MLBTR Originals

We’ve been covering the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR, going through each of the non-pitching positions. But now it’s time to take the mound, beginning with the starters. Though it can be debated whether there’s a true ace in the mix, there’s plenty of arms here that would upgrade the rotation of any team.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

The Unicorn

• Shohei Ohtani (29)

As recently as a few months ago, Ohtani was gliding on a path towards the greatest free agent platform in history. He was in the midst of his third straight season of double duty, providing the Angels with an elite bat and simultaneously serving as their staff ace. Over the 2021 to 2023 periods, he hit 124 home runs and stole 57 bases. His .277/.379/.585 batting line translates to a wRC+ of 156, indicating he’s been 56% better than league average. He also threw 428 1/3 innings with a 2.84 earned run average. He earned MVP honors in 2021, finished second in the voting for that award last year and seems likely to win it again this year.

He was guaranteed to set a record-setting contract of some sort, the only question was the degree to which he would surpass previous benchmarks. The $365MM guarantee of Mookie Betts and the $43.33MM average annual value of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander both seemed to be in jeopardy.

But the picture has changed in the last few months. Ohtani was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in August and was shut down from pitching. He continued serving as the club’s designated hitter but was eventually shut down due to an oblique injury. That oblique issue isn’t a long-term concern, but since it stopped Ohtani from hitting, it allowed him to go undergo surgery a few weeks earlier than he might have otherwise.

He went under the knife this week and it’s unclear if it was a full Tommy John procedure or a lesser internal brace option. Either way, his surgeon released a statement saying that he expects Ohtani to be able to hit by Opening Day of 2024 and pitch by 2025.

Ohtani is still likely to get a record-setting contract based on his bat alone, but the questions surrounding his future pitching abilities will likely tamp it down somewhat. He already underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 and now has another significant elbow surgery to work through. Ohtani is already in uncharted waters in terms of his double workload with the surgery now another factor. The clubs around the league will likely have differing opinions on what kind of performance they think he can maintain from this point forward.

Though he seemingly won’t pitch at all in 2024, it seems fair to expect that the club with the most faith in Ohtani’s return to the mound would be the most willing to put a financial bet on him. Similarly, Ohtani would likely be drawn to whichever club will give him the most runway to keep pitching in the future. Even if he has to leave the mound down the line, he has strong speed and outfield experience, giving him a path forward even in the scenario where his arm doesn’t come back to previous levels. He will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Angels.

Front-Of-The-Rotation Options

• Lucas Giolito (29)

Who is the real Giolito? Over 2019 and 2020, he made 41 starts for the White Sox with a 3.43 ERA and 32.7% strikeout rate. In 2021, his strikeouts dipped to a 27.9% rate, though he was able to keep his ERA at a respectable 3.53. His punchouts dipped again last year, slipping to 25.4%, as his ERA jumped to 4.90.

Here in 2023, he seemed to get back on track somewhat. Through 21 starts with the Sox, he had an ERA of 3.79, though his strikeout rate ticked up only gradually to 25.8%. He was traded to the Angels at the deadline and things went off the rails again. He had an ERA of 6.89 in his six starts for the Halos and wound up on waivers, landing with the Guardians. His first start for the Guards was a disastrous outing, as he allowed nine earned runs in three innings against the Twins. But two starts later, he tossed seven shutout innings against the Rangers with 12 punchouts.

All that makes him one of the most difficult pitchers to peg. Is he the borderline ace that we saw a few years ago? Or the inconsistent back-end guy we’ve seen more recently? Perhaps some club is willing to dismiss his most recent results as a small sample size that was caused by strange circumstances as he bounced around the league. But his combined ERA for the season is now up to 4.60, not too far from last year’s mark. He is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to changing teams midseason.

• Sonny Gray (34)

Gray is the oldest of this group but is having arguably the best platform season. He’s tossed 174 innings over his 30 starts for the Twins with a 2.84 ERA in that time. He has struck out 23.9% of opponents, walked just 7.6% and kept batted balls on the ground at a 47.4% rate. Snell’s ERA of 2.33 is half a run better than Gray’s, but the former has benefitted from a .255 batting average on balls in play and 86.2% strand rate, leading to a 3.48 FIP that is significantly higher than Gray’s 2.85.

After a rough 2018 season in which he had an ERA of 4.90 with the Yankees, Gray was traded to the Reds and signed a contract extension that ran through 2022 and had a club option for 2023. By signing that deal, he locked in some significant earnings but also pushed off his free agency until now. He will still get paid on the heels of his excellent season but he will be limited in terms of length. Last winter, Chris Bassitt got three years and $63MM from the Jays going into his age-34 campaign, with his track record and platform year both less impressive than Gray’s. Gray could look for four or five years as a result. He will receive and reject a qualifying offer.

• Jordan Montgomery (31)

Unlike some of the mercurial options in this bucket, Montgomery brings consistency and reliability to the table. He debuted with the Yankees in 2017, posting an ERA of 3.88 over 29 starts. Six more starts the following year produced an ERA of 3.62 before he required Tommy John surgery. He wobbled a bit in 2020 but has been incredibly steady over the past three years, producing ERAs of 3.83, 3.48 and 3.38. His FIPs are even tidier, going from 3.69 to 3.61 and 3.57 in the past three campaigns.

Overall, he has tossed 742 innings with an ERA of 3.74. His 22.5% strikeout rate isn’t especially eye-popping but he’s limited walks to a 6.6% rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 43.7% clip. He may not have flashy ace upside but is a solid #2 and perfectly acceptable playoff starter. He’ll top the four-year deals of Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker, the former of whom got $68MM and the latter $72MM, and has a strong case for a nine figure deal. Montgomery is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to being traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers midseason.

• Aaron Nola (31)

Nola’s track record isn’t as inconsistent as Giolito’s, but he is also experiencing an ill-timed down year. From 2015 to 2022, he made 203 starts with an ERA of 3.60 along with a 27.5% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 47.9% ground ball rate. He produced 30 wins above replacement in that time, according to FanGraphs, a mark topped only by Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander.

Though he was one of the game’s best pitchers for years, that hasn’t been the case in 2023. His 31 starts have produced 187 innings of 4.57 ERA ball. His 25.2% strikeout rate is a four-point drop from last year and his worst mark since 2016. He is being victimized somewhat by a 65.7% strand rate that’s a bit unlucky, but his 4.08 FIP is still the worst of his career, as is the 31 home runs he’s allowed this season. If any club is willing to look past this year as a blip, Nola could be in line for a nine-figure deal, but time will tell if that’s in the cards. He will receive and reject a qualifying offer.

• Blake Snell (31)

Like many of the pitchers in this category, Snell has huge upside but hasn’t been able to produce it consistently. He produced a 1.89 ERA over 31 starts for the Rays in 2018, winning the American League Cy Young award in the process. But the next four years were a bit more middling, as he put up an ERA of 3.85 in 85 starts, never reaching 130 innings in any of those season. One of them was the shortened 2020 campaign, but he struggled to stay healthy in the others.

He got out to a terrible start this year with a 5.40 ERA through his first nine outings. But he’s been the best pitcher in the league since then, posting a minuscule 1.26 ERA over his past 22 outings. Overall, he has logged 174 innings over 31 starts with a 2.33 ERA, 31.7% strikeout rate and 43.8% ground ball rate. The 13.5% walk rate is a concern and Snell can’t keep stranding 86.2% of baserunners, but he could hardly have asked for a better platform year and could even nab a second Cy Young. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer en route to a contract that could exceed $150MM.

Question Mark

• Julio Urias (27)

Urias would have been in the previous group based on his career ERA of 3.11 and hitting free agency just after his 27th birthday. But he’s currently on administrative leave as he’s being investigated for a violation of the league’s domestic violence policy. He already received a DV suspension back in 2019 and could potentially be the first player get a second. It’s unclear what kind of punishment he’s facing or if he will pitch in the majors again.

NPB Stars

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto (25)

Yamamoto is putting the finishing touches on his seventh season for the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and it may be his best yet. Over 170 games dating back to 2017, he has an ERA of 1.84 in 883 innings. Here in 2023, he’s got that ERA all the way down to 1.32 over his 21 appearances, striking out 25.2% of batters while walking just 4.4%. Yamamoto will need to be posted by his current club, but it is widely expected that they will do so.

The transition from Japan to North American doesn’t always go perfectly, but there are reasons to expect Yamamoto might be the most significant NPB transfer in years. For one thing, his performance in Japan is just stronger than some others that have recently made the jump. Kodai Senga had an ERA of 2.42 before crossing the Pacific, Kenta Maeda 2.39 and Ohtani 2.55. The other factor is his age, as Yamamoto just turned 25 in August. Senga came over for his age-30 season and Maeda for his age-28 campaign, while Ohtani came over when he was still an amateur and couldn’t secure a true open market deal.

As you can see with the other guys listed in this post, most MLB players don’t reach free agency until around their 30th birthday. The ability for a club to sign a dominant pitcher for their late 20s just doesn’t happen, making Yamamoto a very interesting case. There’s a decent chance he gets a bigger contract than everyone else here except for Ohtani. Yamamoto won’t be eligible for a qualifying offer but the signing club will have to pay a posting fee to the Buffaloes, which will be relative to the size of the contract.

• Shota Imanaga (30)

Imanaga isn’t quite as exciting as Yamamoto, but should draw plenty of interest in his own right. Over his eight NPB seasons, the left-hander has appeared in 163 games with an ERA of 3.17. That mark was 2.26 last year and is at 2.71 this year. He is striking out 30% of batters faced this year while walking just 3.8%. It was reported earlier this month that the Yokohama DeNa Baystars will post him for big league clubs.

Given his age and performance, his earning power will clearly be less than that of Yamamoto, but he could still draw interest from clubs who view him as a serviceable big league starter. Like Yamamoto, Imanaga won’t be eligible for a qualifying offer but the signing club will have to pay a posting fee to the Buffaloes, which will be relative to the size of the contract.

Potential Mid-Rotation Wild Cards

• Jack Flaherty (28)

Flaherty once seemed to be a burgeoning ace with the Cardinals, posting an ERA of 3.34 in 2018 and then 2.75 in 2019. But that figure jumped to 4.91 in the shortened 2020 season and he battled injuries in the next two years, tossing just 114 1/3 frames combined over those two seasons.

This season, he’s been healthy but nowhere near his form from a few years ago. He made 20 starts for the Cardinals with a 4.43 ERA, decent enough to get him flipped to the Orioles at the deadline. His first start with the O’s saw him throw six innings against the Jays while allowing just one earned run, but he had an 8.42 ERA over his next six starts and got moved to the bullpen.

Overall, he has an ERA of 4.96 on the year, along with a 22.7% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and 42.5% ground ball rate. His 4.37 FIP indicates a bit of bad luck in his ERA, likely due to his .354 BABIP. Flaherty has been injured or middling for a few years now, which could temper his market. But he’s been healthy this year, has shown tremendous upside in the past and still has youth on his size. Like the rest of the names in this section, his market could go a number of different ways.

• Michael Lorenzen (32)

Lorenzen spent much of his career working out of the bullpen for the Reds, but made it clear upon reaching free agency that he wanted a rotation job. He got one with the Angels in 2022, signing a one-year deal with a $6.75MM guarantee, and posted a decent 4.24 ERA. He was limited by injury to just 18 starts but it was enough for him to get $8.5MM plus incentives from the Tigers for this year.

