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Looking For A Match In An Eloy Jimenez Trade

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The White Sox appear likely to be among the most active teams on the trade market this offseason. On the heels of a 101-loss campaign that spurred a change in front office leadership, freshly-minted GM Chris Getz has made clear that the club is operating with no untouchables this offseason, a stance the club backed up by dealing left-hander Aaron Bummer to the Braves last week in a six-player deal. While right-hander Dylan Cease figures to garner plenty of attention as a potential trade chip, he was far from the only player hailing from the south side of Chicago to land on MLBTR’s list of the top 25 offseason trade candidates. Cease clocked in at #6 on that list, but just a few spots lower at #12 is slugger Eloy Jimenez, who the club acquired alongside Cease in the deal that sent Jose Quintana to the north side back in 2017.

Getz has made no secret of the fact that Jimenez is available this offseason, noting publicly that teams are interested in his services while adding that “it just has to make sense for both sides” in order for a deal to come together this winter. While Jimenez once looked to be a potential franchise cornerstone in left field, his star has dimmed in recent years due to injuries and under-performance. Since the start of the 2021 season, Jimenez has appeared in just 259 games between multiple hamstring issues and an appendectomy. That translates to just 53.3% of the Chicago’s regular season contests over that span.

When Jimenez has managed to take the field, he’s alternated flashes of greatness with relative mediocrity; though he posted strong numbers in the shortened 2020 campaign and in his 84-game 2022 season, with wRC+ figures of 138 and 143 respectively, Jimenez’s performance in both 2021 and 2023 was far more pedestrian. 2023, in particular, saw Jimenez slash just .272/.317/.441 (105 wRC+) with 18 homers in 489 trips to the plate. While those numbers are decent, they’re a far cry from what you’d expect from a player best suited as a full-time DH who is guaranteed $16MM in 2024 between a $13MM salary and a $3MM buyout on a 2024 club option.

In spite of Jimenez’s flaws, however, there’s plenty of reason for rival clubs to have interest in his services. After all, the 2022 season showed what a threat he can be at the plate when he’s right, as he hit .295 and crushed 16 homers in just 327 plate appearances all while walking at a respectable 8.6% clip. If a club manages to get Jimenez back on track, they’d have a All Star caliber slugger under relatively affordable team control for three seasons; Jimenez’s contract includes a pair of club options for the 2024 and 2025 campaigns, valued at $16.5MM and $18.5MM respectively. Jimenez also has youth on his side, as he’ll play next season at age-27 after celebrating his birthday next week.

So, which teams could make sense as potential partners for the White Sox in a Jimenez trade? The Royals, Twins, Guardians, and Tigers are all fairly easy to eliminate due to the rarity of in-division deals involving players of Jimenez’s magnitude. The Rockies, A’s, Nationals, and Pirates are all fairly unlikely to compete in 2024, while the Yankees, Giants and Phillies are all relatively set at DH heading into next season. The Padres, Rays, Reds, Cardinals and Orioles all figure to focus more on adding pitching rather than stacking up additional bats this offseason. The Blue Jays, Cubs and Astros all appear more likely to target left-handed additions to the lineup than a righty slugger like Jimenez, to say nothing of the questionable optics of dealing Jimenez back to the north side. A look at each of the other ten teams…

Best Fits:

  • Diamondbacks: The reigning NL champions figure to attempt to improve upon their 84-win campaign in 2023, and have already added Eugenio Suarez at the hot corner in pursuit of that goal. While Suarez and Christian Walker give them some much-needed thump from the right-hand side, Arizona still has a clear vacancy at DH that Jimenez would be a solid option to fill. Meanwhile, the Snakes are deep in young, affordable players like Jake McCarthy and Dominic Fletcher who could be of interest to a White Sox club looking for upgrades in virtually all areas of the roster.
  • Mariners: Seattle’s lineup took a hit in the aforementioned Suarez deal and the addition of Jimenez, who could slide into the DH slot vacated by the recently non-tendered Mike Ford, could help to return some thump to the club’s lineup. While Jimenez profiles best as a DH, he could also theoretically chip in on occasion in left field, where the Mariners currently lack a permanent solution and figure to rely on the likes of Cade Marlowe, Sam Haggerty, and Dylan Moore. While Seattle’s young arms are likely too valuable to deal for Jimenez, it’s possible the White Sox could target a post-hype youngster like Taylor Trammell in a deal with the Mariners.
  • Marlins: Miami is among the best fits for Jimenez, as evidenced by their interest in his services at this year’s trade deadline. With righty slugger Jorge Soler having departed the club in favor of free agency, the addition of Jimenez would fill the void left by Soler at a price point not far above the $12MM AAV Soler would’ve been on the books for in 2024 had he not opted out of his deal. In exchange, the Sox could look to add one of Miami’s many young infielders without a clear path to playing time such as Jacob Amaya, Jordan Groshans, or Xavier Edwards.

Next Tier Down:

  • Angels: While the Angels are surely going to make every effort to retain franchise face Shohei Ohtani, the expectation around the league is that he will depart for another club this offseason. Should that reality come to pass, Jimenez could make sense as a replacement DH should the club have hopes of contending in 2024 without Ohtani on the team. That being said, the Halos already largely emptied out their farm system over the summer in a failed bid to reach the postseason while Ohtani was still under contract, and it’s unclear if they would be willing to part with even more young talent in hopes of contending in 2024.
  • Brewers: Much like the Marlins, the Brewers were connected to Jimenez at this year’s trade deadline, and it’s easy to see why: Brewers hitters posted a wRC+ of just 92 in 2023, including a pathetic 79 wRC+ from the club’s DH slot. Jimenez would make for a massive improvement on that, and could make sense for Milwaukee if they look to continue contending in 2024. That being said, the club has already lost Craig Counsell and Brandon Woodruff from their 2023 squad and could deal more talent before the offseason is done. Given the uncertainty surrounding the club, it’s anyone’s guess if Jimenez and his $13MM salary in 2024 still fit into Milwaukee’s plans.
  • Mets: With the Mets seemingly facing an uncertain future of their own, they’re hardly an obvious pick for Jimenez’s services this offseason. That being said, Jimenez seems unlikely to require an exorbitant prospect cost in trade given his recent struggles, and the Mets could be among the teams best positioned to take a gamble on him. Jimenez’s salary would hardly be a needle-mover for the big-spending Mets, and Jimenez could be a stalwart slugger at DH for two more seasons if things go well in 2024, providing some protection for the club should Pete Alonso depart in free agency next offseason.
  • Red Sox: Boston’s primary DH this season was Justin Turner, who returned to free agency earlier this month. With a hole at DH and an offense that posted a wRC+ of just 99 in 2023, it’s easy to see how Jimenez could be a fit for Boston. That being said, the Red Sox are seemingly more focused on pitching additions than adding to their hitting corps, and left fielder Masataka Yoshida’s rough defensive metrics in left field could indicate that sliding him into the DH slot and giving outfield reps to youngsters like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could be the club’s ideal solution.

Longer Shots:

  • Braves: While the Braves have a clear need for an additional bat in their left field/DH mix following the departure of Eddie Rosario, both Jimenez and incumbent slugger Marcell Ozuna are best served as full-timers in the DH slot. What’s more, the Braves appear focused on improving their pitching staff, without much clarity on their available payroll space. There figure to be cheaper options available on the outfield market than Jimenez who may better fit Atlanta’s needs, even if they likely lack the upside of Jimenez.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers certainly make sense as a potential suitor for Jimenez on paper given their vacancy at DH, but it’s an open secret that the club’s top priority this offseason is Shohei Ohtani. What’s more, the appears to be mutual interest in a reunion with DH-only slugger J.D. Martinez in the event that Ohtani lands elsewhere, meaning that a deal for Jimenez would likely be a Plan C for the Dodgers, barring a willingness to give him an everyday role in left field.
  • Rangers: The reigning World Series champions have been extremely aggressive in recent offseason as they looked to upgrade their club, and without a surefire DH option for the 2024 season it would be foolish to entirely count them out from swinging a deal for Jimenez. That being said, a reunion with Mitch Garver could make more sense for the Rangers if they want a regular player at DH, while the presence of super-utility youngster Ezequiel Duran could allow them to use the DH slot to afford regular players in both the infield and outfield partial rest days. Either option could be preferable for the Rangers to committing significant cash to Jimenez, particularly given their pitching needs and the potential revenue uncertainty facing the club next season.

Five Non-Tendered Starters To Keep An Eye On This Offseason

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Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees club’s allow players under team control to head for the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. The 2023 campaign saw the likes of Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario go on to have strong seasons after being non-tendered the offseason prior, and yesterday we discussed five hitters who were let go by their team’s prior to last week’s non-tender deadline.

While the best pieces among last offseason’s crop of non-tenders were both position players, recent history has offered a handful of arms who went on to provide significant value to teams after being non-tendered earlier in their career, with Kevin Gausman and Taijuan Walker standing as two of the more recent examples. The pair eventually went on to sign multi-year pacts worth $110MM and $72MM, respectively, though it’s anyone’s guess if any of members of this year’s group of non-tendered hurlers will manage to reach those same heights.

This year’s crop of arms won’t benefit from an otherwise weak free agent class the way this year’s hitters will, as the class of free agent starters is deep in potential options, ranging from top-of-the-line aces like Yoshinobu Yamamoto to interesting bounceback candidates like Jack Flaherty and Frankie Montas. Even so, clubs can never have enough starting pitching depth, and each of these arms could at least in theory provide a club with valuable innings in the future if given the chance to do so. Without further ado, let’s take a look at five starters who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2024 season in parentheses.

