2024-25 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: June Edition
We’re around the halfway point of the 2024 season. Trade season is still a couple weeks from getting fully underway. It’s an opportune time to refresh our ranking of the upcoming free agent class.
This is the second of at least three installments we’ll do over the course of the season. Steve Adams handled our initial write-up of the top 10 players back in mid-April. This is our attempt to capture a player’s earning power, so age is big factor. This is not strictly a list of the best players in the class, though talent is obviously the starting point. There’s no change in the top two spots, but the past few months have shuffled the next tiers.
Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. I worked with Steve and Darragh McDonald — with input from MLBTR founder and owner Tim Dierkes — for this installment. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are eligible for the list. Stats are up to date through June 26.
1. Juan Soto, OF, Yankees
No surprise here. Soto has been the crown jewel for years and is likely to go wire-to-wire as the top impending free agent. He continues to build what looks like a future Hall of Fame résumé. Soto has been an elite hitter from the moment he debuted as a 19-year-old with the Nationals. That carried over upon his first blockbuster trade to the Padres and hasn’t changed in the Big Apple.
Soto is on pace for what might be the best season of his career. He’s hitting .303/.434/.567 across 357 plate appearances. As measured by wRC+, that offense is 85 percentage points better than league average and would be a personal high over a 162-game schedule. Soto has more walks than strikeouts for a fifth straight season. He already has 19 homers, giving him a chance to exceed last year’s career-high 35 longballs.
Not only is Soto one of the top three hitters in baseball, he’s firmly in his prime. He’ll play all of next season at 26, making him three to four years younger than a typical free agent. A signing team can realistically expect Soto to remain a top-flight hitter for the first seven to 10 years of a megadeal. While the calling card is obviously the bat, Soto has turned in decent defensive marks in the Bronx. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have credited him as a slightly above-average right fielder this season.
Soto turned down a reported $440MM extension offer from the Nats a few years ago — a decision that increasingly looks like it’ll pay off handsomely. Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner has spoken of a willingness to negotiate an extension during the season, but it’d be downright shocking if Soto doesn’t test the market at this point. (The outfielder himself suggested as much on Tuesday.) The Yankees will certainly make a run at keeping him, while teams like the Mets, Dodgers, Giants, etc. figure to be involved.
Soto will be three years younger than Shohei Ohtani was during his free agency. Soto isn’t likely to accept a deal with the kind of deferrals that Ohtani took, but he should handily beat the approximate $461MM net present value of the Ohtani contract. He should top half a billion dollars and it wouldn’t at all be surprising if his camp at the Boras Corporation were aiming for something close to $600MM at the start of the winter.
2. Corbin Burnes, SP, Orioles
Burnes has been the top pitcher in the class for some time. He broke out with a 2.11 ERA during the shortened 2020 season and backed that up with an MLB-best 2.43 ERA with 234 strikeouts over 28 starts to claim the NL Cy Young the following year. Burnes punched out an NL-leading 243 hitters the following season before turning in a 3.39 earned run average during his final season in Milwaukee.
The Brewers traded the three-time All-Star to Baltimore in advance of his final year of arbitration. While Milwaukee has gotten good work out of rookie infielder Joey Ortiz (and acquired hard-throwing lefty DL Hall), the O’s can’t have any regrets with how the trade has played out. Burnes owns a 2.35 ERA across 99 2/3 innings. He’s on his way to a fifth straight top-10 Cy Young finish and should be a candidate to win the award for a second time.
Unlike with Soto, one can at least find a yellow flag on Burnes’ stat sheet. His swing-and-miss rate has dropped over the last year and a half. Burnes struck out more than 30% of batters faced in each season from 2020-22. Among pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch, only Carlos Rodón had a higher strikeout percentage than Burnes’ 33.4% mark. That dipped to 25.5% a year ago and currently sits at 23.9%, his lowest rate since his 2018 rookie campaign. He’s getting fewer whiffs on both his cutter and curveball than he did back in 2021-22.
Teams will at least take note of the drop-off in whiffs, but it’s not likely to have too detrimental an effect on Burnes’ market. His 95 MPH cutter velocity is still as strong as ever. The bottom-line results are among the best in the league. Burnes has pristine command and is very difficult for opponents to square up even as they’re getting a few more balls in play. While every pitcher comes with some level of health risk, Burnes’ only injured list stint in the last three and a half years came as a result of a positive Covid test.
Burnes will play all of next season at age 30. Aaron Nola landed seven years and $172MM last offseason going into his age-31 campaign. Burnes is a better pitcher. He should be able to find an eight-year deal that also runs through his age-37 season, and there’s a chance he gets to nine years. While Burnes will probably come up shy of the nine-year, $324MM deal which Gerrit Cole landed a few years ago, he shouldn’t have much issue surpassing the $200MM mark and could beat $250MM.
3. Willy Adames, SS, Brewers
Adames is the biggest riser from the previous iteration of this list. We had him eighth in the class two months ago. Adames has since pulled away as the clear top shortstop and quite arguably the best infielder. The Brewers shortstop has rebounded from a pedestrian offensive season and is on pace for the best year of his career.
Over 353 plate appearances, the Dominican-born infielder owns a .238/.331/.423 slash line. He has 13 home runs and is drawing walks at a personal-high 12.2% clip. Most importantly, Adames is striking out 21% of the time. That’s trending as easily the lowest strikeout rate of his career. Whiffs have been the biggest question for the righty-hitting infielder. If he’s striking out at a league average pace, there aren’t many weaknesses to his game.
Adames has reached 20 home runs in all four full schedules he’s played. Barring injury, he’ll surpass that again and quite likely end in his customary 25-30 homer range. While Milwaukee’s American Family Field boosts power numbers, Adames has solid exit velocities and gets a lot of balls in the air. He has a decent approach and has incrementally improved his contact rate, particularly on pitches within the strike zone.
Even if Adames is more of a good hitter than an elite one, he’s a major asset on the other side of the ball. DRS and Statcast have graded him as one of the sport’s best infielders over the last six seasons. DRS has been bizarrely down on his defense this season, yet Statcast has had no such qualms. Most teams will view him as a plus or better defender, at least for the next few years. Adames turns 29 in September and should remain a sure-handed infielder with a good arm into his early-mid 30s.
On top of the well-rounded production, Adames has drawn rave reviews from teammates and coaches in both Tampa Bay and Milwaukee for his clubhouse acumen. It’s the kind of leadership and intangibles that teams love from a franchise shortstop. Players like Trevor Story, Javier Báez and Dansby Swanson all landed six- or seven-year deals between $140MM and $177MM with a broadly similar profile. None of those contracts have worked out quite as the signing team hoped — the Story and Báez deals have been unmitigated disasters — which could give teams pause. Yet those examples show the value teams place on a plus defensive shortstop with enough power to hit in the middle to upper third of a batting order.
4. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros
Bregman’s platform year started rather inauspiciously. He hit .219/.280/.372 through the end of May, a stretch that briefly relegated him as far as sixth in the Houston batting order. Bregman was not only doing his market no favors, he was a major contributor to the Astros’ terrible start to the season.
Fortunes have changed in June for team and player alike. Bregman owns a .341/.404/.494 line through 94 plate appearances this month. His overall season slash is still fairly pedestrian, weighed down by his early-season swoon. He’s rounding into form though, and he remains one of the best hitters (non-Soto division) in the class.
Bregman has been an above-average hitter in all nine seasons of his career. His 41-homer season from 2019 looks like a clear outlier at least partially attributable to the juiced ball. Bregman has gone from an MVP candidate to “merely” a very good everyday third baseman. Over the past five seasons, he carries a .260/.355/.437 batting line — a wRC+ that checks in 23 percentage points better than league average.
Some teams could take issue with Bregman’s batted-ball profile. He has never had massive raw power that translates into eye-popping exit velocities. His game has been built around pristine strike zone feel and an innate ability to pull the ball in the air, thereby maximizing the power he does possess. This year’s 35.9% hard contact rate is below average. Bregman’s walk rate has also fallen sharply as he’s gotten a little more aggressive and pitchers have attacked him in the strike zone with higher frequency.
Bregman could wind up being something of a divisive free agent. The batted-ball data and drop in walks could strike some clubs as a harbinger of decline. Bregman’s camp will point to his preternatural contact skills, solid third base defense, excellent durability, and status as one of the faces of a team that has gotten to the ALCS in seven straight seasons. Bregman turns 31 around Opening Day and still has a shot at a six- or seven-year deal that could push into the $150MM range (or further, if he can continue his blistering June pace).
5. Max Fried, SP, Braves
A former seventh overall pick, Fried has been a top-of-the-rotation arm for most of his time in Atlanta. He turned in a 4.02 ERA in his first full season back in 2019. The southpaw hasn’t allowed more than 3.04 earned runs per nine in any of the five seasons since then. Fried got off to a rocky start this year, surrendering 11 runs in five innings over his first two outings. Set those aside, and he’s looked better than ever. Over his last 13 starts, he carries a 2.12 ERA while averaging 6.53 innings per game and holding opponents to a .191/.255/.254 batting line.
The way Fried succeeds is somewhat unconventional. He doesn’t miss bats at the level typically associated with an ace. Fried has punched out 23.8% of his opponents in his career and carries a 22.3% strikeout rate this season. That’s solid but not overwhelming. He excels behind plus command and elite contact management. Fried is routinely near the top of the league in limiting opponents’ exit velocities. He has never posted a ground-ball rate lower than 50% and is racking up grounders at a huge 60.6% clip this season.
Fried isn’t a peak Dallas Keuchel or Kyle Hendricks type who thrived despite middling velocity. He throws sufficiently hard, averaging nearly 94 MPH on his four-seam and sinker. His mid-70s curveball isn’t a power breaking pitch, but it generates so much movement that hitters have never been able to square it up. Statcast credits him with seven distinct offerings. He leans most heavily on the four-seam, curve, sinker and changeup.
Some teams could shy away from paying top-of-the-market money to a pitcher who doesn’t have elite whiff rates. Others could have some concern about Fried’s arm health. He lost three months of the 2023 season to a forearm strain. (He also has a Tommy John surgery on his résumé, although that came back in 2015 when he was a prospect.) While Fried has looked no worse for wear, that adds a little extra risk for an investment beginning in his age-31 season.
Fried’s camp will probably view the Nola and Rodón (six years, $162MM) deals as comparison points. Fried is a Southern California native, which has led some to speculate he could prefer to sign with a team on the west coast, though he hasn’t publicly tipped his hand on any geographical preferences. He and the Braves have kicked around extension terms a few times over the years without coming to an agreement.
6. Jack Flaherty, SP, Tigers
Fried’s high school teammate is the first player on this top-10 who didn’t crack the list in April. He was one of a number of rebound starting pitching targets in the class. Flaherty has pulled away from the group with a dominant first three months to his Detroit tenure. Through 14 starts, he carries a 2.92 earned run average. He has punched out a third of opposing hitters with a huge 14.2% swinging-strike rate.
It’s Flaherty’s best sustained stretch since the second half of the 2019 season, when he looked to be breaking out as one of the best pitchers in the game. The intervening four years were largely disappointments. Flaherty struggled to a 4.91 ERA during the shortened 2020 schedule. He lost extended chunks of the next two seasons to shoulder problems. The righty avoided the injured list last year but looked like a shell of his former self. He allowed nearly five earned runs per nine with a roughly average 22.8% strikeout rate between the Cardinals and Orioles. Baltimore used him in relief at times down the stretch.
MLBTR predicted Flaherty would land a mid-level three-year deal last offseason. Given his youth, that would’ve offered him a life-changing payday while still affording him the opportunity to return to the market ahead of his age-31 season. Instead, he bet on himself and took a straight one-year pact. That looks like it’ll pay out handsomely. A nine-figure contract could be on the table. He’ll play next season at age 29 and has a shot at five or even six years. It wouldn’t be without risk given the volatility of his career, but Flaherty arguably has a higher ceiling than any starter in the class beyond Burnes and Fried.
Like everyone else on this list, Flaherty is eligible to receive a qualifying offer. He’s likelier than any of the other top free agents to be traded this summer, which would take the QO off the table. (Players traded midseason cannot receive a qualifying offer.) The Tigers are still on the periphery of Wild Card contention but haven’t hit enough to be a bona fide contender. A deadline deal would allow Flaherty to hit free agency unencumbered by draft compensation.
7. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
Alonso remains one of the sport’s preeminent power hitters. He has hit at least 37 homers in his four full seasons (and was on a 43-homer pace during the shortened season). He’s not quite at that level this year, connecting on 16 homers with a .465 slugging mark. That puts him at a 33-homer pace, although it wouldn’t at all be surprising if he outperforms that during the summer months.
Teams know what they’re getting with Alonso. He’s incredibly durable and has only had two minimal injured list stints as a big leaguer. He’s likely to hit 35+ homers in the middle of the lineup. The average and on-base marks are fairly pedestrian, but no one has more home runs than Alonso since he came into the league in 2019. Though his hard contact rate and average exit velocity are more ordinary than one might expect, no one questions his ability to hit for power in any stadium.
Alonso has a case as the second-best offensive player in the class. There’s not much value in the rest of the profile. He’s a below-average baserunner and a limited defender. Defensive Runs Saved has graded him as an average first baseman over the course of his career; Statcast has him below average with the glove. Alonso is entering his age-30 season and will likely try to beat the Matt Olson (eight years, $168MM) and Freddie Freeman (six years, $162MM with deferrals) contracts. He might need to move to designated hitter midway through a five- or six-year pact.
