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MLBTR Poll: Are The Rangers Done Spending This Winter?

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After winning the 2023 World Series, the first in franchise history, the Rangers have a big decision to make. They can either rest on their laurels, having accomplished their ultimate goal well ahead of schedule, or they can double down, reconfirming their commitment to winning. There is no denying their aggressive approach over the last two years paid dividends, but will they take that as motivation to remain aggressive or as impetus to let their foot off the gas?

The Rangers have been relatively quiet this offseason, having made just two notable acquisitions: starting pitcher Tyler Mahle and reliever Kirby Yates. Mahle, 29, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and won’t return to the mound until midsummer at the earliest. Yates, 37 in March, overcame elbow problems of his own to pitch a full season in 2023, but at this point in his career, he looks more like a middle reliever than the All-Star he once was.

Meanwhile, several key contributors and high-paid veterans came off the books at the end of the 2023 season, including Jordan Montgomery, Mitch Garver, Martín Pérez, Jake Odorizzi, Aroldis Chapman, and Will Smith. In other words, this team has holes to fill and, at least in theory, should have money to spend.

However, after allocating significant resources to sign players like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi over the past two years, not to mention adding Max Scherzer at last year’s trade deadline, the Rangers’ estimated 2024 payroll already sits dangerously close to the first luxury tax threshold. According to Roster Resource, the team has just over $4MM left to spend before they’d have to pay the tax.

The Rangers paid the competitive balance tax for the first time this past season. The total bill came in around $1.8MM, a drop in the bucket compared to their payroll and a small price to pay for a World Series title. Nonetheless, managing partner Ray C. Davis “isn’t keen to start the season above the tax threshold” in 2024, according to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. Grant has suggested as much at multiple points throughout the offseason, but he reemphasized the idea earlier this week. Specifically, he notes the higher surcharge for clubs that pay the tax multiple years in a row; teams pay a 20% tax on all overages their first year above the threshold, 30% in their second straight season, and 50% in subsequent seasons after that.

Grant also acknowledges that the Rangers, like several other teams, are dealing with uncertainty surrounding local TV revenue after Diamond Sports Group filed for bankruptcy earlier this year. That said, he stops short of presuming the team will start spending again if DSG and the Rangers reach a new deal for broadcast rights in 2024.

Despite all these budgetary questions, general manager Chris Young went on the record in late November to say Texas would be “active in free agency,” even if he wasn’t going to spend to the same degree as he had the previous two winters (per Grant). However, it’s unclear if signing Mahle and Yates and calling it a day would count as an active offseason in Young’s book. For what it’s worth, the Rangers have been linked to several top free agents over the past two months. Before signing Mahle and Yates, the team was connected with pitchers like Montgomery, Yariel Rodriguez, and Jordan Hicks. More recently, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested the Rangers were still in on Clayton Kershaw, despite his recent shoulder surgery – even though Texas already has three starters (deGrom, Scherzer, and Mahle) who are recovering from surgeries of their own.

Without shedding some financial commitments elsewhere on the roster, any new signing the Rangers make could push their luxury tax payroll over the first threshold for penalties. Thus, if Davis is serious about avoiding the tax in 2024, Texas could already be finished spending this offseason; needless to say, that would be an anticlimactic way to follow up a World Series-winning campaign. Then again, if Rosenthal is correct to think the Rangers are pursuing Kershaw, perhaps they aren’t ready to curb their aggression after all. In addition to a starting pitcher, this team could use another proven bullpen arm and a full-time designated hitter. Plenty of talented players are still available if Texas is willing to pay their price.

As things currently stand, the Rangers have a good chance to return to the playoffs and contend for the AL West crown in 2024. However, being the defending World Series champions doesn’t make them the division favorites, nor does it mean they can expect to walk back into the postseason next fall. If ownership wants to topple the Astros dynasty, they’d be wise to keep investing in their roster.

So, what do MLBTR readers have to say? Will the Rangers continue looking for upgrades, even if it means paying the luxury tax again next season? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

Are The Rangers Done Spending This Winter?
No, they will spend past the first luxury tax threshold 41.26% (1,989 votes)
Yes, the Rangers are done making major signings this winter 34.37% (1,657 votes)
No, but they will also shed payroll to avoid paying the luxury tax 24.37% (1,175 votes)
Total Votes: 4,821

Free Agent Profile: Joc Pederson

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Thus far in the offseason, the free agent market has moved significantly faster for pitchers than for hitters. Twenty-two of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed this winter, and 16 of those (including Shohei Ohtani) have been pitchers. Even beyond the top 50, pitchers have made up the majority of notable MLB signings. However, with Ohtani and Jung Hoo Lee off the board, perhaps the market for position players will begin to heat up in the new year.

One particular bat to keep an eye on is Joc Pederson, a two-time All-Star with an .800 OPS across ten big league seasons and 1,140 career games. While he missed the cut-off for MLBTR’s Top 50 list, he is arguably the best hitter remaining among the honorable mentions, and if he rediscovers the success he had in 2022, he could prove to be a bargain for his new club.

Over the first five years of his career, Pederson was a consistent power threat and a walk machine, crushing 123 home runs to go along with a 12.1% walk rate and a .245 isolated power. After a couple of down years in 2020 and ’21, the lefty slugger bounced all the way back in ’22, putting up the best offensive numbers of his career. His .874 OPS ranked seventh in the National League (min. 400 PA), while his 146 wRC+ ranked fifth. He was named to his first All-Star team since his rookie season and was a Silver Slugger finalist in the outfield.

Following his eye-catching 2022 campaign, Pederson accepted a $19.7MM qualifying offer from the Giants, more than tripling his $6MM salary from the previous season. Unfortunately, he was not able to live up to the high expectations he set for himself. His numbers dropped in all three triple-slash categories, and while his .764 OPS was still well above average, it was hardly elite.

Be that as it may, there is plenty of reason for optimism as Pederson enters his age-32 campaign. For one thing, he recorded his highest walk rate since 2015 and the best walk-to-strikeout ratio of his career in 2023. His batting average and on-base percentage still declined, but that could merely be the result of bad luck on balls in play. While his .235 BA was below league average, his .264 xBA (per Baseball Savant) was significantly above average. Moreover, the -0.029 difference between his BA and xBA was the second largest gap among NL hitters (min. 200 balls in play).

In the same vein, the lefty’s .366 xwOBA was right in line with his .367 xwOBA from the previous season. Indeed, Pederson’s Baseball Savant page paints a pretty promising picture overall. His xwOBA ranked in the 90th percentile in MLB, while his 52.2% hard-hit rate ranked in the 96th. On top of that, he set a new career high in maximum exit velocity, crushing one particular pitch at 116.6 mph. Only 13 hitters topped that number in 2023, a list of batters littered with MVP candidates and All-Stars. Needless to say, we’re talking about a hitter who can still demolish the baseball.

With all that in mind, it’s reasonable to presume Pederson will improve upon his .764 OPS and 111 wRC+ in 2024. According to the Steamer projection system at FanGraphs, he has the second-highest projected OPS (.809) among all unsigned free agents. Only Jorge Soler (.813) is ahead of him by a narrow margin, while Michael Brantley has the next highest projection at .799. To be fair, Pederson is unlikely to be an everyday player, and his projections presume a limited amount of exposure to same-handed pitching. Still, any hitter who can produce an .800 OPS on the heavy side of a platoon is a valuable player to have around.