Kolby Allard (26)

Not too long ago, Allard was among the game’s most highly-touted prospects. After being selected fourteenth overall by the Braves in the 2015 draft, Allard was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport by the time he reached Double-A in 2017. After cruising through that campaign with a 3.18 ERA across 150 innings of work at just 19 years old, Allard got his first taste of big league action with Atlanta in 2018, though his stint in the majors lasted just eight innings. After being traded to the Rangers in 2019, Allard spent parts of three seasons swinging in and out of the Rangers rotation, with a 5.70 ERA and 4.96 FIP in 203 2/3 innings of work.

A failed stint in the bullpen in 2022 led the Rangers to deal Allard back to the Braves in exchange for Jake Odorizzi. Allard missed nearly the entire 2023 campaign with oblique and shoulder issues, leading the Braves to non-tender the lefty. While Allard has struggled to establish himself at the big league level, he’ll pitch next season at just 26 years old and advanced metrics such as xFIP (4.57) and SIERA (4.31) have seen his performance as roughly league average since the start of the 2021 campaign, lending credence to the hope that the lefty could still prove to be a solid back-end starter one day.

Yonny Chirinos (30)

Chirinos began his big league career back in 2018 as a member of the Rays, and was a quality arm for the club in a variety of roles from 2018-20. In those three seasons, the right-hander posted a 3.65 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.17 FIP while appearing in 47 games (28 starts) and pitching a total of 234 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, Chirinos underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2020 and didn’t return to the mound until late in the 2022 campaign.

Chirinos struggled in his first full season back from surgery in 2023. Though he posted a decent 4.02 ERA in 62 2/3 innings of work as a swingman for the Rays, his peripherals (including a 5.49 FIP and an 11.8% strikeout rate) indicated his performance had slipped considerably. That led Tampa to part ways with Chirinos, who was ultimately claimed off waivers by the Braves. Chirinos’s results took a turn for the worse in Atlanta, as he was blown up for a 9.27 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work before being placed on the injured list with elbow inflammation. While Chirinos struggled through his first full season back from Tommy John this year, it’s easy to see the right-hander becoming a valuable, versatile depth piece for a contending club again in 2024 if he manages to get healthy.

Dakota Hudson (29)

A first-round selection by the Cardinals in the 2016 draft, Hudson was a quick riser who made his big league debut with the club back in 2018. The groundballer significantly outperformed his peripheral stats early in his career to perform at a mid-rotation level for the Cardinals, with a sterling 3.17 ERA in 241 innings of work 2018-20 despite a 4.74 FIP. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery cost Hudson almost all of the 2021 season, and upon returning to the Cardinals’ rotation in 2022 his results diminished significantly. In 221 frames since the start of the 2022 campaign, Hudson has posted a 4.64 ERA (88 ERA+) and nearly matching 4.60 FIP as his strikeout rate has dipped to just 13% against a 10% walk rate. That led the Cardinals to non-tender Hudson even in spite of their extreme need for rotation depth headed into 2024.

Brutal as the past two seasons have been for Hudson, it’s worth noting that he still generates grounders at a elite clip; among pitchers with at least 200 innings of work over the past two years, Hudson’s 52.5% groundball rate ranks ninth, sandwiched between Sandy Alcantara and Ranger Suarez. Though the Cardinals were unable to trade Hudson before last week’s non-tender deadline, it’s certainly feasible that a team in need of starting depth could look to take a flier on Hudson’s groundball abilities in hopes they can return him to the form he flashed earlier in his career.

Spencer Turnbull (31)

After being drafted by the Tigers in the second round of the 2014 draft, Turnbull eventually reached the majors for a brief cup of coffee in 2018 before receiving a regular spot in the club’s starting rotation during the 2019 campaign. That rookie campaign saw Turnbull post a 4.61 ERA that was slightly better than league average (103 ERA+) in 148 1/3 innings of work, though his 3.99 FIP hinted at another gear to his performance. After taking a small step forward during the shortened 2020 season (3.97 ERA, 3.49 FIP in 11 starts), Turnbull appeared to put it all together in the 2021 campaign with a 2.88 ERA and 2.97 FIP before his season was cut short after just nine starts by Tommy John surgery.

Turnbull returned in early 2023 and appeared poised to step back into the club’s rotation, but a mix of injuries, under-performance, and a dispute between Turnbull and Detroit brass over service time led to the sides parting ways this offseason with Turnbull having posted a 7.26 ERA over seven starts at the big league level. Despite those brutal numbers, Turnbull is nonetheless among the more interesting bounceback candidates on the open market this offseason given his recent health struggles and the incredible upside he flashed during the 2021 campaign.

Brandon Woodruff (31)

This list wouldn’t be complete without a mention of Woodruff, who has emerged as one of the game’s best starters in recent years. Since his first season as a regular member of the Brewers’ rotation in 2019, Woodruff has dominated to the tune of a 2.93 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 103 starts while collecting two All Star appearances and a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting back in 2021. Woodruff was dominant as ever in 2023, with a 2.28 ERA and a 29.2% strikeout rate this season. Unfortunately, he was dogged by injuries throughout the season and limited to just eleven starts before undergoing shoulder surgery last month.

Unlike the other arms on this list, there are zero questions about Woodruff’s ability, as he’s a consensus front-of-the-rotation arm in terms of pure talent. Despite that, the Brewers made the difficult decision to non-tender him last week due to questions surrounding his availability for the 2024 campaign. It’s unclear if Woodruff will be able to return to the mound at all in 2024 following his surgery, though the right-hander expressed optimism earlier this offseason that he would be able to pitch again sometime next summer. Still, that uncertainty led the Brewers to part ways with the right-hander rather than tender him a contract that MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected to be worth $11.6MM, a hefty sum for a small-market club to commit to a pitcher who might not be available next season. Though Woodruff’s timetable for return is uncertain, he has the potential to be among the most impactful pitchers in the entire free agent class based on his track record over the past several seasons. That combination of risk and tantalizing upside leave Woodruff as one of the most interesting free agents not only on this list but in the offseason’s entire class.

Five Non-Tendered Bats To Keep An Eye On This Offseason

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Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees club’s allow players under team control to head for the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. Last offseason saw one of the most notable non-tenders in recent memory as the Dodgers made the decision to part ways with Cody Bellinger. Bellinger, of course, went on to sign with the Cubs and post a resurgent season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs en route to a top-10 finish in NL MVP voting. Bellinger’s strong season earned him the #2 spot on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list this offseason, where we projected him for a twelve-year, $264MM deal.

A player of Bellinger’s caliber- a two-time All Star with MVP and Rookie of the Year awards under his belt- being non-tendered is exceptionally rare, and there’s little reason to believe that any of this offseason’s non-tendered players will reach those sort of heights in 2024. That being said, plenty of players wind up non-tendered and go on to have strong careers afterwards: Kyle Schwarber, Jeimer Candelario, Kevin Gausman, and Matt Strahm are among the players in recent memory who have gone on to find success as big league regulars following a non-tender.

With an unusually weak class of free agent hitters on tap for this offseason, teams figure to be more incentivized than ever to uncover a diamond in the rough in search of offensive upgrades this winter. Let’s take a look at five hitters who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the coming offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2024 season in parentheses.

Mike Ford (31)

Ford made his MLB debut with the Yankees in 2019. He hit exceptionally well in a part-time role, slashing .259/.350/.559 (134 wRC+) with 12 homers in just 163 trips to the plate. Despite that strong performance, Ford would not clear 100 plate appearances in a season again until 2022, when he struggled through 50 games at the big league level while bouncing between the Braves, Angels, Mariners, and Giants. In 149 trips to the plate between the aforementioned four clubs, Ford hit a paltry .206/.302/.313 (81 wRC+). He received another big league opportunity in Seattle this season, however, and managed to make the most of it with a solid rebound campaign.

Upon being called up in early June, Ford played on a semi-regular basis with a solid .228/.323/.475 slash line with 16 home runs in 251 trips to the plate. Overall, that performance was good for a well above-average wRC+ of 123. Despite his successful season, the Mariners non-tendered Ford rather than offer him an arbitration-level contract that MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected would be worth $1.5MM. Still, Ford figures to be a cheap source of optionable left-handed power for a club with an opening at either first base or DH, and could prove to be a solid pickup for teams looking to boost their offense in 2024 who can afford to offer him at-bats.

Kyle Lewis (28)

After being selected eleventh-overall by the Mariners in the 2016 draft, Lewis began his big league career with a bang by slashing .268/.293/.592 with six home runs during an 18-game cup of coffee towards the end of the 2019 season. The strong initial performance earned Lewis an everyday role in center field during the shortened 2020 season. It was an opportunity Lewis made the most of as he slashed .262/.364/.437 (127 wRC+) while playing quality defense in center en route to an AL Rookie of the Year award.

Unfortunately, since have gone off the rails for Lewis since then. Knee injuries, a concussion, and illness have sidelined him much of the time since then, and he’s hit a paltry .203/.281/.342 in 70 MLB games when he has been able to take the field. That being said, Lewis hit exceptionally well at the Triple-A level for the Diamondbacks this year, with a .371/.457/.641 slash line in 293 trips to the plate. That performance wasn’t enough to convince Arizona to spend a projected $1.61MM on Lewis’s services in arbitration this year, but it’s certainly possible it signals that Lewis could return to being an above-average regular in the big leagues if he can stay healthy long enough to find an extended opportunity.

Nick Senzel (29)

Senzel was the second overall pick in the 2016 draft and made his big league debut with the Reds back in 2019. He performed acceptably in his rookie season, adjusting on the fly to become the club’s regular center fielder after spending his entire professional career prior to 2019 on the infield dirt. Still, his bat left something to be desired as he slashed just .256/.315/.427, good for a wRC+ of 87. Senzel struggled to stay healthy following the 2019 campaign, however, appearing in just 59 games over the next two seasons. He returned to semi-regular playing time in 2021, but struggled badly at the plate with a weak slash line of just .231/.296/.306 in 420 trips to the plate.

