MLBTR Originals

There is no doubt this year’s free agent market has moved slower for position players than it has for pitchers. While 17 pitchers have signed deals worth at least $5MM, only nine position players can say the same – and five of them are catchers. Even with that in mind, the rumor mill has been strangely quiet for one top free agent in particular: All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso.

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Alonso as the seventh-best free agent of the offseason on our annual Top 50 Free Agents list. He was the top first baseman available and, arguably, the second-best pure hitter, behind only Juan Soto. We predicted he’d sign a five-year, $125MM contract. Yet, we haven’t had many opportunities to write about Alonso ever since. Over the past six weeks, the Mets are the only team that has clearly and repeatedly expressed interest in the two-time Home Run Derby champion. Their crosstown rivals are the only other team to be publically linked to Alonso.

Not so long ago, Alonso would have been one of the most sought-after free agents on the market, and his potential contract would have been much easier to predict. After all, he is one of the most powerful (and durable) hitters in the game. He has averaged 43 home runs and 112 RBI per 162 games throughout his career. However, teams look at a lot more than just home runs and RBIs these days. They’re also less likely to pay for past performance. Thus, as Alonso approaches his age-30 season coming off two consecutive down years, it’s not hard to imagine why teams might be hesitant to meet his presumptive nine-figure demands. Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote about why Alonso’s contract was one of the hardest to predict for the Top 50 list.

Even so, it’s impossible to deny that Alonso is one of the premier power hitters in the game. Over the past two seasons, down years by his own standards, Alonso ranks fifth among all hitters with 80 home runs. His 121 wRC+ in that span is 21% better than league average. Only a handful of players are capable of swinging the bat faster or hitting the ball harder than the Polar Bear. In other words, he is still going to find a lucrative contract this winter, even if he has to wait a little longer for his market to heat up.

Let’s take a closer look at every team’s chances of signing Alonso.

Likely Suitors (listed alphabetically)

Astros: The Astros freed up some payroll (approximately $8.9MM) by trading star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs and taking on third baseman Isaac Paredes, among others, in return. Adding Paredes won’t necessarily stop Houston from pursuing Alex Bregman, since Paredes could slide over to first base in deference to Bregman, the superior defender. However, this trade makes it more likely the Astros will look to add a new first baseman instead.

Houston has needed a new first baseman since optioning and subsequently releasing José Abreu earlier this year. The team has already expressed interest in Christian Walker, but Alonso could be another target, especially if Bregman signs elsewhere. The Astros reportedly offered Bregman a six-year, $156MM deal earlier this winter. It’s no surprise Bregman turned that number down, but it would probably be enough to land Alonso. That’s not to say the Astros would be willing to spend the same amount for Alonso as they would for Bregman, but at least it suggests that GM Dana Brown has the necessary funds to get a deal done.

Mets: The Mets have always seemed like strong contenders to retain their homegrown slugger. Although winning the Juan Soto sweepstakes may have reduced the pressure on David Stearns to make any other big additions to the offense, it’s not as if signing Soto precludes the Mets from re-signing Alonso. For one thing, the team’s projected payroll for 2025 is still far below where it was in 2023 and ’24. There might be a payroll number even Steve Cohen won’t spend past, but Stearns has tens of millions to work with before that could possibly become an issue.

Stearns also needs to think about how he’s going to address the holes at first base and DH that free agents Alonso and J.D. Martinez left behind. Mark Vientos is an option to play first, but he held the third base job in 2024. His defense was graded poorly there but the Mets could be better off if Vientos can hold down a more valuable defensive position. Last week, Cohen noted that the Mets are “still engaged” in contract discussions with Alonso.

Nationals: There’s a reason why Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald all predicted Alonso would sign with Washington on our Top 50 list. Several promising young Nationals players took big steps forward in 2024. Perhaps that will encourage ownership and the front office to make a big splash this offseason as the Nats look to get back into contention. Keibert Ruiz is currently the only player on the roster with a guaranteed contract, and RosterResource estimates the club’s 2025 payroll is currently $52MM lower than the team’s final payroll in 2024.

Furthermore, first base is wide open in Washington. Joey Gallo and Joey Meneses, who combined to play more than 100 games at first for the Nationals this past season, are out of the organization. Juan Yepez is the most likely internal option to play first base in 2025, but he has not done enough over parts of three big league seasons to warrant an everyday role. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has said the club is looking for middle-of-the-order bats and Alonso would certainly fit the bill.

Yankees: Aside from the Mets, the Yankees are the only other team to be credibly linked to Alonso. Early in November, Brian Cashman told Mike Puma of the New York Post that he had spoken to agent Scott Boras about his slugging client. However, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi recently suggested the Yankees would prefer to sign a first baseman on a shorter deal, describing Walker as “more of a priority.”

