Looking At Pirates’ Past Trades That Are Starting To Pay Off
The Pirates are off to an excellent start to begin the 2023 season, currently sporting a record of 16-7 with a run differential of +25. It’s too early to simply assume that they are quite this good, especially since many of their games have come against teams that aren’t expected to be competitive, like the Reds and the Rockies. But after a couple of 100-loss seasons and an even worse winning percentage in the shortened 2020 season, it’s an encouraging development, even if it’s not wholly sustainable.
As with any rebuilding club, the talent on the roster has been acquired in various ways. Some were brought into the organization with high draft picks, like Ke’Bryan Hayes and Mitch Keller. There are former amateur free agents, like Rodolfo Castro and Ji Hwan Bae. There’s also some veterans on modest free agent deals, like Carlos Santana, Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez. But a sizable portion of the roster was acquired via trade, as is often the case with rebuilding clubs, who use the playbook of sending established players away for prospects.
Some of these trades have been on the minor side, bringing in role players like Connor Joe or Mark Mathias. There have also been a few trades that haven’t worked out, such as the Clay Holmes deal, but here are some that have had a significant impact on the current roster. Also, just as a quick side note before launching into this, general manager Neal Huntington was fired in October of 2019. While most of the moves listed below were completed by his successor, Ben Cherington, the credit on the first few goes to the previous regime.
- July 31, 2017: Dodgers acquire Tony Watson for Oneil Cruz and Angel German.
Watson had spent his entire career with the Pirates up until this point, having been drafted by them and making it to the majors by 2011. He had posted consistently solid results, never finishing a season with his ERA above 4.00, even coming in below 2.00 in both 2014 and 2015. In the 2017 season, he was in his final campaign of control before becoming a free agent. The Pirates made the playoffs in three straight years from 2013 to 2015 but fell below .500 in the two subsequent seasons. That made it a fairly logical move to flip an impending free agent reliever who wasn’t going to be a qualifying offer candidate.
German was a relief prospect who never amounted to much, topping out at Double-A in 2019. He reached free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Rays in 2020 but was released before pitching for them. But landing Cruz is in this deal looks like it will work out quite well for the Bucs. He’s currently on the 60-day injured list due to an ankle injury that required surgery, but he could be back around August. There are concerns about his strikeout rates and shortstop defense, but he has some of the best tools in the league, consistently featuring among the leaders in terms of exit velocities, arm strength and sprint speed. His eventual value will be determined by how much he refines the rougher edges in his game, but he clearly has incredible talent and should impact the club in some way. He’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 campaign.
- January 13, 2018: Astros acquire Gerrit Cole for Joe Musgrove, Michael Feliz, Colin Moran and Jason Martin
After two straight disappointing seasons, the Pirates clearly decided to lean in to their rebuild prior to 2018, making two significant trades within a few days of each other. The first one saw them deal Cole, who had two years of control remaining, to Houston. In return, they got four younger players, the most significant of whom was Musgrove. At the time of the trade, there were some questions about whether he was better suited to be a starter or a reliever. The Bucs gave him the chance to prove himself as a capable rotation member, which worked out for both parties. He posted a 4.23 ERA in 325 1/3 innings over three seasons in Pittsburgh, showing enough potential to establish his bona fides as a starter. That gave him enough trade value to get flipped to his hometown Padres, allowing the Pirates to add more young talent, which we will get to below.
- January 15, 2018: Giants acquire Andrew McCutchen and cash for Kyle Crick, Bryan Reynolds and international bonus pool space.
As if the Cole trade wasn’t enough of a sign that the rebuild was on, the Pirates took down the Jolly Roger and waved a white flag when they traded McCutchen just two days later. He had been an iconic player for the franchise for many years, helping them return to contention after two decades of losing, earning the 2013 National League Most Valuable Player award in the process. He had signed an extension with the club going into 2012, a deal that ran through 2017 with a club option for 2018. He had fallen off from his MVP heights but the $14.5MM option price was still a bargain, so the Pirates made the easy decision to pick that up instead of paying the $1MM buyout. However, he would eventually play that season in San Francisco.
While the trade of a face-of-the-franchise player like McCutchen was undoubtedly frustrating for the fan base, it’s paying off now. Crick had some decent results at times for the Pirates but was ultimately released in 2021. The real coup of the deal is Reynolds, who has emerged as a new face-of-the-franchise player for Pittsburgh. He’s hit 79 home runs in his career and is currently sitting on a batting line of .282/.359/.484. He’s set for free agency after 2025, which has made him the constant subject of rumors, both the trade and extension variety. To date, both paths are still open, making it unclear if Reynolds will be part of the next playoff club in Pittsburgh or an extra bullet added to the bottom of this list.
- January 27, 2020: Diamondbacks acquire Starling Marte and cash for Liover Peguero, Brennan Malone and international spending money.
The Pirates managed to sneak above .500 in 2018 but had a dismal season after that, going 69-93 in 2019, making it unsurprising that the selloff continued. Marte had previously signed an extension with the Bucs that ran through 2019 but had two affordable option years, meaning he still had a couple of years of control at the time of this trade. But with contention in that time frame seeming unlikely, he was sent to the desert.
Malone is now 22 years old and has yet to climb higher than Class-A in the minors. Injuries and the pandemic have limited him to fewer than 30 professional innings. Peguero in on the 40-man roster and made his MLB debut last year, though he got into just a single game. His prospect rank has faded in recent years, but he was still considered to be among the 10 best in the system as of the start of this season. He’s off to a slow start this year in a small sample of 11 Double-A games, so he’ll have to turn things around to stop his stock from falling further.
- January 19, 2021: In a three-team trade, the Padres acquire Joe Musgrove and the Mets acquire Joey Lucchesi while the Pirates receive David Bednar, Endy Rodriguez, Hudson Head, Drake Fellows and Omar Cruz.
As mentioned earlier, Musgrove had established himself as a viable starter, enough to reap a pile of prospects that has already worked out well for the Bucs. Bednar has become one of the better relievers in the game, currently sporting a 2.82 ERA and 31.3% strikeout rate while racking up 30 saves. The fact that he happens to be a Pittsburgh kid is just icing on the cake. He’s yet to reach arbitration and isn’t slated for free agency until the 2026-27 offseason.
There’s still plenty of time for the Bucs to get even more out of this deal as well, as the other four players are still in their system. The most notable of them is Rodríguez, who is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t made it to the majors just yet. The catcher/infielder/outfielder is a versatile player with a potent bat, making him one of the most highly-touted prospects in the sport. He’s considered to be one of the top 50 prospects in the league by each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Keith Law of The Athletic and MLB Pipeline.
- January 24, 2021: Yankees acquire Jameson Taillon for Roansy Contreras, Miguel Yajure, Maikol Escotto and Canaan Smith-Njigba.
Taillon had some good seasons working in the Pittsburgh rotation from 2016 to 2018, but Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2019 and all of his 2020. He was set to return to the mound in 2021 when he still had a couple of years of control remaining. Despite the injury uncertainty, the Yankees believed in Taillon enough to acquire those two seasons, sending four prospects to Pittsburgh in exchange.
Yajure is already gone from the organization and Escotto’s prospect stock has fallen off, but the other two players are still on the roster. Most evaluators project Smith-Njigba for a bench/utility role, though he’s still young, turning 24 this coming weekend. Regardless, the most significant player in this batch seems to be Contreras, as he’s already in the club’s rotation. He has a 3.84 ERA through his first 119 2/3 innings in the big leagues and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. If he can continue to hold his own against major league hitters, then the Pirates have a rotation building block in place for the foreseeable future.
- July 26, 2021: Padres acquire Adam Frazier for Jack Suwinski, Tucupita Marcano and Michell Miliano.
Frazier was drafted by the Pirates and had spent his entire career with them up until this point, establishing himself as a solid utility option. His bat was roughly around league average, a useful asset for a player who could be plugged in at almost any position on the diamond. He was having a BABIP-backed spike in 2021, hitting .324/.388/.448 when the Pirates sold high, trading him away while he still had a year and a half of control remaining, getting three young players in return.
Miliano is a 23-year-old reliever who’s yet to surpass High-A, so he’s probably the least likely of this group to be a key contributor going forward. Marcano is in the big leagues but is expected to serve a bench/utility role. Suwinski, however, has the chance to be an impactful member of the club. He’s been playing all three outfield spots in the big leagues, seeming to be a passable defender at any of them. He’s also hit 24 home runs in just 122 games thus far. His 30.3% strikeout rate is certainly on the high side, but he’s also drawn walks at a healthy 12% clip. His .209/.310/.440 career batting line to this point in his career translated into a 109 wRC+, and his batted-ball data in 2023’s small sample is particularly interesting (95.2 mph average exit velocity, 56.3% hard-hit rate). He’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 season.
- July 22, 2022: Mets acquire Daniel Vogelbach for Colin Holderman.
Vogelbach was a known power threat, having hit 30 home runs with the Mariners in 2019, but he struggled in the next few seasons and bounced to the Blue Jays and Brewers, getting non-tendered by the latter club after the 2021 season. The Pirates signed him to a modest deal worth $1MM plus incentives, watched him get into a groove and flipped him to the Mets after a few months.
Holderman has just 35 major league appearances to this point in his career, but the results are fairly encouraging. He has a 3.20 ERA with a 49.1% ground ball rate, helping him keep the ball in the park to such a degree that he’s yet to allow a home run. That surely won’t be able to last forever, but he’s working himself into a high-leverage role with the club, having accrued eight holds already in this young season.
- August 1, 2022: Cardinals acquire José Quintana and Chris Stratton for Johan Oviedo and Malcom Nuñez.
Quintana has a long track record of success in the majors but struggled in both 2020 and 2021, getting bumped to the bullpen in both seasons. The Pirates bought low by signing him to a one-year, $2MM deal and giving him a shot to re-establish himself as a starter. It worked, as he registered a 3.50 ERA with the Bucs, allowing them to flip him to the Cardinals for a couple of younger players. Nunez has yet to reach the majors and is struggling in Triple-A right now, but he’s still just 22 years old. Baseball America and FanGraphs both considered him the club’s #21 prospect coming into the season.
