MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | July 3, 2016 at 8:01am CDT

Here’s a recap of the original analysis MLBTR offered this week:

We’re now less than a month from the deadline, and Jeff Todd increased his weekly top trade candidate series from 15 players who could be on the move to 20. Reds right fielder Jay Bruce tops the list.
Also on the list (in sixth) is Reds shortstop Zack Cozart, for whom Jeff ran down several possible landing spots via trade.
Similarly, Mark Polishuk tried to find a fit for Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun, who’s among Jeff’s top five trade candidates.
Triple-A first baseman Josh Bell, one of the Pirates’ premier farmhands, headlined this week’s edition of Jason Martinez’s “Knocking Down the Door” series. Jason also highlighted four other prospects who are doing their best to receive major league promotions. One of those players ultimately earned a big league call-up earlier this week.
To cap off the week, Jason detailed its five most important roster decisions.

The 5 Most Important Roster Decisions Of The Week

By Jason Martinez | July 1, 2016 at 3:20pm CDT

1. Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw (Herniated Disc in Back) Placed On 15-Day DL; Bud Norris Acquired From Braves

The Dodgers’ disabled list already had a pretty good quartet of starting pitchers—Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-jin Ryu and Alex Wood. Now they’ll be joined by the best pitcher in baseball.

Kershaw, who has been diagnosed with a mild disc herniation in his lower back, is the biggest reason his team is currently seven games over .500 and at the top of the Wild Card standings. They’ll be forced to lean heavily on Kenta Maeda in his first MLB season as well as Scott Kazmir, who has a 4.67 ERA and has only completed six innings in seven of his 16 starts. Kershaw’s injury also means that 19-year-old Julio Urias, who the Dodgers had planned on moving to the bullpen in the near future in order to limit his workload, will likely stick around in the rotation for a bit longer, as will Brock Stewart, who made his MLB debut on Wednesday after starting the year in High-A.

With the two most likely internal candidates to replace Kershaw, at least for his scheduled start on Friday, being Jharel Cotton (4.98 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 10.7 K/9 in Triple-A) and Chase De Jong (2.45 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 8.2 K/9 in Double-A), the Dodgers decided to trade for Braves pitcher Bud Norris, who would be sufficiently rested for Friday’s start and had been pitching well as of late.

After a rough start to the season—he posted an 8.74 ERA in five starts before being banished to the bullpen —the 31-year-old Norris has bounced back nicely since returning to rotation in early June (2.15 ERA, 29.1 IP, 21 H, 8 BB, 29 K in five starts). He’ll make his Dodgers debut against the Rockies at Dodgers Stadium, where he has a career 3.10 ERA in 29 innings pitched.

Dodgers Depth Chart

2. Nationals SP Stephen Strasburg (Strained Upper Back) Placed on 15-Day DL; SP Lucas Giolito Promoted From Double-A

While the Nats could’ve went the boring route to replace Stephen Strasburg by inserting the versatile Yusmeiro Petit into the starting rotation, they did the baseball world a favor by calling up Lucas Giolito, who many consider to be the top pitching prospect in baseball.

The only disappointment in Giolito’s MLB debut against the division rival Mets on Tuesday was that his start was cut short because of a rain delay. In his four scoreless innings of work, the 21-year-old allowed one measly hit to go along with a pair of walks.

So is Giolito up for good? That probably depends on the state of the rotation when Strasburg is ready to return. But Giolito has probably earned at least another start or two and the Nats can be patient with Strasburg as long as the youngster is pitching well. However many innings the Nats will allow him to throw this season—he’s at 75 innings so far after throwing 117 innings in 2015—it sure would be fun to see them utilized at the big league level.

Nationals Depth Chart

3. Mets LF Michael Conforto Optioned To Triple-A; Brandon Nimmo Promoted From Triple-A

Michael Conforto had a great rookie season in 2015. He had a great start to the 2016 season. Then he struggled, just like any big leaguer struggles. The league had figured out how to get him out. Almost two months into his prolonged slump, it was evident that the 23-year-old was having a hard time making an adjustment to these latest plans of attack.

Therefore, the Mets have attempted to shake things up by sending Conforto to Triple-A last weekend and giving another young prospect, Brandon Nimmo, a chance to spark a struggling Mets offense. It hasn’t happened. At least not yet.

With only five singles and no walks in 20 at-bats, the 23-year-old Nimmo’s Triple-A success (.917 OPS in 63 games) hasn’t carried over during his first week in the majors. He’ll need to pick up the pace if he’s to hold off Conforto (5-for-16, HR, 3 BB, K in Triple-A), who shouldn’t need much time to get back on track.

Mets Depth Chart

4. Athletics RF Josh Reddick Activated From 15-Day DL

One of the biggest potential trade chips of the 2016 season, Reddick has returned to action after missing more than a month with a fractured thumb. He’ll have plenty of time to establish his value and set the A’s up for a nice return prior to the August 1st deadline.

While he isn’t likely to maintain his .310 batting average and .383 on-base percentage—he’s 1-for-9 with one walk since being activated on Tuesday—the 29-year-old is a solid all-around player who can hit 20 homers and knock in 75 runs while hitting at the top, middle or bottom of a contending team’s lineup.

Billy Beane acquired Sean Manaea and Daniel Mengden in separate pre-deadline deals in 2015 for Ben Zobrist and Scott Kazmir. He could be in an even better position this year with Reddick and Rich Hill.

Athletics Depth Chart

5. Rays Closer Alex Colome (Biceps Tendinitis) Placed On 15-Day DL; Closer To Be Determined

New closer alert! Well, not really. The last place Rays aren’t really ahead enough in the 9th inning for it to matter very much and this might actually be the least inspiring group of closing candidates I’ve ever seen. If the decision has been made on who’ll get the ball in the 9th inning of a close game, it hasn’t been announced.

“Closer-by-committee” is a common short-term solution whenever a closer goes on the disabled list or has pitched himself out of a job. In most cases, it’s just a way of not putting too much pressure on the guy who is expected to be the first in line for the job.

But in the case of the Rays, their “committee” consists of a few pitchers who don’t have the typical closer’s arsenal of at least one “plus” pitch and none are having very good years in their current lesser-leverage roles. But the opportunity to earn a save will probably arise before Alex Colome or Brad Boxberger returns from the disabled list. Until then, we can only guess if it will be Erasmo Ramirez, Xavier Cedeño, Matt Andriese, Danny Farquhar or someone else who is first in line.

CORRECTION: The Rays did have a save opportunity in Thursday’s game. Ryan Garton started the 9th inning with a 7-2 lead and departed with a 7-3 lead and the bases loaded after four consecutive singles. Ramirez entered the game and proceeded to record one out and give up two walks, two singles and a double before exiting with his team down 10-7. I’m guessing that he might not get another shot.

Rays Depth Chart

Top 20 Trade Candidates

By Jeff Todd | July 1, 2016 at 1:26pm CDT

With the deadline just over a month away, the top trade candidate series keeps trucking. I’ll be honest: this post required a re-write after yesterday’s action. The list is in flux with Fernando Rodney (who would’ve been #4) and Bud Norris (he’d have cracked the back of the ranking) changing hands … not to mention Sean Doolittle and Jon Jay hitting the DL, some injured players returning, and others pushing into trade contention. We’re also rolling out our second expansion of the ranking.

