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MLBTR Poll: Where Will Edwin Encarnacion End Up?

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With negotiations seemingly taking place in earnest for free-agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, let’s see where the MLBTR readership sees things heading. These are the reported suitors that are still trying to land him (in alphabetical order):

Astros: Houston long seemed like a clear possibility, but various other moves made a big strike for Encarnacion appear unlikely. But the ’Stros could still clear the way for a big bat, especially if the team ends up dealing other pieces to add a starter.

Athletics: A true dark horse, the A’s have always had the need for a big bat, but were a questionable fit in terms of budget. Just how high Oakland is willing to bid isn’t known, but it now seems clear that the team is firmly in the hunt.

Blue Jays: The incumbent Jays are said to be fading as a destination, but Encarnacion’s camp has long suggested its his preference to stay in Toronto, and it’s still possible that he could fit.

Indians: Fresh off a World Series appearance, Cleveland has a bit more budget flexibility than usual and could certainly stand to add a significant hitter to the middle of its order. We’ve heard varying suggestions of the organization’s willingness to spend, but the latest indication is that the Indians are pushing to land EE.

Rangers: Texas remains arguably the best fit on paper, even if its front office has repeatedly poured cold water on the likelihood of such a big signing for the past several weeks.

Other: Encarnacion’s agent, Paul Kinzer, says that there are at least six teams to have made three or four-year offers, noting that National League clubs have been involved as well. The Rockies and Cardinals appear to be the most sensible N.L. possibilities, with Colorado acknowledging that it’s at least monitoring the market and reports suggesting that St. Louis may take a look as well.

While at least five American League teams are now known to be in pursuit, it’s imaginable that others, too, have entered the bidding (or, perhaps, still will). The Mariners, Orioles, and Red Sox are among the organizations that could conceivably still be involved (though Boston has quite recently downplayed that possibility).

So, now’s the time to enter your bets: which team is most likely to land the best remaining free agent? (Order randomized; link for app users.)

Who Will Sign Edwin Encarnacion?
Indians 30.29% (6,072 votes)
Other 23.06% (4,622 votes)
Rangers 20.65% (4,139 votes)
Blue Jays 14.34% (2,874 votes)
Astros 6.85% (1,374 votes)
Athletics 4.80% (963 votes)
Total Votes: 20,044

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Mark Trumbo?

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Free agent first baseman/outfielder Mark Trumbo’s market may have taken a notable hit Saturday when the Orioles, with whom he spent last season, rescinded their offer to the slugger after negotiations stalled. Baltimore’s proposal was reportedly worth in the neighborhood of $52MM over four years and didn’t include a no-trade clause. The soon-to-be 31-year-old Trumbo is seeking upward of $70MM and full no-trade rights after launching a major league-leading 47 home runs in 2016. While no team has been willing to approach Trumbo’s demands – not to the media’s knowledge, anyway – there hasn’t been a shortage of clubs that have shown interest in him this offseason.

Mark Trumbo

Wherever Trumbo plays next season, it seems unlikely he’ll spend most of his time in the outfield again. Trumbo served as primarily a right fielder last season, but the results were uninspiring (minus-9 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-5.9 Ultimate Zone Rating) and subtracted value from the .256/.316/.533 batting line he put together in 667 plate appearances. For his part, Trumbo realizes he’s better suited as a first baseman, where the former Angel, Diamondback and Mariner has played the plurality of his career. The Orioles already have an entrenched solution at first in Chris Davis and, if they are able to work out a deal with Trumbo, would want him back as mainly a designated hitter, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

If Trumbo does add the Orioles to his list of ex-employers, it seems the Rockies could end up as his next team. As they’re currently built, the Rockies don’t have room for a first baseman. Nevertheless, they’re still in on Trumbo even after signing Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70MM contract, per Kubatko. Inking Trumbo would enable the Rockies to send Desmond to the outfield, where he played in Texas last season and where he’d be more valuable, and perhaps pave the way for the team to trade an excess outfielder (Charlie Blackmon or Carlos Gonzalez) for a starting pitcher. Having already given up their first-round pick in 2017 to sign Desmond, the Rockies would only have to surrender a second-rounder to bring the powerful Trumbo – who rejected the Orioles’ qualifying offer – to the hitters’ paradise known as Coors Field.

