Headlines

  • Astros Sign Craig Kimbrel
  • Pirates Promote Bubba Chandler
  • Evan Carter Diagnosed With Fractured Wrist
  • Orioles Extend Samuel Basallo
  • Blue Jays Activate Shane Bieber
  • MLB, ESPN Nearing Deal Involving MLB.TV And In-Market Rights For Five Clubs
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Remove Ads
  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2026-27 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

NPB Players To Watch: September

By Dai Takegami Podziewski | September 14, 2023 at 3:24pm CDT

The 2023 regular season is approaching its final stages in the NPB. Here’s the latest on the players we’ve been keeping track of at MLBTR. If you need a refresher on more specific player profiles, check out the first edition of the series.

Let’s get to it!

(Stats are as of September 13th)

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

Yamamoto continues to show us why he’s undoubtedly the best pitcher in NPB. The 25-year-old right-hander just tossed his second career no-hitter against the Chiba Lotte Marines this past weekend, in front of scouts/executives of 12 MLB ball clubs, including Yankees GM Brian Cashman.

It feels like a long time ago when I wrote that Yamamoto was having a “slow” start to the season by his standards, with a 2.35 ERA in his first 38 ⅓ innings. Yamamoto has shifted into a different gear since May. Yamamoto hasn’t given up an earned run in six consecutive starts, since the beginning of August. He’s currently on a 42-inning streak without an earned run allowed.

In his 20 starts in 2023, the Orix Buffaloes ace has a 1.26 ERA, striking out 26.2% of hitters and walking just 4.3%, and a 1.86 FIP in 143 frames. That 1.26 ERA is good enough for the lowest ERA in NPB since Masahiro Tanaka’s 1.27 ERA in 2011. Yamamoto is once again on pace to claim the Pacific League pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins).

At age 25, Yamamoto is showing no signs of slowing down and continues to evolve. He notably tweaked his delivery last offseason to more of a slide-step style. Despite the “slow start”, it’s safe to say that the change has paid off, as Yamamoto has raised his average fastball velocity to 95.56 mph (152.9 km/h) compared to 94.9 mph (151.9 km/h) in 2022. In addition to his consistency, strikeout stuff, and ability to pitch deep into games, another development in Yamamoto’s game is his ability to keep the ball in the park. Yamamoto has allowed just two homers all season (he gave up between six and eight homers per season since his first full season as a starting pitcher in 2019).

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

It was reported last week that the Yokohama DeNA Baystars lefty will be posted this off-season, as many in Japan predicted last off-season. The 30-year-old southpaw had his best month in July but got roughed up in August with a 5.27 ERA. He had a bounce-back outing earlier today against the Chunichi Dragons, tossing eight innings of one-run ball and striking out eleven, with the sole run coming from a solo homer. His season numbers are still strong, with a 2.71 ERA, 29.96% strikeout rate, and 3.9% walk rate in his 20 starts.

Although his ERA is not as good as 2022 (2.26), Imanaga’s strikeout rate at 29.9% is a career-best. The Baystars ace notably increased his average fastball velocity in the past few seasons. It now sits around 92.2mph (147.5 km/h), compared to 90.8 mph (145.3km/h) in 2021. While Imanaga’s arm is not overpowering, the combination of his command and strikeout stuff allows him to rack up strikeouts. 

3. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

The 27-year-old left-handed closer for the Eagles continues to be one of the best relievers in NPB. Despite his young age and being converted to a starter on a few occasions during his career, Matsui is one of the most accomplished closers in the history of NPB. The southpaw became the ninth NPB pitcher in history to reach 200 career saves and was the youngest player to ever reach that mark. On the season, he has the second most saves in NPB with 33. He’s been nothing but reliable, with strong numbers to back it up; posting a 1.55 ERA, 33.7% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate in 49 appearances. 

Matsui officially earned his overseas free agent rights earlier in the year, giving him the ability to sign with an MLB team without going through the posting system. The Eagles southpaw still hasn’t made clear what his plans are beyond 2023. 

As I wrote in the first edition of the series, Matsui’s struggle to adapt to the WBC ball, which is closer to the MLB ball, may play a role in his MLB evaluation. If MLB offers aren’t enticing enough, he may very well choose to stay in NPB and attempt to break the NPB save record. 

4. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

Takahashi continues to prove that his career-best season in 2022 was not a fluke, posting a strong 2.31 ERA in 22 starts, the eighth highest among qualified starters in the entire NPB. He’s fanned hitters at an 18.8% rate and walking hitters at a 7.7% rate. 

The 27-year-old righty missed a few starts in August because of an illness. He struggled in the first two starts after his return, clearly still regaining his health and conditioning. He bounced back and tossed six shutout innings this past weekend, in front of MLB scouts. He continues to make improvements and his average fastball velocity has improved dramatically since he entered the league, which should make him more intriguing to MLB teams. 

Takahashi made his MLB aspirations clear last offseason, but it’s unclear if he’ll be posted by the Lions. 

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

Naoyuki Uwasawa has had himself another solid season for the Fighters, posting a 2.84 ERA, with an 18.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 158 ⅓ innings, the most innings pitched in all of NPB. 

Sports Hochi reported that scouts from the Angels, Royals, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Cubs attended his September 2nd, so MLB teams are keeping tabs on the 29-year-old right-hander. Unfortunately, there may be a Kohei Arihara-sized cloud hanging over Uwasawa’s MLB dreams. Uwasawa doesn’t have an overpowering arm with his average fastball velocity sitting around 90.8 mph. He also does not boast strikeout stuff, while not having the same command that Arihara had when he was coming to MLB (although Arihara himself was wild during his Rangers tenure). 

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

Sasaki was on pace for a historic season rivaling Yamamoto’s, before he was diagnosed with a left oblique muscle tear which sidelined him at the end of July. The 6-foot-4 hurler was expected to miss the remainder of the 2023 regular season, but made a surprisingly quick recovery and returned over the weekend. Sasaki was limited to three innings since he skipped a rehab start, but still showcased his lively arm, with his signature fastball sitting between 98mph and 100mph. The Marines will likely not overextend their star right-hander, so he will be carefully managed for the remainder of the season. 

On the season, Sasaki has a 1.53 ERA, an unbelievable 40% strikeout rate, a 4.8% walk rate and 88 innings in his 14 starts. There is no doubt about Sasaki’s talent and natural frame at 6’4″ and 203 pounds. The only thing Sasaki has left to “prove” is his durability, and showcasing that he can pitch multiple full seasons. There is plenty of time for him to prove that, since he’ll likely be posted in the 2026 offseason at the earliest, barring any surprise requests.

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Murakami has shrugged off most concerns and has re-established himself as one of the premier power hitters in NPB. Although he has had, by his standards, the statistically worst season since his rookie season in 2019, Murakami is still slashing a solid .253/.372/.497 with 28 homers, 77 RBIs, and a .869 OPS. 

Murakami did address his early season slump in an August interview, where he said he lost his way a little bit while training with the other Japanese stars in the lead-up to the WBC. He said that he got distracted trying to incorporate the training regimen of players like Shohei Ohtani, Masataka Yoshida, and Yu Darvish and did not address his swing as much as he should have. 

While he does have a great walk rate at 18.1%, Murakami is still striking out at an alarming 34.5% rate. He also struggles to hit righties, hitting just .209 against them. He still needs to make improvements with his defense at third base, as he has an NPB-worst 20 errors. This season is obviously far from Murakami’s best, but a down year may allow him to come back even stronger next season.

Murakami signed a three-year deal last offseason that came with a reported guarantee that he will be posted in the 2025-2026 offseason. 

3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants

Okamoto’s name came up in headlines last week, after it was reported that he was on the radar of several MLB teams. Okamoto is in the midst of a career-year, with a slash line of .293/.386/.611 with 90 RBIs and an NPB-leading 38 homers and .997 OPS. He has an 18.9% strikeout rate and a 12.2% walk rate. He was unstoppable in August, slashing .318/.422/.812, blasting 12 homers and driving in 25 runs. 

Okamoto has hinted at interest in a potential MLB move, but he isn’t set to be a free agent until the 2026-2027 offseason. The 6’1″, 220-pound slugger is a career .275 hitter with 182 homers, hitting at least 30 homers in every season since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. The Giants slugger has hit 30 homers for six consecutive seasons, which speaks to his durability and consistency.

The Giants are traditionally against the posting system. The only two players they allowed to be posted were Shun Yamaguchi and Tomoyuki Sugano, and both were unique situations. Yamaguchi was given permission because he made it a part of his free agency deal when signing for the Giants from the Baystars in 2016. Sugano was given special permission to enter the posting system, because he refused to join the Nippon Ham Fighters when he was originally drafted in 2011 and he held out for an entire season before being drafted by the Giants in 2012 (and his uncle is Giants manager Tatsunori Hara, which may have played a role).

As expected, the ball club has denied any conversations regarding Okamoto’s potential move, with executive Atsunori Otsuka saying “We’ve heard he has MLB aspirations, but we’ve never had direct discussion with him about that. We typically don’t accept posting, and want our players to earn their overseas rights. It was the same with Hideki Matsui.”

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. Other NPB top performers are also on the list.

Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Atsuki Taneichi, right-handed starter, Chiba Lotte Marines. Liván Moinelo, left-handed reliever, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. Raidel Martinez, right-handed reliever, Chunichi Dragons. (Moinelo and Martinez will have to defect their homeland, Cuba, to join MLB)

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

MLBTR Originals NPB To MLB Nippon Professional Baseball Kazuma Okamoto Kona Takahashi Munetaka Murakami Naoyuki Uwasawa Roki Sasaki Shota Imanaga Yoshinobu Yamamoto Yuki Matsui

13 comments

Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Third Base

By Steve Adams | September 13, 2023 at 6:20pm CDT

With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.

Over the coming weeks, MLBTR will go around the diamond to preview the free agent class. We’ve already covered catcher, first base and second base so far. Onto third base!

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included for this exercise. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Everyday Players

  • Jeimer Candelario (30); ineligible for qualifying offer

Candelario has spent some time at first base since being traded from the Nationals to the Cubs, but he’s primarily been a third a baseman both this season and in his big league career. While he drew poor marks early in his MLB tenure with Detroit, he’s been only slightly below-average in 2023 by measure of Defensive Runs Saved, while Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating have him slightly above average. At the very least, Candelario can be considered a passable defender at the hot corner.