Your weekly reminder: we’re not just ranking players by skill alone; we’re looking at overall asset value and trade likelihood. To assess trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field ability — with a premium on the capacity to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit. With regard to the likelihood of a swap, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t in a position at present where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.

Here’s this week’s list:

1. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds — The song remains the same. Teams looking for lefty pop are surely weighing a move for Bruce. His $13MM option for next year is increasingly looking nice, as the coming free agent market isn’t the most exciting. Acquiring teams could pencil Bruce in for 2017 or see that added control as a trade asset to recoup the value given to add him. With Jon Jay seemingly falling out of trade contention due to an unfortunate injury, that only increases the appeal of the other corner outfielders on the market.

2. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers — Not much to add here, either. The question is still whether sufficient demand will develop. From my perspective, it’s hard to imagine that no teams will be truly motivated to add a premium player on a budget deal.

3. Josh Reddick, OF, Athletics — Reddick moves right off the DL and onto this list for the first time. We’ve heard plenty about the possibility of an extension, and that still seems plausible. But players of his quality on expiring contracts with underperforming teams usually end up being traded, and I don’t think that the possibility of a qualifying offer will be much of a factor. Reddick is hitting at career-best rates and is playing on a very reasonable $6.575MM salary.

4. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers — I’m increasingly questioning whether enough demand will develop to motivate Milwaukee here. Braun might be an easier player to deal in the offseason, when he’d represent an alternative to forthcoming free agents like Yoenis Cespedes and Jose Bautista. On the other hand, clubs could see some merit in doing their winter shopping early while adding a premium right-handed bat for the stretch run.

5. Danny Valencia, 3B, Athletics — The OPS still resides comfortably above .900. One important factor in his trade value and likelihood: the presence of several other viable third base options on the market.

6. Zack Cozart, SS, Reds — We just broke down Cozart’s market situation, so read there for more. Teams looking for a useful hitter with a premium glove up the middle probably won’t find a better or more affordable option. That said, demand remains unclear and Cinci doesn’t need to deal him right now.

7. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Rays — Odorizzi makes a big move into the top ten. It’s hardly necessary for Tampa Bay to trade him, of course, as he’ll only reach arb eligibility next year. But with the club falling back of late while dealing with numerous injuries, the appeal of cashing in a sturdy, controllable starter in a seller’s market is increasing. And if the team’s rehabbing starters remain on course, dealing from the rotation might not even be that painful. Especially if the Braves hold firm on Teheran, perhaps Tampa Bay could get a nice return for Odorizzi.

8. Arodys Vizcaino, RP, Braves — Vizcaino hasn’t always had premium strikeout numbers, but they are trending up this season. He has reeled off three straight solid outings since we last checked in, despite a few recent duds, so it’s not so much that he’s moving down the list as it is that the others are moving up.

9. Mark Melancon, RP, Pirates — The Pirates’ closer keeps getting the job done: he hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 15th and has surrendered just two hits in his nine frames this month. Even if Pittsburgh doesn’t move other assets, it’ll have to seriously consider cashing in a player who will be a free agent at the end of the year. While he isn’t as electric as some other top late-inning relievers, and though his peripherals aren’t all that exciting (particularly with his groundball rate diving thus far), Melancon is the type of rental that could bring back a really nice piece in return.

10. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves — GM John Coppolella suggested recently that Teheran is nearly as untouchable as Freddie Freeman, though it remains unclear what body part he’d stake on the righty. (If you don’t get that reference, read here for Coppy’s comments from the offseason.)

11. Rich Hill, SP, Athletics — While he’s still technically on the DL, Hill is set to be activated on Saturday. That said, he won’t reclaim his top-five status on this list until he has shown that he’s at full capacity. Though his groin injury isn’t particularly concerning, the larger injury history and stunning late-career rise will already give some teams pause. Still, the starter rental market is in shambles and he could yet be a prime deadline asset.

12. Drew Pomeranz, SP, Padres — Pomeranz has had some shaky outings that leave you wondering whether he truly has found something. But his most recent outing was a gem, and he’s carrying a 2.76 ERA through 88 frames. The MLBTR staff recently debated whether or not San Diego should deal Pomeranz away. He’s cheap and controllable, which will certainly hold huge appeal for teams that don’t want to burn up prospects for pure rentals, but that also makes him quite useful for the Friars — who could also let him try to build more value and then spin him off over the winter.

13. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Phillies — Hellickson isn’t a guy you add with expectations that he’ll be starting postseason games, but he has certainly pitched well enough to plug a hole in a rotation. There’s a ton of value in that for teams looking to eke out wins in tight races, and he seems rather likely to be dealt before he reaches free agency this fall.

14. Jeremy Jeffress, RP, Brewers — You’re probably not adding Jeffress as a closer, or perhaps even a pure eighth-inning guy, but that doesn’t mean he’s not going to draw interest. He has been consistently good for some time now, and teams won’t feel too bad about giving up value for him since there’s reasonably-priced control yet to come (though his saves tallies will eat into that).

15. Yunel Escobar, 3B, Angels — Escobar is a little dinged up, though he’s not yet on the DL. It’s doubtful that other organizations will view him as any kind of savior, but in the right situation he could be a critical stabilizing piece. Plus, he could be plugged into different positions in 2017 or dealt over the winter to offset the initial acquisition cost.

16. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies — Even if a playoff berth remains rather unlikely, I just wonder whether there’s any real possibility of a deal coming together so long as Colorado hangs around .500. But Gonzalez is raking, so he could shoot up this list if and when the team can no longer plausibly claim any hope of contending.

17. Ervin Santana, SP, Twins — As with Hellickson, Santana seems ready to move right into the four or five slot of a contender with back-end rotation issues. The results aren’t exciting, but he has been durable and useful for quite some time now. He’s playing on a $13.5MM salary this year, with another $27MM to come over the next two, so any move would be about Minnesota saving some cash. Nobody is taking that full commitment, though, so the Twins will have to decide whether it’s worth trimming its future obligations or just keeping Santana around to fortify their own rotation for the next couple of seasons.

18. David Freese, 3B, Pirates — The sturdy veteran is hitting at levels he hasn’t seen since 2012, and he’s doing it on a meager $3MM salary. Plus, Pittsburgh could easily cover for his absence, particularly with Jung Ho Kang back and Sean Rodriguez performing, so he could be sold without the organization abandoning all hope of contending.

19. Chris Carter, 1B, Brewers — He’s back! Carter made our first list but fell off after a rough stretch. They say he’s streaky, though, so let’s check in on his total results in June … oh, well. 253/.360/.494 with six home runs. That’ll do. An organization looking to plug some thump into its first base/DH rotation is going to have a tough time finding a more available and affordable option than Carter. The Brewers don’t have to deal him, and there’s not a ton of upside given his many limitations, but he has a place in the trade deadline landscape.

20. Melvin Upton, OF, Padres — Also returning to the list is the elder Upton brother. There are other fourth outfield types, as well as a few infielders and relievers, who also warranted consideration here — most of whom would probably be easier to move given their contracts. But San Diego has been the most aggressive seller thus far, and Upton’s strong work this year could make for an opportune time to dump a decent chunk of his remaining salary obligations.

