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Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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Since July 2015, the rebuilding Reds have been able to trade away Jay Bruce, Aroldis Chapman, Johnny Cueto, Todd Frazier and Mike Leake in exchange for young talent, including several players who contributed in 2016. The team’s remaining star player, Joey Votto, is still in the prime of his career and would likely be willing to waive his no-trade clause if the rebuilding is to continue. Which direction will the Reds go this offseason?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Joey Votto, 1B: $179MM through 2023 ($20MM club option in 2014; $7MM buyout; full no-trade clause)
  • Homer Bailey, SP: $69MM through 2019 ($25MM mutual option in 2020; $5MM buyout)
  • Brandon Phillips, 2B: $14MMMM through 2017 (full no-trade clause as part of 10-and-5 rights)
  • Raisel Iglesias, RP: est. $21MM through 2020 (can opt out and file for arbitration after 2017 season)
  • Devin Mesoraco, C: $20.45MM through 2018

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Free Agents

Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart; Cincinnati Reds Payroll Information

The 33-year-old Votto is still owed close to $180MM through his age-39 season in 2023. With the expectation that he’d be past his prime for at least a few of those seven seasons, teams probably aren’t willing to take on that kind of money and give up premium young assets to get him. Unless the Reds are willing to eat a good chunk of his remaining salary, Votto is likely staying put.

With that in mind, along with a halfway decent second half (35-37) that likely saved manager Bryan Price’s job, it’s possible that the rebuilding period has come to an end. Notable acquisitions in trades for veteran talent since the 2014-15 offseason include Rookie Davis, Anthony DeSclafani, Adam Duvall, Brandon Finnegan, Dilson Herrera, Keury Mella, Jose Peraza, Cody Reed and Eugenio Suarez. With that group assembled, general manager Dick Williams could look to add an impact player or two at the major league level as he takes over the baseball operations department from president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty this offseason.

Votto might’ve been the best hitter in baseball in 2016 after struggling out of the gate. From May 1st through the end of the season, he posted a 1.044 OPS with 27 homers, 33 doubles and 96 walks. That’s a pretty good starting point if you’re building a playoff-caliber lineup. But is there enough talent surrounding him?

After posting a sub-.300 on-base percentage through the first 1350 plate appearances of his career, speedster Billy Hamilton reached base nearly 37% of the time in the second half of the 2016 season. While it was only 197 plate appearances—he suffered a season-ending oblique injury in early September—it was a very encouraging development for a Reds lineup that also had a breakout from Duvall (33 HR, 31 2B) and strong second half performances from Brandon Phillips (.828 OPS), Suarez (.765 OPS) and right fielder Schebler (.818 OPS).

A return to health from catcher Devin Mesoraco would give the Reds an additional boost. The 28-year-old has played in only 39 games since signing a four-year contract extension after a terrific 2014 season (.893 OPS, 25 HR). The expectation is that he’ll be ready for Spring Training after undergoing shoulder surgery in May and and hip surgery in July. Even if Mesoraco is healthy, the Reds figure to ease him back to regular duties with Tucker Barnhart, a strong defender who posted a .702 OPS in 2016, having proved that he was a capable big league catcher.

Even if the rebuild is over, the Reds could still look to trade Phillips—he would need to waive his no-trade clause— and shortstop Zack Cozart, with Peraza and Herrera representing capable replacements up the middle. Phillips, who vetoed a trade to the Washington Nationals last offseason, is entering the final year of his contract and set to earn $14MM.

The market for a highly-paid second baseman entering his age-36 season probably isn’t great even if Phillips agrees to waive his no-trade clause. Cozart, on the other hand, should have plenty of interest, although the Reds likely missed their best shot at trading him at peak value. When the trade deadline passed on August 1st, Cozart was having a career year with a .779 OPS and 15 homers. He stayed put, however, and went into a 19-for-96 (.198 BA) with one homer before he was shut down with a sore knee in mid-September. The Mariners, who were reportedly close to acquiring Cozart prior to the trade deadline, could still have him on their radar. The Padres and Twins, who have Luis Sardinas and Jorge Polanco penciled in, respectively, could also be interested in acquiring Cozart for 2017.

While there are no clear holes in the lineup, Schebler’s success came in a small sample (.762 OPS in 82 games) and the addition of another corner outfielder, at least to create some competition and provide depth, wouldn’t be a bad idea. Peraza, who posted a .762 OPS with 21 stolen bases in 72 games as a rookie, could also push for playing time at several different spots. He started games at shortstop, center field, left field and second base in 2016. Even if a regular lineup spot isn’t in the cards for 2017, his versatility still allows him to fill a super-utility role with at least four starts per week.

The pitching staff, despite finishing the season with the 3rd worst ERA in baseball (4.91), also gave the team plenty of reasons for optimism with strong second half performances from both the starting rotation and bullpen.

After missing the first two months of the season with an oblique injury, DeSclafani was able to stabilize the top of the rotation with a 3.28 ERA and 70% quality start rate. Taking a flyer on Dan Straily, who was claimed off of waivers just before the start of the season, worked out well. The 27-year-old led the team in wins (14), starts (31), innings (191.1) and strikeouts (162) while posting a respectable 3.76 ERA. The team’s bevy of young starting pitchers mostly struggled, but Finnegan finished on a strong note with a 2.23 ERA over his last 11 starts.

Unsurprisingly, Homer Bailey’s return from Tommy John surgery was not a smooth one (6.65 ERA in six starts) and top prospects Reed and Robert Stephenson proved that they weren’t quite ready for the big leagues. However, Bailey should be closer to his pre-injury form next April and the talented duo of Reed and Stephenson are breakout candidates in 2017. Amir Garrett (2.55 ERA, 3.7 BB/9. 8.2 K/9 between Triple-A and Double-A) could also factor into the mix.