Nonetheless, it certainly seems like Alonso is still on the table in the Bronx. That should be true even after the Yankees acquired Cody Bellinger from the Cubs on Tuesday. Bellinger can play first base, but he’s more useful to the team in the outfield; he can play center field, allowing Aaron Judge to move back to right. Thus, this team could still use a replacement for Anthony Rizzo at first. Ben Rice, who hit .171/.264/.349 over 50 games in his rookie season, and DJ LeMahieu, who hit .204/.269/.259 in his age-35 campaign, are currently the best in-house options.

With a projected $270MM payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource), the Yanks are still about $33MM under their final estimate from 2024. And while they have made several additions, including Bellinger, Max Fried, and Devin Williams, they still have work to do to replace an incredible talent like Soto. That’s especially true when it comes to the offense.

Plausible/On-Paper Dark Horses

Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have money to spend and a strong desire to add star power. Alonso isn’t on the same level as some of Toronto’s top targets this winter (including Soto, Fried, and Corbin Burnes), but presumably, the Blue Jays will keep trying until they sign somebody if they continue to lose out on star free agents. To that end, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that “Everyone in the [Blue Jays] organization” believes the offense would look a lot more dangerous with another “legitimate slugger.”

The only thing keeping the Blue Jays out of the “likely suitors” category is the fact that they already have a superstar first baseman: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. However, the two could split first and DH this coming year with Alonso taking over at first if Guerrero leaves in free agency following the 2025 season.

Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks were one of the best offensive teams in MLB this past year, but they lost two of their best hitters to free agency in Walker and Joc Pederson. Alonso could help to make up for much of that missing production. However, if the D-backs are indeed planning to keep payroll at a similar level in 2025, they only have about $24MM to spend, according to the estimates from RosterResource. That might not be enough for them to make a serious run at Alonso, especially if they’re planning to address any other areas of need this winter. Then again, GM Mike Hazen could free up some cash if he can find a way to offload Jordan Montgomery’s contract.

Giants: New president of baseball operations Buster Posey is clearly trying to get the Giants back into contention as soon as possible; he already signed Willy Adames and has expressed serious interest in Burnes as well. Pitching will probably remain his priority even if he misses out on Burnes. Still, if Posey is considering Burnes, that means he has the funds to make a run at Alonso. LaMonte Wade Jr. was San Francisco’s primary first baseman in 2024, but the team is reportedly willing to make him available in a trade.

Reds: The Reds are the darkest horse here. They don’t have a clear hole at first base for Alonso, and it’s unclear how much they’re willing to spend this offseason. That said, they could badly use the offense if they want to contend in 2025. New manager Terry Francona could make room for Alonso at first by putting Spencer Steer in left field, Jeimer Candelario at third, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand at DH. And while Cincinnati’s front office hasn’t committed to increasing payroll this winter, they haven’t outwardly shut down the possibility either.

Tigers: Despite such a strong finish in 2024, the Tigers haven’t given their fanbase much reason to believe they’ll spend big to improve this winter. However, if they are going to spend – and they really should – Alonso would be a great fit for the lineup. POBO Scott Harris has acknowledged his team could use another right-handed bat and that Spencer Torkelson’s job at first base is far from secure. A reliable righty bat like Alonso would be a big upgrade over Torkelson and a strong addition to a lefty-heavy Detroit lineup. While the Tigers haven’t been big spenders recently, they’ve run higher payrolls in the not-so-distant past.

Unlikely/Not Happening

Angels: The Angels have been active this offseason, but first base doesn’t seem to be at the top of their priority list. Former first-round pick Nolan Schanuel was mediocre in his first full MLB season, but presumably, the Angels haven’t given up on the young first baseman just yet. Meanwhile, Jorge Soler is penciled in at DH, and Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, and Travis d’Arnaud could see some time there as well.

Athletics: The A’s could theoretically make room for Alonso at first base/DH by having Brent Rooker play more outfield and Tyler Soderstrom catch more often, but it’s far from a perfect fit. While this team might need to keep spending to avoid an MLBPA grievance, there are better uses for that money.

Braves: With Matt Olson at first base and Marcell Ozuna as their designated hitter, the Braves have no need or room for Alonso.

Brewers: The Brewers have been linked to at least one veteran first baseman this offseason; according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, they’re interested in Paul Goldschmidt. However, they’re not usually in play for more expensive free agents like Alonso. Milwaukee hasn’t signed a free agent for more than $35MM or more than three years since Lorenzo Cain in 2018. Even a modest splash on Goldschmidt might require them to offload the Rhys Hoskins contract.

Cardinals: Willson Contreras will be the Cardinals’ full-time first baseman going forward. Even if that weren’t the case, St. Louis is highly unlikely to sign any long-term contracts this winter.

