The Rule 5 Opportunity
This is an original MLBTR article produced by contributor Dan Lumpkin and the MLBTR staff. To read more recent MLBTR originals, click here.
Ender Inciarte and Odubel Herrera will long be linked due to their status as division-rival center fielders who inked extremely similar five-year extensions within two weeks of one another. They’re also linked, however, by the Rule 5 Draft altering their career trajectories.
Oddly enough, it was the Phillies who selected Inciarte out of the Diamondbacks organization back in 2012. Although he didn’t stick with the team all season and was eventually shipped back to the D-backs, Inciarte tells MLBTR he’s not sure he’d be playing in the Majors today were it not for the Phillies’ show of faith.
“You know, I could say I was very under-the-radar in Arizona,” the 2016 Gold Glove winner said. “Not underrated but very under-the radar.”
Inciarte was not seen as a prospect for his organization initially but was invited to play in Winter Ball during the 2012 offseason, and that’s where Phillies scouts got a good look at him and determined that Inciarte might be able to cut it in the big leagues.
“As soon as [the Phillies] picked me it took me by surprise, to be honest,” Inciarte said. “Then I realized what [the Rule 5 Draft] was and what it meant. It really worked great for me. It doesn’t work the same for everybody because some people don’t get to play and others get to play a lot.”
Inciarte played with the Phillies in his first big league Spring Training and did well despite the Phillies’ manager mistaking him for a clubhouse employee on his first day with the team.
“When I got there on the first day, I got there at like 5:00am, and Charlie Manuel didn’t even know who I was,” Inciarte recalled. “He asked me to go get something like his shoes or his hat and I told him, ‘I’m not a clubbie, I’m the Rule 5 kid.”
Inciarte found his way with the big league club, and many of the Phillies veterans saw his ability and encouraged him throughout Spring Training. This, Inciarte said, is what made him play with confidence.
“When I was there, I was playing with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay,” Inciarte said. “I could see all those guys up close. I felt like I was living a dream, right there. All those guys got to talk to me and said, ‘Hey man, you are part of this team. Don’t think because you are a Rule 5 it isn’t going to happen.’ It gave me a lot of confidence. I had a great time there.’”
Inciarte had a good Spring Training and actually made the Opening Day roster for the Phillies as a bench player. Unsurprisingly, he wasn’t in the Opening Day lineup, which would prove to be his only chance to suit up for the Phillies that year. Following the first game of the season, the Phillies signed Ezequiel Carrera, and it was Inciarte who lost his roster spot in a corresponding move. Inciarte was returned to the Diamondbacks.
Though some players might consider it a demotion and a disappointment to just barely sniff the Major Leagues in that manner, Inciarte views his brief stay in the Phillies organization as a turning point.
“For me, it was great because a lot of teams got to see me play and when I got back to Arizona they sent me to Double-A when I was supposed to go to Single-A,” he explained. “Everyone started paying more attention to me. I got more chances to play and prove myself. It was for the best but I know it’s not the same for everybody. When I got back Kevin Towers went to go see me play in Mobile, Alabama. He didn’t know who I was (before the draft). After the Rule 5 is when they started paying more attention to me. If it weren’t for the Phillies, I probably would not even have a chance to play in the big leagues so I’m very grateful for what happened to me.”
Inciarte’s experience with the Rule 5 process is typical — especially for position players. While it’s not uncommon to see a relief pitcher survive a season as the seventh man in a big league bullpen, there are fewer spots to stash position players on a Major League roster. That reality makes Odubel Herrera’s accomplishment of not only sticking on the Phillies’ roster all season but thriving and becoming a key long-term cog all the more impressive.
Herrera split the 2014 season between the Rangers’ Class-A Advanced and Double-A affiliates and put together a strong season. In 545 plate appearances as a 22-year-old, he batted a combined .315/.383/.388 with two home runs and 21 stolen bases. But it wasn’t enough to land him on the Rangers’ 40-man roster, and the Phillies reaped the benefits. Though Herrera had spent nearly his entire career playing second base, the Phils plucked him in the Rule 5 and shifted him to center field.