Aside from the Orioles and Rockies, the Cardinals, Indians, Rangers and Mariners have all been connected to Trumbo in recent weeks. As is the case with the Rockies, the Cardinals wouldn’t have the option of deploying Trumbo at DH because they’re in the National League. They also wouldn’t lose a first-rounder to sign Trumbo, having already parted with their top selection in 2017 to pick up center fielder Dexter Fowler in free agency. The Cards aren’t exactly hard up for infielders, though, which is one reason they’re planning to shift Matt Carpenter to first on a full-time basis. If Trumbo enters the fray, Carpenter would presumably head back to the hot corner. That would turn $10MM third baseman Jhonny Peralta into either an expensive reserve or a trade chip and make first baseman Matt Adams all the more superfluous.

The Indians and Rangers each have obvious needs at first base/DH, though Texas is an unlikely landing spot if you’re to believe president and general manager Jon Daniels that he’d rather find a solution from within than splurge on a free agent. On the other hand, the AL champion Indians are fresh off a deep playoff run – one that proved highly beneficial to their financial situation – and could perhaps turn to Trumbo as a replacement for free agent Mike Napoli and a presumably less expensive (and less effective) alternative to Edwin Encarnacion.

Like Cleveland and Texas, Seattle would have to sacrifice a first-rounder to sign Trumbo. GM Jerry Dipoto suggested last month that he was content with his club’s cast of position players, but he quickly reversed course by entering talks with Trumbo’s camp and placing outfielder Seth Smith on the block. Aside from Nelson Cruz, who’s clearly more cut out to DH, Smith is the Mariners’ most established corner outfield bat. Dealing him would leave the M’s with only unproven options in Mitch Haniger, Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia. Trumbo could factor in as both a corner outfielder (again, not ideal) or a first basemen, then, as the Mariners are set to rely on a tandem of Dan Vogelbach and Danny Valencia at the latter spot. Of course, not only would signing with the Mariners bring about Trumbo’s second stint in Seattle, but it would reunite him with Dipoto. Notably, Dipoto traded Trumbo away when he was the Angels’ GM in 2013.

While reports suggest Trumbo will join one of the aforementioned clubs sometime in the coming months, there’s also the possibility of a mystery team swooping in and landing him. Is there an unknown suitor out there that you think is going to sign Trumbo, or will one of the franchises listed above ultimately add him to its lineup?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Who will sign Mark Trumbo?
Orioles 26.63% (5,090 votes)
Mystery team 19.60% (3,747 votes)
Rockies 18.92% (3,617 votes)
Cardinals 11.59% (2,215 votes)
Indians 9.71% (1,857 votes)
Rangers 7.53% (1,440 votes)
Mariners 6.02% (1,151 votes)
Total Votes: 19,117

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Which Big Winter Meetings Signing Was The Best?

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The Winter Meetings saw a pair of high-profile trades, but also four free agent signings in excess of $60MM. Of the four teams to open their checkbooks, which made the best move?

Aroldis Chapman, five years, $86MM, Yankees. The Yankees brought back their former closer to rejoin Dellin Betances to form perhaps the best setup/closer tandems in baseball. There’s no questioning Chapman’s dominance, and a lefty with three-digit heat and a 15.5 K/9 is a unique asset indeed. But the Yankees also gave Chapman an opt-out after three years, one that presumably won’t require him to forgo his $11MM signing bonus. And they gave him a no-trade clause through the first three seasons as well, plus a limited no-trade through the last two. As Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues pointed out after the deal, it’s possible the opt-out will arrive just as the Yankees have assembled their best team in years. Then there’s also Chapman’s troubling personal history.

Dexter Fowler, five years, $82.5MM, Cardinals. The Cardinals filled their center field vacancy with Fowler, who batted .276/.393/.447 last season with the Cubs. In so doing, the Cardinals also avoided a trade market that’s been ugly for buyers, as the Nationals’ trade for Adam Eaton perhaps demonstrated. The Cards are buying Fowler’s age-31 through -35 seasons, years in which an athletic player might well remain productive. They did give up the 19th overall pick in the draft with the signing, though, and even the Cardinals have characterized the dollar figure required to land Fowler as “over the top.”

