MLBTR Polls

Despite the fact that we're now into February, ten of MLBTR's Top 50 free agents remain free agents, as they've yet to find a contract that meets their desires this offseason. The market includes three of the market's top bats and seven pitchers — six starters and one closer coming off a pair of elite seasons.

Ervin Santana, A.J. Burnett, Ubaldo Jimenez, Stephen Drew, Nelson Cruz, Kendrys Morales, Bronson Arroyo, Fernando Rodney, Suk-Min Yoon and Paul Maholm have yet to sign contracts. Of the group, it's interesting to note that three of the seven are Scott Boras clients — Drew, Morales and Yoon — and Boras is no stranger to signing large deals late in the offseason.

There are currently more obvious fits for most of the free agent pitchers than there are the hitters; few teams are in desperate need of a starting shortstop, and the teams that could use additional power in their lineup aren't high on the defensive limitations of Cruz and Morales. Also of note is that five of remaining Top 50 — Santana, Jimenez, Drew, Cruz and Morales — rejected qualifying offers and would therefore require forfeiture a draft pick in order to sign.

Free agent deals can materialize very quickly at this juncture of the offseason, as we saw last week in deals for Top 50 free agents such as Matt Garza and Jason Hammel. Cruz and Rodney have both been connected to the Mariners as of late, while Drew has been connected to both the Mets and Red Sox for much of the offseason. Santana, Jimenez, Arroyo and Burnett have been linked to numerous teams, particularly since Burnett announced that he may pitch for a team other than Pittsburgh in 2014. Yoon held a workout seen by the Giants and Orioles recently and has also been connected to the Twins and Red Sox. Maholm has been linked to the Rangers (following Derek Holland's injury) and Angels in recent weeks. While each has seen his fair share of rumors (some more than others), each is without a job as many teams' pitchers and catchers are preparing to report to Spring Training.

As baseball fans around the world mark the end of 2013, let's take one more look back before plowing ahead to 2014. As always, all manner of different MLB transactions went down this past year, and each and every one was documented by MLB Trade Rumors. Signings, extensions, trades, and more — every move took place in a different context and was subjected to public scrutiny. 

So, now that we have the benefit of looking back at the year as a whole, which single move was the best, considering the particular situation and what we now know? Was it a wise extension, a nifty trade, or a big free agent signing? I browsed through the MLBTR Transaction Tracker and came up with a (highly subjective) list of my favorite moves over the past year. Though the some moves have already begun to bear fruit, while others await a new season, each still has years to go until it can be evaluated in its entirety. Nevertheless, I think it will be interesting to see how MLBTR readers view things.

Here are the nine candidates I chose, along with a brief synopsis of the reasons why they merit consideration. (Needless to say, feel free to disagree with my choices in the comments.)

Extensions

• White Sox extend LHP Chris Sale for five years, $32.5MM — Chicago locked up a young ace-caliber pitcher for the same type of contract that has been used to secure other good young arms. But Sale may be the best of the bunch, and he signed his deal just before new money and spending patterns may have broken the mold of young starter extensions. 

• Brewers extend CF Carlos Gomez for three years, $24MM — Talk about buying low. Milwaukee locked up Gomez for his first three free agent-eligible seasons, right before the center fielder broke out with a stellar 8.4 rWAR campaign. While I won't proffer a guess as to what he'd ultimately have commanded in free agency this offseason, I think it is safe to say it would be multiples of his actual deal.

• Diamondbacks extend 1B Paul Goldschmidt five years, $32MM — This one does not require much explanation. Goldschmidt signed his extension with Arizona after a very promising run in his first season of full-time action. Then, he nearly won an MVP award.

• Red Sox extend 2B Dustin Pedroia for eight years, $110MM — The heart of the Sox has been worth at least three wins above replacement in every season he has seen regular action (and even reached that mark in the 75 games he played in 2010). His $13.75MM average annual value looks quite affordable compared to the $24MM guaranteed on average annually to Robinson Cano for the next decade.

Trades

• Nationals acquire RHP Doug Fister for LHP Robbie Ray, IF Steve Lombardozzi, and LHP Ian Krol — Fister has been one of the best ten pitchers in the game over the last three years, by fWAR, and has two seasons of reasonably-priced arbitration eligibility still to come. Yet the Nats were able to bring him in for a good-but-not-great prospect and two players with seemingly limited ceilings.

