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Poll: Will The Astros Add Another Bat?

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Over the weekend, it was reported that the Astros circled back to Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado in trade talks after longtime third baseman Alex Bregman officially departed the club to sign with the Red Sox. Those renewed conversations surrounding Arenado don’t appear likely to result in a deal as things stand, but they do demonstrate a clear desire on the part of Astros brass to improve upon an offense that lost both Bregman and star outfielder Kyle Tucker this winter.

It’s not hard to see why Houston would like to upgrade their lineup. Among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances for the club last year, Tucker led the way with a sensational 181 wRC+ while Bregman ranked fourth with a figure of 118. As important as both players were, it’s fair to point out the club has a number of successful hitters still in the fold: Yordan Alvarez (168 wRC+) and Jose Altuve (127 wRC+) put up excellent numbers last year, and the catcher position remains strong with Yainer Diaz (117 wRC+) and Victor Caratini (113 wRC+).

Still, the combination of Alvarez, Altuve, Diaz, and Caratini cover just three spots in the lineup. The quartet do not figure to be in the same lineup very often this year, particularly now that Altuve is slated to play left field on at least a semi-frequent basis in order to keep Alvarez at DH, thereby stopping manager Joe Espada from penciling Diaz or Caratini in at DH on days when the other catching. Offseason additions of Isaac Paredes (117 wRC+) and Christian Walker (119 wRC+) should help to keep things afloat, with Paredes in particular projecting to serve as a near perfect replacement for Bregman with the bat despite his shortcomings on defense.

The Astros have a solid offensive nucleus, but their lineup figures to include several below-average hitters this year and sorely miss the offensive contributions Tucker has offered throughout his career. Without Tucker, the club’s entire projected outfield mix is questionable. Center fielder Jake Meyers is a career .228/.292/.371 (87 wRC+) hitter whose 2024 numbers were right in line with that production. Ben Gamel posted a 115 wRC+ last year, but that came in just 99 plate appearances and was his first above average offensive season since 2018. Chas McCormick has shown some solid potential with the bat in the past, but he’s coming off a career-worst campaign where he hit just .211/.271/.306 (66 wRC+). He’s also struggled to produce against right-handed pitching even in his more successful seasons.

The introduction of Altuve to the club’s left field mix should help to add some pop to the outfield, but the leading candidates to take over for him at second base are Mauricio Dubon and Brendan Rodgers. Both have six seasons in the majors, and neither has posted an above-average offensive season. What’s more, the departure of Tucker and Jon Singleton’s move to the bench leaves Alvarez as the club’s only lefty swinging regular, unless the club turns to Gamel for everyday reps. It seems clear that the Astros would benefit from adding another hitter to the mix — ideally a lefty.

The problem, however, is that very few options remain available in free agency, and even fewer of them are left-handed. Alex Verdugo has plenty of experience in left field and is perhaps the best left-handed bat still available, but he’s coming off a career-worst season. David Peralta is coming off a solid season in a part-time role with the Padres last year but is headed into his age-37 campaign. In terms of potential infielders, part-time players like Jose Iglesias and Whit Merrifield are not only right-handed, but also provide little over internal options like Dubon and Rodgers.

Perhaps there’s a trade to be worked out, even as swinging a deal for Arenado remains unlikely. The Twins have been rumored to be getting calls on utility man Willi Castro this winter, and a switch-hitter capable of playing both the infield and outfield seems like an ideal fit. Meanwhile, Tigers infielder Zach McKinstry and Mets infielder Brett Baty are two lefty bats currently on the bubble of their club’s 26-man roster.

In the case of a Castro trade or even a signing like Verdugo, money might also be a complicating factor. Reports have generally described the Astros’ budget as close to maxed out, with high-dollar moves like signing Bregman or trading for Arenado likely to require a greenlight from ownership. While it’s unclear exactly how much wiggle room Houston’s front office has, it appeared telling that GM Dana Brown indicated earlier this month that he sees an external addition of note as unlikely. With limited options still available and a seemingly limited budget to work with, perhaps the Astros will simply enter the season with their current roster unless a veteran opting out of a minor league deal or a player placed on the waiver wire in the run-up to Opening Day creates an opportunity.

Do MLBTR readers think the Astros will address their offense further before the season begins, or enter the 2025 season with what they have? Have your say in the poll below!

Will a hitter not currently in the Astros organization make their Opening Day roster?
No, they'll enter the season with their internal group on offense. 62.47% (1,966 votes)
Yes, the club will make an external addition to the Opening Day roster. 37.53% (1,181 votes)
Total Votes: 3,147

Poll: Will The Red Sox Extend Garrett Crochet This Spring?

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The Red Sox had their biggest offseason in years this winter, and after a failed pursuit of Juan Soto kicked things off in earnest by pulling off a massive trade with the White Sox where they sent multiple top prospects to Chicago in exchange for the club’s top left-handed pitcher. That Garrett Crochet deal naturally brought to mind the Chris Sale swap from nearly a decade ago, but one major difference between the two deals is the amount of team control remaining: Sale was locked up for three seasons when the Red Sox acquired him, while Crochet only has two years of team control remaining.

That shorter team control window could pose a problem for the Red Sox, given that their deep cache of impact, upper-level prospect talent is only just beginning to reach the major leagues. If Crochet doesn’t stay in Boston beyond the 2026 season, he may only overlap with top hitters like Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer for a year or so before the club will once again have a vacancy at the top of their rotation. Fortunately for fans in Boston, there seems to be mutual interest in an extension. Crochet spoke about the state of extension talks with the club last month and emphasized how appealing the idea of remaining in Boston long-term was to him just days after the club reportedly approached his camp about the possibility of an extension.