Ian Desmond, five years, $70MM, Rockies. In what was surely the most surprising of the four signings, the Rockies landed a veteran leader who reinvented himself as an outfielder in an excellent comeback season in Texas. Desmond’s defensive flexibility will give the Rockies options as they build their team for the years ahead, and his 20-homer offense should benefit from Coors Field. The Rockies did, however, give up the first protected pick of the draft — No. 11 overall — to make the signing, costing the team eight-figure value not already included in the contract. And the team didn’t look like a contender in 2016 and might or might not be one in 2017, raising questions about whether now was the right time for them to pursue this kind of veteran talent.

Mark Melancon, four years, $62MM, Giants. The Giants were expected to pursue a closer, and they dodged higher-dollar targets like Chapman or Kenley Jansen (and the loss of a draft pick Jansen would require) to sign the 31-year-old Melancon. Melancon’s results in the last four seasons are indisputably terrific — the highest ERA he’s had in that time has been 2.23. He also has terrific control (with a 1.5 BB/9 last season) and routinely posts great ground-ball numbers (54.2% last year). He doesn’t have a typical profile for a dominant closer, however, with only modest velocity (91.8 MPH average fastball velocity last year, down about a mile from 2013) and a strikeout rate that’s only a bit more than half of Chapman’s. Long-term reliever contracts have historically been dicey propositions, and it remains to be seen if Melancon can dodge the trends. Melancon’s deal also contains considerable value not included in the $62MM total in the form of a no-trade clause and an opt-out after the first two years.

What do you think? Which team’s new contract is the best of the four?

Poll: Will Blue Jays Re-Sign Edwin Encarnacion?

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When the Blue Jays signed designated hitter Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33MM contract last week, it appeared free agent Edwin Encarnacion’s illustrious tenure with the franchise was all but over. Encarnacion is coming off back-to-back campaigns in which he spent more time at DH than first base, after all, and the soon-to-be 34-year-old will likely need to continue as a bat-first option as he keeps aging.

[RELATED: Encarnacion’s Free Agent Profile]

Although having two expensive DH types on a roster isn’t ideal, the Blue Jays are nonetheless interested in re-signing Encarnacion, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported earlier this week. General manager Ross Atkins indicated after signing Morales that he could see a “good deal” of time in the field, which has been a rare occurrence over the past couple seasons, and that would seem to open the door to the possibility of him and Encarnacion coexisting.

Edwin Encarnacion

If necessary, the Blue Jays appear prepared to adjust to having Morales and Encarnacion divvy up time between DH and first, but it’ll obviously be a moot point if they’re unable to re-sign the latter. Before Toronto locked up Morales, it made a four-year offer in the neighborhood of $80MM to Encarnacion, who unsurprisingly rejected it.  As arguably the premier hitter on the open market, Encarnacion seems like a shoo-in to exceed that dollar figure. MLBTR projects a $92MM deal for Encarnacion, though an accord worth upward of $100MM doesn’t seem out of the question with the the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Astros and some National League teams reportedly chasing him.

Encarnacion has been a spectacular hitter since his 2012 breakout, having slashed .272/.367/.544 in 3,133 plate appearances. He also ranks second in the majors in home runs (193) and third in ISO (.273) over that five-year span, and has further impressed with a 12.5 percent walk rate against a 15.1 percent strikeout mark. Encarnacion is now coming off a year in which he hit a career-high-tying 42 homers and appeared in a personal-best 160 regular-season games, but his still-excellent .263/.357/.529 slash stands as his least productive line during his half-decade run as an elite offensive weapon.

Despite his tremendous output over the past several seasons, the fact that Encarnacion’s an aging, one-dimensional player could significantly weaken his value in the coming years and make his deal an albatross down the line, as both Dave Cameron and Craig Edwards of FanGraphs wrote earlier this month. The Blue Jays’ front office is likely mindful of the risks that would accompany re-signing Encarnacion, though losing him and replacing him with the likes of Morales and first baseman Justin Smoak (and perhaps an outside acquisition) would probably damage the team’s short-term chances on the heels of back-to-back playoff seasons.