“I feel very blessed that the Rangers didn’t protect me because I am now in the big leagues and I have a long-term deal with the Phillies,” said Herrera through an interpreter. “Once I found out that the Rangers didn’t protect me, I knew in my heart that another team would pick me up through the Rule 5. … I went to Spring Training feeling a little strange but as soon as I arrived in Clearwater, the manager gave me a lot of cheers and confidence from day one.”
While Herrera’s five-year deal with the Phillies may closely mirror Inciarte’s deal with the Braves, Herrera’s Rule 5 experience in many ways is more closely aligned with that of former Marlins/Braves slugger Dan Uggla. Like Herrera, Uggla was the rare position player to be selected in the Rule 5 and plugged immediately into his new team’s Opening Day lineup despite the fact that he (like Herrera) had never played a game above the Double-A level in his career.
“I was thinking about [the Rule 5 Draft] a lot, yeah,” said Uggla when asked about being left off the Diamondbacks’ roster back in 2005. “I had a good fall league and they left me off the 40 man, so that’s obviously what I was hoping for. I found out in the morning that I had been drafted by the Marlins and it was one of the coolest moments of my career. The coolest moment up to that point.”
That moment, of course, would soon be joined by a great many more exciting moments, as Uggla went on to appear in three All-Star Games and hit 235 home runs in parts of 10 big league seasons from 2006-15. But the rarity of the chance he was given by the Marlins is not lost on him to this day.
“They gave me the everyday starting second base job in the big leagues,” Uggla said. “For a guy in my position, that was unheard of. It involves an extreme amount of luck and timing. I could have gotten called up with any team and there’s a good chance I wouldn’t have got to play. Maybe a couple pinch hits or a spot-start against a really tough pitcher, maybe I would have gotten sent back down. But to be in that situation and to make the team and they just let you play everyday, that was pretty amazing.”
Uggla also credited timing as a significant factor in his opportunity to start playing in the Majors. During the offseason he was picked up, the Marlins were in the midst of a fire sale in which they traded several starting players to build up their farm system. This flurry of trades opened up the Marlins’ depth chart and created an opportunity for Uggla to prove himself against big league pitchers.
“They had just made a bunch of trades and started from scratch with a bunch of younger guys and rookies,” Uggla said. “It was cool. I got to walk in and be at the team meeting and I found my place on the team.”
Rebuilding clubs indeed have an easier time carrying a Rule 5 pick over a marathon regular season, and that was a large factor in Joakim Soria‘s emergence in the Majors, as his agent, Oscar Suarez points out.
“As a pitcher, you go in with a second-tier team, like Joakim did with Kansas City at the time — they are no longer a second-tier team by any stretch of the imagination — but going in, they had no closer,” Suarez recalled. “Joakim was a starter, but they had no closer so they put him in the pen, and he beat everyone else out and before you know it, he was their closer. As an agent, yeah, you want any of your players to be Rule Fived, but you need to be realistic. What team are they going to go to? Like, if you are an infielder and you get Rule Fived by the Seattle Mariners, you say, ‘thank you for bringing me to your big league camp,’ but you know they aren’t going to keep you.”
That’s the reality that faces a handful of players each year following their selection in the Rule 5, but the opportunity with which they’re presented is one that is the envy of other players and agents throughout the game. This year, there were 18 players selected in the Rule 5 Draft, and if history is any indication, the vast majority of them will be returned to their original organization. A few may be picked up by other clubs along the way before being offered back, but it’s rare for a player to survive the season and even more rare for them to then emerge as regulars. For the select few who do, however, the Rule 5 Draft will always be looked at as a watershed moment in their career.
“It is a good thing for players like me that don’t get protected and because of that rule now, I’m a big leaguer,” said Herrera. “…I feel very grateful and very humble for the Rule 5 draft.”
Special thanks to Leo Nunez and Estefany Palacio for translation assistance.
Poll: Rangers’ First Base/DH Situation
Nearly two months have passed since the Rangers lost longtime primary first baseman Mitch Moreland, who signed a cheap deal with the Red Sox in early December. Moreland was never particularly spectacular as a member of the Rangers, with whom he batted .254/.315/.438 in 2,762 plate appearances from 2010-16, but the three-time 20-home run hitter’s departure has left the club without an established option at first.