• Tigers acquire SS Jose Iglesias for OF Avisail Garcia — Even if you think that this was an even-value deal, it must be counted as a win for Detroit. Why? Just look at the haul that Matt Garza brought to serve as a short-term rental. GM Dave Dombrowski not only filled a sudden and unexpected hole during a key part of the season, but managed to adapt to Jhonny Peralta's suspension in a way that arguably enhanced the club's long-term health as well.

• Braves acquire LF Justin Upton and 3B Chris Johnson for UT Martin Prado, RHP Randall Delgado, SS Nick Ahmed, RHP Zeke Spruill, and 1B Brandon Drury — The signature trade of the 2013 offseason was a coup for Atlanta, in ways expected and not. Upton provided a strong season, even if he did not keep up his torrid start over the course of the year. But the real stunner was the huge campaign from Johnson; he was more productive than Prado, the main piece that the Braves gave up.

Signings

• Red Sox sign 1B Mike Napoli for one year, $5MM — While the limited guarantee came only after Napoli's original three-year deal fell apart over health concerns, GM Ben Cherington still deserves kudos for holding together the relationship. Even as he limited the club's exposure with a minimal $5MM promise, Cherington got his man into Fenway and held onto the upside. Needless to say, it worked out well for Boston, which was happy to pay Napoli his $8MM in earned incentives (and to lock him up to another seemingly solid deal for the club).

• Yankees sign C Brian McCann for five years, $85MM — No, we don't know how this deal will turn out. And yes, there have been other big-money signings to consider. But, to me at least, this contract stands out amongst recent major free agent signings for its value potential. Not only does McCann take over a spot that had been filled essentially at replacement level, but the limited length of the deal lowers the risk compared to other top-flight players that have signed. And it comes with upside, as the slugging lefty could reach new heights at Yankee Stadium and can take plenty of at-bats at DH to preserve his legs.

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So, which move do you think was the best of 2013? (Response order will be randomized.)

The contracts signed by Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo have topped even some of the more aggressive projections from the onset of the offseason. Cano inked a ten-year, $240MM contract with the Mariners. Ellsbury became the latest mega-deal for the Yankees when he signed for $153MM over seven years. And though Choo reportedly turned down $140MM from the Yankees, he still found himself a seven-year, $130MM payday from the Rangers.

Each player comes with some concerns. Choo's defensive skills have slipped in recent years (though most still think he can be a solid defender at an outfield corner), and he struggles against left-handed pitching. Ellsbury's game is tied largely to his speed — an asset that may deteriorate with age. He has just one season of elite power numbers under his belt. Cano is one of the game's best all-around players, but as such, he commanded the third-largest deal in baseball history and required an additional three guaranteed years over Choo and Ellsbury at a higher annual salary.

Each of these contracts comes with an enormous amount of risk, but such is the case when pursuing free agents of this nature. Technically, Brian McCann's contract could hit $100MM if his sixth-year option vests, but I elected not to include him for this poll because he wasn't guaranteed a nine-figure payday. That being said…

MLBTR's Tim Dierkes kicked off the offseason by providing our Top 50 list of 2014 free agents (along with predictions for where each would sign). Since that time, 35 of the 50 free agents have come off the board, including each of the top four. Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo and Brian McCann have all found new homes, leaving recently posted Masahiro Tanaka as the top remaining free agent from MLBTR's Top 50.

The remaining list features a mix of starting pitchers, infielders, outfielders and relievers, each of whom should still be able to add considerable value to a club. However, while most agreed that some combination of Cano, Ellsbury, Choo and McCann were the top four names on this year's market, opinions began to differ significantly after that point. In particular, there's a split as to which of Tanaka, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza is the best bet among free agent pitchers. Tanaka will almost certainly sign the largest contract, but that's largely due to his age (25) and his lack of draft pick compensation. Does that mean he's a better pitcher than the others? That's up for debate.

With all that said, let's open this up to MLBTR readership. Based purely on talent and expected contribution to a team, rank the remnants of our initial Top 50 list below.

Click here to see the results as they come in (apologies for including the wrong link initially — results should be working properly at this time).