Jack Flaherty’s Strong Start To A Hopeful Rebound Year
Jack Flaherty was one of the more interesting mid-level starting pitchers in last year’s free agent class. The righty was arguably the best pitcher in MLB in the second half of 2019, but he didn’t cement himself as an ace in the following few seasons. He struggled in nine starts during the shortened season. Oblique and shoulder injuries cost him good chunks of the 2021 and ’22 campaigns, respectively. Flaherty stayed healthy for his walk year but allowed nearly five earned runs per nine between the Cardinals and Orioles.
That left both his camp and interested teams with questions once he hit the market. Was Flaherty still an upside play who had a realistic chance to turn in top-of-the-rotation results? If he felt that way, would he be best served taking a one-year deal and retesting the market next year? At 28, Flaherty was one of the youngest free agents of note. He ultimately chose the one-year route, signing a $14MM guarantee with the Tigers that contained another $1MM in performance bonuses.
It’s far too early to definitively declare the move a success, but his first month in Detroit has gone better than expected. Flaherty’s even 4.00 earned run average through 36 innings isn’t especially noteworthy. Yet he leads the American League with 50 strikeouts and has only issued five walks. His 16.4% swinging strike percentage would easily be a career high. It’s nearly six points up from last season.
Among pitchers with 30+ innings, only Freddy Peralta has a higher strikeout rate than Flaherty’s 34%. Jared Jones is the only pitcher getting more whiffs on a per-pitch basis. Flaherty is coming off a career-high 14 strikeouts in Tuesday’s matchup against his old teammates with St. Louis.
There’s only so much a player can prove in a six-game sample, but Flaherty hasn’t missed bats at anything close to this level in five years. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder, we see that Flaherty hadn’t recorded more than 40 strikeouts in a six-game stretch at any point since his dazzling finish in 2019. While the ERA hasn’t caught up, Flaherty is dominating the strike zone in a way that he hasn’t for some time.
Flaherty’s stuff has ticked up slightly in the early going. His fastball is averaging 93.8 MPH, around half a mile per hour above where it sat in the previous two seasons. Perhaps more impactful has been the increased effectiveness of his breaking stuff. Flaherty’s best pitch, his slider, is missing bats at a high level after it waned in 2022-23. Opponents have come up empty half the time they’ve offered at his curveball. Flaherty is attacking hitters, particularly left-handers, with the breaking pitches a little more frequently than he has in previous seasons.
There’s a long way to go before he puts the questions about his 2021-23 performance behind him completely. As the season progresses, he’ll face tougher opposition than he has gotten thus far. Of his six starts, four have come against teams (the White Sox, A’s, Rays and Cardinals) that have been subpar offensively. Only his two starts against the Twins have been against a club with an above-average team batting line. While Minnesota has been solid overall, they’re a high-strikeout offense.
Yet if Flaherty stays healthy and continues to overpower opponents at anything close to this level, he’ll be in line for a much more lucrative free agent trip. He’ll play all of next season at 29, which is still atypically young for a free agent starter. He’d be a clear qualifying offer candidate (assuming the Tigers stay in the postseason mix and don’t trade him at the deadline), but he shouldn’t have much issue turning that down and landing a better multi-year pact.
Next winter’s class has a lot of high-variance but intriguing starters who could dramatically improve their stock in the next five months (i.e. Luis Severino, Walker Buehler, Frankie Montas, Blake Snell). Flaherty has a legitimate path to the top of that group, which could make him the #3 pitcher available behind Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Who Could The Angels Trade This Summer?
The Angels came into 2024 hoping to compete, despite losing Shohei Ohtani to free agency, but it’s not going well so far. It’s usually unwise to pour dirt on a club’s grave so early in the season, but the odds were against them even before the 2024 campaign started. They have piled up a few losses while Mike Trout is once again facing a significant absence, narrowing whatever contention window they had.
The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs gave them a 16.9% chance of making the playoffs prior to any games being played. Now that the club is 11-20 and Trout is set to miss weeks due to surgery to repair a torn meniscus, those odds have slimmed. As of this morning, their chances of cracking the postseason are down to 2.6%. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even more pessimistic, giving the Halos just a 0.3% shot.
Barring a miracle in the next few months, they are going to be deadline sellers in the months to come. There could be some speculation about Trout being available, but that’s a complicated situation. He has full no-trade protection and has said he wants to stay in Anaheim. Even if he changes his mind and wants out, facilitating a deal won’t be easy. Despite his immense talents, he actually has negative trade value right now. He is about to turn 33 years old, is making $35.45MM annually through 2030 and has frequently been injured in recent years.
The Angels would be in a tough spot, as they would likely want some notable prospect return in trading a face-of-the-franchise player like Trout, but they would have to swallow a significant portion of the deal to make that happen. On top of that, Trout’s no-trade clause means they would have to factor in his preferences, perhaps narrowing their options and reducing their leverage. Given how convoluted the factors are, a Trout trade isn’t likely to come together hastily, especially since he’s currently hurt.
On top of Trout, there are others who aren’t likely to be moved. Anthony Rendon has a massive salary and hasn’t been healthy in years. Robert Stephenson recently underwent Tommy John surgery and is out until the middle of next year, at least. Players like Logan O’Hoppe, Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel are still in their pre-arbitration years, giving the club little reason to move them.
But that still leaves them with quite a few options that could hold appeal around the league:
Rengifo is currently hitting .326/.376/.465 this year for a 142 wRC+. That’s at least partly a mirage because he won’t be able to sustain a .377 batting average on balls in play all season. But even with a bit of regression, he’d be on track for his third straight year of above-average offense. He hit a combined .264/.315/.436 over 2022 and 2023, with a 103 wRC+ in the first of those two seasons and a 114 wRC+ last year.
Defensively, Rengifo can play all over the diamond. He has spent time at the three infield positions to the left of first base, as well as all three outfield slots. He’s not considered especially strong at any one spot, but the ability to move around will help him fit in with other clubs. The fact that he’s a switch-hitter gives him extra versatility.
Financially, Rengifo is making just $4.4MM this year and can be controlled via arbitration for next year as well. Even if a club has financial concerns due to the competitive balance tax or lack of TV revenue, he won’t break the bank.
Estévez is out to a rough start this year with a 6.23 ERA, but the numbers are good just about everywhere else. He is striking out 29.4% of batters faced on the year and hasn’t yet issued a walk. The runs are scoring at least partially due to a tiny strand rate of 48.4%. His 3.83 FIP and 2.70 SIERA point to him being the same lockdown reliever he has been in previous years.
The righty has a 4.51 career ERA but spent his entire career in Colorado until last year. He secured a two-year, $13.5MM deal with the Angels going into 2023. His first season in Anaheim saw him rack up 31 saves while punching out 27.8% of opponents, though walking 11% of them. He should be one of the better rental relievers available this summer. He’s making a salary of $6.75MM this year.
Anderson’s up-and-down career is in a bit of an upswing right now, at least in terms of results. Through six starts this year, he has a 2.23 earned run average. But with a .194 BABIP and 90.9% strand rate, he likely won’t be able to keep that up. His 4.76 FIP and 4.80 SIERA suggest regression is coming, as his 18.5% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate are both subpar.
The lefty secured a three-year, $39MM deal with the Halos going into 2023. He had a 4.62 ERA through 2021 but then posted a 2.57 ERA with the Dodgers in 2022. That led to his deal with the Angels, but he regressed immediately with a 5.43 ERA last year. Though his results will likely dip a bit as the year goes on, pitching is always in demand at the deadline and the Angels could be able to eat some of his salary to get a deal done. His contract pays him $13MM annually and runs through the end of 2025.
