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Poll: Who Will Be The Cubs’ Fifth Starter?

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As Spring Training gets underway, teams routinely find themselves dealing with unfortunate surprise injuries that can force a change in plans. That may prove to have been the case for the Cubs when presumed fifth starter Javier Assad was diagnosed with an oblique issue at the outset of camp. Given that the strain Assad is reportedly suffering from is mild, he hasn’t been ruled out for Opening Day. With that being said, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma discussed the club’s rotation outlook yesterday and suggested that the Cubs may not push Assad to be ready for Opening Day.

If Assad were to open the season on the injured list, that would leave the door wide open for another player to take that final rotation spot, and even if he’s healthy Assad seems to be less firmly locked into the rotation than Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, or Matthew Boyd. Fortunately for the Cubs, they have the starting pitching depth necessary to cover for Assad if he’s injured and consider other options even in the event that he’s healthy. Though they’ll only need two starting pitchers for their two-game set against the Dodgers in Tokyo that predates the normal start of the regular season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cubs wanted to have a good idea of what their rotation was going to look like entering that first series of the year.

If he’s healthy, Assad remains easy to bet on for the job. After all, the right-hander delivered 29 solid starts for the Cubs in 2024, pitching to a 3.73 ERA in 147 innings of work. Those are fairly impressive numbers for a back-end starter, but it’s worth noting they also come with notable red flags: Assad wore down badly throughout the year after a hot start, with a 4.84 ERA from June onward and an ugly 6.86 ERA down the stretch in September last year. In addition to those deep struggles later in the season, the right-hander also posted lackluster peripherals with a 4.64 FIP, a strikeout rate of just 19.4%, and a hefty 9.9% walk rate. That’s one of the 10 worst seasons by K-BB% and one of the 15 worst seasons by FIP in all of baseball last year among pitchers with as many innings as Assad.

Should Assad’s combination of spring injuries and second-half struggles give the Cubs enough pause to turn to someone else on Opening Day, it’s possible that offseason addition Colin Rea could be the first to get the call. Rea, 34, signed with the Cubs last month on a one-year, $5MM pact. The righty had a brief stint with the Cubs during the shortened 2020 season, but spend the past two seasons in Milwaukee as a back-end starter for the Brewers. The right-hander posted a 4.40 ERA and 4.82 FIP in 58 appearances over the past two seasons, 42 of which were starts.

Rea posted a higher FIP (4.75) and a lower strikeout rate (18.9%) than even Assad did last year, but he made up for that gap in effectiveness with volume. Rea posted 167 2/3 innings of work for the Brewers last year between 27 starts and five relief appearances, and showed the ability to pitch deep into games as he did so with 19 starts lasting longer than five innings, 11 of which went at least six and five of which saw him pitch into the seventh inning. That ability to pitch into the seventh sets Rea apart from his competitors, as all of the other pitchers mentioned who started an MLB game in the majors last year combined for just two seven-inning starts in 2024. Rea is also notable as the only pitcher discussed here who is both already on the 40-man roster and cannot be optioned to the minor leagues, meaning he’s all but assured a spot in either the Opening Day rotation or bullpen so long as he’s healthy.

While Assad and Rea may be the frontrunners for the job, there are certainly other options worth considering. Chief among those may be right-hander Ben Brown, who stepped into a rotation role with the Cubs early last year and looked good doing so. Brown’s rookie campaign saw him post a 3.58 ERA and 3.11 FIP with an excellent 28.8% strikeout rate. Those are fantastic numbers for any pitcher, but it’s particularly impressive for a 24-year-old getting his feet wet in the majors for the first time.

Unfortunately, Brown’s debut season was limited to just 55 1/3 innings in total, as he was shut down in June due to what Sharma reports turned out to be an osteoma, which is a benign tumor made of bone growing on an existing piece of bone. Brown appears to be healthy and ready to go for the 2025 season and is likely the pitcher with the highest upside the Cubs could turn to for their final rotation job, but his lack of big league experience and long layoff could make the club hesitant to immediately plug him into the rotation.

Another legitimate contender for the role could be southpaw Jordan Wicks, the club’s first-rounder from the 2021 draft and a former top-100 prospect. Wicks has yet to find success at the big league level in 80 2/3 innings of work across 18 appearances (17 starts), with a 5.02 ERA and a nearly matching 5.05 FIP. Like Brown, Wicks also missed much of the 2024 season due to injuries which, in his case, consisted of forearm and oblique issues. That combination of big league struggles and injury history seem to suggest the 25-year-old might be best suited to start the season at Triple-A, but his peripheral numbers were quite strong last year before he got bit by the injury bug as demonstrated by his 25.9% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate in five starts before hitting the IL for the first time.

The aforementioned quartet aren’t the only plausible options, but they’re by far the most likely. Top prospect Cade Horton is a potential front-of-the-rotation arm who would be an exciting addition to the club’s staff, but he suffered a lost season in 2024 due to a subscapularis strain and is all but certain to get more reps in at Triple-A before making the jump to the majors. Non-roster invitees Brad Keller and Chris Flexen are veteran depth pieces who have served as viable back-end starters in recent years, but Keller appears to be getting work in as a reliever this spring while Flexen offers a similar profile to Rea but with lesser results and no guaranteed contract. Nate Pearson was discussed as a potential starting option over the offseason but has success in relief with the Cubs last year pitched just one inning of relief in his first spring appearance.

Who do MLBTR readers think the Cubs will turn to in order to round out the rotation? Will Assad return healthy and effective from his oblique issue to lock down the role? Will the club prioritize Rea due to volume and roster considerations, or go with a higher-upside pitcher like Brown or perhaps Wicks? Have your say in the poll below:

How Will Reds Divide Third Base Playing Time?