There are still too many question marks for the Reds to stand pat, however, and the addition of another reliable starting pitcher could be at the top of their offseason wish list. But as is the case with the other 29 teams in baseball, this is easier said than done. Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson and Ivan Nova are the best starters available in free agency and would likely cost more than the Reds are willing to pay to upgrade their rotation. The key will be finding a gem amongst the long list of free agent mid-rotation options who are coming off of unproductive and/or injury-riddled seasons.

While Raisel Iglesias could be the frontline starter that the Reds need, the closer’s role that he finished the season in might a permanent one. With his health and durability a long-term concern, the Reds had the 26-year-old pitch out of the bullpen after a disabled list stint that kept him out of action from mid-April until late July. As expected, he was very tough on opposing hitters and his ability to pitch multiple innings proved to be valuable. By season’s end, he was Price’s top choice to close out games. Michael Lorenzen, another former starter moved to the bullpen because of health concerns, also thrived in his new role and emerged as the primary setup man.

Jumbo Diaz and Blake Wood pitched well enough to enter 2017 with spots, as did lefty Tony Cingrani, who held down the closer’s job for a long stretch before struggling in September. Alejandro Chacin, who dominated at the Double-A level in 2016 (1.78 ERA, 11.1 K/9), could also make an impact next season.

Adding two veteran relievers who Price can lean on to help ease the workload of Iglesias and Lorenzen would go a long way in bringing the Reds back to respectability. Williams has expressed a willingness to spend money to upgrade this area of the roster, which could put them in the mix for one of the top free agent relievers not named Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon.

It’s unrealistic to think that the Reds can jump to the top of the pack in a very tough division. If they continue to build on the several bright spots from the second half, however, and add some talent to the big league roster this offseason, 81-85 wins isn’t out of the question in 2017.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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Despite a last-place finish and their third straight losing season, the Rays are looking to reload rather than rebuild for 2017.

[Rays depth chart & payroll, via Roster Resource]

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Evan Longoria, 3B: $94MM through 2022 ($13MM club option for 2023, $5MM buyout)
  • Chris Archer, SP: $20.25MM through 2019 (plus club options for 2020-21)
  • Logan Forsythe, 2B: $5.75MM through 2017 ($8.5MM club option for 2018, $1MM buyout)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

The Rays’ 68-94 record marked the first time the club had failed to crack the 70-win plateau since the 2007 season, which was also the last year that Tampa finished last in the AL East.  There’s an argument to be made that a low-payroll team in a tough division should consider starting from scratch after such a rough season, yet the Rays certainly seem to have more talent than your usual last-place team.  With so many interesting players on hand, it isn’t surprising that Rays president of baseball ops Matt Silverman and his front office is “hellbent on getting this team back into contention.”

That being said, Silverman and company have quite a bit of work to do in figuring out how to fix their roster’s flaws.  Pretty much every unit on the team is a “yeah, but…” situation.  The lineup finished with the sixth-most homers of any team in baseball, but only 13th of 30 teams in slugging percentage, 24th in runs scored, 27th in OBP and 28th in batting average.  The bullpen had Alex Colome enjoy a breakout season as closer, but the relief corps as a whole ranked in the bottom half of the league in ERA, K/9, BB/9 and HR/9.  The Rays’ rotation has long been touted for their collection of young arms, but they finished middle-of-the-pack in most starting pitching categories, and lost one of their young arms when Matt Moore was traded to the Giants at the deadline.

Let’s begin with the rotation, which stands as Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Blake Snell, Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly.  Archer is looking to bounce back from something of a hard-luck year that saw a big spike in his home run totals, though most of his issues came only in the first half of the season.  Smyly is also looking for a rebound year, Snell will enter his first full year in the bigs and Cobb will be looking for a full campaign after making just five starts in 2016 as he returned from Tommy John surgery.

Tampa’s starting five has a lot of talent, though on the whole is still weighed more towards promise than proven MLB results.  Matt Andriese is also on hand as a rotation candidate, and I could be underrating his shot at a starting job.  He posted the same 2.0 fWAR as Odorizzi and Smyly despite pitching significantly fewer innings, and Andriese topped them both in BB/9, home run rate, grounder rate, FIP, xXIP and SIERA.  These stats aside, Andriese pitched quite a bit better in his 22 2/3 relief innings than he did in 105 IP as a starter, so the Rays could feel the righty is needed in the bullpen.  He could easily slide back into the rotation for a spot start or perhaps a more permanent role change if Smyly, Cobb or Snell struggle.

With some starting depth available, could the Rays deal another arm?  Archer and Odorizzi generated a lot of attention at the trade deadline before Moore was shipped out, and Smyly could also draw interest given his potential and two remaining years of control.  This offseason’s free agent starting pitching market is painfully thin, so Silverman could demand an even larger return for one of his top starters now than he did at the deadline.  Barring a blockbuster offer, I’d guess it would still be surprising to see the Rays deal Archer given his team-friendly contract (plus, most teams planning to contend don’t trade their ace).  Odorizzi and Smyly, however, could be shopped given their rising arbitration costs.

In the event of a starting pitching trade, Andriese could be elevated to the rotation or the Rays could pursue a veteran on a minor league deal to provide depth or compete for the fifth starter’s job.  Tampa Bay could also look to its farm system (i.e. Dylan Floro, Taylor Guerrieri or Brent Honeywell) for added starting or relief depth.

