MLBTR Originals

Earlier tonight, we took a look at hitters whose clubs will soon have to decide whether to exercise their options for 2020. We’ll do the same here with pitchers…

Starters

• Chris Archer, Pirates ($9MM club option or $1.75MM buyout): Archer has undoubtedly been a major letdown for the Pirates since they sent Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz to the Rays for him in July 2018. Nevertheless, it’s difficult to envision the Pirates turning down Archer’s option this offseason. Even for a low-budget club, it’s worth gambling on to see if Archer puts up any kind of a rebound year in 2020.
• Kendall Graveman, Cubs ($3MM club option): The Cubs signed Graveman, a former Athletic, last offseason knowing he probably wouldn’t pitch in 2019 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Graveman did indeed wind up sitting out the entire season, and now the Cubs have to decide whether he has progressed enough behind the scenes to justify a $3MM guarantee for next year.
• Corey Kluber, Indians ($17.5MM club option or $1MM buyout): Even though Kluber just went through an injury-ravaged season in which he didn’t pitch past May 1, and even though his option for 2020 is rich, the Indians plan to exercise it. Understandable on their part, as the soon-to-be 34-year-old Kluber’s a two-time Cy Young winner who was a force as recently as last season.
• Martin Perez, Twins ($7MM club option or $500K buyout): During the first half of the season, when Perez looked like one of the steals of last winter’s free-agent class, it appeared he was well on his way to having his option exercised. But the 28-year-old Perez’s bubble burst as the season advanced, making his option decision trickier for the Twins. He seems like a decent bet to return to the market after logging a 5.12 ERA/4.66 FIP over 165 1/3 innings this season.
• Jose Quintana, Cubs ($11.5MM club option or $1MM buyout): Although Quintana hasn’t provided the type of production the Cubs were probably expecting when they acquired him from the crosstown rival White Sox in July 2017, the North Siders still figure to keep the lefty in the fold for 2020. The 30-year-old Quintana’s coming off a 171-inning season in which he notched a 4.68 ERA (with a far better 3.80 FIP) and 8.0 K/9 against 2.42 BB/9.
• Julio Teheran, Braves ($12MM club option or $1MM buyout): This could be an agonizing call for the Braves, who’ve seen the 28-year-old Teheran post mostly strong bottom-line production (and eat plenty of innings) since his first full season in 2013. At the same time, the fact that Teheran’s ERA indicators have consistently fallen short of his actual run prevention, not to mention that he’s coming off a second consecutive high-walk season, could influence the Braves to go in another direction. They did leave him off the initial version of their NLDS roster this month.
• Jason Vargas, Phillies ($8MM club option or $2MM buyout): The 36-year-old Vargas’ output fell flat after the Phillies acquired him from the Mets over the summer. He’ll likely don a different uniform in 2020 as a result.