Yet, unlike fellow outfield/DH bats Teoscar Hernández and Soler, Pederson hasn’t been connected with many teams so far this winter. Given the shallow market for impact bats, especially left-handed hitters, it’s somewhat strange he hasn’t generated more interest.

Around the end of the regular season, Pederson linked himself to his then-team, the Giants, telling Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he would love to return to San Francisco in 2024. “I really like it here,” he explained. “It’s a great group of guys. I love the way they run the organization.” While such comments aren’t always particularly revelatory, especially when they concern a player’s current team, it’s worth noting that Pederson chose to return to the Giants in 2023 instead of testing the open market after his All-Star season. In addition, he grew up rooting for the Giants, and he has spent all but one year of his professional career playing in his home state of California.

However, the Giants are almost certainly out of room for Pederson after signing KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year, $113MM deal earlier this month. In addition to Lee, the Giants have four veteran outfielders on the roster, two of whom, Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski, are left-handed hitters with mediocre career platoon splits against same-handed pitching – much like Pederson himself.

Pederson also spurred brief speculation he was signing with the Phillies this winter after posting a picture of himself posing at Citizens Bank Park to his personal Instagram account. The rumors were shortlived, however, as Todd Zolecki of MLB.com quickly set the record straight: “It doesn’t mean he’s signing with the Phillies. They haven’t even talked this offseason.”

To that end, Pederson never made much sense for the Phillies. Philadelphia already has a left-handed full-time DH (Kyle Schwarber) and a left-handed outfielder with sizeable platoon splits (Brandon Marsh). If president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is going to sign another bat, he will presumably target a right-handed hitter with a bit more defensive versatility.

The only team Pederson has been connected with by any source other than himself is the Blue Jays, who expressed interest in the outfielder earlier this month, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Davidi’s report came before Toronto signed Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, but that doesn’t mean the club couldn’t add Pederson, too. General manager Ross Atkins mentioned early in the offseason that he would consider adding a primary DH, and the Jays should also have playing time available in both outfield corners when the injury-prone Kiermaier and George Springer need some time off their feet. That said, the Blue Jays have also been heavily linked to Cody Bellinger this winter, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today calling them the favorites a couple of weeks back. Signing Bellinger, another left-handed outfielder, would likely take Toronto out of the running for Pederson.

So, beyond those three clubs, where could Pederson wind up? One possible landing spot is the Angels, who have room in the outfield and could certainly use a left-handed power bat. By all accounts, GM Perry Minasian isn’t planning to start a rebuild, and after missing out on Ohtani, he should have plenty of cash to spend. According to the estimates provided by Roster Resource, the Angels’ payroll currently sits about $60MM below the final tally from last season.

Another possibility is the Nationals, who are reportedly seeking a left-handed power bat this winter. If that is indeed the case, there might be no better option than Pederson. It’s hard to imagine the Nationals are in on Bellinger, or that Bellinger would choose to sign with a rebuilding club. Meanwhile, Brantley is an excellent left-handed hitter, but power hasn’t been a part of his offensive toolkit in several years. Brandon Belt is the only other free agent who looks to be an impactful left-handed hitter, but it’s anyone’s guess if he can keep mashing in his age-36 season.

Finally, the Mariners are one more suitor worth keeping in mind. After trading Jarred Kelenic and non-tendering Mike Ford, Seattle could use another lefty hitter. Mitch Garver figures to get most of the playing time at DH, but the Mariners have room for an upgrade in either one of the outfield corners. Considering president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto’s long-standing aversion to signing free agent position players to longer-term contracts, Pederson seems like a good fit; he might be the best free agent outfielder who would be open to signing a one-year deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Marcus Stroman

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The free agent market has been slower than usual this winter, but one area of the market that has stayed fairly consistently active throughout the offseason has been the starting pitching market. More than half of the league entered the offseason in hopes of acquiring a starter or two this winter, and deals have come together for many of them. While the Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes have held things up for many top-of-the-market options, potential mid-rotation arms have seen no such delay in free agency as players like Kenta Maeda, Lucas Giolito, Seth Lugo, Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez have all been among the players to come off the board since free agency officially opened in early November.

That flurry of activity has left the pickings fairly slim in this area of the market, even as the top of the market still features the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery and plenty of lower-level options like James Paxton and Sean Manaea remain available. One mid-rotation piece who has yet to be taken off the market is right-hander Marcus Stroman, who opted out of the final year and $21MM on his contract with the Cubs to test free agency last month. Since Stroman’s decision, there has been little public interest in the right-handers services. The Royals reportedly engaged with the righty earlier this offseason, though the club added both Lugo and Wacha to their rotation since then and appear to be done making significant additions to the roster.

It’s somewhat understandable that Stroman hasn’t generated major interest so far this offseason. The right-hander is entering his age-33 season, meaning he’s older than the likes of Rodriguez, Wacha, and Giolito. What’s more, the righty is coming off a injury-marred campaign in Chicago where he missed six weeks due to a rib cartilage fracture and posted a brutal 8.29 ERA across his final 11 appearances with the Cubs. That clubs may be hesitant about a pitcher entering his mid-thirties who struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness in the second half last year is hardly surprising, but that lack of interest could make Stroman one of the more undervalued assets available in free agency this offseason.

After all, Stroman was among the most dominant pitchers in baseball in the first half, with a sterling 2.28 ERA in 98 2/3 innings of work across his first sixteen starts of the season. That dominant performance earned Stroman the second All Star nod of his career, and while the righty’s 3.33 FIP and .235 BABIP indicate some of that exceptional run prevention may have been due to good fortune, that FIP was still considerably better than league average and his incredible 59.9% groundball rate surely helped to explain his unusually low home run rate. Meanwhile, Stroman’s atrocious results in the second half were generally not backed up by underlying metrics; his aforementioned 8.29 ERA in the second half was more than four runs higher than his far more palatable 4.23 FIP, and his strikeout and walk rates only worsened slightly as he punched out 19.3% of batters faced while walking 9.6%.

Taken together, Stroman’s 2023 season paints a picture of a playoff-caliber, mid-rotation arm: the right-hander posted a 3.95 ERA (113 ERA+) with a 3.58 FIP in 136 2/3 innings of work while striking out 20.7% of batters, walking 9%, and generating grounders at a 57.7% clip across 27 appearances (25 starts). That was good for the 18th-best FIP in baseball last year among pitchers who made at least 25 starts, sandwiched between Montgomery and Mets right-hander Kodai Senga. If Stroman can as much as match his peripheral numbers from 2023 with improved health and batted ball luck, he figures to be a quality piece who could improve the majority of rotations around the league. And while both of his seasons in Chicago saw the right-hander miss time due to injury, Stroman has made 32+ starts four times in his career, most recently in 2021 as a member of the Mets.