Teams won’t be chasing Candelario for his glove anyhow — he’s a bat-first player who’ll represent one of the top hitters on this offseason’s market. While he’s cooled a bit in recent weeks — just five hits in his past 52 at-bats — the switch-hitting corner infielder is still hitting .253/.338/.473 on the season. That’s 18% better than league average, by measure of wRC+, giving him three seasons of decidedly above-average work at the plate in the past four years. He’s batted .255/.326/.438 (111 wRC+) dating back to 2020 and has played at a three- to four-WAR pace in each of the 2020, 2021 and 2023 seasons.

The 2022 season looks like an aberration rather than the beginning of any sort of decline, and Candelario will be viewed as a safe bet to turn in above-average offense at a thin position — and in a market where there are few above-average hitters available in general. He’d have been a QO candidate had he stuck with the Nats all year, but his midseason trade renders him ineligible. He’ll have a case for a four-year deal in free agency.

  • Matt Chapman (31); eligible for qualifying offer

Chapman’s brilliant start to the season has long since faded, as he proved unable to sustain the improved strikeout rate he sported through that torrid April performance. He was still an above-average hitter for much of the season thereafter, but he recently fell into a woeful slump and was placed on the injured list with a sprain in his right middle finger. Manager John Schneider revealed at the time of the IL placement that the third baseman had been attempting to play through it for weeks but aggravated the injury during an Aug. 27 at-bat. He’s been out since, his hand in a splint for much of that time.

The .248/.338/.431  batting line that Chapman has posted overall this season remains well above the league-average (13% better, by wRC+), but he’s been a ways shy of his MVP-caliber performance from 2018-19 for the past four years now. Perhaps not coincidentally, he underwent hip surgery back in 2020.

Chapman remains a sensational defender at third base, and paired with his above-average power and strong walk rates, he has a high floor. Even if his offense never returns to peak levels, he’s still been worth between 3.5 and 4.5 WAR in each of the past three seasons. That floor, plus the allure of Chapman’s elite hard-contact skills (despite not always turning into the desired results), should make him one of the most in-demand free agents on the market. Chapman is eligible for a qualifying offer, which he’ll likely receive and reject.

  • Gio Urshela (32); eligible for qualifying offer

That Urshela is eligible for a QO is largely a moot point; he played in just 62 games this year before a fracture in his pelvis ended his season. He won’t receive a qualifying offer, but his track record will still position him for a possible multi-year deal (depending on his recovery) in a thin market at the hot corner.

Urshela hit .299/.329/.374 in 228 plate appearances before sustaining that injury and is a .291/.335/.452 hitter dating back to his 2019 breakout with the Yankees. He doesn’t walk much, but Urshela also puts the ball in play at a strong rate (just an 18.9% strikeout rate in that five-year span) and has previously demonstrated 15- to 20-homer pop in addition to solid defensive skills. There will surely be some trepidation as to how those skills will hold up in the wake of an uncommon injury of this nature, but some teams might also view that as a method of securing Urshela’s talents at a lower-than-expected rate for the next couple seasons.

Multi-Position Veterans

  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa (29)

Two years in the Bronx haven’t gone especially well for Kiner-Falefa, who didn’t pan out as the everyday shortstop and stopgap to Anthony Volpe as well as the Yankees hoped. “IKF” has since moved into a utility role that seems to better suit him. He’s batted just .253/.312/.333 over 873 plate appearances with the Yankees. The ten home runs he’s popped underscore his lack of power, but Kiner-Falefa has also swiped 35 bags as a Yankee (in 44 tries) and proven to be a versatile defender. He’s added some outfield work to his resume and can bounce all over the infield. Defensive metrics like DRS and OAA agree that third base is his best position. Contending teams will see him as a bench piece, but it’s possible some rebuilding clubs or long-shot postseason teams will view him as an everyday option.

  • Donovan Solano (36)

Solano’s out-of-nowhere emergence as a quality big league hitter after signing a minor league deal with the Giants heading into his age-31 season remains remarkable. He’s not slowing down in 2023. The Twins inked him to a one-year, $2MM deal that’s proven to be a bargain, as he’s slashed .287/.372/.404 with five homers while playing first base, second base and third base. He should get a raise to fill a similar multi-positional role with a team in 2024. He’s played more first base (529 innings) and second base (102 innings) than third (82 innings) in Minnesota, but he’s still capable at all three spots.

  • Joey Wendle (34)

Wendle was seen as a premium defender with an above-average but underrated bat at the time of his trade from Tampa Bay to Miami. He’s largely lived up to that “premium defender” billing with the Marlins, but his left-handed bat has fallen off a cliff. In 668 plate appearances with Miami, Wendle is hitting just .244/.280/.345. He has elite defensive marks at second base and above-average marks at both left-side infield positions in his big league career and could still garner interest as a utilityman on a big league deal.

Part-Time/Platoon Veterans

  • Josh Donaldson (38)

The 2023 season has been a nightmare for Donaldson, who turned in a career-worst .142/.225/.434 line in 120 plate appearances before being released by the Yankees late last month. The Brewers signed Donaldson to a minor league deal, called him to the big leagues earlier this week, and have watched him go 3-for-6 with a homer and three walks. Ugly as the season has been, Donaldson has mashed four homers in 32 plate appearances against lefties. If he can show well down the stretch (and perhaps into the postseason) with the Brew Crew, he could attract Major League interest in free agency — albeit likely in a part-time role.

  • Evan Longoria (38)

A former American League Rookie of the Year and three-time All-Star, Longoria has been roughly average at the plate in 2023 during his first season with the D-backs. He’s hitting lefties at a solid .242/.318/.463 clip, however, and could hold appeal to a contending club as a part-time corner infielder and designated hitter. He’s quite clearly not the superlative defender and perennial MVP candidate he was early in his career, but Longo hits lefties and has popped 11 homers in 219 plate appearances while posting a .214 ISO (slugging minus batting average). He’s also averaging a massive 92.6 mph exit velocity and with a similarly gaudy 53.5% hard-hit rate. He’s sitting on a career-worst 32% strikeout rate, but when Longo makes contact — it’s typically loud.

Depth Candidates

  • Ehire Adrianza (34)

A shoulder injury has cost Adrianza most of the 2023 season. He’s taken just 11 turns at the dish with the Braves this year. The switch-hitting 34-year-old can play all over the infield, but he’s just a .209/.295/.310 hitter in 431 plate appearances dating back to 2020.

  • Hanser Alberto (31)

Alberto hit .220/.261/.390 in 90 plate appearances with the White Sox this year. His right-handed bat has never been able to handle right-handed pitching (.232/.257/.330), but he’s a career .324/.343/.455 hitter against lefties. He has generally positive defensive grades at multiple infield spots but made some glaring and costly miscues with the Sox prior to his June release.

  • Brian Anderson (31)

The former Marlins standout has been hobbled by injuries in recent seasons and was non-tendered by Miami last November. He signed a one-year pact with the Brewers and got out to a big start, but Anderson’s batting line is down to .224/.309/.364 after a slow summer at the plate and he’s striking out at a career-worst 30.1% rate.

  • Charlie Culberson (35)

Culberson made exactly one plate appearance with the Braves this season despite spending several weeks on the big league roster. He appeared in 24 Triple-A games with them and hit .204/.234/.255. Culberson is a beloved clubhouse presence and a fan favorite in Atlanta, but his .250/.292/.390 slash since Opening Day 2019 isn’t much to look at.

  • Paul DeJong (30)

DeJong technically hasn’t played third base in the Majors, but he’s a plus defender at shortstop and could likely handle the hot corner as part of a utility role. He’s a .200/.274/.353 hitter over the past four big league seasons, though.

  • Hunter Dozier (32)

Released by the Royals midway through the third season of a four-year deal back in May, Dozier could sign with any team for only the prorated league minimum. He didn’t sign following his release, however, and carries just a .222/.286/.384 line in 1134 plate appearances since 2021. Dozier was great in 2019 and solid in 2020, but his combined .267/.347/.492 output from that two-year peak is a distant memory in 2023.

  • Josh Harrison (36)

Harrison batted .270/.332/.390 in 1074 plate appearances from 2020-22, but this year’s run with the Phillies resulted in a .204/.263/.291 slash in 114 plate appearances. He can play second base, third base and the outfield corners. He could still draw interest on a minor league deal and compete for a bench job next spring.

  • Tommy La Stella (35)

A productive utilityman from 2016-20, La Stella’s three-year deal with the Giants was torpedoed by injuries. He was released this offseason and signed with the Mariners but only took 24 plate appearances as a DH and pinch-hitter, due to an elbow injury. He’s batted .242/.296/.373 since signing with the Giants in the 2020-21 offseason, battling a torn hamstring, an Achilles injury and that elbow trouble along the way.

  • Mike Moustakas (35)

Moustakas has had somewhat of a rebound season in 2023, simply by virtue of the fact that he’s been healthy enough to stay on the field. This year’s 370 plate appearances are already his most since 2019. Moustakas is hitting .252/.300/.404 with a dozen homers, but most of that damage came while he called Coors Field home. Since being traded from the Rockies to the Angels, he’s posted a .243/.265/.387 line in 263 plate appearances (71 wRC+).

Club Options

  • Eduardo Escobar (35)

Escobar was a productive hitter from 2017-22, with the lone exception of the Covid-shortened 2020 season. He reached 35 homers in the juiced-ball campaign back in 2019 and topped 20 dingers four other times. The 2023 campaign was the second season of his two-year, $20MM deal with the Mets and didn’t go well. The Mets traded him to the Angels after a poor start and paid down all but the minimum on his contract to facilitate the deal. He’s been used sparingly in Anaheim and hasn’t hit well: .224/.263/.327. The Angels aren’t going to pick up this option, and the Mets are responsible for the $500K buyout.