[RELATED: Rangers Depth Chart]
Led by general manager Jon Daniels, the Rangers have been on the hunt for a first base/designated hitter type to help replace Moreland and Carlos Beltran, who signed with AL West rival Houston one day before Moreland went to Boston. Texas hasn’t reeled in anyone yet, though, largely because it hasn’t been willing to make multiyear commitments in free agency. The Rangers have signed three players – Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Carlos Gomez – to major league deals this offseason, and all received one-year contracts.
Texas, which would like to at least partially fix its first base/DH issues by signing yet another player to a single-year pact, has targeted two-time Ranger Mike Napoli. Having hit .239/.335/.465 with 34 home runs as an Indian last season, Napoli would be a capable replacement for Moreland. The 35-year-old has not been amenable to the Rangers’ one-year offer, however, and they don’t seem open to locking him up through 2018.
Fellow free agent slugger Chris Carter has also drawn the Rangers’ attention after co-leading the National League with 41 home runs in 2016. Carter’s blend of power and patience is enticing, but his low-contact, high-strikeout ways and negative defensive and baserunning value led the Brewers to non-tender him in December. Those flaws have also prevented him from landing anywhere else since. As is the case with Napoli, the Rangers are open to adding Carter, but only for one year (on an incentive-laden accord, no less).
With Brandon Moss now off the market, Pedro Alvarez is arguably the second- or third-best free agent first baseman/DH remaining (depending on your opinion of Carter). To this point, though, the Rangers haven’t been connected to him or other unsigned options like Mark Reynolds, Adam Lind, Logan Morrison or Ryan Howard.
If Texas doesn’t pick up a free agent to potentially slide in at first/DH, they could let in-house options sink or swim to at least begin the season. The Rangers have added multiple brand names – first baseman James Loney and former superstar outfielder Josh Hamilton – on minor league deals this month. The contact-oriented Loney didn’t hit with either the Rays or Mets during the past two seasons, which led to a dismal minus-1.5 fWAR over 744 plate appearances. Hamilton has no first base experience, meanwhile, and has played in only 50 games since 2015 (none last season) while dealing with major injury issues. Thus, the Rangers would be hard pressed to expect much from him or Loney in 2017. The same applies to Ryan Rua, a lifetime .255/.308/.404 hitter across 464 PAs.
Other than those three, the Rangers possess a pair of 23-year-olds, Jurickson Profar and Joey Gallo, who used to be elite prospects and who could play significant roles during the upcoming season. The switch-hitting Profar is the front-runner to start the campaign at first for the Rangers, but his production (.235/.311/.341 in 648 PAs) hasn’t come close to matching the hype he garnered in his prospect days. The lefty-swinging Gallo could begin in the minors, and even if he doesn’t, his prodigious power comes with worrisome swing-and-miss tendencies. Gallo has struck out in just under 50 percent of his 153 trips to the plate in the majors, which would be less alarming if not for the lofty strikeout rates he has also posted in the minors.
As evidenced above, the Rangers have a high quantity of choices to fill two lineup spots, but there isn’t a single one who’s a good bet to succeed at the big league level in 2017. On the other hand, the track records of Napoli and Carter suggest they’ll fare well offensively next season, but will one of them (or another free agent) end up in Texas? Or will the reigning American League West champions go forward with what they have and perhaps reevaluate during the season?
(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)
Will the Rangers add a proven 1B/DH before Opening Day?
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Yes. 61% (3,666)
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No. They'll stay in-house. 39% (2,332)
Total votes: 5,998
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Originals
The past week’s original content from the MLB Trade Rumors staff:
- MLBTR lost contributor Burke Badenhop, who took a job with the Diamondbacks. The former major league reliever wrote several interesting and insightful pieces for MLBTR dating back to last summer, all of which can be found here. We’re sorry to see Burke go, but we know he’ll do excellent work with the D-backs.
- Longtime minor league left-hander Ryan Dennick debuted with an outstanding piece explaining what it was like to receive a major league call-up. That promotion came courtesy of the Reds in 2014.