The Mets have maintained they want to keep their franchise first baseman. Alonso reportedly declined a seven-year, $158MM extension offer during the 2023 season. (He’s earning $20.5MM this season in his final arbitration year, so he’d “only” need to top $137.5MM to come out ahead on that decision.) That reported offer came before the Mets hired David Stearns as president of baseball operations. The sides seem content to table discussions about a long-term deal until Alonso gets a chance to field offers from other teams. He seemed like a trade candidate when the Mets were floundering early in the season. That’s harder to envision now that New York has pulled themselves back into the Wild Card race.
8. Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Padres
Kim is one of the top defensive players in the class. Public metrics have given him strong grades for his work all around the infield. The Padres liked Kim’s glove enough to fully commit to him as their shortstop this year, bumping Xander Bogaerts to the right side of the second base bag.
The offensive profile isn’t as exciting. Kim is a decent hitter whose game is built around excellent strike zone awareness and pure contact skills. Kim has walked nearly as often as he has gone down on strikes. A dismal .236 batting average on balls in play has depressed his overall output, as he’s hitting .223/.333/.385 across 328 plate appearances. While there’s surely some amount of poor fortune in that mark, Kim’s batted-ball metrics aren’t impressive. This season’s 35.5% hard contact rate, while a career high, is still a couple points below average. The South Korea native is on pace to top last year’s personal-high 17 home runs, but he’s probably never going to be a huge power threat.
After a poor first season at the MLB level, Kim was worth around four wins above replacement annually in the next two years. He’s on a similar pace in 2024. There’s probably not much more in terms of untapped upside, but Kim’s combination of contact skills, defense and baserunning (he has 53 stolen bases over the past two seasons) make him an above-average regular. He’s going into his age-29 season and could land a five-year contract in free agency.
9. Nick Pivetta, SP, Red Sox
One of the more volatile pitchers in the class, Pivetta has somewhat quietly excelled over the past calendar year. The right-hander’s performance has long lagged behind the quality of his stuff. It seemed as if he might always be too inconsistent despite flashing mid-rotation potential. As recently as last May, he looked as if he might pitch his way off the Red Sox’ roster entirely.
Things finally clicked for Pivetta after the Sox kicked him to the bullpen in mid-May last year. The former fourth-round draftee dominated in a multi-inning relief role. He continued overpowering hitters after the Sox returned him to the rotation for the final six weeks of the ’23 campaign. Pivetta has worked exclusively out of the rotation in 2024 and is still posting a gaudy strikeout and walk profile.
Over 11 starts, he owns a 4.06 earned run average. Pivetta has fanned 27.2% of batters faced against a 6.4% walk rate. He’s giving up a lofty 1.87 home runs per nine innings, leading to an unimpressive 4.42 FIP. Metrics that normalize HR/FB are far more bullish (3.43 SIERA, 3.56 xFIP). The longball has always been an issue and is a key reason he has never posted a sub-4.00 ERA season in the big leagues. Yet it’s possible a team falls in love with the stuff and the strikeouts.
Dating back to last year’s initial bullpen conversion, Pivetta touts a 3.48 ERA with a huge 32.1% strikeout rate across 160 1/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .202/.263/.388 in 639 plate appearances. Pivetta lost around a month this season to a flexor strain in his forearm. That’s a potential concern, but there wasn’t any structural damage and he has held up since being reinstated on May 8. Outside of virus-related placements, that was Pivetta’s first injured list stint in his MLB career. If the forearm issue is in the rearview, he looks like a volume innings eater with the stuff to be a No. 3 starter. Even going into his age-32 campaign, he’s got a shot at a four-year deal if he can sustain this K-BB% and keep his ERA at a reasonable level.
10. Luis Severino, SP, Mets
Severino jumped across town after a terrible final season with the Yankees. The two-time All-Star signed with the Mets on a pillow contract that guaranteed him $13MM. The early returns are good. Severino has turned in a 3.29 ERA while averaging six innings per start through his first 15 outings. It’s a marked improvement from the 6.65 ERA that ended his time in the Bronx.
If one looked no further than the ERA, it’d be easy to conclude that Severino is back to the No. 2/No. 3 form he’d shown for most of his Yankee tenure. It’s not that simple. Severino hasn’t recaptured the swing-and-miss stuff that essentially evaporated after 2022. This year’s 19% strikeout rate is a match for his 18.9% mark a season ago. His 8.5% swinging-strike percentage is down slightly from last season and trending towards a personal low. Rather than overpowering hitters the way he once did, Severino has gotten by with dramatically better batted-ball results than he had during his final season with the Yankees.
The 30-year-old deserves some credit for that. Severino has incorporated a sinker that he’s using around a quarter of the time. While the pitch doesn’t miss bats, it has helped increase his ground-ball rate to a career-high 50.8% clip. Hitters have also had a significantly harder time squaring up his four-seam fastball than they did last season. Severino has said he believed he was tipping his pitches last year.
There’s certainly some amount of fortune in this year’s results. Opponents hit .326 on balls in play last season; that’s all the way down to .252. His rate of home runs per fly-ball has more than halved (from 20.9% to 9.4%). That’s not all luck, but it’d be too optimistic to wave away the role of batted ball variance entirely. As is so often the case, the truth lies somewhere between the past two seasons.
Severino is not likely to secure the kind of nine-figure deal that once seemed attainable unless he dramatically improves the whiff rate. Still, there’s enough to like in the profile to warrant a three- or potentially four-year contract. Players like Taijuan Walker ($72MM) and Jameson Taillon ($68MM) landed four-year guarantees around $70MM with similar career arcs. They’d been former top prospects who once looked like potential top-end arms before settling in as mid-rotation types without a ton of strikeouts. Severino, who turns 31 in February, could be following that trajectory. He’ll be eligible for a qualifying offer unless the Mets trade him.
Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Cody Bellinger*, Matt Chapman*, Gerrit Cole *^, Paul Goldschmidt, Teoscar Hernández, Clay Holmes, Danny Jansen, Max Kepler, Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar, Anthony Santander, Max Scherzer, Christian Walker
* Denotes ineligible for a qualifying offer
^ Cole can opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM on his contract at season’s end, though if he signals his intent to do so, the Yankees can override his opt-out by tacking on a tenth year at another $36MM. Because Cole was only recently reinstated from the injured list and because the Yankees can effectively veto his opt-out, we’re not including him on this installment. If, as the season wears on, he’s pitching well enough to trigger that opt-out and there’s talk of the Yankees allowing him to walk, he could land on future iterations.
Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Francisco Alvarez, Hoerner, Crochet, And More
This week's mailbag gets into a potential Francisco Alvarez extension, trading Nico Hoerner, valuing Garrett Crochet, potential outfield additions for the Braves, and much more. Let's get into it!
Ben asks:
What would be a fair contract extension for the Mets and Francisco Alvarez? He is so talented and a great leader for such a young kid, have to imagine he will get expensive in arbitration.
I wrote an answer to this and then ran it by Steve Adams, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald. They threw cold water on some outlandish contract ideas I had for the Mets' young catcher.
Comparable contracts are lacking for Alvarez. I don't think comps need to be catcher-specific, especially because there are so few good ones. The Buster Posey and Joe Mauer deals are too old. Will Smith signed with four years of service and the Dodgers got his age 29-37 seasons, with a luxury tax dodge as a core feature.
One that comes to mind in the 2+ class, where Alvarez will be after the season, is Andres Gimenez. He signed a seven year, $106.5MM extension. Some of the other MLBTR writers see this as something of a ceiling for Alvarez, and I assume the Mets would feel similarly. At present, I'll take the over on that.
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The Guardians’ Bullpen Has Been Transformative
Coming into 2024, the expectations for the Guardians were modest. They finished 76-86 last year and didn’t do much in the offseason. They made a few small trades, and their largest free agent signing was giving catcher Austin Hedges $4MM to be a glove-first backup to Bo Naylor.
Many in the baseball world expected the Twins to repeat as champions in the Central, since they ran away with it last year. Others suggested the Tigers or Royals as potential upstarts, as both of those clubs made some intriguing offseason moves to supplement their young cores. However, more than two months into the seasons, the Guardians are up top with a 43-23 record, five games ahead of the second-place Royals. That hot start is largely due to the Cleveland bullpen.
The club has sometimes found surprise success in the past based on strong starting pitching, but that hasn’t been the case this time. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. Gavin Williams has been on the injured list all year due to his own elbow issues. They’ve gotten some decent results from Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, but Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco and Xzavion Curry have been mediocre or just bad. The rotation has a collective 4.23 earned run average that places them 18th out of the 30 clubs in MLB.
The offense has undoubtedly played a role in the club’s success this year, certainly more than last year. The team hit .250/.313/.381 overall for a wRC+ of 92 last year, 22nd in the league. After their quiet offseason, not much was expected out of the lineup in 2024, but they are currently hitting .239/.318/.398. That line isn’t markedly different from last year’s, but with offense down around the league, it actually translates to a 107 wRC+. That puts them eighth in the league, pretty good but not elite.
The bullpen, however, has been in a class of its own. Cleveland’s relief core has an ERA of 2.33, easily the best mark in the majors. The Dodgers are second at 2.92, a gap of more than half a run. The Brewers are in fifth place at 3.34, more than a full run behind. Here’s how it breaks down individually, sorted by innings pitched…
- Emmanuel Clase: 32 1/3 innings pitched, 0.84 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 2.5% walk rate, 54.4% ground ball rate
- Hunter Gaddis: 31 1/3 IP, 1.72 ERA, 23.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 36.1 GB%
- Cade Smith: 30 1/3 IP, 1.78 ERA, 34.5 K%, 6 BB%, 47.8 GB%
- Nick Sandlin: 28 1/3 IP, 2.54 ERA, 26.5 K%, 8.8 BB%, 35.3 GB%
- Scott Barlow: 27 IP, 3.67 ERA, 30.8 K%, 12 BB%, 51.5 GB%
- Tim Herrin: 27 IP, 1.00 ERA, 25.5 K%, 10.8 BB%, 43.5 GB%
- Pedro Avila: 23 1/3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 29.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, 48.4 GB%
- Sam Hentges: 13 1/3 IP, 2.70 ERA, 33.3 K%, 2.1 BB%, 44.8 GB%
They also got some poor results from Tyler Beede as well as some small contributions from Eli Morgan, Peter Strzelecki and Wes Parsons, though none of those four are on the active roster at the moment. Of the eight guys currently in the mix, none of them has an ERA higher than Barlow’s 3.67. The league-average strikeout rate for relievers in the majors this year is 22.8%, meaning everyone in this group is ahead of the curve. Only Barlow and Herrin have walk rates worse than the 9.3% league average. The 43.4% league-wide ground ball rate is bested by everyone except Gaddis and Sandlin.
Relievers are notoriously volatile, and it’s fair to assume the entire group can’t stay this dominant forever. Most of the group have really low batting averages on balls in play, which could be related to the club’s strong defense, but there’s likely still some luck-based correction coming. League-average BABIP is .286 this year, but Gaddis, Clase, Herrin, Hentges and Sandlin are respectively at .232, .228, .203, .200 and .164.
But even if regression is coming, there’s still lots of good stuff going on and there are plenty of wins in the bank. The Guardians have gone 11-8 in one-run games and 6-2 in extra innings, no doubt thanks to this group of relievers.
The strong bullpen vaulting them to the top of the standings surely impacts their upcoming deadline plans. Last year, as the club was hovering around .500, they tried to walk the buy-sell line. They traded Aaron Civale to the Rays for Kyle Manzardo, a move that clearly downgraded the club at that time but could eventually work out in the long run if Manzardo clicks. They also made a couple of change-of-scenery swaps, sending Amed Rosario to the Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard in addition to flipping Josh Bell to the Marlins for Jean Segura and Kahlil Watson. Segura was released immediately and Syndergaard about a month later.
This year, they should be more firmly in the buyers’ camp and should have plenty of flexibility in what they can do. Relievers are generally cheaper than other players in terms of salary but can be pricey trade acquisitions at the deadline. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer put it this way at last year’s deadline, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune: “The price to go get a rental reliever or even a controllable reliever this time of year is often cost prohibitive. And so, to me, it just underscores the value of developing those guys yourself.”
With the results so far this year, the Guardians should have less need than any other club to shop in that aisle, freeing them up to focus on starting pitching or the lineup. Acquiring those kinds of players can also be pricey, but the Guards should have lots of wiggle room to make things work. Their tepid offseason means their payroll is relatively light, certainly by league standards but even by their own. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they had an Opening Day payroll of $98MM. They were in the $120-135MM range in the three pre-pandemic years, so perhaps there’s an ability to take on a notable contract from another club with minimal prospect cost.
In the longer term, Bieber and Barlow are coming off the books this winter, subtracting respective salaries of $13.125MM and $6.7MM. Lesser contracts for Hedges, Carrasco and Ramón Laureano will also be expiring. Some of those savings will be needed for arbitration raises to McKenzie and Josh Naylor, but there’s only $45MM on the books for next year as of right now, mostly for José Ramírez and Andrés Giménez.