The Cubs have been connected to pitchers such as Shota Imanaga in free agency and Shane Bieber via trade this offseason, and Stroman previously publicly expressed his desire to remain in Chicago long-term over the summer, ahead of the trade deadline. While a reunion between the sides has not been rumored to this point in the offseason, the Cubs certainly remain a fit for the righty’s services as they look for an additional arm to pair with Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, and Jameson Taillon in the rotation. Looking beyond Chicago, the Red Sox are in the hunt for pitching and could benefit from pairing Stroman’s stable, mid-rotation production with higher variance pitchers like Giolito and Brayan Bello, while the Giants, Padres, Yankees, and Rangers are among the many teams who could look for rotation upgrades going forward this offseason.

Though many of those clubs would surely prefer to add a player such as Snell, Montgomery, or even Imanaga to their rotation mix, each of those southpaws is expected to garner $100MM or more on the open market. At this point in the offseason, teams hoping to add a playoff-caliber starter without breaking the bank will be hard-pressed to find a better option than Stroman, who was projected by MLBTR for just two years and $44MM in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list. That appears to be more or less par for the course in the mid-rotation market, as Giolito landed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox while Lugo received a three-year, $45MM guarantee from the Royals. If Stroman does garner a similar contract to the other mid-rotation arms available this winter, it’s easy to imagine the deal proving to be among the more cost-effective pitching signings of the offseason should he manage a full, healthy season in 2024.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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On paper, a longer contract equals a larger amount of job security.  And yet every year, we seem to be adding a longer list of caveats to this annual post detailing which managers and front office bosses (a GM, president of baseball operations, chief baseball officer, or whatever the title may be) are entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts.

First off, this list is somewhat speculative — some teams don’t publicly announce the terms of employee contracts, nor are details always leaked to reporters.  It is entirely possible some of the names listed have already quietly agreed to new deals, or were already contracted beyond 2024.  Secondly, obviously a contract only carries so much weight if a team drastically underperforms, and if ownership feels a change is needed in the dugout or in the front office.  Or, ownership might still desire a change even if the team is doing well on the field, i.e. the Marlins parting ways with Kim Ng after a wild card berth last season.

Craig Counsell’s five-year, $40MM deal to become the Cubs’ new manager also provides an interesting wrinkle to the managerial market.  With Counsell’s contract setting a new modern benchmark for managerial salaries, some of the more established skippers on this list will surely be looking to match or top Counsell’s deal.  These managers might choose (as Counsell did) to finish the year without signing a new contract and then test the open market, since you never know when a mystery team like the Cubs might swoop in to top the field.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: The Halos have had eight consecutive losing seasons, including the first three years of Perry Minasian’s stint as general manager.  Minasian now faces the challenge of trying to break this losing streak without Shohei Ohtani on the roster, and even before Ohtani joined the Dodgers, Minasian was clear that the Angels weren’t going to be rebuilding.  This tracks with the overall aggressive nature of owner Arte Moreno, yet this approach has also manifested itself in five non-interim GMs running the Angels since Moreno bought the team in 2003.  As Minasian enters the last year of his contract, it will take at least a winning season to keep Moreno from making yet another front office change.

Athletics: There hasn’t been any word about an extension for general manger David Forst, even though Forst’s last deal purportedly expired after the 2023 season.  It can therefore probably be assumed that Forst inked a new deal at some point, as it has appeared to be business as usual for the longtime Oakland executive this winter (or as “usual” as business can be given the Athletics’ bare-bones rebuild and the unusual nature of the team’s impending move to Las Vegas).  Manager Mark Kotsay would’ve been entering the final guaranteed year of his original deal with the A’s, except the team exercised their club option on Kotsay through the 2025 season.

Braves: Alex Anthopoulos is entering the last season of his three-year extension as Atlanta’s president of baseball operations, and one would imagine that ownership will aim to lock Anthopoulos up to another deal as soon as possible.  The Braves have won six straight NL East titles and the 2021 World Series championship during Anthopoulos’ six seasons with the organization, and look to be contenders for years to come thanks to the core of star players under long-term deals.  Anthopoulos would seemingly be eager to stay in Atlanta for this same reason, though if he did choose to play out the year and test the market, he would undoubtedly command a lot of interest from teams looking for a new chief executive.

Cardinals: For just the third time in the last century, a Cardinals team lost 91 or more games.  This unexpected interruption in the Cards’ run of success has naturally put a lot of heat on Oliver Marmol, who is entering the final season of his three-year contract.  Unsurprisingly, the team had yet to have any extension talks with Marmol as of early December, and it remains to be seen if Marmol will get even one extra year of security.  With such franchise stalwarts as Yadier Molina or Joe McEwing perhaps waiting in the wings as managers of the future, Marmol will surely need a quick start and at least a winning record in 2024 to retain his job.

Guardians: Chris Antonetti’s contract details haven’t been publicly known for more than a decade, yet there isn’t any sense that the longtime executive will be leaving Ohio any time soon.  Antonetti has been part of Cleveland’s front office since 1999, and he has been running the baseball ops department (first as GM and then as president of baseball operations) since 2010.  While the Guardians stumbled to a 76-86 record last year, Antonetti has a long track record of building contending teams on low payrolls, and he’ll now embark on a new era with Stephen Vogt replacing Terry Francona as the Guards’ manager.

Mariners: Another somewhat speculative situation, as while president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais signed extensions in September 2021, the exact length of those extensions wasn’t reported.  It is probably fair to assume both men are signed beyond 2024, though Servais’ previous two deals were three-year contracts, and 2024 would be his final guaranteed year if the skipper’s latest contract was also a three-year pact.

Orioles: Baltimore is particularly mum about the details of any employee contracts, as GM Mike Elias’ contract terms have never been publicized since he took over the club in November 2018.  Manager Brandon Hyde has already signed one extension that flew under the radar, and that deal has apparently stretched beyond the 2023 season, as there hasn’t been any suggestion that Hyde won’t return to the AL East champions.  In either case, Elias and Hyde won’t seem to have any worries about job security given how the Orioles won 101 games last year, and might be budding powerhouses for the next decade given the amount of young talent on the roster and in the minor league pipeline.

Pirates: Ben Cherington is entering his fifth season as Pittsburgh’s general manager, and terms of his original deal weren’t reported.  With the Bucs perhaps starting to turn the corner after their long rebuild, there wouldn’t appear to be any reason for ownership to move on from Cherington, if he hasn’t already been quietly signed to a new deal.  The Pirates already extended manager Derek Shelton back in April, in another hint that ownership is satisfied with the team’s direction.

Rays: Kevin Cash’s last extension was a lengthy six-year deal covering the 2019-24 seasons, with a club option for 2025.  It seems like a lock that the Rays will at least exercise that club option and seek out another multi-year deal, and Cash has a good case to argue for a Counsell-esque contract.  Widely considered one of baseball’s best managers, Cash is 739-617 over his nine seasons in Tampa Bay and has led the team to five consecutive postseason berths.

Red Sox: Alex Cora is entering the final year of his contract, and the Red Sox are coming off a pair of last-place finishes in the AL East.  Despite these results, the blame seems to have been placed on now-fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, as there hasn’t been much indication that ownership is dissatisfied with Cora’s performance as manager.  Since Cora has hinted that he might like to run a front office himself in the future, it will be interesting to monitor if he might pursue those ambitions as soon as next offseason, or if he might sign a new extension with the Red Sox as manager, or if Cora could perhaps let the season play out and then accept bids from several suitors outside of Boston.