Of course, mutual interest in an extension won’t always lead to a deal and it’s also possible that Crochet’s feelings have shifted. He was asked about the extension possibility again last week, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive, and seemed a bit more open to taking his time: “I think that the long-term security is definitely something attractive. As players, we like to look out for our family first. But with last year being my first taste of starting, part of me also wants to see what I could do with the full season of innings workload. [I] was on a short leash. Part of me wants to see what I could do in a full season before, I suppose, locking myself into a certain bracket of player.”

Crochet and the club will still need to line up on what appropriate value for a deal would be, and that could be quite difficult given Crochet’s extremely unusual career path to this point. Drafted 11th overall by the White Sox in the 2020 draft despite the fact that he had spent most of his time in the SEC pitching out of the bullpen, Crochet was brought straight to the major leagues as a reliever and pitched to a phenomenal 2.54 ERA in 60 1/3 innings of work for Chicago from 2020 to 2021. At the time, the club appeared to be eyeing a rotation role for Crochet in 2022, but he underwent Tommy John surgery that April and did not pitch again in the majors until late in the 2023 season.

By that point, the White Sox had already begun rebuilding. That gave them little reason not to explore using Crochet out of the rotation, and so he stretched out over the winter and was tapped as the club’s Opening Day starter for his first career MLB start last year. The lefty was nothing short of brilliant in 32 starts last year, but nearly tripled his career-high workload with 146 innings of work. The White Sox carefully managed his innings throughout the season in an effort to keep him healthy, and he threw just 44 2/3 innings total over his final 14 starts, less than 3 1/3 innings per start. That lack of volume could raise some questions about Crochet’s ability to stay healthy while handling a traditional starter’s workload, particularly given that his ERA in the first half of the season was just 3.00 while that figured ballooned to 4.84 in the second half.

Those potential workload concerns could tamp down Boston’s willingness to offer Crochet a premium guarantee, even as his underlying numbers suggest a ceiling commensurate with the game’s very best starting pitchers. Crochet’s 2.69 FIP would’ve trailed only Cy Young award winners Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal if he had enough innings to qualify, and his eye-popping 35.1% strikeout rate led all starters who pitched even 20 innings last year. It’s also worth noting that Crochet won’t celebrate his 26th birthday until nearly halfway through the 2025 season, and that youth could help to ease some of Boston’s concerns about his longer-term outlook in terms of health and durability.

With so many competing factors to consider, it’s fair to argue that Crochet is one of the most difficult players to pin down in terms of value. Prior to last summer’s trade deadline, reporting indicated that Crochet may view Tyler Glasnow’s $136.5MM guarantee with the Dodgers as a target for extension talks although, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed in a post for Front Office subscribers back in August, Glasnow had six years of service time at the time of his deal with L.A. which could make it difficult for Crochet to reach those same heights. If that’s still Crochet’s asking price, it’s possible the Red Sox might prefer to play his first season under club control out and revisit negotiations later this year or next offseason. With that being said, a big season from Crochet would surely push his asking price up substantially. That figures to be especially true if he manages to stay healthy and qualify for the ERA title this year.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out between Crochet and the Red Sox? Will they come together on an extension before Opening Day? Or will the Red Sox wait to see how Crochet performs with the club during his first season in Boston before making a decision? Have your say in the poll below:

Will Garrett Crochet sign an extension before Opening Day?
No, he'll go into the season without an extension. 64.94% (2,582 votes)
Yes, he'll sign with the Red Sox this Spring. 35.06% (1,394 votes)
Total Votes: 3,976

The Best Remaining Free Agent Position Players

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The market for free agents of any note is drying up by the day. In particular, we've seen a run on veteran pitchers. Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Cal Quantrill, Jakob Junis, John Means, Tyler Alexander, Kenley Jansen, Scott Barlow, John Brebbia, Kendall Graveman, Luke Jackson, Scott Alexander and Lucas Sims have all come off the board in the past ten days. A few bats have signed in that time as well, but typically on smaller-scale deals. Justin Turner's $6MM Cubs deal is the most notable. Each of Michael A. Taylor, Ty France, Paul DeJong and Luis Urias secured guarantees between $1-2MM.

At this stage, there simply aren't many potential big league deals left for free agent position players. That doesn't mean there aren't any, however. There are still four free agent hitters who posted better-than-average offense last year, plus another couple notable names who are looking to bounce back from their first truly poor offensive performance in the past six seasons.

Let's run through some of the remaining free agent position players on the market, with a brief look at their 2024 season, what they bring to the table, and some of the best landing spots left for each.

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The Mariners’ Second Base Competition

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The Mariners spent most of the offseason looking to address the infield. They eventually made a pair of relatively small free agent pickups. Donovan Solano was brought in as a right-handed platoon partner for Luke Raley at first base. Seattle surprisingly re-signed last year’s second baseman Jorge Polanco after the worst season of his career. The M’s are attributing that dip mostly to knee issues that required postseason surgery.

Polanco is moving to third base. That’s an effort to reduce how much he’ll move laterally to hopefully put less stress on his knees. The Mariners needed to do something at third base. Josh Rojas, who’d provided very little offensively after the first month of last season, was non-tendered. Polanco’s return will hopefully provide a boost at the hot corner, but it leaves second base open. There’ll likely be a camp battle between a veteran utilityman, a couple players with limited big league experience, and perhaps one of the organization’s top prospects.

Dylan Moore

A six-year major league veteran, Moore has easily the most experience of anyone in the competition. He has been a productive role player for Seattle. Moore typically plays in over 100 games per season while bouncing around the diamond. He takes a lot of walks and brings some right-handed pop, but his batting averages have hovered around the Mendoza line. He’s a career .206/.316/.384 hitter. He posted a .201/.320/.367 line with 10 homers and 32 stolen bases across a career-high 441 plate appearances last year.