Keep reading for more names that were considered …

Injured:

Tyson Ross & Jon Jay (Padres), Jake McGee (Rockies), Joe Smith (Angels), Steve Pearce (Rays), Sean Doolittle (Athletics), Gordon Beckham (Braves)

Just Missed:

Huston Street, Hector Santiago & Fernando Salas (Angels) — Los Angeles is all but buried at this point, but their stable of trade assets isn’t looking all that perky at the moment.

Sonny Gray, Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Ryan Madson & Billy Butler (Athletics) — Though the A’s have suggested they aren’t yet ready to pack it in, that’s where this thing is headed barring a miracle. I still don’t see Gray leaving unless a surprising offer comes across the table, but Oakland has some very appealing assets — the best of which are listed among the top twenty.

Ender Inciarte & Nick Markakis (Braves) — We haven’t heard of much development on the potential market for these Atlanta outfielders.

Will Smith & Aaron Hill (Brewers) — Smith could warrant a spot on the list, but he’s striking out opposing hitters at about half his usual rate. Milwaukee has no reason to sell low on him, so right now he doesn’t have much steam as a trade candidate. Hill has been uneven, but could be a useful utility piece for the right team.

Welington Castillo, Daniel Hudson, Brad Ziegler & Tyler Clippard (Diamondbacks) — GM Dave Stewart says that he wants to keep the bullpen band together if possible, and neither of the pending free agents (Hudson and Ziegler) is looking like a hot commodity at the moment. Hudson has had a very rough stretch of late, coughing up eight earned runs on ten hits over his last four outings. He has recorded just five outs in that span, none via strikeout. Meanwhile, Ziegler just keeps trucking along and would surely draw interest, but isn’t the kind of power arm that teams will give up a haul to get.

Andrew Cashner, Derek Norris & Matt Kemp (Padres) — Cashner is set to return from the DL on Sunday, so we’ll see if he can pitch his way into some interest. Norris is pushing for a seat at the table (er, placement on our list) with his recent productive run at the plate.

David Hernandez & Jeanmar Gomez (Phillies) — Hernandez has been knocked around this month, but Gomez is still humming along with solid results. Odds are, though, he won’t draw any kind of big offers despite the fact that he’s pitching in the ninth inning.

Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez, Andrew McCutchen, Juan Nicasio, Neftali Feliz, Tony Watson (Pirates) — It’s awfully tough to put a talented Pittsburgh team into the likely seller camp, but the club may need to be realistic with the Cubs seemingly running away with the division. The Bucs will be much more likely to re-tool for 2017 than anything else, but they have some interesting players on short-term contracts who could be cashed in — particularly if the organization decides the time is right to give a shot to some of its impressive upper-level prospects. Pittsburgh’s role on the market is a major wild card.

Logan Morrison, Matt Moore, Erasmo Ramirez & Xavier Cedeno (Rays) — The rumblings on Moore have increased, but it’s still tough to gauge where there’ll be more motivation to add him than to pursue Odorizzi, who has a better recent track record. Ramirez might just be the next player traded, though he isn’t exactly a major piece.

Mark Reynolds, Nick Hundley, Jorge De La Rosa, Ryan Raburn (Rockies) — There are some potentially useful veteran pieces here, but none that will likely move the needle on the team’s farm system enough to prompt a move from Colorado.

Fernando Abad, Trevor Plouffe & Eduardo Nunez (Twins) — Nunez was probably the last guy not to make the top twenty. He is falling off of his unsustainable pace but is still producing, but the results just haven’t been there for the other two.

Looking For A Match In A Ryan Braun Trade

By Mark Polishuk | June 30, 2016 at 1:05pm CDT

Ryan Braun was already into the fourth year of an eight-year, $45MM extension with the Brewers when he signed another extension that theoretically made him a Brewer for life. That deal, signed in April 2011, only just began this season — a five-year, $105MM extension covering the 2016-20 seasons that also includes a $15MM mutual option for 2021 (that can be bought out for $4MM).

The Brewers reached the NLCS in 2011 on the strength of Braun’s NL MVP numbers, though it’s been a rougher ride for both player and team ever since. Braun’s MVP was called into question after he tested positive for PEDs following the season, though that positive test was overturned in very controversial fashion. The outfielder then did face suspension for his part in the Biogenesis PED scandal, accepting a 65-game ban that prematurely cut short his 2013 season. Beyond the disciplinary issues, Braun has also had his share of injury problems, including a nagging nerve injury in his right thumb, a bad back that required surgery last offseason and some wrist and neck soreness this season.

So with Braun now in his age-32 season, there’s no question that he carries a fair amount of baggage for potential trade suitors. Beyond the salary, injury history and PED history, there’s also the fact that Braun wields a great deal of control over his movement via a 23-team no-trade clause. For 2016, the only six teams not on his list are the Angels, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins and Padres.

With all of this in mind, Braun is nonetheless one of baseball’s top trade candidates as we approach the August 1 deadline because he can still flat-out hit. He has cooled off a bit in June after a blazing-hot start, yet Braun is still hitting .325/.381/.557 with 13 homers in 270 plate appearances this season. When healthy, Braun is still a very dangerous bat who could improve virtually any contender’s lineup.

The Brewers find themselves in something of a kingmaker’s position this deadline, as they not only have Braun, but also perhaps the single biggest trade chip of all in catcher Jonathan Lucroy. I examined Lucroy’s trade market earlier in June and speculated that Milwaukee GM David Stearns could look to kill two birds with one stone by packaging Braun and Lucroy in the same trade; Lucroy’s team-friendly contract could make a team more willing to absorb all of Braun’s deal, leaving the Brew Crew with tons of future payroll flexibility.

Owner Mark Attanasio, however, is reportedly more focused on adding blue chip young talent to his organization than he is about getting Braun’s contract off the books. There are also relatively few teams that could realistically meet what would still be a substantial asking price for a Braun/Lucroy combo. It’s a fun idea from a blockbuster standpoint, though it’s probably not in the cards.

Focusing just on Braun, then, let’s go through the teams that could use corner outfield help. Braun shifted back to left field this season after playing right primarily in 2014-15, though his defensive metrics as a right fielder (minus-9 Defensive Runs Saved and -7.7 UZR/150) aren’t pretty. He could return to the position in a pinch with a new team, though it’s rather clear that Braun is more serviceable in left, where the metrics are split (31 DRS but -4.0 UZR/150 over his career in left field) on his glove.

Let’s begin with the six teams exempt from Braun’s no-trade list…

As I noted back in May, geography and personal ties likely played a role in Braun’s choices — he played college ball at the University of Miami and the other five teams are either in or near his hometown of Los Angeles. The Angels, Padres and Diamondbacks are more likely to be selling than adding at the deadline, while the Marlins are already set for star outfielders.

The Dodgers have plenty of outfield options but none who have consistently delivered in 2016, which could be why they’ve reportedly shown some interest in Jay Bruce. The Reds outfielder, however, is a better fit for L.A. as a left-handed hitter, plus he’s three years younger than Braun and is only under contract through this season (with a $13MM club option for 2017). So interest in Bruce doesn’t necessarily equate to interest in Braun for the Dodgers, though they have both the financial means to add Braun and the strong minor league system that would interest the Brewers.