Rockies: In each of the last two Februarys, Bud Black has signed a one-year extension to tack an extra year onto his run as Colorado’s manager.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Black do the same this spring, as past reports have indicated that Black and the Rockies are working on an unofficial roll-over arrangement with the manager’s contract status.  As loyal as owner Dick Monfort is known to be with his employees, however, one wonders if the Rockies’ 103-loss season in 2023 (or their five straight losing seasons) might lead to questions about Black’s future, even if the team’s roster construction or their boatload of pitching injuries last year can’t be blamed on Black.  For what it’s worth, the terms of GM Bill Schmidt’s deal weren’t publicized when Schmidt was promoted to the full-time position after the 2021 season, though Schmidt isn’t thought to be in any danger of being replaced.

Twins: Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine are both apparently entering the final year of their contracts, though Minnesota has been known to be somewhat quiet about employee contracts (such as manager Rocco Baldelli’s last extension).  The duo known as “Falvine” have been on the job for seven seasons, with something of an all-or-nothing track record of either losing seasons or playoff berths, and the Twins were on the upswing again with an AL Central title in 2023.  Assuming either exec hasn’t already signed an under-the-radar extension, the Twins would seemingly be eager to retain both Falvey and Levine, though either could explore options elsewhere for at least leverage purposes.  For Levine in particular, he could be looking to lead his own front office, after being a finalist for Boston’s CBO job this fall and previously getting some consideration for front office vacancies with the Rockies and Phillies in recent years.

Yankees: Perhaps no skipper in baseball faces more public pressure than Aaron Boone, given how a lot of Bronx fans were calling for his ouster even before the Yankees missed the playoffs and won only 82 games in 2023.  Boone is entering the last guaranteed year of his contract, and the Yankees have a club option on his services for 2025.  For as much loyalty as owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman have shown to Boone, it is hard to imagine the manager would be retained if New York doesn’t at least make the postseason again, and another miss could also raise some new questions about Cashman’s status (though his deal runs through the 2026 season).

Free Agent Profile: Gary Sánchez

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Disappointment occurs when reality doesn’t meet expectations. That can result from reality not being very good but it’s also possible for expectations to be too high. If there’s an upcoming movie or album that you build up in your head as the greatest of all time and it turns out to be only pretty good, that will probably register as a disappointment to you. All of this is a tee-up for this question: What if Gary Sánchez is actually pretty good?

Once upon a time, the expectations for Sánchez were so incredibly high. A top 100 prospect on his way up the minor league ladder with the Yankees, he burst onto the scene in 2016, hitting 20 home runs in just 53 games. He followed that up with 33 homers in his first full campaign in 2017, hitting .278/.345/.531 for a wRC+ of 131. He still hadn’t qualified for arbitration at that time, giving the Yanks years of cheap club control and leading many to give the nickname “The Sanchize” to the young catcher.

But he hasn’t been at that level since, which is why many now view him as a disappointment or a bust. In 2018, he hit below the Mendoza line while battling injuries and only getting into 89 games. He bounced back with a 34-homer campaign in 2019, but that was the “juiced ball” season and his batting average, on-base percentage and defense were all worse than in 2017. His 2.4 wins above replacement from FanGraphs were barely half of the 4.3 fWAR he had in 2017.

In 2020, Sánchez hit another 10 home runs in the shortened season but his .147 BA and .253 OBP were obviously rough. He struck out in 36% of his plate appearances. There were rumors that the Yankees were considering a non-tender, rather than giving him a raise on his $5MM salary. A poll of MLBTR readers from that offseason saw just 36.42% of voters suggest the club should run him back out as the starter again in 2021, with 41.04% suggesting a trade or non-tender and another 22.53% suggesting Sánchez be moved into a backup role.

The club did eventually tender him a contract, with the two sides settling on a $6.35MM salary for 2021. He went on to have a decent year, hitting 23 home runs and reducing his strikeout rate to 27.5%. His .204/.307/.423 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 101. That was enough to get him tendered a contract for 2022, though he was flipped to the Twins as part of the Josh Donaldson deal.

His one year in Minnesota yielded mixed results. His 16 home runs in 128 games were well shy of his previous power production, leading to a .205/.282/.377 batting line and 89 wRC+. But he showed some positive developments on defense. Defensive Runs Saved had him at -10 in 2021 but he jumped to +1 with the Twins. Framing metrics from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus gave him a positive mark after being in negative territory the previous three years. Statcast gave him a league average zero for his blocking, an improvement from the negative numbers in the previous four campaigns. Despite the subpar offense, he still tallied 1.3 fWAR.

A free agent for the first time going into 2023, Sánchez found a fairly tepid market. He lingered on the open market until the end of March, when he signed a minor league deal with the Giants. He opted out of that deal in early May and secured another minor league pact, this time with the Mets. His contract was selected by that club but he was designated for assignment after just three games.

The Padres claimed him off waivers in late May and he went on a heater from there. He hit 19 home runs in just 75 games, striking out in just 25.1% of his plate appearances. His .217/.288/.492 batting line led to a wRC+ of 111. His defense was also strong, with a +7 DRS and positive framing grades from Statcast and Baseball Prospectus. He tallied 1.7 fWAR in less than half a season, getting shut down in early September due to a wrist fracture.

There’s also the game-calling to consider, which is hard to measure but definitely has value. Martín Maldonado has continued to get work despite being one of the worst hitters in baseball in his career, largely on the strength of his defense and work with a pitching staff. His defensive numbers were poor in 2023 but he was still able to get $4MM from the White Sox for 2024, with the Sox presumably willing to give out that kind of cash for some intangible benefit from Maldonado’s ability to tease more value of their pitchers.

Sánchez joining the Padres coincided with Blake Snell turning around his season. Through 10 starts this year, Snell had an earned run average of 5.04. But he posted a miniscule 1.18 ERA over his final 22 outings, lowering his season ERA to 2.25 and earning himself a second Cy Young Award. Sánchez caught the first 18 of those 22 games, missing the last four due to his wrist injury.

That may be a coincidence but Snell himself spoke positively of the pairing to Dennis Lin of The Athletic during the season. “I’ve always heard about him offensively, but I love him,” Snell said at that time. “He blocked, like, a 97-mile-an-hour fastball in the dirt. I threw a curveball and it hit the grass and he blocked it. I mean, I don’t see the problem. Even calling the game, we had a game plan; we executed. I even put a lot of trust in him, like, what do you want? Like, you tell me. … I trust him on that. He’s smart.” The praise didn’t end there. “Framing’s good. Framing, blocking, he’s got a hose,” said Snell. “No one’s even trying to run on me. And I’ve been, like, 1.5, 1.6 (seconds to home). I really trust him because of how good he is back there. It brings a lot of comfort. So I’ve been really happy about it.”

Now Sánchez is on the open market again, with very little smoke around his free agency. The Padres reportedly had interest in a reunion, though that was before they acquired Kyle Higashioka in the Juan Soto deal. No other club has been connected to Sánchez in rumors. That’s despite the fact that there are clubs with obvious needs behind the plate, including the Marlins, Rockies, Red Sox, Cubs, Angels, Rays and Pirates.

