perhaps a slugging bat that might not be a natural trade candidate at first glance. Failing that, the Cardinals are as well positioned as just about any team in the league to swing a deal with the Marlins whenever Miami finally make what feels like an inevitable trade.

Big Hype Prospects: Florial, Tiedemann, Amaya, Tovar, Vargas

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For this week’s post, let’s look at some prospects who might be affected by recent rumors….

Five BHPs In The News

Estevan Florial, 25, OF, NYY (MLB)
(AAA) 461 PA, 15 HR, 39 SB, .283/.368/.481

Although Florial has spent parts of three seasons in the Majors, he has just 63 plate appearances to his name. The left-handed hitter has yet to find success in New York, batting a combined .185/.302/.278. Now out of minor league options, Florial is poised to participate in a good old-fashioned Spring Training battle for oufield playing time. Barring a trade, the Yankees are running out of free-agent challengers for in-house options like Florial, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa for left field. They also added Willie Calhoun and Rafael Ortega as non-roster depth.

It’s easy to spot Florial’s biggest weakness; no matter the quality of competition, he consistently posts a high swinging strike rate. Florial is also a disciplined hitter, which means he takes his fair share of looking strikes. These traits contribute to an over 30 percent strikeout rate. Successful hitters of this type (i.e. Kyle Schwarber) have an excellent quality-of-contact profile, but since Florial hasn’t yet demonstrated an ability make such contact, his future as a Major League regular is dependent on skills growth. Should his strikeout rates and/or quality of contact improve, he has easy double-plus speed and enough raw power to become an entertaining regular. Even if Florial remains a role player, his speed dovetails nicely with the new baserunning-related rules. Even if playing time might be hard to come by in the crowded New York outfield, Florial could serve as a useful pinch-runner and defensive replacement.

Ricky Tiedemann, 20, SP, TOR (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 78.2 IP, 13.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.17 ERA

A 2021 third-round draftee, Tiedemann is on the shortlist with the likes of Andrew Painter and Eury Perez for best pitching prospect aged 20 and under. We’ve covered him a few times within the confines of this column. The Blue Jays appear headed toward a Spring Training battle for the fifth starter role, and Tiedemann is an attractive (albeit longshot) option for the job. The southpaw has three plus pitches, although reports suggest he could do with more time in the minors to better learn how to command his offerings. An Opening Day roster spot seems implausible, but we could see Tiedemann in Toronto by midseason. One caveat is his workload, as he averaged just over four innings per start last season and typically faced between 17 and 20 batters. Between low per-outing and total innings, Tiedemann might be more focused on stretching out than contributing in 2023.

Jacob Amaya, 24, SS, MIA (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 567 PA, 17 HR, 6 SB, .261/.369/.427

We covered Amaya a little over a month ago when speaking of the Dodgers middle infield depth. The skinny is straightforward – he’s a patient hitter with a history of modest exit velocities and too much ground ball contact. The profile is that of a second-division starter or utility man. Acquired by the Marlins as the return for Miguel Rojas, Amaya should find his way to the Majors at some point this season – possibly Opening Day. Unlike higher-profile prospects, the Marlins have little incentive to worry about Amaya’s club control. He could potentially form a platoon with Joey Wendle or join Jon Berti and Jordan Groshans as flexible bench depth.

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (MLB)
(AA) 295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Tovar has just 23 plate appearances in Triple-A and another 35 in the Majors. Even so, the Rockies seem intent to include Tovar on the Opening Day roster. Colorado explored at least one trade of infielder Brendan Rodgers, and the free agent options to fill a middle infield role are beginning to dwindle. Even with Rodgers in the fold, Tovar could still garner a starting job. The shortstop is expected to have some issues with swinging strikes early in his career, particularly with breaking balls outside of the zone. An aggressive approach might help him to avoid strikeouts.