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The infield was a big reason for the Reds’ disappointing 2024 season. Regarded as the club’s strength entering Spring Training, it thinned quickly when Matt McLain suffered a shoulder injury and Noelvi Marte was hit with a PED suspension. By the end of camp, the Reds needed to trade for utilityman Santiago Espinal to backfill depth.

Cincinnati infielders hit .243/.313/.409 last season, which ranked 20th in park-adjusted offense. That’s despite a superstar performance at shortstop from Elly De La Cruz. Their .236/.303/.384 slash from the other three infield spots placed fifth from the bottom by measure of wRC+. Only the White Sox, Pirates, Rockies and Angels got less out of those positions.

McLain is back and will be the everyday second baseman, which Cincinnati ensured with the Jonathan India/Brady Singer swap at the beginning of the offseason. De La Cruz is obviously locked in at shortstop. The corner infield is much more up in the air. Signing Austin Hays theoretically allows new manager Terry Francona to bring Spencer Steer back onto the dirt as his primary first baseman. That decision may depend on who’s playing the hot corner, which is arguably the key question for the Reds to sort out this spring.

Jeimer Candelario was the unquestioned starter this time a year ago. Cincinnati inked the switch-hitter to a three-year, $45MM free agent deal. He was coming off a .251/.336/.471 showing between the Nationals and Cubs. That marked Candelario’s third strong season within the last four years. The Reds expected that to continue. Instead, he hit .225/.279/.429 during his first season in Cincinnati. While he connected on 20 homers, he had a career-worst walk rate (5.8%) and on-base percentage. Candelario also graded poorly defensively, leading to a sub-replacement level performance.

Candelario’s roster spot isn’t in jeopardy. His performance was probably impacted by a knee issue through which he played for a good chunk of last season. The Reds wouldn’t have cut bait after one season of a three-year deal even if he’d simply underperformed while at full health. That said, they’re less likely to stick with him as a regular third baseman if he doesn’t turn things around quickly.

That presumably played a role in the Gavin Lux trade. Cincinnati acquired the former top prospect from the Dodgers for outfield prospect Mike Sirota and the 41st pick in the upcoming draft. After missing all of 2023 to an ACL tear, Lux had a league average .251/.320/.383 slash with 10 homers in 487 plate appearances last season. The in-season splits were dramatic. Lux had a terrible first half, caught fire coming out of the All-Star Break, then didn’t hit during L.A.’s World Series run. The second half numbers might hint at a greater offensive ceiling, but he’s nearly 1500 plate appearances into his career and has been an average hitter (.252/.326/.383).

Average offensive production would be an upgrade over what Candelario provided last season. The bigger question is whether Lux can handle third base. He moved off shortstop because of throwing accuracy concerns. Lux didn’t start a game anywhere other than second base last year. He has six career innings as a third baseman from one game in 2021 (in which he made two throwing errors). He hasn’t started a regular season game on the left side of the infield in four years.

Mark Sheldon of MLB.com wrote last week that the Reds intend to move Lux around the infield during Spring Training. He could eventually see time in the outfield as well, though Francona indicated they’d have him solely on the infield at the beginning of camp. Lux and Francona each expressed confidence in his ability to make all the necessary throws, though that’s obviously something he’ll need to continue to prove in games.

Lux has minor league options remaining, but the Reds wouldn’t have given up two decent assets and taken on a $3.325MM arbitration salary if they didn’t expect him playing a key role. He’ll be on the MLB roster. If that’s not as the regular third baseman, he’d bounce around in a utility capacity and potentially work as a designated hitter. Cincinnati’s bench is otherwise heavily right-handed, so Lux’s lefty bat could provide balance.

Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have less established MLB roster spots. They were each highly-touted prospects, Marte in particular, whose stocks tanked in 2024. Marte was banned for the season’s first 80 games after testing positive for Boldenone. He had a terrible second half upon his reinstatement. He hit .210/.248/.301 with a 31% strikeout rate and a meager 3.7% walk percentage over 242 plate appearances. He’ll need to dramatically hone in his plate discipline to tap into the power that made him a top prospect. At 23 years old, he’s far from finished, but it’s tough to see him winning an MLB job out of camp.

Encarnacion-Strand had an impressive half-season in 2023. He hit 13 homers with a .270/.328/.477 slash as a rookie. That earned him the Opening Day first base job last year. His season never really got off the ground. Encarnacion-Strand hit .190 with a .220 OBP over 29 games. A fracture in his right hand sent him to the injured list in early May. He attempted to rehab but required season-ending surgery six weeks later. It’s easy to write last year off as an injury-related anomaly, but he’s an unlikely long-term answer at third base. Prospect evaluators have panned his defense, with most projecting him as a first baseman. Even if he gets back on track offensively, he’s likely to see most of his action at first or DH.

The Reds have a few other third base options — none of whom are likely to push for the job early in the season. Espinal is back as a glove-first infielder. His .247/.300/.348 slash over the past two years points to a utility role. Cincinnati selected Cooper Bowman from the A’s in the Rule 5 draft. He has been a second baseman for most of his career and has 53 professional innings at the hot corner. Even if he sticks on the MLB roster, it’d be in a developmental capacity. Steer and Rece Hinds each played third in the minors but moved off the position for defensive reasons. Prospect Tyler Callihan is on the 40-man roster but has only four career Triple-A games.

How will the Reds divvy up playing time at the hot corner this season?