For some people, Sánchez will always be a bust, with his incredible early-career work having set the hopes so high. While the recent work is obviously not the same as in 2016-2017, the result is still a solid everyday player. His 8.6 fWAR dating back to 2018 his 11th in baseball among primary catchers. One of those ahead of him is Buster Posey, so he’s actually 10th among those that are still active. He’s never produced less than 1.3 fWAR in a full season. His batting average seems destined to remain low, but his power has been present in every season apart from his 2022 stint with the Twins. On defense, his blocking and framing have improved in recent years, while his arm has always been strong. The game-calling is tough to quantify but Snell’s results and high praise are positive omens.

The total package paints Sánchez as a decent everyday catcher, which could lead to pretty good money in free agency. In recent winters, Christian Vázquez got $30MM over three years, Omar Narváez got two years and $15MM, while Yan Gomes got $13MM over two. This winter, Mitch Garver got $24MM, Victor Caratini $12MM and Tom Murphy $8.3MM, all on two-year deals. Garver and Murphy have checkered injury histories while Caratini has never been a potent offensive threat. Sánchez could perhaps be in line for a much better trip to free agency than a year ago, so long as the expectations are set appropriately.

Free Agent Faceoff: Jordan Hicks/Robert Stephenson

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Aside from an early flurry by the Braves, there hasn’t been much movement on the relief market. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, seven relievers have signed a deal that guarantees more than $10MM since the end of the regular season. Atlanta inked three of those contracts, two of which (for Pierce Johnson and Joe Jiménez) came just before the opening of free agency.

There’s no question who tops the class; that’s Josh Hader. The #2 reliever is a matter of debate. One could’ve made arguments for Jiménez, Reynaldo López or even NPB closer Yuki Matsui (who signed a five-year, $28MM pact with San Diego). On our Top 50 free agents, we slotted Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson as the top bullpen arms behind Hader. We predicted four-year pacts for both players, pegging Hicks for a $40MM deal and Stephenson at $36MM.

Neither pitcher has a multi-year track record of consistency. Yet they’re each hitting the market at an opportune time, coming off strong platform showings that demonstrate significant upside.

Hicks throws as hard as anyone in the game. His sinker averaged a little above 100 MPH, reaching 103-104. The velocity hasn’t translated into quite as many whiffs as it might seem, as the downhill action on the pitch works better as a ground-ball offering.

The righty has kept the ball on the ground on three-fifths of batted balls over the course of his career. His 24.5% career strikeout rate is more solid than exceptional, although he fanned a personal-high 28.4% of opponents last season. In addition to his eye-popping velocity and huge ground-ball numbers, Hicks has age on his side. He turned 27 in September, making him the youngest free agent reliever of note.

The primary concerns with Hicks are his control and injury history. He has never thrown strikes at a league average rate, walking over 10% of opponents in every season (including an 11.2% clip last year). While Hicks turned in a fully healthy platform year with the Cardinals and Blue Jays in 2023, he missed significant time between 2019-22. Much of that was a result of Tommy John surgery in June 2019. He lost a good portion of the ’21 campaign to continued elbow inflammation, while a flexor strain in his forearm cost him a chunk of the ’22 season.

Stephenson, who turns 31 in February, hasn’t had the same level of alarming arm issues. His career performance track record is spottier, though, as he has allowed 4.64 earned runs per nine over 364 1/3 frames. Some of that is a reflection of pitching in hitter-friendly parks in Cincinnati and Colorado, but Stephenson also posted unspectacular results in 28 1/3 innings with the Pirates.

As recently as last summer, he seemed a fairly nondescript pitcher. He’d been a highly-regarded prospect and showed intriguing stuff without much success at the MLB level. Things turned following an early June trade to the Rays.

In 38 1/3 frames with Tampa Bay, Stephenson posted a 2.35 ERA while striking out 42.9% of opponents. He missed bats on an astounding 28.7% of his offerings. That was not only the highest rate in MLB over that stretch, it was nearly eight percentage points above second-place Félix Bautista. Over the season’s final four months, he was handily the most dominant reliever in the majors on a pitch-for-pitch basis.

Stephenson doesn’t have the triple-digit velocity of Hicks. Averaging 97 MPH on the heater is more than sufficient, though. He introduced an upper-80s cutter in Tampa Bay, against which hitters made contact on only 40% of their swings. Stephenson has the decided edge in swing-and-miss potential. The question is how much of his dominant four months in Tampa Bay is replicable. He’s unlikely to continue missing bats at that exceptional clip — no pitcher should be expected to maintain that kind of pace — but he’s markedly better than the hurler who owned a career 4.91 ERA and 24.3% strikeout rate before the trade.

There has been some overlap in the Hicks and Stephenson markets. That’s sensible considering they’re probably the top remaining options for teams that don’t want to meet Hader’s asking price. The Rangers, Yankees, Astros, Angels and Orioles are among the clubs linked to both pitchers this winter (although Baltimore subsequently signed Craig Kimbrel). The Red Sox and Cardinals have been tied to Hicks, while the Cubs and Dodgers were linked to Stephenson early in the offseason.

Which one should teams prioritize? Lean in favor of Hicks’ youth and velocity or Stephenson’s bat-missing potential?

Who Should Land The Bigger Contract?
Jordan Hicks 73.52% (2,743 votes)
Robert Stephenson 26.48% (988 votes)
Total Votes: 3,731

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

This Date In Transaction History: Blake Snell Trade

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Today marks three years since the blockbuster that sent a former (and future) Cy Young winner across leagues. The Rays dealt Blake Snell to the Padres in the late evening of December 27, 2020, bringing back a four-player prospect package. Luis Patiño headlined the return, which also included Blake Hunt, former top prospect Francisco Mejía and 2020 third-round draftee Cole Wilcox.

The deal came as something of a surprise, as the Rays weren’t under huge financial pressure to move Snell. Despite the controversy surrounding Kevin Cash’s decision to lift Snell in Game 6 of that year’s Fall Classic, Tampa Bay could’ve held the southpaw into the following season. Snell was under contract for respective salaries of $10.5MM, $12.5MM and $16MM covering the 2021-23 campaigns.

Nevertheless, the Tampa Bay front office felt the prospect return was too strong to pass up. Patiño was viewed as one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects despite struggling in a brief MLB debut that season. Hunt was a borderline Top 100 minor leaguer at the time. Mejía’s stock had fallen from its peak as he struggled against big league pitching, but he was only entering his age-25 season and had less than three years of MLB service. Wilcox was viewed by many evaluators as a first-round talent that year, only dropping to the third because of a lofty bonus demand.

The deal didn’t pan out at all as the Rays had envisioned. While Snell has had a volatile career, he recaptured the ace-caliber upside he’d shown in Tampa Bay. After turning in a 4.20 ERA over 27 starts during his first year with the Friars, he rebounded to post a 3.38 mark in 2022. The cumulative 3.79 ERA he managed across 256 2/3 innings was solid, although it didn’t hint at the Cy Young level he’d reach in 2023.

Snell didn’t start the ’23 campaign well. He owned a 5.48 ERA with a strikeout rate just under 24% through the first month. After a slight uptick in strikeouts and a 3.82 mark in May, Snell kicked off a four-month stretch as the most dominant pitcher on the planet. From June 1 on, he struck out 35% of batters faced and allowed 1.23 earned runs per nine. His 1.54 ERA after the All-Star Break is the 12th-lowest second half rate since 2000 (minimum 75 innings).

