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Free Agent Outlook: Marcell Ozuna

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With little in the way of hot stove news during the rising action of the MLB postseason, let’s take a look ahead to this winter’s free agency. In particular, we’ll be evaluating the market for a player who could prove to be one of the offseason’s more intriguing cases: Cardinals outfielder Marcell Ozuna.

After he was traded from the Marlins to St. Louis as part of the post-2017 fire sale in Miami, Ozuna has endured a pair of unspectacular seasons as a Cardinal. That’s not to say he’s been bad, but expectations were high after he slugged 37 home runs in his last season with the Marlins. His struggles in 2018, when he totaled only 23 round-trippers, can be at least partly be attributed to a nagging shoulder injury that plagued him throughout the year and ultimately required surgery. This year, with a healthy shoulder, he has enjoyed a nice uptick in his power numbers, though that has still only translated to a slightly above-average .804 OPS.

When the Cardinals postseason comes to a close, Ozuna will have a chance to hit the open market for the first time, reaching free agency as a 28-year-old outfielder. (He’ll play the 2020 campaign at age 29). That places him among the younger options from which teams will choose, making him arguably the most attractive of this offseason’s outfield class, which is a relatively thin one.

Ozuna, for his part, has expressed a desire to remain in St. Louis beyond this year, calling it a “priority” to ink a contract that will keep him with the Cardinals. However, the Cardinals may not share his enthusiasm for a reunion. John Mozeliak expressed hesitance to discuss an extension with Ozuna, instead opting to postpone that matter until the offseason. Other, cheaper options within the organization could replace Ozuna in the corner outfield, with Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson seemingly ready to contribute.

It seems like a good bet that the Cardinals will tender a qualifying offer to Ozuna, which figures to come in at around $18MM this offseason. That designation would force a signing team to forfeit a draft pick in order to acquire Ozuna’s services.

Many teams might not be convinced that Ozuna is capable of returning to the power numbers that he displayed on his way out of Miami. Still, there are promising signs: Ozuna ranks among baseball’s best in terms of exit velocity and hard-hit rate, both of which are at career-best marks. His expected statistics—which calculate the expected outcomes of batted balls based on exit velocity and launch angle—paint him as one of the premier offensive performers in baseball.

Another point of concern will be Ozuna’s defensive shortcomings. Although there’s a Gold Glove Award on his mantle, Ozuna has provided little value as an outfielder since departing Miami. He grades as below-average in Statcast’s outs above average and outfielder jump metrics—ranking in the 13th and 29th percentile, respectively. On the positive side, he is credited with 2 DRS, thanks in large part to a strong throwing arm. That’s not a bad mark at all, but teams may be hesitant to project that performance into his thirties as he seeks a multi-year deal.

Could Ozuna be a candidate to accept the qualifying offer? Sure, there’s a solid chance that he could eclipse the total value with a multi-year contract on the open market (though almost certainly at a lower AAV), but accepting the one-year deal could grant Ozuna’s wish to stay in St. Louis and attempt to rebuild his value, perhaps with an eye on a contract extension with the Cardinals or another chance at free agency following the 2020 season.

As we all well know, the free-agent landscape has been notoriously cruel over the last two years, and Ozuna feels like a player who could be strongly affected by the evolving market. As a bat-first left fielder nearing his thirties, teams might be reluctant to invest heavily in a profile that depends mostly on offensive production—which, generally speaking, has been underwhelming since Ozuna joined the Cardinals. If Ozuna and his reps get an inkling that his free-agent market may not be as expansive as they hoped, that could give another reason to regroup and return to the Cardinals under the qualifying offer.

However, the allure of a multi-year contract with a total guarantee exceeding that of the QO may be too much to resist for Ozuna, a first-time free agent in his prime years. Even if his most likely outcome is a two- or three-year deal with an AAV of about $13-16MM, Ozuna may not have another chance to test the open market as arguably the best player at his position. That alone might incline a team to overpay for him. Regardless, as we head towards another offseason of intrigue, Ozuna may be a name to follow in a free-agent class that lacks star-power position players.

Looking For A Match In A Mookie Betts Trade

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First of all, there’s more than a decent chance that Mookie Betts will still be a member of the 2020 Red Sox.  As per Sox president/CEO Sam Kennedy, the team’s intention to get payroll under the $208MM luxury tax threshold is a “goal but not a mandate,” so it isn’t as if the Red Sox are going into any sort of fire sale mode.  While it seems the club will trim some salaries, they could achieve a lot of those savings in other areas (i.e. other trades or non-tenders, or J.D. Martinez could opt out of his contract) before fully exploring the idea of trading the 2018 American League MVP.

This being said, it wouldn’t be much fun if this post was titled “Looking To Pour Cold Water On A Fascinating Trade Possibility.”  And, with Betts still firm in his intent to test the free agent market after the 2020 season, there’s certainly a chance he will be wearing another uniform anyway on Opening Day 2021.  For a Red Sox organization that is looking for a creative way to shed salary and reload its minor league system, trading Betts before his final year of team control is an option that should at least be on the table, if certainly not one to be taken lightly.

Mookie BettsBetts earned $10.5MM in 2018 after defeating the Red Sox in an arbitration case, and his epic MVP campaign saw his salary rise to $20MM in 2019.  After hitting .295/.391/.524 with 29 homers over 706 plate appearances last season, Betts is in line for another big raise in third and final trip through the arb process.  Matt Swartz will be publishing MLBTR’s official arbitration projections within a few weeks, though he has informed me that Betts is currently projected to earn $27.7 or $27.8MM for the 2020 season (depending on whether Betts’ base 2019 salary is increased by a bonus should he win a Gold Glove).

That number certainly looms large in any discussion of a Betts trade, given that several teams may balk at committing that much money to a single player (even a superstar like Betts) if they have luxury tax concerns of their own.  Plus, a team trading for Betts would have to be expecting to have him for one season at the most.  Betts has been so adamant in exploring free agency that it’s very unlikely that he pulls a Paul Goldschmidt and signs an extension with a new team rather than finally get a crack at the open market.