Oviedo was initially a starter with the Cards but got bumped to the bullpen last year. The Pirates are giving him another shot at rotation work with good results so far. He has a 2.78 ERA in 11 starts for Pittsburgh between last year and this year, with a 22.4% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 54.8% ground ball rate. Oviedo has more than doubled his curveball usage in 2023, and is throwing the pitch harder than ever before. It’s a small sample, but his swinging-strike rate is up from 11.2% to 14.6%. He’s under club control through 2027.
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It’s no secret that the Pirates are a low-spending club. Looking at data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which goes back to the year 2000, they’ve never even made it to the middle of the pack in terms of payroll. They’ve frequently been at the very bottom of spenders and their highest relative rank was getting to 19th place way back in 2001. For the clubs that keep the purse strings that tight, it’s essential that they succeed in getting the most out of younger players who haven’t yet maximized their earning power.
Since the major league economic system artificially deflates player salaries until they get to six years of service time, it’s important for a club on the stingy side to find good young players, whether it’s those that they draft/sign or those they get from other organizations. As the Pirates appear to be on the verge of being respectable again, or perhaps have already arrived, they seem to be doing just that. As mentioned, they’ve had the occasional clunker, like the Holmes deal, but a decent chunk of the roster was built via trade. Two of their regular outfielders were acquired in trades, as was their everyday shortstop, although he’s on the shelf right now. Their dealing has also given them two of their five rotation members, some of their best relievers, a few utility players and some key prospects.
NPB To MLB: 7 Players To Watch
A new wave of NPB players have chosen to pursue their big-league dreams in recent years. Just this past offseason, Kodai Senga signed a five-year, $75MM deal with the Mets, Masataka Yoshida signed a five-year, $90MM deal with the Red Sox, and Shintaro Fujinami signed a one-year, $3.25MM deal with the Athletics. One offseason prior, Seiya Suzuki signed a five-year, $85MM deal.
Making the move from NPB to MLB is a complicated process. A player needs to have nine seasons of experience on the first team (i.e. the NPB “major league” club, as opposed to their minor league team) before they can become an overseas free agent. At the earliest, a player drafted out of high school becomes a free agent at age 27 and a player drafted out of college becomes one at age 31. This is a long period of time and can take even longer if a player misses time due to injury. Players who want to make the move sooner instead opt to use the NPB-MLB posting system. The posting system grants all 30 MLB teams the right to negotiate with a player after posting, but the team is subject to paying a posting fee based on the amount of guaranteed money in the contract.
The two main difficulties with the posting system are that 1.) players need their team’s permission to be posted, and 2.) players need to wait several years before being classified as “professionals” rather than “amateurs” under Major League Baseball’s international free agency standards. In order to be considered a “professional” and thus be exempt from MLB’s hard-capped bonus pool system for international amateurs, a foreign-born player must be at least 25 years of age and have at least six years of experience in a professional league (NPB, in this case). Shohei Ohtani knew this and chose to pursue a jump to MLB at age 23 anyway, limiting himself to a signing bonus a little north of $2.3MM because his age made him an “amateur.” Had he waited two more years, Ohtani could have potentially commanded 100 times that sum as a “professional” under MLB’s classifications. It was a sizable bet on himself, but it looks like one that will pay off.
Some teams are traditionally open-minded about letting players pursue their MLB dreams, most notably the Nippon Ham Fighters, while other teams such as the Yomiuri Giants and the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks have traditionally not given permission to their players when they ask to be posted for MLB clubs.
This series will keep track of NPB players who may be making their way to the MLB in the near future.
Let’s get started with players who may be available in the 2023 offseason.
Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)
1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a 24-year-old right-hander for the reigning Pacific League and Nippon Series champions Orix Buffaloes. He began his career as a starter but moved to the bullpen in 2018 and became one of the best relievers in NPB. He was moved back to the rotation in 2019 and established himself as an elite starter by leading the Pacific League with a 1.95 ERA.
Yamamoto has since become the undisputed ace of NPB. He’s won the Sawamura Award — the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young Award — and the Pacific League MVP Award in back-to-back seasons. He posted an insane 1.39 ERA, 206 strikeouts, 28% strikeout rate, and 5.4 walk rate in 2021, and followed that up with a 1.68 ERA, 205 strikeouts, a 27.4 strikeout rate, and a 5.6 walk rate in 2022. Yamamoto also won the Gold Glove award in each of those seasons. MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote more on Yamamoto back in Februrary. Some scouts believe that Yamamoto is ahead of Senga.
The Pacific League MVP relies on a deep six-pitch repertoire and elite control to pile up strikeouts. Yamamoto primarily leans on his mid-90s fastball, splitter, and curveball, but he occasionally mixes in a cutter, two-seamer, and slider. The right-hander is known for his unique training style, with a focus on flexibility and mobility as well as using javelin-like and hammer-like tools. He also has a personal chef/nutritionist to manage his diet. While he has not had a major injury so far in his career, the only concerns with the Buffaloes ace are his slight frame (5’10″, 175 pounds) and adjusting to the grueling MLB schedule. Although he has not thrown on a four-day rest schedule, he has showcased his durability by throwing over 190 innings in each of the past two seasons.
As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote in his recent 2023 FA class power rankings, Yamamoto’s contract could exceed Masahiro Tanaka’s contract with the Yankees in 2014. Tim wrote: “Ten years after the Tanaka deal, I feel Yamamoto is indeed capable of reaching $200MM before accounting for a posting fee.”
Yamamoto is off to another fantastic start this season. In the two games he’s started so far, he has a 0.75 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 12 innings of work.
2. Yuki Matsui
Yuki Matsui is a 27-year-old left-handed reliever for the Tohoku Rakuten Eagles. He has a career 2.46 ERA, 31.9% strikeout rate, 201 saves, and 68 holds in 447 appearances. Matsui has a four-pitch arsenal featuring a four-seam fastball that goes up to 96mph but averages between 92-94, a dominant splitter and slider, and a lesser-used curveball.
Matsui is on track to become a true international free agent this offseason, so he won’t need to utilize the posting system to gauge interest from MLB clubs. Japanese media is already speculating that he may sign with an MLB team. Matsui has said he is focused on the upcoming season but is open to the move. Sports Hochi reported that Matsui and the Eagles have discussed future MLB plans during contract negotiations over the years.
Matsui first hit the national spotlight as a high school player at the 2012 Summer Koshien Tournament, the Japanese equivalent of March Madness, where he set the tournament record for most strikeouts in a single game with 22, and the longest consecutive strikeouts with 10. He finished that tournament with the most strikeouts in a single tournament by a lefty with 68.
Matsui came into the league as a starter but was moved to the bullpen in 2015 and since then has consistently been one of the best closers in the NPB. Out of the seven seasons he was the primary closer, Matsui recorded over 30 saves in five of them. His only “down” year came in 2018 — he still posted a 3.34 that season — but he bounced back with a career-high 68 appearances and 38 saves in 2019. He was moved to a starting role in 2020, before ultimately moving back to the bullpen at the end of the season where he has remained until now. Matsui struggled adjusting to the WBC ball, which is closer to the MLB ball, so that may be a concern moving forward.
Despite his difficulties at the WBC, Matsui had a terrific start to the season. He’s thrown five shutout innings, recorded four saves and fanned eight of his 18 opponents (44.4%). Dating back to 2021, Matsui has a 1.26 ERA in 99 2/3 innings of relief work.
3. Shota Imanaga
Shota Imanaga is a 29-year-old left-handed starting pitcher for the Yokohama DeNa Baystars. Fans might recognize Imanaga’s name after his start for Team Japan in the World Baseball Classic final against Team USA. The left-hander has a 3.24 ERA, 24.3 strikeout rate, 7.3 walk rate and 854 2/3 innings in 136 career starts. He had a career year last season, posting a 2.26 ERA, 23.6 strikeout rate and 5.2 walk rate in 143 2/3 innings. He also recorded his first no-hitter in June.
The Baystars ace primarily throws four pitches, including a 91-94 mph fastball, a changeup that is close to a split-change, a cutter, and a curveball, while occasionally mixing in a slider. While he does not have an overpowering fastball, he has elite command and uses his changeup to get strikeouts. He had shoulder surgery in 2020 but has made a full recovery, and shoulder trouble hasn’t been a recurring issue for him.
Imanaga has expressed his desire to pitch in the big leagues since 2021 but won’t be an overseas free agent until the 2025 season. Sponichi reported in December that Imanaga planned to sign with the U.S.-based agency Octagon to help talks toward a posting agreement. The Baystars have never posted a player before, so it is unclear if they are open to posting Imanaga. However, Imanaga is set to become a domestic free agent within NPB this offseason, so if the Baystars do not allow Imanaga to go to the big leagues, he could potentially move to another NPB team.
Imanaga is yet to pitch for the first team this season as the Baystars manage his workload after pitching for Team Japan. He’s completed his minor league starts with no complications and is set to make his regular-season debut with the first team soon.
4. Kona Takahashi
Kona Takahashi is a 26-year-old right-handed starter for the Saitama Seibu Lions who had his career-best season last year. In his 26 starts, Takahashi recorded a 2.20 ERA and struck out 18.2% of hitters faced in 175 2/3 innings. He was wilder earlier in his career, walking more than 12% of his opponents, but has improved his command more recently. Takahashi has a career 3.55 ERA, 17.4% strikeout rate, and 9% walk rate in 133 starts. He primarily relies on four pitches: a fastball that sits at around 93-95mph, a splitter, a slider, and a cutter, while occasionally throwing a curveball.
Takahashi called MLB “the world’s greatest peak” and said he was inspired by former teammate and now Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. “Yusei-san changed my baseball career. I want to give back to him by performing at the highest level and even surpassing him,” Takahashi said. He attended Game 4 of the 2022 World Series in Philadelphia and said “The atmosphere was amazing and I thought that I’d love to pitch here [in MLB].”