Any of these young arms could see work in relief anyway, as there is certainly room for improvement in the bullpen.  The Rays will be building from the back of the bullpen outwards, as while Colome got a bit of peripheral luck (namely a whopping 93% strand rate), the Rays probably feel pretty good about their ninth-inning situation.  Beyond Colome, southpaw Xavier Cedeno and righty Danny Farquhar had good seasons, long reliever Erasmo Ramirez was at least able to eat innings, and former closer Brad Boxberger is hoping to bounce back from an injury-ravaged year.  Boxberger will look for better health and better control (as per his ungainly 7.03 BB/9 over 24 1/3 innings), and while the Rays would hope Boxberger is able to serve as a setup man, they can’t be counting on much in the wake of his lost season.

If Tampa looks to free agency to bolster the pen, expect the team to pursue veterans on inexpensive one-year deals in the hopes of finding a reclamation project.  One option could be to re-sign a familiar face in Kevin Jepsen, who struggled badly last year but posted strong relief numbers in 2014-15.

As always, don’t expect the Rays to be big spenders this winter.  After pushing payroll into the $74-75MM range in 2014 and 2015 in hopes of making a pennant run, the 2016 Opening Day payroll dropped to roughly $66.68MM.  Tampa already has approximately $58.2MM committed to 14 players for 2017, between the slightly more than $25MM guaranteed to Archer, Logan Forsythe and Evan Longoria and the $33.2MM projected to the club’s large arbitration class.

Smyly and Odorizzi have the highest price tags of those 11 arb-eligible players, and as I noted earlier, the Rays could free up some payroll space by trading either.  Ramirez’s $3.5MM projected salary could make him a trade chip as well.  Despite his interesting usage as an old-school fireman type of reliever, Ramirez’s numbers weren’t much more than average, so he could be seen as expendable.

Trading Longoria would free up the most money, of course, though there isn’t any sign that the Rays would deal their franchise player.  This is another case where, if the Rays are serious about contending, they’re pretty unlikely to deal an established star, especially since Tampa still has quite a few question marks around the diamond.  Third base is a position the Rays don’t have to worry about thanks to Longoria, with second base (Forsythe) and center (Kevin Kiermaier) also not positions of need.

The Rays believe they have an answer at shortstop in the form of Matt Duffy, acquired in the Moore trade.  Duffy was an outstanding third base defender over two seasons in San Francisco though he has only played 28 games at short in the big leagues.  Duffy recently underwent surgery to fix an Achilles tendon issue that bothered him all season and quite likely contributed to his poor year at the plate.  It could be that Duffy’s eventual future is as a utilityman given that top shortstop prospects Daniel Robertson and Willy Adames are both in the pipeline, but for now, Tampa Bay hopes Duffy can solidify a position that has been an issue.

Steven Souza is still the incumbent right fielder, though the Rays are still looking for a breakout from the 27-year-old.  Brad Miller and Corey Dickerson are penciled in at first base and left field, respectively, with Dickerson stepping up as defender last year after a few subpar years in left with the Rockies.  Miller has struggled with the glove pretty much everywhere he’s played around the diamond, though the Rays can live with some defensive issues at the less-critical position of first as long as Miller keeps slugging.  Acquired in a six-player deal with the Mariners last winter, Miller delivered just the 11th 30-homer season in Rays history.

Miller and Dickerson are both left-handed hitters who haven’t shown much against left-handed pitching, so the Rays could use a right-handed bat or two to platoon at first or in left field.  Richie Shaffer and Mikie Mahtook are internal options for these role, though Shaffer has actually hit righties much better over his brief career, while Mahtook couldn’t hit anything (39 wRC+) over 196 plate appearances last season.  Mahtook is at least ticketed for the fourth outfielder job given his ability to handle all three outfield spots.  First baseman Casey Gillaspie, the Rays’ first-round pick in the 2014 draft, hit very well in his first taste of Triple-A action last season and could earn himself a big league platoon role with a big Spring Training.

Looking at the 2016-17 free agent list for lefty-mashing bats in the Rays’ price range, players like Dae-Ho Lee or Franklin Gutierrez could be considered to join the 1B/DH/LF mix.  Sean Rodriguez, a former Ray, would also fit as a right-handed bat though his big 2016 numbers and defensive versatility may earn him a bigger contract than Tampa can afford.

One free agent name that jumps out is the guy the Rays signed last winter as a lefty-masher.  Steve Pearce posted an outstanding .908 OPS over 232 PA for the Rays before being dealt to Baltimore at the trade deadline.  Unfortunately for Pearce, a flexor mass injury in his right forearm limited his time with the O’s and he underwent surgery to fix the problem in late September.  Pearce will be sidelined until late January at the earliest and late March in a worst-case scenario, so until his diagnosis becomes clear, it’s hard to see him netting more than a one-year deal.  The Rays could offer Pearce a chance to return to a familiar surrounding and potentially pick up there he left off in 2016, playing either at first or in left when a southpaw is on the mound.  To sweeten the deal, the Rays could perhaps even take a flier on Pearce on a low-cost two-year deal to offer the veteran more long-term security.

Speaking of fliers, and this is purely speculation on my part, the Rays could use their unsettled catcher and DH spots as a way of looking into the Wilson Ramos market.  Such a scenario would’ve been unthinkable a few weeks ago, when Ramos was on pace to score perhaps as much as a five-year deal as the top free agent catcher on the market.  Then, unfortunately, Ramos suffered a torn right ACL for the second time in his career, ending his season and throwing his near-future into total uncertainty.  It won’t be known how much time Ramos will miss until he actually has his surgery, though he himself speculated that if he can’t physically handle regular catching duties, he could be limited to playing for AL teams due to the designated hitter rule.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in that previous link, the Tropicana Field turf may not be an ideal landing spot for a catcher with bad knees, plus the Rays might still not be able to afford Ramos even if he ends up taking some type of prorated or incentive-heavy contract.  It would behoove the Rays to explore all options behind the plate, however, given how catcher has been such a problem area for years.  None of the catchers in the mix last year (Wilson, Curt Casali, Luke Maile, Hank Conger) did much to solve that problem, either offensively or defensively.

