MLBTR Originals

Burke Badenhop: Free Agency, A Decade In The Making

By Burke Badenhop | October 3, 2016 at 6:15pm CDT

As a professional baseball player, you deal with a lack of autonomy throughout your career. At the onset you don’t choose who you work for, they choose you. You can’t request a transfer, but instead are subject to being traded. If you don’t like your current situation, well, you can’t just up and leave and join another team that might present a better opportunity. These situations are entirely unique to your chosen profession, but you deal with them nonetheless. It’s simply part of the territory. You’re forced to play the cards you’re dealt, but at the same time, you’re happy to have cards to play. The one way to gain some limited freedom in our game is to reach free agency. For the select few, that chance is just around the corner.

Reaching free agency is not a reality for the average player, unfortunately. A player’s service time determines when they reach free agency. Service time is literally how many days you have been on the big league roster. Every day that service time clock ticks. One. Day. At. A. Time. It takes six full years of that clock ticking to be granted free agency. Six years is a long time. I made my debut in 2008 along with 238 other players that year. Of those 238, only 58 of us earned enough service time to reach free agency, roughly 24%.

If you do happen to be one of the guys to make it, though, it’s rare to earn six years of service time over six consecutive seasons. Players tend to shuffle from the big leagues to the minor leagues at the start of their careers, resulting in partial service time that counts toward your overall time. It might take seven or eight seasons for a player to earn six years of service. Throw in the two or three (and that’s on the short end) years in the minor leagues before reaching the bigs, and you’re looking at about ten years from the time a player is drafted until he can make any kind of decision that relates to his career. And the same rules apply to everyone. Perennial All-Stars have to wait just as long as tossed-around right handed middle relievers like myself.

Most players who reach free agency aren’t bombarded by all thirty teams, either. Having ten teams courting you is actually a lot. I was pumped that four or so teams were heavily involved once I reached free agency. The teams calling also might not be the most personally desirable or ideal situations. You could have family in a certain area that you’d like to be near, but have no teams interested for thousands of miles. Maybe you’ve only been offered platoon roles when you’ve always been a regular starter. Regardless of the options presented, it’s the presence of options at all that excites a player.

Now, the rules governing free agency aren’t unfair. They are what they are. While baseball is a business, it’s an extremely unique business, especially as it relates to the players. And know that when a player leaves your team as a free agent this off season, it’s nothing personal. It’s just a decision he has probably been waiting ten years to make.

MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | October 2, 2016 at 8:04am CDT

MLBTR’s original analysis from this week:

With the offseason nearing, Steve Adams highlighted five impending free agent hitters who are trending upward thanks to strong recent performances.
To continue MLBTR’s “Three Needs” series, Tim Dierkes focused on the White Sox, Mark Polishuk examined the Reds and Jeff Todd analyzed the Rockies.
In the latest editions of Jason Martinez’s “Top Bright Spots” series, he looked at the Diamondbacks and Reds (ARI, CIN).

Three Needs: Colorado Rockies

By Jeff Todd | September 30, 2016 at 7:44pm CDT

Before breaking down every team’s assets and needs in full detail, we’re looking at big-picture areas of concern for those clubs that weren’t really in contention down the stretch.

Up now is a Rockies team that dabbled with a .500 record but ended up 11 games under (entering today) and buried in the NL West. The best way to describe the 2016 results, in most regards, is “middling.” Colorado rated as below-average, but not terrible, in basically every facet of the game. (And yes, that includes hitting.)

Here are three significant areas of focus for the Rox this winter:

1. Trade Carlos Gonzalez.

Well, now my feelings are known on that subject. While he wasn’t as good as he has been in the past, Gonzalez certainly wasn’t a problem for the team. He was healthy, hitting .298/.351/.511 (good for a 109 wRC+ and 112 OPS+) with 25 home runs over 618 plate appearances and accumulating 2.1 fWAR and 2.5 rWAR on the year.

Accordingly, he has some trade value — albeit nothing close to what some seem to think, in my estimation. Gonzalez, who’ll soon turn 31, is owed $20MM next year — a fair rate, particularly given that it involves a limited commitment in length. That reduces concern over his checkered injury history, with the hefty single-year salary still leaving some room for upside given Gonzalez’s demonstrated ceiling.

The thing is, the Rockies can’t afford to keep that much cash tied up in a left-handed hitting outfielder — not with Charlie Blackmon, Gerardo Parra, and the promising David Dahl on hand, at least. Colorado ran up a franchise-high $112MM Opening Day payroll this year, but it wasn’t enough to stem the tide of losing seasons. The club already has $66MM committed for 2017, with arb raises coming for Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Tyler Chatwood, and — if they are tendered — Jake McGee and Jordan Lyles.

Certainly, you could argue for trading another of the southpaw-swinging outfielders instead. But none make as much sense: Blackmon is needed in center, Parra would be a salary dump after a rough year, and Dahl is the kind of cheap, controllable asset the Rockies need given where they set their payroll.