 

Poll: Giants Backup Catcher

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Entering Spring Training, there was some belief that veteran catcher Tom Murphy’s job backing up Patrick Bailey in San Francisco wasn’t entirely assured even in of the $4.25MM guaranteed remaining on his contract with the Giants. The door has opened for other alternatives even more since then, as the club announced yesterday that Murphy will miss multiple weeks with a herniated disc in his mid-back.

While Murphy is still tentatively expected to be available at some point in the first half, his availability for the start of the season is in serious doubt. With the club’s incumbent likely to miss at least the start of the season due to injury, the Giants have little choice but to seriously consider the number of alternative options currently in camp with them. The club has four catchers in camp aside from Bailey and Murphy as things stand: Sam Huff, Max Stassi, Logan Porter, and Adrian Sugastey. Sugastey is just 22 years old and slashed a meager .210/.241/.304 at Double-A last season, leaving him extremely unlikely to be called up to the majors until he’s had more time to develop. Huff, Stassi, and Porter all appear to be legitimate contenders for the job, however.

To the extent that there’s a favorite for the job, it seems that status would fall to Huff now that Murphy is out of commission. Unlike the other options in camp with the club, Huff is already on the 40-man roster after being plucked off waivers from the Rangers shortly after the new year. A former consensus top-100 prospect, Huff was a seventh-round pick by the Rangers in 2016 who blossomed into an intriguing bat-first catcher during his time in the minor leagues. Above-average offense isn’t necessarily a must from a club’s backup catcher, but given Bailey’s light-hitting, defense-first profile it’s easy to see why the Giants might be attracted to Huff as a potential complement.

A career .263/.334/.480 hitter across all levels of the minors, Huff has 78 games in the big leagues under his belt across four seasons with Texas. Unfortunately, that big league playing time has been something of a mixed bag. While he’s posted a solid 112 wRC+ in 214 career MLB plate appearances, he’s struck out at a massive 33.6% clip and largely been buoyed by a .353 BABIP that seems unlikely to be sustainable. Huff has generally been regarded as a below-average defender behind the plate as well despite a strong throwing arm and decent framing ability. That lack of defensive excellence puts more pressure on Huff’s bat, and it can be difficult for a high-strikeout profile like Huff’s to offer consistent production in a bench role.

Those potential question marks surrounding Huff could open the door for Stassi to take the job. The most experienced catcher in the backup mix for the Giants (even including Murphy), the soon to be 34-year-old has participated in parts of 10 MLB seasons, including a three-year run of regular at-bats with the Angels from 2020 to 2022. While the 2020 and ’21 seasons saw Stassi briefly break out offensively with a solid 113 wRC+, Stassi is mostly a glove-first catcher; he hit just .180/.267/.303 across 102 games in 2022 and has a career wRC+ of just 83. With +20 framing runs since the start of the 2018 season according to Statcast, however, Stassi makes up for his lack of offense with excellent defense that could pair with Bailey to give the Giants the best defensive tandem behind the plate in the sport.

Stassi comes with his own flaws, however. Most notably, he hasn’t played in the big leagues since 2022 due to a combination of family considerations and injuries. At nearly 34 years old, Stassi has reached the age where many catchers start to struggle to stay effective due to the toll the position takes on the body, and that concern is exacerbated for Stassi in particular due to both his checkered recent history and the fact that he regressed both offensively and defensively during the 2022 campaign.

Of course, that regression may have also had something to do with his career-high workload that year, an issue that would not come up in 2025 should he serve as Bailey’s backup. On the other hand, Stassi offers little upside, with even a solid rebound from his 2022 season likely ending with him being a below-average hitter. Huff offers significantly more upside, both due to the potential of his bat and because he has less than two years of MLB service time under his belt at this point, allowing him to be controlled through the end of the 2029 season.

Porter, meanwhile, stands as less likely to earn the job than either Huff or Stassi but also represents something of a middle ground between the two. The 29-year-old is the least experienced of the trio at the big league level, having appeared in just 11 games with the Royals back in 2023. With that being said, he has a reputation as a strong defender and pairs that with a bat that showed some life at Triple-A last year, where he slashed a combined .267/.370/.453 (114 wRC+) in 73 across the Royals, Mets, and Giants organizations. Given his lack of big league experience, Porter could be controlled long-term and even optioned to the minor leagues if added to the 40-man roster, while Huff is out of options and Stassi has enough service time to decline an optional assignment.

Assuming Murphy begins the season on the injured list, which catcher should the Giants pair with Bailey? Is Huff’s former top prospect status and offensive upside worth the lackluster defense and potential contact issues? Should the club gamble on Stassi’s track record of MLB success despite his long layoff from big league games and worrying signals in his 2022 campaign? Or should the club take a chance on Porter despite his minimal big league experience? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Will The Astros Add Another Bat?

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Over the weekend, it was reported that the Astros circled back to Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado in trade talks after longtime third baseman Alex Bregman officially departed the club to sign with the Red Sox. Those renewed conversations surrounding Arenado don’t appear likely to result in a deal as things stand, but they do demonstrate a clear desire on the part of Astros brass to improve upon an offense that lost both Bregman and star outfielder Kyle Tucker this winter.

It’s not hard to see why Houston would like to upgrade their lineup. Among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances for the club last year, Tucker led the way with a sensational 181 wRC+ while Bregman ranked fourth with a figure of 118. As important as both players were, it’s fair to point out the club has a number of successful hitters still in the fold: Yordan Alvarez (168 wRC+) and Jose Altuve (127 wRC+) put up excellent numbers last year, and the catcher position remains strong with Yainer Diaz (117 wRC+) and Victor Caratini (113 wRC+).