The Giants have already touched base with the Brewers about Braun, though they lack the Dodgers’ minor league depth and could face a luxury tax crunch by adding Braun’s deal. Adding Braun would solidify left field for San Francisco, or he could play right until Hunter Pence returns (with the Angel Pagan/Gregor Blanco duo continuing to handle left). Looking beyond 2016, however, the Giants may not be keen on a Braun/Denard Span/Pence outfield given the injury histories and defensive limitations of all three veterans. While the Giants haven’t been shy in making big deadline additions under Brian Sabean and Bobby Evans, Braun doesn’t seem like an ideal fit.

Braun is also an imperfect fit for both NL contenders like the Cubs and Nationals, though you *could* make a case for either club with a bit of effort. Left field may technically be a weak spot for Chicago but they have plenty of internal options on hand. The Nats could address their center field problem by moving Bryce Harper back to center and adding Braun to play right, or perhaps left if Jayson Werth also switches corner spots. Washington, however, has so much future payroll already tied up in veteran players that acquiring Braun seems like a tall order, especially when you consider that the Nats face big arbitration raises for Harper and Anthony Rendon, if not contract extensions. The Nationals’ recent big expenditures have also contained millions in deferred payments (a nod to the club’s dispute with the Orioles over MASN broadcasting rights), so Braun’s contract is particularly undesirable for them.

This pretty much wraps up the NL for potential Braun suitors, as everyone else is either rebuilding or set in the outfield. The Mets now have a need in left with Michael Conforto’s demotion and rookie Brandon Nimmo holding the fort, though given how the Mets have been wary about adding salary in recent years, it’d be a shocker if they made a big push for Braun.

Given how a move to first base or DH may be in Braun’s long-term defensive future, an American League team could perhaps be an ideal fit for Braun through the rest of the decade. We’ve already written off the Angels, and (barring injury) the A’s, Blue Jays, Indians, Rangers, Rays, Royals, Tigers, Twins and Yankees can likely also be counted out of the Braun market due to payroll limitations, rebuilding or lack of a positional fit.

The Red Sox have both the money and the prospect depth to swing a deal for Braun, though offense isn’t really a need now or in the near-future. That being said, injuries have turned left field into a problem area — Blake Swihart is out until August with a nasty ankle sprain, Brock Holt has missed over a month with concussion symptoms and Chris Young’s return from a hamstring strain may be up in the air. Dave Dombrowski is no stranger to moving prospects for established stars, though if the Sox are indeed swayed to move one of their many highly-touted minor leaguers, it will probably be a trade for pitching instead of another bat. Speaking of blue chip prospects, the Red Sox also have left field earmarked for Andrew Benintendi perhaps as early as 2017, so they may not see the value in dealing for a pricey left fielder.

The Orioles could use a long-term power solution with Mark Trumbo and Matt Wieters potentially leaving in free agency this winter, and adding Braun would make an already-dangerous O’s lineup even scarier. Baltimore’s front office already surprised many with an uncharacteristic offseason spending spree, so maybe the O’s can raise more eyebrows by adding another big contract on August 1. With Hyun Soo Kim hitting well, however, it’s more probable that the O’s stick with the Kim/Nolan Reimold/Joey Rickard mix in left field and instead focus on adding pitching at the trade deadline. Baltimore’s low-rated farm system is also short on elite prospects that could get Milwaukee’s attention.

Like the O’s, the Mariners and White Sox also have thin farm systems (particularly if Chicago minor leaguers Tim Anderson and Carson Fulmer are indeed virtually untouchable in trade talks) but possess far more glaring needs in the outfield. Sox GM Rick Hahn has already made several aggressive moves to keep his team in the AL Central race, so targeting Braun can’t be entirely ruled out, especially with right fielder Avisail Garcia continuing to post sub-replacement level numbers in the majors.

The Mariners recently optioned Nori Aoki to Triple-A in the wake of a dismal season, leaving Seth Smith, Franklin Gutierrez, Nelson Cruz and Shawn O’Malley getting starts in the corner outfield spots. If Braun was obtained to play left, the M’s would suddenly have a very strong collection of a Smith/Gutierrez platoon in right, Leonys Martin’s defensive brilliance in center and Cruz mashing in his ideal DH spot. Seattle’s new ownership group is willing to increase payroll, though it remains to be seen if that extends to a Braun-sized financial commitment.

After spending almost three years as the Astros’ assistant GM, Stearns is very familiar with Houston’s deep farm system. The Astros have so few financial commitments beyond this season that Braun’s contract would easily fit, even if his addition would create a crowded outfield this season (Colby Rasmus probably supplants Evan Gattis at DH and could also get some time in center, though Carlos Gomez is turning things around after a brutal start). Going forward, Houston could let Rasmus walk in free agency and then have Braun hold things down in left until top prospect Kyle Tucker is ready for the majors.

As you can see, the list of teams willing and able to trade for a player on a nine-figure contract through his mid-30’s seasons is not a long one. Braun’s ability to keep producing, however, has revived his trade value despite the skeletons in his closet. Given that the Brewers are apparently open to eating some money to get better prospects, if Braun stays healthy and keeps hitting through July, it only takes one team to find Milwaukee’s sweet spot between salary owed and a strong minor league trade package.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA Today Sports Images

Looking For A Match In A Zack Cozart Trade

By Jeff Todd | June 28, 2016 at 11:59pm CDT

At thirty years of age, Zack Cozart has fully hit his stride as a ballplayer. Yet because of his early-career struggles at the plate and an ill-timed knee surgery last year, he’s earning just under $3MM this season with one more arbitration-eligible campaign to come. That makes him an interesting and affordable trade piece for the Reds.

A deal is far from a fait accompli, but seems increasingly likely as the market develops. Still, Cincinnati could certainly justify holding onto him if a fair offer isn’t forthcoming. As I recently noted in ranking Cozart among the game’s top fifteen trade candidates, though, he will quite likely be the best shortstop available. Particularly since he was kind enough to acknowledge his MLBTR readership recently, we thought it made sense to take a look at where he could end up playing next.

Cozart began turning heads last year, when he came out of the gates with a strong .258/.310/.459 batting line and nine home runs over 214 plate appearances. Then came his hard-to-watch injury, which occurred as he hustled to leg out a grounder and landed awkwardly on first base. That not only sapped Cozart’s arb earning power, but put a halt to his efforts to prove that he had really turned a corner at the plate. After being installed as Cincinnati’s regular shortstop in 2012, he managed only a .241/.280/.362 batting line over 1,761 trips to the plate in the next three years. He did show some pop, with 31 total home runs, but the bat looked marginal.

Thus far in 2016, Cozart has put both the injury and those past struggles in the rearview mirror. He has maintained and even improved upon his offensive production from last year, slashing .273/.316/.486 over the first 275 plate appearances of the season. Cozart is making hard contact (32.9%) and spraying line drives (23.4%) at career-best rates, and he’s continuing to bang long balls on about 13% of the flyballs he hits. He has actually been better on the road than at Great American Ballpark and isn’t benefiting from an inflated BABIP.

If you want to take the optimistic side, Cozart’s development looks somewhat similar to that of Brandon Crawford. As in the case of the Giants’ $75MM man, Cozart has never faced questions with the glove. In fact, Cozart has been among the most valuable defenders in all of baseball, delivering more or less equivalent value to Crawford. Just check out this UZR-based leaderboard from 2012-16 and whistle with surprise and admiration.