He started the year on the IL due to a groin strain but was back by mid-April and took the ball 18 times for Detroit. He posted an ERA of 3.58 and got flipped to the Phillies prior to the deadline. His tenure in Philly couldn’t have started much better, as he threw eight innings of two-run ball against the Marlins before throwing a no-hitter against the Nationals. However, he posted a 7.96 ERA in his next five starts and got bumped to the bullpen. Despite the rough run of late, he has a 4.29 ERA on the year and has stayed healthy enough to log 149 innings, which should get him plenty of interest in free agency.

• Kenta Maeda (36)

Maeda’s first full season back from Tommy John surgery has been better than it might look at first glance. The right-hander’s 101 innings of 4.28 ERA ball seem solid enough on the surface, but that’s skewed by a 10-run drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox, after which Maeda hit the injured list due to a triceps injury. Maeda missed nearly two months, but since returning he’s rattled off 16 starts of 3.39 ERA ball, striking out 28.7% of his opponents against a 6.7% walk rate. The extent to which that injury impacted his one true meltdown of the year can’t be fully known, but since returning, he’s looked close to the version of himself that finished second in American League Cy Young voting back in 2020. He should find a multi-year deal at a healthy annual value this winter, although his age might limit it to a two-year term.

• Tyler Mahle (29)

The Twins traded three prospects to acquire Mahle for a year and a half, but he wound up pitching just 42 innings for Minnesota due to a shoulder issue and, in 2023, a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery. It turned into a rotten trade, considering the Twins parted with Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to acquire Mahle.

Mahle pitched well for the Twins when healthy, however, and he has a strong overall track record dating back to his 2020 breakout: 374 innings, 3.90 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate. The right-hander’s biggest problem with the Reds was home runs, though the vast majority of the long balls he surrendered were at Cincinnati’s homer-happy Great American Ball Park. Mahle has good command, can miss bats and will be 29 for all of next season. He probably won’t pitch until the end of the 2024 season, but teams have generally been willing to sign quality arms like this to two-year deals while they rehab, with an eye toward the second year of the contract.

• Frankie Montas (31)

Speaking of deadline acquisitions that didn’t pan out,  the Yankees got just 39 2/3 innings out of Montas after trading JP Sears, Ken Waldichuk and Luis Medina to the A’s for Montas and Lou Trivino in July 2022. Shoulder surgery wiped out all of Montas’ 2023 season, and he’ll now hit the market in search of a bounceback opportunity.

Prior to his shoulder woes, Montas had stepped up as the top starter on a strong Oakland staff, logging 291 2/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball with a 26.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 44% ground-ball rate. Whoever signs him this winter will be hoping for a return to that form. Montas will pitch all of next year at 31, and a deal that allows him to return to the market next winter after reestablishing both his health and productivity makes sense.

• James Paxton (35)

After barely pitching from 2020-22, Paxton returned to the mound with 19 starts and 96 innings for the Red Sox in 2023. He posted a pedestrian 4.50 ERA, although it seems the lefty just wore down late in the season after such a lengthy layoff from pitching. Up through Aug. 16, Paxton was sporting a 3.34 ERA, but that number ballooned after he yielded 16 runs in his final 9 2/3 frames (three starts).

There’s never been much doubt about the quality of Paxton’s stuff. He posted a 3.50 ERA over his first 733 big league innings from 2013-19, peaking with a 2.98 ERA and premium strikeout/walk rates with the 2017 Mariners. Health has been a major issue, however, as he’s dealt with shoulder and forearm injuries in addition to undergoing Tommy John surgery and back surgery. Paxton turns 35 in November and has one of the highest ceilings in this class but also poses one of the greatest injury risks.

• Hyun Jin Ryu (37)

Much of what was written of Paxton holds true of Ryu as well. The 36-year-old southpaw (37 in March) has a career 3.24 ERA in 1048 big league innings and is an ace-caliber arm at best — evidenced by his runner-up finish in 2019’s NL Cy Young voting, when he posted a 2.32 ERA in 182 2/3 innings (during the juiced-ball season, no less). Ryu doesn’t have Paxton’s velocity or strikeout rate, but he has standout command and misses bats at a roughly average rate. He’s pitched 44 2/3 innings with a 2.62 ERA in his 2023 return from Tommy John surgery. It’s hard to imagine Ryu commanding anything more than two years, and his age/injury history might relegate him to one-year offers. If that’s the case, however, he should net a relatively hefty price.

• Luis Severino (30)

Severino looked like a budding ace with the Yankees in 2017-18, but injuries have limited him to just 209 1/3 innings over the past five seasons combined. A strained rotator cuff, two lat strains and Tommy John surgery are among the many injuries he’s incurred since that breakout. Severino has always pitched well when healthy — until this season, when he posted a 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 frames. An exasperated Severino candidly acknowledged in July that he felt like “the worst pitcher in the game” as he tried to get to the root of this year’s struggles. He’ll turn 30 next February, so there’s plenty of time for him to turn things around. A change of scenery seems likely, and Severino will likely have to settle for a short-term deal.

Short-Term Options If They Decide To Keep Going

• Carlos Carrasco (37)

One of the American League’s best pitchers from 2014-20, Carrasco was traded to the Mets alongside Francisco Lindor and has had an up-and-down tenure in Queens. His 2022 campaign was solid, but he’s pitched to an ERA over 6.00 in each of his other two years with the team. That includes a grisly 6.80 mark in 90 innings this season.

• Zack Greinke (40)

Greinke got a standing ovation from Royals fans as he exited his most recent start, and it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll want to come back for a 21st big league season at age 40. The future Hall of Famer is just 28 punchouts shy of becoming the 20th pitcher to ever record 3000 strikeouts, but his effectiveness has waned. Greinke’s 5.37 ERA is his highest since his age-21 season in 2005, and while his 1-15 record is largely a reflection of the disastrous team surrounding him, it underscores what a difficult season he and the Royals have had on the whole.

• Clayton Kershaw (36)

Kershaw is working on the 13th sub-3.00 ERA of his 16-year career, sporting a 2.52 mark in 121 2/3 innings. He’s still among the best in the NL when he pitches, but injuries have limited him for the eighth straight season. Kershaw hasn’t made 30 starts since 2015, but he has a 2.56 ERA in 1091 innings during that span. If he keeps pitching, it’ll likely be with the Dodgers, although his hometown Rangers tried to sign him last winter and could do so again. For any older player with a young family, there’s some allure to pitching 15 to 20 minutes from your year-round home.

• Wade Miley (37)

The second act of Miley’s career has arguably been better than the first. Since turning in consecutive mid-5.00 ERAs in 2016-17, he’s pitched 571 2/3 innings with a 3.48 ERA between the Brewers, Astros, Cubs and Reds. His second stint in Milwaukee has been sharp, with a 3.20 ERA in 115 1/3 innings. His 16.4% strikeout rate is among the lowest in the game, but Miley has above-average command and regularly ranks among the game’s best at minimizing hard contact. A team looking for a steady fourth or fifth starter at the back of the rotation can bank on him to get the job done.

Back-End Guys

• Mike Clevinger (33)

The 2023 season has been a bounceback for Clevinger, who’s posted a 3.42 ERA in 122 2/3 innings as of this writing. Tommy John surgery limited him to just 41 2/3 innings from 2020-21, and he logged a pedestrian 4.33 ERA with a middling strikeout rate in 114 1/3 innings in the 2022 season. Clevinger has upped that strikeout rate a bit in 2023 (from 18.8% to 21.1%) and is sporting a nice 7.4% walk rate. His 94.7 mph average fastball is back up to pre-surgery levels as well. Durability is a concern, as this year’s 22 starts are tied for the second-most he’s ever made in a season.

• Kyle Gibson (36)

The Orioles gave Gibson $10MM to eat innings at the back of the rotation, and that’s what he’s done, piling up 180 frames with a lackluster 5.00 ERA. Gibson has solid command and ground-ball tendencies, but he misses bats at a below-average level and his hittable arsenal leads to lots of traffic on the bases. This would be his third ERA of 5.00 or more in the past four seasons.

• Rich Hill (44)

Hill has already said he hopes to continue pitching in 2024. His effectiveness has taken a hit, particularly following a trade to the Padres, but Hill will take the ball every fifth day and was a respectable innings eater for much of the season in Pittsburgh. He’s 11 wins why of 100 in his career, 81 strikeouts away from 1500 and 97 2/3 innings from the 1500 mark. He could serve as a veteran mentor for a young staff and eat innings, just as he did in Pittsburgh this year.

• Dallas Keuchel (35)

Keuchel has plenty of good years on his résumé, including a Cy Young-winning season in 2015. But his results haven’t been great recently. After posting an ERA of 1.99 in the shortened 2020 season, that number ballooned to 5.28 the following season and a disastrous 9.20 last year.

He did some work with Driveline to restore some velocity and movement and the results have been a bit better this year. He got back to the big leagues with the Twins and has an ERA of 5.67 over a small sample of 33 1/3 innings. His 63.7% strand rate suggests a bit of bad luck, leading to a 4.25 FIP and 5.21 SIERA. It’s not a superstar performance but he seems more viable as a veteran innings eater than he did just a few months ago.

• Martin Perez (33)

Perez posted an out-of-the-blue 2.89 ERA in 32 starts for the 2022 Rangers and accepted a qualifying offer at season’s end. It hasn’t worked out for the Rangers, as he pitched to an ERA just a hair shy of 5.00 in 20 starts before being moved to a low-leverage role in the ’pen. Texas is moving him back to the rotation for the final stretch of the season after a strong run of relief work. This year’s 4.49 ERA is more or less in line with where fielding-independent metrics have pegged Perez for the past five years (4.38 FIP, 4.50 xFIP, 4.72 SIERA). He won’t come close to this year’s $19.65MM salary but could land a deal similar to those commanded by Gibson and Jordan Lyles in recent years.

Reliever/Starter Hybrids

• Matthew Boyd (33)

Boyd probably won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in late June. He can miss bats at average or better levels and pairs that ability with solid command, but injuries have regularly derailed him. A low-cost two-year deal with an eye toward a 2025 return could be on the table.

• Chris Flexen (29)

Flexen was a durable and effective member of the Mariners’ rotation in 2021-22 before his performance dropped off this year. He’s been hit hard in 10 starts with the Rockies but demonstrated good command. He could be signed to compete for the fifth or sixth spot in a rotation, with the team knowing he’s experienced in a long relief role if he doesn’t win a starting gig.

• Jakob Junis (31)

Junis has had a couple nice years as swingman in San Francisco, notching a 4.21 ERA in 196 2/3 innings (21 starts, 41 relief appearances). His 23% strikeout rate is about average, but his 5.5% walk rate is outstanding. If he doesn’t return to the Giants, another club could look to deploy him in a similar role. He should have a big league deal awaiting him on the open market.

