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By Steve Adams | June 23, 2016 at 11:19am CDT

Last summer, MLBTR launched its Instagram account (@TradeRumorsMLB). Over the past year we’ve provided sneak peeks at what traded players and free agents would look like in their new gear, provided live video and photos from the Winter Meetings and Spring Training, and found creative ways to ask pertinent hot stove questions.

This summer, we’re also running contests for autographed cards of trade candidates. We’ve already sent out cards to winners of our contests for Jonathan Lucroy and Julio Teheran autographs, and the current Jay Bruce giveaway (which runs through Friday afternoon) will award the winner with a signed 2014 Topps Five Star series card. We’ll be offering up more autographs and memorabilia over the course of the summer, in addition to jersey swaps, polls and discussion images and perhaps further updates on the Super Gurriel Bros.

If you have an IG account and haven’t checked out MLB Trade Rumors, follow us on Instagram today to participate in some more summer giveaways and keep track of all the activity on the trade market!

Top 15 Trade Candidates

By Jeff Todd | June 21, 2016 at 4:29pm CDT

MLBTR’s top trade candidate series is now a month old. Honestly, I’ve been surprised at how much movement the list has required. At this stage, of course, there’s still an awful lot of guesswork. It should continue to evolve with the market starting to take shape.

Remember, we’re not just ranking players by skill alone; we’re looking at overall asset value and trade likelihood. To assess trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field ability — with a premium on the capacity to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit. With regard to the likelihood of a swap, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t in a position at present where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.

Here’s this week’s list:

1. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds — He’s only increasing his offensive production as the season goes on, and Cincinnati looks to be well-positioned to finally strike a deal. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise if Bruce is traded relatively early in the process; even if not, it’s hard to imagine him wearing a Reds cap on August 2nd.

2. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers — Milwaukee is putting out vibes that an extension can’t be ruled out, and the demand side of the market suggests that an overwhelming offer might be harder to find than we had thought. Still, it’d be hard for the rebuilding club to pass on a chance to cash in such a valuable asset.

3. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers — Braun has taken a step back at the plate of late. While it’s nothing to be alarmed at, he may need to be at peak capacity to draw a top-notch return given his health issues and sizable contract. Plus, there continue to be some signs that the Brewers might not just take what they can get for their best assets. There certainly seems to be a better chance that he’ll stick around than there is for Lucroy.

4. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves — I’m moving Teheran up because he’s impressing and the starting pitching market is only looking tighter. Several top potential rental options are on the DL and/or are underperforming, while Sonny Gray — another quality, controllable arm that could conceivably be pried loose — still hasn’t re-established himself. It might take a perceived overpay, but Atlanta just may be positioned to get one.

5. Danny Valencia, 3B, Athletics — If teams are willing to buy in, you could argue that Valencia is the only impact infield bat available. His affordable contract and added year of control increase his appeal, but also reduce Oakland’s interest in finding a deal.

6. Fernando Rodney, RP, Padres — At some point, you can’t ignore the string of success. In the month of June, Rodney has allowed just four baserunners while fanning ten in 6 1/3 innings. That mirrors the rest of his season … and, of course, he has yet to allow an earned run. Rodney won’t be valued at the level of the very best relievers in the game, but he should draw strong interest.

7. Jon Jay, OF, Padres — Jay is a plug-and-go player who can handle a regular center field role or make for a versatile fourth outfielder. As a pure rental playing for a team that is in sell mode and has young players ready to step in for him, Jay seems like a likely piece to change hands.

8. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Rays — Odorizzi makes a big move into the top ten. It’s hardly necessary for Tampa Bay to trade him, of course, as he’ll only reach arb eligibility next year. But with the club falling back of late while dealing with numerous injuries, the appeal of cashing in a sturdy, controllable starter in a seller’s market is increasing. And if the team’s rehabbing starters remain on course, dealing from the rotation might not even be that painful. Especially if the Braves hold firm on Teheran, perhaps Tampa Bay could get a nice return for Odorizzi.

9. Sean Doolittle, RP, Athletics — Over his last nine innings, Doolittle has allowed just three hits (one of which was a solo home run) and two walks while posting 13 strikeouts. We’ve heard a lot of talk about some other top-tier power lefties, but there’s an argument that Doolittle is nearly as good while being much more available (and having an even more appealing contract). Injury questions remain a factor, but it’s easier to look past that when you need a gun now and this one is firing in the upper-nineties.

10. Arodys Vizcaino, RP, Braves — Vizcaino hasn’t always had premium strikeout numbers, but they are trending up this season. He has reeled off three straight solid outings since we last checked in, despite a few recent duds, so it’s not so much that he’s moving down the list as it is that the others are moving up.

11. Zack Cozart, SS, Reds — It’s not yet clear what kind of market Cozart will have, but he’s done nothing but increase his appeal all year. He’s still producing at the plate and would deliver a high-quality glove at short. Market demand remains a bit unclear, and Cinci may not be eager to move him, but clubs looking for a true shortstop probably won’t find a better option.

12. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies — I’m still betting that Colorado is in a selling position in the standings when the deadline comes around, though CarGo’s availability is another matter. The song remains the same: he’d draw huge interest if marketed, but Colorado’s approach remains to be seen.

13. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Phillies — He’s a pure rental piece playing at a reasonable salary ($7MM), and is putting up the kind of solid and steady numbers that teams value at the back of the rotation. Hellickson has a 4.41 ERA and is on pace for around 185 innings, which isn’t terribly exciting. But he’s healthy, is carrying sub-4.00 xFIP and SIERA marks, and is showing indications of positive evolution as a hurler. If he can tamp down the home runs, at least, Hellickson could be an important piece for an organization that needs some stability.

14. Yunel Escobar, IF, Angels — Escobar won’t excite, but he puts the ball in play and has managed to maintain a high average (and with it, a strong on-base percentage) over the last two years. His BABIP is inflated, but that’s also possible because he rarely hits the ball in the air and doesn’t make a lot of soft contact. Defensive metrics don’t really like him any better at third than they did at short, where he has spent most of his career, but he’s at least serviceable all over the infield. That adds real positional flexibility that could come in handy. It’s not yet clear whether the Halos will want to deal him, though, even if they keep on a downward trajectory. Escobar can be kept with a $7MM option that would hold appeal for Los Angeles.

15. Jeremy Jeffress, RP, Brewers — The back of the list still seems like the right range for Jeffress, who isn’t an elite strikeout threat. (Though, to be fair, the dive in K/9 this year is offset by the fact that he has maintained an ~11% swinging strike rate and generates tons of grounders.) Given that Milwaukee isn’t under any pressure to deal him, since he won’t qualify for arbitration until next season, it’ll take a strong offer and he could well stay put.

Keep reading for more names that were considered …

Injured:

Tyson Ross & Andrew Cashner (Padres), Rich Hill & Josh Reddick (Athletics), Jake McGee (Rockies), Joe Smith (Angels), Steve Pearce (Rays)

Falling Out:

Fernando Abad (Twins) — He has hit the skids a bit recently, capped by a two-walk, three-earned outing on Saturday.

David Hernandez (Phillies) — We don’t want to get too caught up in ebbs and flows here, but Hernandez has also been roughed up lately. In his last two appearances, he has coughed up seven hits and five earned runs.

Melvin Upton (Padres) — Upton has a .250/.278/.412 batting line for the month of June. That’s still within range of a useful, near-average slash, but he’s trending down a bit.

Just Missed:

Huston Street, Hector Santiago & Fernando Salas (Angels) — Among these players, Street is probably the most interesting possible trade chip. He has long succeeded without the kind of velocity or strikeout ability we tend to expect from a closer, but a recent injury and some shaky appearances leave him with something to prove. As with Escobar, the Halos may not have much interest in dealing him even if he’s performing and it looks like the season is a lost cause.