With Encarnacion having rejected a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, they’ll receive a first-round pick if he signs elsewhere, so they’re in position to walk away with a potentially useful long-term asset if the slugger departs. The question is: Will he leave Toronto?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Will Edwin Encarnacion re-sign with the Blue Jays?
No 65.14% (12,640 votes)
Yes 34.86% (6,765 votes)
Total Votes: 19,405

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Which Team Won The Jean Segura / Taijuan Walker Trade?

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On Wednesday, the Diamondbacks and Mariners pulled off a big five-player deal involving shortstop Jean Segura and starting pitcher Taijuan Walker. We already reviewed the trade here and here, and collected a pair of reactions to the deal here. This time, though, we want to know what you think. Based on what we know right now, which team won the trade?

The case for the Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks received four years of control for Walker and five for Ketel Marte, a young shortstop who struggled last season but held his own in the big leagues in 2015 as a 21-year-old. Segura, in contrast, only has two years of control remaining (although the other two players they gave up, Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis, both have six).

Segura batted .319/.368/.499 in a spectacular 2016 campaign, but struggled to stay above replacement level in either of the two previous seasons, and had a .353 batting average on balls in play in 2016 that was out of step with his career norms. At least so far, 2016 looks like Segura’s career year, and the Diamondbacks’ decision to deal him looks like selling high. The Diamondbacks didn’t look good enough to make the playoffs in 2017, so they did well to get younger and acquire more years of team control in exchange for a player who likely wouldn’t have been with them by 2019 anyway.

Walker once rated as one of baseball’s best prospects, and while he hasn’t lived up to that billing so far, he’s still just 24, and his 2016 numbers (4.22 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 93.9-MPH average fastball velocity) suggest he still has upside, meaning the Diamondbacks might be buying low on a starter who might still have front-of-the-rotation potential. That sort of player is hard to find, and it’s even harder than usual this year given the weak free agent market for pitching. If Walker can improve, or if Marte can reemerge as a capable regular, the Diamondbacks will likely end up very happy with their end of the deal.

The case for the Mariners: If Segura can maintain anything resembling his 2016 level of production, he and Robinson Cano could give Seattle one of baseball’s most productive middle infields over the next two seasons. Segura’s 20 home runs, .319 average and 33 stolen bases last season were all outstanding, leading to an excellent 5.0 fWAR. Numbers like those would give the Mariners a big jump on the AL West in a season in which they hope to contend.

Also, the righty-hitting Haniger could help the Mariners’ outfield immediately — the 25-year-old struggled somewhat in 2016 in his first chance against big-league pitching, but he dominated Triple-A and next year could serve as an effective complement to lefties Seth Smith and Ben Gamel in the corners. And while third piece Curtis didn’t pitch well in the Majors in 2016 and doesn’t profile as a future closer, his strong performances in the minors suggest he could eventually become a good left-handed relief option.

The Mariners clearly gave up two interesting young players, but ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider only) argues that Walker’s delivery changes, his lesser command and the heavy reliance on his fastball make him a less inspiring talent than he was as a prospect. As for Marte, his future in the big leagues is far from assured after a season in which he played poor defense and struck out more than four times as much as he walked.

So what do you think? Who fared better in this deal, the Diamondbacks or the Mariners?

Poll: Early Free Agent Starting Pitching Contracts

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This year’s free agent market has already provided a steady trickle of deals, with many involving short-term arrangements for starting pitching. Bigger contracts are yet to come, but those already handed out have committed fairly large sums, albeit on limited terms.

With many of these deals landing in a similar range, it’s interesting to compare. Here are the rotation pieces, who happen all to be right-handers, who have received major league pacts thus far (from smallest to largest in terms of total dollars):

Jesse Chavez, Angels, $5.75MM over one year (plus incentives): Chavez worked exclusively in a relief capacity last year, but he started quite a bit in 2014 and 2015 and Los Angeles views him as a part of their rotation for 2017. For a team in need of sturdy innings, the 33-year-old brings the promise of durability and palatable results at a reasonable price.

R.A. Dickey, Braves, $8MM over one year (plus 2018 club option): A similar calculus was at play with Dickey, whose knuckleball makes him a solid bet to eat up a lot of frames despite the fact that he’s already 42 years old. Though he’ll cost a bit more than Chavez, Dickey also arguably comes with greater upside, and the organization was able to take advantage of Atlanta’s proximity to the righty’s Nashville home to land him at a budget-friendly amount.