• Alex Wood (33)

Wood’s first year with the Giants was a clear success (3.83 ERA in 26 starts after signing a one-year, $4MM deal). The subsequent two-year, $25MM deal hasn’t gone as well. Last year’s 5.10 ERA in roughly the same number of innings could be downplayed as fluky; his excellent strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates all pointed to better results. Unfortunately, Wood has seen a drop in velocity even as he’s spent some time in the bullpen, and his rate stats have all trended in the wrong direction. Hamstring and back injuries have surely played a role in that decline. Wood has a 4.60 ERA in 92 innings and fielding-independent marks to match.

Depth Options

• Zach Davies (31)

An excellent 2020 season increasingly looks like an outlier. Davies has at times been a passable fourth or fifth starter, as he was with the D-backs in 2022, but he’s posted an aggregate 5.38 ERA over the past three seasons.

• Brad Keller (28)

Keller’s run with the Royals from 2018-20 (360 innings, 3.50 ERA) was one of the best by a Rule 5 pick in recent memory. It’s been downhill since, however, and he’s been limited to 45 1/3 innings this year. The Royals recently shut him down due to symptoms associated with thoracic outlet syndrome.

• Jake Odorizzi (34)

Odorizzi missed the 2023 season due to shoulder surgery. He posted a 4.31 ERA in 211 innings with the Astros and Braves from 2021-22, rarely being asked to pitch beyond the fifth inning. Odorizzi posted a 3.88 ERA in just shy of 1000 innings from 2014-19.

• Noah Syndergaard (31)

Syndergaard has never been the same since undergoing Tommy John surgery. His power arsenal has deteriorated across the board. The Dodgers flipped him to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario prior to the deadline — a swap of underperforming veterans on underwater contracts. Cleveland released Syndergaard after six starts. It’s possible he could land a low-cost big league deal, but the Angels, Phillies, Dodgers and Guardians have all been unable to get him back to his pre-surgery form.

• Julio Teheran (33)

Teheran followed a terrific run of six starts to begin his Brewers career with a stretch of five ugly outings. He’s sitting on a 4.74 ERA with the best walk rate (4.3%) but slowest fastball (89.1 mph) of his career. Teheran logged a 3.64 ERA in 1334 innings with the Braves from 2013-19 but has a 6.27 mark in 99 innings over the four year since.

• Jose Urena (32)

Urena had some effective seasons with the Marlins earlier in his career but has been in journeyman mode since. He started this year with the Rockies but allowed 20 earned runs over 18 1/3 innings in five starts before being released. He’s currently eating innings for the White Sox as that club plays out the string. He has a 5.55 ERA dating back to the start of 2019 and a mark of 7.27 this year.

• Vince Velasquez (32)

Velasquez has long had potent stuff but has struggled to produce strong results, with his ERA hovering around 5.00 for most of his career. He showed some positive steps with the Pirates this year, posting an ERA of 3.86 in eight starts, but unfortunately required elbow surgery that will keep him out of action until the middle of 2024. He should find a short-term deal of some kind, though the injury will limit the commitment from the team side.

• Luke Weaver (30)

The Reds gave Weaver a surprisingly long leash, in part because they didn’t do anything to address their rotation depth in the winter and incurred several injuries. The former top prospect has posted an ERA north of 6.00 in three of the past four seasons (6.09 overall), including a 6.77 mark in 114 2/3 innings this year. He’ll likely have to take a minor league deal.

Minor League Depth Options

• Jason Alexander (31)
• A.J. Alexy (26)
• Daniel Castano (29)
• Matt Dermody (33)
• Chi Chi Gonzalez (32)
• Shane Greene (35)
• Zach Logue (28)
• Michael Mariot (35)
• Mike Mayers (32)
• Alec Mills (32)
• Tommy Milone (37)
• Daniel Norris (31)
• Zach Plesac (29)
• Dereck Rodriguez (32)
• Jose Rodriguez (28)
• Adrian Sampson (32)
• Devin Smeltzer (28)
• Zach Thompson (30)
• Spenser Watkins (31)
• Mitch White (29)

Players With Opt-Outs/Player Options

• Andrew Heaney (33), $13MM player option with no buyout, which jumps to $20MM at 150 innings pitched in 2023

After years of middling results, Heaney seemed to take a step forward with the Dodgers last year. He dragged a career ERA of 4.72 into 2022 but then posted a 3.10 ERA that year. He was limited by injury to just 72 2/3 innings, but it was still strong enough for the Rangers to guarantee him $25MM over two years along with incentives and an opt-out.

Here in 2023, he hasn’t quite been able to maintain last year’s momentum. He has stayed healthy and has thrown 138 1/3 innings but his ERA has ticked up to 4.42. Last year’s 35.5% strikeout rate has dropped all the way to 24% this year, with his walk rate also going from 6.1% to 9.4%.

Heaney’s last three outings have come out of the bullpen, which is partly due to his results but also reflects a financial motivation for the move. The second year of his contract is a $13MM player option, but the value jumps to $20MM if he throws 150 innings this year. He might have already been over that line if he stayed in the rotation but might now come up just short. Given his uninspiring season, he surely would have accepted a $20MM salary but it will be more of a borderline call if it stays at $13MM.

• Seth Lugo (34), $7.5MM player option with no buyout

Lugo had been mainly working out of the Mets’ bullpen for his career until he reached free agency after last year. He got widespread interest from clubs who thought he could move back to the rotation and eventually signed with the Padres on a two-year, $15MM deal, with the second year being a $7.5MM player option.

The move to a starting role has gone about as well as anyone could have hoped. He made one trip to the IL due to a calf strain, missing just over a month, but has otherwise stayed healthy. He has logged 137 2/3 innings over 25 starts with a 3.79 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 45.7% ground ball rate.

Lugo should be a lock to turn down his player option and return to free agency. He’s one year older than his last trip to the open market, but now has proof of his ability to handle a starter’s workload while maintaining his effectiveness.

• Sean Manaea (32), $12.5MM player option with no buyout

Manaea had some strong years with the A’s but his platform season with the Padres was arguably the worst of his career. He had a 3.86 ERA at the end of 2021 but then posted a 4.96 figure in 2022. The Giants decided to bank on him anyway, giving him a two-year, $25MM deal with an opt-out after the first season.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to return to his previous form. He has made 35 appearances, only eight of which are considered true starts thanks to creative pitcher usage in San Francisco, logging 104 2/3 innings with a 4.82 ERA that’s closer to last year’s performance than earlier seasons. His 26.1% strikeout rate is one of the strongest of his career but his 9.3% walk rate is easily the highest he’s ever had.

It’s possible there’s some bad luck in here, with his 62% strand rate being on the low side and leading to a 4.05 FIP and 3.87 SIERA. Manaea got a decent guarantee coming off a weak season and could perhaps find a similar deal if he opted out, but there might be more hesitancy from clubs after a second straight underwhelming campaign.

• Eduardo Rodriguez (31), can opt out of three years and $49MM remaining on contract

Rodriguez parlayed his years of rotation work in Boston into a five-year, $77MM deal with the Tigers. His first season in Detroit didn’t go especially well, as he missed time both due to injury and personal issues. He made 17 starts with a 4.05 ERA as his 27.4% strikeout rate from 2021 dropped all the way to 18.4%. His looming opt-out after 2023 didn’t even seem to be worth considering but he has flipped the script this year. He’s taken the ball 24 times and has a 3.57 ERA, pushing his strikeout rate back up to 23.5%.

E-Rod is still young and effective enough that he should be able to easily top the $49MM left on his deal, especially since he’s already received a qualifying offer and won’t be eligible for another one this time around. What perhaps complicates the situation is that he used his limited no-trade clause to block a deadline deal to the Dodgers and later explained that he was “thinking about my future and my family.” His agent added that the southpaw’s family are “comfortable living in the Detroit area and have adjusted well.”

Would those same reasons lead to him declining the opt-out, even if it makes financial sense to do so? “If I had a magic ball and I could tell you what was going to happen in the future, I’d probably tell you right away,” he said a couple of months ago. “But right now I’m here, I’m with this organization. I’m signed here for a long time. I feel happy with everything. My family feels happy in Detroit. I feel happy with the teammates and everything, the organization. I’d really love to stay here, and that’s why I made that decision.”

• Drew Smyly (35), can opt-out of deal with $8.5MM salary for 2024 and $10MM mutual option for 2025 with $2.5MM buyout

Smyly’s career has been up-and-down but he had a strong 2022 with the Cubs, posting a 3.47 ERA in 106 1/3 innings. The club liked him enough to bring him back via a two-year, $19MM guarantee but he hasn’t been able to come close to last year’s results. He had a 5.40 ERA as a starter and got moved to the bullpen, where his 3.04 ERA as a reliever has improved his season-long line somewhat. He has a combined ERA of 4.99 over his 137 innings, with his walk, ground ball and home run rates all going in the wrong direction.

Combining the 2024 salary and buyout on the mutual option, Smyly essentially has to decide whether or not he wants to walk away from $11MM in order to return to free agency. Based on his struggles this year, it seems more likely that he stays.

• Ross Stripling (34), $12.5MM player option with no buyout

Stripling had typically been limited to a swing role with the Dodgers and Blue Jays, which was often due to strong rosters more than anything about Stripling specifically. He had a well-timed breakout with the Jays last year, tossing 134 1/3 innings with a 3.01 ERA. That allowed him to secure the same contract as Manaea, a $25MM guarantee over two years with an opt-out halfway through.

But his first year in San Francisco hasn’t gone well. He’s missed time due to injury and has an ERA of 5.40 in his 81 2/3 innings. He candidly admitted earlier this month that he “hasn’t pitched well enough to opt out” and seems destined for another year as a Giant.

• Marcus Stroman (33), $21MM player option with no buyout

A few months ago, Stroman seemed to be making this decision very easy on himself. Through his start on June 20, he had an ERA of 2.28 on the year. Based on those strong results and his career track record, topping $21MM on the open market would have been a slam dunk, especially since he’s already received a qualifying offer and is ineligible for another.

But the picture has changed since then. His next seven starts resulted in 30 earned runs in 30 innings, bumping his ERA all the way up to 3.85. He was then diagnosed with a rib cartilage fracture in mid-August, which sent him to the injured list for more than a month. With the season winding down and the Cubs in a tight playoff race, he was recently activated from the injured list to work out of the bullpen instead of going on a rehab assignment.

Assuming Stroman is healthy, he should still be able to beat that $21MM in free agency, but the opt-out decision isn’t quite as obvious as it was in the peak of the summer.

Players With Club Options

• Alex Cobb (36), $10MM club option with $2MM buyout

Cobb signed a two-year deal with the Giants after 2021 and has been giving them some of the best seasons of his career. He posted a 3.73 ERA last year and is at 3.87 here in 2023. Between the two campaigns, he’s struck out 22.1% of hitters, walked just 6.3% and kept 59.4% of balls in play on the ground.

Cobb was placed on the IL this week due to a hip impingement. As long as that’s a minor issue, it seems like a lock that the Giants will trigger their net $8MM decision and bring him back for another year.

• Johnny Cueto (38), $10.5MM club option with $2.5MM buyout.

Cueto has a lengthy track record of effective pitching that goes all the way back to 2008, but he had some rough seasons lately. He got back on track in 2022 with 158 1/3 innings for the White Sox with a 3.35 ERA.

He was able to parlay that into a one-year, $8.5MM deal with the Marlins with an option for 2024. Unfortunately, the results haven’t been there this year, as Cueto has spent significant time on the IL and only tossed 47 innings with a 6.32 ERA. Given his ineffective season and the fact that the Marlins have lots of intriguing young pitching, it seems likely they will turn down this net $8MM decision.