Sonny Gray, Jed Lowrie, Ryan Madson & Billy Butler (Athletics) — We’ll see how Gray’s market progresses, but it probably won’t gain much steam if he doesn’t return to form in the coming weeks. Superficially, Madson has been a quality closer, but the peripherals tell another story and he has big bucks left on his deal. Butler has been hitting recently, but that falls against the backdrop of a lengthy run of disappointment and hefty contract.

Ender Inciarte & Nick Markakis (Braves) — The loss of Mallex Smith reduces the already-questionable likelihood of a deal involving Inciarte. Meanwhile, Markakis is not producing at his typical, slightly-above-average rate with the bat, but it’s possible to imagine a deal if Atlanta is willing to eat salary.

Will Smith & Chris Carter (Brewers) — Smith is back and the ERA is shiny, but he has yet to regain his velocity. Carter is swinging a hot stick again. Either or both could crack the list in short order.

Welington Castillo, Daniel Hudson, Brad Ziegler & Tyler Clippard (Diamondbacks) — Arizona is going to be a difficult team to gauge until we start to hear more about the team’s intentions. While it looks like a seller, the organization is obviously interested in near-term contention and hasn’t exactly hued to expectations of late. Hudson had a couple of rough outings recently, but has rebounded with three straight clean frames. He’s owed just $2.7MM this year and free agency beckons thereafter, so the power righty could make for an easy fit with any number of clubs looking to deepen their bullpen.

Drew Pomeranz, Derek Norris & Matt Kemp (Padres) — It’s still not clear how other organizations will view Pomeranz, who owns an even 3.00 ERA over 14 starts and is striking out better than ten batters per nine on the year. There’s certainly an argument that he belongs in the top 15, though I’m holding him out for now since I’m still not convinced that San Diego will receive strong enough offers to make it worth moving a controllable arm. Norris is starting to play his way back into an interesting trade chip; teams that don’t want to break the bank for Lucroy could consider him. It’s still difficult to see enough interest in Kemp to warrant any club taking a big bite of his contract.

Jeanmar Gomez & Andrew Bailey (Phillies) — Gomez has had a few hiccups of late, while Bailey looks more like a filler piece than a significant addition give his ongoing struggles with the long ball.

Logan Morrison, Erasmo Ramirez & Xavier Cedeno (Rays) — Welcome to the list, Tampa Bay! The club is now six under .500 and 8.5 out of the division lead, so they are moving into plausible seller territory. Plus, this was an organization that could conceivably have dealt from its rotation regardless.

Ervin Santana, Trevor Plouffe & Eduardo Nunez (Twins) — This trio isn’t going to generate much excitement, but all could have their place for the right contender.

Examining The Yulieski Gurriel Market

By Mark Polishuk | June 21, 2016 at 12:06pm CDT

Yulieski Gurriel officially became a free agent last week, making the Cuban star into the biggest X-factor of the summer trade market. For teams hesitant to give up young talent in a trade for a current MLB hitter, signing Gurriel would be the intriguing alternative. Why lose both premium prospects and money (in the form of a pre-existing contract) when you could just spend to sign arguably Cuba’s best player?

Of course, trading for a known MLB quantity is also the safer route, as Gurriel has a few question marks. He just turned 32 years old, so (while his recent numbers in Japan and Cuba were as impressive as ever) Gurriel is at best nearing the end of his prime years and at worst would have his decline phase hastened by higher caliber of Major League pitching. Gurriel wouldn’t be an immediate upgrade either, as he’d need at least a few weeks in the minors due to not playing in actual game conditions since defecting in February.

Rightly or wrongly, Gurriel’s stature may also be affected by the fact that several other high-profile Cuban players recently signed to big contracts (i.e. Hector Olivera, Yasmany Tomas, Rusney Castillo) have stumbled at the Major League level, while the likes of Yasiel Puig and to some extent Jose Abreu have struggled after hot starts to their MLB careers. The fact that Gurriel is significantly older and more experienced than almost all of these players could work in his favor, or it could work against him — a younger player could be seen as still able to be molded, whereas if Gurriel is too “set in his ways,” it might quickly become apparent that he isn’t cut out for a long stint in the bigs.

On the flip side, Gurriel’s track record is so impressive that he could be well worth the risk. He has a career .335/.417/.580 slash line and 250 homers over 5491 plate appearances, mostly in Serie Nacional, Cuba’s top league. Baseball America’s Ben Badler named Gurriel as Cuba’s top player in April 2015, citing his well-rounded approach to the plate, plus raw power, above-average third base defense and ability to be “playable” at second base if a Major League team wanted to use him at the keystone. Badler used Hanley Ramirez and David Wright as “similar value” comps, which certainly sets a high ceiling for Gurriel’s potential in the majors.

Olivera signed a six-year, $62.5MM deal with the Dodgers just before his 30th birthday. Though Gurriel will be over two years older when he signs his MLB contract, MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently speculated that Gurriel could land a similar deal in terms of average annual value, if not length. Something in the range of a four-year, $40-44MM contract seems like a fair estimate as a floor for Gurriel’s deal, possibly with incentive clauses or a fifth-year vesting option included.

Given that Gurriel has said that he would accept not playing with his younger brother “if the circumstances don’t permit it,” Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s market may not be too significant a factor in Yulieski’s free agency. The younger Gurriel hasn’t been declared a free agent yet, and since he doesn’t turn 23 until October 19, he still falls under international bonus pool guidelines. Assuming he doesn’t become a free agent until after the new international market opens on July 2, Lourdes’ market will be short a third of the league (the Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Rays, Red Sox, Royals and Yankees), as all of those teams are limited to signings of $300K or less due to past overages of the spending pool limits. While it’s certainly possible that one of the other 20 teams could look to sign both Gurriels, by this point it’s more likely that Yulieski will want to begin his MLB career soon and Lourdes will wait until October to maximize his payday…unless a team maneuvers around the international signing rules, as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron hints.

Taking just the elder Gurriel on his own, however, let’s look at the teams who could be most likely to sign the 32-year-old to fill a need at the hot corner, second base or perhaps even left field.

FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal recently speculated that the Giants could use Gurriel in left next season if Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco leave in free agency. Perhaps more directly, Gurriel could help San Francisco at third either now or in the future, as Matt Duffy is still flashing an excellent glove but has been a sub-replacement level hitter this season.

Gurriel hasn’t played the outfield since 2005, however, so it’s probably unlikely that he would take on essentially a new position on top of all the other adjustments that he’ll face in coming to the major leagues. While the Giants are a team that could use Gurriel in left after a full offseason of preparation, we can probably write off clubs that could use a left field upgrade now but are otherwise set at third and second. By this reasoning, I’d argue the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Nationals, Red Sox and Rockies probably won’t be in on Gurriel.

Likewise, a few other contenders or non-contenders can probably also be written out due to a lack of positional need or due to the fact that they’re rebuilding: the Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Orioles, Pirates, Rangers, Rays, Tigers, Twins and Yankees.

(Bronx fans may balk at their team being included on that list given how little Chase Headley and Starlin Castro have produced, though I don’t find the Yankees to be a great match for Gurriel. Headley and Castro are respectively under contract through 2018 and 2019, and the Yankees front office is less open to eating money on contracts than in past years. As much as Gurriel may like to play for the Yankees and with former Cuban teammate Aroldis Chapman, NJ Advance Media’s Brendan Kuty notes that adding another pricey mid-30’s player doesn’t make sense for the aging Yankees roster.)

