Three Starting Pitchers Looking To Bounce Back In 2026
Many teams added to their rotations this offseason. Some opted to raise their ceiling by signing big-name free agents. The Blue Jays brought in Dylan Cease, the Red Sox signed Ranger Suarez, and the Tigers added Framber Valdez, to name a few. Others tried to maintain their floor by retaining existing starters and acquiring depth. The Padres fit the latter mold, as they brought in Griffin Canning, Germán Márquez, and Walker Buehler on low-cost deals this week.
While starting pitchers aren’t quite as volatile as relievers, injuries and underperformance still led many to post tough seasons in 2025. Tonight, we take a look at three bounce-back candidates: a top free agent, a veteran starter, and a minor-league signing.
Top Free Agent: Zac Gallen
Gallen has been a front-of-the-rotation arm at his best. From 2022-23, he posted a 3.04 ERA in 394 innings for the Diamondbacks. He struck out 26.4% of hitters in that span and ranked eighth among qualified starters with a 20.4% K-BB rate. His 9.3 fWAR ranked sixth ahead of Giants ace Logan Webb. Entering his age-28 season in 2024, there was reason to believe Gallen would continue to pitch at his prime level.
His numbers that year were still solid, if a step down from ace territory. Gallen missed a month with a right hamstring strain but still made 28 starts with a 3.65 ERA. He actually upped his groundball rate from 41.8% in 2023 to 46.2% in 2024. That said, his strikeout and walk rates both trended in the wrong direction, the latter now closer to average after two years of excellent control. Gallen slipped further in 2025. Though he stayed healthy and covered 192 innings in 33 starts, his ERA jumped to a career-high 4.83, his first below-average mark since 2021. The strikeouts slipped further to 21.5%, while his expected stats (4.28 xERA) suggest he was better than the surface numbers, but not by much.
Gallen entered the offseason as a buy-low candidate, as far as former aces go. We at MLBTR projected him for a four-year, $80MM contract even after his down year. In the end, his market didn’t develop as hoped. Gallen settled for a one-year, $22.025MM reunion with Arizona that nominally matched the value of the team’s qualifying offer in November.
Obviously, the team would love to see him return to his 2022-23 form. At the very least, Gallen figures to provide 30 starts of mid-rotation production, though he’ll undoubtedly aim for more in hopes of securing a multi-year contract next time around. The key for Gallen will be refining his breaking pitches, which graded out poorly in 2025 by Statcast’s run value metric. His curveball was worth 15 runs above average in 2024, but that fell to -4 this year, with opponents slugging over .200 more on the pitch. He’ll also look to bring up the strikeouts and keep the ball in the yard, having allowed the third-most home runs (31) of any qualified starter in 2025.
Veteran Starter: Sean Manaea
Manaea re-signed with the Mets on a three-year, $75MM deal during the 2024-25 offseason. At the time, he was coming off a strong 3.47 ERA in 181 2/3 innings in his return to full-time starting pitching (having mostly been a reliever for the Giants in 2023). With New York in 2024, Manaea struck hitters out at a 24.9% clip and did a decent job at keeping the ball in the yard compared to his career numbers. His .249 BABIP suggested he benefitted from good luck, but even so, he figured to provide solid, mid-rotation value on his new deal.
Unfortunately, his 2025 season was the exact opposite of his 2024. Manaea went down with a right oblique strain in March and missed the first three and a half months of the season. At one point, he experienced a setback when the team found loose bodies in his throwing elbow. Finally debuting on July 13, he made 15 appearances (12 starts) with a 5.64 ERA. Curiously, he posted that high ERA despite striking out a career-best 28.5% of hitters and walking a career-low 4.6%. Meanwhile, his expected stats (4.00 xERA and 3.30 xFIP) painted a much better picture than his surface-level numbers.
On the other hand, Manaea struggled badly with the long ball in 2025, allowing 13 in just 60 2/3 innings (1.93 HR/9). He also curiously ditched his sinker, which was worth 10 runs above average in 2024, to instead throw his four-seamer over 60% of the time. Opponents slugged .129 higher against the four-seamer compared to 2024, when he used it half as much. Manaea also upped his sweeper usage but saw diminished results, including a 9.6% drop in strikeout rate and a .148 increase in slugging.
Perhaps that was a mechanical problem. Manaea adopted a lower arm slot in 2024 and had a very productive second half. The combination of his oblique injury and further attempted mechanical adjustments may have contributed to his poor 2025 numbers, per Mets manager Carlos Mendoza (link via Alex Smith of SNY). The keys for him in 2026 will be regaining his pre-injury mechanics, differentiating the two fastballs like he did in 2024, and continuing to get chases on the sweeper.
Minor-League Signing: Walker Buehler
The current version of Buehler is far from the one who finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2021. The now 31-year-old has pitched 266 1/3 innings since the end of that campaign. He missed all of 2023 while recovering from August 2022 Tommy John surgery. He returned for 16 starts in 2024, but the results were decidedly poor. Buehler struck out just 18.6% of hitters against an 8.1% walk rate and allowed nearly two home runs per nine innings. His once-vaunted four-seamer was now his least valuable pitch at 13 runs below average. Buehler pitched well in the postseason for the World Series-winning Dodgers, though. The Red Sox then took a chance on a one-year, $21.05MM deal.
Unfortunately, 2025 was not kind to him either. Buehler pitched 126 innings in 26 appearances (24 starts) with a 4.93 ERA. His velocity was down on every pitch except his slider. His strikeout rate fell to just 16.3%, while his 5.5% K-BB rate was fifth-worst among starters with at least 100 innings pitched. Boston released him at the end of August. Though he did alright in a small sample with the Phillies after that, it was clear that Buehler wouldn’t do nearly as well on the market this time around.