Despite Takahashi’s wishes, the Lions may not post him this offseason. Lions GM Hisanobu Watanabe said that there are no plans as of right now to post Takahashi. “We’ve just listened to his [Takahashi’s] wishes at this point. We’ve discussed things of that nature with him before, but it’s not a story of when we are going to post him,” Watanabe said. The right-hander wants to be posted in the near future since the earliest he can earn his overseas free-agent rights is 2026. The good news for Takahashi is that his manager is former New York Met Kazuo Matsui, who is open-minded about the possible move. “If he reaches another level as an ace, he might get closer to that goal,” Matsui said.
Takahashi is doing his best to reach that next level, with a 0.39 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 23 innings pitched in his three starts. He has not given up a run in 18 consecutive innings.
5. Naoyuki Uwasawa
Naoyuki Uwasawa is a 29-year-old right-handed starter for the Nippon Ham Fighters who has a 3.29 ERA, 19.9% strikeout rate, and 8% walk rate in 148 career starts. The right-hander throws a variety of pitches, including a low-90s fastball, cutter, slider, splitter, knuckle curve, changeup, and a two-seam fastball (usage in that order). His four-seam fastball was hit hard last season, with opponents batting .272 against it.
Uwasawa announced his desire to pitch in the majors at his contract negotiations last December and requested to be posted in the 2023 offseason. He said that he was inspired when he participated in the 2018 MLB Japan All-Star Series. “I’ve always wondered what it’s like to play in a league with players coming from around the globe, and it’s the type of experience I can’t miss if I have the chance to. I only have a limited amount of time to take on the challenge, so if I have the opportunity I would take it,” Uwasawa said. Uwasawa began working with Driveline last offseason to help prepare his transition to the big leagues, looking to optimize his pitching mechanics and improve the quality of his slider.
Uwasawa has had a poor start to the season, with a 6.46 ERA and 16.9% walk rate through 15 1/3 innings in his three starts.
Younger stars to keep an eye on
The following players are already some of the biggest stars in the NPB, but are likely unavailable until the 2025-26 offseason due to their age.
1. Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami, nicknamed Mura-Kamisama (Mura-God), is a 23-year-old corner infielder for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. He burst onto the scene in 2019, with 36 home runs and 96 RBIs, winning the Central League Rookie of the Year Award in the process. He was the back-to-back Central League MVP in 2021 and 2022. Murakami has a career slash line of .281/.405/.583, hitting 160 homers and driving in 430 runs, along with a .988 OPS and 166 wRC+. Murakami’s 2022 season was nothing short of historic. He batted .318/.458/.710 with 56 home runs and 134 RBIs, along with a jaw-dropping 1.168 OPS, 221 wRC+ and 10.3 WAR. He became the youngest-ever Triple Crown winner in NPB and set the single season record for home runs hit by a Japanese player.
Murakami’s leap in 2022 can likely be attributed to overcoming hard-thrown fastballs. Hitting high velocities was a weakness early in his career, with batting averages of .088 in 2019, .167 in 2020, and .229 in 2021 against fastballs thrown over 150 km/h (93.75 mph). In 2022, Murakami hit .327 against those pitches. Consistent growth in this area will be essential to Murakami’s success in MLB, where the average velocity is higher than the NPB. Murakami is not necessarily known for his defense at third base. In 2022, he recorded 15 errors, the second-highest in all of NPB and the most among third basemen. If he cannot improve his defense as he did with his contact against higher velocity, he most likely projects to be a first baseman in MLB.
Murakami signed a three-year deal this past offseason that came with a guarantee that he will be posted in the 2025-26 offseason. By 2025, Murakami will be 25 years old and shed his “amateur” status under MLB rules, thus exempting him from the bonus pool system. There is a clause that will allow him to get posted sooner if the age-25 rule is lowered.
Murakami has had a slow start to the season, hitting just .189/.328/.373 with two homers and a 33.3% strikeout rate in a small sample of 66 plate appearances. The good news is that he is walking in 18.2% of plate appearances, and hitting .375 with runners in scoring position.
2. Roki Sasaki
Roki Sasaki is a 21-year-old right-handed starter for the Chiba Lotte Marines, known as “The Monster of Reiwa”, who is entering his fourth season in NPB. Sasaki has been highly scouted since his high school days, throwing 100mph fastballs with ease. He was drafted in 2019 by the Marines, who took a patient approach to his development. The 6’3″ right-hander clearly had an outstanding arsenal, but teams were concerned about his thin frame, in-game stamina, and the repeatability of his mechanics. He did not pitch in 2020 and only started in 11 games and pitched 63 1/3 innings in 2021.
The Marines’ patience paid off, with Sasaki quickly becoming one of the most dominant starters in NPB. In his first full year in the Marines’ rotation, the phenom recorded a 2.20 ERA and 1.70 FIP, striking out 35.3% of hitters while walking just 4.7% in 129 1/3 innings. Sasaki became the 16th pitcher in the history of NPB to pitch a perfect game last April, and followed up the performance by throwing eight more perfect innings in his next outing, before getting pulled with 102 pitches. In the 17 perfect innings, Sasaki struck out 33 of the 51 batters faced. Sasaki has a three-pitch mix, a fastball that averages between 99-101mph and tops out at 104mph, a devastating splitter, and a slider.
As of right now, there is no clear timetable for Sasaki’s jump to Major League Baseball. Sasaki will not hit the professional experience threshold and does not turn 25 years old until 2026, so unless he takes the Ohtani route of posting before age 25, the earliest that Sasaki will make his MLB debut is in 2027. Sasaki said in March that “Before thinking about the timing of moving to the majors, playing in Japan comes first, and I think that things will become more clear after that.”
Sasaki has picked up right where he left off last season and has yet to allow a run in his two starts. Last week, he outdueled Yamamoto and shut down the Buffaloes, only allowing one hit and striking out 11 in seven innings.
Honorable Mentions
The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move:
Kazuma Okamoto, Corner Infielder, Yomiuri Giants; Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Keiji Takahashi, left-handed starting pitcher, Tokyo Yakult Swallows; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons
2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition
Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.
For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.
At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.
There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.
Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.
Position Players
- Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
- Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
- Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
- Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
- Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
- Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
- Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
- Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.
Pitchers
- Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
- Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
- Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
- Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
- Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
- Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
- Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
- Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15 ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
- Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
- Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.
Lack Of Offense Puts Royals In An Early-Season Hole
The Royals entered 2023 in a tricky spot. They’ve already rebuilt but haven’t progressed to the point where the organization and its fanbase had surely envisioned. While Kansas City went into last year as a dark horse pick to hang in the Wild Card mix, they stumbled to a 65-97 record that led to changes at the top of baseball operations and in the manager’s office.
Kansas City had a relatively quiet offseason. They added Jordan Lyles, Ryan Yarbrough and Aroldis Chapman while retaining Zack Greinke, looking for veteran stability on a pitching staff that hasn’t gotten expected contributions from a handful of highly-regarded young arms. The offseason attention on the pitching staff apparently left little room in the budget to attack an offense that ranked 24th in the majors in run scoring.
Franmil Reyes, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Matt Duffy — each of whom broke camp after signing minor league contracts — are the only new faces in the Royals’ position player group. (K.C. also shipped out center fielder Michael A. Taylor to the Twins.) While it’s still very early, the Royals are feeling the effects of that lack of offseason attention to the lineup.
Entering play Tuesday, the Royals sit 28th in the majors in runs scored (54). They’re dead last in all three triple slash stats with a .202/.264/.326 team batting line. Only the Giants have a higher strikeout rate than Kansas City’s 26.5% clip and they’re 25th in walk percentage. With that kind of offense, it’s not a surprise the Royals have been outscored by 32 runs and limped to a 4-13 start.
As one would expect given the extent of their struggles, the Royals aren’t getting much production virtually anywhere in the lineup. Duffy has been solid in a limited role. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino has been excellent and is somewhat quietly making a case for himself as one of the sport’s best young hitters. Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has been adequate. Beyond that trio, the offense has been almost completely unproductive.
Ten of the 13 Kansas City hitters with 20+ plate appearances are off to below-average starts. The second base/third base duo of Michael Massey and Hunter Dozier hasn’t hit. Things have arguably been even more worrisome on the grass. Royals’ outfielders are hitting .178/.241/.256 over 195 combined trips to the dish. That’s the worst output in the league by a wide margin; the second-worst start by an outfield, by measure of wRC+, is the .207/.263/.337 production from the Diamondbacks’ group.
Outfield was a major question mark for K.C. heading into the year. It’s a group comprised mainly of players in their mid-20s who haven’t yet established themselves at the MLB level. Catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez has power but questions about his swing-and-miss and his best defensive fit. Edward Olivares has paired interesting physical tools with an aggressive approach resulting in a meager .302 career on-base percentage. It’s a similar story with Kyle Isbel, who has been productive in the upper minors but not yet translated that against big league pitching. Nate Eaton had a big 2022 season in Triple-A; he’s already 26 and was never an especially highly-regarded prospect though.
Drew Waters, who has been on the shelf all season with a left oblique strain, has power and an excellent defensive profile but concerns about his strikeout totals. Bradley and Reyes have been very good MLB players in the past but fallen on hard times offensively in the last couple seasons.
It’s too early in the season to write off any specific player, particularly the younger options who have gotten scattershot playing time over the past couple years. As a collective, however, it’s an unencouraging start. Even if someone like Melendez or Olivares takes a step forward, the overall outfield looks like a below-average group. Perhaps 2022 first-round pick Gavin Cross can solidify a spot in the long run, but the Virginia Tech product is still in High-A and looks unlikely to be an MLB factor this year.