Miguel Vargas, 23, UT, LAD (MLB)
(AAA) 520 PA, 17 HR, 16 SB, .304/.404/.511

Major League pitchers figured out how to work above Vargas’ barrel in a limited 50 plate appearance trial last season. Vargas has both discipline and a feel for contact. The Dodgers are adept at deploying their hitters in beneficial matchups. Look for Vargas to form a very loose platoon with the likes of Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, and James Outman across multiple positions. His reputation for barreling baseballs suggests he’ll adapt to high fastballs. If not, he can still be used against pitchers who lack that particular weapon or otherwise have poor command. He’s considered particularly adept at hitting breaking balls.

Three More

JJ Bleday, MIA (25): No longer rookie-eligible after making 238 plate appearances last season, Bleday nonetheless remains an unproven prospect with an uncertain future in Miami. Bleday did well to adapt his swing after a disappointing 2021 campaign, but he is an extreme flyball hitter who seems destined to require a friendlier home venue. The Marlins’ rumored interest in Max Kepler could affect Bleday’s opportunities in 2023.

Stone Garrett, WSH (27): A late-bloomer who signed with the Nationals early in the offseason, Garrett could be the next Patrick Wisdom. The sluggers aren’t perfect clones of one another, but they’re known for whiffing often and putting a charge into it when they connect. Garrett has an over-aggressive approach and questionable breaking ball recognition.

Brett Baty, NYM (23): Now that Carlos Correa has officially re-signed with the Twins, Baty should be back in the Mets long-term plans. The patient lefty hitter is expected to bat for a high average. Between power-suppressant CitiField and a grounder-oriented approach, Baty’s high exit velocities might not parlay into many home runs. His third base defense is considered below average, though I would hazard his baseline is higher than that of Alec Bohm. If Bohm can work his way up to acceptable defense, Baty should be able to do the same.

MLBTR Poll: The NL East Favorite

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The National League East is shaping up as one of baseball’s more competitive divisions in 2023. The defending champion Braves, Mets and Phillies have all made big moves to bolster their already strong rosters, while the Marlins will lean on a quality rotation to try and be competitive. The Nationals are, of course, in full rebuild mode and won’t be among the division’s best this year.

There’s still a chance of one or two significant moves to be made in this division. It’s been reported that Miami has made four of their starting pitchers available in trades, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them ship out a starter to bring in an offensive upgrade, possibly an outfielder.

Nonetheless, let’s take a look at each team’s off-season to see how they stack up in this division heading into the new season (teams listed in last year’s standings order).

Atlanta Braves (101-61)

In: C Sean Murphy, LHP Lucas Luetge, OF Jordan Luplow, OF Eli White, LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Joe Jimenez.

Out: SS Dansby Swanson, RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Darren O’Day, RHP Luke Jackson, OF Adam Duvall, C William Contreras, C Manny Pina.

The Braves big splash of the off-season was their trade for Murphy. In typical Braves fashion, they wasted little time in extending him as well, signing him to a six-year, $73MM pact to lock him in as their catcher of the future. The Braves weren’t struggling at catcher, but the arrival of Murphy is still an upgrade over Contreras and Pina, who were both shipped out in the deal. He’ll join a lineup that is largely the same as the one that won 101 games last season. The big hole remains at shortstop and in left field. Swanson departed for the Cubs in free agency, and the team could either rely on Orlando Arcia or rookie Vaughn Grissom to take over. Eddie Rosario was worth -1.1 fWAR in 2022, but the Braves are paying him $9MM this year and it seems likely he’ll be back as the starter in left. Luplow could get some opportunities to take the starting job on his new team, but he posted a wRC+ of just 78 last season.

In the rotation, Max Fried will be back to lead a starting corp that also features Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider and veteran Charlie Morton. A wretched run of Achilles injuries meant Mike Soroka has only made three starts in the past three seasons, but he’s back and if he can stay fit and return to his 2019 performance he gives the Braves a quality fifth option. The acquisitions of Luetge and Jimenez gives the Braves another couple of quality relief arms to cover the departure of Jansen in free agency.