Now competing for a back-of-the-rotation spot in San Diego, Buehler will have to work hard to regain some value. He could start with adjusting his pitch mix. He has already steadily decreased his four-seam usage as it continues to lose velocity. Meanwhile, Buehler’s sinker was well-regarded by Statcast in 2025, grading out as 6 runs above average. Making the sinker his primary fastball might help him evolve into a soft-contact, groundball pitcher. His hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity were in the 70th percentile or better in 2025, so building on that might be his best path to prolonging his career.
Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Images
Which Team Will Sign Max Scherzer?
When we last saw Max Scherzer, he was walking off the mound in Game 7 of the World Series. The future Hall of Famer had held the Dodgers to one run on four hits across 4 1/3 innings and left the game holding a 3-1 lead. It may not have been a vintage performance, but the three-time Cy Young winner did his job. The bullpen just didn’t hold the lead.
While Scherzer ended the year on a high note, his lone season in Toronto was a frustrating one. The nerve issue that has led to soreness in his thumb over the past few seasons returned early in 2025. He landed on the injured list after his first start and was sidelined into late June. Scherzer was healthy enough after that but didn’t have a great season. He only managed six quality starts among his 17 appearances. His 5.19 earned run average over 85 innings was the highest of his career.
Scherzer’s strikeout and walk rates remain solid. He punched out 23% of opponents while walking around 6% for the second consecutive season. Both marks are a little better than the respective league averages for a starter. The issue is the damage hitters have done when they make contact. Scherzer allowed more than two home runs per nine innings for the first time in his career. It was the fourth-highest homer rate in MLB among pitchers who threw 70+ innings.
As the stuff has backed up with age and the injuries, Scherzer had a tougher time getting opponents to go after pitches outside the strike zone. He had to challenge them in the heart of the plate more often to compensate, and he’s doing so without the overpowering arsenal he had in his prime. That’s going to lead to some home run trouble.
All that said, Scherzer still attacks the strike zone with a four-pitch mix. His four-seam fastball averaged 93.6 mph last season, well below peak but a tick above where it sat when he posted a 3.95 ERA over eight starts for the Rangers in 2024. He finished the year healthy, would bring a wealth of experience to younger members of a pitching staff, and has a 3.78 ERA over 33 career playoff appearances. There’s still a role for Scherzer in an MLB rotation somewhere.
The 41-year-old has already said he’s not retiring. He hasn’t fully committed to signing before Opening Day, however. In late January, Scherzer told Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic that while he’s open to signing at any time, he was willing to wait into the regular season to sign with one of the teams he prefers. It seems safe to assume he’s going to pick a team he views as a legitimate World Series contender.
Where might Scherzer end up? A return to the Blue Jays could make sense with Shane Bieber opening the season on the injured list. Toronto still has a five-man rotation of Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, José Berríos and Cody Ponce with Eric Lauer around in long relief. Adding to the rotation isn’t a necessity, but bringing Scherzer back would allow them to use a six-man rotation to monitor Yesavage’s workload in the early going.
The Braves entered the spring with lackluster rotation depth and have been hit with injuries to Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep since camp got underway. The Phillies will be without Zack Wheeler to begin the year and are likely counting on both Taijuan Walker and prospect Andrew Painter for season-opening roles.
The Twins are probably losing Pablo López for the season; are they competitive enough for Scherzer to consider signing there? Texas has Kumar Rocker and Jacob Latz competing for the fifth starter role, but Scherzer’s probably out of the price range. The Yankees are awaiting the returns of Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole. Projected fourth and fifth starters Ryan Weathers and Luis Gil have minor league options remaining and concerning injury histories.
Where do MLBTR readers expect Scherzer to land?
Where will Max Scherzer sign?
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Braves 14% (831)
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Blue Jays 14% (803)
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Giants 7% (426)
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Tigers 6% (373)
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Phillies 5% (310)
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Yankees 5% (290)
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Cardinals 4% (243)
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Orioles 4% (227)
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Padres 3% (184)
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Rockies 3% (182)
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Cubs 3% (175)
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Twins 3% (157)
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Dodgers 2% (140)
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Mets 2% (139)
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Angels 2% (126)
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Pirates 2% (124)
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Red Sox 2% (122)
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Brewers 2% (116)
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Nationals 2% (112)
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White Sox 2% (90)
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Mariners 2% (90)
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A's 1% (86)
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Diamondbacks 1% (82)
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Astros 1% (80)
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Rangers 1% (73)
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Guardians 1% (69)
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Reds 1% (59)
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Royals 1% (43)
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Rays 1% (41)
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Marlins 0% (16)
Total votes: 5,809
Poll: Which Team Had The Best Offseason?
The offseason has more or less come to a close at this point. While a handful of players remain available in free agency and there’s always a chance of a surprise trade or two throughout Spring Training, the vast majority of the heavy lifting has been done. As Spring Training begins, it’s worth checking in on what teams around the league did this winter to see which club had the strongest offseason. A look at a few of the candidates:
Baltimore Orioles
After a disastrous 2025 season that saw the club fall to the basement of the American League, the Orioles have been very busy in their efforts to turn things around. A rotation that struggled to stay above water last year saw the return of Zach Eflin as well as the additions of both Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt. Those additions may not have included the front-of-the-rotation ace the Orioles were widely expected to pursue, but the club was aggressive elsewhere on the roster. Ryan Helsley was brought in to close while Felix Bautista is injured, and the club swung a deal for Taylor Ward to help round out their outfield. By far the biggest addition of the winter, however, was slugger Pete Alonso, who signed a five-year, $155MM contract. Alonso adds a legitimate 40-homer threat to the middle of a lineup that struggled to generate much offense outside of Gunnar Henderson last year and was heavily slanted toward lefty hitters.
