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MLBTR Originals

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s a look back at the original analysis MLBTR offered over the past seven days:

  • This is traditionally the time of year for teams to promote top young players, so Jeff Todd looked at 20 notable prospects who could join their major league clubs and impact this summer’s trade deadline.
  • Jeff also presented the second edition of his top 10 trade candidates list in advance of the upcoming deadline. James Shields, who was part of the first version, was dealt last weekend and subsequently removed from the rankings.
  • Steve Adams put forth arguments on why the Braves should and shouldn’t trade right-hander Julio Teheran. The entire MLBTR writing staff then weighed in on the matter in a roundtable format, and Steve asked our readers to lend their opinions in a poll and via the comments section.
  • Mark Polishuk offered an in-depth examination of which teams could pursue Brewers star catcher Jonathan Lucroy in a trade. Given his performance, contract and ability to also play first base, plenty of clubs should have interest in Lucroy if Milwaukee shops him in earnest.
  • With the season over two months old, I analyzed seven contract-year players who are surprisingly making cases to receive qualifying offers during the upcoming offseason.

Looking For A Match In A Jonathan Lucroy Trade

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2015 was essentially a lost season for Jonathan Lucroy.  The Brewers catcher was limited to 103 games thanks to a concussion and a fractured toe, and he posted his worst numbers in four seasons by hitting only .264/.326/.391 with seven homers over 415 plate appearances.  Down year notwithstanding, it’s still quite possible that had Lucroy could be wearing a different uniform today had he stayed healthy — the former All-Star garnered some trade buzz last winter as rivals teams looked to buy low.  Brewers GM David Stearns didn’t pull the trigger on a deal, which looks like a shrewd decision given how Lucroy has thoroughly rebuilt his value.

Lucroy has been nothing less than baseball’s best all-around catcher in 2016.  In addition to hitting .304/.361/.515 with nine home runs through 227 PA, Lucroy is also posting above-average pitch-framing numbers and has thrown out 24 of 32 runners trying to steal.  Since fWAR doesn’t include framing value, there’s an argument that Lucroy has been even more valuable than his already-impressive 2.1 fWAR, which leads all qualified catchers by a healthy margin and ranks him within the top 30 of all players.

If that output wasn’t enough, Lucroy is also on one of the game’s most team-friendly contracts.  He has roughly $2.7MM still owed to him in salary for this season, and he is controllable through 2017 on a $5.25MM club option (with a $250K buyout, though the option is a no-brainer to be exercised).  Between the superstar production and the small salary commitment, it’s no surprise that Jeff Todd placed Lucroy atop both installments of the MLBTR Top 10 Trade Candidates rankings.

Jonathan Lucroy

One wrinkle to Lucroy’s trade candidacy is his partial no-trade clause, which allows him to block deals to eight teams each season.  Lucroy quite openly discussed his desire to play for a winning team during an interview in January, so it doesn’t seem like he’d stand in the way of a move to a contender, though he could obviously ask for some financial incentive to waive his clause if Milwaukee worked out a deal with one of those eight teams.  The Nationals are the only team known to be on Lucroy’s list and while D.C. has shown interest in Lucroy in the past, they have no need for a catcher upgrade thanks to Wilson Ramos’ huge season.

So if not Washington, who else could be Lucroy’s new team?  We can probably eliminate these teams since they’re either rebuilding, out of the race or are already set at catcher: Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Twins.

As I mentioned earlier, Lucroy (who turns 30 on Monday next week) won’t come at a big payroll cost, but the Brewers will surely ask for multiple blue-chip prospects and/or MLB-ready young players in return.  This type of price tag definitely narrows the field, as some teams simply may not have the young talent to meet Milwaukee’s demands.  Teams like the Angels, Mariners, Tigers and White Sox could all use a catcher upgrade but are hamstrung by thin farm systems.

The Mets’ farm system is more highly-regarded than the aforementioned teams, though they might well have to offer one of the young starters in their current rotation to get Milwaukee’s attention in a Lucroy trade.  (Given the questionable health of Travis d’Arnaud and Lucas Duda, Lucroy would give the Mets a much-needed bat at catcher or first.)  The Phillies can probably also be counted out, as while it’s fun to imagine them pausing their rebuild plans to capitalize on their surprising proximity to the wild card race, it’s probably unlikely that Philadelphia will trade some of the young talent it has amassed over the last year-plus.

The Indians have Yan Gomes locked up on a contract extension that could run through the 2021 season, though Gomes has been hampered by both injuries and inconsistency over the last two years, making him a weak link on a Cleveland team challenging for the AL Central.  If you really look outside the box, you could conceive of a scenario where Cleveland offers two of their “untouchable” prospects in Clint Frazier, Bradley Zimmer or Bobby Bradley for Lucroy, then either trades Gomes in the offseason or uses Lucroy at first in 2017.  (Gomes could also go to the Brewers in a Lucroy trade.)  I would think it’s much more likely, however, that the Tribe focuses on outfield help at the deadline.

The Yankees don’t stand out as an obvious Lucroy landing spot given Brian McCann’s presence, though if Mark Teixeira’s knee injury ends up requiring season-ending surgery, Lucroy and McCann could split time between catcher and first base.  (This timeshare could continue into 2017 if Teixeira leaves in free agency, or the Yankees could look to deal Lucroy or McCann in the offseason.)  Lucroy’s bat would be a huge boost to a Yankees team that is hanging around the race despite a severe lack of offense.  On the flip side, New York’s farm system is also not very deep, and GM Brian Cashman has thus far resisted trade offers for young pieces like Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Jorge Mateo or Gary Sanchez.

The Cubs have the prospect depth to get involved in any trade market, though they don’t have a pressing need at catcher.  Chicago ranks ninth among all teams in cumulative catcher bWAR for the season, as Miguel Montero and David Ross have both been very good defensively if below-average at the plate.  Montero’s hitting may well pick up as he fully recovers from some back issues, though given how well the Cubs’ catching tandem is fielding the position and handing their spectacular rotation, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer could easily stand pat at catcher. Plus, top prospect Willson Contreras is raking at Triple-A.

The Astros and Rays are in similar positions as teams with a clear need at catcher and some good young talent to offer, yet their biggest issue at the moment is just getting to .500.  Even if a pennant run this season is questionable, either club could acquire Lucroy with an eye towards contending again in 2017.  Houston asked about Lucroy last winter, and though Jason Castro’s minor revival at the plate has somewhat lessened the Astros’ need at catcher, Lucroy is obviously still a big upgrade.  The Astros could also use Lucroy at first base in case top prospect A.J. Reed isn’t quite ready for the bigs.  Tampa Bay may not be so eager to deal from its vaunted pitching depth given how Chris Archer, Matt Moore and Drew Smyly have all had their ups and downs this year, though Lucroy would definitively solve the Rays’ longstanding catcher problem.