• Kyle Hendricks (34), $16MM club option with $1.5MM buyout

Hendricks has been a reliable mainstay of the Cubs’ rotation for a decade now, but he hit some choppy waters of late. He had a career ERA of 3.12 through 2020 but saw that number jump up to 4.77 in 2021 and 4.80 in 2022. He was then diagnosed with a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder in August of last year.

That shoulder issue kept him out of action until late May of this year but he seems to be healthy and back in good form. He has now made 23 starts this year with a 3.66 ERA. His 16.3% strikeout rate is definitely on the low side but his 4.3% walk rate is excellent and his 45.2% ground ball rate solid. Based on his bounceback season, it seems like there’s a decent chance the Cubs trigger their $14.5MM decision and bring him back, especially with Stroman’s likely opt-out and the struggles of pitchers like Jameson Taillon and Smyly.

• Corey Kluber (38), $11MM club option with no buyout

Kluber is a legend and has two Cy Youngs to prove it, but he hasn’t been at that level in a while. He hardly pitched over 2019 and 2020 due to injury, then signed with the Yanks for 2021. He was able to make 16 starts and post a decent 3.83 ERA, then signed with the Rays last year. He got his innings total up to 164, but with his ERA ticking up a bit to 4.34.

The Red Sox took a chance on him, giving him a one-year deal with a $10MM guarantee and club option for 2024. But it’s been a dismal year for Kluber, who was shelled in nine starts before being moved to the bullpen. He logged 55 innings with a 7.04 ERA before landing on the IL in June due to shoulder inflammation. He suffered a setback in July and was shut down from all baseball activities. He tried to begin a rehab assignment last week but was shut down and is done for the year.  The Sox will turn down this option and send Kluber back to free agency.

• Lance Lynn (37), $18MM club option with $1MM buyout.

Lynn has been an effective starter for over a decade now, having debuted in 2011 and been a mainstay in the big leagues since. But he’s grinding through the most challenging season of his career at the moment, going from the White Sox to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. Between the two clubs, he had an ERA of 5.92 over his 30 starts, the worst rate of his career by more than a full run. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate are both solid, but he’s allowed an incredible 42 home runs on the year.

The net $17MM decision will be a difficult one for the Dodgers, as they will have to decide whether they believe more in the track record or the recent results. He has at least been better since the trade, with a 6.47 ERA before and a 4.67 ERA after, so perhaps they feel they have a plan for how to work with him next year. Another factor might be the general uncertainty in the Dodger rotation, with Kershaw and Urias set to depart via free agency and injury question marks around Walker Buehler, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.

• Nick Martinez (33), team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option

Martinez had a solid season as a swingman with the Friars last year and was re-signed with a similar role in mind. He has tossed 101 1/3 innings this year over seven starts and 54 relief appearances. He has an ERA of 3.73 along with a 22.3% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 53.5% ground ball rate.

Although Martinez has generally done good work, $32MM over two years would be a high price to pay if they still considering him to be primarily a reliever. But they do have many questions in their rotation, with Snell set for free agency and Lugo and Wacha possibly following him. As of right now, only Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are locks for next year’s rotation. Perhaps the openings give the Padres enough motivation to consider Martinez for a starting role again.

• Charlie Morton (40), $20MM club option with no buyout

Morton’s late-career renaissance has continued this year, even though he’s approaching his 40th birthday. He has an ERA of 3.66 over 29 starts this year, striking out 25.6% of opponents while walking 11.4% and keeping the ball on the ground at a 43.3% clip.

He and Atlanta seem to have a good relationship, as he signed a one-year deal with them for 2021 and then twice signed one-year extensions to keep things going. The two sides could likely work something out for 2024, either that $20MM option or another price point, but the question is whether or not Morton wants to keep going. He recently spoke to Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution about his future, admitting that he still hasn’t decided about whether to come back or retire to spend more time with his family.

• Michael Wacha (32), team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option (with successive player options for 2025-26)

Wacha hung around in free agency until February, then signed a convoluted deal with the Padres. He’s making $7.5MM this year, after which the club will have to decide whether or not to trigger two club options, essentially a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha can trigger a $6.5MM player option and will also have $6MM player options to decide on again in 2025 and 2026.

He’s having a solid year in 2023, having made 22 starts with a 3.44 ERA, 22.2% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 35.8% ground ball rate. It’s debatable as to whether that performance merits a two-year, $32MM investment but the Padres have many question marks on their pitching staff. They are set to lose Snell to free agency, with Lugo and Martinez possibly following him out the door. That could perhaps incentivize to Padres to just take the proverbial bird in the hand by triggering Wacha’s option, a situation that Anthony Franco of MLBTR explored in depth this week.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield, center field, designated hitter.

Over the past week, we’ve gone around the diamond with looks at the upcoming free agent class. We round out the offensive players with a look at the designated hitters.

It is obviously headlined by the two-way star who is likely to break the all-time contract record. There are a handful of accomplished veteran hitters below the market’s top free agent. Any position player can serve as the DH, of course. A number of players from the corner outfield or first base groups will see time there to give them respites from the field.

Since we’ve covered the bulk of those players in previous position previews, we’ll limit the scope of the DH class. This looks solely at players who have either tallied 200+ plate appearances as a designated hitter or taken 100+ trips to the dish while starting more games at DH than at any other position.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Top of the Class

• Shohei Ohtani (29)

Ohtani is the most fascinating free agent case in recent memory, perhaps ever. He’s a top five hitter, perhaps on his way to a second MVP award in three seasons thanks to a .304/.412/.654 batting line with an AL-leading 44 home runs. He’s a .277/.378/.585 hitter since the start of 2021. Of the 93 batters with 1500+ plate appearances in that time, Ohtani ranks eighth in on-base percentage and trails only Aaron Judge in slugging.

Judge’s $360MM contract with the Yankees stands as the largest free agent guarantee in league history. Ohtani seems likely to top it — potentially by a wide margin. He’s a slightly lesser offensive player but is more than a year younger than Judge was last offseason and, of course, has the potential to make an impact on the other side of the ball. Ohtani probably won’t pitch until 2025 after this week’s elbow surgery, but there’s no question he’ll try to get back on the mound once his elbow heals. While there’ll be some trepidation about his arm health after a second major procedure within the last five years, there’s a chance of him returning as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher in the second season of the contract.

Ohtani’s elbow injury isn’t expected to affect his availability for 2024 as a hitter. He’ll be a strict DH for the first season of the deal, an impact power presence in the middle of a lineup. By the ’25 campaign, he’ll again be the highest-upside player in the sport.

Everyday Options

• Mitch Garver (33)

Garver has mashed his way from backup catcher in Texas to primary DH. The right-handed hitter has connected on 18 home runs and owns a .268/.370/.513 slash across 309 plate appearances. Bruce Bochy has penciled him in as the DH on 47 occasions compared to 27 starts behind the dish.

This isn’t out of nowhere. Garver popped 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins back in 2019 and hit .256/.358/.517 over 68 contests two seasons ago. When healthy, he’s an excellent offensive player. Garver has had trouble staying on the field, spending some time on the injured list in five consecutive seasons. He lost most of last year to a flexor injury that required surgery and has impacted his ability to throw. At age 33, it’s fair to wonder whether he can hold up as a team’s No. 1 catcher. Yet in the role he’s playing for Texas — a primary DH who can take occasional starts behind the plate — he’s a strong contributor.

• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (30)

Acquired from the Jays in the Gabriel Moreno/Daulton Varsho swap, Gurriel is batting .263/.313/.475 with 24 homers across 560 plate appearances. It’s a little below the .285/.329/.468 career mark he carried into the season, but it’s broadly in line with his overall track record. Gurriel makes a lot of contact and has 20-plus homer power while rarely taking walks to keep his on-base percentage around the league-average mark.

He’s a good but not elite offensive performer who is limited to left field or DH after moonlighting as an infielder early in his career. Unlike a number of players on this list, Gurriel can handle an everyday workload in the corner outfield. Public metrics are divided on his effectiveness — DRS rates him as an excellent left fielder, while Statcast pegs him a little below average — but he has topped 700 innings in each of the past three seasons. The D-Backs’ collection of plus defensive outfielders has allowed them to deploy Gurriel as a DH 49 times, easily a career high.

• J.D. Martinez (36)

Martinez signed with the Dodgers on a $10MM free agent contract. It was a surprisingly light sum coming off a .274/.341/.448 platform season with the Red Sox. Martinez indicated he took less money than he could’ve gotten elsewhere to join an excellent L.A. roster and reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc.

It’s hard to argue with the results. Martinez has popped 30 homers and owns a .271/.325/.570 line through 442 plate appearances. A career-worst 30.8% strikeout rate is somewhat alarming, though it’s tolerable so long as Martinez is making this kind of power impact. By measure of wRC+, this has been Martinez’s best offensive season since 2019. He should field multi-year offers this winter.

• Andrew McCutchen (37)

McCutchen returned to Pittsburgh last winter as a fan favorite and veteran presence for a young core. He’s still a quality on-field contributor as well, hitting .256/.378/.397 across 473 plate appearances. The Bucs kept him mostly at DH, starting him in right field on just seven occasions. While McCutchen doesn’t have the same power he did at his peak, he still has impeccable plate discipline and serves as a consistent on-base presence in the middle of the order.

It’s highly likely Cutch will be back in the Steel City in 2024. He expressed a desire to finish his career with the Pirates when he signed there last winter. The team never seemed to consider trading him despite being out of contention at the deadline. McCutchen’s return season was cut short by a partial tear in his left Achilles. General manager Ben Cherington told reporters last week that the sides will reengage on talks about a new contract once the offseason begins.

Platoon Possibilities

• Brandon Belt (36)

Belt inked a $9.3MM free agent deal with the Blue Jays last offseason. He was coming off a middling season in his final year as a Giant that had been plagued by knee issues that required surgical repair. The Jays rolled the dice on a rebound and have been rewarded with a strong performance from the 13-year veteran.

The lefty slugger is hitting .251/.369/.470 with 16 longballs through 382 trips to the plate. While he’s striking out at a career-worst 35.1% clip, he’s walking over 15% of the time and hitting the ball with authority. The Jays have barely given him looks against left-handed pitching. He’s a “three true outcomes” platoon bat who is still a middle-of-the-order presence against right-handed starters.

• Charlie Blackmon (37)

The Rockies and Blackmon have expressed mutual interest in a reunion. That seems the likeliest course of action, though the career-long Rockie indicated he wouldn’t be opposed to going elsewhere if Colorado didn’t bring him back. Blackmon is limited to DH or right field at this point.

He’s still an effective hitter, posting a .284/.372/.444 slash with seven home runs in 376 plate appearances. Blackmon still holds his own against left-handed pitching, so he’s not a prototypical platoon bat. Teams could shield him from southpaws as a means of keeping his workload in check, though. Blackmon won’t come close to the $15MM salary he made this season, but he should get a one-year deal for a 14th big league campaign.