The Rays can’t afford Matt Wieters, but second-tier free agent catchers like Nick Hundley or Jason Castro could potentially be options if the Rays are willing to splurge (by their standards) on a notable multi-year contract.  The likes of Carlos Ruiz, Alex Avila or Chris Iannetta would be even cheaper and maybe more realistic options.  This offseason’s class is about as wide as a free agent catching market gets, so Tampa Bay can go in many directions for a sorely-needed upgrade.

Since free agency is something of a luxury for the Rays, expect Silverman to continue mining the trade market, as he did in his first two offseasons running Tampa’s front office.  The baseball operations head has done a good job of adding new building blocks for expendable parts, though clearly Silverman hasn’t been able to find the ideal mix for plugging all the holes on the roster.  This winter could go a long way towards determining the Rays’ future direction, as if they can’t get back on the winning track in 2017, hard questions may need to be asked about whether this core group of players are viable cornerstones for a contender or if a full rebuild could finally be necessary.

MLBTR Mailbag: Orioles, Carter, Holland, Qualifying Offers

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Thanks again for all of the questions we received for this week’s Mailbag. As you know, we can only pick a short few, but you can ask the MLBTR staff considerably more questions during our three weekly chats — Tuesdays at 2pm CT with myself, Wednesdays at 6:30pm CT with Jason Martinez and Thursdays at 2pm CT with Jeff Todd. Onto this week’s questions…

The Orioles desperately need an infusion of OBP, and appear to have a RF spot open for next season. The question is… who might be available via FA or trade that could provide that at a cost the team can afford? Jon Jay? Matt Joyce as a strict platoon with Joey Rickard? Ryan Braun if Milwaukee eats a bunch of that contract? Choo if Texas eats a bunch of that contract? I just don’t think that a reincarnated Michael Bourn is the answer. Thanks. — Patrick D.

Agreed that Bourn isn’t any kind of answer for them in right field. And, as impressive as Mark Trumbo’s power was this season, his glovework in right field negated a fair bit of the value his home runs provided. He’s better-suited at first base, but with Chris Davis’ presence, that’s not really an option.

The Brewers haven’t shown much of an inclination to eat a huge amount of Braun’s contract, and the more of it they covered, the greater the return they’d seek. As this year’s trade deadline exemplified, the Orioles aren’t exactly deep in top-tier prospects. Choo is older than Braun and comes with durability question marks (plus platoon issues).

On paper, a Rickard/Joyce platoon has at least a chance of being productive at the plate, but Rickard drew poor defensive ratings in the outfield this season and looked lost against right-handers, whom he’d have to face at least occasionally even in a platoon setting. Moreover, patchwork platoon setups in the corner outfield have been a staple for the O’s for years now without terrific results. Baltimore has cycled through names like Nolan Reimold, Delmon Young, Dariel Alvarez, Chris Dickerson, David Lough, Travis Snider and many others in recent years while trying to patch up the outfield corners. And Hyun Soo Kim will already require some degree of platooning in left field in 2017.

Jay would make a nice outfield target for Baltimore, given his career .352 OBP and relatively even platoon splits. Plus, he’d probably like the idea of rebuilding some value in a more hitter-friendly division/ball park and would provide some insurance if center fielder Adam Jones needs a rest or suffers an injury. That fit makes the most sense of anyone on the free-agent market, unless the Orioles want to beat the market for Jose Bautista and continue to live with questionable defense in right field, which seems unlikely. Colby Rasmus, Nori Aoki and non-tender candidate Ben Revere all had down seasons, and I doubt Dexter Fowler’s camp is going to be anxious to rekindle talks following last winter’s debacle. (Plus, he figures to be rather expensive.) Matt Holliday can still hit but has never been a right fielder (or even a particularly great defensive left fielder.) Revere intrigues me as a buy-low candidate, but he’s never been a big OBP guy. Likewise, Josh Reddick has only a .316 career OBP. Though he has trended up in that regard  of late, he might be out of the O’s price range. All things considered, Jay makes a good bit of sense in Baltimore.

Should the Brewers keep, non-tender Chris Carter, or maybe try to trade him? — N.

I don’t see any real cause to non-tender him, even if his steep $8.1MM salary projection ends up being accurate. Milwaukee has so very little committed elsewhere on the payroll that they can handle that without much trouble, and fans like seeing home runs. Carter hasn’t had much value in the past — hence last winter’s non-tender — so considering that and a fairly sizable bump in salary, I doubt there will be many clubs lining up strong offers to get him. But, he was a solid bat last season even with the punchouts, and the Brewers don’t have anyone immediately pushing for his job at first base. Keep him around and, barring a surprising change in his valuation on this winter’s trade market, see if a club needs some DH/1B help at next summer. If not — at least you have another season of a 40-homer bat with a penchant for tape-measure shots to elicit some admiration from those attending the games.

What kind of contract do you see Greg Holland fetching? Maybe a one-year deal with some high AAV team/mutual options? — Shay C.

I don’t really envision Holland and Scott Boras jumping on board with a team option when Holland should theoretically be ready to suit up for Spring Training next season. I’m leaning toward a two-year deal with a lower salary in the first season and a steeper one in year two — possibly something in the vein of $12-16MM total. Alternatively, Boras and Holland could try to go the Brian Wilson route and sign a one-year deal with a steep player option for the second season. That’s effectively an opt-out clause, and it’s pure downside for the team, so I have a tougher time seeing it.