The Rangers have been linked to Lucroy in trade rumors for months, yet recent reports suggest Texas may instead focus on pitching upgrades at the deadline.  Robinson Chirinos has just been activated from the DL, plus the Bryan Holaday/Bobby Wilson combo has performed very well in Chirinos’ almost season-long absence.  If Texas was interested in Lucroy over mostly this same catching corps last winter, however, they’re probably still interested in him now.  The Rangers have as much young talent at both the major and minor league levels as anyone, and they’re one of the few clubs that could put together a package of four or even five young players without cleaning out their system.

The Red Sox could deal from their own minor league surplus to address their catching situation, as Christian Vazquez has been an excellent defender but a sub-replacement level hitter thus far in his MLB career.  Boston’s catching depth has been thinned by Ryan Hanigan and Blake Swihart both hitting the DL, and Swihart had already been moved to left field due to defensive concerns.  The Sox are another team that could acquire Lucroy and shift him to first next season if they want to give Vazquez another chance to catch, as Hanley Ramirez will get most of the DH duties once David Ortiz retires.  It’s also possible Vazquez himself could be sent to Milwaukee as part of the Lucroy trade package, though clearly not as the headliner — the Brewers would demand at least one (or even two) of Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers or Anderson Espinoza.

Catcher is not a deep position around the game, and Lucroy’s market could still develop quite a bit more before the trade deadline if a contender suffers an injury to its starting backstop.  Lucroy’s ability to play first base also allows for some positional creativity for teams looking to jump into his market (as I noted earlier in a few examples).  It’s possible the Brewers themselves could look to capitalize Lucroy’s high trade value by packaging him in a deal with Ryan Braun, who’s also hitting well but who is a tougher sell due to his pricey contract, injury history and PED baggage.  There aren’t many teams who would be willing or able to absorb all of Braun’s deal, though pairing him with Lucroy would be a creative way for Stearns to clear Milwaukee’s biggest future payroll commitment.

All things considered, Lucroy is probably the most fascinating trade candidate to watch leading up to the deadline.  It’s not often that a catcher is the centerpiece of the summer trade season, yet Lucroy is the perfect storm of a star catcher with a very reasonable contract who’s playing for a rebuilding club.

Photo courtesy of Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports Images

MLBTR Roundtable: Trading Julio Teheran

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Earlier today, I laid out a high-level overview of the cases both for and against the Braves trading Julio Teheran. While there are certainly some gray areas in making a decision — every player, no matter how good, becomes tradeable once the value received in exchange reaches a certain point — we’ve asked the entire staff at MLBTR to offer its thoughts on whether the Braves should be open to making a move or should hang onto their best starting pitcher.

You can read the above-linked post for more info on the 25-year-old righty. Or, skip right ahead to the opinions of the MLBTR team:

Tim Dierkes: As the saying goes, “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.”  Teheran has been in the Braves’ organization for nearly a decade, and they know him better than anyone.  It was that familiarity that led them to sign him to a deal guaranteeing $32.4MM back in 2014, a fairly aggressive extension for a pitcher with less than two years of Major League service time.  Research from Matt Swartz has shown that it is hard to avoid lemons when signing away free agent pitchers from other teams.  The Braves may have good money to spend this winter in advance of their new stadium opening, but in addition to the issue of the “Other People’s Players” premium Swartz discovered, the free agent market for starting pitching looks historically bad.  Even with Teheran, the Braves will need to add significant starting pitching if they hope to contend in 2017. Verdict: Retain him.

Steve Adams: There’s virtually no scenario in which trading Teheran makes the Braves better in 2016, and they’d be hard-pressed to find a deal that makes them definitively better in 2017 — the year in which they supposedly aim to contend in a new stadium. The Braves have stocked their farm with pitching depth, but Teheran is their best pitcher in the Majors right now, and his $32.4MM contract has enough surplus value that the asking price could (and should) reasonably rival the Shelby Miller haul. A return of that magnitude strikes me as extremely unlikely, and given the backlash they’ve had from fans in John Coppolella’s first season as general manager, moving the team’s clear top starter for more young pieces wouldn’t sit well with their audience. Verdict: Retain him.

Jeff Todd: As things stand, Teheran has had great results in three of his four full seasons in the majors. He’s young, he racks up innings, and he has an appealing contract. On the other hand, he doesn’t have elite swinging strike rates, isn’t much of a groundball pitcher, and has always outperformed ERA estimators — yes, even in 2015 — which have recently viewed him as a ~4.00 (and change) performer. In large part, then, his value is dependent upon whether one believes that’s sustainable. He’s still a nice piece regardless, and at worst he provides Atlanta with a sturdy mid-rotation piece as it exposes its top prospects to the majors, but I’m actually in favor of looking to sell while the gettin’ is good. Teheran’s value is up, especially with a mediocre set of fellow trade targets and a seemingly barren free agent starter crop coming this winter, and frankly I’m not bullish on Atlanta’s 2017 outlook. Too many things need to go right, and the lackluster overall free agent class may not be conducive to building out a competitive roster for a reasonable price. PR considerations aside, a deal that includes at least a high-quality, advanced position-player prospect makes sense to me, even if a truly premium youngster can’t be had. Verdict: Shop him.

Mark Polishuk: The Braves’ long-stated plan was to return to contention when their new ballpark opens in April 2017.  While that timeline may have been pushed back a bit thanks to their terrible record this season, the organization obviously still wants to be competitive sooner rather than later.  Even if they wait until 2018 to make a push, that’s still well within the life of Teheran’s contract and the prime of his career.  If I’m the Braves, I hang onto Teheran now (barring a Godfather offer from another team, of course) since I’d find myself looking for a Teheran-type of pitcher within a year or two anyway. Verdict: Retain him.

Charlie Wilmoth: Not to straddle the fence, but I think the Braves should strongly consider trading Teheran but keep him if they don’t get a return they like. A rebuilding team should consider trading any veteran starter in the midst of a good year. You never know when a pitcher might lose velocity, get hurt, or decline for other reasons, so keeping Teheran to pitch for a bad team is risky asset management. Teheran and Shelby Miller are different types of pitchers, but Miller’s case demonstrates that principle. Even leaving aside the terrific return the Braves wouldn’t have received if they hadn’t dealt Miller, how bad would it have been for Atlanta if the Braves had kept him and then he had a 2016 season like the one he’s having now with the Diamondbacks? On the other hand, Teheran is only 25 and is under control and cheap through 2020, so he could easily be part of the next good Braves team. Add in that the Braves would surely like to play well next season for the opening of their new ballpark, and there are compelling reasons to keep Teheran around. I’d try to deal him, but if the offers are underwhelming, holding on is reasonable too. Verdict: Hung jury!

Connor Byrne: The crop of starters who are expected to be available prior to the trade deadline looks mostly unappealing, as does the upcoming class of free agents, so the rebuilding Braves should at least shop Teheran. The next several months could serve as the perfect time frame for the Braves to get more for Teheran than he’s worth. If they put Teheran on the block and don’t get a palatable enough offer, then keeping him wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. With his team-friendly contract, Teheran won’t have to perform like much more than a back-end starter to provide value over the next few years, meaning the Braves won’t be in a negative position if they retain him. However, by no means should John Coppolella be so intent on acquiring a young, established major league hitter in return for Teheran that he summarily spurns other offers. Teheran’s only a year removed from a 4.00 ERA season with a below-average 2.34 K/BB ratio. We’re not talking about a Jose Fernandez-esque superstar here; rather, Teheran’s contract and durability are arguably the two best things he has going for him. The Braves shouldn’t need to be “overwhelmed” to trade him, then, even though Coppolella said otherwise last month. Verdict: Shop him.