Relievers

• Tony Barnette, Cubs ($3MM club option): The Cubs will go in another direction here, as Barnette barely pitched this year on account of injuries and personal issues.
• Jared Hughes, Phillies ($3MM club option or $250K buyout): The grounder-heavy Hughes, 34, is probably bound for free agency after an unspectacular season divided between two teams. He didn’t survive the year with the Reds, who parted with him in August, and then joined the Phillies via waivers.
• Nate Jones, Rangers ($5.15MM club option or $1.25MM buyout): Injuries have laid waste to the once-great Jones’ career, having limited the righty to 30 or fewer innings in five of the past six seasons. He threw just 10 1/3 frames in 2019, and though Texas picked up Jones from the White Sox at the trade deadline, the Rangers may buy him out before he ever throws a pitch in their uniform. TR Sullivan of MLB.com suggested that would be the case at the time of the trade, though the team’s official plans in regards to Jones still aren’t known.
• Shawn Kelley, Rangers ($2.5MM club option or $250K buyout): This is hardly a bank-breaking sum, though Kelley didn’t do himself any favors by floundering over the final two months of the season. The 35-year-old ended 2019 with a 4.94 ERA/5.52 FIP, 8.18 K/9, 2.09 BB/9 and a paltry 29.3 percent groundball rate over 47 1/3 innings. If the Rangers don’t bring Kelley back for next season, he has said he’ll retire.
• Brandon Morrow, Cubs ($12MM vesting option or $3MM buyout): The Cubs obviously won’t be picking up Morrow’s option after the 35-year-old suffered through yet another injury-plagued season in 2019. The formerly dominant Morrow hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors since July 15, 2018.
• Pat Neshek, Phillies ($7MM club option or $750K buyout): This should be an easy buyout for the Phillies, as the 39-year-old Neshek struggled through his second injury-shortened season in a row in 2019. Neshek underwent right hamstring surgery a month ago.
• Dan Otero, Indians ($1.5MM club option or $100K buyout): The Indians are moving on from the once-effective Otero, who’s fresh off back-to-back seasons of dismal production.
• Yusmeiro Petit, Athletics ($5.5MM buyout or $1MM buyout): After Petit’s third straight high-inning, low-ERA, low-walk season (and second in Oakland), you’d think the A’s would bring him back for another reasonably priced season. To this point, though, there hasn’t been any official word on whether Petit will be an Athletic for his age-35 season in 2020.
• David Phelps, Cubs ($5MM club option): MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored the Cubs’ looming decision in regards to Phelps. At the time (mid-September), Phelps was seven appearances away from totaling 40 on the year and boosting the value of his option from $3MM to $5MM. The 33-year-old, whom the Cubs acquired from the Blue Jays at the deadline, ultimately got to 41. Phelps recorded a solid 3.41 ERA with 9.44 K/9 in that 34 1/3-inning span, though he also walked 4.46 per nine and saw his velocity, groundball percentage and swinging-strike rate trend downward in his return from 2018 Tommy John surgery. His future could be a tough call for Chicago.
• Adam Warren, Padres ($2.5MM club option or $500K buyout): The Padres seem likely to reject Warren’s option. Not only did the 32-year-old disappoint over the season’s first few months, but he didn’t pitch after June 7 on account of a forearm injury.
• Jake Diekman, Athletics ($5.75MM mutual option or $500K buyout): This could be too steep a price for the low-budget Athletics, with whom Diekman’s already shaky control spiraled after the A’s got him from the Royals in July. The hard-throwing 32-year-old walked 16 batters in 20 1/3 innings as an Athletic.
• Sean Doolittle, Nationals ($6.5MM club option or $500K buyout): Doolittle just closed out the Dodgers to help deliver a long-awaited playoff series victory for the Nationals. Although Doolittle didn’t have a banner regular season before that, he still looks worthy of a $6.5MM investment for 2020.
• Wade LeBlanc, Mariners ($5MM club option or $450K buyout): LeBlanc’s likely done in Seattle, having stumbled to a 5.71 ERA/5.49 FIP over 121 1/3 innings this year.
• Aaron Loup, Padres ($2MM club option): Loup dealt with elbow issues nearly all season and didn’t take a major league mound after April 7. A buyout’s probably on its way.

The Twins’ outstanding 2019 campaign just ended Monday, though they’re already set to address one important piece of offseason business: They plan to exercise star designated hitter Nelson Cruz’s $12MM option for 2020. That was something of a no-brainer move for the Twins, with whom the ageless Cruz thrived in 2019, but several other teams with club option choices to make in the coming weeks could have harder times with their decisions. With the offseason now underway for most teams, let’s take a look at the rest of the hitters who have club options for next year…

Catchers

• Welington Castillo, White Sox ($8MM club option or $500K buyout):  The White Sox will turn this down in the wake of a rough season for Castillo, who hit .209/.267/.417 with minus-1.0 fWAR in 251 plate appearances. Thanks in part to Castillo’s struggles, he took a backseat to fellow backstop James McCann, who’s the front-runner to serve as the White Sox’s No. 1 option behind the plate for the second year in a row in 2020.
• Tyler Flowers, Braves ($6MM club option or $2MM buyout): While Flowers was less effective this season than he was over the past few, bringing him back for what amounts to $4MM for the Braves doesn’t seem unpalatable (especially with Brian McCann facing an uncertain future). The soon-to-be 34-year-old Flowers batted .229/.319/.413 in 310 PA this year, which looks weak but is actually passable for a catcher. He also continued to earn high marks behind the plate.
• Yan Gomes, Nationals ($9MM club option or $1MM buyout): The 32-year-old Gomes had a rough regular season, hitting .223/.316/.389 in 358 trips to the plate, but his production did turn around in the second half. However, Kurt Suzuki – not Gomes – has been the Nationals’ preferred choice in their playoff matchups against the Brewers and Dodgers. Suzuki’s still under control for next season for a reasonable $6MM, so the Nats could feel comfortable cutting the cord on Gomes and using the $8MM they’d save to address other areas.