I didn’t include every rebuilding team on that list, as teams like the Braves and Reds aren’t planning on being bottom-dwellers for very long. (Atlanta, in particular, could look to contend as soon as next season when its new ballpark opens.) It would admittedly be surprising to see either Atlanta or Cincinnati sign Gurriel, though it wouldn’t be out of the question given how both clubs lack a long-term answer at third base.

It’s worth noting that the Braves and Reds are also two teams with the international pool space to make a play for Lourdes Gurriel before October, so they could aim to sign both brothers. The Braves are known to be planning a big splurge in the coming international signing period, while the Reds may already be approaching their 2016-17 pool limit due to their apparent agreement with Alfredo Rodriguez, so they could decide to make a bigger splash by pursuing Lourdes. The Phillies face a longer rebuilding period, though as Dave Cameron noted in his previously-linked piece, they could also aim to sign both Gurriel brothers and perhaps then even shop Yulieski in a year or two if he establishes himself as a quality MLB player.

The Marlins are probably set in the infield with Martin Prado at third and Derek Dietrich at second, with Dee Gordon due back from his 80-game suspension in August. Miami is usually connected to Cuban players in rumors based on geography alone, however, and there is a long-term scenario where signing Gurriel makes sense. The Fish could sign Gurriel and then trade Prado (a free agent this winter), though they are said to be loath to trade a piece from their Major League roster. Gordon’s ineligibility for postseason play looms larger with the Fish in the NL wild card hunt, so another infield upgrade isn’t out of the question.

The White Sox, A’s, Padres and Angels are all somewhat in the same boat as clubs who could perhaps be best served by a rebuild but still have an eye towards contending this year or reloading for 2017. All four teams, therefore, can’t be written out as contenders for Gurriel, especially since Todd Frazier is the only second or third baseman on any of the clubs who’s playing like a solid long-term piece (and even Frazier has slumped to near replacement-level after a hot start).

Chicago could look to move Frazier to DH given his suddenly poor defensive metrics, or the Sox could use Gurriel at second in place of the struggling Brett Lawrie. Oakland may have a sudden opening at third if Danny Valencia is traded, though while the A’s have made some big international signings in the past, they may not be able to afford Gurriel’s price tag. San Diego is another team known to be planning a big international spending spree, so the Padres could also factor into the Lourdes Gurriel package deal as well. The Angels’ woeful farm system leaves them unable to trade for big upgrades, so signing a player like Gurriel may be the best way to add a premium talent. Gurriel’s deal would likely put the Halos over the luxury tax limit for two seasons in a row, unless they can unload enough salary to get under the threshold either this year or next.

The Cubs and Astros have needs at third base now, though they’re both potentially so stocked with young talent that signing a 32-year-old may not make much sense. Chicago could sign Gurriel and then move Kris Bryant or Ben Zobrist to left, which would handle the Cubs’ need in that position. Once Kyle Schwarber returns healthy next year, however, that leaves the Cubs with a position glut. The Astros could use Gurriel now to solidify third, moving Marwin Gonzalez and Luis Valbuena into their very unsettled first base mix. For the future, Gurriel may not have a spot in Houston unless he plays DH or (like the Giants scenario) he moves to left to replace a departed free agent (in this case, Colby Rasmus). Top prospect Alex Bregman is ripping up Double-A pitching and has already seen some time at third base in preparation for a future position change since Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve have the middle infield locked down.

The Royals and Mets both have clear needs at third with Mike Moustakas and David Wright on the DL. Gurriel could step right in as Kansas City’s third baseman, and once Moustakas returns next year, Gurriel could shift to second (provided that Whit Merrifield ever comes back to Earth) or get time at DH should Kendrys Morales leave in free agency.

Gurriel could likewise play third base for New York in Wright’s absence and then be an option at second in 2017 if Neil Walker leaves in free agency. Perhaps the likelier scenario, however, is that Dilson Herrera plays second and Gurriel remains at third with Wright transitioning to first base (both to keep him healthy and for defensive reasons).

Both K.C. and New York could face issues meeting Gurriel’s price tag, however, a problem shared by the Indians — Cleveland has scouted both Gurriel brothers but probably can’t afford either. Jose Ramirez’s breakout year as a utilityman as put him in the conversation for the Tribe’s third base situation, though the club is still lacking a long-term answer. For this season, it’s more likely that the Indians will try to get by with Ramirez and Juan Uribe rather than sign Gurriel.

This leaves the Dodgers, which is perhaps fitting since they’ve expressed interest in Gurriel and have also easily been baseball’s biggest spenders in the Cuban market in recent years. L.A. has received relatively little production for all the millions spent on Cuban players, though given the franchise’s seemingly endless budget for international spending, the Dodgers seem perfectly willing to keep spending until they find paydirt.

Justin Turner and Chase Utley are second and third in fWAR among Dodgers position players, though they’re going in opposite directions; Turner has gotten hot after a slow start and Utley has had a rough June after playing well in April and May. Both are free agents after the season, so Los Angeles could use Gurriel at third or second in 2017 if one or both of Turner/Utley leaves. For this year, Gurriel could step in at second if Utley’s numbers begin to resemble his subpar 2015 stats, or the Dodgers are one of the few teams that could afford to have Gurriel as a glorified reserve player for the rest of the season.

Since Gurriel’s market has technically just opened up, it’s tough to forecast when exactly he could sign. Some teams could wait until Lourdes Gurriel’s free agency is granted, in order to negotiate with both brothers as a package deal. Others may prefer to explore some less expensive infield upgrades (e.g. Danny Valencia) before making on an eight-figure outlay on a player with no Major League experience. As various second and third basemen either come off the trade board or see their asking prices rise to unreasonable heights, however, Gurriel will become more attractive as a potentially simple way to add infield pop.

2017 Vesting Options Update

By Steve Adams | June 20, 2016 at 5:25pm CDT

It’s been a little more than a month since we last checked in on the vesting options from around the league. Here’s where this year’s collection of players with vesting options for the following season stand…

Coco Crisp ($13MM option vests at 550 plate appearances or 130 games played in 2016): Crisp was hitting .234/.304/.405 at the time of my initial look at this group of players, but his bat has gone in the tank since that time. The 36-year-old switch-hitter has batted just .212/.235/.343 in 102 plate appearances since that time, but he’s continued to see playing time in part due to injuries elsewhere on the roster (Josh Reddick, Mark Canha). Crisp is still on pace to come in a bit shy of that 550 PA mark, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a reduced role upon Reddick’s return to health, as the A’s probably don’t love the idea of paying him $13MM for his age-37 campaign when he’s struggling to this level in 2016.
Matt Holliday ($17MM option vests with Top 10 finish in MVP voting): Holliday is having a strong season, as he’s proven that the power outage he experienced last season was more anomaly than a portent for significant decline. However, he’s hitting .257/.332/.478 — numbers that help the Cardinals but won’t make him a factor in MVP voting barring a mammoth finish to the 2016 season.
Chris Iannetta ($6MM option vests with 100 games started in 2016): Iannetta has already started 55 games for the Mariners this season, making it seem very likely that he’ll be around in Seattle for the 2017 campaign as well. He hasn’t set the world on fire in his first year with the Mariners, but he’s hitting .237/.337/.395, which translates to an OPS+ of 104 and a wRC+ of 105. (Put another way: he’s been about four to five percent above the league-average hitter after adjusting for his pitcher-friendly home park.)
Yusmeiro Petit ($3MM option vests with 80 innings pitched in 2016): At last check, Petit was on pace to see his option vest, but he’s been used very sparingly in the month of June, totaling just six innings thus far after combining for 26 innings in April and May. Given his status as a multi-inning reliever, he could pick up some additional innings in a hurry, but as it stands, he’s behind pace to see that payday locked in automatically. Of course, he’s also posted a 2.81 ERA in those 32 innings, so the Nats may simply pick up his option even if it doesn’t automatically trigger. To this point, he’s pitched well enough that it seems like a fairly easy call.
CC Sabathia ($25MM option vests if he does not end season on DL with shoulder injury or miss 45+ games in 2016 due to shoulder injury): Sabathia’s option seems likely to vest, as his shoulder has remained healthy this season. However, what once looked like an egregious overpay can perhaps be seen in a different light for the time being. While few would argue that the Yankees shouldn’t mind paying Sabathia that sum in 2017, his contract looks considerably better than it did last year. The former Cy Young winner has made 11 starts this season and has posted a resurgent 2.20 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9. Sabathia has benefited from some good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball ratio and strand rate, but this is the best he’s looked since 2012.
Kurt Suzuki ($6MM option vests with 485 plate appearances in 2016): Suzuki’s overall production this season has been well below average, but since the last of these updates he’s batting a considerably improved .268/.297/.394 with a pair of homers in 74 PAs. That’s a bit better than the league-average catcher, but the Twins still don’t seem inclined to allow his option to vest. Suzuki has totaled just 158 plate appearances this season even with John Ryan Murphy, his projected replacement, floundering in the Majors and getting optioned to Triple-A (where his struggles have continued). Journeyman Juan Centeno is getting some time behind the dish as well (61 PAs) for the Twins as well. It seems unlikely that Minnesota will allow Suzuki to average 3.5 PAs per game over the final 93 contests after he’s averaged just 2.3 per game thus far.