That’s where we stand, but we’ll also open this one up to our readers with a poll (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users):

Should The Braves Trade Julio Teheran?
Yes, sell him (or at least shop him) while his value is at its peak. 66.29% (3,501 votes)
No, retain him to help contend in the near future. 33.71% (1,780 votes)
Total Votes: 5,281

7 Surprise Players Making Cases To Land Qualifying Offers

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Since Major League Baseball instituted the qualifying offer system in 2012, the cost to extend one to a free agent has gradually risen from $13.3MM on a single-year contract to $15.8MM. That number figures to increase again this year, which is all the more reason for teams to be vigilant when distributing them. Last year was the first time a player accepted the offer – three did, actually – which prevented their teams from watching them depart in free agency in favor of a first-round compensatory pick.

Looking ahead to the upcoming offseason, potential free agents like Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Bautista and Kenley Jansen, among others, are slam dunks to receive qualifying offers if they reach November without being traded and without new contracts (Cespedes would have to opt out of his current deal, which he seems likely to do). That premier group of shoo-ins could be joined by a slew of players who have been surprise standouts so far this year. Those players are…

Mark Trumbo, 1B/RF/DH, Orioles: Six months ago, the Mariners dealt Trumbo to Baltimore for backup catcher Steve Clevenger in what amounted to a salary dump. Trumbo established himself as a notable home run threat during the first five years of his major league career, hitting 131 balls over the fence from 2011-15, but that’s about all he did well. In addition to proving himself a defensive liability, Trumbo struck out too much, walked too little and got on base at a paltry .301 clip. The Mariners, already Trumbo’s third team, decided it made more sense to get rid of his salary (which ended up at $9.15MM after a January arbitration hearing) than deal with his shortcomings.

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The Baltimore version of Trumbo brings the same flaws to the table as he did in previous stops, but now he’s doing his best to offset his imperfections by producing like an elite hitter. The 30-year-old has already totaled a major league-leading 20 homers, and he ranks fourth in ISO (.316, 99 points higher than his career mark) and is tied for fifth in wRC+ (155) through 251 plate appearances.

Trumbo – who has slashed .296/.347/.609 – has helped himself by chasing fewer bad pitches than ever, having swung at a career-best 32.7 percent of offerings outside the strike zone, and has elevated the ball and hit it both hard and far when he has swung. Trumbo’s 43.1 fly ball percentage and 37.5 ground-ball rate are both personal bests, and Statcast (link via Baseball Savant) indicates that the ball is coming off Trumbo’s bat at a mean of 95.3 miles per hour – good for fourth in the league – and traveling an average of 250 feet. At that distance, he’s tied with teammate Chris Davis, among others, for seventh in the league. Further, as pointed out earlier this week by FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan, Trumbo’s stellar production at the plate goes all the way back to last July – nearly a calendar year. All things considered, the Orioles have a prodigious slugger who’s on a collision course with a qualifying offer.

Rich Hill, SP, Athletics: Hill went on the disabled list Thursday with a strained right groin, which is a troubling development for someone who has a long injury history and hasn’t exceeded 100 innings in a major league season since 2007. Nevertheless, the 36-year-old was among the top starters in baseball over the season’s initial two months. Eleven starts and 64 innings into 2016, the curveball specialist owns the league’s ninth-best ERA (2.25) and 10th-best K/9 (10.41), and Hill has amassed those numbers while inducing plenty of grounders (48.1 percent rate) and generating soft contact (87 mph exit velocity). Both Hill’s early season brilliance and the A’s struggles make him an ideal candidate to move prior to the Aug. 1 trade deadline. If the A’s do sell Hill, he won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in the offseason from his new team. In the event Oakland keeps Hill and he doesn’t turn into a pumpkin before the end of the season, he’ll be a strong bet to land a qualifying offer. Given Hill’s journeyman status, including a stint in the independent Atlantic League last summer, his story is already rather improbable. If he goes from Long Island Duck in July 2014 to major league qualifying offer recipient in November 2016, it would add yet another unexpected chapter to the book.

Michael Saunders, LF, Blue Jays: When it comes to Toronto’s pending free agents, almost all of the attention has understandably gone to Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Saunders’ start to the year has also made him worth paying attention to, though, as he has rebounded from an injury-ravaged 2015 to upstage his more accomplished teammates. Through his first 222 trips to the plate, Saunders leads all Jays regulars – including reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson – in average (.294), OBP (.374) and slugging percentage (.528), and he’s third on the team in both ISO (.234) and fWAR (1.5). On a leaguewide scale, Saunders’ 145 wRC+ places him in a tie with former NL MVP Ryan Braun and slightly ahead of other world-class talents like Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Cabrera and Bryce Harper. It’s possible Saunders’ success is largely driven by a .376 BABIP and he’ll eventually revert to being merely the decent cog he was during his most productive seasons with the Mariners from 2012-14. For now, he’s following in the footsteps of Bautista and Encarnacion as the Jays’ latest out-of-nowhere offensive star. That puts Saunders on pace to once again mimic those two in receiving a qualifying offer.

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The Cases For And Against A Julio Teheran Trade

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We’re firing up another new series here at MLBTR in which we’ll take one oft-discussed topic each week and present the high-level cases both for and against the move in question. Following that, we’ll present a roundtable of opinions from the MLBTR staff in a separate post and ask our reader base to weigh in on the matter with a poll.

With the Braves in full rebuild mode and their stated willingness to listen to offers for anyone not named Freddie Freeman,  it’s only natural that Julio Teheran’s name has come up frequently early in the summer. Last week, MLBTR’s Connor Byrne examined the difficulties in identifying a trade partner that had both the need to add Teheran and the ability to part with the MLB-ready types of young talent which Atlanta is said to covet in a theoretical deal.

Teheran is off to an incredible start to his 2016 season, having pitched to a 2.85 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 42.5 percent ground-ball rate in 82 innings out of the Atlanta rotation. He also looks to be well on his way to a third straight season of 200+ innings in just his age-25 season. He’s benefited from some good fortune in terms of BABIP (.228) and strand rate (83 percent), but Teheran has posted a BABIP lower than the league average throughout his career and also posted strand rates that are above the league norm, so while some regression can be expected, it probably shouldn’t be assumed that those numbers will trend all the way back to the league averages.

We’re a good seven and a half weeks away from this year’s non-waiver trade deadline, and Teheran is pitching brilliantly for a last-place club in the midst of a rebuild, expect to hear his name floated with some degree of regularity between now and Aug. 1. However, does the very fact that he’s an appealing asset on a rebuilding club mean that Teheran should be traded? Let’s look at both sides of the coin.