The better use of the team’s resources — assuming further spending increases won’t be approved — would be to take the best offer they can get in a prospect return for Gonzalez while freeing themselves of his salary. That’s because, in part, of the next need on this list …

2. Improve the roster depth.

Colorado has a nice core in place, including several of the players just named as well as a strong, young up-the-middle infield duo in Trevor Story and DJ LeMahieu. But the 2016 team suffered from a huge fall-off outside of its best players, and putting a winner on the field may well mean making several targeted investments (whether through trade or free agency) to shore things up in multiple areas.

In terms of position players, the Rockies received six strong performances, a decent year from utilityman Daniel Descalso, middling work from the catching unit, and little else. A few solid-or-better performances from role players — a first baseman (or platoon at the position) and right-handed-hitting outfielder, in particular — would go a long way. That and a solid backstop to go with the seemingly-useful Tony Wolters and interesting Tom Murphy, along with a replacement for the free agent Descalso, and Colorado could well feature a stellar lineup.

The situation actually isn’t all that different in the pitching staff. You can’t just focus on earned run average here, of course. The fact is that the rotation received a highly promising performance from Jon Gray along with useful innings from Chatwood, Chad Bettis, and Tyler Anderson. Likewise, the bullpen had some bright spots: Adam Ottavino was great in his return from Tommy John surgery, Chris Rusin provided a pleasant surprise in a relief capacity, and Carlos Estevez showed plenty of promise (if also a need for some further refinement).

The results were mostly rough behind that — excepting the departed Boone Logan — but the club can hope for bouncebacks from at least a few veterans (such as McGee, Jason Motte, and Chad Qualls) while hoping that some young arms (e.g., Jeff Hoffman) make strides. But ultimately, the staff too is in need of a few steady arms. Presumably, that’s what the club thought it was getting in Motte and Qualls, but those failures (at least, at this point) shouldn’t deter the team from trying to do better this time around.

If the Rockies want to bet on their core, the best way to do so may be to take my proposed Gonzalez savings and spread them out to add at-least-serviceable options in the multiple areas of need, rather than aiming for one or two larger (and riskier) strikes while leaving other spots unaddressed.

3. Pursue offseason extensions.

Beyond the immediate positions that are ripe for addition, the Rockies need to be thinking of ways to manage their future payroll to keep a productive core in place at reasonable salaries. The future balance sheet is largely clean after 2017, so there’s plenty of room to plug in some guaranteed money if the price is right.

It all starts in the infield, where Arenado’s salary will soon skyrocket. He may not be a reasonable extension target, but it’s probably at least worth a try, and he’s not alone. LeMahieu is already plugged in for a reasonable $4.8MM next year, with one more season of control left thereafter via arbitration, and could be a worthwhile player to pursue. And the team could look to lock in Story at a bargain rate — it wasn’t afraid to extend Ottavino during his own injury rehab, after all, and this may be the only chance to tamp down his sure-to-be significant arb earnings.

There are other possibilities, too. Gray is the obvious target, though perhaps it’s a bit early to tackle that. Chatwood will be a free agent after 2017, and his earnings have been limited by injury, so a fairly modest commitment could make sense for both sides. Even Bettis — who underperformed his peripherals this year but largely followed up on a strong 2015 when you look beyond the ERA — might represent an under-the-radar target.

Then, there’s Blackmon, who somewhat quietly broke out this year. Sure, he’s been plenty productive in the past, but he is now wrapping up a true breakout campaign with a monster .319/.376/.543 slash to go with 28 home runs and 17 steals. Though Blackmon’s base thievery fell off, he remained a strong positive by measure on the basepaths by measure of Fangraphs’ BsR. With two years of arb control to go, this may be the time to decide if he’s the long-term solution up the middle.

In large part, the pursuit of extensions is about seeing whether there’s opportunity to be had. Fundamentally, the purpose of the undertaking for a team is to improve a player-asset by taking advantage of leverage (which typically arises through remaining control along with a given player’s personal preferences and risk assessment). That may or may not lead to anything once the dialogue starts, but the Rockies proved willing to think outside the box with Ottavino and ought to see if there are more worthwhile chances to take with regard to other quality players.

5 Free Agent Bats On The Rise

By Steve Adams | September 30, 2016 at 1:18pm CDT

Big finishes to the season can mean a variety of things to players. In some instances — J.A. Happ, for example — a late run of excellence can help a player land a contract that would’ve been otherwise unthinkable. Trevor Cahill and Fernando Rodney may have been in line for minor league contracts this past offseason were it not for their late showings with the Cubs. Of course, not every big finish ends with a massively boosted payday. Daniel Murphy’s late power surge was one of the game’s most notable narratives last October, but speculation about a sudden five-year contract never came to fruition, and he ended up with a three-year contract that now looks to be one of the game’s great bargains.