Park-adjusted metrics like wRC+ and OPS+ had his overall offensive output right around league average — a reflection of how difficult it is to hit at T-Mobile Park. Moore’s splits are stark. He hit .249/.362/.478 away from Seattle but mustered only a .144/.269/.234 slash line at home. He was also far better against left-handed pitching. Moore hit .229/.352/.410 when he held the platoon advantage, compared to a .183/.299/.339 mark against righties.

Daniel Kramer of MLB.com wrote last night that Moore was the frontrunner for the starting job, though the M’s haven’t made a final decision. The 32-year-old has never had one settled position. He played all four infield spots and in left field last year. Moore has logged over 100 career innings at every position aside from catcher. He’s miscast at shortstop and in center field but plays solid defense everywhere else. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have credited him as an above-average defender in his nearly 1100 career innings at the keystone.

Ryan Bliss

Bliss, 25, is a former second-round pick by Arizona whom the Mariners acquired in the Paul Sewald trade. He’s coming off a strong year at Triple-A Tacoma. The Auburn product hit .269/.377/.456 with 12 homers and 50 stolen bases (albeit with 13 times caught stealing) over 93 games. He drew walks at an excellent 14.1% clip against an average 22.4% strikeout rate. The Mariners called him up in late May.

Over his first 33 MLB contests, the righty-swinging Bliss hit .222/.290/.397. He hit a couple homers and swiped five bases, but he had a tough time making contact. Bliss struck out in 22 of his 71 plate appearances (a 31% rate) with a huge 16.5% swinging strike rate. That was a small sample in his first look at MLB pitching, so some struggles are to be expected, but the M’s optioned him back to Triple-A for the final two months of the season.

Listed at 5’7″ and 165 pounds, Bliss isn’t going to be a prototypical slugger. His average exit velocity and hard contact rate at both the Triple-A and MLB levels were solid, though. He has more power than it might seem at first glance. He’s a good athlete with decent strike zone discipline. The biggest question is whether the bat-to-ball skills will develop enough to make him a regular.

While Moore provides a ton of defensive flexibility, Bliss has a more limited profile. He played exclusively second base in the majors. Bliss has played on the left side of the infield (mostly shortstop) in the minors, but his arm strength is a question. He’s fast enough that the Mariners could eventually get him some work in the outfield, though his professional experience there consists of two minor league games in left field. Bliss still has a pair of options, so he’s likelier to end up back in Triple-A if he doesn’t win the second base job.

Cole Young

Young, 21, was Seattle’s first-round pick in 2022. He has ranked among Baseball America’s Top 100 overall prospects in all three professional seasons. Young has primarily played shortstop in the minors, but he started 37 games at second base with Double-A Arkansas last season. Barring injury to J.P. Crawford, Young figures to break into the majors as a second baseman.

Could that be as soon as Opening Day? President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has left the door open. “We are open to the idea that if any of our young players — if we feel like they have the ability to impact us in a meaningful way — show us that this is their time, we’re just going to let them run,” Dipoto said (via Kramer).

Young is coming off a strong Double-A season. He hit .271/.369/.390 with a robust 12.1% walk rate and a modest 15.8% strikeout percentage. While he only hit nine homers, he has an advanced hit tool and plate discipline. BA credits him as a potential plus hitter with fringe power who could play an above-average second base.

The lefty hitter has no Triple-A experience. The conventional path would be for him to begin the season in Tacoma with an eye towards a midseason promotion. That’s the likeliest outcome, but a big performance in Spring Training might accelerate the timeline.

Leo Rivas/Miles Mastrobuoni

Rivas, a switch-hitter, is likelier to wind up as a depth infielder than a regular. He reached the majors last year for the first time as a 26-year-old, hitting .233/.333/.274 in 43 games. Rivas posted big numbers in Triple-A. He turned in a .296/.441/.424 slash behind a massive 20.7% walk rate. He’ll work plenty of free passes but has limited power. Rivas can play shortstop and is better suited as a utility player. With two minor league options, he’ll likely bounce on and off the active roster.

Seattle acquired the 29-year-old Mastrobuoni in a DFA trade with the Cubs last month. He’s a .219/.279/.263 hitter over parts of three seasons. He’s unlikely to play regularly but could get occasional work around the infield if he holds onto his 40-man roster spot. He still has an option remaining.

Poll: Do The Mets Need Another Starter?

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The Mets undeniably made the single biggest splash of the entire winter when they brought superstar slugger Juan Soto into the fold on a record-shattering $765MM deal back in December. Along with the club’s reunion with Pete Alonso and some complementary additions like Jesse Winker and Jose Siri, the Mets’ offense appears to be in a very strong place as they look to build off their NLCS appearance last year.

The same cannot be said for the rotation. Despite rumors that connected the Mets to top starters on the trade market like Garrett Crochet and Dylan Cease (as well as plenty of early speculation about the Mets as potential suitors for Corbin Burnes and Max Fried), the club took a far more measured approach to its starting staff. With Kodai Senga and David Peterson already in the fold, the club reunited with southpaw Sean Manaea in free agency while bringing in Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, and Griffin Canning to replace Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, and Joey Lucchesi on the depth chart.

It’s an interesting group of names, and it’s not hard to see the potential upside in those moves. Holmes becomes the latest well-regarded reliever to try his hand at starting, and success stories like Crochet, Seth Lugo, and Reynaldo Lopez offer a tantalizing glimpse at what Holmes could provide the Mets with should the move work out. Meanwhile, Montas was a well-regarded No. 2 starter as recently as three years ago, and Canning is just one year removed from being a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for the Angels.