Andrew Cashner, Rangers, $10MM over one year: There’s much more variability, perhaps, baked into the price paid for Cashner, who only just turned 30 and still has a power arsenal at his disposal. The results haven’t been there in either of the last two years, and health questions persist, but Cashner is only two years removed from a high-quality campaign in which he looked like a top-of-the-rotation arm.

Bartolo Colon, Braves, $12.5MM over one year: Atlanta doubled down on aging starters, following up the Dickey signing with the even-older Colon, who’ll turn 44 before the season begins. If he was 15 years younger, Colon’s four-year platform — over which he averaged 195 frames of 3.59 ERA pitching — might well have made him the biggest earner on this winter’s market. Instead, it garnered him a strong payday but only a single-season commitment.

Charlie Morton, Astros, $14MM over two years: The only starter to score a multi-year promise, Morton only made four starts in 2016 — though that was due to a hamstring injury, not a more worrisome arm problem. He did show a fair bit of promise early last year (including a velocity bump), and carries a 3.96 ERA with strong groundball results (58.2%) over his last five campaigns, but Morton has only twice topped 25 starts and 150 innings in a single season.

Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies, $17.2MM over one year (accepted qualifying offer): Most had Hellickson penciled in to reject the QO and pursue a rather sizable, reasonably lengthy contract on the open market. After all, he’s yet to turn 30 and just turned in 189 frames of 3.71 ERA pitching. Instead, he opted for the sure thing, and the Phillies will pay a rather hefty single-season rate a pitcher who had endured his fair share of struggles prior to his quality 2016 season.

All of the teams listed above were looking to fill a rotation spot without mucking up their future balance sheets, and sought some blend of upside and dependability. So, the question for the MLBTR readership is a straightforward one: which of these contracts provides the best value to the signing organization?

Best Early Free Agent Rotation Deal?
Bartolo Colon Signs With Braves 33.29% (4,164 votes)
Andrew Cashner Signs With Rangers 17.40% (2,177 votes)
Jeremy Hellickson Takes Phillies Qualifying Offer 17.20% (2,151 votes)
R.A. Dickey Signs With Braves 15.46% (1,934 votes)
Charlie Morton Signs With Astros 9.54% (1,193 votes)
Jesse Chavez Signs With Angels 7.11% (890 votes)
Total Votes: 12,509

Poll: Will Yoenis Cespedes Re-Sign With Mets?

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In perhaps the least surprising development of the young offseason, star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes officially opted out of the two years and $47.5MM remaining on his contract with the Mets and become a free agent Saturday. One reason Cespedes chose to re-sign with New York on a three-year, $75MM deal last offseason was its willingness to give him a three-day opt-out window after the 2016 World Series. Now, having taken advantage of that exit clause, Cespedes is back on the market as arguably the top player available.

Yoenis Cespedes

In an underwhelming free agent class, the 31-year-old Cespedes likely stands the best chance of landing a nine-figure accord prior to next season. Cespedes reportedly could have inked a five-year, $110MM contract with the Nationals last winter, but their offer came with a decade of heavily deferred payments that would have reduced the present-day value of the deal to $77MM. Back then, Cespedes was part of a class that featured seven players who signed contracts ranging from $110MM to $217MM in total value. Two of those standouts, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton, were fellow outfielders.

Cespedes won’t encounter competition along the lines of Heyward and Upton this year, which should help his cause in securing the highest-paying deal of the winter after he slashed .280/.354/.530 with 31 home runs in 543 plate appearances in 2016. That was the third excellent offensive season in the five-year major league career of Cespedes, a lifetime .272/.325/.494 hitter who has accounted for 18.6 fWAR and 18.7 bWAR in a combined 2,978 PAs with the Athletics, Red Sox, Tigers and Mets.