We don’t know what the future holds for these players, but here are five free agent bats that are impressing late in the year…

Carlos Gomez: Astros fans should probably look away. Since joining the division-rival Rangers, Gomez has batted an outstanding .291/.371/.564 in 31 games. He’s cut his strikeout rate by more than five percent while significantly boosting his walk rate, and the eight homer he’s hit in a month with the Rangers are just one shy of the nine he hit in 126 games as a member of the Astros. Gomez played his way out of a job in Houston, but his recent run with the Rangers looks an awful lot like his peak years from 2012-14 in Milwaukee. That could be enough to land him a multi-year contract this offseason, though a one-year pact in an attempt to further boost his value remains an option as well. And of course, Gomez will have further opportunities to add to his value in the postseason, as the Rangers have clinched the AL West.
Josh Reddick: The month of September has largely balanced out what was one of the worst months of Reddick’s career in August. He’s being platooned pretty heavily, which won’t help his free-agent value as much as showing competence versus left-handers would have, but he’s batting .406/.446/.565 in 75 plate appearances over the past 30 days. It’s been a roller-coaster season for Reddick, who has mixed in a month-long DL stint with his hot and cold streaks, but the strong finish undoubtedly salvages some free agent stock that looked to have been dwindling. Like Gomez, he’ll have further opportunities to showcase for interested teams in the playoffs.
Sean Rodriguez: The 31-year-old Rodriguez is quietly having an excellent season in Pittsburgh, where he’s batted .272/.350/.517 on the whole — including a ridiculous .329/.398/.605 slash and six homers over the past month. He’s also played every position on the field except pitcher and catcher this season, making him a versatile asset that’s finishing his year with a flourish. That could very well be enough to land Rodriguez the first multi-year contract of his career as he heads into his age-32 season.
Kendrys Morales: I looked at Morales’ rising stock last week, and all he’s done in the interim is continue to rake. Over the past 30 days, Morales is hitting .327/.377/.625 with nine long balls, which only adds to the monstrous production he’s compiled since mid-June. There’s no reason for him to exercise his end of the mutual option the Royals hold over him, and he’ll be an interesting qualifying offer candidate. Morales would be a threat to accept, having been burned by the QO system once in the past, but his production, in a vacuum, is enough to earn a multi-year deal.
Jose Bautista: Bautista’s reported asking price was one of the biggest stories in baseball back in Spring Training, but the prodigious slugger has had his worst season since breaking out with the Blue Jays in 2010. Bautista’s numbers are down across the board, he’s spent time on the disabled list, and defensive metrics have soured on his work in right field. He’s been great in the final month, though, hitting .250/.400/.438 with five homers across 120 plate appearances. Bautista still seems likely to turn down a QO in search of a more lucrative contract on the free agent market, and finishing out the regular season well (plus a potential postseason showcase) should help to quiet concerns about his health and ability to produce at a high level.

Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds

By Mark Polishuk | September 30, 2016 at 8:54am CDT

After the season concludes, we’ll be looking at every team in the league in depth with MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series. For the time being, though, we’re taking preliminary big-picture looks at what some of the non-contending clubs will need to focus on as part of our Three Needs series.

Let’s jump to the National League Central to look at what the rebuilding Reds will be looking to accomplish this winter, though the usual “three needs” designation may not quite fit in this case. While the Reds have quite a few needs, they theoretically already have the young talent on hand to address at least some of these problems — now it’s just a matter of which youngsters emerge, fall back or are still a year or two away.

[View Reds Depth Chart]

1. Find regular roles for Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera. These two are slated to be Cincinnati’s shortstop and second baseman of the future, and the future could begin now if incumbents Zack Cozart or Brandon Phillips are dealt. Peraza has also seen time in left and center, so there’s some value in using him around the diamond as a Ben Zobrist-esque super-utility player in order to get him in the lineup virtually every day, if a singular position can’t be opened up.

Cozart received a lot of interest at the trade deadline in the wake of his above-average hitting numbers in the first half (.267/.316/.482 in 335 PA), though the Reds couldn’t find a trade partner. He then went ice-cold in August and September, so while Cozart may not quite have turned a corner at the plate, he still provides outstanding glovework at a key defensive position. Cozart will get a pretty modest bump from his $2.925MM salary in 2016 via his third and final year of arbitration eligibility, so he’ll surely get some renewed trade interest this winter from teams looking to upgrade themselves at least defensively at shortstop. Cozart certainly looks like the Reds’ likeliest veteran trade chip, given that their other high-priced vets have major injury issues (Homer Bailey, Devin Mesoraco) or full no-trade clauses (Phillips, Joey Votto).

Phillips already rejected one proposed trade to the Nationals last offseason since the Nats didn’t agree to a contract extension. It’s now even more unlikely that a trade suitor will talk extension, in the wake of Phillips’ below-average year both offensively and defensively. In a recent interview, Phillips didn’t sound much more open to waiving his trade protection, so unless (or until) he consents to a deal, the Reds could make the big move of having both Phillips and Herrera compete for the second base job in Spring Training. This could leave Phillips as a very expensive bench piece, or the Reds could explore moving him to third if Herrera indeed takes over at second.