First Basemen

• Matt Adams, Nationals ($4MM mutual option or $1MM buyout): Adams stands out as another likely buyout for the Nationals, with whom he hit a woeful .226/.276/.465 across 333 PA during the regular season. The 31-year-old has taken just one at-bat in the playoffs for the club.
• Edwin Encarnacion, Yankees ($20MM club option or $5MM buyout): The soon-to-be 37-year-old is more of a DH than a first baseman, which makes it seem all the more likely the Yankees will let him go into free agency. While the prolific masher has once again been productive in 2019, New York has no shortage of other players it could utilize in the DH spot a year from now.
• Anthony Rizzo, Cubs ($16.5MM club option or $2MM buyout): An easy yes for the Cubs, for whom the franchise icon continued to stand out in 2019.
• Eric Thames, Brewers ($7.5MM club option or $1MM buyout): Very iffy. Thames, who will turn 33 next month, is coming off a respectable offensive season (.247/.346/.505 with 25 home runs in 459 PA). That said, the left-hander’s output dropped off as the year went on, and he did little to no damage against same-handed pitchers. The Brewers aren’t exactly a huge-budget club, so they could decide to allocate Thames’ money elsewhere in 2020.
• Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals ($18MM club option or $2MM buyout): Hey, look, another National! Despite Zimmerman’s heroics in the NLDS, they’ll certainly buy out the fading 35-year-old.

Second Basemen

• Starlin Castro, Marlins ($16MM club option or $1MM buyout): Castro rebounded from a horrid start as the year progressed, but that won’t be enough to keep him in a Marlins uniform for another season (at least not at an exorbitant cost). He’s a clear-cut buyout candidate.
• Wilmer Flores, Diamondbacks ($6MM club option or $500K buyout): Six million dollars may be a lot for a team like the Diamondbacks to spend on a part-time player whose main purpose is to hit southpaws, though Flores did make a solid case to remain in the desert next year. The ex-Met slashed .317/.361/.487 with a minuscule 10.9 percent strikeout rate over 285 trips to the plate.
• Jedd Gyorko, Dodgers ($13MM club option or $1MM buyout): The Dodgers will buy out Gyorko after a year in which he batted a mere .174/.248/.250 in an injury-limited, 101-PA campaign divided between LA and St. Louis.
• Jason Kipnis, Indians ($16.5MM club option or $2.5MM buyout): We already know the Indians intend to buy out Kipnis.

Shortstops

• Freddy Galvis, Reds ($5.5MM club option or $1MM buyout): Let’s lean toward a buyout here. Galvis is a useful player, but his ceiling isn’t especially high, and this is a position at which the Reds could stand to make an improvement (Didi Gregorius, anyone?) during what’s setting up as an active offseason for the playoff-hungry franchise.

Third Basemen

• Mike Moustakas, Brewers ($11MM mutual option or $3MM buyout): The Brewers would welcome Moustakas back for $11MM in 2020, but he’ll have other ideas. Moose is almost a shoo-in to head back to free agency for the third straight winter after yet another quality season.