With only one year of Betts on offer, the Red Sox know that trading the outfielder won’t solve all their problems.  There’s no chance, for instance, of another payroll-clearing blockbuster like Boston’s legendary August 2012 trade with the Dodgers, since Betts lacks the long-term appeal that Adrian Gonzalez (the Dodgers’ primary target) held for Los Angeles.

Teams also aren’t going to clear out their farm systems for just one year of Betts, though Boston can reasonably assume to top what the Diamondbacks received from the Cardinals for Goldschmidt last December.  Betts is over five years younger than Goldschmidt and a more valuable defensive player, so the Red Sox will definitely aim for more than the already-impressive package the D’Backs received — a controllable young starter (Luke Weaver), a controllable young everyday catcher (Carson Kelly), a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2019 draft, and another prospect in infielder Andy Young, currently ranked by MLB.com as the 23rd-best Diamondbacks minor leaguer.  That said, Goldschmidt was also only making $14.5MM in salary in 2019, whereas Betts’ 2020 salary could be almost double that number.

Let’s go through the other 29 teams to see if we can find a fit as a Betts suitor…

No Chance

The Marlins, Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Mariners are all rebuilding.  And the Red Sox would never trade Betts to the arch-rival Yankees, as amusing as it would be to see New York somehow land another Boston superstar almost exactly 100 years after the Babe Ruth deal.

Probably Not

The Rockies don’t have much salary wiggle room to add an expensive player like Betts.  Likewise, payroll restraints will likely keep the Pirates and Diamondbacks out of the mix, though Arizona GM Mike Hazen knows Betts well from their time together in Boston.  The Brewers also likely face similar financial restraints, plus they don’t have much elite young talent to grab Boston’s interest.  The Rangers are another team without much in the way of blue-chip minor league talent, and while Texas is planning to spend more as the team moves into its new ballpark next season, longer-term acquisitions would seem to make more sense for the Rangers than a win-now move like acquiring Betts.  Likewise, the Giants are more apt to pursue a long-term option if they go after any premium players at all (i.e. their interest in Bryce Harper last winter).

I put the Cubs a tick above the other “probably not” teams because they’re under increasing pressure to win in 2020, and could potentially be open to some type of creative swap that could see Chicago and Boston shift around several of their undesirable contracts, in addition to sending Betts to Wrigleyville.  But there would seemingly be a lot of moving parts in such a deal, and the Cubs have their own set of luxury tax concerns.  Plus, while the Sox and Cubs have made a few minor trades since Theo Epstein took over the Cubs’ baseball operations department, one wonder if Red Sox management could be hesitant about sending a star player Epstein’s way.

Probably Not, AL Contenders Edition

The Red Sox wouldn’t have quite the same reservations about sending Betts to another AL rival as they would about putting him into the Yankee pinstripes, but moving him within the AL East to the Rays seems unrealistic.  The Sox probably also wouldn’t be too keen to further strengthen the Astros’ juggernaut lineup, though Houston is already facing something of a luxury tax crunch with its own crop of star players.  The Indians have taken steps to cut back spending over the last year and can quite likely be ruled out of a Betts pursuit, as much as Cleveland is still trying to keep its contention window open for as long as possible.

While neither the Twins or Athletics are big spenders, it’s possible either team could see a Betts trade as a unique opportunity that merits a one-year payroll spike.  Trading for Betts could be seen as a souped-up version of Minnesota’s strategy from the 2018-19 offseason, which making short-term acquisitions in lieu of major financial commitments.  Acquiring Betts would cost more than just money, of course, and it remains to be seen if the Twins or A’s would be open to giving up the minor leaguers necessary to pry him away from the Red Sox.

Makes Some Sense

I put both the Nationals and Cardinals leaning closer to the “probably not” category, though trading for Betts would be an eye-popping way for either team to reload if Anthony Rendon or Marcell Ozuna was lost in free agency.  Trading for Betts could be seen as a one-year stopgap for teams that are strongly trying to contend in 2020, and the Nats or Cards could then let him walk in free agency and pursue a longer-term star in the 2020-21 offseason (a pursuit that would likely include an attempt to re-sign Betts).  It’s rather doubtful that Washington would be eager to deal from a relatively thin farm system, however, while St. Louis may have used up most of its expendable but MLB-ready pieces in the Goldschmidt trade.

The White Sox flirted with the idea of adding a superstar to the ranks with their pursuit of Harper and Manny Machado last offseason, and while Betts would be a much shorter-term addition, it would certainly announce the end of Chicago’s rebuild in a major fashion.  If you’re wondering why the Pale Hose would look to add Betts for 2020 when they’re far more than just one player away from contention, the club has explored such a tactic in the past — the White Sox made an offer to the Orioles about acquiring Manny Machado in the 2017-18 offseason, when Machado was also a year away from free agency.

As incredible as it would be to see Betts and Mike Trout in the same outfield, the Angels probably aren’t willing to move top prospects for one year of Betts, especially given how GM Billy Eppler has worked hard to reload a once-barren farm system.  Still, the firing of manager Brad Ausmus hints at an increasing impatience within Angels ownership, and Eppler is also entering the last year of his contract, so I can’t entirely rule the Halos out as a potential dark horse.

The Braves and Dodgers each have the prospect depth to get Boston’s attention, though neither team is likely to swap much of its top talent for just one year of Betts since neither is exactly in outright “win-now” mode.  It could be argued that Los Angeles could be a bit closer to this category if the Dodgers fall short of another World Series, though the Dodgers have tended to save their biggest trades for the July 31 deadline (when they have a firmer idea of their needs) rather than the offseason.

The Win-Now Teams

Since Betts is only signed through 2020, his most logical trade matches are the teams who definitely want to contend next season, and could be most open to a bold deal to make a postseason berth happen.

As much as Phillies GM Matt Klentak has insisted that he is looking to build a sustainable contender, he’ll be expected to more immediately start bearing the fruits of the Phils’ rebuild process and the team’s splashy 2018-19 offseason.  Philadelphia’s 81-81 record has led to rumblings that manager Gabe Kapler could replaced, and another down year could also put Klentak’s own job security in question, though the general manager is signed through 2022.  The Phillies made big trades for J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura last winter, though whether they have enough young talent left (or at least enough they’re willing to part with) to acquire Betts remains to be seen.  Also, as much as Betts would upgrade the Phils’ middling offensive production, pitching would seem to be Philadelphia’s much more pressing need.