Health has been the big question mark for Canning, but he showed positive development in that department last year. He missed the 2022 season entirely but then appeared in 24 games in 2023 — 22 of them starts — while logging 127 innings. All of those figures were career-highs. Beyond the quantity, the quality was also encouraging. He had a 4.32 ERA on the year with a 25.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate.
Unfortunately, things have backed up in 2024. Through six starts, he has struck out just 15.9% of opponents while walking 9.1%, leading to a 7.45 ERA. A 56.1% strand rate isn’t helping him, but even his 5.48 FIP and 4.96 SIERA aren’t amazing. He’ll have to get things back on track in the months to come but would have some appeal if he did. Because of the missed injury time, he’s making a modest $2.6MM salary this year and has one more arbitration season remaining in 2025.
Sandoval’s ERA is up at 5.91 this year, but the numbers under the hood are more encouraging. His 10.8% walk rate is a bit high, but he’s striking out 25.7% of batters faced and getting grounders on 47.3% of balls in play. Were it not for a .396 BABIP and 57.5% strand rate, he’d be in better shape, which is why he has a 3.17 FIP and 3.83 SIERA.
He’s a bit less of an obvious trade candidate since he’s controlled through 2026. He’s making $5.025MM this year and will have two more arb seasons before he’s slated for free agency. The Halos could hold him if they think they can compete again in that window, but his trade value will only decline going forward as his control window shrinks and his salary keeps rising.
Ward is in the same service bucket as Sandoval, meaning he has two years of control beyond this one. He’s had a bit of a stop-and-go career due to injuries but is often in good form when healthy. He already has seven home runs this year and is slashing .278/.313/.492 with a 126 wRC+. Going back to the start of 2021, he’s hit .267/.343/.453 for a 122 wRC+.
Similar to Sandoval, the Halos don’t have to move Ward, but there’s an argument for it. He’s making $4.8MM this year and will be in line for a healthy raise if he keeps hitting homers. Since his health has been so mercurial, they might be tempted to strike while the iron is hot, cashing him in for younger players if he stays healthy through July.
Moore is continuing to enjoy a nice second act to his career after moving from the rotation to the bullpen. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 125 appearances with a 2.35 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 40% ground ball rate.
His strikeout rate has dipped to 21.3% this year, but in a small sample of 12 appearances. His 3.97 ERA is more passable than it is exciting and he’s making $9MM on the year. But every contender is looking for bullpen upgrades at the deadline and Moore will have suitors, especially since he’s left-handed.
Drury parlayed a 28-homer breakout in 2022 into a two-year, $17MM deal to suit up for the team he grew up cheering for. The first season went well, as he launched another 26 home runs last year while bouncing between multiple positions, but he’s out to a dreadful start here in 2024. He has battled some hamstring tightness and migraines while hitting just .176/.245/.235.
Those nagging injuries are surely playing a part in his struggles, as is a .209 BABIP. He could be due for a turnaround if his health and batted-ball fortune both improve. If that comes to pass, he could fit on multiple clubs around the league. He has played all four infield positions and the outfield corners in his career, so various teams could find a way to squeeze him in.
Somewhat similar to Estévez, García is allowing more runs than he seemingly deserves. He has struck out 28.3% of opponents this year while walking just 5.7% and keeping 54.3% of balls in play on the ground, leading to a 2.52 FIP and 2.38 SIERA. But a strand rate of just 39.7% has helped push some runners across the plate, leading to a 5.54 ERA.
He’s a 37-year-old veteran and won’t fetch a huge return, but each contender needs bullpen help. He’s making just $4.25MM on a one-year deal and has a decent track record. Since the start of 2021, he has a 3.77 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 55% ground ball rate.
Cimber had a pretty solid run in 2021 and 2022, pitching over 70 innings in each of those seasons with a combined ERA of 2.53. He only struck out 18.8% of batters faced in that time, but he only walked 5% of them while his submarine delivery helped him produce a 47.9% ground ball rate and lots of weak contact.
He was hurt for a lot of 2023 and his ERA shot up to 7.40 when he was on the mound. The Angels took a shot on a bounceback which has mostly gone well so far, as Cimber has a 3.14 ERA this year. His 11.1% walk rate is uncharacteristically high, as he’s never finished a season above 7.8% in that department. If he can shake off the rust and rein in his control, perhaps he’ll be back in 2021-22 form in the months to come. He’s making just $1.65MM this year and could fit in the budget of any club.
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The Angels could also push further, depending on what their long-term plans are. Reid Detmers and Jo Adell haven’t yet reached arbitration yet, but they will this coming winter. Adell has struggled so much over the years but is in good form so far this year, which may tempt the Angels to listen to offers on him now in case he turns into a pumpkin. He’s slashing .290/.338/.565 for a 152 wRC+, with his 26.5% strikeout rate a big improvement compared to previous years.
Parting with Detmers could be painful since he seems to be breaking out this year. He has a 3.12 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 44% ground ball rate. With three more years of control beyond this one, there’s no rush to move him. But if the club is planning a significant rebuild, those years might be wasted in Anaheim. If they decide to pull the trigger, he would fetch a haul.
The Twins’ Quietly Elite Catcher
For years in Minnesota, the catching position was the strongest on the roster. Hometown kid and former No. 1 overall pick Joe Mauer went from ballyhooed prospect to three-time batting champion and 2009 American League MVP. He solidified the spot for a decade, hitting .323/.405/.469 in more than 5000 plate appearances from 2004-13.
When concussions forced Mauer over to first base, the Twins turned things over to a series of veterans as they struggled to develop an in-house replacement. Kurt Suzuki and Jason Castro both inked multi-year deals to serve as the starting catcher in Minnesota. Those contracts actually panned out reasonably well; Suzuki hit .263/.316/.364 in three seasons and made the 2014 All-Star team. Castro hit .229/.325/.390 in his three seasons and provided elite defense. Along the way, the Twins succeeded in developing one high-end offensive catcher — Mitch Garver — but struggled to keep him healthy. Garver was eventually traded to the Rangers for Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronny Henriquez. Kiner-Falefa was then immediately flipped to the Yankees alongside Josh Donaldson in a swap that netted the Twins Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela (while shedding the remainder of Donaldson’s $92MM contract).
Somewhat lost in the shuffle during that catching carousel was 2018 second-rounder Ryan Jeffers. The UNC-Wilmington product had a nice debut showing in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, slashing .273/.355/.436 in a small sample of 62 plate appearances. Jeffers, however, fanned in more than 30% of his plate appearances that year and experienced even more pronounced contact issues in the two subsequent seasons.
From 2021-22, he hit just .203/.277/.384 with a 32.4% strikeout rate. The power was apparent (21 homers, .182 ISO in 529 plate appearances), but Jeffers’ contact issues rendered him a well below-average hitter. The Twins, in win-now mode after a strong 2022 campaign, signed veteran Christian Vazquez to a three-year, $30MM deal that generally aligned with market expectations.
Heading into the 2023 season, Jeffers wasn’t relegated to a traditional backup role, but there was a clear expectation that he and Vazquez would be in a timeshare behind the plate — likely with the defensively superior Vazquez handling a bit more of the workload. Through the season’s first few months, that’s precisely how things played out, too. Vazquez received 202 first-half plate appearances to Jeffers’ 157. Vazquez provided his typical brand of elite defense but hit just .210/.287/.265 in that time. Jeffers, on the other hand, hit .256/.357/.421 — numbers more in line with his intriguing rookie showing from 2020.