The case for trading Julio Teheran

The case for the Braves to trade any player on their big league roster always starts at the same place: they’re a team that wasn’t good in 2015 and has been significantly worse in 2016. Atlanta is currently on a course for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft, and they’ll be among the few teams that are definitive sellers leading up to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trading deadline. The Braves will probably field calls on any and all pieces that could help a contending club, and Teheran, as noted above, more than fits that bill.

Julio Teheran

Given his strong start to the season, his highly affordable contract and the utter dearth of impact arms not only on the summer trade market but also on the upcoming free-agent market, there’s a chance that the Braves could coerce a team into parting with a potentially exorbitant package of young talent to pry Teheran from their hands. Atlanta reached that nexus of frenzied demand and willingness to surrender elite talent in the offseason’s Shelby Miller blockbuster, and there’s a case to be made that Teheran could, or at least should, be worth more. The D-backs, after all, were acquiring three years of Miller at arbitration prices, whereas a team dealing for Teheran would be taking on the remainder of this season’s salary ($2.06MM as of this writing) and three more years at $26.3MM. That’s three and a half years of Teheran for roughly $28.14MM plus a club option for $12MM in 2020 — his age-29 season. Last summer, the Rangers surrendered a package of Jerad Eickhoff, Jake Thompson, Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams and Alec Asher in the Cole Hamels/Jake Diekman trade. Teheran’s entire contract is worth barely more than a season of Hamels, financially speaking.

Moving Teheran this summer could net the Braves an MLB-ready asset (as Eickhoff gave the Phillies or as Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair gave the Braves in the Miller deal) as well as multiple high-ceiling, top 100 range prospects. The 2016 product is bad, and moving Teheran right now could net them two or more pieces that would help in 2017, when more of their vaunted farm system is at the Major League level.

The case against trading Julio Teheran

On the flip side, the Braves are aiming to contend in 2017, and Teheran helps them tremendously in that vein. Matt Wisler’s solid start to the season aside, Teheran is the Braves’ best pitcher. He misses more bats, generates more grounders and has displayed better control over the course of his career than Wisler has in his. Trading Teheran almost certainly makes the Braves a worse team in 2016, and there’s a very real chance that doing so would make them worse in 2017 as well. Acquiring MLB-ready assets is always a plus, but prospects aren’t guaranteed, no matter how highly regarded they may be. Teheran is performing well in the Majors right now and has done so since 2013, posting a cumulative 3.30 ERA in 689 1/3 innings.

The contract, as mentioned above, gives the Braves the best years of a pitcher that may not be a definitive ace but can clearly pitch near the top of a Major League rotation at an exceptionally affordable rate. Teheran is in his fourth season of big league service and would’ve been arbitration-eligible for the second time this coming winter. He’s earning salaries of $3.3MM, $6.3MM and $8MM for his arbitration seasons and can be controlled for just $23MM total for his first two would-be free-agent seasons. His arb years are cheaper than the likes of Wade Miley and Lance Lynn, and Teheran’s free-agent seasons are priced somewhere in the range of 50 to 75 percent of what they’d command on the open market (as is the case with most pre-arbitration extensions). There’s an enormous amount of value to the Braves themselves in that deal.

Beyond the on-field and financial reasons for keeping Teheran, the Braves have been aggressively working to fight the notion that they’re “tanking” in order to continue to build up the farm through the draft. General manager John Coppolella has repeatedly stressed that his hope for the 2016 season was an improvement over 2015’s record and strides toward a competitive product in 2017 — the opening season of the Braves’ new stadium, Sun Trust Park. Trading away their best pitcher for even more young, controllable pieces would only further fuel the tanking narrative, even if the return brought the potential for multiple contributors to the 2016-17 roster. The Braves would also face continued backlash from a fanbase that has been particularly vocal about its thoughts on the current rebuild, and while fan reaction shouldn’t be the deciding factor in a move, it’s certainly something of which the Braves’ brass must be mindful as it approaches the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Top 10 Trade Candidates

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This represents the second iteration of MLBTR’s top 10 trade candidate series. We’ve already seen a name fly off the shelf, as last week’s fifth-ranked trade candidate — James Shields — was flipped from the Padres to the White Sox.

Remember, we’re not just ranking players by skill alone; we’re looking at overall asset value and trade likelihood. To assess trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field value — with a premium on an ability to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit. With regard to the likelihood of a swap, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t in a position at present where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.

Without further ado, here’s this week’s list:

1. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers — Lucroy holds the top spot again, and barring a surprise move up the charts, he could stay there until he’s traded. It probably makes sense for Milwaukee to let the market shake out a bit before a deal, though, as several clubs with plausible catching needs may wish to wait and see how injury and performance issues progress over the coming weeks. Plus, with a high-value asset, an unexpected injury can always have a huge impact.

2. Rich Hill, SP, Athletics — Hill is currently out with a groin strain, but hasn’t yet been put on the DL, and the hope is that he can take the ball on Friday. At this point, a minor non-arm injury isn’t enough to ding Hill’s interesting trade candidacy. But the 36-year-old has already recorded more major league innings this year (64) than he has in any season since 2007, and durability will be watched closely by suitors looking to gauge his value.

3. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers — Speaking of injuries, that’s probably the biggest variable on the market for the veteran Milwaukee slugger. He’s missed nine of the club’s last 21 games, and the list of maladies seems only to grow. But Braun has been as good as ever when he has been on the field, so he continues to occupy a top spot.

4. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds — After two straight years with below-average offensive production, Bruce is mashing. Yet he finds himself rated at or just above replacement level by measure of WAR. The culprit? A precipitous dive in his defensive metrics. He’s tied for a league-worst -11 defensive runs saved and is the lowest-rated qualifying defender in baseball by measure of UZR. The struggles with the glove limit his value and his market, but he’s still a prime target for teams in search of offense.

5. Arodys Vizcaino, RP, Braves — The Viz Kid has been among the game’s top 15 relievers by most any measure, and he’s posted significant jumps in ground-ball rate (56.9%) and swinging-strike rate (17.2%) to support his improvement over an already-strong 2015 season. Vizcaino has three more years of arb control remaining and should remain quite affordable, even though his save accumulation will begin to boost his salaries. That makes him a future asset for Atlanta, but the bet here is that he’s the likeliest of the team’s controllable assets to be dealt this summer.

6. Danny Valencia, 3B, Athletics — Valencia continues to rake, and the A’s continue to scuffle, so he makes a big move into the top ten. Needless to say, the one-time journeyman doesn’t seem terribly likely to maintain his current .343/.387/.580 batting line — he’s carrying a .374 BABIP, for one thing — but it’s hard to ignore that the 31-year-old has hit at a .291/.336/.492 clip over nearly 1,000 plate appearances dating back to 2013. Though Valencia doesn’t grade out very well at third or on the bases, his overall value is boosted by the fact that he’s appeared in the corner outfield and even second base at the game’s highest level. Jed Lowrie is another second/third candidate to watch from Oakland.

7. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves — Every quality start Teheran turns in raises his appeal — along with Atlanta’s already-steep asking price. Teams will forgive his 1-6 record, of course, and they’ll be drawn to his 200-inning history and 2.92 ERA. On the other hand, the 25-year-old continues to outperform ERA estimators and isn’t elite in the strikeout or ground-ball departments. While Teheran may be available for the right offer, it remains tricky to see a deal coming together.

8. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies — I’ve said before that I’m not convinced the Rockies will sell, let alone that they’ll move the second of their two former franchise faces. But with the team still producing middling results and new stars rising, perhaps the time for a CarGo swap is finally upon us. Since reeling off a five-game winning streak in mid-May, Colorado has gone 6-13 and currently sits eight games back of the Giants in the NL West. Gonzalez, meanwhile, is producing at a typically solid clip and would be one of the game’s bigger deadline chips. He’s still just 30 years of age, and while his injury history is troubling, he seems reasonably priced at $17MM this year and $20MM next.

9. Fernando Abad, RP, Twins — He’s still the best high-performing, obviously-available lefty out there, and he’d appeal to a wide variety of teams since he’s playing for a relative pittance. But Abad’s time on the top-ten list may not be long; even if he doesn’t follow Shields as an early trade piece, there are some other arms that may soon challenge. The Brewers’ Will Smith could warrant for a spot if he continues to pitch well upon his return, though he’s no certain trade piece since he’s only a Super Two. Keep an eye on Jake McGee of the Rockies; his velocity and swinging strike rates are off, and he’s not especially cheap, but his track record is intriguing. Oh, and I hear that the Yankees have a couple of guys — if they decide to sell. And that’s all before accounting for the right-handed relief contingent.

10. Melvin Upton, OF, Padres — The much-maligned elder Upton isn’t exactly living up to his old standards, but he’s running wild on the bases and playing quality defense while hitting enough to be a useful reserve outfielder for a contender. True, Jon Jay is a more valuable trade chip — he’s doing more at the plate, is much cheaper, and is a pure rental — and he’s the pick here of my colleague Steve Adams. But I’m going with Bossman Junior for now because the Friars have shown some real salary-shedding motivation of late — not just in moving Shields, but also in the very swap that brought Jay to San Diego (for Jedd Gyorko and a big chunk of his contract) and, to some extent, both the Craig Kimbrel deal and the trade that landed Drew Pomeranz (with over $5MM of salary going with the players that headed to the A’s). The time may be right to offload as much as possible of the Pads’ remaining commitment (he’s earning $15.45MM this year and $16.45MM next). On the topic of shedding salary, the Padres would probably love to shed Matt Kemp’s deal, but it’s tough to envision suitors lining up for a .249 OBP, even if his production has been on the upswing for 10 games or so.

—

Falling Out:

Chris Carter, 1B, Brewers — He is now in an extended stretch of marginal hitting, which reduces the goodwill he built up early.

Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins — Plouffe continues to underwhelm, and the Twins’ trade intentions remain unclear despite their increasingly dire straits at the major league level.

Already Traded: James Shields (Padres to White Sox)

Just Missed:

Sonny Gray, Jed Lowrie, Ryan Madson & Sean Doolittle (Athletics) — We’ll see how Gray rebounds and how the A’s approach the deadline with respect to a core player who doesn’t need to be moved unless a great opportunity arises. All of these players come with future control, with high price tags likely being slapped onto Gray and Doolittle, especially.

Ender Inciarte (Braves) — Inciarte could have a future role in Atlanta and isn’t at peak value right now.

Jeremy Jeffress & Will Smith (Brewers) — Likewise, these two arms are affordable and controllable, so there’s no rush; but if the trade chatter picks up, and Smith proves he’s back, then both could move onto the board.

Jeremy Hellickson, David Hernandez, Andrew Bailey & Jeanmar Gomez (Phillies) — Philadelphia somewhat surprisingly still remains within striking distance of contention as of early June, but even that might not necessarily deter them from flipping Hellickson while his value is at a considerably higher point than it was when he was originally acquired. Hernandez is a one-year rental, and Gomez’s out-of-the-blue emergence as the team’s closer will balloon his arbitration salary, so perhaps the Phillies will look to sell high on him as well. Bailey hasn’t been healthy in years, but he’s whiffed 17 hitters in 17 2/3 innings this season, and is lined up to hit free agency this winter, so moving him certainly makes sense.

Brad Ziegler, Daniel Hudson, Tyler Clippard & Welington Castillo (Diamondbacks) — I’m bumping the fading D-Backs into the likely seller camp, but their intentions remain unclear and all of their most obvious potential chips come with some questions (both as to quality and the willingness of the team to move them).

Andrew Cashner, Derek Norris, Jon Jay & Fernando Rodney (Padres) — Cashner and Norris just haven’t performed thus far. Rodney has, at least in the earned run department (he hasn’t allowed one), but the K/BB ratio doesn’t suggest vintage Rodney and there’s some batted-ball luck (.167 BABIP-against). On the other hand, his swinging-strike rate has recovered to prime levels and his batted-ball profile (lots of soft contact and grounders) looks like it did in Rodney’s excellent 2012-13 seasons, so he’s certainly one to watch.

Zack Cozart (Reds) — Always a gifted defender, Cozart’s bat is on the rise again this year, but it remains to be seen how interested Cincinnati is in moving him and the demand side at shortstop remains unclear. Fellow infielders Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips both have no-trade rights and big contracts, so unless something changes they don’t seem likely to move.

Ervin Santana (Twins) — Santana is not so different from Shields at this stage of their respective careers, so he could rise with some improved results.

Injured: Tyson Ross (Padres), Josh Reddick (Athletics)

Not Yet Eligible: I’m still not quite willing to push the Rays, Yankees, or Angels into the selling ranks. All of these clubs still are holding out hopes of contention, and the latter two in particular will likely wait until the bitter end before making their best assets available.

20 Top Prospects Whose Call-Ups Could Impact The Trade Market

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June and July are notable not just for the run-up to the trade deadline, but also a typically robust set of promotions of top prospects. These things are intertwined, of course: teams are motivated at least in some part to see what they can expect out of their top-level talent before deciding whether to pull the trigger for veterans.

There are other factors at play, too. Developmental prerogatives are important, and at this stage clubs have a better idea whether certain players are ready for the challenge of a full run at the majors. And service time is always a critical consideration. While there is no firm Super Two cut-off, teams can generally expect players called up for the first time in early June to fall shy of qualifying for an added year of arbitration. Those youngsters who have already had a taste of MLB action, meanwhile, will at some point no longer have a chance of reaching a full season’s worth of service time by the end of the year.

Several impactful players were brought up last year in the months of June and July. Youngsters like Carlos Correa, Kyle Schwarber, Steven Matz, Michael Conforto, Luis Severino, and Stephen Piscotty all played significant roles for organizations that made the post-season. And others — Miguel Sano, Francisco Lindor, Joe Ross, Aaron Nola, Ketel Marte — were quality performers at the game’s highest level.

We’ve already seen several youngsters reach the majors in recent weeks. Julio Urias, for instance, has made two starts for the Dodgers, exhibiting his immense talent while also struggling to record outs. And Byron Buxton recently received another shot with the Twins after underwhelming early results.