Having already played for four teams in a half-decade, the Cuban emigree has been a nomad since signing with Oakland in 2012. If Cespedes receives the type of deal he desires in the next few months, his days of switching uniforms should be over – at least for a while. Of course, now the question is whether he’ll remain in Queens or head to his fifth major league destination. Cespedes hopes to stay with the Mets, who acquired him from the Tigers prior to the 2015 trade deadline, but New York hadn’t opened contract talks with him as of Wednesday and once again doesn’t want to exceed three years on a contract. We’ll find out soon enough whether that’s unrealistic on the part of the Mets. In the meantime, they’ll tender Cespedes a qualifying offer by Monday’s deadline in order to receive a first-round pick as compensation if he signs elsewhere.

Ideally for the Mets (and for the player, it seems), they’ll re-up Cespedes to continue serving as the nucleus of their lineup. But considering they’re wary of engaging in a bidding war, it’s possible we’ve seen the last of Cespedes in a Mets uniform. How do you expect free agency to play out for him?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Will Yoenis Cespedes re-sign with the Mets?
No 67.82% (8,976 votes)
Yes 32.18% (4,259 votes)
Total Votes: 13,235

 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Should The Rockies Trade An Outfielder?

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In addressing the three biggest needs for the Rockies heading into the offseason, I advocated that the team trade away Carlos Gonzalez and his hefty $20MM salary. You can read the full reasoning here, but it boils down to the fact that he’s expensive and isn’t as necessary to the organization given its other left-handed-hitting options and many other needs. The emergence of David Dahl gives the Rox three southpaw-swinging outfielders, and it’s probably sub-optimal to have so many resources tied up in such players.

Still, there’s an argument to be made that Colorado ought instead to pursue deals involving another player. Charlie Blackmon’s monster 2016 season and two affordable years of control make him a highly appealing piece, especially with numerous rival organizations in the market for a center fielder. Of course, he’s also the Rockies’ primary option up the middle, though there are some alternative strategies.

The club could conceivably pair Gerardo Parra with a cheaper right-handed-hitting bat in center. Free agents such as Rajai Davis, Austin Jackson, Peter Bourjos, and Drew Stubbs should all be available on short-term deals. If trusting Parra up the middle isn’t desirable, Jon Jay or Michael Bourn could fill that role. Colorado could even provide a highly appealing bounceback locale for Carlos Gomez, though he’ll likely cost nearly as much as Gonzalez.

Parra himself could also be moved, though that would involve eating some salary. The Rockies owe him another $19.5MM over two years, including the buyout on a 2019 option. That’s a reasonable-enough commitment for the Parra of old, but he posted a 65 OPS+ in an injury-marred 2016 — which followed up a disappointing second-half run with the Orioles in 2015.

Dahl, meanwhile, only debuted last year, and seems much more likely to represent a foundational piece in Colorado than trade fodder. He spent most of his time in the minors in center field, and appeared a few times there last year, so could potentially step in for Blackmon rather than occupying a corner spot. Certainly, trading him now wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense for a team with limited willingness to spend. His development, following numerous other success stories on the position player side, demonstrates that the Rockies may be well-situated to ship out position players who are closer to free agency in exchange for pitching, as they did last year with Corey Dickerson. The team has struggled to attract free agent arms (or, at least in the past, to develop their own) even as they churn out quality bats.

Dealing Gonzalez or Blackmon would hold out the promise not only of opening some salary, but also of bringing back some interesting pieces in return. The Rockies are always hunting for pitching, of course. Even if the team is in better shape in the rotation than it has been in years, there’s room to add there. And the bullpen remains an area of concern. Plus, Colorado has needs behind the plate and at first base that could be addressed.

So, let’s put it to a vote … should the Rockies pursue a trade of an outfielder, and if so which one? (Link for mobile users.)

Should The Rockies Trade An Outfielder?
It's time to trade CarGo 48.67% (2,945 votes)
Cash in Blackmon 29.20% (1,767 votes)
Cut bait on Parra 15.70% (950 votes)
Nah, keep this trio and pursue alternative strategies 6.43% (389 votes)
Total Votes: 6,051

MLBTR Poll: Top Prospect Heading Into 2017

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It’s always interesting to see who is tabbed as the game’s next great prospect. Some make it, others don’t, but the number one prospect tag remains a nice prize for a pre-MLB player. There’s no clear candidate for that lofty position heading into the 2017 season, so it’s particularly interesting to see where the MLBTR readership sees things heading.