Following the All-Star break, the balance of playing time tilted in the other direction. It was Jeffers who found his name called more often, picking up 178 plate appearances to Vazquez’s 153. While Vazquez improved a bit offensively in the season’s second half, Jeffers saw his production soar to heights not seen by a Minnesota catcher in years. In the final two-plus months of the season, the 26-year-old mashed at a .294/.379/.549 clip and belted 10 homers. By measure of wRC+, that was 54% better than the league-average hitter. And considering catchers tend to be about 12% worse than the average hitter, Jeffers’ breakout was all the more eye-catching.
It didn’t appear to be simple small-sample noise, either. Jeffers made notable gains in his contact ability, fanning at a reduced (but still higher-than-average) 26.4% clip post-break last season. That includes a strikeout rate of just 17.1% in the season’s final month. While he didn’t suddenly reduce his chase rate on pitches off the plate, Jeffers took a noticeably more aggressive approach overall and seemed to benefit from it. His 50.3% overall swing rate in September was markedly higher than the 43.7% of pitches at which he’d offered in the five months prior. He’d previously made contact on 57.5% of his chases off the plate and 82.2% of his swings within the strike zone; those jumped to 71.4% and 87.8%, respectively, in the final month of play.
We’re now five weeks into the 2024 season, and Jeffers has picked up right where he left off last September. He’s hitting .300/.393/.556 on the season and has already popped five homers in his 107 plate appearances. His 16.8% strikeout rate is an easy career-low. The more aggressive approach he showed late last year remains in place, as he’s swinging at a 47.4% clip with better contact off the plate and within the zone that he’d shown prior to last September.
Jeffers has made himself veritably indispensable in the Twins’ lineup. He’s appeared in 27 of their 30 games: 14 at catcher and 11 at designated hitter. Manager Rocco Baldelli has begun to bat Jeffers in the top-third of his lineup with regularity. Seventy percent of his plate appearances have come while batting first, second or third this year. Jeffers has long pounded left-handed pitching (career .267/.362/.487), but he’s now hitting .285/.368/.489 against righties dating back to Opening Day 2023 — a wild improvement over the .185/.256/.361 slash he posted versus righties from 2020-22.
And, for all the talk about Vazquez’s defense earlier, it should be noted that Jeffers is hardly a slouch himself in that regard. Statcast was down on his ability to block balls in the dirt last season (five blocks below average), but Jeffers has routinely drawn positive overall grades from Defensive Runs Saved. He’s been better than average in that regard in each other season of his big league career, however, and Jeffers has been an average or better pitch framer in his career as a whole, per both FanGraphs and Statcast. He has a slightly below-average caught-stealing rate in his career, but much of that stems from an ugly 13% caught-stealing rate as a rookie. Jeffers nabbed 25% of thieves in 2023 (league-average was 21%) and is 1-for-5 in 2024 (23% is league-average).
Since last season, there are 75 big league catchers who’ve tallied at least 100 plate appearances. Jeffers’ 146 wRC+ leads the pack by a massive margin; the Contreras brothers check in at 133 (William Contreras) and 132 (Willson Contreras) and stand as the No. 2 and 3 entrants on that list. Yes, it’s still only a sample of 442 plate appearances for Jeffers, but he’s been far and away the best-hitting catcher in the majors going back to last year, quietly topping stars like Will Smith, Adley Rutschman, Sean Murphy and the Contreras brothers on a per-plate-appearance basis. Granted, Jeffers isn’t going to top WAR leaderboards because of his more even timeshare with Vazquez and lesser defensive skills to names like Murphy, Rutschman, Patrick Bailey and others — but he’s nevertheless stepped out as one the game’s premier hitters at his position.
Perhaps the Vazquez addition took some pressure off Jeffers, but the breakout at the plate and the Twins’ efforts to scale back payroll this past offseason do combine to make that signing look superfluous. Vazquez is a flat-out elite defender, but he’s hitting .222/.273/.309 in 421 plate appearances as a Twin. For a team that was up against some pretty noticeable payroll constraints from ownership in the offseason, that $10MM-per-year salary could certainly be allocated in a more efficient way.
That’s not to disparage Vazquez; had Twins ownership merely allowed the front office to maintain last year’s roughly $155MM payroll, his salary wouldn’t even be all that cumbersome to manage — and there’s surely intangible benefit to him working with Jeffers and with the team’s pitching staff. Still, the Twins spent relatively heavily to install a starting-caliber option behind the dish, only to see one of their young, in-house options emerge as the cornerstone backstop they’d been seeking all along.
Jeffers remains highly affordable for the Twins, earning just $2.425MM this season in his first trip through arbitration. He’s well on his way to earning a major raise on top of that salary if he can continue to hit as he has going back to Opening Day 2023. He’ll be arb-eligible twice more and is controllable through the 2026 season. As a Boras Corporation client, Jeffers doesn’t stand out as the likeliest candidate to sign a long-term deal, but it’s hard to imagine the Twins wouldn’t be interested in hammering out some kind of deal to keep him in Minneapolis longer than he’s currently slated to stay.
Willy Adames Is Putting 2023 Behind Him
Brewers shortstop Willy Adames had a down year in 2023, relative to his own standards. But here in the early parts of the 2024 season, he’s looked more like the pre-2023 version of himself. Even better than that, in fact.
Adames has been fairly consistent in being above average at the plate. That has been mostly due to his power output and in spite of some high strikeout totals. He also steals a few bases and has been considered strong on defense at a premium position. The glovework was a bit more contested earlier in his career but the praise has become more unanimous over time.
He debuted with the Rays in 2018, getting into 85 games that year. He struck out in 29.4% of his plate appearances but also launched 10 home runs in that time. His .278/.348/.406 batting line translated to a 110 wRC+, indicating he was 10% above league average.
In his first full season in 2019, he got into 152 games and doubled his home run total to 20. However, since that was the “juiced ball” season and the grading curve was thrown off, he was actually considered slightly below average with a 99 wRC+. In the small sample of the shortened 2020 season, he hit another eight homers and slashed .259 .332 .481 for a wRC+ of 126. The next two full seasons saw him continue to strike out a decent amount, but with home run tallies of 25 and 31, leading to a wRC+ of 120 and 109 in those campaigns. He spent most of those two years with the Brewers after being traded early in the 2021 season.
As mentioned up top, there was a dip in 2023, which looks like it may have been mostly about luck. His 11.1% walk rate was actually a career high and his 25.9% strikeout rate was a career low. The 24 home runs were a tad lower than the previous two seasons, but not by much. But when the ball didn’t go over the fence, his batting average was just .259. That was almost 40 points below last year’s .297 league-wide batting average on balls in play and below his career rate of .311. He finished the year with a line of .217/.310/.407 and a 94 wRC+.
That may not have been entirely bad fortune, as his batted ball metrics also dipped alongside his results. His average exit velocity was 87.4 miles per hour last year, whereas he was between 88.5 and 89.5 in the previous four campaigns. His 36.5% hard hit rate was also down, as he finished between 40.5% and 44.7% in the three prior years.
Perhaps the lack of zip partially explains why he was finding so many gloves last year, but he’s had no such problems here in 2024. Through his first 30 games this year, he has a .313 BABIP, a huge turnaround from last year and right in line with his career mark. His average exit velocity is back up, currently at 89.5 miles per hour for the year. His hard hit rate has also recovered, currently at 42.7% this season. He already has six home runs while his 12.7% walk rate and 20.1% strikeout rate are both career bests. His .278/.373/.496 batting line translates to a huge 147 wRC+.
Although the Statcast metrics somewhat supported his decline in results last year, the 2023 season looks like a clear outlier compared to the rest of his career. Perhaps Adames was playing through some kind of injury that was tugging him down last year. He was struck in the head by a foul ball in the dugout in late May and went on the concussion-related injured list, returning a week later. He was hitting just .205/.292/.384 before that injury, however, with a .234 BABIP. After his return, his BABIP crept up to .274 as he slashed .223/.318/.418 the rest of the way.