At least part of the reason the budget is so low is that the bullpen has largely been built on the cheap. Clase was acquired as a prospect and signed a team-friendly extension while still in his pre-arb years, making just $2.5MM this year. Gaddis, Hentges, Sandlin and Herrin are all Cleveland draftees making less than $1.2MM. Smith went undrafted in 2020, when the pandemic reduced the draft to just five rounds, and is still pre-arb. Avila is also pre-arb, acquired from the Padres in a cash deal after being designated for assignment in April. Barlow, an offseason trade acquisition, is in his final arbitration season and making the highest salary of the bunch at $6.7MM.
But even if they don’t want to be taking on significant money, the Guardians could make deals happen with prospect capital. Their farm system isn’t especially strong, with evaluators generally putting in the middle of the pack. FanGraphs puts them 13th, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both put them 19th, while Keith Law of The Athletic puts them in the 22nd spot.
However, they are about to get a huge boost in a month’s time when the 2024 draft takes place. The Guardians can always count on a strong draft since they’re a small-market club and get competitive balance picks, but they also won the draft lottery in December, meaning they get the No. 1 overall pick despite having the ninth-best odds of doing so. That should allow them to bump their farm system up in those rankings when the draft takes place from July 14 to 16. And while they can’t trade the players they draft until after the season (nor can they use the player-to-be-named-later loophole to do so), a fresh influx of high-end talent will lessen the sting of dealing some prospects they already have in-house.
All of these factors will put them in a very interesting position when the deadline approaches on July 30. Even if they hit a slump in the next month or so, falling back a bit in the standings would still have them not just in playoff position but in contention for the division. The Central has been weak in the past, leaving those clubs to either win the division or not make the playoffs at all. But they are stronger this year with the Royals and Twins both currently holding Wild Card spots. Even if one of those two can gain ground on Cleveland, it wouldn’t significantly dampen their buyer position.
When the Guardians do start lining up deals, they should have plenty of options thanks to their financial position and the infusion of young talent that the farm system is about to receive from the draft. Adding to the rotation and the lineup will likely be the priorities and they should have every ability to do just that, with a big thanks to their elite bullpen.
Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Judge, Luis Robert Jr., Reds, Pirates, Royals
It's time to crack open the MLB mailbag! This week we get into a potential position change for Aaron Judge, possible Luis Robert Jr. trade packages, the AL Cy Young race, possible targets for the Reds, Pirates, and Royals, and much more.
Casey asks:
When Anthony Rizzo's contract runs out with the Yanks, do they move Judge to first? (He's tall enough to make a great stretch, should lower his injury risk and it makes room for Jasson Dominguez or Spencer Jones.)
The Yankees clearly won't be picking up Rizzo's club option for 2025, so he'll be a free agent after this season. Judge, meanwhile, is signed through 2031 yet will turn 33 in April of next year.
It's so hard to take a competent outfielder and move him down the defensive spectrum with seven years left on his large contract. On the other hand, that's similar to what the Phillies did with Bryce Harper, ending his time as an outfielder at age 30 with nine years left on his deal. I never really understood that decision or why the Phillies weren't questioned more on it. Here's what Harper said in February:
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Ryan O’Hearn Leveled Up … Again
It’s been just shy of a year since MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote, “The Orioles may have found the lefty bat they wanted” when writing about Ryan O’Hearn‘s then-nascent breakout in Baltimore. Acquired from the Royals in exchange for cash on the heels of a DFA, O’Hearn was subsequently designated for assignment by the Orioles as well before being passed through waivers unclaimed and sent outright to Triple-A Norfolk.
It was the sort of ostensible unremarkable trade that is made hundreds of times over the course of a calendar year and quickly forgotten — until it wasn’t. As most are aware — certainly every Orioles fan — O’Hearn indeed emerged as the left-handed bat Baltimore had sought. At the time of Darragh’s piece last year, O’Hearn was slashing .308/.348/.542 with six home runs in 115 plate appearances. It wasn’t a big sample and he wasn’t walking much (5.2%), but O’Hearn’s batted-ball data supported much of that early flurry. He finished the year in strong fashion, seeing regular playing time against right-handed pitching and ending the year with a stout .289/.322/.480 slash — 18% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+.
For a player who’d hit .211/.282/.351 with a 27% strikeout rate over the four prior seasons in Kansas City (2019-22) before being designated for assignment, last season was a stunning breakout. The Orioles would’ve been thrilled just to have that one year, but O’Hearn came to Baltimore with four-plus years of playing time, making him controllable through the 2024 season. It was a no-brainer to tender him a contract and go through the arbitration process with him, and even if he reverted back to his 2019-22 form or regressed some at the plate, the entire gambit of acquiring him would’ve been well worth it based on 2023 alone.
O’Hearn, however, hasn’t reverted to his 2019-22 form. He hasn’t regressed closer to league-average. He hasn’t maintained the status quo and or even taken just a small step forward. Rather, he’s taken his game to an entirely new level, not just in terms of his raw run-production but also his approach at the plate.
In 189 plate appearances this season — all but 11 coming against right-handed pitching, it should be noted — O’Hearn is batting .287/.384/.489. He’s been 38% better than league-average, per wRC+. He’s already belted nine homers, six doubles and a triple.
He’s also struck out 19 times. In 189 plate appearances. Lest you think that was a typo, let’s write it out: nineteen times.
O’Hearn, who entered the 2024 season with a lifetime 25.6% strikeout rate in the big leagues, has at 30 years old simply become allergic to strikeouts. He’s also nearly doubled his walk rate from last year’s 4.1% to 7.9%. That feat isn’t as eye-popping on its own, given O’Hearn’s penchant for drawing free passes earlier in his career (11.5% from 2018-20), but it does serve to further underscore the evolution of his approach at the plate.
By measure of Statcast, O’Hearn chased 32% of pitches off the plate in 2023. This year, that number is down to 26.5%. He’s making contact on balls out of the strike zone at a career-best 64.4% clip, and his ability to connect on pitches within the strike zone has also ticked up. This year’s 90.6% mark is a career-best and sits more than five percentage points north of the 85.3% league average.
The uptick in volume of contact has come at the expense of some of his quality of contact, but that’s not to say O’Hearn is getting by with a series of well-placed bloops and weak grounders. His 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 41.9% hard-hit rate are both strong — they’re just down from last year’s respective marks of 91.9 mph and 51.5%. He’s in the 72nd and 75th percentile of MLB players in terms of exit velo and hard-hit rate, plus the 85th percentile of hitters in terms of whiff rate. Even with less life on his average batted ball, the increased frequency of contact leads Statcast to project O’Hearn in the 94th percentile or better in terms of his expected batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.
It bears repeating that some of the reasoning for both his quality of contact and his gaudy expected stats is that O’Hearn is shielded nearly entirely from left-on-left matchups. His career performance in such situations (.168/.236/.286) rather emphatically shows that he’s benefited from Baltimore’s aggressive platooning. That somewhat specialized role doesn’t detract from his usefulness however, and when coupled with the nonexistent cost of acquisition, O’Hearn continues to cement himself as one of the current front office regime’s savviest acquisitions.