Still, the combination of Alvarez, Altuve, Diaz, and Caratini cover just three spots in the lineup. The quartet do not figure to be in the same lineup very often this year, particularly now that Altuve is slated to play left field on at least a semi-frequent basis in order to keep Alvarez at DH, thereby stopping manager Joe Espada from penciling Diaz or Caratini in at DH on days when the other catching. Offseason additions of Isaac Paredes (117 wRC+) and Christian Walker (119 wRC+) should help to keep things afloat, with Paredes in particular projecting to serve as a near perfect replacement for Bregman with the bat despite his shortcomings on defense.

The Astros have a solid offensive nucleus, but their lineup figures to include several below-average hitters this year and sorely miss the offensive contributions Tucker has offered throughout his career. Without Tucker, the club’s entire projected outfield mix is questionable. Center fielder Jake Meyers is a career .228/.292/.371 (87 wRC+) hitter whose 2024 numbers were right in line with that production. Ben Gamel posted a 115 wRC+ last year, but that came in just 99 plate appearances and was his first above average offensive season since 2018. Chas McCormick has shown some solid potential with the bat in the past, but he’s coming off a career-worst campaign where he hit just .211/.271/.306 (66 wRC+). He’s also struggled to produce against right-handed pitching even in his more successful seasons.

The introduction of Altuve to the club’s left field mix should help to add some pop to the outfield, but the leading candidates to take over for him at second base are Mauricio Dubon and Brendan Rodgers. Both have six seasons in the majors, and neither has posted an above-average offensive season. What’s more, the departure of Tucker and Jon Singleton’s move to the bench leaves Alvarez as the club’s only lefty swinging regular, unless the club turns to Gamel for everyday reps. It seems clear that the Astros would benefit from adding another hitter to the mix — ideally a lefty.

The problem, however, is that very few options remain available in free agency, and even fewer of them are left-handed. Alex Verdugo has plenty of experience in left field and is perhaps the best left-handed bat still available, but he’s coming off a career-worst season. David Peralta is coming off a solid season in a part-time role with the Padres last year but is headed into his age-37 campaign. In terms of potential infielders, part-time players like Jose Iglesias and Whit Merrifield are not only right-handed, but also provide little over internal options like Dubon and Rodgers.

Perhaps there’s a trade to be worked out, even as swinging a deal for Arenado remains unlikely. The Twins have been rumored to be getting calls on utility man Willi Castro this winter, and a switch-hitter capable of playing both the infield and outfield seems like an ideal fit. Meanwhile, Tigers infielder Zach McKinstry and Mets infielder Brett Baty are two lefty bats currently on the bubble of their club’s 26-man roster.

In the case of a Castro trade or even a signing like Verdugo, money might also be a complicating factor. Reports have generally described the Astros’ budget as close to maxed out, with high-dollar moves like signing Bregman or trading for Arenado likely to require a greenlight from ownership. While it’s unclear exactly how much wiggle room Houston’s front office has, it appeared telling that GM Dana Brown indicated earlier this month that he sees an external addition of note as unlikely. With limited options still available and a seemingly limited budget to work with, perhaps the Astros will simply enter the season with their current roster unless a veteran opting out of a minor league deal or a player placed on the waiver wire in the run-up to Opening Day creates an opportunity.

Do MLBTR readers think the Astros will address their offense further before the season begins, or enter the 2025 season with what they have? Have your say in the poll below!

Poll: Will The Red Sox Extend Garrett Crochet This Spring?

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The Red Sox had their biggest offseason in years this winter, and after a failed pursuit of Juan Soto kicked things off in earnest by pulling off a massive trade with the White Sox where they sent multiple top prospects to Chicago in exchange for the club’s top left-handed pitcher. That Garrett Crochet deal naturally brought to mind the Chris Sale swap from nearly a decade ago, but one major difference between the two deals is the amount of team control remaining: Sale was locked up for three seasons when the Red Sox acquired him, while Crochet only has two years of team control remaining.

That shorter team control window could pose a problem for the Red Sox, given that their deep cache of impact, upper-level prospect talent is only just beginning to reach the major leagues. If Crochet doesn’t stay in Boston beyond the 2026 season, he may only overlap with top hitters like Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer for a year or so before the club will once again have a vacancy at the top of their rotation. Fortunately for fans in Boston, there seems to be mutual interest in an extension. Crochet spoke about the state of extension talks with the club last month and emphasized how appealing the idea of remaining in Boston long-term was to him just days after the club reportedly approached his camp about the possibility of an extension.

Of course, mutual interest in an extension won’t always lead to a deal and it’s also possible that Crochet’s feelings have shifted. He was asked about the extension possibility again last week, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive, and seemed a bit more open to taking his time: “I think that the long-term security is definitely something attractive. As players, we like to look out for our family first. But with last year being my first taste of starting, part of me also wants to see what I could do with the full season of innings workload. [I] was on a short leash. Part of me wants to see what I could do in a full season before, I suppose, locking myself into a certain bracket of player.”

Crochet and the club will still need to line up on what appropriate value for a deal would be, and that could be quite difficult given Crochet’s extremely unusual career path to this point. Drafted 11th overall by the White Sox in the 2020 draft despite the fact that he had spent most of his time in the SEC pitching out of the bullpen, Crochet was brought straight to the major leagues as a reliever and pitched to a phenomenal 2.54 ERA in 60 1/3 innings of work for Chicago from 2020 to 2021. At the time, the club appeared to be eyeing a rotation role for Crochet in 2022, but he underwent Tommy John surgery that April and did not pitch again in the majors until late in the 2023 season.