As noted in the original update, both Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn had vesting options for the 2017 season as well, but those options were negated when each was released from the four-year contracts they initially signed with the Indians.

Knocking Down The Door: Asuaje, Hoffman, Mejia, Norris, Reed

By Jason Martinez | June 20, 2016 at 1:50pm CDT

The latest installment of “Knocking Down the Door” includes three players who were part of high-profile trades within the last 11 months, a pitcher trying to become the next in a long line of great homegrown Giants to reach the majors, and MiLB.com’s 2015 Offensive Player of the Year.

Carlos Asuaje, 2B, San Diego Padres (Triple-A El Paso): Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra were the key pieces in the offseason trade that sent Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox. Some experts, however, considered Asuaje as an underrated prospect who could make an impact in the Majors in 2016.

With second baseman Cory Spangenberg not expected back anytime soon—he’s been on the disabled list since April with a strained quad and his recovery has been slow—the Padres’ best opportunity to find out if the 24-year-old Asuaje is capable of becoming a big league regular could be now.

The left-handed batter, who has played primarily at second base this season, has 15 hits in his last 41 at-bats to boost his batting average to .329. His 26-to-33 walk-to-strikeout ratio should also be intriguing for a Padres offense that is third in the Majors in strikeouts and 26th in walks.

Padres Depth Chart

Jeff Hoffman, SP, Colorado Rockies (Triple-A Albuquerque): This may not be the year that the Colorado Rockies will contend for a playoff spot. But they’re a team on the rise with Jon Gray starting to pitch like a top-of-the-rotation starter, third baseman Nolan Arenado looking like a perennial MVP candidate and rookie shortstop Trevor Story on pace for 40 homers.

The farm system also has several young pitching prospects who are moving up the ladder quickly. None is closer, or probably as good, as Hoffman, a former first-round draft pick who was the centerpiece of last season’s Troy Tulowitzki trade with the Blue Jays.

In yesterday’s start, the 23-year-old right-hander showed why he is so highly regarded, allowing two earned runs over seven innings while striking out 11 without issuing a walk. It was the sixth time he’s completed seven innings this season, which is quite a feat in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Rockies Depth Chart

Adalberto Mejia, SP, San Francisco Giants (Triple-A Sacramento): In a span of five seasons from 2005-09, the Giants’ farm system produced three frontline starting pitchers—Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner—who went on to help the team win three World Championships.

None have arrived since. Adalberto Mejia was making a case, reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2014. But a less-than-stellar season (4.67 ERA) followed by a 50-game PED suspension knocked the left-hander off the prospect radar.

Since returning last June, however, Mejia has been better than ever with only 86 hits and 34 walks allowed while striking out 96 batters in 116 1/3 Double-A innings. He was rewarded with a promotion to Triple-A last week and responded by pitching four-hit ball over seven shutout innings in his debut.

With Cain on the disabled list for a second time this season after re-aggravating a hamstring injury and journeyman Albert Suarez currently filling in, Mejia is putting himself in a position to be next in line.

Giants Depth Chart

Daniel Norris, SP, Detroit Tigers (Triple-A Toledo): With an opening in the big league rotation after Matt Boyd was sent to the minors yesterday, Norris’ path to the Majors just became a lot clearer. But his seven shutout innings on Friday likely played just as big a factor as Boyd’s back-to-back poor outings.

While it was expected that the 23-year-old lefty would be in the Majors from the onset of the 2016 season, Norris was placed on the disabled list due to a back injury. Upon activation in late April, he was sent to Triple-A where he struggled over his first two starts. Since, he’s found his groove with a 2.77 ERA over his last seven starts (42.1 IP, 40 H, 14 BB, 44 K.) His next should come in the Majors sometime this week.

Tigers Depth Chart

A.J. Reed, 1B, Houston Astros (Triple-A Fresno): A second-round draft pick in 2014, Reed has passed every test with flying colors up until now, putting up big numbers at five different levels over a two-year period. His recent hot streak with Triple-A Fresno (11-for-32, HR, 5 2B) now has him on the doorstep to the big leagues.

At the moment, the only player seemingly standing between the 23-year-old Reed and a starting job with the Astros is Marwin Gonzalez, a valuable super-utility man who is out of place as the team’s starting first baseman. Despite a 16-8 run to put them two games under .500, the Astros still have a ways to go to get back into the playoff race. Inserting the left-handed-hitting Reed into the middle of the order could help.

Astros Depth Chart

“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | June 19, 2016 at 8:03am CDT

A recap of the original analysis MLBTR offered over the past week:

Trade Rumors announced the acquisition of Roster Resources on Monday and is pleased to have added RR’s founder, Jason Martinez, to the staff. In his first piece with MLBTR, Jason debuted his “Knocking Down the Door” series – which focuses on Double-A and Triple-A prospects who are making cases to receive major league promotions.
In the third installment of his weekly top trade candidate series, Jeff Todd analyzed 15 players who could be on the move in the coming weeks.
With the White Sox having taken several steps back since a red-hot start, Jeff looked into whether it would make sense for the team to continue acquiring outside pieces. The White Sox have made several notable roster moves recently, as Jeff highlighted, with the trade for struggling right-hander James Shields being the biggest.
Lastly, Jeff checked in on the performances of a slew of players whose teams will have offseason decisions to make on their club options. Some household names include Jay Bruce, Wade Davis, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Holliday and Jonathan Lucroy.

Taking Stock Of 2017 Club Options

By Jeff Todd | June 18, 2016 at 1:10am CDT

We’re far enough into the 2016 season that it’s possible to begin to see where things might be headed in terms of 2017 club options. Team need is always a component of the decision, of course, and that can be tough to gauge at this stage. But if a player is valuable enough to warrant the exercise of the option, it’s generally possible to strike a trade.

Here’s a list of the players whose deals will force their teams to make a decision after the year:

(Note: we’re not considering mutual options or player options/opt-outs here, but will discuss players with vesting/club options. For a recent, closer look at whether their vesting provisions are likely to be triggered, click here.)