  • Max Muncy (33)

Assuming he logs another 35 plate appearances, Muncy’s $10MM club option will grow to $14MM. There’s no buyout for the team. Proponents of batting average won’t like it, but a $14MM decision is an easy call for the Dodgers to exercise. Muncy is barely north of the Mendoza Line, but he’s walking at an excellent 14.8% clip and hitting for more power than ever before. He’s already tied his career-high with 35 homers in just 515 plate appearances. Overall, he’s hitting .208/.332/.492.

Player Option

  • Justin Turner (39)

Turner has only logged 57 innings at third base in 2023, though that’s in part due to the presence of Rafael Devers in Boston. Still, defensive grades on him dipped during his final years with the Dodgers, and he’ll turn 39 in November, so it’s hard to assume a rebound. He’s spent some time at second base and first base this year, plus plenty of time at designated hitter.

There might be questions about Turner’s defensive outlook, but there’s no questioning his bat. He’s hitting .283/.354/.475 (121 wRC+) with 23 home runs, an 8.6% walk rate and 16.8% strikeout rate. Turner has become the embodiment of the “professional hitter” classification, and with such a hefty buyout on that player option, he should have no time toppling a net $6.7MM in free agency.

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

2023-24 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

46 comments

Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Second Base

By Anthony Franco | September 12, 2023 at 8:59pm CDT

With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.

We’ve already covered the catchers and first basemen. Today, we move to the keystone. It’s a weak infield class in general and that’s reflected in the second base group. There are players at other positions who could ostensibly move to second base. Virtually every shortstop is capable of playing the less demanding middle infield spot, for instance. Those players will be covered in future positional previous, though, so we’ll limit this list to players who have logged some action at second base this season.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Potential Everyday Options

  • Amed Rosario (28)

Rosario has been a shortstop for the bulk of his career, but the Dodgers have played him more frequently at second base since adding him at the deadline. One of the youngest players in the entire free agent class, Rosario hits the market coming off a down year. He was a roughly league average hitter from 2021-22 but has slumped to a .261/.302/.377 line over 516 plate appearances. He’s hitting for more power in Los Angeles than he had in Cleveland — largely because the Dodgers have more selectively deployed him in favorable platoon situations — but has reached base at just a .288 clip with L.A.

The righty-swinging Rosario has performed well against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He’s a well below-average offensive player versus righties. Some teams may prefer to keep him in more of a short side platoon role, but the middle infield class is weak enough that he figures to land an everyday job somewhere. Public metrics pegged Rosario as one of the sport’s worst defensive shortstops; he has rated more favorably at second base, though it’s tough to put much stock in a 153-inning sample.

  • Whit Merrifield (35)

Merrifield’s contract contains an $18MM mutual option with a $500K buyout. The Jays are very likely to decline their end, sending the veteran back to free agency. A three-time All-Star and two-time hits leader, Merrifield is one of the game’s better contact hitters. While he’s no longer performing at peak level, he owns a solid .281/.324/.396 slash with 11 homers through 549 plate appearances. He has kept his strikeouts to a modest 16.6% clip. He’s a fine defender at second base and can play the corner outfield.

The league has increasingly devalued the hit-first second base profile to which Merrifield belongs, however. Players like Jean Segura (over two years) and Adam Frazier (one year) received annual salaries in the $8MM – 8.5MM range last offseason. Merrifield’s platform year is more in line with Segura’s than Frazier’s, so he has a decent case for a two-year pact despite his age.

  • Adam Frazier (32)

Speaking of Frazier, he has rebounded somewhat from his down 2022 campaign. After hitting .238/.301/.311 a season ago, he owns a .248/.304/.415 slash through 409 plate appearances with the Orioles this year. His 13 home runs are a career high, and while he has added a moderate amount of swing-and-miss as a tradeoff, he’s still keeping his strikeouts to a tidy 13.4% clip.

Yet Frazier’s overall production has hovered around replacement level this year, largely thanks to a sharp drop in his defensive metrics. While Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast had each rated him as an average or slightly above-average second baseman for the majority of his career, they’ve soured on his work in 2023. Statcast metrics indicate that Frazier has particularly struggled on balls hit up the middle, perhaps related to a drop in his throwing velocities from the keystone. Whether teams feel that’s a blip or a more worrisome indication of dwindling athleticism as he gets into his 30s could determine whether he matches last winter’s $8MM deal.

Multi-Positional Types

  • Elvis Andrus (35)

Andrus has gotten into 98 games for the White Sox this season. It hasn’t gone all that well, as he’s hitting .251/.311/.353 with five longballs across 355 plate appearances. That’s more in line with the numbers he posted from 2018-21, making last year’s 17-homer showing look like a blip. Andrus is still a good baserunner and can play either middle infield spot, but he’s better suited for a utility role than regular playing time at this stage of his career.

  • Enrique Hernández (32)

Hernández had a brutal start to the season, struggling to adjust to the Red Sox pushing him into regular shortstop run. He is better suited for the utility role he’s played throughout his career, logging most of his action at second base or in center field. The right-handed hitter was amidst a second straight well below-average offensive season when Boston traded him to the Dodgers a couple weeks before the deadline. He has turned things around in Southern California, hitting .266/.331/.435 in 139 plate appearances since the swap. The Dodgers acquired Hernández in hopes of bolstering their production against left-handed pitching, but he’s been far better against righties than lefties in that minuscule post-trade sample.

  • Tony Kemp (32)

Kemp is a contact-hitting second baseman who can also play left field. He was a solid regular for the A’s from 2021-22 before a down ’23 campaign. He’s hitting just .214/.309/.307 across 389 trips to the dish this season. That’s in large part a reflection of an unsustainably poor .227 average on balls in play. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills; he’s one of just four players (Luis Arraez, Ronald Acuña Jr. and José Ramírez being the others) with 300+ plate appearances and more walks than strikeouts. It seems likely he’ll find a guaranteed big league opportunity as a result.

  • Donovan Solano (36)

After barely playing in the majors between 2015-18, Solano has surprisingly put together a five-year run as an above-average hitter late in his career. He has continued on that trajectory for the Twins this season, putting up a .290/.376/.409 line over 402 trips to the plate. Solano is a bat-first utility option who can play either corner infield spot or second base. Even at age 36, he continues to produce and should earn himself a raise on this year’s $2MM salary.

Utility/Depth Players

  • Hanser Alberto (31)

Alberto got into 30 games for the White Sox, hitting .220/.261/.390 in 90 trips to the plate. The right-handed hitter hasn’t caught on since being released by Chicago in early June.

  • Isan Díaz (28)

A one-time top prospect, Díaz is a .177/.267/.274 hitter at the big league level. He has spent the majority of the last two seasons in Triple-A, appearing in eight MLB games this year between the Giants and Tigers. Detroit released him a few weeks ago.

  • Matt Duffy (33)

Duffy cracked the Royals’ roster out of camp after signing a minor league deal. The well-traveled infielder has spent the entire season on the big league club. He’s hitting .254/.309/.312 over 188 trips to the plate, picking up scattered starts at each of first, second and third base.

  • Eduardo Escobar (35)

Escobar has mostly split his playing time between third and second base. The switch-hitting veteran is wrapping up the second season of a two-year free agent pact that didn’t turn out as the Mets had envisioned. Escobar was surpassed on the depth chart by Brett Baty early in the season. The Mets dealt him to the Angels at a time when the Halos were still pushing to compete and decimated by infield injuries. The trade hasn’t worked out, as Escobar is hitting .229/.268/.333 with a 28.1% strikeout rate over 47 games in Orange County.

  • Josh Harrison (36)

Harrison posted a .204/.263/.291 batting line over 41 games with the Phillies this year. Released shortly after the trade deadline, he spent some time in the Rangers’ system but didn’t crack the Texas roster. Harrison opted out of his deal with Texas in late August and has been unsigned since then.

  • Rougned Odor (30)

After an early-career run as the Rangers’ starting second baseman, Odor has played for four clubs since 2020. He’s been a below-average hitter at every stop, showing some power but running consistently low on-base marks. Odor got into 59 games for the Padres this year, putting up a .203/.299/.355 slash before being released in July. He hasn’t signed elsewhere.

  • Jonathan Schoop (32)

A former All-Star, Schoop has hit .204/.248/.311 going back to the start of 2022. While he played Gold Glove caliber defense for the Tigers a season ago, the complete lack of offensive production led Detroit to release him around the All-Star Break. The 11-year MLB veteran hasn’t signed anywhere since, though he is yet to turn 32 and could still find minor league interest if he wants to give it another go.

  • Kolten Wong (33)

Wong had a brutal few months as a Mariner, hitting .165/.241/.227 over 67 games. Seattle released their offseason trade pickup at the beginning of August. He’s playing out the stretch with the Dodgers, getting selected to the MLB roster as part of September expansion after initially inking a minor league deal. Wong’s defensive marks have fallen from his Gold Glove peak and he has been one of the least effective hitters in the majors this year. Yet he was an above-average offensive performer just a season ago, when he hit .251/.339/.430 over 497 plate appearances for Milwaukee.

Player Options

  • Justin Turner (39)

Turner is a near-lock to head back to free agency. His contract with the Red Sox contains a $13.4MM player option with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. With a buyout worth half the option value, it should be an easy call for the two-time All-Star to head back to free agency. He’d surely beat the $6.7MM difference on his next deal.

Clubs probably won’t view Turner as an everyday second base option going into his age-39 season. He has logged 49 innings there this season, though, showing the ability to moonlight up the middle in addition to his more extensive work at the corner infield spots. The team that signs Turner is doing so for his bat, as the consistent veteran owns a .285/.355/.480 slash with 23 homers over 561 trips to the dish.

Club Options

  • Jorge Polanco (30)

It’s unlikely Polanco will get to the open market. The Twins hold a $10.5MM option for next season with a $1MM buyout. The $9.5MM difference is strong value for a quality bat-first middle infielder. The switch-hitting Polanco owns a .260/.341/.461 line on the season. While injuries have kept him to 290 plate appearances, it’s the third straight year in which he’s been a well above-average hitter on a rate basis. Polanco would be the best player in the second base class if he were available. Barring a major injury, he probably won’t be.

* All stats entering play Tuesday

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

2023-24 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

71 comments

Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: First Base

By Steve Adams | September 11, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.