Outfielders

• Kole Calhoun, Angels ($14MM club option or $1MM buyout): If not for the presence of rising prospect Jo Adell, it would be easier to imagine the Angels paying Calhoun $14MM next year. Calhoun’s coming off his latest above-average season as a defender and hitter, after all. However, the Angels – with needs in their pitching staff and elsewhere – seem likely to cut the cord, save $13MM and plug in Brian Goodwin as their main right fielder until Adell’s ready for a promotion.
• Adam Eaton, Nationals ($9.5MM club option or $1.5MM buyout): This ought to be a yes for the Nationals, as the always solid Eaton turned in a .279/.365/.428 line with 15 homers, 15 steals and 2.3 fWAR over 656 regular-season PA. He’ll play his age-31 season in 2020.
• Alex Gordon, Royals ($23MM mutual option or $4MM buyout): Gordon’s not making $23MM next year, but if he does keep playing, the career-long Royal has insisted it’s Royals or bust. Likewise, KC general manager Dayton Moore has indicated he’d love to retain Gordon. The two sides will work out a more team-friendly salary if Gordon does return for what would be his age-36 season.
• Billy Hamilton, Braves ($7.5MM mutual option or $1MM buyout): The fleet-of-foot defensive maven will go to free agency after yet another season of weak production at the plate.
• Juan Lagares, Mets ($9.5MM club option or $500K buyout): The Mets will be happy to get the once-promising Lagares off their books after an uninspiring age-30 showing.
• Nick Markakis, Braves ($6MM club option or $2MM buyout): This may not be a slam-dunk choice either way for the Braves. Markakis is far from the most exciting corner outfielder, but at least you know what you’re going to get (durability, high on-base percentage, few strikeouts and the ability to play him versus righties and lefties alike). For what amounts to a $4MM decision, the Braves could certainly do worse.
• Starling Marte, Pirates ($11.5MM club option or $2MM buyout): Marte, whose 31st birthday is today, remains eminently valuable. The Pirates won’t have a tough time picking up his option, then. The question is whether they’ll trade him during the offseason.

Houston’s currently fighting for its life against Tampa Bay in the ALDS, but regardless of whether the Astros advance, they could be a few weeks away from losing one of their most valuable players to free agency. Right-handed ace and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is on the cusp of reaching the open market, where his forthcoming contract figures to easily outdo the majority of his competitors’ next deals. In fact, the lone soon-to-be free agent who’s likely to wind up in Cole’s stratosphere is Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon. Both players are lining up for contracts in the $200MM range, which seems like an especially risky number for a pitcher. But how have those investments on pitchers worked out thus far? Let’s take a look at the few $200MM-plus guarantees given out to hurlers, keeping in mind that past successes or failures obviously do not determine whether Cole will thrive or fall flat once he receives his mega-contract…

David Price, LHP, Red Sox (seven years, $217MM)

• Still the owner of the richest deal ever for a pitcher, Price hasn’t continued as an ace since he signed with the Red Sox entering the 2016 season. At that point, Price was a world-class run stopper who’d already logged five seasons with at least 200 innings. The Boston version has hit the 200 mark just once, though, and has put up a 3.84 ERA/3.74 FIP with 9.32 K/9 and 2.39 BB/9 across 588 frames. On paper, that production’s absolutely fine, but the Red Sox probably expected more when they splurged on Price almost a half-decade ago. Of course, thanks in part to Price, the Red Sox won the World Series a year ago. Flags fly forever.

Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers (seven years, $215MM)

• Admittedly, it’s debatable whether we should count this deal. After all, Kershaw essentially opted out of it last offseason (when he had two years and $65MM left on the pact) in favor of a three-year, $93MM contract to stick with the Dodgers. No matter, Kershaw has been nothing short of outstanding since signing. Therefore, even if the eight-time All-Star and three-time NL Cy Young winner would have stayed with his previous contract, the Dodgers certainly wouldn’t have buyer’s remorse.

Max Scherzer, RHP, Nationals (seven years, $210MM)

• Speaking of not regretting a $200MM-plus investment on a pitcher … we arrive at the Nationals, who are surely thrilled with the free-agent gamble they took on the ex-Tiger Scherzer going into 2016. Scherzer, who has been an All-Star every year and won a pair of NL Cy Youngs since then, remains among the game’s most imposing hurlers to this day. The 35-year-old’s fresh off yet another tremendous (albeit injury-limited) regular season and has been a key figure in what could be a stunning first-round playoff upset of the juggernaut Dodgers.