The dominating finish led Snell to cruise to a second career Cy Young. He was a near-unanimous choice as the NL’s top pitcher after posting an MLB-best 2.25 ERA through 180 innings. Snell hit free agency and seems unlikely to return to a San Diego organization that has cut spending. Assuming he signs elsewhere in the coming weeks, he concludes his time as a Padre with a 3.15 ERA while striking out 31.5% of opponents in 436 2/3 frames.

As a team, San Diego didn’t have the kind of success they envisioned. They reached the postseason just once in the last three years. A second-half collapse cost them a playoff berth in 2021. They rebounded with a trip to the NLCS in ’22 but finished 82-80 last season. A strong final couple weeks ostensibly brought them within a couple games of a playoff spot, but the 2023 club was more or less finished by the end of August.

One can debate whether the Friars should’ve more aggressively marketed Snell, Juan Soto and Josh Hader at the deadline. A fringe contender at the time, they elected to add around the margins rather than move their top impending free agents or Soto (whose arbitration price tag they knew was rising). As a team that exceeded the luxury tax threshold, they’ll only receive picks after the fourth round as compensation for losing Snell and Hader, each of whom rejected a qualifying offer.

San Diego’s subsequent decisions don’t negate how well they fared in the Snell trade, however. That turned out to be one of the more lopsided deals of the past few seasons. No one in the return found much success in Tampa Bay. Three of the four are out of the organization entirely.

Patiño saw MLB action in each season from 2021-23. He logged 101 1/3 innings as a Ray, turning in a 5.24 ERA. Patiño’s control hasn’t developed as expected and he has struggled with home runs throughout his MLB tenure. The Rays moved on at the deadline, sending him to the White Sox for cash. He ended up back in San Diego last week; the Friars claimed him when Chicago put him on waivers. He’s out of options, so he’ll either need to open the season on the MLB roster or be made available to other teams yet again.

Neither of the other prospects involved have reached the majors. Hunt has slowly climbed the minor league ladder, hitting at a roughly league average level at each stop. The Rays didn’t want to carry him on the 40-man roster, yet Hunt was eligible for minor league free agency after this season. Tampa Bay dealt him to the Mariners (who did add him to the 40-man) for 2022 eighth-round pick Tatem Levins last month. Wilcox remains in the organization but underwent Tommy John surgery late in the ’21 season. He returned to post a 5.23 ERA in 25 starts at Double-A this year. He went unselected in the Rule 5 draft a few weeks ago.

Mejía, arguably the fourth piece of the return at the time, had the most success for Tampa Bay. The switch-hitting catcher had a .260/.322/.414 batting line in 84 games in 2021. His offense cratered over the last two years, though, as he hit .237/.262/.387 in 459 plate appearances over that stretch. The Rays designated him for assignment in August. He reached free agency at year’s end and signed a minor league deal with the Angels last week.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

How AL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2023

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We covered the National League’s 15 teams earlier today, so now let’s check in on how the American League’s 15 clubs have done (to date) in fixing their biggest problem positions from the 2023 season.  Baseball Reference’s position-by-position bWAR breakdown is our guide through last year’s numbers….

Angels (First base, -0.7 bWAR): No team received less from its first basemen than the Angels, even with Brandon Drury hitting well in part-time duty and rookie Nolan Schanuel emerging late in the season.  Schanuel and Drury working in a platoon could improve things, yet the Halos are in something of a state of flux in general, as the team is weighing a lot of internal trade possibilities and other free agent signings in the wake of Shohei Ohtani’s departure.  Not that there’s a silver lining to Ohtani leaving, but the Angels do now have the DH spot open to potentially add a slugging first base/DH type to pair with Schanuel and perhaps keep Drury at second base.

Astros (First base, 0.0 bWAR): Jose Abreu struggled badly for most of 2023 before finally heating up in the final six weeks of the regular season and throughout Houston’s playoff run.  Since the former AL MVP is owed $39MM over the next two years, the Astros can only hope that Abreu has shaken off any new-team jitters and will be back to his old form for the rest of his tenure in Houston.

Athletics (Relief pitching, -0.9 bWAR): Whew, where to begin.  Oakland had the second-lowest relief bWAR and rotation bWAR, and thus their 0.0 total pitching bWAR was the lowest in baseball.  The A’s also received sub-replacement-level production at third base (-0.8), center field (-0.5), shortstop (-0.3), and an even 0.0 bWAR from their pinch-hitters.  Trevor Gott, Osvaldo Bido, and Gerardo Reyes have at least been signed to try and beef up the pitching, yet with the A’s rebuilding and focused more on figuring out where they’ll be playing between the end of their lease at the Coliseum and the opening of their new ballpark in Las Vegas, expect only low-cost additions between now and Opening Day.

Blue Jays (Pinch-hitting, 1.7 bWAR): Toronto’s lack of position-player depth was exposed basically every time the Jays had even one regular out with an injury.  The lack of bench help contributed to the Blue Jays’ overall offensive struggles, and this problem won’t be any clearer until the team addresses its big holes at second base and third base.  If at least one starting infielder was obtained, the in-house infield options (i.e. Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, Spencer Horwitz, Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, Leo Jimenez) could then make for a relatively deep, if unproven, bench.

Guardians (Shortstop, -0.3 bWAR): Cleveland dealt the underperforming Amed Rosario to the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline, opening the door for Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio to get most of the playing time at shortstop.  Neither has hit much at the Major League level, but the Guardians will continue to give the duo (as well as Tyler Freeman, Jose Tena, and perhaps Juan Brito) more opportunities in 2024.  It isn’t an entirely ideal situation for a team in sore need of hitting help, yet since spending is again limited, the Guards will stick to their normal plan of relying on their minor league pipeline.

Mariners (First base, 0.7 bWAR): Ty France hit .250/.337/.366 with 12 home runs over 665 plate appearances last season, translating to about a league-average offensive performance.  With Mitch Garver now signed as the primary DH, Seattle might stick with France at first base, or the team could continue to explore other first base targets and perhaps look to trade France elsewhere.  Isaac Paredes, Josh Naylor and Rhys Hoskins are some of the names linked to the Mariners for a potential trade or signing.

Orioles (Pinch-hitting, 1.5 bWAR): This is a relatively minor weak link as far as “weakest positions” go, as Baltimore still ranked fourth in baseball in pinch-hitting bWAR.  The talent floor should only continue to rise as the Orioles introduce even more top prospects to regular Major League action, so there isn’t much to worry about on the position-player side.  As for pitching, the O’s still might considering moving a bat for an arm, either for the rotation or for a bullpen that has been somewhat fortified by the signing of Craig Kimbrel.

Rangers (Relief pitching, 0.0 bWAR): The shaky Texas bullpen almost cost the Rangers a postseason berth altogether, yet the relievers stabilized enough in the playoffs to help deliver the team’s first World Series championship.  The Rangers signed Kirby Yates to help make up for the departures of Will Smith and Chris Stratton, and the team has also reportedly shown interest in such high-leverage relievers as Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.  Though Texas isn’t going to be continuing their spending sprees from the last two offseasons, they should still have enough payroll room to bolster the pen, even if signing Josh Hader might be a reach.