Over the coming weeks, MLBTR will go around the diamond to preview the free agent class. Anthony Franco already took a look at the catching market, and next up will be a rundown of the first base options available this winter.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included for this exercise. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Potential Everyday Options

  • Cody Bellinger (28 years old in 2024); eligible for qualifying offer

Bellinger will be looked at as an outfielder first and foremost, but the general lack of quality bats could lead teams with first base vacancies to consider him as well. The Cubs have given Bellinger 302 innings at the position this season (with positive defensive ratings to show for it), and the recent promotion of top center field prospect prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong could mean even more time there for Bellinger in the final few weeks.

Non-tendered by the Dodgers last year, Bellinger has enjoyed a hugely successful rebound with the Cubs. In 479 plate appearances, the former NL MVP has posted a huge .318/.361/.551 batting line with 25 home runs, 20 stolen bases and a career-low 15.9% strikeout rate. He’s walking at the lowest rate of his career (6.7%) and chasing balls out of the strike zone far more than he did at his peak. However, he’s also sporting career-high contact rates on pitches off the plate (72.3%) and pitches within the strike zone (86.9%).

Bellinger’s ability to the play the outfield is valuable enough that it’s hard to imagine a team signing him to play exclusively first base, but teams are more willing than ever to move players around the diamond based on matchups. Bellinger has hit so well — even with lackluster quality-of-contact marks on Statcast — that teams will likely be willing to move some pieces around just to get his bat in the lineup.

  • Jeimer Candelario (30); ineligible for qualifying offer (traded midseason)

Candelario has primarily played third base this season, and he’s drawn quality marks for his glovework there. The Cubs have given him ample run at first base since acquiring him, however. And as with Bellinger, some teams may simply want to sign the bat — even if it means playing Candelario at a less-demanding position on the defensive spectrum.

The last two weeks have seen Candelario fall into his most prolonged slump of the season. He’s gone just 5-for-52 over his past 17 games. That’s taken a bit of the shine off an otherwise excellent rebound season, but the switch-hitter was batting .272/.355/.495 as recently as Aug. 23 and still sports a comfortably above-average .253/.338/.473 slash (118 wRC+) overall this season.

Although Candelario’s 2022 season was rough enough to get him non-tendered by the Tigers, he’s bounced back in a big way and now has three well above-average offensive seasons in the past four years. This will likely be his second season with at least three wins above replacement in the past three years, and Candelario was on pace to easily eclipse that mark in the shortened 2020 season as well.

  • Rhys Hoskins (31); eligible for qualifying offer

Hoskins would likely have been one of the top power bats on the market with a healthy 2023 season, but things of course did not pan out that way. The 30-year-old followed last season’s six postseason home runs with a huge spring training … but saw his platform free-agent year end before it began when he suffered a torn ACL just a week before the season began.

While he doesn’t quite match Khris Davis levels of freakish consistency, Hoskins batted exactly .246 or .247 and belted between 27 and 34 home runs in four of the five seasons from 2018-22. He hit .241/.350/.483 with 130 home runs, a hefty 13.2% walk rate and a 24.1% strikeout rate that’s higher than average but also a good bit lower than many sluggers of this ilk tend to produce.

As one would expect, the righty-swinging Hoskins is better against left-handers than against right-handers, but he’s posted considerably better-than-average OBP and power numbers against each. There’ll surely be some various, creative contract structures discussed. We’ve seen fellow Scott Boras clients take various paths in recent years; Bellinger signed a straight one-year deal with the Cubs after a down season, whereas Michael Conforto inked a two-year, $36MM deal with a conditional opt-out (contingent on reach 350 plate appearances) after he, like Hoskins in 2023, missed the entire 2022 season due to injury.

He isn’t a great defensive first baseman, but a healthy Hoskins might be the best pure slugger not named Shohei Ohtani in this winter’s free-agent class.

  • Carlos Santana (38)

Perhaps it’s a stretch to call Santana a potential everyday option when he’ll turn 38 next year and is wrapping up a below-average offensive season on the whole. But the Pirates and Brewers have both given him plenty of playing time, and Santana still grades out as a strong defensive option at his position. He’s still drawing walks at a 10.4% clip and has never posted a walk rate south of 10%. He’s currently sitting on 19 home runs, which would be his third straight season with exactly that total.

Santana’s .251 average on balls in play looks like a product of poor luck at first glance, but he’s hit a whopping 26 infield flies this season. He’s long been prone to pop-ups, which helps to explain his career .258 BABIP. Still, even if there’s no reason to expect a rapid turnaround on his luck on balls in play, Santana is a good defensive first baseman who walks enough to post close to an average OBP and who clearly still has 20-homer pop. A contender might not plug him in at first base, but if a rebuilding team looking for a veteran to flip at the deadline — just as the Pirates did this season — could view him as a potential regular.

Platoon and Part-Time Bats

  • Brandon Belt (36)

The former Giants cornerstone has had a resurgent year in Toronto, hitting .252/.371/.473 with 16 home runs in 380 plate appearances. Belt only has 36 plate appearances against lefties — they haven’t gone well — but has tattooed right-handed pitching. This year’s 34.7% strikeout rate is a glaring red flag, but Belt has also walked at a massive 15.8% rate. Belt will turn 36 next April, so expect a one- or two-year deal, but he’s shown there’s still plenty of power left in his bat.

  • Ji Man Choi (33)

The 2023 season has been one Choi would like to forget. After undergoing elbow surgery in the offseason, he suffered a strained Achilles tendon early in the year and wound up missing about three months of action. Choi played in just 23 games with the Pirates before being traded to the Padres, and after seven games in San Diego he suffered a Lisfranc injury in his foot and returned to the injured list. Choi is hitting just .179/.239/.440 in 92 plate appearances, but from 2017-22 he posted a .245/.350/.436 output. He’s never hit lefties well, but he’s a .244/.350/.455 hitter against right-handed pitching.

  • Garrett Cooper (33)

Cooper’s consistent productivity has always flown under the radar, in part because he’s spent most of his career playing for non-contending teams in Miami and also in part because he’s frequently been injured. This hasn’t been his best year (.256/.300/.420, 16 homers), but Cooper hit .274/.350/.444 in 1273 plate appearances from 2017-22 and carries a lifetime .270/.337/.435 line in the majors. His occasional dalliances in the outfield haven’t drawn good reviews, but Cooper has above-average marks at first base, both in his career and in 2023.

  • C.J. Cron (34)

The former 30-homer slugger has been out since mid-August due to a back injury and also missed six weeks earlier in the season with a neck injury. He hasn’t had his best season when healthy, hitting .252/.299/.441 in 274 plate appearances. He’d been heating up at the plate, however, batting .287/.333/.470 in 123 plate appearances between those two IL stints. It’s been a tough year, but Cron hit .260/.331/.490 with 116 home runs from 2018-22. Between his track record and the lack of quality hitters on the market, he’ll get a big league deal and regular time at first base and designated hitter somewhere.

  • Joey Gallo (30)

Gallo is athletic enough to handle any outfield position, but a Twins’ team deep in options on the grass has given him 322 innings at first base. He’s a solid defensive first baseman but hasn’t found his old All-Star form offensively. Gallo had a strong first couple weeks in the Twin Cities but has slumped since May and now carries a .177/.301/.440 line over 332 plate appearances. The sub-Mendoza average is nothing new, but this year’s 42.8% strikeout rate is high even by Gallo’s standards. He has hit 21 homers and walked at a huge 14.5% clip, leading to a roughly average wRC+ figure (103). That’s still not the bounceback the Minnesota front office envisioned when guaranteeing him $11MM last winter.

  • Donovan Solano (36)

Solano’s out-of-nowhere emergence as a quality big league hitter after signing a minor league deal with the Giants heading into his age-31 season remains remarkable. He’s not slowing down in 2023. The Twins inked him to a one-year, $2MM deal that’s proven to be a bargain, as he’s slashed .292/.377/.415 with five homers while playing first base, second base and third base. He should get a raise to fill a similar multi-positional role with a team in 2024.

Rebound Hopefuls and Depth options

  • Jesus Aguilar (34)

The A’s signed Aguilar to a one-year deal but released him in June after 115 plate appearances of well below-average production. He’s since signed a minor league deal with the Braves and is hitting .287/.393/.410 in Triple-A. The days of Aguilar looking like a genuine power threat might be behind us, but he’ll still draw interest on a minor league deal.

  • Kole Calhoun (35)

Calhoun posted a .906 OPS in Triple-A between the Dodgers and Yankees organizations before an August trade to Cleveland resulted in an immediate call to the MLB roster. He entered the year with just 44 innings at first base in his career but has already logged 192 with the Guardians, while hitting .241/.325/.398 in 123 plate appearances. Calhoun hit .208/.269/.343 in 606 plate appearances from 2021-22, but he’s been a roughly average hitter this year and has plenty of experience in the outfield corners as well.

  • Yuli Gurriel (40)

Gurriel was a fixture in the Astros’ lineup from 2016-22 but had to settle for a minor league deal with the Marlins this offseason on the heels of down year in his final year with Houston. He’s now posted a .244/.294/.359 line in his past 892 plate appearances and will turn 40 next June.

  • Eric Hosmer (34)

Hosmer signed a big league deal with the Cubs after being released by the Red Sox this winter but wasn’t able to produce in 100 plate appearances before being released a second time in late May. He’s been unsigned since. Any team can sign Hosmer and only owe him the league minimum for any time on the big league roster, as the Padres are still paying the bulk of his contract, which runs through 2025. He’s hit .266/.331/.384 in his past 1084 trips to the plate.

  • Jake Lamb (33)

The former D-backs third baseman broke camp with the Angels after signing a minor league deal but appeared in only 19 games before being designated for assignment and released. Lamb popped 59 homers with Arizona from 2016-17, but shoulder injuries tanked that promising trajectory. He’s a .205/.306/.359 hitter in his past 898 MLB plate appearances (2018-23).

  • Trey Mancini (32)

Mancini’s two-year deal with the Cubs didn’t work out for either party this winter. He hit .234/.299/.336 in 263 plate appearances — the most tepid production of his career to date. The Cubs are paying Mancini’s $7MM salary next year, so any team can sign him and only owe the league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster. His 35-homer campaign in 2019 is a distant memory, but Mancini is a beloved clubhouse presence who hit .247/.323/.412 from 2021-22 after his inspirational return from colon cancer.