• Joc Pederson (32)

Pederson returned to the Giants upon accepting a qualifying offer last winter. He has again been an above-average hitter, but his offense is well down from last year’s career showing. Pederson owns a .245/.353/.434 line with 15 homers through 400 trips to the plate. That includes 52 poor plate appearances versus lefties; he’s hitting .253/.356/.456 with a strong 12.4% walk rate when holding the platoon advantage.

He has never been a threat against left-handed pitching and he’s a well below-average defender when asked to man the corner outfield. It’s a limited profile, but Pederson is very good at the thing he’s asked to do most often: hitting right-handed pitching.

Depth Types

• Willie Calhoun (29)

Calhoun got into 44 games for the Yankees, hitting .239/.309/.403 across 149 trips to the plate. He elected free agency after clearing outright waivers last month.

• Ji Man Choi (33)

Choi was an above-average hitter for the Rays from 2019-22. He has had a difficult platform year, limited to 100 plate appearances by an Achilles injury, a ribcage strain and a Lisfranc injury in his right foot. Choi has hit .170/.250/.420 with a 32% strikeout rate in 33 contests divided between Pittsburgh and San Diego.

• Nelson Cruz (43)

The Padres took a $1MM flier on Cruz last winter, hoping that his down 2022 campaign could be attributable to an eye issue that required corrective vision surgery. The seven-time All-Star was released just before the All-Star Break after hitting .245/.283/.399 in 45 games. Cruz was an elite hitter into his 40s but has slumped to a .234/.300/.376 line in just under 900 plate appearances since being dealt from the Twins to the Rays at the ’21 trade deadline. He’d need to take a minor league deal if he wants to continue playing.

• Brad Miller (34)

Miller’s two-year free agent deal with Texas didn’t work out. He hit .212/.282/.324 overall, including a .214/.328/.339 slash in 27 contests this season. A left hamstring strain ended his regular season. He could technically return for a playoff run but probably wouldn’t crack the postseason roster regardless. Miller has been a productive bat-first utility option in the past, but he’s in minor league deal territory at this point.

• AJ Pollock (36)

Pollock’s offensive productivity has collapsed over the past two seasons. He still hit left-handed pitching well a season ago but didn’t produce against pitchers of either handedness in 2023. Pollock compiled a .165/.215/.318 line in 54 contests between the Mariners and Giants and was released by San Francisco three weeks ago.

• Jesse Winker (30)

Winker once looked like an elite platoon option, mashing right-handed pitching for the Reds over his first four-plus seasons. He has never been a good defender, though, and his power has evaporated over the last two years. Winker hit .219/.344/.344 for the Mariners in 2022 and has mustered only a .199/.320/.247 slash in 61 games for the Brewers this summer. He has been out since late July because of back spasms. Winker might still find a major league deal from a club hoping for a rebound, but he’ll hit free agency coming off the worst season of his career.

Player Options

• Josh Bell (31)

Bell has a $16.5MM player option for next year. The switch-hitting first baseman/DH probably hasn’t found enough offensive consistency to pass on that sum. He’s hitting .242/.318/.413 with 21 homers in 583 trips to the plate between the Guardians and Marlins. Bell has been better for the Fish than he was with Cleveland — thanks largely to an August power barrage — but his production has dropped again this month.

He’s hitting .233/.282/.370 since the start of September. His ground-ball rate has skyrocketed to a lofty 55.6% clip. Bell has intermittently tapped into his massive raw power upside during his career. He just hasn’t consistently shown the ability to keep the ball off the ground for extended stretches.

• Matt Carpenter (38)

Carpenter is going to accept a $5.5MM player option for next season. He’s hitting .176/.322/.319 with five homers through 237 plate appearances and has had extended stretches without any game action for San Diego. The Padres hoped he’d replicate last year’s resurgent small-sample offensive showing with the Yankees. That hasn’t come to pass.

• Jorge Soler (32)

Soler has had a strong second season with the Marlins. After stumbling to a .207/.295/.400 line in the first season of a three-year free agent deal, he carries a .244/.336/.518 slash with 36 longballs through 550 plate appearances this year. He’s going to decline a $13MM player option in search of a multi-year pact as a result.

A well below-average defensive outfielder, Soler has only gotten 233 2/3 innings of right field work this season. He’s miscast as an everyday outfielder and ideally suited for primary DH work. Soler has the ability to carry a lineup when he’s going well, combining strong walk rates with top-of-the-scale power potential. He’s a streaky hitter but has 40-plus homer pop, as he has shown this season.

• Justin Turner (39)

Nearing his 39th birthday, Turner has logged a career-high 93 starts at designated hitter. That’s partially attributable to the Red Sox having Triston Casas and Rafael Devers as their corner infield tandem, though it’s also fair to presume Turner might now spend the bulk of his time as a DH.

Turner hasn’t shown much sign of slowing down offensively, however. He has connected on 23 home runs in 596 trips to the plate, running a well above-average .280/.351/.467 batting line. His modest 16.8% strikeout rate is right where it sat over his final four seasons as a Dodger, while he’s walking at an average 8.6% clip. The bulk of his power impact has come against left-handed pitching this season, but Turner still owns a quality .278/.346/.449 mark versus right-handers since the beginning of 2022. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He should easily surpass the $6.7MM difference on the open market, making this a straightforward call to decline the option.

Note: Miguel Cabrera will technically become a free agent once the Tigers decline an option for 2024. He has been excluded from this list after announcing his impending retirement.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield, center field

Throughout the week, we’ve covered the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR. As Anthony Franco noted earlier today, we’ll now move to the outfield. You can check out that piece for a preview of the left field/right field options available this winter, but we’ll focus here on center field — one of the relatively well-stocked (emphasis on “relatively”) areas of the position player market this winter.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Everyday Options

• Cody Bellinger (28)

Non-tendered by the Dodgers last year, Bellinger has enjoyed a hugely successful rebound with the Cubs. In 492 plate appearances, the former NL Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player has posted a huge .316/.358/.545 batting line with 25 home runs, 20 stolen bases and a career-low 16.1% strikeout rate. He’s walking at the lowest rate of his career (6.5%) and chasing balls out of the strike zone far more than he did at his peak. However, he’s also sporting career-high contact rates on pitches off the plate (71.7%) and pitches within the strike zone (87.1%).

Bellinger missed about six weeks of the season with a knee injury, which might be the only thing that stops him from reestablishing himself as a 30-homer slugger. Were it not for that absence, he’d have had a legitimate chance to deliver a 30-30 season with above-average defense at multiple spots (center field, first base).

The 2021-22 seasons were nightmarish for Bellinger, though they came in the wake of 2020 shoulder surgery. Bellinger also suffered a fractured fibula early in the ’22 campaign that could well have impacted him at the plate even after his return. His quality of contact isn’t as impressive as it once was — Bellinger averaged 91.1 mph off the bat with a 45.6% hard-hit rate in 2019, compared to 87.9 mph and 31.7% in 2023 — but the results are hard to ignore. In a market with so few bats of note, Bellinger stands not only as one of the best but also as the youngest option available.

The Cubs will make Bellinger a qualifying offer, and he’ll reject it with little thought. They’ll be one of many teams angling to sign him this winter, but Bellinger and agent Scott Boras will probably try to see to it that whoever inks him does so to the tune of $200MM or more.

• Harrison Bader (30)

Bader’s offense in 2023 certainly hasn’t been that of an everyday player. He’s batted just .237/.280/.356 on the year — the worst performance in any of his full seasons at the MLB level. Part of that is likely due to an uptick in fly balls and decrease in the percentage of those flies that have become home runs, but Bader has probably also had a bit of misfortune on balls in play; his .268 BABIP is 50 points lower than the career mark he carried into the year.

Even with some slight positive regression, it hasn’t been a good year at the plate. Bader has never walked much, and he’s doing so at just a 5% clip in 2023. He’s putting the ball in play more than ever before (career-low 17.5% strikeout rate), but he’s rarely doing so in an impactful manner (86 mph average exit velocity).

That said, Bader’s most valuable skills are still shining. He’s a lights-out center fielder — a legitimately elite defender who’s posted 6 Defensive Runs Saved and 10 Outs Above Average in just 735 innings this season. He’s also pummeling left-handed pitching, hitting southpaws at a .317/.380/.610 clip this season. Bader’s above-average speed is on display more than ever before, too. His 19 steals are a career-best mark, and he’s only been caught three times.

Bader’s glove alone will earn him a multi-year deal, and he showed from 2018-21 that he has the potential to deliver at least average offense. In that four-year run with St. Louis, Bader hit .244/.325/.420 in 419 games. With a high floor and a ceiling in the four to five WAR range, Bader could surprise some onlookers with a strong multi-year deal this winter. That he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer only helps his case.

• Kevin Kiermaier (34)

Speaking of preternatural outfield defenders, you’d never know by watching Kiermaier in the outfield that his 2022 season ended with hip surgery. The longstanding defensive wizard is back to vintage form and enjoying one of his best all-around seasons. The longtime Rays outfielder has logged 866 innings in center field in his first year with Toronto and racked up 16 Defensive Runs Saved and 11 Outs Above Average. He’s nowhere near his career-best 38 DRS (not a typo), but those 16 DRS rank eighth in the Majors at any position (one behind his outfield-mate Daulton Varsho in left field). His 11 OAA are tied for “only” 14th in the game.

Injuries tend to come with the territory for Kiermaier — in part due to the reckless abandon with which he plays his position — and the Jays have been good about affording him plenty of rest to keep him fresh. He also had a brief stay on the 10-day IL after a collision with the outfield wall required eight stitches in his elbow. He’s tallied just 361 plate appearances this year but turned in a nice .271/.331/.433 batting line with eight homers and 13 steals.

Kiermaier managed to land a one-year, $9MM deal in Toronto when he was coming off a notable surgery, and he’s now had a healthy and productive season. He’s not only reestablished himself among baseball’s premier defensive players, he’s turned in one of his best offensive campaigns, on a rate basis, and should be in position to command a multi-year deal. The Jays will face an interesting call on the qualifying offer. A one-year deal for Kiermaier worth around $20MM might well prove worthwhile, but the risk of injury is so substantial that they may opt not to roll those dice.

• Michael A. Taylor (33)

Though he’s often been used in a part-time role, Taylor is enjoying a career year offensively in Minnesota, where he’s swatted a personal-best 20 homers in just 354 trips to the plate. He’s also added 14 doubles and swiped 13 bases in 14 tries. Granted, a career-low 5.9% walk rate and career-high 33.3% strikeout rate call into question how likely it is that he can sustain this type of output, but Taylor’s .229/.281/.456 slash is roughly average, by measure of wRC+ (99).

Moreover, even if a team doesn’t expect Taylor to replicate that offense, he’s a strong enough defender that there’s a case to trot him out to center field every day anyhow. In 891 innings this year, he’s posted positive marks in DRS (5) and OAA (9). Dating back to 2017, he’s posted respective marks of 68 and 52 in those categories, ranking as one of the best defensive players in MLB — regardless of position.

Taylor’s glove alone makes him a viable source of two to three WAR, and if he shows he’s able to sustain his 2023 power surge, he could find himself in an everyday role. He’ll have a chance at landing a multi-year deal this winter. He’s QO-eligible, but solid as his season has been, he won’t receive one.