Of course, Eugenio Suarez has established himself at the hot corner, and it would seem a curious move to displace a 25-year-old for a 35-year-old nearing the end of his tenure with the club. Keep in mind, however, that the Reds have Nick Senzel (the second overall pick of the 2016 draft) earmarked as their third baseman of the future. With injuries and NTCs preventing the Reds from shopping most of their veterans, Suarez would be an interesting alternative trade candidate. He’s coming off a 20-homer season and is still a pre-arbitration player, though with only 2.2 fWAR combined in 2015-16, Cincy probably isn’t looking at Suarez as a member of its next contending team. Speaking of which, the Reds also need to…

2. Figure out which position players are keepers. Don’t count on the Reds acquiring anything more than veteran position player depth, as the bulk of their offseason and Spring Training time should be spent deciding on who amongst their interesting crop of young players projects as a long-term piece.

Billy Hamilton took some small but credible steps forward as an offensive player this season. Hamilton’s speed and outstanding center field glove are worthy of everyday duties anyway, though becoming even an average hitter would make Hamilton into a major threat. Tucker Barnhart’s pitch-framing and defense is a work in progress, though he can hit well enough to handle the position until the Reds know if Mesoraco is healthy enough to continue on behind the plate.

All-Star Adam Duvall emerged as a big power threat and a surprisingly strong left field defender, though he’ll need to cut down on his strikeouts and improve his on-base percentage. Scott Schebler posted some solid numbers and looks like he can, at least, serve as the left-handed hitting side of a platoon in right field. Big-hitting prospect Jesse Winker is knocking on the door for a callup and has been seen time at both corner outfield spots. Winker is also a left-handed hitter so he’s not ideal as a platoon partner with Schebler, though one would suspect Cincinnati would give Winker the first crack at everyday duties once he gets the call to the bigs.

3. Continue sorting out the pitching, with a focus on the bullpen. The Reds went into 2016 with about as unsettled a pitching situation as possible, and it resulted in a new Major League record for most homers allowed in a season. While Anthony DeSclafani, Dan Straily and Brandon Finnegan need to drastically cut down on the long balls, all three have claimed rotation jobs for next season. Bailey will join them if healthy, though that’s a big “if” given how he’s faced somewhat of a bumpy recovery from Tommy John surgery. There are plenty of candidates in the mix for the fifth starter’s job, with former top prospect Robert Stephenson tentatively in the lead, though he didn’t impress in his first taste of big league action. Cody Reed, Keyvius Sampson, John Lamb, Tim Adleman and highly-touted prospect Amir Garrett will also be competing. A minor trade wouldn’t be out of the question given the number of arms on hand, though given that the rotation is hardly set in stone, the Reds might want to keep as much depth as possible.

Losers of the rotation battle could help out the league-worst bullpen. There is some hope at the back of the pen, with the combination of Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen standing out as an intriguing closer/setup man pairing. Beyond those two, there’s really nowhere to go but up given how poorly the Cincy relief corps performed in 2016. If the Reds target anything in free agency, it could be a veteran reliever or two (on a short-term or minor league contract) just to add some stability. If these relievers pitch well, the Reds could potentially flip them at the deadline.

Cincinnati Reds: Top 5 Bright Spots Of 2016

By Jason Martinez | September 27, 2016 at 8:55pm CDT

Rebuilding season or not, falling short of the playoffs and finishing with a losing record probably means that more things went wrong than went right for a team. This series, however, will focus on those silver linings that each team can take away from an otherwise disappointing season.

[Related: “Top Bright Spots” archive]

Here are the biggest bright spots for the Cincinnati Reds.

1. Joey Votto, 1B

Votto had already proven in 2015 that he was still in the prime of his career, bouncing back from an injury-riddled and much less productive than normal season in 2014 by posting a 1.000 OPS in 158 games. Entering his age-32 season with eight years and $199MM remaining on his contract, any decline in performance would be alarming.

But Votto has not declined one bit. With an overall .974 OPS, including a ridiculous 1.103 OPS over his last 447 plate appearances, there’s no reason to believe he will slow down anytime soon. That’s great news for a Reds team that hopes to jump back into playoff contention while their star player is still worth every cent of his massive contract. (As a side note, Votto hit his 28th home run quite literally seconds before this post was published — his third hit in a 3-for-3 evening.)

2. Raisel Iglesias/ Michael Lorenzen, RP

While Iglesias and Lorenzen have pitched as well as could’ve been expected out of the bullpen, if not better—Iglesias has been dominant (1.37 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, four saves, seven holds) and Lorenzen has been very good (2.87 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, eight holds)—they needed to prove that they could stay healthy. After all, they’re both pitching out of the bullpen because of durability concerns.

They’ve done their part—Iglesias has appeared in 29 games as a reliever since returning from the disabled list in late June; Lorenzen returned shortly after and has appeared in 33 games. Both are on track to finish the season in good health. Now, it’s up to the Reds to decide if either returns to starting in 2017 or remains in a late-inning bullpen role. That’s a much better alternative than wondering if either will be healthy enough to contribute at all.

3. Adam Duvall, OF

Despite his second-half struggles, the 28-year-old Duvall has proven himself on multiple levels in 2016. His power surge in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League (53 homers in 831 plate appearances in 2014-15) was obviously not a fluke. Yesterday’s multi-homer game, his third of the season, pushed his season total to 33. He also reached the 100-RBI mark.