With solid baserunning mixed in, Cozart is and always has been a fairly high-floor player. That’s why he managed to play at about a two-WAR clip even when he was sagging on offense. Mix in an average or better bat, though, and you’re suddenly looking at a guy who has already compiled two wins in just 67 games. With the cheap salary and bonus year added in, that’s a pretty appealing trade piece.

There’s little question that the Reds front office believed Cozart would ultimately deliver this kind of productivity; he has been an everyday player since 2012. But Cincinnati may not be well-positioned to enjoy the fruits of its patience. The club isn’t expected to contend before Cozart hits free agency after the 2017 season, and an extension doesn’t seem particularly wise given his age and the team’s ongoing efforts to trim obligations and manage some long-term contracts that haven’t panned out. Plus, the organization has a pair of intriguing young infielders at the major league level — Eugenio Suarez and Jose Peraza — who could step in at short.

All sounds good so far … but truth be told, there isn’t a really evident match on paper. There are a few contenders whose shortstops have scuffled thus far, to be sure. And some other clubs have needs around the infield that could conceivably be met by adding Cozart. But it’s tough to find any specific team that is likely to feel extremely motivated to add a new face at short.

Let’s take a closer look:

Royals: K.C. just hasn’t received much of anything from Alcides Escobar, who has followed up on a poor offensive 2015 with an even worse start to the current campaign (56 wRC+) while drawing negative defensive metrics. Meanwhile, holes opened at both second and third; while they’ve been plugged admirably by Whit Merrifield and Cheslor Cuthbert, it’s not clear that either will be up to the task of regular duty for the long haul. It’s possible to imagine Cozart being utilized in any number of ways by the resourceful Royals.

Mariners: Seattle hoped that Ketel Marte would be ready for a regular role this year, but he’s struggled to a .278/.305/.363 batting line and hasn’t drawn rave reviews from defensive metrics with the glove. The team traded away a one-time option, Chris Taylor, and hasn’t received much at all from reserves Shawn O’Malley and Luis Sardinas. Installing Cozart could allow the M’s to turn Marte into a super-utility player who could see time all over the infield and outfield.

White Sox: Highly-regarded prospect Tim Anderson has been a league-average hitter over his first 74 plate appearances, but there are some red flags mixed in. He has yet to draw a walk, is striking out in about a third of his plate appearances, and is benefiting from a .370 BABIP. Ultimately, his current productivity is dependent upon a .219 ISO that would dwarf anything he has done in the minors. While Chicago may not want to burn resources and may be glad to roll the dice on Anderson’s talent, the fear of regression is real. It’s worth noting, too, that second baseman Brett Lawrie has cooled off considerably since his hot start.

Mets: Yes, the club just added Jose Reyes to provide an option with David Wright possibly down for the count in 2016. But that move didn’t come with any financial risk. And Reyes looked like a shell of his former self last year before sitting out the first half of this season. Then, there’s the fact that Asdrubal Cabrera has never had good range at shortstop. Adding Cozart up the middle while bumping Cabrera to third could represent a huge defensive upgrade.

Giants: San Francisco is set at short with the aforementioned Crawford and has quality young options at second (Joe Panik) and third (Matt Duffy). But Duffy is currently out and the organization is rumored to have looked at Yunel Escobar. Cozart would represent a similar addition in terms of his cost now and in 2017, and he’s probably the better player at this point. Of course, adding an infielder never seemed like the most pressing need in the first place.

Astros: Hear me out! Most agree that Carlos Correa is not a great defensive shortstop; moving him to third has long been discussed as a possibility. Adding Cozart and bumping Correa to third would essentially be another way of addressing the team’s questions at the hot corner. Top prospect Alex Bregman is streaking toward the majors, of course, but the team might not want to rush up the 2015 draftee or rely on him too heavily right out of the gates. I’ll admit it’s a long-shot, but it could be an interesting fit.

Marlins: We’ve long heard how enamored Miami is of Adeiny Hechavarria, and he’s highly valued for his glove, but he’s one of the team’s few regulars that isn’t hitting for the club. Cozart would also make a great platoon mate for Derek Dietrich at second, and could spell Martin Prado at third. With Dee Gordon’s return nearing, though, Cozart would likely only make sense if the club decides it’s time to replace Hech. Pitching seems a much higher priority for the Fish.

Tigers: This situation looks much like that of the Marlins. Jose Iglesias remains a fantastic fielder, but he’s now hitting .255/.314/.332 on the year. Plus, Nick Castellanos is a marginal defender at third and is carrying a sub-.700 OPS in June. Cozart could bump Castellanos to the outfield while J.D. Martinez is out and then be utilized in a variety of ways — including, conceivably, as the regular shortstop — down the stretch.

Orioles: Cozart doesn’t look all that dissimilar from a younger version of J.J. Hardy, who is now nearing 34 years of age. Hardy’s always-questionable on-base abilities have faded yet further in the last two years, and he last hit double-digit home runs in 2013. It’s not entirely inconceivable that Baltimore could seek his replacement in Cozart, though the elder player remains a top-quality defender. That scenario would begin to look more plausible if Hardy suffers another injury or can’t pick up the pace he has set since returning on June 18th (.257/.257/.314).

Others: We’re really starting to wade into implausible territory the further we get down the list here, but there are some other teams who could match if you squint. The Red Sox have 99 problems and shortstop ain’t one, but adding Cozart to the mix would open up some platoon opportunities at first and third, give the team a highly-capable fill-in at the middle infield, and/or open up the possibility of utilizing Travis Shaw in left. And the Rays could conceivably send Cinci a useful arm in order to improve its shortstop situation at a reasonable price — with an eye on 2017. You could make a case that the Indians could improve upon Juan Uribe, who isn’t hitting much but still defends like a champ. But even then, they’d probably be better suited adding an outfielder and deploying Jose Ramirez at the hot corner. The Dodgers always seem to find a way to add another infielder, though admittedly it’s difficult to see in this case; the Yankees would probably prefer to have better production from second and third, though that’s a tough fit.

In the aggregate, the demand side of the equation isn’t terribly robust. The real question, perhaps, is whether one or more contender will come up with a really significant need between now and the deadline. In the event of an injury or steep performance decline from one or more shortstops, the Reds could be left holding a critical piece of the trade deadline puzzle.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Knocking Down The Door: Bell, Berrios, Hedges, Judge, Stewart

By Jason Martinez | June 27, 2016 at 3:49pm CDT

This week’s installment of “Knocking Down The Door” includes five homegrown players—two first-round picks, two second-round picks and one sixth-round pick—who are close to reaching the majors with the team that drafted and signed them to professional contracts.

Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates (Triple-A Indianapolis): Chad Kuhl’s solid MLB debut on Sunday should ease the calls for top pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow (13 IP, 0 R, 0 H over last two starts) to join the big league rotation, at least for this week. I’m not sure John Jaso’s doing enough (.619 OPS since May 29th) to hold off Bell much longer, though.

The 23-year-old first baseman has been a hitting machine during his ascent through the minors, and 2016 has been no different. Well, there has been one difference. He’s finally starting to show off some in-game home run power (11 HR in 74 games in 2016; 30 HR in 373 games from 2012-15) to go along with the high average (.321) and on-base percentage (.405), which should get the attention of a Pirates front office that isn’t known for quickly moving prospects up the ladder.

With a .356/.422/.644 slash line in June, the switch-hitting Bell has done more than enough to earn a spot with the Pirates and push Jaso into a bench role.