Regardless of the cause, the 2023 dip seems to be in the rear-view mirror now. His Statcast metrics are back to pre-2023 levels and his overall results have been even better, particularly with that improved plate discipline. Even if he doesn’t maintain this excellent form all the way through the end of the year, a bounceback at the plate should set him up nicely as he heads into free agency this winter.
In terms of his glovework, Defensive Runs Saved is a long-time fan. That metric gave Adames a -8 in his rookie debut but has been in positive territory in each season since. Outs Above Average took longer to come around, giving Adames a negative grade in three of four years from 2018 to 2021. But he was given grades of +10 and +16 in the last two campaigns, with a mark of +4 already here this year. His +29 OAA since the start of 2022 is second among all big league shortstops, trailing only Dansby Swanson. His 17 DRS in that time is fourth in the league among shortstops.
Adames has roughly average sprint speed but can steal a few bases, as mentioned. He has between four and eight steals in each full season of his career, with four already in the early parts of this year.
He also has a strong track record in terms of health. He had the aforementioned stint on the concussion IL last year, and previously missed about three weeks due to a high left ankle sprain in 2022 and about two weeks in 2021 due to a left quad strain, but that’s it. Apart from his rookie season, when he was frequently optioned to the minors, he’s never played less than 139 games in a full season.
All of these ingredients should come together nicely for Adames this winter. The most recent offseason was icy for the players and it’s hard to know how much to reset expectations because of it, but everyday shortstops tend to get paid. Since the end of the 2021 season, nine different nine-figure contracts have been given to free agent shortstops. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows three for players going into their age-29 seasons:
- Dansby Swanson, Cubs, seven years, $177MM
- Javier Báez, Tigers, six years, $140MM
- Trevor Story, Red Sox, six years, $140MM
Adames is going to be the same age as the Swanson-Báez-Story trio, heading into his age-29 season, but could potentially be in a better position than any of that three. Story had shown tremendous upside but limped into free agency with a 98 wRC+ in his walk year and concerns around his throwing elbow. Swanson had an excellent defensive reputation but inconsistent offense, with just two full seasons where his wRC+ was above average. Báez also had fluctuating offense and mounting strikeout concerns, getting punched out at a 33.6% clip in his walk year.
The Brewers were surely give Adames a qualifying offer at season’s end, which he will reject. Báez was spared a QO since he was traded midseason but Swanson and Story each rejected QOs and were therefore tied to the associated penalties.
Adames may not be an MVP candidate. In fact, he’s bizarrely never even been an All-Star. But there’s a steadiness to his production. He’s never had more than 4.4 wins above replacement in a season, per FanGraphs, but he’s also been worth at least 3.1 fWAR in each full season. He’s already at 1.7 fWAR here in 2024.
As we saw in the most recent winter, the market can be affected by things beyond a player’s control, such as TV rights deals and luxury tax calculations. But Adames is currently doing everything in his power to set himself up well for the upcoming offseason. The longer he keeps it up, the more he will make 2023 look like a distant memory.
Seven Veterans With Opt-Out Opportunities Tomorrow
As part of the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the Players Association agreed to a few automatic opt-out dates for some veteran players on minor league contracts. Article XX(B) free agents — generally, players with over six years of MLB service who finished the preceding season on a big league roster — who sign minor league contracts more than ten days before Opening Day receive three uniform chances to retest free agency if they’re not promoted.
The first comes five days before the start of the season. For players who pass on that initial opt-out, they have additional windows to explore the open market on both May 1 and June 1 if they’ve yet to secure a spot on the 40-man roster. There were 31 players who initially had that option in Spring Training.
Eleven of them — Carlos Carrasco, Garrett Cooper, Chase Anderson, Tyler Duffey, Dominic Leone, Matt Barnes, Eddie Rosario, Jesse Winker, Jesse Chavez, Brad Keller and José Ureña — are now on major league rosters. Kevin Pillar, Bryan Shaw and Joely Rodríguez also landed MLB jobs but were subsequently designated for assignment. Rodríguez remains in DFA limbo with the Red Sox. Shaw cleared waivers and signed a minor league deal with the Angels. Pillar elected free agency over the weekend.
Five of these players — Matt Duffy, Kolten Wong, Carl Edwards Jr., Drew Pomeranz and Curt Casali — triggered their first opt-out and have since signed new minor league contracts, either with their previous organization or a different club. They presumably secured some kind of opt-out provision in their new deals, but they no longer have an automatic May 1 out date. Five others — Elvis Andrus, Eduardo Escobar, Mike Moustakas, C.J. Cron and Jake Odorizzi — were let go and have yet to sign elsewhere.
The other seven players have the option to retest free agency tomorrow. None of the group has played well enough to likely leverage their opt-out right into an immediate MLB job, but two or three could decide to hit the market and look for a better minor league opportunity elsewhere.
Angels: OF Jake Marisnick
Marisnick has spent most of his career as a glove-first outfielder off the bench. He’s a right-handed hitter with some pop against lefty pitching but subpar on-base skills. Marisnick had appeared in 46 MLB games between three teams a season ago, but he hasn’t been on the field much in 2024. He made just five appearances for the Halos’ top affiliate in Salt Lake before going on the minor league injured list on April 17.
Blue Jays: 1B Joey Votto
Votto inked a minor league deal with his hometown team early in Spring Training. The former MVP indicated at the time he was prepared to open the season in Triple-A. Votto suffered an ankle injury during his first exhibition game and has spent the entire season on the minor league IL. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweeted last week that Votto was running but had yet to resume hitting live pitching. It feels safe to assume he’ll pass on this opt-out chance and continue working back to health with the Jays. Daniel Vogelbach, who is on the MLB roster as a lefty bench bat, hasn’t produced (.111/.304/.167) over his first 23 plate appearances. That could open a path for Votto to get to Rogers Centre once he’s healthy.
Cubs: OF David Peralta
Peralta opened the season on the injured list with Triple-A Iowa. He was reinstated on April 10 and has appeared in 13 contests. The left-handed hitter has drawn nine walks with only seven strikeouts through his first 55 plate appearances, but he hasn’t done any kind of damage on contact. Peralta has just two extra-base hits (both doubles) and an overall .214/.364/.262 line through the season’s first month. The former Gold Glove left fielder played in 133 games for the Dodgers a year ago, hitting .259/.294/.381 over 422 plate appearances. He underwent surgery to repair a flexor tear in his throwing arm last October but has been able to play the outfield this season.
Mets: 1B Jiman Choi
Choi lost a camp battle with DJ Stewart this spring. He reported to Triple-A Syracuse but hasn’t made much of an impact. The left-handed hitter is out to a .191/.333/.340 start with a near-27% strikeout rate over 60 plate appearances. The Mets probably wouldn’t add him to the MLB roster, but Choi could take the opportunity to look for another minor league deal with a team that has a clearer path to first base/DH time. Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez have those spots secured in Queens, while Stewart and Mark Vientos are above him on the depth chart as bench bats. Choi struggled with injuries in 2023 but was an above-average offensive performer with the Rays between 2019-22.
Rangers: Shane Greene
Greene has made three MLB appearances in each of the last two seasons. The right-hander was excellent in a limited look in Triple-A with the Cubs last year but has had a terrible start to 2024. Greene has walked 14 of the first 49 batters he’s faced for Round Rock, allowing 15 runs in eight innings. The Express placed him on the IL last week. Texas certainly can’t give him a spot in the MLB bullpen at this point. There’s a good chance Greene elects to stay in Round Rock as he tries to get healthy and find his command.