While a sub-.300 on-base percentage and high strikeout total for a third baseman-turned corner outfielder would initially suggest a one-dimensional player, the NL All-Star has actually been a well above-average defender in left field in the view of Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Combine that with his bargain salary—he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2018 season—and defensive versatility, and the Reds may have found themselves a gem.

4. Dan Straily, SP

Despite a solid 34-start stint to begin his MLB career in 2012-13 while with the A’s (3.94 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 7.3 K/9), Straily hasn’t been given much of a chance to stick in a big league rotation. After being traded three times in less than two years, the 27-year-old has finally found a home with the Reds, who plucked him off the waiver wire just before the start of the 2016 season.

Since being inserted into the starting rotation on April 18, the right-hander has delivered a 3.76 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 7.5 K/9 and a 63% quality start percentage over his 30 starts. So, basically, he’s a well-traveled version of the guy the A’s had when his value was on the rise early in his career. Straily might be staying put for awhile this time. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season.

5. Billy Hamilton, CF

It was pretty much the same old story for Hamilton early in the 2016 season. The most feared base stealer in baseball was not reaching base enough for it to matter very much. After failing to reach base at a 30 percent clip in either of his first two big league seasons, Hamilton went into the All-Star break with an uninspiring .283 OBP.

But if his second-half performance is any indication—the 26-year-old posted a .369 OBP with 21 walks in 197 plate appearances before a season-ending oblique injury in early September—the days of 100 stolen base seasons might not be permanently behind us. In fact, Hamilton’s 36 stolen bases in 45 games would put him right on pace with Rickey Henderson’s single-season record of 130. Not that Hamilton could match Henderson’s .398 OBP over a full season, but you get the idea. Hamilton could conceivably steal 100 if he can somehow manage a jump into the .325-.340 OBP range.

[Reds Depth Chart]

Three Needs: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | September 26, 2016 at 3:19pm CDT

With many needs to address, the White Sox added Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie, and others during the 2015-16 offseason. However, the Sox again failed to reach a .500 record, which they last achieved in 2012. They’re the next non-contending club up in MLBTR’s Three Needs series.

1. Put loyalty aside and install the best possible front office and manager. Kenny Williams has been a part of Chicago’s front office since current shortstop Tim Anderson was a toddler, and Rick Hahn joined the organization more than 15 years ago. The current arrangement, with Williams serving as Executive Vice President and Hahn as Senior Vice President/General Manager, has been in place for four years. None of those four Sox teams won more games than they lost. Even if we give the front office a pass for doing tempered rebuilds for a couple of years, they still had two failed winters of making win-now pushes. The team’s short- and long-term prospects don’t seem much different than they were four years ago. It’s time for White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf to put aside his loyalty to the Williams/Hahn tandem, and determine whether the White Sox would benefit from fresh voices in the front office. If Reinsdorf does decide to dismiss or reassign one or both of Williams and Hahn, he’d do well to more clearly define the balance of power and autonomy of his executives. In August, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reported that Hahn was more in favor of a trade deadline sale than was Reinsdorf, with Hahn later denying any discord.

Manager Robin Ventura has held his position even longer than Hahn, with his fifth season as manager (and his contract) coming to an end. Even if the front office remains unaltered, Ventura may be allowed to leave. First baseman Jose Abreu recently suggested the White Sox lacked the same desire to win as the Royals, which could be the final nail in the coffin for Ventura.

2. Go all-in on an organizational strategy. It appears that Reinsdorf, Williams, and Hahn have already charted a clear offseason course, one Hahn said will be “obvious” after their “first or second transaction.” Those reading the tea leaves generally feel those comments point toward a rebuild. While a true “everything must go” rebuild has rarely been Reinsdorf’s preference, the Sox remain stuck in no man’s land, with just enough talent to win 73-78 games annually. If they believe in the people conducting a full teardown (see point #1), perhaps White Sox fans actually would accept and encourage two or three seasons during which the team has zero chance of contending. If it’s any level of rebuild, the White Sox have to trade Frazier, Melky Cabrera, and Miguel Gonzalez, who are controlled through 2017. It would be logical to unload the well-compensated David Robertson (signed through 2018), and to trade or non-tender Lawrie and Avisail Garcia. James Shields should be released. All of those steps would mark a fairly obvious start to a rebuild, but would fail to bring in any blue-chip talent.

Stopping there while retaining the team’s truly coveted pieces would constitute another half-measure. The White Sox control ace starter Chris Sale through 2019. If 2017 and 2018 are looking bleak, then now’s the time to cash Sale in for a king’s ransom. While wingman Jose Quintana is controlled for one additional year beyond Sale, it makes sense to trade both if they’re trading one. Particularly in a free agent market devoid of starting pitching, Hahn would hold the two best cards. Abreu, controlled through 2019 like Sale, would logically be dealt as well. The team would be building toward a 2020 reboot, with Adam Eaton, Carlos Rodon, and Anderson becoming the new faces of the franchise along with newly acquired young players. A fully rebuilding White Sox team would be best-served to commit at least three more years to Hahn and give him more autonomy, or else hire a new GM.

