How Good Was Dante Bichette?
Before he became the third-most-famous dad of a Toronto Blue Jays starting infielder, Dante Bichette held a similar title in a different barbershop quartet: the Blake Street Bombers. In both groups, Bichette fits comfortably in the George Harrison role as the love-able third cog, the character actor capable of carrying a film (say, as the 3-hole hitter), but nonetheless of tertiary relevance after two obviously-more-famous counterparts (Craig Biggio and Vlad Guerrero, Paul and John, Larry Walker and Andres Galarraga). Along with Vinny Castilla (who rightly-or-wrongly has fallen into the Ringo role in the Blake Street Bombers), Bichette helped the Rockies to their first playoff appearance in franchise history (1995) and became an indelible part of Colorado baseball history.
Bichette wasn’t destined for stardom, necessarily. He capitalized with a case of perfect time, perfect place (emphasis on place, as Coors Field in ’95 wasn’t a bad place to take your home hacks). 1995 wasn’t Bichette’s first season as a productive regular, nor was it his best by WAR, but it was his loudest: .340/.364/.620 while leading the league with 40 home runs and 128 RBIs.
It was a feel-good story for both Bichette and the Rockies, the former of whom had found belated stardom at the age of 31, and for the latter, as the organization enjoyed its first taste of success as an MLB franchise. Don Baylor‘s club didn’t set the world aflame, but they did scratch out a 77-67 record, good enough to capture the newly instituted Wild Card slot to make the National League playoffs. The Rockies would fall to the Braves in four games and fail to reach the playoffs for a second time in the era of the Blake Street Bombers, however. They would not return to the playoffs until capturing the Wild Card in 2007, long after Bichette’s departure following the 1999 season.
As for Bichette, 1995 wasn’t all that anomalous. He would make the All-Star team and earn MVP votes in four out of five seasons from 1994 to 1999 (including a second-place finish in ’95). Over that five-year stretch, Bichette had an overall slash line of .320/.352/.542 while slugging 146 of his 274 career home runs. All of the above considering, and Bichette looks like a classic short-peak superstar, maybe even worthy of consideration for the colloquial hall-of-very-good.
But the story changes when you get a look at his Wins Above Replacement totals. For his career, Bichette amassed a surprisingly meager total of just 5.7 bWAR across 14 seasons. There were 18 position players with at least 5.7 bWAR in 2019 alone. By measure of fWAR, Bichette was slightly better, putting up a total 8.9 fWAR. In other words, he wasn’t very good? Frankly, it’s difficult to view Bichette’s WAR totals in context. His era brings no measure of complications, but we’d normally worry about that era from an inflation standpoint. Looking at his fellow Bombers, Castilla managed 19.4 bWAR, which matches more closely to his standing in the baseball zeitgeist. Galarraga’s numbers are lower than what one might expect for the Big Cat (31.7 bWAR), but they still point to a solid career. Larry Walker was the best of the Colorado bunch, putting up a Hall-worthy 72.7 bWAR, for which he was finally inducted into the Hall of Fame this year.
Of course, nobody was looking at Wins Above Replacement when Bichette was a player. Given his offensive output, it’s still not surprising he made four All-Star teams. His career WAR numbers actually undersell his peak abilities as a player, largely because his overall numbers were hampered by three seasons of negative bWAR, including a disastrous -2.3 bWAR/-2.1 fWAR campaign in his final season with the Rockies in 1999. Bichette’s offensive output was down that season, but it still wasn’t bad: .298/.354/.541 with 34 home runs and 133 RBIs. That hardly looks like a -2.3 WAR season – and yet – it was (the MLB average slash line that season was .267/.338/.417).
Needless to say, Bichette was not a standout defender or baserunner. He was clocked for -34 runs from fielding that season along with -5 runs from baserunning per baseball-reference. He somehow made 13 errors as a left fielder that year (while also collecting 17 outfield assists). The last time an outfielder committed double-digit error totals was Ian Desmond in 2016 with the Rangers, his first season in the outfield as a converted shortstop. It’s not so surprising, then, that Bichette’s offensive numbers don’t buoy the other parts of his game to better bloat those WAR totals. Had Bichette played in the American League where he could have been utilized as a designated hitter, perhaps his career numbers would have a slightly different shape than they do now. Of course, the same could be said for if he’s played his peak seasons for a different franchise.
Regardless, Bichette found a time and a place to make an impact on the game. Plus, his contribution continues in the form of his son, Bo Bichette, who put up 2.3 bWAR as a 21-year-old for the Blue Jays last year. Bo looks astoundingly like his father even down to the haircut, but he brings a more well-rounded game to Toronto’s infield. At this rate, Bo will eclipse his dad’s bWAR total before the midpoint of his age-23 season.
Revisiting The Nats’ “Steal” Of A Deal
Back in the 2013-14 offseason, the Tigers were looking to move a veteran starter … but not because they were in a rebuild. The club had taken three consecutive AL Central titles (and would add another in the ensuing campaign).