All told it’s a quality roster that doesn’t appear to be weaker the 2022, but will it be enough to hold off other teams in the division?

New York Mets (101-61)

In: RHP Justin Verlander, LHP Brooks Raley, RHP Zach Greene, LHP Jose Quintana, RHP David Robertson, RHP Kodai Senga, C Omar Narvaez, SS Danny Mendick, RHP Stephen Ridings, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham.

Out: RHP Jacob deGrom, RHP Chris Bassitt, RHP, Seth Lugo, RHP Trevor May, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Tyler Naquin, LHP Joely Rodriguez, RHP Taijuan Walker, 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Mychal Givens, C James McCann.

The Mets effectively had to overhaul their rotation and bullpen this winter, after a series of major departures in both areas. In a fashion befitting the Steve Cohen-era Mets, they did so in expensive fashion. The Mets quickly offset the departures of deGrom, Bassitt and Walker by signing Verlander, Quintana and Senga to big deals and ensuring their rotation is at least as strong as last year. In the bullpen they re-signed Adam Ottavino, brought in David Robertson and made a series of smaller trades and waiver claims to rebuild their relief group.

Offensively, the Mets didn’t have too many moves to make. The big hole was in the outfield, but the team addressed that by bringing back Brandon Nimmo on an eight-year, $162MM deal. They came close to adding Carlos Correa, but that move broke down over the much-publicized medical concerns. Correa would’ve certainly been a boost to their offense, but they’re still in a good spot without him. They could probably still do with another outfielder, and it’s been reported that they’re interested in the remaining free agent options there (Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall etc).

The Mets led the East for the majority of 2022 and they’ll again be up there in ’23. Perhaps one more major move (like Correa) would’ve sealed them as division favorites, but they’re still in a very good spot as is.

Philadelphia Phillies (87-75)

In: LHP Gregory Soto, INF Kody Clemens, RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Matt Strahm, SS Trea Turner, OF Jake Cave,

Out: OF Matt Vierling, INF Phil Maton, C Donny Sands, INF Jean Segura, RHP Noah Syndergaard, LHP Brad Hand, RHP Chris Devenski, RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP David Robertson, RHP Zach Eflin, RHP Corey Knebel.

The Phillies went all the way to the World Series in 2022, but they still finished 14 games back of the Braves and Mets in the division so had a bit of work to do to try and close that gap going into this season. The addition of Turner gives them a superstar at the top of their lineup alongside Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and co. If youngsters Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh can take a step forward at the plate this year they’ll have a much deeper lineup. They’ll hope they can do enough to stick with the Braves and Mets in the first half of the season, before welcoming back star Bryce Harper from injury at some stage mid-season.

On the pitching side of things, Walker slots in as a quality third option behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in the rotation. The bullpen lost a number of players this winter, but the additions of Strahm, Soto and Kimbrel to a group that already has Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado and Andrew Bellatti should make that area of the team a strength in season.

All told, the Phillies do look a better unit than they were to start 2022, but it remains to be seen whether or not that’ll be enough to make up 14 games on the Braves and Mets – who certainly haven’t taken a step backwards themselves this winter.

Miami Marlins (69-93)

In: INF Jacob Amaya, INF Jean Segura, OF Jake Mangum, RHP JT Chargois, SS Xavier Edwards, RHP Johnny Cueto.

Out: SS Miguel Rojas, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham, 3B Brian Anderson, RHP Nick Neidert.

The Marlins have had a quiet off-season, but they could be one of the busiest teams in all of baseball, let alone the NL East, between now and the start of the season. That’s because they’ve reportedly made four of their starters – Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo – available in trades. That speculation has only intensified in the wake of them agreeing to a deal with veteran starter Johnny Cueto.

