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MLBTR Originals

Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Third Basemen

By Steve Adams | October 3, 2022 at 10:55pm CDT

With the offseason drawing nearer, MLBTR will be breaking down the free-agent class on a position-by-position basis. We’ve already run through this winter’s crop of catchers, first basemen and second basemen. You can check out the full list of this offseason’s free agents here, but today we’ll take a deeper look at the options for teams in need of help at third base next.

As was the case when running through the second-base market, I’ll note that there are some star shortstops (e.g.  Xander Bogaerts) who could technically be pursued as a third base option for a team that already has an entrenched shortstop, but we’ll save that group for the shortstop preview. There’s plenty of overlap with the second base market, as many of the free-agent options this winter are utility types who can capably handle either spot.

His Own Tier

  • Nolan Arenado (32 years old next season)

Whether Arenado actually becomes a free agent is entirely up to him. He has five years and $144MM remaining on his contract but also has an opt-out clause at season’s end that would allow him to enter into the free-agent market for the first time in his career. Arenado chose not to exercise an opt-out after the 2021 season, but he’s now owed less money and is coming off perhaps the greatest season of his brilliant career. (Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote in September that Arenado was not planning to opt out, citing “friends” of Arenado, but Arenado himself has not made any declarations one way or another.)

Even if Arenado’s goal is to remain in St. Louis, there’s a good case for him to leverage that opt-out and a huge 2022 showing into an extension or larger deal with the Cards. Through 618 plate appearances, Arenado is hitting .292/.358/.533 with 30 home runs, 42 doubles, a triple and five steals (in eight tries). Arenado’s 11.5% strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career (and lowest over a full 162-game season). He’s second among all Major League third basemen in both Defensive Runs Saved (19) and Outs Above Average (14), trailing only Pittsburgh’s Ke’Bryan Hayes in both categories.

The five years and $144MM remaining on Arenado’s contract average out to $28.8MM annually — a number that, at this point, is a ways shy of where the game’s top position players are paid on an annual basis. Because next year will be his age-32 season, it’s hard to imagine him securing anything longer than a six-year deal in free agency, but as Freddie Freeman illustrated last year, it’s possible for a free agent to secure six years at that age. Arenado, of course, is coming off an even better season this year than Freeman was last winter. He’s been worth 7.2 fWAR and 7.8 rWAR — both of which are personal bests in what increasingly looks to be a Hall of Fame-caliber career.

There’s no guarantee that Arenado reaches free agency, but if he does, it’s an easy call to project a larger guarantee over five years — and perhaps over an even lengthier term than that.

A Distant Second Place

  • Brandon Drury (30)

Drury had a rough patch to begin his tenure with the Padres following a deadline swap, but he’s been swinging it just fine over the past month. Dating back to Aug. 29, Drury owns a .288/.338/.575 batting line in 80 plate appearances, and he’s logged a collective .263/.320/.497 batting line on the season. His minor league deal with the Reds was one of the best of the season by any team.

Suitors in free agency may view Drury’s 2022 campaign with some skepticism, given his disastrous 2018-20 run between the Yankees and Blue Jays (.205/.254/.346 in 582 plate appearances). However, Drury hit in a small sample with the Mets last year and has been generally productive in 2022, save for an ugly first three weeks or so in San Diego. Since Opening Day 2021, he’s at .265/.318/.494 with 32 home runs, 36 doubles and two triples in 645 plate appearances. One would think that playing a big slate of games at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park has padded his stats, but only 12 of his 28 homers came in Cincinnati.

Defensively, third base has been Drury’s most frequent position both in 2022 and, more narrowly, in his broader career. He’s been a scratch defender there, per Statcast’s Outs Above Average, and Ultimate Zone Rating generally agrees. Defensive Runs Saved (-3) has him a bit below average, and that’s generally been the case throughout his career. Still, Drury isn’t any kind of glaring liability at the hot corner, and he has 1436 MLB innings at second base, 965 between the outfield corners and  361 at first base. At the very least, he looks like a super-utility player, but Drury has hit enough to be considered a potential starter at second or third, as well.

Utility Players

  • Aledmys Diaz (32)

Diaz has played at least 45 innings at five different positions this season: all four infield spots and left field. He was primarily a shortstop early in his career and still has more total innings there than at any position. He never graded well there, and as he enters his mid-30s, he’ll be viewed as more of a utility player. Diaz’s .248/.294/.415 line in 2022 is a bit down from the .259/.318/.433 slash he’s posted over four total seasons with the ’Stros. He’s a right-handed bat who’s shown a pretty noticeable platoon split over the past couple seasons, though early in his career he hit fellow righties better than lefties. Third base isn’t Diaz’s primary position, but he’s still tallied 758 innings there in his career.

  • Jace Peterson (33)

Primarily a second baseman until the current campaign, Peterson has played mostly third base in Milwaukee this season and posted sensational defensive marks there, including 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 6 Outs Above Average in just 605 innings. The lefty-swinging Peterson has revived his career with a solid three-year run in Milwaukee, hitting .241/.339/.377 (100 wRC+) with a hefty 12.4% walk rate, 16 homers and 23 steals in 684 plate appearances. He’s even handled lefties well in a small sample over the past two seasons, although a career .217/.289/.282 output against them still suggests he’s best deployed against righties only.

  • Donovan Solano (35)

A hamstring strain cost Solano more than two months, but since being activated, he’s batted .284/.338/.384 with four homers and 15 doubles in 293 trips to the plate. Solano has been quite good at home, in Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, and below-average on the road, but this is the fourth consecutive season he’s headed for at least league-average offense overall. Dating back to his 2019 resurgence with the Giants, “Donnie Barrels” is hitting .301/.350/421 in 1068 plate appearances. He’ll turn 35 in December, though, and his defensive grades at second, third and shortstop in recent years are all lacking. He’s posted excellent numbers in 190 innings as a first baseman this year, however (5 DRS, 3 OAA).

Depth Options and Rebound Hopefuls

  • Ehire Adrianza (33): A switch-hitter with considerable experience all over the infield and in both outfield corners, Adrianza doesn’t hit particularly well from either side of the dish and doesn’t have great defensive marks anywhere. He’s batted .215/.302/.320 in 415 plate appearances since Opening Day 2020.
  • Charlie Culberson (34): Culberson torments lefties, is generally regarded as a strong clubhouse presence and has played every big league position except center field and catcher. Since a career-high 12 homers in 2018, however, he’s slashed just .248/.291/.384 in 542 plate appearances.
  • Matt Duffy (32): A regular at third base with the Giants and Rays earlier in his career, Duffy has long been touted as a strong defensive player. Injuries have hampered him extensively in recent years, limiting him to 730 plate appearances over the past four seasons. He’s hit reasonably well in that time: .267/.338/.346.
  • Maikel Franco (30): Once one of the game’s top prospects, Franco never developed into the slugger the Phillies hoped. With just a .233/.278/.384 slash since 2019 (including .229/.255/.342 with the Nats this year) and woeful defensive grades, the 30-year-old Franco is likely looking at another minor league deal this winter.
  • Marwin Gonzalez (34): The veteran switch-hitter has survived on the Yankees’ roster all season despite hitting just .180/.255/.308 in 195 plate appearances. Gonzalez’s career year in 2017 helped him land a two-year deal with the Minnesota, and since the second season of that contract he’s since cratered with a .197/.273/.310 slash across 701 plate appearances.
  • Phil Gosselin (34): The journeyman utility player has experience at every infield spot and in the outfield corners. He hit .149/.182/.176 in 77 plate appearances this year but did record a respectable .259/.316/.371 slash in 475 plate appearances from 2020-21.
  • Jonathan Villar (32): Villar hit 24 homers and swiped 40 bags with the O’s in 2019, struggled through a dismal showing between Miami and Toronto in 2020, and rebounded nicely with the 2021 Mets. The pendulum swung back in the other direction this year, as he’s been released by both the Cubs and Angels while hitting a combined .208/.260/.302. At his best, Villar is a switch-hitter with some power and difference-making speed, but he’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his career.

Veterans with Club Options

  • Hanser Alberto (30): Alberto’s one-year deal with the Dodgers contained a $2MM club option and a $250K buyout. Los Angeles will all likely opt for the buyout after Alberto has batted .234/.248/.357 in 157 trips to the plate. Alberto has solid defensive ratings around the infield and hits lefties well — career .322/.340/.448 hitter in 581 plate appearances — giving him some bench appeal. His recent poor showings will be hard to overlook, though.
  • Josh Harrison (35): Pretty much everything I wrote about Harrison last week in the second base preview still holds up. He’s had a tough week at the plate, so his offense has now fallen to slightly below average, by measure of wRC+ (96). Still, a .256/.317/.361 output with six homers, 18 doubles and a pair of triples is decent production for an affordable veteran who’s turned in plus defensive marks at both second base and third base this season. Harrison is also plenty experienced in the outfield corners, and after a rough showing in 2018-19 has been a slightly above-average hitter over the life of three seasons. He has a $5.625MM option with a $1.5MM buyout, and a net $4.125MM price seems plenty reasonable. The White Sox, though, are already facing a potential record payroll next year and might want more offense than Harrison can provide, even though his overall price tag is eminently reasonable.
  • Evan Longoria (37): Given the Giants’ overall results this year and the amount of time Longoria has spent on the injured list, it feels safe to say he’s likely having a better season than many realize. He’s not the Longo of old, but even at age 36, he’s turned in a .244/.315/.451 batting line with 14 homers and 13 doubles in just 298 plate appearances. Longoria is striking out more than ever (27.9%) and is no longer the elite defender he was in his 20s. He’s still making tons of hard contact and hitting for power, though. The Giants hold a $13MM option with a $5MM buyout, and the Giants may prefer that buyout as they look to get younger. Longoria discussed the possibility of retirement in an interview with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle earlier this summer. It’ll be a family decision on whether he’ll continue playing at age 37, but given his huge output against lefties and his overall batted-ball profile, there ought to be interest in the veteran slugger even if it’s in a more reduced role.
  • Justin Turner (38): A Dodgers fixture who hasn’t stopped hitting even as his 38th birthday approaches (November), Turner has a $16MM club option with a $2MM buyout. That could’ve vested automatically based on MVP voting, but that’s not going to happen — solid as Turner’s season has been. In 525 trips to the plate, he’s hit .280/.352/.443 with 13 long balls — good for a 125 wRC+. The Dodgers have recently picked up the options of a few players and tacked on a new club option for 2024, and given Turner’s consistency perhaps they’ll look at doing the same here. Turner is still a very good hitter, but his defensive ratings at third base have dipped and he’s spent nearly half his time at designated hitter in 2022.
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2022-23 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

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Big Hype Prospects: Rojas, McLain, Davis, Davis, Priester

By Brad Johnson | September 30, 2022 at 3:39pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, we pretend the offseason isn’t looming over us whilst we ponder prospects on the way to the Arizona Fall League. The AFL kicks off on October 3. We’ll aim to focus on players who weren’t thoroughly covered in previous episodes of BHP, i.e. Cardinals third baseman Jordan Walker. He happens to be the top-rated prospect tabbed to play in Arizona this fall.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Johan Rojas, 21, OF, PHI (AA)
264 PA, 4 HR, 29 SB, .260/.333/.387

After an icy start to the season in High-A where he hit a meager .230/.287/.325 in 292 plate appearances (3 HR, 33 SB), Rojas got his act in gear and earned a promotion to Double-A where he produced an exactly league-average batting line. A source theorized he was striving to produce home-run power, and it backfired. Prior to the season, Rojas cited Ronald Acuna Jr. as his aspirational goal. One could see how such a lofty target might lead a prospect to struggle.