  • Mike Moustakas (35)

Released by the Reds heading into the final season of his four-year, $64MM deal, Moustakas caught on with the Rockies and hit well enough to merit trade attention from the Angels. His bat has tailed off since. The once-formidable slugger has batted .228/.294/.377 over his past 855 MLB plate appearances.

  • Wil Myers (33)

Myers is the third straight player on this list to be released by the Reds this season. (Mancini briefly signed a minor league deal there after being cut loose by the Cubs.) His one-year, $7.5MM deal didn’t pan out as hoped. Myers hit just .189/.257/.283 in 141 plate appearances, striking out at a 34% clip. He’s a capable outfielder in addition to his work at first base and hit .256/.334/.434 with 17 homers as recently as 2021. He hasn’t signed since being released and might have to take a minor league deal this winter.

  • Darin Ruf (37)

Ruf can crush lefties (career .270/.368/.512, 141 wRC+), but he appeared in just 20 games this season due to injury and sluggish performance. He was a terrific find for the 2020-21 Giants, but he turned 37 in July and has now had consecutive below-average seasons at the plate.

Player Options

  • Josh Bell (31), $16.5MM player option; ineligible for qualifying offer (traded midseason)

Bell looked like a lock to exercise his player option not long ago, but he’s been on a tear since being traded from Cleveland to Miami and may have planted the seeds for that turnaround even earlier than the swap itself. He’s been hitting fly-balls at the highest rates of his career since early June, and the results have been noticeable. The switch-hitter is batting .276/.340/.515 in 148 plate appearances with the Fish and now carries a .262/.322/.472 output in his past 339 plate appearances.

There’s still a chance, if not a likelihood, that Bell will exercise his player option. But he’s been producing at a decidedly above-average level for more than three months now. It’s the inverse of last year’s season, wherein Bell had a productive run with the Nationals but slumped late in his tenure there and cratered following a trade to the Padres. Bell still secured a two-year, $33MM deal on the heels of that season, and while he probably won’t match his current AAV on a multi-year deal in free agency, it’s increasingly feasible to see him declining that player option and signing a multi-year deal with a larger total and lower AAV.

  • Justin Turner (39), $13.4MM player option with a $6.7MM buyout; ineligible for qualifying offer (has previously received a QO in his career)

Whether a team would install Turner as its everyday first baseman isn’t clear, but the Red Sox have given him 249 innings there in 2023. At the very least, he could presumably handle multiple infield spots and log ample time at DH with a new team.

There might be questions about Turner’s defensive outlook at this point, but there’s no questioning his bat. He continues to age like fine wine at the plate, hitting .285/.355/.480 (122 wRC+) with 23 home runs, an 8.4% walk rate and 16.9% strikeout rate. Turner bas become the embodiment of the “professional hitter” classification, and with such a hefty buyout on that player option, he should have no time toppling a net $6.7MM in free agency.

Age is going to limit Turner to a one- or two-year deal, but he’s one of the best hitters on the market and should command a strong annual rate of pay with a contending team.

Club Option

  • Joey Votto (40), $20MM club option with a $7MM buyout

Votto told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer earlier this month that he hasn’t made any decisions on his future. Only 40 qualified hitters in MLB history have gotten on base at a higher clip than Votto’s career mark of .410, but he’s followed up a staggering 2021 renaissance (.266/.375/.563, 36 homers in 129 games) with a .204/.313/.405 slash in his past two seasons — a total of 575 plate appearances.

The Reds will surely buy Votto out rather than pay him a net $13MM for his age-40 season, but if the Canadian-born slugger wants to continue his playing career, doing so in Cincinnati will remain high on his list. Whether he earnestly fields interest from other teams remains to be seen, but his track record, plate discipline and power — he hit 14 homers in 199 plate appearances this year — would likely gather interest on a one-year deal.

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

2023-24 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

39 comments

Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Catcher

By Anthony Franco | September 11, 2023 at 11:57pm CDT

With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.

Over the coming weeks, MLBTR will go around the diamond to preview the free agent class. As always, we’ll start behind the plate. It’s a thin group, with no one in the class a threat to approach the five-year, $87.5MM contract that Willson Contreras received a season ago.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included for this exercise.

Potential Regulars/Platoon Options

  • Mitch Garver (33*)

Garver could prove a tricky evaluation for teams. He’s having the best season of any impending free agent who can catch. The right-handed hitter is mashing at a .286/.387/.541 clip with 16 home runs over 270 plate appearances for the Rangers. He slugged 31 homers for the Twins back in 2019 and is a career .254/.343/.489 hitter. A fully healthy Garver is one of the best offensive catchers in the sport and easily the best player in this winter’s free agent catching class.

Fully healthy is a notable caveat, however. Not only will Garver turn 33 this winter, he has a lengthy injury history. He has spent some time on the IL in every season since 2019 and required season-ending surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in 2022. That injury affected Garver’s throwing even before he went under the knife, and Texas has eased him back to catching action. He has logged only 230 innings behind the dish this season, seeing more time as a designated hitter. The Rangers have that luxury thanks to the presence of All-Star backstop Jonah Heim, but it raises questions for teams evaluating whether Garver will hold up as a true #1 elsewhere.

  • Gary Sánchez (31)

Sánchez has never returned to his early-career Yankees form. He’s nevertheless coming off a decent bounceback showing for the Padres, hitting .218/.292/.500 with 19 homers through 260 plate appearances after landing in San Diego. His much-maligned blocking drew an average grade from Statcast this season, while he threw out baserunners at an acceptable 20.8% clip. The year ended on a sour note when Sánchez sustained a right wrist fracture on a hit-by-pitch last week, but it was a reasonably encouraging effort overall.

While he’s not a star, Sánchez looks like an acceptable #1 catcher. He’s a power-first offensive player with middling on-base marks. One of the younger players in the class, he has a case for a multi-year contract after settling for a minor league pact a season ago.

  • Tom Murphy (33)

Murphy has mashed in a small sample this year, hitting .290/.335/.538 over 159 plate appearances. He has shown significant offensive upside in prior seasons — highlighted by a .273/.324/.535 line over 76 games in 2019 — but only has two years in which he has reached 200+ plate appearances. Murphy lost all of 2020 with a foot fracture, a good chunk of last season to a dislocated shoulder, and has been out for the past month with a sprained left thumb.

When healthy, he consistently shows plus power from the right-handed batter’s box. He strikes out a lot but brings more offensive upside than most players at the position. At age 33, he’ll be limited to one or two-year offers, but he should be a target for teams that can pair him with a more stable veteran to compensate for the injury risk.

  • Víctor Caratini (30)

Caratini is a switch-hitting backstop with good strike zone awareness and solid contact skills. He hits the ball reasonably hard but makes most of his contact on the ground, muting his power impact. This year’s .247/.327/.368 line over 54 games for the Brewers is in line with his career track record. He rates as a decent pitch framer but has a well below-average throwing arm. While Caratini doesn’t have a standout skill, he’s a reasonably well-rounded player and the youngest option in the catching class.

  • Yasmani Grandal (35)

Grandal was still performing at an All-Star level as recently as 2021. The final two years of his $73MM free agent deal with the White Sox didn’t go as planned. He limped to a .202/.301/.269 line last season and is hitting .236/.309/.345 over 388 plate appearances this year. He’s a switch-hitter who still draws a decent number of walks, but he hasn’t shown the same kind of power he had at his peak.

  • Austin Hedges (31)

Hedges is an all-glove veteran who has found semi-regular run despite one of the league’s least imposing offensive profiles. He was an everyday catcher for three years in Cleveland and got into 65 games for the Pirates after signing a $5MM free agent deal last winter. The Rangers have pushed him into a depth role since acquiring him at the deadline.

The 31-year-old is hitting .176/.229/.222 through 203 plate appearances. He has had a hard time controlling the running game this season but has been excellent in that regard in prior years. Hedges’ elite receiving skills have not waned. Statcast rates him 11 runs above average as a pitch framer and credits him with eight more blocks than average. That’s in line with his career-long reputation as an elite receiver, and both Cleveland and Pittsburgh trusted him as their top catcher to work with fairly young pitching staffs.

  • Martín Maldonado (37)

Maldonado is a beloved clubhouse presence in Houston. The Astros have continued to give him a starting workload on a World Series contender despite dismal offensive numbers, reasoning that his unquantifiable work with the pitching staff compensates for the lack of productivity at the dish. Maldonado has hit only .187/.254/.337 through 366 trips to the plate. He has occasional power but consistently poor on-base marks. Unlike Hedges, Maldonado has a well below-average grade from Statcast for his 2023 pitch framing. It hasn’t dissuaded Dusty Baker from keeping him in the lineup, though — a testament to how the coaching staff feels about his leadership and game-calling acumen.

Backups/Depth

  • Jorge Alfaro (31)

A longtime top prospect who was a key piece in multiple blockbuster trades (Cole Hamels, J.T. Realmuto), the now-30-year-old Alfaro (31 next June) has never developed into the slugger that many expected. Alfaro posted a solid .269/.322/.429 batting line from 2017-19, but in 737 plate appearances since that time he’s at .236/.278/.354 with a glaring 33.6% strikeout rate. Alfaro has typically thrown well (28% caught-stealing rate), but he’s at 18% in Triple-A this year. Statcast grades him last among 75 qualified catchers since 2018 when it comes to blocking pitches in the dirt.

  • Tucker Barnhart (33)

Barnhart has spent the past week in Triple-A with the Dodgers. He signed a minor league pact with L.A. after being released by the Cubs in the first season of a two-year, $6.5MM free agent deal. The two-time Gold Glove winner managed only a .202/.285/.257 line over 123 plate appearances with Chicago and is a .215/.286/.264 hitter since being traded from the Reds to the Tigers over the 2021-22 offseason. Despite the tepid offense, Barnhart should draw depth interest based on his glove and reputation as a strong clubhouse presence — especially since the Cubs are responsible for all but the league minimum on next year’s salary as well.