Rays (Catcher, 1.2 bWAR): Tampa Bay has been trying to stabilize the catching position for years, and the quest will continue this winter.  Christian Bethancourt was non-tendered, leaving Rene Pinto and Alex Jackson lined up as the current tandem behind the plate.  The Rays already moved their biggest trade chip (Tyler Glasnow) without getting a catcher as part of the return from the Dodgers, yet since Tampa’s front office is always actively seeking out deals, the Rays could pick up a backstop in a deal.  Some kind of signing seems inevitable, whether it’s adding someone for a more regular role, or simply signing a couple of veterans to minors contracts to provide Spring Training competition.

Red Sox (Second base, 0.0 bWAR): Ten different players lined up at second base for the BoSox last season, with little success to be had.  Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has highlighted the keystone as a natural target area, ideally for a right-handed hitter with a good glove.  Free agent Whit Merrifield is one name known to be on Boston’s radar, and Merrifield’s ability to play the outfield also adds more flexibility to the roster, particularly should the Red Sox have interest in giving Ceddanne Rafaela a look at second base.  Breslow’s first couple of months on the job have been mostly focused on remaking the Sox outfield, and pitching remains a larger overarching need of the Red Sox offseason.

Royals (Relief pitching, -1.4 bWAR): Few expected the Royals to be one of the offseason’s more aggressive spenders as we hit Christmas, yet Kansas City has splurged (by their standards) to upgrade its dismal pitching situation.  Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha were signed to bolster the rotation, and the bullpen has also been a focus with the additions of Will Smith, Nick Anderson, and Chris Stratton.  The work done to the rotation could filter down to the relief corps, as such names as Daniel Lynch, Angel Zerpa, or Alec Marsh could be used in the bullpen if they’re not being used as starting depth.

Tigers (Third base, -0.3 bWAR): Zach McKinstry, Nick Maton, and Matt Vierling are still around to man the second and third base positions, and act as utility depth in general.  However, the Tigers aren’t likely to seek out a big upgrade since they hope some help is coming on the farm.  It isn’t clear where any of Colt Keith, Jace Jung, or Justyn-Henry Malloy might eventually end up around the diamond, yet all of this trio is expected to make their MLB debuts in 2024 and could help immediately at the keystone or at the hot corner.

Twins (First base, 1.4 bWAR): Alex Kirilloff’s young career has been plagued by injuries, so just getting a healthy year from Kirilloff would automatically help the Twins get more from the first base position.  Edouard Julien could also play first if Jorge Polanco remains at second base and isn’t traded, though there is an expectation that at least one of Polanco or Max Kepler won’t be in Minnesota by Opening Day.  President of baseball operations Derek Falvey identified first base as a likely target area in some fashion back in November, though it’s been a pretty quiet offseason thus far for the Twins, with most of the talk centered around payroll cuts and uncertainty over the club’s TV deal.

White Sox (Right field, -2.4 bWAR): There weren’t many positives in Chicago’s miserable 101-loss season, and that can be taken literally given all of the negative bWAR numbers around the diamond.  The White Sox had a league-worst collective 0.4 bWAR for all non-pitchers, and were also below replacement level at shortstop (-1.7), catcher (-1.5), pinch-hitting (-0.6), second base (-0.4), and left field (-0.1).  New GM Chris Getz has added talent at some of these positions already, but with so many holes to be plugged, Getz has yet to turn his attention to improving on the right field combination of Oscar Colas and Gavin Sheets.  Some outfield additions seem inevitable, and Chicago’s roster might end up looking quite different in 2024 considering that Getz has been open to trade offers for just about any White Sox player.

Yankees (Left field, -1.6 bWAR): This was also the lowest left field bWAR total for any team in baseball in 2023, as New York’s revolving door of outfield options didn’t result in any consistent production.  However, the Yankees have already upgraded their outfield in eye-opening fashion, acquiring both Juan Soto as the new right fielder and Alex Verdugo from the Red Sox to handle left field.  Though Verdugo had some clashes with Sox manager Alex Cora and Verdugo has been only slightly above average over the last couple of years, that still represents a solid improvement over the mess that was the Yankees’ left field situation.  Verdugo and Soto are also both left-handed hitters, so the Yankees have balanced out their heavily righty-swinging lineup.

How NL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2023

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There’s still plenty of time left in the offseason for teams to check items off their winter to-do lists, but with the spirit of holiday shopping in the air, let’s take a look at what baseball’s teams have already done to fix their roster’s weakest links from last season.  Using Baseball Reference’s list of how each team performed (as per bWAR) by position in 2023, let’s start with the 15 National League clubs….

Braves (Pinch-hitting, 0.3 bWAR): We’ll start with a team without many weak points, as the Braves amassed 104 wins thanks mostly to one of the best offensive lineups in baseball history.  Atlanta’s everyday players were so good and so durable that the bench didn’t get much of a chance to even hit the field, even as late-game subs.  As to how the bench depth might improve, Vaughn Grissom is expected to take on a larger role, and David Fletcher was acquired from the Angels as a backup infield upgrade over Nicky Lopez.

Brewers (First base, 0.4 bWAR): Carlos Santana is a free agent, Rowdy Tellez was non-tendered, and Mark Canha was traded to the Tigers as the Brew Crew might more or less completely reshuffle their first base mix.  GM Matt Arnold did hint that Santana could return and highly-touted prospect Tyler Black could factor at either corner infield position, but for now, first base remains somewhat in flux.  Jake Bauers was acquired from the Yankees and currently projects to work with Owen Miller in a platoon at the cold corner.

Cardinals (Pinch-hitting, 0.2 bWAR): St. Louis’ rotation problems have been well-documented, and their 4.1 rotation bWAR ranked 28th of 30 teams.  However, pinch-hitting was technically the Cardinals’ weakest point by pure bWAR metrics, and this area might just improve with better results from the team’s in-house options.  On paper, the Cards have plenty of versatile position-player depth, though they need to figure out which members of this group will be lineup regulars or perhaps off the team altogether.

Cubs (First base, 0.4 bWAR): Even with Cody Bellinger getting a big chunk of the playing time at first base, he hit only .267/.310/.467 over 200 plate appearances as a first baseman, in contrast to his red-hot .323/.381/.548 slash line in 339 PA as a center fielder.  A Matt Mervis/Patrick Wisdom/Christopher Morel combination is currently in place at the cold corner, yet it doesn’t feel like the Cubs are going to just stand pat the position.  Wrigleyville has been linked to such trade and free agent targets as Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor, and Rhys Hoskins, plus a reunion with Bellinger can’t yet be ruled out.

Diamondbacks (Third base, 0.0 bWAR): The NL champions only got replacement-level production at the hot corner last year, but Arizona has already made a big move by adding Eugenio Suarez in a trade with the Mariners.  It’s a possible short-term fix since 2024 is the last guaranteed year of Suarez’s contract, though he should provide the D’Backs with some extra power while the team gets some more time to evaluate Jordan Lawlar’s readiness at shortstop (which could shift Gerardo Perdomo to third base in the future).