Pirates Depth Chart

Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins (Triple-A Rochester): It wasn’t a big surprise that Berrios earned an early promotion to the Majors in 2016. He dominated in Triple-A last season (2.85 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 9. K/9 in 12 starts) and is considered to be one of the best pitching prospects in the game. It also shouldn’t have been a surprise, however, that a 21-year-old struggled in the big leagues and was sent to Triple-A after four starts.

Now a 22-year-old with two more months of Triple-A experience under his belt, Berrios is making a strong case to rejoin the Twins’ rotation after tossing three-hit ball over eight shutout innings in his last start. It was the eighth time in 10 starts that he’s allowed two earned runs or less and seventh time he’s allowed three hits or less.

Left-hander Tommy Milone did not fare well in his return to the rotation last week, and Tyler Duffey was on the brink of a demotion before dominating the Yankees in his last start. I’m guessing we’ll see Berrios if either Milone or Duffey has a bad start this week.

Twins Depth Chart

Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres (Triple-A El Paso): It doesn’t matter if Hedges homers in 10 straight games — he’s actually halfway there right now — there isn’t a spot for him on the Major League roster until the Padres can trade Derek Norris, who has an .828 OPS in June and is under team control through 2018. Those numbers are attractive on the trade market.

Norris also has value to the Padres, but Hedges’ recent power surge (seven homers in nine games) is a reminder that they have a big league ready catcher down in Triple-A who many think can be an elite defender and is healthy after surgery in late April to repair a fractured hamate bone.

The Austin Hedges era should begin in San Diego very soon — no, last year’s big league stint when he sat on the bench and watched Norris play almost every day doesn’t count. It just won’t happen until the Derek Norris era ends.

Padres Depth Chart

Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre): If a hitter’s walk-to-strikeout ratio is an indicator of his readiness for the majors, then maybe Judge is getting very close.

After walking 16 times and striking out 56 times in April and May, the 24-year-old Judge must be unrecognizable at the plate with his June performance—he’s walked 17 times and struck out only 21 times. While some hitters sacrifice power with a more patient approach, Judge’s power has also increased (8 homers in June; 7 homers in April/May).

Right fielder Carlos Beltran has been the Yankees’ most productive hitter in June, but he’s also 39 years old and needs to start getting off his feet and into the designated hitter spot more often. That designated hitter spot is currently being occupied by 40-year-old Alex Rodriguez, who is not having a productive season. Add those two things up and Judge has a chance to be patrolling the Bronx outfield in the near future.

Yankees Depth Chart

Brock Stewart, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (Triple-A Oklahoma City): The Dodgers currently have an opening in their rotation and there is a chance that they go with a guy who started the season in High-A and hadn’t been considered much of a prospect.

Crazy, right? Not as crazy at how deserving the guy is. (Note: Apparently the Dodgers agree, as Stewart tweets that he has been called up.)

A 6th Round draft pick in 2014, Stewart had the misfortune of spending most of his first full pro season in the very hitter-friendly California League, where he posted a 5.43 ERA. He returned there to start 2016 and was rewarded/saved with a promotion after two good starts. The 24-year-old has not stopped dominating hitters since.

After cruising through Double-A with 1.12 ERA, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in nine starts, the right-hander has been brilliant in three Triple-A starts (2.89 ERA, 18.2 IP, 2 BB 27 K), including back-to-back 10-strikeout games. His next start could come in the majors on Wednesday.

Dodgers Depth Chart

“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | June 26, 2016 at 5:07pm CDT

Here’s a look back at the original analysis MLBTR offered over the past seven days:

In this week’s edition of his “Knocking Down the Door” series, which focuses on prospects making cases for big league promotions, Jason Martinez analyzed five players who could be in the majors soon.
Steve Adams examined the performances of six notable veterans who have vesting options at year’s end. CC Sabathia and Matt Holliday are among the names.
Mark Polishuk broke down which teams could have interest in 32-year-old Cuban free agent Yulieski Gurriel.
With the Aug. 1 deadline a week closer, Jeff Todd updated his list of the top 15 trade candidates.
Steve made cases for and against the Padres trading southpaw Drew Pomeranz this summer. The entire MLBTR writing staff then weighed in, and Steve polled our readers on the topic.
Finally, Jason looked at the five most important transactions of the week – all featuring household names.

MLBTR Roundtable: Trading Drew Pomeranz

By Steve Adams | June 24, 2016 at 11:04pm CDT

Drew Pomeranz has seen his name creep up in trade rumors over the past week, with various reports connecting him to the Marlins and the Orioles. As I recently did with Julio Teheran (see here and here) — another controllable pitcher that is drawing trade interest but needn’t necessarily be aggressively shopped by his team — I explored the cases for an against a Pomeranz trade yesterday. There’s no right or wrong answer to the debate, of course, and we at MLBTR apparently aren’t able to come to a consensus on the matter. Here’s the second edition of our MLBTR Roundtable series, in which I’ve asked everyone from our staff to weigh in on whether the Padres should hang onto Pomeranz or look to sell high on him this summer…

Tim Dierkes: The Padres should trade Drew Pomeranz this summer. Despite a 3.00 ERA at present, there are concerns. First, he’s walked 11.3% of batters faced this year. No qualified pitcher reached that level in 2015. Pomeranz has still been able to succeed because of a .254 batting average on balls in play, meaning hits aren’t dropping in. Assuming Pomeranz is not the next Chris Young, he can’t maintain that BABIP. Pomeranz’s current skill set will lead to high traffic on the bases and early hooks. Pomeranz is also a 27-year-old who has never reached 150 pro innings in his career and only reached 120 once, in 2012. He’ll be in uncharted waters in late August, and has two career DL stints for shoulder injuries. By trading Pomeranz now, the Padres have a chance to cash in an unreliable asset, however tantalizing this year’s strikeout rate may be. Verdict: Shop him.

Steve Adams: Pomeranz has been terrific this season, but he’s already approaching his innings total from the 2015 season and has never delivered a full season with a starter’s workload. I can’t say with any confidence that I expect him to throw even 170 innings this season, so I can certainly see the argument to sell high at this juncture. However, big league teams likely have similar concerns about his ability to hold up over the life of a full season, and as such he’s probably not going to command an otherworldly return. With such a weak crop of starters on the open market this winter, the Padres would be better off hanging onto Pomeranz and hoping his previous shoulder and biceps issues don’t resurface. Marketing him coming off a full season of strong innings would yield a significantly better return than trading him after 80-100 innings, and if the offers still aren’t great, there’s always next summer, when he’ll have one and a half years of control. I typically advocate for teams in the Padres’ shoes to be willing to part with virtually any player on the roster, but Pomeranz’s value is still rising. Selling too soon in this case is a larger risk to me than the risk of an arm injury or a rapid decline in performance. Verdict: Retain him.