Chicago Cubs
It’s rare that a team would be in this conversation after losing the offseason’s top-ranked free agent, but there’s a lot to like about the 2026 Cubs even after bidding farewell to Kyle Tucker. Alex Bregman, signed to a five-year, $175MM deal, can’t be expected to be the same offensive force as peak-level Tucker, but he makes up for that by helping to complete what’s arguably become the best defensive infield in baseball alongside Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Michael Busch. The move pushes Matt Shaw into a utility role, where he can serve as protection against injury for the club while also potentially sharing time with fellow youngster Moises Ballesteros at DH. The addition of Bregman was complemented by the decision to swing a trade for high-upside righty Edward Cabrera in the rotation. That likely pushes swingman Colin Rea back into a bullpen that’s been rebuilt with Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, and Hoby Milner after losing Brad Keller, Andrew Kittredge, and Drew Pomeranz back in November.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers’ offseason hasn’t been an exceptionally busy one, but the few moves they wound up making could prove to be the most impactful of any team this winter. They kicked off their offseason by poaching star closer Edwin Diaz away from the Mets, but their biggest splash was the addition of Tucker to their outfield. Diaz and Tucker are both All-Stars with among the highest ceilings in the game at their respective positions. Adding both to an already star-studded roster, the Dodgers managed to address the 2025 team’s biggest weaknesses: a lackluster outfield and a leaky bullpen. They also extended Max Muncy on an affordable one-year deal and reunited with Kiké Hernandez and Evan Phillips. After back-to-back World Series championships, the Dodgers look even better headed into 2026 despite their relatively low volume of transactions.
New York Mets
While the Dodgers mostly kept their 2025 team intact for 2026 with just a few additions, the Mets went in the opposite direction with a complete roster overhaul. Out went Alonso, Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil. Replacing them is a host of talent ranging from new staff ace Freddy Peralta to relievers Devin Williams and Luke Weaver on the pitching side, and a cluster of position players headlined by star infielder Bo Bichette. In addition to Bichette, who’ll move to third base alongside shortstop Francisco Lindor, the team brought in Marcus Semien to handle the keystone, Jorge Polanco to cover first base, and Luis Robert Jr. to work in center field. It’s a busy offseason that completely changed the look of the team that failed to make the playoffs last year, though it remains to be seen if this team will better support Lindor and Juan Soto in their pursuit of a World Series championship.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays finished just shy of a World Series championship last year, and this winter they acted like a team that wanted to leave no stone unturned in their efforts to close the gap. A new-look rotation added Dylan Cease at the front and Cody Ponce at the back. A lineup that lost Bichette in free agency looked to make up for it by bringing in Kazuma Okamoto and Jesus Sanchez. Meanwhile, the team’s shaky bullpen upgraded from hard-throwing righty Seranthony Dominguez by bringing in ever-reliable soft-tosser Tyler Rogers. Missing out on both Bichette and Tucker takes some of the punch out of Toronto’s offseason, but adding Cease to a rotation that already includes Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Trey Yesavage should make the Jays significantly more threatening than they already were last year.
Other Options
Plenty of teams had offseasons worthy of praise aside from the five listed above. The Tigers managed to snag arguably the top pitcher available in lefty Framber Valdez on a short-term deal while also reuniting with future Hall of Famer and Detroit legend Justin Verlander, though failing to upgrade the lineup is surely disappointing for fans hoping to see the team make the most of Tarik Skubal‘s likely last year in town.
The Red Sox were very busy this winter as they brought in Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo, Willson Contreras, and Caleb Durbin via the trade market while signing Ranger Suarez and Isiah Kiner-Falefa in free agency, but the team’s failure to reunite with Bregman casts a shadow over their busy winter.
The Astros got the rotation depth they coveted, signing NPB star Tatsuya Imai to a three-year deal with multiple opt-outs and acquiring righty Mike Burrows in a three-team trade that sent outfielder Jacob Melton to the Rays. They’re still too right-handed and have a glut of infielders that could still lead to one more big spring trade.
The Pirates were very active by their usual standards, overhauling the lineup to bring in Ryan O’Hearn, Marcell Ozuna, and Brandon Lowe among others. The Rangers came into the winter without much room to add but managed to come away with a solid bat (Nimmo) for the lineup and a big arm (MacKenzie Gore) for the rotation nonetheless. The Mariners kept Josh Naylor and added Brendan Donovan to the infield. The A’s added only complementary pieces (McNeil, Aaron Civale) in terms of external additions but deserve praise for their franchise-altering extensions of Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson.
On the flipside, the rebuilding Cardinals managed to shed significant portions of the Contreras, Gray and Nolan Arenado contracts and pulled in a nice return from the Mariners (and Rays) in the three-team Donovan trade.
What team do MLBTR’s readers think had the best offseason this winter? Have your say in the poll below:
Which team had the best offseason?
Will The Angels Make A Late Offseason Splash?
It’s been a relatively quiet offseason for the Angels and they are currently slated to open 2026 with a notably lower payroll than last year. What’s unclear is if they plan to use that difference to make a move before the season starts or if they’re simply cutting costs.
The Halos began the offseason with some initial savings. A number of players hit free agency, taking some money off the books. 2025 was the last year of Tyler Anderson‘s three-year, $39MM deal, which paid him $13MM annually. Kenley Jansen‘s $10MM one-year deal ran its course, among others.
Some of the savings were going to be undercut by an arbitration raise for Taylor Ward. He made $7.825MM in 2025 and was projected to almost double that, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a jump to $13.7MM in 2026. The Halos quickly avoided that by flipping Ward to the Orioles in mid-November, just a couple of weeks into the offseason. In return, they received Grayson Rodriguez, a former top pitching prospect who has struggled to stay healthy. Since Rodriguez has not yet reached arbitration, they essentially wiped Ward’s entire projected salary from the 2026 payroll.
Not long after that, in late November, it was reported that the Angels were trying to work out some kind of financial arrangement with Anthony Rendon. The frequently-injured third baseman was set to be paid $38MM in 2026, the final year of his ill-fated seven-year, $245MM deal. It took a few months to get everything worked out but the two sides eventually agreed to pay the money over five years in even instalments. The Halos will pay Rendon $7.6MM this year instead of $38MM. That’ll cost them more in future seasons but free up more than $30MM for the short term.