Dodgers (Pinch-hitting, 1.3 bWAR): Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers’ “weakest position” is still pretty respectable.  The return of Gavin Lux and the acquisition of Manuel Margot should raise the talent floor on the roster in terms of bench depth, as younger players like Miguel Vargas or Michael Busch could contribute in backup or part-time roles, rather than being relied on (as Vargas was last season) for a high-pressure starting role.  The left field position also generated 1.4 bWAR in 2023, and Los Angeles hopes that the addition of Margot can help on that front, plus a return to form for Chris Taylor would help a ton.

Giants (Shortstop, -1.3 bWAR): Longtime shortstop Brendan Crawford battled injuries all season long and wasn’t very productive when he was on the field, leaving the Giants short-handed at one of the most important positions on the diamond.  Top prospect Marco Luciano made his MLB debut last season and will get a longer look in 2024, but San Francisco is also looking around for shortstop help, perhaps just as a one-year stopgap to help Luciano ease into the big leagues.

Marlins (Catcher, -0.6 bWAR): Jacob Stallings wasn’t tendered a contract, and Christian Bethancourt was acquired from the Guardians as president of baseball operations Peter Bendix picked up another of his former players from the Rays.  The Bethancourt/Nick Fortes tandem is at least a defensively-stout pairing behind the plate, though Miami isn’t done in exploring the market for more catching help, and former Cardinal Andrew Knizner is reportedly of interest.

Mets (Third base, -1.2 bWAR): No team got less from the hot corner than the Amazins, but New York’s initial plan for the offseason was to keep rolling with younger players like Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, or Mark Vientos.  However, Mauricio will now miss most or all of the season due to a torn ACL, reducing the options to Baty, Vientos, or utilityman Joey Wendle.  Justin Turner is reportedly a player of interest for the Mets, which could fit since Turner would also get a lot of time as a DH, allowing for the youngsters to get action at the third base spot.  If not Turner, some other veteran infield depth option could be obtained, yet the Mets want to give their top prospects some time since 2024 is looking like something of an evaluation year for the team.

Nationals (Designated hitter, 0.7 bWAR): Joey Meneses got the bulk of DH at-bats in 2023, and he couldn’t keep up the magic of his surprising 2022 breakout, hitting only .275/.321/.401 in his second year in the majors.  Meneses could get more time at first base now that Dominic Smith has been non-tendered, and Washington also brought in Juan Yepez and Lewin Diaz on minor league deals.  In short, both the DH and first base spots are basically open-call auditions at this point, as the Nationals probably aren’t likely to acquire a longer-term answer for either position while the team is still rebuilding.  The designated hitter role might not be addressed directly, as the Nats might end up cycling several players through the position.

Padres (First base/pinch-hitting, 0.5 bWAR): San Diego’s crowded infield picture resulted in Jake Cronenworth getting most of the first base opportunity, and he struggled after posting some very solid numbers from 2020-22.  Cronenworth is still the favorite for the position at this point, and his big contract makes it likely that he’ll still be on the roster next year even though Cronenworth’s name has surfaced in some trade talks.  Manny Machado will be used as a DH early in the season until he fully recovers from his elbow surgery, which somewhat complicates any plans San Diego might have in obtaining a slugging first base/DH type, yet such a player might still be a wise addition if the Padres feel confident Machado won’t need too much time to get fully healthy.  As much as the Padres’ offseason has been defined to date by payroll cuts, their recent signing of reliever Yuki Matsui indicates that the team is still planning to contend, and getting another big bat in the lineup seems like a must.

Phillies (Third base, 0.4 bWAR): Alec Bohm and Edmundo Sosa mostly split the third base duties in 2023, as Bohm saw a lot of time at first base with Rhys Hoskins out and until Bryce Harper was ready to take over as the regular first baseman.  Harper will be sticking at first base in 2024, so Bohm will be back as the full-time third baseman.  The former top prospect has been roughly a league-average hitter in his four MLB seasons and his glovework at third base still garners mixed reviews, so if the Phillies did want to make a bigger move to their everyday core, Bohm might be a candidate to be the odd man out.  That said, president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski has indicated that the Phils are more or less done with their top-tier winter shopping.

Pirates (Catcher/shortstop, -0.9 bWAR): The answer is the same at both positions for the Bucs — get full and healthy seasons from two of their best young players.  Oneil Cruz missed almost the entire season due to ankle surgery, while Henry Davis made his MLB debut but barely played any catcher, mostly seeing time as a right fielder instead.  Unfortunately, another top catching prospect in Endy Rodriguez will miss the entire season due to UCL surgery, so Davis now looks to be the top choice behind the plate unless the Pirates prefer to use Jason Delay and Ali Sanchez while Davis gets more acclimated to the position.

Reds (Right field/DH/Pinch-hitting, 0.7 bWAR): Cincinnati had a three-way tie in the “weakest position” race, and the answer to all three positions might be internal improvements.  Or, at least a shuffle caused by the signing of Jeimer Candelario, which will further crowd the infield and push Spencer Steer into a clear left field role.  This will in turn make Will Benson and Jake Fraley into the right field platoon, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand or Jonathan India might now be in line for DH duty now that the Reds have parted ways with Joey Votto.  There are plenty of moving parts here for the Reds, not to mention the fact that Cincinnati might still move one of their infielders in a trade for pitching.

Rockies (First base/second base, -0.6 bWAR): Colorado hopes to have Kris Bryant and Brendan Rodgers healthy, which would automatically make things better at the two lackluster infield positions.  It’s been a pretty quiet winter to date for the Rockies, as their limited transactions to date have understandably been focused on addding pitching.  Colorado only received 0.6 bWAR from its starting pitchers in 2023, the lowest mark in baseball.

2023-24 MLB Free Agents

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The following players are currently free agents.  Each player’s 2024 age is in parentheses.  The cutoff for this list is typically 50 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in the Majors in 2023.

For a free agent list that can be filtered to signed or unsigned players, position, age, handedness, and much more, check out our MLB Contract Tracker.  The Contract Tracker is only available to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

Updated 3-27-24

Catchers

Manny Piña (37)

First Basemen

Brandon Belt (36)
Wil Myers (33)
Darin Ruf (37)
Donovan Solano (36)

Second Basemen

Hanser Alberto (31)
Jonathan Schoop (32)
Jean Segura (34)
Donovan Solano (36)

Shortstops

Adalberto Mondesi (28)

Third Basemen

Evan Longoria (38)
Jean Segura (34)

Left Fielders

Corey Dickerson (35)
Austin Meadows (29)
Tommy Pham (36)
AJ Pollock (36)
Raimel Tapia (30)

Center Fielders

None

Right Fielders

Wil Myers (33)

Designated Hitters

Kyle Lewis (28)
Austin Meadows (29)

Starting Pitchers

Matthew Boyd (33)
Mike Clevinger (33)
Johnny Cueto (38)
Zack Greinke (40)
Rich Hill (44)
Noah Syndergaard (31)
Julio Urias (27)
Vince Velasquez (32)

Right-Handed Relievers

Anthony Bass (36)
Brad Boxberger (36)
Codi Heuer (27)
Mark Melancon (39)
Zach Neal (35)
Alex Reyes (29)
Nick Wittgren (33)

Left-Handed Relievers

Jarlin Garcia (31)
Brad Hand (34)
Aaron Loup (36)

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