Rojas is best known for his elite defense and speed. This season, he swiped a total of 62 bases in 67 attempts and only 556 plate appearances. With new baserunning rules coming into effect, Rojas profiles to be among the league leaders in stolen bases over the next half-decade. Although he’s not as strikeout prone as Adalberto Mondesi, he might prove frustratingly similar. He can deliver surprisingly potent exit velocities, but he mostly makes modest contact due to poor discipline and off-balance swings. Without a breakthrough, he profiles as an above-average centerfielder who hits something like .240/.290/.350 and makes up for it on defense and the basepaths.

Rojas is Rule 5 eligible this winter and will certainly be added to the roster.

Matt McLain, 22, SS, CIN (AA)
452 PA, 17 HR, 27 SB, .232/.363/.453

McLain is a well-regarded prospect in scouting circles, but he can get a bit lost in a system that also boasts the inimitable Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte up the middle. Entering the season, he was regarded as a bat-first future second baseman whose lack of power could lead to a utility role. It appears he attempted to sell out for power this season with modest effect. He hit 17 home runs and more flies than grounders – a good foundation for a player who will call Great American Smallpark his home venue. Unfortunately, he also posted a 28.1 percent strikeout rate – unsightly for a player whom scouts believe has a 60-grade hit tool. Discipline could play a role here as well. He walked in 15.5 percent of plate appearances, a sign of borderline passivity.

Optimists might note that Gunnar Henderson had similar characteristics last season. He made better swing decisions in 2022 en route to number one prospect status. McLain doesn’t have the same raw tools as Henderson, but he could seek to follow the same roadmap from Double-A to the Majors.

Henry Davis, 22, C, PIT (AAA)
(AA) 136 PA, 4 HR, 3 SB, .207/.324/.379

Davis only managed 255 plate appearances across four levels due to a left wrist fracture. That’s not an auspicious form of injury for a player whose defensive prowess is actively questioned. All aspects of his defensive profile need improvement. The profile has a vaguely Gary Sanchez-like feel – both for defensive reasons and because light-tower power is his carrying trait. Unlike Sanchez, Davis has plenty of feel for contact and could probably comfortably profile as a first baseman. The Fall League will give him an opportunity to catch up on lost reps.

The Pirates have interesting questions to answer in the next two seasons. Both Davis and Endy Rodriguez (featured last week) profile as offensive catchers who might fit better at another position. Rodriguez appears to be the better defensive catcher and is slightly ahead developmentally so Davis might find himself used more like Daulton Varsho – a guy who can catch in a pinch but typically fields another position.

Brennen Davis, 22, OF, CHC (AAA)
174 PA, 4 HR, .191/.322/.319

Davis suffered a lost season of sorts, making only 204 plate appearances across three levels. On the whole, he struggled mightily. He missed three months with an unusual back injury – a blood vessel deformity that led to debilitating pain. The issue was corrected surgically. Davis will seek to recover his 2021 form which included excellent production in High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. Given the nature of his injury, it’s premature to adjust his status as a prospect until we can learn more about his recovery. He has swing-and-miss issues which could limit his production – especially if the injury has sapped his athleticism. Scouting reports tend to focus on the many adjustments he has ahead of him while noting his previous success with making similar adjustments.

Quinn Priester, 21, SP, PIT (AAA)
AA: 75.1 IP, 8.96 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 2.87 ERA

Although he finished the year in Triple-A, Priester spent the bulk of his campaign at Double-A where he performed well. An oblique injury limited him to only 90.1 innings on the season. For that reason, he’ll attend the AFL. Typically, top pitching prospects only join an Arizona roster if they need to make up for lost innings.

Priester is trending towards a 2023 debut. He’s credited with an impressive curveball and three useful variants of fastball. The repertoire as a whole doesn’t tunnel well which is likely to hold him back from future acedom. However, his ability to miss bats and induce weakly hit ground-ball contact could make up for his shortcomings. Only recently have developmental processes put so much emphasis on pitch tunneling. Plenty of pitchers succeeded in the past (and today) despite a relative lack of tunneling. That said, there’s anecdotal evidence that pitchers without tunneled repertoires take longer to adjust to the Majors.

Five More

Andy Pages, LAD (21): The Dodgers are adept at putting their prospects in positions to succeed, so I often find myself skeptical of their top-rated players. Pages has posted remarkable power output throughout his rise through the minors, but his extreme pulled, fly ball approach could render him a one-dimensional threat. He was a roughly league-average hitter as a 21-year-old at Double-A.

Nick Gonzales (24): Gonzales remains a bit of an enigma. He passes all the eye tests, but his statistical performances leave much to be desired. As a 23-year-old at Double-A, he hit .263/.383/.429 with only seven home runs and five steals in 316 plate appearances. He struggled to make contact with a 16.0 percent swinging strike rate and 28.5 percent strikeout rate. Minor adjustments could unlock major results.

Jackson Merrill, SDP (19): A 2021 first-rounder, Merrill will be one of the youngest players in the AFL. The 19-year-old had an encouraging debut in Low-A, batting .325/.387/.482 in 219 plate appearances. There are questions about his ability to handle high heat or ever generate much power – both of which are probably premature for a player this young.

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): Another 2022 draftee, Gelof got a brief taste of Triple-A last season then spent most of this season in Double-A where he posted an ordinary .271/.356/.438 triple-slash (105 wRC+). Gelof looks the part of a future big league, possibly a second-division starter.

Warming Bernabel, COL (20): Bernabel earned a promotion to High-A late in the season and saw his plate discipline erode (1.8 percent walk rate). Otherwise, he performed ably with a .305/.315/.486 triple-slash in 109 plate appearances. He had more well-rounded success in Low-A where he hit .317/.390/.504 with 10 home runs and 21 triples in 300 plate appearances. At this stage of his career, Bernabel is considered too aggressive to thrive in the Majors, though he does seem to have a knack for squaring up the baseball – even outside of the strike zone.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Brennen Davis Henry Davis Johan Rojas Matt McLain Quinn Priester

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Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

By Steve Adams | September 30, 2022 at 9:47am CDT

The 2022 A’s were as bad as expected after trading away Matt Olson, Chris Bassitt, Matt Chapman and Sean Manaea last offseason and declining to add any real upgrades in the free-agent market. The fire sale continued into the summer, as Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino were traded, while Elvis Andrus and Stephen Piscotty were simply released. Expect more turnover this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players

  • Tony Kemp
  • Deolis Guerra
  • Ramon Laureano
  • Sean Murphy
  • Paul Blackburn
  • Possible Super Two players: A.J. Puk, Cole Irvin
  • Non-tender candidates: Kemp, Guerra

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

  • Stephen Vogt (has announced will retire after the season), Chad Pinder

The A’s head into the offseason without a single dollar committed to the 2023 payroll. Their fire sale, which dates back to last winter, has stripped the payroll down to the bare minimum. They’ll have five arbitration-eligible players (plus another pair of potential Super Two players) on whom they need to decide, but it’s a pretty straightforward bunch. Deolis Guerra missed the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery and figures to be non-tendered. Tony Kemp is hitting .233/.307/.333 as of this writing and only has one year of club control left. They could tender him simply to have some semblance of roster continuity and give the fans at least one more name they can recognize, but he’s due a raise on this season’s $2.25MM salary and the A’s might want to give those at-bats to younger players.

Each of Ramon Laureano, Sean Murphy and Paul Blackburn will be tendered contracts, though that doesn’t necessarily guarantee a return to the roster next season. In the case of Laureano and Blackburn, it at least appears likely they’ll be back. Laureano was an in-demand trade chip last offseason and drew interest this summer, too, but he’s controllable for another three seasons and the A’s probably feel they’d be selling low if they moved him on the heels of a .211/.287/.376 batting line.

Laureano missed the first month of the season serving out the final portion of an 80-game PED suspension and looks like he’ll end the year on the injured list owing to a hamstring strain. His stock is probably as low as it’s been since the A’s acquired him in what looked like a forgettable, minor trade with the division-rival Astros. But, from 2018-21, Laureano batted .263/.335/.485 with 49 homers, 34 steals, plus baserunning value and strong glovework (plus a penchant for highlight-reel grabs).

A good first half in 2023 might be all it takes to boost Laureano from a buy-low candidate to a premium outfielder with (as of next summer) two-plus seasons of club control remaining. Unless a team is willing to pay for the 2018-21 version of him right now, it’s most sensible to just hold.

It’s a relatively similar tale with Blackburn, who ascended from DFA fodder that went unclaimed on waivers early in the 2021 season to a 2022 All-Star. It’s fair to be cynical and point out that, yes, someone from the Athletics needed to be named to the team, but Blackburn was far more than a token All-Star. His end-of-season numbers don’t reflect that, though that’s due to an injury.

Through his first 16 starts of the season, Blackburn was outstanding. He pitched to a 2.90 ERA in that time, offsetting a pedestrian 17.7% strikeout rate with an excellent 5.9% walk rate and a hearty 50.5% grounder rate. Blackburn’s 87.2 mph average exit velocity in that time was strong, and he allowed all of seven “barreled” balls through those first 16 starts (3.2%). Virtually no one was squaring the ball up against him, he wasn’t walking many hitters, and he was erasing plenty of traffic on the bases with timely double-play grounders.

Things went awry for Blackburn beginning in mid-July, when he began experiencing discomfort in his pitching hand. He tried to pitch through pain for the next month, serving up 25 runs in 24 1/3 innings before eventually succumbing to the injured list. He was diagnosed with a torn tendon sheath in his right middle finger and placed in a splint for up to eight weeks. Suffice it to say, to trade Blackburn right now would be selling low. Like Laureano, he’s controlled another three seasons, so if he starts strong in 2023 he could quickly build up trade value.

If there’s one glaring trade candidate on the Oakland roster right now, it’s Murphy, who’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and should see his salary jump from $725K to more than $3MM. Obviously that’s not a large sum, but the A’s, even more so than usual over the past year, have endeavored to tear the payroll down to its lowest possible levels.

Beyond the salary ramifications, Murphy’s value is arguably at its apex — and the A’s have an in-house option whom they hope can emerge as a similarly productive backstop: top prospect Shea Langeliers, acquired from the Braves as one of the centerpieces to March’s Olson trade. The presence of Langeliers alone certainly doesn’t push Murphy out the door — Langeliers has batted just .220/.242/.398 in his first 124 MLB plate appearances, after all — but Murphy will draw widespread interest on the heels of a breakout season.