The issue was quite the opposite: with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello, Anibal Sanchez, and Drew Smyly all on the staff, the Detroit organization felt it had depth to spare. Looking ahead at the cost to retain the team’s stars — they ultimately failed to reach a deal with Scherzer but inked a monster extension with Miguel Cabrera later that offseason — the decision was made to trim some costs where possible and bring back some long-range talent.
Meanwhile, the Nationals were in search of a quality arm to plug into would land Fister in a swap that sent a largely underwhelming three-player package back to the Tigers. Utilityman Steve Lombardozzi and lefty reliever Ian Krol were each young players with MLB experience but little in the way of apparent ceiling. The Tigers hoped that they’d be affordable contributors, but neither carved out a career in Detroit. The most interesting long-term piece was a notable but not overly heralded lefty pitching prospect by the name of Robbie Ray.
This wasn’t quite how the Tigers wanted talks to play out. The club reportedly wanted a different young hurler to headline the deal: Taylor Jordan, who had emerged out of obscurity in 2013. Jordan utilized his decidedly Fister-esque skillset to compile 51 2/3 innings of 3.66 ERA work in 2013, averaging just 5.1 K/9 but limiting the walks (1.9 BB/9) and homers (0.52 HR/9) while generating lots of groundballs (57.5%). It seemed Jordan might well be a long-term rotation piece, even if it was unlikely he’d ever really dominate.
Ray, a 22-year-old former 12th-round pick, hadn’t yet reached the highest level of the minors, let alone the bigs. But he was perhaps a higher-ceiling young hurler than Jordan. In 2013, Ray worked to a 3.68 cumulative ERA over 142 frames at the High-A and Double-A levels while racking up 10.1 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9.
For good reason, the Nationals were widely lauded for their acquisition. I characterized the deal as a value-laden, well-timed strike. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs said the Nats had paid “a shockingly low price, considering that Fister is one of the game’s most underrated pitchers.” While anything but flashy, the tall right-hander had a nice track record of high-quality rotation work — over 800 frames of 3.53 ERA ball — and came with two seasons of remaining arbitration control. The thievery metaphor was popular, beginning with the title of Cameron’s post. Plenty of people termed the swap a “steal,” especially after Fister turned in an outstanding 2014 campaign.
There’s no discounting Fister’s excellence in his first year in D.C. Though he missed some action, he still managed to spin 164 innings of 2.41 ERA ball. But as it turned out, that would be the last truly productive campaign of his career. Fister struggled with a lat injury at the start of the ensuing campaign and never really got going. He did manage a useful 4.19 ERA in 103 frames in 2015, so it was hardly a minimal contribution, but the peripherals didn’t support the results and the output didn’t account for his final arbitration salary of $11.4MM. Any thoughts of recouping draft compensation by issuing a qualifying offer went right out the window.
On the other side of the swap … well, the Tigers didn’t quite get what they hoped for either, but they only had their own ensuing actions to blame. After watching Ray struggle in a brief 2014 debut, Detroit ended up sending him out in a memorable three-team trade that really didn’t work out for the Motown side. That deal, which also cost the Tigers a decent infield prospect in Domingo Leyba, returned righty Shane Greene. While he had his moments in Detroit, they came after he transitioned to a relief role. Greene was swapped out last summer. The arrangement would have gone better had the Tigers simply taken shortstop Didi Gregorius, who ended up with the Yankees.
By that point, Ray was ready for a full test at the MLB level. He turned in a very strong debut in 2015. And while the results have taken a bit of a rollercoaster ride since, he has produced huge strikeout numbers and generally fared well in the eyes of advanced metrics. Ray has contributed 762 innings of 3.96 ERA ball in Arizona while racking up 11.3 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9. The long ball has been an issue, but it hasn’t stopped him from compiling 10 rWAR and a dozen fWAR — well over twice what Fister ended up providing to the Nats (4.5 rWAR / 1.7 fWAR) — in advance of his final season of arbitration eligibility.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Do The Nats Have Yet Another High-Quality Starter On Their Hands?
The trio of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin is enough to make almost any club enviable — not necessarily of the price tags but of their raw abilities on the mound. When the Nats added Anibal Sanchez to that bunch on the heels of a resurgent 2018 season, it almost seemed as though it didn’t even matter who the fifth starter was. With Strasburg re-upping on what was briefly a record deal at this year’s Winter Meetings, that same thought might’ve crossed the minds of some. And while it’s true that the Nats’ rotation will be stacked with or without a decent fifth starter, they might have a better option on their hands than most realize.
Austin Voth is already 27 years old (28 in June) and only pitched 43 2/3 innings for the Nationals in 2019. He and fellow righty Joe Ross were set to battle it out for the final rotation spot in camp this spring, and while I was personally all aboard the Ross train back in 2015-16, it’s Voth who now looks like the breakout candidate in the making.