Red Sox: Michael Fulmer, Roberto Pérez
Neither Fulmer nor Pérez has played this season. Fulmer will miss the entire year after undergoing elbow surgery last fall. His contract is a two-year deal; he almost certainly won’t be exercising any of his three opt-out chances.
Pérez missed most of 2023 after undergoing a rotator cuff repair on his right shoulder. He played in seven games this spring but has spent the regular season on the minor league IL with an undisclosed injury. The Sox have gotten excellent play from their catching tandem of Connor Wong and Reese McGuire in the season’s first month. Perhaps Pérez feels there’s a better path to playing time if he signs a minor league deal with another team, but it seems likelier he’ll stick in the organization.
Alex Bregman’s Slow Start Could Cost Him Millions
Both the Astros and Alex Bregman are off to slow starts in 2024. There’s still lots of time left in the season for things to change, both for the club and for the player. But Bregman is set to be one of the top free agents available this winter and his slow start could have a significant impact on his earning power.
Bregman, 30, has appeared in 25 games this year and taken 108 trips to the plate. He remains tough to strike out, as his 12% clip is a match for last year’s rate and close to his career average. His 9.3% walk rate is a bit above this year’s 8.6% league average but well below Bregman’s previous form, as he drew free passes in 13.8% of his plate appearances from 2018 to 2023.
When he has put the bat on the ball, he hasn’t been able to do damage. Most notably, he has yet to hit a home run this season. He has just 21 hits, with his five doubles being the only knocks of the extra-base variety. His batting line for the year is .216/.287/.268, which translates to a wRC+ of 65, indicating he’s been 35% worse than league average. His .247 batting average on balls in play is below average and below his career rate, but his barrel rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are also down relative to his career marks.
As mentioned, there’s plenty of time for him to turn things around, since we’re not even in the month of May yet. Bregman has been here before. The slump is not without precedent. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his .555 OPS this year is the seventh-worst of any 25-game stretch of his career. The six worse stretches all had a winter’s gap, as they each go from the end of 2022 to the start of 2023. That means Bregman is technically in the worst single-season slump of his career, but he also had a .558 OPS across May and June of 2022, not far off from his current woes.
Given that he’s had a tailspin like this before, it seems fair to expect him to pull out of it. However, that doesn’t mean teams won’t use it against him in free agency. As we just saw in the winter, clubs are quite willing to wave any red flags they can get their hands on if it helps their bargaining position.
Cody Bellinger hit .307/.356/.525 for the Cubs last year and seemed poised for a huge payday, especially when also factoring in his 20 stolen bases and center field defense. But his mega contract never arrived, perhaps due to health concerns or perhaps due to his Statcast data being on the weak side. He was notoriously poor over 2021 and 2022 in the aftermath of shoulder surgery, and his 2023 bounceback season still saw him go on the injured list. While the end-of-season results were strong, his average exit velocity was in the 22nd percentile of qualified league hitters while his hard hit rate was in the 10th.
On the other end of the spectrum was Matt Chapman, who had strong Statcast metrics but tepid results. Chapman’s exit velocity and hard hit rate were among the best in the league, finishing in the 98th and 100th percentile, respectively. But he hit .240/.330/.424 on the year overall, 110 wRC+, and in rather uneven fashion. As many pointed out, he hit .384/.465/.687 in April but then .205/.298/.361 the rest of the way. That framing ignores the fact that Chapman was still good in July and got hurt in August, which may have made his post-April stats look worse than they were, but it may not have mattered.
When MLBTR previewed the upcoming free agent class, which is linked above, it was mentioned that a seven- or eight-year deal north of $200MM was a possibility for Bregman. Flawed-but-talented players have certainly gone over that line before, with Xander Bogaerts and Anthony Rendon some of the recent examples. The expectation of the industry was that players like Bellinger and Chapman could get nine-figure deals despite their own issues, but that’s not how it played out. Each had to settle for a three-year deal with opt-outs, hoping that continued strong performance could lead to a better deal down the road.
Bregman has plenty of attributes that he and his reps can point to. Injuries have not been a major factor for him, as he has played at least 155 games in five of the past six full seasons. His strikeout and walk rates are both consistently better than average, while his third base defense is rated well. The elite offense he showed in 2018 and 2019 might be gone, but he hit .261/.364/.447 over 2022 and 2023 for a 131 wRC+.
But his struggles this year could be used against him, even if they don’t last all year, which could be tricky for Bregman. Back in March of 2019, he signed a $100MM extension with the club which locked in some big money for him but also gave the club two years of extra control. That means that despite debuting in the big leagues at the age of 22, he’ll be going into free agency ahead of his age-31 season.
It seems fair to assume that Bregman and his representatives at the Boras Corporation would prefer to lock in as much money as they can this winter. Boras clients have pivoted to short-term deals when necessary, but Bregman’s age make that undesirable, as it will be harder for him to increase his earning power as he moves deeper into his 30s. He and the Astros have had some on-and-off talks about another extension in recent years, but the fact that nothing has come together yet perhaps suggests that he has been holding out for something big this winter.
The Astros under owner Jim Crane have been averse to lengthy contracts, having never gone longer than six years. Even the six-year extensions they did agree to were for much younger players. Jose Altuve got a six-year deal which started with his age-29 season while Yordan Alvarez got one starting for his age-26 campaign. However, they did just sign another extension with Altuve, a five-year pact that covers his age-35 through age-39 seasons, so it’s not as though going deep into a player’s 30s is completely off the table.
Perhaps Bregman can finish the season strong and the market conditions will eventually work in his favor. This past offseason, it seems like factors such as dwindling TV revenue and the competitive balance tax had negative impacts on free agents. It’s possible to imagine a correction this winter. Perhaps the Mets will be looking to get more aggressive after being relatively quiet. Maybe the new owner of the Orioles looks to make a headline-grabbing deal. Maybe the Red Sox come out swinging after some positive player development in 2024.
But even if those stars do align, those clubs will have other options, such as 26-year-old hitting savant Juan Soto, bona fide ace Corbin Burnes, consistent power threat Pete Alonso or everyday shortstop Willy Adames.
Even the teams looking to make a big splash next winter might not have Bregman atop their list as a 31-year-old third baseman who has been quite good but not necessarily elite in recent years. The longer this slump continues, the more they can use it as a bargaining tactic. Bregman and Boras surely noticed what happened to Bellinger, Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who all had to lower their demands as the recent offseason slouched along. Even Snell’s Cy Young season couldn’t wash away concerns about his previous low points.
One thing that could work in Bregman’s favor is if the Astros keep struggling and he winds up traded at the deadline, which would make him ineligible for a qualifying offer. But Montgomery didn’t have a QO attached to him this past winter and that didn’t seem to matter much. Bregman and the Boras team are undoubtedly aware that there’s a wide range of outcomes for his free agency, making the next few months all the more important.
Who Could The Marlins Trade This Summer?
A team can’t cement a playoff spot in April, but they can certainly play their way out of the mix. Such is the case with the Marlins. Miami blew a 7-0 lead against the Nationals yesterday to fall to an MLB-worst 6-23 start. Whatever slim hope they had of competing for a playoff spot entering the season is gone. They’re going to be deadline sellers. It’s just a matter of when they start moving players and who will go.
New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix figures to be broadly open to dealing anyone beyond Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara, both of whom are rehabbing Tommy John surgeries anyhow. Much of the roster was assembled before he was hired last November, so he probably doesn’t have a ton of attachment to this group.