Because of his elite defensive skills and above-average power, the 27-year-old Murphy was already viewed as a quality player even after turning in a tepid .216/.306/.405 slash in 2021. This year, he’s boosted that stat line to a much more palatable .249/.331/.430, and even that slash undersells just how strong of a finish he’s putting together. Dating back to early June, Murphy has mashed at a .278/.362/.465 clip with 13 homers, 23 doubles, a triple, a 9.4% walk rate and just a 16.3% strikeout rate in 385 plate appearances. That’s standout production from any hitter but especially from a catcher with above-average framing marks, a strong 31% caught-stealing rate and perennially positive marks in Defensive Runs Saved.

The Rays, Guardians, Cubs, Marlins, Tigers, Red Sox, Twins and several others teams could plausibly look into Murphy this winter. There are only seven teams that saw their catchers combine for offensive production that was better than that of a league-average hitter in 2022, and one of them was the A’s, so there’ll be no shortage of potential trade partners. As things stand, Murphy looks like the primary offseason trade chip who could be sold at peak value. Teams are sometimes reluctant to trade for a new starting catcher midseason and have him learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly — hence, to an extent, Willson Contreras staying put this year — so trading Murphy over the next six months could be easier than marketing him next summer.

Beyond that group, the Oakland roadmap is more or less wide open. It’s not necessarily an enviable spot, but aside from Murphy at catcher and Laureano in one of the three outfield spots, the A’s are lacking in established, everyday players. Slugger Seth Brown figures to be a regular, but he’s capable of playing first base, corner outfield or slotting in at designated hitter, giving the front office some flexibility. Cristian Pache, acquired alongside Langeliers in the Olson trade with Atlanta, will be out of minor league options in 2023, so he’ll likely be penciled into center field despite hitting just .248/.298/.349 in Triple-A and .160/.211/.225 in the Majors. Otherwise, there are seemingly no guarantees of playing time.

Nick Allen has played excellent defense at shortstop but hasn’t hit enough to firmly seize the spot.  Kevin Smith, acquired for Chapman, hasn’t hit much in the Majors or in Triple-A and will likely get another look at third base or second base next year — but he has options remaining and could begin the year in Triple-A. Dermis Garcia has shown some pop at first base but has also fanned 46 times in 108 plate appearances. I already touched on Langeliers’ status. There’s just very little certainty throughout the roster.

As such, even though they’re not likely to attract (or to be willing to spend on) marquee free agents, the A’s can offer something many contending clubs cannot: opportunity. Hitters searching for a rebound might not relish playing half their games in the cavernous Coliseum the same way a pitcher might, but the promise of an earnest shot at 500-600 plate appearances isn’t something every team can offer to players coming off down years.

The A’s can absolutely do that, and with basically nothing committed to next year’s payroll, there’s every reason to do so. Former stars and top prospects who’ve seen their stock drop could see some appeal in the playing time available in Oakland, whether that’s Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo, Didi Gregorius or Wil Myers. Oakland is going to need someone to fill out the lineup, and they’re not going to be the top choice for in-demand free agents coming off strong seasons.

The A’s would also make a nice soft landing spot for any notable names who are non-tendered; paying up for a year of someone like Cody Bellinger, if he’s cut loose by the Dodgers, brings a recognizable name and some major upside come deadline season. Only time will tell whether the A’s spend on a few larger names or spread out any available resources among a larger number of low-cost options. Either route is plausible, but since they can’t expect to contend next season anyhow, the focus ought to be on acquiring short-term players who have the chance to net the most trade deadline value (or perhaps non-tendered players with multiple years of club control remaining).

One target that seems like a given, however, is a veteran catcher. If the A’s trade Murphy, they’ll want someone with some experience to work alongside Langeliers. If Murphy stays put, the best thing for Langeliers will be to play everyday in Triple-A, necessitating some type of backup addition. Austin Hedges, Omar Narvaez, Roberto Perez, Kevin Plawecki and Tucker Barnhart are among the available names.

Over on the pitching staff, things are a bit more solid — but not by much. Cole Irvin could reach arbitration as a Super Two player, but even then he’d have another four years of team control remaining. Clubs may still come calling, and the A’s might even find an offer to their liking, but it’s rare to see players with this much team control remaining actually change hands. Besides, Irvin is limping to the finish line (6.97 ERA over his past nine starts) and, with a 4.11 ERA in 175 innings overall, looks more like an innings-eating fourth starter than anything else. Some teams will need that, but the free-agent market offers comparable arms who won’t cost minor league talent. A deal could be hard to piece together here, particularly since the A’s also badly need stable innings of this nature.

Irvin and Blackburn, then, should take two rotation spots. The A’s can offer a guaranteed rotation spot and a spacious home park to any number of rebound hopefuls in free agency — Matthew Boyd, Dallas Keuchel, Chad Kuhl, Michael Pineda, Joe Ross, Vince Velasquez among them — and there are plenty of in-house options for the final spots. Adrian Martinez, James Kaprielian, Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, Zach Logue, Adam Oller and Daulton Jefferies will be in the rotation mix next spring. Kaprielian is out of minor league options and has pitched well of late (3.43 ERA since July 1), so he’s a favorite for a role either in the rotation or bullpen next year.

Speaking of the ’pen, the Athletics should have innings — and perhaps even saves — to offer free agents in that regard as well. A.J. Puk, Domingo Acevedo, Zach Jackson, Dany Jimenez and Sam Moll have all had nice years (albeit some of them with troubling command issues), but there’s no set closer in Mark Kotsay’s group. Dangling that role to lure a high-profile name like Ken Giles, Tommy Kahnle, Corey Knebel or even Craig Kimbrel could make for a compelling selling point.

It’s not yet clear just how high the A’s will be willing to take their payroll. They opened the 2022 season with a paltry $48MM in commitments and would need to do a fair bit of work just to get back to that point. Given the huge gap between their projected commitments and even 2022’s stripped-down Opening Day payroll total, they should have plenty of room to get creative; the oft-proposed but seldom-implemented strategy of acquiring prospects by absorbing a bad contract does make some sense for Oakland, even if we’re not accustomed to the idea of them providing salary relief to another team.

We’ve seen the Red Sox (acquiring Jackie Bradley Jr. and Adam Ottavino over the past two offseasons) and the Giants back in 2018 (Zack Cozart) take on underwater contracts in trades that saw the Brewers, Yankees and Angels all surrender mid-range prospects to shed those commitments. With few established big league talents left to sell for prospects at this point and a completely blank payroll slate, the A’s could consider that tactic.

Obviously, Oakland isn’t going to absorb the $59MM still remaining on Patrick Corbin’s deal with the Nats. The A’s are probably in no hurry to eat the remaining $30.5MM the Yankees owe to Aaron Hicks, either. Smaller-scale commitments to (relatively) young players, however, could make some sense. Scott Kingery, for instance, is clearly no longer in the Phillies’ plans and has just a year $9MM to go on his contract. The Phillies, a luxury-tax payor, might have extra incentive to shed even his contract’s $4MM AAV from the books as they plan for the 2023 campaign.

That’s just one speculative example, to be clear, and there’s no indication yet that Oakland’s ever-frugal ownership group would green-light the addition of player salary to bolster the middle tiers of the farm system. Still, it’d be a sensible approach given the current payroll and state of the rebuild.

I’ve written a lot of these offseason outlooks at MLBTR over the years, but it’s hard to recall a parallel with the current state of the A’s: a team with no guaranteed money on the following year’s books, a tiny arbitration class (that could be further depleted by trades/non-tenders), a farm system that still ranks in the bottom half to bottom third of the league, and almost nothing on the roster in terms of established, cost-controlled players. The A’s could go in countless directions this winter as they look to fill this blank canvas, but two things seem clear: they probably won’t spend much money along the way, and this rebuild is going to take some time.

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2022-23 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Oakland Athletics

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Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

By Anthony Franco | September 29, 2022 at 7:55pm CDT

The Rockies perpetual effort at contention came up short this year. Colorado will finish below .500 for a fourth consecutive season, and they’re likely headed for a last place finish in the NL West. With no appetite for a rebuild, they’ll make another run at competing this offseason. There are a lot of holes to fill and a sizable number of financial commitments on the books. General manager Bill Schmidt and his staff will have their work cut out for them yet again.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Kris Bryant, LF: $164MM through 2028
  • Ryan McMahon, 3B: $65MM through 2027
  • Kyle Freeland, LHP: $57.5MM through 2026 (deal includes 2027 vesting option)
  • Antonio Senzatela, RHP: $43.25MM through 2026 (deal includes 2027 club option)
  • Daniel Bard, RHP: $19MM through 2024
  • Germán Márquez, RHP: $17.5MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Elias Díaz, C: $11.5MM through 2024
  • C.J. Cron, 1B: $7.5MM through 2023
  • Randal Grichuk, RF: $5MM through 2023 (not including $4.33MM of salary to be paid by Blue Jays)

Option Decisions

  • Charlie Blackmon, DH: $15MM player option, no buyout
  • Scott Oberg, RHP: $8MM club option, no buyout

Additional Financial Commitments

Would owe Cardinals $5MM as part of the Nolan Arenado trade if he foregoes opt-out opportunity

Total 2023 commitments (if Blackmon exercises option and Arenado doesn’t opt out): $117.25MM
Total future commitments (if Arenado doesn’t opt out): $389.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

  • Dinelson Lamet
  • Garrett Hampson
  • Brendan Rodgers
  • Austin Gomber
  • Ty Blach
  • Tyler Kinley
  • Peter Lambert
  • Non-tender candidates: Lamet, Hampson, Blach, Lambert

Free Agents

  • Chad Kuhl, José Iglesias, José Ureña, Carlos Estévez, Alex Colomé

Few organizations value continuity as much as the Rockies. Even as they’re headed for a fourth straight subpar season, they’ve worked to keep the core of their roster intact. Last offseason saw a spate of extensions, with Elias Díaz, Ryan McMahon, Antonio Senzatela, C.J. Cron and, shortly after Opening Day, Kyle Freeland inked to multi-year deals. The Rox continued the pattern at the trade deadline even as it had become clear they weren’t postseason bound. Closer Daniel Bard would’ve been a slam-dunk trade candidate on most teams as he was headed towards free agency, but Colorado tacked on two years and $19MM to keep him in Denver through 2024.

The Rockies didn’t trade away anyone this summer, reinforcing their longstanding resistance to a major overhaul. It came as little surprise when general manager Bill Schmidt announced over the weekend the club had no plans to make a change atop the dugout, either. Manager Bud Black will return for a seventh season at the helm, and he’ll likely be tasked with getting better results from a roster than looks a lot like the 2022 iteration.