That led to some optimism that the club was clearing the deck for something bold, but that hasn’t come to fruition. The Angels have given big league deals to six free agents, all one-year pacts, none of them worth more than $5MM. Brent Suter got $1.25MM, Jordan Romano and Alek Manoah $2MM each, Drew Pomeranz and Yoán Moncada $4MM apiece, and Kirby Yates $5MM. Put together, those six deals add up to $18.25MM.
Taking everything into consideration, where does that leave the Angels? RosterResource projects them for a payroll of $181MM, though that includes Rendon’s full $38MM salary. They opened last year at $204MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That means they could have more than $20MM of space relative to last year, before even factoring in the Rendon savings. They probably want to put some of the Rendon money aside for the deferred payouts but theoretically have some extra powder dry in the short term.
Perhaps the plan all along was to wait until late in the winter, as the free agents who linger unsigned the longest usually have to settle for below-market deals. The tide has indeed shifted in that direction recently. Since the start of February, the notable free agent deals have all come in under what MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason.
Eugenio Suárez was projected for $63MM over three years but settled for $15MM on a one-year deal. Framber Valdez was projected for $150MM over three years but got $115MM over three. Zac Gallen was predicted for $80MM over four years but settled for one-year and $22.025MM, with notable deferrals. Chris Bassitt was projected for $38MM over two years but got a one-year deal worth $18.5MM. Nick Martinez was predicted for $25MM over two but got $13MM on a one-year deal with the Rays. Justin Verlander was always expected to get just one year because of his age, but his heavily-deferred $13MM deal with the Tigers was well below his $22MM projection.
There aren’t many free agents left at this stage of the calendar, but one area with a bit of meat left on the bone is starting pitching. Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, Max Scherzer and others remain unsigned. Giolito was predicted for two years and $32MM at the start of the offseason but won’t get that now. Littell’s projection was a bit lower at $24MM over two years. Like Verlander, Scherzer’s age will cap him at one-year offers. MLBTR projected $15MM in the fall but that doesn’t seem possible now.
The Angels have added Rodriguez and Manoah to the rotation but there’s room for another arm. Yusei Kikuchi projects as the top guy on the chart. José Soriano will be in there. Soriano is coming off a healthy season but has a lengthy injury history. Rodriguez and Manoah have hardly pitched in the past two years. Reid Detmers is going to get a chance to return to the rotation but was pitching in relief in 2025. Everyone in that group apart from Kikuchi can be optioned to the minors.
Perhaps the Angels are looking to strike in that department, but it’s also possible they have simply been trimming payroll for its own sake. The Angels are one of nine teams who terminated deals with Main Street Sports as that company is apparently in poor shape financially. Early this month, six of those nine pivoted to having MLB handle their broadcasts in 2026. The Angels followed suit a week later.
As recently as 2023, the Angels were getting expected annual revenues of about $125MM from their regional sports network (RSN) deal. Main Street, previously known as Diamond Sports Group, was in bankruptcy proceedings and dropped the Angels going into 2025. The two sides worked out a new deal for last season but presumably with a lower fee payment. That was supposed to be a three-year deal but, as mentioned, the Angels and several other clubs cut ties with the company not too long ago.
Now that the Angels seem to be going the MLB route, that should be another hit. Travis Sawchik of MLB.com reported in January that teams who have lost their RSN deals are now getting about 50% of the revenues they used to receive on those pacts.
Perhaps owner Arte Moreno’s response to that declining revenue is a payroll decrease. That would be a frustrating situation for the club and its fans. The Angels are the club with the longest active playoff drought, with their last appearance coming back in 2014. They won 72 games last year, finishing ahead of just the Twins and White sox in the American League standings. They look like one of the weaker clubs going into 2026. FanGraphs’ Projected Standings have them second from the bottom in the A.L., ahead of just the Sox. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even more pessimistic, putting the Halos behind Chicago.
Long-term help may not be on the way either. The club has a tendency to use top draft picks on college players and then rush them to the majors, which has contributed to a farm system that isn’t well regarded. Baseball America ranks their system 28th out of the 30 clubs in the majors. ESPN puts them 27th and The Athletic 29th.
Signing someone like Giolito or Littell wouldn’t solve everything that’s currently ailing the franchise, but it would raise the floor on a team that’s currently below sea level. At this part of the calendar, it’s that or nothing. Based on the way the offseason has gone, the smart money might be on nothing.
Photo courtesy of William Liang, Imagn Images
Poll: Will Masataka Yoshida Make The Red Sox’ Roster?
As Spring Training gets underway, players on the roster bubble all around the league are vying for the handful of vacant spots on their clubs’ respective depth charts. In most cases, the players who find themselves in that situation are either up-and-coming youngsters or veterans on minor league deals trying to play their way back into the majors. It’s a lot less common to find a veteran player on a significant contract who could be in danger of losing his roster spot entering camp, but that’s the exact situation Red Sox DH Masataka Yoshida could find himself in this spring.
Yoshida, 32, has two years and $36MM remaining on the contract he signed with Boston when coming over to MLB from Japan. Despite that big investment the Red Sox made in Yoshida, however, things haven’t gone especially well. After a rookie season where he graded out as an exceptionally weak left fielder defensively while posting a 111 wRC+, Yoshida was used in a pure DH role for 2024 as he played through a shoulder injury that hampered his ability to throw. His wRC+ ticked up slightly to 116 that year, though he made it into just 108 games. His role shrunk further in 2025, as he spent most of the season on the injured list and was used only sparingly even upon his return to action. He appeared in just 55 games overall and was far less productive than he had been in the past, slashing just .266/.307/.388 (88 wRC+) in 205 trips to the plate.