Perhaps no GM is under as much of a microscope as Padres general manager A.J. Preller, as executive chairman Ron Fowler is on record as saying that “heads will roll” in the organization if San Diego faces another “embarrassing” season.  Assuming that the Red Sox would be okay with making another big trade with the Padres in the wake of the controversial Drew Pomeranz swap in 2016, a Betts trade would be the kind of major transaction the Padres seemed to be on the verge of making all last offseason, but never completed despite talks about numerous star players with multiple teams.  Even if the Padres are more than one player away, the club’s highly-regarded minor league pipeline has so much depth that they could afford to spare a few pieces for Betts and still boast a top-five system.  Would a Betts trade be the wisest long-term move?  Not really, but after nine straight losing seasons, some type of step towards competitive baseball is definitely needed.

The Reds are a club in more pressing need of lineup help, and since president of baseball operations Dick Williams has set the playoffs as a firm goal for 2020, Betts could very well be a target.  Betts’ salary wouldn’t be as big an issue as it would seem for a smaller-market team since the Reds are also planning to spend more.  Though Williams has also hinted that the Reds are more apt to explore free agency rather than trades, these plans for an aggressive winter make Cincinnati seem like a solid bet to at least discuss a trade with the Red Sox.

The Mets further thinned out an already shallow farm system in their July trade for Marcus Stroman, and Betts’ salary could prove problematic for a team that has never been too eager to spend despite operating in the New York market.  That said, the Mets are firmly planning to contend next year, and GM Brodie Van Wagenen has already shown a penchant for headline-making trades in his first season on the job.  Betts would be such a clear and obvious solution to the Mets’ longstanding center field problem that, while it’s not exactly a “one player away” scenario for a team with so many bullpen questions, putting Betts alongside the likes of Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and J.D. Davis makes for an awfully scary lineup.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

MLBTR Poll: Edwin Encarnacion’s Option

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The Yankees continued their long-running October dominance of the Twins on Friday, earning a 10-4 victory en route to a 1-0 advantage in the teams’ American League Division Series matchup. Designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion factored into the Yankees’ blowout win, collecting two doubles and a run batted in across five at-bats. The accomplished Encarnacion obviously hopes to pick up his first World Series ring in the next few weeks, but no matter how the team’s season ends, the Yankees will soon face an interesting decision in regards to his future.

Encarnacion, whom the Yankees stunningly acquired from the Mariners back in June, slashed .249/.325/.531 with 13 home runs in 197 plate appearances after donning the pinstripes. Between the two teams, the 36-year-old concluded his regular season with a .244/.344/.531 line and 34 HRs over 456 trips to the plate. It’s all the more laudable that Encarnacion smacked 30-plus homers for the eighth straight year despite missing extended time with injuries (a fractured wrist and a strained oblique).

Youth isn’t on his side, but it’s clear Encarnacion is still a formidable presence at the plate. Nevertheless, he’s far from a lock to remain with the Yankees in 2020. They do control Encarnacion through next season, though retaining him would be costly. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman will have to choose whether to exercise Encarnacion’s $20MM club option or buy him out for $5MM. For all we know, Encarnacion will go on a postseason rampage in the next few weeks, but that doesn’t mean it’ll influence Cashman’s thinking. He did, after all, allow aging stars Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon to walk in free agency after the franchise’s most recent World Series title in 2009. Even Matsui’s MVP honors in the Fall Classic weren’t enough for the Yankees to re-sign him.

New York certainly has the financial might to keep Encarnacion around, but it also possesses several in-house options who could fill the DH role in a year. First basemen Luke Voit and Mike Ford figure to stay in the fold at league-minimum sums, while anyone in the Yankees’ outfield surplus could also see a fair amount of time at the spot. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks seem likely to return as the club’s top three outfielders in 2020, but Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman might also figure prominently into its plans. And the Yankees may choose to re-sign pending free agent Brett Gardner, quietly one of the most productive outfielders in franchise history, to remain a member of a crowded alignment in the grass.

Beyond the Yankees’ group of outfielders, let’s not forget about the presence of third baseman Miguel Andujar, who may be best served as a DH. Andujar thrived at the plate as a rookie in 2018 before missing almost all of this season because of a shoulder injury, but he was often maligned for his defense at the hot corner last year. With the emergence of low-cost replacement Gio Urshela at third this season, the Yankees could envision plenty of DH at-bats for Andujar in 2020.

Aside from Judge and Stanton, nobody from the abovementioned collection of names packs the punch Encarnacion does. However, the Yankees wouldn’t be unrealistic in expecting quality offensive production from any of them, and letting Encarnacion go would open up spending room elsewhere (Astros co-ace/potential $200MM free agent Gerrit Cole looks like a fit on paper, for example). As of now, what do you expect to happen with Encarnacion in the offseason?

(Poll link for app users)

Three Needs: San Diego Padres

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We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. Let’s check in on the Padres, who desperately need to make some tangible gains in the standings after finishing in the cellar for the third time in four years. This offseason will require a delicate balancing act, and a thoughtful reallocation of resources, but there are paths to contention.

[San Diego Padres Depth Chart]

1. Trade Kirby Yates … For A Big League Asset

The Padres aren’t fully in win-now position. Yet they possess a high-end closer who’s entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. They shouldn’t give away Yates unless there’s fair value coming back. And they ought not go searching for far-away, high-ceiling prospects at this stage of their rebuild.

But that doesn’t mean Yates shouldn’t be marketed. It’s worthy considering extension talks as well, a la Brad Hand, but Yates is already 32 years of age and just one season away from the open market. He’s already sure to pick up a big arbitration raise. That could make it hard to get a true bargain.