Colorado isn’t facing many noteworthy free agent departures. Fifth starter Chad Kuhl signed a $3MM deal last offseason after spending his career with the Pirates. That looked like a bargain after a strong first half, but he’s been crushed to the tune of an 8.42 ERA while allowing opponents to hit .318/.392/.636 since the All-Star Break. Kuhl didn’t lose any velocity, but his sinker has been hit hard in recent months. His season line is up to a career-worst 5.45 ERA with a below-average 18.1% strikeout rate over 26 starts.

The Rockies didn’t trade Kuhl this summer, ostensibly because there was mutual interest in a contract extension. Whether the team is still anxious to keep him around after his second-half performance is unclear, but they should be able to do so rather affordably if they’d like. Even if they bring Kuhl back, then adding at least another lower-cost starter in the Zach Davies mold feels like a must. Midseason signee José Ureña hasn’t pitched well and is headed back to free agency. Depth starter Ryan Feltner has an ERA pushing 6.00, while former second-round pick Peter Lambert has spent most of the season on the minor league injured list and looks like a non-tender candidate.

One can argue for the Rockies to pursue a more impactful rotation pickup than either of Kuhl or Davies. Colorado’s rotation ranks 29th in the majors in both ERA (5.29) and strikeout rate (17.1%) with a week remaining in the season. Spending half their games at Coors Field doesn’t do the Rockies’ staff any favors, but even park-adjusted metrics like ERA-minus and SIERA have been underwhelmed by the results. Six of Colorado’s seven starters have an ERA north of 5.00, while Freeland leads the club with a 4.63 mark.

In believing themselves to be contenders, the Rockies envisioned the rotation as the lifeblood of the club. They had seen varying levels of success from Germán Márquez, Freeland and Senzatela in prior seasons, and they’ve signed all three to long-term extensions. Márquez, in particular, looked like a high-quality hurler between 2018-21, but he’s had a nightmare 2022 season. Over 30 starts, he has a 5.12 ERA and has seen his strikeout (18.8%) and swinging strike (10.1%) rates fall precipitously from their above-average levels of seasons past. Márquez still throws hard and has an excellent curveball, but his slider has lost a bit of effectiveness while both his four-seam and sinking fastballs have been hit hard.

Getting Márquez back on track this offseason will be a top priority for Black and pitching coach Darryl Scott. He’s certain to get another crack in the rotation alongside Freeland. Senzatela will probably be back in the mix at some point, but he’s unlikely to be ready for Opening Day after tearing the ACL in his left knee last month. That leaves as many as three rotation spots up for grabs, at least to start the year.

The club had hoped Austin Gomber could plug one of those holes, but the key piece of the Nolan Arenado trade struggled to a 5.85 ERA through 16 starts before being moved to the bullpen in July. He’s pitched a little better as a long reliever but not dramatically so. Gomber may get another chance to compete for a rotation spot come Spring Training, but it’s hard to bank on him. Former first-rounder Ryan Rolison could get an opportunity as well, but he’s yet to make his major league debut and missed most of this season after undergoing shoulder surgery in early June.

It’s one of the thinner rotation outlooks in the majors, but the Rockies may not have a ton of room to add notable upgrades from the outside. Colorado will have roughly $112MM in player payroll committed to their 2023 roster once Charlie Blackmon exercises his $15MM player option (which is an inevitability). That’s before accounting for potential additional future payments to the Cardinals as part of the Arenado swap. As the Associated Press reported in April 2021, the Rox will owe St. Louis an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if Arenado declines to opt out of his contract at the end of the season. There’s a chance the Rockies are on the hook for around $117MM before getting to their arbitration class or considering any outside additions.

The franchise-record payroll is a hair north of $145MM, which they reached back in 2019, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. It seems likely they’ll set a new franchise mark next season. That’s particularly true if they tender an arbitration contract to Dinelson Lamet, whom they claimed off waivers from the Brewers in early August. Lamet had struggled with injuries and underperformance his past couple seasons as a Padre, but he’s pitched to a 3.00 ERA with a hefty 32.5% strikeout rate in 18 innings of relief for Colorado. The right-hander is making $4.775MM this season and would be due a salary north of $5MM in 2023 if tendered a contract.

Those payroll limitations could lead Colorado to look towards the trade market in search of more affordable starting pitching. The Rockies farm system isn’t especially robust, particularly on the pitching side, but Colorado has seen the emergence of a few lower-level position players. Colorado has four of the top 53 prospects on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 update. Their top prospect, shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, likely isn’t going anywhere now that he’s in the majors. Corner outfielder Zac Veen, catcher Drew Romo and shortstop Adael Amador are among the better minor league talents in the sport, though, and lower level hitters like Warming Bernabel, Yanquiel Fernandez and recent first-rounder Benny Montgomery have all had solid seasons. Dealing from that group to add an arbitration-eligible or pre-arb starter to the mix isn’t out of the question.

Aside from any external pickups, Lamet could be an option to battle Rolison, Gomber and Feltner for jobs in the rotation. It may be tempting to keep Lamet in the bullpen, where he’s been successful of late. Colorado will need a few quality arms to bridge the gap to Bard in the ninth inning. Among Rockies relievers with 15+ innings, the only four with a sub-4.00 ERA this season are Bard, Lamet, Carlos Estévez and Tyler Kinley. Estévez is set to hit free agency, while Kinley underwent elbow surgery this summer and might not return before the All-Star Break.

Left-hander Lucas Gilbreath has shown an intriguing enough combination of strikeouts and grounders to warrant a spot in next year’s bullpen, but there’s opportunity here as well. Estévez’s intriguing power arsenal makes him a candidate for a multi-year deal that might price out of Colorado’s range, given the various other holes on the roster. The Rox will probably bring in a veteran middle reliever or two, likely a lower-cost type like their $4.1MM flier on Alex Colomé last winter. Colomé himself will be a free agent and seems unlikely to return after a tough year.

Just as the Rockies are committed to bounceback years from a good chunk of their starting rotation, they’ll have to hope for better from many on the position player side. No player is more integral to the lineup than Kris Bryant, of course. Signed to a seven-year, $182MM free-agent deal last offseason, Bryant only appeared in 42 games because of a host of injuries. None was more impactful than the plantar fasciitis in his right foot that ended his season. The former MVP did hit well when healthy enough to take the field (.306/.376/.475). A full season from Bryant is critical if the Rox are to have any chance of competing, as he was brought in to serve as the lineup anchor the club lost when Arenado and Trevor Story departed.

Bryant will be back in left field, where he was supposed to see the bulk of playing time this year. Right field, Blackmon’s primary home for the past few seasons, is more of a question mark. Blackmon will be back for another year on the player option, but he’s seen more action at designated hitter than in the outfield in his age-35 campaign and will undergo knee surgery next week to repair a torn meniscus. He’ll presumably continue to see a bit of right field work, but the Rockies could also look outside the organization for help.

Randal Grichuk, acquired from the Blue Jays for Raimel Tapia just before Opening Day, is under contract for one more year but didn’t play particularly well during his debut campaign with the team. He’s in the center field mix but could also play right field regularly if the Rockies wanted to give the speedy Yonathan Daza a chance in center. Daza makes a ton of contact and hits for high batting averages, but his power impact is limited enough he’s better suited for fourth outfield work. Younger players like Elehuris Montero, Michael Toglia and Sean Bouchard could play their way into DH reps if the Rockies eschew an outfield addition and are comfortable plugging Blackmon back in right field regularly. Bouchard had the least prospect hype of that trio coming through the minors, but he’s the only one who has impressed in his limited big league work this year.

If Colorado were to look to free agency, there are a few mid-tier corner outfielders from which to choose. Adam Duvall and Joey Gallo are buy-low types whose huge power would make them interesting fits in Coors Field. Tyler Naquin has hit at a slightly above-average level for the second straight season. The Padres are sure to buy out Wil Myers, who wouldn’t be especially expensive.

The infield mix looks to be the most straightforward area of the roster. Cron has tailed off in the second half after an excellent start to the year, but he’s under contract for another season and should return as the primary first baseman. Former top prospect Brendan Rodgers has been up-and-down offensively as a major leaguer, but he’ll probably get another opportunity at second base. McMahon is the best player on the infield and will be back at the hot corner, while Tovar should be ready to step in at shortstop.

Colorado signed José Iglesias as a stopgap shortstop for the 2022 season. Iglesias had a fine year but will hit free agency this winter, and Colorado figures to move on and turn things over to the 21-year-old Tovar before long. Regarded by scouts as a plus defender, Tovar skyrocketed up prospect rankings after hitting .318/.386/.545 with 13 home runs and 17 stolen bases through 295 plate appearances at Double-A Hartford. He has almost no Triple-A experience, but Colorado brought him up for his MLB debut last week.

Carrying Tovar on next season’s Opening Day roster could have the added bonus of gaining the Rockies some extra draft capital down the line if he hits the ground running. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, players with less than 60 days of service who appear among two preseason Top 100 lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline can net their team a bonus amateur draft choice based on their early-career finishes in awards voting, so long as their club carries them on the MLB roster for a full service year. Tovar seems certain to qualify as a top prospect this winter, so there’s a bit of additional incentive to have him play regularly from the outset.

If the Rockies did want Tovar to get some run in Triple-A, they could sign someone like Elvis Andrus as a temporary shortstop option. When Tovar is ready for everyday reps, that player could kick to the bench and upgrade the infield depth over Garrett Hampson, who might be non-tendered this winter.

Behind the plate, the Rockies have relied upon a combination of Díaz and Brian Serven. Neither has played well enough the team should be satisfied running it back with that duo, but the Rox’s surprising decision to sign Díaz to a three-year extension last fall means he’s still due $11.5MM through 2024. Much of this winter’s free agent catching class is coming off down years, with Willson Contreras handily topping the market. It’d be a surprise to see the Rockies go to the level it’d take to bring in Contreras, unless owner Dick Monfort is prepared to shatter the organization’s previous spending levels. They could consider a run at a second-tier option like Christian Vázquez while relegating Díaz to the bench, even if doing so not long after signing the latter to an extension isn’t the outcome they had in mind. As with much of the roster, there’s room on paper for an addition, but budgetary limitations could lead the Rox to stick with an underperforming in-house option.

The Rockies are locked in to this core, and they’re clearly still of the belief the group can salvage better results. In Colorado’s defense, their visions of a Bryant-anchored lineup never got a chance to come to fruition this season. Even an MVP-caliber season from Bryant wouldn’t have gotten this team close to the postseason, but things wouldn’t have looked quite so bleak had he’d stayed healthy. Of course, Bryant’s durability (or lack thereof) was one of the primary red flags against him in free agency to begin with, and he’s now played in just 66% of his teams’ possible games dating back to 2018.

Most of the players in whom the club invested last year didn’t play up to the team’s expectations. They’ll need the bulk of that group to bounce back, since the Rockies have invested heavily enough in the roster there’s not likely to be a ton of room to supplement from the outside. Modest additions in the rotation, bullpen, outfield and behind the dish are all viable, but it’s unlikely they’ll make a splash at the top of the free agent market for a second consecutive winter. So much would need to break right it’s hard to envision the Rockies competing next season, but they’ve got little recourse but to hope for more from their top starters and last year’s big free agent addition.