One down season where Yoshida played just a third of the campaign wouldn’t normally be cause to cut a player, especially one making that much money. The Red Sox find themselves in a bit of a bind in terms of roster-building headed into the year, however. Despite years of speculation, Boston has declined so far to trade one of Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu, leaving them both in the everyday lineup alongside Ceddanne Rafaela and Roman Anthony. Rafaela is a capable defender on the infield, but would be wasted on the dirt given his status as one of the top defensive center fielders in the sport. That leaves Duran, Abreu, and Anthony to handle the two outfield corners, and the logical choice rather than benching one of the team’s best bats is to simply play whoever isn’t on the grass that day at DH.
That leaves Yoshida without a clear way to force his way into the lineup. It’s unclear if the 5’8” Yoshida would be able to handle first base even if called upon to do so, and he has no experience at the position to speak of. Even if he could, Willson Contreras figures to get everyday reps after being acquired from the Cardinals this offseason. Even if an injury occurred in the outfield, it’s unclear if Yoshida would be the team’s first choice to fill the gap. Triston Casas may not be ready to return from injury to start the year, but figures to be back at some point in the first half and at the very least could be a more credible back up to Contreras at first base than Yoshida. Kristian Campbell struggled in his first year as a big leaguer, but the Red Sox reportedly plan to use him primarily in the outfield.
Yoshida has been in trade rumors for a while but remains on the roster. It’s not hard to see him having a larger role on another roster, as even with his lackluster defense he remains a career 109 wRC+ hitter who has struck out in just 13.0% of his big league at-bats. He can be productive at the plate with a very high-contact approach which could be very valuable to teams with swing and miss concerns or a preference for contact hitters, though the contract remains an obstacle.
The question, then, becomes whether the Red Sox would be willing to cut loose a player who figures to be productive if given an opportunity because that opportunity doesn’t exist with the club as presently constructed. It’s hard to see Yoshida as the best use of one of the team’s limited bench spots. Connor Wong (or another backup catcher) figures to take one spot, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa was brought in to be a utility infielder and will surely take another. Romy Gonzalez was very productive last year and would be a worthwhile platoon partner for Marcelo Mayer or Abreu in a heavily left-handed Red Sox lineup, and that leaves just one spot on the bench available. Bringing in another right-handed bat like Campbell, Nate Eaton, Andruw Monasterio, or non-roster invitee Brendan Rodgers would make a lot of sense given the heavily left-handed Red Sox lineup. Even a more versatile lefty like Tsung-Che Cheng would arguably be a better use of the roster spot than a largely DH-only player like Yoshida. And if the Red Sox ever wanted a big lefty bat for their bench, they could simply turn to the optionable Casas.
How do MLBTR readers think the Red Sox will handle Yoshida this spring, barring injuries? Will they look to move on from him to create more flexibility on the bench, or will they stick with him in hopes they can find him enough playing time to allow him to rebuild value? Have your say in the poll below:
Will Masataka Yoshida be with the Red Sox on Opening Day?
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Yes, he'll be a member of the Red Sox organization to start the season. 53% (994)
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No, he'll either be traded or cut from the roster during Spring Training. 47% (898)
Total votes: 1,892
Poll: Will Six-Man Rotations Be More Common This Year?
In MLB, the five-man rotation has been the standard for more than 50 years. Things have slowly begun to shift in that regard, however. Several teams have experimented with a six-man rotation over the years, and it’s virtually a requirement for the Dodgers thanks to the presence of Shohei Ohtani and his unique needs as a two-way player. It’s become increasingly common for teams aside from the one that employs Ohtani, however. MLB.com’s Mike Petriello wrote prior to the 2025 campaign that starts on five days of rest have become more common than the traditional four days of rest associated with a standard five-man rotation.
Of course, a start can happen on five days of rest for more reasons than the use of a six-man rotation. A team’s off-days, the deployment of bullpen games, and even something like a starter returning from the IL or being promoted from the minors can push a pitcher’s regularly scheduled start back organically without there being a long-term plan to use a six-man rotation. Regardless of how it’s done, extra rest for pitchers can generally only be a good thing.
The vast majority of pitchers perform better and have an easier time pitching deeper into games when they get extra rest. For teams carrying pitchers used to the schedule used in Nippon Professional Baseball, a six-man rotation comes with the added benefit of keeping those players on a schedule they’re familiar with. That extra rest could also help prevent against injury and late-season fatigue, helping teams confident in their chances of making it to October enter the playoffs in tip-top shape.
The main arguments against using a six-man rotation in the past have mainly been about volume. The greater the size of the rotation, the less often your best pitchers are out there. It’s difficult for some teams to find even five quality starters, much less six. Even those that do have six decent starters would have to be willing to cut into their bullpen, due to the 13-pitcher roster limit. Despite the drawbacks, the tide may be turning regardless.
The 2025 campaign saw teams like the Red Sox and Mets enter the season with more starters than they could fit into the rotation on paper, though injuries left those teams to use six-man rotations only sparingly throughout the year. They have just as much (if not more) starting depth this year, however, and other teams have begun to follow suit. Looking at the depth charts of certain teams, some would struggle not to use a six-man rotation if everyone is healthy concurrently. The Cubs and Orioles both added more starters to their roster this offseason than will fit into a fully-healthy rotation, while the aforementioned Red Sox have an on-paper starting five that fails to include two consensus top-50 prospects in the sport (Payton Tolle and Connelly Early) plus two starters expected to return from injuries early in the year (Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford).
These aren’t the only teams facing a potential surplus of arms. Even with Shane Bieber set to start the year on the injured list, the Blue Jays will be pushing one of Jose Berrios or Eric Lauer to the bullpen—and that’s before considering longtime top prospect Ricky Tiedemann. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon could push impressive young arms like Will Warren and Luis Gil out of the Yankees’ rotation before the end of the first half if the injury bug doesn’t do so before then. The Mets currently figure to use a six-man rotation even with Tobias Myers in a relief role and Jonah Tong at Triple-A. Even a team like the Astros that struggled to field a healthy rotation at all last year currently has upwards of ten arms in the conversation for starts headed into Opening Day, with reinforcements from the injured list likely at some point.