- After Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo, Michael Saunders and Neftali Feliz signed new contracts, Charlie Wilmoth updated the top 10 free agents remaining on the board. The list, which is based on the Top 50 that Tim Dierkes assembled entering the winter, lost another member when reliever Greg Holland officially signed with the Rockies on Saturday. Right-hander Jason Hammel is the highest-ranked free agent left.
You Only Get One MLB Debut
It’s been 342 professional appearances and nearly eight calendar years since Ryan Dennick was selected by the Royals out of Tennessee Technological University in 2009. We’re happy to welcome Ryan as the latest author to join our Player’s Perspective series here at MLBTR.
18,910. This is the number of players who have made a Major League debut in the history of the sport. In life, you only get a few true indelible moments. For those nearly 19,000 players, there is no doubt in my mind getting the call to the big leagues is one of them. Every single player that has been lucky enough to beat incredible odds to reach the game’s highest level can tell you in vivid detail where they were, when it happened, and the emotions that came with having a lifelong dream realized. My name is Ryan Dennick. I was a 22nd-round senior sign in the 2009 draft. Six seasons later, I became number 18,360. This was my indelible moment.
On August 31st, 2014, Jonathan Broxton was traded from the Cincinnati Reds to the Milwaukee Brewers. To most, this meant the Reds were shedding a little over $11MM in payroll commitment. For a team that was in desperate need of salary relief, it was a move they had to make. To the players in Triple-A Louisville’s clubhouse, this meant something completely different. There was an open 40-man roster spot.
When news of the trade broke, a bit of a buzz swept through the clubhouse. The move was completely unexpected and guys began to speculate who could fill the vacancy. With rosters in the big leagues expanding from 25 to 40 the next day, that roster spot wouldn’t be vacant very long. Each year, you can take a pretty good guess on who most of the September call-ups are going to be. Players already on the 40-man roster in the upper minors obviously have the inside track to get the call, since no roster move needs to be made. Prospects that require being protected from the Rule 5 draft the upcoming offseason could certainly find themselves in a Major League uniform come September.
Then there are players like me. The hardest call-ups to predict. The non-prospect, roster filler types that had their best statistical seasons. If a spot isn’t open on the 40-man, teams don’t often go out of their way to create an opening for a player who probably doesn’t fit into their long-term plans. Instead, these players will be sent into the offseason with a pat on the back for a job well done, and perhaps an invite to Major League Spring Training the next season. A team’s placement in the standings plays a factor as well. Without the added pressure of staying in contention late in the season, teams out of the race may be more willing to reward these players with a call-up, if a roster spot is available. The Reds were the perfect storm. Sitting with a record of 66-71, they were out of contention. When the Broxton trade happened, a roster spot opened up. Every player in our clubhouse not currently on the 40-man roster was hoping that spot had their name on it.
For a good majority of my minor league pitching career, I was quite mediocre statistically. I was never great, but never horrible either. I had always shown enough promise to warrant filling a minor league roster spot. But in the eyes of those in the front office, I probably didn’t have enough “stuff” to reach the Majors without great minor league numbers to force their hand. Of course, being left-handed helped me stick around, too. I always believed I would reach the Majors one day. Every minor leaguer does. We would be crazy to live the minor league lifestyle year after year if we didn’t think we could reach the carrot on the stick, even if it was just a nibble.
For whatever reason, a player can have a year where everything just goes right. Something just clicks. Pitchers see line drives hit right at fielders. Hitters have more bloopers fall in for hits. That was my 2014 season. I was having easily the best season of my life. Outing after outing, I was building my case to force the Reds to make a decision on me. A move from the starting rotation to the bullpen helped my fastball play up a little more and made my slider a little sharper. Every bit helps. By the end of the season, my 40-man roster spot résumé included an unblemished record, a team-low ERA, the league lead in appearances, and the league lead in holds. Seemingly every break went my way. I was hoping for one more.