Still, there’s plenty of very real risk involved with each of the club’s additions. Holmes could instead follow in the footsteps of less-successful rotation converts like Jordan Hicks or even A.J. Puk. Montas has struggled to stay healthy in recent years and struggled to remain effective even when he is on the mound, and Canning was arguably the single worst qualified starter in baseball last year. Even Manaea is coming off a career year that he may not be able to repeat in his age-33 season this year.

The question marks in the rotation came to a head earlier this week when it was revealed that Montas is currently suffering from a lat strain that was expected to shut him down for six to eight weeks. The veteran righty has since suggested that he’s set for just four to six weeks of no-throw, but that still suggests he may not have even begun throwing when Opening Day rolls around, at which point he’ll still need to make up for the lost preparation time caused by him missing a full spring training. It’s not at all unreasonable to suggest that the Mets will be without Montas until sometime in May. If they still intend to use a six-man rotation, that would likely mean that Senga, Manaea, Peterson, and Holmes will be joined by Canning and Paul Blackburn.

Naturally, questions have arisen about whether the club should make another addition. (MLBTR’s Steve Adams argued that the Mets hadn’t done enough with the rotation even before news of Montas’ injury.) A number of veteran starters are still available in free agency, including four who made MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list at the outset of the offseason. A recent MLBTR Poll suggested that fans views Quintana as the best of those remaining arms, though the Mets have not been involved in his market despite interest in a reunion from the veteran southpaw’s side.

Even if the Mets aren’t enamored with the possibility of a Quintana reunion, both Andrew Heaney and Spencer Turnbull are still available and could be used either in the rotation or out of the bullpen depending on the club’s needs, affording the Mets flexibility when Montas returns. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn are among the other veteran arms still available in free agency.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting that the club’s rotation already runs six names deep even without Montas. Neither Canning nor Blackburn can be optioned — both have five-plus years of service — but righties Tylor Megill and Justin Hagenman are both on the 40-man roster and likely ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season. Top prospect Brandon Sproat will likely make his debut at some point in 2025 as well.

If the Mets don’t add anyone right now, they could look for rotation help closer to the trade deadline if it proves necessary. That would allow them to find out more about their offseason rolls of the dice on guys like Montas and Canning before deciding if they need another arm. There will also likely be a larger supply of arms available in July, as the number of sellers will increase relative to spring training, where optimism abounds throughout the league. Perhaps the risk of having to surrender an exciting young piece from their farm system to add an arm this summer makes adding depth now for nothing but money a more attractive option. Each side has its pros and cons.

Where do MLBTR readers stand on the issue? Are the Mets too light on talent in the rotation to compete with the Braves and Phillies for the NL East crown this year without another arm? Or should they stick with their internal options to open the season and reassess their starting depth at the trade deadline this summer? Have your say in the poll below:

Should the Mets add another starting pitcher before Opening Day?
Yes, add another arm to the rotation mix. 72.38% (3,017 votes)
No, see how the current group fares before reassessing this summer. 27.62% (1,151 votes)
Total Votes: 4,168

The Tigers’ Shortstop Situation

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The Tigers have clearly been focused on upgrading their infield this offseason. They signed Gleyber Torres to take over second base. It’s only a one-year deal but they are nonetheless willing to bump Colt Keith over to first and Spencer Torkelson into a part-time role or maybe even the minors. They hung around in the Alex Bregman market, indicating some desire to install him at third and block Jace Jung, though Bregman ultimately landed with the Red Sox.

None of that addresses the shortstop situation, however, so the club will seemingly head into camp with a positional battle there. That’s a risky but defensive strategy, as the winter market didn’t feature many better alternatives. On the trade market, Bo Bichette was in a few rumors but never seemed to be truly available.

In free agency, Willy Adames was the only healthy everyday shortstop. He signed a seven-year, $182MM deal with the Giants. The Tigers certainly could have matched that, given their fairly clean future payroll ledger, but it never seemed likely that they would. They already have a lot of money dedicated to the position, as the one big deal still on the books is for a shortstop, and they also have some potential long-term solutions just a bit over the horizon.

Let’s take a look at the current picture, the short term and the long term, as spring training is ramping up.

The Expensive Bounceback Candidate

Javier Báez

The struggles of Báez in Detroit are no big secret at this point. The Tigers signed him to a six-year, $140MM deal going into 2022. He had just finished a six-year stretch in which he hit .271/.312/.490 for a 107 wRC+ with strong defensive and baserunning grades, allowing him to produce 21.9 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs.

In his first year as a Tiger, he hit .238/.278/.393 for a wRC+ of 89, a disappointing but not disastrous performance. He fell even further in 2023, producing a .222/.267/.325 line and 63 wRC+. Another drop came last year, with Báez coming up with a dismal line of .184/.221/.294 and a 48 wRC+. His defensive metrics have also fallen in that time.

The most favorable view of Báez right now is that his recent nosedive has been health related. He only got into 80 games last year, missing time due to lumbar spine and hip inflammation. He underwent season-ending surgery in August. It didn’t come out of nowhere. Back in February of last year, Báez told Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press that he dealt with lower back discomfort throughout the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

That probably sounds like a convenient excuse but it could perhaps explain why his performance has dropped so precipitously. If the surgery has addressed his issues and he can get back to full strength in 2025, that could allow him to reverse his recent trends. Even if he doesn’t fully return to All-Star form, there would be value in simply being less bad.