Of course, it should be remembered that pitching injuries have always been inevitable and have only become increasingly common over the years. Some of these teams will struggle to field even a five-man rotation at one point or another this year, and a few will likely never have enough healthy starting depth that a six-man rotation becomes a realistic possibility for more than a couple of weeks at a time. With so many clubs loaded in pitching depth, however, it becomes easier and easier to see rival front offices looking towards the example of the reigning back-to-back World Series champions and adopting some of their tactics.
If the Dodgers open the season with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Ohtani, Emmet Sheehan, and Roki Sasaki all ready to start games, that group of six will be backed up by an incredibly deep group that also includes Ben Casparius, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Justin Wrobleski, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, and Bobby Miller (not to mention non-roster invitees like Cole Irvin and Nick Frasso). That’s the sort of depth that would make it easy to field a six-man rotation all throughout the year even in spite of injuries, and while no team quite matches that level of depth, teams like those in Boston, Queens, and on the north side of Chicago do come close.
For those clubs, the biggest hangup might end up being the risk of wearing out their bullpens. While the Dodgers have three spots available in their projected bullpen for optionable relievers, the Mets and Cubs both only have two (one of which, in the case of Chicago, belongs to closer Daniel Palencia). Teams with such minimal flexibility in the bullpen can struggle to keep their relief corps fresh throughout the season, and that would surely only get harder with seven spots instead of eight.
How do MLBTR readers think the six-man rotation will fare around the league in 2026? Will we see more teams than just the Dodgers utilize one for most or all of the season? Or will it be more of the same where teams prefer to find other ways to get their starters extra rest, such as occasional spot starts and bullpen games? Have your say in the poll below:
Will more teams use six-man rotations this year?
T.R. Sullivan: A Retrospective On The Harold Baines-Sammy Sosa Trade
T.R. Sullivan was a legend on the Rangers beat. He retired in December 2020 after 32 years writing for the Denison Herald, Fort Worth Star-Telegram and MLB.com. T.R. is also a friend to MLBTR. A couple of months ago, he kindly offered up a retrospective on the Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas trade. “I just felt like writing it,” T.R. explained. More recently, Texas got shut down by a snowstorm, which T.R. took as an opportunity to explore the 1989 trade involving Harold Baines, Sammy Sosa and others. We’re proud to publish it!
Texas Gov. George W. Bush was in the middle of an ultimately successful run for the White House in 2000 when he made a guest appearance on Late Night with David Letterman.
At one point, they started talking about Bush’s biggest mistakes, the ones he really regretted.
“Well,” Bush said with a sly smile. “I once traded away Sammy Sosa.”
The line got big laughs from the audience – coming at the height of Sosa’s career as a power-hitting outfielder – but probably not as much from Rangers fans watching at home in Texas. Bush’s twin daughters Jenna and Barbara probably weren’t amused either considering the same trade also involved Rangers shortstop Scott Fletcher.
The veteran infielder just happened to be their favorite player. They named their dog “Spot” in his honor.
The reality is Bush did not make that trade. True, he was the Rangers co-managing general partner in 1989 when Sosa, Fletcher and pitcher Wilson Álvarez were traded to the White Sox for outfielder Harold Baines and infielder Fred Manrique.
But the guy who made the trade was general manager Tom Grieve, who many years later would confess, “The minute I made that trade I knew it was a mistake. We made the deal for all the wrong reasons.”
The guy on the other end of the deal was White Sox GM Larry Himes, who would later hold the same position with the Cubs. In both jobs, Himes pulled off a trade that involved acquiring Sosa for a veteran All-Star designated hitter.
The first trade was not a popular one with White Sox fans at the time.
“It’s an unpopular decision as far as the fans are concerned…it doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good decision,” Himes said in the Chicago Tribune.
The Rangers-White Sox trade came down on July 29, 1989. At the time, the Rangers were trying to stay alive in the A.L West race and the White Sox were in a rebuilding mode. It was a classic mid-season trade, just like hundreds of others that are made or at least talked about at the trade deadline down through the years.
But this trade turned out different. This is the trade that wouldn’t go away. Instead, as the years passed, it really did take on a life of its own with a bewildering number of twists and turns involving implications felt from the White House and halls of Congress to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.
In short, the trade involved a future member of the Hall of Fame, but not the one everybody expected, the one who ended up having to testify in front of Congress on national television at the height of baseball’s steroids scandal.
Examining Jordan Hicks’ Future With The White Sox
The White Sox acquired right-hander Jordan Hicks as little more than a financial chip, allowing the Red Sox to trim payroll for the price of an intriguing prospect. Boston escaped from $16MM of the $24MM they owed the veteran through 2027. To facilitate the maneuver, the Red Sox sent over right-hander David Sandlin, who immediately slotted in as a top 10 prospect in Chicago’s system, per FanGraphs.
It’s a solid piece of business for an organization with ample payroll flexibility. Even after adding Hicks, Austin Hays, and Seranthony Dominguez, the White Sox project to have the fourth-lowest payroll in the league. FanGraphs’ RosterResource tool has the club at $86MM, right in line with the $85MM it spent last season.
So where does that leave Hicks? He struggled with the Giants last season and was even worse when he came to the Red Sox as part of the Rafael Devers trade. The starter experience went well with San Francisco early in 2024, but has since looked like an ill-advised path. Hicks is now two years and three franchises removed from being a dominant reliever. He joins a Chicago roster with little in the way of talent and experience in the bullpen.
Hicks debuted with the Cardinals in 2018. He quickly gained notoriety for a 100-mph sinker that generated just as many cool GIFs as it did broken bats. Harnessing the pitch was an issue, as Hicks recorded a bloated 13.3% walk rate in his first MLB stint. He opened the 2019 campaign as the primary closer, but a UCL tear ended his season in June. The injury would kick off a lengthy stretch marred by health concerns. Hicks missed time over the next four years with elbow, forearm, neck, and arm fatigue issues.