Matt Albers, RP, White Sox — $3MM club option with a $250K buyout: Albers isn’t exciting, but he’s throwing well enough that the option could end up being exercised. Really, it’s too soon to tell in his case and will be highly dependent on how the Chicago pen is shaping up heading into the winter.
Jay Bruce, OF, Reds — $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout: I’ve been casting aspersions at Bruce’s glove for some time now, but he’s hitting enough that it may not matter. It seems he’s headed towards having this payday picked up.
Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox — $13.5MM club option with a $500K buyout: Though the price isn’t too high for a pitcher who has been a quality rotation piece, Buchholz’s durability and reliability questions, combined with his abysmal start, probably put it above his value. But there’s still time and opportunity for a turnaround with Buchholz now returning to the Boston rotation.
Coco Crisp, OF, Athletics — $13MM vesting/club option with a $750K buyout: Crisp has been healthy and has shown flashes at times, but there’s little chance of Oakland putting this on its tab heading into his age-37 season (whether by allowing it to vest or by picking it up).
Wade Davis, RP, Royals — $10MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout: Barring a Greg Holland-like catastrophic injury situation, this one’s an automatic yes.
Alcides Escobar, SS, Royals – $6.5MM club option with a $500K buyout: The 29-year-old is mired in his second consecutive season of terrible offensive production, and defensive metrics have soured on his fielding. There’s still time for a turnaround, and K.C. will think long and hard before cutting ties (especially without an obvious replacement lined up), but you have to wonder at this point if that’s possible with Escobar hitting an anemic .243/.267/.289. At such a reasonable price, though, it’s still fairly unlikely that he hits the open market.
Yunel Escobar, INF, Angels — $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout: Escobar keeps hitting and has some defensive flexibility. He may not be exciting, but he’s worth this kind of payday.
Jaime Garcia, SP, Cardinals — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout: He may be inconsistent, and he certainly comes with injury questions, but the peripherals still suggest that Garcia is a quality big league pitcher. Barring another run of significant arm issues, this probably gets picked up.
Gio Gonzalez, SP, Nationals — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout: Speaking of inconsistent lefties … Gonzalez continues to underperform his peripherals, but he’s almost certain to stay on the Nats’ books.
Jason Grilli, RP, Blue Jays — $3MM club option with a $250K buyout: Much like Albers, this is going to revolve around Toronto’s situation as well as the way Grilli throws the ball late in the year. He’s shown some new life since coming over, it’s worth noting.
Jason Hammel, SP, Cubs — $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout: Hammel would need to fall apart pretty badly in the second half to disrupt his return.
Ryan Hanigan, C, Red Sox — $3.75MM club option with an $800K buyout: He’s 35, he’s hurt, and he’s barely hitting. But there’s still time for Hanigan to revive his value, and Boston could see fit to keep him around as a veteran backup. Of course, there are plenty of scenarios where there’s no interest from the team’s perspective.
Derek Holland, SP, Rangers — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout: He still isn’t quite 30 years of age, but Holland is struggling to return to form after dealing with some pretty significant injuries. Over the last two years, he’s allowed over five earned per nine across 127 innings. The price tag is starting to look a little steep.
Matt Holliday, OF, Cardinals — $17MM club/vesting option with $1MM buyout: Another interesting one! Holliday has yet to finish a season with a sub-.800 OPS, and he’s on pace to top that again. The power is back, too, though his top-notch OBP numbers are down a bit. That’s a big price for a guy entering his age-37 season, but it’s reasonable on a one-year deal for a player with that track record.
Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies — $23MM club option with a $10MM buyout: Despite Howard’s many contributions to the Phils, this one is going to be declined.
Chris Iannetta, C, Mariners — $4.25MM club/vesting option: Even if Mike Zunino proves ready for another shot at the majors, he’ll need a partner and the team will want a back-up plan. Iannetta is putting up a productive .247/.348/.412 batting line, and if he can stay in that vicinity this’ll look like a very appealing price tag that the club will be glad to put on its books (in all likelihood, by allowing it to vest).
Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers — $5.25MM club option with a $25K buyout: Probably the surest “yes” on this list.
Cameron Maybin, OF, Tigers — $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout: It would be rash to put too much stock into his excellent first 110 plate appearances with Detroit, but since the start of last year Maybin has shown life in his legs, a league-average bat, and a capable glove in center. That’s probably worth the $8MM gap between the yay and the nay, especially for a team without a real alternative.
Matt Moore, SP, Rays — $7MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout: Things haven’t gone smoothly since Moore returned from Tommy John surgery, but his strikeout rate and velocity are rising and there’s still no reason not to pay him the $4.5MM over the buyout price.
Pat Neshek, RP, Astros — $6.5MM club option with a $500K buyout: Neshek has been solid enough for Houston, but this feels a bit steep given that he’s nearing 36 years of age. His current 2.66 ERA has benefited from a .149 BABIP and 96.5% strand rate.
Jon Niese, SP, Pirates — $10MM club option with a $500K buyout: Niese is still getting grounders and is running typical K:BB rates, but he has been torched by the long ball. This isn’t a huge price for a 30-year-old starter, though, so I’m still guessing it ends up being exercised.
Yusmeiro Petit, RP, Nationals — $3MM club/vesting option with a $500K buyout: Petit has been quite solid for the Nats and seems a reasonable bet to make a match again next year, but he’s another reliever who could really go either way. He’s already logged 31 innings, which puts the 80-inning vesting mark in play; Washington might be just fine with letting that happen.
Fernando Rodney, RP, Padres — floating $2MM+ club option with a $400K buyout: Rodney has been aces, but it’s worth remembering that his option could cost as much as $7MM depending upon what incentives he triggers this season (with $5MM more in incentives available for 2017). Still, if he can keep putting up the results of a quality late-inning reliever, he’ll probably be worth it.
Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Tigers — $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout: K-Rod hasn’t quite had the results this year, and his velocity and swinging-strike rates are trending down, but ERA estimators still view him as a solidly above-average pen arm and it’s only a $4MM decision. It seems pretty likely he’ll be worth that, and that Detroit will have a need.
Carlos Ruiz, C, Phillies — $4.5MM club option with a $500K buyout: Ruiz started fast but has fallen off since; he’s almost certain to join Howard in receiving a fond farewell from Philly.
CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees — $25MM vesting option with a $5MM buyout: Here’s another clear example of an aging, former star who … wait, what’s that? Since the calendar flipped to May, Sabathia has thrown 44 innings over which he’s allowed just four earned runs. Odds are this won’t quite last, as Sabathia’s velocity is still down along with his swinging strike rate, and it’s pretty unlikely that New York will want to pay this rate for a guy who’ll be entering his age-36 season. But unless he comes down with a shoulder issue, there may not be any choice involved. If nothing else, the vesting outcome isn’t looking so bad for the Yanks at this point; we’ve seen quality veterans land one-year deals for just over the qualifying offer level before, and this may not end up looking too different.
Carlos Santana, 1B, Indians — $12MM club option with a $1.2MM buyout: Santana remains a high-quality hitter and this looks like a perfectly reasonable price for him.
Seth Smith, OF, Mariners — $7MM club option with a $250K buyout: Smith has rather quietly been rather productive in Seattle. He’s getting a bit long in the tooth, and isn’t an everyday player, but this is the market rate for top platoon outfielders and it’s only a one-year commitment.
Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Marlins – $2MM club option: Ichiro has been asked to take a more-or-less everyday role in Miami at 42 years of age, and he has responded with a .410 on-base percentage. (That was another way of saying that the price is looking right.)
Kurt Suzuki, C, Twins — $6MM vesting option: He’s been pretty marginal with the bat over the past two seasons, and that price tag is higher than most solid second catchers got on the market last winter. Looks like a pass if it doesn’t vest; that seems unlikely with only 149 plate appearances on his ledger thus far.
Jordan Walden, RP, Cardinals — $5.25MM club option with a $250K buyout: This once looked like a pretty likely pick-up for a quality pen arm, but Walden has disappeared with injuries.