As such, it makes sense to start with a look at their rotation as things stand. Sandy Alcantara isn’t going anywhere and he’ll be back to lead the rotation after winning the Cy Young award in 2022. Beyond Alcantara will be Cueto and then some combination of the four previously mentioned starters. The fact team also has Sixto Sanchez returning as well as Braxton Garrett available shows how deep their rotation options are, but also that they could feasibly deal two starters and still be in a good position in the rotation. In any event, pitching should be a strength for the Marlins in 2023.

Presumably any trade of a starter would be to add a bat to their lineup. The signing of Segura likely filled out their infield, but the team could certainly do with an outfield upgrade. Bryan Reynolds is the highest profile option there, but other options on the could include Max Kepler or a free agent addition such as Pham or Duvall.

The Marlins do look capable of topping last year’s 69-win total as is, but it’d be interesting to see how they’d go with a deeper lineup, and whether or not a swing-for-the-fences-type move such as trading for Reynolds would propel them into the Wildcard conversation.

Washington Nationals (55-107)

In: OF Corey Dickerson, 1B Dominic Smith, SS Jeter Downs, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Stone Garrett, 3B Jeimer Candelario.

Out: 1B/DH Luke Voit, RHP Steve Cishek, RHP Will Harris, 2B Cesar Hernandez, RHP Joe Ross, DH Nelson Cruz, LHP Sean Doolittle, RHP Anibal Sanchez, RHP Erick Fedde, RHP Tommy Romero, RHP A.J. Alexy.

After eight-straight winning seasons between 2012-19 culminated in a championship in 2019, the Nationals are in full rebuild mode. They lost 107 games in 2022, and wouldn’t be a surprise to see them lose a similar amount in 2023. While the new schedule calls for fewer divisional matchups, the Nats certainly won’t be helped by regularly playing in a division with a number of quality teams.

Offensively, the Nationals will look for contributions from youngsters CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz – two players they’ll hope to build their next playoff roster around. They’ve also brought in a couple of cheaper bounceback candidates in Smith and Candelario, and both could turn themselves into trade chips at the deadline. It’s a similar story on the pitching side, where they’ll hope Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Cade Cavalli can show they can be long-term rotation pieces for the team.

While the Nationals are the clear favorite to prop up the group, it should be an interesting battle in the NL East, particularly with the Braves, Mets and Phillies. What do you think? Who will finish top of the East? Have your say in the poll below.

Who Will Win The NL East In 2023?
Atlanta Braves 49.16% (6,766 votes)
New York Mets 28.83% (3,968 votes)
Philadelphia Phillies 17.83% (2,454 votes)
Washington Nationals 2.62% (361 votes)
Miami Marlins 1.56% (215 votes)
Total Votes: 13,764

Teams Seeking Infield Help Should Call The Rockies

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Earlier in the offseason, it was reported that Rockies infielder Brendan Rodgers was a name discussed in trade talks with the Marlins centering around Miami’s cadre of controllable starting pitchers. The interest from both parties was understandable. The Marlins, deep in both starting pitching prospects and big league starters, are light on position player depth and in dire need of augmentation to the lineup. The Rockies, conversely, have struggled to develop pitching talent but have infield depth both in terms of current big leaguers and MLB-ready prospects. Pitching is a perennial Achilles heel for the Rockies. A trade seems sensible enough on paper.

However, a deal hasn’t come together. Rodgers remains in Denver, and the Marlins continue to discuss their stockpile of arms with teams throughout the league. Perhaps the two parties don’t see eye-to-eye on Rodgers’ value. Perhaps they disagree on the value of Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers.

The lack of an agreement between the two parties doesn’t mean that there’s no sense in a trade of Rodgers. While it’s true that the Rockies needn’t feel any urgency to trade the former No. 3 overall pick, who has three years of club control remaining, that need for pitching still persists. And, at least on paper, Colorado is positioned to withstand the loss of Rodgers.