On the morning of September 1, I rolled into Louisville Slugger Field a little later than I normally do. I had just finished a long breakfast with my mom and fiancé at one of the local spots in downtown Louisville. I tried all I could to get my mind off what could be waiting for me when I arrived. I failed. Expecting a call-up was an easy way to set yourself up for disappointment so I always tried to operate with the idea that if I was meant to be in the big leagues, somehow I would get there. But the Broxton trade cleared a path. That spot has to go to someone. Why not me?
As I walked through the clubhouse doors, to the left I already saw our manager, Jim Riggleman, in his office letting the members of the 40-man roster know they are getting the call back to the Majors. Since I was one of the last players to arrive in the clubhouse, I set my bag down at my locker and took a quick look around the room looking for unbridled happiness from a player who earned the right to fill the open roster spot.
It doesn’t matter if a player has been to the big leagues before or not, when a teammate gets called up for the first time, it’s a special moment in the clubhouse. Everyone stops what they are doing to offer handshakes and hugs in recognition of the hard work, dedication and sacrifice it takes to reach the game’s highest level. Major League jobs aren’t given away. Every single one of them is earned. However, no such excitement was taking place. I left my locker to head towards the players’ lounge to try to get in a game of spades before heading out to the field to do my throwing program. Right as I turned the corner, I was met by our pitching coach, Ted Power. “Where have you been?! Skip wants to see you! Now!”
When the manager wants to see you, it’s usually for one of three reasons. You’re either going up, going down, or going home. It’s not to chit-chat. As I made my way to Riggleman’s office, I passed another player who was just told he was returning to the big leagues. We didn’t say anything as we passed. He just shot me a wink, as if he already knew what I was about to walk into. “Have a seat, Ryan,” Jim said. I took a seat on the sofa in his office as I wondered if this was it.
“Am I going up? Is he letting me know they decided not to call me up but he’s thanking me for a great season?” My mind raced so fast that I didn’t realize he’d been talking for about ten seconds, and I didn’t hear anything he said. I snapped out of it and zoned back in to catch him say, “So you’re going up to Cincinnati to finish out the season. Do you have any questions?”
I sat in stunned silence, trying to process what has just been said to me. I’d waited my whole life to hear those words and now that I had, I didn’t know what to do. Years of low pay: validated. Years of sub-par housing: validated. Years of cramped 12-hour bus rides: validated. Years of eating more peanut butter and jelly than is recommended in a lifetime: validated. “…No,” I said. I could barely eek that out.
“OK, then get out of here, Jimmy (the trainer) has your itinerary.”
I left his office, and right around the corner was the player I passed on my way in. “Yeah??” he asked, referring to me being called up or not. I nodded my head. “Yeah…” He turned to go into the clubhouse and shouted,“We got a first-timer here!” Handshakes and hugs all around. I just became a 27-year-old rookie.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Top 10 Remaining Free Agents
We last checked in on the top available free agents almost a month ago, and since then, four of our top ten — Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo, Michael Saunders and Neftali Feliz — have come off the board. Here’s a look at the top ten remaining at this point, with rankings from MLBTR’s November Top 50.
15. Jason Hammel. Hammel’s reported market has been curiously quiet all winter despite a typically solid 2016 season in Chicago. Since the new year, he’s been connected to the Orioles, Rangers and Yankees, although the Orioles look less likely now than they did before adding Trumbo. Hammel also changed agents this winter; one imagines it’s been a frustrating offseason for him.
16. Matt Wieters. Mark Polishuk took a close look at Wieters’ market earlier this weekend. The Braves’ recent signing of Kurt Suzuki would seem to limit Wieters’ options somewhat. A return to the Orioles to share the catcher position with Welington Castillo is a possibility, although, as Mark pointed out, that arrangement doesn’t seem to bode well for Wieters’ chances of landing a big free-agent contract in the future. Wieters has also been connected to the Angels.
21. Mike Napoli. With Edwin Encarnacion and Trumbo off the board, Napoli could be the next 1B/DH domino to fall. A return to the Rangers might be the strongest possibility at this point, and since the Rangers had interest in Trumbo, it might make sense for talks to intensify now that Trumbo is off the board. Texas has also recently been connected to fellow righty slugger Chris Carter, however.