A former fifth-round pick of the Nationals (2013), Voth isn’t exactly new to their rotation radar. Back in 2016, he spent his age-24 season in Triple-A and spun 157 innings off 3.15 ERA ball with 7.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9, a 49.7 percent ground-ball rate and near-identical marks in FIP (3.53) and xFIP (3.55). He wasn’t ranked among baseball’s elite prospects, but he was a strong Triple-A performer with a decent draft pedigree who looked ready for a big league rotation chance.
The 2017 Nationals, though, had Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark in their top four rotation spots. Ross had posted a 3.52 ERA and 3.46 FIP in 35 games across the two preceding seasons. With no immediate room in the rotation, Voth headed to the minors and looked like he’d be the first line of defense in the event of an injury. But when Ross went down with a torn UCL, Voth was in the midst of a catastrophically bad season in Syracuse. Through his first 13 starts, he’d pitched to a ghastly 6.38 ERA before going down with an injury himself. He never recovered his footing upon returning and finished the season with a 5.94 ERA. He rebounded with respectable showings in Triple-A in 2018-19, but he never appeared to recapture that 2016 form… until he got his first extended run in the big leagues last year.
In 43 2/3 frames last season, Voth worked to a 3.30 ERA with 44 strikeouts against 11 unintentional walks. His 92.8 mph average fastball was up 1.4 mph over the velocity he’d shown in a briefer 2018 cup of coffee, and Voth leaned heavily on a wipeout curveball to complement that improved heater. Voth induced chases outside the zone at a healthy 31 percent clip and recorded a 12.7 percent swinging-strike rate. His curve, which sits in the 90th percentile among MLB hooks in terms of spin rate, came with a gaudy 20.9 percent whiff rate. Opponents hit .176/.222/.265 when they put the pitch in play, and the .207/.295/.424 slash against Voth’s fastball wasn’t much better.
Not only was Voth adept at creating swings and misses — he also induced plenty of hapless contact. His 29.2 percent opponents’ hard-hit rate, per Statcast, was the 41st-best mark of the 558 pitchers who had 50-plus balls put into play against them last year. Opponents hit 47 fly-balls against Voth in 2019, and 10 of them were infield flies — effectively automatic outs. Voth’s .276 xwOBA ranked 55th in the game (min. 150 plate appearances against), placing him directly alongside the likes of Luis Castillo (.277), Walker Buehler (.275) and Chris Paddack (.275). That’s pretty nice company for a 27-year-old rookie-eligible hurler to keep after posting a combined ERA over 4.00 in the prior three Triple-A seasons.
Voth was off to a fine start this spring prior to the shutdown, tossing seven innings and allowing just one run with six strikeouts and one walk allowed. He obviously needs to prove that he’s capable of sustaining this type of output over a sample greater than last year’s eight starts (and one relief outing), but Voth showed the type of promise in 2019 that his chief rotation competitor, Ross, hasn’t flashed since prior to Tommy John surgery. That’s not to disparage Ross, who was very clearly on a fast-rising upward trajectory prior to getting injured and could yet recapture some of that form. But if the Nats were to choose one starter to plug into the rotation based on recent performance, Voth’s 2019 had the makings of not just a serviceable fifth starter but perhaps yet another high-quality arm on which the club can lean.
That’s certainly the hope for the Nationals organization, as an affordable rotation cog to slot alongside the massive salaries of their top three starters would certainly help with long-term payroll flexibility. (Sanchez is controllable for 2021 via club option.) Voth has yet to accrue even a full year of service, meaning he’s controlled all the way through 2025 and won’t even reach arbitration until the 2022-23 offseason.
Both Voth and Ross are out of minor league options, so they’ll almost certainly both make the roster if play is able to resume in 2020. And with a shortened season likely to feature fewer off-days and plenty of doubleheaders, perhaps they’ll each be afforded some opportunities to start games. If you’re taking a longer-term look at the Nationals’ starting staff or scouring the NL for breakout candidates, though, Voth’s strong showing in 2019 has placed him squarely in the mix.
Revisiting Dave Stewart’s D-backs Trades
Dave Stewart’s transition from agent to Diamondbacks general manager was both brief and frenetic. Not afraid to make moves that bucked industry trends, Stewart’s regime aggressively moved young talent for veterans, seemingly placed a lower value on draft picks than other clubs and made what proved to be a pair of high-profile missteps on the international market as they set out on a clear win-now path.
In 2016, the Diamondbacks marketed an “evolutionary” year for the franchise following an offseason that was headlined by their stunning signing of Zack Greinke to a six-year, $206.5MM deal. That 2016 campaign did prove to be a major turning point for the organization, although surely not in the manner the front office had hoped; Arizona finished out the year with a 69-93 record that led to a swift front office overhaul and the dismissal of manager Chip Hale.