The Royals’ offense assuredly won’t be this bad all season. Salvador Perez is going to snap out of an early-season rut. Witt should post a better line than his current .262/.314/.415 mark. There’s essentially nowhere for the outfield to go but up. Yet even with some amount of forthcoming positive regression, it’s hard to see the Royals climbing back towards competitiveness. They entered the season as a projected bottom five to ten team at FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. They’ve promptly dug themselves a nine-game hole just to get back to .500. Despite playing in one of the game’s weaker divisions, the Royals are trending towards deadline sellers.
We’re not yet at that point. General manager J.J. Picollo and his front office are unlikely to consider any serious roster subtractions before late June at the earliest. Barring a dramatic reversal of fortunes in the next two months, though, there’s likely to be a fair amount of deadline chatter about possible trade candidates on the K.C. roster. Closer Scott Barlow is off to a rough start but would draw plenty of interest if he can rediscover his 2021-22 form, particularly with an extra season of arbitration control. The Chapman signing has looked good in the first couple weeks, as the fireballing lefty has punched out 12 of 22 opposing hitters. He’s an obvious midseason trade candidate as a one-year free agent pickup. Starter Brad Keller and lefty reliever Amir Garrett are impending free agents off to decent starts.
The coming months will determine how many of those players change uniforms midseason. The club’s lack of hitting through the year’s first three weeks has put them behind the eight ball if they’re to avoid trading veterans who are getting closer to the open market.
Revisiting A Win-Win Trade Between The Brewers And Rays
It’s generally rare for a significant trade to happen in the first few months of a season. Teams have just finished a winter of assembling their rosters for the campaign and don’t give up and start selling so early. Some teams dealing with injuries might want upgrades, but it’s not the time of year to send out a top prospect just to patch a temporary hole in the lineup or rotation. Front offices these days seem to like to push whatever time limits they have, saving their moves until the last moments before the trade deadline, non-tender deadline or what have you.
But there are exceptions, including one prominent one that occurred just shy of two years ago. In May of 2021, the Rays sent shortstop Willy Adames and right-hander Trevor Richards to the Brewers in exchange for righties J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. The trade was rare not only because of the timing, but the significance. Three of the players involved were relief pitchers, but Adames was established as a solid everyday shortstop who still had three-plus years of control. Trades of such players are rare at any time and especially so at at that part of the season.
What’s also of note is that both teams were in contention. The Rays had made the postseason in the two previous years, going to the World Series in 2020. They were 27-19 when this deal was struck, just a game behind the Red Sox in the AL East. The Brewers had made the playoffs three straight years and were struggling a bit in early 2021, but their 21-23 record still had them in the mix, four games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central.
There were a few stars that aligned to make this happen. On the Rays’ end, they had a middle infield surplus that was inevitably going to lead to some kind of move. Wander Franco was the top prospect in the game and on a path to take that shortstop job from Adames. Franco was at High-A in 2019 but jumped to Triple-A in 2021 after the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in between. At the time of the deal, Franco was hitting .283/.333/.533 for a wRC+ of 126. The Rays had other prospects of note, Taylor Walls and Vidal Bruján, in line for middle infield jobs. Walls actually got called up in the immediate aftermath of the Adames deal, but Franco was up a month later.
On the Brewers’ end, they were in a bit of a bind at shortstop. They had Orlando Arcia at the position for many years but decided it was time to move on. His defensive marks were okay but he had a career batting line of .244/.295/.366 at the end of 2020 for a wRC+ of 71. They opened the season by moving infielder Luis Urías to short, but that went sideways pretty quickly. He had already made nine errors in the first few weeks of the season and wasn’t hitting much either.
Those factors all contributed to bring this rare trade to fruition, which was since gone well for both clubs. Adames fortified the shortstop position immediately and has been a fixture there since. He was out to a slow start at the time of the trade, hitting .197/.254/.371 as a Ray, but he hit 20 home runs for the Brewers in the remainder of the 2021 campaign and produced a batting line of .285/.366/.521 in that time for a wRC+ of 136.
The Brewers ended up winning the division by finishing with a record of 95-67, five games up on the Cards. They just missed the playoffs last year, but that was no fault of Adames. He hit 31 home runs and slashed .238/.298/.458 for a wRC+ of 109. His speed and defense helped him tally 4.6 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, tying Corbin Burnes for the team lead. He’s still with the club this year and can be retained via arbitration for 2024.
As for Richards, he was only with the club for about six weeks, getting flipped to the Blue Jays in July alongside Bowden Francis, with first baseman Rowdy Tellez coming the other way. Tellez has also been a key contributor for the Brewers, tallying 35 home runs last year and hitting .219/.306/.461 for a wRC+ of 110. Though that was very similar production to Adames at the plate, he doesn’t provide nearly as much in terms of speed or defense, leading to lesser tally of 0.8 fWAR on the year.
From the Rays’ point of view, they got more than just a few relievers, as they almost immediately started stretching Rasmussen out into a larger workload. Three of his first five outings as a Ray were of the single-inning variety, but he ramped up as the campaign went along. He eventually made 10 starts on the year, including eight to finish the season. And these weren’t just as an opener in the Tampa style. Those eight starts to end the year were all at least four innings long, with Rasmussen completing five innings in five of them.
This was a surprising development as it seemed like Rasmussen’s starting days were over, mainly due to health concerns. He had required Tommy John surgery in college in 2016, but was still drafted by the Rays in the first round, 31st overall, in 2017. They didn’t end up signing him due to concerns over that elbow, so he returned to Oregon State but needed a second TJS in August of 2017.
Despite those two surgeries, the Brewers grabbed him in the sixth round of the 2018 draft. He returned to the mound in the minors the following year, pitching mostly as a starter but logging just 74 1/3 innings. In 2020, with the minor leagues wiped out by the pandemic, Rasmussen was pitching out of the bullpen with the big league club. He tossed 15 1/3 innings over 12 appearances, posting a lackluster 5.87 ERA. He continued in that relief role early in 2021, logging 17 innings over 15 appearances with the Brewers with a 4.24 ERA.
It seems the Rays hadn’t given up on the pitcher they liked so much that they used a first-round pick on just a few years prior. They nabbed him in the Adames deal and, as mentioned, stretched him out as the season wore on. With pitchers like Tyler Glasnow and Chris Archer on the injured list and alternatives like Michael Wacha, Josh Fleming and Ryan Yarbrough posting middling results, the rotation was in need of some help. Rasmussen eventually tossed 59 innings for Tampa that year over 10 starts and 10 relief appearances. He posted a 2.44 ERA, striking out 20.9% of batters faced, walking 5.7% and getting grounders at a 51.5% clip. The Rays finished 100-62 that year, eight games ahead of the Red Sox and Yankees for the division crown, though Boston would eliminate Tampa in the ALDS.
It would have been fair to wonder at that time if Rasmussen’s success with the Rays was sustainable. It was still a small sample and his total workload in the three years since his second Tommy John procedure was light, 177 innings between the majors and minors over the 2019-2021 period. But last year, he pushed those doubts aside, tossing 146 innings over 28 starts. His 2.84 ERA came with a 21.4% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 46.6% ground ball rate. He’s looked sharp through three starts here this year as well, currently sporting a 2.60 ERA with his strikeout rate up to 29.2% in the early going. He won’t reach arbitration until after this season and can be controlled for three more seasons beyond that.
Feyereisen was no slouch himself. He posted a 2.45 ERA for the Rays after the deal and then tossed 24 1/3 innings last year without allowing a single earned run. Unfortunately, he landed on the injured list in early June and wasn’t able to return, eventually undergoing shoulder surgery in December. The recovery from that procedure required a four-month shutdown period, which meant the club would be without him for the start of the 2023 campaign. He was still under club control through 2026, but the Rays were dealing with a roster crunch and designated Feyereisen for assignment shortly after that surgery, with a deal seemingly already in the works at that time. He was dealt to the Dodgers the next day in exchange for minor league lefty Jeff Belge, who posted a 3.66 ERA in High-A for the Dodgers last year. He’s started his Rays tenure with three scoreless outings in Double-A this year.
In the end, the Brewers shipped out some talented pitchers who weren’t the most essential arms on their roster. Even without Rasmussen and Feyereisen, they’ve still had excellent pitching from Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and others. In exchange, they received an excellent everyday shortstop and, indirectly, a potent bat in Tellez. The Rays parted with that excellent shortstop, but replaced him easily from within and were able to bolster their rotation and overall pitching depth.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Checking In On The Rays’ Left-Handed Bats
Back in October, just after the Rays had been bounced from the postseason, president of baseball operations Erik Neander gave a press conference and outlined some goals for the offseason. One area targeted for improvement was the club’s performance against right-handed pitching. As a whole, the team hit .234/.305/.373 against righties, leading to a 99 wRC+ that indicates they were just a hair below average.
“I don’t think it’s in us to just stand pat and assume things will get better,” Neander said at that time. Cut to April and the club apparently decided that the standing pat thing wasn’t such a bad idea after all. They made no moves this offseason to add to their lineup. In fact, they subtracted from it, as players like Kevin Kiermaier, Ji Man Choi and Miles Mastrobuoni are now on different teams. Aside from signing Zach Eflin, all the club’s offseason additions were minor leaguers, with most of those being pitchers.
The MLB offseason was generally considered to be on the robust side, with many contracts going well beyond predictions, especially for the top free agents. It’s possible that the low-spending Rays simply got priced out of whatever plans they initially drew up for the winter. Whatever the reasons, the club didn’t bring in anyone from outside the organization and is relying on internal options, at least for now. The season is still young but the early results are encouraging, as the club is 14-2 and hitting a collective .276/.364/.544 against righties for a 155 wRC+ so far. Let’s dig in on the players individually.
In the first few years of his career, Lowe had established himself as one of the key members of the Tampa lineup. He hit 14 home runs in the shortened 2020 season and added 39 more the next year. Over those two seasons combined, he hit .253/.346/.532 for a wRC+ of 141.