Prospect eligibility is an essentially arbitrary matter, but we’ll draw the line at 100 plate appearances or 50 innings pitched. That takes players like Trea Turner, Andrew Benintendi, Julio Urias, Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Orlando Arcia, Joey Gallo, Jose Berrios, and David Dahl out of consideration for our purposes. Many or all of them have largely earned MLB spots for 2017 regardless.

As a guide in putting together a list of candidates, I’ve drawn from the most recent rankings of MLB.com, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus. There’s a range of opinion, and they also haven’t been updated to reflect late-season observations.

It may be a shade premature to assess the top prospect, so you can consider this something of a predictive undertaking — which is what prospects are all about anyway. Here are the candidates for the poll:

  • Yoan Moncada, INF, Red Sox — Moncada has all the tools, and had a highly impressive year in the minors in 2016. He draws walks, but also has plenty of swing and miss — which was on display in his brief MLB cameo (12 strikeouts in 20 plate appearances).
  • J.P. Crawford, SS, Phillies — A premium defender at shortstop and reputedly polished hitter, Crawford holds out the promise of being an everyday mainstay in Philly even though he doesn’t figure to post massive home run or stolen base tallies. Crawford still needs to master Triple-A and is coming off of a minor knee surgery.
  • Lucas Giolito, SP, Nationals — There have been some ups and downs for the big righty, who struggled rather notably in 21 1/3 major league frames last year. But he’s just 22, turned in 115 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA pitching with 9.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in the minors last year, and has the kind of arsenal that leaves prospect hounds tabbing him for a limitless ceiling.
  • Brendan Rodgers, SS, Rockies — The least-experienced players in this stratosphere, Rodgers showed immense potential at the Class A level last year in his first full season of pro ball. The 20-year-old slashed .281/.342/.480 with 19 home runs over 491 plate appearances.
  • Alex Reyes, SP, Cardinals — Reyes didn’t produce great results at Triple-A last year, continuing to mix high strikeout rates with high walk rates, but exploded in 46 MLB frames. He continued to show questionable command, but racked up 52 strikeouts and allowed just eight earned runs on 33 hits.
  • Tyler Glasnow, SP, Pirates — Another power starter whose command is the major question, Glasnow was unhittable in the upper minors (69 knocks in 116 2/3 innings). He showed both the good and the bad in 23 1/3 big league innings, with 11 earned runs crossing and a 24:13 K/BB ratio.
  • Austin Meadows, OF, Pirates — The 21-year-old stalled out a bit at the highest level of the minors after dominating at Double-A, but delivered 48 extra-base hits over 352 plate appearances on the year. Just 21 years old, Meadows could soon push the Bucs to make some difficult decisions in their outfield.
  • Amed Rosario, SS, Mets — Rosario reached Double-A in the middle of 2016 at just 20 years of age, and delivered a .341/.392/.481 slash over 237 plate appearances — though his .433 BABIP indicated both hard contact and some good fortune. Like Crawford, he probably won’t ever wow with counting stats, but projects as a strong defender at a premium position who can provide useful offensive production when he reaches the majors.
  • Victor Robles, OF, Nationals — Just 19, Robles is considered a true five-tool prospect with the makeup to match. He has shot up prospect charts while climbing the system, though a hand injury slowed him and he cooled off at the High-A level. While his upside is tremendous, Robles still has yet to grow into his power potential and has yet to face polished pitching in the upper minors.
  • Other — There are a host of others who could conceivably enter the discussion. Brewers outfielder Lewis Brinson has a monster ceiling, Braves infielder Ozzie Albies could provide immense all-around value, and Padres righty Anderson Espinoza has shown huge gifts for his age — just to name a few.

Weigh in here: who’s the single best prospect in the game as 2017 beckons? (Link for app users; responses are randomized.)

Who Is Baseball's Top Prospect Heading Into 2017?
Yoan Moncada 35.12% (2,704 votes)
Alex Reyes 16.96% (1,306 votes)
Other 10.82% (833 votes)
Lucas Giolito 8.94% (688 votes)
J.P. Crawford 6.59% (507 votes)
Amed Rosario 5.90% (454 votes)
Brendan Rodgers 4.74% (365 votes)
Tyler Glasnow 4.52% (348 votes)
Austin Meadows 3.84% (296 votes)
Victor Robles 2.57% (198 votes)
Total Votes: 7,699

Should The Orioles Give Matt Wieters A Qualifying Offer?