If the struggles continue, the Tigers could face a tough choice. Teams are generally reluctant to give up on players when there’s still so much of the deal remaining. It’s pretty rare for a guy on an eight- or nine-figure deal to be released with more than two years left on the deal. Báez still has three years left on his pact but that will gradually move closer to two as the summer rolls along. Even if he doesn’t get released, there’s a chance he gets pushed into being an expensive utility/bench player.

The Possible Short-Term Alternative

Trey Sweeney

Sweeney, 25 in April, served as a passable fill-in while Báez was recovering from surgery last year. He made his major league debut by getting into 36 games down the stretch as the Tigers were engineering their amazing comeback. Sweeney slashed .218/.269/.373 for a wRC+ of 81. His defense was graded as above average, in a small sample of 294 innings.

That was far better than anything Báez has done recently, but was also significantly less than Báez at his peak. Whether Sweeney is the best option likely depends on which version of Báez is going to show up in 2025.

Sweeney’s not really considered a top prospect. Baseball America currently ranks him eighth in the system. He’s has some good numbers in the minors but there are some concerns about the strikeouts. He slashed .267/.345/.450 in Triple-A last year but was punched out in 26.7% of his plate appearances. In his brief big league time, he had a similar 26.9% strikeout rate.

The ceiling isn’t as high as some of the other players mentioned here, but Sweeney has been to the big leagues and handled himself well enough. If things go south with Báez again, the Tigers will have a fallback. But since he has options, he might be playing every day in Triple-A to start the season while Báez tries to get back on track.

The Immediate Depth

Zach McKinstry/Ryan Kreidler

McKinstry, 30 in April, isn’t a huge bat but is a fine bench/utility guy. He has 1,207 major league plate appearances to this point in his career with a .220/.285/.357 line and 79 wRC+. But he has also stolen 40 bases, including 16 in each of the past two years. He got those 16 bags last year without getting caught. He has also lined up at all three outfield spots and the three infield positions to the left of first base, with pretty solid marks all over. Despite the tepid bat, FanGraphs has credited him with 3.0 wins above replacement in 323 games over the past three seasons. He’s out of options and will be on the big league bench.

Kreidler, 27, is still looking to get to that level. He has a line of .147/.212/.193 in his three-year big league career, though in just 167 plate appearances. But his shortstop defense has been considered above average, in addition to playing second base, third base and a bit of outfield. He had a rough showing offensively in the minors last year but has been better in the past. He still has an option and could be ticketed for Triple-A to start the year.

The Possible Shortstops Of The Future

Kevin McGonigle/Bryce Rainer

On Baseball America’s Top 100 list, there are two Detroit shortstop prospects. McGonigle has the #23 spot with Rainer at #60. The brief take on the situation is that McGonigle is the better pure hitter, and closer to the majors, but there’s more of a risk that he’ll need to move off shortstop in the future.

Just 20 years old right now, McGonigle was taken 37th overall in 2023 with a competitive balance pick. Since that draft selection, he has played in 95 minor league games, stepping to the plate 421 times. A massive 15.2% of those plate appearances have resulted in a walk, compared to a strikeout rate of just 9%. There were only six home runs in there but his .310/.412/.443 combined line nonetheless translates to a 143 wRC+. He finished last year at High-A, so getting to Double-A and/or Triple-A in 2025 seem like realistic outcomes.

Rainer is only 19, having just been drafted a few months ago. The Tigers took him with the 11th overall pick in 2024 out of Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles. They didn’t get him into any minor league games after that draft, so he still has no college or professional experience to speak of.

Still, the expectations are high. As mentioned, BA has him 60th overall already. MLB Pipeline has him at #53, ESPN at #79 and Keith Law of The Athletic at #70. He didn’t crack the FanGraphs list but that outlet highlighted him as a player who has a strong chance of charging into the top 100 once he makes his professional debut. There are some questions about contact ability but his power and throwing arm are considered to be huge assets.

Defensively, McGonigle is considered to have the arm for shortstop but his range and motion are more questionable. Rainer is perhaps a better bet to stick at short but he also still needs to get his feet wet as a professional.

_____

Neither McGonigle nor Rainer have even reached Double-A yet, so there’s still some time before things get really tight. But Báez has three years left on his deal and many fans already calling for him to go. There’s no way for the Tigers to get any of that money back, so the best-case scenario would still be a Báez bounceback. If that doesn’t come to pass, the club could pivot to Sweeney in the short term and then McGonigle and Rainer in the long term. Though prospects don’t always work out as hoped, so there are no guarantees there.

How the chips fall should be impactful for the future of the Tigers. They have no serious commitments on their long-term payroll apart from Báez. Their recent six-year offer to Bregman shows they are willing to get more aggressive. If they can find an internal solution at short, there should be resources available for other parts of the roster.

Poll: The Dodgers’ Rotation

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The Dodgers have long been expected to utilize a six-man rotation this year in order to accommodate Shohei Ohtani, and have accordingly assembled a deep group of arms. Last week, however, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman revealed that, with Ohtani not expected to debut as a pitcher until sometime in May, the Dodgers intend to open the season with a five-man rotation. Four of those spots will go to Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki. That fifth spot appears to be up for grabs, with the two leading candidates being a pair of arms that missed the 2024 season entirely due to injury: right-handers Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.

The duo have been on very similar tracks for much of their respective careers. Drafted in the third and ninth rounds of the 2016 draft respectively, May and Gonsolin were both top-100 prospects for the Dodgers who made their big league debuts in 2019 and looked good in their brief cups of coffee. May posted a 3.63 ERA in 34 2/3 innings, while Gonsolin posted a 2.93 ERA in 40 innings. Both took on larger roles in 2020 and finished top-five in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year.