Beyond the fact that Ryan McMahon can handle third base or second base, the Rockies have prospect Ezequiel Tovar effectively ready for a Major League look. Assuming Tovar handles shortstop and McMahon is comfortable playing either third or second base, the free-agent market offers palatable replacement options if Rodgers were to be subtracted from the infield. Brian Anderson and Josh Harrison are just two free agents who could help fill a short-term void while the Rockies await the development of prospects like Warming Bernabel and Adael Amador, who could be MLB-ready by 2024 or 2025.

The simple fact of the matter is that Colorado isn’t likely to contend in 2023 — not with a deep Padres club and a perennial (albeit somewhat diminished) playoff threat in the Dodgers lurking atop the division. The Giants haven’t necessarily made the type of waves that’ll make them a division contender, but they’re probably a better club now than at the end of the 2022 season after signing Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Taylor Rogers (while also losing several key pieces — none bigger than Carlos Rodon). The D-backs are more of a long shot to contend, but they’ve added some veteran help and will graduate no fewer than three high-end prospects to the Majors in 2023 (Gabriel Moreno, Corbin Carroll, Brandon Pfaadt).

Bottom line: a contending season for the Rockies is almost impossible to imagine. Rockies fans and certainly their front office/ownership may disagree, but it’s tough to see how the additions of Pierce Johnson and Brent Suter, and the re-signing of Jose Urena dramatically alter the fortunes of a team that finished 68-94 in 2022.

That grim reality doesn’t mean the Rockies should simply sell Rodgers and others with three or fewer years of club control for the highest offer, but Rodgers specifically is in a position where he could perhaps fetch considerable value. The free-agent market this winter featured four star-caliber shortstops, but one of the three (Xander Bogaerts) went to a club (the Padres) that didn’t even have a clear need for a shortstop. Carlos Correa took a bizarre, winding road back to Minneapolis. That signing, plus the Twins’ acquisition of Kyle Farmer, took two viable shortstop options for interested parties and placed them on the same roster. Meanwhile, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson wound up in Philadelphia and Chicago (the north side), respectively. That sequence of events left several clubs in need of middle infield depth standing empty-handed.

Rodgers, 26, isn’t Correa, Bogaerts, Turner or Swanson — or at least he hasn’t been yet. He’s a former No. 3 overall pick and was once one of the sport’s top 15 overall prospects according to multiple outlets, but his performance to this point hasn’t quite justified that hype. Still, he’s in his prime and has three years of control, defensive aptitude at both middle-infield positions and a strong batted-ball profile that could be a portent for further success.

Over the past two seasons, Rodgers has turned in a combined .274/.326/.434 batting line with 28 homers, 51 doubles and six triples in 996 trips to the plate. The fact that he plays his home games at Coors Field means that park- and league-adjusted metrics like wRC+ weight that offensive performance at five percent below league average. Rodgers, indeed, has struggled on the road in his career, but we’ve seen plenty of examples of Rockies players with pronounced home-road splits leaving Denver and finding success elsewhere. There have been myriad studies performed about the manner in which playing home games at altitude can impact performance on the road, but moving out of an at-altitude home field environment can counteract some of those struggles. Matt Holliday, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu and others have left the Rockies and gone on to fare well in other cities.

Beyond a generally solid string of results in Colorado, Rodgers possesses an intriguing batted-ball profile. Statcast ranks him well above average in terms of hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, expected batting average, chase rate and whiff rate. Rodgers doesn’t draw walks in droves, but he also has plus bat-to-ball skills (17.6% strikeout rate), rarely chases off the plate and hits the ball pretty hard (90 mph average exit velo, 45.9% hard-hit rate). It’s fair to wonder whether there’s another offensive gear to be unlocked.

Defensively, Rodgers grades anywhere from above-average to elite. He’s spent the bulk of his big league career at second base, but that’s largely been in deference to Trevor Story. Rodgers posted a mammoth 22 Defensive Runs Saved and 8.0 Ultimate Zone Rating at second base in 2022, and while Statcast’s Outs Above Average took a more measured view, that metric still rated him as three outs better than a standard second baseman. In 220 innings at shortstop, he’s posted decent marks in DRS (1), UZR (1.7) and OAA (-1).