23. Greg Holland. Holland reportedly could pick his team in the next week, capping an offseason in which he’s been connected to nearly everyone. Holland reportedly hopes for a two-year deal with an opt-out after the first year; it’s unclear which teams might consent to that arrangement, given that such a contract would require Holland’s new team to assume most of the risk of his return from injury while limiting its reward.
24. Travis Wood. Reports on Wood’s market have been few and far between this month. One potentially interesting development, though, has been the Rangers’ signing of Tyson Ross. Ross had also been connected to the Cubs, and it appeared possible the Cubs could attempt to re-sign Wood as a backup plan as they search for rotation depth.
30. Brandon Moss. Most of the news surrounding Moss in the past month has connected him to teams that no longer seem especially likely to sign him, such as the Orioles (who re-signed Trumbo), Blue Jays (who re-signed Bautista) and Phillies (who signed Saunders). The Rays have been connected to a variety of veteran hitters this offseason and would seem to be a possibility for Moss, although they might prefer a right-handed hitter. With a number of sluggers still available (including Napoli, Carter, Pedro Alvarez and Mark Reynolds), Moss might have to continue to wait for his rolling stone.
31. Joe Blanton. The veteran righty makes his first appearance on this list after a strong season (2.48 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9) in the Dodgers bullpen. He’s recently been connected to the Rockies, although there have been few reports on his market.
34. Sergio Romo. As with Blanton, there has been little recent reporting on Romo’s destination, although it recently emerged that the Brewers had interest in Blanton before adding Feliz. Feliz and Santiago Casilla recently signing could conceivably lead teams still looking for late-inning help to turn to Romo, however.
38. Fernando Salas. There’s been virtually nothing on Salas this winter, except one report that made him one of an extremely long list of relievers connected to the Marlins’ before that team’s additions of Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa. One would think, though, that the 31-year-old would attract some late interest, particularly given his excellent 2016 stretch run with the Mets. Unlike Holland and Romo, he doesn’t have much closing experience, although he was successful in a half-season run as the Cardinals’ closer in 2011.
39. Boone Logan. The veteran lefty is one of several solid southpaw relief options remaining on the open market, including Wood (although it’s unclear whether Wood will start or relieve next year), Jerry Blevins and J.P. Howell. Other lefties (including Brett Cecil, Mike Dunn, Marc Rzepczynski, and, of course, Aroldis Chapman, although he’s clearly in a different category than the rest) have done quite well for themselves this winter; it’s unclear whether the crop of remaining lefty free agents will be able to do the same.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Originals
The past week’s original content from the MLB Trade Rumors staff:
- Given that the Dodgers don’t have a clear second base solution, I asked readers what the team will do about the position before the 2017 season begins. The majority of voters expect Los Angeles to acquire a second baseman via trade in advance of Opening Day.
- With Greg Holland serving as arguably the best reliever remaining in free agency, Jeff Todd polled readers on where the once-elite Royals closer will sign. The Nationals got the most support among the five listed clubs, but the plurality of votes went to the “Other/mystery team” option.
- We’re in the midst of arbitration season, leading Jeff to highlight various all-time arb records for relievers.
Arbitration Records: Relief Pitchers
We looked recently at some starting pitcher arbitration records (focusing specifically on one-year agreements), and today we’re turning to their bullpen counterparts. MLBTR contributor and arbitration projection system creator Matt Swartz has mined his data to help identify the top total earnings — and top year-over-year raises — to make this look possible.
Remember that you can keep tabs on all of this year’s arb action with MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker. As things stand, here are the current high-water marks for one-year relief pitcher salaries via arbitration:
Records For Single-Season Salary
- First-time eligible: Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox, $6.25MM (2009) — Papelbon was consistently and rather completely dominant during his first several years in the league, and was racking up 30+ saves from his first full season in the majors. That gave him unrivaled earning power among early-career relievers. Nobody has really come close to his first-year mark, though Trevor Rosenthal did earn $5.6MM last year. Breaking Papelbon’s record will take a big, multi-year push from a reliever who steps right into a closing role upon reaching the majors — say, Roberto Osuna or Edwin Diaz.
- Second-time eligible: Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox, $9.35MM (2010) — There he is again. Papelbon racked up 68 innings of 1.85 ERA pitching with 76 strikeouts and 38 saves in 2009, allowing him to build off of an already massive starting point.