All that being said, that kind of contract has obviously been given out before, and there will be intense demand for high-upside pen arms. The fact of the matter is that a lot of mediocre relief arms are going to get two- and in a few cases even three-year deals this winter — there aren’t tons of other places to spend your money — and some team could look at Holland as an opportunity to add a guy that was not long ago projected to compete with Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen for the top relief contract this winter at what will be a relatively bargain rate. Two years and $12-16MM might seem steep for a guy that didn’t pitch this year, but that’s the type of money that teams pay fourth outfielders (Chris Young) and back-of-the-rotation starters (the other Chris Young, Mike Pelfrey). If some team thinks it can get a legitimate relief ace in Holland — or even something close to it — why not?

How many QO’s are given out this year and who do you think gets them? — Adam D.

I’ll break this up into a couple of categories: Locks for qualifying offers and guys that I can see getting consideration.

For locks, I’d list Yoenis Cespedes, Edwin Encarnacion, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Jeremy Hellickson, Jose Bautista, Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond and Mark Trumbo. That’s nine right there.

As for players that I think have a chance of receiving them — we’ll say 20 percent or more, to put a rough number on it… basically as a means of illustrating that it wouldn’t shock me — I’ll list Neil Walker, Michael Saunders, Wilson Ramos, Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli and Matt Wieters.

Of that bunch, I do think Walker will still get one, barring a huge setback in his recovery from back surgery. I lean toward giving one to Saunders, as I don’t think there’s huge downside to having him at one year and $16-17MM, but I’m aware of his terrible second half, and not everyone on the MLBTR staff shares that viewpoint with me.

I’d like to wait until after Ramos’ surgery before making a prediction, but I’d lean toward no on the QO unless there’s confidence that he can be ready in mid-2017 and a belief that he’ll have multi-year interest elsewhere. I’d steer clear of Napoli, Morales and Wieters as well, though sticking either Napoli or Morales with a QO could lead to an accelerated two-year deal worth a few million more than the QO value, which isn’t a bad outcome — say, $24-28MM. It’s also not clear whether the Indians or Royals will be okay with taking such a big payroll hit if either of those sluggers were to accept. Wieters accepted last season and would probably again this year after a solid but not great year. That’s not the worst situation, but the O’s have enough questions elsewhere on the roster — and, perhaps, enough of a payroll crunch — that they needn’t be allocating ~$17MM to a catcher that hasn’t been a decidedly above-average bat over the life of a full season since 2011-12.

So that puts me at 11 QOs that I feel like should be offered. Realistically, I can see both Walker and Saunders not getting them, and some from my group of “no” players receiving them. I’ll estimate between 10 and 13 are ultimately extended.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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The rebuilding Braves didn’t show much improvement in the standings, ending up with a 68-93 record that landed them the fifth overall pick in the 2017 draft. But Atlanta ended the year on a 12-and-2 tear that represented a high note on which to finish. With a much-anticipated new ballpark on the horizon and an expectation of significant financial outlays at the major league level, hopes are high … but just how high should they be?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Free Agents

Atlanta Braves Depth Chart; Atlanta Braves Payroll Information

In some ways, the task to date has been straightforward for Atlanta GM John Coppolella and president of baseball operations John Hart: with a prioritization of value over need, and talent over results, he set out to add as much controllable talent as possible. That has resulted in a highly-regarded farm system that is increasingly pushing players onto the major league roster. But now, the balance begins to get a bit trickier.

The Braves spoke of improving at the major league level in 2016, and that didn’t really occur. But Coppolella and company nevertheless intend to take a step toward focusing on major league results in the coming campaign. The first order of business was choosing a manager, with interim skipper Brian Snitker receiving the permanent nod after delivering solid results down the stretch.

The shifting mindset is most evident in regard to the starting rotation, where Coppolella says at least two additions are planned. Much of the rebuild has focused on adding pre-MLB arms, a fair number of them at the upper levels of the minors, but to date that hasn’t led to much productivity at the major league level. Atlanta’s rotation was one of the worst in all of baseball last year, with only Julio Teheran posting a full season’s worth of quality starts.

Whether or not Teheran and his appealing contract reach the trading block has long been the source of intrigue, but it may be that the Braves will no longer seriously pursue such a path — unless, at least, there’s a truly overwhelming offer to be had that includes major league-ready talent. Otherwise, Mike Foltynewicz seemingly showed enough (4.31 ERA, 8.1 K/9 vs. 2.6 BB/9 in 123 1/3 innings) to warrant a spot in next year’s rotation, but the rest of the staff seems to be up for grabs.

If Atlanta does add two established pitchers to its stable — no small feat on a barren market for starters — then that would appear to leave a single job available for the remaining internal options. Josh Collmenter, who was added late in the year, could take a starter’s role or end up as a swingman. Less-established hurlers such as Matt Wisler, John Gant, Aaron Blair, Williams Perez, and Tyrell Jenkins may also battle for jobs, but will need to impress in camp to avoid a trip back to Triple-A Gwinnett. Some pitchers who have yet to make their major league debuts could ultimately enter the mix as the season progresses, including Chris Ellis, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, and breakout talent Patrick Weigel.

Looking at the market for the pair of arms that Atlanta desires, there are a variety of possible approaches for the team to consider. Following the Phillies’ plan a winter ago — targeting bounceback veterans on short-term, reasonably expensive contracts — could lead the Braves to pursue a pitcher such as Jason Hammel or Jaime Garcia via trade. There are bigger fish that could be available from other organizations, though indications from the team are that it won’t part with the top prospects that would be needed to land a true top-of-the-rotation arm. The free agent market does contain some options, of course. It would be surprising to see the Braves chase Rich Hill, the highest-upside arm available, but they could conceivably look into Jeremy Hellickson or Ivan Nova while also chasing value further down the market — where pitchers like Clay Buchholz, Charlie Morton, Edinson Volquez, and Doug Fister.