Jeff Todd: I voted in favor of the Braves trading Julio Teheran, but I’m going to edge in the other direction here. It goes without saying that there’s a point at which the Pads should be willing to cut a deal, but I’m generally predisposed to holding here. That opinion is due in no small part to the fact that I expect other organizations to be conservative in valuing Pomeranz — both as a rental and as a long-term asset. ERA estimators take a more conservative view of his good work to date than his bottom-line results would suggest. Indeed, Pomeranz is delivering a mediocre walk rate while benefiting from some good fortune in the BABIP department. And it’s no secret that he lacks a track record as a quality and durable starter. Given that uncertainty, I’d like to see San Diego chase the upside here. While many have noted that Pomeranz relies heavily on his curve, which is true, he’s also increasingly using a change-up that gives him a new weapon against righties. Thus far, he has limited opposite-handed hitters to a .193/.277/.338 slash, which is significantly better than he has fared historically. If he can prove that he’s a mid-3 ERA starter and stay healthy for a full year, he’ll be a sparkling trade piece over the winter — when the rest of the league will be picking over a barren market of starters. (Or, if contention feels within reach, the Pads can hold onto him as a cheap, quality rotation piece of their own.) There’s risk, to be sure, but I think the chance at big-time surplus value is worth it. This just isn’t the same thing as holding onto a hurler who has already full established himself. Verdict: Retain him.

Mark Polishuk: The Padres’ big moves of the 2014-15 offseason have proven to be such a misfire that part of me feels that the club should just totally start over and trade everyone of value (Pomeranz included) for young talent. Overall, however, I’m in the “keep Pomeranz” camp. It wasn’t too long ago that he was considered a top prospect, and it’s probably no surprise that he’s gotten better and better the further he’s gotten from Coors Field (a.k.a. the worst possible place for a young pitcher to break into the majors). Pomeranz has turned into an unexpected find for San Diego, and he comes at a bargain price for now and with substantial team control….unless another team goes overboard with an offer, the Padres should stand pat with him. Verdict: Retain him.

Charlie Wilmoth: I’d certainly consider trading Pomeranz if I were in A.J. Preller’s shoes, but would ultimately lean toward keeping him. Pomeranz isn’t eligible for free agency until after 2018, so there’s no rush to trade him. And while his performance thus far this season has been a bit better than his peripherals suggest, it hasn’t been wildly out of line either, and he should continue to perform well, health permitting. Next year’s crop of free agent starting pitchers is poor, so as long as Pomeranz stays healthy, the Padres should have further chances to reevaluate their situation and deal him later. Keeping him for now would also allow the Padres to prepare for the impending departures of Andrew Cashner (who can depart this winter) and Tyson Ross (who can leave after 2017). One could make some similar arguments about Julio Teheran, who I recently suggested the Braves should strongly consider trading, partially on the grounds that it’s risky for non-contending teams to hold on to established pitchers, who are at perpetual risk of injury. But Pomeranz is not as well established as a starter as Teheran, and therefore not as likely to net a big return. All things considered, then, the Padres should probably keep him for now. Verdict: Retain him.

Connor Byrne: The Padres are bottom dwellers now and they’re highly unlikely to contend before Pomeranz is scheduled for free agency at the end of the 2018 season, so it seems like a no-brainer to shop him this summer. Taking Pomeranz’s cheap 2016 price tag, remaining team control, performance and the paucity of front-end starters expected to go on the block over the next month into account, the Padres should be able to cash him in for a quality return. Plenty of playoff contenders need starters, so an inexpensive 27-year-old who’s top 25 in the majors in K/9, ERA, FIP, xFIP and infield fly rate (and gets an average amount of ground balls) should appeal to multiple clubs with rotation issues. There are questions with Pomeranz – durability, control problems and the fact that he’s succeeding with a knuckle curve as his primary pitch spring to mind – but it’s hard to believe those would scare off every starter-needy team from making a solid offer. If they do, then the Padres could retain Pomeranz and hope he continues increasing his value. There’s no harm in putting Pomeranz on the market prior to Aug. 1, though, and if rebuilding San Diego ultimately nets a package that helps augment its farm system, it would be a major win for the franchise. After acquiring Pomeranz for a pittance over the winter, the fact that the Padres are now in position to auction him off for a potentially appealing return is a boon for A.J. Preller – whose GM tenure is desperately in need of some positive results. Verdict: Shop him.

—

With all of that said, let’s turn this one over to everyone else. Let the debate begin! (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

Should the Padres trade Drew Pomeranz this summer?

Yes! Sell high while he's healthy and throwing well. 72.74% (2,103 votes)

No way! Hold onto him. His value to the Padres and to other organizations will continue to grow. 27.26% (788 votes)

Total Votes: 2,891

The 5 Most Important Transactions Of The Week

By Jason Martinez | June 24, 2016 at 7:50pm CDT

MLB rosters are ever-changing, mostly due to the fragility of players—there are currently over 170 players on the disabled list. Baseball players also go through ups and downs and a coaching staff/front office must decide at which point to shake things up and make a change.

This keeps me very busy over at Roster Resource, where I spend my day moving roster pieces around as news is reported. This past week was no exception, although there were more big names than usual in the transactions. Here are the five most important moves from the past seven days …

1. Blue Jays RF Jose Bautista (Turf Toe) Placed On 15-Day DL

Despite a nagging quad injury, the 35-year-old Bautista was settling in nicely as Toronto’s leadoff man when he injured his toe on June 16th. The Jays were also playing their best baseball of the season, about to win for the 15th time in 22 games to push their record to 37-31.

Without their superstar right fielder, who was placed on the disabled the list the following day and expected to be in a walking boot for two weeks, the Jays have now lost 3 of 5. Bautista’s replacement in the starting lineup is veteran journeyman Ezequiel Carrera, who is having a terrific season (.827 OPS in 114 plate appearances), but only 3-for-14 with a homer in his absence.

While he’s earned the opportunity with his performance as a part-time player this season, the 29-year-old Carrera would likely have a short leash if Dalton Pompey was having a more eye-popping season down in Triple-A.

Although Pompey does have a .280 batting average and .351 on-base percentage, the former top prospect has shown very little power and doesn’t appear to be an upgrade at this moment. But if Carrera and the Jays are struggling 7-10 days from now and Pompey has heated up, this scenario could change.

2. Tigers RF J.D. Martinez (Non-Displaced Elbow Fracture) Placed On 15-Day DL

Like fellow slugger Bautista, Martinez suffered his injury while playing in the outfield last Thursday. The 2015 All-Star, who was on a similar pace to last season (.879 OPS, 38 HR in 158 games ’15; .878 OPS, 12 HR in 65 games in ’16), is expected to miss at least 4-6 weeks and possibly much more. And yet, the Tigers’ lineup hasn’t missed a beat.

Not only did Justin Upton pick a good time to finally get going at the plate—8-for-27 with four homers since Martinez’s injury—Steven Moya has 9 hits in 24 at-bats, including three homers and two doubles, since replacing Martinez on the 25-man roster and in the starting lineup.

The 24-year-old rookie has huge power potential, but has been strikeout prone throughout his minor league career. So maybe this is a case of small sample size success before teams figure out the best way to attack the young hitter. Until then, he’s giving the Tigers some much-needed lefty power to help balance out a right-handed heavy lineup.

3. Dodgers OF Yasiel Puig Activated From Disabled List

Puig is having a terrible season. On the day he was placed on the disabled list in early June, he had a .643 OPS with nine walks, 43 strikeouts and only 11 extra-base hits. Trayce Thompson, who had already worked his way into the outfield mix, had an .872 OPS with eight homers at the time. No Puig. No problem.