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Forty-nine weeks ago, Matt Wieters became the second player to ever accept a qualifying offer from his team (following Colby Rasmus, who accepted a day prior). The move came as somewhat of a surprise at the time, as despite a lackluster season that was slowed by injuries, Wieters was poised to hit the market as the top available catcher. The former No. 5 overall pick and agent Scott Boras elected to instead take a one-year, $15.8MM offer, however, which afforded Wieters with the chance to further reestablish his health. While he succeeded in that effort to some extent, the 2016 season came with mixed results overall.

Matt Wieters

Wieters, 31 next May, tallied 464 plate appearances over the life of 124 games. While that’s a low total relative to his most durable years, the Orioles shielded Wieters early in the season from playing on consecutive days and were cautious in building him to the point where he would even catch on three consecutive days. Wieters did just so for the first time this past season in June, and by September he’d built up to the point that he at one point drew starts behind the plate on six consecutive days. In that regard, Wieters was able to demonstrate that he’s physically capable of handling a notable workload behind the plate — something he was unable to show in 2016 when he caught back-to-back games on just four occasions. Certainly that show of durability improves his free agent stock this winter.

On the other hand, Wieters’ overall production at the plate deteriorated this season. He saw his average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all decrease along with his walk rate, and while he improved his strikeout rate from 23.8 percent to 18.3 percent, Wieters also nearly doubled his infield-fly rate. After popping up just four times in 282 PAs last year, Wieters popped out 17 times in this year’s 464 PAs — and those infield flies are every bit as detrimental as a strikeout, as they’re effectively a wasted at-bat and a guaranteed out. Park-adjusted metrics OPS+ and wRC+ agreed last season that Wieters’ bat was roughly league average (101 — or one percent above the league average), whereas this season he was markedly below the league average (88 wRC+, 87 OPS+ or 12 and 13 percent below average, respectively). He did belt 17 home runs, but he hit just 17 doubles and overall managed a pedestrian .243/.302/.409 batting line. That’s about league average for a catcher, but as noted before, it’s a far cry from average relative to the entire league.

On the defensive side of things, Wieters threw out 35 percent of opponents trying to steal against the Orioles’ pitching staff while he was behind the plate — an encouraging outcome for a catcher that had Tommy John surgery in 2014 and dealt with elbow tendinitis last year — but he once again drew poor marks in the eyes of pitch framing metrics. Baseball Prospectus rated him as below average in that regard for the fourth consecutive season, while StatCorner.com has been giving Wieters a below-average framing grade for five straight years.

Wieters has accepted a qualifying offer once before and would bring his two-year tab with the Orioles from 2016-17 to $33MM if he received and accepted another this year. That’s certainly nothing to scoff at, but if Boras and Wieters feel that the improved durability in 2016 will lead to a multi-year deal on the open market, then they’ll surely think he can earn more. And, the fact that Wilson Ramos suffered a horribly timed knee injury that will weigh down his free-agent stock only makes Wieters look more appealing relative to the remainder of the market. In that respect, it’s easy to see why the Orioles might feel comfortable making the offer.

The other side of the coin for the O’s, though, is that they opened the 2016 season with a franchise-record $147MM payroll and currently project to have an even larger $155MM payroll next season, as Jason Martinez lays out on the Orioles’ payroll page over at Roster Resource. That figure doesn’t include Wieters at all, so penciling him in at an additional $17.2MM would cause the team’s projected payroll to balloon to $172.2MM next season before even addressing any of the other needs that face the Orioles’ roster — namely adding some rotation help and a corner outfielder. Considering the fact that Wieters has already surprised the team by accepting once before, Orioles GM Dan Duquette may not wish to make that kind of gamble a second time.

There’s an argument to be made for either side, so let’s open this one up to the public for debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Should the Orioles give Matt Wieters a qualifying offer?
No 60.94% (4,815 votes)
Yes 39.06% (3,086 votes)
Total Votes: 7,901


Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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