Instead, the best option may be to dangle Yates — who will be of keen interest to any number of clear contenders — in a search for a quality, MLB-ready position player or starting pitcher. The bottom line is that the the organization has a really nice asset that can be turned into another really nice asset that better suits its needs. That may be tough to pull off. But think a bit more creatively and you’ll start to see avenues. The Friars’ last big swap was a three-team affair, so that’s always a possibility. Perhaps the Pads can take on salary as part of the arrangement, possibly helping big-market teams trying to stay under the luxury tax line. And attaching some other prospect pieces would help boost the value … while also helping with another notable need …

2. End The Prospect Trials

It’s great to have lots of prospects, even when many of them are pressing for the bigs at about the same time. And perhaps it was sensible to rotate many of them through the majors in recent years, when the club wasn’t likely to contend and it was useful both to give them a taste and get a look. But the Padres can’t just keep trying things on; it’s time they pick an outfit and wear it with confidence.

The constant up-and-down, mix-and-match approach has begun moving towards a conclusion. The big summer swap resulted in the departures of Franmil Reyes and Logan Allen, two youthful players that were part of the churn. For better or worse, the Padres have made sizable commitments to some players (Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers). And emergent superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. is now ensconced at shortstop. The rotation seems to be coming into focus, with Chris Paddack joining Tatis as a potential centerpiece (and extension candidate).

In some ways, the difference here is subtle. It’s not just about how many plate appearances everyone gets — though, notably, a dozen players got more than 200 in 2019 while only two topped 500. That isn’t inherently concerning. It’s just a question of role and purpose. If the Friars want to set up a platoon, then do it. But shuffling through guys for a look and to see who sticks? It’s hard to do that and win. The focus must be on installing pieces that can, when deployed as intended, allow this team to top .500 for the first time since 2010. If they’re lacking, then they must be found, unless another losing campaign is deemed acceptable.

3. Work The Middle Market In Free Agency

Since taking over the San Diego front office in the fall of 2014, GM A.J. Preller has given out three whopping contracts that promised over $500MM in total. Otherwise, he has only twice gone over $4.5MM in a free agent deal: $8MM to Ian Kinsler and $18MM for Garrett Richards.

To an extent, you appreciate the concept of pursuing elite talent and filling in the gaps for cheap. But the broader market does offer some relatively low-risk, sometimes reasonably high-upside opportunities as well. For a team that needs to make rather significant strides just to get into the Wild Card picture — it’s tough to imagine the Dodgers being reeled in — there’s good cause to explore that segment.

Petco Park played very small this year. Perhaps that’ll make it easier to draw solid relief pitchers without having to promise them a worrisome number of years. There’s a good number of interesting, relatively youthful outfielders available, along with some veteran catching. It’d be much easier to take on a few reasonably hefty salaries now had it not been for the questionable decision to sign Hosmer, but the Friars can still plug in a few pieces without hamstringing future payroll too badly — at least, that is, if ownership is willing to approve a move past the $100MM mark in Opening Day payroll for the first time since the club snuck across that line in 2015.

Each NL Playoff Team’s Most Valuable Signing Of Last Offseason

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This is the second in a two-part series examining each playoff team’s most valuable free-agent signing of last offseason. We previously took a look at the American League, whose playoff qualifiers probably received more regular-season bang for their buck from their top signings than the NL’s five best teams did.

Dodgers: A.J. Pollock, OF (four years, $60MM)

  • We’ll start with a debatable case. The uber-rich Dodgers signed just two players to guaranteed deals last winter, when they landed Pollock and reliever Joe Kelly, and neither lived up to expectations during the regular season. But Pollock was probably the better of the two, as the ex-Diamondback hit .266/.327/.468 with 15 home runs in 342 plate appearances during yet another injury-limited campaign. Those are solid offensive numbers, though Pollock did have a rough time in the outfield, where the normally plus defender totaled minus-10 DRS and a minus-7.2 UZR. Although he and Kelly haven’t exactly thrived this year, it hasn’t stopped juggernaut LA from logging the NL’s top record or a 1-0 lead in its NLDS matchup against Washington

Braves: Josh Donaldson, 3B (one year, $23MM)

  • Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos elected to reunite with Donaldson, whom he know from their Toronto days, on a high-cost, short-term contract last offseason. Now, it’s fair to say Donaldson’s one of the main reasons the Braves won their division for the second year in a row. The 33-year-old recovered from two consecutive injury-marred seasons to hit .259/.379/.521 with 37 homers and 4.9 fWAR across 659 PA. As one of the top soon-to-be free agents in the game, Donaldson could leave Atlanta in the coming weeks via the open market (this time for far more money).

Cardinals: Andrew Miller, LHP (two years, $25MM)

  • The 34-year-old Miller wins this honor by default – he was the lone player the Cardinals added on a major league contract during the offseason, and none of their minors signings stood out at the MLB level. Miller wasn’t exactly stellar in his own right, though, as the former bullpen force mustered an unattractive 4.45 ERA/5.19 FIP in 54 2/3 innings. While Miller continued to fan hitters at a high rate, striking out 11.52 per nine, he somewhat offset that figure with his highest BB/9 (4.45) since 2013. Miller was also susceptible to the home run ball during the regular season, when he yielded a personal-worst 1.81 per nine, perhaps thanks in part to his lowest average fastball velocity in years (92.5 mph).

Nationals: Patrick Corbin, LHP (six years, $140MM)

  • Aside from the much-ballyhooed Bryce Harper–Manny Machado duo, no player received a bigger contract last offseason than Corbin. The ex-Diamondback enjoyed a career year in 2018, thus making a case for a massive payday, and he hasn’t disappointed since the Nationals gave him one. Corbin, 30, is fresh off an eminently successful regular season in which he recorded a 3.25 ERA/3.49 FIP with 10.6 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, a 49.5 percent groundball rate and 4.8 fWAR across 202 innings. He turned in another effective performance in Game 1 of the NLDS for the Nationals, holding the Dodgers to three hits and two runs (one earned) over six frames, though the Nats went on to lose.