  • Curt Casali (35)

The Reds are likely to opt for a $750K buyout on their end of a $4MM mutual option. The right-handed hitting Casali has operated as the third catcher in Cincinnati when healthy, batting .175/.290/.200 over 96 plate appearances. He is currently on a rehab stint working back from a July foot contusion.

  • Sandy León (35)

León, currently in Triple-A with the Guardians, appeared in 22 games for the Rangers early in the season. The switch-hitting backstop is a classic journeyman depth catcher. He has gotten to the majors in each of the past 12 years. He’s a well-regarded defender who has hit .176/.254/.261 for five teams since the start of 2019.

  • Luke Maile (33)

Maile signed a $1.175MM free agent deal with his hometown Reds last winter. He has essentially played at the level they’d expected as their backup, putting up a .234/.305/.392 line through 175 plate appearances. He has roughly average framing and blocking numbers and has cut down a quarter of opposing basestealers. He has probably done enough to secure another major league contract this offseason.

  • Roberto Pérez (35)

Pérez won consecutive Gold Glove awards in 2019-20. He has continued to get looks based on his defense, but injuries have kept him off the field for most of the last two seasons. He suffered a season-ending hamstring tear in May 2022. He was capped at five games with the Giants this year before tearing the rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder, necessitating another surgery in April. He’ll likely be limited to minor league offers as a result.

  • Manny Piña (37)

Piña had a few seasons as a productive depth option with the Brewers. Unfortunately, left wrist issues have essentially robbed him of the last two years. He underwent surgery after just five games in 2022. Piña started this year back on the injured list with continued soreness. He returned for four games this summer but Oakland released him around the trade deadline as they evaluated their younger catching options.

  • Mike Zunino (33)

Zunino signed a $6MM contract with the Guardians a year ago on the heels of thoracic outlet surgery. He couldn’t recapture his pre-surgery form on either side of the ball. Zunino hit .177/.271/.306 with a 43.6% strikeout rate in 140 plate appearances. Perhaps even more concerning was that he struggled mightily as a receiver and threw out only 16.7% of baserunners. Cleveland released him in late June and he has remained a free agent since then.

Club Options

  • Yan Gomes (36)

The Cubs hold a $6MM option that comes with a $1MM buyout. It’s a $5MM call, which seems reasonable after Gomes’ decent 2023 showing. The 12-year MLB veteran is hitting .269/.311/.414 with nine home runs through 360 trips to the plate. He hasn’t rated highly for his receiving but has thrown out an above-average 26.4% of attempted basestealers. The Cubs may look to turn the top catching job over to rookie Miguel Amaya, but it’s a low enough price point that the team could still retain Gomes as a veteran backup.

Player Options

  • Omar Narváez (32)

Narváez is unlikely to hit free agency. His contract with the Mets contains a $7MM player option. The left-handed hitter has slumped to a .192/.272/.253 line in 39 games, missing a chunk of the year with a calf strain. Unsurprisingly, he told Will Sammon of the Athletic last month that he expects to exercise the option rather than retest free agency on the heels of such a tough season.

* Listed ages are the player’s age for the 2024 season.

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

2023-24 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

54 comments

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Lawlar, Miller

By Brad Johnson | September 11, 2023 at 7:12pm CDT

A hearty welcome to Pete Crow-Armstrong. We discussed his case for promotion last week. Though he had seven hits in 10 plate appearances over the weekend, this promotion is all about his glove. Anything he adds with his bat is gravy.

We’ll cover more recent and potential call-ups in today’s edition of Big Hype Prospects.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 520 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .326/.444/.504

As I noted last week, Holliday’s promotion to Triple-A means we finally get access to public exit velocities. Those go a long way to influencing when a prospect earns his first promotion to the Majors. His 89.6 mph average and 103.7 mph max EVs in 30 plate appearances aren’t particularly impressive. They suggest the Orioles are better off with their existing middle infielders. Overall, he’s hitting just .200/.333/.280 in Triple-A. One silver lining, he’s posted more walks than strikeouts. Of course, we’re also talking about a tiny sample. That should go without saying.
Before anyone frets about his lack of pop in 30 plate appearances, an acquaintance was nice enough to pass along his Double-A data. His 109.7 mph max EV is excellent for a 19-year-old at any level. The chart I received doesn’t list an average, but it’s visually somewhere between 90 and 93 mph – also excellent.

Junior Caminero, 20, 3B/SS, TBR (AA)
(A+/AA) 486 PA, 30 HR, 5 SB, .330/.391/.604

Wander Franco left the Rays in a tough spot, relying on the soft-hitting Taylor Walls and Osleivis Basabe to handle shortstop. Caminero represents a “go-for-power” alternative. Though he mostly plays third base these days, that decision was at least partly in deference to his expected future role. Caminero might not be much of a downgrade defensively – Walls isn’t exactly a superstar defender. Caminero is still athletic enough to cover shortstop at present. Since August 25, he batted .354/.436/.917 with eight home runs in 55 plate appearances.

Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450

An injury to Adolis Garcia opened the door for Carter to join the Rangers roster. He was reportedly already under consideration, the injury merely turned “when” to “now.” Oft-compared to Brandon Nimmo (they’re eerily similar), Carter plays within himself. Not all scouts appreciate this – the current meta is all about chasing extreme outcomes. In particular, he looks like he should be able to hit for power, but he maximizes for on base percentage rather than slugging. That’s just the first of many commonalities with Nimmo. The Rangers have a reputation for forcing their prospects to produce pulled, fly ball contact. That Carter reached the Majors despite eschewing organizational preferences suggests there’s an interesting behind-the-scenes tale to tell.

Jordan Lawlar, 21, SS, ARI (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 490 PA, 20 HR, 36 SB, .278/.378/.496

Questions about Lawlar’s hit tool mostly fly under the radar thanks to heady results and plus shortstop defense. He’s considered one of the best athletes in the sport. The most optimistic scouts consider him a 70 overall on the 20-80 scale. Aside from consistency of contact, Lawlar offers the total package. He’s an above-average runner, fields and throws well, and already flashes 30 homer upside as part of a discipline-forward approach. Though he’s not as extreme as Anthony Volpe, there’s a chance Lawlar’s early outcomes follow a similar track.

Mason Miller, 25, SP, OAK (MLB)
23.1 IP, 9.64 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.09 ERA

Miller returned from injury on September 6. He’s scheduled to make his first start since April on Monday. A hard-thrower with a limited repertoire and a long injury history, Miller has rare potential to overpower Major League hitters. Developed as a starter, evaluators remain split on his ultimate role. A proactive conversion to relief could help to lengthen his career – or at least improve his effectiveness. As a starter, the range of outcomes looks something like Tyler Glasnow to Michael Kopech with a real chance that he’s usually too hurt to contribute.

Three More

Jackson Ferris, CHC (19): I knew there was a fifth Jackson I forgot last week. Ferris is the also-ran among the prominent Jacksons in baseball, but he still tracks as a potential Top 100 prospect within the coming years. The southpaw has a repertoire of four average or better offerings backed by presently poor command. He’s posted a 3.38 ERA with 12.38 K/9, 5.30 BB/9, and a 53.4 percent ground ball rate in Low-A.

Brooks Lee (22): The Twins are relatively deep in the middle infield or else Lee would be on the shortlist for a promotion. He’s a well-rounded player who lacks standout tools or notable shortcomings. He’s posted above-MLB-average EVs in Triple-A.

Luisangel Acuna, NYM (21): Since joining the Mets organization, Acuna has cut his swinging strike rate nearly in half. He also cut his power in half. The net result is a sharp decline in offensive value. For now, this has the look of a step back for (hopefully) two steps forward.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Evan Carter Jackson Holliday Jordan Lawlar Junior Caminero Mason Miller

28 comments

The New Fernando Tatis Jr.

By Nick Deeds | September 10, 2023 at 10:08pm CDT

Just over a year ago, MLB announced that Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. had been suspended for 80 games after testing positive for Clostebol, a banned performance-enhancing substance. The announcement came as Tatis was on the cusp of making his 2022 season debut after undergoing wrist surgery in March of that year due to a fractured wrist sustained during an offseason motorcycle accident.

The news shook the baseball world, as it was the first time a star player in his prime had been suspended for PED usage since Ryan Braun nearly a decade earlier. A whirlwind of controversy surrounded Tatis throughout the 2022 campaign and in the lead up to his return to the field back in April. Since then, however, Tatis has fallen into the background as discourse surrounding the Padres quickly began to focus on their disappointing season. Down years from Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Yu Darvish captured most of the focus around the baseball world, as well as the strong performances the club has received from Blake Snell, Juan Soto, and Ha-Seong Kim.

Though Tatis hasn’t been at the forefront of most fans’ minds this season, we’re getting a glimpse of what the now-24 year old looks like as a player in the wake of his lost season last year. While he hasn’t been the perennial-MVP candidate he looked to be in his first three seasons as a big leaguer, Tatis has put together a radically different profile this year that nonetheless should keep him in the conversation as one of the best everyday regulars in the sport.

From his debut in 2019 until the 2021 campaign that saw him appear in his first career All Star game and finish third in NL MVP voting, Tatis was the prototypical young superstar. A shortstop with speed and power, Tatis featured the best ISO, the second best wRC+, and the third best fWAR total among MLB regulars during his first three seasons as a big leaguer. Meanwhile, Statcast indicates the youngster boasted sprint speeds and barrel rates in the 95th percentile or better in each of those seasons, clearly indicating he was elite in both respects. On the other side of things, Tatis had a significant problem with strikeouts. His 27.6% strikeout rate in the first three seasons of his career was the 19th-highest among MLB regulars, higher than the likes of Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler.

Flash forward to 2023, and almost all of these things have changed. Most obviously, Tatis is no longer a shortstop; both Bogaerts and Kim have supplanted San Diego’s $340MM man on the infield depth chart, prompting Tatis to move into a regular role in the outfield. He’s played right field almost exclusively this year, with four games in center and a one-inning cameo at second base representing his only appearances elsewhere on the diamond. While Tatis’s glove may have slid down the defensive hierarchy in 2023, his value on defense has soared. Tatis was worth -10 Outs Above Average and -9 Defensive Runs Saved as a shortstop in his first three seasons in the majors, leaving him well below average at the position.