It was at the outset of the 2021 season where the pair’s careers begin to diverge. May has routinely been brilliant when healthy, but “when healthy” is a key caveat. May has started just 20 games and thrown 101 innings total over the past four seasons. That’s mostly been due to multiple elbow surgeries, and just when his arm looked to be healthy last summer, he suffered an esophageal tear that required surgery and sidelined him for 2024.

Gonsolin has been healthy long enough to build up a more sustained track record, but that playing time has come with ups and downs. In 2021, the righty posted a strong 3.23 ERA but a 4.54 FIP due in no small part to a bloated 14.2% walk rate. Gonsolin was sensational in 2022, logging a 2.14 ERA in 24 starts (130 1/3 innings) as he cut his walk rate by more than half and struck out a solid 23.9% of opponents faced. The success was short-lived. Gonsolin struggled badly across 20 starts in 2023 before undergoing his own Tommy John surgery, which wiped out his entire 2024 season.

May brings excellent rate stats to the table, with a 3.21 ERA (132 ERA+), a 3.59 FIP, and a 24.1% strikeout rate over that aforementioned stretch of 2020 starts between surgeries. He’s also just 27 years old. Between that youth and his limited on-field reps to this point in his career, it’s not outlandish to suggest that May could have a higher ceiling than even his strong career numbers suggest. Gonsolin has more experience pitching in big league games. The 31-year-old’s phenomenal 2022 season is also by far the best work either player has put forward in a given season. May has five-plus seasons of MLB service and can’t be optioned without his consent. Gonsolin will reach that same threshold 20 days into the season but for now has one minor league option left.

There are other candidates for the fifth spot, but none come close to matching the experience of May and Gonsolin. Bobby Miller is a former top prospect who delivered a strong 2023 season, but he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. Landon Knack, Ben Casparius, and Justin Wrobleski are all healthy and available as depth starters after each debuted in 2024. Of the three, only Knack has substantial big league playing time under his belt. The 27-year-old’s 3.65 ERA in 69 innings last year could make him the next man up behind May and Gonsolin, but he still appears to be further down the depth chart than the two returning righties.

It’s worth reminding that franchise legend Clayton Kershaw is slated to start the season on the 60-day IL. Younger arms like Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are all recovering from Tommy John surgery performed during the 2024 season. Gavin Stone had shoulder surgery in October and isn’t likely to pitch this year. Fellow righty Nick Frasso is a well-regarded arm but isn’t likely to be in the Opening Day rotation mix after missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery performed last offseason. That length list of arms is a testament to the organization’s depth and also a good reminder that whoever opens the season as the No. 5 starter is hardly a lock to hold a rotation spot all season. The Dodgers will probably cycle through 12-plus starters this season.

Be that as it may, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding the Opening Day staff. Assuming everyone remains healthy, how do MLBTR readers think the Dodgers’ fifth starter battle will play out? Will the club go for May’s upside and relative youth? Will they instead turn to Gonsolin’s more substantial MLB track record in hopes he can replicate his All-Star 2022 campaign? Will one of the less-experienced arms break out and claim the role? Have your say in the poll below:

Who will the Dodgers use as their fifth starter to open the season?
Tony Gonsolin 43.83% (3,059 votes)
Dustin May 33.62% (2,346 votes)
Bobby Miller 15.82% (1,104 votes)
Landon Knack 3.38% (236 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 1.40% (98 votes)
Justin Wrobleski 0.99% (69 votes)
Ben Casparius 0.96% (67 votes)
Total Votes: 6,979

Poll: Who Will Be The Cardinals’ Starting Catcher?

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The Cardinals attempted to kick off a youth movement this winter, letting veteran players like Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge depart in free agency while attempting to trade other veteran pieces under longer-term team control. Unfortunately for St. Louis, none of those trades came to pass: Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray both declined to waive their no-trade clauses, while Nolan Arenado expressed a willingness to waive his for certain clubs but no deal ultimately came together.

That’s left the club looking very similar to last year, but even with a largely identical roster there remain some areas where the club can stick to its initial plans. Contreras has been a catcher for his entire career, but entered 2025 working out at first base ahead of what’s expected to be a full-time move away from his duties behind the plate this year. With Contreras replacing Goldschmidt at first, that opens up the catcher position for a young player to step in and claim the starting catcher job as their own. The Cardinals have two candidates for that role: Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages.

Herrera, 24, has already spent parts of three seasons in the majors after several years as a well-regarded catching prospect. His cups of coffee in the majors during the 2022 and ’23 seasons were limited to just 24 games and 66 plate appearances, but he got a more robust look at the big league level this past year and made the most of the opportunity. In 259 trips to the plate across 72 games last year, Herrera hit a strong .301/.372/.428 (127 wRC+). He showed decent pop and speed with five homers and five stolen bases in roughly a third of a full season’s slate of at-bats and complemented that with a solid understanding of the strike zone, as shown through his 20.5% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate.

A massive .370 BABIP is unlikely to be repeated over a full season, but his solid 8.9% barrel rate and the aforementioned plate discipline numbers suggest Herrera has the bat to be a solid hitter in the majors, and perhaps even well above average for the catcher position. Herrera has been an average to below average defender behind the plate to this point in his MLB career, however, with a lackluster arm that he pairs with average framing and blocking numbers. For a Cardinals club that struggled to make the adjustment from defensive stalwart Yadier Molina to bat-first slugger Contreras behind the plate, it would hardly be a surprise if the club preferred a more robust defender.