The bullpen could be a landing spot for a few of those pitchers, but seems likely to be anchored by Arodys Vizcaino — who’ll look to bounce back after a very rough second half that was impacted by shoulder problems — and veteran Jim Johnson, who just re-upped for two more years. Young fireballer Mauricio Cabrera has also likely locked up a spot, though his peripherals (7.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 49.1% groundball rate) didn’t quite mach his ERA (2.82) and outrageous average velocity (an even 100 mph). Jose Ramirez showed well in his first extensive taste in the majors, Chris Withrow may have the track on a job if he can return to health, and Ian Krol will likely be the top lefty after a nice bounceback season. With other names in the mix as well, the pen doesn’t figure to be an area of focus this winter, though certainly a veteran arm could end up being added here as well.

Much the same holds true of the outfield, which received a boost from Matt Kemp after his mid-season acquisition. The veteran showed signs of a resurgence after coming over in a swap that allowed the Braves to jettison Hector Olivera. When the dust settled, Atlanta was left on the hook for $8.5MM annually over the next three years over and above Olivera’s own $28.5MM in remaining obligations. (They’ll still actually pay Kemp the $54.5MM reflected above.) The 32-year-old swatted a dozen long balls in 241 plate appearances, and more importantly raised his overall batting line to .280/.336/.519. He’d still be a better fit in the American League, but that’s reasonably-priced pop even given his defensive limitations.

The club will have some potential decisions to make in the outfield, though. Ender Inciarte remains the obvious choice in center after putting up another season of average hitting combined with stellar defense and baserunning. Nick Markakis remains entrenched in right. Though he returned to hitting low-double-digit home runs (13 this year), he’s still only an average producer on offense. His glove does continue to boost his value, but Markakis probably doesn’t profile as a first-division regular at this stage of his career. Whether the Braves can find a taker for a big portion of his remaining salary may be the difference in determining the near-term fate of Mallex Smith, who could end up opening the year at Triple-A after a solid but hardly commanding rookie-year performance.

It’s also not clear whether Atlanta will push hard to make changes in the infield — at least in the traditional sense of signing a free agent to plug a hole — though certainly creative possibilities can’t be discounted. Freddie Freeman is obviously a lock at first base, where he’ll aim to repeat a stellar 2016. And Dansby Swanson is nearly as good a bet to take the everyday job at short that he handled well upon his late-season call-up.

At second and third, the Braves have relatively little need to act, but certainly could if the right opportunity arose. The former is being held open for Ozzie Albies, who’ll compete for a job out of camp but may spend a bit more time in the upper minors before making his ascent — particularly since he won’t be able to play in the Arizona Fall League after suffering a late-season olecranon fracture. Though he struggled at Triple-A, Albies posted a monster .321/.391/.467 batting line with 21 stolen bases in 371 plate appearances at Double-A last year, playing at just 19 years of age. With Jace Peterson available at second and Daniel Castro on hand as a utility option, expectations are that Atlanta will keep relatively quiet in this area while waiting for Albies.

At the hot corner, Adonis Garcia probably showed enough down the stretch to obviate the need for a short-term signing. After a rough start, the 31-year-old posted a .293/.333/.456 batting line with nine home runs over his 301 plate appearances and drew more promising reviews of his glovework down the stretch. He could be pushed in camp, though, by youngster Rio Ruiz, who had a solid .271/.355/.400 campaign at Triple-A in his age-22 season. Though there’s not a need here, strictly speaking, it is an area where the team could look to upgrade if there’s a chance to add a high-quality player.

If there’s a spot other than the rotation that will almost certainly see some change, it’s behind the plate. Tyler Flowers will be back after a strong season in which he ran up a 109 OPS+ while appearing in 83 games. Journeyman Anthony Recker is controllable as well, and was even more impressive (.278/.394/.433) in his 112 plate appearances. But with Opening Day starter A.J. Pierzynski set to depart, and a mandate to improve, there has been plenty of chatter about the possibilities for an upgrade.

The free agent catching market took a huge hit with the recent ACL tear of Wilson Ramos, and it had already lost Francisco Cervelli when he agreed to an extension with the Pirates earlier in the season. But there are still at least a few near-everyday players set to reach the open market — chiefly, Matt Wieters (who has ties to the Atlanta area) and Jason Castro — and the trade market could provide some avenues as well. Atlanta has been connected, in particular, with long-time star Brian McCann, though it doesn’t seem as if the Yankees will part with him for quite as low a price as the Braves would prefer to pay. A bounceback candidate such as Derek Norris could also be pursued if the team’s preferred options aren’t achievable.

All told, there are a number of places on this roster that a clear contending team would deem in need of an upgrade. For Atlanta, though, there needs to be greater balance, lest future commitments again tie the organization’s hands. Coppolella has said that the club will have much more to spend than usual, but a truly all-in approach would be a major surprise. What investments the team does make figure to play a fairly significant role in dictating the team’s timeline to return to true contention.