Bendix also joined Miami after a long stint with the Rays, a front office that was never afraid to move established players as they navigated payroll limitations. Tampa Bay occasionally made key deals at atypical times on the schedule, including trading Austin Meadows just before Opening Day in 2022 and swapping Willy Adames for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen the previous May.
The Fish are more likely to deal some players than others, of course, so let’s run through a few of the top possibilities:
Rogers was an All-Star and the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021. He was ineffective in 2022 and limited to four starts last season by injury. The 6’5″ southpaw is one of the rare Miami pitchers who hasn’t been impacted by health concerns early this year. Rogers isn’t back to his early-career peak, but he has looked the part of a capable mid-rotation arm through five starts. He owns a 4.10 ERA in 26 1/3 innings.
The former first-rounder’s velocity is sitting around 92 MPH — down from the 94-95 he was pumping as a rookie — and his strikeout rate sits at a personal-low 20.6%. He’s getting ground-balls at a near-52% clip, though, and he’s done a solid job throwing strikes. Even if Rogers might not be the top-end arm he seemed three years ago, he’s an affordable mid-rotation starter who is under arbitration control for two seasons beyond this one. He’s making just $1.53MM this year, as the injuries prevented him from building much of a résumé going into his arb window.
Entering the season, Luzardo was the left-hander more teams were probably monitoring. He could certainly still be a coveted deadline target, but he’ll need to rebound from a rough couple weeks. Luzardo has been rocked for a 6.58 ERA with elevated walk and home run rates through his first 26 innings. He went on the 15-day injured list late last week with elbow tightness. It’s still not clear how serious that is.
If Luzardo returns to health and looks more like his 2023 self, he’d be one of the top upside plays on the market. He was an upper mid-rotation starter last season, turning in 178 2/3 innings of 3.58 ERA ball. Luzardo’s fastball velocity was sitting in its customary 97 MPH range before he went on the IL and he continued to miss plenty of bats. He and the Fish agreed to a $5.5MM salary to avoid arbitration last winter. Like Rogers, he’s under team control for two more years.
Garrett, 26, was a quietly effective rotation piece a year ago. The control artist turned in his second straight sub-4.00 ERA showing over 159 2/3 frames. He fanned an above-average 23.7% of opponents and kept the ball on the ground nearly half the time batters made contact.
The former #7 overall pick hasn’t pitched in the majors in 2024. He opened the year on the IL with a shoulder impingement. He had a brief setback when he experienced dead arm after a throwing session, but it’s not believed to be serious. He threw three innings in a rehab start last Friday. Garrett is making around the league minimum and will be go through arbitration four times after this season. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, but he misses bats with his offspeed stuff and has a career 3.86 ERA with peripherals to match. The Fish should get plenty of calls on him in July if he’s healthy.
Cabrera rounds out the quartet of potentially desirable rotation pieces. He may be the hardest of the group to evaluate. The former top prospect has huge stuff. His fastball sits in the high-90s. Cabrera can miss bats and generate plenty of grounders with all three of his secondary pitches (changeup, curveball, slider). At 26, it’s still not out of the question that he blossoms into a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Yet the Dominican-born righty has never thrown 100 innings in a major league season (although he fell one out shy of that arbitrary cutoff last year). That’s partially because he has a few arm-related injured list stints, including a two-week stay to open this season resulting from a shoulder impingement. He’s also nearly as wild a starter as there is in MLB. Cabrera walked 15.2% of batters faced last year and has issued free passes at a near-14% clip in his big league career.
The Marlins won’t feel obligated to move Cabrera for whatever they can get. He’s under control for four years after this, though he’ll qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter. The Fish considered trade possibilities over the offseason, so he’s unlikely to be off the table, but a team will need to meet a lofty asking price.
Of Miami’s hitters, Arraez is the biggest name. A defending two-time batting champ, he’s probably the best pure contact hitter in the sport. His .305 average through his first 129 plate appearances would be the second-lowest of his career. Arraez is going to reach base at a high clip, but he offers minimal power — career-high 10 homers, zero in 2024 — and plays a well below-average second base.
Arraez will still draw interest, but his trade value isn’t as high as one might assume based solely on the batting average. In addition to his defensive limitations, his control window is shrinking. Arraez is playing this season on a $10.6MM salary and will go through the arbitration process once more before getting to free agency. He’d likely earn something in the $13-15MM range next season, which could motivate the Marlins to deal him this summer.
Chisholm hasn’t quite developed into the franchise player that he seemed he might become early in his career. He has been a solid regular with flashes beyond that, though. The switch-hitter connected on 19 homers and stole 22 bases in just 97 games last season, albeit with a modest .304 on-base percentage. He has dramatically increased his walk rate in the early going this year, running a .245/.342/.382 slash through his first 117 plate appearances.
Injuries have been a recurring problem. Chisholm missed a good portion of 2022 to a back issue. He lost chunks of the ’23 campaign with toe and oblique woes. If he stays healthy through this season’s first half, Chisholm could be one of the more intriguing trade candidates of deadline season. He has a tantalizing power/speed combination and can play center field, albeit with differing reviews from public metrics on his glove. Chisholm is making $2.65MM this year and has two more seasons of arbitration control.
Lefty Relief Trio
Each of Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk and Andrew Nardi could be attractive left-handed relief options. They’ve all been hit hard in the early going but have high-octane stuff and performed well last season. The Marlins unsuccessfully auditioned Puk in the rotation but will move him back to relief once he recovers from shoulder fatigue.
Nardi is the least well-known of the group, but he’s controllable for four-plus seasons and won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2026. He has a career strikeout rate north of 30% in 83 2/3 innings. Scott is an impending free agent who has worked the ninth inning for Miami over the last couple seasons. He hasn’t been able to find the strike zone this year, a disappointing start after he issued walks at a career-low 7.8% clip in 2023. Scott is playing this season on a $5.7MM salary. Puk is making $1.8MM and will go through arbitration twice more.
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A few others could draw attention, although they’re probably less likely than the players listed above to move. Many teams would love to land Max Meyer, but it’d take a Godfather offer for the Marlins to move him.
Ryan Weathers leads the team in innings thus far. He’s a former top 10 pick who has pushed his average fastball to 96 MPH and is getting plenty of whiffs on his breaking ball. It’s conceivable teams could have interest, but Weathers has a career 5.67 ERA with subpar strikeout and walk numbers. Anthony Bender has returned from Tommy John surgery to post excellent strikeout and walk rates through his first 11 innings. His ERA is atrocious because of an elevated average on balls in play, but that should normalize well before the deadline.
The Marlins aren’t likely to find a taker for any portion of the Avisaíl García contract. That’d also be the case for Josh Bell unless he has a dramatic turnaround at the plate. He’s hitting .176/.270/.287 and playing on a $16.5MM salary. Neither Nick Fortes nor Christian Bethancourt has contributed anything offensively.
The Fish took a $5MM rebound flier on Tim Anderson over the offseason. That was likely with an eye towards a midseason trade, but he’s out to a .223/.270/.255 start after hitting .245/.286/.296 in his final year with the White Sox. He’ll need to perform significantly better to draw any kind of interest. Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and Jake Burger are low-OBP corner bats. They’d each have modest value if the Marlins wanted to deal them.
The Evolution Of Alec Bohm
The Phillies are out to a strong 16-10 start here in 2024 and a portion of the credit has to go to third baseman Alec Bohm, who is out to a scorching-hot start at the plate.
The lanky corner infielder has taken 104 trips to the plate this year over 26 games and has a batting line of .333/.423/.556. That translates to a wRC+ of 170, indicating he’s been 70% better than the league average hitter so far this year. Among qualified hitters, that makes him the 12th best in the majors so far on the young season.