Speaking of savvy, any discussion of O’Hearn’s production should also touch on the slugger’s contract status. As noted before, O’Hearn came to Baltimore with two seasons of club control remaining. However, the two parties weren’t able to agree on a middle ground in arbitration prior to exchanging figures. O’Hearn filed for a $3.8MM salary to the Orioles’ $3.2MM figure. The two parties ultimately avoided a hearing at the eleventh hour, agreeing to a $3.5MM salary for the 2024 season — the midpoint between their submitted figures — as well as a club option for the 2025 campaign.
That would’ve been O’Hearn’s first free-agent season, but the O’s now have control over next year at a $7.5MM price point. O’Hearn would boost that option value by $500K upon appearing in 120 and 150 games. The latter of those two numbers won’t happen. O’Hearn has already been absent from 14 Orioles games. He’s on pace to appear in 127 games, however, making the first of those $500K escalators still not only attainable but likely.
The club option was notable at the time but hardly a lock to be exercised or even emerge as a borderline decision. But, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco quipped to me when chatting about O’Hearn’s newfound contact skills, few realized he was going to “turn into Luis Arraez with power.” That’s a bit of an overstatement of course — Arraez has fanned at a ridiculous 5.7% clip since Opening Day 2023 — but O’Hearn currently possesses the seventh-lowest strikeout rate of the 248 hitters with at least 150 plate appearances this season. Of the 30 players in that set who have a strikeout rate of 15% or lower, the only one hitting for more power than O’Hearn (by measure of ISO) is Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez. Securing what now looks to be a wildly affordable club option for a third season in order to avoid a hearing over a $600K difference in figures looks like a raucous bargain for the Orioles.
O’Hearn may be a limited player by virtue of his platoon splits and lackluster defensive ratings both in the outfield corners and at first base, but he’s developed one of the most unique skill sets in the game and made himself a vital member of one of MLB’s top offenses. On two different occasions in the 2022-23 offseason, any club could’ve acquired O’Hearn for nothing more than cash or a waiver claim.
The Orioles clearly didn’t expect this level of outcome — they wouldn’t have designated him for assignment if they did — but they deserve credit for seeing value where others didn’t. Much of the focus on Baltimore’s success is rightly placed on young core of players either drafted by the O’s (Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, etc.) or acquired via trade (Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Cade Povich), but hitting the jackpot on a small-scale pickup like O’Hearn is the sort of move that can be a separator, providing a high-end complementary player to help take an impressive core to the next level.
Salvador Perez’s Resurgent Showing
The 39-27 Royals remain one of the most surprising stories of the season’s first couple months. While Kansas City certainly expected to be better than they were last year, they’ve played well enough to have a chance to top last season’s 56 wins by the All-Star Break.
Any turnaround that drastic is going to have multiple causes. Among the biggest (and perhaps least anticipated) developments for Kansas City is a massive first half from their franchise catcher. Salvador Perez’s career looked to be on the decline heading into his age-34 season. He has turned back the clock with his best start in at least three years.
Perez heads into this week’s matchup with the AL-leading Yankees carrying a .299/.372/.491 batting line across 261 plate appearances. He has connected on 10 homers and already picked up 15 doubles after hitting between 21 and 24 two-baggers in each of the last five full seasons. While he’s dipped into a 3-25 slump to this point in June, Perez turned in well above-average production in both April and May. Among catchers with 100+ plate appearances, he ranks fifth in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging. He’s fourth at the position in overall offensive output after accounting for the difficulty of hitting in K.C.’s spacious Kauffman Stadium.
The OBP is particularly impressive. Perez has always had big power, particularly relative to his counterparts behind the plate. He hasn’t excelled at consistently getting on base, though. Perez is an extremely aggressive hitter who has never been keen on waiting out free passes. He has only finished six of his 13 career seasons with an on-base percentage north of .300. He’s not only comfortably above that pace, he’s on track for what’ll be the best OBP of his career (and by a wide margin, if one excludes his 39-game rookie season in 2011 and the 37 games he played in 2020).
Perez hasn’t suddenly become a selective hitter a decade and a half into his MLB career. Among batters with 100+ PAs, only the recently designated Harold Ramírez has chased pitches outside the strike zone more frequently. Perez is eighth in overall swing rate. He’s as aggressive as ever. Yet he’s been more locked in this season than he has for the last couple years. Perez has made contact on 75.3% of his swings, a nearly four-point jump relative to last year and his highest rate since 2020. It’s not a coincidence that he’s striking out less often than he has in nearly 10 years.
It’s a strong rebound for a player who looked to be on the downswing. Perez had arguably the worst season of his career in 2023. While he played in 140 games and hit 23 homers, his .422 slugging percentage was his second lowest. He hit .255 while reaching base at a .292 clip that were both below his career norms. FanGraphs graded Perez as a sub-replacement player in 2023; Baseball Reference had him marginally better than replacement level but with a personal-low 0.5 wins.
That’s a reflection not only in his down work at the plate but a longstanding decline in his defensive metrics. Pitch framing metrics have never been keen on Perez’s receiving skills. He’d typically done an excellent job at controlling the running game, but that evaporated last season. Perez threw out only nine of 63 attempted basestealers, a 14.3% rate that was well south of the 20% league mark.
There are crucial aspects of catcher defense (game-calling, managing a pitching staff) that can’t be captured by public metrics. Perez has always been highly-regarded for those qualities. That said, his 2023 performance in the quantifiable parts of catching was not impressive. It looked in line with an overall declining career trajectory.
Perez has rebounded on that side of the ball as well. Statcast has rated him as an average pitch framer in 321 innings. He’s 6-19 in cutting down stolen base attempts. Perez was behind the plate for 39 wild pitches over 738 1/3 frames last season; that’s down to seven wild pitches in more than 40% of the innings this year. It’s tough to fully separate that from the team’s much improved pitching staff — the Royals brought in Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo and are getting a full season from Cole Ragans — but Perez’s defensive production has improved.
The Royals have slightly reduced Perez’s responsibilities. They’re mixing him in at first base a little more often than they did last season, a luxury afforded by having a quality #2 catcher in Freddy Fermin. Perhaps that’s also playing a part in Perez’s resurgent production.
In any case, the former World Series MVP’s huge first couple months should send him to the All-Star Game for the ninth time in his career. It’s a key reason the Royals are within four games of the Guardians for the AL Central lead and sit firmly in the second Wild Card position.