Here’s a look back at the two years of hectic wheeling and dealing under the watch of Stewart, Tony La Russa and De Jon Watson…
2014-15 Offseason
- Acquired RHP Jeremy Hellickson from the Rays in exchange for OF Justin Williams and SS Andrew Velazquez
- Acquired LHP Robbie Ray and 2B/SS Domingo Leyba from the Tigers in a three-team trade that sent SS Didi Gregorius from D-backs to Yankees and RHP Shane Greene from Yankees to Tigers
- Acquired RHPs Zack Godley and Jeferson Mejia from the Cubs in exchange for C Miguel Montero
- Acquired RHPs Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster and INF Raymel Flores from the Red Sox in exchange for LHP Wade Miley
- Acquired RHP Myles Smith from the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Zeke Spruill
- Acquired OFs Josh Elander and Victor Reyes and cash from the Braves in exchange for RHP Trevor Cahill and a Competitive Balance Round B pick (announced as two separate deals on April 2 and April 6, as competitive balance picks couldn’t technically be swapped until after Opening Day)
2015 Season
- Acquired C Welington Castillo, RHP Dominic Leone, OF Gabby Guerrero and INF Jack Reinheimer from the Mariners in exchange for 1B/OF Mark Trumbo and LHP Vidal Nuno
- Acquired SS Phil Gosselin from the Braves in exchange for RHP Touki Toussaint and RHP Bronson Arroyo (the Braves effectively purchased Toussaint by taking on the remainder of the injured Arroyo’s contract)
- Acquired SS Dawel Lugo from the Blue Jays in exchange for INF Cliff Pennington
- Acquired LHP Junior Garcia from the Astros in exchange for LHP Oliver Perez
- Acquired RHPs Matt Koch and Miller Diaz from the Mets in exchange for RHP Addison Reed
2015-16 Offseason
- Acquired C/OF Chris Herrmann from the Twins in exchange for OF Daniel Palka
- Acquired RHP Sam McWilliams from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Jeremy Hellickson
- Acquired RHP Shelby Miller and LHP Gabe Speier from the Braves in exchange for SS Dansby Swanson, OF Ender Inciarte and RHP Aaron Blair
- Acquired SS Jean Segura and RHP Tyler Wagner from the Brewers in exchange for RHP Chase Anderson, 2B Aaron Hill, 2B Isan Diaz and $5.5MM
2016 Season
- Acquired INF Luis Alejandro Basabe and RHP Jose Almonte from the Red Sox in exchange for Brad Ziegler
- Acquired RHP Vicente Campos from the Yankees in exchange for RHP Tyler Clippard
- Acquired OF Jason Heinrich from the Orioles in exchange for OF Michael Bourn
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How would you grade Stewart’s swaps as general manager in Arizona? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users.)
Grade Dave Stewart's trades as D-backs GM:
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D 34% (2,291)
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C 30% (2,026)
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F 23% (1,549)
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B 12% (818)
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A 2% (143)
Total votes: 6,827
Curious to look back on additional GMs and their trade histories?
We’ve already polled on Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies GM Matt Klentak, Padres GM A.J. Preller, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, Rays GM Erik Neander, ex-Red Sox front office leader Dave Dombrowski, Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen, Reds GM Dick Williams and Orioles GM Mike Elias.
Mike Elias’ First Year Of Trades
It’s obviously way too soon to judge Orioles GM Mike Elias on his handling of a much-needed Baltimore rebuilding effort. He has only been on the job since November of 2018 and didn’t exactly inherit a slate of players that offered ample opportunity to wheel and deal. Most of the GMs we’ve profiled to date in our GM Trade History series have been on the job at least three times as long as Elias. Still, we can take a look at his initial trade history to glean some initial impressions …
2019-20 Offseason
- Acquired RHPs Isaac Mattson, Zach Peek, Kyle Bradish and Kyle Brnovich from Angels for RHP Dylan Bundy
- Acquired LHP Easton Lucas from Marlins for INF Jonathan Villar
2019 Season
- Acquired OF Elio Prado and INF Noelberth Romero from Red Sox for RHP Andrew Cashner
- Acquired RHP Asher Wojciechowski from Indians for cash
- Acquired OF Keon Broxton from Mets for international bonus availability
- Acquired RHP Tyler Herb from Giants for OF Mike Yastrzemski
2018-19 Offseason
- Acquired OF Dwight Smith Jr. from Blue Jays for international bonus availability
- Acquired RHP Pedro Araujo from Cubs for international bonus availability
- Acquired RHP Xavier Moore from Twins for international bonus availability
- Acquired RHP David Lebron from Rangers for international bonus availability
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It’s not even quite time for a midterm report card, but we’ll ask anyway: how do you grade Elias’s trades to this early point? (Poll link for app users.)
Grade Mike Elias's trades with Orioles:
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C 40% (1,608)
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B 22% (877)
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D 22% (857)
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F 10% (401)
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A 6% (235)
Total votes: 3,978
Curious to look back on additional GMs and their trade histories? We’ve already polled on Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies GM Matt Klentak, Padres GM A.J. Preller, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, Rays GM Erik Neander, ex-Red Sox front office leader Dave Dombrowski, Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen, and Reds GM Dick Williams.
MLBTR Poll: The Royals’ Timeline
We all know the tale of the Royals’ recent run of glory … the team reared a group of top prospects, mixed in some bold trades, ramped up its payroll a bit and came home with a crown in 2015. It still took a series of upsets and surprising events to get to the promised land, but there’s no disputing the validity of the title. Overcoming tall odds only makes the achievement more impressive.