MLBTR Originals

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MLBTR’s original features from this week:

  • MLBTR welcomed back former Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs and longtime reliever Burke Badenhop for a pair of guest pieces. Ryan offered insight into how September baseball affected his career (and how it impacts other major leaguers). Meanwhile, Burke explained what free agency was like for him and why reaching the open market is such an important milestone for players.
  • Jeff Todd honored and thanked legendary Dodgers play-by-play man Vin Scully, who called the final game of his incredible 67-year tenure with the team last Sunday.
  • In the first edition of this year’s 30-team “Offseason Outlook” series, Charlie Wilmoth set a course for the Pirates’ winter.
  • Speaking of the Pirates, Jeff surveyed readers whether the club should trade five-time All-Star center fielder Andrew McCutchen in the coming months. In other MLBTR polls, Mark Polishuk asked which team will win this year’s World Series, while Jeff questioned if the Mets should pick up outfielder Jay Bruce’s $13MM option. Finally, Charlie wondered if Major League Baseball should alter its September roster expansion rules.
  • Jeff continued MLBTR’s “Three Needs” series with a look ahead to the Athletics’ offseason.

Poll: Should MLB Change September Roster Expansion Rules?

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Earlier this week, former Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs penned a guest piece for MLBTR in which he offered a former player’s take on the September expansion of MLB active rosters from 25 to 40. Spilborghs’ opinion was a nuanced one, but he noted that most coaches and players intensely dislike roster expansion, noting that it slows the pace of games and prevents MLB role players from getting playing time.

Roster expansion rules have come in for criticism with beat writers recently as well, due in part to the long game times and frequent pitching changes that now seem so characteristic of late-season baseball. Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, for example, described a recent Phillies/Mets series as “a perverted type of baseball,” noting that one game took nearly four hours and featured 38 players, including two relievers who had pitched not at all, or close to not at all, in the previous two weeks. Those sorts of figures are, unfortunately, quite common in September, as contenders and non-contenders alike attempt to outmaneuver one another with seemingly limitless situational matchups.

“Let’s put it this way: That’s the thing about September,” said Phillies manager Pete Mackanin, via Gelb. “They have a lefty for every righty I bring in and vice versa. That’s what makes it so difficult. There’s no moves you can make that can’t be countered. So, what are you going to do?”

Gelb notes that September roster expansion could be part of this winter’s round of CBA negotiations. One possible solution would be a rule that allows teams to expand their active rosters in September, as they do now, but to declare a 25-man roster for each game. Such a rule might somewhat limit substitutions and pitching changes, thereby reducing game times, although it would do little to address Spilborghs’ concern about veteran role players losing out on playing time.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, for his part, agrees that roster expansion rules should be reformed. “I’m not looking to take away service time or anything like that, but I do think it would make sense to get to a situation where we played out September games closer to the rules that we play with the rest of the year,” he says. “I don’t think 18 pitchers in a game is a good thing.”

Of course, the benefits of expanded rosters are almost as easy to see as the drawbacks. Young players, particularly those on non-contending teams, can get their first tastes of big-league action, while managers and executives are more easily able to watch their young players against top competition. Also, the sheer number of bodies available helps teams get to the end of a lengthy 162-game season, by which point many established players are struggling with nagging injuries.

So what should MLB do about roster expansion? We’ll begin with a simple poll question about whether the rules should change. If you have a suggestion for how the rules should change, share it in the comments.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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After a down season in 2016, the Pirates will face a number of challenges as they try to regroup.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Before the season, Pirates GM Neal Huntington controversially described 2016 as a “bridge year,” which he later clarified meant the club was transitioning from a core of Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, A.J. Burnett, Pedro Alvarez and Russell Martin to one led by McCutchen, Starling Marte, Gerrit Cole, Mark Melancon and Gregory Polanco, as well as newcomers Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell and Tyler Glasnow. The Pirates stumbled across that bridge, winning just 78 games in 2016 after three straight playoff berths, and now they’re trying to figure out what’s on the other side.

Much went wrong for the Pirates in 2016, beginning with McCutchen’s abrupt, and huge, step backwards. Cole had arm trouble and wasn’t as effective as he’d been in 2015, and Melancon, who was about to become a free agent anyway, ended up traded to Washington for fellow reliever Felipe Rivero and a prospect.

Not much went right for other members of Huntington’s new core, either. Catcher Francisco Cervelli, whom the Pirates extended in July, struggled with a broken hand and only hit one home run all season (although he did have a .377  OBP). Second baseman Josh Harrison, who’d signed an extension in 2015, had an underwhelming year, batting .283/.311/.388, and he ended the season on the DL. And lefty Francisco Liriano, whom the Pirates had signed through 2017, struggled and then was shipped to Toronto in a baffling salary dump that also cost the Bucs two good prospects.

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Player’s Perspective: September Roster Expansion

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Ryan Spilborghs is a former big league outfielder. He is currently a color analyst for the Colorado Rockies on Root Sports Rocky Mountain and also works for MLB Network Radio. He came up in the Rockies organization and appeared for the club at the major league level between 2005 and 2011, playing a significant role in Colorado’s 2007 and 2009 postseason runs. Ryan also spent time with the Indians and Rangers organizations in 2012 before finishing out his playing career with Japan’s Seibu Lions in 2013. MLBTR is glad to welcome him as a contributor to our Player’s Perspective series.

Do you love September baseball? How can you not, with the baseball season coming down to the wire? Major League Baseball got it right by adding two extra wild card teams. More teams are in the conversation for a playoff spot than ever before. How many times have you heard teams say, “We just want a chance to play meaningful games in September?”

We’re in October now, of course, and this is when it really gets good. But I wanted to explain what it’s like to make it through that last month of the regular season as a player — whether or not your team ends up making the postseason.

For organizations that are out of the playoff race, especially, September gives opportunity by way of expanded rosters. Players, front offices and fans get to glimpse what their future holds. However, if you were to survey coaches and players about September baseball, most will say they hate it. Can you name another major sport that changes the rules during the most important time of their season?

There is a laundry list of reasons why September baseball is despised by most, from competitive imbalance to pace of play to personal accolades and incentives.