On the other hand, the White Sox currently have more present talent than your typical rebuilding club, especially in the rotation. Plus, the AL Central doesn’t appear packed with powerhouse teams over the next few years. The danger would be in repeating the 2015-16 offseason, in which the White Sox made some improvements but not enough, and stuck with questionable holdovers in several spots. If Cabrera is retained, he’s better served at designated hitter, in which case the Sox would need to add two outfielders. They also need a catcher, a starting pitcher, and a few relievers. These improvements would have to be made with a subpar cache of prospects for trade bait and a free agent market that matches the team’s needs poorly. And they’d still have to eat $22MM in releasing Shields. I don’t think all of this could or would be done under Williams and Hahn with Reinsdorf’s typical $120MM-range payroll, so something would need to change to make a true “all-in” push viable.

3. If a rebuild is chosen, make the most of playing time opportunities. The Brewers, in full rebuild mode, uncovered Jonathan Villar, Keon Broxton, Junior Guerra, and Zach Davies this year. The White Sox, meanwhile, continue to trot out Garcia as an everyday player. Though he’s only 25, Garcia has now logged over 1,500 plate appearances as a below-average hitter. While I understand every roster needs veterans, a rebuilding Sox club would have no reason to waste playing time on Garcia, Lawrie, Shields, or Cabrera in 2017. Whether or not anyone interesting can be acquired in return for these players, the playing time is valuable for identifying surprising contributors. The Brewers added players with upside who would not have been given a full opportunity on a competitive team, and that could be a blueprint for the White Sox.

The White Sox are the sixth team covered in this year’s Three Needs series, joining the D-backs, Twins, Rays, Angels and Brewers.

MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | September 25, 2016 at 12:37pm CDT

This week’s original features from the MLBTR staff:

Mark Polishuk explored what a potential contract extension might look like for Tigers right fielder J.D. Martinez, who’s in the midst of his third straight excellent season.
The Braves and Padres haven’t been relevant to the National League playoff race this year, but that doesn’t mean their seasons have been completely devoid of positives. Jason Martinez highlighted the clubs’ five biggest bright spots of 2016 (ATL, SD).
Steve Adams analyzed the three biggest needs the Twins will have to address during the offseason, and Jeff Todd did the same with the Rays and Diamondbacks (MIN, TB, ARZ).
Jeff broke down the free agent stock of Royals designated hitter Kendrys Morales, whom Jeff doesn’t expect to receive a qualifying offer.
Considering Neil Walker recently underwent back surgery, Steve polled readers on whether the Mets should extend the consistently solid second baseman a qualifying offer after the season.

Three Needs: Arizona Diamondbacks

By Jeff Todd | September 23, 2016 at 11:28pm CDT

MLBTR will provide a broader view of each club’s winter plans when our annual Offseason Outlook series kicks off at the end of the regular season. Until then, the Diamondbacks are the latest team to be featured in our quick look at this season’s non-contenders. We’ve already covered the Angels, Brewers, Twins, and Rays.

Arizona’s struggles this year are well documented, and need not be canvassed yet again here. Not much went right, leaving a host of areas to address, but these three are most pressing:

1. Sort out the front office.

Turnover in the baseball operations department is nothing new for the D-Backs, but this winter could again see change up top. Tony La Russa was brought in to provide overarching guidance in the sui generis position of chief baseball officer, and he oversaw the hiring of Dave Stewart as general manager and De Jon Watson as senior VP of baseball ops. With Watson already having been shown the door, the team is still holding out on deciding the fates of La Russa and Stewart, neither of whom is under contract past this season.

The longer Arizona waits, the less time a new hire will have to prepare for an important offseason to come. Club CEO Derrick Hall has suggested that a decision will come “relatively quickly,” and that certainly seems to be a wise approach — though an earlier call would arguably have been preferable. After all, roster decisions on current players and potential targets will begin in earnest about one month from now.

Whether the team should change horses right now is up for debate, though certainly there’s a growing body of evidence to suggest that’s in order. Regardless, two things seem clear: first, that some measure of certainty in personnel and approach is needed as soon as possible; and second, that some changes in the decisionmaking process ought to be made that allow the organization to better understand and navigate the ever-changing landscape of baseball transactions and player analysis. While the traditional approach has resulted in the identification of some nice assets — chiefly, Robbie Ray, Jean Segura & Welington Castillo — the D-Backs seem out of step in many instances in their market valuations.

2. Make the best out of the Zack Greinke contract.

That seeming market disconnect was as apparent in the handling of Zack Greinke as it was in the acquisition of Shelby Miller — and that’s before accounting for the struggles of both pitchers (particularly the latter) in 2016. Adding rotation talent and betting on a fairly talented core made plenty of sense, but the way that Arizona went about doing so was questionable at best.

The Greinke decision represented an unbelievable risk on a pitcher of his age for an organization that has carried about $100MM in overall payroll, about one third of which is gobbled up by Greinke’s annual obligation. His middling season wasn’t exactly the worst-case scenario — a debilitating injury — but in concert with the fall-off elsewhere, it changes the calculus for the organization moving forward.