Some manner of rebuilding was obviously going to be required at some point. There’s a strong case to be made that the Kansas City organization should’ve pivoted more forcefully rather than overseeing two consecutive middling seasons after the parade — if not in the 2016-17 offseason, then at the 2017 trade deadline. Still, it’s understandable that the club did not wish to squander any chance at competing with its existing core.
When it finally came time to bid adieu to Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain (and eventually Mike Moustakas), the Royals gained some draft picks as compensation. The organization made clear its intentions with the ensuing 2018 draft, when it used its top five picks on collegiate pitchers. As GM Dayton Moore explained: “We wanted to make a concerted effort on getting some college pitching that we felt had high ceilings, and that could move quickly.”
In the time since, the Royals have steadfastly refused to cash in excellent veteran Whit Merrifield for prospects. There was even talk last year that the organization might pursue an opportunity to challenge for a postseason spot, though that quickly faded and the organization logged its second consecutive hundred-loss campaign.
The just-completed offseason wasn’t exactly a win-now effort. The team did add veteran players — going for another round with Alex Gordon while taking low-risk chances on Maikel Franco, Jesse Hahn, Trevor Rosenthal, and Greg Holland are hardly the — but more in the way that most rebuilding outfits do. But it also again bypassed chances to trade Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, perhaps Brad Keller … even backstop Salvador Perez (though he’s returning from a season lost to injury).
If the Royals think it’s worth holding onto players like those, it must be that they see a path to somewhat near-term contention. Clearly, the aim of the K.C. brass is to bounce back into contention sooner than later, rather than overseeing a half-decade-long retrenchment. There’s hope for a wave of talent. That 2018 draft class has thus far worked out as well as could’ve been hoped, with Brady Singer and Daniel Lynch rated as top-100 leaguewide prospects and fellow hurlers Jackson Kowar, Kris Bubic, and Jonathan Bowlan all considered future talents of note. And 2019 first-rounder Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as one of the game’s elite prospects; while he’s further away from the bigs, he could fly through the system. There are a few bats not far from the bigs … Nick Pratto, Khalil Lee, and Kyle Isbel among them.
The overall group of talent doesn’t exactly leap off the page. Farm-wide rankings mostly see the K.C. farm within range of average: Baseball Prospectus (12); MLB.com (17); Baseball America (18); Fangraphs (26). This isn’t a repeat of the legendary system of yore, but the Royals have a number of promising players. They’ll need that farm to yield a lot of big-league ability over the next few years if they’re to return to glory.
What’s your take on the team’s timeline back to contention? (What does “contention” mean? That’s up to you to define, but it surely includes some realistic chance of reaching the postseason.) (Poll link for app users.)
When Will The Royals Return To Contention?
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Beyond 29% (1,305)
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2022 26% (1,184)
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2023 24% (1,096)
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2024 11% (513)
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2021 8% (361)
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2020 1% (65)
Total votes: 4,524
The Cardinals’ Blocked Prospects
The Cardinals haven’t had a losing record since 2007. Despite a recent playoff “drought” — a three-year stretch from 2016-18 that only qualifies as such by the St. Louis organization’s lofty standards — the Cards have run out a solid roster on an annual basis. Riding a blend of productive veterans, high-end prospects who emerge as key contributors and what seems like an out-of-nowhere success story or two every year (we see you, Tommy Edman), the Cardinals have established themselves among MLB’s more consistent franchises.
And while their strong track record in player development allows them to continually filter up quality young players to complement the veterans on the roster, it also inevitably leaves some talented players on the outside looking in. Because they’ve been able to develop so many quality youngsters, the Cards simply don’t have the space to play them all. (That’s a partial driver behind the outfield carousel they’ve experienced in recent years — though certainly not the only factor.)
Just look at some of the young players the Cardinals have traded away prior to 2019 while still managing to field competitive rosters:
- Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver — traded to D-backs in the Paul Goldschmidt deal
- Tommy Pham — traded to Rays in return for Genesis Cabrera, Justin Williams and Roel Ramirez
- Oscar Mercado — traded to the Indians in exchange for Conner Capel and Jhon Torres
- Luke Voit — traded to the Yankees in the deal that brought Giovanny Gallegos to St. Louis
- Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen — traded to the Marlins in the Marcell Ozuna deal
- Marco Gonzales — traded to the Mariners in return for Tyler O’Neill
- Randal Grichuk — traded to the Blue Jays in return for Dominic Leone and Conner Greene
That’s nine big league regulars/rotation pieces shipped out — in some cases, for disappointing returns — without causing the final on-field product to dip below .500. It’s a testament to the Cardinals’ amateur scouting and player development staffs that they’re so regularly deep with talent that they’re able to ship it off for veterans, potential areas of need or larger quantities of further-off talent. Certainly, not all of those swaps have worked out — Mercado or Pham would look nice in the outfield right now — but the Cardinals have rarely come up completely empty-handed on a deal.