- Third-time eligible: Zach Britton, Orioles, $11.4MM (2017) — The first blip for Papelbon came in his 2010 season, so we’ve seen several pitchers post higher figures in their third trip through the arb process. Britton’s history 2016 season allowed him to edge past Aroldis Chapman, who held the prior mark with his $11.32MM salary from 2016 — which itself just topped Kenley Jansen ($10.65MM). Those latter two pitchers, of course, have also now easily topped Papelbon’s long-standing record for a free-agent relief contract.
- Fourth-time eligible: Jim Johnson, Athletics, $10MM (2014) — This class is limited to Super Two players, so it excludes some notable earners. Britton is certain to break the record of Johnson, who preceded him as an Orioles closer, unless he has a disastrous season that results in a non-tender.
Looking just at the final numbers is interesting, but year-over-year raises are perhaps more informative. Regardless of a player’s starting point, they can catch up fast with a big season or two at the right point in their career.
Records For Year-Over-Year Raises
- First raise (second year of arb eligibility): Greg Holland, Royals, $3.575MM raise to $8.25MM total (2015) — A second-straight season of sub-1.50 ERA pitching with over 90 Ks and 45 saves landed Holland this major raise. Jeurys Familia came close to the mark ($3.325MM) and might have passed it had it not been for a serious offseason domestic violence matter that likely compromised his bargaining leverage.
- Second raise (third year of arb eligibility): Zach Britton, Orioles, $4.65MM raise to $11.4MM total (2017) — The mark had just been set by Mark Melancon, who took home a $4.25MM raise from the Pirates last winter, when Britton’s amazing 2016 campaign allowed him to easily set a new record. This one will be hard to top for future challengers.
- Third raise (fourth year of arb eligibility): Jim Johnson, Athletics, $3.5MM raise to $10MM total (2014) — Britton will easily beat this mark with a repeat of his 2016 season, but that’s hardly a given. He’ll certainly need to have a highly productive year to earn a bigger final bump than did Johnson, who in some ways punched his own ticket out of Baltimore with a 70 1/3 inning, 2.94 ERA, 50-save effort in 2013 that drove his earnings up to the point that the club dumped basically dumped his salary in an offseason trade to the Athletics.
Poll: What Will Dodgers Do About Second Base?
Having re-signed top free agents Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner and Rich Hill this winter, the Dodgers – winners of four straight NL West titles – once again look like World Series contenders as the 2017 campaign nears. One glaring weakness on the roster is at second base, where Dodgers president Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi have been on a well-documented quest to improve since the Cubs eliminated them from the NLCS last October.
Los Angeles’ search for help at the keystone has centered on the Twins’ Brian Dozier, who established himself as a very good player from 2013-15 and then performed like a star last year. Dozier slugged 42 home runs, becoming just the fourth second baseman in league history to swat 40-plus in a season, while also providing value on the bases and in the field.
With the Twins in a rebuild, it makes sense that the Dodgers have pursued Dozier, but they haven’t been able to pry him from Minnesota. It doesn’t appear they will, either, as the two sides are at an “impasse” because LA has refused to add prospects Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler or Brock Stewart to its Jose De Leon-fronted offer.
With a Dozier pickup seemingly unlikely, the Dodgers could look to other quality second basemen potentially on the trade market in the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and the Rays’ Logan Forsythe. Aside from their status as above-average players, those two share other similarities with Dozier: They’re under contract for two more years at affordable rates (Kinsler could demand an extension to waive his no-trade clause, though), meaning they won’t be easy to acquire, and they’re right-handed hitters. The latter point should be of considerable intrigue to the Dodgers, who had the majors’ worst offense against left-handed pitchers last season. All of Dozier, Kinsler and Forsythe hold their own versus southpaws and would greatly help the Dodgers’ cause in that regard.