With less than two months to go until the trade deadline, here are some other top names whose potential promotions could have a big impact on the market:

Ready For A Second Shot

Trea Turner, Nationals: It seemed for a moment that the 22-year-old was set for his first real shot at earning a full-time job at shortstop. Instead, he only saw action in one game while filling in over the weekend. Turner has proven himself at Triple-A already; he reached the level last year, and owns a .310/.376/.472 batting line with 17 steals in 17 attempts thus far in 2016. If he is able to gain traction in the majors, then Washington could comfortably forego pursuit of an outside alternative to supplement its defensively-proficient but offensively-challenged shortstop duo of Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew.

Blake Snell, Rays: The talented lefty already made an impressive debut earlier this year, but that spot start only suggested what he could do with an extended opportunity. Snell has seen his walk rate move in the wrong direction at Triple-A, but he’s still proving extremely difficult to hit. Of course, Tampa Bay is blessed with a number of rotation options — all the more so once Alex Cobb is back. But that’s precisely what makes Snell so interesting: if the team is willing to give him a shot, it could free up other arms for trade bait.

Joey Gallo, Rangers: He appeared briefly with Texas in 2016 after a lengthier stint last season, but Gallo still hasn’t been given a full shot at the majors since an excellent start to the year at Triple-A in which he’s shown new-found plate discipline while maintaining his eye-popping power. What’s interesting about Gallo’s situation is that he could conceivably impact Texas by stepping in for Mitch Moreland or Prince Fielder, either of whom could theoretically be traded, or by turning into a huge trade piece in his own right if the team decides to chase a top-end starter.

Jose Peraza, Reds: Cincinnati may face a tough question with shortstop Zack Cozart, who has another year of control remaining and is playing at a high level on both offense and defense. He could potentially bring an appealing return — as might Brandon Phillips, if he’ll waive his no-trade clause — but the Reds may be hesitant to throw too much uncertainty into the infield mix. That’s where Peraza could come in. He’s received a taste of the majors in each of the last two years, though he’s struggled. While he’s not exactly tearing up Triple-A, Peraza is hitting at a reasonable enough rate (.295/.335/.389, with eight steals) to warrant a full opportunity.

Clamoring For A First Call-Up

Jameson Taillon / Tyler Glasnow, Pirates: While the Bucs have had some ups and downs in their major league rotation, they have two high-powered righties tearing up Triple-A. Either or both could be throwing in the majors sooner rather than later. Pittsburgh will need to watch their innings, but could conceivably utilize them from the pen as well as in the rotation to maximize the impact. If that takes place, the Pirates may even end up with some excess arms at the deadline.

Alex Reyes, Cardinals: After missing the start of the year due to a marijuana suspension, Reyes has turned in three quality starts at Triple-A. The 21-year-old could obviate the need for the Cards to make an addition to the rotation or the pen, depending upon how their needs shake out. While the lost time early sapped some developmental opportunity, it did also serve to slow Reyes’s innings, which will be controlled since he’s only barely topped 100 total frames in prior years. St. Louis will also need to consider his still-high walk rate, too, though all those concerns would be lessened if Reyes were deployed as a late-inning reliever.

Matt Chapman, Athletics: In his first full shot at Double-A, Chapman owns a .243/.345/.495 slash with 14 home runs in just 238 plate appearances. As a third-year pro who was taken out of college, and is seen as a quality fielder, it seems fair to think he could be ready for a big league chance in the relatively near term. If Chapman proves ready, then Danny Valencia or Jed Lowrie could become trade pieces.

Alex Bregman, Astros: As it seeks to climb out of an early hole, Houston could go in any number of directions. Bringing up Bregman could conceivably provide a boost at the major league level while also turning Luis Valbuena into a trade piece. While he’s destroying Double-A pitching, though, the recent draftee is still learning a new position in his first full season as a professional. (For those wondering: yes, I also considered A.J. Reed, but Jon Singleton could now be first in line for a first base promotion.)

Hunter Renfroe / Manuel Margot, Padres: The Friars could stand to give their fans something to look forward to upon arriving at the park while getting a look at some of their rising talent. Renfroe has twice cracked twenty long balls in a season, and he’s already got a dozen through his first 212 plate appearances in his first full attempt at Triple-A. He owns a .950+ OPS in over 300 trips to the plate at the minors’ highest level over the last two seasons. Margot, meanwhile, is just 21, but he’s impressed with a .305/.363/.436 slash and 16 stolen bases in his first 248 Triple-A plate appearances. Adding either or both to the big league mix could help free the team to deal Melvin Upton, Jon Jay, and/or Matt Kemp.

Orlando Arcia, Brewers: One of the game’s best shortstop prospects, the 21-year-old Arcia has continued to produce upon reaching the highest level of the minors. He’s off to a .309/.344/.420 start, with four long balls and nine stolen bases, over 221 plate appearances. It’s unclear whether Milwaukee will choose to start his service clock, but adding the talented youngster to the infield mix could accompany a trade of veteran Aaron Hill.

Ready To Come Up, But Held Down?

Tim Anderson, White Sox: Chicago is already said to be looking for early trade strikes, so it appears that the time is now for the South Siders. Anderson is not exactly destroying Triple-A pitching, with a .297/.321/.392 slash and ten swipes, but the Sox could choose to gamble on his talent. On the other hand, though Jimmy Rollins isn’t doing much with the bat, he’s a sturdy defender, and Tyler Saladino has been a solid all-around contributor.

Bradley Zimmer / Clint Frazier, Indians: The Indians outfield always looked short on strong options and susceptible of upgrades, and despite some sturdy performances from surprising places that still appears to be the case. Recent developments only increase the need. Though it’s said to be unlikely that Cleveland will bump up either of its top prospects, both are currently laying waste to Double-A pitching. It’s worth remembering, too, that the Mets got a huge boost last year from Conforto after he skipped the highest level of the minors. And giving a shot to one or both of these top youngsters could allow Cleveland to avoid paying a high price to acquire a veteran at the deadline.

Albert Almora, Cubs: The Cubbies are already loaded with high-performing, young talent, but they could add to that group with Schwarber down for the year. Almora only recently turned 22, but is putting up a strong .322/.339/.450 batting line with ten stolen bases in his first attempt at the Triple-A level. Of course, the opportunity won’t come easy — though Jason Heyward is scuffling, he’s not going anywhere, and the Cubs are getting outstanding production from reserves Matt Szczur and Tommy La Stella. The same goes for 24-year-old Willson Contreras, who is putting up Schwarber-esque numbers at Triple-A but is still looking up at Miguel Montero, David Ross, and Tim Federowicz.

Jose De Leon, Dodgers: Los Angeles has shown little hesitation in relying on young players in big roles — Urias being the most recent example — but it’s unclear what they intend to do with the 23-year-old right-hander. He was handled with care early this year, and only has a single Triple-A appearance on his ledger … but it was a doozy, as he allowed just two hits and one walk while striking out nine in five innings of shutout work. That slow start also means that De Leon has plenty of innings left in the tank after reaching a career-high of 114 1/3 frames a season ago.