Platoon Options

• Adam Duvall (35)

He’s primarily been a corner outfielder in his career, but Duvall was signed to play center field in Boston and has done so for 448 innings during the 2023 season. That number would be higher had he not missed multiple months with a fractured wrist. Defensive metrics like DRS (-6) and OAA (-3) aren’t a fan of Duvall’s work in center, as one might expect for a 34-year-old who’s effectively playing out of position.

Duvall’s once-elite grades in the outfield corners have faded to average or slightly above in recent seasons, and the corners are probably where he’ll play the majority of the time with a new team. But he’s at least capable of handling part-time center field work, and his bat is his carrying tool anyhow. While Duvall has a penchant for low walk rates and bottom-of-the-barrel OBPs, there’s little doubting his power. He’s enjoying a nice rebound at the plate, hitting .254/.316/.543 with 19 home runs in only 310 plate appearances.

Duvall isn’t likely to sign as an everyday center fielder, but he can float through all three outfield slots and mix in time at designated hitter wherever he signs in 2024 — likely on a multi-year deal.

• Joey Gallo (30)

Gallo got out to a blistering start after signing a one-year, $11MM deal with the Twins. They’ve stuck with him throughout the year, even though his bat went cold in May and has never really rebounded. Gallo is hitting just .177/.301/.440 on the season, but he’s delivered a dreary .159/.287/.365 slash in his past 275 plate appearances. The Twins would’ve had ample justification to move on at any point, but he could yet finish out the year on their roster. Gallo recently hit the 10-day IL with a foot injury and could return during the final couple weeks.

Since being traded from the Rangers to the Yankees in 2021, Gallo carries a .166/.293/.396 batting line in 970 plate appearances. He’s smashed 53 home runs in that time — 21 this season — but also has fanned in 40.5% of his plate appearances. Someone with his power and walk rate will likely get a big league deal this winter, but it’s hard to imagine him being ticketed for an everyday role in center field, where he’s played just 46 innings this season (but has 463 innings of experience in his big league career).

• Randal Grichuk (32)

Grichuk was enjoying a fine season in Colorado, slashing .308/.365/.496 at the time of a trade to the Angels. His bat has wilted since that swap, as he’s turned in a tepid .203/.253/.392 output in 154 plate appearances. Grichuk has 14 homers in 417 plate appearances overall. As is frequently the case, he’s played all three outfield spots but graded out below-average in center. Grichuk is best suited for corner work, where he has positive grades for his career. That’s particularly true in right field, where his strong throwing arm is best deployed.

Teams in need of help against left-handed pitching will surely be drawn to Grichuk’s massive .320/.386/.573 slash when holding the platoon advantage this year. He’s a lifetime .266/.314/.502 hitter in such situations as well. He’s gone unclaimed on waivers twice, but that’s likely due to a $9.333MM salary more than it is sheer disinterest in him. Grichuk makes for a fine bench bat who can be used in a larger role as injuries elsewhere on the roster might necessitate.

Infield/Outfield Hybrids

• Enrique Hernandez (32)

Hernandez had a great first year in Boston after signing a two-year deal, tanked in 2022, was extended anyway, and has struggled for much of the 2023 season. Since a trade to the Dodgers, he’s rebounded to the tune of a .267/.329/.427 slash, but the offense has been suspect as a whole for the bulk of the past five years. That 2021 campaign stands out as Hernandez’s only above-average season at the plate since 2019. Over the past five seasons, he owns a collective .237/.306/.394 line.

Hernandez can go get it in center field, however — evidenced by 23 DRS and 17 OAA in just 2629 career innings at the position. He’s a viable defensive option around the outfield and at second base, although the Red Sox proved this year that he shouldn’t be entrusted with anything more than emergency duties at shortstop. Hernandez has generally hit lefties well and has enough defensive aptitude and versatility to command a big league deal.

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa (29)

Kiner-Falefa got his first career look in center field this year, and held his own, though the Yankees have used him at the position more sparingly as the season’s worn on (in part due to recent promotions of other players). “IKF” has previously drawn plus defensive marks at third base and left field, and he’ll now hit the free agent market as a light-hitting jack-of-all-trades who can be deployed in super utility fashion. He’s hitting .240/.307/.341 on the season, which is roughly in line with his career .261/.314/.346 batting line in 2397 plate appearances.

Fourth Outfielders and Depth Candidates

• Adam Engel (32)

Engel posted eye-popping defensive marks in center during his first two big league seasons (2017-18) and hit well in a small sample from 2020-21. He’s still an above-average defender, though not to the same extent as he was at 25-26 years of age. He’s also a career .224/.279/.349 hitter who’s battled multiple injuries in recent seasons. His glove alone will get him interest on a minor league deal though.

• Jake Marisnick (33)

It’s easy to overlook just how good Marisnick has been defensively in his career. Since his 2013 debut, he ranks eighth among all outfielders with 80 DRS and 12th with 53 OAA. That comes despite the fact that nearly everyone ahead of him on the list has hundreds, if not thousands more innings in the outfield. He’s a career .228/.281/.385 hitter in 2247 plate appearances, however, and the lack of offense typically relegates him to minor league deals and bench roles.

• Kevin Pillar (35)

Pillar was a human highlight reel early in his career with the Blue Jays, but his defensive prowess has understandably waned as he’s aged into his mid-30s. The Braves have only given him 24 innings in center this year, primarily deploying him in left field. Pillar has never gotten on base at a high clip, and this year’s .236/.260/.422 slash is a bit more of an extreme development of his lifetime .258/.295/.409 batting line. He signed a minor league deal with a $3MM base this past offseason and could find similar interest this winter.

• Raimel Tapia (30)

Tapia has good bat-to-ball skills and speed but is light on power, evidenced by a career .273/.317/.388 batting line. Much of his production at the big league level has come at Coors Field, and he was released twice in 2023 (Brewers, Red Sox) after posting a combined .230/.308/.338 line. Tapia has primarily played left field but has 469 innings of center field work in his career. He’ll probably sign another minor league deal this winter.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield.

Throughout the week, we’ve covered the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR. We move today to the outfield. Teams often use left and right fielders interchangeably, so we’ll combine them into a single corner outfield group. It’s not a great class but is arguably among the stronger options in a light market for position players. Everyone in the center field class could handle a corner, but we’ll cover them separately and look specifically at players who have logged substantial corner outfield reps this year.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Top of the Class

• Teoscar Hernández (31); eligible for qualifying offer

Hernández entered the season as one of the top hitters in the entire free agent class. He looked likely to get nine figures if he posted another offensive showing near the .283/.333/.519 slash he managed during his final three seasons as a Blue Jay. His first season in Seattle has been a roller-coaster, but he’s doing his best to salvage things as the year draws to a close.

The righty-hitting slugger had a sub-.700 OPS in each of April, May and July. He was excellent in June and has been one of the best hitters on the planet since the start of August, hitting .344/.377/.591 in 167 plate appearances. The season line — .267/.312/.457 with 25 homers over 145 games — is more solid than elite, but he has looked like vintage Hernández over the last six weeks. He has also turned in decent defensive marks in just under 1100 right field innings, a welcome improvement over consistently below-average grades for his glove in Toronto.

By catching fire in the second half, Hernández has put himself back in consideration for a lofty multi-year pact. He has solidified himself as a likely qualifying offer recipient, which he should reject in search of a longer deal. His camp could take aim at the $100MM pact that Nick Castellanos landed from the Phillies two winters back.

Everyday Players

• Michael Brantley (37)

Brantley has assumed the “professional hitter” moniker and continued to live up to it even into his mid-30s. He has been a well above-average offensive player whenever healthy, including a .288/.370/.416 line with more walks than strikeouts a year ago. His season was cut short by August shoulder surgery. The Astros brought him back on a $12MM contract in hopes he’d be ready not long after Opening Day.

Continued soreness intervened. Brantley didn’t make his season debut until the end of August. He has only appeared in 10 games thus far. Injuries are an ever-present concern at this stage of his career, but Brantley remains one of the best pure hitters in the upcoming free agent class. Any team that signs him will bake in plenty of rest days and likely rotate him between designated hitter and left field rather than counting on him for 100+ starts in the outfield.

• Adam Duvall (35)

Duvall has been a corner outfielder for the bulk of his career, but the Red Sox pushed him to primary center field duty in 2023. Defensive metrics suggest he’s better suited for a corner — not especially surprising given his age — but he has hit well enough to earn a raise relative to this year’s $7MM salary.

The righty-swinging slugger has connected on 19 homers in only 310 plate appearances, with that workload limited by an early-season wrist fracture sustained when he dove for a ball. It’s the kind of production we’ve come to expect from the 10-year veteran: plus power to compensate for a propensity for strikeouts and a middling walk rate. Duvall has been an above-average hitter, as measured by wRC+, in four of the last five seasons. He has three 30-homer seasons to his name and could have gotten there this year were it not for the injury. His age will limit the length of offers on the table, but he’s having one of the better platform performances among the outfield class.

• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (30)

Gurriel offers a broadly similar profile to Duvall: right-handed power with subpar on-base marks. He’s five years younger and makes a lot more contact, although he’s strictly a left field option. Acquired from the Jays in the Gabriel Moreno/Daulton Varsho swap, Gurriel is batting .258/.308/.470 with 23 homers in 536 plate appearances — numbers that are in line with the solid career track record he has compiled.

It has been a year of peaks and valleys, though. Gurriel was among the best hitters in the majors in May and owns a .290/.344/.536 line going back to the start of August. In between, he hit .174/.220/.331. It’s a volatile but generally effective offensive profile. The D-Backs probably wouldn’t risk the qualifying offer, but Gurriel could receive three or four years at $10MM+ annually.

• Tommy Pham (36)

Pham is amidst his best season since 2019. The righty-hitting veteran has combined for a .267/.336/.474 line with 16 homers across 423 plate appearances between the Mets and Diamondbacks. His 9.2% walk rate is solid, if below his peak level, while he’s striking out at a league average 22.2% figure. Despite his age, Pham still rates as a capable defender in left field. He continues to post huge exit velocities, although that hard contact is often mitigated by a propensity to hit the ball on the ground. Pham is not an impact player, but he’s a well-rounded regular who can hit pitchers of either handedness well.

• Hunter Renfroe (32)

Renfroe has been a solid but unexceptional performer for the bulk of his career. He hits for power and typically plays decent right field defense (although this year’s metrics aren’t good). He’s not viable in center field and runs subpar on-base marks. Renfroe has settled in as a second-division regular, bouncing from team to team but earning playing time wherever he lands.

He’s having a bit of a down year, with his 20 home runs in 538 plate appearances trending towards a career low in a full schedule. He owns a .235/.299/.421 line between the Angels and Reds overall. The strikeout and walk profile is in line with his career marks, but he’s lost a couple ticks of exit velocity.

Strong Side Platoon

• Joey Gallo (30)

Gallo is athletic enough to handle any outfield position and the Twins have given him some reps at first base. He had a strong first couple weeks in the Twin Cities but has slumped since May and now carries a .177/.301/.440 line over 332 plate appearances. The sub-Mendoza average is nothing new, but this year’s 42.8% strikeout rate is high even by Gallo’s standards. He has hit 21 homers and walked at a huge 14.5% clip, leading to a roughly average wRC+ figure (103). That’s still not the bounceback the Minnesota front office envisioned when guaranteeing him $11MM last winter.