Trades of this nature have become the norm for the Cards, and it’s likely that will continue to be the case. With Yadier Molina reportedly talking extension prior to the shutdown and Paul Goldschmidt signed five more years, for instance, the Cards look to have a pair of roadblocks to some more young talent. The outfield, too, has more names than playing time available. It seems likely that we’ll see more young players change hands as a result in the next calendar year, so let’s run through some possibilities.
Catcher
If a Molina extension does indeed come together, that doesn’t leave much of a path to regular playing time for 25-year-old Andrew Knizner — a fairly well-regarded backstop whose bat looks close to big league ready. In 83 games and 341 plate appearances in Triple-A, Knizner is a .283/.362/.453 hitter with an 8.2 percent walk rate and just a 13.1 percent strikeout rate. Scouting reports on Knizner question his receiving and framing skills, but he notched a 42 percent caught-stealing rate with Triple-A Memphis in 2019.
If Knizner does indeed change hands following a Molina extension — the Cards brought Matt Wieters back to serve as his backup again — then perhaps 19-year-old Ivan Herrera will emerge as the true heir-apparent to Molina and his Hall of Fame legacy.
First Base
Luken Baker isn’t an elite prospect — few first-base-only prospects are considered as such — but FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen put a 70 grade on his raw power in this year’s scouting report on the hulking 6’4″, 265-pound slugger in the making. Baker hasn’t tapped into that power just yet, though he spent the 2019 season in a pitcher-friendly Florida State League (Class-A Advanced). He’s managed his strikeouts to this point (21.6 percent) and also walked in 10.5 percent of his plate appearances. With Goldschmidt entrenched at first base through 2024, there’s no hope of Baker emerging as a regular in the near future, which seemingly puts him on a similar track to Voit.
Elsewhere on the roster, 27-year-old Rangel Ravelo (28 later this month) is out of minor league options and limited to a bench role. A career .293/.369/.452 hitter in 1652 Triple-A plate appearances who also slashed .310/.385/.473 in 649 Double-A plate appearances, Ravelo has done enough in the minors to suggest that he could hit in the big leagues. He’s played a little corner outfield, so perhaps the Cards view him as a replacement for the recently traded Jose Martinez. However, it’s possible that another club could view him as a potential late-blooming regular at first base.
The Outfield
The Dexter Fowler signing clearly hasn’t panned out as hoped, but the switch-hitting veteran’s five-year, $82.5MM deal runs through the 2021 season. Had the 2019 campaign been as much of a struggle as his 2018 season, he’d perhaps be a release candidate, but Fowler’s bat bounced back to roughly league-average levels last year (103 wRC+, 98 OPS+), and his contract should grant him a decent leash.
Harrison Bader was one of the game’s best defenders in center (14 Defensive Runs Saved, 12.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, 13 Outs Above Average), so he’s probably locked into center field despite a rough sophomore showing at the dish (.205/.314/.366).
Left field was to be determined in camp, with the likes of Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Justin Williams and waiver claim Austin Dean vying for playing time. Carlson ranks among baseball’s elite overall prospects and should be installed as a regular at some point in 2020 (assuming a season is played). Even in the unlikely event that the club quickly moves on from Fowler, there’d be O’Neill, Thomas and Williams left to compete for that theoretical spot.
O’Neill was a ballyhooed prospect himself when acquired from Seattle, and though strikeouts have been an issue, he’s a passable corner defender with light-tower power and a history of drawing walks in the upper minors. Thomas can play a solid center field and owns a career .270/.342/.472 slash through 444 plate appearances in Triple-A. Williams is a corner bat who draws good marks for his raw power. He’s yet to show off that power in the minors, but FanGraphs points to his high-end exit velocity as a source of optimism if he can add more lift to his swing.
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Most organizations would love to have the “more talent than playing time” issue on the big league roster — and you certainly won’t head president of baseball ops John Mozeliak or GM Mike Girsch complain about the reality. But that duo and the rest of the Cards’ front office figure to continue to find creative ways to deal with those surpluses, and it shouldn’t come as a big surprise if some of the above names finally get their chance at playing time in another organization,
These Players Can Exit Their Contracts After 2020
No matter if a Major League Baseball season takes place in 2020, there are certain players who will be in position to decide whether to exit their current contracts next winter. Whether it be by way of an opt-out clause or a mutual option, here’s a look at the players who will be able to choose to take their chances in free agency…
Opt-Outs
Back when the Marlins extended outfielder Giancarlo Stanton on a historic pact worth $325MM over 13 years in 2014, they included a one-time opt-out for next winter. Stanton has put up at least one phenomenal season since he signed that deal – he won the NL MVP and hit 59 home runs in 2017 – but injuries have hampered him on a regular basis. He’s now a member of the Yankees, who acquired him in a December 2017 deal, but Stanton played in just 18 games last season. He’ll still be owed $218MM for seven years after this season, and for at least the time being, it’s very tough to think of Stanton leaving that money on the table to test free agency.