Brewers: Yasmani Grandal, C (one year, $18.25MM)

  • Grandal, who starred with the Dodgers from 2015-18, fell into the Brewers’ laps last January after rejecting a far more lucrative offer from the Mets. It proved to be a major break for the Brewers, with whom Grandal posted yet another strong regular season. The 30-year-old switch-hitter slashed .246/.380/.468 with 5.2 fWAR and a career-high 28 home runs in 632 PA. At the same time, Grandal continued his long run as one of the game’s most well-regarded defensive backstops. Unfortunately for the Brewers, whom the Nats eliminated in the wild-card round, it seems likely Grandal’s days in their uniform are over. He figures to turn down his half of a $16MM mutual option for 2020 in favor of another stab at free agency, where he’ll easily rank as the most coveted catcher available. If a bidding war for Grandal’s services occurs, the Brewers probably aren’t going to win it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Each AL Playoff Team’s Most Valuable Signing Of Last Offseason

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This is the first in a two-part series examining each playoff team’s most valuable free-agent signing of last offseason. We’ll start in the American League, which featured three 100-win clubs during the regular campaign. Interestingly, none of those teams (or the other two AL playoff qualifiers) broke the bank on their top free-agent additions of 2019. In fact, the five barely combine for a guaranteed $100MM over the life of their contracts.

Astros: Michael Brantley, OF (two years, $32MM)

  • This was one of the richest contracts doled out last offseason, but it looks like a steal for the Astros halfway through. Brantley has long been a quality contributor in the majors, including in his final season with the Indians in 2018, but there was wariness over him after injuries wiped out the majority of his 2016-17 campaigns. But Brantley’s now coming off his second straight healthy regular season, in which he earned his fourth All-Star nod and slashed .311/.372/.503 with a personal-high 22 home runs and 4.2 fWAR in 637 plate appearances. Brantley logged a career-best .190 ISO in the process, though he didn’t sell out for more power at the expense of his strikeout rate. The 32-year-old fanned in a mere 10.4 percent of trips to the plate, continuing a career-long trend of avoiding strikeouts. Brantley was no slouch in the corner outfield either, posting eight Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-1.1 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Yankees: DJ LeMahieu, INF (two years, $24MM)

  • There was plenty of speculation linking the Yankees to free agent Manny Machado early last offseason. The deep-pocketed Yankees needed infield help, after all, and Machado was the premier player available in that area. In the end, though, New York didn’t aggressively pursue Machado, who wound up signing a 10-year, $300MM contract with the Padres. Rather, the Yankees took a much cheaper route to address their infield, adding the ex-Rockie LeMahieu on a short-term pact. It has worked out unbelievably well thus far for the Yankees, who received much better production from LeMahieu than the Padres got from Machado. After a regular season in which he saw significant action at three infield spots (first, second and third) and hit a career-high .327/.375/.518 with a personal-best 26 home runs and 5.4 fWAR across 655 PA, LeMahieu could get some AL MVP votes.

Twins: Nelson Cruz, DH (one year, $14.3MM)

  • Although he turned 39 years old during the summer, Cruz continued to prove that age is just a number (in his case at least). The longtime offensive force missed some time with injuries, yet he still led the Twins with 41 homers over 521 PA. That’s especially impressive considering Minnesota smashed an all-time record 307 dingers during a regular season in which the home run dominated MLB. Along with amassing 40-plus HRs for the fourth time in his career, Cruz notched a .311/.392/.639 line with 4.3 fWAR and trailed only MVP candidates Mike Trout, Christian Yelich and Alex Bregman in wRC+ (163). Whenever the Twins’ season ends, they’ll face a decision on whether to exercise a $12MM club option on Cruz for 2020. Picking it up for his age-40 season should be a no-brainer.

Rays: Charlie Morton, RHP (two years, $30MM):

  • Tampa Bay didn’t exactly splurge on Morton, a Houston hero over the previous couple seasons, but the deal the club gave him is extremely expensive by the low-budget Rays’ standards. It’s been a tremendous investment so far for the Rays, with whom the late-blooming Morton rode his fastball/curve combination to his best regular season yet. The 35-year-old racked up 194 2/3 innings of 3.05 ERA/2.81 FIP pitching with a jaw-dropping 11.1 K.9, 2.64 BB/9 and a 48.2 percent groundball rate. That production was especially beneficial to a Tampa Bay team that lost fellow front-line starters Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell for extended periods of time. And Morton, who finished sixth among all pitchers in fWAR (6.1), helped pitch the Rays to the ALDS with five innings of one-run ball in their wild-card win over the A’s.

Athletics: Brett Anderson, LHP (one year, $1.5MM):

  • By far the least expensive and least exciting player on this list, Anderson was among a couple offseason signings who turned in quality results for the low-payroll Athletics. But the A’s probably got more bang from their buck out of Anderson than anyone else they signed, as he posted a 3.89 ERA with a 54.5 percent groundball rate and 2.51 walks per nine over 176 innings. The rest of Anderson’s numbers were decidedly less encouraging, and it seems likely the now-eliminated Athletics will move on from him, but you can’t argue with the bottom-line production the 31-year-old offered in 2019 for such a low cost.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Astros and the Luxury Tax

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This week’s comments from Astros owner Jim Crane, wherein he expressed uncertainty about pursuing Gerrit Cole and stated a preference to remain south of the luxury tax, didn’t sit well with some of the team’s fans. Crane hardly issued a formal decree that Cole would sign elsewhere, but that’s long been the expectation based on Houston’s avoidance of doling out lengthy contracts to pitchers under the current regime. Rather, the Jeff Luhnow-led Astros have thrived at acquiring high-end pitching talent with multiple years of control while dodging the danger of six- and seven-year deals for pitchers.

Justin Verlander came to Houston with two years of club control remaining at a time when the Tigers desperately needed to shed money and replenish the farm. His subsequent extension the following year, while steep in annual value at $33MM, was only two years in length. Cole himself was acquired with two seasons of control remaining. This summer’s Zack Greinke trade was cut from the same cloth: pay up in young talent to add an elite arm without the inherent risk of committing six-plus years to said arm. Greinke is signed through 2021. In this regard (and many others), the Astros are the embodiment of the modern front office; pay a premium in annual value but eschew long-term commitments.

Recognizing that trend, the more interesting part of Crane’s comments was not that the Astros are unsure about pursuing a reunion with Cole but that the Astros prefer to remain under this year’s $208MM luxury barrier altogether. At first glance, that seems like an extraordinarily difficult task for the ’Stros to manage.