Though his offense improved slightly in 2023 as he slashed .236/.297/.399 with 13 home runs in 330 plate appearances as he split time between second base, third base, and all three outfield spots, that performance did not convince the Reds to tender him a contract worth a projected $3MM this offseason. Senzel’s non-tender was hardly a surprise given Cincinnati’s excess of positional talent and his recent struggles. That said, it’s easy to see Senzel being a valuable piece of a club’s bench mix in 2024 given his versatility and career .287/.334/.460 slash line against southpaws and it’s certainly feasible a player of his prospect pedigree could take a step forward if allotted regular playing time.

Jacob Stallings (34)

By far the oldest player on this list, Stallings is a veteran of eight MLB seasons and first joined the Pirates organization as a seventh-round pick all the way back in 2012. After struggling to catch on in a regular role early in his career, Stallings became the regular catcher in Pittsburgh during the 2019 season and spent the next three years as a quality regular behind the plate, slashing a decent .251/.331/.374 (89 wRC+) while playing excellent defense behind the plate that earned him a Gold Glove award in 2021. Unfortunately, Stallings’s career took a turn for the worse upon being traded to Miami. Over the past two seasons, he’s slashed just .210/.287/.290 in 203 games as his defensive metrics have collapsed behind the plate. Those struggles made it an easy decision for the Marlins to non-tender Stallings rather than offer him a contract that projected to be worth $3.6MM for the 2024 season.

Stallings is perhaps the least likely on this list to be a productive regular in 2024. After all, he’s been well below average on both sides of the ball the past two seasons and is entering his mid-thirties. That being said, He’s just two seasons removed from a 2.5 fWAR campaign that saw him post slightly better offensive numbers than the average catcher while being among the strongest defenders behind the plate in the league. Given the constant need for catching depth around the game, it seems likely Stallings will be afforded plenty of opportunity to recapture his old form as a solid two-way catcher, and he’d only need to find success at one or the other to be a solid backup option.

Juan Yepez (26)

Perhaps the most unusual entrant on this list, Yepez was non-tendered by the Cardinals last week despite not yet being eligible for arbitration. Yepez made his big league debut as a 24-year-old during the 2022 season, and made a solid impression during his rookie campaign. Though he was blocked at his native position of first base by Paul Goldschmidt, Yepez split time between DH and all four corner spots while slashing a solid .253/.296/.447 with 12 home runs in 274 trips to the plate. Unfortunately, Yepez struggled badly in his sophomore season, slashing just .183/.246/.300 in his 65 trips to the plate in the majors this year. His time in Triple-A didn’t go much better, as he posted a mediocre slash line of .255/.323/.414 in 86 games at the level.

While that down season led the Cardinals to part ways with Yepez to clear room on the 40-man roster, it’s worth noting that Yepez was blocked by an already-crowded Cardinals outfield mix at the big league level. Given his limited opportunities at the big league level to this point in his career, his relative youth, and a career .273/.349/.515 slash line at the Triple-A level, it’s easy to see how Yepez could be the latest late-career breakout candidate to emerge from St. Louis, not unlike Adolis Garcia, Luke Voit, and Patrick Wisdom before him.

MLBTR Poll: Should The Cubs Trade Christopher Morel?

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On the heels of a 83-79 season that saw the Cubs finish just outside of the NL playoff picture, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office appear poised to be aggressive this offseason in their pursuit of returning the club to the postseason for the first time in a 162-game campaign since 2018. Chicago already shocked the baseball world this offseason by hiring Craig Counsell to manage the club on a record-setting contract and has been connected to high-profile free agents such as NPB arms Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, and Yuki Matsui as well as center fielder Cody Bellinger and first baseman Rhys Hoskins, to say nothing of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.

In addition to the rumors swirling around the Cubs and many of the league’s top free agents, the Cubs have been connected to many of the league’s top trade candidates including Padres outfielder Juan Soto, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, and even Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes. At the center of many of those hypothetical trade discussions has been young slugger Christopher Morel, whose name has appeared in early offseason trade rumors so frequently that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco ranked him #22 in his list of the Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates.

Morel made his MLB debut back in May of 2022, just before his 23rd birthday. The youngster initially broke onto the club’s roster due to an injury to Jason Heyward, which provided Morel with the opportunity to get semi-regular reps in center field with the big league club despite having never played above the Double-A level to that point. Morel made the most of his opportunity, sticking on the club’s roster throughout the rest of the 2022 season and slashing .235/.308/.433 (108 wRC+) in 113 games while splitting time between center field, second base, third base, and shortstop.

That above-average offensive production and impressive versatility in Morel’s rookie season gave him the look of a potential big league regular, though there were certainly flaws in his profile. Morel was a well below average defender in center and seemed to be a fringy defender at both third base and shortstop as well, despite a solid showing at second base. On top of the defensive question marks, it was fair to wonder if Morel’s above-average slash line was carried by a hot first half; the youngster slashed just .194/269/.376 in 184 trips to the plate during the second half in 2022. Between that late-season slump and his 32.2% strikeout rate, which was sixth-highest in the majors among players with at least 400 plate appearances that year, it was fair to wonder if Morel’s production would be sustainable entering his sophomore season.

The questions about Morel’s glove were only exacerbated by the signing of Dansby Swanson, who slotted in at shortstop and kicked Nico Hoerner over to second base in doing so. With Hoerner now an obvious everyday solution at second base, Morel entered the 2023 season without a clear role on the big league club and started the season at Triple-A. He tore the cover off the ball with a comical .330/.425/.730 slash line in 29 games with the club’s Iowa affiliate before the Cubs had seen enough to bring him up to the big leagues. Though he logged occasional time at all three outfield spots, second base, third base, and shortstop, Morel spent much of the season as Chicago’s primary DH.

Morel took to his new role quite well, slashing .247/.313/.508 (119 wRC+) with 26 home runs across just 429 trips to the plate. Only Aaron Judge, J.D. Martinez, Yordan Alvarez, and Nolan Gorman hit more home runs in under 500 trips to the plate this year. What’s more, Morel’s .260 ISO ranked sixteenth among players with at least 400 big league plate appearances in 2023, ranking just behind Jorge Soler and just ahead of Ronald Acuna Jr. Though Morel’s strikeout rate of 31% is still high enough to raise plenty of eyebrows, the youngster managed to establish himself as a quality big-league power bat as the Cubs’ regular DH.

As previously mentioned, Morel has found himself at the center of trade rumors this offseason with the Cubs potentially in line to be aggressive this winter. Reports have suggested Morel as a potential piece of the return for both Soto and Alonso should the Cubs look to deal for either player, though other reports have indicated the Cubs might be hesitant to include Morel in a deal for a rental piece.

The decision on whether or not to shop Morel this offseason is an interesting one for the Cubs. The youngster is not yet eligible for arbitration and figures to remain under team control for five more seasons before being first eligible for free agency after the 2028 season. His power-oriented bat could prove crucial for the Cubs in 2024, particularly after the 2023 team landed middle-of-the-pack in terms of both ISO and home runs this past season, and it’s always possible that a player as young as Morel manages to find another gear and break out. That sort of upside could make it hard for the Cubs to part with Morel, especially given the amount of team control he has remaining.

That being said, with Nico Hoerner locked in at second base for the next three seasons while Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are set to patrol the outfield corners for that same term, Morel seems unlikely to find a long-term position in Chicago— at least, unless he takes to a new position this winter. What’s more, Morel’s propensity for striking out combined with just average walk rates for his career give him an uncertain floor as a player; if his power production dips, it’s possible the Cubs could be looking at a roughly league average offensive contributor taking up their DH slot on most days. That risk could make it sensible for Chicago to attempt to sell high on Morel this offseason.

What do MLBTR readers think about Chicago’s dilemma? Should the Cubs look to move Morel now, given his value may never be higher? Or should they hold onto him in hopes of a breakout that could make him an impact player in spite of his limited defensive value? Have your say in the poll below:

(poll link for app users)

Should The Cubs Trade Christopher Morel This Offseason?
Yes, sell high on Morel and shop him aggressively. 40.43% (2,962 votes)
Listen to offers on Morel, but don't trade him for a rental player. 36.90% (2,704 votes)
No, hold onto Morel and see how he develops. 22.67% (1,661 votes)
Total Votes: 7,327

12 Possible Fits For A Tyler Glasnow Trade

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Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow is among this offseason’s top trade candidates. He’s set to make $25MM in his final season before free agency. That’d be the largest single-year salary in franchise history. The Rays committed to that number not long ago, signing the 6’8″ hurler to an extension in August 2022. Even with various subsequent injuries to their rotation, Tampa Bay could move Glasnow to bring in cheaper talent.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted this evening that a pair of rival executives believe the Rays will pull the trigger on a Glasnow deal this offseason. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal offered a similar sentiment in an appearance on Foul Territory (X link). Rosenthal suggested Glasnow could be the likeliest of the group of top starters who are frequently mentioned as trade candidates — also including Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber — to move.

If the Rays did pull the trigger on a deal this winter, it’d have to be to a club with legitimate playoff aspirations in 2024. There’s little reason for teams like the Nationals or Rockies to acquire a star pitcher with one year left on his deal. An acquiring team would need to be willing to accommodate a $25MM salary. It’s hard to envision Tampa Bay making a trade of this magnitude within division.

That narrows things down somewhat but still leaves various potential suitors. Let’s identify some fits (listed alphabetically). All salary projections are courtesy of Roster Resource.