Unfortunately, he was hobbled in the health department last year. He made trips to the injured list due to lower back issues and a triceps contusion. He only got into 65 games and produced a diminished .221/.308/.383 slash line when on the field for a 104 wRC+. Early indications suggest that Lowe has put those injuries behind him, as he is off to a great start. He has five home runs in his first 14 games and is currently batting .310/.442/.690 for a 215 wRC+.
Franco’s arc is fairly similar to Lowe’s. His track record in the majors isn’t as long, but he was considered the top prospect in the sport for quite a while and then performed well in 2021 while only 20 years old. But the switch-hitter was also snakebitten in 2022, making trips to the IL due to a quad strain and wrist discomfort. He only got into 83 games and hit .277/.328/.417 for a wRC+ of 116, still above average but not elite. But like Lowe, he seems to be healthy and in a good groove here this year. He already has four long balls and is batting .318/.366/.621 for a wRC+ of 176.
The switch-hitting Walls has always hit well in the minors but hasn’t been able to translate it to the majors. Coming into this year, his career batting line was .182/.281/.288. He’s off to a strong start here in 2023 though, batting .281/.378/.469 through 37 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 144.
Mejía isn’t off to the same blazing start as some of his teammates. The switch-hitting catcher is batting just .167/.276/.208 through his first 29 plate appearances. He and Christian Bethancourt have been splitting the catching duties fairly evenly so far, but the right-handed-hitting Bethancourt is performing much better at the plate and could increase his share as the season goes along.
Acquired from the Dodgers in a trade just prior to the 2022 season, Raley got into 22 games with the Rays last year but hit just .197/.306/.279. He’s still striking out at a 31% clip in 2023 but has hit three homers in just 13 games, leading to a .222/.310/.528 slash line and 131 wRC+.
Lowe has long been one of the club’s highly-touted prospects, having been selected 13th overall in 2016 and performing well in the minors. He got a two-game cameo in the big leagues in 2021 but struggled in his first meaningful taste of the majors. He hit .221/.284/.343 last year and struck out in 33.3% of his trips to the plate. He’s been far superior this season, cutting that strikeout rate in half to 16.7% and hitting three home runs in just 12 games. His current batting line of .359/.405/.718 amounts to a wRC+ 213.
Long one of the club’s most significant prospects, Bruján has struggled badly against major league pitching. He had a batting line of .150/.207/.231 over 62 games coming into this year. The club was granted a fourth option for him, allowing them to send him to the minors on Opening Day, but he was called up when Jose Siri landed on the injured list. Bruján is hitting .333/.333/.333 through 15 plate appearances but has six strikeouts (a 40% rate) in that tiny sample.
Aranda got to make his MLB debut last year but didn’t crack the Opening Day roster here in 2023. He’s off to a nice start in Triple-A, hitting a couple of home runs for the Durham Bulls and drawing walks in a massive 24% of his 50 plate appearances. His current batting line is .250/.440/.444 for a 136 wRC+.
Manzardo isn’t yet on the 40-man roster but is one of the club’s top prospects and is playing in Triple-A, meaning a debut at some point this year is on the table. He has three home runs and a 10.4% walk rate for the Bulls so far this year, leading to a .262/.333/.548 batting line and 115 wRC+ through 12 games.
Jones is on the 40-man roster but he’s in Double-A and therefore not likely to be at the front of the line for a call-up. He’s also not forcing the issue right now, hitting .167/.189/.417 through eight games for the Montgomery Biscuits.
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All of these numbers come with small sample warnings, as the Rays have only played 16 games thus far. Also, the strength of their competition has been fairly weak, as their 13-game winning streak to start the season came against the Tigers, Nationals, Athletics and Red Sox. When they finally faced a team that’s generally considered to be a contender by squaring off against the Blue Jays this past weekend, they went 1-2.
The fact that they demolished the pitching of rebuilding clubs like the Nats and A’s doesn’t mean that we can declare the situation resolved, but it’s encouraging nonetheless. Franco and Brandon Lowe aren’t likely to sustain these torrid streaks, but it’s a good sign that they are healthy and are making the 2022 struggles seem like temporary injury setbacks. Walls can’t suddenly be declared a superstar, but he’s considered a strong defender and any offense he can provide is a nice bonus. We also can’t say that Raley and Josh Lowe have cemented themselves as successful big league hitters, but they’ve shown tremendous promise in the minors and could be getting acclimated to big league pitching. Lowe’s much-improved strikeout rate is especially positive.
As the season goes along and the Rays face stronger competition, it’s entirely possible that this picture looks less glowing. However, the games all count the same and they already have 14 wins in the bank, which makes it highly likely they stay in contention up until the trade deadline. If they need to upgrade on any of the hitters in this group, they have a very strong farm system and should be able to bolster their left-handed options by making a deal or two. But if even one or two of these early developments start to seem more real, their urgency to do so will be lessened.
Big Hype Prospects: Neto, House, Kjerstad, Bibee, Pages
This week on Big Hype Prospects, we take stock of the latest early-season top performers. Please note, BHP will return after a three-week hiatus.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Zach Neto, 22, SS, LAA (MLB)
(AA) 34 PA, 3 HR, 3 SB, .444/.559/.815
The Angels recently called up Neto in an attempt to improve their shortstop situation. The 2022 draftee skipped Triple-A and only has 201 minor league plate appearances to his name. He’s shown a BABIP-forward hitting approach predicated on ground ball contact. While he can hit for power, there’s reason to question his ability to consistently elevate the ball. Should he remain in the Majors, it’s possible he’ll look overmatched this season. Nothing he does is particularly smooth or easy. His swing is high effort, and his fielding footwork runs counter to the economical mechanics we’re accustomed to seeing. He entered play Monday 0-for-8 with two strikeouts through his first two big league games.
Brady House, 19, 3B, WSH (A)
24 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .333/.500/.833
Considered one of the most powerful prospects in the minors, House has controlled the strike zone well through an Alfonseca-handful of games. Four of his six hits have gone for extra bases. His 2022 campaign was a tale of two seasons. He handled A-ball pitchers early in the season before injuring his back. When he returned, he limped through the remainder of the campaign. At this rate, he’ll find himself in High-A within a few weeks. Public scouting reports tend to focus on whether or not House will achieve enough contact to get to his prodigious power. Opinions remain mixed.
Heston Kjerstad, 24, OF, BAL (AA)
42 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, .314/.429/.800
A former second-overall pick – the sort selected in order to save money to spend on later rounds – Kjerstad entered the 2022 Arizona Fall League in desperate need of proving himself. He was named AFL MVP and has continued to show well this season. The early returns are offset by a career-worst swinging strike rate. As yet, it hasn’t been a problem. Due to a health scare, major hamstring injury, and the lost COVID minor league season, Kjerstad has missed a lot of development time. He’s already a tad on the old side for Double-A. We should see him advance to Triple-A within the next couple months. In the last half-season, he’s morphed into a high-probability big leaguer. Now the question is whether he’s a regular or mashtastic, strong-side platoon bat.
Tanner Bibee, 24, SP, CLE (AAA)
11 IP, 12.27 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 0.00 ERA
A fly-ball pitcher known for missing bats and limiting walks, Bibee’s first two turns in Triple-A have gone about as well as possible. Of 41 batters faced, he’s allowed five hits and three walks compared to 15 strikeouts. He’s considered both highly polished and Major League-ready by two evaluators I surveyed. Health allowing, we’ll see him in Cleveland sometime this season. His fastball and slider are his primary weapons. He commands them well and generates plenty of swinging strikes. His curve isn’t expected to improve and will mostly be used for called strikes early in the count when hitters are trying to ambush a high heater. The scouting report available on FanGraphs notes his changeup is still a (promising) work in progress.
Andy Pages, 22, OF, LAD (AA)
41 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .393/.561/.750
The Dodgers made the curious decision to return Pages to Double-A after he hammered 26 home runs in 571 plate appearances last season – possibly because he managed a modest 102 wRC+. He’s angling for a quick promotion. In addition to the heady results, he has more walks than strikeouts and a 6.4 percent swinging-strike rate. We’re dealing with a tiny sample, but there’s cause for optimism. He’s always been an extreme pulled, fly-ball hitter. The profile led naysayers (myself included) to consider him a future second-division player. While he continues to pull the ball (at a comical 68.2 percent rate), his fly-ball rate has dropped to a normal 40.9 percent. He’s yet to hit an infield fly. Inching down his launch angle even a little could help to explain the surge in contact rate and also lead to more consistently positive results. For now, this is a developing story to watch. I have no intel on him purposely adjusting his swing. This is merely an observation of his small sample statistical outcomes.
Three More
Emmet Sheehan, LAD (23): One of the best pitching prospects to appear in the 2022 AFL, Sheehan has tasty stuff and poor command. He’s credited with a feel for making adjustments, leading internal evaluators to frequently praise his work. The Dodgers appear to be managing his workload in the early going.
Gage Workman, DET (23): Workman has… worked… to improve his swing decisions as a professional, manifesting in early success this season. He’s also trimmed his swinging-strike rate to a tolerable 12.3 percent. Questions regarding his hit tool – he ran a 40 percent strikeout rate last season – have most observers assuming he’ll top out as a toolsy utility guy. If he’s drawing free passes and cutting down on whiffs, he could turn into a Chris Taylor-like talent.
Andrew Abbott, CIN (23): Abbott’s early results are noteworthy (0.00 ERA, 71.4 K%, 2.9 BB%). Scouts tend to downplay his potential due to a long history of command issues and inconsistent mechanics. Solving the mechanics could lead to rapidly improving command. His fastball and curve work well together, suggesting a floor as an innings-eating middle reliever.
List Of Players On Track For 10-And-5 Rights
In baseball parlance, players are often said to have “10-and-5 rights” or the player might be described as a “10-and-5 guy.” Any player who has 10 or more years of service time and has been with his current club for five or more consecutive years gets veto power over any trade involving them. This essentially functions the same as a no-trade clause, which players can negotiate into their contracts. But with 10-and-5 rights, the right is gained automatically once the conditions are met. There is often overlap, as players that have no-trade clauses will eventually earn 10-and-5 rights as well, which makes it a moot point in those cases.