He probably can’t stay quite this hot over a longer stretch of time. His .386 batting average on balls in play this year is well above his career rate of .324 as well as the .290 league average. Since his exit velocity numbers are pretty similar to previous seasons, the BABIP will likely regress a bit going forward. However, he’s also made some gains in the plate discipline department that could perhaps be more sustainable, as they fit a pattern of growth that goes back a few years.
Bohm went through three minor league levels as a prospect in 2019, going from Low-A to High-A to Double-A. He walked in 10.6% of his plate appearances and only struck out 13.5% of the time. Prospect evaluators had praised his eye at the plate and those numbers tracked with that. He hit .305/.378/.518 that year across those minor league levels for a 161 wRC+.
In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Bohm shot onto the scene with a huge major league debut. He hit .338/.400/.481 for a 138 wRC+. His 20% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate weren’t quite as strong as in the minors the year prior, but that was fairly logical for a guy skipping Triple-A and getting to the big leagues for the first time.
But it seems the league adjusted the next year, as Bohm endured an awful sophomore slump in 2021. He took 417 trips to the plate that year and was punched out in 26.6% of them. His walk rate also fell to 7.4%. He only hit seven home runs on the year, leading to a paltry line of .247/.305/.342 and a 77 wRC+. He was optioned to the minors for a time, spending just over a month on the farm from late August to late September.
Since that awful season, however, Bohm has been gradually climbing in terms of his results and approach at the plate . In 2022, his walk rate dropped to 4.9% but he only struck out at a 17.4% clip, almost a ten-point drop from the prior season. His .280/.315/.398 batting line wasn’t amazing, leading to a 98 wRC+, but it was still progress relative to the prior year.
Last season, he continued down that path by dropping his strikeout rate even further to 15.4%, with his walk rate ticking up slightly to 6.9%. He also set a new career high with 20 home runs, leading to a .274/.327/.437 slash and 105 wRC+.
As mentioned up top, Bohm has a huge slash line this year, which is at least partly fueled by his strong BABIP. But he’s also drawn walks at a massive 13.5% clip, almost double where he was at last year. He’s swinging at just 27.8% of pitches outside the zone so far this year, whereas he chased at a 33.4% rate in prior seasons. Even when he does chase, his 79% contact rate on pitches outside the zone is far higher than the 71.2% rate he had coming into the year. On pitches in the zone, he’s making contact at a 93.6% rate, compared to his 86.7% rate coming into the year.
Looking at his swinging-strike rate, there is a direct downward trend from his sophomore slump year in 2021 to the present. It was 11.7% that year but dropped to 9.6% the year after, followed by 7.8% last year. He’s down to just 5.1% this year. Going forward, BABIP results will sway with luck as they often do. But the fact that he swings and misses less as time goes on suggests that he has been maturing in the areas he can control.
What’s also encouraging is that he’s been doing damage against both lefties and righties this year, whereas he had seemed to be leaning towards a short-side platoon role in previous years. He currently has a career 143 wRC+ against southpaws but just an 87 otherwise. As recently as last year, those figures were 142 against lefties and 92 against righties. So far this season, he’s at 205 and 149, still a big split but well above average regardless of who he has faced.
Defense is also important for Bohm, as he’s never been considered an especially strong third baseman, nor one who was destined to stay there for a long time. Going into 2020, the Baseball America scouting report on Bohm contained this passage: “Kris Bryant and Troy Glaus are the only players 6-foot-5 or taller to play more than 200 games at third base in MLB history. Bohm is unlikely to become the third.”
Well, Bohm has already gone past that 200-game threshold, having already played 388 contests at the hot corner. The results have not been great, however, as he has career tallies of -49 Defensive Runs Saved and -11 Outs Above Average.
Last year, the Phillies started playing Bohm at first base more with Rhys Hoskins injured, but Bryce Harper eventually took it over. Though Harper was previously an outfielder, he returned from Tommy John surgery as a designated hitter and then eventually moved into first base due to the lesser throwing demands at that position.
After the 2023 season, it was announced that Harper would stay at first base going forward and would not be returning to the outfield. Since Kyle Schwarber is effectively a full-time designated hitter now, Bohm is locked in at third.
It’s possible to see some evolution in his glovework at third as well, depending on which metric you trust. DRS has continued to be extremely pessimistic, with Bohm at -10 or worse in each of the previous three campaigns. He’s already at -3 DRS so far this year, not even a month into the season. But OAA is bit more hopeful, since Bohm bottomed out by that metric with a -9 in 2022, before getting to +1 last year. Though that was in a smaller sample size since he spent roughly half his time at first base, where OAA gave him a -6 on the year. He’s still at an even zero at third base so far in the early parts of 2024, meaning OAA considers him roughly average at the hot corner going back to the start of last year. Even if one buys into that more optimistic view, Bohm will likely have to move off third at some point.
Schwarber is a free agent after 2025, which could perhaps allow Bohm to share first base and designated hitter with Harper. On the other hand, Nick Castellanos is under contract through 2026 and is also considered a weak defender, so perhaps he becomes the DH when Schwarber’s contract is up. The club has had past interest in trading Castellanos and he’s currently hitting .177/.233/.198, so there’s definitely a chance he’s no longer with the team by 2026 (whether due to a trade or release).
Bohm is controlled via arbitration through the 2026 season and could perhaps be extended beyond that point if the club really believes in his bat. But it’s not a perfect roster fit even after Schwarber and Castellanos are gone. Harper’s contract goes all the way through 2031, and it seems he’ll stay a first baseman and designated hitter for the rest of his career. Having Harper and Bohm locked in at those two spots isn’t ideal roster construction, as clubs often like to have at least some ability to rotate their regular players through the DH spot for a bit of rest.
For now, Bohm will stick at third and the club will likely be happy to live with his defense as long as he’s good in the batter’s box. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said as much a few years ago. “His key is he has to hit. If he hits well enough, you’ll live with the defensive aspect of it,” said Dombrowski after Bohm’s rough 2021 campaign. With Bohm’s results so far this year, he’s making things easy on Dombrowski and the Phils, and will continue to do so if he can keep it up.
Josh Naylor Just Keeps Getting Better
There have always been fairly high expectations for Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor. He entered the 2015 draft considered one of the 60 or so best talents available and instead vaulted to the No. 12 overall selection when the Marlins took him and cut an under-slot deal with him, signing him for a $2.25MM bonus that clocked in shy of his $3.05MM slot value.
As if the draft stock wasn’t enough, Naylor was soon included in a pair of relatively high-profile trades. Miami sent him to the Padres alongside Carter Capps, Jarred Cosart and, ahem, Luis Castillo (whoops) in exchange for Andrew Cashner, Colin Rea and Tayron Guerrero. Naylor ranked among the game’s top-100 prospects heading into the 2019 season and made his debut with San Diego that season before being packaged with Owen Miller, Austin Hedges, Joey Cantillo, Gabriel Arias and Cal Quantrill to acquire Mike Clevinger, Greg Allen and Matt Waldron from Cleveland (again… whoops).
For the first three seasons of Naylor’s career, he was an up-and-down first baseman/outfielder/designated hitter who didn’t do much hitting. In his first 633 plate appearances, he posted an anemic .250/.306/.389 batting line (88 wRC+). His 19.1% strikeout rate was lower than the league average, but so was his 7% walk rate. Naylor hit the ball on the ground at a huge 51.6% clip, which is far from ideal for a hitter who drew 20- and 30-grade marks for his speed as a prospect. He was borderline passive at the dish, only swinging at 48% of pitches thrown.