Whether other club view Rodgers as a potential shortstop who’s been blocked at his position or as the high-end second base defender he was in 2022, he has clear value. Rodgers has proven capable of hitting for a solid average and thus delivering a quality OBP (even in spite of pedestrian walk rates). He’s shown some power, but his exit velocity and hard-hit rate suggest there could be more in the tank. He agreed to a $2.7MM salary earlier today  — in part, a reflection of injuries that have slowed his accumulation of counting stats. And, he’s controllable through the 2025 season.

All in all, it’s a nice package that other teams surely covet. It’s understandable that the Rockies would be reluctant to part with Rodgers, particularly if they believe it’s possible he’ll take another step forward in 2023. General manager Bill Schmidt was the team’s scouting director when Rodgers was drafted, after all, so it’d be no surprise to hear that Schmidt believed Rodgers hadn’t yet reached his peak.

At the same time, the Rockies are in a tough spot with regard to their pitching staff. German Marquez is entering the final guaranteed season of his contract and just turned in a career-worst showing in 2022. Kyle Freeland responded to his surprising contract extension with 174 2/3 innings of 4.53 ERA ball. Antonio Senzatela will miss the beginning of the season following a ligament tear in his knee, and he’d struggled in the wake of his own extension even prior to that injury. The third, fourth and fifth spots in the Rockies’ rotation are likely to be held down by the aforementioned journeyman Urena, Austin Gomber (5.56 ERA in 124 2/3 innings in 2022) and Ryan Feltner (5.83 ERA in 97 1/3 innings). Pitching reinforcements from the farm don’t appear to be on the horizon.

That said, there are still plenty of teams with middle-infield needs and young pitching to dangle. The Red Sox are one club that comes to mind, but each of the White Sox, Angels, Braves and Orioles could use a second baseman and/or shortstop. Most of those clubs have interesting young pitching to offer in exchange, whether the Rox prefer an immediate rotation option or someone who could join the staff in 2024, when top prospects like Zac Veen, Drew Romo and the previously mentioned Tovar have a better chance at contributing.

Rockies fans and those who’ve followed the team in recent years know that the club doesn’t exactly have a reputation for selling players at peak value (or selling at all). The Rox famously held onto both Story and Jon Gray rather than cashing them in for prospects in their walk years. Gray was lost for nothing after the team declined to make a qualifying offer. Colorado declined to trade either Daniel Bard or C.J. Cron when both were rentals at recent deadlines, instead opting to extend both players. Owner Dick Monfort is fatally optimistic about his club’s chances of winning, and while it’s admirable to continually make win-now moves in the face of long-shot (at best) odds in the division, logically there should come a point where alternate paths need to be considered.

Based on their history, the Rockies probably aren’t going to be particularly amenable to Rodgers offers. Interested teams would need to pay a steep price to pry him away, and doing so would be a bet on his underlying batted-ball profile, his defensive skills and his knack for contact to manifest in a new level of performance. There’s certainly risk, but given the dearth of middle-infield options in free agency and elsewhere on the trade market, there are few other places for teams needing middle infield help to look. The Rockies aren’t going to contend in 2023, and three years of Rodgers could bring them some direly needed young pitching. Someone should make them an offer that even a typically conservative front office/ownership group would have a hard time refusing.

Looking At The Padres’ Rotation Options

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The Padres have been quite aggressive in recent years on all fronts, from signing free agents to trading for stars and extending their own players. That has shot their budget up to record heights, with Roster Resource currently estimating their payroll at $250MM. Up until a few years ago, they had only barely nudged past the $100MM mark, jumping to $174MM in 2021 and $211MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Despite all that aggression, they’re going into the season with uncertainty in their rotation, both in the short-term and long-term. They should have a strong front three this year in Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. That leaves two question marks at the back, since Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea reached free agency and signed elsewhere. Darvish and Snell are both slated to reach free agency after this year, opening up more holes in the future. MacKenzie Gore’s inclusion in the Juan Soto trade also weakened the future outlook. So, who do they have on hand to step up and take these jobs? Let’s take a look at the candidates.