  • Angels: The Angels arguably stretch the definition of “legitimate playoff aspirations,” especially if Shohei Ohtani signs elsewhere. They have made clear they’re not going to rebuild in any case. Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Griffin Canning are solid rotation pieces. They’re not true #1 arms, though, something Glasnow would provide.
  • Astros: Houston will be without Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. into the middle of the season. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier make for a strong top three. Hunter Brown and J.P. France tailed off a bit as their rookie seasons wound down. Glasnow fits on paper, although it’s unclear whether the Astros would take on his salary. GM Dana Brown has downplayed the financial flexibility at their disposal.
  • Braves: Atlanta made a run at Aaron Nola before his seven-year contract to return to Philadelphia. The Braves subsequently added Reynaldo López on a three-year pact and indicated he could return to the rotation. That doesn’t preclude them from exploring clearer upgrades to join Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton in the middle to upper part of the staff. The farm system has thinned but president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos hasn’t shied away from aggressive strikes on the trade market to support an elite core.
  • Cardinals: St. Louis has sought three starting pitchers this offseason. They’ve added two veteran innings eaters on one-year deals, bringing in Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson on consecutive days. That raises the floor but still leaves them in clear need of a top-of-the-rotation arm. St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak acknowledged the team has yet to dig deeply into trade possibilities (link via Katie Woo of the Athletic). That’ll change now that they’ve added some stability without a ton of upside on the open market.
  • Cubs: Marcus Stroman declined his player option for 2024. That leaves the Cubs with a front three of Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon. There’s clearly room for another high-end starter. Chicago isn’t far off this past season’s Opening Day payroll but projects around $25MM below their franchise high mark. They’re about $50MM south of the lowest luxury tax threshold.
  • Diamondbacks: Taking on a $25MM player isn’t typical operating procedure for the Diamondbacks. Yet it’s something they could consider this winter on the heels of a World Series run. Arizona’s $103MM projected payroll is around $13MM south of this past season’s mark. It’s nearly $30MM below their franchise high. Adding another starter to join Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt is a clear priority.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers are going to add a couple starting pitchers. Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías hit free agency. Kershaw’s return timeline is uncertain after shoulder surgery. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May will miss part or all of next season. Walker Buehler is back but coming off a second Tommy John surgery. Behind him are a few second-year hurlers (Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan) and swingman Ryan Yarbrough. Any of the top free agent or trade candidates on the rotation front make sense.
  • Giants: San Francisco’s projected payroll sits at $148MM, about $40MM shy of this year’s mark. Logan Webb is an ace. The rest of the rotation is in question. Alex Cobb is coming off hip surgery. Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling had injuries and/or underperformance in 2023. Top prospect Kyle Harrison is still unproven. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has been reluctant to make free agent splashes for starting pitching. A Glasnow trade would add an impact arm without the kind of long-term rotation commitment to which this front office has been averse.
  • Mets: The Mets are likely to bring in multiple starters. Kodai Senga and José Quintana are the only locks for the Opening Day rotation. It’s debatable whether they’re positioned to part with noteworthy young talent to add a rental with the team coming off a 75-87 season. New York has made clear they’re not punting the 2024 season entirely, though. Adding a high-end starter is one step of many required to put themselves back in the conversation with the Braves and Phillies in the NL East.
  • Padres: San Diego is down to Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish after seeing each of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez hit free agency. The Padres are reportedly trimming payroll, which could rule them out on a $25MM arm, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never been afraid to move things around to accommodate impact talent. The Snell trade with Tampa Bay has been one of the best moves of his tenure.
  • Rangers: The defending champions could lose Jordan Montgomery to free agency. Jacob deGrom won’t be ready until the season’s second half. Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney is still a good starting five. They could nevertheless take a swing for Glasnow, building a potential playoff rotation consisting of Glasnow, deGrom, Scherzer and Eovaldi as they try to repeat.
  • Reds: Cincinnati’s situation is similar to Arizona’s. The Reds aren’t big spenders but could be in position for a lofty one-year salary for a #1 starter. They’re projected at $52MM for next season, $30MM below this year’s Opening Day mark. The young position player group put the Reds on the fringe of postseason contention. Adding a starter to lead a staff that also includes Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Andrew Abbott is the next step.

MLBTR Poll: Should The Twins Trade Kyle Farmer?

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The Twins are reportedly planning to scale back payroll into the $125-140MM range — below the approximate $154MM mark at which they opened the 2023 season. That has naturally led to trade speculation involving a handful of veteran players on the roster.

Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco are perhaps Minnesota’s most desirable realistic trade candidates. Set for respective $10MM and $10.5MM salaries, they’re each above-average regulars who would clearly be of interest to other teams. While they’re both viable possibilities, it’d perhaps be an easier sell for the front office to part with Kyle Farmer. He’s not as impactful offensively and has only spent one year in the Twin Cities — in contrast to Polanco and Kepler, career-long members of the organization who have been with the team for more than a decade.

It is somewhat surprising that Farmer is still on the roster. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the utility infielder for a $6.6MM salary in his final season of arbitration. That made him a non-tender candidate. Dan Hayes of the Athletic wrote two weeks ago that Minnesota was exploring trade options on Farmer, which seemed to suggest they could simply move on if they didn’t line up a swap before last Friday’s non-tender deadline.

That didn’t end up being the case. Now that Minnesota has tendered Farmer a contract, he’s set for a payday that could land in the $6-7MM range. That doesn’t preclude the front office from continuing to explore trade options. Minnesota’s infield depth still leads to questions about how they should proceed.

Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien had excellent showings in the final few months. Lewis has clearly claimed the everyday third base job so long as he’s healthy. Julien is stretched defensively at second base but hit .263/.381/.459 through his first 408 MLB plate appearances. Polanco is one of the better bat-first middle infielders in the league. Even if the Twins wanted to get Julien more at-bats as the designated hitter, a starting infield of Alex Kirilloff, Polanco, Carlos Correa and Lewis has significant upside.

Everyone in that group aside from Julien has a notable injury history as well. The front office surely feels better about it if it’s backed up by a utility player of Farmer’s caliber. At the same time, there’s an argument the Twins have bigger needs. They could look for a right-handed hitting first base/DH to complement the lefty-swinging Kirilloff and Julien. Sonny Gray’s expected free agent departure thins the rotation. They may need to re-sign or replace Michael A. Taylor given the likelihood they’ll need to manage Byron Buxton’s reps in center field.

Farmer, acquired from the Reds last offseason, had a solid year. His .256/.317/.408 batting line over 369 plate appearances was league average. The righty-swinging Farmer produced a .289/.352/.430 showing when holding the platoon advantage, a nice boost for a Minnesota team that was far better against right-handed pitching overall. Farmer started 20+ games at each of second base, third base and shortstop.

Switch-hitting Willi Castro offers similar defensive versatility. He has neutral platoon splits for his career but was quite a bit more productive against right-handers this past season. While Castro could play a utility role, he’s likely an offensive downgrade from Farmer — particularly against southpaws.

That the Twins didn’t non-tender Farmer indicates they’re not going to simply give him away. The front office feels there’s some amount of surplus value. The trade offers for one season of a 33-year-old utilityman projected for a near-$7MM salary aren’t going to be overwhelming. A dreadful free agent middle infield class works in Minnesota’s favor somewhat by limiting the alternatives for teams in need, but it’s not going to result in a dramatically better prospect return. The primary motivation of a trade from the Twins’ perspective would still be about reallocating salary.

Is that worthwhile for Minnesota? Should they deal Farmer to open some spending room while recouping a mid-tier prospect?

(poll link for app users)

Should The Twins Trade Kyle Farmer?
Yes. 63.17% (2,252 votes)
No. 36.83% (1,313 votes)
Total Votes: 3,565

 

Looking For A Match In A Dylan Cease Trade

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After a brutal 2023 season that saw the White Sox lose 101 games and finish fourth in a weak AL Central division, change is in the air on Chicago’s south side. Newly-minted GM Chris Getz made clear earlier this month that the club is operating with no untouchables on the roster. While there’s plenty of players on the White Sox roster who could garner interest in trade, including center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and DH Eloy Jimenez, perhaps the most discussed among those names is right-hander Dylan Cease, who the club reportedly fielded calls on ahead of this year’s trade deadline.

While no deal came together back then, it’s Cease is certainly still an attractive potential trade candidate for clubs in need of a rotation upgrade. While Cease struggled badly over the last two months of the 2023 as his ERA ballooned to 4.58 on the season, the underlying metrics surrounding Cease’s performance provide more reason for optimism. After all, his 27.3% strikeout rate this season left him tied with Mariners ace Luis Castillo for the eighth-highest figure in the majors this year among qualified starters, just ahead of front-of-the-rotation starters like Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler.

While his 10.1% walk rate certainly left something to be desired, Cease’s strand rate of just 69.4% can’t be ignored as a contributing factor to his struggles in 2023. Only four pitchers (Jordan Lyles, Aaron Nola, Lance Lynn, and Miles Mikolas) had a higher percentage of their batters come around to score than Cease this season. If the sequencing of Cease’s baserunners had produced a strand rate more in line with his career mark of 74.6%, it’s reasonable to think Cease would have been far more productive in 2023, and could be in line for better fortunes in 2024.

Even accounting for his difficult 2023 season, Cease has been one of the league’s most impressive starters over the past three seasons. Since the start of the 2021 season, Cease leads all pitchers with 97 games started and clocks in at 15th with 526 2/3 innings of work over that time. Between that volume of work and Cease’s strong production (3.54 ERA, 3.40 FIP), only seven pitchers have produced more fWAR than Cease over the past three seasons: Wheeler, Cole, Nola, Kevin Gausman, Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb, and Sandy Alcantara. In addition to being a part of that elite company, Cease won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign and is projected for a salary of just $8.8MM by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz next season, making him an affordable addition for even small-market clubs looking to add a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Given Cease’s affordability and multiple years of control, he figures to be an attractive alternative to an expensive multi-year deal for a front-end arm like Nola, Blake Snell, or Jordan Montgomery this offseason, particularly for clubs with significant budgetary restrictions. He’s certainly not a fit for every club, however. The A’s, Royals, Angels, Rockies and Nationals are all unlikely to contend during Cease’s remaining window of control, while some up-and-coming clubs like the Marlins, Guardians, Tigers, and Pirates have far more pressing needs on their roster that seem likely to take priority over adding a win-soon, front-end arm like Cease.