Based on the luxury tax calculations of our friend Jason Martinez at Roster Resource, Houston already has $165MM worth of salary counting against the luxury tax. Cot’s Contracts has them at $163MM. You might think that leaves about $43-45MM with which to work, but those estimates only include guaranteed contracts and estimated player benefits. They do not include the forthcoming raises for arbitration-eligible players, nor do they include the small but certainly not negligible chunk of money that’ll go to the pre-arbitration players on Houston’s 2020 roster.

The dilemma that’ll face the Astros this offseason becomes immediately apparent just by looking at their highest-profile arbitration case. George Springer earned $12MM in 2019 as part of a two-year, $24MM contract. That multi-year deal bought out Springer’s second and third arbitration seasons, but as a Super Two player, he’ll be eligible a fourth and final time this winter. I asked MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an early peek at Springer’s arbitration projection, and Matt kindly and quickly got back to me with a projection of a $6.9MM raise for Springer.

As Matt further pointed out, Springer’s reps could even try to argue that his “base” for that raise should be higher than $12MM. He’d have earned more than that in 2019 had he gone year-to-year rather than sign that two-year deal, as the Astros filed at $8.5MM in 2018 and Springer at $10.5MM. The two-year deal was a compromise, but his camp could push for the raise to be based off a salary more reflective of what he might’ve earned in a more traditional arbitration setting. For instance, while the two sides agreed that his Arb-2 and Arb-3 years were worth a total of $24MM, Springer’s side could say that his 2018 season was worth roughly $9.5MM (the midpoint between their filing numbers), meaning 2019 was worth more like $14.5MM. Building a raise off that number would obviously push his salary higher than simply giving him a raise off his 2019 rate of $12MM.

Digression aside: Springer could very well cost Houston in the neighborhood of $20MM next season. Meanwhile, Roberto Osuna will be in line for a raise on this year’s $6.5MM salary, as will Carlos Correa ($5MM), Brad Peacock ($3.11MM), Jake Marisnick ($2.19MM), Aledmys Diaz ($2MM) and Joe Biagini ($900K). Lance McCullers Jr. won’t earn a raise after missing 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, but players who miss an entire year due to injury typically repeat the prior salary they’d earned in arbitration. That’d be another $4.1MM for McCullers. Chris Devenski has a club option that’d add another $2.825MM to the ledger if exercised. We know Aaron Sanchez is trending toward a non-tender thanks to his ill-timed shoulder procedure, but that does little to assuage the Astros’ mounting tax bill.

The Astros, as currently constructed, look to be a surefire luxury tax payor. It’s not just that signing an elite free agent would put them narrowly over the top; rather, doing so would send the Astros crashing through that ceiling and likely catapult them into the second tier of penalization by placing them more than $20MM over the initial threshold. If the goal is to avoid the tax entirely, the focus should be more on the current roster rather than any potential free agents.

So, what can the Astros do if the really are aiming to avoid penalization? They’ll be tasked with moving some existing contracts and perhaps be pushed into some additional non-tenders (or trades of lower-end arbitration-eligible assets). Josh Reddick and his four-year, $52MM contract come with a $13MM luxury hit. The Astros have an MLB-ready heir in right field with Kyle Tucker emerging late in 2019, so moving Reddick makes sense. It’d be difficult, however, for the Astros to find a taker without offsetting some of that salary — either by including cash in the deal or taking another (smaller) contract back in return. That’s a start, but it’s not going to do the job on its own.

How about Yuli Gurriel? He’s signed only through the 2020 season, and his $47.5MM contract comes with a $9.5MM annual luxury hit. He’ll turn 36 next June as well, so while he had a terrific 2019 season, it’s worth wondering whether this could’ve been his peak year. There’s also Osuna, who is only controlled through 2021 and could see his arbitration salary spike north of $10MM next year. The Astros have already locked in Ryan Pressly’s salaries thanks to his spring extension, so they’ll have a late-game replacement should they shop Osuna.

Looking at the team’s list of arbitration-eligible players, it’s arguable that Houston doesn’t need to pay upwards of $4MM for a fourth outfielder such as Marisnick. Trading him would pare things back a bit further.

The problem for Houston is that even in an immensely hypothetical scenario where they make several of these moves, they’re still going to be hard-pressed to make their necessary additions while remaining under that luxury limit. For argument’s sake, let’s say the Astros non-tender Sanchez, manage to dump all of Reddick’s contract without taking any money back (unlikely) and then trade each of Osuna, Marisnick and Devenski.

Accomplish that set of hypothetical (and, again, unlikely) goals, and they could come in $10-15MM south of the tax line … before accounting for pre-arbitration players (i.e. league minimum, or close to it).

At that point, Houston’s rotation would consist of Verlander, Greinke, a returning McCullers and Jose Urquidy. They’d still need to add at least one starting pitcher. Behind the plate they’d be looking at Garrett Stubbs, who had a 79 wRC+ in Triple-A this season and will turn 27 next May. They’d still need to add a catcher. In the bullpen, perhaps they could piece things together with Pressly, Peacock, Biagini, Josh James, Bryan Abreu, Framber Valdez, Cionel Perez and other internal options, but it seems likely they’d want to add a reliever.

There are obviously ways to address those needs without spending heavily in free agency. Any of the speculative trade scenarios could net a reliever or a catcher. Houston could take a largely blocked prospect like Abraham Toro and trade him as part of a package to acquire some pitching help that, like Toro, has yet to reach arbitration. We know that Tucker and Forrest Whitley are effectively off limits in trade talks, but the Astros still possess other appealing minor leaguers, even if their farm system is nowhere near the powerhouse it once was (15th on Baseball America’s midseason rankings, outside the top 15 at MLB.com).

None of this is to say that the Astros can’t address their offseason needs and also check in below the $208MM luxury tax line. It’s possible, but it’ll take some creative maneuvering and perhaps require some moves that don’t go over well with fans. That’s the reality of fielding such a deep roster with high-end rotation talent (Verlander, Greinke) and paying to retain homegrown stars (Altuve, Alex Bregman) while others prosper in arbitration (Springer, Correa). On the plus side, that overwhelmingly talented core the Astros possess should make them division favorites again in 2020 regardless of what supplementary pieces are acquired this winter.