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2022-23 Offseason Outlook Colorado Rockies MLBTR Originals

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Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Second Basemen

By Steve Adams | September 28, 2022 at 11:59pm CDT

With the offseason drawing nearer, MLBTR will be breaking down the free-agent class on a position-by-position basis. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco already profiled this winter’s crop of catchers and first basemen. You can check out the full list of this offseason’s free agents here, but today we’ll take a deeper look at the options for teams in need of help at second base next. It’s worth noting that there are star shortstops (e.g.  Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner) who could technically be pursued as a second base option for a team that already has an entrenched shortstop, but we’ll save that group for the shortstop preview.

Top of the Class

  • Jean Segura (33 years old next season)

The Phillies hold a $17MM club option on Segura, so he could technically go in the “2023 Options” section later in this preview. However, even though Segura is a good player who’s had a solid season, it’s likelier that the Phils pay the option’s $1MM buyout than pick up that hefty salary. Segura has ample experience at shortstop and has played some third base as well, but he’s been a strict second baseman in Philly recently and other teams likely view him similarly. The open market hasn’t been kind to non-star, second-base-only players like Segura in recent years, even when they’re coming off respectable seasons.

That’s absolutely the case here, as Segura has slashed .273/.335/.393 — good for a 106 wRC+ (suggesting he’s been six percent better than the league-average hitter). Segura is a tough strikeout but doesn’t walk much and has slowly seen his power dwindle to below-average levels. He generally has solid but unspectacular grades for his glovework at second base. He’ll be 33 next spring.

At his best, Segura does a little bit of everything — hitting for power, hitting for average, swiping some bases, playing solid defense — but doesn’t necessarily excel in any one area. It’d be a surprise if he got more than two years in free agency, and there are free-agent second basemen with higher ceilings but far less recent track record. If you want the safest bet to be a solid regular at the position, Segura is the guy.

  • Brandon Drury (30)

As is often the case, we’re looking at a pretty thin crop of established second basemen on the market this year’s market. That’s good news for Drury, who parlayed a minor league deal with the Reds into a standout free-agent platform. Drury hit .274/.335/.520 and clubbed 21 home runs with the Reds before a deadline trade shipped him to San Diego. He hasn’t been nearly as good with the Friars (.227/.270/.454) but is still hitting for power. On the whole, Drury has a .261/.317/.501 slash this season — about 23% better than the average hitter by measure of wRC+.

Defensively, Drury embodies the “jack of all trades, master of none” trope, but second base has historically been his best position. He’s drawn average marks there throughout his career and again in 2022. The 30-year-old righty has feasted on left-handed pitching but mostly just held his own against right-handers. Drury hit well in a tiny sample of 88 plate appearances with the 2021 Mets but was a non-factor with the Yankees and Blue Jays from 2018-20, batting a combined .205/.254/.346 in the rough equivalent of a full season of playing time (167 games, 582 plate appearances).

Drury will get a big league deal this winter. The questions are whether his Cincinnati contributions are overshadowed by his San Diego struggles, whether he’ll get a look as a utility option or as a player at one primary position, and whether there’s enough interest to generate a multi-year offer.

Veterans Coming Off Down Years

  • Robinson Cano (40)

Cano sat out the entire 2021 season serving a 162-game suspension for his second failed PED test and was released by three different teams in 2022 — the final season of the 10-year, $240MM contract he originally signed with Seattle. Cano hit just .150/.183/.190 in 104 Major League plate appearances this season and might not get another MLB chance at this point.

  • Adam Frazier (31)

One of the Padres’ marquee acquisitions at the 2021 trade deadline, Frazier fell into a deep slump the moment he was traded from Pittsburgh to San Diego. He was flipped to the Mariners in a cost-saving move last offseason and hasn’t rediscovered his Pittsburgh form with what’s now his third team. Frazier’s season in Seattle has been the worst full season of his big league career. He’s still been a solid defender between second base and the outfield corners, but he’s hitting just .235/.299/.308 in 579 plate appearances. Since leaving the Pirates, Frazier has a .243/.307/.315 slash in 790 plate appearances; he batted .283/.346/.420 in parts of six seasons with Pittsburgh.

  • Cesar Hernandez (33)

Long a steady regular at second base, Hernandez has played out his free-agent years on a series of one-year deals and might have reached the end of his time as an everyday player in Washington. After swatting a career-high 21 homers last year, the switch-hitter has just one long ball in 2022.  He’s still collected 27 doubles and four triples, but the swift disappearance of his power has left him with a .245/.308/.315 batting line — about 23% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. Hernandez’s defensive marks at second base have taken a nosedive in recent seasons, too, and Washington has begun playing him at other positions (third base, left field) to make room for the younger Luis Garcia.

  • Andrelton Simmons (33)

Simmons is, of course, primarily a shortstop. He saw more time at second base (106 innings) than at short (104) in a brief and disastrous tenure as a  Cub, though. Simmons had two lengthy IL stints in 2022 due to shoulder problems, hit just .173/.244/.187 in 85 plate appearances, and was released last month. Since a pair of above-average seasons at the plate in 2017-18, he’s combined for 1087 plate appearances with three teams (Angels, Twins, Cubs) and posted a combined .244/.298/.311 slash — just a 68 wRC+.

  • Jonathan Villar (32)

Another veteran infielder who signed a one-year deal with the Cubs and was released this summer, the switch-hitting Villar mustered only a .208/.260/.302 output in 220 plate appearances between Chicago and Anaheim this season. He posted solid numbers with the 2021 Mets and, from 2018-21, batted .259/.327/.408 (99 wRC+) with 58 homers and a hefty 105 steals in just shy of 2000 big league plate appearances. Villar can play any second, third and shortstop but doesn’t grade out well at any of the three.

Utility Players

  • Aledmys Diaz (32)

Diaz has played at least 45 innings at five different positions this season: all four infield spots and left field. He was primarily a shortstop early in his career and still has more total innings there than at any position. He never graded well there, and as he enters his mid-30s, he’ll be viewed as more of a utility player. Diaz’s .255/.302/.427 line in 2022 is quite similar to the .259/.318/.433 slash he’s posted over four total seasons with the ’Stros. He’s a right-handed bat who’s shown a pretty noticeable platoon split over the past couple seasons, though early in his career he hit fellow righties better than lefties.

  • Jace Peterson (33)

Peterson has played mostly third base in Milwaukee this season and posted sensational defensive marks there, including 10 Defensive Runs Saved and 5 Outs Above Average in just 583 innings. He’s spent more time at second base than any other position in his career on the whole, however. The lefty-swinging Peterson has revived his career with a solid three-year run in Milwaukee, hitting .241/.339/.379 (100 wRC+) with a hefty 12.4% walk rate, 16 homers and 22 steals in 677 plate appearances. He’s even handled lefties well in a small sample over the past two seasons, although a career .217/.289/.282 output against them still suggests he’s best deployed against righties only.

  • Donovan Solano (35)

A hamstring strain cost Solano more than two months, but since being activated, he’s batted .292/.343/.397 with four homers and 15 doubles in 280 trips to the plate. Solano has been quite good at home, in Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, and below-average on the road, but this is the fourth consecutive season he’s headed for at least league-average offense. Dating back to his 2019 resurgence with the Giants, “Donnie Barrels” is hitting .303/.351/425 in 1055 plate appearances. He’ll turn 35 in December, though, and his defensive grades at second, third and shortstop in recent years are all lacking. He’s posted excellent numbers in 166 innings as a first baseman this year, however (5 DRS, 2 OAA).

Depth Pieces

  • Ehire Adrianza (33): A switch-hitter with experience all over the infield and in the outfield corners, Adrianza has hit just .215/.302/.320 in 415 plate appearances dating back to 2020.
  • Charlie Culberson (34): Since hitting a career-high 12 homers with the 2018 Braves, Culberson carries a .248/.291/.384 slash in 542 plate appearances. He still hits lefties well but has never had much success against righties.
  • Matt Duffy (32): Duffy opened the season as the Angels’ second baseman but spent significant time on the injured list this season, primarily due to back trouble. He’s hit .255/.311/.317 in 225 plate appearances. Duffy can play any of second, third or shortstop, but injuries have limited him to 716 plate appearances over the past four seasons.
  • Alcides Escobar (36): Escobar had a brief resurgence with the 2021 Nats, but that was the only time since 2014 his bat has been close to average. He hit .218/.262/.282 in 131 plate appearances with Washington this year.
  • Phil Gosselin (34): The journeyman utility player has experience at every infield spot and in the outfield corners. He hit .149/.182/.176 in 77 plate appearances this year but did record a respectable .259/.316/.371 slash in 475 plate appearances from 2020-21.
  • Rougned Odor (29): The O’s have somewhat bizarrely given Odor 457 plate appearances despite poor defensive ratings (-9 DRS, -3 OAA) and a .211/.278/.366 slash that generally mirrors the .200/.270/.378 line he’s posted in 966 plate appearances since 2020.
  • Chris Owings (31): The big numbers Owings posted in a tiny sample with the 2021 Rockies look even flukier after he hit .107/.254/.143 in 68 plate appearances with Baltimore in 2022. He’s hit .190/.266/.300 over his past 667 MLB plate appearances.

2023 Options

  • Hanser Alberto (30): Alberto’s one-year deal with the Dodgers contained a $2MM club option and a $250K buyout. Los Angeles will all likely opt for the buyout after Alberto has batted .225/.235/.344 in 153 trips to the plate. Alberto has solid defensive ratings around the infield and hits lefties well — career .320/.337/.445 hitter in 577 plate appearances — giving him some bench appeal. His recent poor showings will be hard to overlook, though.
  • Josh Harrison (35): Harrison’s next plate appearance will be his 400th, boosting his 2023 club option value from $5.5MM to $5.625MM. There’s a $1.5MM buyout, making it a net $4.125MM option for the ChiSox. Based strictly on his production — nearly league-average offense and quality defense at multiple positions — Harrison’s been worth that amount. The Sox already have a crowded payroll and will be looking for more production from multiple spots in their lineup, however. They might also feel they can find comparable production/value either in-house or at a lower net price elsewhere on the market.
  • Jonathan Schoop (31): Schoop can technically become a free agent this winter, but he’d have to turn down a $7.5MM player option after hitting just .203/.236/.327 in 484 plate appearances for that to happen. That’s obviously quite unlikely, but it’s worth pointing out that defensive metrics agree that Schoop has resurfaced as one of the sport’s premier defenders. He’s tallied 11 Defensive Runs Saved and posted a comically high 27 Outs Above Average at second base, per Statcast.
  • Kolten Wong (32): Wong’s $10MM club option is a bit tougher to predict, if only because the Brewers tend to tread cautiously with club options and often opt for the buyout even of reasonable deals. For Wong, that’d be a $2MM buyout, rendering this an $8MM net decision. Milwaukee’s payroll next year is already loaded, and they may feel they can replace Wong’s value in-house. With an $8MM net value on the option, it’s possible he’d have some trade value to a team who’ll be looking for some upgrades at second base. Wong is hitting .252/.338/.435 and has tied a career-best with 15 homers. His defensive marks have fallen below average, however, as he’s missed time due to a calf injury for a second straight season.
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Carlos Correa Is Making His Opt-Out Decision Even Easier

By Steve Adams | September 27, 2022 at 11:58pm CDT

The Twins’ surprise signing of Carlos Correa to a three-year, $105.3MM contract was supposed to be the signature free-agent addition that washed away the lingering distaste of an awful 2021 campaign pushed them toward an AL Central crown. Instead, the Twins have wildly unperformed expectations for a second straight season, due in large part a once-again disastrous level of injury. Minnesota has had more IL days accrued than any team in the American League and trails only Cincinnati for the MLB lead in that odious category. (The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman took a player-by-player look at the Twins’ staggering injury woes just this morning.)