Perez’s return to form is also a welcome boost for a front office that made what was then a franchise-record investment three seasons ago. Kansas City signed him to a four-year, $82MM extension in Spring Training 2021 that preemptively covered the 2022-26 campaigns. Perez made $18MM in ’22, $20MM for the following two seasons, and is set for a $22MM salary next year. There’s also a $2MM buyout on a $13.5MM team option for 2026. That contract seemed well underwater as recently as a few months ago, but it’s a reasonable sum for this level of production.
The Royals don’t need to concern themselves with Perez’s long-term future, though it’s hard to envision him playing anywhere else at this point of his career. The immediate focus is on getting to the postseason for the first time since their 2015 championship. Perez is the only remaining player from that team and, even in his mid-30s, is playing a key role in trying to get Kansas City back to the playoffs nearly a decade later.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Will The Mets Trade Pete Alonso?
The Mets head to London for a World Tour series against the Phillies this weekend. Even after sweeping the Nationals, New York owns a 27-35 record that has them above just the Rockies and Marlins in the National League. They’re remarkably only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card race, a testament to the NL’s mediocrity beyond its top four teams. There are six clubs between the Mets and the current final playoff team, the Padres.
If the Mets don’t make significant improvements in the next six-plus weeks, they’ll head into deadline season as a seller. Impending free agents are always the most apparent trade candidates. The Mets have no shortage of rentals they can market. Sean Manaea (who has a $13.5MM player option for next season), J.D. Martinez, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino, Jose Quintana and Jake Diekman could all move. Yet there’s no more interesting Mets’ trade candidate than their first baseman.
Pete Alonso is a few months from his first trip to the open market. He reportedly declined a $158MM extension offer last summer. President of baseball operations David Stearns made clear throughout the offseason that while the Mets had no interest in trading Alonso over the winter, they didn’t anticipate reopening extension negotiations before he hit free agency.
That should spur plenty of trade speculation as the deadline approaches. That’s evidently already happening in front offices outside of Queens. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote this week that multiple rival general managers expect the Mets to trade Alonso before the deadline. That seems more like informed speculation than a suggestion that his name has come up in trade talks to this point.
Will talks gain legitimate traction in the coming weeks? There’s a straightforward argument for the Mets to move Alonso. They evidently don’t plan on keeping him from testing the free agent market. Alonso will begin his next contract in his age-30 season. When Stearns was running baseball operations in Milwaukee, the Brewers preferred not to invest heavily in defensively-limited sluggers. He obviously has far more resources at his disposal now, but it’s fair to wonder whether Alonso is the type of player around whom Stearns wants to build.
That’s particularly true with a slight downturn in Alonso’s batted ball metrics. He’s still capable of hitting the ball as hard anyone, but he has done so less frequently over the past couple seasons. The Polar Bear’s rate of hard contact (a batted ball with an exit velocity north of 95 MPH) peaked at 47.3% back in 2021. It dropped by a few points in each of the next two seasons. This year’s 40.1% hard contact rate is a match for last season’s. It places Alonso 129th out of 263 qualified hitters.
The dip in hard contact rate hasn’t made Alonso a bad hitter, of course. He’s hitting .238/.315/.477 with 14 homers across 267 plate appearances. After accounting for the pitcher-friendly nature of Citi Field and a depressed league run environment, that’s 27 percentage points better than average. Alonso remains a middle-of-the-order bat, but it’s a slightly concerning trend for a player whose game is built on power.
If the front office has concerns about Alonso’s long-term projection, a trade would be the most sensible decision. The Mets would get very little in return if they let him walk in free agency. They’d make him a qualifying offer, but they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round if he signs elsewhere. As a luxury tax payor, they’re entitled to the lowest compensation for losing a qualified free agent. The trade offers they receive this summer would certainly be better than that, even if Alonso’s limited control window and $20.5MM arbitration salary make it unlikely they’d get any top-tier prospects in return.
For the Mets to keep Alonso, they’d need to believe there’s a realistic path to the postseason in 2024 and/or feel good about their chances of retaining him in free agency. Making the playoffs this year isn’t impossible, but they’ve put themselves in a hole with their poor start. Holding Alonso would probably be more about the latter scenario — a sign they’re confident that he’ll stay in New York after seeing what other teams will offer.
Owner Steve Cohen is capable of outbidding anyone. He’s presumably keen on retaining Alonso, who has proven himself in New York and has been a fan favorite since his electrifying rookie season. Yet the Mets have been relatively restrained in the last two offseasons after their frenzied effort to spend their way into contention in 2021 didn’t quite pan out. (The Mets did win 101 games in 2022, but they followed up a first-round playoff exit with last year’s 75 wins.) The Mets seem to be gearing up for a bidding war with the Yankees and others on Juan Soto, which could take some of the priority away from Alonso.
It’s at least worth considering the possibility that the Mets trade Alonso before trying to bring him back next winter. That’s not unheard of but doesn’t happen often, particularly with players at the top of the market. A deadline trade typically reflects an understanding that the team and player aren’t going to line up on contract figures.
How will the Mets handle the situation? Is Alonso going to be on the move this summer?
What Will Happen With Pete Alonso?
-
Deadline trade 53% (5,037)
-
Mets make the QO, let Alonso walk 16% (1,522)
-
Mets extend or re-sign him 16% (1,513)
-
Mets trade Alonso, then re-sign him in the offseason 14% (1,366)
Total votes: 9,438
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Surprising Rock Of The Marlins’ Rotation
At last year’s trade deadline, the Marlins and Padres made a trade that largely flew under the radar at the time but is now proving to be fairly significant. The Fish sent Garrett Cooper and minor league pitcher Sean Reynolds to the Friars for left-hander Ryan Weathers.
Trades of star players like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer stole the headlines at the time, while other notable players like Paul Sewald, Jeimer Candelario and Mark Canha also changed teams. Even within Miami, the acquisitions of Jake Burger and Josh Bell garnered far more attention than the Weathers deal, and that was fairly understandable back then. Burger and Bell immediately joined the big league club and helped them reach the playoffs, their first full-season postseason appearance in 20 years.
Cooper has been a decent hitter at times but has also been frequently hurt and was an impending free agent at the time. Reynolds was a 25-year-old who had only recently converted to pitching after spending his earlier professional seasons as a first baseman and outfielder.
Weathers had been a big name a few years prior. The former No. 7 overall pick was ranked by Baseball America as the No. 84 prospect in the league going into 2021, but Weathers hadn’t been impressing prior to the deal. He had thrown 143 big league innings for the Padres before becoming a Marlin, allowing 5.73 earned runs per nine frames.
Even in the minors, Weathers wasn’t exactly mowing opponents down. He had a 6.73 ERA in 123 innings for Triple-A El Paso in 2022. That club plays in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but Weathers had subpar strikeout and walk rates of 15.6% and 10.1%. With El Paso in 2023, he lowered his ERA to 4.20 and struck out 29.2% of batters faced but was still giving out walks at an ugly 13.5% rate. The Padres called him up for 44 2/3 innings in the majors last year, but he had a 6.25 ERA in that time, striking out just 14.8% of opponents. The fact that the Padres were willing to let him go for a pretty limited package suggests that they considered his stock way down relative to when he was a top-10 pick and top-100 prospect.