The question for the Astros, though, should be whether the necessary gymnastics to stay below the luxury line are worth it. Houston could cross the luxury barrier by less than $20MM in 2020 and pay a maximum of … $4MM in penalties. Even if they exceed the top tax line by $40MM, they’d see their penalties total about $10.4MM. Paying the luxury tax on a yearly basis comes with some consequences. Paying it once and dipping back under the threshold a year later (say, when Springer, Gurriel, Peacock and Michael Brantley are all off the books) shouldn’t amount to much more than a slap on the wrist.

One thing that’s constant throughout these scenarios: none of them involve Gerrit Cole. Unless the Astros make some shocking trades this winter or suddenly decide they’re comfortable living in the second or third luxury bracket for the next couple of seasons, his salary no longer fits into this complex puzzle.

MLBTR Poll: Julio Teheran’s Option

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The Braves are currently licking their wounds after collapsing in the first game of their National League Division Series matchup against the Cardinals on Thursday. Before the series began, Atlanta made the decision to leave right-hander Julio Teheran off its roster in order to deepen its bench. It wasn’t long ago that keeping Teheran out of a playoff series would have been unthinkable for the Braves, as he was once among the crown jewels of the franchise. In fact, during his first two full seasons (2013-14), Teheran notched 63 starts and 406 2/3 innings of 3.03 ERA/3.58 FIP ball with 7.88 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9. Prior to the second of those seasons, the Braves locked up Teheran to an extension worth a guaranteed $32.4MM over six years. At the time, it was the second-largest pact given to a pitcher with just two years’ service time.

Now 28, Teheran has hung with the Braves through the entirety of his deal, though he hasn’t been able to deliver the results he did during his early career coming-out party. Now, it’s possible he’s just about at the end of the line as a Brave. After the season concludes, the Braves will have a call to make on whether to exercise the $12MM club option for 2020 that they included in Teheran’s contract. They could pick it up with the goal of retaining Teheran, exercise it and try to trade him or decline it in favor of a $1MM buyout.

A one-year, $12MM gamble on Teheran wouldn’t look wholly unappealing for the Braves or anyone else. In Atlanta’s case, the club will head into the offseason with only Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz looking sure to return from this year’s staff (Game 1 NLDS starter Dallas Keuchel is a pending free agent). The team could also explore free agency and trades for other possible solutions and-or turn to young arms like Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Kyle Muller sometime in 2020. That foursome has little to no major league experience under its belt, though. Wright and Wilson have struggled over a small sample of MLB innings, while Anderson and Muller have not debuted yet.

If nothing else, Teheran has shown a consistent ability to eat innings. He’s fresh off his seventh consecutive regular season of 30-plus starts. Moreover, in 2019, Teheran continued an annual trend of yielding a low batting average on balls in play (.266), recording a solid home run-to-fly ball rate (11.2 percent) and outproducing his fielding-independent numbers. Across a team-high 174 2/3 innings, he managed a 3.81 ERA despite a far less appealing 4.66 FIP, 5.26 xFIP and 5.11 SIERA. While Teheran added a career-high 8.35 strikeouts per nine innings, he also turned in his second-largest walk rate (4.28 BB/9), once again induced few ground balls (39 percent), logged an all-time low swinging-strike percentage (9.2) and averaged a personal-worst 89.7 mph on his four-seam fastball – the pitch he relies on most.

Teheran clearly has his flaws, but that doesn’t mean the Braves will move on from him. It also doesn’t mean he’ll wind up making zero contributions this postseason (he could get back on their roster immediately as a result of Chris Martin’s oblique injury). Atlanta obviously has greater priorities right now than worrying about Teheran’s future, but once the Braves’ season ends, what do you think they’ll do with him?

(Poll link for app users)

What Happens When Everyone Can Hit 30 Home Runs?

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When I was a kid, prior to the 1994 strike, it was common for about a dozen MLB players to hit 30+ home runs in a season.  The only notable exception was in 1987, when the so-called “rabbit ball” led to 28 players hitting 30+ home runs.  There was an apparent over-correction in 1988, when only five players managed the feat.  Outside of those seasons, it was pretty much a lock that 10-13 different players would have 30 home run power in a given season.

Something changed again in 1993, as David Schoenfield of ESPN noted, and it wasn’t just the addition of the Rockies or the dawning of the PED era.  After the strike, from 1996 through 2004, it became common to see 30 or more players able to hit 30 home runs in a season.  The peak was from 1999-2001, a period in which 40 or more players were able to reach the 30 home run plateau annually.

The year 2000 bears similarities to the just-finished 2019 campaign.  Unlike the preceding seasons, which saw the single-season home run record of 61 being challenged and broken by Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, and Mark McGwire, in 2000, Sosa led MLB with 50 home runs.  But the distribution was widespread – 47 different players hit 30+ home runs in 2000, a record that stood until this year.  As in 2000, only one player reached the 50 mark in the homer-happy 2019 season, rookie Pete Alonso.

Once steroid testing began in 2005, we entered a five-year period in which about 30 players were capable of hitting 30 home runs in a season.  Then from 2010-15, there was a further reduction in 30 home run bats, as typically only about 20 players would reach that level each year.

The pendulum started to swing back upward in 2016, and in 2019 a new record was set: 58 different players hit 30 or more home runs. Players such as Renato Nunez, Yuli Gurriel, Mitch Garver, Ketel Marte, and Eduardo Escobar – not generally thought of as 30 home run threats – are included in that group.  The chart below shows the number of hitters with 30+ home runs per season, from 1996 through 2019.

With MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred planning to make changes to the baseball, it’s likely this home run trend will be reversed by 2021.  While you may be pondering how to account for 30 home runs being the new 20 home runs in your 2020 fantasy draft, we should also expect continued ramifications in player compensation.  When there’s a surplus of home run hitters available, those players are not able to command the same prices as before.  In 2014, only 11 MLB players hit 30 or more home runs, and only two of them were free agents.  Is it any surprise that Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Yasmany Tomas, Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz, Chase Headley, Nick Markakis, and Melky Cabrera received free agent contracts totaling over half a billion dollars?

Now, players like Kole Calhoun or Jose Abreu will reach free agency coming off 33 home run seasons and stand no chance of receiving the $42MM contract Melky Cabrera got coming off a 16 home run season.  The arbitration system will become increasingly out of step with the open market, leading to an increased supply of free agents, further depressing salaries.  The juiced ball of the last few seasons is just one more reason free agent salaries will be suppressed this winter.