Designated hitter J.D. Martinez, a member of the Yankees’ archrival in Boston, will have two years and $38.75MM remaining on his contract after this season. He’ll be 33 then, and will continue to be someone who’s known as a defensive liability, so should be opt out? It’s up for debate. The big-hitting Martinez remains an offensive standout, but his production last season fell (granted, he did still slash .304/.383/.557 with 36 home runs in 657 plate appearances). He subsequently chose not to opt out after last season, as doing so would have cost him his $23.75MM salary for this year.
One of Martinez’s former Tigers teammates, outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, will also have to choose whether to revisit free agency next offseason. Castellanos is another defensively challenged slugger, one whom the Reds guaranteed $64MM over four years this past winter. He’ll be 29 by the time the 2021 season rolls around, and by saying goodbye to his Reds pact, he’d be leaving $48MM on the table (including a $2MM buyout in 2024). It’s not easy to determine whether that will happen; some of it depends on how well Castellanos fares in 2020, if a season occurs. Carrying over the tremendous production he posted late last season after the Cubs acquired him from the Tigers may make Castellanos more inclined to try his luck on the market again, but his output at the plate has been more good than great throughout his career.
Mutual Options
For the most part, mutual options don’t get picked up. Either a player’s so effective that he opts for free agency or he’s not useful enough for his team to exercise the option. Rockies first baseman Daniel Murphy and reliever Wade Davis are among those who have mutual option decisions waiting after the season, but they’ve struggled in the club’s uniform so far. With that in mind, Murphy’s on track for a $6MM buyout (as opposed to a $12MM salary), while Davis figures to receive a $1MM buyout instead of a $15MM payday.
Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun ($15MM mutual option, $4MM buyout), Diamondbacks right-hander Mike Leake ($18MM mutual option, $5MM buyout) and Cubs lefty Jon Lester ($25MM mutual option, $10MM buyout) could also find themselves looking for new contracts next winter. The same goes for Mets reliever Dellin Betances, though it’s tougher to say in his case. The former Yankee barely pitched at all season on account of injuries, and if there isn’t a season in 2020, would he turn down a guaranteed $6MM in 2021? And would the Mets buy him out for $3MM? That’s one of the many interesting questions we could face next offseason.
How The Angels Discovered Mike Trout
This article by Chuck Wasserstrom was originally published in 2017. For all the entries in Chuck’s Inside the Draft Room series for MLBTR, click here.
The way things are shaping up, the 2009 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim draft would have to be considered a good one even if the 25th pick belonged to somebody else. When three starting pitchers (including two southpaws) and a power-hitting position player reach and produce at the major league level, it makes for a nice haul.
The team’s first selection, Randal Grichuk, is now a starting outfielder for the Cardinals – and is coming off a 24-homer season as a 24-year-old.
Supplemental first-rounders Tyler Skaggs and Garrett Richards were members of the Angels’ season-opening starting rotation. Second-round pick Patrick Corbin is the Diamondbacks’ No. 2 starter.
[Editor’s note: More recently, Grichuk was a regular in the Blue Jays’ outfield, Richards is penciled in as a key member of the Padres’ rotation, and Corbin excelled in his first season with the Nationals. Skaggs tragically passed away in July last year.]
But then, of course, there is the matter of the Angels having the 25th pick that year. And you can very easily picture Commissioner Bud Selig walking to the podium and making his announcement: “With the 25th selection in the first round of the 2009 First-Year Player Draft, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim select Michael Trout.”
“I’ve never seen a team walk out of a draft and think they had a bad draft,” said Eddie Bane, the Angels’ scouting director from 2004-2010 and now a special assignment scout for the Boston Red Sox. “Everybody thinks that their draft was the greatest of all-time every year. Sure, we were guilty of the same thing. I don’t know if guilty is the right word; you just love scouting so much that you think the players you picked are just awesome. That’s the way it works. You think you’re going to help stack the organization; that’s the way everybody thinks. But we actually did. It’s kind of a rarity.”
In 2008, the Angels won a major league-best 100 games and went to the postseason for the fifth time in seven years.
Success on the field was mirrored by the Angels’ frequent forays into free agency, which directly impacted the team’s amateur draft capabilities. Over their previous five drafts, the team gave up seven high-round picks as free agent compensation, losing either a first- or second-round pick every year.
The 2009 draft, from that standpoint, was no different; the Angels surrendered their own No. 1 (No. 32 overall) as compensation for the signing of free agent closer Brian Fuentes.
However, the Angels lost several key players to free agency – closer Francisco Rodriguez (to the Mets), first baseman Mark Teixeira (to the Yankees) and starting pitcher Jon Garland (to the Diamondbacks). Lo and behold, the team had a glut of high-round picks – back-to-back at 24-25, followed swiftly by supplemental selections at 40, 42 and 48.
(Have you forgotten how the old Type A/Type B free agent compensation system worked? Take a trip down memory lane.)