By that point, the White Sox had already begun rebuilding. That gave them little reason not to explore using Crochet out of the rotation, and so he stretched out over the winter and was tapped as the club’s Opening Day starter for his first career MLB start last year. The lefty was nothing short of brilliant in 32 starts last year, but nearly tripled his career-high workload with 146 innings of work. The White Sox carefully managed his innings throughout the season in an effort to keep him healthy, and he threw just 44 2/3 innings total over his final 14 starts, less than 3 1/3 innings per start. That lack of volume could raise some questions about Crochet’s ability to stay healthy while handling a traditional starter’s workload, particularly given that his ERA in the first half of the season was just 3.00 while that figured ballooned to 4.84 in the second half.

Those potential workload concerns could tamp down Boston’s willingness to offer Crochet a premium guarantee, even as his underlying numbers suggest a ceiling commensurate with the game’s very best starting pitchers. Crochet’s 2.69 FIP would’ve trailed only Cy Young award winners Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal if he had enough innings to qualify, and his eye-popping 35.1% strikeout rate led all starters who pitched even 20 innings last year. It’s also worth noting that Crochet won’t celebrate his 26th birthday until nearly halfway through the 2025 season, and that youth could help to ease some of Boston’s concerns about his longer-term outlook in terms of health and durability.

With so many competing factors to consider, it’s fair to argue that Crochet is one of the most difficult players to pin down in terms of value. Prior to last summer’s trade deadline, reporting indicated that Crochet may view Tyler Glasnow’s $136.5MM guarantee with the Dodgers as a target for extension talks although, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed in a post for Front Office subscribers back in August, Glasnow had six years of service time at the time of his deal with L.A. which could make it difficult for Crochet to reach those same heights. If that’s still Crochet’s asking price, it’s possible the Red Sox might prefer to play his first season under club control out and revisit negotiations later this year or next offseason. With that being said, a big season from Crochet would surely push his asking price up substantially. That figures to be especially true if he manages to stay healthy and qualify for the ERA title this year.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out between Crochet and the Red Sox? Will they come together on an extension before Opening Day? Or will the Red Sox wait to see how Crochet performs with the club during his first season in Boston before making a decision? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Do The Mets Need Another Starter?

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The Mets undeniably made the single biggest splash of the entire winter when they brought superstar slugger Juan Soto into the fold on a record-shattering $765MM deal back in December. Along with the club’s reunion with Pete Alonso and some complementary additions like Jesse Winker and Jose Siri, the Mets’ offense appears to be in a very strong place as they look to build off their NLCS appearance last year.

The same cannot be said for the rotation. Despite rumors that connected the Mets to top starters on the trade market like Garrett Crochet and Dylan Cease (as well as plenty of early speculation about the Mets as potential suitors for Corbin Burnes and Max Fried), the club took a far more measured approach to its starting staff. With Kodai Senga and David Peterson already in the fold, the club reunited with southpaw Sean Manaea in free agency while bringing in Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, and Griffin Canning to replace Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, and Joey Lucchesi on the depth chart.

It’s an interesting group of names, and it’s not hard to see the potential upside in those moves. Holmes becomes the latest well-regarded reliever to try his hand at starting, and success stories like Crochet, Seth Lugo, and Reynaldo Lopez offer a tantalizing glimpse at what Holmes could provide the Mets with should the move work out. Meanwhile, Montas was a well-regarded No. 2 starter as recently as three years ago, and Canning is just one year removed from being a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for the Angels.

Still, there’s plenty of very real risk involved with each of the club’s additions. Holmes could instead follow in the footsteps of less-successful rotation converts like Jordan Hicks or even A.J. Puk. Montas has struggled to stay healthy in recent years and struggled to remain effective even when he is on the mound, and Canning was arguably the single worst qualified starter in baseball last year. Even Manaea is coming off a career year that he may not be able to repeat in his age-33 season this year.

The question marks in the rotation came to a head earlier this week when it was revealed that Montas is currently suffering from a lat strain that was expected to shut him down for six to eight weeks. The veteran righty has since suggested that he’s set for just four to six weeks of no-throw, but that still suggests he may not have even begun throwing when Opening Day rolls around, at which point he’ll still need to make up for the lost preparation time caused by him missing a full spring training. It’s not at all unreasonable to suggest that the Mets will be without Montas until sometime in May. If they still intend to use a six-man rotation, that would likely mean that Senga, Manaea, Peterson, and Holmes will be joined by Canning and Paul Blackburn.

Naturally, questions have arisen about whether the club should make another addition. (MLBTR’s Steve Adams argued that the Mets hadn’t done enough with the rotation even before news of Montas’ injury.) A number of veteran starters are still available in free agency, including four who made MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list at the outset of the offseason. A recent MLBTR Poll suggested that fans views Quintana as the best of those remaining arms, though the Mets have not been involved in his market despite interest in a reunion from the veteran southpaw’s side.

Even if the Mets aren’t enamored with the possibility of a Quintana reunion, both Andrew Heaney and Spencer Turnbull are still available and could be used either in the rotation or out of the bullpen depending on the club’s needs, affording the Mets flexibility when Montas returns. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn are among the other veteran arms still available in free agency.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting that the club’s rotation already runs six names deep even without Montas. Neither Canning nor Blackburn can be optioned — both have five-plus years of service — but righties Tylor Megill and Justin Hagenman are both on the 40-man roster and likely ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season. Top prospect Brandon Sproat will likely make his debut at some point in 2025 as well.

If the Mets don’t add anyone right now, they could look for rotation help closer to the trade deadline if it proves necessary. That would allow them to find out more about their offseason rolls of the dice on guys like Montas and Canning before deciding if they need another arm. There will also likely be a larger supply of arms available in July, as the number of sellers will increase relative to spring training, where optimism abounds throughout the league. Perhaps the risk of having to surrender an exciting young piece from their farm system to add an arm this summer makes adding depth now for nothing but money a more attractive option. Each side has its pros and cons.