Zack Greinke, RHP, Astros (six years, $206.5MM)

• Arizona poured its financial resources into Greinke entering 2016, though the headline-stealing addition didn’t quite pay off the way the club hoped. But that’s not a knock on Greinke, who excelled as a D-back. The team’s payroll just couldn’t support his ongoing presence, so it dealt Greinke to the Astros at this summer’s trade deadline. The 35-year-old, however, has enjoyed the latest terrific season of his career between the two organizations. Greinke’s $200MM-plus payday may not have been the most responsible move for an Arizona franchise that’s not a huge spender, but his production has been worthy of it.

If the above group shows us anything, it’s that no pitcher in the $200MM club has flopped (some have been great). That doesn’t mean Cole will follow in their footsteps if he scores a similar contract, but it’s hard to bet against a dominant, flamethrowing workhorse who still has another season in his 20s to come.

There are multiple ways to evaluate the performance of hitters in Major League Baseball. You can go by the traditional back-of-the-baseball-card statistics, FanGraphs metrics or even the newfangled Statcast numbers we’ve seen pop up over the past couple years. For the purpose of this piece, we’ll go Statcast style to take a look at the hitters who are scheduled to be available in the upcoming offseason’s free-agent class. Here are the standouts at each position when it comes to expected weighted on-base average and average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls (data courtesy of Baseball Savant)…

Catchers:

Expected weighted on-base average

1. Yasmani Grandal .362 (real wOBA: .365)
2. Jason Castro .362 (.331)
3. Alex Avila .352 (.327)
4. Travis d’Arnaud .328 (.318)
5. Stephen Vogt .326 (.336)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

1.  Chris Iannetta 97.2 mph
2. Alex Avila 96.6
3. Jason Castro 96.5
4. Welington Castillo 96.2
5. Travis d’Arnaud 93.6

First basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

1. Howie Kendrick .418 (.405)
2. David Freese .378 (.420)
3. Justin Smoak .367 (.327)
4. Kendrys Morales .366 (.265)
5. Jose Abreu .361 (.349)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

1. Lucas Duda 96.4 mph
2. Jose Abreu 96.1
3. Mitch Moreland 95.8
4. Matt Adams 95.6 (will become free agent if Nationals choose $1MM buyout over $4MM option)
5. Howie Kendrick 94.4

Second basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

1. Howie Kendrick .418 (.405)
2. Brian Dozier .329 (.333)
3. Brock Holt .315 (.336)
4. Jason Kipnis .312 (.305)
5. Ben Zobrist .310 (.305)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

1.  Howie Kendrick 94.4 mph
2. Jonathan Schoop 93.5
3. Eduardo Nunez/Chris Owings 93.1
4. Brian Dozier 92.9
5. Logan Forsythe 92.8

Shortstops:

Expected weighted on-base average

1. Jordy Mercer .320 (.318)
2. Adeiny Hechavarria .296 (.316)
3. Didi Gregorius .291 (.302)
4. Jose Iglesias .287 (.309)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

1.  Adeiny Hechavarria 92.8 mph
2. Jordy Mercer 92.2
3. Didi Gregorius 91.8
4. Jose Iglesias 87.5

Third basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

1.  Anthony Rendon .413 (.418)
2. Josh Donaldson .386 (.382)
3. Mike Moustakas .345 (.353)
4. Pablo Sandoval .337 (.341)
5. Logan Forsythe .320 (.301)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

1. Josh Donaldson 98.1
2. Jung Ho Kang 97.1
3. Pablo Sandoval 95.2
4. Mike Moustakas 93.8
5. Anthony Rendon 93.5

Outfielders:

Expected weighted on-base average

1. Marcell Ozuna .379 (.340)
2. Nicholas Castellanos .362 (.360)
3. Hunter Pence .358 (.382)
4. Matt Joyce .355 (.375)
5. Avisail Garcia .344 (.338)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

1.  Marcell Ozuna 96.3 mph
2. Hunter Pence 95.4
3. Avisail Garcia 95.2
4. Kole Calhoun 95.0 (Angels can buy Calhoun out for $1MM or exercise a $14MM option)
5. Yasiel Puig 94.2

Major League Baseball’s postseason is in full swing at the moment, and though watching multiple must-win games per day has been exhilarating, it unfortunately won’t go on for much longer. We’re just a few weeks away from the end of the season and the start of free agency, where several teams in need of upgrades will shop in hopes of either staying a playoff team in 2020 or perhaps becoming one.

