MLBTR Originals

The All-Star game is later today, and fans around the game are waiting eagerly for the star-studded event while baseball’s best players prepare to take the field. These days, the Midsummer Classic doesn’t hold the same influence as it did when it decided home field advantage for the World Series prior to the 2017 season. Even so, the exhibition remains a point of pride for players. The AL has historically dominated over the years, as they won every year between 2013 and 2022 until the NL finally snapped that streak in 2023. The junior circuit took the crown back last year, however. Who will emerge victorious this year? There’s a level of randomness to a one-game event like this one that can’t be ignored, but that doesn’t mean we can’t evaluate the talent on each roster and attempt to predict who will come out on top.

The starting pitchers for each league are difficult to choose between. Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes are two of the most dominating arms in the sport. Skenes has a 2.01 ERA and 27.9% strikeout rate this year, while Skubal has a 2.23 ERA backed up by an absurd 33.4% strikeout rate. Perhaps Skubal’s overwhelming strikeout stuff could give the American League a slight edge, but a number of other arms will appear throughout the game as well. The National League has a couple of more unconventional picks, as veteran lefty Clayton Kershaw will take the mound at some point during the game as a “Legend Pick” by the commissioner’s office despite his numbers in ten starts this year being more solid than spectacular. Another wild card on the NL roster is rookie Jacob Misiorowski, who has started just five MLB games so far but has a 33.7% strikeout rate that rivals that of Skubal.

While there are some reasons to think the pitching options favor the junior circuit, the NL benefits from having arguably the stronger group of position players. Perhaps no one in the NL can hold a candle to the pairing that is Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh, but with Jose Ramirez sitting the game out this year and the unconventional pick of Javier Baez patrolling center field to start the game for the AL it’s not hard to see how the senior circuit could stake out an advantage. All nine of the NL’s elected starters figure to participate in the game, meaning Skubal and the rest of the AL’s pitchers will have to contend with a heart of the order that figures to feature Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Kyle Tucker. The NL also figures to be no slouch defensively, with Francisco Lindor and Pete Crow-Armstrong offering two of the sport’s very best gloves up the middle.

Of course, it’s not just the starters who will play in the game. Jonathan Aranda, Byron Buxton, and Bobby Witt Jr. are among the options on the AL’s star-studded bench, though players like Pete Alonso, Elly De La Cruz, and Corbin Carroll are hardly slouches in their own right. Should Boone and Roberts opt to go for traditional closers in this evening’s game, both will have formidable options as well. Edwin Diaz is representing the Mets this year with a 1.66 ERA and 19 saves so far, while Astros southpaw Josh Hader sports a 2.53 ERA and 25 saves.

Both rosters are extremely impressive from top to bottom, as any collection of All-Stars should be. Which side will come out on top in tonight’s contest? Have your say in the poll below:

The 2025 home run derby takes place tonight at 7pm Central as part of the 2025 All-Star festivities in Atlanta. The field of eight consists of…

• Byron Buxton, Twins
• Junior Caminero, Rays
• Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees
• Oneil Cruz, Pirates
• Matt Olson, Braves
• Cal Raleigh, Mariners
• Brent Rooker, Athletics
• James Wood, Nationals

Per MLB.com, here is the format:

“In the first round, the eight players each have three minutes or 40 pitches (whichever comes first) to hit as many homers as possible. There is also a bonus period for each player that lasts until they record three outs (any swing that doesn’t result in a home run) within the period. If a player hits a home run of at least 425 feet within the bonus period, the period is extended until the player records a fourth out.

The players with the top four homer totals advance to the semis. In the event of a first-round tie, the player who hit the longest home run during the round advances.

In the semifinals, the format shifts to “knockout style,” with No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3. The seeds are determined solely by the number of home runs each player hit in the first round. Players will have two minutes or 27 pitches in the semifinals and finals, and home run totals from the first round don’t carry over.

Ties in the semifinals or finals are broken by successive three-swing “swing-offs” until there is a winner.

The winners of the two semifinal matchups advance to the finals, where the limits are reduced to two minutes and 27 pitches. The player with the most home runs after that period is crowned Home Run Derby champion.

One final note: Each batter is entitled to one 45-second timeout in each of the three regulation periods, but timeouts can’t be called during the bonus periods or tiebreakers.”

According to Yahoo Sports, $2.5MM will be given out as prize money. The winner gets $1MM and the runner-up $750K. The rest of the money will be shared amongst the other participants. Last year’s champion was Teoscar Hernández of the Dodgers but he is not defending his title. He spent some time on the IL in May due to a groin strain and doesn’t want to risk reaggravating that injury, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. He also fouled a ball off his foot here in July and missed a few games.

Of this year’s eight participants, Olson is the only one with previous derby experience. Ronald Acuña Jr. was originally in the lineup to represent the home team but he was scratched with some back tightness, so Olson has stepped in. In 2021, Olson hit 23 home runs in the first round but was edged out by Trey Mancini’s 24, with that year’s format being a head-to-head bracket style. He has 276 career home runs in regular season play, including 17 this year.

Olson should be the hometown favorite but Buxton might also get some support since he grew up in Georgia. Per Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press, Buxton’s son is very excited to bring him a towel and Gatorade during the event. Buxton has 154 career home runs, including 21 so far in 2025.

Raleigh is having a monster season, with 38 home runs already in the bank. The record for most home runs in a season by a primary catcher is Salvador Perez with 48, so Raleigh is on pace to destroy that. Raleigh’s previous career high was his 34 homers last year, so he already eclipsed that before the break.

Chisholm spent some time on the IL but has 17 home runs in just 65 games this year. Cruz only has 16 this year but strikes out a lot while his Statcast data is off the charts, so perhaps his stuff will play up in the derby setting. Rooker hit 30 home runs in 2023, 39 last year and is up to 20 already this year. Caminero and Wood are each playing a full major league season for the first time. Caminero has 23 home runs and Wood 24.

Here are two polls for MLBTR readers, the first asking who you want to win the derby and the second asking who you think will win.

Photo courtesy of Kevin Jairaj, Imagn Images