A player’s status as a 10-and-5 player can impact trade negotiations, as players like Adam Jones and Brandon Phillips have used it blocked trades in the past. Also, a team may sometimes trade a player on the cusp of reaching 10-and-5 status, since it becomes harder to line up a deal once the player has that veto power. The Rays traded Evan Longoria to the Giants in the 2017-2018 offseason, when his service time was at nine years and 170 days, meaning he would have earned 10-and-5 rights just two days into the 2018 campaign.
Listed below are the players who currently have 10-and-5 rights, as well as those who are approaching that mark. For instances where service time is mentioned, keep in mind that an MLB season has 187 days but a player’s service time “year” flips over at 172.
Currently Have 10-and-5 Rights
- Jose Altuve, Astros
Altuve has over 11 years of service time and has spent it all with the Astros. It’s a fairly moot point as his current deal, which runs through 2024, contains a full no-trade clause. The club is also more likely to give him another extension than trade him.
- Charlie Blackmon, Rockies
Blackmon has over 10 years of service time and all of it with the Rockies. He triggered a player option for 2023, after which he will be a free agent.
- Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
Cabrera will reach 20 years of service this year and has been with the Tigers since 2008. He is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, with a couple of vesting options that aren’t a factor since he needs to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting the year prior in order to trigger them. He’s been fairly open about how he’s quite likely to retire at the end of the current season.
- Brandon Crawford, Giants
Crawford has over 11 years of service, all of it with the Giants. He’s slated for free agency at the end of this season.
- Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Kershaw has over 14 years of experience at this point, all of it with the Dodgers. A trade wouldn’t seem plausible anyway, as he and the club seem to have a nice relationship with each other. He’s re-signed on one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons, seemingly keeping the door open to retirement whenever he decides it’s time.
- Salvador Perez, Royals
Perez has spent his entire career with the Royals, which has pushed him past the 11-year mark in terms of service time. His current deal runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026.
- Chris Sale, Red Sox
Sale has gone beyond the 12-year service time mark and is now in his sixth season with the Red Sox. The extension he signed with the club in March of 2019 gave him a full no-trade clause in the middle of the 2020 campaign. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate if the Sox fall out of contention this year, though Sale would have to approve such a deal. His current contract runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025.
- Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees
Stanton has over 12 years in the big leagues now and is in his sixth campaign as a Yankee. His deal runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.
- Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Strasburg has beyond 12 years of service right now, all of it with the Nationals. The club’s deal with the right-hander after their 2019 World Series victory went south immediately, as he’s tossed just over 30 innings since then and doesn’t seem near any kind of return. That contract has a full no-trade clause and runs through 2026.
- Mike Trout, Angels
Trout has more than 11 years of service and all of it with the Angels. He already had full no-trade protection from his current contract, which runs through 2030. Some have speculated that the club could look to move Trout and do a full rebuild if Shohei Ohtani departs in free agency after this year. If the Angels ever did consider such a plan, Trout would have to be okay with the destination.
- Joey Votto, Reds
Votto is over 15 years of service at this point, all of it with the Reds. He’s had full no-trade protection since signing his ten-year extension in April of 2012. That deal is now in its final guaranteed year, with the club having a $20MM option for 2024 that comes with a $7MM buyout.
- Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
Wainwright has over 17 years of major league service time, all of that with the Cardinals. He re-signed with the club for 2023 and has full no-trade protection from that deal. He is planning to retire after this season.
Will Gain 10-and-5 Rights This Year
- Patrick Corbin, Nationals
Corbin already has over 10 years of service time and is currently in his fifth season with the Nationals. His six-year deal, which runs through 2024, contains partial no-trade protection but he will have 10-and-5 rights at the end of the 2023 campaign. The Nats would probably love to move him but he’s been getting worse in each year of the deal, with his ERA climbing from 3.25 in the first season to 4.66, 5.82 and 6.31, with his 2023 mark currently at 7.71. The backloaded deal will pay him $24MM this year and $35MM next year, meaning he would need a spectacular turnaround in order to have any trade appeal at all.
- Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals
Goldschmidt has over 11 years of service time but only came over to the Cardinals for the 2019 season, making this his fifth year with the club. It’s a moot point since Goldy got a full no-trade in his most recent extension, which runs through 2024.
- Bryce Harper, Phillies
Harper has over 10 years of service already and is in his fifth season with the Phillies. His 13-year deal comes with full no-trade protection anyway, and it’s not like the Phils have any interest in trading him. The deal goes through 2031.
- Aaron Hicks, Yankees
Hicks has been with the Yankees since 2016 and came into this season with his service time at 9.041. That means he’s slated to have 10-and-5 rights in August, just after the trade deadline. The extension he signed with the club in 2019 did not have any no-trade protection, though Hicks would get a $1MM assignment bonus if he were traded. He’s perhaps the most notable player on this list, given that he actually seemed like a viable trade candidate in the most recent offseason, though no deal has come together as of yet. His contract pays him $10.5MM this year and then $9.5MM in the next two years with a $12.5MM club option for 2026 with a $1MM buyout. If the Yanks want to get this deal off the books, they should probably do it in the next few months. Then again, Hicks has been pretty open about his frustrations with his reduced role of late, speaking to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic about it recently. Perhaps he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery that results in more playing time.
- DJ LeMahieu, Yankees
LeMahieu has already surpassed the 10-year service time mark and is in his fifth campaign as a Yankee. His current deal, which runs through 2026, affords him full no-trade protection already.
- Manny Machado, Padres
Machado has over 10 years of service and is in his fifth campaign as a Padre. He already has full no-trade via his contract, which runs through 2033.
- Ryan Pressly, Astros
Pressly has been with the Astros since July of 2018, meaning he’ll reach five years with the club this summer. He also came into the year with his service time at 9.039, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in August. Pressly has emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball during his time in Houston and has twice agreed to an extension with the club, so a trade doesn’t seem especially likely. His current deal goes through 2024 with a vesting option for 2025.
- Christian Yelich, Brewers
Yelich is in his sixth season as a Brewer and will get to 10 years of service this season, but it’s a moot point since he has a full no-trade clause in his extension, which runs through 2028 with a mutual option for 2029.
Could Gain 10-and-5 Under Current Contract
- Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
Acuna came into this season with just under five years of service time, meaning he won’t get to the 10-year mark until early in the 2028 season. His extension runs through 2026 with two club options. He’s one of the best players in the league and is underpaid on his deal, so Atlanta won’t be looking to deal him unless they fall way out of contention between now and then.
- Ozzie Albies, Braves
Albies has over five years of service and will get to 10 years in 2027. His extension goes through 2025 with a pair of club options. Similar to Acuna, he’s an excellent player who is on a club-friendly deal, meaning he won’t be a trade candidate unless something horrible happens to the team’s long-term fortunes.
- Nolan Arenado, Cardinals
Arenado will cross ten years of service here in 2023 but it’s only his third season as a Cardinal, meaning he’ll have 10-and-5 status after the 2025 season. That’s mostly just a footnote though, since Arenado’s extension with the Rockies came will full no-trade protection, which he waived to become a Cardinal. He seems quite content in St. Louis and chose not to opt-out of his deal at the end of 2022, even though he could have likely got more money on the open market.
- Javier Báez, Tigers
Báez came into this season with his service at 7.089, meaning he’ll get to 10 years about halfway into the 2025 season. This is just his second year as a Tiger, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2026, when he will have one year left on his six-year deal. That contract affords Báez limited no-trade protection, which allows him to block trades to 10 teams each year, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Báez can also opt out after this year, though that doesn’t seem to be a strong possibility based on his performance as a Tiger thus far.
- José Berríos, Blue Jays
Berríos comes into this season with his service time at 6.044, which puts him in line to get to 10 years late in the 2026 season. He’ll also get to five years with the Blue Jays at the end of July in that year, since he was acquired from the Twins at the deadline in 2021. His extension, which runs through 2028, affords him an opt-out after that 2026 season and gives him an eight-team no-trade list, per Gregor Chisholm of The Toronto Star.
- Mookie Betts, Dodgers
Betts has a service count of 8.070, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in the middle parts of next year. He’s been with the Dodgers since 2020, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 at the end of the 2024 season. Given his excellent production on a consistent competitor like the Dodgers, he doesn’t stand out as a trade candidate anyway, unless something changes drastically. His extension runs through 2032.
- Xander Bogaerts, Padres
Bogaerts only just joined the Padres, but his 11-year deal means he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy after 2027. That doesn’t really matter since he has a full no-trade clause on his deal anyway, making it likely he’s a Padre through 2033.
- Kris Bryant, Rockies
Bryant is in just his second campaign as a Rockie but will be a 10-and-5 guy after 2026. He already has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which runs through 2028.
- Byron Buxton, Twins
Buxton already has a full no-trade clause on the extension he and the Twins signed in November of 2021. He has between six and seven years of service time and will pass 10 years in 2026, with his deal running through 2028.
- Luis Castillo, Mariners
Castillo came into this season with his service time at 5.101, putting him in line to get to 10 years a couple of months into 2027. He’ll also get to the five-year mark with the Mariners midway through that season, having been acquired in July of 2022. His contract runs through 2027 with a vesting/club option for 2028. He has full no-trade protection on that deal but only for the first three years, which starts this year. That means his ability to block a trade will be gone at the end of the 2025 season but return in late July 2027.
- Gerrit Cole, Yankees
Cole will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Yankee until the end of 2024. It’s a moot point anyway since his contract, which runs through 2028, gives him full no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2024 but the team can void that by triggering a club option for 2029.
- Willson Contreras, Cardinals
Contreras has over six years of service time and will pass the 10-year mark in 2026. Since he just signed with the Cardinals, he won’t have five years with the club until the end of 2027. That will be the last guaranteed season of the five-year deal, though there’s a club option for 2028.