The Blue Jays, Mariners, and Brewers, meanwhile, are all teams that contended in 2023 but are much more in need of lineup upgrades than an arm to bolster the rotation, making them likely to pursue upgrades elsewhere. While teams like the Cubs, Twins, and Mets are all decent fits, the unlikelihood of a White Sox blockbuster with a division or crosstown rival (particularly the same one they acquired Cease from in 2017) and the Mets’ uncertain timeline for competitiveness make them less likely to land Cease as well, particularly in what could be such a crowded field of potential suitors. That still leaves 14 clubs that could at least plausibly have considerable interest in Cease’s services this offseason. A look at each of those teams…

Best Fits:

  • Braves: The Braves and White Sox have already gotten together on one fairly significant trade this offseason, and could make plenty of sense to do so again. With Kyle Wright out for the 2024 season and subsequently shipped off to Kansas City, the Braves are looking somewhat thin in the rotation with little certainty behind a front three of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton. An acquisition of Cease could take pressure off Morton as he enters his age-40 campaign as well as youngsters like Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver. Meanwhile, young infielder Vaughn Grissom is blocked by Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia up the middle in Atlanta but could immediately step into an everyday role at second base for the White Sox in 2024.
  • Cardinals: The Cardinals have made it clear they’re on the hunt for starting pitching this offseason, and swinging a deal for Cease could allow them to add a quality arm at a price that wouldn’t take them out of the running for an additional arm in free agency like Nola or Sonny Gray. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a bevy of big-league ready talent blocked at the major league level they could deal from, ranging from catching prospect Ivan Herrera to reclamation outfielder Dylan Carlson.
  • Diamondbacks: The reigning NL champs could certainly do with an upgrade to their rotation in 2024, which features little certainty beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Brandon Pfaadt showed flashes of untapped potential as the club’s third starter throughout the playoffs, but after posting a 5.72 ERA in 19 regular season appearances seems best suited to a back-end role until he can prove himself further. Though the Diamondbacks have shown interest in top-of-the-market NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the club has given out just one nine-figure contract in its history. Cease would offer Arizona a far more affordable option to pair with Gallen at the top of the rotation, and could offer a young bat like outfielder Alek Thomas as a potential centerpiece for the deal.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers are in desperate need of rotation reinforcements with sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler in his first season post-Tommy John surgery as the club’s most reliable arms for Opening Day 2022. Though the Dodgers are among the league’s most free-spending clubs, their rumored pursuit of Shohei Ohtani and need to fill multiple spots in the starting rotation could make a trade for Cease an attractive option to fill out a spot toward the front of the club’s rotation. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have several young arms that could interest the White Sox as part of a return package, including Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan.
  • Orioles: After a 101-win campaign in 2023, the Orioles figure to be more aggressive this offseason than they have in the recent past, when they’ve largely limited their additions to short-term deals for complementary players like Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier. That being said, the trade market could be a better route for Baltimore to seek improvements than free agency; after all, club officials have avoided making commitments to substantial payroll increases and the team has a deep crop of big league ready position players who may be best utilized as trade capital, ranging from arb-eligible role players like Ramon Urias to former top prospects like Jordan Westburg. Meanwhile, the addition of Cease would give the club a quality front-end starter to pencil in alongside Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish for the club’s hypothetical 2024 playoff rotation.
  • Rays: The Rays are facing an all-time high payroll in 2024 and are in desperate need of rotation upgrades following long-term injuries to Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan in 2023. Cease would be an affordable option the club could bolster their rotation with, giving them additional flexibility to explore trades of right-hander Tyler Glasnow while also potentially clearing some of the club’s positional logjam, where the likes of Curtis Mead could find themselves without much playing time in 2024.
  • Reds: The Reds haven’t been shy about their need for starting pitching help this offseason, and Cease makes sense for a club that regularly runs a payroll in the bottom half of the league as a potential impact arm who wouldn’t break the bank. Much like the Orioles, the Reds are deep in young infield options, with second baseman Jonathan India a prime candidate for a trade himself, to say nothing of blocked prospects like Edwin Arroyo.

Next Tier Down:

  • Astros: While the Astros could certainly use pitching help this offseason after being forced to rely on rookies like Hunter Brown and JP France for much of the 2023 season, it’s fair to wonder if the club has the appetite for another pitching blockbuster just a few months after swinging a deal with the Mets to bring Justin Verlander back to Houston at the trade deadline earlier this year. What’s more, the Astros are relatively lacking in the young, big league-ready talent that the Sox might look to acquire in a Cease deal.
  • Giants: The Giants are certainly in need of rotation upgrades after essentially only using Webb and veteran righty Alex Cobb as regular starting pitchers for most of the 2023 campaign. That being said, the Giants certainly have money to spend after last offseason’s failed bids for Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. With plenty of holes to fill on the roster, San Francisco may be better suited for an aggressive pursuit of free agent starters than giving up near-term youngsters in a deal for Cease.
  • Padres: San Diego’s rumored budgetary issues this offseason are well-documented at this point, and it’s possible the club could need to clear more payroll before taking on even Cease’s relatively modest $8.8MM projected salary. That being said, president of baseball operations AJ Preller is well known for his aggressiveness on the trade market, and a deal for Cease would certainly be more cost-effective than, for example, re-signing Snell to a nine-figure contract.
  • Phillies: The Phillies are in need of a top-of-the-rotation arm after the departure of Nola in free agency, but re-signing him appears to be the club’s top priority this offseason. That makes Philadelphia attempting to swing a deal for Cease fairly unlikely, particularly given the club’s relative lack of big-league ready prospect talent with whom they could attempt to make a trade.
  • Rangers: The reigning AL champs could certainly stand to upgrade their rotation after losing Montgomery to free agency, but much like their division rivals in Houston, the Rangers just swung a blockbuster to bring Max Scherzer to Arlington this past summer. What’s more, the club may be expecting Jacob deGrom back from Tommy John surgery sometime next year and already has a plausible five-man rotation of Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning for Opening Day 2024.
  • Red Sox: The Red Sox are clearly looking for a front-end starter to add to their rotation, and the clubs famously got together on a blockbuster deal during the 2016-17 offseason that sent Chris Sale to Boston. Despite that history, however, the Red Sox could be better off adding a long-term contract via free agency than spending prospect capital to acquire just two seasons of Cease, particularly given the club’s last-place finish in the AL East this past season.
  • Yankees: Much like their archrival Red Sox, the Yankees are clearly in the market for pitching upgrades this offseason. The Yankees are also a club that could certainly benefit from a shorter-term arrangement like the one Cease would provide, given the club’s several megadeals for players like Judge, Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Giancarlo Stanton. That being said, the club is seemingly reluctant to deal young, big league ready talent like Oswald Peraza, though it’s at least feasible a deal could come together surrounding prospects further from the majors like Spencer Jones and Chase Hampton.

Looking For A Match In A Manuel Margot Trade

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With the Rays facing a projected payroll that’s nearly 50% higher than their current franchise-record, they’re widely expected to make several deals in order to scale back their spending. That’s not to say Tampa Bay is embarking on any sort of rebuild, as machinations of this nature are the norm for a Rays club that regularly churns the top end of its roster and cashes in veteran players for controllable young talent. Among the early trade candidates on the Rays’ roster this offseason, is outfielder Manuel Margot — as discussed here yesterday. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi adds that Tampa Bay has discussed the 29-year-old with multiple teams within the past two weeks.

Margot isn’t coming off a great year and is slated to earn $10MM in 2024 before he reaches free agency next winter. As such, it’s only natural that he’s among the names the Rays are peddling as they look to retool the roster, scale back payroll and simultaneously remain competitive. The Rays have Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Randy Arozarena and several utility types who can handle both the infield and outfield. The possibility of trading Margot and bringing in a backup outfielder (via trade or free agency) at a lower salary point remains.

Margot’s .264/.310/.376 batting line in 336 plate appearances this past season is right in line with the .264/.317/.375 line he’s posted in four total seasons as a member of the Rays. It checked in a bit below average, albeit not egregiously so.

Had Margot enjoyed a season of his typical defensive excellence in ’23, that offensive output would’ve made him an above-average all-around contributor. But Margot missed the bulk of the 2022 season with a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee, and his usual strong (at times elite) defensive grades slipped closer to average. Statcast noted that Margot’s range and sprint speed both declined in 2023, which perhaps isn’t all that surprising for a player coming off a major knee injury. The question for potential trade partners is whether Margot can be expected to rebound to his previous defensive heights or whether this is the new norm moving forward.

Clubs will likely have varying opinions on that front, though Margot’s overall track record ought to carry some appeal. That’s especially true in a thin free-agent market for outfielders. Not every team will want to pursue a nine-figure deal with Cody Bellinger, and some teams might well be turned off by the possibility of overcommitting to Kevin Kiermaier on the heels of a strong season. Free agent Harrison Bader offers a similar skill set to Margot and had a better year defensively but lesser year at the plate. Michael A. Taylor has an excellent glove and more pop than Margot but much higher strikeout rates and lower on-base marks.