Top 15 Trade Candidates

By Jeff Todd | June 15, 2016 at 11:51pm CDT

MLBTR’s top trade candidate series hits its third week as we reach the middle of June, and we’re beginning to expand the list as the market gains shape. The James Shields trade hasn’t worked out yet for the White Sox, but Chicago still profiles as an early buyer. Might other teams join them in seeking reinforcements sooner than later?

As for this list, we’re not just ranking players by skill alone; we’re looking at overall asset value and trade likelihood. To assess trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field value — with a premium on an ability to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit. With regard to the likelihood of a swap, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t in a position at present where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.

Injuries again had an impact; here’s this week’s list:

1. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers — Still good, still available … at a steep cost. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at the potential suitors for a player who might be not only the best, but also the most interesting trade chip on this summer’s market.

2. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers — With Rich Hill hitting the DL and falling off of this list for the time being, Braun moves into the second slot. Some may quibble with this placement, citing the big contract — not to mention the fact that GM David Stearns says “there is no motivation for us to move … an elite-level player.” But reports suggest there’s been at least some chatter involving Braun, who could be the highest-performing hitter available.

3. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds — The division-rival Brewers are giving signs that they’ll wait to see how the market develops with their best chips, but one wonders whether Cincinnati could act more quickly with Bruce’s value on the ascent. Defensive limitations remain a concern, but teams in need of a boost on offense will take a hard look at the 29-year-old.

4. Danny Valencia, 3B, Athletics — This placement feels high, and maybe it is. But Valencia has carried a 1.000+ OPS in both May and June. And he brings a serviceable (albeit below-average) glove at both third base and the corner outfield. With just $3.15MM owed to Valencia in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility, he’s a pretty nice piece who could fit on a lot of contending clubs.

5. Arodys Vizcaino, RP, Braves — Vizcaino has shown some cracks in his most recent work. In 3 1/3 innings over four appearances since June 7th, he has surrendered three earned runs on four hits and five walks while recording four strikeouts. That’s not enough to set off any alarm bells, but it’s worth watching how he bounces back.

6. Fernando Abad, RP, Twins — Abad just keeps humming along, and could see some save opportunities as Minnesota struggles to find reliable late-inning relief work. He’s as cheap as they come ($1.25MM) after signing a minor league deal, and can be controlled for another season via arbitration.

7. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves — With Teheran now laying down an impressive run of results, the focus is less on his ability than it is on the market. Atlanta won’t just settle for the best offer for the righty, who is cheap and controllable for years to come, but will set a high price and see if it’s met. As the rest of this list shows, there isn’t much in the way of quality starting pitching available; a club with a present need and future interest could conceivably be enticed to meet the ask.

8. Fernando Rodney, RP, Padres — Though he hasn’t pitched much of late, it’s no longer possible to ignore Rodney’s brilliance thus far. The walks (4.0 BB/9) are still a concern, but Rodney is inducing grounders at a career-best 61.2% rate and is generating swinging strikes at a solid 11.6% rate. The fastball still averages better than 95 mph. Plus, he’s owed just $1.6MM this year — though incentives will drive that up — and can be kept for 2017 at a floating rate that could be quite reasonable if things continue in this direction.

9. Sean Doolittle, RP, Athletics — After some struggles early, Doolittle has regained his fastball velocity, with the results catching up as batters can’t. He is controllable through 2020 on a fairly meager guarantee, so he’s no certainty to be dealt, but the A’s could choose to cash in on the 29-year-old, who now owns a 2.45 ERA with 11.9 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 on the year. Those are the kinds of numbers that could motivate a contender to part with some serious value, though health remains a long-term concern.

10. Zack Cozart, SS, Reds — After three straight seasons of defensive excellence and subpar hitting, Cozart has run up a .271/.312/.475 batting line with 18 home runs in 437 plate appearances over the last two seasons. He’s earning less than $3MM in 2016 and will be eligible for a final trip through arbitration next year, so Cinci doesn’t need to make a move. But with Jose Peraza returning to the majors, it’s possible to imagine the Reds looking to get something out of the player who might end up being the most appealing shortstop available at the deadline.

11. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies — The Rox have gone on a nice little run in the last week, reducing their trade likelihood for the time being. Gonzalez would look like a clearer trade piece for most organizations, but it’s still all but impossible to gauge Colorado’s willingness to move the big-swinging 30-year-old.

12. David Hernandez, RP, Phillies — Signed to a $3.9MM deal after dealing with injuries in recent years, Hernandez has made good on the Phillies’ hopes. Over 30 1/3 frames, he owns a 2.37 ERA with 11.9 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. His 14.2% swinging strike rate is in line with his career-best 2012 season. You could argue for Jeanmar Gomez, Hector Neris, or Andrew Bailey to represent a surprising Phils’ pen on this list, and all are also plausible candidates in their own right, but Hernandez has the best mix of performance and likelihood of being dealt. (Gomez and especially Neris come with future control, while Bailey hasn’t been as good as the others.)

13. Jon Jay, OF, Padres — Seems like every time we talk about a team with an outfield need, Jay is one of the first names mentioned. He’s something like this trade season’s Gerardo Parra. Jay is a quality left-handed hitter who has never carried much of a platoon split, is capable of providing solid defense up the middle or in the corners, and is owed a reasonably $6.85MM this year before hitting the open market.

14. Melvin Upton, OF, Padres — Though he’s scuffled a bit in the month of June, Upton still looks like a useful fourth outfielder who can play any position on the grass. His wheels and defense are an asset for a contending team, and San Diego has good reason both to open a roster spot for younger options and to offload some of its remaining obligations to Upton.

15. Jeremy Jeffress, RP, Brewers — Jeffress is in the mist of a third straight season of sub-3.00 ERA work, so perhaps he was too slow to make this list and rates too low on it. But while he’s still generating a good swinging strike rate (11.6%) that’s in line with his work last year, Jeffress isn’t even striking out seven batters per nine and has never been elite in that department. He does have an impressive and consistent groundball percentage that sits just under 60%, but that arguably makes him more of a very good setup man than a shut-down closer. If the market views him as the former rather than the latter, Milwaukee may not be sufficiently motivated to deal him with three years of control remaining.

Keep reading for more names that were considered …

Injured:

Tyson Ross & Andrew Cashner (Padres), Rich Hill & Josh Reddick (Athletics), Jake McGee (Rockies), Joe Smith (Angels) … true, a 15-day placement isn’t the same as a long-term injury, but we’ll operate under the premise that if you’re on the DL, you probably won’t be dealt

Just Missed:

Sonny Gray, Jed Lowrie, Ryan Madson & Billy Butler (Athletics) — Gray’s value isn’t at its peak given his injuries, and it’s tough to imagine Oakland selling low. Lowrie can be controlled cheaply for two seasons beyond this one, so there isn’t exactly a rush to deal him. It’s tough to imagine a team taking on the remainder of Butler’s deal, but the A’s would probably love to shed the contract.

Ender Inciarte & Nick Markakis (Braves) — Like Butler, Markakis is hardly teeming with value given his .239/.328/.321 batting line and two years remaining on his deal beyond this season. Inciarte has been hurt and ineffective for much of the season but is hitting much better lately.

Will Smith & Chris Carter (Brewers) — Smith’s semi-improbable return to health following a spring LCL injury could have teams inquiring if he proves healthy and effective, while Carter’s power and cheap price tag once again make him a potentially appealing summer asset. Milwaukee can control Smith through 2019 and Carter through 2018.

Jeremy Hellickson, Gomez & Bailey (Phillies) — Hellickson arguably deserves a place on the list now, but he was bombed in his last outing and still has something to prove.