Fast forward almost three weeks and the Dodgers have a slight dilemma. Puig is ready to return. Howie Kendrick is getting most of his at-bats in left field and, coincidentally, hit over .300 during Puig’s absence. Thompson wasn’t bad, but his production had fallen with Puig on the disabled list (.740 OPS).

So who sits? The answer is “not the guy who became a star after posting an .888 OPS in his first two big league seasons.” Since returning from the disabled list on Tuesday, the 25-year-old Puig has started both games in right field and collected three singled in seven at-bats, while Thompson and Kendrick have each started one game in left field.

Of course, Kendrick’s versatility makes this much less complicated—he’s made starts at first base, second base, third base and left field—as does Thompson’s ability to play all three outfield spots. There are plenty of at-bats for all three, at least until Andre Ethier returns later in the season. But if Puig reverts to his poor pre-injury form, the Dodgers could have a “starting right field controversy” on their hands.

4. Angels SP Tim Lincecum Recalled From Triple-A

It’s probably a case of “too little, too late” for the Angels, who haven’t had much of a chance to compete since losing staff ace Garrett Richards and Andrew Heaney to elbow injuries. But the signing and subsequent call-up of former Giants ace Lincecum was supposed to give the team a shot in the arm.

But between the time Lincecum agreed to the deal on May 20th and the day of his call-up on June 18th, the Angels went from 19-23 and 5.5 games out in the AL West to 29-38 and 13.5 games out.

The 32-year-old Lincecum is now likely auditioning for those playoff contenders looking to bolster their starting rotation next month. The results are mixed, thus far, with a solid debut against Oakland (6 IP, ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K) and a clunker against the same A’s team yesterday (3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K).

5. Blue Jays SS Troy Tulowitzki Activated From 15-Day Disabled List

When Tulowitzki was placed on the disabled list in late May, he was hitting just over the Mendoza Line and the Blue Jays were a .500 ball club. When he returned three weeks later on June 18th, they were eight games over .500 and Darwin Barney was headed back to the bench after an impressive stint as Tulo’s replacement (.309/.356/.397 in 73 plate appearances).

Not that there was any question whether the 31-year-old Tulowitzki should be playing over the light-hitting Barney. We learned, however, that the Jays are still a good team without him. If he can ever return to his pre-trade form when he starred with the Rockies—he has a career OPS of .809 outside of Coors Field so this is unlikely to be the cause of his mediocre numbers—the Jays can be a great team.

So far, so good. In four games since returning, Tulowitzki is 5-for-14 with a double and two homers. If he’s hitting like this when Bautista returns, likely sometime next month, this Jays offense will be as scary as we all thought it would be.

The Cases For And Against A Drew Pomeranz Trade

By Steve Adams | June 23, 2016 at 4:05pm CDT

The Padres’ two-year push to contend in the National League West hasn’t panned out as the new ownership and front office groups had hoped, and the Friars have already begun to sell off pieces (James Shields) with plenty of rumors swirling around virtually every other player on the roster. While Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner were thought to be the team’s top two trade chips in the rotation heading into the season, though, it’s been left-hander Drew Pomeranz that has had generated the most trade buzz as of late. The former No. 5 overall pick is in the midst of a breakout season, having pitched to a 3.00 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate. His 3.44 FIP and 3.64 xFIP are both within the Top 25 among all MLB starters, and SIERA rates him 31st — just ahead of Zack Greinke and just behind the likes of Masahiro Tanaka, Kenta Maeda and Taijuan Walker.

Suffice it to say, Pomeranz has been one of the better starters in all of baseball this season, and as such the Padres should be able to fetch a much stronger return than the package they parted with to acquire him (Yonder Alonso, Marc Rzepczynski). Still, it’s not entirely clear that the Padres should be open to moving him at all. Let’s look at the issue from both angles.

The Case For Trading Drew Pomeranz

Simply put, the Padres aren’t a good team in 2016. Moreover, they don’t have an especially strong farm system. The Padres added some talent to their ranks with last season’s Craig Kimbrel trade, and they had one of the largest pools in this year’s amateur draft as well. Beyond that, they’re rumored to be gearing up for a hyper-aggressive run on the international prospect scene when the 2016-17 signing period kicks off on July 2. General manager A.J. Preller and his staff are in talent acquisition mode, and marketing Pomeranz — a former top draft pick and top prospect with two years of team control beyond 2016 — could further bolster their minor league system.

Pomeranz, after all, is earning just $1.35MM after his first trip through the arbitration process due to the fact that his pre-arb seasons consisted of struggles with the Rockies at Coors Field and success in a limited role in Oakland, where he served as a swingman. That price means that any team can afford to add him to its books, and it also figures to suppress his earning power for his second and third trips through the arbitration process. Pomeranz’s pedigree, low salary and remaining control should all make him appealing to clubs in search of pitching, and we’ve already seen the Orioles and Marlins linked to him this week alone.

Advocates of a Pomeranz trade for the Padres could consider this to be selling high. He’s already nearly matched his innings total from 2015, he’s spent time on the disabled list in the past with shoulder and biceps problems, and as the team has learned with Ross this season, waiting to move a pitcher with injury concerns can have a disastrous outcome. Ross has still only pitched in one game with the Padres this season. A healthy Ross would be among the most in-demand chips on the summer market, but the Padres would be selling him for pennies on the dollar right now. Cashing in while Pomeranz is healthy and performing well has its merits, to be sure.

The Case Against Trading Drew Pomeranz

Those same concerns surrounding Pomeranz’s injuries and workload could limit other teams’ willingness to part with top-tier talent to acquire him, however. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune recently spoke to a few scouts about Pomeranz and one NL scout suggested that the lefty would fetch a “limited return” due to skepticism surrounding his lack of a track record. While that’s just one scout’s opinion, of course, it speaks to the fact that there are those in the game that aren’t necessarily sold on Pomeranz as a concrete option to fortify the top half of a rotation.

The fact that he’s controllable through 2018, too, means that the Padres don’t need to be in a rush to trade him. Even if Pomeranz gets hurt in August, he’d have plenty of time to reestablish value in the first half of the 2017 season. And, if he’s able to remain healthy and productive, his value will only grow. There’s a complete dearth of quality arms available in free agency this winter, and it’s certainly not a stretch to say that the Padres could get a greater return if they’re marketing a full season of strong work from Pomeranz in a barren pitching market than they could by marketing half a season of strong innings. Trading him next summer could create even greater value if Pomeranz can sustain his breakout pace, as he’d still come with one and a half years of control at a reasonable salary.

Additionally, the Padres simply need quality arms for the foreseeable future in their rotation. San Diego isn’t teeming with quality rotation options. Ross is a question mark at this point, and lefty Robbie Erlin was lost to Tommy John surgery earlier this year, making him an unknown in 2017 as well. Cashner is a free agent in three months’ time and may or may not return. Beyond Pomeranz and Ross, the Padres’ rotation options in 2017 include Colin Rea, Erik Johnson, Christian Friedrich, Cesar Vargas, Rule 5 pick Luis Perdomo and perhaps Brandon Maurer if San Diego again wants to experiment with him as a starter. There are some additional options at Triple-A (e.g. Michael Kelly, Bryan Rodriguez), as shown on the Padres’ depth chart, but all of the starters ranked among the Padres’ Top 30 prospects at MLB.com come with an ETA of at least 2018 — and many aren’t projected to factor into the Majors until 2019.

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