St. Louis got a healthy first half out of Hicks in 2023 and used the opportunity to deal him to Toronto. He was solid with the Blue Jays, mostly setting up for incumbent closer Jordan Romano. Hicks landed a decent four-year, $44MM commitment from the Giants that offseason. He earned a spot in the rotation, and the transition initially went swimmingly. Hicks allowed two earned runs or fewer in his first seven starts with San Francisco. He expanded the usage of his secondaries while trimming his velocity to a more sustainable level.
Hicks trended down after the solid first month as a starter. His fastball steadily lost ticks as the innings piled up. After allowing 12 runs across 13 innings to open July, Hicks was booted from the rotation. He was given another shot as a starter this past season, but it went even worse. Hicks was strictly a reliever once he joined the Red Sox.
It seems pretty clear from the past two years of results that Hicks’ lone path to big-league viability is as a reliever. That’s where the Chicago front office landed after bringing him in.
“At its floor, we have a guy who can really help us in the bullpen, get him back on track, being that he’s been kind of back and forth on different roles, a couple of different stops along the way,” general manager Chris Getz told reporters, including Scott Merkin of MLB.com. “I think the White Sox are at [their] best if he’s at his best in the bullpen.”
The run prevention results were bad (8.20 ERA), but Hicks posted a strong 111 Stuff+ in 18 2/3 innings out of the Boston bullpen. His sinker and slider were at 115 and 117, respectively. Hicks’ four-seamer and splitter graded out poorly, though he used them infrequently.
“Our stuff grades, both metrically and our scouting evaluations, are still really strong,” Getz said. “There’s likely some tweaking that can go with his arsenal … It sounds like it’s in a really good spot … We think he’s a guy that is not too far off from being the guy he once was.”
Chicago has gone three straight seasons without a reliever securing double-digit saves. Liam Hendriks was the last to do it, with 37 in 2022. Jordan Leasure paced the team with seven saves in 2025. Grant Taylor and Mike Vasil combined to close out 10 games. Leasure, Taylor, and Vasil should remain in the late-inning mix. Dominguez will likely be the closer to start the year, but he’s a candidate to get moved at the trade deadline if he performs well.
Hicks should get the chance to work his way into high-leverage spots. A Dominguez trade would open the door for a two-month trial as the closer. Hicks will be under contract for $12MM in 2027. He could serve as an affordable stopper next season. There are several “ifs” and “coulds” in that scenario, but for his part, Hicks sounds ready to return to a prominent role. He told reporters that he hit 99.5 mph in a recent bullpen session. The reliever added that he wasn’t sore the next day after sitting in the upper 90s during the outing.
“That’s telling me that my body’s in a good place,” Hicks said.
Poll: How Will The Yankees’ Rotation Fare In 2026?
Much has been made of the Yankees’ apparent offseason strategy of “running it back.” While retaining Trent Grisham and especially Cody Bellinger surely count as successes, some fans were hoping for more tangible improvements. Aaron Judge will be 34 in April, and there are only so many years left in his prime (at least as a perennial MVP candidate). The Blue Jays, Orioles, and Red Sox have all upgraded their rosters, meaning the Yankees will have their work cut out for them in 2026.
One area with a range of potential outcomes is the rotation. The group performed quite well in 2025, placing eighth in the league with a combined 13.5 fWAR. Max Fried and Carlos Rodón were the biggest reasons for that success. Fried excelled in a career-high 195 1/3 innings, showcasing his signature control and groundball tendencies en route to a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young voting. Rodón matched Fried’s innings total in his best season as a Yankee, posting a 3.09 ERA with an above-average 25.7% strikeout rate and cutting down on home runs. Rookie Will Warren made 33 starts and showed promise, as did Cam Schlittler in a second-half callup.
The ceiling is clearly high, especially if Warren and Schlittler do well in their sophomore campaigns. Still, there are downside risks related to injuries, underperformance, and depth. Starting with injuries, Gerrit Cole will be back at some point after missing last year due to Tommy John surgery. Prior to that, he only pitched half a season in 2024 due to elbow inflammation. He is now 35 years old with his last full-season workload coming in 2023, when he won the AL Cy Young award.
Manager Aaron Boone said last week that Cole has “had a good rehab” with “no hiccups” (link via Manny Randhawa of MLB.com). It’s not a matter of whether he will perform well when he returns. The question is whether he will sustain his ace-level, pre-injury performance now that he is in his mid-30s and coming off of injury. There is also the matter of volume, as even a June return from Cole would leave several months’ worth of innings for other starters to cover.
Rodón is in a similar spot after undergoing surgery in October to remove loose bodies in his elbow. He is more likely to avoid starting 2026 on the 60-day injured list than Cole, with Rodón aiming to return in late April or early May. He is two years younger than Cole, so he’s less of a risk to suddenly decline. The question with Rodón is whether he can repeat his 2025 performance. A look at his Statcast page offers reason for optimism, with his fastball, breaking, and offspeed run values all grading in the 91st percentile or better. That said, he was more of a mid-rotation starter in 2024, when he posted a 3.95 ERA and allowed 1.59 home runs per nine innings. Both he and Cole are under contract through 2028.
As for the younger arms, a lot of the rotation’s success depends on improvement from Warren and Schlittler maintaining his performance over a larger sample. For Warren, that comes down to improving his secondary offerings. While his fastball graded out in the 95th percentile by run value, his breaking and offspeed pitches were points of struggle. His slider was his main breaking pitch, but Statcast considered it 10.6 runs below average. His curveball and changeup were both at least 4.6 runs below average. His 24.1% strikeout rate was impressive, but he’ll need to sharpen his secondary offerings and cut back on hard contact if he wants to become a true mid-rotation starter.