- Carlos Correa, Twins
Correa will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Twin until after 2026. His 10-and-5 status is a footnote anyway, since he has a full no-trade clause already.
- Jake Cronenworth, Padres
Cronenworth has been with the Padres since the start of 2020, meaning he came into this year with exactly three years of service time. He won’t get to 10 years until the end of the 2029 campaign but he just signed an extension with the club that runs through 2030. He has an eight-team no-trade clause on that deal.
- Yu Darvish, Padres
Darvish has over 11 years of service time now but won’t have five years as a Padre until after 2025. He recently signed an extension that runs through 2028, which affords him full no-trade protection.
- Jacob deGrom, Rangers
deGrom only just joined the Rangers on a five-year deal, though there’s a conditional option for 2028. It’s a moot point anyway since he already has a full no-trade clause in the deal.
- Rafael Devers, Red Sox
Devers came into this season with his service clock at 5.070, meaning he’ll get to the 10-year mark midway through 2027. His extension, which runs through 2033, does not give him any no-trade rights. It seems unlikely that the Sox would try to move Devers, since he seemed to be the one superstar they were intent on keeping while trading Betts and letting Bogaerts get away. But if something changes years down the road and they start considering a Devers deal, it would get harder after his 10-and-5 rights kick in.
- Edwin Díaz, Mets
Despite being on the injured list and likely to miss all of 2023, this will be the fifth season as a Met for Diaz. He’ll get to 10 years of service in 2026 but has full no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2027 with an option for 2028. He can opt out after 2025.
- Wilmer Flores, Giants
Flores will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Giant until after 2024. That’s the last guaranteed year of his extension, but there’s a dual option for 2025. Flores will have a $3.5MM player option and, if he declines, the club will have a $8.5MM option.
- Kyle Freeland, Rockies
Freeland came into this year with a service count of 5.144, meaning he’ll get to 10 years early in 2027. His extension is only guaranteed through 2026, though there’s a $17MM player option for 2027, which is contingent on Freeland tossing 170 innings in 2026. The Rockies rarely trade their core players even when it’s fairly logical to do so, but it’s possible this could become noteworthy as the contract winds down.
- Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
Freeman already has over 12 years of service time but is in just his second season as a Dodger. He’ll have 10-and-5 rights after 2026, when his deal will have one year and $27MM remaining on it.
- Wander Franco, Rays
Franco came into 2023 with his service time at just 1.104, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until midway through 2031. His deal goes through 2032 with a club option for 2023. Most teams wouldn’t give much thought to trading a face-of-the-franchise player like Franco, but the Rays are always frugal and already went down this road once. As mentioned up top, they dealt Longoria just as his 10-and-5 rights were about to kick in. Franco doesn’t have any no-trade protection but would get an extra $3MM if he’s ever dealt.
- Andrés Giménez, Guardians
Gimenez has just 2.106 as a service time count, but he just signed an extension that runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030. He’ll cross the 10-year service mark during that 2030 campaign.
- Michael Harris II, Braves
Harris didn’t even play a full season last year but was awarded a full year of service time anyway by winning Rookie of the Year. He signed an eight-year extension with the club that runs through 2030 with a couple of club options after that. He’ll be a 10-and-5 guy at the end of the 2031 campaign if the first of those options is triggered.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates
Hayes comes into 2023 with his service clock at 2.075, putting him on a path to reach 10 years during the 2030 campaign. His deal with the Pirates is only guaranteed through 2029 but there’s a club option for 2030.
- Kyle Hendricks, Cubs
Hendricks had a service time count of 8.081 at the start of this season, meaning he’ll get to 10 years midway through 2024. This is the last guaranteed year of his extension, with a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout. Hendricks has struggled in the past two seasons and hasn’t yet pitched this year after suffering a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last year. It seems unlikely that option gets picked up unless he gets healthy and has a tremendous showing in the second half of this year.
- Aaron Judge, Yankees
Judge has a full no-trade clause in his mega-deal with the Yankees, and it’s hard to fathom the club wanting to deal him anyway. He will get to 10 years of service time in 2026.
- Francisco Lindor, Mets
Lindor started this year with a service count of 7.113, meaning he will get to 10 years of service in 2025. That will also be his fifth year as a Met. He currently has a 15-team no-trade clause as part of his extension, which runs through 2031.
- Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks
Marte has been with the Diamondbacks since 2017 and will surpass the 10-year service mark in 2026, with his service clock at 6.162 coming into this year. His extension runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.
- Lance McCullers Jr., Astros
McCullers has spent his entire career as an Astro and will cross the 10-year threshold in 2025, coming into this year with a service tally of 7.140. The extension he signed with the club in 2021 runs through 2026 and has limited no-trade protection.
- Ryan McMahon, Rockies
McMahon has been with the Rockies for his entire career with a service tally of 5.006 coming into this year. That puts him on pace to get to 10 years of service in 2027, the final year of the extension he recently signed with the club. He could potentially earn opt-out opportunities after 2025 and 2026 based on MVP voting.
- Sean Murphy, Braves
Murphy came into this year with his service time at 3.029, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until 2029. His recent extension with Atlanta goes through 2028 with a club option for 2029.
- Joe Musgrove, Padres
Musgrove will get to 10 years of service time in 2026, which will be his sixth as a Padre. His extension, which runs through 2027, gives him a full no-trade clause through 2026. He only has limited no-trade protection in 2027 but he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy by then.
- Brandon Nimmo, Mets
Nimmo has been a Met for his entire career and will get to the 10-year service mark in 2026, but he has a full no-trade clause on his contract anyway.
- Matt Olson, Braves
Olson has a service tally of just 5.103 and isn’t slated to cross the 10-year mark until 2027. His extension with Atlanta runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030.
- Marcell Ozuna, Braves
Ozuna came into this season with his service clock at 9.124, meaning he’ll be at 10 years in May. However, this is just his fourth year with Atlanta, meaning he won’t be a 10-and-5 guy until after 2024. That’s the final guaranteed year of his deal, though there is a $16MM club option for 2025. It’s highly unlikely he’s still with the club at that time, since this deal is generally considered to be underwater both due to his poor performance and off-field issues. It’s already been speculated that the club may release him before the deal is finished, making it hard to envision a trade or the option eventually being picked up.
- José Ramírez, Guardians
Ramírez has spent his entire career with Cleveland and will get to 10 years of service in 2024. It’s a moot point as his extension, which runs through 2028, has a full no-trade clause.
- J.T. Realmuto, Phillies
Realmuto is currently in his fifth year with the Phillies and had a service count of 8.038 coming into the year. That puts him on pace for 10-and-5 status towards the end of next year. His deal doesn’t have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $1MM bonus every time he’s dealt. He’s under contract through 2025, which will be his age-34 season.
- Anthony Rendon, Angels
Rendon will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but it’s just his fourth season as an Angel. He’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2024 but already has full no-trade protection on his contract, which runs through 2026.
- Austin Riley, Braves
Riley came into 2023 with a service count of 3.138, which puts him on track to pass 10 years early in 2029. His deal runs through 2032 with a club option for 2033.
- Carlos Rodón, Yankees
Rodón will get to 10 years of service in 2025 and then have five years as a Yankee after 2027, when he’ll have one year left on his six-year deal. The 10-and-5 status will be irrelevant, however, as he already has full no-trade protection.
- Julio Rodríguez, Mariners
J-Rod has just the one year of service time so far but recently signed a convoluted mega-extension that could potentially end up lasting 18 years. He has full no-trade protection as part of that, making his eventual 10-and-5 status moot.
- Keibert Ruiz, Nationals
Ruiz had just 1.064 as a service count coming into this year but recently agreed to a lengthy extension with the Nats that runs through 2030 with two club options after that. He’s currently on pace for 10-and-5 rights in 2031.
- Corey Seager, Rangers
Seager will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Ranger until the end of 2026. He has limited no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2031.
- Marcus Semien, Rangers
Semien will get to 10 years of service in 2024 but won’t have five years in Texas until after 2026. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2028.
- Antonio Senzatela, Rockies
Senzatela came into this year with a service tally of 5.106, putting him on pace to get to 10 years a few months into 2027. His extension with the Rockies is only guaranteed through 2026, but there’s a $14MM club option for 2027.
- George Springer, Blue Jays
Springer will get to 10 years of service early in 2024 but is in just his third season as a Blue Jay right now. His six-year deal runs through 2026 and he’ll get 10-and-5 status after 2025. He currently has an eight-team no-trade clause.
- Trevor Story, Red Sox
Story will get to 10 years of service after 2025 but won’t have five years with Boston until after 2026. His deal, which runs through 2027, does not have any no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2025, but the team can void that by preemptively exercising an option for 2028.
- Dansby Swanson, Cubs
Swanson only just joined the Cubs on a seven-year deal. By the end of 2027, he’ll have five years with the club and be well beyond 10 years of service, though it’s a moot point since he already has full no-trade protection.
- Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres
Tatis has between three and four years of service, putting him on track for 10-and-5 in 2029, but he already has full no-trade protection on his extension which runs through 2034.
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers
Taylor came into this year with a service count of 7.037, putting him on pace to get to 10 years late in the 2025 season. He’s already been with the Dodgers since partway through the 2016 campaign. His contract is guaranteed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He doesn’t currently have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $2MM assignment bonus each time he’s dealt, and a trade would also increase the value of his option.
- Trea Turner, Phillies
Turner just joined the Phillies but will get to 10-and-5 status after 2027. Like many others on the list, that designation doesn’t really matter for him, since his 11-year deal already affords him full no-trade protection.
The Rangers’ Options At Shortstop
The Rangers were dealt one of the more notable early-season injuries. Star shortstop Corey Seager pulled up on a double during Tuesday’s night matchup in Kansas City. He was diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain of his left hamstring. That’ll cost him a month at minimum.
Seager had been off to a .359/.469/.538 start. Texas won’t be able to replace that kind of offense — Seager himself wasn’t going to keep hitting at that rate — but it’s an obviously tough blow for a team that projects as a fringe playoff club.