By contrast, Tatis’s aforementioned move to the outfield has seen him not only provide positive value with his glove, but become one of the best defensive players in the sport this year. Tatis ranks in the 96th percentile with a +12 OAA in 2023, a figure bested by zero outfielders and only eight players at any position this season. Meanwhile, his +23 DRS makes him the second most valuable fielder in all of baseball this year by that metric, outclassed by only Daulton Varsho’s +26 figure.

While Tatis’s defense has shown this season, his offense has taken a considerable hit. Overall on the season, he’s slashed just .257/.321/.455 in 558 trips to the plate. While that’s still good for a well above average wRC+ of 115, it pales in comparison to the 154 figure he entered the 2023 campaign with for his career. That drop in offensive production comes almost exclusively from a relative power outage. Tatis has hit just 23 homers this season, a far cry from his 2021 season where he slammed 42 dingers in less trips to the plate than he’s taken this year. His once-lofty ISO that was second to only Shohei Ohtani in 2021 has dropped to just .198 this year. That figure is barely enough to crack the top 50, putting him alongside the likes of Justin Turner and Willson Contreras rather than Ohtani and Matt Olson.

That being said, it hasn’t been all bad for Tatis on the offensive side of things. His speed is as elite as ever, clocking in with a 95th percentile sprint speed per Statcast. Meanwhile, he’s 25-for-29 on the bases, and figure identical to his 2021 total. What’s more, he’s seen considerable improvements in his strikeout rate. He’s punching out in just 21.7% of his plate appearances this year, a figure that puts him in line with hitters like Francisco Lindor, Jeimer Candelario and Josh Bell and pushes him to better than league average in terms of strikeouts for the first time in his career.

That improvement in strikeouts is thanks to Tatis posting the highest full-season contact rate of his career, as he’s made contact on 71.4% of his swings compared to 68.4% for his career entering his season. Unfortunately, he’s also swinging more than he did in his first three seasons. While he entered 2023 swinging at less than half of the pitches he’s seen in his career (49.1%), that figure has jumped to 54.3% in 2023. While that isn’t necessarily a problem, those additional swings are primarily occurring outside the strike zone: after swinging at 32% of pitches seen outside of the zone from 2019-21, he’s swinging at 36.1% of those same pitches this year. Given that, it’s hardly a surprise he’s posting the lowest barrel rate of his career (11.9%) despite a Hard-Hit rate that’s largely in line with his career norms.

Only time will tell if Tatis will be able to recapture his elite power stroke in the future by swinging less often outside of the strike zone. Fortunately for the Padres, though, Tatis remains an immensely valuable player even if his 2023 performance with the bat is his new normal. Tatis has been worth 4.0 fWAR and 5.0 rWAR this season. That fWAR figure puts him in the same ballpark as quality players like Soto, Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger this year, while his rWAR is the eighth-highest total in the NL this season. With 11 more years left on Tatis’s megadeal with the Padres, it’s surely a relief to A.J. Preller’s front office that the player they’ll be paying through his age-35 season can still play at an All Star-caliber level, even if he’s no longer be the 40-homer shortstop he was in 2021.

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

MLBTR Originals San Diego Padres Fernando Tatis Jr.

103 comments

The Dodgers Grabbed An Elite Closer Off Waivers

By Anthony Franco | September 9, 2023 at 10:55pm CDT

There are myriad reasons for the Dodgers’ decade-long run of excellence. They’ve added elite players via trade (Mookie Betts) and free agency (Freddie Freeman). Their strong player development pipeline has allowed them to consistently supplement their high-payroll, star-laden roster with controllable talent.

As with any good team, the Dodgers have also hit on less visible acquisitions. Jason Heyward has looked reinvigorated after cracking the L.A. roster following an offseason minor league pact. Ryan Brasier and Shelby Miller have turned in solid results in the middle innings since being acquired at little cost. None of those have been as impactful as the August 2021 waiver claim of right-hander Evan Phillips.

Phillips had pitched in parts of four MLB seasons at the time. He’d debuted with the Braves and been included in the 2018 deadline deal that sent Kevin Gausman from the Orioles to Atlanta. Phillips flashed strikeout upside with the O’s over the next couple seasons but couldn’t consistently throw strikes. At the end of the 2020 campaign, a rebuilding Baltimore team put Phillips on waivers. He went unclaimed.

The reliever stayed in the O’s system until the following August. He was carrying an ERA a little above 5.00 in Triple-A when Baltimore released him. The Rays signed Phillips to a minor league deal, called him up for one three-inning outing, then pushed him back off the MLB roster. When he hit waivers for a second time, L.A. claimed him.

It seemed a nondescript move. Phillips had a 7.26 ERA in 49 career appearances. Relievers with swing-and-miss potential but control woes often change hands. Phillips was out of options, meaning he couldn’t be sent to the minors without running through waivers. It seemed entirely possible he’d get quickly squeezed out of the Dodger bullpen the way he had been in Tampa Bay.

Phillips threw 10 1/3 unremarkable innings down the stretch. He was left off the playoff roster for the first two rounds before working three scoreless frames in an eventual NLCS loss to the Braves. He held his spot on the 40-man all winter and began last year in middle relief.

It only took a couple months for him to establish himself in a higher-leverage role. Phillips broke out with 63 innings of 1.14 ERA ball, the lowest mark of any reliever with 60+ frames. He struck out nearly a third of opposing hitters while cutting his walks to a lower than average 6.4% rate. While he didn’t dramatically increase the number of pitches he threw within the strike zone, he more consistently got hitters to chase pitches off the plate. Hitters’ rate of swings on would-be balls went up, while they began taking more pitches within the zone. He was giving opponents a much more uncomfortable at-bat.

Upon landing with the Dodgers, Phillips made a couple adjustments to his pitch mix. Against right-handed batters, he increasingly leaned on his slider — his best offering — while scaling back on his four-seam fastball. When facing southpaws, he dropped a split in favor of a low-90s cutter. He has dominated hitters of either handedness since that point.

Phillips was never likely to repeat a 1.14 ERA — that’s an almost impossible ask of any pitcher — but he has again been one of the game’s best relievers. He’s allowing only 2.18 earned runs per nine over 53 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate is down slightly but still well above-average at 29.9%. The Dodgers have increasingly used him in the ninth inning, and he’s responded with 22 saves (and six holds) while blowing a lead just twice.

Going back to the start of last season, Phillips leads MLB relievers (minimum 100 innings) with a 1.62 ERA. He’s 11th among that group in strikeout percentage and eighth in both strikeout/walk rate differential and SIERA. He’ll turn 29 on Monday but still has three more seasons of club control via arbitration. Phillips played last year on a near-minimum salary and is making $1.3MM this season as a Super Two qualifier.

The Dodgers will go into the postseason with perhaps their spottiest starting staff in years. Julio Urías is on administrative leave after a felony domestic violence arrest. Clayton Kershaw is pitching through shoulder discomfort. Lance Lynn continues to struggle with home runs. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin have undergone season-ending surgery. There’s a case that rookie Bobby Miller — who has all of 17 major league starts to his name — is L.A.’s most reliable starter at the moment.

That’ll very likely increase the pressure on the relief corps in October. The Dodgers have an above-average bullpen, with Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Ferguson joining Brasier, Miller and hopefully deadline acquisition Joe Kelly in bridging the middle innings. Dave Roberts figures to lean most heavily on Phillips, something no one would’ve projected when the Dodgers placed their claim a little over two years ago.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals Evan Phillips

96 comments

The Mariners’ Quiet Offseason Bullpen Upgrades

By Anthony Franco | September 5, 2023 at 5:55pm CDT

The Mariners hold a tight lead in the AL West with less than a month to go. While certainly not assured, they’ve got a real shot at securing their first division title in over two decades.

While an offensive explosion in the second half is a big part of that success, Seattle’s pitching staff kept them afloat while the lineup was struggling for the bulk of the year. The M’s rotation deservedly draws plenty of praise, but their bullpen has arguably been even better.

Only the Yankees have gotten a lower ERA out of their bullpen than Seattle, whose relievers are allowing 3.43 earned runs per nine. The Astros’ group is the only one with a better strikeout rate than the M’s 26.5% clip; that’s also true of their 12.9% swinging strike percentage. Only the Yankees and Cardinals have kept the ball on the ground more frequently.

Seattle’s relief corps has been excellent across the board. They were confident enough in their relievers to trade closer Paul Sewald for controllable offensive help at the deadline. Thus far, they’ve been proven right in their evaluation. Since the Sewald deal, only the Dodgers and Braves have a lower bullpen ERA.

This production isn’t new. The Mariners had a top ten bullpen in both 2021 and ’22. It’s rare consistency for the area of the roster that tends to be the most volatile. The M’s have found that success despite essentially not investing in the bullpen. Their only major league free agent signings of relievers of the past two offseasons have been low-cost pickups of Sergio Romo and Trevor Gott, neither of whom remains on the roster.

Instead, Seattle has built their bullpen through waivers and trades. The biggest additions have come at the expense of the Padres. The M’s acquired Andrés Muñoz as part of the lopsided Austin Nola/Ty France seven-player swap at the 2020 deadline; Muñoz was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the time. A day later, Seattle sent middle reliever Taylor Williams to San Diego for then-prospect Matt Brash.

Yet the Mariners have constructed their bullpen on far more than that two-day stretch from three seasons back. As recently as last winter, Seattle plucked a trio of quality relievers from other clubs at little cost.

Justin Topa (controllable through 2026)

None of Seattle’s offseason moves has worked quite as well as the Topa pickup. The M’s acquired the 32-year-old righty in a January trade that sent minor league pitcher Joseph Hernandez to Milwaukee. The move didn’t generate many headlines at the time, as injuries and middling results had kept Topa to 17 appearances for the Brewers between 2020-22. Since landing in Seattle, he has been one of the best relievers in the American League.

Over 55 1/3 frames, he carries a 2.11 ERA. While Topa’s 22.4% strikeout rate and 8.5% swinging strike rate are each fringy, his 95 MPH sinker has enabled him to keep the ball on the ground at a huge 57.7% clip. He has handled hitters from both sides of the dish and kept his walks to a minuscule 6.3% rate. Topa has held 22 leads and saved a pair of games.