Cubs: Chicago already made a big offensive addition this offseason, trading for Tucker last week. In order to make room for Alonso, the Cubs would most likely have to trade first baseman Michael Busch or presumptive DH Seiya Suzuki. After trading Bellinger to the Yankees, there’s no indication they’re planning to do that.

Dodgers: The Dodgers need Alonso even less than the Braves, thanks to their MVP first baseman Freddie Freeman and MVP DH Shohei Ohtani.

Guardians: On the rare occasions the Guardians have spent significant money in free agency, it has often been for a defensively limited slugger – think Josh Bell, Yonder Alonso, and Edwin Encarnacion. That said, a contract for Pete Alonso would easily be the biggest this front office has ever handed out to a free agent. What’s more, Alonso would only fit in Cleveland if the team were to trade current first baseman Josh Naylor. It would seem counterproductive for the Guardians to deal Naylor and his projected $12MM salary only to turn around and sign Alonso.

Mariners: The Mariners are looking for a righty-batting first baseman, and Alonso would certainly be a nice offensive upgrade for a team that struggled to score runs in 2024. Still, their reported interest in players like Carlos Santana and Justin Turner suggests they aren’t in the market for a bigger free agent addition. The M’s might be planning to increase payroll in 2025, but signing a big name like Alonso still seems unlikely. They haven’t signed a free agent hitter to a contract worth more than $25MM since Nelson Cruz a decade ago.

Marlins: Sure, the Marlins could use Alonso. They could use just about every available free agent. That said, this team is highly unlikely to pursue any free agents who aren’t one-year stopgaps/veterans to flip at the trade deadline.

Orioles: GM Mike Elias has already signed his slugger to replace Anthony Santander, and he went with outfielder Tyler O’Neill. That leaves the O’s with a bit of a logjam at first base/DH, where Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, and Heston Kjerstad could all vie for playing time. Elias might make a trade to clear that up, but even so, Baltimore’s payroll is already significantly higher than it was last year, and another big signing for the offense seems improbable.

Padres: The Padres have room for Alonso, especially if they trade Luis Arraez, and they could use a big bat to replace Jurickson Profar. However, POBO A.J. Preller is operating under tight payroll constraints this winter. Even for Preller, who always seems to have a surprise up his sleeve, Alonso doesn’t seem like a realistic target.

Phillies: The Phillies fall into the Braves/Dodgers camp. Their two best hitters, Bryce Harper (1B) and Kyle Schwarber (DH), already occupy the only positions Alonso could fill.

Pirates: Like the Nationals, the Pirates are an up-and-coming young team with room for a veteran bat at first base. Unlike the Nationals, however, the Pirates have never been big players on the free agent market. There’s a good chance they’re planning to run with recent trade acquisition Spencer Horwitz at first base in 2025.

Rangers: With the addition of Jake Burger, the Rangers don’t really have room for Alonso in the lineup. Given their desire to slip beneath the luxury tax in 2025, they probably don’t have the payroll space either. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe has come up in loose trade rumors this offseason, but it wouldn’t really make sense for Texas to part with the cost-controlled Lowe to sign Alonso. Both players have been similarly productive over the past three years. Moreover, the Rangers are reportedly seeking a left-handed bat. Trading the lefty-batting Lowe to sign the righty-batting Alonso would only set them back in that respect.

Rays: Even if the Rays were finally going to shock the baseball world and sign a top free agent to a nine-figure contract, Alonso probably wouldn’t be their guy. According to wRC+, Tampa Bay’s cost-controlled first baseman Yandy Díaz has outperformed Alonso at the plate in each of the past three seasons.

Red Sox: Boston already has money to spend but a cluttered first base and DH mix. Rafael Devers is a poor defender at third and the club has considered moving him over to first. But since they have Triston Casas there and Masataka Yoshida likely taking up a lot of DH time, it’s led to rumors of Casas being available on the trading block. Signing Alonso would be an expensive way of further crowding that situation.

Rockies: You can’t completely count out the Rockies – this is the team that signed Kris Bryant to a $182MM deal just a few years ago – but there is no reason to believe Colorado is in on any of the top free agents this year. After Charlie Blackmon’s retirement, Bryant is likely to get most of the reps at DH in 2025, while the Rockies surely want to see what they have in Michael Toglia at first base.

Royals: The Royals could use the offense, but they’re highly unlikely to spend what it will take to land Alonso. On top of that, they already have a full-time first baseman in Vinnie Pasquantino. With players like Jonathan India and Salvador Perez already on the roster, Kansas City probably isn’t looking for a full-time DH.

Twins: The Twins could use a first baseman to replace Carlos Santana, but Alonso is almost surely out of their price range. RosterResource already projects their 2025 payroll to be $12MM higher than the final estimate from 2024.

White Sox: Not happening.

Image courtesy of Imagn.