Very little has gone right in Minnesota this year, but with all the woes they’ve incurred in their catastrophic second half, Correa’s monstrous finish to the season has flown somewhat under the radar. As the team has crumbled around him, Correa has enjoyed just the type of sprint to the finish line the team had hoped for at the time of the contract.

Correa struggled in April and in July, sandwiching a paid of outstanding months between two below-average months at the plate. His bat picked up in late July, however, and he’s finishing out what could well be his only season with his strongest production of the year. Since Aug. 1, Correa is hitting .323/.405/.505 with eight homers, nine doubles and a triple in 222 plate appearances. Both his walk rate (11.7%) and strikeout rate (19.4%) during that stretch of 222 plate appearances are about two percentage points better than the levels Correa carried through the end of July.

Carlos Correa | Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Since Aug. 1, Correa ranks 10th in the Majors in batting average, ninth in on-base percentage and 25th in slugging percentage. His 162 wRC+ (indicating he’s been 62% better than the league-average hitter) in that time is tied with J.T. Realmuto for 13th in all of baseball. If you really want to cherry-pick, Correa’s ridiculous .386/.432/.670 slash over 95 plate appearances since Sept. 4 give him the fifth-best wRC+ in baseball during that time (216).

There’s no denying that Correa’s counting stats will be down from their 2021 levels when the season draws to a close. It’s at least possible that he swats another five homers and ends up tying last year’s mark off 26 long balls, though with nine games to play, it’s also unlikely. He’s not going to drive in as many runs as he did in ’21, and some of that is due to a curious power outage with runners in scoring position this season. It’s also due, however, to the simple fact that with Houston in 2021, Correa came to the plate 187 times with runners in scoring position and 304 times with men on base. This season, those numbers are currently at 116 and 248. He hasn’t been as good in big spots as he was a year ago, but also simply hasn’t had as many big spots, thanks to a Twins lineup that has routinely relied on minor league placeholders to fill in for injured regulars.

On the whole, aside from a slight dip in power (which correlates with the league-wide drop in power this season), Correa’s production at the plate in 2022 looks quite similar to in 2021. He’s hitting .289/.365/.468 as a Twin and hit .279/.366/.485 in his final season as an Astro. This year’s 89.9 mph average exit velocity is just barely shy of last year’s 90.2 mph exit velocity. He’s barreling balls more often this year than last (11.5% to 9.4%), and his overall hard-hit rate (43.8%) is a bit better than his 2021 level as well (42.5%). Essentially, Statcast feels he’s been almost the same hitter in Minneapolis as he was in Houston.

The biggest change in Correa’s valuations this season has been on the defensive side of things. His defensive ratings are down across the board, although Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating still peg him as a clearly above-average shortstop — just not the all-world, best-in-MLB-regardless-of-position defender he was in 2021. Statcast feels differently, dinging Correa at four outs below average — his first negative OAA mark since 2016.

Having just celebrated his 28th birthday last week, it seems unlikely Correa’s defensive skills have simply eroded. Repeating last year’s career-best 20 Defensive Runs Saved and massive 12 Outs Above Average was always going to be a challenge; defensive stats often oscillate just like their offensive counterparts, and the likely bet is that he’ll again be above-average across the board in 2023. He’s only made eight errors this season, six of which have been of the throwing variety. That only tells the tales of the balls Correa has gotten to, of course — hence the pitfalls of raw fielding percentage — but it does illustrate that Correa hasn’t become a clumsy-handed butcher who’s booting the routine plays.

Overall, Correa has been worth 5.0 wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference, and 4.2 WAR per FanGraphs. His .289/.365/.468 batting line is 40% better than league-average after adjusting for league and home park, by measure of wRC+, and he’s been lauded throughout the season by teammates, coaches and the front office staff alike for his influence leadership and influence in the clubhouse. It’s not necessarily the best-case outcome the Twins might’ve hoped for when signing him, but a strong four-to-five win season and positive off-the-field impact is a strong outcome all the same.

Correa has said at multiple times this season that he and his family feel at home in Minnesota and that he’s open to, if not hopeful for a long-term offer to stay with the Twins long term. That, of course, is a sensible thing for any pending free agent to say, and the fact that he’s open to a long-term deal (presumably at top-of-the-market dollars) shouldn’t be a surprise. It’s moderately notable that he’s chosen to publicly state his hope for a long-term arrangement rather than demur and say that contract talk is for the offseason, but public comments from Correa — as with most pending free agents — can be taken with a grain of salt.

The reality is that while Correa might never find the ten-year deal and $35MM-ish annual value he was likely seeking last offseason, he can absolutely find a long-term pact that will trounce the remaining two years and $70.2MM on his current contract with the Twins. Correa can very realistically command more than $30MM per year over a long term — likely with additional opt-out opportunities baked into the deal. Because of his age, even a ten-year deal would still only run through his age-37 season. Opting out has long seemed to be the likeliest outcome for Correa, as noted on last month’s update to MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings (where Correa placed fourth).

Correa’s torrid production has only improved his stock since that time. The Phillies, Cubs and Giants are reported to be among the teams that will look at free-agent shortstops. The Twins have already expressed public interest in extending the relationship. The Braves, Red Sox and Dodgers will all have their own star shortstops reach the market, creating potential openings for all three (in-house options notwithstanding). The Cardinals and Angels could need shortstops. The Orioles could theoretically be lurking and have already signaled that their payroll will increase.

The free-agent market for shortstops should be strong, and Correa’s standing among the 15 most-productive hitters in the sport over the final two months of the season has likely silenced any inkling of a doubt regarding his opt-out clause. The Twins shocked baseball in March when they signed Correa in the first place. It would register as an even bigger shock if Correa now forgoes his opportunity to return to the market on the heels of a season — and a finish — this strong.

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Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: First Basemen

By Anthony Franco | September 26, 2022 at 11:57pm CDT

As the offseason approaches, MLBTR is taking a position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. Today, we’ll focus on first base, a group with a few well-regarded veterans coming off quality seasons at the top.

Top of the Class

  • José Abreu (36*)

Abreu is coming off arguably the best season of any impending free agent first baseman. Even as he’s gotten into his mid-30s, he remains one of the better hitters in the game. Abreu carries a .304/.377/.445 line over 652 plate appearances, and he’s tied for the American League lead with 176 hits. He only has 15 home runs and is almost certain to finish with the lowest home run total of his nine-year MLB career, but he’s collected 36 doubles. Abreu also hasn’t lost much, if any, bat speed. His 92.1 MPH average exit velocity and 51.7% hard contact rate are both in line with the best marks of his career and near the top of the league overall. He’s hitting a few more ground-balls than before, but there’s no indication his physical abilities are dwindling.

Even heading into his age-36 season, Abreu will be one of the better offensive players on the market. Over the past three years, he owns a .289/.365/.489 line, ranking 14th in on-base percentage and 26th in slugging among 118 qualified hitters. He’s tough to strike out, has posted slightly above-average walk rates in each of the past two years and still has excellent batted ball metrics. He also hasn’t gone on the injured list in four seasons and has drawn plaudits for his clubhouse leadership in Chicago. The only real concern with Abreu is his age, but there’s already proof of concept he can remain productive beyond his prime-aged years. The White Sox issued him a qualifying offer back in 2019, meaning he’ll be ineligible to receive one this offseason.

  • Josh Bell (30)

Bell has shown the ability to carry a lineup at his best. He hit 37 home runs with a .277/.367/.569 line for the Pirates in 2019, and he mashed at a .301/.384/.493 clip over 437 plate appearances with the Nationals earlier this season. Yet he’s also been prone to extended down stretches, and he’s headed towards free agency amidst a sharp downturn in production. Since the Padres landed him at the trade deadline, he’s hitting .191/.310/.280 with only a trio of homers in 45 games. He also had a rough 2020 season and started slowly last year before catching fire in the second half.

Even with some inconsistency, there’s a lot to like about Bell. His overall .265/.355/.452 line dating back to the start of 2021 is a fair bit better than the .254/.331/.440 league mark for first basemen. Bell is a switch-hitter with excellent plate discipline, and he consistently draws walks in over 10% of his plate appearances. He has three 25-homer seasons on his resume and typically rates near the top of the league in average exit velocity and hard contact percentage, although his batted ball metrics this season have been right around league average. Bell has shown a promising combination of power and patience in years past, and he’s not a prototypical strikeout-prone slugger. His 15.6% strikeout rate this season is nearly seven points lower than the league mark. He looks like an impact bat when everything’s clicking, but he’ll hit the market coming off a rough couple months. Because of the midseason trade, Bell is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer.

Regulars

  • Trey Mancini (31)

Mancini made an incredible comeback from a battle with colon cancer that cost him the entire 2020 season. He’s hit at a slightly above-average level in each of the following two years, compiling 39 total home runs with a .251/.326/.418 line. Mancini’s production in each of the last two years has been roughly the same: average strikeout and walk rates with slightly better than par batted ball metrics and power output. Mancini’s over-the-fence pop was down during his first few months with the Orioles this season, but that’s certainly in part due to the changing dimensions at Camden Yards that weren’t friendly to right-handed hitters. Mancini is more a solid hitter than an impact one, with his .291/.364/.535 showing in 2019 looking increasingly like an outlier. He does most things well, though, and he was a beloved clubhouse and community presence in Baltimore. Mancini probably wouldn’t have received a qualifying offer regardless, but a midseason trade to the Astros officially took that off the table.

Veterans Coming Off Down Years

  • Yuli Gurriel (39)

Gurriel is a season removed from winning the American League batting title with a .319/.383/.462 showing in 2021. Unfortunately, he’s followed that up with a woeful .238/.283/.357 line over 558 plate appearances. Gurriel has been one of the least productive everyday players in the big leagues, and he’s now posted below-average showings in two of the past three seasons. Now past his 38th birthday, it seems he’s nearing or past the point where he’ll be a productive big leaguer. That also looked to be the case in 2020, though, and he responded with an excellent ’21 campaign. He’ll get another chance to do the same this winter, but there aren’t many positives to take away from his 2022 performance.