Enter Pages. The 26-year-old made his MLB debut with the Cardinals last year and got nearly the same amount of playing time as Herrera did with 68 games and 218 plate appearances. While he was similarly below average to Herrera when it came to throwing out runners in 2024, his pop time to second base was in the 75th percentile of catchers last year according to Statcast, while Herrera’s was in just the 27th percentile. That suggests more room to grow when it comes to controlling the running game, and Pages also rates out as a better pitch framer than Herrera with identical blocking numbers.

Those stronger defensive numbers could make Pages an attractive option as a regular behind the plate to a Cardinals organization that has long appreciated the value of a strong glove, but his offensive numbers could hold him back. Pages pales in comparison to Herrera as a hitter, with a slash line of just .238/.281/.376 (83 wRC+) last season. While Pages showed impressive power with seven homers in just 218 trips to the plate, he also struck out at an elevated 26.6% clip while walking only 6% of the time. That home run total also might be misleading about his overall offensive skill set, as well. Even as Pages managed to send more balls over the fence than Herrera did in fewer plate appearances, his 4.8% barrel rate was dwarfed by Herrera’s aforementioned 8.9% barrel rate, indicating that it was actually Herrera who made the strongest contact more consistently last year.

Of course, it’s also possible that the Cardinals could choose not to commit to either youngster as a true starter behind the plate, instead operating on a timeshare that’s closer to 50-50. Stepping out of the traditional starter-and-backup setup behind the plate could afford both players the opportunity to assert themselves as regulars, allowing performance to more naturally dictate playing time over the course of the season and beyond. That might come at the expense of comfort for the club’s pitchers if who is behind the plate is frequently changing on a day-to-day basis, but one possible solution to that would be to have each catcher work with a certain group of starting pitchers in order to ease their defensive burden from a planning and game-calling perspective while also affording those starters some level of consistency regarding who their battery mate is.

How do MLBTR readers think the Cardinals will approach the catcher position this year? Will they prioritize Herrera’s higher ceiling and better bat, Pages’s stronger defensive reputation, or settle for a timeshare involving both youngsters? Have your say in the poll below:

Who will the Cardinals use as their starting catcher?
Ivan Herrera will be the club's primary catcher. 47.56% (2,803 votes)
The club will use both catchers in an even timeshare. 41.33% (2,436 votes)
Pedro Pages will be the club's primary catcher. 11.11% (655 votes)
Total Votes: 5,894

Poll: What Position Will Alex Bregman Play In Boston?

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Over the weekend, the Red Sox formally introduced Alex Bregman as their latest star infield signing after signing him to a three-year deal last week. One notable wrinkle that emerged from Bregman’s introduction is where exactly his future on the infield dirt lies. While previous indications were that Bregman would play second base for the Red Sox if added to the roster, manager Alex Cora made clear that the club has not made a decision on how exactly its infield alignment will shake out when Opening Day arrives next month.

The uncertainty around Bregman’s future position stems primarily from the desire of incumbent third base star Rafael Devers to continue playing the field for the foreseeable future. Devers, still just 28, moving to DH this early into his career would be unusual for even a defensively-limited star player. Miguel Cabrera was still the Tigers’ starting third baseman during his age-30 season back in 2013. Aside from Devers’ personal desire to continue playing third, a move to DH for Devers would seemingly leave little room for Masataka Yoshida in the club’s plans, restricting him either to mostly bench duties, forcing him into the outfield on a regular basis, or pushing him off the roster entirely. From an offensive perspective, Yoshida is likely to be far more valuable to pencil into the lineup card than the relatively uninspiring second base options like Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton that the Red Sox used last year.

With that being said, Bregman is the reigning AL Gold Glove award winner at the hot corner and has just 32 innings of experience at the keystone to this point in his career. Hardware isn’t always the best metric to evaluate a player’s defense by, but the difference between Bregman and Devers is stark when looking at advanced metrics: Bregman sat in the 91st percentile among fielders for his work at third base last year in terms of Outs Above Average, while Devers was in the 8th percentile. Bregman made clear throughout his free agency that he was ready and willing to play second base if it was asked of him, and Red Sox brass have indicated confidence in his ability to play the position. Even so, it’s impossible to deny that the best version of the Red Sox defensively would surely involve Bregman at third base, Devers at DH, and a steady glove like Hamilton (who posted a +3 OAA at the keystone last year) at second.

It can be argued, then, that the decision boils down to a question of offense versus defense. Playing Bregman at second base allows the club to keep Yoshida in the lineup to open the season more easily, though that will cost the club by forcing an less than ideal defensive alignment. Meanwhile, inserting Hamilton and his 92 wRC+ from last season as the Opening Day second baseman and shifting Yoshida to the bench would leave the club with an undeniably weaker offense but would give the club a quality defensive unit with Bregman and Hamilton flanking Trevor Story on the infield dirt. Using this logic, a Boston club that ranked 11th in the majors with a 104 wRC+ last year even before bringing in Bregman but ranked sixth from the bottom in both OAA and Fangraphs’ defense metric might be better off prioritizing run prevention over run creation.

Other factors are at play as well, however. It’s hard to say from an external perspective exactly how the relationship between Devers and the Red Sox would be impacted by the club supplanting him at third base, but all indications are that the club’s incumbent star is adamant about his desire to remain at the hot corner. It’s also fair to note that Yoshida is expected to be available to play the outfield more frequently this year after he underwent shoulder surgery back in October. Once his shoulder has recovered enough for him to play on the grass, the club could theoretically start Jarren Duran in center field and Yoshida in left before benching Yoshida late in games to shift Duran to left field and put glove-first utility man Ceddanne Rafaela in center field for a stronger defensive outfield when the club holds a lead.