It is at least positive that MLB and the players’ union are having discussions with two years remaining on the current collective bargaining agreement, but the owners are in the catbird seat.  Unlike in 1994, it is the players who now seek to drastically change the status quo.  I imagine that whatever scant public support players had 25 years ago in resisting the owners’ imposition of a salary cap, they’ll somehow have even less this time around in trying to upend the system.  The devaluing of the home run is just one more way in which the chips are stacked in the owners’ favor in the labor negotiations.

Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds

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We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ll now turn to a Reds club that has its eyes fixed on returning to the postseason. Having already pulled off a surprising mid-season strike for veteran righty Trevor Bauer, the Reds will be looking to add a few more key pieces this winter.

[Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart]

1. Take Heed Of Other Teams’ Ramp-Up Difficulties

When fans hear Cincinnati baseball ops chief Dick Williams speak of riding a bigger payroll to the postseason, they surely have flashbacks to the team’s recent 2010-13 inflection point. But they should shudder at the thought of what came before (nine-straight losing campaigns) and after (six straight) that four-season stretch. Williams and co. must work not only to get back to the promised land, but to create a sustainable (or at least more swiftly recoverable) means of doing so.

As they ponder the possibilities, the Reds need to be mindful of the recent experiences of the NL-rival Rockies and Diamondbacks — two clubs that have historically occupied similar tax brackets while dealing with the challenges of offensively charged home parks. While the Colorado organization successfully cracked the postseason code for two-straight seasons, its ramped-up free-agent spending — especially, on multiple veteran relievers — didn’t deliver the hoped-for impact. The Rockies have rather swiftly found themselves in a tight payroll spot. Before that, the Snakes slammed the pedal to the floor a bit too hard — the Shelby Miller trade and Zack Greinke signing — and veered right off course.

We’re not suggesting the Reds shouldn’t be excited to fling open a window of contention. But the club needs to measure its moves carefully, especially since it already parted with touted prospect Taylor Trammell in the Bauer swap. Running up payroll for a single season isn’t necessarily a problem, but the club can ill afford multiple, hefty, unproductive contracts like those the Rockies have accumulated. And it will be even more wary of Arizona-like over-exuberance that could cost a rare chance at an extended period of competitiveness.

Precisely how to navigate things will depend upon the opportunities that arise. But the Reds can look to some other National League clubs for guidance. The Braves (Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel) and Brewers (Yasmani Grandal) both cashed in with expensive, one-year deals. Had they fallen flat, the clubs would simply have shrugged and moved on. If the Reds are to place a longer-term bet, it probably shouldn’t come in a bidding war on a veteran reliever. Last year’s acquisition and extension of Sonny Gray would be hard to replicate, but spreading the cost over a slightly longer term (as the Rangers have with Lance Lynn and Mike Minor) could give the team a shot at landing a high-quality player at an affordable price.

2. Pursue Upside Up The Middle

It just so happens that the Reds are less-than-settled in the middle infield. Jose Iglesias turned in a solid campaign but is a free agent. Jose Peraza can be tasked with a utility role but not trusted as a regular. The club controls the rights to Freddy Galvis, but he should be a reserve on a contender. Nick Senzel is uber-talented and capable of playing center field or second base, so there’s some flexibility to work with for the Reds. There’s at least a sturdy floor behind the dish, but the defensively renowned Tucker Barnhart doesn’t have much of a bat.

This may be the place for the Reds to strike. On the one hand, the upcoming open market isn’t laden with great possibilities. There are quite a few guys that have at times been solid or better middle infielders, but it’s awfully light on players that appear to be present-talent true regulars. And the center field market is barren. But that also reflects the fact that many teams are already settled in these areas. And there are some intriguing options, including the aforementioned Grandal as well as old friend and bounceback candidate Didi Gregorius. It’s far from clear what’ll be available via trade, but there could be some awfully appealing names dangled. The pie-in-the-sky trade candidates are Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien, who can’t be ruled out entirely given their respective organizations’ long-view strategies. It’s much easier to envision Starling Marte coming available, and he’d be quite an interesting target with two cost-controlled seasons left on his deal. Jackie Bradley Jr. and Ender Inciarte are among the potentially available players that are somewhat interesting but lower-ceiling possibilities.

Yep, the Reds still need to bear in mind the issues raised in item #1 above. An all-in strategy to go for Semien without an extension in place would likely not be wise. But if the Cincinnati club is going to go past its comfort zone a bit, it ought to be on a player who not only has a sturdy anticipated performance floor but also carries some real star potential. There are relatively few options, so they might need to be explored early. If nothing comes available at a reasonable price, the Reds can pivot to the many affordable options while seeing if anything has fallen through the cracks (Yasiel Puig???) in other areas.

3. Don’t Forget Pitching Depth

Yeah, the Reds got really nice output from their rotation this year and picked up Bauer to help lead the charge in 2020. And they have clear need to improve up the middle and/or with a new outfield bat. But this team could easily get in trouble if it doesn’t allocate some resources to protect the pitching staff, especially with Great American Ball Park as the backdrop.

Here’s the thing to bear in mind when you start thinking about whether and how the Reds can build off of 2019: they are unlikely to enjoy such phenomenal pitching health. Aside from Alex Wood, who returned for seven starts after missing much of the season, the club’s starters were more or less always available when scheduled. And the relief corps received voluminous contributions from its best arms: Amir Garrett made 69 appearances; Robert Stephenson and Raisel Iglesias each cracked sixty innings; Michael Lorenzen threw 83 1/3 frames.

While the Reds might not feel a need to chase improvement in the pitching staff, they ought to be relatively aggressive with spending 2020 cash on depth arms. There are a range of possibilities — the acquisition of a volume swingman, risking a bit of payroll space on a few durable veteran relievers, targeting optionable arms on waiver claims — but the overarching approach must build in some contingencies. Not doing so carries significant risk. Early-season pitching additions can be exceptionally pricey and it’s a long time to wait til the trade deadline when you’re trying to break back into the postseason.

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