It would be silly for the Snakes to dump Greinke for the highest offer while his value is down and he’s still on the relatively youthful side of his contract. Unlike Miller, the veteran hurler was mostly himself — with some expected regression, added home runs, and perhaps a bit of poor fortune and park effects combining for a dud of a season. It’s reasonable to think that he could still boost his value and hold significant appeal at the 2017 trade deadline, if not sooner.

Still, the organization’s apparent approach on Greinke — so far as has been reported — seems a bit concerning. A report in late July suggested that Arizona was not only demanding “a great return of players” in trade talks, but wouldn’t consider eating any of the salary. And the most recent word is that the La Russa/Stewart front office isn’t interested in listening on Greinke over the winter.

To reiterate, I’m not advocating here for any specific course of action. And there could certainly be some public posturing at play. But the fact is, Greinke the player isn’t worth the contract ($157.5MM, some of it deferred, through 2021) — which was arrived at in a highly competitive bidding situation after the righty had wrapped up a career-best season. Even accepting that he remains a top-quality starter, it’s not reasonable to value him as a player asset the way that the reports have suggested.

The bottom line: whether or not the team ends up trading Greinke, it needs to approach the matter with a realistic assessment in order to make appropriate decisions. After hopefully getting him righted, I’d argue, the team needs to begin thinking about how it can get out from under what could end up being a disastrous financial commitment.

3. Work around the edges.

There’s just under $60MM on the D-Backs’ books for 2017, but that will balloon with arbitration raises for players like Miller, Castillo, Segura, Patrick Corbin, Rubby De La Rosa, and Chris Owings. Assuming that ownership doesn’t authorize a big move up over the approximately $100MM current roster spend, there probably won’t be much room to add major pieces.

Really, though, the team isn’t desperately in need of one or two big pieces — as it thought it was last winter. Just finding solid players in a few areas would go quite a long way. Adding even 1.5 to 2 WAR types of assets is harder than it sounds, but those kinds of incremental gains ought to be the focus.

Thus far in 2016 for the Diamondbacks, only four positions — first base, second base, third base, and catcher — have featured average or better production. Just two members of the rotation cracked 1.5 fWAR, and the team already has or will soon part with a few of its better relievers. In many ways, it has turned out to be a top-heavy roster.

The good news is that the team can hope for healthier and/or more productive campaigns from players such as A.J. Pollock, David Peralta, Owings, De La Rosa, and Paul Goldschmidt — as well as Greinke and Miller — while banking on continued strides from a few young hurlers, including Archie Bradley, who actually turned in a reasonably promising campaign despite an unsightly 5.02 ERA. But injuries and performance variations are inevitable, and Arizona must do a better job of having options on hand both to share time when appropriate and to fill in when necessary.

Despite taking 200 or more plate appearances in 2016, Owings, Yasmany Tomas (who ought to be in the A.L.), Nick Ahmed, Michael Bourn, Rickie Weeks, and Phil Gosselin were all approximately replacement-level performers. In the rotation, hurlers such as Miller, Patrick Corban, Zack Godley, and Braden Shipley were marginal in nine or more starts. (I won’t endeavor to name all of the club’s middling relief performances.)

Again, Arizona will surely hope that some of those names will turn up on the stat sheet as positives in the season to come. But a few well-placed trades and signings, as well as well-conceived decisions on less-established players, could transform the supporting cast into one capable of supporting a winner (assuming, at least, that the core can restore its former luster).

While the Snakes may not have much money to brandish, they do have the ability to offer roster space and opportunities for playing time, which are important assets in their own right when properly deployed. That’s especially true in the outfield, which was easily the worst unit in the majors this year with Pollock gone, Peralta hurt, and Ender Inciarte playing in Atlanta. Such a piecemeal strategy may not be terribly likely to result in a full-blown turnaround, but that’s probably the only way that the organization can hope to squeeze through its self-appointed window of contention.

Three Needs: Tampa Bay Rays

By Jeff Todd | September 22, 2016 at 8:00pm CDT

MLBTR will provide a broader view of each club’s winter plans when our annual Offseason Outlook series kicks off at the end of the regular season. Until then, the Rays are the latest team to be featured in our quick look at this season’s non-contenders. We’ve already covered the Angels, Brewers, and Twins.

Things fell apart this year for Tampa Bay, which entered with hopes that a deep rotation and bolstered offense would spur a return to the playoffs. Instead, the club vanished into the basement of the AL East — a place it hadn’t visited since 2007 — and ended up dealing away Matt Moore, Brandon Guyer, and Steve Pearce at the trade deadline.

Still, the most significant of those trades, the Moore swap, brought back a controllable major league asset in Matt Duffy — who, they hope, will fill a need at shortstop — and the organization continues to field a number of affordable players with reasonable promise. A full-blown rebuild seems unlikely for a team that has typically focused on remaining competitive even while hunting for value and exchanging increasingly expensive veterans for youthful talent.

Operating on the presumption that the Rays don’t intend to shop their best assets this winter, preferring instead to build around their core, here are three areas where the team has significant needs this winter:

[Rays Depth Chart]

1. Make a good investment to bolster the lineup.

The Rays have been an approximately average offensive team this year — 11th in wRC+ but 21st in runs scored — but that doesn’t mean there isn’t an opportunity for improvement. Tampa Bay has just $25MM committed in 2017, excepting some reasonably significant arbitration bills coming due, and it has several areas ripe for acquisitions.