Welington Castillo, Daniel Hudson, Brad Ziegler & Tyler Clippard (Diamondbacks) — It’s just not clear whether Arizona will have any interest in dealing Castillo. Among the relievers, Hudson may be most likely to be dealt. He’s benefiting from a .172 BABIP right now, but he’s got a mid-nineties heater, double-digit swinging strike rate, and cheap rental rate ($2.7MM salary).

Derek Norris & Matt Kemp (Padres) — Neither Padres slugger is performing all that well. Kemp’s bat has come to life somewhat in the past three weeks or so, but he’s still walked just five times all season and is sporting a .259 OBP. With his contract, that’s a tough sell. Norris’ bat has picked up recently, too, and considering his position and much more affordable salary, it’s easier to see him building up some meaningful trade value than Kemp.

Ervin Santana, Trevor Plouffe & Eduardo Nunez (Twins) — Neither Santana nor Plouffe are playing terribly well, and neither is terribly cheap, but they are the type of sturdy veterans that often change hands at the deadline. As for Nunez, teams won’t completely buy into the hot hitting, but he had a solid batting line last year as well and delivers loads of positional flexibility. That he’s controlled through 2017 is an added plus.

Yunel Escobar, Huston Street, Hector Santiago & Fernando Salas (Angels) — Yes, I’m now considering the Angels among the plausible sellers. But that doesn’t mean they are placing anyone on the list. Escobar and Street are valuable enough to rate, but I still don’t expect the Halos to actually cut bait on what increasingly seems to be a hopeless season until the very last minute. Even then, I remain unconvinced they’ll actually sell Street, Escobar or Santiago, as all three could play important roles in 2017. Salas, though, certainly seems a candidate to find a new home if the Halos’ woes continue.

Should The White Sox Keep Adding?

By Jeff Todd | June 15, 2016 at 1:00am CDT

This post addresses a fairly straightforward subject: next moves for the White Sox. Yet I’ve re-written it about three times since I started, since the club keeps changing its roster.

Just look at some of the notable moves from the last ten days:

Acquire SP James Shields
Designate 1B/OF Jerry Sands
Designate SP Mat Latos
Sign 1B Justin Morneau
Promote SS Tim Anderson
Designate SS Jimmy Rollins
OF Austin Jackson to DL for at least 6 weeks
RPs Daniel Webb, Jake Petricka out for season

Okay, yes, I broke up some of those combined transactions for effect. But for mid-June, that’s a lot of action! Latos and Rollins were both important buy-low, fill-in pieces that Chicago hoped would bolster a top-heavy roster. Those experiments ended early, with pricier (Shields) and glitzier (Anderson) replacements brought in. Sands was also sent out, and the club suffered three notable injuries. Oh, and Chicago finally added that Adam LaRoche replacement … except that it’s largely unknown when Morneau will suit up.

Despite all the movement, it’s not clear that the organization is really much better situated than it was ten days back. There’s a nice step up from Latos to Shields — despite the latter’s immense struggles through two outings — and some worthwhile rolls of the dice, but the injury hit likely saps any gains and there’s risk aplenty.

That creates a bit of a dilemma for GM Rick Hahn and his staff. None of the recent changes have been too terribly dramatic, but they are a bit committing. Chicago will reportedly owe Shields $27MM, which ain’t nothing, and gave up Erik Johnson to get him — taking away the team’s most plausible “next starter up.” And going with Anderson leaves Chicago exposed to the variance of young talent; if he isn’t quite ready, Rollins won’t be around to step back in.

Having started the acquisition process in early June, with the club hovering around .500, there’s still time to reverse out at the deadline if things really go south. But the first round of moves still begs for a counterpart — another addition or two that ramp this up from a minor makeover to a reasonably substantial renovation of the parts of the roster that are most in need. The division is still there for the taking, with a Wild Card berth an achievable consolation prize in a tightly-bunched American League.

Moving on the market at this stage means picking from among a few highly-motivated selling organizations. In all likelihood, not all of the players mentioned in my recent post ranking the ten top trade candidates are available yet. That results in a fairly limited field and likely would require the White Sox to be aggressive in its offers.

So, what areas could Chicago target?

Outfield

True, the addition of Morneau supplies the left-handed first base/DH option that LaRoche once was. But he’s not providing plate appearances right now and there’s no time to lose. Plus, with Jackson down for at least six weeks, and not performing terribly well anyway, there’s still a need in the outfield.

Without Jackson around, the South Siders are reduced to shifting Adam Eaton back to center and utilizing defensively-deficient regulars Melky Cabrera and Avisail Garcia at the corners. It’s certainly not an optimal mix, at least from a fielding perspective, and there isn’t much promise among the organization’s internal options.

Adding a center-field capable player, who could either share time with Jackson down the line or operate as a frequent fourth outfielder, would seem optimal. It’s not often that there’s a readily-available fit this time of year, but Jon Jay of the Padres may be just what’s needed. He is solid with the glove and with the bat, would create some additional platoon options with Jackson (though the latter doesn’t generally carry significant platoon splits), and he’s a reasonably-priced rental. Jay would add real value now — while Jackson and Morneau remain unavailable — and be useful once they return.

Some might tab Jay Bruce of the Reds here: he’s eminently available and is slugging again. But he’d have made more sense before the addition of Morneau, since he’s best suited as a DH given his abysmal fielding metrics. Adding Bruce now would boost the offense some, but wouldn’t do much for run prevention.

It’s also arguable that the team should wait in this area. Players like Josh Reddick and Carlos Gonzalez could be made available later, but probably aren’t realistic options in the near term. And if the team is willing to look at right-handed hitters, Ryan Braun could be in consideration. But these players will come with a higher acquisition cost, aren’t options in center, and likely won’t solve the immediate need.

A middle-ground approach could involve making a run at Carl Crawford. He isn’t an option in center at this stage of his career, but he’s been a solid-enough hitter and fielder who adds value with his legs. Plus, he can be employed for the league minimum. Crawford would provide a near-term solution — at least, a reasoanble upgrade over the likes of Sands and J.B. Shuck — while leaving the club free to assess and act accordingly over the next six weeks.

Bullpen

Chicago reportedly has interest in a pen lefty, and odds are a marginal upgrade wouldn’t be considered. The White Sox have three relief southpaws at present; all are useful, but none represent true set-up options. Zach Duke has basically been a LOOGY this year, dominating same-handed hitters while struggling mightily against righties. Dan Jennings has lost velocity and his whiff rate is down, to go with an already-troubling propensity for the free pass, even if the results are good so far. And Matt Purke, a reclamation project, has been surprisingly solid, but it’s hard to count on him for much.

In short, there’s no need for a solid southpaw, because Chicago has those. But an impact arm that would could slot into a set-up role in front of closer David Robertson would be intriguing. At present, it’s not entirely clear who that might be, however. Will Smith of the Brewers and Sean Doolittle of the Athletics would qualify, but their extended control would make for steep asking prices. Perhaps there’s an argument to be made that Fernando Abad is good enough to push for an early strike, but it’s hard to see that kind of addition moving the needle too forcefully.

The unfortunate realization that Petricka and Webb aren’t coming back this year also opens some additional need and opportunity in the pen. Petricka, in particular, has given the ChiSox a lot of solid frames in recent years, and the club could respond by bolstering its right-handed unit. Nate Jones, Matt Albers, and Zach Putnam are useful set-up options, so there isn’t a pressing need here, but this is probably the easiest area for a team to add depth throughout the year.

Catcher

This may be a low likelihood area to make a change, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that Dioner Navarro and Alex Avila have combined to underwhelm both with the bat and behind the plate. Both are playing on one-year contracts, too, and there’s long-term uncertainty at the position.