Given the thin market for proven outfield help, Margot ought to command interest on the trade market — even if the return isn’t enormous. Let’s run through a few potential fits, excluding his AL East rivals. These certainly aren’t the only possible destinations, but any of the following teams make sense as a candidate to target a short-term, versatile option in the outfield:

  • Marlins: Newly minted president of baseball operations Peter Bendix was the Rays’ general manager before being hired by Miami. The Marlins have been on the lookout for a center fielder for the past several years but have struggled to fill the void — so much so that the Fish moved shortstop Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field last year. Miami could line up on a trade bringing Margot aboard to handle center field, thus moving Chisholm back to the infield. The Marlins don’t have an obvious everyday shortstop at present, and the market for quality options at that position is even more barren than in the outfield.
  • Giants: President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has spoken openly about his desire to add some more athleticism and range to his outfield. Even with Margot’s step back in 2023, he still had above-average range and sprint speed. He’d be an upgrade, defensively speaking, over much of the San Francisco outfield mix even if he never fully rediscovers his once-elite range. Margot would allow the Giants to give Luis Matos some extra time in Triple-A after rushing to the Majors as a 21-year-old in 2023. And if Matos eventually forces his way onto the scene, Margot could join Austin Slater and Mitch Haniger as right-handed complements to lefty outfielders like Mike Yastrzemski and Michael Conforto.
  • D-backs: Arizona’s excellent young outfield was a major factor in their unexpected run to the 2023 World Series, but with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hitting the market, the Snakes are once again looking at an all-left-handed mix of Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy and Dominic Fletcher. Margot gives them a right-handed option to provide manager Torey Lovullo with some matchup options.
  • Phillies: The Phils currently look as though they’ll give former top prospect Cristian Pache, who’s out of minor league options, another look as a reserve outfielder. Last year’s .238/.319/.417 slash in 95 plate appearances was better than anything Pache has ever done in the big leagues (career .173/.230/.273). Maybe they’ve unlocked something in his offensive profile, but Margot would be more reliable at the plate while still providing a potential righty complement to Brandon Marsh and a late-game defensive upgrade over Nick Castellanos.
  • Mariners: The Mariners and Rays have lined up on approximately six thousand trades since Jerry Dipoto was hired to oversee baseball operations for Seattle, and with a pair of young lefties (Jarred Kelenic, Cade Marlowe) currently slated to patrol the outfield corners in 2024, there’s another potential fit here. Margot would be a younger (and slightly more expensive) veteran to fill the same role the M’s tried for with AJ Pollock in 2023. Perhaps the M’s feel in-house options like Sam Haggerty and/or Dylan Moore can capably handle this role, but Haggerty has never topped 201 plate appearances in a big league seasons, while Moore battled injuries in 2023 and saw an already problematic strikeout rate spike to 34%.
  • Rockies: Brenton Doyle was an elite defender in his debut season but also one of the least-productive hitters in MLB. Nolan Jones, a converted infielder, is the Rockies’ most established outfielder at the moment. Margot could be acquired at a relatively low cost and plugged in as a semi-regular in an outfield that lacks much in the way of certainty. It’s plenty arguable that the Rox shouldn’t be trading anything to acquire short-term pieces like Margot, but they’ve staunchly resisted a rebuild for several years and will probably try to bolster the roster to some extent again this winter.
  • Angels: Mickey Moniak’s breakout season came with massive platoon splits, and Margot would serve as a natural right-handed pairing with the former No. 1 overall pick while providing an alternative in center, should Mike Trout again spend time on the injured list. The Angels have Jo Adell as a potential right-handed complement in the outfield, but Margot is a superior defender who might be better served for such a part-time role.
  • Rangers: Leody Taveras struggled in the second half of the 2023 season, and impressive as Evan Carter was in his late debut and throughout the postseason, he still has all of 147 plate appearances against Major League pitching at just 21 years of age. Margot would give Texas a true fourth outfielder — something they currently lack — in addition to insurance for Carter regression, continued struggles for Taveras or another injury for star right fielder Adolis Garcia.
  • Twins: It might be simpler for the Twins to simply re-sign Taylor, although peak Margot has a better glove and about half the strikeout rate of the Twins’ departing free-agent outfielder. Minnesota is trying to scale back payroll, making this an imperfect fit unless the Rays are interested in taking back some money to fill a need of their own (e.g. Christian Vazquez). Money aside, Margot would offer a natural complement to young lefty outfielders Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach while also giving the Twins a capable reserve in center, should Byron Buxton miss time yet again.

Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates

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While the offseason has gotten rolling, trade season hasn’t quite arrived. The Tigers acquired Mark Canha from Milwaukee in the biggest swap of the first couple weeks. Otherwise, the GM Meetings simply served to set the stage for future transactions.

That’ll surely involve some notable trades. Unlike the summer deadline, projecting which players will change hands is difficult at this stage of the offseason. Aside from the A’s, there aren’t any teams clearly in rebuild mode. Clubs like the Rockies, Royals, White Sox, Nationals and Angels have uphill paths to contention, yet none has indicated they’re prepared to punt on the 2024 season entirely.

The Padres, Twins, Rays, Brewers and Guardians are all aiming to contend but have questions about their payroll. That’s standard operating procedure for Tampa Bay, Milwaukee and Cleveland. San Diego and, to a lesser extent, Minnesota have shown a willingness to spend in recent years but are scaling back — in both cases, likely tied to their uncertain local television rights contracts.

That informs the offseason trade landscape, which is headlined by a few stars deep into their arbitration windows. Without many clear rebuilders, it’s possible we see more swaps of big leaguers at positions of need between teams that expect to compete.

Before we get to the list, a note on methodology. This isn’t a strict ranking of players’ trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved. We’re trying to balance both of those things, an inherently subjective exercise. All projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

1. Juan Soto, LF, Padres

Other than Shohei Ohtani’s free agency, there may be no bigger story of the offseason than Soto’s future in San Diego. He is entering his final year of club control, projected for a $33MM salary that would be the highest ever for an arbitration-eligible player. The Padres are scaling back payroll, perhaps as much as $50MM. They need multiple starting pitchers and could stand to upgrade at first base and/or designated hitter.

Trading Soto would allow the Friars to recoup MLB-ready talent while clearing significant spending room for multiple smaller additions. It would also be a devastating blow to the lineup. Soto overcame a relatively slow start (by his standards) to hit .275/.410/.519 with 35 home runs this year. The Padres are still motivated to win in the short term. Barring what would be a stunning run at Ohtani, they’re not going to acquire anyone better than Soto.

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller continues to maintain they’ll explore a long-term deal. There’s nothing to suggest an extension is particularly likely. Soto rejected a $440MM offer from the Nationals before he was traded at the 2022 deadline. The price would only be higher now that he’s a year and a half closer to free agency. In the absence of an extension or a definitive declaration that Soto is off the trade market, speculation will linger. Alden González of ESPN wrote last week that many throughout the industry believe the three-time All-Star will be available.

2. Corbin Burnes, SP, Brewers

3. Willy Adames, SS, Brewers

Burnes and Adames are tied together with good reason. They’re each one year from the open market and projected for a noteworthy arbitration salary — $15.1MM for Burnes, $12.4MM for Adames. Milwaukee is reportedly open to offers on the majority of the roster.

A former Cy Young winner, Burnes may be the best pitcher available in trade. The right-hander posted a sub-3.00 ERA each season from 2020-22. His 3.39 mark across 193 2/3 innings this past season wasn’t quite so dominant but is still high-end production. Burnes struck out just under 26% of opposing hitters. While his lowest mark since his rookie season, that’s still an above-average figure.

Adames is coming off a less impressive year. The 28-year-old hit .217/.310/.407 through 638 trips to the plate. That’s slightly below-average offense, although he still connected on 24 home runs. Adames is an excellent defensive shortstop with plus power in an offseason where there are essentially no free agent shortstops of note. Even with a mediocre on-base percentage, he’d generate plenty of interest.

4. Shane Bieber, SP, Guardians

Develop high-end starting pitching, trade a top starter as they become more expensive, replace him with talented younger arms. The Guardians have trodden this path with Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco. Bieber, one year from free agency with a projected $12.2MM salary, could be next.

Cleveland has the likes of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill (himself a potential trade candidate) as rotation options. While Bieber is no longer a Cy Young caliber pitcher, he turned in a 3.80 ERA with a below-average but serviceable 20.1% strikeout rate over 21 starts this past season. Bieber lost a good chunk of the second half to elbow inflammation but returned to make two appearances in late September.

5. Tyler Glasnow, SP, Rays

The Rays signed Glasnow to an extension in August 2022 when he was completing his rehab from Tommy John surgery. The big right-hander is set to make $25MM next season, the largest single-year salary in franchise history. That naturally leads to questions about whether the Rays are prepared to meet that figure, particularly in an offseason where they have a loaded arbitration class.

If they made him available — and he’s already surfaced in rumors — Glasnow would be a very appealing target. He was quite good this year, working to a 3.53 ERA while striking out more than a third of opponents over 21 starts. An oblique strain cost him the first two months of the season, but he avoided the injured list thereafter. He’s a year away from free agency, making another extension with Tampa Bay appear unlikely. Yet dealing him would represent a tough blow to the Rays’ chances of competing in 2024. They’re already down Shane McClanahan for the entire season and will be without Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for at least a good portion of the year. While they’d likely bring back some kind of MLB help as part of a Glasnow trade return, the rotation depth could be a problem.

6. Dylan Cease, SP, White Sox

Cease had a disappointing follow-up to his Cy Young runner-up campaign. He allowed a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings this past season. That’s nearly two and a half runs higher than his sparkling 2.20 mark of the prior year. As is often the case, his true talent probably lies somewhere in the middle. Cease still missed plenty of bats — 27.3% strikeout rate, 13.6% swinging strike percentage — while issuing a few more walks than ideal. His fastball averaged 95.6 MPH, down a tick from the preceding season.