Pick It Up For A Call-Up

Jose Berrios, Twins: Berrios has dominated at every level during his steady rise, but was knocked around in four big league starts earlier this year. He has uncharacteristically walked 29 batters in 48 total innings on the year between the bigs and the top level of the minors, so he’ll need to re-establish his command before earning another chance. If Berrios can do that, though, he’d possibly help the club ship out a veteran starter over the summer.

Carson Fulmer, White Sox: While Fulmer doesn’t profile as a near-term rotation options, the scuttlebutt was that he could reach the pen in short order. But he’ll need to turn things around quickly at Double-A to make it to the majors as swiftly as had been hoped. Fulmer has walked nearly as many batters as he’s struck out while posting a 5.54 ERA in a starting role.

Aaron Judge, Yankees: We’ve heard some chatter that New York could look to trade away a veteran such as Carlos Beltran to clear the way for Judge while still remaining competitive. I remain skeptical of that scenario, particularly since Judge has yet to conquer Triple-A through nearly 500 plate appearances over the last two seasons.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s a recap of the original analysis MLBTR offered over the past seven days:

  • With the second month of the season in the books, Tim Dierkes updated his free agent power rankings in advance of the offseason. Tim’s list consists of the 10 players who appear poised to earn the most money if they hit the open market over the winter.
  • Now that June is upon us, Jeff Todd looked back at the month’s notable trades from 2012-15.
  • Jeff also ranked the top 10 trade candidates as the Aug. 1 deadline draws closer.
  • Mark Polishuk looked at six mid- to low-tier pending free agents who improved their stock with strong May performances.
  • With last year’s World Series finalists, the Royals and Mets, dealing with major injuries at third base, Jeff ran down 10 potential replacements the teams could turn to.
  • Right-hander Julio Teheran will be one of the most appealing players on the summer trade market if the Braves make him available, so I tried to find a fit for the 25-year-old.

Looking For A Match In A Julio Teheran Trade

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The Braves entered the season amid a full rebuild, so it’s hardly a surprise that they’ve shown a willingness to ship away veterans during their National League-worst 16-37 start. Two months into the season, Atlanta has already moved a pair of right-handers, starter Jhoulys Chacin and reliever Jason Grilli, for younger players. The club is understandably less eager to trade its premier major league asset, fellow righty Julio Teheran, as general manager John Coppolella has stated multiple times since last weekend.

On the possibility of dealing the 25-year-old Teheran, Coppolella told FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, “The days of us trading players like Teheran for prospects are over. We need to get better at the major league level. We would have to be overwhelmed to move Teheran.”

Coppollela then informed Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball that he expects Teheran to remain with the Braves for “a long time.”

Teheran is indeed slated to stay in Atlanta for the foreseeable future, having agreed to a pact in 2014 that could keep him there through the 2020 season. That team-friendly contract is undoubtedly a significant part of Teheran’s allure to the Braves and the rest of the league. Teheran’s run prevention (3.37 ERA in 701 2/3 innings) and durability (three straight 30-start seasons) only add to his appeal. Skeptics would point to his less shiny ERA estimators (3.88 FIP, 3.94 xFIP and 3.86 SIERA), mediocre 2015 campaign, this year’s velocity drop and the fact that he has been prone to hard contact as reasons for concern, however.

Julio Teheran

From a contractual standpoint, Teheran is currently on a relatively meager $3.3MM salary and has a chance to rake in another $37.3MM, including a $12MM club option, over the final four years of his deal. Teheran, therefore, doesn’t need to be particularly dominant to live up to the contract. Thanks to his strong start this season (68 1/3 innings with a 2.77 ERA, 8.17 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9), FanGraphs already values Teheran’s 2016 contributions at $8.4MM. And thanks to both Teheran’s first two months and the weak-looking class of upcoming free agent starters, now might be an opportune time for the Braves to at least consider moving him.

In order for the Braves to actually sell Teheran, Coppolella told Rosenthal he would need a major league hitter of comparable age and quality in return. The problem, if you want to call it that, is such a trade could be a pipe dream for Atlanta. For one, pitchers are more susceptible to injuries than position players, so teams might not be willing to take the risk. Secondly, contending clubs with their eyes on Teheran would be creating a hole just to patch another if they were to swap a hitter for him.

The Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers and Marlins are among playoff hopefuls who could explore the summer market for starters, and their similar-to-Teheran position players include third baseman Travis Shaw, outfielder Yasiel Puig, third bagger Nick Castellanos and center fielder Marcell Ozuna. It’s doubtful, however, that any of them will be on the move.

Shaw has done nothing but produce since debuting in the majors last season, and he appears primed to man the hot corner in Boston until at least the beginning of the distant Rafael Devers era. Puig has unexpectedly performed like merely an average player since last season, but the Dodgers still seem to need him more than they need another starter. Castellanos has been one of the majors’ top hitters this year, and the Tigers don’t have a replacement for him at the big league level – nor do they have imminent help coming from their farm system. Ozuna has not only been the Marlins’ most valuable outfielder this year (no small feat with Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich alongside him), but he’s also their best defensive option in center.

The Red Sox were willing to move 24-year-old catcher/outfielder Blake Swihart for a No. 2-type starter as of last month, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported, but Swihart alone isn’t definitively worth Teheran. The Braves were at least enamored of Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler in the past, Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote in October, though Chicago subsequently added John Lackey in free agency. With Lackey complementing Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel, the Cubs have arguably the most well-rounded rotation in the league from one to five (though they’re still reportedly seeking depth). Further, they probably aren’t keen on the idea of parting with outfield depth in the wake of Kyle Schwarber’s season-ending injury. There’s also the fact that Soler has underwhelmed since bursting on the scene in 2014 with a fantastic 24-game showing.

With no clear fit mentioned above, it’s fair to wonder what the prospect cutoff is for the John Hart- and Coppolella-led Braves. Would the team really scoff at sending Teheran to, say, the pitching-needy Rangers in a package for one of their excellent 22-year-old prospects, power-hitting, cannon-armed third baseman Joey Gallo or outfielder Lewis Brinson? The Pirates also have rotation issues — granted, they have in-house reinforcements on the way in Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow and perhaps Chad Kuhl — and their stellar outfield trio of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco looks primed to block the big league path of 21-year-old Austin Meadows. Even if the Braves were receptive to sending away Teheran in a package for any of those players, there’s obviously no guarantee the youngsters’ current organizations would be open to it. All three entered the season among Baseball America’s top 25 prospects, after all (Gallo 10th, Brinson 16th and Meadows 22nd), to cite one reputable outlet’s list.