• Jason Heyward (34)

After years of below-average offense for the Cubs, Heyward has found an offensive resurgence in Los Angeles. The Dodgers have almost completely shielded him from left-handed pitching, and he has responded with a .278/.357/.483 showing over 303 plate appearances versus righties. Heyward is walking at a 10.2% clip, has connected on 14 homers and is only striking out 16.5% of the time. He remains an excellent defender. Teams will have to weigh that against his age and years of underwhelming offense in Chicago, but he clearly earned himself another big league opportunity and might even find a two-year deal.

• Joc Pederson (32)

The Giants surprisingly made Pederson a qualifying offer last winter; less surprisingly, he accepted. Pederson has still been an above-average hitter, but his offense is well down from last year’s career showing. He’s hitting .247/.359/.427 with 13 homers through 376 plate appearances. That includes 49 dismal plate appearances versus lefties, but he has a strong .261/.367/.464 line with a 12.8% walk rate when holding the platoon advantage. Pederson has never been a threat against left-handed pitching and he’s a well below-average defender. It’s a limited profile, but he’s very good at the thing he’s asked to do most often: hitting right-handed pitching.

• David Peralta (36)

The Dodgers have shielded Peralta from left-handed pitching, keeping him to 32 plate appearances against southpaws. The 10-year veteran has a modest .259/.298/.391 showing in 320 trips to the dish against righties. Peralta has a better career track record in that role, but his power production has dropped off this year.

Situational/Role Players

• Charlie Blackmon (37)

The Rockies and Blackmon have expressed mutual interest in a reunion. That seems the likeliest course of action, though the career-long Rockie indicated he wouldn’t be opposed to going elsewhere if Colorado didn’t bring him back. Blackmon is limited to right field or designated hitter at this stage of his career. He’s still an effective hitter, posting a .276/.368/.429 line with seven homers through 351 plate appearances. He won’t come close to the $15MM salary he made this season, but he should get a one-year deal for a 14th big league campaign.

• Robbie Grossman (34)

Grossman is a switch-hitter who makes his living from the right side of the plate. He owns an excellent .303/.407/.488 batting line against left-handed pitching over the last three seasons. When facing a righty, he has has hit .199/.307/.334. The platoon splits have been even more drastic this year. Grossman’s ability to hit left-handed pitching makes him a solid role player, although he’s miscast in an everyday job. He signed with the Rangers for $2MM last winter and could earn a modest raise on that figure in 2024.

• Aaron Hicks (34)

Over two years of below-average production culminated in Hicks’ release from the Yankees in May. The switch-hitter has found another gear since signing with the Orioles, hitting .287/.381/.461 over 53 games. That’s a glimpse of the hitter Hicks was at his peak, though he’s now a fringe defender and has landed on the injured list twice with Baltimore. While he’s probably a fourth outfielder on a contender, the 11-year veteran earned another guaranteed big league opportunity.

He won’t cost a signing team any more than the league minimum, as the Yankees remain on the hook for the rest of his consecutive $9.5MM salaries from 2024-25. Hicks’ camp will likely receive a number of offers at the $740K minimum rate, meaning he’ll make his decision based on clubs’ competitive outlooks and the playing time available.

• Travis Jankowski (33)

Jankowski has been a quality fourth outfielder for the Rangers after an offseason minor league pact. He’s hitting .265/.352/.335 over 282 plate appearances. Jankowski has excellent strike zone awareness and works plenty of walks despite bottom-of-the-scale power. He’s a good baserunner (19-for-20 in stolen base attempts this season) and an above-average defender at any outfield spot. The complete dearth of power means he’ll always be limited to a situational job, but he’s potentially secured himself a big league contract this time around.

Infield/Outfield Hybrids

• Brian Anderson (31)

Anderson bounces between third base and the corner outfield. He was a solid regular for the Marlins from 2018-20 but is hitting .230/.317/.361 in more than 1000 trips to the plate over the last three years. Anderson has played the ’23 campaign in Milwaukee after being non-tendered by the Marlins. He hasn’t produced much beyond a solid first month, posting a .224/.309/.364 slash with a career-worst 30.1% strikeout rate in 94 games.

• Enrique Hernández (32)

Hernández struggled at shortstop to begin the season. He has moved back into a utility capacity as a result, playing mostly second base and center field but logging some corner outfield action and occasional shortstop work. He’s amidst a second straight well below-average offensive season, hitting .236/.294/.353 over 469 plate appearances. Things have turned around since a midseason trade. After posting a .222/.279/.320 line in Boston, he owns a .267/.329/.427 slash through 146 plate appearances in L.A. He’ll likely land another guaranteed deal but seems hard-pressed to match the $10MM salary he received from the Red Sox last September.

• Tony Kemp (32)

Kemp is a contact-hitting second base/left field option. He’s not a great defender at either spot, but he was a solid regular for the A’s from 2021-22 before a down ’23 campaign. The left-handed hitter owns a .211/.304/.311 line through 398 trips to the plate. That’s in large part a reflection of an unsustainably poor .222 average on balls in play. Kemp has strong plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills; he’s one of just two players (Luis Arraez being the other) with 300+ plate appearances and more walks than strikeouts. He could find a major league deal as a result.

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa (29)

After playing catcher, shortstop and third base in recent years, Kiner-Falefa has branched into the outfield for the Yankees in 2023. He has logged 267 1/3 innings in center field and slightly more between the two corner spots (mostly left field). Public defensive metrics have given him mixed reviews, though that’s probably to be expected given his lack of experience on the grass. No one will target Kiner-Falefa as a regular in the corner outfield. He’s not effective enough a hitter for that. He has broadened his versatility for a bench role, though. Kiner-Falefa puts the ball in play without much impact and runs below-average walk totals. He’s a contact-hitting utility option who owns a .253/.311/.332 mark since landing in New York.

• Whit Merrifield (35)

Merrifield’s contract contains an $18MM mutual option with a $500K buyout. The Jays are very likely to decline their end, sending the veteran back to free agency. He’s one of the better players available in the second base class but also has plenty of corner outfield experience, where he’s roughly a league average defender. Merrifield is hitting .279/.321/.391 on the season, solid offense but a line that fits better at the keystone than at a bat-first outfield position.

Veteran Depth

• Willie Calhoun (29)

Calhoun got into 44 games for the Yankees, hitting .239/.309/.403 across 149 trips to the plate. He elected free agency after clearing outright waivers last month.

• Corey Dickerson (35)

Dickerson appeared in 50 games for the Nationals after signing a $2.25MM free agent deal. He put up a career-worst .250/.283/.354 line and was released in early August. Dickerson had been an average or better hitter for the bulk of his career but he’s in minor league deal territory at this stage.

• Randal Grichuk (32)

Grichuk started the season well in Colorado. It fell apart after a deadline trade to the Angels, with whom he’s hitting .203/.253/.392 in 41 games. The Halos have put him on waivers at least twice; he went unclaimed both times. He should still find a major league deal based on his ability to cover all three outfield spots and hit left-handed pitching. The righty-swinging Grichuk owns a .291/.332/.538 slash against southpaws over the last three seasons. He’s a .240/.285/.389 hitter versus righties in that same period.

• Wil Myers (33)

The Reds rolled the dice on a bounceback year from Myers last winter, guaranteeing him $7.5MM. It didn’t materialize, as the former All-Star hit .189/.257/.283 in 37 contests. Cincinnati released him in June as their wave of young talent hit the major league level. He didn’t sign elsewhere after that.

• Kevin Pillar (35)

Pillar broke camp with the Braves after an offseason minor league deal. He has held his roster spot all year, hitting .236/.260/.422 with seven homers in 169 plate appearances. A formerly elite defender in center field, he’s more of a corner option at this stage of his career. Pillar still plays decent defense in a sheltered role and has some pop, but it’ll come with a well below-average OBP.

• AJ Pollock (36)

Pollock’s offensive productivity has collapsed over the past two seasons. He still hit left-handed pitching well a season ago but didn’t produce against pitchers of either handedness in 2023. Pollock compiled a .165/.215/.318 line in 54 contests between the Mariners and Giants and was released by San Francisco two weeks ago.

• Jurickson Profar (31)

Profar settled for a $10MM deal with the Rockies late in Spring Training after opting out of his contract with the Padres. His time in Colorado was a disaster, as the switch-hitter managed only a .236/.316/.364 line despite the confines of Coors Field. The Rockies released him at the end of August. Profar circled back to San Diego on a minor league deal and was quickly called to the MLB club. He could find another major league deal this offseason, but he’s coming off his worst season in five years.

• Raimel Tapia (30)

Tapia is a contact and speed player who is best suited for left field. It’s an atypical profile that has led to diminishing playing time over the past couple seasons. He got into 59 games between the Red Sox and Brewers this year, hitting .230/.308/.338 between the clubs. Released by Milwaukee last month, he’s now in Triple-A with the Rays.

• Jesse Winker (30)

Winker once looked like an elite platoon option, mashing right-handed pitching for the Reds over his first four-plus seasons. He has never been a good defender, though, and his power has evaporated over the last two years. Winker hit .219/.344/.344 for the Mariners in 2022 and has mustered only a .199/.320/.247 slash in 61 games for the Brewers this summer. He has been out since late July because of back spasms. Winker might still find a major league deal from a club hoping for a rebound, but he’ll hit free agency coming off the worst season of his career.

Player Options

• Michael Conforto (31)

Conforto has a borderline option case. By tallying 350 plate appearances, he vested the ability to decline an $18MM salary for next year in favor of free agency. He has returned from the shoulder injury that cost him all of last season but hasn’t found his peak offensive form. Conforto owns a .251/.343/.405 slash with 15 homers through 426 trips to the plate. That’s more in line with his slightly above-average work from his 2021 season (.232/.344/.384) than his All-Star form of 2017-20.

The left-handed hitter had started to find his stride coming out of the All-Star Break before suffering a left hamstring strain that sent him to the injured list on August 25. He’s expected back from that imminently, just in time for what the Giants hope will be a playoff run. This could go in either direction depending on how Conforto finishes the year.

• Jorge Soler (32)

Soler’s opt-out decision is clear. He has a $12MM salary for next year, which would escalate to $13MM if he returns from an oblique strain in time to tally 18 more plate appearances during the regular season. In either case, it’s not likely to dissuade him from exploring the market.

After a down first season in Miami, the streaky slugger has performed at the middle-of-the-order level the front office had envisioned. Soler has popped 35 homers with a .240/.329/.513 line through 532 trips to the plate. He’s walking at a solid 10.9% clip and has cut his strikeout rate by five percentage points to a manageable 24.9%.

Soler is a well below-average defender. The Marlins have used him mostly at designated hitter, though he has picked up 233 2/3 right field innings. Any team that signs him is doing so for the bat, but he could find another three-year pact in a market without many clear offensive upgrades.

Club Options

• Mark Canha (35)

The Brewers have an $11.5MM option on Canha that comes with a $2MM buyout. It’s a $9.5MM decision that figures to be borderline for a small-market Milwaukee club that has a penchant for taking the cautious route with regard to option decisions. It’s a reasonable sum in a vacuum, as Canha has performed well. He’s hitting .264/.360/.406 in 445 plate appearances, including a stellar .303/.394/.459 over 36 games since a deadline trade that sent from the Mets to the Brew Crew.