  • Carlos Santana (37)

One of the game’s best on-base hitters at his peak, Santana has seen his production dip over the past three years. He had well below-average numbers in 2020-21 but has bounced back somewhat this season, compiling a .194/.311/.378 line in 473 plate appearances between the Royals and Mariners. The sub-Mendoza line batting average is an obvious eyesore, but Santana’s overall hitting checks in at league average, by measure of wRC+. That’s largely thanks to his extremely patient approach, which has allowed him to work a walk in 14.2% of his plate appearances even as his results on batted balls have plummeted. Santana is probably miscast as a regular at this stage of his career, but he’s gotten significant run between first base and designated hitter with two teams this year thanks to his plate discipline.

  • Brandon Belt (35)

Like Gurriel, Belt was one of the better first basemen in 2021. A .274/.378/.597 showing earned him an $18.4MM qualifying offer from the Giants, which he accepted. The left-handed hitter didn’t come close to replicating that production this season, with his year largely derailed by knee problems. Belt hit .213/.326/.350 over 298 plate appearances while battling injury, and he underwent season-ending surgery on his right knee earlier this month. Indications are the surgery went well and he’s going to be ready for Spring Training. When healthy, Belt is capable of anchoring a lineup. Yet he’s battled plenty of injuries in recent years, and this trip to the market comes on the heels of a season diminished by knee issues.

Multi-Positional Players

  • Brandon Drury (30)

Drury will probably draw interest from teams looking for help all around the infield. He’s played mostly third base this season but also logged 25+ games at each of second and first base. A minor league signee by the Reds last winter, Drury has elevated his stock with a career showing in 2022. He mashed at a .274/.335/.520 clip with 20 homers in 385 plate appearances with Cincinnati. The Reds flipped him to the Padres at the trade deadline. He’s tailed off in San Diego, posting a meager .265 on-base percentage but collecting another eight round-trippers in 37 games. Drury looked to be in journeyman territory at this time last year, but his .261/.316/.501 cumulative line this season should get him a multi-year deal.

  • Donovan Solano (35)

Drury’s former teammate in Cincinnati, Solano plays a similar bat-first utility role. He’s worked mostly as a designated hitter this year, but he’s played frequently at the corner infield spots and second base as well. He’s hitting .292/.343/.397 over 280 plate appearances, his fourth straight above-average offensive year since reemerging late in his career as a member of the Giants. A glove-first second baseman early in his career with the Marlins, he’s compensated for declining defensive marks by hitting .280 or better in four consecutive seasons. Solano doesn’t walk much or have a ton of power, but his high-average game is atypical in today’s offensive environment. As with Drury, teams aren’t going to view him as an everyday option at first base, but he’s a good addition to a bench who can cover multiple spots on the infield.

Depth Types

  • Jesús Aguilar (33)

Aguilar hit 35 home runs a few seasons ago, and he was still an above-average hitter with the Marlins between 2020-21. The 2022 season has been a struggle, as he hit .236/.286/.388 over 456 plate appearances with the Fish and was released late last month. He hooked on with the Orioles but hasn’t contributed much in 12 games in Baltimore. Aguilar could be looking at a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite this winter.

  • Colin Moran (30)

A regular for a few seasons with the Pirates, Moran was on and off the Reds roster this year. He hit only .211/.305/.376 with five homers in 128 MLB plate appearances and posted slightly below-average numbers in Triple-A. Cincinnati released him earlier this month.

  • Frank Schwindel (31)

A longtime minor leaguer, Schwindel had a fantastic second half to the 2021 campaign. Getting his first extended MLB action with the Cubs, he hit .342/.389/.613 over 56 games. Chicago gave him an opportunity to see if he could emerge as a late-blooming regular, but he hit .229/.277/.358 in 292 trips to the plate this season. The Cubs released Schwindel last week.

  • Yoshi Tsutsugo (30)

Tsutsugo caught on with the Pirates late in 2021 and had a great final month. That earned him a $4MM contract to return to Pittsburgh, but he stumbled to a .171/.249/.229 line with only two homers in 193 plate appearances. The Bucs released him in August, and he signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays. He’s hitting well in Triple-A overall but striking out a third of the time there, and he hasn’t gotten a big league call from Toronto. Whether the Jays eventually add him to the MLB roster or not, he’ll be a free agent at year’s end.

Player Options

  • Anthony Rizzo (33), $16MM player option

Rizzo signed a two-year, $32MM guarantee with the Yankees last offseason. That deal afforded him an opt-out chance after this year, and there’s a solid case for Rizzo to take it following his best season since 2019. He’s connected on 32 home runs and slugged .492. Rizzo’s .223 batting average is among the worst of his career, but that’s largely due to a personal-worst .212 average on balls in play. A pull hitter who has been shifted on over 84% of his at-bats this season, per Statcast, he’s likely to be among the top beneficiaries of the forthcoming shift limitations. Even a slight uptick in his ball in play results could help Rizzo regain his peak form, since he’s still hitting the ball hard and is difficult to strike out.

The longtime Cub has a strong defensive reputation, although his public metrics have dipped over the past couple seasons. He’s also widely regarded as an excellent clubhouse presence and team leader. If Rizzo triggers his opt-out clause, the Yankees would have the ability to make him a qualifying offer.

  • Eric Hosmer (33), can opt out of final three years and $39MM remaining on his contract

There’s little intrigue with Hosmer’s opt-out decision. He’ll certainly opt in to the final $39MM on his deal (almost all of which will be paid by the Padres) to return to the Red Sox. Hosmer has a .267/.333/.381 line with eight homers in 414 plate appearances this season.

Club Options

  • Wil Myers (32), $20MM team option with $1MM buyout

The Padres will obviously buy Myers out, likely ending an eight-year run in the organization. Aside from a monster showing during the shortened 2020 campaign, the right-handed hitter has been a slightly above-average hitter for most of his time in San Diego. This season’s .255/.306/.379 showing across 265 plate appearances is his worst as a Padre, and he’s been limited to a situational role — primarily between the corner outfield and first base. Myers has some power and is a serviceable defender in the corners. He’s likely to land a big league deal but is probably miscast as an everyday player.

  • Miguel Sanó (30), $14MM team option with $3MM buyout

Sanó’s time with the Twins is probably nearing its end, as Minnesota is certain to buy out his 2023 option. The burly slugger has almost as much raw power as anyone in the sport, but his production has been inconsistent because of his huge strikeout totals. Sanó played in only 20 games this season because of left knee issues and hit terribly when on the field.

Note: Albert Pujols is playing on a one-year contract with the Cardinals and will technically qualify for free agency at season’s end. He has started 18 games at first base, but he’s already announced he’ll retire after the 2022 campaign.

* Player age for 2023 season

Previous FA positional previews: catcher

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The Cardinals’ Second-Half Breakout Outfielder

By Anthony Franco | September 26, 2022 at 10:27pm CDT

The Cardinals have been among the sport’s most consistently successfully clubs in recent years, finishing above .500 each season since 2008. Among the reasons for those perennially strong results: the team’s knack for developing players from the middle tier of the farm system into successful major leaguers.

That ability to churn out productive hitters is a key factor in the club closing in on an NL Central title. Plenty of attention has been devoted to the MVP-caliber contributions of corner infielders Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt and the incredible turnaround for Albert Pujols, who collected his 700th career homer last Friday. That’s well-deserved, but it shouldn’t obscure from the production the club has gotten outside the middle of the lineup.

There are a few players who’ve been instrumental pieces of Oliver Marmol’s lineup. Tommy Edman has played Gold Glove caliber defense at both middle infield positions and stolen 31 bases. Even with roughly league average hitting, he’s been worth between five and six wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. Brendan Donovan will probably get some third-place votes in NL Rookie of the Year balloting thanks to an excellent .279/.389/.377 line across 436 plate appearances. Yet neither player has been as impactful for St. Louis in the second half as second-year outfielder Lars Nootbaar.

Like Edman and Donovan, Nootbaar was a mid-round draftee. An eighth-round pick out of USC in 2018, he didn’t appear on an organizational prospect ranking at Baseball America before making his MLB debut last June. The left-handed hitter posted a league average .239/.317/.422 showing in 58 games as a rookie, but he didn’t have a place in a season-opening outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson. Nootbaar saw a fair bit of pinch hit work early in the season, tallying 101 plate appearances in 40 games through the All-Star Break. St. Louis optioned him to Triple-A on three separate occasions, including a nearly month-long stint between April and May.

Nootbaar wasn’t especially productive during that early-season work. A plantar fasciitis diagnosis for Bader pushed Carlson from right field to center in late June, opening up the former position. St. Louis then dealt the injured Bader to the Yankees at the August 2 trade deadline, subtracting from the big league outfield to address their rotation needs by bringing in Jordan Montgomery. That marked a show of faith in both Carlson to handle the increased defensive demands up the middle, and in Nootbaar to hold his own with regular playing time in right field.

St. Louis brass has to be pleased with the way Nootbaar has taken to the opportunity. Since deadline day, he’s hitting .228/.362/.497 with nine home runs and seven doubles over 185 plate appearances. While the batting average isn’t eye-catching, he ranks 37th in on-base percentage and 30th in slugging among 149 qualified hitters over that stretch. Overall, Nootbaar’s season line is up to .229/.345/.458 in 316 plate appearances, offense that checks in 29 points above league average by measure of wRC+.

The results are strong as is, but the more impressive aspect is that Nootbaar has found success with dismal ball in play results. He owns a .221 BABIP since deadline day, the sixth-lowest mark among qualifiers. That’s not entirely attributable to poor fortune; Nootbaar hasn’t hit many line drives over this stretch. Yet he’s both hitting the ball hard and showing a strong awareness for the strike zone. His 17.3% walk rate since the deadline is topped only by Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, and he’s one of eight qualified batters with more free passes than punchouts. His 91.6 MPH average exit velocity and 47.5% hard contact rate, meanwhile, are each decidedly better than average.

Nootbaar’s production has tailed off in September following a scorching August, largely thanks to a woeful .146 BABIP this month. The power, plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills have largely remained intact, however. He has a 10:13 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 68 September plate appearances, and he’s connected on six extra-base hits (including four longballs).

During his first extended action as an everyday major league player, Nootbaar has shown plus power potential, an extremely discerning eye and decent bat-to-ball skills. Even if his line drive rate stays down, he’s shown the ability to be productive despite a subpar batting average. If Nootbaar can improve upon his bat control even slightly, he has a chance to be a well above-average offensive player.

He’ll certainly need more than two months of solid production to cement himself as a core piece of the organization’s future, but he’s played his way into an everyday outfield job heading into the playoffs. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Michael Girsch and the rest of the front office took a risk in dealing from their outfield in the middle of a contested division race. Nootbaar has, thus far, rewarded their faith by effectively stepping into that vacancy.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Poll: National League Rookie Of The Year

By Steve Adams | September 26, 2022 at 11:43am CDT

This year’s National League Rookie of the Year voting will be a particularly fun one because the two front-runners happen to be teammates. Braves right-hander Spencer Strider and center fielder Michael Harris II both burst onto the scene in 2022 and both cemented themselves as building blocks in Atlanta. Wins above replacement is far, far from the be-all and end-all in ascertaining player value, but it’s still telling that Strider and Harris are both north of four WAR on the season (per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs), while no other NL rookie has even three wins above replacement per either version of the metric.