Manager Bruce Bochy quickly shot down the notion of sliding Marcus Semien over to shortstop (via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). The All-Star infielder has plenty of experience from his time in Oakland, but he’s primarily played second base over the past two-plus seasons. With Seager expected to return at some point during the season’s first half, the Rangers don’t seem keen on disrupting Semien’s rhythm at the keystone only to move him back there a few weeks from now.
Instead, it seems the Rangers will turn to a combination of less proven options to cover the position. Let’s take a look at the candidates.
The Favorites
Smith picked up the first shortstop start last night, plugging right into Seager’s customary No. 2 spot in the lineup versus Royals’ righty Brad Keller. As a left-handed hitter, he could pick up the bulk of the work against right-handed pitching.
A second-round pick of the Yankees in 2019, Smith landed in Texas via the Joey Gallo trade (which’ll come up again shortly). He made his MLB debut last season, appearing in 73 games. Smith struggled through his looks at big league pitching, hitting .197/.307/.249 over 253 trips to the plate. He demonstrated a very patient approach, walking 11.1% of the time while keeping his strikeouts to a lower-than-average 19.8% clip. Yet he didn’t do much when he put the ball in play, only picking up two home runs with a well below-average 28.6% hard-contact percentage.
Smith was much better in Triple-A. He’s been a productive hitter throughout his minor league career. That continued in 2022, when he put up a .290/.395/.466 line with six homers, a 12.6% walk rate and a 20.7% strikeout percentage over 55 contests for the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate in Round Rock. Baseball America’s pre-2022 scouting report on Smith praised his exit velocities in the minor leagues, which he’ll need to carry over more effectively to be a productive MLB hitter.
Durán, a right-handed hitter, also began his career in the Yankees’ system. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2017, he joined Smith as part of the package sent to Texas for Gallo. (Glenn Otto and Trevor Hauver were also included.) Like Smith, Durán made his big league debut last season but didn’t perform well in his first crack, albeit with a different profile.
The 23-year-old Durán hit .236/.277/.365 in 220 MLB plate appearances. He was among the game’s most aggressive hitters, chasing nearly half the pitches he saw outside the strike zone and whiffing at more than 14% of total offerings. Durán walked at a meager 5.5% rate while punching out 24.5% of the time. He did more damage than Smith when he made contact, connecting on five home runs, ten doubles and a triple. However, he’ll need to rein in his approach to keep his on-base percentage at a suitable level.
Durán was better in Triple-A, hitting .283/.316/.531 in 33 games. His strikeout and walk rates there (27.7% and 4.5%, respectively) remained concerning, but he connected on nine long balls. Durán was a highly-regarded prospect — perhaps even more so than Smith — based on his power potential but he’s faced more questions about his swing decisions and ability to handle shortstop defensively. Durán spent most of his time at second base in the minors and played primarily third base at the big league level. He’s yet to log a single major league inning at shortstop, though Bochy named him as an option there after Seager’s injury.
Other Possibilities
There aren’t many alternatives for Texas at the moment. Brad Miller hasn’t regularly played shortstop since 2016. Prospects Luisangel Acuña and Jonathan Ornelas are on the 40-man roster but don’t seem on the radar for an immediate call. The 21-year-old Acuña has barely played above High-A and isn’t likely to play in the majors at all this season. Ornelas, 23 next month, could be a more realistic option for a midseason promotion after hitting .299/.360/.425 with Double-A Frisco last year. He has all of nine games of Triple-A experience, though.
Perhaps the Rangers will look to fortify the depth in the coming weeks. Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons are still unsigned and would have to take a minor league deal if they wish to continue playing. Even then, neither would be ready to step right into a big league lineup. Maybe the Marlins would part with José Iglesias, who’s at Triple-A Jacksonville after signing a non-roster deal in Spring Training. Iglesias can opt out of that contract if he’s not in the majors by May 1; it’s not uncommon for teams to grant players in his position an early release or cash trade if another club is willing to give them an immediate MLB roster spot.
The Rangers aren’t going to make any kind of impact outside acquisition at this time of the year. That’s not necessary with Seager likely returning in late May or early June. Barring a veteran depth pickup, Texas looks set to rely on a pair of young players to man shortstop for the next few weeks.
Rule 5 Draft Update: April 2023
Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — an annual avenue for teams to potentially acquire talent from other organizations whose decision-makers did not place them on the 40-man roster. For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.
A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.
Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.
It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of 15 Rule 5 players and where they stand a couple of weeks into the 2023 season. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.
Currently on a Major League Roster
- Thaddeus Ward, RHP (Nationals, from the Red Sox): Ward was one of Boston’s best prospects a few years back but went the better part of two years without pitching due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and Tommy John surgery in 2021. He impressed in 51 minor league frames in his 2022 return, and many Red Sox fans were irked not to see him protected last November. The Nats selected him with the top pick in the Rule 5, and after a solid spring he’s tossed 5 2/3 innings and allowed three runs on four hits and a couple of walks. Ward is averaging 94.3 mph with his heater and has fanned seven of his 23 opponents (30.4%). The Nats are the exact type of rebuilding team that can afford to carry a player all season even if he struggles, so it’s quite likely that Ward will spend the year in their bullpen — and potentially get a look in the rotation sometime down the road.
- Ryan Noda, 1B/OF (Athletics, from the Dodgers): Like the Nats, the A’s aren’t going anywhere this season, so there’s every incentive for them to give Noda a long audition. The 27-year-old slugger hit .259/.395/.474 in Triple-A last season, and while he fanned in 28.2% of his plate appearances he also walked at a gaudy 16% clip. It’s been more of the same with the A’s. He walked 11 times but fanned on 26 occasions in 69 spring plate appearances. So far in the regular season, he’s belted a pair of homers, drawn seven walks and whiffed a dozen times in 37 A’s plate appearances. The A’s aren’t ones to shy away from a three-true-outcomes skill set, and they’ll see if Noda can do the Jack Cust dance for them moving forward.
- Jose Hernandez, LHP (Pirates, from the Dodgers): A rocky spring didn’t dissuade the Pirates from carrying Hernandez on their Opening Day roster, and so far it seems wise that they looked past that 8.18 Grapefruit League ERA. In 5 1/3 frames, Hernandez has held opponents to one run on five hits and a walk with four strikeouts. He’s averaged 96 mph on his heater. The 25-year-old Hernandez used that power fastball and a sharp slider to fan nearly 30% of his opponents in Double-A last year, and the Bucs are currently trusting him as one of two lefties in Derek Shelton’s bullpen. He’s already picked up his first big league hold.
- Blake Sabol, C/OF (Giants, from the Pirates): Sabol was technically selected by the Reds with the fourth pick in the draft, but Cincinnati and San Francisco had an agreed-upon deal sending Sabol to the Giants for a player to be named later. (Such swaps are common in the Rule 5 Draft.) The 25-year-old Sabol split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A in Pittsburgh, batting a combined .284/.363/.497 with 66 games behind the dish and another 22 in the outfield. A monster spring showing (.348/.475/.630) and an injury to Mitch Haniger set the stage for Sabol to open the season in left field for the Giants. He’s hitting just .194/.265/.290 through his first 10 games and has split time between catcher and outfield pretty evenly. If the Giants feel he can legitimately play both spots, that’s just the type of versatility they crave when constructing their roster.
- Mason Englert, RHP (Tigers, from the Rangers): Englert isn’t a power arm but had a strong showing in the Rangers’ High-A and (briefly) Double-A rotations in 2022, when he pitched to a combined 3.64 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. The Tigers have used him out of the bullpen so far, and the results haven’t been great. He’s surrendered six runs in just 7 1/3 innings, including a trio of long balls. Englert was a 2018 fourth-rounder who’s generally regarded as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter. It’s feasible Detroit could get him a look in a starting role at some point. Englert entered the 2023 season with just 15 1/3 innings above A-ball, so some struggles aren’t exactly surprising.
- Kevin Kelly, RHP (Rays, from the Guardians): In a shocking and unprecedented development, the Rays look like they’ve plucked a pitcher from obscurity and perhaps found a keeper. Small sample caveats abound this time of season, but Kelly has now made four relief appearances of at least two innings (including today’s game) and yielded three runs on eight hits and no walks with seven punchouts. That comes on the heels of a 3.38 ERA and 21-to-6 K/BB ratio in 13 1/3 spring innings. The Guardians have a deep farm system and perennial 40-man crunch, which can lead to players like this going unprotected; Kelly posted a 2.04 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate in 57 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A last year.
- Gus Varland, RHP (Brewers, from the Dodgers): The Brewers looked past Varland’s woeful 5.98 ERA in Double-A across the past two seasons, betting on the right-hander’s raw stuff rather than his results. So far, so good. Varland obliterated opposing hitters in spring training, whiffing a comical 17 of the 35 batters he faced (48.6%). So far during the regular season, he’s allowed a pair of runs on eight hits and two walks with four strikeouts through six innings out of the bullpen. Varland is averaging 95.9 mph on his fastball and has kept 11 of the 22 balls in play against him on the ground.
On the Major League Injured List
- Nic Enright, RHP (Marlins, from the Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergoing treatment and has said he hopes to “use his platform to provide hope and inspiration to others who fight their battle with cancer.” Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
- Noah Song, RHP (Phillies, from the Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
- Wilking Rodriguez, RHP (Cardinals, from the Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez is a remarkable story. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. During his past two seasons in Mexico, he hurled 73 innings with a 2.71 ERA — including 44 2/3 innings of 2.01 ERA ball with a 43.2% strikeout rate there in 2022. The Yankees signed him to a minor league deal in August, but because of his prior minor league experience from 2007-15, he was Rule 5-eligible and selected by the Cardinals. A right shoulder issue has Rodriguez on the 15-day IL right now. He’s yet to pitch for the Cardinals this year.
Already Returned to their Former Club
- Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
- Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
- Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
- Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
- Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.