Even in his mid-30s, Canha is a good offensive player. He draws plenty of walks and has cut his strikeout rate to a career-low 16% this year. He doesn’t have prototypical power for a corner outfielder/first baseman, but he’s adept at getting on base. If Milwaukee decided not to commit the $9.5MM themselves, Canha could probably find something similar on the open market.

• Max Kepler (31)

Minnesota holds a $10MM option that comes with a $1MM buyout. This appeared to be trending toward a buyout a few months ago, as Kepler was hitting .195/.273/.398 through the end of May. Since the calendar flipped to June, he’s mashing at a .274/.341/.516 clip to flip the script. The left-handed hitter owns a .251/.321/.482 line with 22 homers altogether. Suddenly, the $9MM difference between his option and the buyout looks like excellent value, especially since he continues to play strong right field defense.

The Twins have a number of left-handed hitting outfielders. Even if they were interested in subtracting Kepler from that surplus, they could do so by exercising the option and trading him. That or simply keeping him around for another season now seem likelier than the buyout.

• Eddie Rosario (32)

Another borderline case, Atlanta holds a $9MM option without a buyout figure. One of the sport’s streakiest hitters, Rosario slumped to a career-worst .212/.259/.328 showing and underwent corrective vision surgery a season ago. He has rebounded in 2023, putting together a .267/.320/.479 clip with 21 longballs in 470 trips to the plate.

Rosario is striking out more than he did during his time with the Twins, though he’s also drawing a few more walks. He’s a power-over-hit left fielder who typically plays average defense. If the Braves are confident he’d replicate this year’s production, the $9MM price point is decent value.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop

With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.

As we continue around the diamond, we’ll finish up the infield at its most demanding position. It’s an exceptionally thin group, a marked contrast to the star-studded classes of the last two offseasons. There have been eight nine-figure deals for shortstops since 2021 (not including the contract for Marcus Semien, who stayed at second base despite shortstop interest). Not only will no one in this year’s group approach that range, there aren’t many candidates for a multi-year contract of any sort.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Potential Everyday Options

• Amed Rosario (28)

Rosario has been a shortstop for the bulk of his career, but the Dodgers have played him more frequently at second base since adding him at the deadline. One of the youngest players in the entire free agent class, Rosario hits the market coming off a down year. He was a roughly league average hitter from 2021-22 but has slumped to a .259/.300/.374 line over 520 plate appearances. He’s hitting for more power in Los Angeles than he had with the Guardians — largely because the Dodgers have more selectively deployed him in favorable platoon situations — but has reached base at just a .278 clip with L.A.

The righty-swinging Rosario has performed well against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He’s a well below-average offensive player versus righties. Some teams may prefer to keep him in more of a short side platoon role, but the middle infield class is weak enough that he figures to land an everyday job somewhere.

That may be better suited at second base. Rosario has gotten serviceable grades from public defensive marks in a minute sample of 162 innings at the keystone. His much-longer track record at shortstop isn’t as rosy. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have pegged him as a below-average defender throughout his nearly 7000 career innings at the position. The numbers are particularly poor this year, as he’s rated anywhere between 10 and 16 runs below par by those metrics. His raw error count is 10th-highest at the position.

• Gio Urshela (32)

It’s admittedly a stretch to consider Urshela a possible everyday player at shortstop. He’s soon to turn 32, has been a third baseman for the bulk of his career, and suffered a season-ending pelvis fracture in June. If he’s going to play regularly at any one spot next year, it’s likelier to be on the corner infield.

Urshela is one of the more well-rounded players among potential shortstop options, though. He has been an above-average hitter as recently as 2022, when he posted a .285/.338/.429 line for the Yankees. His power disappeared in his limited run with the Angels, but he hit .299 and got on base at a .329 clip in 62 games. He makes plenty of contact and typically hits for high enough averages to post solid on-base marks without drawing many walks. In a typical offseason, he probably wouldn’t be a viable shortstop target. Perhaps the scarcity of other options this winter makes that a more realistic possibility.

Utility Options

• Enrique Hernández (32)

Hernández got a shot as the Red Sox’ starting shortstop to begin the season. He’d never really had consistent run at the position before. The Sox gambled on Hernández’s plus defensive marks at other key positions translating, but the experiment didn’t work out. He’s tied for fourth with 14 errors at shortstop, and the three players with higher totals have nearly or more than double the innings. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average weren’t much kinder.

As a result, the Sox began to move Hernández back to his customary utility role — which has continued since a deadline trade to the Dodgers. He can still handle shortstop on occasion but seems better suited for second base or center field. He’s also amidst a second straight well below-average offensive season, hitting .236/.294/.353 over 469 plate appearances. Things have turned around since the trade. After posting a .222/.279/.320 line in Boston, he owns a .267/.329/.427 slash through 146 plate appearances in L.A. He’ll likely land another guaranteed deal but seems hard-pressed to match the $10MM salary he received from the Red Sox last September.

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa (29)

Kiner-Falefa has started just one game at shortstop for the Yankees this season, logging the rest of his at-bats over the three outfield positions and at the hot corner. He topped 1000 shortstop innings in both 2021 and ’22, though, drawing decent enough defensive grades that teams could consider moving him back there considering the shallowness of the class overall.

The righty-hitting Kiner-Falefa is a middling offensive player. He puts the ball in play without much impact and runs below-average walk totals. He’s a contact-hitting utility option who owns a .253/.312/.333 mark since landing in New York alongside Josh Donaldson shortly after the lockout.

• Joey Wendle (34)

Wendle has bounced around the infield throughout his career, seeing the bulk of his time between second and third base. The Marlins pushed him up the defensive spectrum as part of their effort to improve the offense out of the infield. Wendle has logged a career-high 708 1/3 innings at the position, a rare gambit for a player in his age-33 season. Defensive metrics have rated him as a fine option, ranging from slightly below-par (-2 runs per Statcast) to a bit above average (+5 DRS).

While he has acquitted himself well enough with the glove, Wendle hasn’t hit at all. He owns a .222/.257/.323 line with just two homers over 299 trips to the plate. He’s hitting just .243/.279/.343 in 204 games since being dealt from the Rays to the Marlins over the 2021-22 offseason.

Rebound Fliers

• Adalberto Mondesi (28)

It’s increasingly hard to envision Mondesi playing at all this season. He has encountered repeated setbacks since tearing the ACL in his left knee while playing for the Royals in April 2022. The former top prospect has shown elite speed and promising switch-hitting power potential at times, but injuries have kept him from topping 500+ MLB plate appearances in a season. He has only surpassed the 300-PA mark once. Even when healthy, Mondesi’s tantalizing physical tools have been undercut by an overaggressive approach that has led to a meager .280 career on-base percentage.

• Paul DeJong (30)

DeJong had started the season reasonably well for the Cardinals, at least showing some power that had disappeared during his 2020-22 struggles. As the year has gone on, his production has plummeted. DeJong owned a .233/.297/.412 line at the deadline, when he was flipped from St. Louis to Toronto. He’s hitting .133/.132/.189 with 34 strikeouts and no walks in 91 plate appearances since then. He was released by the Jays within a few weeks and hasn’t fared better since catching on with the Giants. DeJong is still a good defender, but he owns a .200/.273/.351 slash in nearly 1200 plate appearances over the last four years.

Glove-First Veteran Depth

• Nick Ahmed (34)

Ahmed was recently released by the Diamondbacks after a 10-year run in the desert. One of the sport’s best defenders at his peak, he secured two Gold Gloves and tallied double-digit home run totals in 2018-19. Ahmed has never been a good hitter, but he was sufficiently productive at the dish to serve as a fine bottom-of-the-lineup regular when paired with his elite glove. The offense has collapsed over the past three seasons, though, as he’s hitting .219/.272/.336 since the start of 2021. He lost most of last year to a shoulder injury that required surgery and posted a .212/.257/.303 slash before being let go this summer. Ahmed can still defend at a high level, but he’ll probably have to move into a utility role at this point of his career.

• Elvis Andrus (35)

Andrus has gotten into 101 games for the White Sox this season. He’s hitting .254/.312/.353 with five longballs across 363 plate appearances. That’s more in line with the numbers he posted from 2018-21, making last year’s 17-homer showing look like a blip. Andrus is still a good baserunner and can play either middle infield spot, but he’s better suited for a utility role than regular playing time at this stage of his career.

• Brandon Crawford (37)

Crawford is struggling through the worst season of his 13-year MLB career. The three-time All-Star owns a .199/.272/.316 slash with six homers over 299 trips to the plate. He is striking out at a personal-high 25.4% clip and has gone on the injured list three times — once each for a right calf, left knee and left arm issue. Public metrics are divided on how effective the four-time Gold Glove winner remains on the other side of the ball. Statcast still gives him a slightly positive grade, while Defensive Runs Saved pegs him as one of the worst shortstops in the league this year. Crawford had an unexpected resurgence two years ago to secure a fourth-place finish in NL MVP balloting at age 34. He hasn’t maintained that pace, hitting .218/.294/.333 going back to the start of 2022.

Minor League Depth

• Ehire Adrianza (34)

Adrianza has been out since May with elbow and shoulder injuries. The switch-hitting utility infielder has gotten into only five games for the Braves this year. Adrianza is a glove-only depth option who has appeared in parts of 11 big league campaigns.

• Johan Camargo (30)

Camargo played in eight games for the Giants, starting four at shortstop. He’s better suited for third or second base. A .219/.272/.344 hitter since the start of 2019, he has bounced around Triple-A for the bulk of 2023. Camargo hit .250/.335/.429 in the upper minors between three teams’ affiliates.

• Chris Owings (32)

Owings got into 11 games for the Pirates, including seven starts at shortstop. It’s his 11th straight season logging some amount of MLB action. He has spent the majority of the year in Triple-A, putting up a .235/.341/.442 line with 14 homers in 80 contests.

Player Options

• Javier Báez (31)

We don’t need to spend much time on this one. Báez has hit .229/.271/.356 in a little under 1100 plate appearances as a Tiger. He’s not opting out the final four years and $98MM remaining on his six-year free agent contract.

Club Options

• Tim Anderson (31)

This will be one of the more interesting option decisions of the winter. The White Sox can keep Anderson around for $14MM or buy him out at $1MM, leaving them with a $13MM call. Six months ago, that seemed a rubber stamp. While Anderson was coming off an injury-plagued second half, he’d hit .301 and secured his second straight All-Star selection a season ago.

Yet in a season full of underwhelming performances for the White Sox, the extent of Anderson’s drop-off is still surprising. The former batting champ owns a .240/.284/.294 line and has managed just one home run in 475 plate appearances. It’s well off the .288/.316/.442 career mark he carried into the year. Anderson just turned 30 in June, so it’s hard to see this as age-related decline. Yet he’s hitting ground-balls at an enormous 62.5% rate and striking out at a 23.4% clip that’s his highest since 2018. Paired with defensive marks ranging anywhere from mediocre (-1 runs per Statcast) to disastrous (-16 DRS), it has been a sub-replacement level showing.

New GM Chris Getz now has a surprisingly tough call to make. If the Sox part with Anderson, he’d probably jump to the top of this class. Still, a $13MM decision is a not insignificant sum to wager on a rebound from an unexpectedly poor season.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base