Weathers was largely an afterthought coming into this year. Even with Sandy Alcántara undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, Miami’s rotation mix projected to include Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Max Meyer and Trevor Rogers. Reliever A.J. Puk was going to be stretched out, giving the club another potential starter. Since Weathers still has an option year left, it seemed like he would have to start 2024 in the minors and earn his way into a big league job.
That’s not the way things have played out thus far. Garrett, Cabrera and Pérez all started the season on the injured list due to injuries, with Pérez ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery. Luzardo and Puk eventually hit the IL during the season, with the latter moved back to a relief role when the starting experiment failed. Meyer made three good starts but was optioned to the minors so the club could monitor his workload as he ramps back up from 2022 Tommy John surgery.
Amid all of that, Weathers has been the club’s best and most consistent starter this year. He has taken the ball 12 times and logged 68 2/3 innings, while no one else has topped 57. On top of the quantity, Weathers has also provided quality with a 3.41 ERA. His 22.1% strikeout rate is close to average, but his 6.9% walk rate is strong and his 51.5% ground ball rate is very good.
Manager Skip Schumaker recently appeared on MLB Network Radio and discussed the breakout from Weathers (X link, with audio). The skipper talked about how he had seen Weathers up close earlier in his career, as Schumaker was employed by the Padres through the 2021 season. Schumaker spoke about how Weathers managed to rise to the majors quickly due to his fastball but that hitters started to adjust. That prompted Weathers to spend the most recent offseason working to improve the other pitches in his arsenal, which seems to be paying off so far this year.
“He bought a TrackMan and different things and created kind of his own pitching lab back home,” Schumaker said, “and figured out how to spin the ball better and really manipulate the changeup into a way where he can throw it for strikes and to throw it strike-to-ball when he needed as well to get swing-and-miss.”
Weathers threw his four-seam fastball more than 50% of the time in each of his first three big league seasons, according to Statcast, but that number is down 40.2% in 2024. He’s going to the changeup 26.1% of the time but also throwing a sweeper at a 20.4% rate, a sinker at a 12.2% clip and a smattering of sliders as well. Opponents are hitting .174 against the changeup with a .349 slugging percentage, while those numbers are just .132 and .211 against the sweeper. The changeup has a 40.1% whiff rate and 36.8% hard hit rate, with the sweeper getting whiffs on 55.2% of swings and hit hard (95 mph or greater) just 11.8% of the time hitters make contact.
This is still a small sample size of just 12 starts, but Weathers was previously a touted prospect and has made a concerted effort to evolve. Since he charged so quickly to the majors, his struggles occurred at an age when many pitchers are still in college or climbing the minor league ladder. He’s still only 24 years old despite this technically being his fourth season in the majors.
Perhaps the Marlins have found a solid piece for their rotation from that small trade last year, which would be significant for them. Weathers came into this season with one year and 66 days of major league service time. That means he won’t qualify for arbitration until after 2025 and can be controlled through 2028.
Though they once seemed to be overloaded with starting pitching options, the group has been thinned out recently. They traded Pablo López and Jake Eder in recent years. Alcantara and Pere had Tommy John surgery this year. Well-regarded prospect Dax Fulton had a UCL repair (not a full Tommy John surgery) last summer and has yet to pitch this season. Sixto Sanchez has been consistently hobbled by shoulder injuries. And, Miami’s poor performance this year could lead to further selling, with Luzardo and Rogers speculative possibilities.
Even if those arms do end up being traded — Luzardo, in particular, seems likely — it’s possible to imagine the Marlins having a strong rotation consisting of Weathers, Alcántara, Pérez, Meyer, Cabrera and Garrett by late 2025, with all of those names controllable through at least 2027. Trades of Luzardo and others on the roster could bring in further rotation candidates as well. Plans rarely go that smoothly, as injuries and changes in performance will undoubtedly occur, but the continued evolution of Weathers is a huge bright spot during a season that’s otherwise been bleak in Miami.
Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Boras Four, Cubs, Blue Jays, Gambling
I'm back for this week's mailbag! We've got questions on the Boras Four, the Cubs' plan at catcher, available righty relievers, Juan Soto's defense, the Blue Jays' offense, the recent gambling suspensions, my one-third award picks, and much more.
Doug asks:
Do you think that front offices will feel even more compelled to depress free agent salaries after all of the prolonged drama about "The Boras Four" and none of those players panning out to be very good? Will any of Chapman, Bellinger, Snell, or Montgomery opt out of their contract?
Owners and players will be diametrically opposed on player salaries until the end of time, or at least until the end of Major League Baseball. But to your point, it stands to reason that if the early performance of the late-signing Boras pitchers holds up, more front offices will be wary of giving big AAVs to hurlers signing well into spring training, even on short-term deals.
Blake Snell has been terrible, and since debuting April 8th has separate IL stints for adductor and groin strains. Snell recently told reporters, "The one thing I would say is that big-league spring training, you need it. You have to go to spring training. I hope teams see that. I don’t know what [Jordan] Montgomery is doing, but I bet it’s tough for him."
Montgomery, who expressed a similar sentiment, sits at a 5.48 ERA after eight starts, with the worst strikeout rate of his career.
Some pitchers have succeeded after signing late, notably Ervin Santana signing on 3-12-14 and putting up a 3.2 WAR season for the Braves. But both Snell and Montgomery signed later than Santana did, and most examples show pitchers struggling without a normal spring training.
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2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition
We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.
That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.
- Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee
Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.
The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.
It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.
- Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee
Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.
Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.
- Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end
As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.
His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.
- Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results
Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.
He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.
Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.
- Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end
In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.
A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.
- Lucas Giolito (30): $19MM player option
Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.
Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.
- Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee
The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.
Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.
- Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee
Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.
- Clayton Kershaw (37): $5MM+ player option
The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.
It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.
- Sean Manaea (33): $13.5MM player option
Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.
If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.
- Nick Martinez (34): $12MM player option
Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.
On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.
- Jordan Montgomery (32): Conditional $20MM option if Montgomery reaches 10 starts
Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.
The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.
- Emilio Pagán (34): $8MM player option ($250K buyout)
The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.
Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.
- Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee
The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.
- Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee
Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.
The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.
- Hunter Renfroe (33): $7.5MM player option ($1MM buyout)
The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.
- Blake Snell (32): $30MM player option
The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.
Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.
- Chris Stratton (34): $4.5MM player option ($500K buyout)
The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.
He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.
- Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched
Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.
At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.
- Michael Wacha (33): $16MM player option
Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.
He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.