The backstop ranks are fairly thin all around baseball, and the Sox don’t need another solid second catcher type. They have that on hand already. If the team is going to look at this position, it’d be looking for a significant upgrade.

Jonathan Lucroy remains the top dog on our list of the biggest trade chips, and he’d be a great target. Lucroy has been at the top of his game in all regards, remains cheap this year and next, and could also see action at first or DH. Trouble is, other organizations surely see him the same way, and the Brewers are said to be asking for a lot.

There are some other possibilities, but it’s not clear that they represent enough of a bump over Navarro and Avila to warrant the outlay that would be required. Derek Norris of the Padres and Welington Castillo of the Diamondbacks are, however, at least worth considering — though it’s unknown whether and when the latter will be made available.

Starter

Yes, the team just added Shields. But with their new righty struggling, Carlos Rodon still looking more like a wild card than a playoff starter, and Miguel Gonzalez more serviceable than sensational, there’s still a conceivable need here.

Plus, there may be a little bit of a two-for-one possibility at play. It may or may not be something the team would ever consider, but adding a rotation piece could allow it to put Rodon into the back of the pen, where he could be a force. He’d still offer rotation depth, provide a long-relief option, and might well dominate — all while clearing the way for a starter who is perhaps better able to contribute every fifth day right now.

Regardless of whether that concept holds water, and despite already checking this box, picking up a real rotation upgrade still holds appeal. That could take many forms: a sturdy rental (Jeremy Hellickson?), a play for the top short-term arm available (Rich Hill, arguably, at least once he returns), another Shields-like gambit (Ervin Santana, perhaps?), or a higher-performing, controllable piece (Julio Teheran?).

Of course, acquiring a more impactful starter would raise the possibility of parting with a significant return. And that would likely implicate Carson Fulmer, last year’s top draft pick. A decent portion of his draft stock was tied up in the belief that he’d make it to the majors quickly, but he has encountered some bumps in the road at Double-A. Rather than hoping for a sudden ascension, perhaps it’s time to cash Fulmer in.

Reverse Course?

All those areas to improve arguably point to quite a different conclusion, though. The White Sox aren’t playing all that well and aren’t projected to do much more. They have lots of needs. And without significant prospect capital to work with, they’re faced with the options of clearing out the farm and/or taking on some major future salary commitments.

It’s certainly arguable that this just isn’t the time to go for it. A densely-packed division provides opportunity, but also means there are a lot of teams to outperform. Chicago could position itself as the top seller, depending upon who it’d be willing to spin off, were it to make a beeline back to port after charting a course for contention in rough seas. It’s also possible that the team could hold that out as a back-up plan even if it does seek additional early strikes via trade.

The one path that seems least desirable, perhaps, is a half-hearted buying effort that harms the future without really boosting the team’s chances at present. Hahn has said that he believes strongly in the core of this roster, so perhaps it’s time to act boldly to surround it with a few more strong pieces. Without a mix of new blood (some solid fill-ins and/or a significant addition or two), the Sox may be in need of some breaks to remain in the hunt in the AL Central.

Knocking Down The Door: Bregman, Healy, De Leon, Renfroe, Lively

By Jason Martinez | June 13, 2016 at 8:40pm CDT

This is the debut of my weekly “Knocking Down the Door” series here at MLBTR. The purpose is to identify players in Triple-A or Double-A who are doing everything in their power to earn a big league call-up in the very near future.

For the most part, I’ll try to include players who could make a significant impact soon after arriving to the majors, if not right away. So unless it’s a really slow week for potential impact prospects, I will not be telling you about the pending arrival of the next great middle reliever, spot starter or fourth outfielder.

Here are five players to keep an eye on …

Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros (Double-A Corpus Christi): The Houston Astros might be the most disappointing team in baseball. And while the next Carlos Correa probably isn’t waiting in the wings—check back in another decade or so—it’s possible that Alex Bregman can give them a much-needed spark before their season goes completely down the drain.

Correa did make a quick stop in Triple-A before he was called up to the majors last season, but the fading Astros might not be able to wait much longer on the 22-year-old Bregman if they think he can help them out.

The 2nd overall pick in the 2015 draft, Bregman has been a man among boys in Double-A with a 1.007 OPS to go along with 13 homers and more walks (27) than strikeouts (20), which is a good sign that he can handle himself against big league pitching. He’s only played seven games at third base, although a move from shortstop shouldn’t be a difficult transition.

Houston Astros Depth Chart

Ryon Healy, 1B, Oakland Athletics (Triple-A Nashville): The A’s have plenty of incentive to continue giving at-bats to Yonder Alonso, who was acquired in the offseason for All-Star candidate Drew Pomeranz, and Billy Butler, who is in year two of a three-year, $30MM deal.

But at some point very soon, they’ll need to move on from at least one of the two—Alonso does have 13 hits in his last eight games to boost his OPS to .642; Butler is coming off of a three-hit game that increased his OPS to .683—and reward first base prospect Ryon Healy for the damage he’s done to Double-A and Triple-A pitching this season.

The 24-year-old Healy has nine hits, including three homers, in his last 22-at-bats to give him an overall slash line of .343/.404/.615 in 60 games between the two levels.

Oakland Athletics Depth Chart

Jose De Leon, SP/RP, Los Angeles Dodgers (Triple-A Oklahoma City): After a breakout season in 2015, Jose De Leon has fallen a bit off the radar due to multiple injuries that have limited him to only three Triple-A starts this season.

While this makes it unlikely that he’ll be able to make an impact in the Dodgers’ rotation anytime soon—he’s made a pair of three-inning starts since returning from the disabled list earlier this month—the 23-year-old right-hander is an intriguing option for a bullpen that does not have a reliable power arm to bridge the gap to closer Kenley Jansen.

In 11 innings, De Leon has allowed three earned runs on four hits with three walks while striking out 21 batters. Sounds like a power arm to me.

Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart

Hunter Renfroe, RF/LF, San Diego Padres (Triple-A El Paso): Top outfield prospect Hunter Renfroe is doing his part to earn a big league promotion with a robust .598 slugging percentage after recently belting his 13th and 14th homers of the season. Now he just needs general manager A.J. Preller to do his part and create a spot for him.

Preller has his work cut out for him as he works the phones and tries to find takers for outfielders Matt Kemp and Melvin Upton Jr. and at least some of the remaining salary due on their contracts. Trading free agent-to-be Jon Jay, who is having a nice bounce back season, shouldn’t be difficult. It should only take one trade, though, for the 24-year-old Renfroe to get the call, where the big league coaching staff will hopefully introduce him to something called “plate discipline.”

Renfroe’s Kemp-esque 7-to-45 walk-to-strikeout ratio is a concern. However, in what should be a rebuilding season, it would be great if a key part of the team’s future can get regular at-bats against big league pitching.

San Diego Padres Depth Chart

Ben Lively, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (Triple-A Lehigh Valley): It’s Zach Eflin who is getting the call tomorrow to replace the injured Vince Velasquez, but it could’ve easily been Ben Lively or Jake Thompson. All three are pitching well. In fact, it was pretty much a coin toss between Lively and Thompson for this highly-coveted spot on the “Knocking Down the Door” list. With the 24-year-old Lively being nearly two years Thompson’s elder, I’m giving him the nod.

Acquired from the Reds for Marlon Byrd two offseasons ago, Lively has really stepped up his game after not making much of an impression in his debut season with the Phillies. After posting a 4.13 ERA in 25 Double-A starts in 2015, the 6’4″ right-hander has put himself on the prospect map with a 1.94 ERA, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 13 starts between Triple-A and Double-A. He’s also 10-0, which is probably meaningless, but impressive, nonetheless. Maybe he’s one of those guys who “just knows how to win.”

Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart

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