Nick Martinez

Martinez, 32, spent four seasons in Japan and parlayed that into a four-year deal with the Padres going into 2022, a deal that allowed him to opt out after each season. Last year was a mixed bag for Martinez, as he logged 106 1/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA. That’s solid production overall but it came in the form of a 4.30 ERA over 52 1/3 innings as a starter and a 2.67 mark in 54 innings as a reliever.

Martinez opted out and re-signed with the club on another deal, this time on a three-year pact. The details are unusually complex as there are plenty of incentives, as well as a dual club/player option structure. Whether he can find better results as a starter this time around remains to be seen. It’s certainly a risk for the Friars but at least it seems he comes with the floor of helping out the bullpen.

Should Martinez truly establish himself as a starter, the club will be able to keep him around. Martinez will get paid a $10MM base salary this year and the team will then have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, essentially a two-year, $32MM extension. That affords them a bit more control over his future than his previous opt-out laden deal. However, if Martinez does not have a successful campaign and they turn down that option, he will get to decide whether or not to trigger two player options valued at $8MM each, essentially a two-year, $16MM extension. That gives the Friars upside and downside potential in the pact. Those dollar figures can also reportedly change based on incentives, though the exact details aren’t known.

Seth Lugo

Lugo, 33, is a somewhat similar situation to Martinez, as he could potentially wind up in the rotation or in the bullpen. He made 23 starts in 2017-18 but only seven since, largely working as a reliever. That move was at least partially motivated by a “slight” tear that was discovered in his right ulnar collateral ligament in 2017.

Regardless, Lugo has served as an effective reliever since then, posting a 3.56 ERA over the past two years, and there’s some hope that his five-pitch mix can help him transition back into a rotation. It’s another risky move that the Padres were willing to take, giving Lugo two years and $15MM, with Lugo able to opt-out after the first. He hasn’t topped 80 innings in a season since 2018 and it’s hard to know how smooth this switch will be.

If it goes well, there won’t be any long-term upside for the club, since Lugo will make a $7.5MM salary but can opt out of the same figure for 2024. If the experiment works, he’s likely to return to free agency and find a larger guarantee. If it fails, the Padres will still be on the hook for another season.

Adrián Morejón

Morejón, 24 in February, has long been one of the most exciting pitching prospects in the league. Baseball America placed him on their top 100 list for five straight years beginning in 2017. Various injuries slowed him during his ascent to the majors and he’s yet to even pitch 70 official innings in any season of his career, majors or minors or combined.

Tommy John surgery in April of 2021 wiped out most of that season. He returned to health in 2022 but pitched in relief. The club reportedly still views him as a starter but he will likely have workload concerns this year. Between the majors and the minors last year, he logged 47 1/3 frames. He should be able to push that up now that he’s further removed from the surgery, but getting to a full starter’s workload would be a lot to ask. He has just over three years of MLB service time now, giving him the ability to provide some long-term help to the club’s rotation if he stays healthy and makes good on his prospect pedigree in 2023.

Jay Groome

Groome, 24, was a 12th overall pick of the Red Sox in 2016. He was once a highly-touted prospect but has hit various speed bumps. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 and most of his 2019, which was followed by the minors being canceled by the pandemic in 2020. He has since returned to health and posted decent results but with some of the prospect shine having worn off.

In 2022, which included a trade to the Padres in the Eric Hosmer deal, he pitched 144 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. The 3.44 ERA is nice, but his 22.8% strikeout rate is right around average and his 10.4% walk rate was on the concerning side. He’s yet to reach the majors and arguably has the greatest chance to provide future value to the club with his six seasons of control and one remaining option year.