Schlittler was a revelation in 14 starts last year. He had a 2.96 ERA and a 27.3% strikeout rate in 73 innings during the regular season and turned in an all-time rookie performance in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Red Sox. His ceiling is arguably higher than Warren’s, although there are similar questions regarding his secondary offerings and control. Statcast took a negative view of his curveball and slider, which he only used a combined 17.3% of the time. Meanwhile, his 10.2% walk rate could use some improvement. None of that diminishes the value of his plus fastball, of course. Still, he’ll need to make adjustments in order to sustain last year’s performance.
Outside of those arms, the club has Luis Gil and newly-acquired Ryan Weathers on hand. Gil won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2024 but only threw 57 innings over 11 starts last year due to a right lat strain. His 3.32 ERA was good on the surface, but his peripheral numbers – 4.94 xERA and 4.63 FIP – painted him about a run and a half higher. His struggles with control are well-known at this point, and he also suffered a 10.0% drop in strikeout rate in 2025.
Weathers has 86th-percentile fastball velocity, but he has only thrown 281 big-league innings since debuting in 2021. Last year, he was limited to eight starts and 38 1/3 innings due to left flexor and lat strains. The Yankees shelled out four prospects to acquire him, so they’ll give him a chance to harness his fastball while betting on better health. Otherwise, the team has Ryan Yarbrough and Paul Blackburn as depth options. Yarbrough did well enough last year, but neither option inspires much confidence if they need to cover significant innings. Meanwhile, Clarke Schmidt underwent UCL surgery in July, so he won’t be an option until the second half, if at all.
How do you think the Yankees’ rotation will fare in 2026? Be sure to let us know in the poll.
How Will The Yankees' Rotation Fare In 2026?
Photo courtesy of Rafael Suanes, Imagn Images
Looking At The Angels’ Internal Infield Options
The Angels have had a quiet offseason. It can be argued their biggest move was restructuring Anthony Rendon‘s final year under contract, with the two parties deferring his $38MM salary over five years. In terms of adding to the roster, the club signed Jordan Romano, Drew Pomeranz, Kirby Yates, and recently Brent Suter for the bullpen. They’ve also bought low on Alek Manoah, Grayson Rodriguez, and Josh Lowe (the latter two by trade) and re-signed Yoan Moncada to play third base.
With Moncada being a returning player, the Angels’ infield hasn’t seen much of an upgrade. Perhaps that’s due to financial uncertainty. The club recently terminated its contract with Main Street Sports and may consider turning over their broadcasts to MLB – generally a less-lucrative arrangement. Whatever the reason, the team’s infield still has some question marks, especially at second base. What options do the Angels have at present? Let’s take a look at the possibilities:
Moore is the incumbent at the keystone after Luis Rengifo, who led Angels second basemen with 260 plate appearances last year, became a free agent. He was the club’s first-round draft pick in 2024 and will get plenty of opportunities on that basis alone. That said, Moore struggled mightily at the plate in his debut season in 2025. In 184 PA across 53 games, he batted .198/.284/.370 and graded out 18% below average by wRC+. His 10.3% walk rate was a positive, but that was outweighed by a 33.7% strikeout rate. Moore also has room for improvement on defense, with Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both taking a negative view of his work at the keystone. The key for him in 2026 will be making more consistent contact and getting on base so he can take advantage of his 78th-percentile speed.
Grissom was acquired from the Red Sox two months ago. He owns a career line of .255/.309/.346 with an 82 wRC+ in 350 PA for the Braves and Red Sox from 2022-24. Unfortunately, he didn’t play at all in the majors in 2025, instead spending the year at Triple-A. While he was above-average there and posted good strikeout and walk numbers, time is running out for him to prove himself at the big-league level. Grissom’s defense at second base is on par with Moore’s (-3 DRS and -8 OAA in 613 innings), so he’ll need to outhit Moore to compete with the recent draftee for playing time. Grissom is out of options and comes with five additional years of team control.
Peraza is a former Yankees prospect who has yet to make an impression in the majors outside of a late-season callup in 2022. In 524 PA from 2022-25, Peraza has batted just .189/.260/.282 with a 54 wRC+. He has also struck out at a 27.1% clip in his career, including 34.7% of the time in 95 PA with the Angels in 2025. He has only played 205 career innings at second base, although DRS and OAA both see him as slightly above average. Apart from his range, Peraza also has 81st-percentile arm strength, so the Angels might take advantage by playing him across the infield. Of course, he’ll need to cut back on the strikeouts and get on base more frequently to justify a bigger role than “defensive replacement.”
Guzman was an international signing in 2021 and made his big-league debut at the end of last year, albeit for just 43 PA. He batted .247/.343/.426 with a 119 wRC+ across Double-A and Triple-A in 2025, showing decent power with 17 home runs. Paris was the Angels’ second-round draft pick in 2019 and has made 245 PA in the majors from 2023-25. He is a steady defender but hasn’t shown anything with the bat, with a career wRC+ of 50 and an extremely high 42.1% strikeout rate in 140 PA last year. Even as depth pieces, Guzman and Paris are lower on the pecking order than Grissom and Peraza. Both have at least one option remaining, so they’re likely ticketed for Triple-A.
Minor-League Signings
Trey Mancini and Jeimer Candelario are in the organization on minor-league deals and will likely attend big-league Spring Training. Both are veterans with minimal track records in recent years. Mancini was out of baseball entirely in 2024 and spent 2025 with the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A affiliate, hitting 10% better than average by wRC+ in 335 PA. His last productive big-league season was in 2022 (105 wRC+). Candelario was released by the Reds mid-way through last year after seeing his offense crater compared to the heights of his 2023 campaign. In 554 PA since the start of 2024, he owns a wRC+ of just 76 and has struggled badly to get on base. Candelario is limited to the infield corners and Mancini to just first base, so their ceilings are essentially as backups if Moncada or Nolan Schanuel get injured.
Photo courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images