If it truly takes an overwhelming haul for Atlanta to deal Teheran, then it’s fair to expect he won’t follow Shelby Miller out of town. The Diamondbacks drew almost universal criticism from the moment they traded Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair for Miller during the winter, and that deal has so far blown up in Arizona’s face. The Braves are highly unlikely to net a comparable package for Teheran – nor will it be easy to land an accomplished, in-his-prime big league hitter in return – so he’s a good bet to continue in Atlanta if Coppolella’s public statements are how he actually feels. Of course, given Teheran’s age, performance and contract, the Braves’ backs aren’t against the wall in this case. Barring injury, simply keeping him wouldn’t qualify as a disastrous decision, and Coppolella appears content to do just that.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

10 Potential Replacements For Mike Moustakas And David Wright

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A pair of teams have been struck with significant blows on the injury front in the past week, as the Royals announced last week that Mike Moustakas has a torn anterior cruciate ligament, while the Mets announced today that David Wright won’t even participate in any baseball activities for the next six weeks to two months. That injury ended Moustakas’ season, while Wright’s could leave him sidelined into mid-August or even September, as he’ll need awhile to get back up to speed after a potentially eight-week layoff.

Both clubs have internal options from which to choose — Cheslor Cuthbert, Whit Merrifield and Hunter Dozier for the Royals; Wilmer Flores and Matt Reynolds for the Mets — but injuries of that magnitude tend to eventually lead a team to explore the outside market. It doesn’t seem likely that either club will leap into action immediately, as one might expect had these injuries occurred closer to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, but if and when they do explore the trade scene, there’s no shortage of options on which to inquire.

Let’s run down some names that could plausibly be in play…

Trevor Plouffe / Eduardo Nunez, Twins: With Minnesota staring at a virtually insurmountable climb in the AL Central, their infield options could be available sooner than most. Plouffe isn’t off to a good start (.246/.277/.362), but he batted .248/.312/.426 in 2200 plate appearances from 2012-15, showing 20-homer pop and steadily improving his glovework along the way. Plouffe is earning $7.25MM this year, so he’s not exactly a cheap asset, but if he turns it around at the dish, he’s controllable through 2017. He can also help out at first base, where the Mets are presently missing Lucas Duda. Nunez, meanwhile, is more of a utility option, but he’s played quite a bit of third in his career and has enjoyed a brilliant start to the 2016 season, hitting .331/.358/.509. He’s not a great defender, but he’s a competent bat with plenty of speed on the bases and a low salary. Nunez is earning $1.475MM this season and can be controlled through 2017 as well.

Yangervis Solarte, Padres: Executive chairman Ron Fowler voiced disgust with his team’s 2016 performance earlier this week and, in doing so, signaled that changes could be on the horizon. The number of Padres players that have underperformed this season limit their trade chips on the summer market, but the quietly steady Solarte has been excellent since returning from a hamstring injury. He’s hitting .339/.429/.593, and while no one should expect that to continue, he’s a .269/.334/.411 hitter since debuting in 2014 despite playing the majority of his games at Petco Park. He’ll be arbitration eligible for the first time this winter and is controllable through 2019, so the Padres would ask for a legitimate return.

Jed Lowrie / Danny Valencia, Athletics: Like Nunez, Lowrie embodies the “jack of all trades, master of none” profile, as he’s capable of playing many positions on the diamond but doesn’t draw positive defensive marks in most instances. Third base is the one exception, as he’s been a positive there in the eyes of both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Lowrie has been playing mostly second base this season, but he logged nearly 400 innings at the hot corner last year in Houston. He’s batting .315/.355/.364 and earning $7.5MM this season. He’ll earn $6.5MM next year, and his contract contains a $6MM club option for the 2018 campaign (which comes with a $1MM buyout). Valencia would require a larger return, given his excellent production over the past calendar year, and the Royals have already been down that road once before, while the Mets may not have a regular spot for him late in the year. As an affordable slugger with a year of control remaining beyond 2016, he’s certainly appealing, and it’s tough to definitively rule out any trade when it comes to the A’s.

Yunel Escobar, Angels: The last-place Halos might not be waving the white flag just yet, but with baseball’s most injury-riddled pitching staff and a dismal farm system from which to draw reinforcements, things are bleak in Anaheim. Escobar has been a bright spot at the plate (.306/.362/.416) while earning just $7MM, and he comes with a 2017 option for the same price. Escobar’s poor defense weighs down the value brought to the table by his bat, and he’s also drawn questionable reviews (to put things mildly) for his clubhouse presence in the past. But, his premium contact skills would fit in well with the Royals’ philosophy, and he’s capable of playing multiple positions.

Luis Valbuena, Astros: The 30-year-old doesn’t look like he’s going to come close to matching last season’s career-best 25 homers. Valbuena is hitting .223/.320/.399 with six big flies on the year, demonstrating a solid walk rate but also a penchant for strikeouts. The left-handed-hitter is best deployed as a platoon option, which might make his $6.125MM salary steep, but Houston could be willing to absorb some of that salary. Former No. 2 overall pick Alex Bregman is demolishing minor league pitching and may be on the cusp of the Majors, so the Astros would probably be comfortable moving their starting third baseman even if they still aim to contend.

Kelly Johnson, Braves: Johnson looks primed to experience some deja vu this summer. After signing a one-year deal to return to the Braves (who originally drafted him) during the 2014-15 offseason, he found himself flipped to the Mets alongside Juan Uribe. Johnson isn’t hitting like he did in 2015, but he’s a known commodity to the Mets and can play all over the infield. Given his struggles (.210/.276/.295), the cost of acquisition figures to be minimal. Even if he doesn’t end up in New York, he’s an obvious trade candidate.

Aaron Hill, Brewers: On the more productive side of the veteran scale is Hill, whose huge May has perhaps made him a more appealing target for clubs in need of some infield help. The 34-year-old’s season-to-date batting line rests at a productive .274/.346/.433, and while he’s historically been a second baseman, Hill has piled up 557 innings at the hot corner over the past two seasons. He’s earning a steep $12MM in 2016, but the D-backs are reportedly on the hook for $6.5MM of that sum, and I’d imagine that the Brewers would be willing to kick in some additional funds if it meant improving the return.

Alex Guerrero, Dodgers (for now): The Dodgers designated Guerrero, he of a four-year/$28MM contract (signed in 2013), for assignment earlier this week when he completed a minor league rehab assignment. Guerrero hasn’t lived up to his contract by any stretch of the means, but he also never got an opportunity at regular playing time. He’s a poor defender and has batted .224 with a .251 on-base percentage in the Majors, but he also slugged .414 (.190 ISO) and ripped 11 homers in just 247 Major League PAs over the past two seasons. Guerrero owns a lifetime .303/.385/.526 batting line in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, and mashed at a .323/.357/.598 clip in 266 Triple-A plate appearances with the Dodgers. It’s unlikely that a team would be willing to take on the remainder of his contract in a trade, but Guerrero could soon be released, thus freeing him to sign with any club willing to roll the dice.

Certainly, there are other names to consider. Each team can explore everything from bad contract (e.g. Chase Headley) to former prospects now in the upper minors (e.g. Will Middlebrooks), to elite prospects like Joey Gallo that may be somewhat “blocked” at the MLB level (though the latter of the three presents further long-term roster maneuvering). And, as is the case every year, other names will most likely surface as trade candidates once the non-waiver trade deadline draws closer. However, for a pair of clubs in tight races for the division lead — the Royals hold a 1.5 game lead on the AL Central, while the Mets are three back in the NL East — acting sooner rather than later to fill a void can make a sizable impact.

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