Perhaps the biggest variable in this situation, however, is Kristian Campbell. MLB.com’s #7 prospect in the sport had a clear pathway to everyday playing time as soon as Opening Day before Bregman was signed, but reporting since the Bregman deal has indicated that the Red Sox still want to give Campbell the opportunity to earn a spot on the everyday roster. Campbell has primarily played second base to this point in the minors and his presence on the club’s roster, in the event that he makes the team, could spur the Red Sox to pull the trigger on moving Devers to DH.

With that said, Campbell is a versatile defender who has outfield experience as well, making it at least plausible that the club could plug him into the lineup in left field with Duran in center and Rafaela either on the bench or at Triple-A should they wish to play Bregman at second and Devers at third. That would only be a temporary solution, however, as top prospect Roman Anthony is also knocking on the door of the majors and seems likely to be debut at some point in the first half. Anthony is a well-regarded defensive outfielder and figures to take over regular reps at one of the club’s outfield spots upon his debut, which would seemingly push Campbell back to the infield unless the club was willing to bench Wilyer Abreu in right field.

With so many complicated factors at play for the Red Sox this spring, where do MLBTR readers land on the issue? Should the club prioritize its defense and move Devers to DH, opening up the hot corner for Bregman and making it easier to fit their prospects into the lineup? Or would they be better off putting Bregman at second base, avoiding the risk of discontent from Devers and allowing Yoshida to remain a fixture of the club’s lineup more easily? Have your say in the poll below:

Where should Alex Bregman play for the Red Sox?
Third Base 50.32% (3,714 votes)
Second Base 49.68% (3,667 votes)
Total Votes: 7,381

Poll: Should The Cardinals Trade A Starter?

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The Cardinals’ offseason has been defined by their attempts to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado. The club allowed key players like Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge to head into free agency this winter and did nothing to replace them as they focused on cutting payroll and starting a youth movement at the major league level. The club seemingly wanted to pair that with trades of some of its most expensive veteran players, but Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras both quickly made it clear that they weren’t interested in waiving their no-trade clauses.

That left Arenado as the most prominent trade candidate on the roster, but the third baseman vetoed a trade to the Astros at the eleventh hour back in December and his market began to dry up rapidly after that. The final nail in the coffin appeared to be the Red Sox, Arenado’s last serious known suitor, signing Alex Bregman to round out their infield mix. Now, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitting it’s likely Arenado remains in St. Louis to start the season, the Cardinals are poised to enter 2025 with the most notable change as compared to last year’s team being a lack of Goldschmidt at first base.

There’s one way the Cardinals could inject some more youth into the roster and create space in the payroll: trading from the rotation. Both Gray and veteran righty Miles Mikolas have no-trade clauses and appear unlikely to waive them, but veteran starters Erick Fedde and Steven Matz are both pending free agents who lack no-trade protection. Both players reportedly received interest from rival clubs earlier this offseason, and while the Cardinals at the time appeared focused on dealing Arenado rather than from the rotation, the unlikelihood of an Arenado trade could change that calculus.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored for Front Office subscribers earlier this week, there are a number of teams around the league that could still use starting pitching help. Fedde in particular could likely bring back an enticing return as a relatively affordable rental starter who posted a 3.30 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 31 starts last year. The right-hander will make just $7.5MM in 2025, a sum that virtually any team could afford even during this late stage of the offseason. Matz is less likely to bring back significant talent in return given his up-and-down trajectory over the years, but shedding some of his $12MM salary for 2025 would allow the Cardinals to add a veteran reliever to set up for closer Ryan Helsley or even take on a bit more money to try and facilitate the Arenado deal with a cash-strapped club like the Yankees. (The Cardinals’ reluctance with regard to trading Helsley, also an impending free agent, is another curious decision, as highlighted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco last month.)

In addition to the prospects and/or salary relief trading a veteran starter could net, the Cardinals would also more clearly make way for their young arms to get work at the big league level. Top prospect Tink Hence has yet to make his Triple-A debut but dominated Double-A last year and should be on the big league radar later this year. In the meantime, Michael McGreevy is already knocking on the door of the majors after posting a 1.96 ERA in 23 innings as a starter for the club last year. Sem Robberse, Quinn Mathews and Tekoah Roby are among the potential starting options the Cardinals have at their disposal that don’t currently have a path to major league starts.

On the other hand, none of those options has proven himself in the majors. With Arenado now seemingly unlikely to move, the Cardinals may feel they’re better off trying to contend this year, at least in the first half when they still have the opportunity to pivot back towards selling at the trade deadline. After all, the Cardinals won 83 games last year despite their flawed roster, and a healthy season from Contreras, better batted ball luck from Gray, and a resurgence from Arenado could allow them to contend in an NL Central division that still looks relatively soft even after teams like the Cubs and Reds have made notable moves.

It’s also worth noting that, even without trading Arenado or a starter, the club has made at least some room for a legitimate youth movement to take place. Kicking Willson Contreras over to first base has opened up the catcher position for youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, while the departures of Gibson and Lance Lynn from the rotation have opened up a spot for Andre Pallante after he impressed in a rotation role last year. Other players like Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker figure to get more consistent playing time in 2025, and all it takes is an injury or two to get players like Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott II more regular playing time in the majors as well.

With Opening Day just six weeks away, how do MLBTR readers think the Cardinals should proceed? Should they double down on their youth movement and deal a starter like Fedde or Matz to salvage their offseason of inaction, or should they hold onto their veteran rotation pieces through the early days of the season in hopes that internal improvements could make them a legitimate contender? Have your say in the poll below:

How should the Cardinals proceed?
Trade a starting pitcher to jump start the youth movement. 60.12% (2,367 votes)
Keep the roster intact for the start of the season and reassess at the trade deadline. 39.88% (1,570 votes)
Total Votes: 3,937
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