In what amounted to roughly a full season’s worth of plate appearances (603) over that three-year span, Naylor was more or less a replacement-level player. He made plenty of contact but didn’t do much damage with it and didn’t really contribute defensively. Naylor posted below-average grades from both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average in the outfield corners and only saw sparse action at first base (106 innings).
In 2022, the Guardians moved Naylor to first base full time. Whether he felt more comfortable there and thus at the plate, or whether he simply adapted to big league pitching after getting a few hundred plate appearances under his belt, a corner was clearly turned. Naylor took a huge step forward at the dish, smacking a career-best 20 homers while hitting .256/.319/.452 in 498 plate appearances. His walk rate crept up from 5.6% to 7.6% His strikeout rate dipped from 18% to 16.1%. Things continued trending in a positive direction in 2023, with Naylor cutting the strikeout rate all the way to 13.7% as he turned in an even better .308/.354/.489 slash.
This season, Naylor’s gone from a solid middle-of-the-order hitter behind star teammate Jose Ramirez to a star-caliber bat himself, however. He’s out to a blistering .295/.366/.557 start, and it’s not the type of early-season fluke that’s propped up by a .400-something average on balls in play. Naylor’s .274 BABIP is actually 21 points lower than the .295 mark he carried into the season, in fact. So what’s changed?
For starters, the K-BB profile has only continued to get better. He’s walking at an 8.9% clip that’d be right in line with his 9% career-best mark from back in his rookie season. His 10.9% strikeout rate isn’t just a career-best — it’s tied with Mookie Betts for the eighth-lowest in MLB. Naylor has always been a free swinger who’s chased off the plate a lot; he swung at 38.4% of pitches off the plate in his career prior to 2024. This year, he’s at 32.6%. His overall contact rate is actually down a tick, but that’s easier to stomach when he’s laying off more bad balls and working himself into better counts.
It’s also in part due to what appears to be a conscious effort to do more damage at the plate. More than half of Naylor’s batted balls (50.4%) were hit on the ground through his first four seasons. He lowered his ground-ball rate in each of his first four MLB seasons but took a major jump in 2023, cutting that grounder rate from 48.9% in ’22 to 42.7%. This year, Naylor is only putting 40.5% of his batted balls on the ground. Both his 22.8% line-drive rate and 36.7% fly-ball rate are career-high marks.
As one would expect, elevating the ball more regularly is leading to considerably more damage. Naylor may be sacrificing a bit of contact, but he possesses such strong bat-to-ball skills that you’ll rarely see him swing through multiple pitches in the same at-bat. And the extra oomph in his swing is producing better results not just in his rate stats but in the under-the-hood numbers as well. Naylor’s 90.7 mph average exit velocity, 12.7% barrel rate and 44.3% hard-hit rate — as measured by Statcast — are all easy career-highs. He’s seen 20.7% of his fly-balls clear the fence for home runs — a major improvement over his career 13% mark and the single-season career-high of 15.9% he established in 2022.
For years, the Guardians have forged an identity as a team full of pesky, tough-to-strike-out hitters who put the ball in play but also generally lacked pop. Ramirez was a true heart-of-the-order slugger who managed to embody that contact-driven focus while still hitting for power, but Cleveland lacked anyone else who fit that profile. It’s early in 2024, but Naylor looks to be figuring out the recipe for toeing that same line. The six homers he’s hit in 101 plate appearances is already one shy of his 2021 total in 250 plate appearances and already 30% of the way to his career-high in only 20% the playing time.
Still just 26 years old, Naylor remains in his physical prime and is refining an already strong approach and plan at the plate in a way that’s letting him tap into the 60- to 70-grade marks that scouts put on his power during his prospect days. In doing so, he appears on the cusp of breaking out as a potentially elite hitter.
Heading into the season, with questions about how the Guardians would fare coming off a disappointing 2023 season, it was reasonable to view Naylor as a possible summer trade candidate. Multiple clubs expressed interest him over the winter. He’s expensive by Cleveland standards, earning $6.55MM this year, and will very likely command a raise to north of $10MM in 2025 — his final season of club control. The Guardians have a habit of trading players before the get to the point where they could test free agency.
But Cleveland’s excellent start to the season, even in the midst of a severe slate of pitching injuries, should have fans of other clubs pumping the brakes on the idea of prying Naylor from the Guardians’ grasp. If the wave of pitching injuries proves to be too difficult to withstand and the Guards eventually fall out of the race, it could still be a possibility. But right now, Naylor is one of the driving factors in Cleveland’s hot start to the season and breaking out as a critical cog in a lineup that’s vastly exceeding expectations.
The A’s Overpowering Closer
In what’ll be another rough season for the A’s, the front office is looking for young players to establish themselves as key long-term pieces. In the first few weeks, no one has shown more promise in that regard than Mason Miller.
Miller was a third-round pick in 2021. His stuff had taken a major step forward during his final collegiate season. As The Athletic’s Stephen Nesbitt wrote last week, Miller had a hard time keeping on weight and maintaining his strength until he was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes in 2018. While the primary concern was in allowing Miller to navigate a serious health condition, learning how to manage the issue permitted the 6’5″ righty to rapidly bulk up. His velocity spiked into the mid-upper 90s, leading the A’s to roll the dice on his upside.
Injuries essentially robbed Miller of traditional minor league development. He lost almost all of the 2022 season to shoulder issues. He had pitched all of 28 2/3 professional innings before the A’s called him up last April. He had an impressive four-start debut before reporting forearm soreness. Testing revealed a mild UCL sprain and the A’s shut him down for a few months. Miller returned in September, working 2-3 inning stints to finish the year. He closed his rookie campaign with a 3.78 ERA in 33 1/3 innings.
Oakland GM David Forst announced early in the offseason that Miller would work out of the bullpen in 2024. Forst suggested it wasn’t a permanent switch. Rather, the A’s were using the 25-year-old in shorter stints in an effort to keep him healthy before a move back to the rotation in 2025. While they certainly had high hopes that his power arsenal would translate, Miller has surpassed even the loftiest expectations in the first few weeks.
Including tonight’s four-out save in the Bronx, Miller is up to 11 1/3 innings of two-run ball. He has successfully locked down all six of his save chances. After allowing two runs in his season debut against the Guardians, he has rattled off eight straight scoreless outings. Four of those have been perfect innings in which he has recorded multiple strikeouts.
Miller has punched out 23 of 45 opposing hitters, the highest strikeout rate in the majors. His already eye-popping stuff has leveled up in short bursts. Miller’s fastball is sitting in the 100-101 MPH range. Both the heater and his upper-80s slider have been essentially untouchable.
Even in a minuscule sample, it doesn’t seem outlandish to call Miller one of the top relievers in MLB. The quality of the arsenal is self-evident. He’s missing bats at the levels we’ve seen from the likes of Edwin Díaz, Félix Bautista and Andrés Muñoz. Given his injury history, one can question whether he’ll be able to stay healthy all season. There’s no reason to doubt his talent.
Miller fell just shy of the cutoff for a full service year in 2023. The A’s control him for six seasons. He’ll qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player during the 2025-26 offseason. That’ll allow him to go through the arb process four times instead of the standard three, yet Miller could stick with the A’s through the ’29 campaign.
Opposing teams will probably try to convince Forst to put Miller on the trade block this summer, but it’s hard to see any realistic way that he gets moved. Even rebuilding clubs rarely trade relievers with the kind of talent that he possesses when they’re in their pre-arbitration seasons. That’s before considering that the A’s presumably still intend to give him a chance to compete for a rotation spot next year. If Miller turns in a full season as a top 3-5 reliever in the sport, perhaps they’d consider him too valuable to take out of the bullpen, but there’s nothing to suggest their long-term plans have changed at this point.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.