As always, free agency will present starter-needy clubs the chance to address their rotations. In the case of the upcoming winter’s class of unsigned pitchers, it’s no secret Astros right-hander and AL Cy Young candidate Gerrit Cole is hands down the No. 1 option. He has a realistic chance at a $200MM contract once his marvelous year ends. Beyond Cole, there are several No. 2/3 type of starters with possibly some diamonds in the rough thereafter.

Here’s a look at the upcoming group based on 2019 velocity as well as missing bats, limiting walks, keeping the ball on the ground and minimizing hard contact. All of those skills will weigh on front offices’ minds as they debate whether to dole out contracts to any of the available hurlers (special thanks to FanGraphs for providing the data and for giving the user the ability to create customized leaderboards)…

Hardest Throwers (FanGraphs leaderboard)

League average = 92.7 mph

1. Gerrit Cole: 97.2 mph
2. Zack Wheeler: 96.7
3. Andrew Cashner: 93.6*
4. Edwin Jackson: 93.4*
5. Kyle Gibson: 93.3
6. Matt Harvey: 93.2
7. Homer Bailey/Michael Wacha*: 93.0
8. Jake Odorizzi: 92.9
9. Michael Pineda: 92.6
10. Ivan Nova: 92.4

*This excludes bullpen work from Cashner, Jackson and Wacha.

Top Strikeout Arms (FanGraphs leaderboard)

League average = 22.3%

1.  Gerrit Cole: 39.9 K%, 13.82 K/9
2. Rich Hill: 29.8 K%, 11.05 K/9
3. Jake Odorizzi: 27.1 K%, 10.08 K/9
4. Drew Smyly: 24.2 K%, 9.64 K/9*
5. Madison Bumgarner: 24.1 K%, 8.8 K/9
6. Zack Wheeler: 23.6 K%, 8.98 K/9
7. Michael Pineda: 23.3 K%, 8.63 K/9
8. Cole Hamels: 23.2 K%, 9.08 K/9
9. Hyun-Jin Ryu: 22.5 K%, 8.03 K/9
10. Kyle Gibson: 22.4 K%, 8.84 K/9

*This excludes Smyly’s bullpen work.

Fewest Walks (FanGraphs leaderboard)

League average = 7.7%

1. Hyun-Jin Ryu: 3.3 BB%, 1.18 BB/9
2. Michael Pineda: 4.7 BB%, 1.73 BB/9
3. Madison Bumgarner: 5.1 BB%, 1.86 BB/9
4. Ivan Nova: 5.8 BB%, 2.26 BB/9
5. Gerrit Cole: 5.9 BB%, 2.03 BB/9
6. Alex Wood: 5.9 BB%, 2.27 BB/9
7. Rick Porcello: 5.9 BB%, 2.32 BB/9
8. Zack Wheeler: 6.0 BB%, 2.3 BB/9
9. Brett Anderson: 6.6 BB%, 2.51 BB/9
10. Tanner Roark: 7.1 BB%, 2.78 BB/9

Best Groundball Rates (FanGraphs leaderboard)

League average = 42.7%

1. Dallas Keuchel: 60.1%
2. Brett Anderson: 54.5%
3. Kyle Gibson: 51.4%
4. Tyson Ross: 51.3%
5. Hyun-Jin Ryu: 50.4%
6. Andrew Cashner: 50.0%
7. Wade Miley: 49.7%
8. Rich Hill: 49.6%
9. Adam Wainwright: 48.8%
10. Felix Hernandez: 48.1%

Least Hard Contact (FanGraphs leaderboard)

League average = 38.4%

1.  Zack Wheeler: 31.4%
2. Ivan Nova: 33.1%
3. Gio Gonzalez: 33.5%
4. Gerrit Cole: 33.9%
5. Hyun-Jin Ryu/Rick Porcello: 34.2%
6. Andrew Cashner: 35.6%
7. Wade Miley: 36.1%
8. Cole Hamels: 36.4%
9. Dallas Keuchel: 36.8%
10. Kyle Gibson: 36.9%

This is a new version of a Steve Adams post that ran Sept. 25, 2017.