Where do MLBTR readers stand on the issue? Are the Mets too light on talent in the rotation to compete with the Braves and Phillies for the NL East crown this year without another arm? Or should they stick with their internal options to open the season and reassess their starting depth at the trade deadline this summer? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: The Dodgers’ Rotation

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The Dodgers have long been expected to utilize a six-man rotation this year in order to accommodate Shohei Ohtani, and have accordingly assembled a deep group of arms. Last week, however, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman revealed that, with Ohtani not expected to debut as a pitcher until sometime in May, the Dodgers intend to open the season with a five-man rotation. Four of those spots will go to Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki. That fifth spot appears to be up for grabs, with the two leading candidates being a pair of arms that missed the 2024 season entirely due to injury: right-handers Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.

The duo have been on very similar tracks for much of their respective careers. Drafted in the third and ninth rounds of the 2016 draft respectively, May and Gonsolin were both top-100 prospects for the Dodgers who made their big league debuts in 2019 and looked good in their brief cups of coffee. May posted a 3.63 ERA in 34 2/3 innings, while Gonsolin posted a 2.93 ERA in 40 innings. Both took on larger roles in 2020 and finished top-five in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year.

It was at the outset of the 2021 season where the pair’s careers begin to diverge. May has routinely been brilliant when healthy, but “when healthy” is a key caveat. May has started just 20 games and thrown 101 innings total over the past four seasons. That’s mostly been due to multiple elbow surgeries, and just when his arm looked to be healthy last summer, he suffered an esophageal tear that required surgery and sidelined him for 2024.

Gonsolin has been healthy long enough to build up a more sustained track record, but that playing time has come with ups and downs. In 2021, the righty posted a strong 3.23 ERA but a 4.54 FIP due in no small part to a bloated 14.2% walk rate. Gonsolin was sensational in 2022, logging a 2.14 ERA in 24 starts (130 1/3 innings) as he cut his walk rate by more than half and struck out a solid 23.9% of opponents faced. The success was short-lived. Gonsolin struggled badly across 20 starts in 2023 before undergoing his own Tommy John surgery, which wiped out his entire 2024 season.

May brings excellent rate stats to the table, with a 3.21 ERA (132 ERA+), a 3.59 FIP, and a 24.1% strikeout rate over that aforementioned stretch of 2020 starts between surgeries. He’s also just 27 years old. Between that youth and his limited on-field reps to this point in his career, it’s not outlandish to suggest that May could have a higher ceiling than even his strong career numbers suggest. Gonsolin has more experience pitching in big league games. The 31-year-old’s phenomenal 2022 season is also by far the best work either player has put forward in a given season. May has five-plus seasons of MLB service and can’t be optioned without his consent. Gonsolin will reach that same threshold 20 days into the season but for now has one minor league option left.

There are other candidates for the fifth spot, but none come close to matching the experience of May and Gonsolin. Bobby Miller is a former top prospect who delivered a strong 2023 season, but he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. Landon Knack, Ben Casparius, and Justin Wrobleski are all healthy and available as depth starters after each debuted in 2024. Of the three, only Knack has substantial big league playing time under his belt. The 27-year-old’s 3.65 ERA in 69 innings last year could make him the next man up behind May and Gonsolin, but he still appears to be further down the depth chart than the two returning righties.

It’s worth reminding that franchise legend Clayton Kershaw is slated to start the season on the 60-day IL. Younger arms like Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are all recovering from Tommy John surgery performed during the 2024 season. Gavin Stone had shoulder surgery in October and isn’t likely to pitch this year. Fellow righty Nick Frasso is a well-regarded arm but isn’t likely to be in the Opening Day rotation mix after missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery performed last offseason. That length list of arms is a testament to the organization’s depth and also a good reminder that whoever opens the season as the No. 5 starter is hardly a lock to hold a rotation spot all season. The Dodgers will probably cycle through 12-plus starters this season.

Be that as it may, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding the Opening Day staff. Assuming everyone remains healthy, how do MLBTR readers think the Dodgers’ fifth starter battle will play out? Will the club go for May’s upside and relative youth? Will they instead turn to Gonsolin’s more substantial MLB track record in hopes he can replicate his All-Star 2022 campaign? Will one of the less-experienced arms break out and claim the role? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Who Will Be The Cardinals’ Starting Catcher?

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The Cardinals attempted to kick off a youth movement this winter, letting veteran players like Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge depart in free agency while attempting to trade other veteran pieces under longer-term team control. Unfortunately for St. Louis, none of those trades came to pass: Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray both declined to waive their no-trade clauses, while Nolan Arenado expressed a willingness to waive his for certain clubs but no deal ultimately came together.

That’s left the club looking very similar to last year, but even with a largely identical roster there remain some areas where the club can stick to its initial plans. Contreras has been a catcher for his entire career, but entered 2025 working out at first base ahead of what’s expected to be a full-time move away from his duties behind the plate this year. With Contreras replacing Goldschmidt at first, that opens up the catcher position for a young player to step in and claim the starting catcher job as their own. The Cardinals have two candidates for that role: Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages.

Herrera, 24, has already spent parts of three seasons in the majors after several years as a well-regarded catching prospect. His cups of coffee in the majors during the 2022 and ’23 seasons were limited to just 24 games and 66 plate appearances, but he got a more robust look at the big league level this past year and made the most of the opportunity. In 259 trips to the plate across 72 games last year, Herrera hit a strong .301/.372/.428 (127 wRC+). He showed decent pop and speed with five homers and five stolen bases in roughly a third of a full season’s slate of at-bats and complemented that with a solid understanding of the strike zone, as shown through his 20.5% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate.