He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time next offseason. The M’s can control him for three seasons beyond this one, essentially the entire back end of his expected prime. It remains to be seen whether Topa will stay healthy for multiple seasons. An injury history that included two Tommy John surgeries and flexor tendon surgery is among the reasons that Milwaukee moved on from him. Even if this winds up being his most productive season, this trade will very likely go down as a win for Seattle.

Hernandez has logged 43 innings of 3.98 ERA ball as a 23-year-old for Milwaukee’s High-A affiliate. He’s striking out just 17.8% of batters faced against a huge 13.6% walk rate. He didn’t appear among Baseball America’s midseason ranking of the Brewers’ top 30 prospects and will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft for a second time this winter if not added to the 40-man roster.

Gabe Speier (controllable through 2027)

Seattle grabbed Speier off waivers from the Royals at the start of the offseason. As was the case with Topa, the 28-year-old southpaw had nondescript results in scattered time before landing in Seattle. Speier appeared at the major league level with the Royals each year from 2019-22 but never reached 20 MLB innings in a season. He posted a cumulative 3.83 ERA without missing many bats and had been blitzed for a 14.51 ERA over 30 Triple-A outings a year ago.

Given the astonishingly poor minor league results, it’s easy to understand why K.C. put him on waivers. Yet Speier has broken through at the big league level with Seattle, turning in 45 2/3 innings of 3.74 ERA ball. He’s striking out almost 30% of opposing hitters after running a 20.2% strikeout rate for Kansas City. Speier has walked fewer than 4% of opponents while keeping the ball on the ground at a huge 56.9% clip.

Speier isn’t as complete a pitcher as Topa. He’s best suited in favorable platoon situations, with right-handed hitters able to elevate the ball against him, leading to some home run issues. Speier has been a nightmare for opposing southpaws, though. He’s running a 26:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 85 plate appearances against lefties. Left-handed hitters have hit 70% of their batted balls on the ground.

It seems directly tied to an approach change, as Speier has dramatically upped the use of his sinker against same-handed batters while cutting back on his slider. He’d seemingly gotten too predictable last season, using his slider quite often when he got in favorable counts. He’s now keeping hitters honest with the fastball even when he gets ahead, both keeping the ball on the ground more frequently and making the slider a more effective complementary offering when he does go to it.

Tayler Saucedo (controllable through 2027)

Yet another sinkerballer claimed off waivers, Saucedo joined the Seattle organization on a claim from the Mets in January. He’d never played for New York, who had snagged him from the Blue Jays earlier in the winter. Saucedo had posted a 5.40 ERA in 28 1/3 innings over parts of two seasons for Toronto.

The 30-year-old lefty has tallied a career-high workload in the Pacific Northwest. Over 42 1/3 frames, he has posted a 3.19 ERA. Saucedo hasn’t shown the same command as Topa or Speier, but he’s inducing grounders at a 60.9% clip that even surpasses the rates of his teammates. While his 21.3% strikeout rate is a little below average, he’s getting swinging strikes on a strong 13.6% of his offerings.

Saucedo’s strikeout and walk marks are far better against same-handed opponents. He has been adept at keeping the ball on the ground against hitters from either side of the dish. The M’s are probably best served keeping him away from opposing teams’ top righty bats, though they have enough bullpen depth to deploy him situationally when his ground-ball ability is most valuable.

—————————

None of Topa, Speier or Saucedo were headline-grabbing acquisitions. They’re likely still not familiar names to many fans outside Seattle. Yet they’ve been productive moves on the margins for the M’s front office. Topa cost a minor league pitcher who is struggling in High-A. Speier and Saucedo were acquired for no more than a waiver fee. All three pitchers are playing for around the minimum salary.

The trio has turned in a 2.95 ERA while holding opponents to a .241/.301/.328 batting line over 143 1/3 combined innings. While not the flashiest performers, they’ve been the latest effective bullpen finds for a Seattle front office that has hit on quite a few low-cost relievers in recent years. It’s among the reasons they felt they could trade their closer without punting the season. With a month left to play, their bullpen depth has kept up its end of the bargain, leaving the M’s right in the thick of the division race.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

MLBTR Originals Seattle Mariners Gabe Speier Justin Topa Tayler Saucedo

27 comments

Luis Robert Jr. Is Delivering In His First True Full Season

By Darragh McDonald | September 4, 2023 at 7:38pm CDT

Luis Robert Jr. has seemed like a staple of the White Sox for a long time now, having debuted back in 2020. However, he wasn’t able to have a full, healthy season in any of his first three campaigns. He avoided the injured list in 2020, but played only 56 games that year due to the schedule being shortened by the pandemic to just 60 contests. He would then miss significant time due to a right hip flexor strain in 2021, getting into just 68 games that year. That was followed by a 98-game season last year, with IL trips due to COVID-19, blurred vision and a wrist sprain.

By the end of 2022, he had certainly been able to showcase his talent. He came into this year with 36 home runs in 222 games and a batting line of .289/.334/.474, which translated to a wRC+ of 122, indicating he was 22% better than league average in that time. He had also stolen 26 bases and been given strong grades for his center field defense. FanGraphs calculated him as being worth 6.7 wins above replacement in that time, a strong tally on a per-game basis but a limited output in terms of volume.

The 2023 campaign has finally allowed us to see what Robert can do over a full, healthy season. He dealt with some quad cramping over the weekend and is still out of the lineup today, but hasn’t been placed on the injured list at any point this year. He’s appeared in 128 games with almost a month still remaining on the schedule. His 5.3% walk rate and 28.4% strikeout rate are both worse than league average, but he’s doing significant damage when he connects, with 35 home runs and 33 doubles. His .272/.324/.560 batting line amounts to a 135 wRC+.

Defensively, Robert has continued to shine as well. He as 7 Defensive Runs Saved this year, a figure bested by just five center fielders around the league. Outs Above Average is even more enthused, with Robert’s tally of 12 in that category tops at his position, tied with Brenton Doyle of the Rockies. Robert also has 17 steals in 21 tries, helping him put up 5.2 fWAR on the year already. If it weren’t for the amazing two-way exploits of Shohei Ohtani, Robert would be in the American League Most Valuable Player conversation alongside players like Corey Seager, Julio Rodríguez and Bobby Witt.

It’s been a dismal season for the White Sox overall, with the club sporting a record of 53-84. Those poor results promoted a deadline selloff, with players like Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and others getting sent out of town for prospects. That was followed by a front office shakeup that saw both president Ken Williams and general manager Rick Hahn relieved of their duties last month.

But the shining star of Robert has been a bright spot in the otherwise-gloomy season and perhaps a key reason why the club is hopeful of a quick return to contention. Assistant general manager Chris Getz was recently promoted to general manager, with owner Jerry Reinsdorf saying that part of the reason for staying in-house was that Getz is already familiar with the organization and will perhaps be able to deliver a quick turnaround, as opposed to an outsider who might take time before making bold moves.

Though the Sox sold some players at the deadline, they were mostly limited to those nearing free agency, holding onto more controllable pieces like Robert, Dylan Cease, Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Vaughn. There are still plenty of holes to fill on the roster and it will be a challenge to patch them all in one winter, but the club has a couple of things in its favor. One of them is the incredibly weak division, where the 66-71 Guardians are still in the playoff hunt in September this year, meaning the path back to contention isn’t quite as steep as it would be elsewhere. The second thing is that core of solid players, headlined by Robert.

Robert has two more guaranteed years on his contract, followed by a pair of $20MM club options that each come with $2MM buyouts. Those look bargains right now and will certainly be triggered, even if Robert were to drop back slightly from his MVP-caliber performance.

That puts something of a long-term target in front of the Sox, who should be able to bank on Robert being on the team through 2027 at least. Jiménez and Vaughn can be controlled through 2026 and Cease through 2025. That gives them at least two more years with that core four, three years with the Robert-Jiménez-Vaughn triumvirate and another year of Robert after that. Time will tell whether or not they can build on that in the years to come, but Robert has shown that they have a strong foundation to work with.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

Chicago White Sox MLBTR Originals Luis Robert

29 comments
« Previous Page
Load More Posts
Show all
    Top Stories

    Astros Sign Craig Kimbrel

    Pirates Promote Bubba Chandler

    Evan Carter Diagnosed With Fractured Wrist

    Orioles Extend Samuel Basallo

    Blue Jays Activate Shane Bieber

    MLB, ESPN Nearing Deal Involving MLB.TV And In-Market Rights For Five Clubs

    Rays Promote Carson Williams

    Red Sox To Promote Jhostynxon Garcia, Place Wilyer Abreu On IL

    Kyle Tucker Was Diagnosed With Hairline Hand Fracture In June

    Félix Bautista Undergoes Shoulder Surgery, Expected To Miss 12 Months

    Phillies Place Zack Wheeler On Injured List With Blood Clot

    Red Sox Finalizing Deal With Nathaniel Lowe

    Marcelo Mayer To Undergo Season-Ending Wrist Surgery

    Orioles Promote Samuel Basallo

    Josh Hader Diagnosed With Shoulder Capsule Sprain, Hopes To Return In Playoffs

    Nationals Request Unconditional Release Waivers On Nathaniel Lowe

    Cubs To Promote Owen Caissie For MLB Debut

    Astros Place Josh Hader On Injured List Due To Shoulder Strain

    Mets To Promote Nolan McLean

    Pohlad Family No Longer Pursuing Sale Of Twins

    Recent

    Astros Sign Craig Kimbrel

    Mets, Ali Sanchez Agree To Minor League Deal

    Pirates Promote Bubba Chandler

    Diamondbacks Name Tim Bogar Third Base Coach

    Evan Carter Diagnosed With Fractured Wrist

    Red Sox Move Walker Buehler To Bullpen

    Orioles Place Jordan Westburg On Injured List

    Guardians Outright Carlos Hernández

    Orioles Extend Samuel Basallo

    Tigers Designate Ryan Kreidler For Assignment

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Every MLB Trade In July
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android App Store Google Play

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
    • Front Office Originals
    • Front Office Fantasy Baseball
    • MLBTR Podcast
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2026-27 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

    hide arrows scroll to top

    Register

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version