Brent Honeywell Jr.

Honeywell, 28 in March, is also a former top prospect. A Rays draftee, he was on BA’s top 100 in five straight seasons from 2016-20. Similar to Morejón and Groome, injuries have prevented him from reaching his potential thus far. Tommy John surgery in 2018 put him on the shelf and he has dealt with various setbacks since then. He was healthy enough to toss 86 innings in 2021 between Tampa Bay and Triple-A Durham, with the club then dealing him to Oakland. However, more injury setbacks resulted in just 20 1/3 minor league innings for the A’s last year.

Honeywell seems to be healthy again at the moment, as he’s tossed 28 innings in the Dominican Winter League. His 0.96 ERA in that time seems to have been enough to impress the Padres, as they signed him to their 40-man roster last week. It would make for a terrific bounceback story if he were to finally put it all together, but it’s hard to bank on him after hardly pitching in the past five years. He still has less than a year of service time, giving the Padres plenty of upside if it all clicks, but Honeywell is also out of options and will have to produce in the big leagues right away to hang onto his roster spot.

Reiss Knehr/Pedro Avila/Ryan Weathers

These three are all on the 40-man roster and warrant a mention, though they are unlikely to be called upon except in an emergency. All three of them have gotten some big league time in recent seasons, getting fairly brief showings in swing roles. Weathers probably has the most upside of the trio since he’s just 23 whereas the others are going into their respective age-26 seasons. Weathers was considered a top 100 prospect going into 2021 but he has a 5.49 ERA in the big leagues so far and posted a 6.73 ERA in 123 Triple-A innings last year, getting bumped to the bullpen as the season wore on.

Wilmer Font

Font, 33 in May, is a real wild card. He was a journeyman in the majors for many years but went to Korea to play in the KBO in 2021. Over the last two years, he’s been pitching at an ace level for the SSG Landers. He made 25 starts in 2021 with a 3.46 ERA and then 28 starts last year with a 2.69 mark. In that latter season, he got strikeouts at a 23.3% rate, walking only 4.7% of batters faced and he got ground balls on 51.6% of balls in play.

Success overseas doesn’t always translate to success in the majors, but Font wouldn’t be the first pitcher to underwhelm in North America but then return after a breakout elsewhere, with Miles Mikolas and Merrill Kelly some of the recent examples. Font isn’t currently on the 40-man and will have to earn his way back into the mix but he will be an interesting one to watch.

Julio Teheran/Aaron Brooks

These two veterans have also been brought aboard on minor league deals. Teheran spent 2022 in Indy ball and the Mexican League, posting some decent numbers in 13 starts between various clubs. He then went to the Dominican for winter ball and has posted a 3.49 ERA through eight starts there. He had a solid run with the Braves earlier in his career but got lit up in 2020 with a 10.05 ERA and then was injured for most of 2021.

Brooks was great in the KBO in 2020 and 2021, posting a 2.79 ERA over 36 starts in that time. However, his attempted return to the majors didn’t go well. He made five relief appearances for the Cardinals with a 7.71 ERA and got outrighted to the minors. In 15 Triple-A appearances, 13 starts, his ERA was 5.56.

All told, the Padres have lots of options here but all of them have question marks. There’s a handful of faded prospects who still need to put injury concerns in the rearview mirror and another handful of veteran swingmen who still might end up better suited to the bullpen than the rotation. Musgrove-Darvish-Snell gives them a strong front three, meaning the Padres only really need a couple of these guys to step up. On the other hand, they are one injury away from someone in this group suddenly being in the #3 slot.

The Padres could always supplement their staff between now and Opening Day, but recent reporting has suggested they don’t have much more payroll space to work with. If they want to go the trade route, there are certainly options, such as the Marlins having plenty of arms available and the Brewers perhaps in a similar boat.

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