A massive .370 BABIP is unlikely to be repeated over a full season, but his solid 8.9% barrel rate and the aforementioned plate discipline numbers suggest Herrera has the bat to be a solid hitter in the majors, and perhaps even well above average for the catcher position. Herrera has been an average to below average defender behind the plate to this point in his MLB career, however, with a lackluster arm that he pairs with average framing and blocking numbers. For a Cardinals club that struggled to make the adjustment from defensive stalwart Yadier Molina to bat-first slugger Contreras behind the plate, it would hardly be a surprise if the club preferred a more robust defender.

Enter Pages. The 26-year-old made his MLB debut with the Cardinals last year and got nearly the same amount of playing time as Herrera did with 68 games and 218 plate appearances. While he was similarly below average to Herrera when it came to throwing out runners in 2024, his pop time to second base was in the 75th percentile of catchers last year according to Statcast, while Herrera’s was in just the 27th percentile. That suggests more room to grow when it comes to controlling the running game, and Pages also rates out as a better pitch framer than Herrera with identical blocking numbers.

Those stronger defensive numbers could make Pages an attractive option as a regular behind the plate to a Cardinals organization that has long appreciated the value of a strong glove, but his offensive numbers could hold him back. Pages pales in comparison to Herrera as a hitter, with a slash line of just .238/.281/.376 (83 wRC+) last season. While Pages showed impressive power with seven homers in just 218 trips to the plate, he also struck out at an elevated 26.6% clip while walking only 6% of the time. That home run total also might be misleading about his overall offensive skill set, as well. Even as Pages managed to send more balls over the fence than Herrera did in fewer plate appearances, his 4.8% barrel rate was dwarfed by Herrera’s aforementioned 8.9% barrel rate, indicating that it was actually Herrera who made the strongest contact more consistently last year.

Of course, it’s also possible that the Cardinals could choose not to commit to either youngster as a true starter behind the plate, instead operating on a timeshare that’s closer to 50-50. Stepping out of the traditional starter-and-backup setup behind the plate could afford both players the opportunity to assert themselves as regulars, allowing performance to more naturally dictate playing time over the course of the season and beyond. That might come at the expense of comfort for the club’s pitchers if who is behind the plate is frequently changing on a day-to-day basis, but one possible solution to that would be to have each catcher work with a certain group of starting pitchers in order to ease their defensive burden from a planning and game-calling perspective while also affording those starters some level of consistency regarding who their battery mate is.

How do MLBTR readers think the Cardinals will approach the catcher position this year? Will they prioritize Herrera’s higher ceiling and better bat, Pages’s stronger defensive reputation, or settle for a timeshare involving both youngsters? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: What Position Will Alex Bregman Play In Boston?

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Over the weekend, the Red Sox formally introduced Alex Bregman as their latest star infield signing after signing him to a three-year deal last week. One notable wrinkle that emerged from Bregman’s introduction is where exactly his future on the infield dirt lies. While previous indications were that Bregman would play second base for the Red Sox if added to the roster, manager Alex Cora made clear that the club has not made a decision on how exactly its infield alignment will shake out when Opening Day arrives next month.

The uncertainty around Bregman’s future position stems primarily from the desire of incumbent third base star Rafael Devers to continue playing the field for the foreseeable future. Devers, still just 28, moving to DH this early into his career would be unusual for even a defensively-limited star player. Miguel Cabrera was still the Tigers’ starting third baseman during his age-30 season back in 2013. Aside from Devers’ personal desire to continue playing third, a move to DH for Devers would seemingly leave little room for Masataka Yoshida in the club’s plans, restricting him either to mostly bench duties, forcing him into the outfield on a regular basis, or pushing him off the roster entirely. From an offensive perspective, Yoshida is likely to be far more valuable to pencil into the lineup card than the relatively uninspiring second base options like Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton that the Red Sox used last year.

With that being said, Bregman is the reigning AL Gold Glove award winner at the hot corner and has just 32 innings of experience at the keystone to this point in his career. Hardware isn’t always the best metric to evaluate a player’s defense by, but the difference between Bregman and Devers is stark when looking at advanced metrics: Bregman sat in the 91st percentile among fielders for his work at third base last year in terms of Outs Above Average, while Devers was in the 8th percentile. Bregman made clear throughout his free agency that he was ready and willing to play second base if it was asked of him, and Red Sox brass have indicated confidence in his ability to play the position. Even so, it’s impossible to deny that the best version of the Red Sox defensively would surely involve Bregman at third base, Devers at DH, and a steady glove like Hamilton (who posted a +3 OAA at the keystone last year) at second.

It can be argued, then, that the decision boils down to a question of offense versus defense. Playing Bregman at second base allows the club to keep Yoshida in the lineup to open the season more easily, though that will cost the club by forcing an less than ideal defensive alignment. Meanwhile, inserting Hamilton and his 92 wRC+ from last season as the Opening Day second baseman and shifting Yoshida to the bench would leave the club with an undeniably weaker offense but would give the club a quality defensive unit with Bregman and Hamilton flanking Trevor Story on the infield dirt. Using this logic, a Boston club that ranked 11th in the majors with a 104 wRC+ last year even before bringing in Bregman but ranked sixth from the bottom in both OAA and Fangraphs’ defense metric might be better off prioritizing run prevention over run creation.

Other factors are at play as well, however. It’s hard to say from an external perspective exactly how the relationship between Devers and the Red Sox would be impacted by the club supplanting him at third base, but all indications are that the club’s incumbent star is adamant about his desire to remain at the hot corner. It’s also fair to note that Yoshida is expected to be available to play the outfield more frequently this year after he underwent shoulder surgery back in October. Once his shoulder has recovered enough for him to play on the grass, the club could theoretically start Jarren Duran in center field and Yoshida in left before benching Yoshida late in games to shift Duran to left field and put glove-first utility man Ceddanne Rafaela in center field for a stronger defensive outfield when the club holds a lead.