Harris and Strider have both played at an All-Star level this season, though neither actually made the All-Star team this summer. That’s due largely to the fact that Strider began the season in the bullpen and Harris didn’t make his debut until late May. Given their play in 2022, that could change as early as next summer.

There’s still a bit of time for the bottom line to change, although with Strider on the 15-day injured list due to an oblique strain, his regular season is likely over. Harris will have another nine games to build his case, pending any off-days or an untimely injury of his own. Let’s take a quick look at each player’s candidacy.

A Quick Case for Strider

Dominant this season as both a reliever (2.22 ERA in 24 1/3 innings) and a starter (2.77 ERA, 107 1/3 innings), Strider leads all National League rookies with 131 2/3 innings pitched. Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene, a popular ROY pick prior to the season, is a distant second place at 113 2/3 innings. Strider’s gaudy 38.3% strikeout rate isn’t just the best among rookie pitchers in 2022 — it’s the best among all Major League pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings. Shane McClanahan is the only pitcher in Major League Baseball (again, min. 100 innings pitched) who has induced swinging strikes at a higher clip than Strider’s 15.5%.

Strider’s overall numbers — 131 2/3 innings, 2.67 ERA, 38.3% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate — are so dominant that if he had a few more innings on his resume, he’d be in the mix for some down-ballot Cy Young votes. (He may still get a handful, but he’s not going to stack up alongside the current leaders.)

A common argument against Strider is that he shouldn’t be favored because he plays less often than an everyday player (e.g. Harris). Firstly, unlike most of even the fringe ROY candidates, Strider broke camp with the Braves this year. He’s been on the roster since Opening Day, which Harris and others can’t claim.

Secondly, Strider has faced 528 batters this season and, were it not for the oblique injury, would’ve pushed that number close to 600. Even that 528 mark is greater than the total number of plate appearances for any National League rookie hitter. Strider (and pitchers in general) may appear in a fewer number of their team’s overall games, but as a pitcher, he has more direct influence on the outcome of every single plate appearance than any of the defenders behind him. On average, he faced 21.7 hitters per start. That’s nearly a week’s worth of plate appearances for a position player.

Put more succinctly, the counter-argument to that common knock on Strider is that hitters play a smaller role in determining the outcome of a large number of their team’s games; pitchers play a larger role in determining the outcome of a small number of their team’s games.

A Quick Case for Harris

In terms of wins above replacement, Harris trails only Julio Rodriguez for the rookie lead, per FanGraphs (4.8), and only Rodriguez and Cleveland’ Steven Kwan, per Baseball-Reference (5.1). He’s a dynamic player in all facets of the game, hitting .305/.346/.535 with 19 home runs and 19 steals apiece. Harris doesn’t walk much (4.7%) and strikes out a bit more than average (23.8%), but that hasn’t stopped him from being 43% better than the average hitter, by measure of wRC+ (or 42%, per OPS+).

Defensively, Harris looks like a future Gold Glover. He might not win one this season, as his cumulative defensive contributions are impacted by the fact that he spent nearly two months in the minors, but every publicly available metric is in agreement that he’s a plus, if not elite defender. In 949 innings of center field work, Harris has received standout marks from Defensive Runs Saved (7), Ultimate Zone Rating (3.9) and Statcast (6 Outs Above Average, 5 Runs Above Average), to name a few. Harris ranks in the 92nd percentile of Statcast’s Outs Above Average, the 87th percentile for his jumps on balls hit to the outfield, and in 94th percentile for pure sprint speed.

It’s true that Strider has more batters faced than Harris has plate appearances, but Harris has fielded far more balls in play in center field than Strider has on the mound. His value as a defensive player is far superior, particularly given his elite results in 2022. Harris also provides baserunning value that Strider doesn’t have the ability (or even the opportunity) to match. Despite appearing in just 106 games so far, Harris ranks 17th among all big leaguers in baserunning runs above average, per FanGraphs’ — a cumulative stat that incorporates more than just his impressive 19-for-21 showing in stolen bases.

—

There’s really no wrong answer; both players have had sensational starts to their career and both have been absolutely vital pieces of a Braves team that trails the Mets by 1.5 games for the National League East lead. Still, only one of the two is going to take home Rookie of the Year honors in November. Who should it be?

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Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Michael Harris II Spencer Strider

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Big Hype Prospects: Tovar, Flores, Rodriguez, Manzardo, Gentry

By Brad Johnson | September 23, 2022 at 6:25pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, we use Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year awards as a lens to highlight a few guys who didn’t get enough love in this column.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AAA)
(AA) 295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Tovar wasn’t picked for the Rockies Player of the Year in what ultimately was a coin-flip situation with Adael Amador. However, we discussed Amador last week, and Tovar is set to make his debut today. After performing well in Double-A, Tovar compiled 23 successful plate appearances at Triple-A. He’ll get a brief trial to finish out 2022 while the club considers its long-term plans.

Scouting reports often start with Tovar’s defense which is universally well-regarded and should stand out in a post-extreme-shifts metagame. He relies far less on positioning than the many big-bodied shortstops around the league. As a hitter, he’s improved his quality of contact this season. There’s still concern he’ll be strikeout and soft contact prone early in his career as he further develops his plate discipline. His selectivity does seem to be trending in a positive direction.

A couple freely available reports such as this one from FanGraphs make mention of his hit tool as a carrying trait. Hit-tool-oriented prospects tend to have rocky developmental paths (no pun intended). At lower levels, they perform well against pitches outside of the zone which lends itself to an ineffective, swing-happy approach in the Majors. We’ll soon get a first look at how Tovar adjusts.

Wilmer Flores, 21, SP, DET (AA)
83.2 IP, 10.22 K/9, 2.26 BB/9, 3.01 ERA

The latest pitcher to arise in the Tigers system, Flores squashed High-A hitters early in 2022 before moving on Double-A. Not to be confused with his brother, 10-year veteran infielder Wilmer Flores, Flores is a pitcher by the same name who relies on arm strength and a pair of power breaking balls. Reports mention poor command despite a low walk rate – an indication he’s throwing his stuff in the zone and letting hitters get themselves out. For a poor-command pitcher with plus stuff, there are worse ways to develop. This season, at least two notoriously errant relievers – Jose Alvarado and Felix Bautista – had breakouts by simply throwing more pitches in the strike zone.

Flores entered the season firmly considered a future reliever. His work this year, including maintaining velocity deep into outings, is beginning to change that perspective.

Endy Rodriguez, 22, C/2B, PIT (AAA)
(AA) 138 PA, 8 HR, 1 SB, .356/.442/.678

Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, Rodriguez’s development advanced by leaps and bounds this season. He entered the year as a utility man with some catching experience. He now looks the part of either a premium catcher or second baseman. His hitting, which has always been discipline-forward, took a big step this season. Including all three levels he’s played, Rodriguez hit 24 home runs, 37 doubles, and three triples in 520 plate appearances. Not only is he hitting for power, he’s making excellent swing decisions and improving at every level. In a more widely applauded system, this performance could merit inclusion among the Top 25 prospects. As it stands, he’s quietly leaping onto Top 100 lists.

Kyle Manzardo, 22, 1B, TBR (AA)
122 PA, 5 HR, 1 SB, .323/.402/.576

A six-foot-one-inch first baseman, Manzardo will have to mash to earn his way to the Majors. Fortunately, he’s already doing so. He also finds himself in the right organization. The Rays are the only team to give the similarly height-deprived Ji-Man Choi a chance to find a role. Manzardo shows better potential to avoid strikeouts than Choi while maintaining comparable plate discipline. Including High-A, his 22 home runs in 397 plate appearances represent an improvement on preseason scouting reports that suggested he had below-average power. Manzardo, a left-handed hitter, skews slightly to fly ball contact. Depending on the development of his power, he could become a premium first baseman or else struggle with low BABIPs at the upper levels. The early returns suggest the first outcome is likelier.

Tyler Gentry, 23, OF, KC (AA)
331 PA, 16 HR, 8 SB, .321/.417/.555

The Royals were perhaps held back by the sheer volume of prospects they promoted to the Majors this season. That also means there’s room for new names to ascend, like Gentry. A well-rounded hitter, Gentry thrived in 152 High-A plate appearances before ascending to Double-A where he continued to excel. Per Baseball America, he credits a simplified approach and load with his offensive breakout – not that he wasn’t already a well-regarded hitter entering the season. The knock on him is his defense. He’s a corner outfielder who isn’t known for particularly good jumps. It’s a profile that requires a big bat to work in the Majors. While he doesn’t have a single carrying trait as a hitter, the entire profile plays up thanks to plus discipline and a knack for barreled contact. Keep an eye on his BABIPs next season.

Five More

Taylor Dollard, SEA (23): The Mariners graduated Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby. Matt Brash joined the bullpen, Emerson Hancock had a down season, and Noelvi Marte was exported to Cincinnati. Dollard steps in as a candidate for the top spot in the Seattle system on a pitchability basis. The right-hander limits walks (1.94 BB/9) and can induce plenty of whiffs when needed. He mostly pitches to contact, making him a potential future innings-eater on track to debut next season.

Louie Varland, MIN (24): Making his third big league start as I write, Varland pitched ably in 20 Double-A appearances before an impressive four-game stint in Triple-A. While he’s not a physical specimen and lacks the mutant velocity associated with most of today’s pitching prospects, Varland does possess a four-pitch repertoire of average offerings. He’s able to mix and match in a way that should, eventually, keep big league hitters off balance. He’ll probably toss his share of clunkers along the way.

Jeremy De La Rosa, WSH (20): A left-handed hitting center fielder with defensive chops, De La Rosa performed well as an age-appropriate position player at Low-A. A promotion to High-A didn’t slow his base thievery, but it did render his bat impotent (53 wRC+). De La Rosa seems poised for a slow-burn developmental path. Defense all but assures an eventual Major League arrival while a high strikeout rate could render him a long-term backup.

Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS (22): A five-foot-eight-inch utility man, Rafaela hit for surprising power across two levels this season. He’s an aggressive hacker with plenty of swing-and-miss to his game, traits that could be exploited in the upper levels. This season, he managed 21 home runs and 28 stolen bases in 524 plate appearances split between High- and Double-A. He turned 22 five days ago.

Colson Montgomery, CWS (20): Montgomery started slow and didn’t impress in several looks I took this season. However, the composite stats show promise from the multi-sport athlete. He makes a ton of contact, works counts well, and is already developing sneaky power. Most players with his background – he was a rising hoops star who also played quarterback – tend to move slowly through the lower levels. Montgomery has already risen to Double-A.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Endy Rodriguez Ezequiel Tovar Kyle Manzardo Tyler Gentry Wilmer Flores (b. 2001)

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