Logan Morrison is vacating the first base position, as James Loney did before him, and the team could stand to add some punch to a position that has been a problem for the last three seasons. There are several ways to go. Brad Miller delivered a .258 isolated slugging mark against right-handed pitching this year, and could be paired with a lefty-killing slugger to create a strong platoon. Or, Miller could be utilized in a more free-ranging utility role (along with Nick Franklin), with the club angling to find a bigger bat to handle the bulk of work at first and/or DH.

The other area crying out for a bat is the corner outfield. As with the first base position, recent acquisitions (Corey Dickerson, Steven Souza) haven’t been as productive as hoped. Dickerson proved completely unable to hit left-handed pitching this year, while Souza wasn’t capable of reeling in the strikeouts and also saw his walk rate plunge. Getting these players on the right path remains a priority, but finding suitable platoon partners and/or signing a new everyday corner piece should be firmly on the table.

True, there are some internal options on the horizon to bolster the offense. Jake Bauers just finished a full Double-A season at only 20 years of age, so he’s probably still got some growing to do. But Casey Gillaspie posted a .307/.389/.520 line in 203 plate appearances after moving up to Triple-A, so he could challenge for some time at first base or in the DH slot in camp.

Whichever paths are pursued here, there’s clearly opportunity to put together a productive lineup, with Evan Longoria and Logan Forsythe leading the way. The upcoming market for free agents includes many more viable hitters than starting pitchers. But Tampa Bay will need to make more judicious use of its limited resources to make that happen. Unearthing the next Steve Pearce-like bounceback candidate would obviously help, but a bigger and better investment in the offense may be warranted.

2. Sort out the catching situation.

Tampa Bay is the only team in baseball with negative WAR behind the plate over the last three years. While that metric doesn’t incorporate framing, Rays catchers haven’t exactly excelled in that regard either (see Stat Corner, Baseball Prospectus).

The current group was plainly inadequate this season. Hank Conger was outrighted after his poor offensive showing and well-documented throwing problems. Curt Casali’s overall offensive output was about one-third as valuable on a rate basis (51 OPS+ vs. 143 OPS+) as his promising (but brief) work in 2015. Luke Maile hasn’t been much better in his 37 games of action. Bobby Wilson does carry a useful .247/.295/.438 slash since finding his way to the Rays, but he’s on his third team of the year and doesn’t figure to be much of a future asset (though he can be retained through arbitration).

Looking forward, former first-round pick Justin O’Conner has shown promise in the past, but he was significantly limited by a back injury this year and still needs seasoning. Even if he or another youngster (such as Jonah Heim, acquired in the Pearce deal) can provide an answer down the line, there’s a glaring need in the near-term. There are a fair number of potentially useful free agent candidates — including Matt Wieters, Jason Castro, Nick Hundley, Geovany Soto, Alex Avila, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia — though Tampa Bay likely won’t play at the top of the market for Wilson Ramos.

Turning the catching position into a strength is going to be a major challenge, and it’s one that Rays president of baseball ops Matt Silverman will likely attempt to tackle creatively, but getting some kind of functional solution is imperative if the team hopes to compete.

3. Deepen the bullpen.

The rotation may not have been quite the strength the Rays hoped it would be in 2016, but the staff was solid enough and holds the promise for much more — especially with Alex Cobb back and Blake Snell entering what will likely be his first full year of major league action. It’s the relief corps that has struggled.

Wins above replacement probably isn’t the best way to judge relievers, but Tampa Bay’s unit was markedly poor by that measure. Despite carrying one of the lighter workloads around the game (462 innings), the Rays’ pen landed in the back third of the league in RA9-WAR, too, as well as ERA and ERA estimators FIP, xFIP, and SIERA.

There are some positives, of course. Alex Colome proved to be a lights-out closer, Xavier Cedeno continued to be a quality southpaw, Matt Andriese was excellent when throwing from the pen, and Danny Farquhar has been rather dominant since his return from the minors (three earned runs on 17 hits and nine walks with 31 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings).

Beyond that, though, it has been rather ugly. The season was a disaster for former closer Brad Boxberger, who has given up gobs of walks when he has been healthy enough to pitch. Erasmo Ramirez may have been used as a “super-reliever,” but he wasn’t exactly super in that capacity. And the other pitchers who handled the bulk of the load — Ryan Garton, Enny Romero, Steve Geltz and Dana Eveland all topped twenty innings — were generally unsuccessful.

Adding some new arms to the picture seems like a necessity, though some could come from within. If Brent Honeywell and/or Jacob Faria can finish their development, they could reach the rotation and bump Andriese or Drew Smyly to the pen. And other arms, including Dylan Floro, Ryne Stanek, and Taylor Guerrieri, could enter the picture as well.

But it’s not at all clear that any of those internal options can be relied upon, particularly early in the season. Tampa Bay may need to bring in some talent via trade and/or free agency to compile a unit capable of keeping the team in the running in what promises to be a tough AL East division.

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