“I started with the Angels in 2004, and we had a pick at 12 and got Jered Weaver. But other than that, we never had anything in the first 25 because we were pretty good and we were more in the shopping business,” said Bane – a no-nonsense, tell-it-like-it-is type whose previous Angels drafts included the selection of future big leaguers Weaver, Nick Adenhart, Mark Trumbo, Peter Bourjos, Hank Conger, Jordan Walden, Tyler Chatwood and Will Smith. “We never thought once about not having a really high pick; that was normal. So we were really excited because we had five picks. We thought that was awesome.”
If you recall, 2009 was the “Year of Strasburg.” The chances of Stephen Strasburg getting past Washington and falling all the way to No. 2 in the draft were largely nonexistent.
“I saw him pitch one time for about 2.0 innings and said, ‘This is a waste of time,’” Bane recalled. “I told the area scout to just make sure he does a good job on Strasburg’s makeup and everything else. You don’t spend a lot of time on Stephen Strasburg when you’re picking 24-25.”
Bane started ruling out others he knew would be gone by the middle of the first round and started focusing on players who he thought could be there for him. One player he was immediately drawn to was a prep outfielder out of Lamar Consolidated High School in Rosenberg, Texas, named Randal Grichuk.
“Jeff Malinoff, one of my national cross-checkers who was as good of a hitting scouting guy as there’s ever been … he loved Randal, as did Kevin Ham, the area scout,” Bane said. “Randal could hit his home runs a long way to right-center and left-center. Obvious power. Good athlete. All that stuff. We thought there would be a chance that he would get there.
“It’s hard to describe to people the excitement you get when you see somebody that not every scout loves, and you see the passion they have for the game, and you file that away. I still remember batting practice; I was there with Jeff, and Randal was hitting rockets out to right-center. With Randal, the body has improved with maturity, but it’s not dramatically different than he was in high school. He was a strong, good athlete that could go get a ball in centerfield. His arm was fine. To me, he looked like a lock first rounder. That’s when you start thinking immediately, ‘Well, he won’t be there when we pick’ – because you think other teams see it exactly the way you do. Fortunately, they don’t.”
And then, of course, there was another prep outfielder that Bane locked in on – this one out of Millville Senior High School in New Jersey. Two MVP seasons and three MVP runner-up campaigns later, it’s still hard to believe that Mike Trout would be available that deep in the draft.
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Prospect Faceoff: Pick An Outfielder
We at MLBTR have been doing head-to-head comparisons of some of baseball’s elite prospects in recent weeks. Let’s keep it going with a pair of the minors’ top young outfielders, the Mariners’ Jarred Kelenic and the Braves’ Cristian Pache. The two would have been National League East rivals had the Mets not traded Kelenic (we’ve covered their 2018 blockbuster with the Mariners extensively of late; see: here, here and here), but it wasn’t to be. Kelenic now looks like a tremendous building block for the long-suffering Mariners, while Pache could amount to the latest homegrown Braves great.
Kelenic was the sixth overall pick in the 2018 draft, and there now seems to be an almost unanimous belief that he is the game’s 11th-best prospect. Each of MLB.com, Baseball America and FanGraphs place him in that position, after all. The power-hitting 20-year-old climbed to the Double-A level for the first time last season, his debut campaign in the Seattle organization, and batted .253/.315/.542 with six home runs in 92 plate appearances. Not necessarily extraordinary numbers on paper, nor was it a huge sample size, but that line was an impressive 33 percent better than the league average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. Speaking of FanGraphs, their own Eric Longenhagen wrote just two weeks ago of Kelenic, “He’s much more stick than glove, but Kelenic looks like an All-Star center fielder who’s rapidly approaching Seattle.” The upside’s definitely there for Kelenic, like fellow Mariners outfield prospect Julio Rodriguez, to help the Mariners escape the mire in the coming years.
Unlike the M’s, the Braves have enjoyed quite a bit of success in recent years. They’re back-to-back NL East champions who probably aren’t going away in the near future, considering the vast amount of talent they possess. And it appears to be only a matter of time before they get a look at Pache, who just turned 21 a few months ago and could someday join the amazing Ronald Acuna Jr. (and maybe fellow prospect Drew Waters) as an indispensable part of the Braves’ outfield. For now, the experts at Baseball America (No. 12), MLB.com (No. 13) and FanGraphs (No. 20) say Pache is among baseball’s 20 premier prospects. Pache was terrific last year in Double-A, where he hit .278/.340/.474 (134 wRC+) with 11 homers in 433 PA, but wasn’t quite as powerful in his initial taste of Triple-A action (.274/.337/.411 with a single HR over 105 PA). However, as Longenhagen suggested a couple months back, Pache won’t need to post all-world offensive numbers to make a notable impact in the bigs, as he possesses tremendous upside as a defender.
Kelenic and Pache could eventually turn into two of the top center fielders in the game, but their styles are different. Kelenic seems to be more of a force at the plate, while defense looks like Pache’s forte. Which one would you rather have? (Poll link for app users)
Choose a prospect
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Jarred Kelenic 54% (3,115)
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Cristian Pache 46% (2,698)
Total votes: 5,813