Perhaps the biggest variable in this situation, however, is Kristian Campbell. MLB.com’s #7 prospect in the sport had a clear pathway to everyday playing time as soon as Opening Day before Bregman was signed, but reporting since the Bregman deal has indicated that the Red Sox still want to give Campbell the opportunity to earn a spot on the everyday roster. Campbell has primarily played second base to this point in the minors and his presence on the club’s roster, in the event that he makes the team, could spur the Red Sox to pull the trigger on moving Devers to DH.

With that said, Campbell is a versatile defender who has outfield experience as well, making it at least plausible that the club could plug him into the lineup in left field with Duran in center and Rafaela either on the bench or at Triple-A should they wish to play Bregman at second and Devers at third. That would only be a temporary solution, however, as top prospect Roman Anthony is also knocking on the door of the majors and seems likely to be debut at some point in the first half. Anthony is a well-regarded defensive outfielder and figures to take over regular reps at one of the club’s outfield spots upon his debut, which would seemingly push Campbell back to the infield unless the club was willing to bench Wilyer Abreu in right field.

With so many complicated factors at play for the Red Sox this spring, where do MLBTR readers land on the issue? Should the club prioritize its defense and move Devers to DH, opening up the hot corner for Bregman and making it easier to fit their prospects into the lineup? Or would they be better off putting Bregman at second base, avoiding the risk of discontent from Devers and allowing Yoshida to remain a fixture of the club’s lineup more easily? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Cardinals Trade A Starter?

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The Cardinals’ offseason has been defined by their attempts to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado. The club allowed key players like Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge to head into free agency this winter and did nothing to replace them as they focused on cutting payroll and starting a youth movement at the major league level. The club seemingly wanted to pair that with trades of some of its most expensive veteran players, but Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras both quickly made it clear that they weren’t interested in waiving their no-trade clauses.

That left Arenado as the most prominent trade candidate on the roster, but the third baseman vetoed a trade to the Astros at the eleventh hour back in December and his market began to dry up rapidly after that. The final nail in the coffin appeared to be the Red Sox, Arenado’s last serious known suitor, signing Alex Bregman to round out their infield mix. Now, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitting it’s likely Arenado remains in St. Louis to start the season, the Cardinals are poised to enter 2025 with the most notable change as compared to last year’s team being a lack of Goldschmidt at first base.

There’s one way the Cardinals could inject some more youth into the roster and create space in the payroll: trading from the rotation. Both Gray and veteran righty Miles Mikolas have no-trade clauses and appear unlikely to waive them, but veteran starters Erick Fedde and Steven Matz are both pending free agents who lack no-trade protection. Both players reportedly received interest from rival clubs earlier this offseason, and while the Cardinals at the time appeared focused on dealing Arenado rather than from the rotation, the unlikelihood of an Arenado trade could change that calculus.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored for Front Office subscribers earlier this week, there are a number of teams around the league that could still use starting pitching help. Fedde in particular could likely bring back an enticing return as a relatively affordable rental starter who posted a 3.30 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 31 starts last year. The right-hander will make just $7.5MM in 2025, a sum that virtually any team could afford even during this late stage of the offseason. Matz is less likely to bring back significant talent in return given his up-and-down trajectory over the years, but shedding some of his $12MM salary for 2025 would allow the Cardinals to add a veteran reliever to set up for closer Ryan Helsley or even take on a bit more money to try and facilitate the Arenado deal with a cash-strapped club like the Yankees. (The Cardinals’ reluctance with regard to trading Helsley, also an impending free agent, is another curious decision, as highlighted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco last month.)

In addition to the prospects and/or salary relief trading a veteran starter could net, the Cardinals would also more clearly make way for their young arms to get work at the big league level. Top prospect Tink Hence has yet to make his Triple-A debut but dominated Double-A last year and should be on the big league radar later this year. In the meantime, Michael McGreevy is already knocking on the door of the majors after posting a 1.96 ERA in 23 innings as a starter for the club last year. Sem Robberse, Quinn Mathews and Tekoah Roby are among the potential starting options the Cardinals have at their disposal that don’t currently have a path to major league starts.

On the other hand, none of those options has proven himself in the majors. With Arenado now seemingly unlikely to move, the Cardinals may feel they’re better off trying to contend this year, at least in the first half when they still have the opportunity to pivot back towards selling at the trade deadline. After all, the Cardinals won 83 games last year despite their flawed roster, and a healthy season from Contreras, better batted ball luck from Gray, and a resurgence from Arenado could allow them to contend in an NL Central division that still looks relatively soft even after teams like the Cubs and Reds have made notable moves.

It’s also worth noting that, even without trading Arenado or a starter, the club has made at least some room for a legitimate youth movement to take place. Kicking Willson Contreras over to first base has opened up the catcher position for youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, while the departures of Gibson and Lance Lynn from the rotation have opened up a spot for Andre Pallante after he impressed in a rotation role last year. Other players like Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker figure to get more consistent playing time in 2025, and all it takes is an injury or two to get players like Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott II more regular playing time in the majors as well.

With Opening Day just six weeks away, how do MLBTR readers think the Cardinals should proceed? Should they double down on their youth movement and deal a starter like Fedde or Matz to salvage their offseason of inaction, or should they hold onto their veteran rotation pieces through the early days of the season in hopes that internal improvements could make them a legitimate contender? Have your say in the poll below:

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