The right-hander has shown the ability to pitch at an ace-caliber level. He is two seasons from free agency and projected for an $8.8MM arbitration salary, making him more affordable than the other high-end starting pitchers near the top of this list. The extra year of control probably gives him more trade value than any of Burnes, Bieber or Glasnow. It also makes him less likely to be traded this offseason.

First-year GM Chris Getz has suggested no one on the roster is truly untouchable, an understandable approach for a team that just lost 101 games. Neither owner Jerry Reinsdorf nor Getz has called this a rebuild, though. Any slim hopes the White Sox may have of competing in 2024 would be dashed by trading Cease, the only above-average starting pitcher on the roster.

7. Alex Verdugo, RF, Red Sox

Verdugo’s name has been floated in trade rumors for a few seasons. The Red Sox have held onto him thus far. They have a new baseball operations leader in Craig Breslow, who has acknowledged the team has gotten early calls on the left-handed hitting outfielder. Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida also hit from the left side. Dealing Verdugo could free some at-bats for a right-handed addition while perhaps bringing in immediate help for the pitching staff or at second base.

MLBTR projects Verdugo for a $9.2MM salary in his final season of arbitration. He’s coming off another league-average offensive showing, when he hit .264/.324/.421 with 13 home runs through 602 plate appearances. Verdugo hasn’t become the All-Star player the Sox envisioned when building the Mookie Betts return around him. He’s a solid regular, a high-contact hitter who rates as a decent defender in right field.

8. Trent Grisham, CF, Padres

9. Ha-Seong Kim, 2B, Padres

If the Padres hold Soto, dealing Grisham and/or Kim could be an alternative means of trimming payroll. While neither is going to make anywhere near Soto money in 2024, they’re each on mid-level salaries of note. Grisham is projected for a $4.9MM salary in his second-to-last season of arbitration. Kim is slated for an $8MM salary and will be due a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option at season’s end. He’ll be a free agent next winter.

Grisham has the extra year of control but is the worse player. He draws plenty of walks but has hit below the Mendoza line in two straight seasons. He’s coming off a .198/.315/.352 line over 555 plate appearances. The appeal is on the other side of the ball. Grisham is an above-average defensive center fielder, keeping him as a low-end regular even if he’s best suited for the bottom of a lineup. San Diego could kick Fernando Tatis Jr. over to center field if they dealt Grisham, freeing right field for a bigger offensive threat than Grisham provides.

It’s a similar story with Kim. Dealing him would free Jake Cronenworth to move back to second base, opening first base for a better hitter. It’d be tough to replace Kim’s overall production, though. He’s a plus defender at multiple infield spots. He hit .260/.351/.398 with 17 home runs and stole 38 bases in 152 games. Trading Kim isn’t as damaging to the lineup as a Soto deal would be, but it’d be tougher than parting with Grisham.

10. Gleyber Torres, 2B, Yankees

Another player one year from free agency, Torres is projected for a $15.3MM salary in his last arbitration season. That’s below his market value but a notable figure for a bat-first second baseman — a general profile that the league has devalued in recent years. Torres was New York’s second-best offensive player in 2023, hitting .273/.347/.453 with 25 homers through 672 trips to the plate.

Even if they’re not interested in an extension, New York could hold Torres for his final season of club control. They’re already light on consistent hitting beyond Aaron Judge. On the surface, trading their second-best hitter seems counterintuitive. The big question is whether the front office believes Oswald Peraza is capable of stepping into an everyday second base role in 2024. If they feel the 23-year-old is ready, trading Torres to clear spending room while bringing back outfield or pitching help makes sense.

11. Jonathan India, 2B, Reds

The Reds’ infield surplus has fueled trade speculation on India back to the deadline. Cincinnati didn’t seem inclined to make that move midseason, pointing to India’s role as a clubhouse leader. While that’s certainly still a factor, he didn’t hit well down the stretch and finished the year with a middling .244/.338/.407 batting line. He’s a well below-average keystone defender.

There’s an argument the Reds are better off relying on an up-the-middle tandem of Matt McLain and either Noelvi Marte or Elly De La Cruz. Perhaps the offseason is a better time to consider moving India for a back-end starter. The former Rookie of the Year is projected for a $3.7MM salary and has three seasons of remaining arbitration control.

12. Eloy Jiménez, DH, White Sox

Jiménez no longer looks like a core piece for the White Sox. Various injuries have kept him off the field throughout his big league tenure. He only has two seasons of 100+ games and hasn’t gotten to 500 plate appearances since his 2019 rookie year. Jiménez was still an excellent hitter when healthy as recently as 2022, when he ran a .295/.358/.500 line over 84 games. His production fell this year, as he posted a .272/.317/.441 slash with 18 homers over 489 trips to the dish.

That’s not especially imposing for a player who’s best suited at DH. Yet Jiménez has shown greater offensive upside that isn’t matched by many in this winter’s free agent class. If the Sox are prepared to move on, another team could look to buy low. He’ll make a $13MM salary next year, the final guaranteed season of his contract. He’s guaranteed a $3MM buyout on a $16.5MM club option for 2025 and the deal contains an $18.5MM team option for the ’26 campaign.

13. Max Kepler, RF, Twins

14. Jorge Polanco, 2B, Twins

Minnesota president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has confirmed the team is paring back payroll. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported the organization could end in the $125-140MM range. At the moment, they have around $120MM in projected spending.

The Twins have a few ways to clear room. Trading either Kepler or Polanco would accomplish that. The former is making $10MM, while the latter is playing on a $10.5MM deal. Kepler will be a free agent after next season; Polanco’s contract has a $12.5MM team option for 2025 that comes with a $750K buyout.

They’re each good players. Kepler is a plus defender in right field who hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 homers this year. Polanco was limited to 80 games but ran a .255/.335/.454 showing. He’s one of the sport’s better offensive second basemen and saw some third base action for Minnesota late in the year. The Twins have Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach as left-handed hitting corner outfield options. They’re deeper on the infield, where Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer (another trade candidate) are possibilities at second/third base behind starters Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis. Top prospect Brooks Lee, the No. 8 overall pick in 2022, isn’t far from MLB readiness. The Twins could look to move Kepler or Polanco for rotation depth or to bring in a righty bat to balance the lineup.

15. Randy Arozarena, LF, Rays

Arozarena hasn’t been the subject of the same level of trade speculation as Glasnow has. There’s an argument the Rays should be more willing to move the All-Star outfielder if they’re looking to create payroll room. Tampa Bay has greater depth in the outfield than they do on their injury-riddled pitching staff. Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Harold Ramírez, Luke Raley and Manuel Margot are all on hand. (Margot has come up in trade rumors as well.)

None of those players is as good as Arozarena. Trading star players for younger talent is familiar territory for the Tampa Bay front office though. Arozarena is projected for a $9MM arbitration salary and controllable for three seasons. He’d have significant trade value if the Rays were to consider moving him.

16. Mariners SP

We initially had Bryan Woo in this spot. It could just as easily have been Bryce Miller or Emerson Hancock, so we’ll cheat and just mention the Seattle rotation in general. They’re almost certainly not going to trade George Kirby. It’d take a lot to pry away Logan Gilbert. Moving any of Woo, Miller or Hancock could be more appealing for a front office that is looking for ways to add long-term offensive upside.

None of that trio has even reached one year of major league service. Hancock only has three big league starts under his belt. Miller and Woo spent more time in the rotation this year, starting 25 and 18 games respectively. They both turned in mid-rotation results. Other clubs probably have differing opinions on which right-hander they prefer. (The Mariners likely have their own slight preferences.) They’d all have significant value if president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto decided to move one for a bat.

17. Dylan Carlson, CF, Cardinals

It was a bit of a surprise that Carlson didn’t change hands over the summer. Various reports suggested the Cards were making him available as they looked for ways to add a controllable starter. It didn’t happen, but the same logic applies this winter.

Carlson has been surpassed by Lars Nootbaar as the starting center fielder. St. Louis needs multiple starting pitchers and will likely bring in at least one via trade. Carlson probably has less value than he did before the deadline. Not only did he finish with a mediocre .219/.318/.333 batting line, he underwent season-ending surgery on his left ankle in September. There’d nevertheless be teams willing to take a shot on a former top prospect who looked like an average or better center fielder 12 months ago. Carlson is projected for a modest $1.8MM salary and has three years of arbitration control.

18. Paul Blackburn, SP, A’s

Blackburn is arguably the most desirable realistic trade candidate on the Oakland roster. The A’s have torn things to the studs. They’re unlikely to compete within the two remaining years of Blackburn’s arbitration window. The right-hander (30 next month) worked to a 4.43 ERA with a decent 22.4% strikeout rate over 103 2/3 innings this past season. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary. A Blackburn trade isn’t going to be an offseason defining move, but he has a good chance to be flipped to a contender seeking affordable back-end starting pitching.

19. Alek Manoah, SP, Blue Jays

Perhaps no player had a more disappointing 2023 performance than Manoah. Within one season, he went from Cy Young finalist to essentially unplayable. The right-hander pitched to a 5.87 ERA over 19 big league outings. His walks more than doubled while his strikeouts fell from 22.9% to a modest 19% clip. He lost his spot in the Toronto rotation and was eventually demoted to the minors. Manoah never pitched in Triple-A and received an injection in his throwing shoulder at the end of the season.

How will the Jays proceed after that disastrous year? General manager Ross Atkins said last week the team would give him “a strong leg up” on the #5 spot in the rotation. The Jays aren’t broadcasting a desire to trade him, although they wouldn’t be doing themselves any favors if they declared they were ready to move on. Dealing Manoah to bring in a lower upside but higher floor pitcher wouldn’t be a surprise with the Jays firmly in win-now mode. The former first-round pick is controllable for four more seasons and won’t reach arbitration until next winter.