If the Dodgers aren’t able to swing a trade for a high-impact second baseman, they’ll be left to pick from scraps in free agency and/or pin their hopes on uninspiring in-house options. The top name on the open market is Chase Utley, who has spent the past season-plus with the Dodgers. The longtime Phillie was fine in 2016, hitting .252/.319/.396 with 14 home runs and accounting for a league-average fWAR (2.0) in 565 plate appearances. His age (38) is a concern, however, as is the fact that lefty pitchers have confounded him in back-to-back seasons (.170/.245/.271 in a combined 212 PAs). Nevertheless, cognizant that they might not be able to improve at second via trade, the Dodgers have interest in re-signing Utley.
Whether it’s Utley, another free agent or a trade acquisition, it does seem as if an outsider will be the Dodgers’ primary second baseman in 2017. Their current options – Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Charlie Culberson, Jose Miguel Fernandez and backup catcher Austin Barnes – don’t carry much appeal as regulars. It’s still possible, granted, that the Dodgers will roll with that that group to at least begin the season. What do you think they’ll do?
(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)
Who will be the Dodgers' Opening Day second baseman?
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A trade acquisition: Dozier, Kinsler, Forsythe, etc. 56% (7,758)
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A free agent pickup: Utley or someone else 24% (3,416)
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A player currently in the organization 20% (2,783)
Total votes: 13,957
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Originals
The past week’s original content from the MLB Trade Rumors staff:
- Prior to Friday’s arbitration filing deadline, Steve Adams looked at the record-high salaries earned through the arb process by starting pitchers (based on service time). As it turned out, Jake Arrieta‘s $15.6375MM agreement with the Cubs set a new benchmark for starters in their third year of arbitration eligibility.
- Matt Swartz continued his Arbitration Breakdown series by looking at the cases of Orioles closer Zach Britton and Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado. Matt’s $11.4MM projection for Britton’s 2017 salary ended up exactly matching Britton’s actual agreement with Baltimore. Arenado, projected by Matt to earn $13.1MM, ended up signing a two-year, $29.5MM deal with Colorado.
- Luis Valbuena is still looking for a new team, and Connor Byrne speculates on some possible landing spots and breaks down the infielder’s pros and cons in a Free Agent Profile.
Arbitration Breakdown: Zach Britton
Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2017 projections are available right here.
Zach Britton had a phenomenal 2016 campaign for the Orioles, logging 47 saves and a 0.54 ERA over 67 innings while striking out 74 batters. As a result, the dominant sinkerballer is projected for a $4.65MM raise, from $6.75MM to $11.4MM. It is rare to find a season as dominant as Britton’s 2016, so it is not surprising that he is projected to get a raise bigger than Mark Melancon’s record $4.25MM raise last year for a third-time-eligible reliever.
Melancon saved 51 games in his platform season, four more than Britton, but his 2.23 ERA is far less impressive than Britton’s 0.54. His 62 punchouts also fell shy of Britton’s 74. Therefore, his $4.25MM raise is a plausible floor for Britton already. Britton besting this by $400K, as the model expects, seems reasonable.
Jim Johnson in 2013 got a $3.88MM raise, the second highest for a third time eligible reliever behind Melancon. He had 51 saves and a 2.49 ERA, so he also meets the criteria of logging a few more saves than Britton while posting a decidedly worse ERA.
However, since Melancon did save four more games, it is worth looking to see if guys with low ERAs but slightly fewer saves did any worse than Melancon did. Looking for guys with ERAs under 2 that were closers, no names emerge in the last five years other than Aroldis Chapman, who had 33 saves and a 1.63 ERA, but only got a $3.27MM raise. Clearly, every aspect of Britton’s case is much stronger than was Chapman’s, so this is not too concerning.
Heath Bell in 2011 is probably a stale comparable, although he did have a sub-2 ERA (he posted a 1.93 ERA) and he matched Britton’s 47 saves exactly. His $3.5MM raise would almost certainly be a floor for Britton as well.
Putting it all together, there is little reason to use any comparable other than Melancon here. All other potential third-time eligible relievers got smaller raises and had worse performances. Britton should easily clear Melancon’s $4.25MM number, and the model’s $4.65MM projected raise seems as reasonable as anything. Because Baltimore is now moving to a “file-and-trial” approach, though, the stakes are raised as the sides try to work out an agreement on the heels of Britton’s historic season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.