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Three Needs: Oakland Athletics

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We’ll continue here with our “Three Needs” series, in which we break down a few high-level needs of teams that fell out of contention early. (Soon, we’ll take full looks at every team’s offseason outlook.)

For the Athletics, a last-place finish in the AL West for the second straight year probably won’t spur a full-blown rebuild — it’s just not how the team has operated — but will likely lead to a fair bit of roster turnover this winter.

1. Improve the speed and defense.

If Oakland’s combined position-player fWAR from 2016 was doubled, it would still be nearly a win shy of the next-to-worst team in baseball. Though the team’s hitting was below-average (91 wRC+), it was the bottom-of-the-barrel baserunning and defense that did most of the damage.

The A’s had company in their troubles on the bases, with the Cardinals, Angels, and Tigers also in the conversation for worst in the game. But on defense, the A’s were far and away the least gloveable team in the league, by measure of both UZR and DRS. And that’s before accounting fully for the work behind the dish, where primary catcher Steven Vogt is one of the lowest-rated receivers in baseball (see here and here).

There may not be a lot of opportunity to change things in the infield beyond hoping for internal improvement. Moving Danny Valencia off of third base helps, but Ryon Healy isn’t an inspiring defensive choice either. Marcus Semien had a whole lot less errors, at least, so perhaps he can drive some further improvement next year at short. If he can return to health, Jed Lowrie will be looking to improve on his metrics in limited action this season at second, but age and injury pose questions. At first, Yonder Alonso has typically graded well, but had his worst season by the metrics in 2016. (Of course, his bat was a bigger problem.)

While consideration should be given to tweaking that alignment, the outfield is the key area that Oakland can target to add some speed and glovework. Read on for more on that area of need:

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In Appreciation Of Vin Scully

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Many have shared their appreciation of legendary Dodgers broadcaster Vin Scully as he steps away from the microphone after 67 magical seasons. MLBTR joins them in honoring one of the most uniquely compelling figures in sports history.

Chances are, you didn’t first fall in love with baseball by reading about it on the internet. More than likely, it happened as you sat amidst the peanut shells at a ballpark; smelled the leather of a new mitt; stumbled onto a Wrigley day game on WGN while flipping through the channels one summer; heard your dad grumbling about a blown call in last night’s contest; picked up the glorious tones of a golden-voiced announcer through an intermittently-fading radio signal.

However it happened, what led you here was likely something quite different from the statistics, money, and rules that we discuss on a daily basis. Probably, the reason you care about the player transactions that shape Major League Baseball is that you first found yourself intoxicated by the intricate details of the game itself, while absorbing it as a fan and amateur participant.

Baseball is cherished by those who have found it because it is exponentially rewarding in its repetitive, utterly simple details. Look closer and you’re drawn further in. The punctuating moments have such meaning only because they emerge from a layered canvas, with all its patina.

And that is why Vin Scully, the now-former Dodgers broadcaster, is so important and so meaningful — and not just because he calls a good game. For all his great calls, which we’ve enjoyably relived in recent weeks, his singular excellence resided in the mundane.

Just how is that batter digging in? Where’s the happiest kid in the stands and what is it about this pleasant good evening that he’s enjoying so much? Who, really, is this mop-up pitcher who’ll handle the eighth inning of a meaningless, late-season blowout? What is the count, and the score, and how does that relate to the standings and the [insert memory/history lesson/interesting fact] and oh look! just what are those brawling players shouting at each other (give or take)?

Sep 23, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; American broadcaster Vin Scully (right) is introduced with wife Sandra Scully (left) for Vin Scully appreciation night prior to the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball by Vin is sharing memories, imparting and receiving wisdom, experiencing an event with the like-minded while seeking out and valuing different perspectives, exhibiting vigorous curiosity, accumulating and disseminating knowledge, building standing in a community with (and through) humility and gratitude, deriving meaning from the commonplace — whether times or moments are good or bad.

He didn’t just provide us with the best way to take in a ballgame. Broader lessons reside in the countless hours that Scully spoke into a microphone — often from the words themselves, but also from the steady cheer of the man who delivered them and the sheer fact that he did it for so long and with such obvious care. In a way, if we listened closely, he showed us how to navigate our lives, with all their ups and downs but also their sometimes-monotonous routines and easily-overlooked opportunities for appreciation.

It is bittersweet to think these thoughts now, and not just because we’ll no longer hear Scully’s perfect narration of yet another 9 innings — never again listen to his gentle cadence guide us through the game — but because baseball and life intersected more jarringly last Sunday.

The loss of Jose Fernandez was an unthinkable tragedy, a gut punch not only to his loved ones, but also — in a different but still-meaningful way — to most anyone who follows the game of baseball. That devastating blow reinforces Scully’s essential meaning, because Fernandez — whose immigrant journey was every bit as quintessentially American as Scully’s New York-to-Los Angeles epic — possessed an infectious joi de vivre different in form, but not in kind, from Scully’s.

Sep 23, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; American broadcaster Vin Scully reacts as a banner is unveiled during the seventh inning stretch during the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Scully’s dependability and longevity, and Fernandez’s fleeting brilliance and flair, speak to the same fundamental messages: Life is best lived buoyantly. Its many splendors, great and meager, ought to be treasured daily. Celebrating our differences as well as our commonalities is our bond. There’s zen to be found in a ballgame, and just about anywhere else, with observation and appreciation. And the way to cope with the stultifying or the unfortunate things that life throws at us is not to despair or retreat, but to double down on joy.

Thanks, Vin, for letting us listen in. If we truly heard you, we might just end our days with only two regrets: that we didn’t absorb your life’s wisdom sooner, and that we didn’t catch enough ballgames with you at the mic.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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