20. Brandon Drury, 2B, Angels

The Halos signed Drury to a two-year free agent deal last winter. The righty-hitting infielder turned in a nice season, connecting on 26 home runs with a .262/.306/.497 line across 523 plate appearances. Next year’s $8.5MM salary looks like strong value, particularly in an offseason where the supply of up-the-middle players is thin. The Angels probably aren’t kicking off a rebuild. They could do a shorter-term retool if Ohtani walks, or they could simply look to move Drury for pitching while turning second base to Luis Rengifo and/or an external acquisition.

21. Brendan Donovan, 2B, Cardinals

Donovan is a longer shot trade possibility if the Cards move a controllable hitter for starting pitching. He’s more valuable than Carlson and less likely to be on the move. At the same time, he’d net a clearer rotation upgrade if St. Louis were to give him up — likely turning the middle infield over to a combination of Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman and Masyn Winn in that scenario.

The 26-year-old hit .284/.365/.422 with 11 homers through 371 plate appearances this past season. A flexor tendon injury pushed him to designated hitter and eventually required surgery that ended his year a couple months early. He’s expected back for Spring Training. If healthy, Donovan brings excellent contact skills and a solid plate approach. He’s a multi-positional defender who can play any of the corners in addition to second base. Donovan has four years of remaining control and won’t get to arbitration until next offseason.

22. Christopher Morel, DH, Cubs

Morel is likely to be a divisive player around the league. He has huge raw power and connected on 26 home runs while slugging .508 in 107 games for the Cubs. The right-handed hitter owns a .241/.311/.471 line in just over 850 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons. When he’s hot, he can carry a lineup.

He also strikes out more than 30% of the time and doesn’t have a defensive fit. Morel has played all three outfield spots and each of second base, third base and shortstop in the majors. He hasn’t rated well anywhere. The Cubs used him mostly at designated hitter this year and have suggested they’ll get him first base run in 2024. That’s not a great fit for a plus runner with top-of-the-scale arm strength, yet Morel hasn’t shown himself capable of handling more important positions on a regular basis.

How teams project Morel defensively could impact both whether he’s traded and what kind of return the Cubs could receive. As a first baseman or DH, he’s a fringe regular with a statistical profile that’d paint him as a lumbering slugger as opposed to a dynamic athlete. If another team feels he can hold his own at second base or in center field, he becomes far more desirable. The Cubs have no urgency to trade him. Morel is controllable through 2028 and won’t reach arbitration for at least another season. Yet president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has alluded to the possibility of a deal, saying last week that “another team might be able to put him [at second base],” where the Cubs have Nico Hoerner.

23. Christian Vázquez, C, Twins

Trading Vázquez is another route Minnesota could consider to clear money. The Twins signed the veteran catcher to a three-year, $30MM free agent deal last offseason. He had a tough first season in Minneapolis, limping to a .223/.280/.318 line over 355 plate appearances — albeit with his typical brand of excellent defense. Ryan Jeffers easily surpassed him as the #1 option on the depth chart. A $10MM per year backup catcher is a luxury for a team trying to trim salary.

Minnesota likely wouldn’t be able to offload the entire deal, but they could try to shed around half the money or take on a smaller contract in return. Vázquez’s year wasn’t much worse than a season that got Omar Narváez two years and $15MM last winter, while Tucker Barnhart secured a two-year, $6.5MM guarantee despite a much lesser offensive track record.

24. Luis Robert Jr., CF, White Sox

Robert has the most trade value of any player on this list. He may also be the least likely to move. Last week, Getz called him a franchise building block and noted he had no plans to proactively shop Robert even as he left open the possibility of listening to offers on anyone.

It’s not hard to understand why. Robert’s an elite defensive center fielder who connected on 38 home runs while hitting .264/.315/.542. It was the first time he stayed healthy for a 162-game schedule. The result was a season that’ll get him down-ballot MVP support. Robert is a prime-aged superstar and, unlike Soto or Burnes, he’s nowhere near free agency. He’ll make $12.5MM next year, $15MM in 2025 and is controllable via $20MM team options for 2026-27. Trading Robert would signify a complete teardown that the Sox probably don’t want. Yet the haul would be astronomical if they decided to go in that direction.

25. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets

Alonso was the subject of early offseason trade speculation. With the Mets projecting a less active offseason and placing a priority on 2025, it wasn’t out of the question he could be available. Alonso is projected for a $22MM arbitration salary and will be a free agent after next year.

New York has subsequently walked back some of their statements about a possible retool. They’re still aiming to compete in ’24 even if they’re signaling they won’t blow away the top of the free agent market. First-year president of baseball operations David Stearns has twice publicly said he anticipates Alonso being the Opening Day first baseman in Queens. That won’t stop teams from trying, but an offseason deal looks decidedly unlikely.

Others Of Note

A’s: Seth Brown

Braves: Vaughn Grissom

Brewers: Adrian Houser, Devin Williams, Brandon Woodruff

Cardinals: Alec Burleson, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, Tyler O’Neill

Giants: J.D. Davis, Mike Yastrzemski

Guardians: Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill

Mariners: Ty France

Marlins: Josh Bell

Mets: Jeff McNeil

Nationals: Hunter Harvey, Lane Thomas

Orioles: Anthony Santander

Padres: Scott Barlow

Phillies: Nick Castellanos

Rays: Manuel Margot, Harold Ramírez

Red Sox: Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Nick Pivetta

Rockies: Brendan Rodgers

Royals: Salvador Perez

Tigers: Spencer Turnbull

Twins: Kyle Farmer

Big Hype Prospects: Manzardo, Tiedemann, Jobe, Scott, DeLauter

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The Arizona Fall League has concluded, putting a final wrap on the 2023 season. The Surprise Saguaros took home the hardware – not that that means anything to most readers. Jakob Marsee managed to sneak by Offensive Player of the Year James Triantos for the top OPS and MVP honors. Liam Hicks took home the batting title. Twin sluggers Kala’i Rosario and Aaron Sabato shared the home run title. Ricky Tiedemann won the AFL Pitcher of the Year award over Davis Daniel. Additional awards can be viewed here.

Listed stats are from the AFL.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Kyle Manzardo, 23, 1B, CLE
101 PA, 6 HR, .272/.340/.565

Manzardo finished the campaign on a strong note. He reached base three times in the championship game and homered twice in the semi-final while leading a nine-run comeback. The 2023 season represented a small step back in Manzardo’s prospect status. Due to an extreme fly ball approach, he struggled to reach base on balls in play. While no slouch in the power department, his exit velocities hovered around league average. His peripherals show evidence of a post-trade adjustment, although I do not know the specifics of that adjustment. We might be looking at a small sample quirk.

Ricky Tiedemann, 21, SP, TOR
18 IP, 12 H, 8 BB, 23 K, 2.50 ERA

After missing a large chunk of the 2023 season, Tiedemann was on hand in Arizona for just four starts. He made the most of them, showing enough to take home a closely-contested award. Tiedemann spent most of his active time at Double-A where he made 11 starts totaling just 32 innings. He missed bats with ease but struggled at times with command – an issue which followed him to the Fall League. He features a repertoire of three plus offerings including a mid-90s fastball, a sweeper, and a changeup.

Jackson Jobe, 21, P, DET
15.2 IP, 14 H, 5 BB, 19 K, 2.87 ERA

The next-highest profile pitching prospect in fall ball, Jobe nearly matched Tiedemann over his four-start run. Jobe works with a deep repertoire of at least five average or better offerings. He’s credited with a head for pitching including a professional-level feel for incorporating analytic analysis into his development. After tasting one start at Double-A this season, he’s on track for a Major League promotion sometime in 2024.

Victor Scott, 22, OF, STL
96 PA, 3 HR, 18 SB, .286/.388/.417

A speedy left-handed hitter, Scott turned heads in the AFL via an advanced feel for contact. He was one of only a handful of hitters who recorded more walks than strikeouts. Thought he has posted above average batting lines throughout his brief minor league tenure, scouts complain of a low-impact swing that might prove exploitable against upper-level pitching. Scott’s path to the Majors likely looks something like Johan Rojas – a defense-first profile with the speed and contact chops necessary to post an empty batting average.

Chase DeLauter, 22, OF, CLE
101 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .299/.385/.529

DeLauter is my pick for most intriguing player to participate in the AFL. His swing is an acquired taste – at first visually disturbing, but then it grows on you. Like Scott, DeLauter recorded more walks than strikeouts, a feat that fits right in with the Guardians hitting ethos. He also led the league in RBI. He will have an opportunity to approach the Majors next season, but he needs to prove he can get to power outcomes more consistently in order to get the call.

Three More

Oliver Dunn, PHI (26): A non-prospect coming off a strong Double-A campaign, Dunn likely played his way onto a 40-man roster this fall. He’s Rule 5 eligible so the Phillies will have to roster him or prepare to watch him be drafted. Dunn posted a 1.071 OPS – fourth-best in the league to go with 12 extra-base hits and 12 steals in 88 plate appearances.

Caleb Durbin, NYY (23): An Altuve-scale second baseman, Durbin led the AFL with 21 steals in 23 attempts. He also posted a 1.044 OPS, good for sixth-best in the league. He even delivered a trio of home runs to go with nine doubles and a triple in 99 plate appearances. He recorded twice as many walks as strikeouts. Durbin was arguably the most dynamic offensive performer in the AFL.

Damiano Palmegiani, TOR (23): Palmegiani was already ticketed for a role with the 2024 Blue Jays. With six home runs and 21 RBI in 92 plate appearances, he was one of the top-performing power hitters in the league. Pending offseason activity, he’s primed to compete for an Opening Day assignment.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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